WEBVTT - Week 4 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 58) 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:16.400 Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting 0:00:16.400 --> 0:00:18.680 Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:21.079 find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. With me, 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:24.360 of course, is Matt host of the Daily Juice podcast. 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:26.880 You can find him on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. Matt. 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:28.200 What's up Week four? 0:00:28.440 --> 0:00:30.760 Let's get going here. We're kind of tread and water. 0:00:31.240 --> 0:00:32.960 We're like a duck right now. We're just gonna tread 0:00:32.960 --> 0:00:34.240 and water. We've gotta get going. 0:00:34.440 --> 0:00:37.239 And I mean, it's unfortunate that we're not able to 0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:39.800 bet on the most exciting game of the week, which 0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:41.160 is the Jets. I mean, we could. 0:00:41.200 --> 0:00:43.479 How do feel, honest to gosh, as a Jet fan? 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:46.000 How do you feel about your football team right now? 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:50.479 I think my football team is one of the biggest 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:54.040 embarrassments in the country, which says a lot. I think 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:58.280 that they're horrific and they have the worst coach in 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:00.520 the league. I tell you what I really think about 0:01:00.520 --> 0:01:01.800 the season. Though. What really bugs me. 0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:03.400 By the way, at the top of taping, you have 0:01:03.440 --> 0:01:04.360 the worst coach in the league. 0:01:04.880 --> 0:01:08.959 That's true, although there's a report today that they weren't going 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:10.640 to fire him. I was like, great. It doesn't really matter. 0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:12.840 He's not gonna I mean, whether he survives this season 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:14.360 or not. I don't know. The big thing for me 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:17.720 is I don't Maybe you feel differently. I don't really 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.520 feel like I have enough of the sense of whether 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:24.880 I can evaluate Darnald Yet he makes some horrific throws 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:28.920 and some terrible decisions, but he also unquirks a lot 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:32.080 of pretty amazing things that I've seen him do, and 0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:34.039 I never I don't think he's been given a fair shake, 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:36.280 given his coach and given the team they put around him. 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:38.760 So I guess out of curiosity before we get into it, 0:01:38.800 --> 0:01:40.560 how do you how do you feel about Darnald in 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:42.560 the future, Because I could see us getting the number 0:01:42.560 --> 0:01:45.480 one pick, drafting Lawrence, getting rid of Darnald, and then 0:01:45.560 --> 0:01:48.280 him winning like six championships for the Pats or something 0:01:48.320 --> 0:01:50.040 like that. Right Like, That's how I can see it. 0:01:50.080 --> 0:01:51.920 I mean maybe, I mean you kind of have to 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:54.120 ask me tomorrow morning, because I bet the Jets do 0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:59.240 win today. So at naldas if he plays his butt 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:01.520 off and he's you know, lighten up that defense for 0:02:01.560 --> 0:02:03.880 the Broncos, and I'm gonna be like, go Sam Darnold. 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:06.760 If he loses tonight, I'm gonna say tank for Trevor. 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:09.760 Yeah, well, I'm sure it won't be impressive no matter what. 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:12.840 But either way, we are, unfortunately both on the Jets side, 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:15.400 not in our contest, and we are not advising anybody. 0:02:15.440 --> 0:02:17.080 Don't know, yell at us at the Jets lowers. It's 0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:19.320 just a game that you bet because otherwise, even as 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:21.519 a Jets fan, there's absolutely no reason to watch. Okay, 0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:24.200 So we're gonna get into every game for this weekend, 0:02:24.240 --> 0:02:27.799 as we do every single time we record. But as always, 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:30.280 let us recap where we are in the Draft Kings Championship. 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:32.399 We were five and five coming in, so just kind 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:34.639 of treading water, and as Matt said, we're still kind 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:36.280 of treading water. We went three and two last week, 0:02:36.320 --> 0:02:38.679 so at least a winning week. We're two hundred and 0:02:38.720 --> 0:02:41.000 fifty fifth out of six hundred and eighty nine, so 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:43.680 not great, but not the worst in the world. We 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:45.720 missed on the Chargers laying six and a half to 0:02:45.760 --> 0:02:48.639 the Panthers. Remind us never to back a rookie quarterback. 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:50.600 As you said, no good. We did hit on the 0:02:50.600 --> 0:02:52.840 Steelers laying three and a half to the Texans, the 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:54.399 Pats laying five and a half to the Raiders, which 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:56.359 we both loved, and the chiefs S getting three and 0:02:56.400 --> 0:02:58.840 a half from the Ravens. We really enjoyed. The last 0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:01.520 time we will see Patrick mahone getting points from anyone. 0:03:02.040 --> 0:03:04.000 And on the podcast, we had picked the Titans laying 0:03:04.040 --> 0:03:06.360 two and a half to the Vikings. Matt messaged me 0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:09.400 on Saturday, because we talk, you know, we generally messaged 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:12.120 Arount the week, said some sharps had really really pushed 0:03:12.160 --> 0:03:14.600 him off of that number, so we decided to move off. 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:17.040 We didn't really have another pick that we love, so 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:19.679 Matt allowed me to go with the Giants getting three 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:21.560 and a half from the four Nines, which just missed. 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:24.600 But also the other games that we were thinking about 0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:27.080 also did not go well anyway. We were talking about 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:29.120 maybe the Falcons or the Cowboys, so we would have 0:03:29.160 --> 0:03:31.920 lost that pick anyway. So three and two, eight and 0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:33.520 seven on the year. We need a good week, So 0:03:33.880 --> 0:03:36.400 we're gonna go back and forth a bit. Matt is 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:38.200 going to list his top choice. I will list my 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:40.520 top choice. I talked to my briefly before we got on. 0:03:40.600 --> 0:03:42.600 He sounds like he is not feeling all that good 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:47.000 I have, Matt. I think I have nine games that 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:50.200 if you came up, I don't feel great. But let 0:03:50.240 --> 0:03:52.200 me qualify that I don't feel great. But if you 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:54.120 came to me right now, if you list one of 0:03:54.160 --> 0:03:56.480 those games, I will probably just be like, yeah, okay, 0:03:56.640 --> 0:03:58.880 I'm okay with that. I'll go with that. Okay, So 0:03:59.120 --> 0:04:02.120 we'll talk about that again. I will remind everybody props 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:04.640 props are not out yet. That's just the way it 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:06.960 is with the sports books. They don't come out until 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:09.880 late So again I will remind you. Matt does a 0:04:09.960 --> 0:04:13.360 live stream on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:17.120 Betting Pros on Sunday morning at eleven am Eastern, so 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:20.520 that's eight am Matt's time. He goes through the entire 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:23.520 slate for the week, if you've changed anything. He also 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:25.479 does props. I give him a couple of props. I 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:27.600 was six for six on my props. I only give 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:29.200 Matt two because they were the only two I felt 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:30.720 really good about. But I was six for six over 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:34.200 all my props. Again, I do fantasy projections. So hopefully 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:35.880 things are starting to normalize a little bit, because the 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:37.680 first couple of weeks were a little more difficult for 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:39.520 me to get a sense of. But anyway, we will 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:40.960 do that. As always, if we change any of the 0:04:40.960 --> 0:04:43.080 picks we discussed today, we will note them on Twitter 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:45.800 at Tan Harris Ati at Sports Talk. Matt, let's get 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:48.279 into it, Matt, start us off. Who is your Do 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:51.520 you have any games that you are like excited about? 0:04:51.680 --> 0:04:51.880 Yes? 0:04:51.920 --> 0:04:53.400 Again, yes, go ahead. 0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:55.240 You gonna start with the one I like the most. 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:58.080 You can, Matt, the world is your oyster man. Start 0:04:58.240 --> 0:04:58.800 whatever you want. 0:04:58.920 --> 0:05:02.080 Let's start with the Let's Biggs Raiders at home catching 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:05.680 two and a half? Oh wow, already and out of 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:06.640 you first? 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:11.200 Okay, how long how long are you just going to 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:13.160 avoid the Bills? How long are you just going to 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:16.120 fade the Bills until they eventually win the Super Bowl? 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:17.760 And you're gonna be like, I don't know next year 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:19.120 though that, Josh. 0:05:19.480 --> 0:05:22.039 So you tell me, should they have one last week? No? 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:26.240 So we're going on a team that got a massive break. 0:05:26.600 --> 0:05:29.039 It's coming across the country to take on a team 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:31.120 in the Raiders who are playing at home, who rested 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:33.239 a bunch of guys, and we don't know exactly who's 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:35.040 gonna play for the Raiders, but they're getting some guys 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:35.680 back for this game. 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:37.640 We know a couple of guys who are not coming back, 0:05:37.680 --> 0:05:39.960 though we know Brian Edwards is out correct. You know, 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:42.120 Henry Ruggs is almost definitely out correct. 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:44.960 So you're gonna have Josh Jacobs is playing. That's all 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:47.159 I need to know about, all right. He's going to 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:50.719 destroy the Bills. Gave up so many rushing yards in 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:52.880 the second half of that game against the Rams. They 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:55.440 can't tackle. That defense got lit up by the Dolphins 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:58.279 and it got lit up by the Rams. The Raiders 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:00.479 are going to run the ball and Diacops is the 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:02.400 best back of the three teams that they got. Going 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:07.440 Jacob's prop over everything. Josh Jacobs leads to this team 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:09.680 to a victory. They're gonna win this game outright at 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:11.599 home and beat the Buffalo Bills take the two and 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:11.960 a half. 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:14.800 I don't think so. I heard you talk about it 0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:17.039 with Dave Sharpan on The Daily Juice where you made 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:20.000 your pick, and again, I don't just say it because 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:22.520 it's part of our network of podcasts. The Daily Jews 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:25.800 is a great podcast every morning fifteen minutes. I really 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:27.719 enjoy it. So, Matt, you already made that pick, so 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:29.480 I knew this was coming, that I was ready for it, 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:30.920 and so I looked into it and I was like, 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:32.760 all right, is this something I feel comfortable with? First 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:34.760 of all, you have it at three though, right. 0:06:34.920 --> 0:06:36.640 That's it, That's what I bet it at. Yes, but 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:38.520 I think they win the game outright, So any points 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:40.039 in general, I like, why? 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:41.480 What? What is? So? 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:45.480 I mean, how are are bad teams? And they should 0:06:45.520 --> 0:06:47.400 have lost to the Ramska? 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:51.960 Okay, how are the Raiders gonna be able to stop 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:53.800 the Bills offense? 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:55.840 It's gonna be a high scoring game, but yeah, I 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:58.400 think of an enough yes that they will stop the money. 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:00.520 A high scoring game. How I don't understand is Josh 0:07:00.600 --> 0:07:03.000 Jacob's gonna run for four hundred yards because they're gonna 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:05.760 probably put for Davius White on Darren Waller, and right, 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:08.800 there are no other wide receivers out there. You're legitimately 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:12.760 just gonna have to live, are you? Are you going 0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:14.600 to mention Za Jones or Nelson. 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:22.640 Looks good in a Raider uniform? Looked good. Derek Carr 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:26.480 has been accurate and I'm telling you this. Mcdermot's not Belichick, 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:30.280 all right, And Waller will be force fed. I thought 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:32.560 the Raiders really were afraid to give the ball to 0:07:32.640 --> 0:07:34.760 Waller for whatever reason they I think they got out 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:37.760 belichicked in their brain. They should have force fed Waller. 0:07:37.960 --> 0:07:40.119 I think they'll force feed him coming up and at home. 0:07:40.640 --> 0:07:43.040 I I like this team in the comfort of their home, 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:46.640 their own home, and it's kind of in a local story. 0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:48.440 They went cut a national but they had a really 0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:50.680 bad week. Okay, this team needs to win a football 0:07:50.720 --> 0:07:56.920 game to get everybody's What happened the the Waller fundraiser 0:07:56.960 --> 0:07:59.960 on Monday was bad, really bad. Ten players, no matter, 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:03.080 no social distancing. It was awful. It was really awful. 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:05.040 This team needs a victory to get everybody off of 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:07.080 that because if they lose, the questions are going to 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:10.600 be loud to the grood inside of well. John, you 0:08:10.720 --> 0:08:12.880 got fined one hundred k for not wearing a mask. 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:15.800 Ten two days later, ten of your players were sitting 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:20.560 there at an event without wearing masks. Distraction, not focused, 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:24.360 not taking it seriously. I expect an A plus effort 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:25.920 out of the Raiders coming up this weekend. 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:29.480 How many people from either your radio show or from 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:32.880 your podcast, get like, get on you on Twitter for 0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:34.480 how much you fade the Bills. 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:36.960 It's got to be like I want to say, it's 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:40.720 ninety nine percent of Bills fans out here from that 0:08:40.840 --> 0:08:45.480 are negative and one percent say you're right. I mean literally, 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:49.120 I've had people say you need to apologize. I've had 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:51.640 them say you need to go on an apology tour, 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:54.720 that you need to bet the Bills every time. Now 0:08:54.800 --> 0:08:56.720 I want you wearing a Bill's jersey by the end 0:08:56.720 --> 0:09:01.240 of the season, all all sorts of I'm gonna maintain 0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:03.720 this and look, I talked to someone from Pro Football 0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:06.720 Focused on my show today who said that Josh Allen's 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:09.960 numbers when he's pressured are better than Josh Allen's numbers 0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:12.880 in a clean pocket. That tells you that that's a 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:16.640 regression coming in a big, big way. When you're more accurate, 0:09:16.679 --> 0:09:19.640 when you're getting guys in your face, that's luck. Okay, 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:22.480 you're getting lucky that you're completing these passes and having 0:09:22.480 --> 0:09:25.360 big numbers. A regression for the Bills offense is coming 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:25.880 this weekend. 0:09:26.160 --> 0:09:28.079 I have a lot of friends still in Buffalo, I 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:29.800 have some family in Buffalo. I went to school there, 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:32.240 So I apologize on behalf of Matt par just at 0:09:32.320 --> 0:09:33.840 him Sports Talk Matt, not me. 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:36.600 But did you see that stupid thing going around Twitter 0:09:36.640 --> 0:09:41.000 about like why people is an apology letter to Josh, 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:45.720 you clowns. Just cut it out, Just get out of here. 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:48.600 The guy can't hit a broad set of a barn still, Okay, 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:50.559 he's an athlete, good athlete, that's what he. 0:09:50.600 --> 0:09:53.360 Is to everyone in Buffalo. I love duff Swings, man, 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:55.640 I would I would go get some Duffs right now. 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:57.480 Give me some duff right over there. 0:09:57.520 --> 0:09:59.760 Okay, which funny I have? I have a chicken wing 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:03.040 a day, like I love buffaloings. Yes, they're my favorite food, 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:04.920 So I should like the bills, but I just don't. 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:07.520 I don't. Oh my god, this is actually terrible. I 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:10.400 have to just make sure that I'm not going to 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:13.720 say it wrong because I think it was yeah, okay, 0:10:13.800 --> 0:10:17.520 good dust Wings. I was like, wait, there's Duffs. It's plural, right, 0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:19.280 it's not staying there. I haven't been there in like 0:10:19.320 --> 0:10:21.360 fifteen years, unfortunately, but Dusts wings. By the way, if 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:23.079 you go there, anchor bar. I know they say they 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:26.280 invented wings. Duff's is the best. But oh okay, I 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:27.960 love it. When the Jets beat writers go up there 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:29.600 and they're all like, no, nah, we're going to DAF 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:31.160 So I'm like, that's right, that's what you do. But 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:34.319 we are not taking the raiders. I'm not. Look I don't, 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:36.719 I don't. I don't see it. I don't see it 0:10:37.000 --> 0:10:39.640 with no receivers. That's my big worry I get. I 0:10:39.679 --> 0:10:42.080 do think Jacob's gonna run all over them. I think 0:10:42.080 --> 0:10:43.960 they'll go to Waller, but I think that they are 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:48.320 gonna do. The Patriots gonna stick my best corner on 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:50.920 Darren Waller, and I think, you know, White is good. 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:53.760 He's not Gilmore good, but he's really really good. And 0:10:53.800 --> 0:10:55.480 I think that he's gonna be able to kind of 0:10:55.480 --> 0:10:57.360 shum down. And I think the Patriots showed a little bit. 0:10:57.400 --> 0:10:57.720 What you do. 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:01.280 You just kind of get all of car checkdown options. 0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:03.679 You're like, nah, man, we are not giving you this outlet. 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:07.040 Feel free to go deep to Nelson Agalore, orse A 0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:10.200 Jones or something like that. But we're just blanketing your 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:12.800 checkdown options. So for me, under a field goal can't 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:14.320 do it because that means I have to feel like 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:16.720 they're gonna win outright, and I just don't. So we're 0:11:16.760 --> 0:11:19.480 gonna put that one off. I'm exercising my right to 0:11:19.520 --> 0:11:22.320 put that one off as you will with multiple picks. 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:26.360 I'm sure. Okay, So a game I like, I'll start 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:28.559 with this one. Saints slaying three and a half to 0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:31.480 the Lions. So there are a couple of minarrasis here. 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:35.560 Number one, Detroit's getting healthier. Kenny Galladay played last week, 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:37.880 The defense is getting a little healthier. Saints are dealing 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:39.920 with a ton of injuries. Jared Cook, My guess is 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:42.040 he's probably not gonna play. I'm a little worried about 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:44.200 Marshawn Latimore. Apparently he's got a little bit of a hamstring. 0:11:44.240 --> 0:11:45.839 If he doesn't play, that might change the way I 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:47.680 feel about it, because I really do view this as 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:50.839 Latimore is just gonna take away Galladay, just the whole game. 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:53.360 And I think Michael Thomas is gonna play here. He's 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:55.720 practiced the last two days. Sounds like he's trending up. 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:58.319 They need to bounce back here. You don't go wrong 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:02.080 really fading Matt. I feel like, and the Saints didn't 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:05.920 look good against the Packers, but I don't think the 0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:07.240 Lions are really going to be able to run on 0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:09.439 them with ap. I think Latimore is going to be 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:11.760 able to take away Golladi. So you're looking at them 0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:15.440 moving the ball with Hockinson and Marvin Jones, and I'm 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:18.000 just not that worried about it. And again, you look 0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:20.440 at this game against the Packers, where you know eventually 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:23.080 the Saints got beat Taysom Hill doesn't fumble that ball 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:25.760 and they can easily win that game. They're still putting 0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:27.959 up twenty nine points per game as bad as Drew 0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:31.440 Brees looks. Twenty nine points per game, they're fourth in 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:35.520 offensive DVOA and that's without Michael Thomas. Pretty much. There's 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:37.360 no pass rush for the Lions. I think this is 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:39.120 a bounce back game for the Saints. There's no fans, 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:41.079 so I don't care really about the home build advantage. 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:43.000 So for me, I like the Saints lank three and 0:12:43.040 --> 0:12:44.160 a half to the Lions. 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:46.760 See this is the week of home dogs. That really 0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:51.600 concerns me. And I'm concerned about laying points on the road. 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:54.200 And you've been fitting the Lions. You faded my Lions 0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:56.880 pick last week, and you exit and they want and 0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:59.319 won the game outright. On the part on the Cardinals, 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:03.160 I'm gonna say no, to this, and I don't like 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:05.000 the Saints this year at all, and there might They 0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:08.480 were my pick preseason to win the Super Bowl Drew Brees. 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:11.200 Unless they're gonna come up with the package that is 0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:15.240 half Hill and half Breeze, it's really difficult to like 0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:17.839 the Saints offense. And that's with Alvin Kamara, who's just 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:21.959 an absolute destroyer of defenses. I'm concerned about the Saints 0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:25.920 in a big way. And look, they've invested in that defense. 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:29.080 I mean, Stafford played really well. Galladay was a beast. 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:30.520 I get it. You take him away and then what 0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:33.360 else have you got there? But that's a scary number 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:37.240 for me. I really I gotta I'm very concerned about 0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:39.880 laying points on the road right now, especially for a 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:42.240 team like the Saints. So I gotta say no to 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:42.760 the Saints. 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:44.920 That's totally fine. And again, this is part of what 0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:46.880 we do. We go back and forth. Each one of 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:49.120 us has the full power to be like, absolutely, I 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:51.199 cannot do that, and that's totally fine for me. I 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:53.400 think they're gonna I think they're gonna run. I think 0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:55.640 they're just gonna destroy the lines in this game. But 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.840 that's that's completely fine and again, I'm not really fading 0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:00.920 the road team because of the act of home build 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:03.840 advantage in this point. If Thomas comes back, I feel fine, 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:05.439 get to your next pick, then let's see if we 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:05.880 can agree. 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:07.839 Okay, so my next pick that I like a lot, 0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:11.000 and this a lot of these plays are based upon numbers. 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:15.080 Here right yep, Eagles plus seven and a half really 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:18.840 over over a touchdown. You look at this line. This 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:21.280 line should be three. This line shouldn't be seven and 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:23.200 a half. This is way too many points here. The 0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:25.480 Eagles are everyone's fading them. They're O two and one. 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:28.200 You know they're playing so poorly. There are so many 0:14:28.200 --> 0:14:31.640 injuries on the forty nine ers. We don't know who's 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:33.800 playing for them. And look, I know the Giants just 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:36.800 got destroyed by them running the football. But think about this. 0:14:37.360 --> 0:14:40.440 If you're Doug Peterson, you lose this game, you're O 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:43.080 three and one right now, you might be on the 0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:44.840 hot seat. He might be on the hot seat. Now. 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:47.720 I don't think Carson Wentz is this bad. I think 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:49.360 this is a team that's got Look, they're gonna lose 0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:51.840 this game, I think, but not by more than seven points. 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:53.280 I love the seven and a half the hook here 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:55.480 matters to me. Taking the Eagles plus seven and a half. 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:57.800 Yeah, I agree that the hook. It's on my list, 0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:00.600 so I'm I'm I'm gonna put this one as probable 0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:02.800 of putting it on this I liked it as well. 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:07.160 I'm a little nervous Carson Wentz is playing, I mean, 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.560 as poorly as I can remember a quarterback playing. He's 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:14.200 not this bad. But again, a little bit that worries 0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:17.200 me is they're really down wide receivers right now. I mean, 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:19.520 I don't know if Deshaun Jackson's gonna play. We know 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:22.160 Jalen Rakers out, we know Nels Goddard is out. It 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.320 makes me a little worried. But you talk about the 0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:26.520 Giants game. Man, we were texting during the first half 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:29.080 of that game. Daniel Jones doesn't turn the ball over 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:31.720 like right by the half. That's not It wasn't like 0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:34.360 they blew them out of the water right out of 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:36.720 the gate like the forty nine ers right now are 0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:39.960 not that good. Garoppolo is not going to play Kittle, 0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:42.560 I guess is gonna play. It sounds like that, which 0:15:42.600 --> 0:15:45.040 does make me a little worried. And I think it 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:47.440 sounds like McKinnon is also healthy, so the at least 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:49.600 have the two backs. Most of it's not gonna play. 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:51.800 But I agree with you here. I mean, they're just 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:54.320 given all the injuries on defense, given everything that's starting, 0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:56.600 the desperation that's going to set in for the Eagles, 0:15:56.680 --> 0:15:59.480 which you wouldn't know necessarily because of the fact that 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:02.480 they play for the tie against Cincinnati, which was just 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:06.200 absolutely ludicrous. I'm okay with it. So let's put that 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:07.920 one in a pencil. But I think that's one that 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.800 we're gonna go with and shocked, shocked that that's what 0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:15.080 you went with. Okay, how about and this one again? 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:18.120 This is sort of I guess similar to the Saints. 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:20.760 But what do you think about the Cardinals laying three 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:23.600 and a half at the Panthers. To me, I think 0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:25.040 this last game was a bit of a wake up 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.000 call for the Cardinals. You've heard Larry Fitzgerald talk about 0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:29.640 it was like, what you know, You've got sort of 0:16:29.640 --> 0:16:33.040 these suddenly Super Bowl aspirations and then this game comes 0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:36.480 along and just knocks you on your butt. The caveat 0:16:36.600 --> 0:16:39.240 is for me. DeAndre Hopkins has missed the last two 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:41.600 days of practice with an ankle injury. It may be nothing. 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:43.960 It may just be routine maintenance. If he's out, forget it. 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:46.200 I don't want anything about this, but they should be 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:47.640 able to run all day. I think there's a big 0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:50.480 Kenyon Drake game for them and Kyler Murray running the ball. 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:53.520 I don't love the Panthers. They're coming off that win, 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:55.280 like good for them, but I think it's a letdown 0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:57.200 spot for them. I think the Cardinals are angry. I 0:16:57.240 --> 0:16:59.520 think they're way better than we saw against the Lions. 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:02.000 So well, now this kind of goes with the Saints 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:04.879 laying three and a half on the road, but Cardinals 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:06.280 at the Panthers three and a half? 0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:08.480 What do you think put it in pen Ooh. 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:10.400 All right, okay Cardinals. 0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:12.679 Look here's the thing with the Panthers and I got 0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:14.320 into a little bit of an argument. I mentioned I 0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:16.879 was talking to someone from Pro Football Focus. They were 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:18.480 trying to make the case that the Panthers are a 0:17:18.480 --> 0:17:22.800 better offense without McCaffrey, and I just was like, what 0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:25.159 do you mean in The person was like it was 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:26.919