WEBVTT - The White House’s Shifting Explanations for the Iran War

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>As the US and Israel continue their attacks on Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>the White House is now trying to sell Congress on

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<v Speaker 2>the war it's already started.

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<v Speaker 1>They have let this go on for a handful of

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<v Speaker 1>days now without sort of a clear rationale of what

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<v Speaker 1>has happened, how long this will go.

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<v Speaker 2>On Bloomberg National Political correspondent Nancy Cook.

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<v Speaker 1>And now they're trying to play catch up, both with

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<v Speaker 1>lawmakers with their own base. Now they're really on the defensive.

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump made the case today that it was critical

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<v Speaker 2>to hit Iran before it attacked the US or An Ally.

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<v Speaker 3>We were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was

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<v Speaker 3>my opinion that they were going to attack first. They

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<v Speaker 3>were going to attack if we didn't do it, they

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<v Speaker 3>were going to attack first. I fell strongly about.

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<v Speaker 2>Members of the administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio,

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<v Speaker 2>are holding an all Congress briefing today. Rubio also brief

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<v Speaker 2>Congression Leader's Monday and has been insistent that the Trump

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<v Speaker 2>administration gave Congress at least some high profile members the

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<v Speaker 2>necessary notice before striking targets in Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>We notified Congress. I mean we notified the Gang of Eight.

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<v Speaker 3>We notified Congressional leadership.

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<v Speaker 1>There's no law that requires us to do that.

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<v Speaker 3>The law says we have to notify them forty eight

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<v Speaker 3>hours after beginning hostilities.

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<v Speaker 2>With Technically, Congress not the president has the power to

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<v Speaker 2>declare war, and members of Congress, mostly Democrats, like Senator

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<v Speaker 2>Mark Warner, have pushed back on the idea that the

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<v Speaker 2>Trump administration followed constitutional procedure.

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<v Speaker 4>System says, before president choosers to go to war, you

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<v Speaker 4>got to get a declaration. You've got to get make

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<v Speaker 4>the case the American people. You've got to ask Congress.

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<v Speaker 4>None of that took place as he chose to start

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<v Speaker 4>this war Friday night.

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<v Speaker 2>But there are also criticisms coming in from Trump's own party.

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<v Speaker 2>In posts on social media, Senator Ran Paul and Congressman

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<v Speaker 2>Thomas Massey, both of Kentucky, said they were opposed to

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<v Speaker 2>this war.

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<v Speaker 1>There has been a real split within the magus. You

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<v Speaker 1>have some that are supporting the president and others who

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<v Speaker 1>say this is not the America first president that we

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<v Speaker 1>signed up for.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News Today on the show, As conflict widens, in

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East. Tensions are also rising on Capitol Hill.

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<v Speaker 2>What are Trump's plans for what comes next? And what

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<v Speaker 2>power does Congress have to shape the direction of this conflict.

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<v Speaker 2>Four days into the war with Iran, I sat down

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<v Speaker 2>with Bloomberg National political correspondent Nancy Cook and National security

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<v Speaker 2>reporter Jamie Terrabey to discuss the Trump administration's shifting justifications

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<v Speaker 2>for launching joint strikes on Iran with Israel. So, Nancy,

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump has said these attacks may last four to

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<v Speaker 2>five weeks, possibly more. Monday Night on True Social Heat

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<v Speaker 2>even said the US had enough weapons to fight wars forever.

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<v Speaker 2>What do we know about what he's looking to accomplish

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<v Speaker 2>in Iran and how long he's actually willing to let

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<v Speaker 2>this war go on.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think that the President has given a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of different statements to a lot of different people. He

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<v Speaker 1>talked to about you know, ten or more journalists over

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<v Speaker 1>the weekend, sort of highlighting what his rationales were and

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<v Speaker 1>what the time frame would be. There have been a

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<v Speaker 1>bunch of shifting explanations for you know, four to five weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>We've also heard it could be much longer, you know.

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary of State Rubio said that we were doing this

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<v Speaker 1>because of Israel. Other people have said, oh, it's because

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<v Speaker 1>of a nuclear weapon. I mean, I think that the

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<v Speaker 1>point is is that there has just been a remarkable

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<v Speaker 1>amount of shifting justifications, both for the time frame and

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<v Speaker 1>also the reason why we're doing this.

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<v Speaker 2>And let's tick through some of these justifications that we've

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<v Speaker 2>heard from the President so far. There's the idea that

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<v Speaker 2>this could spark regime change, permanently disable Iron's nuclear missile capabilities,

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<v Speaker 2>stop its shipments of roadside bombs, ended support for armed

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<v Speaker 2>proxy groups, all of these suggestions by Trump of what

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<v Speaker 2>the reason for this war has been. Why is military

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<v Speaker 2>intervention the strategy? Why not continue negotiations with Iran? For example?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think that two things. One, Trump has always

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<v Speaker 1>been very aligned with Israel and has always really followed

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<v Speaker 1>their lead, and this is something that not in Yahoo wants.

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<v Speaker 1>You could argue why he wants to do that for

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<v Speaker 1>his own political survival or for the safety of Israel.

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<v Speaker 1>I'll leave that to others to decide. But Trump has

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<v Speaker 1>always been very aligned with him, and so you know

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<v Speaker 1>they are following Israel's lead on this. Secretary of State

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<v Speaker 1>Marco Rubu basically said that on the Hill just outright yesterday,

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<v Speaker 1>which is something that a lot of political people latched

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<v Speaker 1>onto and were sort of thought that was interesting. But

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<v Speaker 1>then two more broadly, Trump really came back into office

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<v Speaker 1>because people were disillusioned with the state of the economy. However,

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<v Speaker 1>now that he is back in office for his second term,

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<v Speaker 1>he doesn't have to run for re election again, and

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<v Speaker 1>he really wants to go for it in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>establishing his legacy, and to him, that means remaking the

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<v Speaker 1>world order, getting rid of leaders who he sees as

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<v Speaker 1>bad actors. And he has really sort of changed his

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<v Speaker 1>tune on nation building and become much more of a

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<v Speaker 1>foreign policy hawk and a second term than I think

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<v Speaker 1>anyone anticipated. And I think that a lot of the

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<v Speaker 1>MAGA base is pretty surprised because in his second term,

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<v Speaker 1>what we've seen is, you know, he captured and ousted

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<v Speaker 1>Nicholas Maduro of Venezuela in early January. Now we have

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<v Speaker 1>the bombing of Iran, the administration is openly eyeing leadership

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<v Speaker 1>changes in Cuba, and so it's just, you know, Trump

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<v Speaker 1>really wants to remake the world order and he is

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<v Speaker 1>going ahead and doing it, and so it's just a

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<v Speaker 1>really interesting moment, and it's a really interesting moment politically

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of his own base, because not everyone's happy

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<v Speaker 1>with it, and not everyone's going along with it. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I still think that people may fall in line, but

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<v Speaker 1>right now there's a lot of fracturing in the mega base,

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<v Speaker 1>with former lawmakers like Marjorie Taylor Green and influencers like

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<v Speaker 1>Tucker Carlson and Megan Kelly really calling out the president

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<v Speaker 1>and saying this is not what we signed up for.

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<v Speaker 2>And Jimmy, I want to talk more about how these

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<v Speaker 2>strikes in Iran fit into Trump's broader vision for US

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<v Speaker 2>military strategy around the world. As Nancy mentioned, the strikes

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<v Speaker 2>came just a few weeks after US forces seized Venezuela's president,

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<v Speaker 2>Nicholas Maduro in a surprise raid. Is Venezuela being seen

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<v Speaker 2>as a roadmap for what Trump wants to do in Iran.

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<v Speaker 5>It's really interesting to see the fact that Trump has

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<v Speaker 5>used his executive powers to launch attacks on other countries.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, last year it wasn't just Venezuela and the

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<v Speaker 5>boat strikes in the Caribbean, it was Yemen, it was

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<v Speaker 5>Iran as well. And these are all moments during the

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<v Speaker 5>year that he did not go to Congress to get

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<v Speaker 5>any kind of authorization. Secretary Rubio did that that. You know,

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<v Speaker 5>there have been multiple, multiple briefings on the Hill. The

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<v Speaker 5>quality and content of those briefings has varied, and this

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<v Speaker 5>will all fall along political lines. We've seen, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>senators who are Democrats who come out saying there's not

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<v Speaker 5>enough to detail. We don't understand this, you know, we

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<v Speaker 5>need more. There's no Senator Mark Warner, who you know

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<v Speaker 5>from Virginia, who's part of the Gang of Aid, and

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<v Speaker 5>the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee said that

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<v Speaker 5>as a member of the Gang of Eight, he did

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<v Speaker 5>not see anything that presented an imminent threat to the US,

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<v Speaker 5>and he would have had access to classified information. But

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<v Speaker 5>then you have people like Jim rich who is a

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<v Speaker 5>senior Republican also on the Intelligence Committee, who will tell

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<v Speaker 5>you things like he was convinced before he even walked

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<v Speaker 5>into these briefings, you know. So there are people who

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<v Speaker 5>are determined to support the president no matter what, and

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<v Speaker 5>then there are those who also just question everything he does.

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<v Speaker 5>So everything that kind of comes out of these briefings

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<v Speaker 5>is really challenging to part. But there is one hundred

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<v Speaker 5>percent of frustration, particularly when you see really sort of

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<v Speaker 5>conservative hawks like Senator Roger Wicker, who's the chairman of

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<v Speaker 5>the Senata Armed Services Committee, and a hawk like just

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<v Speaker 5>these are these are the things that he cares about,

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<v Speaker 5>not getting enough to detail and not having that requisite,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, communication between the Pentagon and the Hill or

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<v Speaker 5>the White House and the Hill, and sort of really

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<v Speaker 5>having to play catch up all this time.

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<v Speaker 2>And do me I'm curious how much did Congress know

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<v Speaker 2>before the US attacked around I know you say it's

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<v Speaker 2>hard to parse, of course, but what are the facts here?

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<v Speaker 5>What we understand is that the Gang of Eight was briefed,

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<v Speaker 5>senior leadership was briefed. My understanding is, and Rubio said

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<v Speaker 5>this yesterday, that they did give, you know, very sort

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<v Speaker 5>of short notice to the senior leadership in Congress that

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<v Speaker 5>an attack was happening or that something was underway, but

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<v Speaker 5>they didn't want to say too much, obviously because they

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<v Speaker 5>didn't really want anything to get out before it happened.

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<v Speaker 2>And how much does that differ from the kind of

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<v Speaker 2>notification that's supposed to happen in these situations.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, I mean, normally there's a lot more attempts to

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<v Speaker 5>get buy in from the Hill. You know, there's a

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<v Speaker 5>lot more outreach, there's a lot more at least also

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<v Speaker 5>preparing the public for something like this, you know, and normally,

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<v Speaker 5>particularly when we look at the Iraq War, George W. Bush,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, went to the Hill, got Congress to approve it.

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<v Speaker 5>It was a vote, and you know, but we've seen

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<v Speaker 5>every president since the war Paris Act came in in

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<v Speaker 5>the seventies just ignore it. You know. Barack Obama did

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<v Speaker 5>it in Libya, Bill Clinton did it in Kosovo, Ronald

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<v Speaker 5>Reagan did it in Grenada, and Trump, Donald Trump did

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<v Speaker 5>it in his first administration. So it's there as a

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<v Speaker 5>check and as we have clearly seen in this first

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<v Speaker 5>year of President Trump's second term, Congress has not been

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<v Speaker 5>that much of a check on his powers and his decisions.

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<v Speaker 2>After the break, what could Congress to limit the Trump

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<v Speaker 2>administration's use of force in Iran? And will they do it?

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<v Speaker 2>The Trump administration made a push for Congressional support for

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<v Speaker 2>the war in Iran on Tuesday. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegsath,

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<v Speaker 2>CIA director John Ratcliffe, Joint chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Kine,

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<v Speaker 2>and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were on the Hill

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<v Speaker 2>for a briefing open to all members of Congress. Jamie,

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<v Speaker 2>talk me through what happens during that briefing and what

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<v Speaker 2>you expect to come of it.

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<v Speaker 5>People who want to be convinced will be convinced. People

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<v Speaker 5>who don't want to be convinced will not be convinced.

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<v Speaker 5>And then there's the people in the middle who actually have,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, really sort of studied, concerned questions. And they're

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<v Speaker 5>the ones that you always really want to talk to

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<v Speaker 5>because they're the ones who kind of understand the sort

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<v Speaker 5>of the breadth of what military action is. And there

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<v Speaker 5>are going to be so many people at these briefings,

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<v Speaker 5>if it's the entire both the House and the Senate

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<v Speaker 5>and all of their members, and I think at some

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<v Speaker 5>point it's going to get a little leaky some stuff.

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<v Speaker 5>As we'll chat. We'll be hearing more about this in

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<v Speaker 5>reporting over the next couple of days. Whether people will

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<v Speaker 5>be satisfied, I think will largely depend on who they

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<v Speaker 5>support in this situation.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I want to ask about another potential pivot point here.

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<v Speaker 2>Both houses of Congress had already scheduled a vote attempting

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<v Speaker 2>to curb Trump's use of military power. The vote actually,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, predated the strike on Iran. Can you tell

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<v Speaker 2>me about that effort and why it started originally?

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<v Speaker 5>I think because of the last year that we've seen

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<v Speaker 5>with all of the military actions that the White House

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<v Speaker 5>has launched unilaterally. It started with Yemen went into Iran,

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<v Speaker 5>and then of course the boat strikes in the Caribbean,

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<v Speaker 5>and then the Nicholas Maduro raid, you know, and then

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<v Speaker 5>the chatter that began to increase, and we saw all

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<v Speaker 5>of the military build up off the coast of Venezuela

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<v Speaker 5>begin to move to the Gulf in preparation now we

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<v Speaker 5>know for these efforts against Iran. So in both houses,

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<v Speaker 5>in both chambers, Democrats and Republicans have sponsored bills to

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<v Speaker 5>go to the floor to provide limits for what President

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<v Speaker 5>Trump can do with the Iran war. Now they're both

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<v Speaker 5>expected to fail, and they're both expected to fail because

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<v Speaker 5>in spite of some Republicans like Grand Paul or Thomas

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<v Speaker 5>Massey who are against this kind of intervention slash foreign action,

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<v Speaker 5>there are Democrats who are very pro Israel who have

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<v Speaker 5>said they will either not vote or vote against it.

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<v Speaker 5>So it's very symbolic at this point, you know, when

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<v Speaker 5>we keep talking about like, you know what the House

0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:59.040
<v Speaker 5>and the Senate canon can't do to check the White

0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:04.440
<v Speaker 5>House and Executive because because there's a majority in both chambers,

0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:07.360
<v Speaker 5>that's really really challenging. And I think that that's going

0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:10.600
<v Speaker 5>to be another thing to watch in November, whether the

0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:14.280
<v Speaker 5>House flips, whether the Senate also flips, and what difference

0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:18.240
<v Speaker 5>that makes to the remaining years of President Trump's term.

0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:20.560
<v Speaker 5>The most important part about all of this, and I

0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:22.680
<v Speaker 5>think that that's something that we're going to see play

0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:26.120
<v Speaker 5>out this week in Congress is the people who voted

0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:28.480
<v Speaker 5>for and people who voted against. And you know, this

0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.480
<v Speaker 5>was a thing that sort of like dogged Hillary Clinton

0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:35.920
<v Speaker 5>after the Iraq War became intensely unpopular when she ran

0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:39.160
<v Speaker 5>for president. And so when we see the War Powers

0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:42.640
<v Speaker 5>resolutions hit the floor in both the Senate and the

0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:46.760
<v Speaker 5>House this week, people who don't vote will be seen

0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:50.640
<v Speaker 5>to be given their tacit approval to the war. And

0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:54.800
<v Speaker 5>if this drags on, we've just had more US military casualties.

0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:57.800
<v Speaker 5>Both Hegseeth and President Trump have not said no to

0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:01.760
<v Speaker 5>the possibility of ground troops that we see, you know,

0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:07.000
<v Speaker 5>where Congress can and cannot have an effective role.

0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:10.840
<v Speaker 2>And Nancy in previous conflicts in the region, the US

0:14:10.880 --> 0:14:14.240
<v Speaker 2>has lined up international support as well, in particular from

0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:18.200
<v Speaker 2>European allies. What kind of support or response has Trump

0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:20.560
<v Speaker 2>been getting from Europe this time. What is the EU

0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:23.840
<v Speaker 2>said about their willingness to be drawn into this broader conflict?

0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:27.640
<v Speaker 1>Well, Trump didn't ask any of our typical allies for

0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:30.360
<v Speaker 1>permission on this, I mean, apart from talking about it

0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:32.880
<v Speaker 1>with Israel, but all of the European partners that we

0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:35.560
<v Speaker 1>normally work with, you know, weren't given the heads up.

0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 1>But actually I think that that made it easier for them.

0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:41.680
<v Speaker 1>You know, they didn't have to you know, commit to it,

0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:43.800
<v Speaker 1>they didn't have to say they supported it, you know,

0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:46.120
<v Speaker 1>they weren't put in an awkward position. So I think

0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:48.400
<v Speaker 1>from their perspective, it's probably a good thing. You know,

0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:51.440
<v Speaker 1>they didn't have to sort of negotiate with Trump on this.

0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:54.120
<v Speaker 1>But I do think that it just shows the extent

0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:57.080
<v Speaker 1>to which he is willing to go out alone on

0:14:57.160 --> 0:15:01.360
<v Speaker 1>things and how much he is charging ahead without leaning

0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:04.960
<v Speaker 1>on traditional alliances in terms of foreign policy. And this

0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:06.840
<v Speaker 1>is just another instance.

0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.280
<v Speaker 2>On the US side. How do you expect these strikes

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:13.360
<v Speaker 2>and their aftermath to play out in the midterms. We

0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:15.520
<v Speaker 2>might get a hint today as voters head to the

0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:18.280
<v Speaker 2>polls in primaries in North Carolina and Texas.

0:15:18.800 --> 0:15:20.720
<v Speaker 1>How they play out in the midterms depends how long

0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:23.920
<v Speaker 1>the strikes go on and what it really does to

0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:26.720
<v Speaker 1>the economy. So we saw the price of a gallon

0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:31.480
<v Speaker 1>of gasoline jump overnight up to three dollars and eleven

0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:33.720
<v Speaker 1>cents a gallon, and so that is something that I'll

0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:36.880
<v Speaker 1>be watching. If the strikes, you know, go on for

0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:39.320
<v Speaker 1>two months and that ends up hurting the price of

0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:41.280
<v Speaker 1>oil and the price of gasoline, then I think it

0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:44.200
<v Speaker 1>will play into the midterms quite a bit. If the

0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.760
<v Speaker 1>strikes are over, you know, in a few weeks, and

0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:49.560
<v Speaker 1>we're not embroiled into a huge regional conflict, then I

0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:51.680
<v Speaker 1>feel like by the time people are thinking about who

0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:54.560
<v Speaker 1>they'll vote for in the midterms, which typically happens in

0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:57.560
<v Speaker 1>the summer and fall, then you know, people will have

0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:01.360
<v Speaker 1>moved on to other things. People are so upset about

0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:04.760
<v Speaker 1>domestic policy issues right now, including the economy, ice is

0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:07.760
<v Speaker 1>handling of the immigration that that's really their focus. And

0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:11.520
<v Speaker 1>Trump voters don't necessarily want this nation building, and if

0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:15.000
<v Speaker 1>that continues to disrupt the domestic agenda. I think Republicans

0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:17.560
<v Speaker 1>will pay a price at the polls in November.

0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:26.440
<v Speaker 2>This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.

0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:30.120
<v Speaker 2>This is a developing story. We're live blogging at bloomberg

0:16:30.120 --> 0:16:33.080
<v Speaker 2>dot com with the latest from across the globe, and

0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:36.160
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0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:40.160
<v Speaker 2>at Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast Offer. Thanks for listening.

0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:41.440
<v Speaker 2>We'll be back tomorrow.