WEBVTT - BlackRock’s GIP Buys Aligned Data Centers in $40 Billion Bet 

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<v Speaker 2>It's yet another day of data center deals.

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<v Speaker 3>I feel like this is a never ending story here,

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<v Speaker 3>and it continues to propel the stock market higher.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's kind of what's happening here.

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<v Speaker 3>The nazak up one point three percent, the SMP five

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<v Speaker 3>hundred up one point one percent. So we need to

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<v Speaker 3>bring Caroline Hide, our BTech co anchor, in to our

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<v Speaker 3>New York studios here to kind of walk us through

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<v Speaker 3>some of the big stories. And I guess let's start

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<v Speaker 3>on the one that became official, which is black Rocks

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<v Speaker 3>GIP buying aligned data centers.

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<v Speaker 2>This is a forty billion dollar AI.

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<v Speaker 4>Bet, and to be fair, it's a lot more than Blackrock.

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<v Speaker 5>You've got Blackrock, but you've got MGX, which is Mamdala

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<v Speaker 5>AI investment company, part of that sovereign wealth fund focus

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<v Speaker 5>on AI. But you've got Microsoft in the mix, You've

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<v Speaker 5>got in video in the mix, You've got XAI in

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<v Speaker 5>the mix. Basically, anyone who likes financing data centers, or

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<v Speaker 5>needs access to data centers, or has some gpused to

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<v Speaker 5>put inside data centers seemingly wanted in on what was

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<v Speaker 5>the one hundred billion dollar get together pool of capital,

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<v Speaker 5>and this is their first chunk of change, forty billion

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<v Speaker 5>being committed to ALIGN data centers. It's over in Texas

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<v Speaker 5>and this was actually owned by mcquarie, a big Australian

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<v Speaker 5>infrastructure player, and they are now managing to sell off.

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<v Speaker 5>It's a huge campus you're thinking about operating in US

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<v Speaker 5>and indeed in South America Aligned they've got fifty campuses,

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<v Speaker 5>They've got seventy eight data centers.

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<v Speaker 4>But all of this is as we seem to have.

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<v Speaker 5>Insatiable demand for compute and therefore values go skyrocketing.

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<v Speaker 6>So your tech beek Caroline is always front center for

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<v Speaker 6>this market. It's even more so, certainly the last two

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<v Speaker 6>years with AI. It's even worse in the last two

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<v Speaker 6>weeks with a lot of these.

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<v Speaker 7>Circular deals that have been referred to circular.

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<v Speaker 6>Where people are investing in each other's companies and things

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<v Speaker 6>like that, and the dollar amounts are so huge. Are

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<v Speaker 6>your sources are they saying this feels a little frothy?

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<v Speaker 7>What are your sources help?

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<v Speaker 5>I think a lot of people are starting to put

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<v Speaker 5>the word bubble in the context of AI in infrastructure

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<v Speaker 5>right now. Look, you even have the CFO of City

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<v Speaker 5>Group yesterday talking about his anxiety when it comes to

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<v Speaker 5>potential frothiness in the AI market. You've had the global

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<v Speaker 5>certain manager's survey coming from Bank of America yesterday more

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<v Speaker 5>the most we've ever seen in terms of majority thinking

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<v Speaker 5>that these AI players are too highly valued. So certainly

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<v Speaker 5>the circularityuse people pause. We had a great fan manager

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<v Speaker 5>on just yesterday really saying, look, even though they think

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<v Speaker 5>in video is a bit even though today HSBC has

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<v Speaker 5>raised the price target on video to maybe putting this

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<v Speaker 5>at an eight trillion dollar company in the next twelve months,

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<v Speaker 5>but people do have pause when they're putting one hundred

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<v Speaker 5>billion dollars in equity investment into open Ai, basically so

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<v Speaker 5>that open ai can keep buying its own GPUs. You

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<v Speaker 5>see that happening over in Europe. Another key player that

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<v Speaker 5>we've got to keep an eye on is end Scale.

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<v Speaker 5>Letters is currently a private AI data center builder Outer

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<v Speaker 5>I might add they've never built one single AI data center.

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<v Speaker 5>But they were a cryptomnor that's pivoted and now they're

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<v Speaker 5>committing to doing four data center projects with Microsoft. But

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<v Speaker 5>n Scale of course got the tap the anointment from

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<v Speaker 5>Jensen when he went over to London saying I want

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<v Speaker 5>to back you in my equity because guess what, two

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<v Speaker 5>thousand GPUs are going to be offered in those.

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<v Speaker 4>Four projects to Microsoft.

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<v Speaker 5>So it just keeps on being this idea that ultimately

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<v Speaker 5>where are we getting the money from at the moment,

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<v Speaker 5>build it and they will come. Is a mentality we

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<v Speaker 5>need the infrastructure before you can really get the productivity games.

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<v Speaker 4>So in videos putting its cash to work.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, So circular funding and yet another example of that.

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<v Speaker 3>So what I'm confused about is how some companies that

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<v Speaker 3>had indicated things would be kind of rough just a

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<v Speaker 3>few months ago had now turned around and are seeing

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<v Speaker 3>a completely different tune. ASML, which is a Dutch semiconductor

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<v Speaker 3>equipment maker, had warned that the the trade war the

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<v Speaker 3>terraf Sun China was going to be hurtful towards business.

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<v Speaker 3>Now it's completely like turn around and said, you know

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<v Speaker 3>what demands great.

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<v Speaker 5>Maybe they'll be able to eke out growth in twenty

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<v Speaker 5>twenty six. I think it's also our expectations for ASML

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<v Speaker 5>came down some. If you're looking at a quarter on

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<v Speaker 5>quarter basis, the sales and the bookings fell, it's because

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<v Speaker 5>China is so outsized in their revenue stream, and China's

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<v Speaker 5>going to start dialing back in twenty twenty six because

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<v Speaker 5>of the geopolitical issues and the fact that the US

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<v Speaker 5>is asking its neighbors and allies to stop allowing such

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<v Speaker 5>semiconductor equipment.

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<v Speaker 4>Into the nation.

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<v Speaker 5>And you just had the House China Committee saying once again,

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<v Speaker 5>we're worried about ASML, but also KLA and some of

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<v Speaker 5>the other US players. So I think that we are seeing, yes,

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<v Speaker 5>ASML managing to calm anxiety, that they will still see

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<v Speaker 5>growth from other pockets for these euv This is extreme

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<v Speaker 5>ultra violet lithography.

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<v Speaker 4>They're the only people that make.

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<v Speaker 5>This particular sophisticated equipment that is making your leading edge

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<v Speaker 5>chips that are going to be fueling our AI consumption.

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<v Speaker 5>So if they're the only player, well they've got really

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<v Speaker 5>it's sort of an built in demand pool. But China

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<v Speaker 5>is going to be diving back, and the market wanted

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<v Speaker 5>to hear that others were going to step in, and

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<v Speaker 5>it seems as though they are going to.

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<v Speaker 7>Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

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<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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<v Speaker 1>Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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<v Speaker 3>LBMA shares are higher right now after a surprise return

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<v Speaker 3>to sales growth. So maybe that is leading to folks

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<v Speaker 3>saying perhaps the downturn we saw in luxury is over.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's get some perspective from Debrah Aikn.

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<v Speaker 3>She has Bloomberg Intelligence Luxury Goods analyst deb Good to

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<v Speaker 3>speak with you. What are you thinking when it comes

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<v Speaker 3>to LVMH's results on what it signals about whether luxury

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<v Speaker 3>is back.

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<v Speaker 8>Hike? Yeah, so really a very big sentiment indicator. The

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<v Speaker 8>comments from the company late last night out of Paris

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<v Speaker 8>were more positive than the market anticipated. When we look

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<v Speaker 8>at the numbers in terms of the organic sales growth,

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<v Speaker 8>the market expected around minus one. We came in a

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<v Speaker 8>plus one. But it's about the sequential improvement from Q

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<v Speaker 8>two to Q three and the fact that all five

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<v Speaker 8>of the business units are improved versus Q two and

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<v Speaker 8>more than that. China is mid to high single digit

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<v Speaker 8>growth versus a year ago.

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<v Speaker 2>The US is robust.

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<v Speaker 8>Europe is doing the same as it did across the board,

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<v Speaker 8>doing okay but missing out on tourism and Asia. Extrapan

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<v Speaker 8>is positive. We know four q US will face a

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<v Speaker 8>bit more of a difficult comp after they spent in

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<v Speaker 8>last year beyond the election and the Trump win. But

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<v Speaker 8>into the first half of twenty twenty six, the market

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<v Speaker 8>is looking more positive and it's certainly rallied the whole

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<v Speaker 8>of the second This morning and this afternoon.

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<v Speaker 6>Hey, dev, what's the correlation between luxury spending and just

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<v Speaker 6>kind of the broader stock market around the world. Because

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<v Speaker 6>markets are really performing well, how does that correlate to

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<v Speaker 6>just luxury spending?

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<v Speaker 9>You know?

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<v Speaker 8>The big thing, The big thing on luxury spend has

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<v Speaker 8>been that the very high end has done well. So

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<v Speaker 8>EMMS Brunella Cucinelli, where they work with a restricted volume

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<v Speaker 8>operating model, they've done well in terms of their top

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<v Speaker 8>line growth. But when I think about an LVMH, you

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<v Speaker 8>know they're given how big they are, they need a

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<v Speaker 8>big volume there. Even with some price in to manage

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<v Speaker 8>growth in this category, and instead what we saw last

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<v Speaker 8>year and the beginning of this year was maybe a

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<v Speaker 8>little bit of trading down. So brands like Tapestry's Coach

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<v Speaker 8>Ralph Lauren, they became really so popular, not only in

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<v Speaker 8>the US, but more on a globalized basis too. And

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<v Speaker 8>so the view has been that the sentiment around the

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<v Speaker 8>share prices has very much been opposed and opposite to

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<v Speaker 8>what's been happening on the stock market. But with the

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<v Speaker 8>exception of the mid range and the mid range have

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<v Speaker 8>done better because the view in the investor mindset has

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<v Speaker 8>been that the luxury buyer will trade down. They've done

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<v Speaker 8>that in some brands, but not all brands, in some categories,

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<v Speaker 8>not all categories, and generally we expect the biggest and

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<v Speaker 8>the best to come back first.

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<v Speaker 3>What about LVMH's wines and spirits division. We've been hearing

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<v Speaker 3>from Constellation Brands and other spirits companies that you know,

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<v Speaker 3>there's been this massive shift in consumer tastes away from alcohol,

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<v Speaker 3>certainly the younger generation. Does that affect a company like LVMH.

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<v Speaker 8>So a different kind of thing with LVMH. I think

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<v Speaker 8>at the very high end we had some US weakness,

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<v Speaker 8>so they operate in wines, fine mine, high end champagnes, cognacs,

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<v Speaker 8>and others. Champagne is doing well and is back to

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<v Speaker 8>growth in the US. Rose wine is doing very very well,

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<v Speaker 8>but some of the spirit side is still struggling a

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<v Speaker 8>little bit, and I think that's because we've seen some

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<v Speaker 8>trading down. So we had China very heavily stocked and

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<v Speaker 8>the US not so solid through the first half the year.

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<v Speaker 8>But there are signs of that coming back. If I

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<v Speaker 8>look at the numbers on the Q three for wines

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<v Speaker 8>and spirits, they're at plus one and they were at

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<v Speaker 8>minus four for Q two and minus nine for Q one,

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<v Speaker 8>So it seems as though inventory is leveled out and

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<v Speaker 8>we're starting to see some selling.

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<v Speaker 6>Deba I learned from you long ago, and looking at luxury,

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<v Speaker 6>you have to also pay attention to what's happening in

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<v Speaker 6>China and the Chinese consumer. Are the Chinese spending either

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<v Speaker 6>in China or are they traveling to the London Parish,

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<v Speaker 6>New York Milan type thing?

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<v Speaker 7>What are you seeing?

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah, still we're seeing a lot of the spend. We're

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<v Speaker 8>getting mid thigh single digit growth in that Q three

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<v Speaker 8>from Alvia Maitia on your is on localized spending. We

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<v Speaker 8>are seeing pockets of growth on the tourism side, so

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<v Speaker 8>there is a more positive view and mixed linked into

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<v Speaker 8>the commentary from these results, but overall we are still

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<v Speaker 8>absolutely missing Asian tourist, Chinese tourists from Europe, and also

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<v Speaker 8>in Europe, we're missing the strength of the dollar having

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<v Speaker 8>swung over last year with US purchases here and you

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<v Speaker 8>are seeing some but not as many in terms of

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<v Speaker 8>full recovery versus twenty nineteen. There's growth year on year,

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<v Speaker 8>but not versus twenty nineteen into the USI. But when

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<v Speaker 8>it comes to the Chinese tourists, we used to say

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<v Speaker 8>a third of luxury goods just over we're on the work.

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<v Speaker 8>We're from the Chinese cohort, and that would include on

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<v Speaker 8>land and traveling right and we still think there's a

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<v Speaker 8>way for that to go, but certainly on land and

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<v Speaker 8>locally they're doing better than they were.

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<v Speaker 7>Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

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<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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<v Speaker 1>Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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<v Speaker 1>you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 3>Paul, it feels very two thousand and seven ish with

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<v Speaker 3>the deal making taking place, with the banks reporting these

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<v Speaker 3>incredible numbers, a lot of companies saying they may go private.

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<v Speaker 2>We're hearing a lot of speculation about that.

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<v Speaker 3>The latest is Grinder, and in this case, the dating

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<v Speaker 3>app has confirmed that it received a letter from its

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<v Speaker 3>largest shareholders interested in exploring a take private transaction. So

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<v Speaker 3>let's bring in our Bloomberg Intelligence Internet analysts, software and

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<v Speaker 3>Internet analysts with us, Nicole Desuza to give us a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit more here. So, Nicole, Grind, this dating app

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<v Speaker 3>that's focused on the LGBT community, does not actually have

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<v Speaker 3>a proposal to evaluate. It's just telling everyone, Hey, this

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<v Speaker 3>is happening, and there's percolations of this happening.

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<v Speaker 9>Correct.

0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:13.360
<v Speaker 10>So, as of right now, what we know what's been

0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:16.800
<v Speaker 10>reported is there are two investors, Raymond's Age and James

0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:20.040
<v Speaker 10>lou who together control about sixty percent of Grinder. They

0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:24.200
<v Speaker 10>are in talks with Fortress Investment Group to secure debt

0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:27.720
<v Speaker 10>financing to take the company private. There has been no

0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:30.840
<v Speaker 10>direct proposal at this time, but discussions seem to be

0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:33.880
<v Speaker 10>around a fifteen dollars share price, which would value Grinder

0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:35.240
<v Speaker 10>at around three billion dollars.

0:12:35.679 --> 0:12:38.199
<v Speaker 6>Talk to us about this company. How has it performed

0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:40.120
<v Speaker 6>as a publicly traded company.

0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:43.880
<v Speaker 10>So you're to date this shares are down around twenty

0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:47.440
<v Speaker 10>nine percent. That being said, Grinder is one of the

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:50.840
<v Speaker 10>few dating apps that is still growing paying users, so

0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:51.400
<v Speaker 10>we've seen so.

0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:53.560
<v Speaker 7>They're growing, They're still growing users.

0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:55.720
<v Speaker 10>Yes, okay, and that at this point right now is

0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:57.600
<v Speaker 10>a little bit rare for dating apps. Right We've seen

0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:01.520
<v Speaker 10>Tender lose users, We've seen bumble looos lot of users. Grinder,

0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:03.560
<v Speaker 10>because of their niche user base, has been able to

0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:06.000
<v Speaker 10>hang on to a good amount of their users and

0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:07.040
<v Speaker 10>grow users every year.

0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:10.000
<v Speaker 2>What is their strategy going forward?

0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:12.000
<v Speaker 3>Because they did read something about how they have this

0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:15.120
<v Speaker 3>three year plan where they're targeting some pretty aggressive growth

0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:17.640
<v Speaker 3>and the fact that they're growing users is a good sign.

0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 3>But the dating app business doesn't seem to be that

0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:21.160
<v Speaker 3>great right now.

0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:22.520
<v Speaker 2>Yes, So they have.

0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:24.640
<v Speaker 10>A couple of different levers that they can pull. The

0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:26.880
<v Speaker 10>first one is raising prices. They've talked for the first

0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:29.800
<v Speaker 10>time about raising prices. They haven't raised prices since twenty eighteen,

0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:34.920
<v Speaker 10>so they're looking now at potentially raising prices introducing a

0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:38.400
<v Speaker 10>new premium tier. Right now, they get around twenty four

0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:40.920
<v Speaker 10>dollars per paying user, so there is a little bit

0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:42.839
<v Speaker 10>of room for growth. They only have about eight percent

0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:45.720
<v Speaker 10>of their total user base of fifteen million users who

0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:48.319
<v Speaker 10>actually pay for the app, so there is room there.

0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:51.679
<v Speaker 10>They're also growing advertising revenue. Grinder is one of the

0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:54.680
<v Speaker 10>few dating apps that does have a pretty solid ad platform.

0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:58.320
<v Speaker 10>They grew AD revenue around forty percent last quarter, which

0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:01.400
<v Speaker 10>was a big step up. Expect that to continue. They're

0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:04.079
<v Speaker 10>looking at new ad units, they're looking at better targeting,

0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:06.960
<v Speaker 10>so we do think there are there's a room for

0:14:07.080 --> 0:14:08.640
<v Speaker 10>ad revenue to really grow from here.

0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:11.120
<v Speaker 6>I mean, so you step back for the digital ad story,

0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:14.880
<v Speaker 6>it's still a very bullish story for digital advertising. I

0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:19.000
<v Speaker 6>mean there's still that big macro call of digital advertising.

0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:20.880
<v Speaker 6>Whether it's a big ones like Facebook or the smaller

0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:24.760
<v Speaker 6>ones like grind. You're taking dollars away from traditional analog media.

0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:26.120
<v Speaker 6>Is that story still in play and if so, how

0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:27.160
<v Speaker 6>long do you think it goes for?

0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:29.560
<v Speaker 10>I think it is still in play. I mean, we

0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:32.920
<v Speaker 10>do still see some ad dollars going to more traditional sources.

0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:36.720
<v Speaker 10>So you know, obviously, digital advertising is much better targeting.

0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:39.680
<v Speaker 10>You can do things like direct response advertising where users

0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:42.480
<v Speaker 10>are taken directly to a website to make a purchase.

0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:44.000
<v Speaker 4>It's a good use of ad.

0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:48.160
<v Speaker 10>Dollars for companies. Grinder has a really unique user base.

0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:52.280
<v Speaker 10>Their user base is more affluent, they have higher discression

0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:54.520
<v Speaker 10>or income, they tend to be higher educated. So it

0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:56.320
<v Speaker 10>could be a really great platform for a lot of

0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:59.640
<v Speaker 10>advertisers who are looking to advertise to that base.

0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.880
<v Speaker 3>Also, gen Z pretty heavy as well, so talk a

0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:05.720
<v Speaker 3>little bit about how that is very appealing to advertisers.

0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:06.280
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:09.480
<v Speaker 10>So, actually it's funny because Grinder is one of the

0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:12.320
<v Speaker 10>only dating apps really who isn't necessarily seeing an issue

0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:15.560
<v Speaker 10>attracting gen Z users. They've talked a lot about how

0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:18.360
<v Speaker 10>the issues that other dating apps are facing they don't

0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 10>really face because it's such a unique user base and

0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:24.600
<v Speaker 10>because people come to Grinder not just for romantic connection

0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:26.600
<v Speaker 10>but also just to meet people, to make friends, to

0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:29.800
<v Speaker 10>have a community. So Grinder has done a great job

0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:32.160
<v Speaker 10>of attracting these users of holding on to them, and

0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:35.160
<v Speaker 10>again it could be a great place for advertisers to reach.

0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:38.080
<v Speaker 6>Gen Z thirty seconds stuff and why was this stock

0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:41.840
<v Speaker 6>down or is down forty some unpercented, so they have they.

0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:44.200
<v Speaker 10>Have missed on a few revenue metrics. They were a

0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.520
<v Speaker 10>little bit light on revenue last quarter, a little bit

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:47.320
<v Speaker 10>light on ebita.

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:49.640
<v Speaker 4>But again we think, you know.

0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.160
<v Speaker 10>The long term growth perspective for this company is really strong.

0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:56.280
<v Speaker 10>They have been growing users, which is unique for dating apps.

0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:59.200
<v Speaker 10>So we're very comfortable with the twenty to twenty five

0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:01.000
<v Speaker 10>percent revenue growth through twenty twenty seven.

0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:05.400
<v Speaker 7>Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.600
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:15.760
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay, and Android

0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:19.080
<v Speaker 1>Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:22.680
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0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:25.600
<v Speaker 3>You know, for all the talk of all these companies

0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:30.040
<v Speaker 3>involved in AI deals circular deals where they're teaming up

0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:32.680
<v Speaker 3>with someone and they're buying something or investing in somebody

0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:35.120
<v Speaker 3>and partnering with something to buy their own chips back,

0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:39.280
<v Speaker 3>one company is noticeably absent from all these announcements, and

0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:39.960
<v Speaker 3>that is a big one.

0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:41.400
<v Speaker 2>It's Apple. Yeah, where is it?

0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 9>I don't know.

0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:45.040
<v Speaker 7>They have a lot of cash, they do, I don't know.

0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:48.080
<v Speaker 7>I don't know their AI play. That's what I don't know.

0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:50.200
<v Speaker 3>Well, their AI doesn't work very well on their phone.

0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:52.360
<v Speaker 3>Right now, I can tell you that An A. Grana

0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:54.960
<v Speaker 3>is a tech analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and he joins

0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:58.240
<v Speaker 3>US now from Chicago, So An Rag. There are some

0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:01.840
<v Speaker 3>headlines here that Apple is looking to beef up its

0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:06.159
<v Speaker 3>smart home offerings lesson its dependence on China. This is

0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:09.240
<v Speaker 3>something that the President of the United States has been

0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:12.040
<v Speaker 3>pushing Apple to do, to bring some of it's manufacturing

0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:14.480
<v Speaker 3>back to the US. But Apple's not doing that. It

0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:18.320
<v Speaker 3>is beefing up its manufacturing operations in Vietnam. What's going

0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:18.919
<v Speaker 3>on with Apple?

0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:22.800
<v Speaker 9>See, when you look at it, whether it's accessories or

0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:25.280
<v Speaker 9>you know, putting together the phones, you really cannot do

0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:27.360
<v Speaker 9>that in the US. We don't have the size, factories

0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:30.639
<v Speaker 9>or automation to do that. So you will have to

0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:33.840
<v Speaker 9>do that somewhere in Asia. And as they're diversifying away

0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:37.800
<v Speaker 9>from China because of the obvious threat between US and

0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:41.440
<v Speaker 9>in China trade wars, Vietnam is a proper location where

0:17:41.520 --> 0:17:45.400
<v Speaker 9>they can assemble let's say, some accessories or smaller products

0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:47.600
<v Speaker 9>where you know they may cost you one hundred dollars

0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:50.359
<v Speaker 9>or fifty dollars, but they have the low cost area

0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:52.919
<v Speaker 9>to produce them or I would say assemble them.

0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:57.440
<v Speaker 6>So an Uraga, We've spent the last two three four

0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:01.000
<v Speaker 6>weeks speaking with you, speaking with man Deep, speaking with

0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:04.399
<v Speaker 6>other tech experts about all these deals around the AI

0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:07.879
<v Speaker 6>ecosystem that we've seen ten billion dollars here, one hundred

0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:12.040
<v Speaker 6>billion dollars there companies ranging from Microsoft to AMD to

0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:15.560
<v Speaker 6>Nvidio to open Ai. We have not talked about Apple

0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:18.160
<v Speaker 6>what is and I'm not sure if that's a good

0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:19.560
<v Speaker 6>or bad thing. I don't know if these deals are

0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:21.600
<v Speaker 6>good or bad. I just know there a lot of them.

0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:24.720
<v Speaker 6>They're coming out of the woodwork. There's big numbers, and

0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:27.560
<v Speaker 6>Apple's just conspicuous by its absence. It feels like, how

0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:28.280
<v Speaker 6>do you think about it?

0:18:29.040 --> 0:18:31.960
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, you know, you could look at it both ways.

0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:34.040
<v Speaker 9>One way is you criticize that they're not really at

0:18:34.080 --> 0:18:37.080
<v Speaker 9>the forefront of the next generation model out there. But

0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:38.840
<v Speaker 9>the other way you can say is, you know, let

0:18:38.920 --> 0:18:41.440
<v Speaker 9>everybody else fight it out. In the end, it will

0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:43.719
<v Speaker 9>go to the one that has the best model and

0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:47.280
<v Speaker 9>include that in there. Its own distribution channel, which is

0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:50.520
<v Speaker 9>basically iOS. We have heard from Olkham and has done

0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:53.120
<v Speaker 9>some really good work on this particular aspect of it.

0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:56.640
<v Speaker 9>Is the next the next version of CD may have

0:18:57.560 --> 0:19:00.520
<v Speaker 9>technology from some of the third body providers, you know,

0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:03.760
<v Speaker 9>whether that's Open AI and Tropic or even Gemini. You know,

0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:05.840
<v Speaker 9>our bet is that, you know, we hope that they

0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:08.080
<v Speaker 9>go with Gemini because they already get a lot of

0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:11.159
<v Speaker 9>money from Google for the search business. Maybe there is

0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:14.280
<v Speaker 9>some revenue stating on that part as well, So we

0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:17.080
<v Speaker 9>think eventually, we don't know when they will get it

0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:20.240
<v Speaker 9>right when it comes to AI infusing in their product,

0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:23.359
<v Speaker 9>but it's going to come with some third party rather

0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:24.639
<v Speaker 9>than in house AI.

0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:26.879
<v Speaker 3>So in other words, they're kind of waiting for the

0:19:26.960 --> 0:19:30.600
<v Speaker 3>dust to settle, waiting for winners to emerge before picking

0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:35.240
<v Speaker 3>their horse and riding it. Is that something other device makers,

0:19:35.280 --> 0:19:38.160
<v Speaker 3>handset makers are doing as well. I mean, Alphabet doesn't

0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:40.240
<v Speaker 3>have to do that because it has its own AI

0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:42.680
<v Speaker 3>business and it makes handsets.

0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:47.000
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, and it's very well integrated because it's the Google Gemini,

0:19:47.119 --> 0:19:50.080
<v Speaker 9>it's part of Android and then you know Samsung is

0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:52.320
<v Speaker 9>going to license that. So they are all set on

0:19:52.359 --> 0:19:55.280
<v Speaker 9>that particular aspect of it. But it's possible that Apple

0:19:55.359 --> 0:20:00.320
<v Speaker 9>may choose to work with Gemini, Google itself again get

0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:03.000
<v Speaker 9>their technology, infuse it in their products, and you and

0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:05.480
<v Speaker 9>I get the same experience we would get, you know,

0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:09.040
<v Speaker 9>on on on, like for example, using chat GPD or anthropic.

0:20:09.320 --> 0:20:11.720
<v Speaker 9>I think from what we have heard from Marc is

0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:14.960
<v Speaker 9>the research right now is they are running parallel chat

0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:18.280
<v Speaker 9>pots internally try to see which one has a better output.

0:20:18.480 --> 0:20:20.800
<v Speaker 9>And eventually we know with Apple it's going to go

0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:24.800
<v Speaker 9>with the one the highest quality of searches or queries

0:20:24.880 --> 0:20:27.959
<v Speaker 9>or answers, and and you know, let's let's hope that

0:20:27.960 --> 0:20:30.200
<v Speaker 9>they get it around in the March timeframe that it's

0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:31.359
<v Speaker 9>rumored to come out.

0:20:32.880 --> 0:20:35.240
<v Speaker 6>Earnings for the tech companies are going to be in

0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:38.520
<v Speaker 6>a couple of weeks. Here what should we be focusing

0:20:38.560 --> 0:20:39.480
<v Speaker 6>on this quarter?

0:20:39.560 --> 0:20:43.440
<v Speaker 9>On a rug, so we we're bifurcating the entire tech

0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:46.159
<v Speaker 9>space into two buckets. One is area where we are

0:20:46.160 --> 0:20:48.440
<v Speaker 9>going to see some weakness. That's going to be more

0:20:48.480 --> 0:20:52.080
<v Speaker 9>on the consulting side, more on your traditional software side.

0:20:52.359 --> 0:20:55.360
<v Speaker 9>And on the second half of the equation is companies

0:20:55.400 --> 0:20:58.399
<v Speaker 9>that will see an uplift in their revenue because of

0:20:58.480 --> 0:21:02.840
<v Speaker 9>AI related investment. So Cove and Microsoft fall in that bucket.

0:21:03.200 --> 0:21:04.800
<v Speaker 9>But on the other side, you know you're going to

0:21:04.840 --> 0:21:07.840
<v Speaker 9>see some struggle with let's say IBM consulting, although IBM

0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:11.760
<v Speaker 9>software should do well, and that is the bifurcation that

0:21:11.960 --> 0:21:14.919
<v Speaker 9>we have. What is going to be most important for Microsoft,

0:21:14.920 --> 0:21:18.120
<v Speaker 9>for example, is all the headline news that we are

0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:24.120
<v Speaker 9>hearing about lower capacity or some constraints in data center work.

0:21:24.359 --> 0:21:26.920
<v Speaker 9>Whether that's going to have an impact on Azure guidance

0:21:27.000 --> 0:21:30.480
<v Speaker 9>or their cloud revenue guidance for next quarter. That is

0:21:30.480 --> 0:21:32.199
<v Speaker 9>going to be the biggest question for going into the

0:21:32.240 --> 0:21:33.400
<v Speaker 9>quarter for Microsoft.

0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:36.080
<v Speaker 3>Which of the names have the potential to surprise most

0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:38.480
<v Speaker 3>to the upside given what you've seen so far in

0:21:38.600 --> 0:21:40.600
<v Speaker 3>terms of estimates, I.

0:21:40.560 --> 0:21:43.600
<v Speaker 9>Think Core Weve has one potential. But at the same time,

0:21:43.640 --> 0:21:46.160
<v Speaker 9>you know, this stock moves so much on a daily

0:21:46.200 --> 0:21:49.360
<v Speaker 9>basis with any new announcement that comes out, so it's

0:21:49.400 --> 0:21:51.800
<v Speaker 9>tough to say with a lot of that optimism is

0:21:51.840 --> 0:21:55.000
<v Speaker 9>probably baked into the numbers at this point.

0:21:55.760 --> 0:21:58.680
<v Speaker 6>So what's the big thing that you guys are working on.

0:21:59.000 --> 0:22:03.920
<v Speaker 6>I've referred so many people to the Bloomberg Intelligence Technology

0:22:03.960 --> 0:22:08.000
<v Speaker 6>Teams AI report here, which really is definitive. I think

0:22:08.000 --> 0:22:10.840
<v Speaker 6>and kind of laying out for people what AI is

0:22:11.160 --> 0:22:14.280
<v Speaker 6>and you know, what are all the facets of it here,

0:22:14.560 --> 0:22:17.480
<v Speaker 6>what's the next level of analysis for you guys in

0:22:17.520 --> 0:22:19.240
<v Speaker 6>Bloomberg Intelligence Technology.

0:22:20.359 --> 0:22:22.440
<v Speaker 9>So the biggest thing we are trying to hone in

0:22:22.440 --> 0:22:26.359
<v Speaker 9>and bifocate this investment cycle that you mentioned, you know,

0:22:26.440 --> 0:22:29.600
<v Speaker 9>during the initial remarks. There are two aspects of it.

0:22:29.720 --> 0:22:32.560
<v Speaker 9>One is everything that open ai is leading. It's signing

0:22:32.600 --> 0:22:36.200
<v Speaker 9>contracts with Nvidia, Oracle, AMD and so forth. Now at

0:22:36.200 --> 0:22:38.320
<v Speaker 9>this time open ai doesn't have the money to fund

0:22:38.359 --> 0:22:40.680
<v Speaker 9>a lot of that stuff. They have enough financial backouds

0:22:40.680 --> 0:22:42.960
<v Speaker 9>to take care of it, so, you know, let's so

0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:45.639
<v Speaker 9>that's one area to focus on. The second part is

0:22:46.000 --> 0:22:50.719
<v Speaker 9>companies like Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, they are going out and

0:22:51.440 --> 0:22:55.120
<v Speaker 9>building capacity or signing up deals for data centers and

0:22:55.280 --> 0:22:58.119
<v Speaker 9>new chips. Now they have the cash to do it.

0:22:58.359 --> 0:23:00.840
<v Speaker 9>So we are trying to figure out and these cases

0:23:01.119 --> 0:23:04.040
<v Speaker 9>to see both of these scenartives, to see which ones

0:23:04.080 --> 0:23:07.440
<v Speaker 9>of them will have a greater impact on the downstream ecosystem,

0:23:07.520 --> 0:23:10.920
<v Speaker 9>you know, whether it's hardware providers or chip providers or

0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:13.000
<v Speaker 9>for that matter, data center providers as well.

0:23:14.480 --> 0:23:19.199
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast available on Apple, Spotify,

0:23:19.359 --> 0:23:23.360
<v Speaker 1>and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

0:23:23.560 --> 0:23:26.840
<v Speaker 1>ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

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<v Speaker 1>always on the Bloomberg terminal