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Speaker 1: Welcome to this week's edition of Fair Territory. And yes,

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Speaker 1: believe it or not, we have action. We have a

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Speaker 1: member of the BORS four agreeing to a contract. It

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Speaker 1: is now the Boris three, Cody Bellinger in agreement with

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Speaker 1: the Cubs on a three year, eighty million dollar deal

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Speaker 1: with opt outs after the first and second year. Now,

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Speaker 1: for Bellinger, this is a somewhat surprising outcome. And I

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Speaker 1: wrote about this Sunday if you didn't read it in

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Speaker 1: The Athletic, what I basically said is the projections for

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Speaker 1: him by some of the outside experts Tim Britton of

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Speaker 1: The Athletic was about one hundred and sixty two million

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Speaker 1: for six years. MLB trade rumors had him at two

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Speaker 1: sixty four for twelve. Well, he didn't get that. You

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Speaker 1: can make the case that if a long term deal

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Speaker 1: wasn't available to him, then a short term deal enabling

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Speaker 1: him to go back on the market next season is

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Speaker 1: the most desirable outcome. So what happened here, Let's start

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Speaker 1: with the impact on Bellinger in the we can talk

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Speaker 1: about the Cubs a little bit. What happened was Bellinger

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Speaker 1: was a flawed free agent in a market that is

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Speaker 1: not turning out to be as robust as perhaps some

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Speaker 1: of us expected. And he also is represented by Scott Boris,

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Speaker 1: who played this out and may may have overplayed his hand.

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Speaker 1: And I say may because we don't have a full

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Speaker 1: scorecard here yet. Remember he has the opt out after

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Speaker 1: this year, another big year, he goes back into the

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Speaker 1: market at age twenty nine, could get a monster deal.

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Speaker 1: Then Korea followed this path, Adrian Beltra followed this path.

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Speaker 1: These are guys represented by bores. It's been done before.

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Speaker 1: But for Bellinger, well, let's take a look at his

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Speaker 1: stats from last year nationally Comeback Player of the Year,

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Speaker 1: tenth in the MVP Bauting, and look at these numbers.

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Speaker 1: They're quite good. Three h seven batting average, twenty six homers,

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Speaker 1: ninety seven RBIs eight eighty one ops. And yet I

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Speaker 1: said he was a flawed free agent, and he was

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Speaker 1: flawed for a couple of reasons. One, he had those

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Speaker 1: two difficult seasons in twenty twenty one and twenty two

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Speaker 1: injury March seasons, granted, but he was non tendered by

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers, so he had sort of that black mark

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Speaker 1: against him. And these stats that you're looking at here

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Speaker 1: are another reason why clubs were hesitant to go too

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Speaker 1: long on Bellinger. Weighted on base average and expected weighted

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Speaker 1: on base average. For those not familiar with these stats,

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Speaker 1: weighted on base average is a way to measure not

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Speaker 1: just a player getting on base, but how he gets

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Speaker 1: on base. It's weighted so it double is worth more

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Speaker 1: than a single, or a walk on home run is

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Speaker 1: worth more than a double, and vice versa. Expected rated

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Speaker 1: on base average is the expected outcomes according to stat

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Speaker 1: cast measures such as exit velocity. The difference between Bellinger's

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Speaker 1: expected and actual numbers were alarming to some clubs. It

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Speaker 1: showed that, well, perhaps he was lucky and perhaps what

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Speaker 1: he did was unsustainable. So that was a problem. And

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Speaker 1: another problem was the market. It has been, as I wrote,

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Speaker 1: a surprisingly tepid market. The Mets and Padres are not

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Speaker 1: spending the way they did in recent seasons. The Philly

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Speaker 1: is spent on Aaronola but haven't done much else. Besides that,

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Speaker 1: you have other teams, a number of other teams facing

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Speaker 1: uncertainty in their future local television revenue, and that has

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Speaker 1: caused their owners to pull back a little bit. So

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Speaker 1: you didn't have this robust group of teams bidding for

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Speaker 1: all these different free agents, and yet at the same

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Speaker 1: time he's Cody Bellinger, He's twenty eight years old. I

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Speaker 1: feel quite comfortable saying Scott Boris ideally wanted a longer deal.

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Speaker 1: And what this means now for the other members of

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Speaker 1: the Boris Ford, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman, Well,

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Speaker 1: it remains to be seen. But as I wrote, I

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Speaker 1: imagine it's going to embolden the general managers' presidents of

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Speaker 1: Baseball operations of the teams pursuing those players because they

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Speaker 1: saw the Cubs held the line. I'm gonna hold the line.

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Speaker 1: He's not getting what Boris wants. We're getting way and

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Speaker 1: wait till we get the price we want. Now for

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Speaker 1: the Cubs, obviously, this is an outstanding outcome. President of

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Speaker 1: Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer. At the start of the offseason,

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Speaker 1: if you had told him you're gonna get Bellinger for

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Speaker 1: three years and eighty with two opt outs, granted, he

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Speaker 1: would have taken that every day of the week. He's

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Speaker 1: had a pretty good off season, Jed Hoyer. As far

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Speaker 1: as playing the market, he got Imanaga on what is

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Speaker 1: perceived to be a reasonable price. Hectornaris on a one

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Speaker 1: year deal, and now Bellinger to a deal that again

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Speaker 1: is not what many of us expected. So the Cubs

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Speaker 1: needed a number three hitter or a number four hitter,

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Speaker 1: a middle of the order hitter. I should say they

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Speaker 1: needed a left handed bat. Cody Bellinger gives them that

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Speaker 1: he can play center field, buying some time for Pete

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Speaker 1: crow Armstrong. He can play first base. If crow arm

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Speaker 1: Strong emerges, you have all kinds of options. Now, are

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Speaker 1: the Cubs this dynamic, amazing world series front runner? No,

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Speaker 1: but they should be a force in the NL Central

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Speaker 1: And in attending their camp the other day, actually, I've

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Speaker 1: been there a couple of days. They're really excited about

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Speaker 1: their young talent coming through. Crow Armstrong is one, but

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Speaker 1: some pitchers as well. They feel they're on the verge

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Speaker 1: of having some of these prospects pop. And when that happens,

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Speaker 1: you surround them with better players. What you are surrounding

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Speaker 1: them with better players like Bellinger, and then maybe just

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Speaker 1: maybe you have something special, building something like what they

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Speaker 1: had in twenty fifteen and sixteen. So now we get

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Speaker 1: to the rest of the market. We'll see what happens

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Speaker 1: with Snell, with Montgomery, with Chapman. I would not be

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Speaker 1: surprised if they take deals that are similar to what

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Speaker 1: Bellinger accepted from the Cubs, shorter term with opt outs,

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Speaker 1: so they can get back into the market at maybe

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Speaker 1: a time when the market will be better, at maybe

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Speaker 1: a time when clubs will have a better idea of

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Speaker 1: what the future television and streaming looks like, and at

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Speaker 1: a time when the Mets will be back in play,

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Speaker 1: and perhaps the Yankees too if they don't get Juan Soto.

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Speaker 1: Remember they didn't set spend much on free agents this

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Speaker 1: year either. The Yankees. They acquired Soto and that was

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Speaker 1: their big move and a great one for that matter.

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Speaker 1: Time now for the Inside Dish. This is the part

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Speaker 1: of the show where I go inside a story i've written,

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Speaker 1: inside a trend in the game, or riff completely on

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Speaker 1: something else entirely. This week, I'm actually going to talk

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Speaker 1: about two stories that I wrote recently because I thought

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Speaker 1: that both kind of had interesting backstories to them. The

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Speaker 1: first was the lengthy story I wrote with Stephen Nesbitt

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Speaker 1: last week about the Pirates and about where they stand

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Speaker 1: as they enter year five under general manager Ben Sherrington.

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Speaker 1: And I wrote this story with Stephen because about six

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Speaker 1: weeks ago or so, maybe it was even December, I

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Speaker 1: can't remember exactly. I thought, what's up with the Pirates?

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Speaker 1: What's going on with them? Are they actually developing players?

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Speaker 1: Are they ever going to spend money? We need to

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Speaker 1: ask some questions here. So Steven and I started asking

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Speaker 1: some questions, started calling former employees, former players, current players,

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Speaker 1: all kinds of people. We spoke to more than twenty

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Speaker 1: people in total. And this story was kind of built

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Speaker 1: around the idea that Bob Nutting believes that they now

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Speaker 1: can contend. They're now ready to contend. Here's what he

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Speaker 1: told us for the story. To quote from Bob Nutting,

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Speaker 1: the owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates, he said, we collectively

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Speaker 1: believe we can compete for the division and a postseason birth. Now,

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Speaker 1: most other people don't believe that. The Pirates are projected

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Speaker 1: to finish last. By most everyone, they have spent the

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Speaker 1: least amount of money in free agency of any team

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Speaker 1: in the National League Central. Their farm system is pretty good.

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Speaker 1: It's ranked ninth by Keith Law. But the other teams

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Speaker 1: in the Annal Central are all in the top fifteen

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Speaker 1: as well, so it's not like the Pirates are way

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Speaker 1: above anyone. And yes, we focused on Nutting's lack of spending,

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Speaker 1: and yesterday, after the story came out, they signed Mitch

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Speaker 1: Keller to a five year, seventy sevenllion dollar extension. The

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Speaker 1: Pirates have done that on occasion, they've signed players to extensions.

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Speaker 1: But when you don't spend in free agency, and this

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Speaker 1: is the heart of what we were driving at, when

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Speaker 1: you don't spend in free agency, you've got to nail

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Speaker 1: player development, you've got to nail scouting, you've got to

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Speaker 1: nail international. Are the Pirates doing that? The questions we

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Speaker 1: asked in the story, in my mind, were legitimate questions

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Speaker 1: about how that process is gone. They have some players,

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Speaker 1: and they have some players coming, and Ben Sherrington told

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Speaker 1: us for the stories, they're going to get multiple major

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Speaker 1: league contributors. It's certainly possible, and the verdict is not

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Speaker 1: in yet. But have they developed like the Orioles or

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers. No, they have not, and they have to.

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Speaker 1: They don't have a choice because Nutting is not going

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Speaker 1: to spend on free agents. And also part of the

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Speaker 1: story was the interesting interlude with Cabrian Hayes, the third baseman,

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Speaker 1: and their former double A hitting coach John Nutteley. Hayes

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Speaker 1: went to Nuttley last season because he needed help. He

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Speaker 1: was tired of not performing to the level he did

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Speaker 1: in his rookie year and he wanted to go to

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Speaker 1: someone he trusted has had success with, and it happened

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Speaker 1: to be the guy, not in the major league staff,

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Speaker 1: but the guy at Double A. Players use outside hating

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Speaker 1: coaches all the time. It's not uncommon. Sometimes they're outside

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Speaker 1: the organization entirely. In fact, often they are. It's pretty

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Speaker 1: rare when they go inside the organization. But the whole

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Speaker 1: situation kind of spoke to a conflict that goes on

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Speaker 1: with many clubs and enduring conflict between the old school

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Speaker 1: and new school. Not only was more of an old

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Speaker 1: school guy, the Pirates have gone more new school in

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Speaker 1: some of their teachings, and for whatever reason this just

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Speaker 1: did not work out. The Pirates let none only go

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Speaker 1: at the end of the season. Bottom line is we

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Speaker 1: at the Athletic are going to continue to write these

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Speaker 1: stories and explore different teams that are struggling. I've done

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Speaker 1: it in combination with some of our writers on several

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Speaker 1: teams at this point. Dennis Lynn with the padres Nick

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Speaker 1: broke when he was with us on the Rockies, I've

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Speaker 1: written about the Marlins. To me, these teams are worthy

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Speaker 1: of deeper explorations. And I know some fans were wondering

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Speaker 1: about the timing of the story, and that's fair because

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Speaker 1: spring training right is supposed to be a time of optimism.

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Speaker 1: But I would ask in response, what exactly is the

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Speaker 1: right time to drop a story like this? Is it

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Speaker 1: opening day? Is it the start of the off season.

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Speaker 1: It's never going to be a happy time or a

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Speaker 1: happy occasion. Now. I do appreciate a lot of Pirates

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Speaker 1: fans tweeting at Steven and I the next day saying, hey,

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Speaker 1: you guys criticize them for their lack of spending, and

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Speaker 1: they just signed Mitch Keller. Write another article and maybe

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Speaker 1: we'll get O'Neil Cruz. Well that's not how it works.

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Speaker 1: We're not going to do that. But you know what,

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Speaker 1: the Pirates should explore an extension with O'Neil Cruz. Now

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Speaker 1: onto another story I wrote last week. This one about

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Speaker 1: free agent left hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who agreed to a

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Speaker 1: four year, eighty million dollar contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks

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Speaker 1: early in the offseason. Looks like a pretty good deal

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Speaker 1: considering that Blake Snell is still out there, Jordan Montgomery

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Speaker 1: still out there, and EDWARDA. Rodriguez has eighty million guaranteed coming.

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Speaker 1: And what I wrote about, and I talked about this

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Speaker 1: on foul Territory, is that in the early days of

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Speaker 1: camp Rodriguez has taken on a leadership role with the Diamondbacks.

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Speaker 1: He's kind of mentoring their younger pittures. I wrote about

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Speaker 1: a scene in the clubhouse where he got down on

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Speaker 1: his knees, kind of got into a sprinter's position, as

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Speaker 1: if he was a sprinter in a starting block, and

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Speaker 1: explained in Spanish to three younger pitchers that Usain Bolt

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Speaker 1: trains four years to run ten seconds and that's the

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Speaker 1: way he fine tunes his mechanics, his body, his positioning,

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Speaker 1: and pitchers should do the same to get to the

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Speaker 1: point where you don't even have to think about how

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Speaker 1: you're throwing the pitch. You just have your body so

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Speaker 1: in sync you throw it. There's a fun story to

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Speaker 1: work on. And yet I anticipated and received some blowback

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Speaker 1: from Tigers fans who said, whoa, whoa, whoa, Wait a second,

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Speaker 1: this cat in twenty twenty two took more than two

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Speaker 1: months off was away from the team on the restricted

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Speaker 1: list because of issues that were reported later to be

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Speaker 1: marital problems. He bailed on the Tigers, and last year

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three trade deadline, he rejected a trade to

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers that, of course, could have brought the Tigers

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Speaker 1: some prospects. Understood, all that is fair, But when I

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Speaker 1: look at players, when I write, when I look at

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Speaker 1: teams for that matter, I have to stay open minded

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Speaker 1: and I kind of have to write what I see now. Certainly,

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Speaker 1: the past is informing the present as well, and I

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Speaker 1: wrote about all of those things that happened with the

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Speaker 1: Tigers and tried to give some context there. But as

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Speaker 1: I said on foul Territory, just because the Tigers fans

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Speaker 1: or certain Tigers fans have a narrative in their heads

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Speaker 1: that essentially had water Ragriguez as a bum, that narrative

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Speaker 1: is not permanent. That narrative can change. And he talked

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Speaker 1: to me about Pedro Martinez and how Pedro mentored him

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Speaker 1: with the Red Sox and how he wants to do

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Speaker 1: the same for younger players. He did that in Detroit

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Speaker 1: last year when he had his life straightened out, when

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Speaker 1: he was just in a better place emotionally and mentally.

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Speaker 1: Will he sustain this, I don't know, and maybe he won't.

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Speaker 1: And I know some people who follow the Red Sox

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Speaker 1: probably were questioning this whole idea of him as a

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Speaker 1: leader as well. But again I saw it my own eyes,

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Speaker 1: and I got this idea initially from someone with the

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Speaker 1: Diamondbacks I don't know, a couple of weeks ago, and

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Speaker 1: Rodriguez was already in camp and he was impressed. This

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Speaker 1: person with the Diamondbacks was by what Rodriguez was doing,

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Speaker 1: not just with his work, but with the way he

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Speaker 1: was dealing with younger players and reaching out to them

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Speaker 1: and being a positive force for them. So I went

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Speaker 1: to the camp, saw it for myself with my own

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Speaker 1: eyes and decided it was worth writing. If I have

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Speaker 1: to eat these words, if I have to eat my

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Speaker 1: words on the Pirates, it wouldn't be the first time,

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Speaker 1: all right, Dude and Dork of the Week. The Dude

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Speaker 1: of the Week is an entity. It's a group. It

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Speaker 1: is a legion of Oakland, A's fans who turned out,

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Speaker 1: created their own FanFest and pulled the thing off. From

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Speaker 1: what I understand, thousands of people were there, foul territory

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Speaker 1: was there, Scott Braun and Mark Wiener, and it was

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Speaker 1: something to behold. It was a true grassroots experience for

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Speaker 1: those fans, and it was a statement as well to Oakland,

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Speaker 1: to the Oakland A's to major League Baseball that people care,

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Speaker 1: people really care in Oakland. And granted it's a small

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Speaker 1: number of people going to the games, has been for

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Speaker 1: a few years, yes, because that's the way the team

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Speaker 1: has been run. It's been run to basically alienate the

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Speaker 1: fan base. But there is a fan base there and

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Speaker 1: you put a successful team on the field in a

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Speaker 1: new ballpark, try them, try and see how they respond

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Speaker 1: at that point, because you know what that place, Oakland,

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Speaker 1: the Bay Area, the East Bay, there is a group

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Speaker 1: there that is waiting to embrace this team. Again, it's

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Speaker 1: not going to happen. I don't think. I do believe

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Speaker 1: they're going to Vegas. But the Oakland A's fans due

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Speaker 1: to the week, cool fan fest, awesome event. I tip

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Speaker 1: my hat to you guys. That was great. Dirk of

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Speaker 1: the week. Oh, I will give it to another entity,

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Speaker 1: this entity being major League Baseball, and it's not for

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Speaker 1: its conduct with the Oakland A's move to Las Vegas,

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Speaker 1: so that could be dork of the week. In another respect,

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Speaker 1: it's about the uniform situation, the sea through pants, the

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Speaker 1: small letters, the whole kabash. Now I know, MLB has

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Speaker 1: been putting out statements and defending itself, Nike has been

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Speaker 1: putting out statements defending themselves. Guys, the players aren't happy.

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Speaker 1: That's your constituency, and we can argue all day about

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Speaker 1: whether these pants are see through or not. MLB seems

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Speaker 1: to want to have an argument about that. To me,

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Speaker 1: the most glaring issue is the fact that the letters

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Speaker 1: on the jerseys are smaller than before. We're supposed to

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Speaker 1: be marketing this game, promoting the players, giving voice and

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Speaker 1: visibility to the great talent that exists in Major League

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Speaker 1: Baseball today, and effectively we're making their names harder to see.

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Speaker 1: You tell me how that makes sense. And MLB again

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Speaker 1: is taking a defensive position, as they often do when

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Speaker 1: under fire, And I get it. They feel that they

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Speaker 1: tested these things at the All Star Game. They didn't

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Speaker 1: hear much blowback. It's not that big a deal. Maybe

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Speaker 1: they have a point, but you know what, your players

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Speaker 1: are unhappy, Your fans are saying, what the heck is

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Speaker 1: going on and you know what, Also, it would be

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Speaker 1: nice once in a while for this league to say, hey,

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Speaker 1: we screwed up. Let's fix this, and we can do

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Speaker 1: it pretty easily. It's uniforms for crying out loud. You

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Speaker 1: should be able to manufacture another set Dorks of the

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Speaker 1: Week MLB. Time now for Grill and Ken. Let's get

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Speaker 1: to the questions. The first one comes from Jerry Caale.

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Speaker 1: Jerry asks, how I'm pronouncing your name right? First of all, Jerry,

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Speaker 1: but you ask, after all that happened, do you think

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Speaker 1: the Mariners are a better team this year? This is

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Speaker 1: an interesting question because a lot happened with the Mariners

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Speaker 1: this offseason. It started with ownership freaking out over their

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Speaker 1: local television situation. Jerry Depoto needing to cut payroll, he

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Speaker 1: traded Jared Kellenick with some other money, he traded at

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Speaker 1: Johannas Suarez, and then he traded Robbie Ray in a

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Speaker 1: deal that brought back Mitch Hanneger. They acquired along the way.

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Speaker 1: In addition to Hanneger Luke Railey, they picked up Gregory

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Speaker 1: Santos from the White Sox, and their final move was

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Speaker 1: a really good one. Jorge point from the twins. So

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Speaker 1: are they a better team. It's difficult to know. It's

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Speaker 1: a different team. They wanted to be more contact oriented,

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Speaker 1: but they could be better because they're starting pitching. Is

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Speaker 1: that good They're going to be in games? And they've

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Speaker 1: also shown that they can put together a bullpen. So

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Speaker 1: with the starting group they have Luris Castillo and George Kirby, Logan,

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Speaker 1: Gilbert Brian wu Bryce Miller, that's a pretty formidable five

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Speaker 1: right there. They don't have the depth that they once did,

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Speaker 1: but that's a good group. They've shown an ability to

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Speaker 1: put together good bullpens. So the question is will they

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Speaker 1: score more runs? That's an open question. But I like Polanco.

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Speaker 1: If Hanniger stays healthy, I know we say that every year.

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Speaker 1: He is a formidable offensive player. Luke Raley was a

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Speaker 1: good addition as well, So I'm interested to see the

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Speaker 1: Mariners bottom line. I thought to Poto and his general manager,

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Speaker 1: Justin Hollander, did as good a job as they possibly

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Speaker 1: could have under the circumstances. All right, next question comes

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Speaker 1: from JC, who asks there is no possible way for

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Speaker 1: the Angels to replace Otani, but why does it feel

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Speaker 1: like they're not really trying that hard to get better

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Speaker 1: this offseason. Good question, JC. They haven't done a whole lot,

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Speaker 1: and I get people saying, well, where are the Angels?

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Speaker 1: What is their vision? That is always a fair question

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Speaker 1: with the Angels. They've made some moves to upgrade their bullpen,

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Speaker 1: They've done things on the edges. They haven't really made

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Speaker 1: a big move, certainly, not any move that will even

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Speaker 1: come close to replacing the offense that they lost with

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Speaker 1: Otani going to the Dodgers. They feel that if their

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Speaker 1: position group stays healthy and again huge, if it's a

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Speaker 1: pretty good team, a pretty good offensive team. Now, of course,

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Speaker 1: this requires Trout to be on the field, That requires

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Speaker 1: Rendon't to be on the field. No guarantee either of

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Speaker 1: those guys will be on the field for as much

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Speaker 1: as the Angels want. They feel that they're pitching can

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Speaker 1: be better than it was last year, and they feel

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Speaker 1: that their bullpen is a bit improved. We'll see. Robert

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Speaker 1: Stevenson certainly was a big signing for them, and he

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Speaker 1: will help. But would you like to see them do

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Speaker 1: one more thing? I guess you would. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if they're going to spend on pitching Artie Moreno when

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Speaker 1: he has spent in the past has spent on hitters,

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Speaker 1: not pitchers. So they are who they are, and I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure where they are. No one seems to be

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Speaker 1: sure where they are. But it all starts with Trout

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Speaker 1: being on the field and Rendon on the field. If

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Speaker 1: that happens, this team could be mildly interesting. Final question

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Speaker 1: comes from a depressed Sinci fan. Depressed since fan asked

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Speaker 1: which team didn't make the playoffs last year? Would you

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Speaker 1: pick to make it this year? How about if I

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Speaker 1: undepress the pressed Cincifan and predict that the Reds are

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Speaker 1: going to make the playoffs. I was at Red's camp yesterday,

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Speaker 1: in fact, and there is a lot of optimism there. Granted,

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Speaker 1: there is a lot of optimism at all thirty camps,

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Speaker 1: even the White Sox, even the Pirates, but the Reds

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Speaker 1: feel that they're really deep on the position player side,

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Speaker 1: and they feel that their young pitching is coming on

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Speaker 1: and will supplement what they've added. Frankie Montas looks great,

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Speaker 1: Nick Martinez will be a valuable guy as he's always been.

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Speaker 1: Emilio Pagan coming to the bullpen as well, John mcclandelario

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Speaker 1: joining the offensive side of it. That team has a

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Speaker 1: good vibe about it, and I don't know what it

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Speaker 1: translates to. There's still awfully young in many areas, but

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Speaker 1: they're going to be quite interesting and that's central. The

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Speaker 1: NAL Central is going to be wide open. The Brewers,

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Speaker 1: I believe, will be better than a lot of us think,

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Speaker 1: even without Corbyn Burns. The Cubs got better this weekend

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Speaker 1: with Cody Bellinger. The Pirates field they're coming despite what

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Speaker 1: I wrote about them with stephen Nesbitt. And overall, this

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Speaker 1: is a division that seems to be one that is

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Speaker 1: there for the taking. So, depressed Reds fan or depressed

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Speaker 1: Cinci fan, you heard it here first. The Reds are

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Speaker 1: making the playoffs. Thanks to everyone for listening, Thanks for watching,

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Speaker 1: Thanks for all your questions as well. You know where

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Speaker 1: to find us YouTube, Apple, Spotify, subscribe to us like us,

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Speaker 1: and remember watch foul Territory as well. That show has

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Speaker 1: been hot as of late. We'll be back next week.

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Speaker 2: Place your first bet MGM sportsbook way through through the

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