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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are parts of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman, chief content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: We are live from our Tommy John home studios. I

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Speaker 1: just love the fact that Tommy John is basically sponsoring

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Speaker 1: my office. I'm joined as always by my co host,

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Speaker 1: my companion, Michael Padre might BFF professional better signon Hunter,

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Speaker 1: Hello som it.

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Speaker 2: Hello Chad.

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Speaker 3: Week two a reaction week. Brother, what are we overacting to?

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Speaker 1: Oh? Basically everything I know? Like I know the second

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Speaker 1: we mentioned the Carolina Panthers, We're just gonna blow up

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Speaker 1: our YouTube chat and uh bring the the power of

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Speaker 1: vikings upon our head from our listeners. And we deserve

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Speaker 1: it for that look. Wild and wacky Week one that

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Speaker 1: ended with the Jets Niners game on Monday night, which

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Speaker 1: we had included in our Phase five picks, and we

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Speaker 1: had the Jets. Because of that game, we finished two

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Speaker 1: and three for the week. Our foxhole was very lonely

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Speaker 1: because that pick was the Giants. My exact decision was

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Speaker 1: Carolina enough said there, Your assignment says was indeed very

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Speaker 1: well done. Our first Tommy John, Big balls better the

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Speaker 1: season was Detroit and we won that. Simon, Is it

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Speaker 1: possible we're the Cincinnati Bengals of podcast prognosticators because this

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Speaker 1: is the second year in a row where we started

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Speaker 1: off a little bit slow.

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Speaker 3: No, I think I think it was two years ago

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Speaker 3: we started five and now I think it just says

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Speaker 3: more that it's good to be Joe Public. Right, four

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Speaker 3: and oh five the Favorites with four in the primetime games?

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Speaker 3: Was it thirteen and three straight up favorites?

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Speaker 1: Yep? Yeah, last year the Favorites. By the way, if

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Speaker 1: you were betting the Favorites, you were ROI positive for

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Speaker 1: the first time in the entire generation. We've been tracking

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Speaker 1: that in the Action Network with all of our data.

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Speaker 1: So listen, I don't want to dwell on the week.

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Speaker 1: This is what our Sunday recap episode is for. You

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Speaker 1: can catch that episode in every episode of the Favorites

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Speaker 1: live only on the Action Network YouTube channel. Be sure

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Speaker 1: to like and subscribe. In a moment, we'll recap the

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Speaker 1: results of week one in our contest, will announce the

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Speaker 1: winner of our first one thousand dollars weekly cash prize.

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Speaker 1: If you're new here, you need to sign up for

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Speaker 1: the Free Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

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Speaker 1: Pick Them contest presented by BED three six five. Remember

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Speaker 1: we will drop your worst score after week five. So

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Speaker 1: even if you've forgot to sign up and didn't make

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Speaker 1: any picks, you've still got time five picks against the

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Speaker 1: spread each week one hundred grand in cash prizes up

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Speaker 1: for grabs. First place gets forty thousand dollars. Sign up

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Speaker 1: Favorites that Action Network dot Com Again, Favorites that Action

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Speaker 1: Network dot Com. No reason to be listening to the

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Speaker 1: show and not signing up for that if you can

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Speaker 1: win money every week just by just putting picks in

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Speaker 1: a free game as a reminder of the Favorite podcast's presented

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Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty five and now new BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 1: when you bet five bucks. Sign up using promo code

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Speaker 1: Favorites deposit ten dollars in place a bet for five

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Speaker 1: dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those

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Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used for spreads, totals, player props, futures,

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Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary at bet

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Speaker 1: three six five. Must be twenty one or older and

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: we're eighteen and older. In Kentucky, gambling problem one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred gambler one eight hundred bets off. In Iowa, terms

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Speaker 1: conditioned restrictions apply. Finally, Contest Recap Tough Week. In the contest,

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Speaker 1: only one point three percent of participants went five to oh, sigmon.

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Speaker 1: Congratulations to our first weekly winner the season. See J

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Speaker 1: Childs nineteen ninety three went five and oh in the

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Speaker 1: contest and missed the tiebreaker by one yards. So did

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Speaker 1: another entry. However, c J submitted picks first and the

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Speaker 1: earlier submission time wins, So enjoy your thousand dollars cash, CJ.

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Speaker 1: As always, our producer Matt Mitchell, has selected his Producer's

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Speaker 1: Cup award for the entry that finished dead fucking last

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Speaker 1: in the contest.

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Speaker 2: Have you heard about the Lord and lose?

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Speaker 3: He's a louis About He's still kidding try.

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Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to Seth Dog, who went

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Speaker 1: zero to five and missed the tiebreaker by four hundred

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Speaker 1: and fourteen yards seth Dog. Please email Matt Podcasts at

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Speaker 1: Actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize time for week two.

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Speaker 1: So some of this season long props that we are

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Speaker 1: going to be tracking. Trevor Lawrence with the league in

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Speaker 1: passing twenty two to one in the first half. He

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Speaker 1: looked like a world beater. Aiden hutchinsonid to lead the

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Speaker 1: league in sacks at fourteen to one. If anyone watched

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Speaker 1: Convince Me, our Sunday morning YouTube show eleven am in

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Speaker 1: the Action Network app on YouTube, Sean Kerner gave out

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Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson over seven point seventy five sacks. He got

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Speaker 1: that on the second and last play of the game

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Speaker 1: and he was in Matthew Stafford's grill all freaking night.

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Speaker 1: So that was a deserved win. Cooper Cup thirty to

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Speaker 1: one to lead the league in receiving yard it pretty strong.

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Speaker 2: That started ten to one, ten to one, Yeah, so

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Speaker 2: that was a nice one.

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Speaker 1: Dude, Simon, you know what, You're so good.

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Speaker 2: That's all it takes.

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Speaker 1: Thanks, Jeff, You're so good man. I love you. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna give a couple of friends that are relevant. I

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Speaker 1: don't want to repeat them every time, So if I

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Speaker 1: if I say the trends are relevant during the game

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Speaker 1: during one of our breakdowns. It's referring to these Week

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Speaker 1: one and two one to five and a half point

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Speaker 1: underdogs are sixty four percent since two thousand and eighteen,

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Speaker 1: but they did go four and eight in week one,

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Speaker 1: So should we expect a regression at this point? Favorites

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Speaker 1: of one to three and a half forty three percent

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Speaker 1: in September the past twenty years, and those small favorites

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Speaker 1: especially don't perform well in the first three weeks when

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Speaker 1: they are just forty two percent two thousand and fourteen,

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Speaker 1: flip side eight and four in week one. So either

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Speaker 1: the trend is dead this year because the public is

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Speaker 1: doing so well as we've seen, or there's going to

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Speaker 1: be a regression. Here we go, buddy, Here we go.

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Speaker 1: Thursday night football, Buffalo, Miami. A lot of intrigue here.

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen injured practicing. Game opened at one Miami at

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Speaker 1: one on Sunday night. Moved up, got up to two

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Speaker 1: and a half, and I was back down to two

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Speaker 1: at bet three six five seeing one and a half

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Speaker 1: at some at some books, give me the under I don't.

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Speaker 1: I don't have any Wow.

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Speaker 3: Now the only play here is Miami and Miami is

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Speaker 3: the play definitely in the spot short week the Bills

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Speaker 3: coming off that win they had compared to this Miami

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Speaker 3: team that they know they stole one, right, I just

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Speaker 3: think it they played as bad as they could possibly

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Speaker 3: play and they still won that game, where I think

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Speaker 3: we might have seen one of the best games you

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Speaker 3: possibly see at a job shound that Bills team.

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Speaker 1: Right, there's number one rule when you when you love somebody,

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Speaker 1: tell him my God.

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Speaker 4: I love Josh Allen, so we love love God.

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Speaker 2: Goodbye.

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Speaker 3: I think he had four total touchdowns and he was

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Speaker 3: just it was all clicking, especially in that second half

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Speaker 3: against an Arizona defense. I think Miami's defense is much

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Speaker 3: better than Arizona's defense, especially their secondary and offensively. I

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Speaker 3: like the matchup for Miami, man, like they're the speedsters.

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Speaker 3: I don't know what the counter to that is for

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Speaker 3: this Bills team. So we talk all the time. Chat

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Speaker 3: if it's under three and it's two at home, we

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Speaker 3: take this spot, don't we like? Unless unless they're playing,

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Speaker 3: you know, one of the better teams of football. If

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Speaker 3: they're playing the forty nine ers or the Chiefs, I

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Speaker 3: would definitely be hesitating less. They're a big dog. But

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Speaker 3: in this spot, this doesn't feel like this is the

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Speaker 3: same old Bills man, Like there is a weakness to

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Speaker 3: this team. There is a reason to doubt this Bills team.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, before he came on, Matt Mitchell gave me

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Speaker 3: a little bit of relief, said that the the the

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Speaker 3: whatever is going on, Josh Allen, It's not a break, right,

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Speaker 3: That's what the fear was that he had maybe broken

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Speaker 3: his wrist. It's you know, we don't know what it

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Speaker 3: is yet, right, it's still early.

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Speaker 2: In the week.

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Speaker 3: I mean, God forbid, the forty nine ers didn te

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Speaker 3: Us McCaffrey was out until an hour before. Like, we

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Speaker 3: might not really know until right before kick what is

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Speaker 3: happening with his wrist. But if you can't take snaps

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Speaker 3: under center, that's a huge deal going forward for this

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Speaker 3: Hill's team. That he's always gonna have to be in shotgun,

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Speaker 3: that is a big deal. So yeah, this this feels

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Speaker 3: that kind of spot we like to play Miami. I

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Speaker 3: know we can't take them to contest, but if people

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Speaker 3: are gonna ask me what side do I like here

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Speaker 3: at minus two? As long as it you know, hopefully

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Speaker 3: maybe goes back down on one and a half, but

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Speaker 3: it might go up to two and a half. But

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Speaker 3: as long as it's two or down to one and

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Speaker 3: a half, I like Miami at that number.

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Speaker 1: So I guess what was confusing to me is this

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Speaker 1: seems to me like you're playing what you saw on

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Speaker 1: the field in one game for each team and discounting

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Speaker 1: a lot of the trends that we usually rely on

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Speaker 1: in the first two weeks, all of which I just mentioned.

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Speaker 3: And well you said historically I always take my like

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Speaker 3: I take two in the spot, so this is not

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Speaker 3: this year.

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Speaker 2: This is last year too.

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Speaker 3: So my guy, Evan Abrams, you got this in the

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Speaker 3: chat chat. Yeah, it's just sad two of favors of

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Speaker 3: three or less at home nine to three against the spread.

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Speaker 3: So suck on that, mister. One week chat.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't the criticism what you're saying, but no, it's observation.

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Speaker 1: Just that.

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Speaker 2: No, I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: You know, like normally we like at least two weeks

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Speaker 1: of sort of data, and I always feel like week

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Speaker 1: three is when we can maybe be a week ahead

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Speaker 1: of the public, like we will have been able to

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Speaker 1: see things in the games and then apply that to

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Speaker 1: how bookmakers are lining these games after two weeks efectively

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Speaker 1: than we can after one week. And so to me,

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Speaker 1: all I'm saying is you're seeing on the fields some

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Speaker 1: things that make you feel like after both teams kind

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Speaker 1: of snuck out of the game at home for each

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Speaker 1: of them with a win. Right the Bills, they were

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Speaker 1: kind of they were getting blown out early, they were

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Speaker 1: down ten. I think they had to come back. They

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Speaker 1: got that game.

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Speaker 2: It was seventeen to three in that game.

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Speaker 1: Seventeen to three. So they came back with like you know,

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Speaker 1: because the Cardinals did Cardinals things. They made mistakes. Their defense,

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Speaker 1: you know, wasn't very good, which we expected. Kyler Murray

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Speaker 1: was playing as we hoped he would, and the Jags

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Speaker 1: basically gave that game away to Miami. So neither team

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Speaker 1: showed anything on the upside. They played like the teams

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Speaker 1: that are fallible that we expect them to be. That's

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Speaker 1: why I'm surprised a little bit by your strong opinion here.

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Speaker 3: And wait on the injury report to ken because Miami

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Speaker 3: also both their starting runbacks might be hurt. And again

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Speaker 3: we don't know what the deals with Josh Allen. So

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Speaker 3: if you want to wait, I tell that A and

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Speaker 3: I'm just grabbing this number now just in case it

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Speaker 3: does go up.

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Speaker 1: I am going to spare our listeners time on the

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Speaker 1: next game, LA Chargers of Carolina. Carolina is a six

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Speaker 1: and a half point undered up. Should we even bother?

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Speaker 1: Of course, the right side is the Panthers. I refuse

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Speaker 1: to subject our listeners to this kind of torture or

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Speaker 1: open ourselves up to even more ridicule.

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Speaker 3: No, just know this is the pro side. Of course,

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Speaker 3: it's bet in Carolina and the Chargers. If you have time,

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Speaker 3: go and watch Herbert.

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Speaker 2: In that game.

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Speaker 3: I mean, oh my god, this man did not look

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Speaker 3: like the Herbert we all know and love. So the

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Speaker 3: horrball identity of just the run scheme I love so much.

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Speaker 3: So I understand why the movements come in here because

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Speaker 3: they do have an identity where this Carolina team has

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Speaker 3: zero and they have zero leadership. So Chad's Hesitation's right.

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Speaker 3: I won't be giving this out on this show people.

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Speaker 3: If you're gonna ask what side I'm on, obviously I'm

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Speaker 3: on the side of Carolina and probably gonna put them

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Speaker 3: in our money line round robin that I like to

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Speaker 3: give out.

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Speaker 2: So I know it's gross, but it's.

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Speaker 3: Like giving me plus two point fifty at home against

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Speaker 3: this Chargers team on the road. I have to do it.

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Speaker 3: So we'll not be one of our one of our five.

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Speaker 3: I promise you that. But yeah, Chad's right, we'll keep

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Speaker 3: it moving.

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Speaker 1: This is the hard part about what we do and

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Speaker 1: doing it for public consumption, is we love the Panthers.

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Speaker 1: We talked about the Panthers. You know, we were standing

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Speaker 1: our ground on the Panthers. We also stood our ground

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Speaker 1: on the Lions. We also stood our ground on the Colts.

249
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Speaker 1: And like each game is only one game, but because

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Speaker 1: the Panthers were such an ugly dog, and because we

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Speaker 1: leaned into them so hard, even though it only counts

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Speaker 1: as one loss and the same way the Colts only

253
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Speaker 1: count as one win, it has just become so much

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Speaker 1: harder for us to swallow that that they've become a

255
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Speaker 1: little bit of poison for us. We will both probably

256
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Speaker 1: be on the Panthers. We will not put this in

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Speaker 1: the contest naked a big balls or anything else, as

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Speaker 1: tempted as we are going to be. When this game

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden rockets to seven on Thursday, Like

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Speaker 1: we just can't do it to people.

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Speaker 2: We can the Panthers.

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Speaker 3: It's what people hate about someone like me who does profession,

263
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Speaker 3: which is like you think you're so smart, you think

264
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Speaker 3: you know what so much more than me. I could

265
00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,280
Speaker 3: have told you six months ago that was a bad bet,

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Speaker 3: that the Panthers suck and they're a shitty team. It's

267
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Speaker 3: like you got me, like there is no rebuttal to that,

268
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Speaker 3: Like you got me after one week. So that's why

269
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Speaker 3: I'm praying, praying shad that that was mirage and they'd

270
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Speaker 3: turn around here. But man, me and you talked about it.

271
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Speaker 3: We watched that game tape. I broke that film down.

272
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Speaker 3: There is not much hope to grab onto. It just

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Speaker 3: all looks bad. So you are you and the fans

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Speaker 3: all right, we are not putting this team in. Even

275
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Speaker 3: if they do win and cover this game, I'm still

276
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Speaker 3: not gonna be convinced to put this one in for

277
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Speaker 3: a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's also the hard part about the trends and

279
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Speaker 1: doing this on a week to week basis, and especially

280
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Speaker 1: like making big bets and taking big risks in week one,

281
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Speaker 1: is people hear that and we try to say with

282
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Speaker 1: the trends, you got to bet them every time, because

283
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,000
Speaker 1: that's how you get the ROI, and that's how you

284
00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:26,360
Speaker 1: win fifty three percent of the time. Because if you

285
00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:28,800
Speaker 1: pick and choose your spots, then it could be that

286
00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:30,640
Speaker 1: you only choose it the four and a half to

287
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Speaker 1: five times that you lose. So you kind of once

288
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Speaker 1: you're in the game and you're grinding, you kind of

289
00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:39,880
Speaker 1: got to be in the game. It's it's like playing craps.

290
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Speaker 1: You can't just decide, like retenth role, you're gonna put

291
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Speaker 1: your money on the table. You got you gotta go

292
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Speaker 1: with it.

293
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Speaker 3: Man. Even even last night, right we had the best

294
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Speaker 3: of the number and we were in a spot of

295
00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:53,160
Speaker 3: a trend we loved. Right, the team that loses the

296
00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:55,920
Speaker 3: Super Bowl, they're five and nineteen against the spread in

297
00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:59,120
Speaker 3: those spots. The forty nine ers have had covered a

298
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Speaker 3: home game in seven straight games up to that point.

299
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Speaker 2: So it was like all these little things we loved

300
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Speaker 2: all let up to it. We got waxed.

301
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Speaker 3: We looked like an idiot, eg in our face are

302
00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,400
Speaker 3: we We're nineteen and six on that bet. So it's

303
00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,560
Speaker 3: just like it is brutal right, you're so right, Like

304
00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:15,880
Speaker 3: it didn't work out for this time, but long term

305
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:16,760
Speaker 3: that's a winner.

306
00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:18,560
Speaker 2: So it's one we're gonna stick to long term.

307
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Speaker 1: We're long term players here. We're not looking to score

308
00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,960
Speaker 1: big wins and then cash out. We just want to

309
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Speaker 1: keep going for the rest of our lives. New Orleans

310
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Speaker 1: at Dallas. Dallas is a six and a half point favorite.

311
00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:36,400
Speaker 1: The line was six on Sunday and it was moving.

312
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,560
Speaker 1: We talked about it on Sunday night. Is one of

313
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Speaker 1: the first games that we talked about and sort of

314
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Speaker 1: our look ahead, we both hit it. You thought it

315
00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,280
Speaker 1: might get the seven. It's currently headed that way. Where

316
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Speaker 1: do you have this power rated? Actually, before I get into.

317
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Speaker 3: That seven, and like, I liked it at the six, and

318
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,760
Speaker 3: now it's at six and a half, it's like, all right, really,

319
00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:56,480
Speaker 3: do we still really want to play this one or

320
00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,800
Speaker 3: really that confident because this is pretty chalky.

321
00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,040
Speaker 2: Yes, So we'll see as week.

322
00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:04,840
Speaker 3: Goes along here if this is one of the favorites,

323
00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:06,840
Speaker 3: we do put in. But I'm assum we're all the

324
00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:08,879
Speaker 3: other favorites we like more than this one. But like

325
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,520
Speaker 3: at six, that felt like a good number to take

326
00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:15,800
Speaker 3: Dallas at that number at home in this spot, you know,

327
00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 3: we crossed that key number of six into six and

328
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,880
Speaker 3: a half now, so it's like, yeah, my model says

329
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,560
Speaker 3: there's still value here, But I can't tell you how

330
00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:25,359
Speaker 3: many times me and chat had been burned by that

331
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:27,520
Speaker 3: extra point when we take a favorite in this spot.

332
00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:30,040
Speaker 3: So I don't want people here just to take the

333
00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,000
Speaker 3: six and a half just thinking, well, the guys are

334
00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:33,639
Speaker 3: on at six, I'll take the six and a half.

335
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:34,919
Speaker 2: It is a big deal to me.

336
00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,000
Speaker 3: So if this is a game me and you pass

337
00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:38,760
Speaker 3: on this week, I have no issue with that. But

338
00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 3: still like the Cowboys in this spot against a team

339
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,879
Speaker 3: that we don't think they're that great just because they

340
00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,320
Speaker 3: put up fifty points against bad Carolina team. It's just,

341
00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:52,320
Speaker 3: you know, my hope is that this would have got

342
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:54,040
Speaker 3: bet down and we would have got great value. And

343
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:55,760
Speaker 3: that's a game I would have gave it on the show.

344
00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:57,840
Speaker 3: If this was five and a half, I would have

345
00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,359
Speaker 3: played this in contest. But actually it's called the other way.

346
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,200
Speaker 3: I don't think the public's behind the bullshit. The Saints

347
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,200
Speaker 3: are selling. So yeah, this is up to six and

348
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:06,080
Speaker 3: a half of most books.

349
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:06,360
Speaker 2: Job.

350
00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:08,639
Speaker 1: Well, look, that's what's really interesting. That's what I was

351
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:12,360
Speaker 1: going to say, is you've got two teams coming off

352
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:18,240
Speaker 1: of blowouts. Yeah, except the Cowboys. If you unpack it,

353
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:22,800
Speaker 1: it's just so much more impressive. Right, And at the

354
00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:25,760
Speaker 1: end of the day, we're still talking about Dennis Allen

355
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:30,159
Speaker 1: and Derek Carr, who are historically bad as coach and

356
00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 1: quarterback straight up in this spot. So I have no

357
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,879
Speaker 1: fear of betting the Cowboys here. This is a game

358
00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:43,679
Speaker 1: where Dak and the Cowboys tend to overperform. We like

359
00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,760
Speaker 1: Dallas at six six and a half. It's a question mark.

360
00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,720
Speaker 1: This game may steam to seven because Dallas was so

361
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:54,680
Speaker 1: good and people may realize how bad the Saints really

362
00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:56,400
Speaker 1: are and that they beat up on just a really

363
00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 1: bad team. Yeah, Las Vegas at Baltimore.

364
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:04,479
Speaker 2: It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you.

365
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,640
Speaker 1: I know this number is way too high. I want

366
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,960
Speaker 1: to tell you something. I read this in The Athletic

367
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,320
Speaker 1: this weekend the other day, and I thought this was

368
00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 1: great in a wrap up of the Raiders game, because

369
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:20,160
Speaker 1: I thought the decision making by Antonio Pierce was atrocious.

370
00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 2: Now that game.

371
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:23,560
Speaker 1: All the way around, it cost them the game.

372
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:25,080
Speaker 2: It definitely did.

373
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 1: In the fourth quarter, they were down sixteen to ten.

374
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 1: They were on the Charger's forty three yard line. With

375
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 1: seven minutes fifteen seconds remaining, they had a fourth and one.

376
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 1: He decided not to go for it, and the camera

377
00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 1: actually caught him saying, as they're lining up for the punt,

378
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:48,119
Speaker 1: should I be going for this? For the Athletic, it

379
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,959
Speaker 1: was the first time an NFL team had punted on

380
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:56,840
Speaker 1: fourth and one from the opposing team's territory while trailing

381
00:19:56,960 --> 00:20:00,919
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter since September eleventh, twenty sixteen, so

382
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,879
Speaker 1: eight years. The Athletic rowth this was funny. It was

383
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 1: the league's most timid play call in that situation in

384
00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:14,879
Speaker 1: nearly eight years. I mean, what, how can we count

385
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,520
Speaker 1: a coach like that, even as a nine and a

386
00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:18,359
Speaker 1: half point dog?

387
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:19,200
Speaker 2: Ah?

388
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,719
Speaker 3: Man, I know what if it's ten points, does that

389
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 3: intrigue you a little? Because I think it's going to

390
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,879
Speaker 3: get there. I just I think the public'sent of the

391
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 3: view just as you're viewing it. And my hope is,

392
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 3: you know, someone gets in his ear and says, listen,

393
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:36,320
Speaker 3: last year, when you were playing for a job, you

394
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,919
Speaker 3: were winning, you were aggressive, it worked out for you.

395
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,080
Speaker 3: Now you're playing to keep your job and you're going

396
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 3: to lose your job if you play to keep if

397
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 3: you're playing this way.

398
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,080
Speaker 2: So my fear with him is he doesn't know what

399
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 2: he's doing.

400
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 3: Right in the first half, he was going for it

401
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 3: on their own side of the ball, like he was

402
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,400
Speaker 3: super aggressive, and then it didn't work out for him.

403
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 3: So now he's going the other way and playing really conservative,

404
00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 3: and it's like, dude, you're the team that has the

405
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 3: two turnovers in this game.

406
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 2: You can't be going conservative.

407
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,400
Speaker 3: You're You're they're out gaining them and doing everything they

408
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 3: wanted to against that charges team and they only put

409
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 3: up ten points.

410
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:08,960
Speaker 2: I mean, Minshew had a good game.

411
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 3: I know people want a bag on them, but it's

412
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 3: like he actually played pretty well in that game all

413
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 3: things considered.

414
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 2: So uh yeah, I get I get.

415
00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,480
Speaker 3: The hesitation, Chad, but you probably don't remember it. I do,

416
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 3: just because I remember a lot of our fun, ugly wins.

417
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 3: But we took the Raiders this exact scenario, you know,

418
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:34,399
Speaker 3: not even I don't know, two years ago, and they

419
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 3: were like a ten point dog I think against the Ravens,

420
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 3: and I'm pretty sure they won outright, So.

421
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 2: How do we not play this spot.

422
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 3: I'm just I'm so tempted to take it because it

423
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 3: is one of the ugly dogs of the week, and

424
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,880
Speaker 3: this this feels like what since he was last week, right,

425
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 3: since he losing outright broke all the survivor pools, That's

426
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,120
Speaker 3: what feels like this Ravens team could be this week

427
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 3: where it's like everyone looks at like an easy game

428
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 3: where I like the guys up front match up again,

429
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 3: says Ravens front. Like again, that's the questions, right, the

430
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:07,120
Speaker 3: Ravens front. I don't think they looked that great against

431
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 3: that Chiefs team.

432
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 1: Chet so about their offensive line.

433
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I don't know. Maybe I'll better get you

434
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 3: there by Thursday show. But if it's ten ten and

435
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 3: a half, how do we not get this in contest?

436
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 3: That's such a huge number for a Ravens team that

437
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,639
Speaker 3: I don't think they deserve that type of respect yet.

438
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 1: Well, look, I'm not gonna lie to you. I'm feeling

439
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,879
Speaker 1: a little chalky today. A lot of games. I like, Okay,

440
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 1: we're chalky. I wasn't saying I wanted to bet the

441
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 1: Ravens at minus nine and a half. I was just

442
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 1: saying I wasn't committed to the Raiders yet, even though

443
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 1: of course this is the right side part of it

444
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 1: is a bias, Like you know, I don't think this

445
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 1: is a very good team, and you and I just

446
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 1: happened to disagree on this. I know you like the

447
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,920
Speaker 1: Raiders and they're over. We couldn't get together and decide

448
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,880
Speaker 1: that we liked the Raiders in the game last weekend.

449
00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: I just don't trust them as a team right now. Minshew,

450
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 1: it was great twenty five or three three, I think,

451
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 1: yeah for two fifty seven in a touchdown one thing.

452
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 1: And the Ravens were not great on Thursday night. They

453
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 1: were not great on Thursday night, and they were a

454
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 1: toenail away from tying the game against the Kansas City Chiefs,

455
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 1: who will make all of this look so freaking easy,

456
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 1: right And so like then, I know John Harbaugh, if

457
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 1: he is coming off a buy or has at least

458
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 1: ten days to prepare twenty seven and eight straight up

459
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 1: twenty thirteen and two against the spread. Technically this is

460
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 1: nine days. So do I count this as nine days?

461
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 1: Do I count this as ten days?

462
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 2: Do I put this in the spread?

463
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 3: The lad brother, I mean it was seven seven and

464
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 3: a half and now it's up to nine and a half. Ten,

465
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 3: So like that's that is a lot of movement as well.

466
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right, we're probably gonna have to bet this

467
00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 1: gonna be. This is gonna be a hold your nose

468
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 1: and bet the number game. It is not right now,

469
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: we're not announcing it's a foxhole. It's definitely not assignment

470
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 1: says it's not an exec decision. Bucks at Lions another

471
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 1: big number. That number has moved from six to seven. Look,

472
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 1: we wanted to bet the Rams last week, and the

473
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 1: more we broke it down foundationally roster wise, we truly

474
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,880
Speaker 1: believe this Lions team was just better all the way around,

475
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: and in the end we were proven right. It had

476
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: to be a terrible sweat because the Rams realized their

477
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 1: offensive line is so bad. Matthew Stafford basically had to

478
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 1: look at his first read and get rid of the ball,

479
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 1: and even doing that, Aiden Hutchinson nearly got to him

480
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 1: about fifteen times. For those of us who were on

481
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 1: Convince Me and if you watched Convince Me, our pregame

482
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: show on Sunday mornings in the Action Happen on YouTube.

483
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 1: We hit our same game parlay for that because we

484
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:56,479
Speaker 1: had the Lions minus four and a half, we had

485
00:24:56,520 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 1: the under and we had Aiden Hutchinson over point seventy

486
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 1: five sacks, So we had to wait until the second

487
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 1: or last play of the game and then an overtime

488
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: dominant drive to cover both of those bets and cover

489
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 1: the SGP. But the Lions proved in the overtime. Why

490
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 1: are we bet on them? They just forced their will

491
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 1: on the Rams and ran down the field. They're just good.

492
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 1: They're really good.

493
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 5: Every week is different and you don't know what it's

494
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 5: going to take. Do not, do not ever feel bad

495
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 5: about a win, man, They're too hard to come by.

496
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 5: You earn that win, no matter what you say. You

497
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 5: earn that win, and we will accept it.

498
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 3: I know, I'm so torn on this game because it's

499
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,880
Speaker 3: like I wanted to do the Lions and now it's

500
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 3: up to seven, and it's like they put it all

501
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 3: the way up there just so that I'd have to

502
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 3: question this where it's like I did like the value

503
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 3: on them, because let's face the Bucks, they might have

504
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 3: just played the worst defense on football. The Commanders they

505
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:55,640
Speaker 3: might be atrocious on defense. We talked that head into

506
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 3: the season. They just they kind of sold it all,

507
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,880
Speaker 3: got rid of everybody. You expect it to be like this,

508
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 3: but yeah, Yeah, this is tough, brother, this is this

509
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 3: is up to seven now, it's like, you know, seven,

510
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 3: seven and a half, I kind of want to be

511
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 3: on the Bucks there. It's like I just I still

512
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 3: see the Lions having some issues that can be taken

513
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 3: advantage of by this Bucks team. And even in the

514
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 3: playoffs last year, right like if if Baker had played well,

515
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 3: this is a totally different game, right Like this is

516
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 3: they they could have upset them, like they did have

517
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 3: some some things that we're working for them. So this

518
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 3: Detroit team, like we talked about, I think they're much

519
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 3: better than they were last year. So I'm gonna give

520
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 3: them the benefit of doubt here and I'll take this

521
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:40,880
Speaker 3: if it gets down to six and a half again

522
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,640
Speaker 3: on the Lions. But seven I'd pass on that.

523
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say it feels like a pass overall.

524
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 1: Like I don't trust the Bucks.

525
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 2: No.

526
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:55,200
Speaker 1: I feel like against the Commanders they're going to get

527
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 1: too much credit. They're not a good team yet. And

528
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 1: this Lions team and Dan Campbell best coach against spread

529
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 1: the past five years, Jared Goff twenty six and nine

530
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 1: indoors against the spread the past three years. I think

531
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 1: like it's just they're really really good. Yeah, really good.

532
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 1: Line's average five point three years per carry.

533
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 2: All of it too.

534
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 3: It's just like we said, they can beat you in

535
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 3: so many different ways offensively, and we just, you know,

536
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 3: we saw what our hope was when we're like, okay,

537
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 3: we think this is one of the three best teams

538
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:39,959
Speaker 3: in NFC. I know, I said I might have them

539
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 3: even ranked the number one.

540
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 2: At one point.

541
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:44,920
Speaker 3: Jamis and Williams seen him take that next step for them.

542
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 3: That was probably the most exciting part of that game

543
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 3: to me. It's like, Okay, not only do they have

544
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:52,199
Speaker 3: maybe a shutdown corner, their number two receiver might be

545
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 3: the guy they drafted, you know, whenever he was a

546
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 3: top twelve, top thirteen pick. Yeah, you got to be

547
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 3: feeling pretty damn good if you're Detroit Lions fan.

548
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 1: Oh yeah. I mentioned at the top of the show

549
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,160
Speaker 1: that we are coming to you live from our Tommy

550
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,679
Speaker 1: John Home studios. That is because the good people of

551
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 1: Tommy John are the show's newest sponsor. If you haven't

552
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:16,719
Speaker 1: heard me glow about Tommy John, let me just say this.

553
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 1: Sunday was an excruciating day in which my bets included

554
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 1: sweating the Detroit Lions to cover in overtime, the Aiden

555
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 1: Hutchinson sack and the Colts miracle backdoor cover against the Texans.

556
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 1: I was comfortable the whole day, the whole day, never

557
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 1: lost my cool because I was wearing my Tommy John underwear.

558
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 1: It is like a second skin, Simon. It makes me

559
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 1: feel so better on Sundays, I'm so much less stressed

560
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 1: because I'm wearing my Tommy John's. I'm just staying cool

561
00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: only because of how comfortable and confident we feel in

562
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: Tommy John underwear. We were able to nail our big

563
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 1: balls better the week that Lions game, and Tommy John

564
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 1: I can do everything, including betting even better. If you

565
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 1: like Simon and I and you like this show, you

566
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:25,440
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568
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569
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: New York Tennessee Titans. Help me not overreact to what

570
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 1: we saw, which was Will Levis being confused making rookie

571
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 1: mistakes that cost his team the game. Evan gave us

572
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: that great stat about the Titans collapse on the Sunday

573
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: Night Show. They led the Bear seventeen nothing and lost

574
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 1: twenty four to seventeen. They failed to cover the spread

575
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 1: dogs of four plus points to lead by seven. Team

576
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 1: at any point in the game were sixty six one

577
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 1: and one against the spread since two thousand and nineteen.

578
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 1: What are we doing here?

579
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 2: Yeah?

580
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 3: I wanted to go Jets, you know, to me, this

581
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 3: is me one of our chalkier picks, because I was like,

582
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 3: you know what, the Jets will covered last night and

583
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 3: then this number will probably get down or I mean

584
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 3: I should say go up to minus six. Didn't work

585
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 3: that way, right, I think there are still some major

586
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 3: questions about this Jets defense, still some questions about what

587
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 3: their identity is going to be on offense. So I

588
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,239
Speaker 3: get the public being a little weary of this game, right.

589
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 3: This numbers moved to three and a half now to

590
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 3: a couple of books. You know, professionals are just guys

591
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 3: taking this number here with Tennessee because I just I

592
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 3: can't see who publicly.

593
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 2: Is betting Tennessee, right, I think, you know.

594
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 3: They were one of the more public dogs of the

595
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 3: week last week, and everyone got burned, Like everyone got burned.

596
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 3: So Tennessee was definitely gonna be a team that was like, Okay,

597
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 3: me and Chat will probably have to bet this next week. Now,

598
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 3: I'm not feeling as forced into it because I think

599
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 3: you have the same hesitation as I do. What confidence

600
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 3: do we have? And Will levis I just I have none.

601
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 3: I just if it's third and five, I'm just I'm terrified,

602
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 3: And especially when it's him thrown against Sauce and like

603
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 3: these other guys they got it's it's not good. So

604
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 3: I'm trying to view this of the Jets just ran

605
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 3: into maybe the best team in the NFC. Rogers, to me,

606
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 3: he looked like his old self. I don't know you

607
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 3: thought about a Chad, but like seeing a couple of

608
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 3: his throws, I mean it's just like, Wow, this guy's

609
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 3: arm talent is just out of this world, and you

610
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 3: kind of forget that sometimes.

611
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 1: So oh my god, there was that laser, not the

612
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 1: deep ball, but along the sideline. Oh my god.

613
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 2: That Yeah.

614
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 3: So that's where I'm mad at with it, where it's

615
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 3: like you're gonna give me three and a half, I'll

616
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 3: go with the public. I'll take the Jets here, But

617
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 3: I don't know if this will be one of our five.

618
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 3: I don't know if this is one of our favorites,

619
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 3: but it could be come Thursday, because right now I

620
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 3: have bet at minus three and a half. But I'm

621
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 3: just trying not to overreact too much to what happened

622
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 3: to this Jets team against the forty nine ers, and

623
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 3: I feel like I'm properly reacting with Will Levis against

624
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 3: that Bears defense, where it's like, if you have a

625
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 3: good secondary, I think that's gonna be this Tennessee's teams kryptonite,

626
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 3: where they're good at running the ball and everything like that,

627
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 3: but when it comes time to pass it, he just

628
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 3: he's not gonna be that guy for you. So I

629
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 3: think the Bears have a really good secondary. I think

630
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 3: the Jets have even better of a secondary. So I'm

631
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 3: I'm gonna back the Jets.

632
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 2: In the spot.

633
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, the trends are all over back in the Titans.

634
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 1: Everything I mentioned at the top of the show, they

635
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: all back the Titans. And then I'll give you a

636
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 1: couple others here from Evan. Teams that open as four

637
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 1: or higher at home in weeks one and two fifty

638
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 1: eight percent against the spread the past twenty years. Teams

639
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 1: that open at four or higher at home after losing

640
00:32:57,120 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 1: their previous game sixty four percent since twenty twenty and

641
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: this this is one that we usually love. Teams to

642
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 1: blow a ten point lead in week one, the next

643
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 1: week in week two, twenty eight, seventeen and one against

644
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 1: the spread since nineteen ninety That includes the Cardinals, the Jags,

645
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 1: and the Titans.

646
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 2: Interesting, I know, interesting.

647
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:32,719
Speaker 1: I know, But it's like, why are we making We

648
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 1: say all the time like we don't want to overreact,

649
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 1: and I know you just said you're trying not to,

650
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 1: but I have we just decided Will Levis is so

651
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 1: bad that he breaks the trend? Right? Is that is

652
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 1: that where we're at?

653
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 3: Well, like you say all the time, Chad, there's a

654
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 3: couple on the other side of those trends, there's winners, right,

655
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 3: So it's like they don't always win.

656
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 2: I think we'll love us as part of that other

657
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 2: side of that trend. So interesting.

658
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 3: Tik though, on the game other games you mentioned, because

659
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 3: I do obviously reviewing those games that that could help

660
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 3: skew me towards the side I want to go to

661
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 3: with those those games.

662
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 2: We're about to talk to you. You're gambler who bets

663
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,320
Speaker 2: on the Jets. Have you not learned anything about betting?

664
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 1: The Jets are gonna come back, gonna Seattle in New England.

665
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 1: New England is a three point underdog at home right now.

666
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 1: So with this, this hits the trends. But I don't

667
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 1: like it. Ed ain't no go ahead.

668
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say. I just saw Brandon Anderson.

669
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 3: He was telling me one of his early bets, I

670
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:30,320
Speaker 3: believe with Seattle.

671
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 1: Which I'm about to say that.

672
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair. I said to me, that's

673
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 2: a fair bet.

674
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 3: But it's like, man, is that offensive line terrible for Seattle?

675
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,760
Speaker 3: Like they're so bad it makes me a little scary

676
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,399
Speaker 3: to bet them because most books are showing minus three

677
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 3: and a half.

678
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's that's crazy.

679
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 3: People are taking Seattle at minus three and a half

680
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 3: on the road in this spot.

681
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 1: But Evan and Brandon Anderson and Brendan Glasheen, who's the

682
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 1: show the Action Network podcast Sunday Night wrap up show.

683
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 1: One of my favorite segments that we do is Brandon's

684
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:11,680
Speaker 1: very early lines breakdown. He's always got a nugget we

685
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 1: may have missed right, and you and I did not

686
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 1: talk about the Seahawks in early betting. On Sunday night

687
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 1: on our show, he was saying, you got to get

688
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: it before it gets to three and a half. It

689
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 1: was already getting into three and a half Monday morning,

690
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 1: came back down, it's gone back up, so we know

691
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 1: that like Wise guys are hitting that three. It's not

692
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 1: the public betting Seattle early in the week, and I

693
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 1: think some of this is sort of carryover from the

694
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 1: week before. I think the Wise guys love Mike McDonald's defense.

695
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 1: They love what he is going to be able to

696
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,839
Speaker 1: do with that team. They only allow three point three

697
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 1: yards per play, even though it was against a rookie quarterback.

698
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 1: But the truth is the Pat's O line is actually

699
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 1: worse than Denvers. So I can see why there is

700
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 1: sentiment to play New England or to play Seattle in

701
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:00,320
Speaker 1: this spot.

702
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, to me, the three you take. If you can

703
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 3: get the three for Seattle, you take it. I just

704
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 3: the three and a half. I feel like that's where

705
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 3: we're having contest. That's gonna be hard to do. But

706
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 3: New England's bad. Like even when I went back and

707
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 3: watched the tape, it's like it really was just Cincinnati shooting.

708
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 2: Themselves in the foot. Constant.

709
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, Stevenson, he might being more underrated

710
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 3: running backs and all football for this Patriots team.

711
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 2: I think it was like one.

712
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,359
Speaker 3: Hundred and nineteen yards of his was after contact, Like

713
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 3: this guy is getting hit in the backfield and still

714
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 3: turning out three and four yards at a chunk.

715
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 2: So yeah, I wish it was lower. Check is two

716
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 2: and a half.

717
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,280
Speaker 3: This is a no brainer. Seattle minus two and a half.

718
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 3: I would have loved that. But that's my pause where

719
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:45,359
Speaker 3: I'm trying to play this in the contest. It's like,

720
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 3: I don't want to put this in a minus three

721
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 3: and a half. This just feels like this game is

722
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 3: gonna land on three right. It just that's just how

723
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 3: I see it going where. Yeah, on paper, Seattle is

724
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 3: way better, like even we even talk about their offense

725
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 3: weapons here, like Kenneth Walker. I know this sounds crazy,

726
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 3: you say compared to Cincinnati, but I'd much rather have

727
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 3: Kenneth Walker than anything Cincinnati is running out there.

728
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 2: DK Metcalf.

729
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,399
Speaker 3: I know he doesn't get the praise that Chase gets

730
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 3: because Chase was a top five receiver taken. DK is

731
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 3: not that far off, and now you're bringing in the

732
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:22,240
Speaker 3: number two receiver Locket. We love Lockett, like he played

733
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 3: great in that game for them against Denver, Like whenever

734
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 3: you know, needed a big third down, he went to

735
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 3: Locket a lot. So yeah, I like it like I

736
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 3: like it at minus three. Chat, It's just we're talking

737
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 3: contests here.

738
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 2: I know.

739
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 3: I know these son of the bitches that do our contest.

740
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:39,480
Speaker 3: They're not gonna give us the two and a half.

741
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 3: They're gonna give us the minus three and a half.

742
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:45,399
Speaker 3: So that that is tough, knowing that it's just it's

743
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:46,320
Speaker 3: just a bad number.

744
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 2: But yeah, grab grab the three.

745
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 3: Now.

746
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:49,719
Speaker 2: If you want to be on the chalky side and

747
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:51,359
Speaker 2: take Seattle, don't forget.

748
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 1: You can still sign up for the contest, win some

749
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 1: money every single week. Plus you get to drop your

750
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 1: worst score after the first five weeks, so you still

751
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 1: got a shot. Favorite dot actionnetwork dot com.

752
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 4: They are a mature, physically powerful squad with a special

753
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 4: confidence that allows them to reach for heroism instead of

754
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:13,319
Speaker 4: merely trying to avoid mistakes.

755
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 1: San Francisco at Minnesota. Minnesota is a six point dog.

756
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 1: This one moved a point off of the Niners win

757
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 1: on Monday Night Football, and it's not hard to see

758
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 1: why they had zero problems moving the ball against what

759
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 1: is supposed to be the top ranked d line in

760
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:42,240
Speaker 1: the league. What's interesting to me last week against the Giants,

761
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 1: Brian Flores, who's known for bringing pressure, did not really

762
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 1: bring pressure very often and they still dominated Daniel Jones,

763
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 1: because you know, it's the Giants or whatever. But if

764
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: they do that this week, I don't know that it

765
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,760
Speaker 1: would impact Rock Party all that much because Brock Party

766
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: last year one of only six qbs to allow fewer

767
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 1: than fifteen percent of their pressured dropbacks to become sacks.

768
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 1: He's just nifty, He's nifty in the pocket. He's very crafty, Simon.

769
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: So I don't want to bet this game.

770
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like I like the forty nine ers.

771
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 3: I think it's still public perception here of like a

772
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:25,959
Speaker 3: little bit of questioning this forty nine ers team.

773
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:27,760
Speaker 2: I can't believe this isn't seven.

774
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 3: So me and Chatt when we did our show Sunday night,

775
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 3: they were minus five just because the Vikings had played

776
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,360
Speaker 3: so well and people are still a little unsure this

777
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 3: forty ures team. Terrifying that this only moved to point

778
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 3: Chad like this. This feels a lot like the colch

779
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 3: Houston game where the books are taking that position here

780
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 3: and they know this will be in every money line teaser,

781
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 3: like everyone's gonna throw this game in because they're just

782
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 3: like me. And you're right that the forty nine Ers

783
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 3: were the best team in football or number two behind

784
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 3: the Chiefs.

785
00:39:57,600 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 2: It's like nothing changed.

786
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 3: They came out and what were they dominant at. They

787
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,799
Speaker 3: were dominant running the ball, and they were dominant at

788
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 3: the linebacker position. I mean, it's incredible if eyone wer

789
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 3: just changes the whole game, right like that strip sack

790
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 3: in the very beginning of the game, I go, yeah,

791
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 3: that's the best linebacker in football.

792
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 2: Not shocking.

793
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 3: Oh, they have some undrafted free agent running the ball

794
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 3: for them, and he's runs for one hundred and forty

795
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 3: yards and a touchdown for the forty nine Ers.

796
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:22,880
Speaker 2: Not that shocking.

797
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,880
Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan is calling one of the best run blocking

798
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 3: schemes in all of football. We all know this, So yeah,

799
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:34,360
Speaker 3: crazy number here. I'll take the six for now. Maybe wow,

800
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 3: just because I think I'll keep going up. But yeah,

801
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 3: this is a this is an interesting game here, Chad,

802
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 3: where it's like I still think they're a little bit

803
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 3: undervalue in this forty nine ers team.

804
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:49,839
Speaker 1: I don't think we really have so far. We don't

805
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 1: have many games that we are dying to take in

806
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 1: this contest right now. I've got four games listed that

807
00:40:56,160 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 1: were kind of looking at, but we have not planted

808
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:04,879
Speaker 1: a flag in the sand on any game at this point.

809
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 1: I just want you to know that, Yeah, And.

810
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 3: I definitely think it's because of all these high six lines.

811
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 3: We have a lot of six six and a half's

812
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 3: right now. So it's making me a little uneasy here

813
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 3: because it's like I immediately want to take the dogs,

814
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 3: right I think I even't had a great stat last week.

815
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 3: I think every dog that was six points are more covered,

816
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 3: and so it's like I'm trying not to do what

817
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 3: I did last week of just taking all dogs again

818
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 3: because it seems like the favorites have been good to

819
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 3: these Joe public bets. So I'm trying not to let

820
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 3: the public money scare me off, just because again, me

821
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 3: and you a year ago, we would have been all

822
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 3: over this Vikings in this spot, like this feels like

823
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 3: the exact game we like to play. But it's just like,

824
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 3: you know, these have not been cashing for me and

825
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 3: Chad like they used to, So I'm trying to adjust

826
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 3: to that.

827
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, we got to be smart, got to look at

828
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:51,319
Speaker 1: the market as it is, not as we want it

829
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 1: to be. Hey man, I thought that was pretty good.

830
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: It was right there Indianapolis at Green Bay. So look,

831
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 1: this game was two and a half on night. We

832
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 1: knew that we had a feeling Jordan Love wouldn't be playing.

833
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:09,439
Speaker 1: We had seen the injury on Friday. You said, bet

834
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 1: the Cults to two and a half. If you were

835
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:13,319
Speaker 1: smart enough to get the Cult to two and a half,

836
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 1: good for you. It is now at three and a half.

837
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 1: Malik Willis will be the starter. This one scares me

838
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 1: as it gets higher because all of these trends are

839
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 1: in play, and this is exactly when the public is

840
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 1: going to jump off the Packers bandwagon. But you know,

841
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 1: the backups coming into games as dogs in their first

842
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:40,840
Speaker 1: start the past three seasons fifty five percent against the spread.

843
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 1: So it's not crazy for a backup to come in

844
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 1: and perform better than the public expects them to perform.

845
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 1: And it's not like the Cults are super Bowl team

846
00:42:53,320 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 1: right now. It's ANTHONYA. Richardson's nineteenth start since college, right

847
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 1: and now he's going to Green Bay. They're not going

848
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 1: to roll over. Like they still have a good defense,

849
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 1: Like there's still going to be a team that tries

850
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 1: to confuse a young quarterback. They're just not going to

851
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 1: be as effective with Malik Willis, at least we don't

852
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 1: think they will be. But no one's ever seen the

853
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 1: guy play.

854
00:43:16,760 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we last week of the Colts, we played

855
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 3: the number and we got lucky, Like the guy was

856
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 3: nine for nineteen, right, and so lucky a couple of

857
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 3: those completions. It's like, like we said, him missing a

858
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 3: guy wide opening the end zone and throwing a pick,

859
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 3: You just you don't come back from that, especially a

860
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:35,320
Speaker 3: guy like him who's only made four or five starts

861
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 3: in the NFL. So you wanna play roulette again, Chad,

862
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 3: that's what you're kind of doing here, trying to take this.

863
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:45,359
Speaker 2: I don't know.

864
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 3: It's I felt good about the Colts when we got

865
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 3: two and a half in three. Now that it's up

866
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 3: to three and a half and maybe going to four,

867
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 3: it's like this is usually where me and you like

868
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 3: to back the floor in these kind of spots, Like he's, yeah.

869
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 1: This is a no brainer to me to back the floor,

870
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 1: even though it's Phillips. Yeah, like like to me, I

871
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:05,360
Speaker 1: just added green Bay A plus three and a half

872
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 1: to our list of games to review on Thursday, because

873
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:13,360
Speaker 1: I feel like la Floor early season is also a

874
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 1: brilliant coach against right, we got a lot of numbers

875
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 1: to back it up. So it's hard not to think

876
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 1: about backing Green Bay in this point. Matt Mitchell, Man,

877
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 1: Mitchell here going, it's distracting me right now, Matt Mitchell

878
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 1: like he is losing his mind that we were talking

879
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:34,760
Speaker 1: about back in the league. Willison wown.

880
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,879
Speaker 2: I gotta say, I'm a little ashamed of you. How

881
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 2: much is enough?

882
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 1: But look like it's it's like I'm backing the number

883
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 1: at this point.

884
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 2: Back That's what I feel about it. I'm a little nauseous. Yeah,

885
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 2: it's outrageous. It's like I trust Lafloor.

886
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 3: If this kid can't complete it two yards, Lafloor is

887
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 3: going to know that and they will run some type

888
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 3: of spread off. He's just another running back. Like it's

889
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 3: going to be ugly. It's going to be I mean,

890
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 3: trust me, Matte. No one here wants to make this bet.

891
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 3: We're doing this because we have to. Like Chad, you said,

892
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 3: we're playing the numbers here and the trends, so I

893
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 3: feel like they're all gonna point to see I'm like,

894
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:14,359
Speaker 3: we have another game coming up that's even grosser that.

895
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 2: I mean.

896
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 3: I know Evan's gonna have some amazing trends on that

897
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 3: just backs this team, and it's like eating me.

898
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 2: That we have to bet them.

899
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 3: But this is another team that's like, I hate that

900
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 3: we have to do it, and I know our fans hate.

901
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 2: But this is what makes this show so great.

902
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 3: This is why we always have a winning record, is

903
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:32,759
Speaker 3: we do bet these ugly dogs on long term, they

904
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 3: pay out for us. So yeah, three and a half,

905
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 3: I'll take Green Bay, But the hope is this gets

906
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 3: the four.

907
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:42,880
Speaker 1: I mean, here's the problem right now. The games that

908
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 1: we've shown the most passion for Raiders at nine and

909
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 1: a half and the Packers at three and a half.

910
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:54,759
Speaker 1: I mean, come on, oh my god, we are just

911
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 1: thank god I got those times.

912
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 3: You have some favorites done. You just hate betting favorites.

913
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 3: I'm I'm trying to give you favorite. You just hate

914
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 3: betting favorites.

915
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:03,320
Speaker 1: I hate betting favorite. Look, I want to bet the

916
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 1: favorites too. I actually do want to bet.

917
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:06,360
Speaker 2: The county to the trends.

918
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:08,239
Speaker 1: You know, I think the Cowboys are going to blow

919
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 1: the Saints out. I don't think it's going to be

920
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:11,879
Speaker 1: even close. So okay, I think I think we'll get

921
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 1: there with them. But Jesus, I cannot believe we were

922
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 1: taking the Packers seriously right now.

923
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:28,560
Speaker 5: So go on side in it's raining bull shit.

924
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:34,719
Speaker 1: Not I do think. I do think it will be

925
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 1: proven out. We still owe assignment says, we still owe

926
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:41,800
Speaker 1: an exact decision. We'll probably do Foxhole like on Thursday,

927
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,439
Speaker 1: as we do Big Best. Yeah, I saw New York

928
00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 1: Giants at Washington Commanders two and a half. Look, I

929
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:51,279
Speaker 1: saw a lot of bets this week piloting into the

930
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 1: action app for Jaydon Daniels at Offensive Rookie of the

931
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 1: Year plus five hundred. Overall home favorites in the division

932
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:03,759
Speaker 1: are five hundred against the spread or worse in six

933
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 1: straight seasons. So not a trend where you wouln't necessarily

934
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 1: want to back the Commanders. Home division favorites four points

935
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 1: or less forty five percent against the spread weeks in

936
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:21,240
Speaker 1: the past twenty years weeks one to three forty forty

937
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 1: one percent against the spread, so I'm not betting the Giants.

938
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:29,880
Speaker 2: That's to the pros are on.

939
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:31,840
Speaker 3: It's already down at one and a half in almost

940
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:34,240
Speaker 3: every book, So well.

941
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 1: Then we're definitely not betting the Giants because we're not

942
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:36,800
Speaker 1: even getting the best of the number.

943
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 3: Dan, I just don't want to fucking do it. I'm

944
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:41,280
Speaker 3: sick of it like that. That just left the worst

945
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 3: taste you can possibly in my mouth. I don't really

946
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 3: have a read on either team here. It's like, Okay,

947
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:51,360
Speaker 3: the biggest weakness in this game is the Commander's defense.

948
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:54,319
Speaker 3: Do we really believe Daniel Jones in this offense can

949
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 3: take advantage of that. No, but they're going to They're

950
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 3: gonna find a way. Like they're not going to play

951
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 3: as bad as they were last week. I guarantee you

952
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:03,760
Speaker 3: that they're gonna have more than six points. The question

953
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:08,360
Speaker 3: is can they outscore this Commander's offense that does seem

954
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 3: to have somewhat of an identity. They have a rookie

955
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 3: quarterback that can panic and pull the ball down and

956
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 3: he can run for days.

957
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 2: And you know, we talked about it before the season started.

958
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 3: I just I said, I can't see this kid, Daniels

959
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:23,239
Speaker 3: last in the season I stand by it, like he

960
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,240
Speaker 3: just feels a little bit of pressure on him. He's off,

961
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 3: he's doing one or two reads and he's off, and

962
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:31,239
Speaker 3: he doesn't slide either. He goes for the contact. Like

963
00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:35,759
Speaker 3: this kid, he's gonna learn the hard way. So yeah,

964
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 3: the the pro pro money's gonna come in the Giants.

965
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 2: So not shocked that this number has moved down here.

966
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 3: I'm with Chat. This left such a bad daste in

967
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 3: my mouth. I don't want to bet either team in

968
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:47,439
Speaker 3: this one.

969
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:53,359
Speaker 1: Jacksonville and Cleveland here, I think it's a really interesting game,

970
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 1: Cleveland at Jacksonville. Look, we had another lawsuit file against

971
00:48:57,160 --> 00:49:01,440
Speaker 1: Deshaan Watson. There are questions about wherehether or not he

972
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 1: is cooked or should even be starting at this point.

973
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 1: He genuinely looks like he doesn't know what is what

974
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 1: he was doing out there. I think the only person

975
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: coming out of the Dallas game with more criticism is

976
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:16,960
Speaker 1: Tom Brady. But I'm bump, you're that at you right,

977
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 1: It's true, But look the Jags like they withered, They

978
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 1: completely withered in the heat against the Dolphins. Like Doug

979
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:30,839
Speaker 1: Peterson lost his ever loving mind. He went for it

980
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 1: on fourth down deep in his own territory in a

981
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 1: close game. What was he thinking, like to just give

982
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 1: up field position like that. It didn't really matter because

983
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 1: the Dolphins ended up missing a field goal. But like,

984
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 1: to me, that was the mindset we got Trevor Lawrence.

985
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 1: And like in the first half he looked like he

986
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 1: was on pace to throw, pace to throw for thrive

987
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:54,160
Speaker 1: five hundred yards, ended the game with less than two hundred.

988
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:55,759
Speaker 1: Like they couldn't operate in the second half.

989
00:49:57,239 --> 00:50:00,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's also rare in life for like, you know,

990
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 3: bad people sometimes get away with it in life, right,

991
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:05,799
Speaker 3: they can go through life, they can succeed, they have

992
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 3: a good life. It seems like all this horrible karma

993
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:13,600
Speaker 3: is finally coming back on Watson, which is just I

994
00:50:13,640 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 3: love it. He just seems like everything you read about him,

995
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 3: he just seems like truly a horrible, horrible person. And

996
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 3: even the last one I just read about it, it's like,

997
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:25,920
Speaker 3: oh my god, this guy's so horrible, so uh looking

998
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 3: out that we're supposed to me and Chad be on

999
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:32,440
Speaker 3: Cleveland here like this is this is the bet me

1000
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 3: and Chad always make the last six years and even

1001
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 3: the trends.

1002
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:37,759
Speaker 2: I couldn't believe.

1003
00:50:37,800 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 3: I was looking through our data and pulling up trends

1004
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:43,200
Speaker 3: and trying to see, like, okay, all the trends also

1005
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:47,960
Speaker 3: point too this Cleveland team here. But then I went

1006
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 3: back to what me and Chad talk about all the time,

1007
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:53,279
Speaker 3: which is up front, right, the guy's up front. And

1008
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:56,800
Speaker 3: you know, before the Jaguars blew that game to Miami,

1009
00:50:57,520 --> 00:51:00,279
Speaker 3: their front four was getting an incredible amount of pressure

1010
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 3: on Tua.

1011
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:03,399
Speaker 2: Yes, what will be different there?

1012
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:06,280
Speaker 3: And then for this game, they're going against even worse

1013
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 3: offensive line here, Like you know, I you know Joshua Allen,

1014
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 3: say what you want about the kid.

1015
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:15,600
Speaker 2: He was incredible last game.

1016
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:17,520
Speaker 3: Even the you know, they have a couple guys up

1017
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 3: front they can get pressure for this Jags team. So

1018
00:51:20,040 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 3: I'm having a tough time because this is up to

1019
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:23,239
Speaker 3: minus three and a half chat. But there are a

1020
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:25,279
Speaker 3: couple of books out there that have the minus three

1021
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 3: because the pro money is going to come in on

1022
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:29,759
Speaker 3: this Cleveland team. Like I said, there's a lot of

1023
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 3: benefits to betting Cleveland team if you like just betting trends.

1024
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:37,759
Speaker 2: The human part of me, I can't get over there.

1025
00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:40,680
Speaker 2: I just think this Jaguars seems the better team, and

1026
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:42,840
Speaker 2: I do have questions like you talked about you and

1027
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:43,440
Speaker 2: you nailed it.

1028
00:51:43,520 --> 00:51:47,120
Speaker 3: Like Callahan leaving this that Browns organization and going down

1029
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 3: to Tennessee and leaving that offensive line that was such

1030
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:53,239
Speaker 3: a huge deal. And now yeah, they got two or

1031
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 3: three backups coming into the offensive line, which to me,

1032
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:57,520
Speaker 3: he would have helped, right, he would have coached them

1033
00:51:57,600 --> 00:51:59,680
Speaker 3: up to make it work for a game or two.

1034
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 2: They don't have that luxury.

1035
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:04,640
Speaker 3: So I think the line's right, Like I think the

1036
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 3: Jaguars should be mine three and a half. So again,

1037
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 3: another chalky pick by me. But it's like, I just

1038
00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 3: can't get there with this this Cleveland team.

1039
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:14,319
Speaker 2: So I'm hoping Evan's.

1040
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:17,879
Speaker 3: Gonna put out his trends article maybe he can try

1041
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 3: to get me on the other side. But right now

1042
00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:21,040
Speaker 3: I'm pretty dug in on the Jaguars.

1043
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson had one hundred and sixty nine passing yards

1044
00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:29,920
Speaker 1: on forty five attempts. No quarterback has ever had fewer

1045
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:32,640
Speaker 1: than two hundred yards on forty five attempts in a

1046
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 1: week one, and it has only been done twice in

1047
00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:38,080
Speaker 1: the regular season since two thousand.

1048
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:40,879
Speaker 2: I mean, it doesn't even sound real.

1049
00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:47,040
Speaker 1: Forty five attempts one hundred and sixty nine yards. That's insanity,

1050
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 1: it really is. But what I'm getting is you you

1051
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:53,640
Speaker 1: said this game is lined right, but you're also on

1052
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. So does that mean you're finding an edge

1053
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 1: in the Jaguars or because you said you're betting it?

1054
00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:02,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, because I had this four so to me minus three, Like,

1055
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:04,439
Speaker 3: I like the value there. I told you my fear

1056
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:06,839
Speaker 3: is I talked to a bunch of professionals and they

1057
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:08,279
Speaker 3: are giving me all the reasons why they're back in

1058
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:10,799
Speaker 3: Cleveland here and apparently a bunch of trends point to it.

1059
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:12,839
Speaker 2: And I found a couple of trends they did.

1060
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 3: But I'm hoping again Evan has an article about what

1061
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 3: these trends are, because it's just like, I don't really

1062
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:19,719
Speaker 3: see their reasoning for it.

1063
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:20,440
Speaker 2: Like they're.

1064
00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:24,960
Speaker 3: Everyone with eyes watched Watson play that game. I know

1065
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 3: they the same people say, well, what about the Jaguars?

1066
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:31,239
Speaker 3: And Trevor Lawrence has been incredibly disappointing. They're not even

1067
00:53:31,239 --> 00:53:34,360
Speaker 3: on the same planet, the disappointment between him and Watson,

1068
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:37,400
Speaker 3: Like we can attribute a lot of what failed Trevor

1069
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:39,759
Speaker 3: Lawrence up to Doug Peterson, right, and so I think

1070
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 3: there's stuff there you could correct. Stefanski's putting Watson in

1071
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:45,719
Speaker 3: the best position he could possibly put this guy in.

1072
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:49,040
Speaker 3: He's getting the entire offense to him and it's not working.

1073
00:53:49,160 --> 00:53:52,160
Speaker 3: So that's that's my big takeaway from this one.

1074
00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:55,160
Speaker 1: Feel bad for Stefanski. I think he's a brilliant coach

1075
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 1: and he has just been saddled with an albatross of

1076
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:00,799
Speaker 1: a quarterback and a contract that they can not get

1077
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:01,040
Speaker 1: out of.

1078
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:03,640
Speaker 3: I think he had an opinion though, and he had

1079
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:04,560
Speaker 3: an opinion on Baker.

1080
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 2: I think he was part of it. So don't feel

1081
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:07,040
Speaker 2: too bad for him.

1082
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:08,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right. He doesn't feel bad for me if

1083
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:10,799
Speaker 1: things don't go right, like if I go to if

1084
00:54:10,840 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 1: I go to and during in the contest, it's not

1085
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:14,319
Speaker 1: like he's sitting there saying, you know what, I feel

1086
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:16,520
Speaker 1: bad for Chad, Like they did good work, they made

1087
00:54:16,560 --> 00:54:16,919
Speaker 1: the right.

1088
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 2: Thing, Dallas against me.

1089
00:54:18,880 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 1: You know he's not that Uh, don't forget sign up

1090
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:25,600
Speaker 1: for the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

1091
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 1: Pick Him Contest presented by bet three six five. If

1092
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:31,319
Speaker 1: you forgot to sign up, you still got time. We

1093
00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:34,239
Speaker 1: drop everyone's worst score after Week five, one hundred K

1094
00:54:34,280 --> 00:54:36,839
Speaker 1: and cash prize is still up for grabs. Sign up

1095
00:54:36,880 --> 00:54:40,920
Speaker 1: favorites dot Actionnetwork dot Com, one client at a time.

1096
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 2: First, Lads of takes.

1097
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:47,400
Speaker 1: All Right, really interesting game. Rams at Arizona Cardinals. Arizona

1098
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:49,879
Speaker 1: is a one and a half point favorite. They open

1099
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 1: is a two and a half point underdog. Teams to

1100
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 1: open as the underdog and close as the favorite forty

1101
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 1: two percent against the spreads two thousand and eighteen one

1102
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 1: in one so far this year, Vikings and Browns in

1103
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:12,440
Speaker 1: Week one. Look, I thought the Rams were outperformed. I

1104
00:55:12,480 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 1: thought the Rams outperformed the Lions, especially in the second half.

1105
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:18,160
Speaker 1: Like I said, Stafford knew he was going to get

1106
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:20,440
Speaker 1: rocked if he didn't get rid of the ball, and

1107
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:24,200
Speaker 1: he did that brilliantly. They really lost just because at

1108
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:27,680
Speaker 1: the end of the day, the Lions are a better team.

1109
00:55:28,320 --> 00:55:31,439
Speaker 1: Arizona came out hot and then did what Arizona always dogs.

1110
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:33,960
Speaker 1: It made the mistakes. I don't think their defense is

1111
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:37,360
Speaker 1: good enough, and I think there's enough on film for

1112
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:40,279
Speaker 1: the Rams to figure out, Okay, here's what we can

1113
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:44,520
Speaker 1: do against the Cardinals. And I was really impressed with

1114
00:55:44,600 --> 00:55:47,040
Speaker 1: the Rams defense in that game.

1115
00:55:49,760 --> 00:55:51,760
Speaker 2: Make this line a pick so IBOs.

1116
00:55:51,880 --> 00:55:54,440
Speaker 3: When it opened, I was like, okay, we'll be on

1117
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 3: the Cardinals here now, like you had just said, it's

1118
00:55:56,640 --> 00:55:57,360
Speaker 3: moved so much.

1119
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:01,720
Speaker 2: The Rams are probably the play here. But it's like, man,

1120
00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:04,719
Speaker 2: this this is a coin flip game.

1121
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 3: There really isn't that much value either side to me,

1122
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:09,719
Speaker 3: and I think you did nail a chat where it's

1123
00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 3: like both defenses are terrible, so whoever as the ball last,

1124
00:56:13,920 --> 00:56:16,520
Speaker 3: they win and cover this number, right, And that's yeah

1125
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 3: to us, that's impossible for us to know.

1126
00:56:20,080 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 2: You know, my.

1127
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:24,920
Speaker 3: Safe cowardly play here. It's the tease number. It's perfect.

1128
00:56:24,960 --> 00:56:26,719
Speaker 3: It's it's minus one and a half. It's plus one

1129
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:28,040
Speaker 3: and a half right now for the Rams, you can

1130
00:56:28,040 --> 00:56:29,800
Speaker 3: take it up to seven and a half.

1131
00:56:29,880 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 2: So do it.

1132
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 3: Take that Take that teaser right now, take it up

1133
00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 3: to seven and a half. Because Chad just nailed it.

1134
00:56:36,120 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 3: It's like, I don't know how professionals don't come in

1135
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:40,240
Speaker 3: on the Rams at this point.

1136
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:41,560
Speaker 2: How does that money.

1137
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:43,680
Speaker 3: Not come in on them as this week goes alonger

1138
00:56:43,719 --> 00:56:46,320
Speaker 3: Because you just said it, It's like, okay, the Rams

1139
00:56:46,320 --> 00:56:48,719
Speaker 3: big weakness right now, what's failing them is their all

1140
00:56:48,719 --> 00:56:50,280
Speaker 3: offensive line and all those injuries.

1141
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:53,760
Speaker 2: Who's taking advantage of that for this Arizona team.

1142
00:56:54,120 --> 00:56:54,880
Speaker 1: We just watched it.

1143
00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:56,839
Speaker 2: I mean, I know it's Josh Allen. It's like he's

1144
00:56:56,840 --> 00:56:57,880
Speaker 2: the ultimate cheat code.

1145
00:56:57,880 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 3: But they had no push up front, and especially that

1146
00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:03,879
Speaker 3: second half when they got tired, like their legs were

1147
00:57:03,920 --> 00:57:05,320
Speaker 3: just gone by the second half.

1148
00:57:05,360 --> 00:57:08,880
Speaker 2: So, yeah, Chad this maybe.

1149
00:57:08,640 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 3: On Thursday, I'll have a clear view on it. Right now,

1150
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:12,840
Speaker 3: but I hate when it's just these one one and

1151
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:14,560
Speaker 3: a half numbers where it's like, I don't really feel

1152
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 3: like I'm getting any value here. You know, maybe we'll

1153
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:18,920
Speaker 3: get it like the Colts, right maybe the bets will

1154
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:20,280
Speaker 3: come in on Arizona and we'll get it up to

1155
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:22,320
Speaker 3: two and a half, such a key number, and we'll

1156
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:24,919
Speaker 3: take the Rams there. But one and a half, I'm

1157
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:25,880
Speaker 3: just teasing this number.

1158
00:57:26,280 --> 00:57:31,360
Speaker 1: Look, I think Arizona is still a trendy public dog.

1159
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:36,080
Speaker 1: I think people love them against the Bills, and I

1160
00:57:36,120 --> 00:57:38,520
Speaker 1: think the way they performed against the Bills is going

1161
00:57:38,560 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 1: to have people more excited and more enthusiastic. I'm hopeful

1162
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 1: this number will move in our direction because I would

1163
00:57:46,040 --> 00:57:48,560
Speaker 1: I would like to take the Rams in the spot

1164
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 1: I'm not. I'm purposely not talking about tickets and money

1165
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:56,520
Speaker 1: percentages yet because it's still just too early, like there's.

1166
00:57:56,320 --> 00:57:58,640
Speaker 2: Nothing to Yeah, it's too early for that, you.

1167
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:00,440
Speaker 1: Know, So like I don't, I know people like it

1168
00:58:00,480 --> 00:58:04,000
Speaker 1: when I do that. I'm just there's not enough volume.

1169
00:58:04,360 --> 00:58:08,120
Speaker 3: Once once the public gets weed it out, like in

1170
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:10,920
Speaker 3: four or five weeks, then we can really do the

1171
00:58:10,920 --> 00:58:13,600
Speaker 3: Tuesday money because that's that's literally professional money.

1172
00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:14,480
Speaker 2: Well, they better read on it.

1173
00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:17,520
Speaker 3: Right now, it's still the next bag early in the season.

1174
00:58:17,600 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 3: Kind of everyone's like, you know, throwing the money around

1175
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:21,040
Speaker 3: early in the year.

1176
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:23,600
Speaker 1: Simon, we still owe a Simon says, we still own

1177
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:25,400
Speaker 1: exec decision. Oh, it's going up on a game.

1178
00:58:25,520 --> 00:58:27,320
Speaker 3: We're probably gonna play over the same game, aren't we.

1179
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:30,200
Speaker 1: No, No, I know, I know. How strong will you

1180
00:58:30,240 --> 00:58:33,920
Speaker 1: feel about one of the games coming up? I'm deferring

1181
00:58:33,920 --> 00:58:36,960
Speaker 1: to you Cincinnati and Kansas City. Kansas City is a

1182
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 1: six point favorite. You set it on Sunday night. You

1183
00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:42,320
Speaker 1: were all over it on Sunday night. It was at six,

1184
00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:45,840
Speaker 1: it moved down to five and a half. You liked

1185
00:58:45,840 --> 00:58:48,720
Speaker 1: the Bengals. You were on the side of the money

1186
00:58:48,720 --> 00:58:51,040
Speaker 1: moving the number back to six.

1187
00:58:52,120 --> 00:58:55,960
Speaker 3: Go ahead, yeah, And it's a funny thing where we

1188
00:58:56,000 --> 00:58:57,200
Speaker 3: talk on the show Sunday Night and I have a

1189
00:58:57,240 --> 00:58:58,680
Speaker 3: guy called me up and he's telling me all the

1190
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:01,280
Speaker 3: reasons why he likes the Chiefs, and I said, fuck you,

1191
00:59:01,280 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 3: then keep ben the Chiefs to get me a seven, Like,

1192
00:59:03,440 --> 00:59:04,560
Speaker 3: don't fucking tell me about it.

1193
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:06,360
Speaker 2: Put your money up so I can get a better number.

1194
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:07,120
Speaker 2: I get where.

1195
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:10,280
Speaker 3: Everyone's coming from this. It's like Joe Burrow Evan might

1196
00:59:10,320 --> 00:59:11,720
Speaker 3: have a stat on this. I don't think he's never

1197
00:59:11,800 --> 00:59:13,960
Speaker 3: won a Week two game, Chad, I could be wrong.

1198
00:59:14,680 --> 00:59:16,320
Speaker 1: Well, look I can tell you right now that Joe

1199
00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:20,760
Speaker 1: Burrow is now two and seven in weeks one and

1200
00:59:20,840 --> 00:59:25,120
Speaker 1: two against the spread. Yeah, he's terrible. Obviously lost and

1201
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:28,360
Speaker 1: didn't cover in week one, so keep going.

1202
00:59:29,560 --> 00:59:31,720
Speaker 3: So with all that said, Simon says, give me.

1203
00:59:31,680 --> 00:59:32,720
Speaker 1: The Simon say.

1204
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:39,640
Speaker 2: When we do what Sion say, I do think what

1205
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:41,560
Speaker 2: Chad just says. True though, I think this will go down.

1206
00:59:41,600 --> 00:59:44,280
Speaker 3: I just I see the professional money coming in, like

1207
00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:45,680
Speaker 3: we said us Sunda Night. When I got to six

1208
00:59:45,680 --> 00:59:48,440
Speaker 3: and a half, it's like, did did he really get

1209
00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:50,400
Speaker 3: three points worse than he was a week ago? I

1210
00:59:50,520 --> 00:59:53,080
Speaker 3: just I think that was the game from hell, everything

1211
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:56,200
Speaker 3: went wrong and maybe I am overlooking that DJ Reader

1212
00:59:56,320 --> 00:59:59,439
Speaker 3: left and you know he isn't right. His throwing wrist

1213
00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 3: isn't right, and you know T Higgins might miss another game.

1214
01:00:02,200 --> 01:00:04,600
Speaker 3: And they did lose Joe Mixon. Now they don't have

1215
01:00:04,600 --> 01:00:07,000
Speaker 3: a running game for Joe. Burt will fall back on

1216
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:10,240
Speaker 3: in We have overrated Joe Burrow just because he beat

1217
01:00:10,320 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 3: Mahomes at one time to make it to the super Bowl.

1218
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:15,240
Speaker 2: And it's like, Okay, I hear all this noise.

1219
01:00:16,040 --> 01:00:18,960
Speaker 3: I still got to trust the number. It's like Mahomes

1220
01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:23,320
Speaker 3: at this price point. He does not blow teams out.

1221
01:00:23,360 --> 01:00:26,160
Speaker 3: We always talk about this. It's like, Okay, put him

1222
01:00:26,160 --> 01:00:28,680
Speaker 3: in your teaser. He's gonna win this game, no doubt. Right,

1223
01:00:28,720 --> 01:00:31,320
Speaker 3: this is the games he usually wins. He doesn't roll

1224
01:00:31,360 --> 01:00:34,400
Speaker 3: teams in these kind of scenarios. So the fear is

1225
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:37,440
Speaker 3: what you just talked about. Joe Burrow in his career,

1226
01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:40,400
Speaker 3: he has struggled early in the season. The first two weeks.

1227
01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:42,240
Speaker 3: He is bad Evan just putting on our his thing.

1228
01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:44,400
Speaker 3: He's zeroing four straight up in week two. Joe Burrow

1229
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:46,960
Speaker 3: in his career, So I'm not asking to bet that

1230
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 3: money line here.

1231
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:47,760
Speaker 5: I won't.

1232
01:00:47,800 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 3: I promise I won't put the money line around Robin,

1233
01:00:50,120 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 3: but I am asking to grab the six now just

1234
01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:53,880
Speaker 3: because this could go down to five and a half.

1235
01:00:53,720 --> 01:00:55,120
Speaker 2: And six is such a key number.

1236
01:00:55,200 --> 01:00:58,280
Speaker 3: So yeah, I feel confident in taking making the Simons says,

1237
01:00:58,640 --> 01:00:59,840
Speaker 3: if this is six and a half in our co

1238
01:01:00,520 --> 01:01:02,480
Speaker 3: I think meetchad no doubt we'll have this one in.

1239
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:06,040
Speaker 3: At five and a half, that's a discussion. But at

1240
01:01:06,080 --> 01:01:07,880
Speaker 3: six and a half, I definitely feel confident in putting

1241
01:01:07,920 --> 01:01:08,200
Speaker 3: it in.

1242
01:01:08,520 --> 01:01:11,440
Speaker 1: So look, everybody knows that I love the luck rankings.

1243
01:01:11,440 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 1: We talk about it all the time. It's become a

1244
01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:17,840
Speaker 1: really important signal for us when we talk about these games.

1245
01:01:17,880 --> 01:01:21,160
Speaker 1: And Nick Giffen is now coming on convince me one

1246
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:23,760
Speaker 1: of the predictive analytics gurus we have in our team

1247
01:01:24,000 --> 01:01:27,480
Speaker 1: who helped create the luck rankings. This is one of

1248
01:01:27,560 --> 01:01:30,800
Speaker 1: our two luck ranking sides of the week. We're going

1249
01:01:30,880 --> 01:01:32,680
Speaker 1: to talk about the other one. But this is one

1250
01:01:32,720 --> 01:01:36,520
Speaker 1: of the games where if you separate the signals from

1251
01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:39,680
Speaker 1: the noise, you are looking at a game in which

1252
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 1: the Chiefs might have been overly lucky the week before

1253
01:01:42,840 --> 01:01:46,400
Speaker 1: and the Bengals might have been unlucky the week before

1254
01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:50,080
Speaker 1: and if you bring those two factors together, you're finding

1255
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:54,840
Speaker 1: a lot of value on the plus six. Also, Patrick

1256
01:01:54,880 --> 01:01:58,400
Speaker 1: Mahomes has more than a field goal favorite forty eight

1257
01:01:58,440 --> 01:02:02,560
Speaker 1: percent against spread seventy five percent by the way three

1258
01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 1: or shorter, so well above three. As Simon said, this

1259
01:02:06,680 --> 01:02:12,040
Speaker 1: has moved more than three points since last week, from

1260
01:02:12,160 --> 01:02:15,800
Speaker 1: three to three and a half to six. Mahomes ten

1261
01:02:16,040 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 1: thirteen and two against the spread. When the line moves

1262
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:23,919
Speaker 1: two plus points towards his team, we're betting the overreaction here,

1263
01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:27,800
Speaker 1: Like we can't be timid, we can't be shy. We

1264
01:02:27,880 --> 01:02:30,800
Speaker 1: still got to exercise the same best practices we know

1265
01:02:30,920 --> 01:02:33,720
Speaker 1: to exercise. The game hasn't changed that much, just because

1266
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 1: the public hasn't lost in nineteen freaking weeks, including eighteen

1267
01:02:38,960 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 1: last year and one week this year. Like some things

1268
01:02:41,880 --> 01:02:44,600
Speaker 1: need to be true. We need something to be freaking

1269
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:48,800
Speaker 1: true right now. But yes, Simon says, on the Bengals,

1270
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:51,400
Speaker 1: I bet at plus six, you're betting at plus six.

1271
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:56,160
Speaker 1: We're all betting at plus six. Pittsburgh at Denver. We

1272
01:02:56,200 --> 01:02:58,080
Speaker 1: miffed last week, but what.

1273
01:02:58,040 --> 01:03:01,440
Speaker 4: No one had counted on was the surprising resolve of

1274
01:03:01,480 --> 01:03:03,320
Speaker 4: these young Steelers.

1275
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:05,040
Speaker 1: Like we should have bet the Steelers. It was the

1276
01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:07,720
Speaker 1: prime Mike Tomlin spot. I don't know why we didn't.

1277
01:03:07,760 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 1: We got cowardly because of Justin Fields, which was stupid.

1278
01:03:11,440 --> 01:03:13,840
Speaker 1: The aggressive Steelers turned the game around.

1279
01:03:14,080 --> 01:03:16,120
Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin just kept with too much noise. I think

1280
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:17,040
Speaker 2: you're the same boat as me.

1281
01:03:17,120 --> 01:03:18,439
Speaker 3: You just you had too many people in your ear

1282
01:03:18,480 --> 01:03:20,480
Speaker 3: telling you too much shit and just stare us off it.

1283
01:03:20,600 --> 01:03:23,720
Speaker 1: I agree, And also I think, honestly, I think we

1284
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:26,880
Speaker 1: were too locked in on games from from the offseason.

1285
01:03:27,160 --> 01:03:30,200
Speaker 1: We firmly had bias. That was just the problem. Mike

1286
01:03:30,200 --> 01:03:32,400
Speaker 1: Tomlin has a dog on the road. You book it

1287
01:03:32,600 --> 01:03:35,920
Speaker 1: one hundred percent. Book it. Mike Tomlin is a road favorite.

1288
01:03:36,240 --> 01:03:38,200
Speaker 1: Forty four percent spread.

1289
01:03:38,440 --> 01:03:40,600
Speaker 3: Last week was last week, This week was this week,

1290
01:03:41,000 --> 01:03:42,560
Speaker 3: next week will be next week.

1291
01:03:42,400 --> 01:03:45,400
Speaker 1: When Tomlin opens is three or higher on the road

1292
01:03:45,800 --> 01:03:48,480
Speaker 1: thirty eight percent that alone, and this has been a

1293
01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:51,720
Speaker 1: spot we have bet for years. Right, So we're gonna

1294
01:03:51,720 --> 01:03:55,280
Speaker 1: have to bet Denver plus three here. I will say

1295
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:59,840
Speaker 1: Denver is another team that fits into the luck rankings.

1296
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:04,480
Speaker 1: There is a caveat Week two, home locked teams are

1297
01:04:04,520 --> 01:04:07,360
Speaker 1: five hundred against the spread, so there isn't I can't

1298
01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 1: give you that as a factor, but I do like

1299
01:04:10,720 --> 01:04:14,320
Speaker 1: everything else going the Broncos way. To be honest, I

1300
01:04:14,400 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 1: was impressed with the Broncos last week. Like I thought

1301
01:04:16,640 --> 01:04:20,000
Speaker 1: they were super competitive. It was a backdoor, you know,

1302
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 1: sort of pushed for them because the game landed on six.

1303
01:04:25,080 --> 01:04:27,680
Speaker 1: But I was impressed with the bank with the Broncos.

1304
01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:29,520
Speaker 3: I'm still glad because I was so worried You're gonna

1305
01:04:29,520 --> 01:04:31,760
Speaker 3: come in Pittsburgh with this is a no brain or Denver.

1306
01:04:32,240 --> 01:04:34,760
Speaker 3: I dare the sports books to move this up to

1307
01:04:34,800 --> 01:04:36,920
Speaker 3: three and a half. Oh my god, I can't have

1308
01:04:37,000 --> 01:04:38,840
Speaker 3: that much money I'd put on this If it's justin

1309
01:04:38,840 --> 01:04:41,160
Speaker 3: Fields as a minus three and a half favorite on

1310
01:04:41,200 --> 01:04:46,320
Speaker 3: the road, It's like, man, too much love and respect,

1311
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:50,760
Speaker 3: and you know, unlike whatever the hell Atlanta did last week,

1312
01:04:50,920 --> 01:04:54,600
Speaker 3: Chempaign's going to have it schemed up just for JJ Watt.

1313
01:04:54,680 --> 01:04:57,560
Speaker 3: Everything they do will be either throwing him off balance

1314
01:04:57,840 --> 01:04:59,600
Speaker 3: or moving the ball the other way. Just keep him

1315
01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:03,800
Speaker 3: totally out out of involvement of this entire game. So yeah,

1316
01:05:03,280 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 3: I love this number. And it also wouldn't even talk

1317
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:08,840
Speaker 3: about Denver at home. This is another thing I need

1318
01:05:08,840 --> 01:05:11,360
Speaker 3: to get off. Evan but it's like in my lifetime,

1319
01:05:11,360 --> 01:05:13,880
Speaker 3: in the first two weeks, whatever the number used to be,

1320
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:15,919
Speaker 3: I used to always take Denver at home. And now

1321
01:05:16,480 --> 01:05:18,280
Speaker 3: you know, these last four or five years I've taken

1322
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:20,360
Speaker 3: I've taken a step back from just betting it blindly

1323
01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:23,320
Speaker 3: just because Denver had drafted so terribly and they just

1324
01:05:23,400 --> 01:05:24,760
Speaker 3: kept putting out terrible teams.

1325
01:05:25,320 --> 01:05:26,160
Speaker 2: Chad nailed it, though.

1326
01:05:26,240 --> 01:05:28,040
Speaker 3: Like this team we talked about going the year, I

1327
01:05:28,040 --> 01:05:29,439
Speaker 3: felt like they were going to be hungry and they'd

1328
01:05:29,440 --> 01:05:30,280
Speaker 3: have some fight in them.

1329
01:05:30,600 --> 01:05:31,680
Speaker 2: We saw that in Seattle game.

1330
01:05:31,680 --> 01:05:33,320
Speaker 3: They could have laid down and died when they were

1331
01:05:33,440 --> 01:05:36,440
Speaker 3: down by double digits, and they didn't. Like I'll admit

1332
01:05:36,640 --> 01:05:39,560
Speaker 3: I had, you know, Seattle in the survivor pool. I

1333
01:05:39,600 --> 01:05:41,000
Speaker 3: thought for sure they were going to get the ball

1334
01:05:41,040 --> 01:05:42,600
Speaker 3: back and bone Mix was going to drive the field

1335
01:05:42,640 --> 01:05:45,560
Speaker 3: and just ruin our lives again. So it's like, I

1336
01:05:45,600 --> 01:05:47,680
Speaker 3: can't believe I'm giving any fear to this kid who

1337
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:50,280
Speaker 3: you know, on all Temper's purposes, he did not look

1338
01:05:50,320 --> 01:05:52,400
Speaker 3: great in that game, but like Chad said, when he

1339
01:05:52,440 --> 01:05:54,400
Speaker 3: had to make big plays, he was able to make it.

1340
01:05:54,440 --> 01:05:58,800
Speaker 3: So I like this matchup for Denver, not just offensively,

1341
01:05:58,840 --> 01:06:00,560
Speaker 3: but defense will be I like they're gonna be able

1342
01:06:00,600 --> 01:06:02,160
Speaker 3: to do against fields. I think they're gonna be able

1343
01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:05,000
Speaker 3: to give him problems. And this Pittsburgh offensive line, we

1344
01:06:05,000 --> 01:06:08,080
Speaker 3: saw it against Atlanta. They're they're banged up, they got injuries.

1345
01:06:08,080 --> 01:06:10,160
Speaker 3: They really can't move the ball like they want to either.

1346
01:06:10,240 --> 01:06:12,440
Speaker 3: So let's buy a low one Denver here and sell

1347
01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:15,160
Speaker 3: high on this Pittsburgh team in this spot chat.

1348
01:06:15,280 --> 01:06:19,200
Speaker 1: You know what, I'm making it my exact decision, the.

1349
01:06:19,400 --> 01:06:22,760
Speaker 4: Choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?

1350
01:06:22,920 --> 01:06:23,800
Speaker 2: Are you your honors?

1351
01:06:24,000 --> 01:06:24,280
Speaker 4: Text to.

1352
01:06:25,920 --> 01:06:30,280
Speaker 2: Executive decision, Wow the rookie.

1353
01:06:31,080 --> 01:06:34,400
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm okay. I was debating between this and another game,

1354
01:06:34,440 --> 01:06:37,080
Speaker 1: and no it's not the Bears game, as must be

1355
01:06:37,280 --> 01:06:40,040
Speaker 1: the last game. And I think I've just convinced myself

1356
01:06:40,080 --> 01:06:42,320
Speaker 1: and you've convinced me that I'm going with this as

1357
01:06:42,320 --> 01:06:43,240
Speaker 1: the execut Yeah.

1358
01:06:43,080 --> 01:06:44,760
Speaker 2: It's definitely a good spot to take Denver.

1359
01:06:45,920 --> 01:06:48,800
Speaker 1: Sunday Night Football Chicago at Houston. Houston is a six

1360
01:06:48,800 --> 01:06:51,160
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. This one opened a three

1361
01:06:51,480 --> 01:06:53,640
Speaker 1: and a half. It's now at six and a half.

1362
01:06:54,240 --> 01:06:57,960
Speaker 1: I don't think we know what we know yet about

1363
01:06:58,320 --> 01:07:00,160
Speaker 1: Caleb Williams and the Bears. You got to throw that

1364
01:07:00,200 --> 01:07:04,120
Speaker 1: game away. It was just freaky in Week one. Yeah,

1365
01:07:04,200 --> 01:07:06,440
Speaker 1: he did all these bad things that he used to

1366
01:07:06,520 --> 01:07:09,520
Speaker 1: do in college and can't get away with that in

1367
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:13,680
Speaker 1: the NFL. The scrambling back, the throwing off his back foot.

1368
01:07:14,040 --> 01:07:17,800
Speaker 1: It was just a bad game for him, and the

1369
01:07:17,800 --> 01:07:20,320
Speaker 1: CJ was CJ like. The Texans were aggressive, they won

1370
01:07:20,400 --> 01:07:22,919
Speaker 1: on the road and a vision against a really well

1371
01:07:22,920 --> 01:07:25,800
Speaker 1: coached team. I don't really have a strong opinion here.

1372
01:07:26,360 --> 01:07:27,480
Speaker 2: I said it Sunday night.

1373
01:07:27,640 --> 01:07:30,720
Speaker 3: I would have taken Houston at minus six, minus six

1374
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:31,160
Speaker 3: and a half.

1375
01:07:31,200 --> 01:07:33,680
Speaker 2: I was like, Okay, this sumber will keep going up. Now.

1376
01:07:33,720 --> 01:07:35,440
Speaker 3: I think you're right, Chack. Now the dust is settle.

1377
01:07:35,440 --> 01:07:36,760
Speaker 3: We've had time to relax.

1378
01:07:36,440 --> 01:07:40,160
Speaker 2: A little bit, probably overrating a little bit.

1379
01:07:40,080 --> 01:07:44,160
Speaker 3: On this Houston team just because the Beary's defense is

1380
01:07:44,200 --> 01:07:47,000
Speaker 3: really good. But my fear of Chat is like, Okay,

1381
01:07:48,200 --> 01:07:50,919
Speaker 3: if CJ's in his back and he's cooking a little bit,

1382
01:07:51,200 --> 01:07:54,600
Speaker 3: this game is totally overfast. Because you just can't can't

1383
01:07:54,640 --> 01:07:58,480
Speaker 3: expect no Caleb Williams to really step up in these

1384
01:07:58,520 --> 01:07:59,960
Speaker 3: kind of moments. He just has so much to learn

1385
01:08:00,040 --> 01:08:03,320
Speaker 3: and he is learning on the fly here. So yeah,

1386
01:08:03,360 --> 01:08:05,480
Speaker 3: for us, this this makes sense of we're passing this

1387
01:08:05,560 --> 01:08:07,920
Speaker 3: one just because this is a weird number. And again

1388
01:08:08,800 --> 01:08:10,960
Speaker 3: everyone's gonna be teasing this with the Eagles, like this

1389
01:08:11,000 --> 01:08:13,680
Speaker 3: is going to be the chrukiest Sunday Night and Monday

1390
01:08:13,720 --> 01:08:16,840
Speaker 3: Night two team teaser of the season. So as wish

1391
01:08:16,840 --> 01:08:18,760
Speaker 3: I want to shot on it, it already hit in

1392
01:08:18,840 --> 01:08:21,439
Speaker 3: Week one. Like everyone was teasing the Lions with the

1393
01:08:21,479 --> 01:08:23,760
Speaker 3: forty nine ers and they're like, well, I'm taking them

1394
01:08:23,800 --> 01:08:26,360
Speaker 3: through zero and getting them at a plus number. It's like, yeah,

1395
01:08:26,360 --> 01:08:27,760
Speaker 3: I would love to tell you're an idiot. You're a

1396
01:08:27,800 --> 01:08:30,920
Speaker 3: winner though, So yeah, that's this one. This one will

1397
01:08:31,000 --> 01:08:33,439
Speaker 3: keep it moving. We both want to take the Bears,

1398
01:08:33,479 --> 01:08:35,400
Speaker 3: we know, we just we just can't do it because

1399
01:08:35,400 --> 01:08:36,919
Speaker 3: we're just so terrified of the Texans.

1400
01:08:37,280 --> 01:08:50,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, Monday Night Football, Speaking of Atlanta, Atlanta Philly six

1401
01:08:51,000 --> 01:08:53,400
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite, the Eagles are like, look.

1402
01:08:53,439 --> 01:08:56,000
Speaker 1: Producer Tito showed a great clip from the Falcons game

1403
01:08:56,400 --> 01:08:59,880
Speaker 1: of Kirk Cousins dropping back to throw and basically not

1404
01:09:00,040 --> 01:09:04,000
Speaker 1: being able to plant office reconstructed achilles. He threw one

1405
01:09:04,120 --> 01:09:10,559
Speaker 1: hopper off of one leg. We expect rust the Steelers

1406
01:09:10,600 --> 01:09:15,480
Speaker 1: D line and the edge dominated a really great Falcons

1407
01:09:15,600 --> 01:09:18,720
Speaker 1: offensive line. This line has moved two and a half

1408
01:09:18,800 --> 01:09:24,200
Speaker 1: points towards the Eagles. Simon, and this is our second

1409
01:09:24,720 --> 01:09:29,600
Speaker 1: luck side of the week. It would have been my

1410
01:09:29,800 --> 01:09:33,120
Speaker 1: exac decision. Feel like we got to take the Falcons.

1411
01:09:34,200 --> 01:09:36,320
Speaker 3: We do, but let's wait and see. Evan will have

1412
01:09:36,360 --> 01:09:38,200
Speaker 3: some numbers for us. I feel like in his career

1413
01:09:38,840 --> 01:09:40,960
Speaker 3: he has not done well in these spots, Kirk coming

1414
01:09:41,000 --> 01:09:43,680
Speaker 3: to Philadelphia in these prime time games. The question here

1415
01:09:43,680 --> 01:09:46,879
Speaker 3: with Kirk is this man can't move. What's the ego's

1416
01:09:47,000 --> 01:09:49,320
Speaker 3: only true strength on the D line. There are two

1417
01:09:49,400 --> 01:09:52,880
Speaker 3: D tackles who push up the middle, Jalen Carter Jordan Davis.

1418
01:09:53,320 --> 01:09:56,200
Speaker 3: That's a terrible match for them. Next week Kirk gets

1419
01:09:56,240 --> 01:09:58,720
Speaker 3: the Chiefs and you know, guess who's coming up the

1420
01:09:58,720 --> 01:09:59,160
Speaker 3: middle of there.

1421
01:09:59,240 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 2: You know Christians.

1422
01:10:00,040 --> 01:10:02,080
Speaker 3: So it's just like he's gonna get back to back

1423
01:10:02,120 --> 01:10:03,280
Speaker 3: weeks of really talented D.

1424
01:10:03,280 --> 01:10:04,320
Speaker 2: Lions coming up the middle.

1425
01:10:04,400 --> 01:10:07,280
Speaker 3: So the movement here feels warrant to compare to a

1426
01:10:07,320 --> 01:10:10,800
Speaker 3: lot of the other lines because people did have high expectations.

1427
01:10:10,800 --> 01:10:13,519
Speaker 3: I moved him down in my own ratings and moved

1428
01:10:13,560 --> 01:10:16,880
Speaker 3: him down number wise with Kirk just because he is

1429
01:10:16,920 --> 01:10:18,880
Speaker 3: not the Kirk. We saw in the Vikings, right, this

1430
01:10:18,920 --> 01:10:22,160
Speaker 3: is Kirk in a new offense, getting comfortable, and they're

1431
01:10:22,200 --> 01:10:25,280
Speaker 3: really dealing with baby gloves. Right, everything is a little predetermined,

1432
01:10:25,280 --> 01:10:28,120
Speaker 3: like if he was in shotgun and it was like

1433
01:10:28,160 --> 01:10:30,960
Speaker 3: basically a guarantee he was going to drop back and pass.

1434
01:10:31,000 --> 01:10:33,320
Speaker 3: If he's in you know, underneath center, he was gonna

1435
01:10:33,360 --> 01:10:34,760
Speaker 3: hand it off. And it was just like they were

1436
01:10:34,760 --> 01:10:37,960
Speaker 3: literally dictating exactly what they were gonna do in Pittsburgh

1437
01:10:38,000 --> 01:10:40,000
Speaker 3: by the second half, just dominate him because they knew

1438
01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:41,720
Speaker 3: exactly what plays they were gonna run if it was

1439
01:10:41,720 --> 01:10:44,040
Speaker 3: gonna be run her pass, which is just like I

1440
01:10:44,040 --> 01:10:46,160
Speaker 3: can't believe that happened at the NFL levels.

1441
01:10:46,240 --> 01:10:50,439
Speaker 2: It's pretty mind boggling. So Chad's right. Professional wise, it's

1442
01:10:50,479 --> 01:10:51,280
Speaker 2: just like the Bears.

1443
01:10:51,320 --> 01:10:54,160
Speaker 3: It's like everything in my body's telling me to take

1444
01:10:54,240 --> 01:10:56,200
Speaker 3: this other side, especially the six and a half.

1445
01:10:56,240 --> 01:10:59,920
Speaker 2: But it's like, you know, is this moved enough? Should

1446
01:11:00,000 --> 01:11:01,760
Speaker 2: call this? Not be up to seven at this point.

1447
01:11:01,800 --> 01:11:04,320
Speaker 3: It's just I feel like we already know for a

1448
01:11:04,360 --> 01:11:06,320
Speaker 3: fact the Eagles are going to put up thirty points.

1449
01:11:06,840 --> 01:11:09,080
Speaker 3: Is Kirk kind of get us to twenty fours? That's

1450
01:11:09,080 --> 01:11:12,080
Speaker 3: the question here. So I'm with Chad. I'll pass on

1451
01:11:12,120 --> 01:11:14,479
Speaker 3: this one for now. Hopefully we come back Thursday, this

1452
01:11:14,520 --> 01:11:15,880
Speaker 3: will be seven. Now I'll be able to take this

1453
01:11:15,960 --> 01:11:16,639
Speaker 3: Atlanta side.

1454
01:11:16,960 --> 01:11:18,840
Speaker 1: Yeah. The one thing that's interesting to me about this

1455
01:11:18,920 --> 01:11:21,439
Speaker 1: game versus the Steelers game, I think the Steelers are

1456
01:11:21,479 --> 01:11:24,559
Speaker 1: much better on the edge than the Eagles are.

1457
01:11:24,640 --> 01:11:25,400
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, no doubt.

1458
01:11:26,240 --> 01:11:29,599
Speaker 1: I do think like the strength of the Falcons offensive line,

1459
01:11:29,600 --> 01:11:31,840
Speaker 1: which is one of the best in the league, is

1460
01:11:31,920 --> 01:11:35,320
Speaker 1: their right guard in their center. So if there's any

1461
01:11:35,360 --> 01:11:38,519
Speaker 1: spot where they can match up well with the Eagle strengths,

1462
01:11:38,880 --> 01:11:40,720
Speaker 1: it's the center of the line, which gives Bejon a

1463
01:11:40,720 --> 01:11:43,280
Speaker 1: better chance to get to the edge. I agree like

1464
01:11:43,320 --> 01:11:45,720
Speaker 1: it's a scary game. That's why I didn't ultimately pull

1465
01:11:45,720 --> 01:11:48,639
Speaker 1: the trigy ground exact decision. But it is a luck

1466
01:11:48,640 --> 01:11:51,759
Speaker 1: game if we're looking for if we're looking for reasons.

1467
01:11:51,320 --> 01:11:54,479
Speaker 3: And before we hop off, Chad, the Miami Dolphins are

1468
01:11:54,520 --> 01:11:56,240
Speaker 3: up to minus two and a half now against the

1469
01:11:56,240 --> 01:11:59,120
Speaker 3: Bills on Thursday night, So grabbed the two if.

1470
01:11:59,040 --> 01:12:00,280
Speaker 2: You can moving.

1471
01:12:00,280 --> 01:12:03,400
Speaker 1: Because we're saying it. We say it, we say it here,

1472
01:12:03,760 --> 01:12:06,559
Speaker 1: it happens there. It's like broadcast news. It's like you

1473
01:12:06,600 --> 01:12:09,320
Speaker 1: and I are are Albert Brooks and the rest of

1474
01:12:09,360 --> 01:12:11,559
Speaker 1: the world is William Hurt. I'm referencing a movie from

1475
01:12:11,560 --> 01:12:14,680
Speaker 1: the eighties. I don't care, doesn't matter. You know what.

1476
01:12:14,720 --> 01:12:16,120
Speaker 1: The old heads are going to get it. They're gonna

1477
01:12:16,120 --> 01:12:18,000
Speaker 1: be like I appreciate check.

1478
01:12:18,040 --> 01:12:18,439
Speaker 2: Here you go.

1479
01:12:19,160 --> 01:12:22,000
Speaker 1: As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet

1480
01:12:22,000 --> 01:12:24,600
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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next

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01:13:06,160 --> 01:13:08,760
Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday,

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01:13:09,280 --> 01:13:14,640
Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern to cover our NFL Week two best Bets.

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01:13:14,800 --> 01:13:17,760
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01:13:17,800 --> 01:13:21,960
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1497
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1499
01:13:27,200 --> 01:13:37,559
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1500
01:13:37,600 --> 01:13:41,000
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