1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:12,119 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 3 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and 4 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 2: broyd Outo with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 3: Sure our typic story. The geopolitical story of the day 7 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 3: is tarris President like Trump looking at post tariffs on 8 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 3: a lot of our leading partnershare. Brendamurray joins his Bloomberg 9 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 3: Global Trade editor. Hey Brendan, you're the expert on trade. 10 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 3: What do you make of this story here about TIFFs? 11 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 4: Well, for those of us who covered Trump's first term, 12 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 4: this was a bit of a flashback to a time 13 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 4: when you might get a message from your boss at 14 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 4: eight o'clock a night saying he's done it again. And 15 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 4: sure enough, the incoming president tweeted some tariff threats last 16 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 4: night to the three biggest US trading partners, China, Canada, 17 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:02,960 Speaker 4: and Mexico. The ones that stood out were the cand 18 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 4: for the twenty five percent tariffs on mechs, everything from 19 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 4: Mexico and everything from Canada, which would essentially throw the 20 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 4: US economy into a tailspin blow up NAFTA and its successor, USMCA. 21 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 5: So that's what I didn't understand is Trump negotiated the 22 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 5: USMCA in twenty twenty when signed it with Mexico and Canada, 23 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 5: So why would he blow up his own agreement. 24 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, that's a good question, because these threats 25 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 4: aren't intended necessarily to be promises that eventually get fulfilled. 26 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 4: They are threats, they are bluffs, and you know they're 27 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 4: meant to drive the other party to the negotiating table. 28 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 4: So he will have plenty of advice. If this goes 29 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 4: to you know, January twentieth, then he's still threatening this, 30 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 4: He'll have a lot of advisors around him saying, you know, 31 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 4: you're going to destroy the US audio industry if you 32 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 4: do this. So you know, there's there's a lot of 33 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 4: time between now and the inauguration day. You know, maybe 34 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 4: there's some negotiation that can come out of it. That 35 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 4: you know that he's already gotten a call from Justin 36 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 4: Trudeau in Canada. The Mexican leader said said just a 37 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:21,920 Speaker 4: few minutes ago that Mexico will respond with his own threats, 38 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:25,080 Speaker 4: and she said, you know, the main exporters from Mexico 39 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 4: to the US are General Motors Stillantis and Ford Motor Company. 40 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 4: So you know there's the big you know, the big 41 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 4: auto companies there. So so we'll see what happens. But 42 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 4: you know, markets had a reaction, but it's nothing too 43 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 4: too drastic. Yep twelve eighteen hours afterwards. 44 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 3: Hi, Brendan, thank you so much. We appreciate it. Brenda Murray. 45 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 3: He's Global trade editor for Bloomberg News, joining us from 46 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 3: London via zoom So. I think some of the reporting 47 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 3: I've seen today alex is potentially using tariffs as a 48 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 3: bargaining chip for other issues down the line. 49 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 5: Literally, it's a dajav of twenty sixteen exactly right. 50 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:05,640 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 51 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:09,239 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 52 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business at You can also listen 53 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 54 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty right. 55 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:20,799 Speaker 6: Headed back to the market here. 56 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 5: It is earning's craziness, particularly when it comes to retail. 57 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 5: We got tons of news out here. Mary Ross, Gilbert 58 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 5: Bloomberg Intelligence and your equity analyst is joining us in 59 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:31,359 Speaker 5: some of those retail earnings. 60 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 6: Can we talk about Ross stores. 61 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 7: For excuse me? Coles? 62 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 6: Coles, right, Coles? What happened here? With Coles? 63 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 5: I get the weather situation, but I mean, is it 64 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 5: a real thing or is this the excuse of the weather? 65 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 4: No? 66 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 8: So with Coles, it wasn't a weather thing at all. 67 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 8: It was an execution issue. So the company reported COMP 68 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 8: sales down nine point three percent. What that means is 69 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 8: that their core business, the core apparel categories, they were 70 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 8: in the double digits because so four beauty sales on 71 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 8: a comp basis were up nine percent. So what happened 72 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 8: in the quarter? What was the miss? It was on 73 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 8: the private label side. So as the company was bringing 74 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 8: in some new categories, including two hundred toys r US 75 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 8: shops in the quarter that they opened. Plus they have 76 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 8: some home decors impulse items that they've brought in, and 77 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 8: in so doing, they drew back on their private label 78 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 8: and then also petites and that really cost them dearly 79 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:37,720 Speaker 8: in the quarter. Since then they haven't made improvements and 80 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 8: they saw toward the end of the quarter a five 81 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 8: hundred basis points improvement in the comp sales decline. But 82 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:50,160 Speaker 8: this basically led to them naming a new CEO. They 83 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 8: have brought in Ashley Buchanan as CEO. He's with Michael 84 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 8: Stores and he's known for improving the profitability and turning 85 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 8: that business around. He also has had stints at Walmart 86 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:06,599 Speaker 8: as the chief merchant of US e commerce and also 87 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 8: the CEO of that e comm business in Walmart, So 88 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 8: he really brings a lot to the party. 89 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 3: Wow, there's a lot of moving parts there at Cohl's 90 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 3: And as you mentioned, you know what the big issue 91 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 3: is execution. What did the company say, If anything, it's 92 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 3: about their core underlying demand out there. I mean, what 93 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 3: do they did? You give it any read on the consumer? 94 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean the reason why they missed on the 95 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:33,799 Speaker 8: private label is because those are more open price point 96 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 8: items and that their core consumer is sort of that 97 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 8: lower to low middle income consumer. So they're earning under 98 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 8: fifty thousand, under seventy five thousand, and well they will 99 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 8: draw on some higher end consumers. The core consumer is 100 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 8: really they have less discretionary income in this environment, and 101 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 8: then there's so many other choices out there with off 102 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:01,280 Speaker 8: price mass merchants. We had great numbers that came out 103 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 8: of Walmart, and they're apparel category doing well, so I 104 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:07,799 Speaker 8: think that's where they've had the miss. But they've really 105 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 8: stepped up engagement with their core consumer and they're seeing 106 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 8: that that's really, you know, helping the sales. 107 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 5: There is this just a matter of say Walmart. I 108 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 5: mean TJX is a little bit different. But let's just 109 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:24,239 Speaker 5: say Walmart doing really well with over one hundred thousand 110 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 5: and under one hundred thousand. 111 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,479 Speaker 6: They're a one stop shop. Is it really a Walmart story. 112 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 8: No, it's not really a Walmart story. It's really it's 113 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 8: a Cohle's execution story. That's really what happened. What about Abercrommie, Ah, 114 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 8: here's a different story. Abercrombie and Fitch hits it out 115 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 8: of the ballpark it again with comp sales up sixteen percent. Hollister, 116 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 8: which is their gen Z brand, was up twenty one percent. 117 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 8: Analysts were expecting eleven percent. This company did not say 118 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 8: weather was an issue for them. They said that they 119 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:02,359 Speaker 8: always believe that they need have balanced categories so that 120 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:03,679 Speaker 8: weather isn't a factor. 121 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 7: And of course it is a global. 122 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:09,159 Speaker 8: Business and they were doing well across all markets, including China, 123 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 8: so they were also up in China as well. So 124 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 8: Abercrombie has a very different story, just superb execution. They 125 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 8: have all the categories that their customers want. They introduced 126 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 8: Your Personal Best YPB, which is kind of like a 127 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 8: Lululemon alternative for their customer at more amenable price points, 128 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 8: and it's second full year of that business and it's 129 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 8: continuing to grow. So they're giving their consumers what they 130 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 8: want and it's showing up in the results. So quite 131 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 8: a different story with Abercrombie. 132 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 3: So the stock's off five percent, but I see that 133 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 3: the stock was up sixty six percent year to date. 134 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 3: So is just a little profit taking today for Abercrombie. 135 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 8: Investors, Yeah, probably a little breather. I think they're going 136 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 8: to continue to execute going forward. And then when you 137 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 8: think of the big headlines right now with tariffs with 138 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 8: abercrombiere teriff exposure for imports coming from China into the 139 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 8: US is only like five to six percent of sales, 140 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 8: and they could also dial that back further if necessary. 141 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 5: Well when it comes to an overall macro takeaway. So 142 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 5: that's the unquestioned right, we don't know what the tariff 143 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 5: situation is going to be. What is our Macro read 144 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 5: on the retail names that you cover, because as you 145 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 5: made it clear, like the cols is execution, So can 146 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 5: we really take something away. 147 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 6: What's your broader take here? 148 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,680 Speaker 8: Well, based on most of the companies that have reported 149 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 8: so far, weather has definitely had an impact. So for example, 150 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 8: we also had Burlington Stores, which is in the off 151 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 8: price space and it's one of the fastest growing because 152 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 8: it's so small and they're opening up about one hundred 153 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 8: stores every year, and their comp sales rose just one percent. 154 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 8: Analysts were expecting two point two percent, but they said, look, 155 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 8: winter weather categories make up about fifteen percent of our 156 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 8: sales in the third quarter, so if you strip it out, 157 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,199 Speaker 8: our comp sales were really up four percent. So they 158 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 8: are saying, hey, we were prepared for the weather, and 159 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:12,680 Speaker 8: we didn't get it until really until we moved into November. 160 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 8: So I think most of the companies that have reported, 161 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,680 Speaker 8: including TJX, which had great numbers, but they also missed 162 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 8: a little on the comp sales and it was due 163 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:26,959 Speaker 8: to weather. So that's been the underlying, I think factor, 164 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 8: and I think we'll probably hear it coming out of 165 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 8: Nordstrom when they report after the clothes today too, but 166 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 8: we do think that Nordstrom could beat estimates, but we'll 167 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 8: see when they report later. 168 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 3: Mary, when all is said and done here this holiday season, 169 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 3: how do you think it's going to turn out from 170 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 3: a top line number. 171 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 8: I'm very optimistic. I think the consumer has proven to 172 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 8: be very resilient and if you have highly desirable apparel, 173 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 8: you're going to get the sales. And clothing is a 174 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 8: big category for the holidays, so it's the second largest, 175 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 8: you know, second to let's say, electronics, So I think 176 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 8: it's going to perform well. If you look at a 177 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 8: lot of the holiday dressing that's out there, it's pretty exciting. 178 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 8: We now have cool weather that is set in in 179 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:15,439 Speaker 8: most parts of the country. That's good news. That's going 180 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:18,959 Speaker 8: to draw sales. And that's actually based on our consumer 181 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 8: survey that we conducted recently. The number one driver second 182 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 8: to discounts is weather. The change in weather. The change 183 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 8: in weather does cause consumers to go out and spend 184 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 8: money on new clothes. 185 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 5: So, like, we make fun of it, but it's real, 186 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 5: I guess. I mean, I never see the weather thing 187 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 5: on earnings release. I'm like, uh huh, so sure, all right, 188 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 5: thanks a lot. We really appreciate Mary Ross Gilbert joining 189 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:43,079 Speaker 5: us from a Boomberg Intelligence. 190 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 191 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on fo card Playing and 192 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:54,200 Speaker 2: broyd Outo with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 193 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 194 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:03,200 Speaker 3: Peter Chair Joints, US head of Macro Strategy Academy Securities. Hey, Peter, 195 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 3: you and your team you woke up Wednesday, November sixth, 196 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:08,959 Speaker 3: the morning after the election and when it became a 197 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 3: parent that president like Trump was going to be the 198 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 3: next president and that we would have a Republican control 199 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 3: of Congress. To what extent if any, did that alter 200 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 3: the way you guys think about investments going forward? 201 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 9: You know, I think for us there's two things about 202 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 9: it right One, what's it going to do on the 203 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 9: geopolitical landscape? What's it going to do on the domestic landscape? 204 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:30,680 Speaker 9: And what will that do then for our investments? And 205 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,680 Speaker 9: I think really it takes us to really being all 206 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:36,439 Speaker 9: in on commodities. We think commodities, whether it's rare, earth's, 207 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 9: critical minerals, oil, are going to be supported by this government. 208 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 9: I think you're going to see some activity in the chips. 209 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 9: I think you're going to see kind of a national 210 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 9: security type level thing where one we impose some tariffs, 211 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 9: maybe strategically, but also we actually provide some supplements and 212 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 9: some boost to the companies that we need to do 213 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 9: things domestically. And I think one of the big things 214 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 9: that's going to change is not in my backyard. We're 215 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 9: going to review a lot of the rules that have 216 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 9: been in place over the last ten to fifteen years 217 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 9: that were done when there was a luxury that the 218 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 9: US was the sole superpower that are going to be 219 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 9: rethought a little bit in terms of, hey, China's and 220 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 9: economic superpower. They're fighting with us. What are we going 221 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 9: to do about it? 222 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 5: Well, Peter was interesting though when you mentioned commodities, is 223 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:19,959 Speaker 5: that the result of all this can also be a 224 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 5: stronger dollar, which could be negative for commodities. 225 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 6: How do you square those two things? 226 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 9: So, in fact, I think you're right. I don't think 227 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 9: commodities themselves are going to do particularly well, but the 228 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 9: commodity related companies will do very well. Right, They're going 229 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 9: to be allowed to produce more, They're going to be 230 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:36,680 Speaker 9: allowed to make profits. So I think you want to 231 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 9: continue to play in those stocks. I look at XL, 232 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 9: for example, on the energy space that has continued to 233 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 9: do well, even while oil itself hasn't done well. So 234 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 9: this is much more a play in the companies themselves 235 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 9: because they're going to be able to produce more. And 236 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 9: I think anyone who does services should do very well. 237 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 9: So I think that's the play. It's not in the 238 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 9: commodities itself, It's in the commodity related stocks. 239 00:12:55,760 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 3: Peter Reed overnight we had a bunch of tariff discussion 240 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 3: coming from the President and elect. How do you think 241 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 3: about tariffs and does that impact maybe sectors you look 242 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 3: at around the world. 243 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,839 Speaker 9: So right now, I'm not overly concerned about tariffs. I 244 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 9: think Wall Street coming into the election just took every 245 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 9: worse thing you know than you know. Trump on the 246 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 9: campaign trails set about tariffs and came up with these 247 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 9: kind of ridiculous assumptions. How I see it as he 248 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 9: is trying to negotiate this, and I think one change 249 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 9: we have to remember is Trump is going to say 250 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 9: this right up until the last minute. Right he can't say, hey, 251 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 9: don't worry about this, I'm just faking to get them 252 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 9: to the table, because that would lose all the power. 253 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 9: He does have the benefit that he actually did put 254 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 9: tariffs on in twenty eighteen, which at the time a 255 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 9: lot of econdoms said were awful. We said, we're just 256 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,319 Speaker 9: we weren't starting a trade war. We were only fighting 257 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 9: back for the first time. None of those economists complained 258 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:50,840 Speaker 9: in twenty twenty two, when there's twenty twenty when Biden 259 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 9: left those tariffs on. So I think this is more 260 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 9: negotiating employee. We'll bring China to the table, We'll bring Canada, 261 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 9: mex to the table. I think with China it's pretty 262 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:00,679 Speaker 9: easy negotiations right now. I think think there will be 263 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 9: we can't give in on anything on high tech. We 264 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 9: can give in on things like food, and we will 265 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 9: try and work with them, and China is probably going 266 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 9: to have to absorb some of the costs of whatever 267 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 9: get implemented. Is there economies not so well, I would 268 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 9: say discussions around the world. It's Mexico that just seems 269 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 9: we should be thinking more about tariffs and more about 270 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 9: how do we really work with Mexico to create a 271 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:24,360 Speaker 9: robust environment or an industrial manufacturing base that we can utilize. 272 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 5: Right Yes, exactly ex staring that that base won't be 273 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 5: really going away. How does this all then translate to 274 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 5: the bond market, right, Because in terms of narrative storytelling, 275 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 5: the story was, ooh, Scot percent, we like him, that's 276 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 5: going to be good for treasury, that we want to 277 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 5: buy treasuries a lot, and yields go down. Then today, oops, 278 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 5: we have tariffs. Maybe that is distressing. We're going to 279 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 5: sell a little bit in the belly. That's the narrative. 280 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 5: What's the correct narrative? 281 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 9: So I think at four fifty it was pretty obvious 282 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 9: even four to forty five you should be buying treasuries. 283 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 9: I think we get down to ten four, ten, four fifteen, 284 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 9: partly because I think people got ahead of themselves on deficits, 285 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 9: they got ahead of themselves on terrorists, and some of 286 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 9: that's getting walked back. But I also look very closely 287 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 9: at positioning. You have spec short interest is very high 288 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 9: in treasuries. You have a lot of the CTAs are 289 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 9: allegedly pretty short treasuries. You'd even seen kind of retail 290 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 9: coming out of some of the long and duration. So 291 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 9: I think people kind of got whipsawd are badly positioned. 292 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 9: So I think you get to four to ten, maybe 293 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 9: four fifteen, that range on tens, and then you want 294 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 9: to start shorting again because the story won't be rosy 295 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 9: next year. But people price them way too much, way 296 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 9: too early. 297 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 6: Credit risk. 298 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 3: How much credit risk, if any, do you want to take? 299 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 3: Because I note that the best performance in fixed income 300 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 3: has been US high yield and US leverage A loans. 301 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 9: Yeah, I think you continue to take credit risk. And 302 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 9: I've looked at it from two standpoints. One is, at 303 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 9: the high quality end, I think more and more people 304 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 9: are overweight, you know, short dated corporates versus t bows. Right, 305 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 9: you still don't know what's going to happen with debt 306 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 9: ceiling things like that. And then at the long end, 307 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 9: you have this really neat competition, right, you have all 308 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 9: this private credit pushing in. And then I think you 309 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 9: saw a lot of banks pull back on their lending 310 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 9: after Silicon Valley Bank. So what they've had to do 311 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 9: is now catch up, so they're lending. So you have 312 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 9: a lot of support for this, and you know, I'd 313 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 9: be more worried about the leverage loan than the high 314 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 9: yield bond market. I think you know one thing I 315 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 9: really get frustrated. I see a lot of charts ten, fifteen, 316 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 9: twenty year charts on high yield. It's so not the 317 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 9: right thing to look at. The high yield market used 318 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 9: to be very small, issuers companies that you didn't know. 319 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 9: Almost every issue in the highield market now is big. 320 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 9: They have public equity. It's hard to get surprised, so 321 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 9: I think that makes sense. Leverage loans, I think are 322 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 9: a little bit you know, where you have more one 323 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 9: off trades. So I would be probably moving out of 324 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 9: leverage loans focused on, you know, the high yield. I think, 325 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 9: you know, some of the business development corporations could be interesting, 326 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 9: but I'm very comfortable credit here right now. 327 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 6: Still, Peter's so great to catch up with you. 328 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 5: I mean, it's like any question you ask if you 329 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 5: have an opinion and answer, and they're usually right. All right, 330 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 5: Peter Cheer ahead of Macro Strategy at Academy Security. 331 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 6: Thank you so much. Really appreciate that. 332 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 333 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:58,600 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 334 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Misiness. You can also listen live 335 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,360 Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say, 336 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 2: Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 337 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 5: Let's pust some biotech here. So you have amgine sinking 338 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 5: after its weight loss drug. Maybe wasn't as good as expected, 339 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 5: I mean, though it's still delivered some solid results. You 340 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 5: also have a Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly rising potentially 341 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,399 Speaker 5: the Biden administration proposing that Medicare and Medicaid covered the 342 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:26,200 Speaker 5: obesity drugs. 343 00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 6: So who do we go to? 344 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,639 Speaker 5: We go to Sam sam Fazelli, Bloomberg Intelligence director of 345 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 5: Research for Global Industries and a senior pharmaceutical analyst. Hey, Sam, 346 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 5: how real is this Biden proposal? 347 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 6: Do you think? 348 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 10: Well, Alex, the thirty five billion dollar number was floated 349 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 10: a little while ago. As to the cost of this 350 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 10: to the system over nine years, it's not exactly a 351 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:53,399 Speaker 10: large number, right. If you could genuinely get a significant 352 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 10: number of people at the sort of ages that they 353 00:17:56,000 --> 00:18:00,879 Speaker 10: are in the Medicare program, reduced their risk of invascular disease, 354 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 10: reduce the risk of sleep happena, the kidney disease, which 355 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,680 Speaker 10: is what these drugs do, I think that's a win. 356 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 10: So I think this is a really good possibility for 357 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 10: it to happen. Obviously, President Biden wants it to happen. 358 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 10: The question really is whether the next administration is going 359 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 10: to try and reverse it or would there be appetite 360 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 10: to continue with it. 361 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 3: All right, we're speaking weight loss drugs. What happened to 362 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 3: am jen? It's rare that I see these guys swinging 363 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 3: miss here. 364 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 10: Well, so, Paul, I think there was. We've seen this 365 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:38,040 Speaker 10: movie place over and over again. Companies say we've got 366 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:41,199 Speaker 10: a great obesity drug, and let's be honest. You know, 367 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:46,200 Speaker 10: twenty percent weight loss isn't bad and side effect profile okay, 368 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,120 Speaker 10: maybe a little bit worse, but this was a dose 369 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 10: escalation trial, et cetera, et cetera. The problem is everybody 370 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 10: gets that sort of level of efficacy. How are you 371 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:58,159 Speaker 10: going to compete against the might of No One nor 372 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 10: Disk and Lily when they come to market where they've 373 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 10: got all those indications just talked about sleep apnea, cardivascular 374 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 10: risk reduction, kidney osteoarthritis, and they've been on the market 375 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 10: for X number of years and over noticed with the 376 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 10: diabetes indication included over and well over a decade. So 377 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,640 Speaker 10: how do you compete? You need better data than that 378 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:25,120 Speaker 10: and somebody might say, okay, well it's a once a 379 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 10: month drug. Well really once a month versus once every 380 00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:31,919 Speaker 10: week with the pen that you don't even notice you using. 381 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 10: I think that's what a lot of people would say. 382 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 10: So that's where the issue is. They needed to really 383 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:41,959 Speaker 10: hit a home run and they ran a there and 384 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 10: also run instead. 385 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 5: So do you think they're gonna so what's going to 386 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 5: take for them to not do an also round. 387 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,360 Speaker 10: I'm pretty sure they're going to continue to do the trials. 388 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 10: Maybe they'll find that they can extend to every quarter 389 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 10: instead of every month. Then that becomes a little bit 390 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 10: more interesting potentially. But at the end of the day, 391 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 10: a lot of these drugs we still we saw it 392 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,360 Speaker 10: with rash, we saw it to a degree with AstraZeneca. 393 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 10: They come up with the excitement, how we've got a 394 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 10: new drug. Although at least Rushi and Asentica have some 395 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 10: oral versions. I think these guys maybe are also looking 396 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:18,919 Speaker 10: at a rural versions. Uh and the news comes there 397 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 10: go oh okay, so what does it take. It needs 398 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:23,919 Speaker 10: to be significantly. 399 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:27,439 Speaker 3: Different, So about the oral version taking via pill just 400 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 3: asking for a friend, by by the way, what are 401 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 3: you guys gonna come up with that because I just 402 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 3: consider you're a big pharma. 403 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 10: Yeah I am, I am, I am big farmer. 404 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:36,439 Speaker 4: Look at me. 405 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 10: No, no, look Oral, I think it will come. There 406 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 10: are drugs in development and they're going to go through 407 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 10: it and they'll come again. What are they useful for? 408 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,360 Speaker 10: Because nobody seems to bat annihilid to take an injection 409 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:53,919 Speaker 10: once a week. Again, as I said, these needles are 410 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 10: very fine. So most people say they don't even feel 411 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 10: it going in. Not everybody. Some people don't like a 412 00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:01,120 Speaker 10: needle injection. 413 00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 3: I'm the one that applies the injection and it's fun. 414 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 7: I enjoy it. 415 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 6: It's yeah. 416 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 3: We do it every Saturday. I got to get an 417 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 3: adult beverage, a cocktail. We gather and we do the injection. 418 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 10: It's kind of this is a group activities, Yes it is. 419 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 6: It is all right, Sam beg group. 420 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 3: But yeah, thank you so much. Sam Fazzelli, he's a 421 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,159 Speaker 3: director of research for Global Industries. I'm not sure what 422 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 3: that is, but I know he's a senior pharmaceuticals analyst 423 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,199 Speaker 3: for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's one of the best in the 424 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 3: city of London. Widely highly regarded in London and in 425 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 3: the US. 426 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 427 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 428 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live 429 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 430 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,640 Speaker 2: Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven. 431 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 5: Thirty Alex Steel alongside Polsmoeni Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We're broadcasting 432 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 5: to live from Interactive Brooker Studio right here in Midtown Manhattan. 433 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,160 Speaker 5: So we hit a record high yesterday on the SMP, 434 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 5: didn't close it a record high. We had another record 435 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,680 Speaker 5: high today on the SMP. And Deutsche Bank comes out 436 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,120 Speaker 5: with its SMB forecast for next year at the high 437 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 5: end seven thousand. It is one of the most bullish 438 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,160 Speaker 5: forecasts over on Wall Street. Let's talk to Anna Rapper, 439 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,760 Speaker 5: now a CIO at Sibiz Investment Advisory Services, and are 440 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 5: you also going to be like, hey, sixty six hundred 441 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 5: next year seven thousand, How bullish are you? 442 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:29,680 Speaker 1: Well? I don't know if I would do that at 443 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:34,480 Speaker 1: twenty two x forward pe multiples. You know, I think 444 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 1: a lot of what's happening in the markets right now 445 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 1: is just euphoria for one reason or another. There's promise 446 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:46,439 Speaker 1: of tax cuts. There's this idea that tax you know, 447 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,920 Speaker 1: the tax cuts from twenty seventeen are going to be extended, 448 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 1: especially because if we have a red wave, there's promise 449 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 1: of deregulation. There are no details right now, so it's 450 00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: sort of running on fumes. But one we have the 451 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 1: details in twenty twenty five, we're expecting there to be 452 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 1: a lot of volatility as the markets start to price 453 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 1: in those details. So sitting here at twenty two x 454 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 1: PE multiple, I'm not necessarily thinking that it's going to 455 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 1: be a road straight up. 456 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,840 Speaker 3: So the day after the election, on a did you 457 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:21,800 Speaker 3: and your team make any material changes to your outlook, 458 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:25,919 Speaker 3: your asset allocation? How did you guys try to process that? 459 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:30,640 Speaker 1: You know, in terms of asset allocation, we did have 460 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 1: a little bit of an overweight and small cap because 461 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 1: we believe that if mister Trump had won that the 462 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 1: upside would be greater than the downside if he hadn't won. 463 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,680 Speaker 1: So that worked out for us. It's still working out 464 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,359 Speaker 1: for us. But in terms of outlook, you know, you 465 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 1: have to sort of ask how much again, how much 466 00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 1: of this euphoric outlook is actually going to take place? 467 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 1: And we don't know if there's going to be an 468 00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 1: actual fundamental change to the US economy in the boots 469 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: on the ground kind of fashion that it would actually 470 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,400 Speaker 1: make us think differently about the labor market or think 471 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 1: differently about prices, because one person in the White House 472 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 1: can't change that. So we're still a little bit skeptical 473 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 1: about a lot of this enthusiasm. But I guess only 474 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:19,399 Speaker 1: time will tell. 475 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 5: So this was a total reducs from twenty sixteen. Right 476 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,479 Speaker 5: like you get a tweet, you get an instantaneous stock 477 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,919 Speaker 5: move or an individual stock move, and then you'd have 478 00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 5: the weight. Maybe this won't be the end goal, maybe 479 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:33,880 Speaker 5: something will change and then sort of a pairing back 480 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 5: of the market reaction. 481 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 6: How do you avoid that this time. 482 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 5: In that are there places you can go where you 483 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 5: don't have to worry about the tweets? 484 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I'm not sure if we can finde 485 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,639 Speaker 1: I mean, if twenty sixteen to twenty twenty taught us 486 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,880 Speaker 1: anything that these tweets or I guess it's truth, social 487 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 1: or whatever platform it is, it's gonna come now. I 488 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 1: think the people that mister Trump has surrounded himself with 489 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,199 Speaker 1: will make a difference as we saw yesterday. There's a 490 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:05,199 Speaker 1: lot of confidence in Scott Besant, and I think some 491 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 1: of the news that came out on the new tariff 492 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:12,880 Speaker 1: threats that will also probably involve not just the Treasury, 493 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 1: but the Commerce Department as well, because the negotiating factor 494 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 1: here isn't economic. The negotiating factor here is drugs and immigration, 495 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,959 Speaker 1: and it will impact certain industries more than others. So 496 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,199 Speaker 1: I think there's going to be hopefully a group effort 497 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,680 Speaker 1: in looking at some of these you know, so called 498 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:33,560 Speaker 1: you know, tweet based policies, and it will continue to 499 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,120 Speaker 1: be measured, and that is that is definitely a hope. 500 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,439 Speaker 3: Fixed income space, Anna, how do you think about this? 501 00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 3: Do you stick with the two year treasury at four 502 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 3: and a quarter or do you go out there and 503 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 3: try to take some credit risk here? 504 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, we've all we've had credit positions both 505 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: on the investment grade side as well as high yeel side. 506 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,520 Speaker 1: Their sizing is different. We favor investment grade because I 507 00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 1: think that the credit spreads are narrow and that does 508 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 1: worry us a little litle bit, and we have taken 509 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 1: some chips off the table, but we do think that 510 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:08,439 Speaker 1: as long as the economic growth seems to be in 511 00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:12,160 Speaker 1: place that it's going to be fine, And in terms 512 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,720 Speaker 1: of clipping coupons, we can continue to clip them. In 513 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,639 Speaker 1: the high yield space, we are a little bit cautious 514 00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,800 Speaker 1: because there tends to be an equity beta component to 515 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,840 Speaker 1: the price movement when things do go wrong. But in 516 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 1: the meantime we can still continue to clip coupons. So 517 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 1: right now for us in fixed income space, it is 518 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,440 Speaker 1: really a clipping of the coupon environment. 519 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,320 Speaker 5: Yeah, and then just kind of watching and waiting and 520 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 5: seeing when that trade will reverse. I want to get 521 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,200 Speaker 5: your tech on small caps. So record high yesterday, MidCap, 522 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 5: same deal. Now the rustle is down one percent. Clearly 523 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 5: is a terriff overhang here. What do you do with 524 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,199 Speaker 5: those really economically sensitive parts of the market. I mean, 525 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 5: materials and industrials are one of the worst performers in 526 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:51,760 Speaker 5: the S and P. 527 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, so small caps. I think the ride up, I 528 00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,520 Speaker 1: mean we were enjoying it right now, but we're also 529 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,119 Speaker 1: internally talking about, Okay, what do we do with this 530 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:06,360 Speaker 1: overweight position because the headwind for small caps isn't gone 531 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 1: because mister Trump got elected. I mean, maybe there may 532 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 1: be some deregulation that would be helpful. But remember what's 533 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 1: happening in the treasury market is that yields are heading up. 534 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,439 Speaker 1: I mean we're seeing that today with the whole trade 535 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 1: talk or tariff talk. That's not going to be helpful 536 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:26,439 Speaker 1: for small caps. And certainly tariffs as we see today 537 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 1: aren't going to be helpful for small caps. So I 538 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 1: think there needs to be we can have exposure to it, 539 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 1: but there needs to be an intelligent discussion about what 540 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:35,239 Speaker 1: the right sizing is. 541 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,960 Speaker 3: Thank you so much for joining us, Anna Rathbund. She's 542 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:43,680 Speaker 3: a chief investment officer for ceba's Investment Advisory Services based 543 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 3: out there in Ohio in the Cincinnati area. 544 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:52,359 Speaker 2: There you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us 545 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,600 Speaker 2: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple card Play 546 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,439 Speaker 2: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can 547 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 2: also listen live on AM on Alexa from our flagship 548 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:05,360 Speaker 2: New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven. 549 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:09,199 Speaker 3: Thirty Alex Steele and Paul Sweeney. We are live here 550 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,879 Speaker 3: in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio in New York City. 551 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,040 Speaker 3: Were streaming live on YouTube, so head over to YouTube 552 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:17,399 Speaker 3: dot com search Bloomberg Podcast that's where you will find us. Well, 553 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,560 Speaker 3: the retail earnings, they are coming in fast and furious. 554 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 3: Right now, We're going to take a look at a 555 00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 3: couple of them, best Buy and Dick's Sporting Goods. Best 556 00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 3: Buy a little bit weaker stock trading down about six percent. 557 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:32,160 Speaker 3: Dick Sporting Goods, however, they strong back to school stocks, 558 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,000 Speaker 3: trading a little bit higher here today. Stucks a forty 559 00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:37,200 Speaker 3: seven percent Dick Sporting Goods year today. That's a big 560 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,480 Speaker 3: move for a retailer. Lindsay Dutch joins US consumer hardline 561 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 3: senior analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. She is safely aisconsed in 562 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:48,600 Speaker 3: our Princeton University campus down there, down at Princeton. Lindsey, 563 00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,200 Speaker 3: thanks so much for joining us here. Let's start with 564 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 3: Dick Sporting Goods. They called out strong back to school sales. 565 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 3: That's that's a good sign. 566 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 11: Yes, thanks for having me. I think Dix had a 567 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 11: strong quarter, you know again, stronger than expected, sort of 568 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 11: continuing the trend that we've seen earlier this year. You know, 569 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 11: they have you know, the items that kids these days 570 00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 11: want in footwear, athletic apparel and their exclusive sort of 571 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,560 Speaker 11: vertical brands are also doing very very well, and that 572 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 11: really supported that back to school and it gives a 573 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:24,640 Speaker 11: lot of optimism when we think about holiday and the 574 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:25,680 Speaker 11: fourth quarter coming out. 575 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,480 Speaker 5: So I realized that best Buy and dis are different stores, 576 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 5: but the way you describe Dick Sporting Goods, it feels 577 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:33,240 Speaker 5: like it should have been the same for best Buy 578 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,240 Speaker 5: right back to school. They do have some exclusive items, 579 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 5: et cetera. 580 00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 6: Why not. 581 00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 11: Yeah, So I think that's a great question, Alex. I think, 582 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,160 Speaker 11: you know, when we think back three months ago, best 583 00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:48,240 Speaker 11: Buy had a great quarter and it was on back 584 00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 11: to school for them, back to school is a little bit. 585 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:51,440 Speaker 7: More college bias. 586 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:53,840 Speaker 11: It does hit a little bit earlier in the year, 587 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 11: then Dix might benefit from. And the demand for laptops 588 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:02,920 Speaker 11: was very strong in the second quarter, and you know 589 00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,680 Speaker 11: best By raise their guidance, there was strong optimism that 590 00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 11: we were going to get. 591 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 7: Back to growth mode. 592 00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 11: I still think, you know, there's a possibility for a 593 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:14,840 Speaker 11: strong holiday for best Buy laptops did They were up 594 00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 11: comp sales seven percent in the third quarter, but that 595 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:23,440 Speaker 11: was overridden by weakness and some of the other categories appliances, 596 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:28,880 Speaker 11: home theater being key ones. It sounds like they're really 597 00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:33,200 Speaker 11: leaning into promotions for the fourth quarter and really looking 598 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,960 Speaker 11: to get aggressive with promotion, especially for their premium product 599 00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 11: and things that are exclusive to best Buy, to really 600 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:42,160 Speaker 11: draw that shopper in. 601 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,840 Speaker 3: How's it when you talk to your retailer companies that 602 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 3: you covered, lindsay, what are they saying about just this 603 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 3: whole holiday season when all is said and done, How 604 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:52,800 Speaker 3: is it gonna We're gonna have growth this year? So 605 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 3: better than last year? How are they shaking out? 606 00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:56,240 Speaker 2: Really? 607 00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,040 Speaker 7: Yeah? So growth looks pretty weak. 608 00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 11: I also think it's divergent and sort of like last year. 609 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,440 Speaker 11: So there's some categories that are just in a better position. 610 00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 11: You know, beauty would be one of those sports where 611 00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 11: you know, where Dix is playing. Is also one of 612 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 11: those where just demand generally is a little bit stronger. 613 00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 11: And then we have other categories that are still on 614 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:22,040 Speaker 11: the weaker side, home appliances, and some of that still 615 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 11: you know, obviously affects best Buy, It also affects companies 616 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:26,960 Speaker 11: like william Sonoma RH. 617 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:28,760 Speaker 7: We also have a bifurcation. 618 00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 11: I think in the consumer, you know, a higher in 619 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:35,640 Speaker 11: consumer still seems to be holding up pretty well. Dix 620 00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:39,360 Speaker 11: is another benefactor there, you know, their customer base is 621 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,840 Speaker 11: on the higher income side, whereas best Buy is probably 622 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,920 Speaker 11: a little bit more like the average of the overall country. 623 00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,760 Speaker 11: So I think, you know, the deal days that these 624 00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:52,600 Speaker 11: companies are rolling out, you know, they each have their 625 00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,600 Speaker 11: own strategies on how they want to manage that. But 626 00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 11: as I said, best Buy is going to get very 627 00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 11: aggressive with those deals. Consumer high or low income is 628 00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,880 Speaker 11: very value focused, and we may have seen a pause, 629 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 11: you know, people holding back waiting for those deals in 630 00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:10,720 Speaker 11: the third quarter results. 631 00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's like you're describing me exactly. 632 00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,600 Speaker 3: Hey, Lindsey, how about from an industry perspective, when I 633 00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,280 Speaker 3: if I ever find myself going into store, which I 634 00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,320 Speaker 3: hope that doesn't happen, Am I going to find the 635 00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:23,239 Speaker 3: stuff I'm looking for? 636 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:23,440 Speaker 6: Like? 637 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,200 Speaker 3: Has everybody got the inventory they need? 638 00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:26,400 Speaker 9: Here? 639 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:30,200 Speaker 3: I don't hear too many, you know, supply chain stories anymore. 640 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:35,560 Speaker 11: Yeah, So supply chain, the supply chain woes of COVID 641 00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:38,160 Speaker 11: have sort of gone away, you know. I think, you know, 642 00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,560 Speaker 11: retailers maybe a little over a year ago were probably 643 00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:45,160 Speaker 11: over inventoried. I think inventory is in a healthier position 644 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,920 Speaker 11: this year, you know, for the retailer themselves, but also 645 00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:51,040 Speaker 11: for the shopper and I think that the retailers are 646 00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:54,800 Speaker 11: working really hard to make that in store experience a 647 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,560 Speaker 11: positive one for those that go in store. But there's 648 00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,800 Speaker 11: also a lot of focus online, so that mine shopper, 649 00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 11: you know, best Buy is doing doorbusters. 650 00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:05,440 Speaker 7: Again this year, but it's it's for that in. 651 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 11: Store shopper, but also if you are a member and 652 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,239 Speaker 11: have the app, you could also take advantage of that. 653 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:15,520 Speaker 11: So they're really looking to you know, capitalize on that experience. 654 00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:17,200 Speaker 6: What about tariffs? 655 00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 5: So if we do get tariffs on China and Mexico 656 00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:25,000 Speaker 5: and Canada, like we heard on True Social yesterday, what 657 00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:25,720 Speaker 5: was the impact? 658 00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 6: How do they manage it? 659 00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:31,920 Speaker 11: Yes, so best Buy they have talked about, you know, 660 00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:36,040 Speaker 11: as a big picture, as a percent of cogs, about 661 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:41,480 Speaker 11: sixty percent of their inventory, you know, is manufactured in China. 662 00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,840 Speaker 11: That's about the same as where it was in eighteen 663 00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 11: and nineteen. For the products that they they have direct 664 00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,840 Speaker 11: control over, the exposure is low and they've sort of 665 00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,360 Speaker 11: managed that down and they discussed on the call this 666 00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,240 Speaker 11: morning that you know, the burden of that cost is 667 00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,720 Speaker 11: really going to be shit between the manufacturer or supplier, 668 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 11: the retailer, and the possibly the consumer if it comes 669 00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:08,359 Speaker 11: to that. 670 00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:13,040 Speaker 7: Dick's exposure is pretty low. When I look across my coverage. 671 00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:16,360 Speaker 11: You know, elf Beauty stands out. They have eighty percent 672 00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,520 Speaker 11: of their supply chain is manufactured in China. 673 00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 7: Very highly exposed. 674 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,520 Speaker 11: A company like that is looking to lean on price 675 00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 11: increases to sort of manage that type of cost. 676 00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:29,719 Speaker 3: So terifs are inflationary, is that all I'm hearing? 677 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 5: That's weird. I didn't know that. No one talked about 678 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:36,000 Speaker 5: that before. But again, like what we actually wind up seeing, 679 00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:38,760 Speaker 5: et cetera, is that when it wint up being different. Lindsay, 680 00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:41,920 Speaker 5: thanks a lot, Lindsa Dutch Bloomberg Intelligence Consumer Hardlines as 681 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 5: senior analyst, joining us on best Buy in Dickporting Goods. 682 00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,920 Speaker 5: All I heard was that best By sales are coming, 683 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:48,239 Speaker 5: But then I have to go there. 684 00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:49,200 Speaker 6: I don't want to do that. 685 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,640 Speaker 8: Yeah, well, maybe a member or something along those lines. 686 00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:52,879 Speaker 4: Right. 687 00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:57,839 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on apples, Spotify, 688 00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:01,239 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcast. Listen live each 689 00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,840 Speaker 2: weekday ten am tonoon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 690 00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:08,360 Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 691 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 2: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 692 00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:13,400 Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg terminal