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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action all right. Here we go

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Speaker 2: in front of the test throwing in Joe speak, we're sitting.

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Speaker 1: It's a cash touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go swin.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible, bank small to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabata and we are underway. Hello,

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Speaker 2: and welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson here today with special guests from the Ringer

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Speaker 2: brought back to the old stomping grounds, Anthony Debundo here

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Speaker 2: to talk some NFL with me. It's June, it's almost July.

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Speaker 2: Football is around the corner. The summer of sports this year.

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Speaker 2: The NBA wrapped up last night as we speak. We

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Speaker 2: got all sorts of sports happening. The BANDA you watch

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Speaker 2: and cover like every sport in the world. What are

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Speaker 2: what are you watching and not watching this summer?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, It's funny because people talk about the NBA Finals

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Speaker 3: as like the end of the kind of sporting calendar.

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Speaker 3: But hey man, you know my Philadelphia Afillies are in

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Speaker 3: first place. We've got Wimbledon starting next Monday, the Club

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Speaker 3: World Cup, which I'm struggling to really get into. But

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Speaker 3: I'm I think I'm going to get there now that

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Speaker 3: the knockout stage is coming around as this kind of

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Speaker 3: made up new event that they just started at FIFA.

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Speaker 3: So there's always things to be watching, to be talking about.

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Speaker 3: Big time storylines for the Summer Open Championship of course

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Speaker 3: coming up. If you're a golf fan, which I'm not,

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Speaker 3: but you know we're officially in that season now, right.

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Speaker 3: If you're one of those people that loves the NBA,

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Speaker 3: loves the NFL, well, now it's time to start talking

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Speaker 3: because the NFL will be here sooner rather than later it.

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Speaker 2: Will be So that's what we're doing. We're going to do.

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Speaker 2: We're calling this the playoff picture of Luka Hats. So

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Speaker 2: as we start to hit July, we're starting to get

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Speaker 2: the gears moving. Right. The NFL Draft, it was so

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Speaker 2: long ago. I remember who went on all the teams

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Speaker 2: and where all the players are at. We kind of

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Speaker 2: like dug back in, like all right, let's get things moving.

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Speaker 2: So all we want to do today is since the

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Speaker 2: playoff format switched to fourteen teams about half a decade ago,

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Speaker 2: on average, out of those fourteen, we typically see about

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Speaker 2: eight of the fourteen make the playoffs again, but I

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Speaker 2: means six fallout almost half of them. So we're gonna

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Speaker 2: try to go through. We'll do AFC today, NFC later

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Speaker 2: this week. We're gonna say, okay, who stays, who goes,

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Speaker 2: and then who replaces the departed. So yeah, we're gonna

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Speaker 2: go through AFC teams today. We're gonna sort of draft

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Speaker 2: in order who we're most confident in to make the

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Speaker 2: playoffs to stay in the playoffs, and then we will

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Speaker 2: go through all seven from last year in or out,

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Speaker 2: and we need six. Each of us will pick six

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Speaker 2: teams to mess. Doesn't have to be THREEFC three. NFC

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Speaker 2: figured out our teams beforehand, so we'll see how that goes.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, then at the end, we'll give you our

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Speaker 2: early leans on who is taking those now vacant spots.

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Speaker 2: This is early, it's June. There are no islands here yet.

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Speaker 2: Were not like unloading the future's portfolio here. Yeah, we're

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Speaker 2: tiptoing in. We're getting some early feelers out there. Be

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Speaker 2: sure listen to the NFC version when we get to

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Speaker 2: that later in the week. AFC all the star quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: We'll be honest, not a lot of intwegued at the

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Speaker 2: top here as far as teams that we're pretty sure

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Speaker 2: will make the playoffs. Du bundo, you're up first. Who's

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Speaker 2: a team that may last year's playoffs that you think

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Speaker 2: will be there again?

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Speaker 3: I think the first pick in any draft would default

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Speaker 3: to Kansas City, but I actually don't think they're the

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Speaker 3: most likely to return. And of course I still think

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Speaker 3: that the Chiefs are going to make the playoffs, and

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Speaker 3: Patrick mahomes track record speaks for itself. But with the

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Speaker 3: first pick, I'm going to take Buffalo mainly because the

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Speaker 3: schedule was just hilarious.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they basically don't have.

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Speaker 3: Much to be worried about here in this schedule. They have,

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Speaker 3: you know, a super Saiyan quarterback who has no real

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Speaker 3: notable injury history, and their schedule is really really easy,

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Speaker 3: especially the home schedule. They get Kansas City and Affilly

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Speaker 3: at home, so that's probably their two quote unquote toughest.

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Speaker 1: Games on the calendar.

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Speaker 3: They get Baltimore at home as well, so everybody's got

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Speaker 3: to go to Orchard Park. And when Buffalo has been

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Speaker 3: as good as they've been at home, I just don't

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Speaker 3: really see a ton of flaws here. They rebuilt the defense.

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Speaker 3: Like last year was supposed to be the step back

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Speaker 3: season for them, where they're like, yeah, this defense isn't

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Speaker 3: really great, and it turned out the defense really wasn't great.

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Speaker 3: And now I think they'll just be better. And I

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Speaker 3: think mcdermot's ability to coach up defenses makes a huge difference.

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Speaker 3: They proven they didn't need Stefon Diggs. They can be

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Speaker 3: a great offense by kind of having the sum be

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Speaker 3: more than the whole, or the wholeby more than the

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Speaker 3: some of the parts. And I don't really see anything

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Speaker 3: standing in Buffalo's way in this division either. Everybody thinks

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Speaker 3: New England will be better fair, but Miami's going the

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Speaker 3: wrong way.

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Speaker 1: The Jets are starting justin fields.

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Speaker 3: I think Buffalo is the safest bet in the entire

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Speaker 3: league really to make the playoffs this year.

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Speaker 2: So I agree with you. I got Buffalo win. We're

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Speaker 2: you know, we're parsing between like a hand, you know,

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Speaker 2: a few hundred percent effectively is at the top here.

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Speaker 2: I'm surprised Buffalo top pick. I actually came into this

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Speaker 2: exercise thinking maybe Buffalo be my big sleeper out team.

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Speaker 2: Yet no, because Josh Allen end of story, Josh Allen

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Speaker 2: means playoffs, and sure Josh Allen could get hurt. That

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Speaker 2: could be true of any of the other guys too.

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Speaker 2: We can't project that necessarily. I'm a little skeptical just

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Speaker 2: on I do think this is a regression team. The

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Speaker 2: question of just how much the defense has lost a

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Speaker 2: lot of names over the years and maybe just was

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Speaker 2: time for those veterans to go. The big move is

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Speaker 2: Joey Bosa. That's not really moving the needle for me.

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Speaker 2: The offensive line was super healthy last year. That's great,

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Speaker 2: but doesn't not necessarily mean US can continue the next year.

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Speaker 2: They didn't really have a big draft impact. It's really

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Speaker 2: just Josh Allen, which means playoffs because it's Josh Allen.

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Speaker 2: Ten wins in six straight years, ten or more wins

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Speaker 2: obviously passed the wildcard round the last five years in

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Speaker 2: a row, top five point differential the last five years

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Speaker 2: in a row. I think the division would be better

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Speaker 2: than all was last year. I think the Bills will

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Speaker 2: be worse than they were last year. I think the

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Speaker 2: Bills will make the playoffs. So Josh Allen Bills into

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Speaker 2: the playoffs. I'll come back at you with another shocker here.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna pick the Chiefs to make the playoffs to

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Speaker 2: bund out the Kansas City Chiefs. Can you believe it?

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Speaker 3: Riveting start one more thing on Buffalo, one more thing

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Speaker 3: on Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: They kept Joe Brady.

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Speaker 3: I think that was because really, like you can draw

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Speaker 3: a through line to when they became more of a

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Speaker 3: run heavy, lean on teams offense that didn't rely on

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Speaker 3: Josh to just kind of lean into the worst of

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Speaker 3: Josh's instincts of just throwing the ball over the yard.

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Speaker 3: And that's really when we saw Josh take a step

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Speaker 3: up in his efficiency and step down and turnovers, which

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Speaker 3: was a huge thing that hurt them the year prior.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree it. Well, we'll hope they keep Joe

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Speaker 2: Brady all season. McDermott has had this sort of pattern

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Speaker 2: of like, well, we had our dip in the season,

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Speaker 2: better fire another assistant again. So I agree. I like

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Speaker 2: Joe Brady a lot. Hopefully they actually keep him around Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, if you're listening to this podcast, that

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Speaker 2: you know the Chiefs are making the playoffs lost, Patrick

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Speaker 2: Mahomes gets hurt, even if they don't get hurt as

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Speaker 2: much as we should. Look at fifteen and two last

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Speaker 2: year with how many was it like nine or ten?

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Speaker 2: One score wins all the profile if you erase Patrick Mahomes,

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Speaker 2: Andy Reid, all the stuff fits the profile of like

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Speaker 2: oh overperformer are gonna drop off the next year, like

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Speaker 2: all the things are there, but last year was the

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Speaker 2: rebuilding year, like they get back now for she Rice.

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Speaker 2: So I think it is a huge impact receiver they

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Speaker 2: get year twosy if you're worthy, Hollywood Brown Juju is back.

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Speaker 2: I think that we could set up maybe for more

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Speaker 2: of them Holmes MVP push this year with the receivers there,

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Speaker 2: Josh Simmons in the first round at left tackle or

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Speaker 2: Jaylon Moore who they sign in free agency. I don't know, man,

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Speaker 2: can we just get like a real left tackle to

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Speaker 2: protect packerck Mahomes? Is it just like the deal with

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Speaker 2: the Devil that we just can't give them a real

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Speaker 2: left tackle? But the floor of the interior offensive line,

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Speaker 2: the coaching staff and then just Pat Mahomes eighty nine

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Speaker 2: and twenty three career, thirteen and a half win pace,

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Speaker 2: seven seasons, seven conference championships. I know about the obvious

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Speaker 2: downfalls of what like the profile looks like if you

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Speaker 2: have never missed the conference championship. I'm not picking you

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Speaker 2: to miss the playoffs if it happens, So it goes

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Speaker 2: anything else to say about the Chiefs here.

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Speaker 1: I think the division's overrated.

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Speaker 3: I think you're gonna get a lot of buzz about

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Speaker 3: the Chargers and about the Broncos, like can they challenge.

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs for the division? I really don't think so.

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Speaker 3: You know, both of those teams really benefited. Like one

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Speaker 3: thing we don't talk about enough is like just how

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Speaker 3: top heavy the AFC has been the last few years.

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Speaker 3: And what that has meant is that like the difference

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Speaker 3: between a first place schedule that Kansas City plays and

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Speaker 3: like the second and third and fourth place schedules that

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Speaker 3: the Chargers in Denver got to play last year just

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Speaker 3: meant that the schedule differences were massive.

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Speaker 1: And the Chargers in Denver.

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Speaker 3: Got to the playoffs, you know, lost in Round one

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Speaker 3: on the road, but got to the playoffs, which was

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Speaker 3: a step four for both franchises. But they didn't beat

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Speaker 3: anybody really competent in the whole season except for the

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Speaker 3: Chargers beating Denver. So I still think they're a clear

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Speaker 3: step behind. Like, do I think the Chargers could pick

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Speaker 3: off a game from the Chiefs. Sure, but I really

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Speaker 3: think that the Chiefs are still heading shoulders above and

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Speaker 3: you know, maybe they'll have a slow start and we

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Speaker 3: get to do like our patented bet the Chiefs to

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Speaker 3: win the AFC West at better odds Week four than

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Speaker 3: we got preseason again, because that's been a tried and

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Speaker 3: true method, not last year, but two years, three years prior.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, not much more to say there. So

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Speaker 2: we have the top I think the consensus top three

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks in the league are in the AFC. We've taken

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Speaker 2: two of them. Are you taking the third one? As

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Speaker 2: our other lock on playoff team in the AFC.

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Speaker 3: I probably would have taken Baltimore before I took Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: No, I wouldn't, if that's a lie.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I think if you just took a full

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Speaker 3: depth chart of the entire NFL, I actually think you

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Speaker 3: could make a case that Baltimore is the most complete roster.

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Speaker 3: And what we saw from the Ravens post defensive shuffle

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Speaker 3: last season was all around some of the best football.

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Speaker 3: Now there is some noise in the data, and I

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Speaker 3: know that a lot of people will come on and

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Speaker 3: talk about how great their defense was post Hamilton change versus.

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Speaker 1: Pre The schedule also got a lot easier.

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Speaker 3: They got to play the Browns the corpse of the

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Speaker 3: Steelers towards the end of last season, But it was

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Speaker 3: also an entirely new staff.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't just they lost Mike McDonald.

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Speaker 3: They had to replace Mike McDonald and everybody under Mike

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Speaker 3: McDonald that left in that group. So I think there

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Speaker 3: was a natural kind of down period that had had

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Speaker 3: certainly happened for the Ravens. But this year they look

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Speaker 3: like a really complete roster. And so as Lamar is healthy,

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Speaker 3: and I guess inherently he's the biggest injury risk of

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Speaker 3: the three. With Josh and Pat, I just don't really

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Speaker 3: think it's all that interesting to pick against any of

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Speaker 3: those three teams. And it's tough because we can go

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Speaker 3: back to last season. The final four in the AFC

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Speaker 3: was the same two years in a row. It was

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Speaker 3: Buffalo can they switched the match us, but it was Buffalo,

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Speaker 3: Kaysas City, Houston in Baltimore, and five of the seven

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Speaker 3: teams in the AFC that were in the playoffs two

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Speaker 3: years ago, we were in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Again last year.

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Speaker 3: And you can make a convincing case like this is

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Speaker 3: a much harder exercise in the AFC trying to figure

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Speaker 3: out who's not going to make it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. The only reason for me that Baltimore

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Speaker 2: is third of these three and we'll move on past

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Speaker 2: this after this, But I agree Baltimore has the clearly

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Speaker 2: to me, the best roster of the three. It to

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Speaker 2: me just comes down to at the end of the day,

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Speaker 2: rosters or not. We're not gonna pick Patrick Mahomes or

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to miss the playoffs and

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Speaker 2: less of course, one of them misses a month with injury.

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Speaker 2: And of those three, history tells us, play style tells

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Speaker 2: us Lamar is the biggest injury threat. That's just reality

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Speaker 2: of what we're seeing. So to me, the best roster

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Speaker 2: goes to third just because Lamar can take an injury.

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Speaker 2: Do you know who Lamar Jackson's backup is right now

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Speaker 2: going into the season.

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Speaker 1: I know our old friend Snoop isn't there anymore. So

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Speaker 1: actually even.

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Speaker 2: No longer mister pro Bowl himself, snoopont Ley, it's Cooper Rush.

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Speaker 2: That does not inspire.

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Speaker 1: Oh right, that's right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like he was competent for he was competent, but

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Speaker 2: it's a YO. Yeah, I don't know. It's a different

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Speaker 2: play style obviously, as anyone would be from Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 2: The special teams has long been a high floor Baltimore thing.

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Speaker 2: They were bottom ten DVA last year. Justin Tucker finally

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Speaker 2: is gone. That's obviously a whole thing there is. It's

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Speaker 2: an Olderish roster somewhat on the defense. Special teams floor

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Speaker 2: is a little lower. There is a little bit shake

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Speaker 2: year foundation in some ways. But Zach Orr defensively year two.

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Speaker 2: I'm excited to see what that means for them. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: I believe in the coaching staff and the Ravens over

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Speaker 2: theres have been so steady. So those are the three

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Speaker 2: I guess too, all of the three teams you mentioned

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Speaker 2: with the Chiefs their division not necessarily being as big

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Speaker 2: of a threat. We'll see who we get to as

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Speaker 2: far as teams making the playoffs from not making it

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Speaker 2: last year, but I think the Ravens potentially have the

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Speaker 2: biggest threats in the division at least to take a

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Speaker 2: couple of games off of them and make it a

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Speaker 2: little bit harder into the mix of things, well, I

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Speaker 2: think just for me, nitpicking between those three. The Lamar

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Speaker 2: injury factor, the Baltimore Division is why I would have

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Speaker 2: them third of the group. Anything else to add on

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Speaker 2: the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: Well, you mentioned the division.

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Speaker 3: They do get Cleveland early, which I actually think is

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Speaker 3: you'd prefer to play Cleveland late. Yeah, so you know

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Speaker 3: if because if this blows up, like it's more likely

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Speaker 3: to blow up and then you play you're playing against

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Speaker 3: like Lukishad or Dylan Gabriel Tank. Yeah, who knows by

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Speaker 3: the end of the season. I know that you've already

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Speaker 3: bet the Steelers in Week fourteen in Baltimore, They're gonna

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Speaker 3: be plus seven and a half. You'll be on them

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Speaker 3: in that game, so you know they'll split. Like, they're

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Speaker 3: just more likely to drop division games just because of

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Speaker 3: the way that division plays history.

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Speaker 1: And also like very clearly the closest.

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Speaker 3: Challenger to this kind of top three four is a

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Speaker 3: team whose T shirt wearing right now, which is the Bengals,

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Speaker 3: so and like they're in that division. So the other

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Speaker 3: the fourth super Saiyan quarterback, who I think is the

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Speaker 3: clear fourth, but we could debate that at another time,

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Speaker 3: is there. So this is where it gets more fun.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to draft the Texans fourth, okay, because I

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Speaker 3: really can't get there on any of the other AFC

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Speaker 3: South teams. I want to like if Richardson were healthy,

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Speaker 3: with Anna Rumo coming in to replace the corpse of

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Speaker 3: Gus Bradley, my Colts would be a really interesting team

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Speaker 3: because when Richardson played last year, for all the jokes

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Speaker 3: about completion percentage, they were not a bad offense. But

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Speaker 3: he's already got his shoulder issue and I don't think

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Speaker 3: he can hold up for a full season as currently constructed.

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Speaker 3: And Jacksonville is really interesting, and I suspect we'll have

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Speaker 3: a lot of buzz because of Travis Hunter, because of

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Speaker 3: Liam Cohen, and I understand all that, but their defense

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Speaker 3: was the worst in the NFL at tackling last year,

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Speaker 3: like worse than the Panthers, and the personnel is still

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Speaker 3: pretty shaky to me on that front.

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Speaker 1: I think they could be a special offense.

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Speaker 3: We've been saying that about Trevor Lawrence teams for how

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Speaker 3: long now, and so I just went around the thing

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Speaker 3: and I settled on I am very confident that Houston

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Speaker 3: is a top five defense in the NFL. And I

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Speaker 3: know defense is hard to predict, but I'm like personnel, scheme, coaching.

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Speaker 3: I'm very confident in what that defense can be. And

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Speaker 3: you know, I'm still kind of on the fence about

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Speaker 3: Stroud and like where he sits in like the list

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Speaker 3: of quarterbacks, if you were to rank them out one

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Speaker 3: to thirty two, I think we've seen highs. We've seen

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Speaker 3: some really inconsistent play, We've seen some sack issues that

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Speaker 3: have developed. But the reality is that when Nico Collins

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Speaker 3: is on the field, they're a pretty productive duo. And

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Speaker 3: if they're able to fix the O line they move

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Speaker 3: on from slowick. Then there is a ceiling there, but

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Speaker 3: again just the floor of which I think we kind

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Speaker 3: of saw the worst of Stroud last year. Plus this

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Speaker 3: defense is high enough that I just trust them to

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Speaker 3: win this division.

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362
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Speaker 2: close on the Texans. I have the Texans out just

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Speaker 2: mostly because we got to pick six teams to mess

364
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Speaker 2: and we needed to pick six teams or six teams

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Speaker 2: to come in, and in the AFC, its hard to

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Speaker 2: find both of those actually, to say, Okay, who can

367
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,360
Speaker 2: come in that wasn't there last year. I don't really

368
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Speaker 2: see a lot of change in this conference, and quite frankly,

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Speaker 2: this division where I don't really feel feel like the

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Speaker 2: Texans were even good last year. They just played in

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Speaker 2: the division where everyone else was terrible. They had plus

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Speaker 2: zero point differential minus zero as far as I'm concerned,

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Speaker 2: I know they crushed the Chargers in the playoffs, but

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Speaker 2: all year long we were looking for spots to fade

375
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Speaker 2: the Texans. They're just weren't spots to fade the Texans

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Speaker 2: because the division was terrible. So I kind of did

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Speaker 2: the same process you did. Okay, I'm ready to fade

378
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 2: the Texans. Great, what do we got?

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00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 3: All?

380
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:44,400
Speaker 2: Right? Cam Ward and the Titans? No, don't want that, right.

381
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:49,720
Speaker 2: How about Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco? And wait is

382
00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:51,919
Speaker 2: that no? Not Joe Flacco. He's on a different team now.

383
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones and draft Daniel Jones. That's right,

384
00:19:56,280 --> 00:20:00,119
Speaker 2: pass don't need that. Okay, Well, spoilerer to where my

385
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 2: pick will come from. I guess Jacksonville will come back

386
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 2: to that. I agree Houston's defense gives them a pretty

387
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Speaker 2: high floor. I really like the CJ. Gardner Johnson pick

388
00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:11,480
Speaker 2: up for them, just as a safety, kind of a

389
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 2: weapon at the back of Demiico Ryan's defense. You get Tomko,

390
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 2: you get Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter up front. Just

391
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,320
Speaker 2: lots to like there, and frankly, it's hard to think

392
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 2: their offense can really be much worse than last year exactly.

393
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Speaker 2: I don't really know. Nick Keyley is the new coordinator.

394
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,520
Speaker 2: I haven't done my coaching deep dive yet. The one

395
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:35,360
Speaker 2: thing that could make it worse, Laramie Tunsel is gone, and.

396
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Speaker 1: The most.

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Speaker 2: He was best. It is like a top bottom ten,

398
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 2: bottom five ish offensive line potentially, and we saw Nico

399
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 2: get hurt. Nico's awesome. I don't know about the other receivers,

400
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 2: Christian Kirk, I can kind of get on board with that.

401
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,920
Speaker 2: If Nico is healthy. Jane Higgins Round two, Tank Delp.

402
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,160
Speaker 2: I assume we're gonna get not much of, if anything,

403
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 2: this season. Nick Chobb. I don't know, like that's where

404
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 2: we're kind of drafting fantasy running backs with Joe Mixon

405
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:07,919
Speaker 2: and Nick Chobb. I don't really see a lot of

406
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 2: explosion if the line is not great and Stroud is

407
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 2: closer to year two Stroud than year one Stroud. Again,

408
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 2: I think this is about what they were last year.

409
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 2: I think they will be a better version of a

410
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 2: five hundred ish club, and I just need somebody in

411
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:25,880
Speaker 2: the division to step up. I don't feel strongly pushing

412
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Speaker 2: them out. I just needed somebody, So I'm pushing Houston out.

413
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Speaker 2: I have one other AFC playoff team in I'm gonna

414
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 2: keep the Chargers. I feel like I'm gonna buy the

415
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,920
Speaker 2: Jim Harbaugh floor. Effectively, he's had eleven wins or more

416
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 2: and four of his five NFL seasons, even the bad

417
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:47,120
Speaker 2: season was a five hundred season. We keep talking about

418
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks. I'll take Justin Herbert, like I'm happy to

419
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 2: have Herbert. I don't know if he's quite in that

420
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,359
Speaker 2: top three, top four, Joe Burr, whatever the ranges, but

421
00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 2: he's certainly next among the list and could break into

422
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 2: that group. Still. They start three and three. Last year,

423
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 2: they finish eleven and six. From there, they were basically

424
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 2: in every game except for one. Again, I don't love

425
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Speaker 2: Greg Roman, but we kind of know that the high

426
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 2: floor is there. We did see the offense become more passing,

427
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Speaker 2: more justin Herbert vehicle as a season went on. I

428
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:26,440
Speaker 2: like that. I like adding Amaron Hampton and Najie Harris. Yeah,

429
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 2: not that excited about him, but I feel like we

430
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 2: knew they want to run the ball. Now they got

431
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,959
Speaker 2: some running backs they actually want. They bring in Makaie

432
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Speaker 2: backt In all right, probably not gonna be as good

433
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 2: as he was with Eagles, but you added something onto

434
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,160
Speaker 2: the line. I thought Lenn McConkie was really good last year.

435
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 2: I'm not like excited about the Chargers. I just feel

436
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 2: like in the AFC, once we got past those three

437
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:54,680
Speaker 2: four definite teams, we need three wild cards in the AFC,

438
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 2: and right now, I had a really hard time coming

439
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 2: out with wild cards. So I don't necessarily say, oh, yeah,

440
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 2: the charge are ready to take down the Chiefs. But

441
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 2: to me, among wild card options, they were a relatively

442
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 2: easy choice for me.

443
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with the floor.

444
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 3: I mean I think that, like Harbaugh gives them a

445
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 3: baseline level of competency, and we'll say toughness in quotation marks,

446
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 3: because like, I think that stuff can be kind of

447
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 3: hard to quantify or hard to like really understand. People

448
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,239
Speaker 3: only talk about it usually after the fact, right, But

449
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 3: Harbaugh has enough of a track record that you would

450
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,479
Speaker 3: trust him. But they didn't really do much to like

451
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 3: in the offseason. That's the scary thing. It's like we

452
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 3: all knew what the obvious flaw was, and they didn't

453
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 3: really address the flaw to.

454
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 1: The extent that they should have.

455
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 3: Like it's just like, can you get more than one

456
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,160
Speaker 3: player that can catch passes so that Lad McCaughey doesn't

457
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 3: have to have fourteen receptions in a playoff game that

458
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 3: you lose by double digits, so that when teams just

459
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:56,199
Speaker 3: blit and play man behind it, you can't beat that

460
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 3: in any way, shape or form, which is basically what

461
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,679
Speaker 3: Houston did. I mean, I think a lot about this

462
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 3: Chargers team and how like they're kind of missing a

463
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 3: window here and I'm not really sure why they're not building.

464
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 3: Maybe that's just the hobbar team building philosophy. They want

465
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 3: to keep building through the line. Sure, you know, new

466
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,880
Speaker 3: running back comes in, Okay, that might add some explosiveness

467
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 3: because they were certainly lacking that towards the end of

468
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 3: last season. But you know, it's like it is a

469
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,159
Speaker 3: first round, like a big running back addition going to

470
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 3: change what you think of the Chargers going forward. Like

471
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,360
Speaker 3: I'm kind of dubious about this whole situation with them,

472
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:33,640
Speaker 3: but I think I kept them in too, and since

473
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 3: we had to do six, my NFC is going to

474
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 3: look a little bit different.

475
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: It's so funny because like.

476
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:43,880
Speaker 3: My my zag team that I had planned, and I'm

477
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 3: thinking about maybe he's going against the grain and it's

478
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 3: just buying Pittsburgh again, hm, because I looked at I

479
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 3: looked at their plus one fifty to make the playoffs,

480
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 3: and I'm like, I mean, how many how many years

481
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 3: in a row are we going to do this thing

482
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 3: with Tomlin? And like very obviously even Washed Rogers is

483
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 3: better quarterback play than they got most of this decade

484
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 3: when they also made the playoffs. And we know that

485
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 3: Watt is nearing like the declining phase of his career,

486
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 3: but he was also injured last season in the second half,

487
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 3: which definitely contributed to him not being as good. So

488
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 3: I really wanted to put Pittsburgh in here because I

489
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 3: kind of think that's the zag. But for this exercise,

490
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:23,199
Speaker 3: they were in the playoffs the last two years, so

491
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 3: I can't use.

492
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 1: Them as one of my change teams.

493
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 3: And so this is where I really struggled to come

494
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 3: up with, like who my next team is? So I

495
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:35,160
Speaker 3: will take everybody's favorite Cincinnati Bengals.

496
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 1: I think that.

497
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 3: This defensive personnel there is a there's an inherent kind

498
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 3: of survivorship bias to the Bengals defense, where eventually you

499
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 3: have all these bad players and you suck for a

500
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 3: really long time, but eventually you find just enough good players,

501
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 3: you keep them around, and then defenses naturally regress to

502
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 3: the mean because you just find enough okay to good players,

503
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 3: you get a decent scheme in there, and all of

504
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 3: a sudden, a really bad defense just becomes a generally

505
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 3: bad defense. But I don't know, man like that the

506
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 3: personnel looks just as bad right now. I mean, we

507
00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:23,400
Speaker 3: all like land Rumo, he leaves, Golden comes in. I

508
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 3: like Golden as a defensive coordinator. But like, at a

509
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 3: certain point, it's not always about the ex's and the o's.

510
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 3: You don't have the Jimmy's and the Joe's So the

511
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 3: Bengals defense looks still really bad on paper. But what

512
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 3: we know and what remains true, is that the most

513
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 3: predictive thing about you know, the NFL football in twenty

514
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 3: twenty five and twenty twenty two and twenty twenty one,

515
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 3: basically the last fifteen years, how good is your offense.

516
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 3: We know that the Bengals offense with those three guys

517
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 3: will be one of the ten best in the league.

518
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 3: And so I have to pick them here. There's no

519
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 3: other option, and they missed last year. So it's a

520
00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 3: it's a free change. It's like a free It's like

521
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 3: free park monopoly.

522
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't even really have a lot to add

523
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,199
Speaker 2: to that with the Bengals. I agree with all that,

524
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 2: including like, all right, well we needed to mix something

525
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 2: up in the AFC, let's pick the freeb outcome there

526
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 2: nine wins or more in four straight seasons. They finished

527
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,640
Speaker 2: the year on a five game winning streak, missed the playoffs.

528
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 2: You know, the proverbial team nobody wants to play. I

529
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 2: guess what nobody had to play them, because I guess

530
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 2: the thing to say here maybe is I don't think

531
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 2: I want to be betting on Bengals futures right now,

532
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 2: how about just wait after the first month because they

533
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 2: don't show up in September any year they start zero

534
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 2: to three last year, to come out of that gets

535
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 2: cold year after year. I don't know if that's a

536
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow thing, or if that's a team mentality thing

537
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 2: or whatever. It is, like this is a team routinely

538
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 2: now to let them do their thing like play around

539
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 2: in their preseason season games and then invest later and

540
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:54,400
Speaker 2: buy the playoff bump after that. Yeah, the offense last

541
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 2: year when T and Chase were on the field was awesome,

542
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 2: was like unstoppable with both those guys out there. I'm

543
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 2: not even really the biggest T Higgins fan, but it's undeniable.

544
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 2: The numbers when he and Chase were out there, like

545
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 2: Chase was unbelievable. In those games had just some of

546
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 2: like ungodly lines. T had monster numbers. I don't think

547
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 2: most of us thought we're going to see that again.

548
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 2: We were expecting a lot of us that T Higgins

549
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 2: would be gone from this team, and they were like, well,

550
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 2: you know, what if not, what if we just run

551
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 2: it back again? So I share the same concerns. I

552
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,439
Speaker 2: don't really know. If I love the defense on this team,

553
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 2: I hope the young corne exactly exactly came much worse.

554
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 2: I like don A Romo, but you know, maybe you

555
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 2: just see a new voice. The corners are young, maybe

556
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 2: get a little better. Trey Hendrickson I thought was like

557
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 2: a DPOI candidate, so he can be worse. So that's

558
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 2: a little scary when you're one good player can really

559
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 2: only get worse. But yeah, I think we know offense

560
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 2: defense wins championships is maybe a thing like in the

561
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 2: actual Super Bowl game. Offense makes playoffs. Quarterbacks star quarterbacks

562
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 2: make playoffs. So yeah, to me, Bengals, Chargers, it's kind

563
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 2: of a similar floor situation for making the playoffs. So

564
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 2: you're at six playoff teams now. So both of us

565
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 2: have Jeeves, Bill's Ravens in. That's an easy trio. We

566
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 2: both have Chargers in, so that's four. I've got Bengals

567
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 2: in as well, so that's five we're agreeing on. You

568
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 2: have Texans in, So let me come back to my team.

569
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 2: I'm replacing the Texans with which we kind of know

570
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 2: by now, and then we've got one last one. So well,

571
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 2: I'll comment to on the Steelers because you kind of

572
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 2: talked about Steelers and I'll do Jaguars together here. So

573
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 2: Jacksonville for me is my Houston replacement with not a

574
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 2: heavy amount of confidence here, but I needed somebody to

575
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 2: replace the Texans. And yeah, it's all the stuff that

576
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 2: you said about where's the hype training gonna come from?

577
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 2: It's the stuff I like. It's Liam Cullen. I'm excited

578
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 2: about that. Grant Udinsky and Anthony Campanil. I guess is

579
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 2: that how we say it. I haven't learned of that

580
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 2: name yet. Where is he from? Do you know his name?

581
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 1: Tapaniel?

582
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 2: Yeah?

583
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, well he I mean, first of all a fellow Paison,

584
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 3: which is a big part of this. But his I

585
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 3: think it's brother is on the Syracuse staff as well.

586
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: Oh but I mean it can't get worse.

587
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 3: It's kind of where I'm at on the defensive situation

588
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 3: because like last year, I.

589
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 1: Was a bit of a Jags hyper.

590
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 3: I picked them to win the division because again, I

591
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 3: think we all looked at going into last season, we

592
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 3: were like, I mean, the same discussion we had about

593
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 3: Houston going into last year was like, Okay, they stuck

594
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 3: around with this coaching staff, the slow situation.

595
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 1: We knew that wasn't good.

596
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 3: We could all look at their early down numbers, how

597
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 3: unsustainable all it was, and we were like, Okay, maybe

598
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 3: it'll be better. But then the coordinator hires Neilson was

599
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 3: so bad defensively, Like I remember watching the Buffalo game

600
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 3: the Monday night of like week three, and I bet

601
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 3: the Jags and I was like, are they going to

602
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 3: do anything different here? Can they tackle? Can they stop

603
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 3: playing man? Could they stop getting crushed on everything? I

604
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 3: think the Bill scored a touchdown on their first five

605
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 3: possessions and it was like thirty five to three. He

606
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 3: was under Jeff Hafley in Green Bay.

607
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 1: They they made real improvements last year. They you know,

608
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 1: we're a team.

609
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 3: This is the I think the thing that I struggle

610
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 3: with the most when it comes to handicap in the

611
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 3: NFL is like trying to understand who all of these

612
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 3: coaches are and if any of them are good or not.

613
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 3: It's really hard to do because you're always that the

614
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,880
Speaker 3: product of like the talent around you in the system,

615
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 3: and you're trying to figure out who's good and who's not.

616
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 3: And even the people who are quote unquote insiders who

617
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 3: are plugged in with the league. They don't even know

618
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 3: at the time, because you know, they're just talking, and

619
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 3: a lot of that comes down like, oh, I really

620
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 3: like that guy. Maybe I feel like it personally, but

621
00:31:57,960 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 3: is he good at his job? So there's all kinds

622
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 3: of of hard things to do and trying to predict

623
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 3: this this dumb league we bet on, but nothing I

624
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 3: think is harder than trying to figure out if these

625
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 3: first time coordinators are going to be any good or not.

626
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, looking at Jacksonville versus Houston, it's a

627
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 2: lot of not really mirror image, but there are a

628
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 2: lot of similarities. I don't love the offensive line in

629
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 2: Jacksonville certainly definitely has not been good and they haven't

630
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 2: really done a lot to improve it. So that's similar

631
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 2: to Houston. I think it's interesting looking at obviously we

632
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 2: know a little bit more about CJ. Stroud and Nico Collins.

633
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 2: Would you rather have Stroud Collins on your team or

634
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,719
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas for this just next season?

635
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 1: You also get Travis Hunter.

636
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 2: Though I know I know, but I'm just giving you

637
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:43,479
Speaker 2: the time you would take.

638
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 1: I would take one hundred percent Collins.

639
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 2: Okay, because Collins is the better star receiver for sure,

640
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 2: but Brian Thomas is coming, and like you said, you

641
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 2: get Travis Hunter, and I guess I kind of hate this,

642
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 2: but I guess I'm kind of buying into the Travis

643
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 2: Hunter X factor of it all of like, well, maybe

644
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 2: he can be the second reason receiver that kind of

645
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 2: comes around, and maybe he's the guy I do you know,

646
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 2: if he I'd love to see a little more corner

647
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 2: from him, to be honest, but I think that makes

648
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 2: me a little more excited about the defense. Comparing Houston

649
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 2: and Jacksonville is tough because, Okay, the quarterback receiver combo

650
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 2: until you're adding down the list, probably slight favorite to Houston.

651
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 2: The offensive lines are both bad but probably slight favorite

652
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 2: to Houston. And the defense is a huge gap and

653
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 2: a clear Houston choice. So how do you pick Jacksonville. Well,

654
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 2: I just think the gap is probably smaller than what

655
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 2: is implied by some of the numbers in the books

656
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 2: right now. And I don't even get a Jacksonville last

657
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 2: play schedule because they finished third because the Titans were terrible,

658
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 2: so I didn't get help with the last place in

659
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 2: the schedule. That didn't help either I at least get

660
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 2: help from Houston has the first play schedule, which in

661
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 2: the AFC means you got games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh

662
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 2: or not Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Buffalo, and Kansas City obviously, so

663
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 2: I'll take that Houston did not play well in its

664
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 2: top opponent games last year. But yeah, to me, this

665
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 2: is like a I don't know, I was gonna say

666
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,879
Speaker 2: fifty to forty, not even that in this division because

667
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 2: it's its lower confidences, like a forty thirty situation, and

668
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 2: I would put Houston the higher number probably, but for

669
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 2: this exercise, I'll go with Jacksonville. You talk about Pittsburgh,

670
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 2: I also have the Steelers missing the playoffs, so that's

671
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 2: our first agreed team that was in last year out

672
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 2: this year. I just feel like it's hard to imagine

673
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 2: how Aaron Rodgers is gonna fit a Steelers team culture.

674
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 2: Like you and I have watched, we know exactly what

675
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 2: the Steelers are our entire life, and they are the

676
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 2: opposite of all things. Aaron Rodgers particularly, I don't like

677
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 2: the fit with Arthur Smith at all at all, Like

678
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 2: I don't understand how that's gonna work. I feel like

679
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 2: can can I take the over under like week six

680
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 2: and a half when Arthur Smith is gone from the team.

681
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 2: I don't see that lasting at all. He doesn't fit

682
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 2: his style at all. TG a Lot and Cam Hayward

683
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 2: are awesome, but can't do the thing forever. Aaron Rodgers

684
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 2: is ancient and only fourteen to twenty one in the

685
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 2: last three years. I just think what more fitting away

686
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 2: for Aaron Rodgers to cap his career than to finally

687
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 2: be the guy to and the Mike Tomlin five hundred streak.

688
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:21,240
Speaker 2: We didn't know how it could happen. How could another

689
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,280
Speaker 2: team finally take them down? Has to be from the inside.

690
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 2: It has to be Aaron Rodgers. So I don't know.

691
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,359
Speaker 2: I agree with you on the zag thing. If they

692
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 2: if they didn't miss last year, to be like, yeah,

693
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 2: you know, the defense will be pretty good. The floor

694
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 2: is there. The AFC has some spots open, but for

695
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 2: this exercise, as a team that was in the playoffs,

696
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 2: I think they're a relatively easy pick to miss. The

697
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 2: only team left that made last year's playoffs that we

698
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 2: haven't talked about yet is the Denver Broncos. Do you

699
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 2: hear the Broncos in or out out?

700
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 1: I suspect they will make me poor.

701
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 3: They have a their at risk of impoverishing me this

702
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 3: season because I could not be lower on this team.

703
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 1: I get it, Like their defense was really good last year.

704
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 3: Bo Nicks did the job Capital T Capital J but

705
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 3: like the job was not particularly inspiring in terms of

706
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 3: his long term prospects. To me, I don't understand why

707
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,479
Speaker 3: everybody loves Denver so much as like.

708
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 1: The leap team either. I think like, if you had.

709
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 3: Sold me on Denver being the Leap team, it was

710
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 3: that they went out and got some like top end

711
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:40,359
Speaker 3: receiver to turn this offense into more of a multi

712
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 3: dimensional unit.

713
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 1: They didn't really do that. They're kind of just rolling

714
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 1: with what they have here.

715
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 3: And the case is the defense is going to dramatically

716
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 3: overperform our expectations. Again, they were not seen as an

717
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 3: above average defense going into last season. And how many

718
00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 3: times have we seen this before where the team comes

719
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 3: out of nowhere to be a great defense. They force

720
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,799
Speaker 3: all these turnovers, they do all this crazy, crazy shit.

721
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 3: We're like, wow, look at the Broncos. Okay, let's also

722
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 3: look at the Broncos. They got their brains beat in

723
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 3: in the playoffs by Buffalo. They got demolished by Baltimore.

724
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 3: They lost both of their games to the Chargers. They yes,

725
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 3: there was some hilarious things that happened at the end

726
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 3: of the game, but they lost to the Bengals in

727
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 3: a spot where they needed to win to clinch. When

728
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 3: everybody beat the Bengals in a close game last year,

729
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 3: the one team that couldn't do it was Denver. And

730
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:37,360
Speaker 3: so you know, I look at this Denver team and

731
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:38,919
Speaker 3: I'm just going to list all the teams they beat

732
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 3: last year. Kansas City, when everybody rested Indianapolis in that

733
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 3: hilarious Jonathan Taylor dropped the ball game, Cleveland in the

734
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 3: Jamis Pick six Extravaganza. Vegas, they beat Atlanta and what

735
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 3: I think was Kirk Cousins is either last or second

736
00:37:56,880 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 3: to last start. They beat Carolina by two Touchdow they

737
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 3: beat New Orleans and the Rattler in that all time

738
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 3: classic on Thursday Night Football.

739
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 1: They beat Vegas.

740
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 3: In Week five, they beat the Jets ten to nine,

741
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 3: and they had an impressive win against Tampa.

742
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:14,879
Speaker 1: Those were there, Those were their wins last year.

743
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 3: Like, yes, the schedule is not even that bad this year,

744
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:23,800
Speaker 3: but it is better. They will have more tough games.

745
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 3: You know, they play the NFC East, which I think

746
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,799
Speaker 3: Dallas will be an improved team. The Eagles are still

747
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 3: the Eagles. Washington, if Daniels is healthy, will be in

748
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 3: the mix. So it's a tougher cross, right. You don't

749
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 3: get to play the NFC South this year, which is

750
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 3: honestly like a huge difference.

751
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 2: It's true.

752
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 3: And if you're if you're looking at futures and you're

753
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 3: looking at like this AFC, who gets to play the

754
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 3: NFC South is like a big difference compared to the

755
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:47,800
Speaker 3: other three divisions in the NFC.

756
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 1: And Denver does not get that luxury.

757
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 3: None of the AFC West gets that luxury, which I

758
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:56,319
Speaker 3: think inflated all of their records last year.

759
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 1: And so I have Denver out.

760
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:01,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm totally in agreement with you here. I thought

761
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 2: they had an absolute fraudulent profile last year. I'm so

762
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 2: grateful that Denver got blown out in their one playoff

763
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 2: game because I was just like loading up on when

764
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 2: do I get to fade Denver the heck out of

765
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 2: the playoffs? And I was so afraid we're gonna get

766
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 2: one more fraudulent performance, and like some stupid goofy backdoor

767
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 2: cover something. Thankfully they were who I thought they.

768
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:26,800
Speaker 3: Were opening possession when they when they hit a sixty

769
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 3: yard touchdown, I was like, what.

770
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 1: Is going on?

771
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:32,319
Speaker 2: I was like, of course, of course all year two.

772
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: I mean I was at a wedding.

773
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 3: During the Raiders game that they won, when the Raiders

774
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 3: had first and goal with the one to cover and

775
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 3: d score. I had the Bengal, I had the Browns

776
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 3: and the Jamis game, and then I had the Colts

777
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 3: in the tailor game, and I like collapsed to my

778
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 3: knees in the living room at a football game watching that.

779
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 1: There's the amount of.

780
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,399
Speaker 3: Ways that they were just winning these games last year

781
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 3: was so preposterous. I will be the first man at

782
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 3: the door to be skeptical of Denver this year.

783
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 2: Yeah. If in our drafting order, if we were just

784
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 2: drafting highest confidence either direction, the Broncos, honestly, it might

785
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 2: have been my first pick, Like, like, if we could

786
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 2: draft in or out, I might have been almost as confident. No,

787
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 2: that's probably not true. The quarterbacks are true. Yeah no, no,

788
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 2: I mean of the seven returning teams from the playoffs,

789
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 2: is what I'm saying. But even still then not true.

790
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 2: Because we got to just bank on, you know, the

791
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 2: star quarterbacks making it. But I just this was a

792
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 2: very easy pick to the coaching thing. I understand, Like

793
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 2: we talked about coaching and floor, I'm not there on

794
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 2: this group, like Sean Payton is just a tier below

795
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 2: some of the other names we've talked about. I do

796
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 2: not have any faith in Joe Lombardi or especially Vance Joseph's.

797
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,919
Speaker 2: His defense has been very up and down, like they're

798
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 2: super aggressive and when it works, it looks great, and

799
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 2: when it doesn't work, it can get really ugly, as

800
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,760
Speaker 2: we saw in Arizona. I'm not a bow Knicks believer.

801
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 2: All I have not seen enough. I when I do

802
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 2: my quarterback rankings, can't imagine he'll be anything other than

803
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 2: like the twenty to twenty five, like the old Ryan

804
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,320
Speaker 2: Tannehill range before ran Tannehill actually became like a quality

805
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 2: quarterback late in the career of just like okay, you

806
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 2: can hand the ball off and like hit the occasional

807
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 2: sixty yard post if it's wide open. I just I

808
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 2: don't trust the floor here and I see zero ceiling

809
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 2: like the ceiling was last year they had a top

810
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 2: five defense and a top five special teams by DV Away.

811
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 2: That is a giant red flag to me. Those units

812
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 2: tend to regress to the mean just by definition over time.

813
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 2: So if you take the defense special teams away a

814
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 2: little bit, even just a touch, then the offense is

815
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot worse because they're really only just

816
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 2: kind of benefiting from the field position, from the turnovers,

817
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 2: all that stuff from there. So between that between Chargers, Chiefs,

818
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 2: and Division, even the Raiders should probably be at least

819
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 2: a little better than last year. Certainly not worth the

820
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:04,320
Speaker 2: last year. Yeah, Broncos out for me. We're almost there

821
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 2: to reset the AFC playoff pictures. Some real shocking decisions here, Chiefs,

822
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 2: Bill's Ravens all in for both of us. Chargers, the

823
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 2: wildcard teams stay in. Steelers and Broncos are gone. We

824
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 2: agreed on all of that. The only disagreement so far

825
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 2: was you kept the Texans in. I took them out

826
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 2: and replaced them with the Jaguars. We both put the

827
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:32,319
Speaker 2: Bengals in as a new playoff team. I had Jacksonville

828
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 2: in as a new team. We both have one slot left.

829
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 2: We got all the division winners. Ostensibly at least we

830
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:40,919
Speaker 2: have a division pick in each one which have one

831
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:44,280
Speaker 2: more wildcard. Who's your last team in in the AFC

832
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:44,879
Speaker 2: right now?

833
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 3: So I pull up the betting odds for playoffs just now.

834
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:55,319
Speaker 3: The New England Patriots are plus one fifty two. Now,

835
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:57,239
Speaker 3: if we just throw out the betting odds, I would

836
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 3: probably take New England. But there is a team in

837
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 3: the three to one range that has caught my eye,

838
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 3: and they are the autumnal win themselves, the Las Vegas Raiders. Okay,

839
00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 3: and I am very tempted to pick them.

840
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 1: I know.

841
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 3: I said that the division was overrated, and I think

842
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 3: that's still true, to be honest, mainly because of the

843
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:23,400
Speaker 3: second and the third team, and obviously the Chiefs have

844
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 3: a ton of regression indicators. But the main reason for

845
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:30,319
Speaker 3: the New England Patriots is the schedule. I mean, this

846
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 3: is a farce. I mean, if you haven't looked yet,

847
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:35,359
Speaker 3: just kind of read down the list the teams they play.

848
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 1: It's one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.

849
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 3: They get to play the NFC South, They get, of

850
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:41,879
Speaker 3: course the last place, which means they get the game

851
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 3: against Cleveland. They also get the Raiders in Week one,

852
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 3: which could be a pretty important one. Coming up here.

853
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 3: But I just don't think New England has any offensive

854
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 3: talent at all. And when you compare that to what

855
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 3: the Raiders have, at least in Bowers, I'm looking at

856
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:04,440
Speaker 3: a team that has like a proven quarterback playing.

857
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 1: In a dome.

858
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 3: We know, and I know this is a Geno where

859
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 3: a Geno podcast they add Genty to the mix, who

860
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 3: could be a really fun, like immediate plug and play guy.

861
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 3: Jacobe Myers is like, I might be better than everybody

862
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:17,759
Speaker 3: on the Patriots offense.

863
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:18,440
Speaker 2: At this point.

864
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:21,400
Speaker 3: And so you know, you look at Bowers, gent Myers

865
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 3: and Gino in a dome. Do I have questions about

866
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 3: the O line, Yes, but we've also seen Geno operate

867
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:33,960
Speaker 3: without a good O line for years. The defense, I

868
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:36,760
Speaker 3: have questions about the talent, especially on the back end, Yes,

869
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 3: but I actually think like they've done a decent job

870
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:41,359
Speaker 3: of playing above their talent level on defense the last

871
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 3: few years.

872
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 1: Uh.

873
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:48,400
Speaker 3: And so I I really want to pick the Raiders.

874
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 2: I did not have the Raiders like in my consideration here.

875
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 2: So let me make the case for the Patriots because

876
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 2: they're my pick, and I'm gonna give.

877
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 1: You totally makes sense.

878
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:02,759
Speaker 2: I just the Raiders year if I can win you. So,

879
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 2: so here's the case for the Patriots. How do the

880
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 2: Patriots could be this year's commanders? And not because of

881
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 2: the crazy fourth down conversion all that, not because Jane

882
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:18,239
Speaker 2: Daniel necessarily Washington last year winning the offseason with this

883
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 2: giant sum of money, and then we kind of came

884
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 2: away being like, oh, you just like signed like twenty

885
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:27,359
Speaker 2: veteran dudes that were just like, all right, money for you,

886
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 2: money for you. You can play offensive line, you can

887
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 2: be on the defense. And it turned out that just

888
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 2: raised the floor from an awful roster to like, okay,

889
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 2: a competent roster. We can hang in games now and

890
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:43,320
Speaker 2: actually give you a floor offensive line. Will Campbell was

891
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 2: the top offensive lineman in the draft. They had him,

892
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:50,480
Speaker 2: bringing Morgan Moses just a standard right tackle, Garrett Bradbury

893
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 2: at center. Just a competent offensive line, particularly the two

894
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 2: bookends and the guy snapping the ball to the center.

895
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 2: If I've got or snapping the ball to my young quarterback,

896
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:03,840
Speaker 2: if I got my year two quarterback, I want to

897
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 2: line that's gonna give him a chance. They have a

898
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 2: chance now. They were terrible last year. I agree. I

899
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 2: don't love the weapons offensively Travian Henderson in the draft. Okay,

900
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:16,720
Speaker 2: maybe I'm sort of intrigued by Kyle Williams at receiver

901
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:19,800
Speaker 2: from the draft I think more than ancient Stefan Diggs

902
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 2: at this point. I don't love it. Can Drake may

903
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 2: be Jaden Daniels, No, because Jane Daniels should have been

904
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:29,799
Speaker 2: a top five MVP candate last year, like he was

905
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,759
Speaker 2: so good. I really like Drake may I think he

906
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 2: could be in the right year with Josh McDaniels, who

907
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 2: I don't love but certainly has had success with the

908
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 2: right mix of guys. Get Drake on the move a

909
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 2: little bit, get him sort of doing his thing with

910
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:50,399
Speaker 2: a better team overall, and I think still too. This

911
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 2: was a defense that finished thirtieth in DVA last year,

912
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 2: but coming in they were in everyone's like top five

913
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 2: or ten coming in the season, even like number one

914
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 2: or two. There's so much talent here. And now they

915
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:04,359
Speaker 2: added Milton Williams, who he saw a great star run

916
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 2: with the Eagles. Carlton Davis I think is a fantastic

917
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:11,760
Speaker 2: corner and he's the second corner with Christian Izalez back healthy,

918
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 2: that is a nasty cornerback pair. If those guys stay healthy.

919
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,800
Speaker 2: They added some linebackers, there's already a lot of talent

920
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 2: on the roster. I was skeptical last year. I was

921
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 2: not a guy that had the Patriots top ten defense.

922
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:28,360
Speaker 2: So he was like, you know what, losing Bill Belichick,

923
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:31,920
Speaker 2: the greatest defensive mind ever in football, probably is going

924
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:34,359
Speaker 2: to make your defense worse. And it's probably gonna make

925
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:37,719
Speaker 2: some of these like weird weapons that don't fit anywhere else.

926
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 2: But New England weaponized them. Okay, great, Well now they

927
00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 2: don't have that anymore, but they do still have all

928
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:44,799
Speaker 2: the talent that's there, and they added a bunch of

929
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 2: talent and floor raising. To me, this is in the

930
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 2: right mix. Maybe a defense under Mike Rabel, we know again,

931
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 2: Rabel is floor to me. I don't know if I

932
00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 2: love the ceiling. I don't know if I love the

933
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:02,320
Speaker 2: long term direction that they'll go there. But just the

934
00:48:02,640 --> 00:48:07,240
Speaker 2: team culture, the mentality, the defense, like all that stuff

935
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 2: to raise them to To me, I called them last

936
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 2: Year's Commanders because of the way they added the guys everywhere,

937
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 2: and then maybe Drake may is the quarterback. Well, I

938
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 2: don't know, could they be a last year's Broncos Also, I.

939
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:22,520
Speaker 1: Was about to say that I was waiting for you.

940
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 3: I was waiting to interject there to say that they

941
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 3: have Broncos vibes where coaching has improved, and then all

942
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 3: of a sudden they're like sneaking in the playoffs at

943
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 3: nine to eight when they beat like one good team

944
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 3: all year. Yeah, and that's that's why the ads are

945
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 3: what they are, right right, Yeah.

946
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 2: I was. I was shocked to see the odds as

947
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 2: low as they were, because you know, me love my

948
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:47,240
Speaker 2: worst to first division winners. And I was like, okay,

949
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:49,719
Speaker 2: remember I came in wanting to fade Buffalo. That was

950
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:52,239
Speaker 2: my whole thought coming to the exercise. And I was like,

951
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 2: all right, the Patriots they're right there? Is that the one.

952
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm there yet. They're They're a

953
00:48:57,680 --> 00:49:00,800
Speaker 2: wild card pick for me here. You know, last year's

954
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 2: Broncos never ever ever threatened the division at all. They

955
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 2: just beat a bunch of terrible teams and made the playoffs.

956
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:10,560
Speaker 2: I'm gonna pick the Patriots to make the playoffs. I

957
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:11,960
Speaker 2: don't know if I need to bet it at plus

958
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,240
Speaker 2: one fifty like that is. I'm not getting any juice

959
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 2: for my money, certainly, not in June, but they're on

960
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 2: my radar for worse to first, I'm picking them at

961
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:24,200
Speaker 2: least to make Here, I'm giving you one more shot.

962
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 2: You haven't locked in your final pick here. Have I

963
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 2: won you over in the Patriots, or you're sticking with

964
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 2: the Raiders.

965
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 3: The autumn wind is a pirate blustering in from c

966
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:36,120
Speaker 3: I was stickled by Raiders.

967
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:37,759
Speaker 1: I just trust the offense more.

968
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 2: That's fair enough.

969
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 1: I think they have a generational offensive player.

970
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:45,720
Speaker 3: They have a quarterback who has proven he can operate

971
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 3: in really favorable conditions. He's had great indoor numbers all

972
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:54,239
Speaker 3: his career. Now he gets even better numbers there. And

973
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 3: you know, so much of the geno issues were in

974
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:59,719
Speaker 3: the red zone last year. Yes, some of that is

975
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 3: geno decision making, but also some of that could have

976
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:04,000
Speaker 3: been the play calling and the coordinator who got fired

977
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:06,440
Speaker 3: after one year and was not particularly well liked in Seattle.

978
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:12,040
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm sticking with with this team's offensive upside,

979
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 3: even though I think, yes, New England's defense should be better,

980
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:16,799
Speaker 3: the schedules easier. But yeah, if you if you gave

981
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 3: me two options, Raiders three to one or Pats plus

982
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:22,319
Speaker 3: one fifty I'm taking the autumn wind, all.

983
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:25,160
Speaker 2: Right, I see that. Before we wrap up, I need

984
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:27,759
Speaker 2: you just sell me a little bit. You said a

985
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 2: generational player on offense, and I was like, wait, Raiders,

986
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:33,239
Speaker 2: who I realized you must mean brock Bauers here. I'm

987
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 2: a little underwhelmed by. Like to me, he is a

988
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:40,560
Speaker 2: like receptions merchant. He is a dump offs merchant to me.

989
00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:42,920
Speaker 2: And I'll admit I did not watch a lot of

990
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 2: Raiders games closely down the stretch there that you're popping

991
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:48,640
Speaker 2: up in the red zone for me most of the time.

992
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 2: Sell me a little bit on brock Bowers as truly

993
00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 2: a generational prospect. That is who you meant there?

994
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:57,520
Speaker 3: Yes, well, he broke the rookie receptions and receiving yards

995
00:50:57,520 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 3: record for tight ends.

996
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 1: Yes, so that's what That's all I need.

997
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:04,640
Speaker 2: Mine's generational, I think.

998
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 3: So he was highly like huge pedigree going into college,

999
00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:11,400
Speaker 3: produced at every step of the way in college despite

1000
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 3: playing for like a defense first run the ball ball

1001
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:18,280
Speaker 3: control team, uh and then yeah and ninety four receiving

1002
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 3: yards as a rookie, the record was one hundred, the

1003
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:23,280
Speaker 3: record was eighty six.

1004
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:24,760
Speaker 1: He ended up with one to twelve.

1005
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:28,840
Speaker 3: So just like shotters, the receptions record, Yeah, but that

1006
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:33,799
Speaker 3: you know, that's inherently valuable for for an offense. So yeah,

1007
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 3: I mean sure like he could take a step back,

1008
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 3: probably won't break the record again, but I think he

1009
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 3: could have another thousand yard season.

1010
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair. I think I sort of processed him

1011
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:46,399
Speaker 2: as when we see, you know, I'm still an NBA

1012
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 2: in mind. Over here, we see like a rookie go

1013
00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 2: to a bad team and just get a lot of

1014
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 2: shots up. I feel like Bower's got a lot of

1015
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 2: shots up, and that doesn't always necessarily translate to you

1016
00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 2: being a star later on in a better team. But you know,

1017
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:03,360
Speaker 2: when you're breaking records and you're getting one fourteen or

1018
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 2: whatever it was to eighty six, is not just a

1019
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:07,800
Speaker 2: lot of shots up, but you are crushing the record.

1020
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:10,319
Speaker 2: You're beating it by like you know, thirty catches at

1021
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 2: that point is not nothing, and volume is important the

1022
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 2: NFL also, so I can buy that all.

1023
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:15,799
Speaker 1: Right.

1024
00:52:16,120 --> 00:52:20,280
Speaker 2: To wrap up here is our shocking discoveries today. Chiefs playoffs,

1025
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 2: Bills playoffs, Ravens playoffs. We kept them all in. We

1026
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:25,920
Speaker 2: kept the Chargers in, We knocked out the Steelers and

1027
00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:28,239
Speaker 2: the Broncos we both agreed on all of those things.

1028
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:32,880
Speaker 2: We brought the Bengals back in. We disagreed on the Texans.

1029
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 2: You kept the Texans in. I replaced them with the Jaguars,

1030
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 2: and then a little fun at the end, we needed

1031
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:42,399
Speaker 2: one more playoff team each. Da Bundo brought the Raiders

1032
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:45,520
Speaker 2: into the playoffs. I'm gonna go with the Patriots as

1033
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 2: my last wildcard team. Du Bundo. I know you're at

1034
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:51,560
Speaker 2: the Ringer where besides the action app with all of

1035
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 2: your awesome picks across all the sports. Where do we

1036
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:54,560
Speaker 2: follow you?

1037
00:52:56,360 --> 00:52:59,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be doing NFL stuff in the Ringer Gambling

1038
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 3: Show feed. Not sure when we're getting around to division

1039
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 3: by division previews or what that's going to look like

1040
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:07,480
Speaker 3: just exactly yet, but I'll be doing NFL there. I'm

1041
00:53:07,480 --> 00:53:09,439
Speaker 3: also on the Ringer of Soccer Show. You can find

1042
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:12,280
Speaker 3: me on the Ringer dot com writing about various other sports.

1043
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:17,759
Speaker 3: In the last two months, I've written about tennis, soccer, baseball,

1044
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 3: and the Papal Conclave, so I've really diversified my writing portfolio.

1045
00:53:23,120 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 3: Shout out to Pope Leo, but I think it's been

1046
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 3: a lot of fun.

1047
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me on.

1048
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:29,719
Speaker 3: I'm excited to do the We're going to record the

1049
00:53:29,800 --> 00:53:32,480
Speaker 3: NFC episode soon soon after this definitely will be a

1050
00:53:32,520 --> 00:53:35,879
Speaker 3: lot more upheaval, a lot more difference making, and such

1051
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:37,439
Speaker 3: has been the way of the NFL for the last

1052
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:38,479
Speaker 3: I would say ten years.

1053
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:40,879
Speaker 1: But yeah, it was fun.

1054
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:43,440
Speaker 3: I'm glad we had some disagreement. I'm glad we found

1055
00:53:43,440 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 3: something different and I ended up saying that the AFC

1056
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:49,759
Speaker 3: West was overrated and yet picked three of them to

1057
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 3: make the playoffs.

1058
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 1: Overrated is a relative term, of.

1059
00:53:53,080 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 2: Course, everything is relative. Yeah, be sure listen to the

1060
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:58,759
Speaker 2: NFC version that should be up later this week. Keep

1061
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:01,759
Speaker 2: your eyes on the Action Podcast all summer. We will,

1062
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 2: of course be ramping up more and more as we

1063
00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:07,799
Speaker 2: head toward the NFL season. Vanda, good to catch up

1064
00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 2: with you again. We'll do NFC soon in a few

1065
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:13,000
Speaker 2: minutes in real time here later this week. For you listening,

1066
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:16,239
Speaker 2: this has been the Action Network podcast. We'll talk to

1067
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 2: you soon.

1068
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:35,919
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1069
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1070
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1071
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 3: hundred Gambler