WEBVTT - Does Ranked Choice Voting Work? Plus, New AI Predictions 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:26.004 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:26.044 --> 0:00:28.684 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 0:00:28.444 --> 0:00:29.364 And I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:31.724 --> 0:00:33.604 Nate. We are both in Vegas. So we're going to 0:00:33.604 --> 0:00:36.404 start the show off with a little update of how 0:00:36.524 --> 0:00:39.644 our first week of the world series has been going, 0:00:39.724 --> 0:00:42.004 whether we are still as bright eyed and bushy tailed 0:00:42.044 --> 0:00:44.644 as if we were this time last week. And then 0:00:45.084 --> 0:00:47.484 we'll talk a little bit of politics, right, Yeah. 0:00:47.284 --> 0:00:49.684 We'll talk about rank choice voting its implications for the 0:00:49.724 --> 0:00:51.844 Democratic mayoral primary which is coming up in New York 0:00:51.884 --> 0:00:53.964 as well. It's a little bit more abstractifying that in 0:00:54.044 --> 0:00:56.484 terms of is this a good system, what does it 0:00:56.524 --> 0:00:59.164 reward or punish? And then we'll talk about AI a 0:00:59.204 --> 0:01:00.964 little bit, I know, a frequent topic on this show. 0:01:01.004 --> 0:01:03.964 I was recently at the Manifest conference in Berkeley, California 0:01:04.044 --> 0:01:06.164 before it came out here to Vegas. A little bit 0:01:06.164 --> 0:01:08.324 of an update on the AI twenty twenty seven report, 0:01:08.364 --> 0:01:10.804 which we talked about on a previous episode, and just 0:01:10.884 --> 0:01:13.364 kind of how we're feeling about pe doom and kind 0:01:13.364 --> 0:01:15.764 of how the Silicon Valley community is adjusting to the 0:01:15.804 --> 0:01:17.404 constant developments in the sector. 0:01:17.724 --> 0:01:19.924 Yeah, I'm looking forward to hearing what you learned at 0:01:19.964 --> 0:01:23.804 that conference. But let's start a little closer to home 0:01:23.924 --> 0:01:30.604 and talk about pe doom of our bank rolls. So, Wsophie, 0:01:30.844 --> 0:01:33.284 how has week one treated unit? 0:01:34.084 --> 0:01:37.644 So? I have fired fifteen bullets. I know it's a 0:01:37.724 --> 0:01:40.244 violent metaphor. We're not super PC here, but a bullet 0:01:40.284 --> 0:01:42.844 in a poker term is like an entry into a tournament. Right, 0:01:42.844 --> 0:01:46.284 So I probably entered ten tournaments, because you can enter 0:01:46.284 --> 0:01:50.804 some multiple times. I've had fifteen entrees into those ten tournaments. 0:01:51.124 --> 0:01:54.324 Of those fifteen entries, I've had three caches or twenty percent, 0:01:54.364 --> 0:01:58.244 which is pretty typical. Right. You're typically cash, depending on 0:01:58.244 --> 0:01:59.604 the tournament, twelve to fifty percent of the time. So 0:01:59.604 --> 0:02:00.964 I guess a little bit above average. 0:02:01.004 --> 0:02:01.124 Right. 0:02:01.204 --> 0:02:04.764 However, here's why it's hard to make money in the 0:02:04.804 --> 0:02:06.924 short run, the medium run in poker tournaments. 0:02:06.964 --> 0:02:08.764 Right, in the short run, the medium run in the 0:02:08.764 --> 0:02:10.564 long run. 0:02:09.924 --> 0:02:15.084 Period number one, even if you outlast ninety five percent 0:02:15.964 --> 0:02:19.124 of people, you often only make broughly like two times 0:02:19.204 --> 0:02:21.924 or maybe more than that. Right, So if you invest 0:02:21.964 --> 0:02:24.284 fifteen hundred dollars in a tournament and you make it 0:02:24.324 --> 0:02:27.564 to like the ninety fourth percent diile, the prize might 0:02:27.604 --> 0:02:30.804 be for to have one hundred so net of the 0:02:30.804 --> 0:02:33.364 fifteen hundred you paid to enter, right if you entered 0:02:33.364 --> 0:02:36.164 twice and like so like. Basically, it's a very top 0:02:36.164 --> 0:02:38.044 heavy structure where you have to get into like the 0:02:38.084 --> 0:02:42.524 top two percent, or you have to run good and 0:02:42.564 --> 0:02:45.564 cash in the more expensive events. Right, So the cashes 0:02:45.604 --> 0:02:47.644 I have are in an eight hundred dollars event, fifteen 0:02:47.684 --> 0:02:50.164 hundred dollars event, a eleven hundred dollars event. I also 0:02:50.284 --> 0:02:53.324 entered a ten thousand dollars event that like quick Exit 0:02:53.484 --> 0:02:55.724 three thousand dollars event quick Exit, right, you have those 0:02:56.084 --> 0:02:58.804 Basically either have to run really really deep or have 0:02:58.924 --> 0:03:01.724 your cash as being your higher buying events. I've done either. 0:03:01.844 --> 0:03:03.684 Therefore I can say, oh, I have cash plenty. I've 0:03:03.684 --> 0:03:05.724 been in the running, been in the mix, but like 0:03:05.884 --> 0:03:07.764 still down money and that's often very typical. 0:03:07.764 --> 0:03:12.004 How about you, Maria, So I have not played nearly 0:03:12.044 --> 0:03:15.324 as many live events as you. I only have one 0:03:15.364 --> 0:03:18.804 live cash so that was the first event that I played, 0:03:19.764 --> 0:03:22.964 the eight hundred, and then I played the three thousand 0:03:23.004 --> 0:03:26.844 dollars freeze out and did not cash that and the 0:03:26.884 --> 0:03:29.924 monster stacks. As you know, Nate, that did not go 0:03:30.044 --> 0:03:31.564 well for me. That was one of the ones that 0:03:31.604 --> 0:03:35.644 you cashed. And then yesterday I played the three thousand dollars. 0:03:36.804 --> 0:03:39.724 Basically it was a turbo, and you played that as well, 0:03:39.844 --> 0:03:42.484 and neither one of us cashed. Luckily, I only had 0:03:42.524 --> 0:03:46.644 to fire one bullet. I was unable to revise, so 0:03:46.684 --> 0:03:49.524 that's good. That saved me three thousand. However, what has 0:03:49.644 --> 0:03:53.404 kind of saved my last week is online. So I 0:03:53.444 --> 0:03:57.804 fired a few of the online events, came in fifty 0:03:57.844 --> 0:04:00.604 seventh out of like twelve hundred or so in one 0:04:00.604 --> 0:04:02.764 of them for about three thousand dollars. And then last 0:04:02.844 --> 0:04:06.164 night came in seventh firing a three hundred and fifteen 0:04:06.244 --> 0:04:09.004 dollars event or three hundred and twenty. And that was 0:04:09.084 --> 0:04:12.204 very or sweet because seventh was about seven thousand dollars, 0:04:13.044 --> 0:04:15.084 which is a great ROI it was only in for 0:04:15.124 --> 0:04:17.764 one bullet, right, you pay three hundred and twenty dollars 0:04:17.764 --> 0:04:21.284 and you get seven thousand, which is amazing. First, as 0:04:21.324 --> 0:04:23.644 you know, would have been a lot more. And I 0:04:23.684 --> 0:04:26.004 was very proud of myself for getting that far because 0:04:26.084 --> 0:04:29.724 I had an incredibly short stack. Basically the entire time, 0:04:30.084 --> 0:04:33.204 I just kind of never had chips to work with, 0:04:33.244 --> 0:04:36.364 and I ended up making it quite far. But that 0:04:36.484 --> 0:04:39.204 kind of saved my my week a little bit because 0:04:39.804 --> 0:04:42.604 live has not been going well, well, it's been going 0:04:42.764 --> 0:04:45.404 you know, it's a tiny sample size, right, This is 0:04:45.484 --> 0:04:48.124 kind of what you have to understand that you need 0:04:48.164 --> 0:04:51.844 to kind of think of things in a bigger picture 0:04:51.924 --> 0:04:55.564 as opposed to touch just saying oh, I've only because 0:04:55.564 --> 0:04:59.204 I've only played four live events, right, So the fact 0:04:59.204 --> 0:05:01.364 that I, yeah, so the fact that I catched. 0:05:01.084 --> 0:05:03.644 Yeah, I don't. I have liked the online I've kind 0:05:03.644 --> 0:05:04.964 of sworn off online poker. 0:05:07.004 --> 0:05:10.764 Yeah, but yeah, there are definitely issue with online, but 0:05:11.004 --> 0:05:14.964 it's it's helped. It's helped me stay more even than 0:05:15.124 --> 0:05:16.604 negative for the first week. 0:05:16.964 --> 0:05:20.964 The default experience at the World Series pokers, you're always 0:05:21.004 --> 0:05:24.164 like one or two contingencies away from having like a 0:05:24.244 --> 0:05:26.204 really great world series and one or two continues away 0:05:26.204 --> 0:05:28.884 from having a really bad world series. Right. You know, 0:05:28.924 --> 0:05:31.244 I made it to the very end of day two 0:05:31.244 --> 0:05:33.084 of the Monster Stack. You are in the money, right, 0:05:33.084 --> 0:05:37.604 And then I made a huge semi bluff if you 0:05:37.604 --> 0:05:40.164 don't follow at home, some my bluff is when you 0:05:40.204 --> 0:05:41.804 are hoping to get the opponent to full, but if not, 0:05:41.844 --> 0:05:44.484 then you have a good draw that will win sometimes. 0:05:44.484 --> 0:05:47.724 So I had basically a straight flush draw and it 0:05:47.764 --> 0:05:49.644 was a turn, so you now have only one card 0:05:49.684 --> 0:05:53.444 to make your hand. And the opponent I thought was 0:05:53.484 --> 0:05:58.044 pretty strong, but I thought the odds compelled this play 0:05:58.084 --> 0:06:00.244 and I whatever, I'm there, I'm there to run deep, 0:06:00.284 --> 0:06:03.404 I'm the money. I went for it. He had a 0:06:03.444 --> 0:06:06.044 set of queens. I didn't make my death. 0:06:06.844 --> 0:06:09.924 That was not going to shold. Yes, there's it's funny. 0:06:09.924 --> 0:06:12.404 And you say it felt like the opponent was strong, 0:06:12.764 --> 0:06:15.044 and I think we've all had that feeling. You know, 0:06:15.124 --> 0:06:18.364 we're like just based on the way someone's playing, based 0:06:18.364 --> 0:06:19.964 on kind of the dynamics at the hand. You know 0:06:20.004 --> 0:06:23.124 the person is strong, but they're strong, and they're strong, right. 0:06:23.204 --> 0:06:25.564 A set of queens is a hand that's probably not 0:06:25.644 --> 0:06:28.564 going to fold. If you had like naked top hair 0:06:29.284 --> 0:06:31.804 something like that, that that might fold. And it's hard 0:06:31.844 --> 0:06:33.924 sometimes it's hard to know the difference. But you had 0:06:33.924 --> 0:06:36.404 a straight flushtraw. I think that you have to go 0:06:36.524 --> 0:06:39.684 for it in that situation. And Nate, you and I 0:06:39.724 --> 0:06:41.604 are playing for the win, not for the for them. 0:06:41.644 --> 0:06:43.604 In cash, right, we're playing to get chips and to 0:06:43.644 --> 0:06:46.684 win this thing. So let's do it, and let's have 0:06:46.724 --> 0:06:50.244 a better update for our listeners next week. So, Nate, 0:06:50.484 --> 0:06:54.324 let's turn to a totally different topic. Let's go politics 0:06:54.364 --> 0:06:58.804 and talk a little bit about ranked choice voting. This 0:06:58.924 --> 0:07:02.844 is correct me if I'm wrong, the second election in 0:07:02.884 --> 0:07:06.764 New York City where the voting has been changed, so 0:07:06.804 --> 0:07:09.844 that now we are in a situation where we have 0:07:10.084 --> 0:07:13.924 ranked choice voting instead of the usual first past the 0:07:13.924 --> 0:07:17.284 post system. So let's let's talk just a little bit 0:07:17.324 --> 0:07:20.244 about what the differences are. I am correct, right, this 0:07:20.284 --> 0:07:22.204 is the second auction where this is in play. 0:07:22.244 --> 0:07:25.884 Correct, Yeah, only for the primary. Yes, actually it's not 0:07:26.044 --> 0:07:28.204 used in the general election, which could also be chaotic. 0:07:28.244 --> 0:07:29.484 We'll probably get to that later on. 0:07:30.204 --> 0:07:34.004 Yep, all right, So normal you know, first past the post, 0:07:34.044 --> 0:07:37.244 person who gets the most votes wins, right, and there 0:07:37.244 --> 0:07:40.404 can be runoffs if no one gets the requisite majority. 0:07:40.924 --> 0:07:44.804 In ranked choice voting, it doesn't quite work the same way. 0:07:45.204 --> 0:07:50.244 You get to rank your candidates in order, you know, one, two, three, four, five. 0:07:50.524 --> 0:07:53.644 However many ranked choices you have in a given election, 0:07:53.924 --> 0:07:56.444 there's every Every election is a little bit different. So 0:07:56.564 --> 0:08:00.044 let's let's pretend that we're voting for our favorite podcasters, 0:08:00.564 --> 0:08:04.884 and just a random, random example. And let's imagine that, 0:08:05.644 --> 0:08:07.764 you know, a bunch of people get lots of votes, 0:08:08.084 --> 0:08:11.764 and I when you tally everyone else everyone up, I'm 0:08:11.764 --> 0:08:14.444 Maria come in last. So I'm going to be cut 0:08:14.604 --> 0:08:16.964 because the last person who comes in with you know, 0:08:17.004 --> 0:08:18.604 the fewest votes is going to be cut. But what's 0:08:18.644 --> 0:08:22.964 going to happen to my ballots? Well, I'm going to 0:08:22.964 --> 0:08:24.924 be cut, but the people who ranked me, who wanted me, 0:08:24.964 --> 0:08:28.044 who ranked me first, whoever they ranked after me, is 0:08:28.084 --> 0:08:30.804 going to get all of those votes. So imagine that 0:08:30.884 --> 0:08:34.964 everyone who voted for me actually put Nate after me. Right, 0:08:35.284 --> 0:08:38.564 And when you cut me between the people who voted 0:08:38.604 --> 0:08:40.764 for Nate first and the people who voted for Nate 0:08:40.804 --> 0:08:43.324 after me, all of a sudden, Nate has lots and 0:08:43.364 --> 0:08:46.884 lots of votes. And that's how ranked choice voting works. Right, 0:08:47.004 --> 0:08:48.804 Your votes get redistributed. 0:08:48.884 --> 0:08:49.044 Nate. 0:08:49.044 --> 0:08:53.284 Congratulations, I've given you all of my votes and you're 0:08:53.364 --> 0:08:56.164 going to be You're going to be zooming at those podcasts. 0:08:56.884 --> 0:08:58.844 My votes got redistributed to Ezra Klein. 0:08:59.044 --> 0:09:05.804 Apparently we tried, we tried, right, but that's actually so 0:09:06.204 --> 0:09:09.124 you know, we joke, but there is a lot of 0:09:09.124 --> 0:09:12.364 st know, there are pros, there cons and there's also 0:09:12.404 --> 0:09:15.124 strategy that comes up with ranked choice voting where people 0:09:15.164 --> 0:09:17.524 and this has actually played out in elections in the past, 0:09:17.604 --> 0:09:20.524 where people do have coalitions and try to say, okay, 0:09:20.604 --> 0:09:23.444 like let's try to band together so that if we're 0:09:23.564 --> 0:09:25.164 you know, if one of us is eliminated art bo, 0:09:25.204 --> 0:09:27.764 let's get passed to the other person. So that's kind 0:09:27.804 --> 0:09:31.244 of ranked choice in a nutshell Nate. The last time 0:09:31.284 --> 0:09:33.484 this was used in New York City, it was a 0:09:33.524 --> 0:09:34.484 little bit of a disaster. 0:09:34.804 --> 0:09:37.564 Well, it depends on who you would ask, right, So 0:09:38.084 --> 0:09:40.524 you had Eric Adams, who's a former cop in the 0:09:40.524 --> 0:09:43.364 conservative lane of the Democratic primary, not conserned relative to 0:09:43.404 --> 0:09:45.444 the US overall, but they are actually a fair number 0:09:45.444 --> 0:09:48.804 of conservatives who are Democrats in New York because there's 0:09:48.844 --> 0:09:51.484 no point in being a Republican. So therefore, you know, 0:09:51.524 --> 0:09:53.724 like fifteen percent of New York City Democrats voted for Trump, 0:09:53.764 --> 0:09:57.844 which is much higher than nationwide. You had Maya Wiley, 0:09:57.884 --> 0:10:01.244 who's the progressive candidate, and you had Catherine Garcia, who 0:10:01.364 --> 0:10:03.644 was at the time, I believe, the Sanitation commissioner, who 0:10:03.724 --> 0:10:08.364 was like the competent technocrat right. So what ranked choice 0:10:08.444 --> 0:10:12.204 voting is sort of theoretically supposed to do is produce 0:10:12.284 --> 0:10:17.204 a consensus choice where, yeah, the left likes Wiley, the 0:10:17.284 --> 0:10:19.604 right likes Adams, and the center again relative to the 0:10:19.604 --> 0:10:23.164 New York electorate, likes Garcia. However, you know, in principle, 0:10:23.164 --> 0:10:26.404 you could have what's called the condors winner. It's a 0:10:26.444 --> 0:10:30.084 French political scientist. I believe somebody condor sit where like, 0:10:30.164 --> 0:10:34.004 let's say Garcia, because she's in the middle, that all 0:10:34.204 --> 0:10:37.644 her voters. So if she were head to head against Wiley, 0:10:38.404 --> 0:10:41.804 she wins because both the moderates and the conservatives prefer her. 0:10:42.404 --> 0:10:45.284 If she's head to head against Eric Adams, she wins 0:10:45.364 --> 0:10:49.564 because like all the moderates and the progressives prefer her. Right. However, 0:10:50.484 --> 0:10:53.084 if the previous round is like if she's stuck in 0:10:53.124 --> 0:10:56.204 the middle in third place, if it's you know, forty 0:10:56.244 --> 0:11:01.164 percent Atoms, forty percent Wiley again, Conservative progressive, twenty percent Garcia, 0:11:01.644 --> 0:11:04.524 then she's eliminated before she has a chance to beat 0:11:04.564 --> 0:11:06.364 the other candidates one on one. What actually happened is 0:11:06.444 --> 0:11:12.924 she just barely beat Wiley in the penultimate round and 0:11:12.964 --> 0:11:17.044 then just barely lost to Adams in the final round. Right, 0:11:17.044 --> 0:11:18.564 And so what you almost had happen is that the 0:11:18.564 --> 0:11:21.084 candid who what have been the winner had to head 0:11:21.084 --> 0:11:23.644 almost got elimina because she didn't have enough like first 0:11:23.724 --> 0:11:26.524 choice votes after other votes were redistributed. I know that 0:11:26.604 --> 0:11:29.084 sounds kind of crazy, but number one, I want to 0:11:29.084 --> 0:11:31.404 emphasize that, Like, you know, one thing that helped her 0:11:31.524 --> 0:11:33.804 was that she had agreed with Andrew Yang, who at 0:11:33.804 --> 0:11:35.844 one point had been their frontrunner and then faded out. 0:11:36.124 --> 0:11:39.444 You know, we're going to mutually endorse one another. Right. 0:11:39.764 --> 0:11:41.924 It's a big burden on voters to have to list 0:11:42.004 --> 0:11:43.244 five candides. 0:11:43.404 --> 0:11:46.364 Yeah. No, So we've talked a lot on the show 0:11:46.364 --> 0:11:49.084 about cognitive load, right, like how many things you can 0:11:49.164 --> 0:11:52.884 keep in mind? Like we're busy people. People's attention is 0:11:52.924 --> 0:11:57.084 an incredibly finite resource, Like just how much of your 0:11:57.164 --> 0:12:00.564 time are you investing in following politics and following all 0:12:00.604 --> 0:12:02.804 the candidates you know and trying to get into the 0:12:02.804 --> 0:12:06.764 weeds and kind of figure out, Okay, who stands where 0:12:06.804 --> 0:12:09.844 who do I believe in? It's much easier to say, oh, okay, 0:12:09.964 --> 0:12:13.484 like I like this guy or this woman right then 0:12:13.524 --> 0:12:16.484 to say okay, this in order these are my five 0:12:16.964 --> 0:12:20.404 preferences and so, and people can get confused as well, right, 0:12:20.684 --> 0:12:23.724 if they don't quite understand how ranked choice voting works. 0:12:24.004 --> 0:12:27.444 They might think that it's like, oh, I'm giving points, right, 0:12:27.484 --> 0:12:30.604 because you know, sometimes you have these voting systems where 0:12:30.884 --> 0:12:33.204 you allocate different points to different people, and that's just 0:12:33.204 --> 0:12:36.204 basically how it works, right, Like, oh, I gave most 0:12:36.204 --> 0:12:38.844 of my points to Nate, I gave second most points 0:12:38.844 --> 0:12:42.364 to Maria, like, and everyone's going to get those points 0:12:42.404 --> 0:12:44.924 talied up. That's not how ranked choice voting works. But 0:12:45.044 --> 0:12:47.844 people sometimes they you know, especially if you've never done 0:12:47.884 --> 0:12:50.324 it before, it is it can be confusing. It seems 0:12:50.324 --> 0:12:54.684 straightforward ranked five, but it's not because ranked voting systems 0:12:54.724 --> 0:12:58.284 do differ and we're not used to it, right, We're 0:12:58.324 --> 0:13:01.004 not used to the system where like, I don't know 0:13:01.084 --> 0:13:04.004 any other voting in your life where you vote and 0:13:04.084 --> 0:13:07.484 like your votes get redistributed to your second choice, right, Like, 0:13:07.524 --> 0:13:09.804 that's that's not something that you that's not a situation 0:13:09.844 --> 0:13:13.804 you commonly encounter. And so unless like, you know, and 0:13:13.844 --> 0:13:16.964 you can think through the strategy of okay, what does 0:13:17.004 --> 0:13:19.684 that mean for hand, do I rank candidates? Then you 0:13:19.684 --> 0:13:22.404 can get an outcome that you didn't actually mean to happen. 0:13:23.164 --> 0:13:26.124 Yeah, yeah, I know. I mean there are systems. They're alternatives, 0:13:26.164 --> 0:13:29.724 like what is called approval voting, where you just list 0:13:29.724 --> 0:13:31.764 as many you vote for, as many candidates you want, right, 0:13:31.804 --> 0:13:33.284 as many candidates you like you think would be a 0:13:33.324 --> 0:13:35.804 good mayor good president, whatever, just check the box. Like 0:13:35.804 --> 0:13:39.524 that's a little bit more straightforward and not subject to manipulation. 0:13:40.164 --> 0:13:44.444 You know. Also, like, guess which people take the time 0:13:44.524 --> 0:13:48.004 to carefully think through their five preferences in New York 0:13:48.004 --> 0:13:53.044 you get five listings, right, it's the college educated professional 0:13:53.084 --> 0:13:55.804 class who read the New York Times in New York, 0:13:55.964 --> 0:13:57.884 right and like and research all the candidates and do 0:13:57.924 --> 0:14:02.084 their duty and like. So it kind of like quasi 0:14:02.164 --> 0:14:05.524 disenfranchises voters that might be struggling a bit more or 0:14:05.564 --> 0:14:09.164 might not be kind of as news consuming. I'm not sure, 0:14:09.204 --> 0:14:14.324 like at quite so much, right, you know here, I mean, 0:14:14.364 --> 0:14:15.924 so to discuss the problem, we have a good freelance 0:14:16.004 --> 0:14:18.564 article silver Bolting about this last week, right, but like, so, 0:14:18.644 --> 0:14:22.084 what problem is you have? Like zo Ran Mamdani a 0:14:22.124 --> 0:14:24.684 former or current member of the Democratic Socialist of America right, 0:14:24.804 --> 0:14:27.524 so quite left ring but has left wing but has 0:14:27.564 --> 0:14:31.124 run like a attractive campaign. I mean he has good commercials. 0:14:31.164 --> 0:14:34.164 He's good looking, good looking guy. Right, he has some energy. 0:14:34.204 --> 0:14:36.644 He's young in a political environment where there's too many 0:14:36.644 --> 0:14:42.444 fucking old people. Right, you know, is quite far left. Yeah, 0:14:42.764 --> 0:14:45.364 is quite far left. But has proposals like free bus service, 0:14:45.484 --> 0:14:49.004 like city run grocery stores in food deserts, a thirty 0:14:49.004 --> 0:14:51.084 dollars an hour minimum wager. Thirty five are really high 0:14:51.164 --> 0:14:53.324 or something like that. Right, but like it's actually stuff 0:14:53.364 --> 0:14:56.444 that like kind of like poll tests pretty well, like 0:14:56.564 --> 0:14:59.964 a rent freeze, Like economists hate this idea, but like, 0:15:00.004 --> 0:15:02.324 but he has made it a very competitive race since Cuomo. 0:15:02.444 --> 0:15:04.924 But there are plenty of voters who think, I don't 0:15:04.964 --> 0:15:07.484 like either one. Right, Cuomo hasn't lived in New York 0:15:07.484 --> 0:15:09.164 in thirty years. He's a meat too stuff. He's a 0:15:09.164 --> 0:15:12.444 carp bagger. He's domineering. We don't want our own Trump. 0:15:12.764 --> 0:15:13.964 He eats Bagel's the wrong way. 0:15:14.484 --> 0:15:17.284 Zoran is too far to the left. People have issues 0:15:17.284 --> 0:15:19.444 with him on Israel if they're pro Israel, they is 0:15:19.524 --> 0:15:23.844 with him on budgeting and taxes and a lack of experience. Right, 0:15:23.884 --> 0:15:26.004 and you have like all these like technocrats like running 0:15:26.004 --> 0:15:30.484 in the center lane, Brad Lander, Adrian Adams, Scott Stringer, 0:15:31.324 --> 0:15:35.764 Zilar myrie. Right, you have a hedge funder named Whitney Tilson, 0:15:35.844 --> 0:15:39.524 I think, and so like. So you have like all 0:15:39.564 --> 0:15:42.124 these technocrats running, and what's going to happen is that, 0:15:42.164 --> 0:15:45.284 like you know, one of the technocrats are probably finished 0:15:45.324 --> 0:15:48.844 in third place and be eliminated, even though in principle 0:15:48.964 --> 0:15:50.604 you could have like an Adrian Adams or a Brad 0:15:50.684 --> 0:15:53.924 Lander who would win head to head against these two 0:15:53.964 --> 0:15:55.604 polarizing candidates. 0:15:59.844 --> 0:16:01.244 And we'll be back right after this. 0:16:13.044 --> 0:16:15.604 Now, the New York Times did something interesting, right, which 0:16:15.644 --> 0:16:20.844 is they they said, yeah, the Times declared a year 0:16:20.964 --> 0:16:23.844 or so ago that we're near going to endorse in 0:16:23.924 --> 0:16:25.724 local races, right. 0:16:25.964 --> 0:16:27.884 Which is bizarre. Right, Well, I don't. 0:16:27.684 --> 0:16:31.044 Think newspapers should make endorsements. I think it's not that Yeah. 0:16:31.244 --> 0:16:32.804 Fine, so if you don't think they should make an 0:16:32.884 --> 0:16:35.564 endorsements period, that makes sense. But if they're making endorsements 0:16:35.564 --> 0:16:36.924 in national elections, they. 0:16:36.884 --> 0:16:39.444 Do in local rates. I mean even mostly The New 0:16:39.524 --> 0:16:43.684 York Times endorse both Amyklobishar and Elizabeth Warren in the 0:16:43.724 --> 0:16:46.884 twenty twenty Democratic primary, right, which did neither any favors 0:16:46.924 --> 0:16:50.284 I don't think, right, and they do not use ranked 0:16:50.324 --> 0:16:53.404 choice voting in most states in the primary this time, 0:16:53.444 --> 0:16:57.164 they're like, don't vote for Zoran and rank Cuomo somewhere. 0:16:57.204 --> 0:17:01.164 But then like rank like Lander or Tilson first, and 0:17:01.204 --> 0:17:04.924 like I put the editorial through like different large language 0:17:04.924 --> 0:17:07.004 models AI models, Right, so we're like, yeah, it's tell 0:17:07.044 --> 0:17:09.404 you to vote for Brad Lander and then put Cuomo fifth. 0:17:09.764 --> 0:17:12.804 So like so if it comes down to Cuomo versus 0:17:12.804 --> 0:17:16.844 O run that he will he will prevail, right, but 0:17:16.964 --> 0:17:20.124 others were confused, right, these events almost like they kind 0:17:20.124 --> 0:17:21.924 of say all these mean things about Cuomo and the 0:17:21.964 --> 0:17:25.324 state of vote for him anyway, right, so very very 0:17:25.364 --> 0:17:28.364 weird and half assed. And then Lander has crossed endorsed 0:17:28.804 --> 0:17:32.164 mam donnie, and so it just kind of like it 0:17:32.164 --> 0:17:36.364 adds an element of randomness that to be fair, Cuomo 0:17:36.484 --> 0:17:40.004 is almost certain to win the first choice vote. Right, 0:17:40.044 --> 0:17:42.684 So in a normal Marri election, because there is kind 0:17:42.684 --> 0:17:45.284 of an anti Cuomo anybody but Cuomo coalition which is 0:17:45.284 --> 0:17:48.364 pretty broad right and have different flavors of it, right, 0:17:48.404 --> 0:17:51.004 and a normal election, Cuomo just wins, goes to the 0:17:51.004 --> 0:17:55.644 general election and so forth Right here, Ma'm Donnie has 0:17:55.684 --> 0:17:59.044 a decent chant. He's at twenty five percent on polymarket. 0:17:59.084 --> 0:18:01.884 Where as you probably know, I'm an advisor. And by 0:18:01.884 --> 0:18:04.884 the way, I was into Mam Donnie early. I thought, like, 0:18:05.444 --> 0:18:07.964 you know, here's a guy running a pretty energetic campaign 0:18:08.244 --> 0:18:10.124 at a moment when like, I don't think New York 0:18:10.204 --> 0:18:14.924 is like suddenly having some like progressive spawn. I think, 0:18:15.004 --> 0:18:18.404 like people are sick of the establishment, and no one's 0:18:18.404 --> 0:18:21.444 a bigger figure of the establishment than Cuomo, right, and 0:18:21.444 --> 0:18:24.124 he and he, you know, and he's running a campaign 0:18:24.124 --> 0:18:25.764 that feels a little bit different, and I think in 0:18:26.004 --> 0:18:31.124 in city elections it doesn't have to be so ideological anyway. 0:18:31.244 --> 0:18:34.124 Like I'm to his right, I would I wouldn't be 0:18:34.244 --> 0:18:36.924 terrified by his mayorship by any means at all. Right, 0:18:37.004 --> 0:18:39.884 but he's he's overperformed, almost underperformed. As a result, he 0:18:39.964 --> 0:18:42.444 has a real shot. The general election is a mess, however, 0:18:42.484 --> 0:18:45.804 because like all these candidates basically have vehicles that can 0:18:45.884 --> 0:18:49.444 run with various minor parties in the general election. Right, 0:18:49.564 --> 0:18:52.324 so you'll have already the current incumbent mayor, Eric Adams 0:18:52.764 --> 0:18:55.044 is running as an independent. You'll have Republican County. I 0:18:55.044 --> 0:18:59.444 think Curtis Silba, who's like the former Guardian Angel die right, 0:18:59.724 --> 0:19:02.924 and you could have both like Mam Donnie if he loses, 0:19:02.924 --> 0:19:07.524 could run on the working Famili's ticket Quoma if you lose. 0:19:07.564 --> 0:19:10.044 I think there's some special vehicle third party that could run. 0:19:10.044 --> 0:19:14.084 So rarely usually just a matter of the Democratic primary 0:19:14.124 --> 0:19:16.044 mattering we're going to have a competitive general election in 0:19:16.084 --> 0:19:19.484 New York too, it looks like and then it's very weird. 0:19:19.564 --> 0:19:21.844 Then you get into things where like then it's no 0:19:21.884 --> 0:19:25.684 longer ranked choice voting, and you have Cuomo and Adams 0:19:25.684 --> 0:19:27.804 have these kind of overlap right, and so you could 0:19:27.844 --> 0:19:31.044 see like mom Donnie wim with a plurality, even though 0:19:31.044 --> 0:19:33.804 he probably would lose with ranked choice voting. When you 0:19:33.804 --> 0:19:36.244 bring the more conservative voters in play, then there's probably 0:19:36.284 --> 0:19:39.884 in anybody but Buzo run coalition. So it's it's all 0:19:39.964 --> 0:19:41.484 kind of a mess. We like messes in. 0:19:41.484 --> 0:19:44.364 New York, Maria, but this particular mess, it is a 0:19:44.364 --> 0:19:47.604 particular mess. And you know something that I've seen that's 0:19:47.804 --> 0:19:51.604 kind of interesting because normally, you know, you have people 0:19:51.684 --> 0:19:53.844 like endorse candidates and say, you know, this is why 0:19:53.844 --> 0:19:55.964 you vote for this one in New York because of 0:19:55.964 --> 0:19:58.564 what happened last time, And because people don't quite get 0:19:58.644 --> 0:20:01.644 ranked choice all the time, I've been seeing a lot 0:20:01.684 --> 0:20:06.244 of people instead of saying, you know, vote for Zoron 0:20:06.764 --> 0:20:11.524 or whatever it is, they say, don't rank Cuomo, right, Like, 0:20:12.004 --> 0:20:15.084 that's the messaging has shifted to, like, just do not 0:20:15.164 --> 0:20:17.524 put him as any of your top five choices, even 0:20:17.604 --> 0:20:22.244 if you like would marginally like prefer him to someone else. 0:20:22.364 --> 0:20:26.244 And so that's like game theory, game theory, game theorifying. 0:20:26.604 --> 0:20:29.084 How do you do that game theorifying it to the 0:20:29.124 --> 0:20:32.844 next level right now? Telling people like, don't only rank 0:20:32.884 --> 0:20:35.924 this person, do not rank this person anywhere because we 0:20:36.004 --> 0:20:40.164 don't want votes to trickle down there. And yeah, so 0:20:40.564 --> 0:20:44.324 that's it's kind of an interesting way of figuring out, Okay, 0:20:44.364 --> 0:20:47.364 how do we game this. I'm very interested to see 0:20:47.884 --> 0:20:50.004 how it all plays out. Obviously I'm not voting in 0:20:50.044 --> 0:20:54.124 it because I'm in about a resident, but because you know, 0:20:54.484 --> 0:20:57.924 I have been a New York resident for many years 0:20:57.924 --> 0:21:00.284 and still still spend a lot of time there. It 0:21:00.364 --> 0:21:02.884 is something that is near and dear to my heart. 0:21:03.244 --> 0:21:05.244 And I'm not voting because I am a Rechester. I 0:21:05.244 --> 0:21:07.284 think I've told this story on the show I'm much 0:21:07.324 --> 0:21:09.004 in Republican in New York because I want to write 0:21:09.004 --> 0:21:11.404