WEBVTT - These Gadgets Know You're Sick Before You Do 0:00:05.320 --> 0:00:10.559 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one five 0:00:10.800 --> 0:00:15.680 since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:19.440 Your fitbit can tell you a lot about how your 0:00:19.440 --> 0:00:24.000 body is working. Now. Scientists are wondering if wearable technology 0:00:24.079 --> 0:00:27.560 like this can help detect the earliest signs of coronavirus 0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:33.600 infection and help us combat the pandemic. But first, here's 0:00:33.640 --> 0:00:47.040 what happened in virus news today. The outlook for the 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:50.880 global economy in the wake of coronavirus just got worse. 0:00:51.880 --> 0:00:56.040 The International Monetary Fund said they now project the recession 0:00:56.080 --> 0:01:00.120 will be deeper and the recovery slower than they thought 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:04.480 it would two months ago. Today, the i m F 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:08.520 said it expects global gross domestic product to shrink four 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:14.000 point nine percent this year. They had predicted three percent 0:01:14.240 --> 0:01:18.240 in April. The shock to the supply chain was larger 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:22.080 than the i m F anticipated, and for nations struggling 0:01:22.120 --> 0:01:26.080 to control the virus spread, a longer lockdown also will 0:01:26.120 --> 0:01:30.200 take a toll on growth That accounts for the fund's 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:36.360 more pessimistic view. In the US, spikes in sun belt 0:01:36.400 --> 0:01:41.280 states continue while the virus situation improves. In former hotspots. 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:46.440 Now New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut will require visitors 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:50.960 from virus hotspots to quarantine for fourteen days to avoid 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:55.840 a resurgence in cases. The announcement is a reversal from March, 0:01:56.240 --> 0:02:00.320 when Texas and Florida ordered quarantines from the Northeast dates 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:06.400 where cases were surging. Arizona, California, and Texas all set 0:02:06.480 --> 0:02:13.120 records for new cases on Tuesday. Finally, another disease could 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:19.440 ravage certain populations because of the COVID nineteen pandemic. Tuberculosis 0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:25.639 could cause at least one ten thousand additional deaths in China, India, 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:29.040 and South Africa, according to a study published by the 0:02:29.080 --> 0:02:34.239 European Respiratory Journal. Disruptions to health services and delays to 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:39.679 diagnosis and treatment will likely increase TV fatalities. That could 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:43.440 have a greater impact on drug resistant TB patients as 0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:57.000 they often require longer treatment. And now for today's main story, 0:02:58.480 --> 0:03:01.160 the NBA is getting play. There's the option to wear 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:05.079 a device that tracks their health data when basketball games 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:09.880 begin this July. This device, called an aura ring, can 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:13.560 measure things like the body's temperature and heart rate. The 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:15.640 hope is that it could provide the leak with early 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:19.560 warning signs that someone may have contracted an illness like 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:25.240 COVID nineteen. Bloomberg reporter Kristen V. Brown reports that the 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:28.400 move is part of a larger conversation about whether or 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:31.840 not wearable technology like a fitbit or an Apple Watch 0:03:32.120 --> 0:03:37.480 can help fight the pandemic. Here's Kristen. Every day I 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:40.400 get a text from a Stanford research group reminding me 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:43.200 to fill out a series of questions. The questions are 0:03:43.200 --> 0:03:48.040 pretty straightforward. They're mostly related to COVID nineteen. Do you 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:53.920 have any symptoms to report today? No? Feeling good? Have 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:58.200 you received the results from any COVID nineteen tests today? Nope? 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:05.080 Any other stems? I guess not really kind of had it? 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:08.520 Tell me do you think that counts. I've been participating 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:11.240 in this study for several weeks now, and when I'm 0:04:11.240 --> 0:04:14.080 done with my questionnaire, I also send them the data 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:20.040 my Apple Watch has captured for the day. The study 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:23.160 is just one of several happening around the world a 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:26.400 scientists raised to find out if wearable technology can play 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:29.600 a role in the fight against the pandemic. They want 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:32.159 to see if our fitbits can help predict whether users 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:36.440 have contracted COVID nineteen days before they exhibit any discernible 0:04:36.440 --> 0:04:39.920 symptoms like a fever. A lot of the time, when 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:44.039 people talk about predicting trends and infectious diseases like COVID nineteen, 0:04:44.720 --> 0:04:48.440 they compare it to predicting the weather. Neither is a 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:52.599 sure science. You can just make an educated guess. But 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:55.600 to help more accurately predict the weather, we have all 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:59.600 kinds of sensors in place all over the world. Wearables 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:12.000 function in the same way for disease prediction. Initially, the 0:05:12.080 --> 0:05:15.000 makers of devices like the fitbit how did the ability 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:18.320 of wearables to help users count steps, stay active, or 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:22.320 monitor sleep. Increasingly, though they have also been used to 0:05:22.440 --> 0:05:26.920 detect illness. Past research has shown that this biometric data 0:05:27.240 --> 0:05:31.279 could support health problems, including high blood pressure, heart arrhythmia 0:05:31.279 --> 0:05:35.200 as an early stage cancer. If wearables could accurately detect 0:05:35.240 --> 0:05:38.880 COVID nineteen cases early on, it could aid efforts to 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:42.839 help monitor new outbreaks of the virus. This could take 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:46.240 some of the pressure off of testing and contact tracing programs. 0:05:47.160 --> 0:05:50.159 Jennifer Ratten is leading one of these studies at SCRIPTS 0:05:50.200 --> 0:05:54.960 Translational Research Insto in San Diego. California. She says they're 0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:58.159 basing these studies off of previous research that was published 0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:02.000 this January. But we found is that we had a 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:05.200 data set of two hundred thousand Fitbit users who were 0:06:05.240 --> 0:06:07.719 their device for about two years, and we found that 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:12.599 if you identified weeks where individuals had arresting heart rate 0:06:12.680 --> 0:06:16.240 and sleep that was greater than their individual norm or 0:06:16.279 --> 0:06:20.560 average during the study period, that the proportion of Fitbit 0:06:20.680 --> 0:06:24.479 users each week who had this abnormal data was predictive 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:29.400 of influenza like illness, and we were able to predict 0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:33.680 influenza like illness in real time. Jennifer says that this 0:06:33.760 --> 0:06:36.919 kind of data could be really powerful when responding to 0:06:36.960 --> 0:06:40.719 COVID nineteen Scripts is monitoring the heart rate of about 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:45.000 thirty volunteers to look for early signs of disease. So 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:48.680 getting this data in real time has the potential to 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:53.120 really improve outbreak response and to be able to identify 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:56.039 when things are occurring and also be able to zoom 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.840 in and identify kind of where those hot spots are. 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:02.320 So in U s um one in five Americans where's 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:05.960 a smart watch or fitness tracker, So there's the potential 0:07:06.040 --> 0:07:09.800 to really harness a large amount of data for many 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:21.720 users across the country. Like a lot of other research groups, 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:24.680 Jennifer's work focuses on the heart rate data that these 0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:28.240 devices collect. Heart rate, it turns out, can be a 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:32.480 really good predictor of whether someone is getting sick. Jennifer 0:07:32.520 --> 0:07:35.320 says heart rate data can actually be a far better 0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:38.960 predictor of illness than more noticeable symptoms like a fever. 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:43.559 That's especially true for COVID nineteen since so many people 0:07:43.640 --> 0:07:47.480 are asymptomatic, and often it seems there are changes to 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:50.400 a person's heart rate long before other symptoms of an 0:07:50.440 --> 0:07:55.280 illness appear. Similar research from Stanford showed that wearables were 0:07:55.280 --> 0:07:58.800 able to detect an infection as early as nine days 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:03.559 before someone started showing symptoms of COVID nineteen. Jennifer also 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:07.120 says that because many people are asymptomatic, trying to use 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:11.080 data like temperature can miss a lot of cases. So 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:15.200 lots of people with COVID don't um have a fever, 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:18.960 they don't develop one early on in their infection, and 0:08:19.000 --> 0:08:22.840 there's also many asymptomatic cases out there who don't develop 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:27.360 any symptoms. So we think that just looking at temperature 0:08:27.360 --> 0:08:30.840 alone you might miss many cases out there, but we 0:08:30.960 --> 0:08:34.920 think that rusting heart rate and these other metrics collected 0:08:34.960 --> 0:08:40.120 with your wearables can potentially be an earlier warning signal 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:44.320 that something's going on um and the Again, the great 0:08:44.360 --> 0:08:47.319 thing about the wearables is that we get each person's 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:51.480 unique individual baseline, so that we're not comparing you to 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:55.720 the population average. We're comparing you to yourself over time, 0:08:56.240 --> 0:08:59.760 and that allows us to kind of identify more subtle 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:03.240 changes in your data that may indicate something's going on 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:06.360 in your health. This data could not only predict who's 0:09:06.400 --> 0:09:10.880 getting sick, but monitor a huge number of people relatively easily. 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:15.080 Kimnall is the director of Telehealth at stony Brook University 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:18.200 on Long Island in New York. She has her own 0:09:18.200 --> 0:09:22.480 wearable study. She says that this information could potentially be 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:27.120 really valuable in helping states to reopen safely. The hope 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:32.400 is that we as a society define ways to determine 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:36.160 risk for COVID, and you know, whoever determines that wins 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:42.520 the grand prize of helping us reopen safely. The question 0:09:42.520 --> 0:09:44.760 where really is asking is what in the role of 0:09:44.800 --> 0:09:48.680 technology and wearable tech in in contributing to that To 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:51.760 answering that question of who's at high risk and who's 0:09:51.760 --> 0:09:54.439 going to get sick and we don't know that yet, 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:58.800 you know. And so there's promise that if we have 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:02.920 something that's passed of enough that gives us early flat 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:08.240 red flags, that we can then act upon that data. 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:11.360 Kim had COVID nineteen herself, and that was a big 0:10:11.400 --> 0:10:15.200 part of what motivated her work. I was very committed 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:17.600 to understanding my own risk. You know, what was my 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:19.920 temperature going to be and will I get sick again? 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:24.120 These are these are the premise um questions, hypotheses that 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:27.720 we have in the study. She says. The data isn't 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:31.120 just important for public health officials, it could also help 0:10:31.160 --> 0:10:35.479 people make better decisions in their own daily lives. Devices 0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:38.920 that can reliably predict the onset of COVID nineteen could 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:43.760 play a major role in reopening workplaces, restaurants, and stores safely. 0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:47.800 A company could, for example, encourage returning workers to use 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:50.480 an Apple Watch to look for signs there in early 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:53.720 stages of the illness. The NBA is planning to do 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:57.719 just that. As basketball games resume in July. You can 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:00.400 say like, well, my temperature is rising and have a 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:03.559 fever yet, But my ring tells me that I might 0:11:03.800 --> 0:11:06.480 basick of COVID, let me sell me, let me social distance. 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:09.840 That would be the dream of what we could aspire 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:14.319 towards if we had the ability to know for certain 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.960 we could rely on that data On an individual level. 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:22.720 Of course, that data cannot definitively tell you whether you're 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:26.160 coming down with COVID nineteen or the flu, or maybe 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:29.600 just experiencing an elevated heart rate because you're excited about 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:33.680 a first date. But when taken together, all of that 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:46.760 data suddenly becomes meaningful. That was Kristin V. Brown. You 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:50.560 can read her story with Tom Giles Unwearables in the 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:55.440 June two issue of Bloomberg Business Week or at Bloomberg 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:58.959 dot com. And that's our show Today. For coverage of 0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:01.760 the outbreak from one hut and twenty bureaus around the world, 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:06.640 visit Bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if you like 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:09.720 the show, please leave us a review and a rating 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:13.360 on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:18.240 help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily 0:12:18.400 --> 0:12:22.680 edition is produced by topor Foreheads, Jordan Gas Pure Magnus 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:27.600 Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported 0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:32.760 by Kristin V. Brown. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:37.360 editors are Rick Shine and Francesca Levy. Francesca Levy is 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:40.920 Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.