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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. There is a longer term issue here,

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Speaker 1: and that is that markets, both stocks and bonds are

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Speaker 1: priced to deliver very very lower terms. We look for

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Speaker 1: cash flow. We like companies that generate cash and that

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Speaker 1: to some extent ends up in the dividend. We're already

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Speaker 1: seeing our guts low downs in terms of foreign investment

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Speaker 1: in the UK. You can see clearly in terms of

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Speaker 1: emmen adials which are coming in Bloomberg Surveillance, your link

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Speaker 1: to the world of economics, finance and investment on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Good morning. I'm Karen Moscow along with Tom Keene and

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Speaker 1: Michael McKee, and some of the stories we are following

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Speaker 1: this morning. Home a depot posting first quarter profit that

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Speaker 1: talked analysts estimates and it raised its earnings forecast for

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Speaker 1: the year as Americans continue their home improvements free providing

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Speaker 1: a bright spot for the retail industry. Shares are rising

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Speaker 1: in early trading. They're up a tenth of upper cent.

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Speaker 1: They were hired earlier this morning, so they have been

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Speaker 1: trimming their gains. Futures this morning they're little change. Do

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Speaker 1: s n P Emity futures down a point. Dowie Mini

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Speaker 1: futures up one and nasdacimity futures up three decks. In

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Speaker 1: Germany's up a tenth of upper cent ten year treasury

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Speaker 1: little change yield one point seven five percent. Now I'm

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Speaker 1: ex scrude oil little changed up two cents to forty

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Speaker 1: seven seventy four cents of barrel co makes gold up

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Speaker 1: eighty cents to twelve seventy five and ounce the euro

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Speaker 1: dollar thirteen twenty two when the end one oh nine

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Speaker 1: point five to the Aussie dollar point seven three to five. Tom,

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Speaker 1: Good morning, Karen, Good morning, Good morning to you lovely.

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Speaker 1: Here a data check in some of the movement. Their

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Speaker 1: yen one oh nine fifty gets my attention. I'd also

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Speaker 1: watch r in Menby migrating a weaker in Menby over

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Speaker 1: the last few days. Bloomer surveillance This morning worldwide brought

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Speaker 1: you by Investco. Looking for investment views. Experienced experts are

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Speaker 1: just to click away. Go to investco dot com, slash

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Speaker 1: us to subscribe to the investco blog and follow at

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Speaker 1: invest go us on Twitter. Right now, we're gonna follow

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Speaker 1: Torston Sluck. He's been with us for much of the

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Speaker 1: morning with Deutsche Bank, and I guess one way to

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Speaker 1: go here, Torston. Within a broader conversation is when does

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Speaker 1: the US economy click in? Mark Sandy has been an

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Speaker 1: optimst will be with us later. There's others looking sub

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Speaker 1: two percent. I'd say there's a consensus somewhere out there,

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Speaker 1: but the real issue is on the margin, when does

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Speaker 1: the American economy click in? Are we there right now?

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Speaker 1: With that jobs reporter Friday? I think the important thing

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Speaker 1: to remember is that the growth at two percent has

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Speaker 1: absolutely not been spectacular, but it's not been bad either,

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Speaker 1: And I think that many in markets are looking at

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Speaker 1: tenure rates at seventy five and are concluding, wow, if

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Speaker 1: rates are so low, that must mean that the U.

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Speaker 1: S economy is unhealthy. And there's suddainly some imbalances still

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Speaker 1: that we're working on. But broadly speaking, what we need

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Speaker 1: to remember is that fifty percent treasuries to health by foreigners,

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Speaker 1: and it is those foreigners and the outlook for the

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Speaker 1: rest of the world that's been a very important reason

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Speaker 1: why US rates continue to be so low. So if

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Speaker 1: I bring up the five year five year bet on

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Speaker 1: inflation called the five year five year forward just as

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Speaker 1: a basic idea, and the answer is that's a pretty

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Speaker 1: low rate, right, Does that signal disinflation set by the

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Speaker 1: markets come back a little bit since February to be honest,

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Speaker 1: But does it signal disinflation or an actual successful reflation? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think that people look at this and then wonder, well,

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Speaker 1: does the fate have things under control? Are they about

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Speaker 1: to create inflation? But if you think about this from

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Speaker 1: an output gap perspective, you think about from a full

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Speaker 1: capacity perspective. The dual mandate of the FIT is to

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Speaker 1: get to full employment, and you should not expect to

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Speaker 1: see inflation before you get to full employment. When you

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Speaker 1: get to full employment, you start to see a minimum

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Speaker 1: way just go up. And this is exactly what we're seeing.

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Speaker 1: Minimum wages go up at the corporate level, minimum way

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Speaker 1: just going up at the state level. And that's why

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Speaker 1: this pressure, combined with the doll and outfolding, is expected

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Speaker 1: to push inflation higher. This is also the fat's own forecast.

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Speaker 1: So it is only when you get to full employment

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Speaker 1: that you should expect to see inflation. I mean within

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Speaker 1: that And I guess it goes back to Phillips curve

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Speaker 1: and Frank passion on the school of economics. The invention

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Speaker 1: of the word slack a million years ago. Does the

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Speaker 1: Phillips curve in that model of inflation dynamics and job

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Speaker 1: dynamics is still in place? I think absolutely so, because

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Speaker 1: the very important thing exactly about that discussion, as you say,

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Speaker 1: is that in the Phillips curve, you have an inflection point,

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Speaker 1: and the inflection point is when you hit full employment.

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Speaker 1: A less complicated way of saying that is that that

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Speaker 1: inflection point is when you hit the unemployment rate at

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Speaker 1: which you have full employment, and by the aform C measures,

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Speaker 1: this is slightly below five. And that means that we

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Speaker 1: are now at five. So we are closer than we've

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Speaker 1: been for many many years to that full employment point

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Speaker 1: and therefore to that inflection point when you should start

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Speaker 1: to see inflation go higher. But margarets have not been

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Speaker 1: viewing inflation as a risk for quite some time, and

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Speaker 1: you've not been paid if you thought that there was

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Speaker 1: inflation coming. But it is actually pretty clear in the

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Speaker 1: firs own forecast. I think that's why Rosen and Evans,

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Speaker 1: some of the most delish members of them, are now saying, well,

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Speaker 1: you know what, we actually get close to that infliction

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Speaker 1: point to rates will be going I'll go that, particularly

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Speaker 1: with Charles Evans of Chicago, he's had a shift and

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Speaker 1: where we are how does that game play in the

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Speaker 1: June and July meetings. Also, I know you can't talk

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Speaker 1: about Brexit with Deutsche Bank, but I'm sorry. There's a

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Speaker 1: small event at the end of June which is sort

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Speaker 1: of like Y two K. Well, and on top of that,

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Speaker 1: you also have that even the June FIRMC meeting, it's actually,

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Speaker 1: as you say in your question, the June FIRMC meetings,

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Speaker 1: it turned out to be an event now because the

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Speaker 1: market is still discounting is a thing. Uh, they will

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Speaker 1: not high grades in June, and we don't think that

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Speaker 1: they will high grades in June. But the fact that

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Speaker 1: so many FMC men was including Lacka yesterday basically said well,

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Speaker 1: there's very strong acument for going in June. I still

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Speaker 1: think that the discussion continues among the firm CEED members.

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Speaker 1: This is a really really important thing for markets because

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Speaker 1: the markets assigning a very very low probability to rates

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Speaker 1: going up basically anytime soon. But I think the AFMC

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Speaker 1: is trying to tell us, hey, guys, there is actually

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Speaker 1: a good case to be made for the economy reaching

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Speaker 1: full capacity and therefore for us hitting out through the mandates.

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Speaker 1: I go to the Bloomberg here and go what Mike

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Speaker 1: McKean memorizes, which is the speech calendar for the FED.

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Speaker 1: On this May seventeen, Williams and Lockhart team discussion with

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Speaker 1: Politico and then the newly minted Capitlain of Dallas. Well,

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Speaker 1: he moderates, Mike, I mean, moderation is not going to

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Speaker 1: get president Capitlain of Dallas and trouble at the Midland

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Speaker 1: Petroleum Club. I think he's leaning in the direction of

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Speaker 1: hoping to be able to increase. As a matter of fact,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna be talking with Jeff Lecker on this program

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Speaker 1: on a right here on our show on Thursday morning,

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Speaker 1: so we'll get more of his feelings about it. But

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Speaker 1: I think Torsen's right, and a lot of FAT officials

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Speaker 1: have been telling me, you know, we've been disappointed in

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Speaker 1: the way the market has reacted to what we've been saying.

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Speaker 1: We're trying to tell them that rates are gonna maybe

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Speaker 1: go up, and they're not listening. Is that a reflection

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Speaker 1: of a problem for the FED? Have they lost credibility? Well,

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Speaker 1: very important to put this discussion. If you tive w

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Speaker 1: I r P. On your Bloomberg screen, you will see

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Speaker 1: that the probability of a FED rate hike is still

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Speaker 1: in the single digits, and that's of course at four percent,

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Speaker 1: at very very low level relative to where therefore m

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Speaker 1: C speak is at the moment. So I think that

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Speaker 1: there's certainly an enormous umrestle going on between the market

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Speaker 1: saying you're not gonna be able to high rates, and

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Speaker 1: therefore em C members saying, hey, with our economics framework

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Speaker 1: and our full capacity and our inflation outlook, we actually

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Speaker 1: do believe that it's time to high rate sooner than

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Speaker 1: markets uprising at the moment. Is that because nobody listens

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Speaker 1: to the rest of the FED, and Janet Ellen is

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Speaker 1: the only one that matters well. I think she's of

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Speaker 1: course really important. But the challenge for her is to

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Speaker 1: get the consensus together here. I mean, she needs to

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Speaker 1: literally get the band together to do something here that

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Speaker 1: markets are convinced by. The nightmare for the FED obviously

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Speaker 1: would be if you have too many dissents, So I

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Speaker 1: don't think that will happen, but I still think that

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Speaker 1: it's a huge when some way from Seamen must go

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Speaker 1: out and say very clearly, we think there's a strong

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Speaker 1: case to be made for hiking in June, because that's

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Speaker 1: not at all what markets uprising at the moment. Tom

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Speaker 1: Janet has two speeches coming up May and June six.

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Speaker 1: I think, so we'll hear from the chair. Every word

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Speaker 1: will be massage. What is the actual progress right now?

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Speaker 1: I guess Friday we saw actual progress with the jobs report,

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Speaker 1: didn't and retail sales also is a very important issue

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Speaker 1: that the consumer is now not as bad as we

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Speaker 1: have feared. And it does make sense if you think

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Speaker 1: about in the consumption function on the right hand side,

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Speaker 1: you have jobs, you have wealth, and you have financial conditions,

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Speaker 1: and all those things are very supportive of consumer spending.

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Speaker 1: So it makes sense to expect the consumer to come

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Speaker 1: back here. So what have you shifted a Deutche Bank,

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Speaker 1: what what what have you done to I'm gonna call

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Speaker 1: it a two percent call. I would say that the

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Speaker 1: main thing, in particular for the fair but also for

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Speaker 1: the economy, the main thing really for the outlook continues

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Speaker 1: to be this chokolf war between is it domestic us

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Speaker 1: conditions that matter? Oh? Is it conditions that broad? Because

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Speaker 1: the outlook for China, Europe Brazil, emerging markets, it's just

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Speaker 1: not that great. So therefore, for quite some time will

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Speaker 1: continue to see a talk of war between US fundamentals

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Speaker 1: slowly grinding high and getting better and better. And on

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Speaker 1: the other hand we have the rest of the world

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Speaker 1: falling behind and only catching up. It was so slowly

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Speaker 1: I had my weedies, Michael McKee, So I can look

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Speaker 1: at the dots chart. I'm strong enough to look at

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Speaker 1: it towards to have you seen a time when you

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Speaker 1: and your colleagues across the industry are more divided over

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Speaker 1: where the economy of the US and the world is going.

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Speaker 1: Then now I think there's almost a gravity model here

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Speaker 1: that if you further you are away from the U S,

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Speaker 1: they're more worried you are about the US outlook. And

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Speaker 1: that says a love because we're quite worried in the US.

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Speaker 1: So that means that when I travel around the world,

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Speaker 1: both in Europe and in Asia, I meet a lot

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Speaker 1: of investors that basically have the view that the US

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Speaker 1: is having some fairly significant challenges, both structural but also

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Speaker 1: cychnical headwinds that it has to deal with. First Turston,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much. Towards Deutsche Bank. It must interesting

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Speaker 1: discussion U this morning as well. Mike, I want to

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Speaker 1: give Michael McKee a shout out. Can I do that, folks?

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Speaker 1: What I do wrong? This time? You killed it on

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Speaker 1: home depot. You absolutely killed that cop sales view and

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Speaker 1: then they outdidn't you? Yeah, weren't even more optimistically interesting

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Speaker 1: thing about home depot is is it's much of it

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Speaker 1: is an internal story. They're running a good business. How's

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Speaker 1: it gonna been good? But they're running a good business?

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Speaker 1: Home deep was the last time either one of you

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Speaker 1: was inside a home depot about a week ago. There's

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Speaker 1: a home depot in our building, John, I know that,

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Speaker 1: but they don't. They don't unlike others. They don't lumber,

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Speaker 1: they don't sell lumber. It is the middle. He's never

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Speaker 1: been in one. K Lang once chestised to be chestised

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Speaker 1: to be futures a negative two this hour of surveillance.

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Speaker 1: Qut you by BMW map KISSCOVI is it BMW Kiss

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Speaker 1: dot com. Here's Michael Barn Mike Tom, thank you very

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Speaker 1: much to day voters in Kentucky and Oregon. We'll head

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Speaker 1: to the polls today for primaries. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary

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Speaker 1: Clinton has been putting in time campaigning in the Bluegrass

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Speaker 1: state what could be a competitive race against Bernie Sanders. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: people are still talking about an ugly moment involving Sanders supporters.

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Speaker 1: They are accused of throwing chairs and making death threats

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Speaker 1: against Nevada Democratic Party chairwoman ROBERTA. Lange at the state

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Speaker 1: party convention over the weekend. At least sixteen people have

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Speaker 1: been killed in an explosion today in an outdoor market

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Speaker 1: in Baghdad. Police see a car with explosives have been

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Speaker 1: parked near the market, and up to forty five others

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Speaker 1: were wounded. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack,

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Speaker 1: at least for now. Global News twenty four hours a day,

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Speaker 1: powered by our four hundred journalists more than a hundred

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Speaker 1: fifty news bureaus around the world. I'm Michael Barr and

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Speaker 1: like I say so much, cannath On on on Twitter. John

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Speaker 1: Tucker suggest Macy's ought to start selling two by fours.

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Speaker 1: I could see that up the wooden escalatings. Macy's two

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Speaker 1: by four. That's your business plan for today only. I'm

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance brought to you by your try

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Speaker 1: State BMW Center's business online to try state BMW dot

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Speaker 1: com at BMW. They make only one thing, the ultimate

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Speaker 1: driving machine.