Speaker 1: Check it out Man Now down Man Thursday Morning, January
Speaker 1: second Tent Wow, The Beating the Book Podcast. The Playoffs
Speaker 1: are here, wild Card Weekend, Megapod, Gil Alexander with the
Speaker 1: staples of the show on my right from Circus Sports,
Speaker 1: the vice president of Operations, the Great Mike Palm. Good
Speaker 1: morning Michael, Good morning Gil, Good morning Todd. It's nice
Speaker 1: to see back on the pod after a couple of
Speaker 1: weeks off. But hopefully everybody got the best bets the
Speaker 1: last few weeks. Yeah, we did. Happy New Year to you.
Speaker 1: Happy New Year, Todd. You good. Yes, life is beautiful.
Speaker 1: It's sunny out again. It's fantastic. I have a water
Speaker 1: here and I can take a shower. Oh that's excellent.
Speaker 1: And our rotating guest on the show is not just
Speaker 1: a rotating guest for the playoffs. We only bring in
Speaker 1: the all stars. It's his second appearance of the year.
Speaker 1: Ladies and Gentlemen from esp In two's Daily Wager. And also,
Speaker 1: may I just say the host of Joe Lowan Dibbs
Speaker 1: in the Morning ninety five point seven The Game in
Speaker 1: San Francisco, Joe Fort and Ball Mega Pod staple, what's happening?
Speaker 1: I'm not a lot killed. It's great to be here.
Speaker 1: Happy New Year. I'm still trying to figure out if
Speaker 1: you're hustling me or not. I get this text mess
Speaker 1: New Year's Eve, Hey would love to have you on
Speaker 1: the Mega Pod. I'm thinking to myself, all right, this
Speaker 1: guy is clearly desperate. Everyone's turned him down, and he's
Speaker 1: hit me up during dinner on New Year's Eve. But
Speaker 1: then I get the text that says, no, no, only
Speaker 1: the all stars for the playoff podcast. So now you're
Speaker 1: tickling my you know what a little bit. I'm thinking
Speaker 1: to myself, is he being true? Is he playing with me?
Speaker 1: But either way, it's always a pleasure to be here.
Speaker 1: Thank you for the in fight. I always welcome the conversation.
Speaker 1: You are welcome, sir, and it is actually the latter.
Speaker 1: You're the first person I called. You are the first
Speaker 1: person I called. In fact, in my head, I was like,
Speaker 1: I'm doing fort and Ball wild Card and then I'm
Speaker 1: gonna have Lombardi for the divisional round. That was exactly
Speaker 1: the what was in my head. Then you're just lazy waiting.
Speaker 1: Then you're just lazy waiting that long the book yet, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's that is more accurate that you know, that's what
Speaker 1: happens you. You probably know this too, right, because you
Speaker 1: do like multiple things. And I don't know if you're
Speaker 1: the one booking on any of those platforms, but there's
Speaker 1: something that always gets where you're like, at the last minute,
Speaker 1: you're like, oh damn, I gotta do that. I forgot.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, dude. When you're in this type of business,
Speaker 1: when you're when you're when you're lucky enough to be
Speaker 1: working on different platforms, you have your day to day routine.
Speaker 1: You gotta you gotta be good with your time management
Speaker 1: and your organization, and even then there's always the one
Speaker 1: little thing you forgot to do it. It's ever major,
Speaker 1: but it's just like shoot, Holidays coming up. I totally
Speaker 1: see where you're coming from. And it's very much an
Speaker 1: honor to get to lead off before Lombardi next week.
Speaker 1: You know, me and him go way back. Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: I know you do, way back in the day. Lombardi
Speaker 1: is the best. All right, gentlemen, let's do it. Wild
Speaker 1: Card weekend. There's four games. It's very straightforward. Let's start
Speaker 1: with them in chronological order. Very strange this year where
Speaker 1: we have the two A f C games on one day,
Speaker 1: and the two NFC games on the other that doesn't
Speaker 1: usually happen, but based on time zones, that's how it
Speaker 1: shakes out. And so we start with the a f
Speaker 1: C on Saturday. These are the games that are staggered later.
Speaker 1: They start later in the day. First game four thirty
Speaker 1: five pm Eastern, kick off one thirty five pm Pacific.
Speaker 1: It's the five four game in the a f C
Speaker 1: between the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans. Texans are
Speaker 1: favored now by two and a half. It was three
Speaker 1: when it first came out. It's off the key number
Speaker 1: of three. It's two and a half total at forty four.
Speaker 1: Buffalo already had this position clinched, so they didn't have
Speaker 1: anything to play for last week. Houston didn't have anything
Speaker 1: to play for either. Uh so they're coming off really
Speaker 1: what amounts to a de facto by in both cases
Speaker 1: of all the four games. For me, this is the
Speaker 1: one that I would have guessed three when it came
Speaker 1: out three. We had we had a guessing lines this week.
Speaker 1: It's not the one that I love against. The spread
Speaker 1: is the most bettable. But I know we have some
Speaker 1: different opinions here. I know Todd, you like this game
Speaker 1: a lot. Let's start with our guest, Joe, what do
Speaker 1: you think about this game? Buffalo at Houston. Two plays
Speaker 1: on this game earlier in the week, um, I took
Speaker 1: the Bills plus three and I took the overre at
Speaker 1: forty two and a half. Now, I didn't get the
Speaker 1: best of it on the over. I think forty one
Speaker 1: and a half was out there, but both have moved
Speaker 1: in the right directions for me since that happened. The
Speaker 1: one I like more is the over in this matchup.
Speaker 1: As soon as I saw that number at forty one
Speaker 1: and a half, I just started thinking, to myself, this
Speaker 1: feels this feels really low given the matchup, and I
Speaker 1: understand that the first thought would be to look at
Speaker 1: the Bills and to say, well, you know, they don't
Speaker 1: score a lot of points, because they don't. They scored
Speaker 1: twenty one points a game at home, or they scored
Speaker 1: twenty one points a game on the road. They scored
Speaker 1: seventeen points per game at home. They're not exactly a
Speaker 1: quick strike offense. Josh Allen is the most consistent of quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: So you're gonna look at that and you're gonna realize
Speaker 1: Buffalo has got one of the better defenses in the league.
Speaker 1: And you're gonna think to yourself when it's all said
Speaker 1: and done, this is probably gonna be a grind amount
Speaker 1: of fair. But I think the one disadvantage for Buffalo
Speaker 1: a quick strike offense, It's not gonna hurt them as
Speaker 1: much here. I think they're gonna be able to move
Speaker 1: the ball. Houston defense is absolutely dreadful, absolutely dreadful this season.
Speaker 1: They are dead last in the NFL and red zone defense,
Speaker 1: dead last, and opponent yards for play thirty one an
Speaker 1: opponent third down conversions and total defense. And if you
Speaker 1: keep in mind, like I said earlier, the Builds are
Speaker 1: scoring more points on the road than they are at home. Now,
Speaker 1: I don't think that matters too much here, but they're
Speaker 1: not the type of team that goes on the road
Speaker 1: and completely struggles to move to football. Now, you look
Speaker 1: at Buffalo defense this year and you say to yourself, well,
Speaker 1: this is a great unit. If the offense is running
Speaker 1: slow and they're controlling tempo and you let the defense
Speaker 1: go out there and do their thing, this should be
Speaker 1: an under And I can understand that. But in their
Speaker 1: sixteen games this year, eleven of them came against teams
Speaker 1: that ranked twenty one or worse in yards for play.
Speaker 1: They didn't exactly play the murderers row of NFL offense.
Speaker 1: They got a lot of good matchups that put the
Speaker 1: defense in a position to make a lot of key plays.
Speaker 1: And that's about to downgrade the defense. It's just to say,
Speaker 1: look at the competition, look at the people they played
Speaker 1: this year. If we move away from the eleven games
Speaker 1: in which they played teams that ranked twenty one or
Speaker 1: worst in yards for play, that leaves us with five games.
Speaker 1: One of them was the Baltimore game, which they lost,
Speaker 1: although they played very well in that game. One of
Speaker 1: them was the Cleveland game, which they lost, and one
Speaker 1: of them was the Tennessee game, which they won, but
Speaker 1: that was with Marcus Mariotti at quarterback rather than Ryan Tannehill.
Speaker 1: Point being, Houston ranks eleventh in the NFL and yards
Speaker 1: perform right, Excuse me when I've got a feeling they're
Speaker 1: gonna have a little bit more success. They've got playoff history,
Speaker 1: they they're hosting this game, so the crowd noises in
Speaker 1: their favor. I think they're gonna have a little bit
Speaker 1: more success against Buffalo's defense, and I think Buffalo's offense
Speaker 1: is gonna be able to find success against Houston defense,
Speaker 1: which is why my favorite play on this game is
Speaker 1: the over. Now it's up to forty four, I don't
Speaker 1: like it as much right now, but I still think
Speaker 1: this game is gonna feature more scoring than anyone's anticipating
Speaker 1: early on. Alright, so I a strong play of the
Speaker 1: over from the always thorough Joe Ford and bought, Joe,
Speaker 1: whatever you're doing it, uh daily wager you're doing it right?
Speaker 1: That was very thorough. I like that it's it's avocado toast.
Speaker 1: I started my days with avocado toast. Of course, you do.
Speaker 1: You live in San Francisco, for God's six, um, not
Speaker 1: to take a shot at San France ago. I lived
Speaker 1: there for twenty one years. I love the people. But
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. We're not at the teaser
Speaker 1: section of this show yet, but Buffalo is just screaming
Speaker 1: teaser to me. Mike your thoughts here on the first
Speaker 1: of the four wild Card round playoff games. I'm I'm
Speaker 1: with Todd in that I have a hard time, or
Speaker 1: maybe with you, Gil and that I have a hard time,
Speaker 1: um understanding this Houston Texan team. I just don't know
Speaker 1: what team is going to show up on Saturday. Now,
Speaker 1: from a history standpoint, we've seen them struggle in this
Speaker 1: early Saturday wild Card game through the years. But I
Speaker 1: can't trust this team and I'd like to back Buffalo
Speaker 1: in this spot, but I don't know what Houston team
Speaker 1: is going to show up, So for me, this game
Speaker 1: has to be a hard pre flop pass and look
Speaker 1: for an in game opportunity. To Joe's point, Houston has
Speaker 1: allowed twenty eight touchdown passes in their last twelve games.
Speaker 1: Their defense is just not good anyway. Slice that they
Speaker 1: will be getting J. J. Watt back for this game though,
Speaker 1: needs to be noted Todd, you do have a lot
Speaker 1: of conviction in this game, right. Well, I don't know
Speaker 1: if I want to say go with the word a lot,
Speaker 1: but I definitely like it. I like Buffalo, and uh
Speaker 1: here's the reason why I like Buffalo. Uh. If you
Speaker 1: look at the Houston Texans over the last seven well,
Speaker 1: first of all, I don't like their coach. Let let
Speaker 1: it be said that Bill O'Brien is one of those
Speaker 1: John Foxian type of coaches that can get you to
Speaker 1: nine and seven, but is not anything spectacular. And when
Speaker 1: he gets in there against much better coaches. He struggles.
Speaker 1: That being said, their last seven games at Baltimore they
Speaker 1: lost forty one to seven. Indianapolis they won twenty to
Speaker 1: seventeen when Minitary kicked it right into the line, it
Speaker 1: was blocked and ran back for a touchdown. Game they
Speaker 1: should have lost. They beat New England, but you know
Speaker 1: everyone beats New England nowadays, right, even even the Dolphins can.
Speaker 1: They got crushed against Denver. Then they beat Tennessee on
Speaker 1: the road. Okay, we'll give him a little credit for that.
Speaker 1: Then at Tampa Bay they needed Cameron break to drop
Speaker 1: a fourth and three pass to win that game. Then
Speaker 1: they got killed by Tennessee in a game Okay that
Speaker 1: didn't matter. So to me, I haven't seen anything in
Speaker 1: the last half of the season out of the Texans
Speaker 1: that looks very promising. I think they're going the wrong way.
Speaker 1: They're not Peeking and Buffalo, on the other hand, I
Speaker 1: like what they've done. I think that New England game
Speaker 1: was life and death all for New England to win.
Speaker 1: They had to pull out every stop, every trick in
Speaker 1: the book that Belichick was running, trick play after trick
Speaker 1: play to barely win that game, and had Rex Burkehard
Speaker 1: not broken fourteen tackles at the one yard line, it
Speaker 1: would have been a three point game and it could
Speaker 1: have gone anyway either way. They went into Pittsburgh and
Speaker 1: one Now, granted Pittsburgh has no quarterback, agreed, but still,
Speaker 1: I just like the Buffalo coach better. I like the
Speaker 1: Buffalo defense is stout, as Joe forton Ball has has
Speaker 1: showed us with the statistics. Why can't Buffalo keep this
Speaker 1: tight and either lose seventeen sixteen or win seventeen sixteen. Well, see,
Speaker 1: I'll go one step further, and I know I'm getting
Speaker 1: ahead to our final two questions of the show. You
Speaker 1: will just apply to the four wild card games, but like,
Speaker 1: this is the one game of the four, and this
Speaker 1: is even more so than Seattle Philadelphi because I think
Speaker 1: most people, maybe maybe a lot of people will would
Speaker 1: gravitate towards that game for this. But of all the
Speaker 1: games where I could see such different, like completely different outcomes,
Speaker 1: and I would totally believe it beforehand. It's the Buffalo
Speaker 1: Houston game. If you told me right now Houston wins
Speaker 1: this game by double digits, I wouldn't be that shocked.
Speaker 1: Home playoff game at all because Buffalo is they do
Speaker 1: struggle on offense. But if you told me the opposite
Speaker 1: as well, I'd be like, oh yeah, I could see
Speaker 1: that totally happening as well. And I'm not sure any
Speaker 1: of the other three games do I fathom those? Why
Speaker 1: those those big gap it outcomes like that, the large
Speaker 1: variance and outcomes. So this game for me, I'm with you, Mike.
Speaker 1: For pre flop purposes, I don't love it against the spread.
Speaker 1: I will put Buffalo in teasers, but I just I
Speaker 1: don't trust Houston. I don't trust Josh Allen to hit
Speaker 1: a pass when he needs to. I mean, they win
Speaker 1: that game against New England, buff Low does a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks ago if Josh Allen just hits a couple
Speaker 1: open receivers. So it's just it's a frustrating game. I'm
Speaker 1: glad it's the first of the bunch, so that we
Speaker 1: get this one out of the way, which brings us
Speaker 1: to the game that I think I have the most
Speaker 1: conviction on against the spread pre flop. And here's what
Speaker 1: happens when you have a whole week to bat this
Speaker 1: around your head. I love Tennessee. Uh, they're getting five now,
Speaker 1: which is where I got it earlier in the week.
Speaker 1: Tennessee at New England. I don't think New England's a
Speaker 1: very good football team. I think Tennessee is gonna be
Speaker 1: really difficult out. But what I'm hearing now rumblings late
Speaker 1: in the week. And I try not to let this
Speaker 1: influence me, and I don't usually, but you still it
Speaker 1: gets into your brain spaces. With the sharp money's on
Speaker 1: New England. Here comes all the sharp money New England
Speaker 1: with this lov a spread. A lot of wise guys
Speaker 1: love New England. I'm very curious to see how you
Speaker 1: guys feel about this. Mike will start with you here
Speaker 1: New England five point favorites, like the first game. This
Speaker 1: totals at forty four. Also like the first game up
Speaker 1: from forty two. I'm with you here, gil Uh. This
Speaker 1: is probably my August player of the week. And then
Speaker 1: I like the five points with the dog here. Um.
Speaker 1: I think that Tennessee will be able to move the
Speaker 1: ball on the ground against New England. Um. And I'm
Speaker 1: concerned about how New England is going to move the
Speaker 1: ball against Tennessee. I I am going to put um
Speaker 1: probably close to what I bet on this game on
Speaker 1: the money line as well. Gil, I I just think
Speaker 1: that right now, right now, I mean, if the line
Speaker 1: is five, we're saying that New England's a point and
Speaker 1: a half, two points better than Tennessee on a neutral field.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure about that. Um, I'm not sure that
Speaker 1: you can say New England's a better team than Tennessee.
Speaker 1: The only thing that gives me pause in this game
Speaker 1: is that I'm gonna have to bet on Ryan Tannehill.
Speaker 1: Now we still have the lens of Ryan Tannehill in Miami,
Speaker 1: and um, you know all the pick six as he
Speaker 1: threw down there in the struggles he had. But you know,
Speaker 1: he wasn't that bad against New England. I believe he
Speaker 1: was four and seven and that might surprise people. Four
Speaker 1: and seven in the eleven games he started, he played
Speaker 1: against the Dolphins, where against New England, where he played
Speaker 1: a full game as the Dolphins quarterback, Travis Henry very
Speaker 1: difficult to tackle. Um, he's a workhorse. They gave him
Speaker 1: the week off in Week sixteen so they would be
Speaker 1: ready for weeks seventeen against Houston. I think you're gonna
Speaker 1: see a lot of carries by him. I think that
Speaker 1: Tennessee gets the lead in this game, and I think
Speaker 1: that they go wire to wire here. I'll take the
Speaker 1: five points and I'll take the money line with the Titans.
Speaker 1: Is that an official sprinkle on the money line? Is
Speaker 1: that what you Is that what you're saying? Yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: probably gonna bet between eight hundred and a thousand on
Speaker 1: this game, so it might be seven hundred on plus
Speaker 1: five three hundred on the money line, but I've definitely
Speaker 1: got the money line. I actually have a a parlay
Speaker 1: live with Oregon the money line plus one forty five
Speaker 1: from yesterday, uh to to to Tennessee on the money line.
Speaker 1: So I got a wrong side winner. And to start
Speaker 1: that off, yes, he did good for you on that.
Speaker 1: That was I was due for a right side loser.
Speaker 1: I finally got, by the way, of course, Mike meant
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, not Travis. Sorry, Travis henryho was busy taking
Speaker 1: care of his multitude of children. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you're aware of this with Travis Henry, lots of kids,
Speaker 1: lots of them. Todd Tennessee, New England. I think you
Speaker 1: feel the same. Yes, it scares me, but I do
Speaker 1: Usually when we all like one side it can be dangerous.
Speaker 1: But I just think that, uh, this is not the
Speaker 1: same New England. You know, a lot of people like, well,
Speaker 1: you can't Bill Belichick. I'll have him ready. Well, in
Speaker 1: the past when this kind of thing happened, it happened
Speaker 1: early in the season, and they righted the ship and
Speaker 1: by the end of the year they were peaking again.
Speaker 1: Especially like last year, this year, it's not the same thing.
Speaker 1: There is no one open. There is no one to
Speaker 1: throw the ball too. If I don't, youn't and Edelman
Speaker 1: gets taken out of the game, there's no tight end
Speaker 1: to throw too. There's no wide receiver's wide open like
Speaker 1: usual and Patriots game, and they they go to Rex Burkhardt. Now,
Speaker 1: I mean, Rex Burkhardt's a nice little player, but he's
Speaker 1: not exactly you know somebody who you know, he's not
Speaker 1: Randy Moss, you know, he's he's a he's a nice
Speaker 1: little running back out of the backfield. There's nobody to
Speaker 1: throw the ball too. And I think that New England's
Speaker 1: really struggling on offense, and it's and it's leaking into
Speaker 1: their defense because their their defense is under you know,
Speaker 1: the rest because the offense is playing so poorly. Uh tennis,
Speaker 1: five points is a lot of points in in an
Speaker 1: NFL game. And uh, you know, I think Lombardi and
Speaker 1: you guys, and you were talking on on this on
Speaker 1: your show Gil on Tuesday about how one of the
Speaker 1: coordinators obviously variable played for Um Belichick, but also one
Speaker 1: of the coordinators coached for Um Belichick, so they've had
Speaker 1: some success against him the people who have coached with
Speaker 1: him before. I just think five is too many points. Yeah.
Speaker 1: The rate at which former assist and again you're right,
Speaker 1: rabel is not a former assistant but a former player,
Speaker 1: but he does have former assistant on his staff. The
Speaker 1: rate at which they beat Belichick for exceeds the rate
Speaker 1: at which non former assistance and players beat Bill Belichick.
Speaker 1: And you're right. I mean, the one thing about this
Speaker 1: is as we're saying this, like in the back of
Speaker 1: all of our minds, I would imagine certainly in mind
Speaker 1: as I'm saying this the whole time, there's this little
Speaker 1: voice going and you're betting against Bill Belichick at New England.
Speaker 1: And you're betting against Bill Belichick at New England, you idiot.
Speaker 1: But that is quickly countered by what you just said.
Speaker 1: Todd which is, you know, at some point they just
Speaker 1: don't have the bodies right, so like everything that even
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick can't overcome something like that. At least that's
Speaker 1: the bet Joe tell us if we're all idiotic. All right,
Speaker 1: this is one of the tougher ones on the card
Speaker 1: for me. So probably the way you felt about the
Speaker 1: last one with Buffalo and Houston is how I feel here.
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with anything I've heard, and I think
Speaker 1: one of the most important things heading into this game
Speaker 1: is to find a way to not let the previous
Speaker 1: eighteen years of Belichick and Brady cloud your judgment, right, Like,
Speaker 1: that's what a lot of people are gonna do. If
Speaker 1: you were the alien and you were just coming down
Speaker 1: to Earth in and this is the only season you
Speaker 1: watched to think the Patriots are good. You don't think
Speaker 1: the Patriots are great as we know them. So how
Speaker 1: much of what we've seen in the past is going
Speaker 1: to cloud our judgment? For example, last year, how many
Speaker 1: people I'm not saying everyone, but how many people like
Speaker 1: the Chargers after they steamrolled Baltimore to go into New
Speaker 1: England and get them The Patriots score on the opening drive,
Speaker 1: the Chargers answer at seven seven, and then after that
Speaker 1: it was a complete blowout point being I don't know
Speaker 1: how much of that I want to let cloud my judgment.
Speaker 1: The one thing I've tried to boil this down to
Speaker 1: is how good is Tennessee? How good is Tennessee? Because
Speaker 1: we've got plenty of examples of watching them this year.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you need to go into the
Speaker 1: past with New England. I don't need to go into
Speaker 1: the past with Tennessee. But if I look at the
Speaker 1: Titans this year specifically under Ryan Tannehill, there seven and three,
Speaker 1: and during those ten games, they went six, three and
Speaker 1: one against the spread, So they've been very profit bowl,
Speaker 1: they scored a lot of points. They've been very good.
Speaker 1: But let's ask ourselves who have they played? Who have
Speaker 1: they beaten up on? Of those seven wins that they have,
Speaker 1: six came against teams with a losing record. Right six
Speaker 1: came against teams with a losing record. All six of
Speaker 1: those teams right four teeth are worse in scoring defense.
Speaker 1: Most of them were bottom ten scoring defenses, so they
Speaker 1: weren't exactly beating up on the cream of the crop.
Speaker 1: The one game that they want in those seven that
Speaker 1: wasn't against the bat football team, was against the Kansas
Speaker 1: City Chiefs, and there's nothing to take away from that victory.
Speaker 1: But you do have to note the fact that that
Speaker 1: game came in Nashville, it didn't come on the road.
Speaker 1: Tannehill's played four road games with the Titans. One was
Speaker 1: a loss at Carolina, one was last week at Houston
Speaker 1: against the B squad, and the other two were victories
Speaker 1: over a really lousy Oakland team and a lousy Indianapolis team.
Speaker 1: So I'm wondering, now, how did New England stack up
Speaker 1: against what Tannehill's beaaten this year. That's the one thing
Speaker 1: that has me hesitated about playing Tennessee. It doesn't mean
Speaker 1: up playing New England, it just has he hesitant about
Speaker 1: playing Tennessee because I'm going back that to Week seven
Speaker 1: PM when they lost to Miami. I'm gonna go back
Speaker 1: to Week seven team, that Saturday game against Buffalo. The
Speaker 1: Patriots in the game plan in that game was almost
Speaker 1: exactly what I think they're gonna try to deploy here
Speaker 1: and throughout the playoffs. They're gonna run the clock all
Speaker 1: the way down, They're gonna try to establish the run.
Speaker 1: They're gonna go dank and dunk and they're gonna try
Speaker 1: to put together eight nine minute drives. And they did
Speaker 1: it against Buffalo, who's a very familiar team. Buffalo knows
Speaker 1: them well. Buffalo played them tight early in the year.
Speaker 1: Buffalo is a better defense than Tennessee, and they were
Speaker 1: able to pull that off. And if we're talking about
Speaker 1: covering five to get that lead like they did in
Speaker 1: that game, and then you add one late, see you later,
Speaker 1: it's a point spread cover for the Patriots and come Monday,
Speaker 1: we're all going, why do we bet against the Patriots
Speaker 1: in the playoffs at home against Tennessee. That's what worries
Speaker 1: me about it, because I think that's gonna be the
Speaker 1: game plan. And I think Mike Rabel, while he's got
Speaker 1: the experience of having played for Belichick, I questioned his
Speaker 1: game management. I've seen him in a lot of games
Speaker 1: where he's been late to the draw on situations where
Speaker 1: he should have said the field goals unit out kicked
Speaker 1: and then gone on side. He doesn't know those sort
Speaker 1: of things. He doesn't act that way. He's a he's
Speaker 1: the he's the old football motivator. He's gonna get you
Speaker 1: fired up. He's gonna put you in a position where
Speaker 1: you're motivating, ready to play, but I don't know if
Speaker 1: he's gonna have the tactics to get by Belichick. We're
Speaker 1: talking about five points in a tight game where I
Speaker 1: could see Brady and New England's finding a way to
Speaker 1: cut out of field goal at the end of the
Speaker 1: first half and then finding out a way to make
Speaker 1: one more played than the Titans of the second half.
Speaker 1: So it's a little bit hesitant for me. It's probably
Speaker 1: a very small lean to New England. But right now,
Speaker 1: I I just I can't find myself on Tennessee just yet.
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with anything anybody's saying about the Titans.
Speaker 1: It's just tough seeing how they've had all this success,
Speaker 1: but against the competition and with which it's come, it's
Speaker 1: not overly impressive to me. Yeah, and I feel I
Speaker 1: feel the same way about what you just said, Like
Speaker 1: as as much conviction as I have on Tennessee, and
Speaker 1: it is the most I have of any of these
Speaker 1: four games. Could I see myself Monday morning, very first
Speaker 1: thing on a numbers game at Visa in serious X
Speaker 1: channel too for going yep, I bet against Bill Belichick
Speaker 1: I'm an idiot. The first words out of my mouth absolutely,
Speaker 1: like totally, it's it's so possible. I will say this though,
Speaker 1: if in fact this is the end of the New
Speaker 1: England dynasty, we will point back to last week against
Speaker 1: the Dolphins as ground zero for it, because that's a
Speaker 1: game as a seventeen point favorite. And ESPN even put
Speaker 1: this up. That's the second worst loss visa via the
Speaker 1: betting market, through the lens of the betting markets, the
Speaker 1: second worst loss by defending Super Bowl champion ever by
Speaker 1: seventeen point favorite. I think there was a game in
Speaker 1: nineteen sixty seven that was worse. But that's it. I
Speaker 1: mean that you don't lose a game like that, and
Speaker 1: you certainly don't lose a game like that if you're
Speaker 1: the Patriots and Ryan Fitzpatrick. They could not stop him
Speaker 1: and they couldn't guard. They couldn't you know, Von Gilmore,
Speaker 1: as great as he was, couldn't check Davante Parker. Everything
Speaker 1: you say, I feel the same way, like there's nothing
Speaker 1: wrong about it. I'm gonna bet my conviction here. I
Speaker 1: think this is the end for New England. I really do.
Speaker 1: In Tennessee, I do this off the grid thing this
Speaker 1: sort of school stock market thing that rarely talk about.
Speaker 1: But I'm buying on Tennessee here moving forward in the
Speaker 1: postseason because I think they are a sneaky little team
Speaker 1: moving forward can make some noise. Not gonna win at all,
Speaker 1: but could make some noise in the a f C playoffs. Sunday, gentlemen,
Speaker 1: we switch to the NFC again. Really weird this year
Speaker 1: that both conference games for each conference are on their
Speaker 1: own individual days, So two games from the a f
Speaker 1: C on Saturday, then the NFC starts. Remember this is
Speaker 1: early now on Sunday. The games start later on Saturday,
Speaker 1: but early on Sunday as per tradition. One oh five
Speaker 1: pm Eastern, ten o five am Pacific for Minnesota at
Speaker 1: New Orleans. That's the sixth three game in the NFC.
Speaker 1: Minnesota was already locked into the number six position, so
Speaker 1: like Buffalo, for instance, in the a f C, they
Speaker 1: had nothing to play for last week. They started Shawn Mannon,
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins got arrest and by the way, Dalvin cooked
Speaker 1: by injury as well an extra week New Orleans, Uh.
Speaker 1: They come off a just ay, absolutely hammering of their opponent.
Speaker 1: They had seeding to play for in Week seventeen didn't
Speaker 1: work out for them, so they're stuck with a first
Speaker 1: round game. But what a team to be playing a
Speaker 1: game wild card weekend. New Orleans eight point favorites now consensus.
Speaker 1: You'll you'll see some seven and a half's out there,
Speaker 1: but they're eight point favorites against the Vikings total forty
Speaker 1: nine and a half, teetering on fifty forty nine and
Speaker 1: a half extra juice. Todd start with you, I don't
Speaker 1: love this against the spread pre flap. Yeah, I don't either.
Speaker 1: I mean I would probably put it. I would be
Speaker 1: comfortable putting New Orleans in a teaser down to two,
Speaker 1: but I don't really trust them to to win by eight.
Speaker 1: That's a lot of points against the quality team. Now, granted,
Speaker 1: they're going against Kirk Cousins, and as we know, Mr
Speaker 1: Cousins struggles a bit on the road and especially in
Speaker 1: big spots. UH Minnesota. To me, UH is the kind
Speaker 1: of team that they can at home, they can look
Speaker 1: very good, although they haven't even looked at great at
Speaker 1: home lately. But on the road they struggle a lot.
Speaker 1: I mean, they lost that Packer game. They looked horrendous
Speaker 1: and that was that was even at home. But I
Speaker 1: just don't really have a lot of faith in Minnesota.
Speaker 1: At the same time, I don't have a lot of
Speaker 1: faith in the Saints that they're just gonna blow people out,
Speaker 1: you know, at home. So you know, to me, this
Speaker 1: is kind of either a stay away or tease it
Speaker 1: down to two, you know, in this game. Although maybe
Speaker 1: I would lean to the under in this game. I
Speaker 1: would I would maybe lean to the under just because
Speaker 1: you know, you gotta think Minnesota is gonna try to
Speaker 1: run the ball and slow the game down a bit
Speaker 1: on the road against against the Saints, So that's where
Speaker 1: I would probably lean there on the under. New Orleans
Speaker 1: with a thirteen and three record without a first round
Speaker 1: by the NFC just filled with teams with gaudy records.
Speaker 1: Not only New Orleans at thirteen and three. Obviously, San
Speaker 1: Francisco is the number one seed throughout the NFC playoffs
Speaker 1: there at thirteen and three. Green Bay somehow at thirteen
Speaker 1: and three as well, they're the other team with the buy.
Speaker 1: So New Orleans stuck with the extra game. Joe, your
Speaker 1: thoughts here, I'm going to be over in this one,
Speaker 1: and I think Todd's right. If you're Minnesota you're absolutely
Speaker 1: gonna want to run Dalvin Cook, and you're gonna want
Speaker 1: to try to grind the clock and keep the ball
Speaker 1: away from breeze. The problem is if you aren't able
Speaker 1: to do that early and you fall behind, you've got
Speaker 1: to abandon that plan, and you're gonna have to abandon
Speaker 1: it quick because New Orleans has been scoring in bunches
Speaker 1: as of late. Go back to that loss against Atlanta
Speaker 1: and get ten when the Falcons came into the Voodoo
Speaker 1: Doome and beat the Saint Nine. Since then, they have
Speaker 1: played seven games. They're averaging thirty six points per game
Speaker 1: during those seven games, scoring thirty four or more in
Speaker 1: six of those games. The offense has been absolutely fantastic,
Speaker 1: but the defense hasn't. And I'll get to that in
Speaker 1: a second. You look at Minnesota. You know them for defense,
Speaker 1: but they're a very different team on the road than
Speaker 1: they are in the Dome when they play at home
Speaker 1: and they've got the benefit of the crowd noise twenty
Speaker 1: eight sacks. You look at their red zone defense, their
Speaker 1: third down defense, points allowed, They're only given up sixteen
Speaker 1: points per game at home, yards per play five All
Speaker 1: the way across the board, they're one of the best
Speaker 1: in the business when they're at home, but when they
Speaker 1: go on the road, they become average to below average.
Speaker 1: They given up about twenty two points per game, five
Speaker 1: point four yards per play, forty five percent third down
Speaker 1: conversions only twenty stacks, and the red zone conversion of
Speaker 1: all red zone trips result the touchdown versus thirty six
Speaker 1: percent when it's in Minnesota. That's gonna be a really
Speaker 1: tall order for this group, led by a corner in
Speaker 1: Xavier Roads who has been victimized all season long. That
Speaker 1: guy went from being one of the premier corners in
Speaker 1: the league to being someone you absolutely pick on every
Speaker 1: opportunity you get. And the States are gonna want to
Speaker 1: get Michael Thomas on via Roads as often as possible.
Speaker 1: So with the way the States have been playing, with
Speaker 1: the urgency, with the the they're bringing in Antonio Brown,
Speaker 1: they're putting in the waiver claim ont Noris Jenkins. They
Speaker 1: know this is the end of the line for the
Speaker 1: Peyton Breeze era. I'm not saying Breeze retires after this year,
Speaker 1: but this might be their last best chance. They're they're
Speaker 1: gonna they're going falls to the wall here now in
Speaker 1: terms of covering eight. No, I'm probably not going that far,
Speaker 1: but I think they're to get theirs, which means Minnesota
Speaker 1: is gonna be in faith mode for most of the game,
Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna be throwing the ball a
Speaker 1: lot with Kirk Cousins. I'm not sure how much I
Speaker 1: trust that, but I do know that New Orleans defense,
Speaker 1: whether they're at home or on the road, no matter
Speaker 1: what the scenario, they're not all that great. They're giving
Speaker 1: up about twenty three points per game at home this season.
Speaker 1: If you're Minnesota, you've got to study some of the
Speaker 1: San Francisco tape of what the Niners were doing a
Speaker 1: few weeks ago, because the Saints aren't aren't bulletproof at
Speaker 1: home like they were in the past. We're doing this
Speaker 1: podcast five six, eight years ago. We're talking about there's
Speaker 1: no way get bet against the Saints and MS home.
Speaker 1: There's no way you even consider it in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: but now you will. Atlanta went in there and gotta win. Uh.
Speaker 1: San Francisco went in there and gotta win. They struggled
Speaker 1: early in the season against Houston, seek that one out.
Speaker 1: They're vulnerable and it's because of the defense. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna play over here over forty nine another play there
Speaker 1: on the over for Joe Um the other one Buffalo
Speaker 1: Houston has gotten away from his bet at forty one
Speaker 1: and a half, but it's at forty four, this one
Speaker 1: forty nine and a half currently, So you uh that price?
Speaker 1: You would make the overplay at forty nine and a
Speaker 1: half still Joe in this one? Yeah? Yes? I would? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Could I? I It was forty two and a half
Speaker 1: where I had to build forty two and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, okay, um it open and a half. I
Speaker 1: did not get that. Unfortunately. I said this before the
Speaker 1: l s U Oklahoma game, and I was all over
Speaker 1: L s U as so many people were. But one
Speaker 1: of the comments I made on the show was that
Speaker 1: I don't know any single person that thought Oklahoma could
Speaker 1: win that game out right cover. Yes, I knew a
Speaker 1: couple of people, but to win it out right, there
Speaker 1: wasn't a single person that I know, And as it
Speaker 1: turned out, everyone was right not to have that thought
Speaker 1: with this game. I get it, it's a different animal.
Speaker 1: It's the NFL, but it's not the largest spread in
Speaker 1: the world. I don't know one person who thinks Minnesota
Speaker 1: wins this football game out right cover, maybe, but I
Speaker 1: haven't run into one yet. And as a guy who
Speaker 1: grew up on the Redskins and watched every snep that
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins had there in Washington, if Minnesota loses here,
Speaker 1: that's two thirds of Minnesota's eighty four million dollar contract
Speaker 1: to Kirk Cousins. That is over with. Two thirds of
Speaker 1: the Kirk Cousins experience will be in your rear view.
Speaker 1: And I'm wondering, if Minnesota loses here, and let's say
Speaker 1: they lose in spectacular fashion, do the Vikings make a
Speaker 1: change at head coach, Like there's always one surprise in
Speaker 1: the NFL. I'm wondering if Mike Zimmer might be out
Speaker 1: and Kevin Somnaski might be on his way up. That's
Speaker 1: something to think about here as well. But I don't
Speaker 1: know one person who thinks Minnesota win is out right.
Speaker 1: Maybe Mike, you will tell me different. I certainly won't.
Speaker 1: I'll lay the eight here. I'm also going to tease
Speaker 1: him down, but because I think it's a good tease,
Speaker 1: play again him under three. But I think they're goodness.
Speaker 1: Game is not competitive. Um, if there was any team
Speaker 1: mid season. I was more wrong about this year. It's
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings. I I really thought that because of
Speaker 1: their balance, and by that I mean the ability to
Speaker 1: run the ball, targets at wide receiver and tight end,
Speaker 1: and a top ten defense, uh that they could even
Speaker 1: go on the road with Kirk Cousins because it looked
Speaker 1: like they were gonna have trouble winning the division and
Speaker 1: get to the super Bowl. I just don't think that
Speaker 1: their secondary is an elite secondary. I think it's a
Speaker 1: below average secondary. And I don't think their offensive line
Speaker 1: is as good as I thought. I don't know that
Speaker 1: they can run the ball. Kirk Cousins is only effective
Speaker 1: if they can run the ball. Look at his numbers
Speaker 1: on play action versus his numbers where he just goes
Speaker 1: to a seventh step or a five step drop. He
Speaker 1: he is a below average quarterback when he just drops
Speaker 1: back and you know he's throwing the ball. I don't
Speaker 1: think they're gonna be able to run the ball in
Speaker 1: New Orleans. I'm with Joe. I think they get behind,
Speaker 1: and I think this game gets out ahead. If you're
Speaker 1: gonna rely on Kirk Cousins to lead you on three
Speaker 1: touchdown drives, in the second half to cover this game.
Speaker 1: That's not a spot I want to be and I
Speaker 1: think this is a route, So I'll lay eight and
Speaker 1: I agree with Joe. I think it's probably gets over
Speaker 1: because the Saints will build a lead and they will
Speaker 1: give up give up some points in the second half
Speaker 1: when Minesota gets a chase mode and by Kevin Stefanski.
Speaker 1: Of course I met Kevin Stefanski. Let me just point
Speaker 1: that out as well. I will speak to that. I
Speaker 1: don't think they get rid of zimmer Gil, even if
Speaker 1: they get run out in this game. I just don't.
Speaker 1: I think they might make some other organizational changes. I
Speaker 1: even might take that they might. I know they paid
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins all this money, um, but I think because
Speaker 1: it's more likely that Cousins is not there than Ben
Speaker 1: zimmer I do not think they're going away from zimmer
Speaker 1: And in some strange way. I mean, I keep getting
Speaker 1: back to this point on the show this year, but
Speaker 1: in some strange way, it's it's it gets always gets
Speaker 1: back in the NFL economy to this point in these
Speaker 1: quarterbacks careers, which is a pretty recent development where it's
Speaker 1: like Kirk Cousins is up for a contract. Jared Goff
Speaker 1: is now Jamis Winston is and these teams are forced
Speaker 1: probably prematurely, right before they really have all the evidence
Speaker 1: they need to throw eighty two a hundred hundred twenty
Speaker 1: million dollars at these guys to know if these are
Speaker 1: really guys that will get him to the Promised Land.
Speaker 1: And again it gets back check it down man now
Speaker 1: down Man. Thatursday Morning, January second tent Wow, The Beating
Speaker 1: the Book Podcast. The playoffs are here, wild Card Weekend Megapod.
Speaker 1: Gil Alexander with the staples of the show on my
Speaker 1: right from Circus Sports, the vice president of Operations, the
Speaker 1: Great Mike Palm. Good morning, Michael, Good morning Gil, Good
Speaker 1: morning Todd. It's nice to see back on the pod
Speaker 1: after a couple of weeks off. But hopefully everybody got
Speaker 1: the best bets the last few weeks. Yeah we did.
Speaker 1: Happy New Year to you. Happy new Year, Todd. You good. Yes,
Speaker 1: life is beautiful. It's sunny out again. It's fantastic. I
Speaker 1: have a water here and I can take a shower.
Speaker 1: Oh that's excellent. And our rotating guest on the show
Speaker 1: is not just a rotating guest for the playoffs. We
Speaker 1: only bring in the All Stars. It's his second appearance
Speaker 1: of the year, lays gentleman from ESPN two's Daily Wager
Speaker 1: and also, may I just say the host of Joe
Speaker 1: Lowan Dibbs in the Morning ninety five point seven the
Speaker 1: Game in San Francisco, Joe fort and Ball Mega Pod staple,
Speaker 1: what's happening? Not a lot kill, It's great to be here.
Speaker 1: Happy New Year. I'm still trying to figure out if
Speaker 1: you're hustling me or not. I get this text mess
Speaker 1: New Year's Eve. Hey would love to have you on
Speaker 1: the megapod, and I'm thinking to myself, all right, this
Speaker 1: guy is clearly desperate. Everyone's turned him down and he's
Speaker 1: hit me up during dinner on New Year's Eve. But
Speaker 1: then I get the text that says, no, no, only
Speaker 1: the All Stars for the playoff podcast. So now you're
Speaker 1: tickling my you know what a little bit. I'm thinking
Speaker 1: to myself, is he being true? Is he playing with me?
Speaker 1: But either way, it's always a pleasure to be here.
Speaker 1: Thank you for the in fight. I always welcome the conversation.
Speaker 1: You are a welcome, sir, and it is actually the latter.
Speaker 1: You're the first person I called. You are the first
Speaker 1: person I called. In fact, in my head, I was like,
Speaker 1: I'm doing fort and Ball wild Card and then I'm
Speaker 1: gonna have Lombardi for the divisional round. That was exactly
Speaker 1: the what was in my head. Then you're just lazy
Speaker 1: waiting that. Then you're just lazy waiting that long the
Speaker 1: book it. Yeah, that's that is more accurate that you know.
Speaker 1: That's what happens you. You probably know this too, right,
Speaker 1: because you do like multiple things, and I don't know
Speaker 1: if you're the one booking on any of those platforms,
Speaker 1: but there's something that always gets where you're like, at
Speaker 1: the last minute, you're like, oh damn, I gotta do that.
Speaker 1: I forgot. Oh yeah, dude. When you're in this type
Speaker 1: of business, when you're when you're when you're lucky enough
Speaker 1: to be working on different platforms, you have your day
Speaker 1: to day routine. You gotta you gotta be good with
Speaker 1: your time management and your organization, and even then there's
Speaker 1: always the one little thing you forgot to do. It.
Speaker 1: It's never major, but it's just like shoot holidays coming up.
Speaker 1: I totally see where you're coming from. And it's very
Speaker 1: much an honor to get to lead off before Lombardi
Speaker 1: next week. You know me and him go way back.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I know you do, way back in the day.
Speaker 1: Lombardi is the best. All right, gentlemen, let's do it.
Speaker 1: Wild Card weekend. There's four games. It's very straightforward. Let's
Speaker 1: start with them in chronological order. Very strange this year
Speaker 1: where we have the two a f C games on
Speaker 1: one day and the two NFC games on the other.
Speaker 1: That doesn't usually happen, but based on time zones, that's
Speaker 1: how it shakes out. And so we start with the
Speaker 1: a f C on Saturday. These are the games that
Speaker 1: are staggered later. They start later in the day. First
Speaker 1: game four thirty five pm Eastern, kick off one thirty
Speaker 1: five pm Pacific. It's the five four game in the
Speaker 1: a f C between the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans.
Speaker 1: Texans are favored now by two and a half. It
Speaker 1: was three when it first came out. It's off the
Speaker 1: key number of three. It's two and a half total
Speaker 1: at forty four. Buffalo already had this position clinched, so
Speaker 1: they didn't have anything to play for last week. Houston
Speaker 1: didn't have anything to play for either. Uh so they're
Speaker 1: coming off really what amounts to a de facto by
Speaker 1: in both cases of all the four games, for me,
Speaker 1: this is the one that I would have guessed three
Speaker 1: when it came out three. We had we had a
Speaker 1: guessing lines this week. It's not the one that I
Speaker 1: love against. The spread is the most bettable. But I
Speaker 1: know we have some different opinions here. I know Todd
Speaker 1: you like this game a lot. Let's start with our guest, Joe.
Speaker 1: What do you think about this game? Buffalo at Houston?
Speaker 1: Two plays on this game earlier in the week. Um,
Speaker 1: I took the Bills plus and I took the over
Speaker 1: at forty two and a half. Now, I didn't get
Speaker 1: the best of it on the over. I think forty
Speaker 1: one and a half was out there, but both have
Speaker 1: moved in the right the rest. For me since that happened,
Speaker 1: the one I like more is the over in this matchup.
Speaker 1: As soon as I saw that number at forty one
Speaker 1: and a half, I just started thinking to myself, this
Speaker 1: feels this feels really low given the matchup, and I
Speaker 1: understand that the first thought would be to look at
Speaker 1: the Bills and to say, well, you know, they don't
Speaker 1: score a lot of points, because they don't. They scored
Speaker 1: twenty one points a game at home, or they scored
Speaker 1: twenty one points a game on the road. They scored
Speaker 1: seventeenth points per game at home. They're not exactly a
Speaker 1: quick stripe offense. Josh Allen is the most consistent of quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: So you're gonna look at that and you're gonna realize
Speaker 1: Buffalo has got one of the better defenses in the league,
Speaker 1: and you're gonna think to yourself, when it's all said
Speaker 1: and done, this is probably gonna be a grind amount
Speaker 1: of fair. But I think the one disadvantage for Bustalo
Speaker 1: a quick strike offense, it's not gonna hurt them as
Speaker 1: much here. I think they're gonna be able to move
Speaker 1: the ball. Houston defense is absolutely dreadful, absolutely dreadful this season.
Speaker 1: They are dead last in the NFL and red zone
Speaker 1: defense and dead last and opponent yards for play thirty
Speaker 1: one and opponent third down conversions twenty eight and total defense.
Speaker 1: And if you keep in mind, like I said earlier,
Speaker 1: the Builds are scoring more points on the road than
Speaker 1: they are at home. Now, I don't think that matters
Speaker 1: too much here, but they're not the type of team
Speaker 1: that goes on the road and completely struggles to move
Speaker 1: the football. Now you look at Buffalo defense this year
Speaker 1: and you say to yourself, well, this is a great unit.
Speaker 1: If the offense is running slow and they're controlling tempo
Speaker 1: and you let the defense go out there and do
Speaker 1: their thing, this should be an under And I can
Speaker 1: understand that. But in their sixteen games this year, eleven
Speaker 1: of them came against teams that ranked twenty one or
Speaker 1: worse in yards for play. They didn't exactly play the
Speaker 1: murderers row of NFL offense. They got a lot of
Speaker 1: good matchups that put the defense in a position to
Speaker 1: make a lot of key plays. And that's about to
Speaker 1: downgrade the defense. It's just to say, look at the competition,
Speaker 1: look at the people they played this year. If we
Speaker 1: move away from the eleven games in which they played
Speaker 1: teams that ranked twenty one or worst in yards for play,
Speaker 1: that leads us with five games. One of them was
Speaker 1: the Baltimore game, which they lost, all they played very
Speaker 1: well in that game. One of them was the Cleveland
Speaker 1: game which they lost, and one of them was the
Speaker 1: Tennessee game, which they won, but that was with Marcus
Speaker 1: Mariota at quarterback rather than Ryan Tannehill. Point being, Houston
Speaker 1: ranks eleven in the NFL and yards perform right, excuse
Speaker 1: me when I've got a feeling they're gonna have a
Speaker 1: little bit more success. They've got playoff history, they they're
Speaker 1: hosting this game, so the crowd noises in their favor.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have a little bit more success
Speaker 1: against Buffalo's defense. And I think Buffalo's offense is gonna
Speaker 1: be able to find success against Houston defense, which is
Speaker 1: why my favorite play on this game is the over.
Speaker 1: Now it's up to forty four, I don't like it
Speaker 1: as much right now, but I still think this game
Speaker 1: is gonna feature more scoring than anyone's anticipating early on. Alright,
Speaker 1: so I a strong play of the over from the
Speaker 1: always thorough Joe Ford and bought, Joe, whatever you're doing it,
Speaker 1: uh daily wager you're doing it right? That was very thorough.
Speaker 1: I like that. It's it's avocado toast. I started my
Speaker 1: days with avocado toast. Of course, you do. You live
Speaker 1: in San Francisco, for God's six um not to take
Speaker 1: a shot at San Francisco. I live there for twenty
Speaker 1: one years. I love the people, but you know what
Speaker 1: I mean, We're not at the teaser section of the
Speaker 1: show yet, but Buffalo is just screaming teaser to me. Mike,
Speaker 1: your thoughts here on the first of the four wild
Speaker 1: Card Round playoff games. I'm I'm with Todd in that
Speaker 1: I have a hard time or maybe with you, Gil
Speaker 1: and that I have a hard time um understanding this
Speaker 1: Houston Texan team. I just don't know what team is
Speaker 1: going to show up on Saturday. Now. From a history standpoint,
Speaker 1: we've seen them struggle in this early Saturday wild Card
Speaker 1: game through the years. But I can't trust this team
Speaker 1: and I'd like to back Buffalo in this spot, but
Speaker 1: I don't know what Houston team is going to show up.
Speaker 1: So for me, this game has to be a hard
Speaker 1: pre flop pass and look for an in game opportunity.
Speaker 1: To Joe's point, Houston has allowed twenty eight touchdown passes
Speaker 1: in their last twelve games. Their defense is just not
Speaker 1: good anyway. Slice that they will be getting J. J.
Speaker 1: Watt back for this game though, needs to be noted. Dodd,
Speaker 1: you do have a lot of conviction on this game,
Speaker 1: right Well, I don't know if I want to say
Speaker 1: go with the word a lot, but I definitely like it.
Speaker 1: I like Buffalo, And uh, here's the reason why I
Speaker 1: like Buffalo. Uh. If you look at the Houston Texans
Speaker 1: over the last seven well, first of all, I don't
Speaker 1: like their coach. Let let it be said that Bill
Speaker 1: O'Brien is one of those John Foxian type of coaches
Speaker 1: that can get you to nine and seven, but is
Speaker 1: not anything spectacular, and when he gets in there against
Speaker 1: much better coaches, he struggles. That being said, their last
Speaker 1: seven games at Baltimore they lost forty one to seven.
Speaker 1: Indianapolis they won twenty to seventeen when Minitary kicked it
Speaker 1: right into the line, it was blocked and ran back
Speaker 1: for a touchdown. Game they should have lost. They beat
Speaker 1: New England, but you know everyone beats New England nowadays, right,
Speaker 1: even even the Dolphins can. They got crushed against Denver.
Speaker 1: Then they beat Tennessee on the road. Okay, well give
Speaker 1: him a little credit for that. Then at Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: they needed Cameron Break to drop a fourth and three
Speaker 1: pad us to win that game. Then they got killed
Speaker 1: by Tennessee in a game Okay that didn't matter. So
Speaker 1: to me, I haven't seen anything in the last half
Speaker 1: of the season. Out of the Texans. That looks very promising.
Speaker 1: I think they're going the wrong way. They're not peeking.
Speaker 1: And Buffalo, on the other hand, I like what they've done.
Speaker 1: I think that New England game was life and death
Speaker 1: all for New England to win. They had to pull
Speaker 1: out every stop, every trick in the book that Belichick
Speaker 1: was running, trick play after trick play to barely win
Speaker 1: that game. And had Rex Burkehard not broken fourteen tackles
Speaker 1: at the one yard line, it would have been a
Speaker 1: three point game and it could have gone anyway either way.
Speaker 1: They went into Pittsburgh and one Now, granted Pittsburgh has
Speaker 1: no quarterback, agreed, but still, I just like the Buffalo
Speaker 1: coach better. I like the Buffalo defense is stout, as
Speaker 1: Joe Forton Ball has has showed us with the statistics.
Speaker 1: Why can't Buffalo keep this tight and either lose seventeen
Speaker 1: sixteen or win seventeen sixteen. Well, see, I'll go one
Speaker 1: step further, and I know I'm getting ahead to our
Speaker 1: final two questions of the show, which will just apply
Speaker 1: to the four wild card games. But like, this is
Speaker 1: the one game of the four, and this is even
Speaker 1: more so than Seattle, Philadelphi because I think most people,
Speaker 1: maybe maybe a lot of people will would gravitate towards
Speaker 1: that game for this But of all the games where
Speaker 1: I could see such different, like completely different outcomes, and
Speaker 1: I would totally believe it beforehand, it's the Buffalo Houston game.
Speaker 1: If you told me right now Houston wins this game
Speaker 1: by double digits, I wouldn't be that shocked home playoff
Speaker 1: game at all, because Buffalo is they do struggle on offense.
Speaker 1: But if you told me the opposite as well, I'd
Speaker 1: be like, oh yeah, I could see that totally happening
Speaker 1: as well. And I'm not sure any of the other
Speaker 1: three games do I fathom those? Why those those big
Speaker 1: gap it outcomes like that, the large variance and outcomes.
Speaker 1: So this game, for me, I'm with you, Mike. For
Speaker 1: pre flop purposes, I don't love it against the spread.
Speaker 1: I will put Buffalo in teasers, but I just I
Speaker 1: don't trust Houston. I don't trust Josh Allen to hit
Speaker 1: a pass when he needs to. I mean, they win
Speaker 1: that game him against New England. Buffalo does a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks ago. If Josh Allen just hits a couple
Speaker 1: open receivers. So it's just it's a frustrating game. I'm
Speaker 1: glad it's the first of the bunch so that we
Speaker 1: get this one out of the way, which brings us
Speaker 1: to the game that I think I have the most
Speaker 1: conviction on against the spread pre flop. And here's what
Speaker 1: happens when you have a whole week to bat this
Speaker 1: around your head. I love Tennessee. Uh they're getting five now,
Speaker 1: which is where I got it earlier in the week,
Speaker 1: Tennessee at New England. I don't think New England's a
Speaker 1: very good football team. I think Tennessee is gonna be
Speaker 1: really difficult out. But what I'm hearing now rumblings late
Speaker 1: in the week. And I try not to let this
Speaker 1: influence me, and I don't usually, but you still it
Speaker 1: gets into your brain spaces. With the sharp money's on
Speaker 1: New England. Here comes all the sharp money New England
Speaker 1: with this LoVa spread. A lot of wise guys love
Speaker 1: New England. I'm very curious to see how you guys
Speaker 1: feel about this. Mike will start with you here. New
Speaker 1: England five point favorites. Like the first game, This totals
Speaker 1: at forty four. Also like the first game up from
Speaker 1: forty two I'm with you here, gil Uh. This is
Speaker 1: probably my strongest play of the week. And then I
Speaker 1: like the five points with the dog here. Um, I
Speaker 1: think that Tennessee will be able to move the ball
Speaker 1: on the ground against New England. Um, And I'm concerned
Speaker 1: about how New England is going to move the ball
Speaker 1: against Tennessee. I I am going to put um probably
Speaker 1: close to of what I bet on this game on
Speaker 1: the money line as well, Gil, I, I just think
Speaker 1: that right now, right now, I mean, if the line
Speaker 1: is five, we're saying that New England's a point and
Speaker 1: a half, two points better than Tennessee on a neutral field.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure about that. Um, I'm not sure that
Speaker 1: you can say New England's a better team than Tennessee.
Speaker 1: The only thing that gives me pause in this game
Speaker 1: is that I'm gonna have to bet on Ryan Tannehill.
Speaker 1: Now we still have the lens of Ryan Tannehill in Miami,
Speaker 1: and um, you know all the pick six as he
Speaker 1: threw down there in the struggles. He yet but you know,
Speaker 1: he wasn't that bad against New England. I believe he
Speaker 1: was four and seven and that might surprise people. Four
Speaker 1: and seven in the eleven games he started. He played
Speaker 1: against the Dolphins, where against New England, where he played
Speaker 1: a full game as the Dolphins quarterback Travis Henry very
Speaker 1: difficult to tackle. Um he's a workhorse. They gave him
Speaker 1: the week off in Week sixteen so they would be
Speaker 1: ready for Week seventeen against Houston. I think you're gonna
Speaker 1: see a lot of carries by him. I think that
Speaker 1: Tennessee gets the lead in this game, and I think
Speaker 1: that they go wire to wire here. I'll take the
Speaker 1: five points and I'll take the money line with the Titans.
Speaker 1: Is that an official sprinkle on the money line? Is
Speaker 1: that what? You? Is that? What? Yeah? I'm probably gonna
Speaker 1: bet between eight hundred and a thousand on this game,
Speaker 1: so it might be seven hundred on plus five three
Speaker 1: hundred on on the money line. But I've definitely got
Speaker 1: the money line. I actually have a a parlay live
Speaker 1: with Oregon on the money line plus one forty five
Speaker 1: from yesterday, uh to to to Tennessee on the money line.
Speaker 1: So I got a wrong side winner. And to start
Speaker 1: that off, yes, he did good for you on that.
Speaker 1: That was I was due for a right side loser.
Speaker 1: I finally got by the way of course, Mike meant
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, not Travis. Sorry Travis Henry, who's busy taking
Speaker 1: care of his multitude of children. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you're aware of this with Travis Henry, lots of kids,
Speaker 1: lots of them. Todd Tennessee, New England, I think you
Speaker 1: feel the same. Yes, it scares me, but I do
Speaker 1: usually when we all like one side, it can be dangerous.
Speaker 1: But I just think that, uh, this is not the
Speaker 1: same New England. You know, a lot of people like, well,
Speaker 1: you can't have Bill Belichick, I'll have him ready. Well,
Speaker 1: in the past when this kind of thing happened, it
Speaker 1: happened early in the season, and they righted the ship
Speaker 1: and by the end of the year they were peaking again.
Speaker 1: Especially like last year, this year, it's not the same thing.
Speaker 1: There is no one open. There is no one to
Speaker 1: throw the ball to if Edelman, Edelman gets taken out
Speaker 1: of the game, there's no tight end to throw too.
Speaker 1: There's no wide receiver's wide open like usual and Patriots
Speaker 1: game and they go to Rex Burkhardt. Now, I mean,
Speaker 1: Rex Burkhardt's a nice little player, but he's not exactly
Speaker 1: you know somebody who you know he's not Randy Moss.
Speaker 1: You know, he's he's a he's a nice little running
Speaker 1: back out of the backfield. There's nobody to throw the
Speaker 1: ball too. And I think that New England's really struggling
Speaker 1: on offense and it's and it's leaking into their defense
Speaker 1: because their their defense is under you know, the rest,
Speaker 1: because the offense is playing so poorly. Uh, tennis, five
Speaker 1: points is a lot of points in in an NFL game,
Speaker 1: And uh, you know, I think Lombardi and you guys
Speaker 1: and you were talking on on this on your show
Speaker 1: Gil on Tuesday about how one of the coordinators obviously
Speaker 1: variable played for Um Belichick, but also one of the
Speaker 1: coordinators coach for Um Belichick, so they've had some success
Speaker 1: against him the people who have coached with him before.
Speaker 1: I just think five is too many points. Which former
Speaker 1: assistance and again you're right, Rabel's not a former assistant
Speaker 1: but a former player, but he does have former assistant
Speaker 1: on staff. The rate at which they beat Belichick far
Speaker 1: exceeds the rate at which non former assistance and players
Speaker 1: beat Bill Belichick. And you're right. I mean, the one
Speaker 1: thing about this is, as we're saying this, like in
Speaker 1: the back of all of our minds. I would imagine,
Speaker 1: certainly in mind as I'm saying this the whole time,
Speaker 1: there's this little voice going and you're betting against Bill
Speaker 1: Belichick at New England. And you're betting against Bill Belichick
Speaker 1: at New England, you idiot. But that is quickly countered
Speaker 1: by what you just said, Todd, which is, you know,
Speaker 1: at some point they just don't have the bodies, right,
Speaker 1: So like everything that even Bill Belichick can't overcome something
Speaker 1: like that. At least that's the bet Joe tell us
Speaker 1: if we're all idiotic, all right, this is one of
Speaker 1: the tougher ones on the card for me. So probably
Speaker 1: the way you felt about the last one with Buffalo
Speaker 1: and Houston is how I feel here. I don't disagree
Speaker 1: with anything I've heard, and I think one of the
Speaker 1: most important things heading into this game is to find
Speaker 1: a way to not let the previous eighteen years of
Speaker 1: Belichick and Brady cloud your judgment, right, Like that's what
Speaker 1: a lot of people are gonna do. If you were
Speaker 1: the alien and you were just coming down to Earth
Speaker 1: in and this is the only season you watched to
Speaker 1: think the Patriots are good, you don't think the Patriots
Speaker 1: are great as we know them, so how much of
Speaker 1: what we've seen in the past is going to cloud
Speaker 1: our judgment? For example, last year, how many people I'm
Speaker 1: not saying everyone, but how many people like the Chargers
Speaker 1: after they steamrolled Baltimore to go into New England and
Speaker 1: GenAm the Patriots score on the opening drive, the Chargers
Speaker 1: answer at seven seven, and then after that it was
Speaker 1: a complete but blowout. Point being, I don't know how
Speaker 1: much of that I want to let cloud my judgment.
Speaker 1: The one thing I've tried to boil this down to
Speaker 1: is how good is Tennessee? How good is Tennessee? Because
Speaker 1: we've got plenty of examples of watching them this year.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you need to go into the
Speaker 1: past with New England. I don't need to go into
Speaker 1: the past with Tennessee. But if I look at the
Speaker 1: Titans this year specifically under Ryan Tannehill, there seven and
Speaker 1: three and during those ten games they went six three
Speaker 1: and one against the spread. So they've been very profitable,
Speaker 1: They've scored a lot of points. They've been very good.
Speaker 1: But let's ask ourselves who have they played, who have
Speaker 1: they beaten up on? Of those seven wins that they
Speaker 1: have six came against teams with a losing record. Right
Speaker 1: six came against teams with a losing record. All six
Speaker 1: of those teams right four teeth are worse in scoring defense.
Speaker 1: Most of them were bottom ten scoring defenses, so they
Speaker 1: weren't exactly beating up on the cream of the crop.
Speaker 1: The one game that they want in those seven that
Speaker 1: wasn't against the bat Football team was against the Kansas
Speaker 1: City Chiefs, and there's nothing to take away from that victory.
Speaker 1: But you do have to note the fact that that
Speaker 1: game came in Nashville. It didn't come on the road.
Speaker 1: Tannehill's played four road games with the Titans. One was
Speaker 1: a loss at Carolina, one was last week at Houston
Speaker 1: against the B squad, and the other two were victories
Speaker 1: over a really lousy Oakland team and a lousy Indianapolis team.
Speaker 1: So I'm wondering, now, how did New England stack up
Speaker 1: against what Tannehill's beatn this year. That's the one thing
Speaker 1: that has me hesitant about playing Tennessee. It doesn't mean
Speaker 1: I'm playing New Wayland. It just has me hesitant about
Speaker 1: playing Tennessee because I'm going back that to Week seven
Speaker 1: tea when they lost to Miami. I'm gonna go back
Speaker 1: to Week sevent team, that Saturday game against Buffalo. The
Speaker 1: Patriots in the game plan in that game was almost
Speaker 1: exactly what I think they're gonna try to deploy here
Speaker 1: and throughout the playoffs. They're gonna run the clock all
Speaker 1: the way down, They're gonna try to establish the run.
Speaker 1: They're gonna go dank and dunk, and they're gonna try
Speaker 1: to put together eight nine minute drives. And they did
Speaker 1: it against Buffalo, who's a very familiar team. Buffalo knows
Speaker 1: them well. Buffalo played them tight early in the year.
Speaker 1: Buffalo is a better defense than Tennessee, and they were
Speaker 1: able to pull that off. And if we're talking about
Speaker 1: covering five to get that lead like they did in
Speaker 1: that game, and then you add one late, see you later,
Speaker 1: it's a point spread cover for the Patriots. And come Monday,
Speaker 1: we're all going, why do we bet against the Patriots
Speaker 1: in the playoffs at home against Tennessee. That's what worries
Speaker 1: me about it, because I think that's gonna be the
Speaker 1: game plan. And I think Mike Rabel, while he's got
Speaker 1: the experience of having played for Belichick, I questioned his
Speaker 1: game management. I've seen him in a lot of games
Speaker 1: where he's been late to the draw on six wations
Speaker 1: where he should have set the field goals unit out
Speaker 1: kicked and then gone on side. He doesn't know those
Speaker 1: sort of things. He doesn't act that way. He's a
Speaker 1: he's the he's the old football motivator. He's gonna get
Speaker 1: you fired up. He's gonna put you in a position
Speaker 1: where you're motivating, ready to play. But I don't know
Speaker 1: if he's gonna have the tactics to get by Belichick.
Speaker 1: We're talking about five points in a tight game where
Speaker 1: I could see Brady and New England's finding a way
Speaker 1: to cut out of field goal at the end of
Speaker 1: the first half and then finding out a way to
Speaker 1: make one more played than the Titans of the second half.
Speaker 1: So it's a little bit hesitant for me. It's probably
Speaker 1: a very small lean to New England. But right now,
Speaker 1: I I just I can't find myself on Tennessee just yet.
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with anything anybody's saying about the Titans.
Speaker 1: It's just tough seeing how they've had all this success,
Speaker 1: but against the competition and with which it's come. It's
Speaker 1: not overly impressive to me. Yeah, and I feel I
Speaker 1: feel the same way about what you just said, like
Speaker 1: as as much conviction as I have on Tennessee, and
Speaker 1: it is the most I have of any of these
Speaker 1: four games. Could I see myself Monday morning, very first
Speaker 1: thing on a numbers game at Vicence erious X Channel
Speaker 1: two or four going yep, I bet against Bill Belichick.
Speaker 1: I'm an idiot. The first words out of my mouth absolutely,
Speaker 1: like totally, it's it's so possible. I will say this though,
Speaker 1: if in fact this is the end of the New
Speaker 1: England dynasty, we will point back to last week against
Speaker 1: the Dolphins as ground zero for it, because that's a
Speaker 1: game as a seventeen point favorite. And ESPN even put
Speaker 1: this up, that's the second worst loss visa via the
Speaker 1: betting market, through the lens of the betting markets, the
Speaker 1: second worst loss by defending Super Bowl champion ever by
Speaker 1: seventeen point favorite. I think there was a game in
Speaker 1: nineteen sixty seven that was worse. But that's it. I
Speaker 1: mean that you don't lose a game like that, and
Speaker 1: you certainly don't lose a game like that if you're
Speaker 1: the Patriots and Ryan Fitzpatrick, they could not stop him,
Speaker 1: and they couldn't guard. They couldn't. You know, Stevon Gilmore,
Speaker 1: as great as he was, couldn't check Davante Parker. Everything
Speaker 1: you say, I feel the same way, like there's nothing
Speaker 1: wrong about it. I'm gonna bet my conviction here. I
Speaker 1: think this is the end for New England. I really
Speaker 1: do in Tennessee. I do this off the grid thing,
Speaker 1: this sort of school stock market thing that I rarely
Speaker 1: talk about. But I'm buying on Tennessee here moving forward
Speaker 1: in the postseason, because I think they are a sneaky
Speaker 1: little team moving forward can make some noise. Not gonna
Speaker 1: win at all, but could make some noise in the
Speaker 1: a f C playoffs. Sunday, gentlemen, we switch to the
Speaker 1: NFC again. Really weird this year that both conference games
Speaker 1: for each conference are on their own individual days. So
Speaker 1: two games from the a f C on Saturday, then
Speaker 1: the NFC starts. Remember this is early now on Sunday.
Speaker 1: The games start later on Saturday, but early on Sunday
Speaker 1: as per tradition. One oh five pm Eastern, ten o
Speaker 1: five am Pacific for Minnesota at New Orleans. That's the
Speaker 1: sixth three game in the NFC. Minnesota was already locked
Speaker 1: into the number six position, so like Buffalo for instance,
Speaker 1: in the a f C, they had nothing to play
Speaker 1: for last week they started, Shawn Mann and Kirk Cousins
Speaker 1: got arrest and by the way, Dalvin cooked by injury
Speaker 1: as well. An extra week. New Orleans, Uh, they come
Speaker 1: off a just a absolutely hammering of their opponent. They
Speaker 1: had seeding to play for in week seventeen didn't work
Speaker 1: out for them, so they're stuck with a stround game.
Speaker 1: But what a team to be playing a game wild
Speaker 1: card weekend. New Orleans eight point favorites now consensus. You'll
Speaker 1: you'll see some seven and a half's out there, but
Speaker 1: they're eight point favorites against the Vikings total forty nine
Speaker 1: and a half, teetering on fifty forty nine and a
Speaker 1: half extra juice. Todd start with you, I don't love
Speaker 1: this against the spread pre flap. Yeah, I don't either.
Speaker 1: I mean I would probably put it. I would be
Speaker 1: comfortable putting New Orleans in a teaser down to two,
Speaker 1: but I don't really trust them to to win by eight.
Speaker 1: That's a lot of points against the quality team. Now,
Speaker 1: granted they're going against Kirk Cousins and as we know
Speaker 1: Mr Cousins struggles a bit on the road and especially
Speaker 1: in big spots. UH. Minnesota, to me, UH is the
Speaker 1: kind of team that they can at home, they can
Speaker 1: look very good, although they haven't even looked at great
Speaker 1: at home lately. But on the road they struggle a lot.
Speaker 1: I mean, they lost that Packer game. They looked horrendous
Speaker 1: and that was that was even at home. But I
Speaker 1: just don't really have a lot of faith in Minnesota.
Speaker 1: At the same time, I don't have a lot of
Speaker 1: faith in the Saints that that they're just gonna blow
Speaker 1: people out, you know, at home. So you know, to me,
Speaker 1: this is kind of either a stay away or tease
Speaker 1: it down to two, you know, in this game. Although
Speaker 1: maybe I would lean to the under in this game,
Speaker 1: I would I would maybe lean to the under just
Speaker 1: because you know, you gotta think Minnesota is gonna try
Speaker 1: to run the ball and slow the game down a
Speaker 1: bit on the road against against the Saints, So that's
Speaker 1: where I would probably lean there on the under. New
Speaker 1: Orleans with a thirteen and three record without a first
Speaker 1: round by the NFC just filled with teams with gaudy records.
Speaker 1: Not only New Orleans at thirteen and three. Obviously, San
Speaker 1: Francisco is the number one seed throughout the NFC playoffs
Speaker 1: there at thirteen and three. Green Bay somehow at thirteen
Speaker 1: and three as well. They're the other team with the buy.
Speaker 1: So New Orleans stuck with the extra game. Joe, your
Speaker 1: thoughts here. I'm going to be over in this one,
Speaker 1: and I think Todd's right. If you're Minnesota, you're absolutely
Speaker 1: gonna want to run Dalvin Cook and you're gonna want
Speaker 1: to try to grind the clock and keep the ball
Speaker 1: away from breeze. The problem is if you aren't able
Speaker 1: to do that early and you fall behind, you've got
Speaker 1: to abandon that plan, and you're gonna have to abandon
Speaker 1: it quick because New Orleans has been scoring in bunches
Speaker 1: as of late. Go back to that loss against Atlanta
Speaker 1: in Week ten, when the Falcons came into the Voodoo
Speaker 1: Doome and beat the Saint Nine. Since then, they have
Speaker 1: played seven games. They're averaging thirty six points per game
Speaker 1: during those seven games, scoring thirty four or more in
Speaker 1: six of those games. The offense has been absolutely fantastic,
Speaker 1: but the defense hasn't. And I'll get to that in
Speaker 1: a second. You look at Minnesota. You know them for defense,
Speaker 1: but they're a very different team on the road than
Speaker 1: they are in the dome when they play at home
Speaker 1: and they've got the benefit of the crowd noise, twenty
Speaker 1: eight sacks. You look at their red zone defense, their
Speaker 1: third down defense, points allowed, They're only given up sixteen
Speaker 1: points per game at home, yards per play, five all
Speaker 1: the way across the board. They're one of the best
Speaker 1: in business when they're at home, but when they go
Speaker 1: on the road, they become average to below average. They
Speaker 1: given up about twenty two points per game, five point
Speaker 1: four yards per play, forty five percent third down conversions,
Speaker 1: only twenty stacks, and the red zone conversion of all
Speaker 1: red zone trips result the touchdown versus thirty six percent
Speaker 1: when it's in Minnesota. That's gonna be a really tall
Speaker 1: order for this group led by a corner and Xavier Road,
Speaker 1: who has been victimized all season long. That guy went
Speaker 1: from being one of the premier corners in the league
Speaker 1: to being someone you absolutely pick on every opportunity you get.
Speaker 1: And the States are gonna want to get Michael Thomas
Speaker 1: on via roads as often as possible. So with the
Speaker 1: way the States have been playing, with the urgency with
Speaker 1: the they're bringing in Antonio Brown, they're putting in the
Speaker 1: waiver claim Ontreneurs Jenkins. They know this is the end
Speaker 1: of the line for the Peyton Breeze era. I'm not
Speaker 1: saying Breeze retires after this year, but this might be
Speaker 1: their last best chance. They're they're gonna they're going falls
Speaker 1: to the wall here now in terms of covering eight, No,
Speaker 1: I'm probably not going that far, but I think they're
Speaker 1: gonna get there's which means Minnesota is gonna be in
Speaker 1: faith mode for most of the game, and I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be throwing the ball a lot with Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure how much I trust that, but I
Speaker 1: do know that New Orleans defense, whether they're at home
Speaker 1: or on the road, no matter what the scenario, they're
Speaker 1: not all that great. They're giving up about twenty three
Speaker 1: points per game at home this season. If you're Minnesota,
Speaker 1: you've got to study some of the San Francisco tape
Speaker 1: of what the Niners were doing a few weeks ago,
Speaker 1: because the States aren't aren't bulletproof at home like they
Speaker 1: were in the past. We're doing this podcast five, six,
Speaker 1: eight years ago we're talking about. There's no way get
Speaker 1: bet against the Saints and MS home. There's no way
Speaker 1: you even consider it in the playoffs, but now you will.
Speaker 1: Atlanta went in there and gotta win. Uh. San Francisco
Speaker 1: went in there and gotta win. They struggled early in
Speaker 1: the season against Houston. Seek that one out. They're vulnerable
Speaker 1: and it's because of the defense. So I'm gonna play
Speaker 1: over here over forty nine another play there on the
Speaker 1: over for Joe Um the other one Buffalo Houston has
Speaker 1: gotten away from his bet at forty one and a half,
Speaker 1: but it's at forty four, this one forty nine and
Speaker 1: a half currently, So you uh that price, You would
Speaker 1: make the overplay at forty nine and a half still
Speaker 1: Joe in this one? Yeah? Yes I would? Yeah? Could I?
Speaker 1: I it was forty two and a half where I
Speaker 1: had the build forty two and a half. I'm sorry, okay,
Speaker 1: um it opened one and a half. I did not
Speaker 1: get that. Unfortunately. I said this before the L s
Speaker 1: U Oklahoma game, and I was all over L s
Speaker 1: U as so many people were. But one of the
Speaker 1: comments I made on the show was that I don't
Speaker 1: know any single person that thought Oklahoma could win that
Speaker 1: game out right cover. Yes, I knew a couple of people,
Speaker 1: but to win it out right there wasn't a single
Speaker 1: person that I know, And as it turned out, everyone
Speaker 1: was right not to have that thought with this game.
Speaker 1: I get it, it's a different animal. It's the NFL,
Speaker 1: but it's not the largest spread in the world. I
Speaker 1: don't know one person who thinks Minnesota wins this football
Speaker 1: game out right cover. Maybe, but I haven't run into
Speaker 1: one yet. And as a guy who grew up on
Speaker 1: the Redskins and watched every step that Kirk Cousins had
Speaker 1: there in Washington, if Minnesota loses here, that's two thirds
Speaker 1: of Minnesota's eighty four million dollar contract to Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 1: That is over with. Two thirds of the Kirk Cousins
Speaker 1: experience will be in your rear view. And I'm wondering,
Speaker 1: if Minnesota loses here, and let's say they lose in
Speaker 1: spectacular fashion, do the Vikings make a change at head coach?
Speaker 1: Like there's always one surprise in the NFL. I'm wondering
Speaker 1: if Mike Zimmer might be out and Kevin Somnaski might
Speaker 1: be on his way up. That's something to think about
Speaker 1: here as well. But I don't know one person who
Speaker 1: thinks Minnesota was is out right. Maybe Mike will tell
Speaker 1: me different. I certainly won't. I'll lay the eight here.
Speaker 1: I'm also going to tease him down, but because I
Speaker 1: think it's a good tease, play again him under three.
Speaker 1: But I think they're goodness. Game is not competitive. Um.
Speaker 1: If there was any team mid season I was more
Speaker 1: wrong about this year, it's the Minnesota Vikings. I I
Speaker 1: really thought that because of their balance, and by that
Speaker 1: I mean the ability to run the ball, targets at
Speaker 1: wide receiver and tight end, and a top ten defense, uh,
Speaker 1: that they could even go on the road with Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins because it looked like they were going to have
Speaker 1: trouble winning the division and get to the super Bowl.
Speaker 1: I just don't think that their secondary is an elite secondary.
Speaker 1: I think it's a below average secondary. And I don't
Speaker 1: think their offensive line is as good as I thought.
Speaker 1: I don't know that they can run the ball. Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins is only effective if they can run the ball.
Speaker 1: Look at his numbers on play action versus his numbers
Speaker 1: where he just goes to a seventh step or a
Speaker 1: five step drop. He he is a below average quarterback
Speaker 1: when he just drops back and you know he's throwing
Speaker 1: the ball. I don't think they're gonna be able to
Speaker 1: run the ball in New Orleans. I'm with Joe. I
Speaker 1: think they get behind, and I think this game gets
Speaker 1: out ahead. If you're gonna rely on Kirk Cousins to
Speaker 1: lead you on three touchdown drives in the second half
Speaker 1: to cover this game, that's not a spot I want
Speaker 1: to be. And I think this is a route. So
Speaker 1: I'll lay eight, and I agree with Joe. I think
Speaker 1: it's probably gets over because the Saints will build a
Speaker 1: lead and they will give up give up some points
Speaker 1: in the set in half when Minnesota gets a chase
Speaker 1: mode and by Kevin Stefanski. Of course I met to
Speaker 1: Kevin Stefanski. Let me just point that out as well.
Speaker 1: I will speak to that. I don't think they get
Speaker 1: rid of zimmer Gil even if they get run out
Speaker 1: in this game. I just don't. I think they might
Speaker 1: make some other organizational changes. I even might take that
Speaker 1: they might. I know they paid Kirk Cousins all this money, um,
Speaker 1: but I think because it's more likely that Cousins is
Speaker 1: not there than than Zimmer. I do not think they're
Speaker 1: going away from Zimmer. And in some strange way, I mean,
Speaker 1: I keep getting back to this point on the show
Speaker 1: this year, but in some strange way, it's it's it
Speaker 1: gets always gets back in the NFL economy to this
Speaker 1: point in these quarterbacks careers, which is a pretty recent
Speaker 1: development where it's like Kirk Cousins is up for a contract,
Speaker 1: Jared Goff is now Jamis Winston is and these teams
Speaker 1: are forced, probably prematurely, right before they really have all
Speaker 1: the evidence they need to throw eighty two a hundred
Speaker 1: a hundred twenty million dollars at these guys to know
Speaker 1: if these are really guys that will get them to
Speaker 1: promised Land. And again it gets back, are you a
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame quarterback or are you on a rookie
Speaker 1: contract where you can pay everybody else? Ala Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: and the Seahawks. And I just like the Kirk Cousins thing,
Speaker 1: does it validate the Redskins for not having given him
Speaker 1: a long term contract? Well then you look at the
Speaker 1: Redskins and they've got Dwayne Haskins. So I don't know,
Speaker 1: you know, it's like, Okay, well we didn't do that.
Speaker 1: But this is what we have here, and maybe it
Speaker 1: didn't work out for them, but you know, were the
Speaker 1: Rams right for paying Jared Golf all that money? What
Speaker 1: are the Buccaneers gonna do with Jamis Winston. I guess
Speaker 1: what I'm saying is I just don't think. I think
Speaker 1: the kirk Cousins things shows you where it's like, okay,
Speaker 1: you pay Tom maybe four million, but what did you
Speaker 1: really get out of that. You've got flashes of kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins being great, and then you've got kirk Cousins, you know,
Speaker 1: sort of whiffing on big stages. We'll see what happens
Speaker 1: on Saturday or on Sunday. Rather, he could uh change
Speaker 1: the whole narrative here, I suppose Can I just say
Speaker 1: something real quick please? UM? I think something very important
Speaker 1: UM for gamblers to note is this Mike All did
Speaker 1: something that mark gamblers do, which is realize their wrongness.
Speaker 1: Sometimes malleability in opinions is very important if you're gonna
Speaker 1: be a sucestical gambler. Because a lot of us, I'm
Speaker 1: sure everybody has had this experience. Get on the team
Speaker 1: because the team is either good or very bad, and
Speaker 1: we want to write it, and then all of a
Speaker 1: sudden things shift and they're really not as good or
Speaker 1: not as bad as we thought, and it's hard sometimes
Speaker 1: to get off that that initial mindset. Now, Mikey, if
Speaker 1: me and Mike actually hosted your show UH numbers game
Speaker 1: when you were out a little bit, and I remember
Speaker 1: saying to Mike, Mike, I love everything you have to
Speaker 1: say usually, but I do not like your take on
Speaker 1: this Minnesota Vikings team back then. Um, and he was
Speaker 1: still high on the team at that point, but as
Speaker 1: you you heard him say, he doesn't like it anymore.
Speaker 1: And I think it's something important for all of us
Speaker 1: to note, or for for the new Gambler to note.
Speaker 1: Don't get stuck on a team or stuck on a
Speaker 1: team being very bad or being very good. You have
Speaker 1: to be malleable in your opinion. Basically, don't be Ryan
Speaker 1: paid with the Bears. Don't be Ryan paced with the Bears.
Speaker 1: That's right. And by the way, Mr r Biskey given
Speaker 1: the endorsement for next year he's gonna be their starting
Speaker 1: quarterback or Jerry Jones with the coach. Don't be Jared Jones. Well,
Speaker 1: by the way, Todd, let me just say this that
Speaker 1: sounded like a compliment towards Mike Palm, but quickly ended
Speaker 1: with you saying that you were right back then when
Speaker 1: you first brought it up one second. But I'm wrong
Speaker 1: all the time, and you've heard me say I'm wrong
Speaker 1: on the show, on the Megapod and and a numbers game.
Speaker 1: But it was a compliment to Mike. I do love
Speaker 1: to take shots at Mike and he loves to take
Speaker 1: shots at me because we both like each other. But
Speaker 1: I had to give him credit there, because you know
Speaker 1: a lot of people would just, you know, go down
Speaker 1: with the ship and just say, hey, you know, no,
Speaker 1: Minnesota is great, and Minnesota is great, and even even
Speaker 1: when confronted with the obvious, you know, they they'll they'll
Speaker 1: stick to their guns. And I think too, And that's
Speaker 1: why Mike is a successful gambler. Probably one of the
Speaker 1: reasons is he's willing to, you know, examine his thought
Speaker 1: process as I hope I am, and I hope both
Speaker 1: of you and Joe r as well. Well. I still
Speaker 1: believe r G three will lead the Redskins to a
Speaker 1: Super Bowl? So am I wrong about that? And I
Speaker 1: should like let go of that notion? Yet is that bad?
Speaker 1: I still think that r J three. R J three
Speaker 1: is one, and oh I believe lately he's pretty pretty
Speaker 1: darned solid r G three as well. Yeah. No, we
Speaker 1: we used to have a megapodh staple that the year
Speaker 1: the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, he went to the
Speaker 1: end saying that they were a fraud team. It was
Speaker 1: just like it was so it was so ridiculous. As
Speaker 1: the year went on, You're like, yeah, I think you're
Speaker 1: He's like, maybe I'm missing something, and be like, yep, no,
Speaker 1: I think you are. I think you are missing something
Speaker 1: on the Seahawks. So you're right that Jil Jil. You
Speaker 1: know this, this this Minnesota team. People don't think about
Speaker 1: this game as much, but the game that they beat
Speaker 1: David Blow seven at home, which should have really been
Speaker 1: a lot of red flags to people. I mean, in
Speaker 1: that game, David Blow couldn't throw the ball from from
Speaker 1: you to Todd in the studio there uh and and
Speaker 1: people cardy this dismissed that because they won by thirteen,
Speaker 1: and but it showed a lot of signs about their
Speaker 1: offensive line. They couldn't run the ball, Cousins had no rhythm.
Speaker 1: And then that performance against the Packers I mean they
Speaker 1: got six first downs at home on a Monday night
Speaker 1: game where they still had the shot to get the
Speaker 1: five seat and put pressure on the Packers to maybe
Speaker 1: even win the division in a game at Detroit the
Speaker 1: next week that nobody thought would be close. But with
Speaker 1: life in depth, so um, their whole last quarter of
Speaker 1: the season has been abysmal. They made the Packers defense,
Speaker 1: who we were killing right week after week, looked like
Speaker 1: the five Bears that night. Couldn't couldn't blog at all. Um.
Speaker 1: By the way, Dalvin Cook says he's at full strength
Speaker 1: for this game. Just want to update that. Uh, as
Speaker 1: far as these games, if I had had a guessing lines,
Speaker 1: I don't do guessing lines to beyond the regular season,
Speaker 1: but if I had guessing lines this week, I would
Speaker 1: have guessed Houston minus three versus Buffalo, because I don't
Speaker 1: think you could have made that anything else. That's where
Speaker 1: it open. It's minus two and a half. Now I
Speaker 1: had New England minus four and a half. It's right
Speaker 1: around five. Now it's hovering. There has been hovering. I
Speaker 1: had New Orleans minus seven. I was low there, so
Speaker 1: it was it was a tick higher than seven. This
Speaker 1: is the game, right, here the fourth and final game
Speaker 1: where I had the wrong team favored. Initially I had
Speaker 1: Seattle favored. It came out Philadelphia minus one and a half.
Speaker 1: I believe it's now Seattle minus one and a half.
Speaker 1: I actually it's it's probably consensus to now still consensus
Speaker 1: one and a half, but it's teetering on two now.
Speaker 1: Both of these teams are mash units. The biggest thing
Speaker 1: in this game is to to look at the injury
Speaker 1: report to see who's going to play. It looks like
Speaker 1: Davian Clowney is in for the Seahawks, so is Ziggy
Speaker 1: Anza on defense. Those are big for the Seahawks. We'll
Speaker 1: see if Philadelphia gets any of these guys back. DeShawn
Speaker 1: Jackson is out. He will not play this week. He
Speaker 1: will play in a divisional round game if Philadelphia is
Speaker 1: fortunate enough to get by Seattle. But this is the
Speaker 1: one that I had the most wrong based on the
Speaker 1: initial line. Joe, your thoughts here on a five four
Speaker 1: game in the NFC, All right, so let's start with this.
Speaker 1: I'm a born and raised Philadelphia Eagles fans. I've got
Speaker 1: to get that out there, and I'm gonna come right
Speaker 1: out and give you the pick um. I'm playing Seattle,
Speaker 1: and I gotta be honest about that, because I don't
Speaker 1: know if this is my internal my subconscious trying to
Speaker 1: tell me to emotionally head this so I come away
Speaker 1: with something in some regards, right, Like, I'm so twisted
Speaker 1: up by this game. Shouldn't listen to much of what
Speaker 1: I have to say. Here's here's what I'll tell you.
Speaker 1: I see a lot of people coming around on the Eagles,
Speaker 1: and I wonder why. I wonder why I love this team.
Speaker 1: I'm happy they're in the playoffs. I'm so thrilled at
Speaker 1: the prospect that if they win this game, they'll play
Speaker 1: the Niners and will be right in my backyard. But
Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, they didn't beat shipped down the stretch.
Speaker 1: They didn't eat anybody. They won these four games that
Speaker 1: everyone's talking about all it's four game winning streak. They
Speaker 1: beat the Giants twice, the Redskins, and the Cowboys, And
Speaker 1: as soon as Jerry Jones pulls the trigger, they'll have
Speaker 1: beaten three teams in four games that all fired their
Speaker 1: head coaches to end the season. Right, Like, It's not
Speaker 1: like they went out there and they went through and
Speaker 1: beat anyone great. They beat really bad teams and in
Speaker 1: the process they made it look really tough. And at
Speaker 1: least two of those games the first two outs. Now
Speaker 1: you mentioned the injuries, but the ones you didn't mention.
Speaker 1: Brandon Brooks, the All Pro or the Pro Bowl offensive guard.
Speaker 1: He injured his shoulder last week. He's out for this game.
Speaker 1: Miles Sanders is battling and ankle injury. And zach Ertz
Speaker 1: may not play. And I know he's around in practice,
Speaker 1: he's getting what they're calling mental reps. But he's got
Speaker 1: a lacerated kidney and a fractured riff. So sure, maybe
Speaker 1: he's gonna go out there and play, but he's not
Speaker 1: gonna be the zach Ertz that led the team in targets, receptions,
Speaker 1: receiving yards, and touchdowns. And that's a huge blow because
Speaker 1: these guys don't have any receivers. They didn't have a
Speaker 1: single receiver record more than four nine receiving yards this year.
Speaker 1: That's all Sean Jeffrey. He's not playing in this game either.
Speaker 1: So Carson Wentz has done an amazing job. But the
Speaker 1: old lines banged up. Most of your running backs are hurt.
Speaker 1: You've got no receivers, your top pass catching options hurt.
Speaker 1: And what people will say as well, you know, Seattle
Speaker 1: hurt who they are, they are at the running back position.
Speaker 1: But you're not gonna run against Philly anyway. They're a
Speaker 1: top five run defense. If Seattle's plan was to come
Speaker 1: into Philadelphia and run the ball with anyone other than
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, I got news for you. You're gonna lose
Speaker 1: that game. This comes down the Russell Wilson. He's got
Speaker 1: healthy wide receivers and while Seattle's defense is questionable, Um,
Speaker 1: this is just such a messy game. I'm really just
Speaker 1: betting on one guy. I'm looking at Russell Wilson. The
Speaker 1: fact that there's seven and one on the road this season,
Speaker 1: I think they're what five one and one against the
Speaker 1: spread on the road this season, They've done really well.
Speaker 1: They've made five. This is gonna be their sixth trip
Speaker 1: to the Eastern time zone this year. Six trips the
Speaker 1: previous five they played Philly, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Carolina, Atlanta. They
Speaker 1: want all of them. Um. And here's another note, and
Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw this out there because I find it fascinating,
Speaker 1: But it's a trend that I'm sure a lot of
Speaker 1: people say it doesn't matter, and I'm not saying it
Speaker 1: does matter. I just find this fascinating. Teams coming off
Speaker 1: the game this year against the Niners, right, play the
Speaker 1: Niners and then play the next week, No boys, those
Speaker 1: teams are a elevan one and one against the spread,
Speaker 1: eleven one and one. I got a feeling that the
Speaker 1: Niners are the Niners came into this season and no
Speaker 1: one thought of them as much better than eight and
Speaker 1: eight or nine and seven, and because they took the
Speaker 1: league by storm. When they're hammering these teams, it's giving
Speaker 1: us the perception that the teams they're beating up aren't
Speaker 1: as good. But it turns out those teams, it's not
Speaker 1: like those teams are bad teams. They're just getting beat
Speaker 1: by a team we don't think it is good. And
Speaker 1: I think maybe that perception is having an effect the
Speaker 1: way people bet the following week. And then for some reason,
Speaker 1: these teams are having an advantage because they're eleven one
Speaker 1: and one against the spread the week after playing the
Speaker 1: Niners this year. So again, not a game I love,
Speaker 1: And there's a lot of bias and a lot of
Speaker 1: mental mumbo jumbo going on in my head to this game,
Speaker 1: but I would play Seattle. Seattle is the play on making. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I I bet the Niners by the way to win
Speaker 1: the NFC and plus money the other day. Uh, hammered
Speaker 1: that one because I really do like the Niners to
Speaker 1: get out of the NFC. I agree with pretty much
Speaker 1: everything you just said, Joe, and I don't you know,
Speaker 1: your Philadelphia Eagles defeatism reminds me of my Washington Redskins defeatism,
Speaker 1: although your team is actually pretty good. Um, but we
Speaker 1: don't put those two in the same category. Don't ever
Speaker 1: do that again. Yeah, I'm sorry. Lane Johnson another one
Speaker 1: we didn't mention. He took a few plays yesterday and
Speaker 1: walked through not sure of his status for the Eagles.
Speaker 1: And it deserves to be mentioned that the last time
Speaker 1: these two teams played, although the score was only Seattle
Speaker 1: seventeen and nine, Seattle kind of dominated them. So I'm
Speaker 1: with you there, Mike gil This is uh, this is
Speaker 1: a game that I have to go back to the
Speaker 1: first game, and um, you know, both teams are less
Speaker 1: healthy than they were the first game offensively for sure,
Speaker 1: especially with Seattle. I mean, remember this was Richard Penny's
Speaker 1: breakout game in the NFL. Yes, this is where he exploded.
Speaker 1: I mean he had two long runs that were essentially
Speaker 1: the only offense in the whole game for either side.
Speaker 1: With two minutes to go, Seattle just dropped their their
Speaker 1: dvs twenty yards off the line and played Nickel and
Speaker 1: let Philly have a touchdown drive that ended the game.
Speaker 1: And it finished seventeen to nine. Now the total comes
Speaker 1: back forty six. Now, I may have made more money
Speaker 1: on this game than any other in the NFL all year.
Speaker 1: I never stopped in gaming the under um and in
Speaker 1: this game from the first quarter on, and I could
Speaker 1: not believe it comes back forty six. I really thought
Speaker 1: this game would be right around forty maybe forty and
Speaker 1: a half. I have to play the under here as
Speaker 1: far as the side goes, I can't pull the trigger
Speaker 1: on Seattle. Yes, I agree with you, Joe, who has
Speaker 1: Philadelphia beaten the least of the East right that this
Speaker 1: whole home stretch. But I'm still I still have to
Speaker 1: give credit to Wins and to Peterson for his banged
Speaker 1: up they were and playing guys like Boston Scott that
Speaker 1: we don't know anything about. That they have been relatively
Speaker 1: effective on offense enough at least to win these games.
Speaker 1: I thought their defensive performance against the Cowboys, I mean,
Speaker 1: scoring ten points in the first quarter, basically that game
Speaker 1: was over. Yes, was Dak hurt? Was he was? He
Speaker 1: banged up a little bit. Uh, we taught. They talked
Speaker 1: about it all going into the game. But still to
Speaker 1: hold the Cowboys to to to you know, without a
Speaker 1: touchdown for four quarters was impressive to me. So it's
Speaker 1: really hard to choose a side. I just I'm not
Speaker 1: with everybody that's that this should be a Seattle game,
Speaker 1: so I have to go with just strictly the under.
Speaker 1: I always remember what Troy Aikman said after that Eagles
Speaker 1: Cowboys game where he was just gushing over the Eagles,
Speaker 1: you know, in a mass unit winning that game. He said,
Speaker 1: quote maybe the best team win I've ever seen given
Speaker 1: the stakes unquote, which I thought was certainly hyperbole like
Speaker 1: that was he was, he was impressed. But to your point,
Speaker 1: not only you know, even in that victory they scored
Speaker 1: seventeen total points. But as Todd, I'm sure we'll tell
Speaker 1: you here momentarily, and Todd, forgive me for stealing your
Speaker 1: thunder if you were going with this, that four game
Speaker 1: winning streak. Think just as easily lost two of those, right,
Speaker 1: like the Redskins were driving or the Redskins probably should
Speaker 1: have won that game. I know they lost by two
Speaker 1: scores and lost against the spread because that Dwayne Askins
Speaker 1: nonsense on the final play. But that game was nip
Speaker 1: and tuck and the Giants. The first Giants game, they
Speaker 1: were down two touchdowns at halftime. Todd apologize if I
Speaker 1: still thunder with that, I no, I mean that everything
Speaker 1: everybody has said here I agree with. I'm in total
Speaker 1: agreement with Joe that they did not beat anyone. The
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles are not a good football team. They lost
Speaker 1: a two touchdown lead on the road at Miami. Okay, Um,
Speaker 1: the Eagles have done again everything. They're pulling out every
Speaker 1: stop to squeak by these teams they have, you know,
Speaker 1: that are not good. The Redskins are obviously not good.
Speaker 1: The Giants they're down two touchdowns in the second half too,
Speaker 1: and even last week they were life and death in
Speaker 1: the third quarter in a tie game against the Giants.
Speaker 1: So I am not at all, uh, you know, impressed
Speaker 1: with the Eagles. Maybe it's because they're all injured. Maybe
Speaker 1: it's whatever. The bottom line is, they're not a good
Speaker 1: football team now. Seattle, I I like, I got. I
Speaker 1: started to get concerned with them when they got beaten
Speaker 1: up by Arizona two games ago, and in the first
Speaker 1: half against San Francisco when they were just horrendous and
Speaker 1: it was thirteen nothing at the half. But the second
Speaker 1: half by Russell Wilson in last week's game, you know,
Speaker 1: makes me think, okay, all is right with the world again.
Speaker 1: And if you watch the first Seattle Philadelphia game, as
Speaker 1: I did intently, as I had the Eagles plus ten
Speaker 1: on one of my ten point teasers, I was so
Speaker 1: lucky that the final score was seventeen to nine in
Speaker 1: that game, because it was seventeen to three the entire game,
Speaker 1: which twenty seconds left. The Eagles got a touchdown at
Speaker 1: the way end. But and Seattle literally could have won
Speaker 1: that game thirty four to three easily, easily. So to me,
Speaker 1: you know, the Eagles have had a tough year. It's
Speaker 1: been it hasn't been a typical you know Eagles from
Speaker 1: the last couple of years. A year, and they're just
Speaker 1: not a good team. And Seattle, to me, you've got
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson. You just have to win the game. That's
Speaker 1: all they gotta do. Just win the game. I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna win the game. I think you're right, and
Speaker 1: and it is taking nothing away from the Eagles who
Speaker 1: have you know, Sprawls Jackson, Jeffrey Malik Jackson, Jordan how Nelson,
Speaker 1: aguilor Lane Johnson. I mean, I'm forgetting guys that are
Speaker 1: you know, that have been knocked out this year, and
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz has been spectacular down the stretch, So there's
Speaker 1: you're taking nothing away from them. But in the end,
Speaker 1: I don't think they have enough either. Support for today's
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Speaker 1: don't miss out as we go at at these games.
Speaker 1: Now the final questions, guys, well, let's start with the
Speaker 1: teaser first, the teaser question. If you had to play
Speaker 1: one two team six point teaser, what two teams would
Speaker 1: you play? Joe min New Orleans, without question knocked that
Speaker 1: one from eight down to two. I agree with a
Speaker 1: lot of what what Mike said earlier. If I just
Speaker 1: had to make a play on the side in this game,
Speaker 1: I'd be more inclined to play the Saints then I
Speaker 1: would the Vikings. And obviously this move puts you through seven,
Speaker 1: it puts you through four, it puts you through three
Speaker 1: down to two, So I think that's a relatively safe side.
Speaker 1: And then I'd matched that up with Buffalo going the
Speaker 1: other way. So even at two and a half, you're
Speaker 1: going through three, four, seven, and you get it up
Speaker 1: to eight and a half, what many of your saying
Speaker 1: is gonna be a lower scoring game. I lean up
Speaker 1: to the over obviously in that game, but I would
Speaker 1: say my tease would be Buffalo in New Orleans. I
Speaker 1: think that's the obvious one, but that's the one I
Speaker 1: feel stage just with Yep. I think that's mine to
Speaker 1: Buffalo New Orleans. If I was getting frisky, I might
Speaker 1: even do a three teamer and put Tennessee in there,
Speaker 1: But Buffalo New Orleans would be my answer for the
Speaker 1: two teamer. Mike, I'm gonna go with the Saints and
Speaker 1: the and the Titans. I'll take the Saints down to two,
Speaker 1: and I'll tell I just don't know, maybe Houston will
Speaker 1: play very well in that game against Buffalo. UM. So
Speaker 1: if I had to choose, I'd rather take Tennessee up
Speaker 1: to eleven and then take Buffalo up to eight and
Speaker 1: a half. I don't hate it, Todd, I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with the the one. U. It seems like we're all
Speaker 1: very interested in which is the Buffalo up to eight
Speaker 1: and the Saints down to two. Uh, to me, it
Speaker 1: just seems too too good. Okay, real quick, obviously that's
Speaker 1: the normal question that I that I asked here. Which
Speaker 1: of the big favorites is the most likely to lose?
Speaker 1: Out right is not exactly applicable, So I'll just make
Speaker 1: it into which of the dogs do you think is
Speaker 1: the most likely or which of the favorites, Just to
Speaker 1: put it in the same sort of terms, which of
Speaker 1: the favorites of any kind here of the four games
Speaker 1: do you think it's the most likely to lose outright? Houston,
Speaker 1: New England, New war Lands or Seattle? Joe. Uh, that's Oh,
Speaker 1: that's a good one. That's a good one. I guess
Speaker 1: my first lean there was to go with, um, was
Speaker 1: to go with I don't losing that game. But to
Speaker 1: tell you the truth, that is Houston, I would say Houston.
Speaker 1: I think Buffalo is gonna be a formidable challenge. I
Speaker 1: think it was Todd that was talking about it earlier.
Speaker 1: When it comes to gill Obrian, this Houston team. There's
Speaker 1: a reason the a f C South always gets the
Speaker 1: first wild card games. It's because nobody has any faith
Speaker 1: in those teams and quite frankly, no one wants to
Speaker 1: watch them. Every year the first wild card game, and
Speaker 1: it's almost always the Texans. In fact, one year was
Speaker 1: actually Houston Indianapolis. You've got two a f D teams
Speaker 1: a FC South teams in the first game. But they
Speaker 1: do this for a reason. And Buffalo is not sexy.
Speaker 1: But Buffalo does a couple of things that you need
Speaker 1: to do to be able to win on the road,
Speaker 1: and that's play defense and run the ball. They can
Speaker 1: play some really good defense and they can run the football.
Speaker 1: Josh Allen worries me, but that's I'm gonna be the
Speaker 1: least bit surprised if Houston ends up losing that game. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think it's Houston for me too. And you're right
Speaker 1: about the a f C South thing. Indianapolis just destroyed
Speaker 1: Houston last year. Houston has success in these games when
Speaker 1: Cincinnati's on the other side of the field. That's who
Speaker 1: they love to put in these games. Mike, same question.
Speaker 1: I think it's Seattle. Um, I can't do. You know
Speaker 1: what I can't get out of my head the fact
Speaker 1: that in the second half in Week sixteen, Brett Hunley
Speaker 1: moved the ball and scored points against that defense. Brett
Speaker 1: Hunley let couldn't win a game when Rogers was out
Speaker 1: for years. He couldn't cover a game. They were never competitive.
Speaker 1: The guy was awful. I kept saying, why does he
Speaker 1: getting these backup jobs? He went up and down the
Speaker 1: field against the Seahawks. I think Philly can win this game. Wow, Todd,
Speaker 1: you know what, I'm gonna say something crazy. I'm going
Speaker 1: against Bill Bellichick. I really think, I really that this
Speaker 1: is not the same story. This reminds me of the
Speaker 1: year they they and it's even worse, actually, but it
Speaker 1: reminds me a little bit of the year they went
Speaker 1: to Enver with Peyton Manning couldn't even throw the ball
Speaker 1: and they lost twenty to fifteen in the playoffs. But
Speaker 1: I think it's even worse now. I don't think that
Speaker 1: losing the game to Miami at home when you're a
Speaker 1: seventeen point favorite, and the way they had to beat
Speaker 1: the Bills that Bill's game. He was doing everything he
Speaker 1: could to come up with a way to figure out
Speaker 1: how to beat the Bills. I think he can lose
Speaker 1: the game out right. I know it's it's a crazy
Speaker 1: thing to think that that Bill Belichick could lose a
Speaker 1: playoff game at home. And you know, I'll the first
Speaker 1: one to say Bill Beltchick is amazing. But I mean
Speaker 1: you put a guy with no talent at the receiver position.
Speaker 1: I mean they were startgling on offense against the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengal scored two touchdown forty seconds against the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: I mean, give me a break. They might lose this game. Honestly,
Speaker 1: I can't believe I'm saying it, but I really think
Speaker 1: they could lose it. No, I'm I'm betting Tennessee on
Speaker 1: the money line as well, in a condition to a
Speaker 1: t S. But then you know I always I wait
Speaker 1: a beat and then I go cut to a shot
Speaker 1: of us Monday morning. You know, just like we're assholes
Speaker 1: we bet against Bell and Jake. But I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I I New England. I'm I'm betting
Speaker 1: against New England against the spread. But I still would
Speaker 1: say Houston against Buffalo. I still would say Houston. But
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with your opinion either. On that final
Speaker 1: question here, let's say you had to bet a side
Speaker 1: on three out of the four of these you were
Speaker 1: forced to. What's the game you want no part of?
Speaker 1: Joe on the side. That would be that would probably
Speaker 1: that'd be Tennessee New England. As I'm confident with Buffalo.
Speaker 1: I'm confident with Buffalo, I go ahead and play Seattle
Speaker 1: like I talked about earlier, and if it comes down
Speaker 1: to the other two, I probably Like with Mike earlier,
Speaker 1: he laid out a lot of great points. I just
Speaker 1: I'd lay the eight with New Orleans knowing that they're
Speaker 1: playing really well. And I've seen Kirk Cousins just I
Speaker 1: tried to defend Kirk Cousins at Nauseam this year. I
Speaker 1: tried to play him in that game at Seattle and
Speaker 1: he played well, but we ended up losing. And then
Speaker 1: I played him in the game against Green Day on
Speaker 1: Monday night and he played terrible. It's like, if he
Speaker 1: can't get it done, someone around him lets him down,
Speaker 1: and if if everyone else around him is playing well,
Speaker 1: he can't handle it. Like whatever it is, you're going
Speaker 1: into New Orleans, like of all places, if they were
Speaker 1: going and I know this can't possibly have him, but
Speaker 1: like they were going to Houston, like that would be
Speaker 1: the type of situation where I'd say, all right, I
Speaker 1: could see Minnesota finding a way to look sharp in
Speaker 1: this game. But New Orleans they get behind early, then
Speaker 1: it's on Cousins. So there's a moment with Kirk Cousins
Speaker 1: that I cannot get out of my mind, and it
Speaker 1: makes you wonder why I continue to bet on him
Speaker 1: after this moment. It was in the game against Kansas
Speaker 1: City when they went against Matt Moore and they lost
Speaker 1: that game. At the end of the first half, the
Speaker 1: Vikings drove the ball down the field. They got inside
Speaker 1: the twenty. They were up against the clock, and they
Speaker 1: basically had it figured out where they had three plays
Speaker 1: at the end zone and then they'd have to kick.
Speaker 1: They had enough time, and on all three plays Cousins
Speaker 1: airmailed that ball out of the end zone. If you
Speaker 1: if you were watching this game and you were betting
Speaker 1: this game in any capacity on Minnesota, you were staring
Speaker 1: at Cousins, you could tell he wanted no part in
Speaker 1: possibly throwing an interception at the end of the half.
Speaker 1: He was going out of his way to play for
Speaker 1: the field goal. There were that were open, there were
Speaker 1: pro throws that could have been made, but he wanted
Speaker 1: nothing to do with the scenario. There's something about that
Speaker 1: guy that when the moment calls upon him, he just
Speaker 1: isn't there. It's too much for him to handle. And
Speaker 1: New Orleans is the wrong place to be if that's
Speaker 1: the scenario. So I would say, if there was one
Speaker 1: game to stay away from, sidewise, I'm probably staying away
Speaker 1: from New England. Tennessee. These are all my Kirk Cousins
Speaker 1: talking points when he was a member of the Redskins.
Speaker 1: He can get stats, but in crunch time, when the
Speaker 1: decisions are the most important, he is not your guy.
Speaker 1: So Tennessee, New England is the one that Joe would
Speaker 1: steer claar of Mike. Uh. For me, it's the Buffalo
Speaker 1: Houston game, because I just I still think Houston can
Speaker 1: be really good. I still think they have so much talent.
Speaker 1: I'm with Todd, I don't I don't love Bill O'Brien. Um,
Speaker 1: but I can't bet that game pre flop. I can
Speaker 1: bet bet the other three. I'll just add this, Joe.
Speaker 1: You know, the last time Kirk Cousins made a pass
Speaker 1: to win a game was the Hail Mary against Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson in East Lansing. In East Lansing, I remember it
Speaker 1: like it was anything but yet, um my answer to
Speaker 1: both of these questions is the same. The favorite I
Speaker 1: think is most likely to lose that right is is
Speaker 1: Houston just do an avoid favorite and the game. I
Speaker 1: would want no part of his Buffalo Houston because, as
Speaker 1: I said at the beginning, I could see such a
Speaker 1: disparate outcomes in this game, Todd, I think that New
Speaker 1: Orleans I don't want to get I was when Joe's
Speaker 1: city like the over and I said I was leaning
Speaker 1: to the under. I'm thinking that Minnesota cannot afford to
Speaker 1: get behind in this game and play from the chase mode,
Speaker 1: and that the thing was in the back of my
Speaker 1: head was, well, what if they get behind and have
Speaker 1: to play from chase mode, which is exactly what Joe said,
Speaker 1: and that would be dangerous. The only thing is, the
Speaker 1: reason I still kind of leaned to the under on
Speaker 1: that game was because I could see Minnesota just laying
Speaker 1: a complete egg and like they did against the Packers
Speaker 1: and not being able to score more than thirteen points,
Speaker 1: and then it could still go under even if New
Speaker 1: Orleans explodeste or something like that. So I don't want
Speaker 1: any part of this game because there's still a part
Speaker 1: of me that thinks that um Zimmer might just do
Speaker 1: everything in his power to slow this game down, trying
Speaker 1: to keep it tight, and so that's why I don't
Speaker 1: really want to play this game at all. All right, boys,
Speaker 1: we've done all we can do. Mikey Todd, thank you
Speaker 1: as always. We'll do the division round next week. Joe
Speaker 1: foreign Baugh Joe my man. Uh. The longest tenured Megapod
Speaker 1: guests there ever was Um. We appreciate it as always.
Speaker 1: Thank you, man. I appreciate you doing it. It It was
Speaker 1: not at a desperation, it was because you were the
Speaker 1: guy I wanted. Congratulations on everything with Joe Low and
Speaker 1: Dims and of course at daily Wager Man, thank you
Speaker 1: for doing this. The pleasures, oh my Gil, it's it's
Speaker 1: the one thing I love the most about coming on
Speaker 1: with all these years, whether it was the earlier version
Speaker 1: of this version. I'm learning so much. I'm literally and
Speaker 1: I'm not lying when I say this. I take notes
Speaker 1: when I'm listening to everyone, but you, I don't really
Speaker 1: care what you have to say. Like the other guys.
Speaker 1: I'm always taking notes because I know I'm gonna learn
Speaker 1: something and I'm gonna pick up some buggets. So thank
Speaker 1: you to you guys. And kill as well. You're you're
Speaker 1: a real men's thank keep rabbing me on. Thank you Joe,
Speaker 1: and thank you for going Yiddish for Joe, for Mike,
Speaker 1: for Todd, kill alexand thank you so much for listening.
Speaker 1: Good luck with all your bets this wild card we
Speaker 1: get at the NFL