WEBVTT - CFR's Rebecca Lissner Talks Trump Escalating Threats on Iran

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the interview of the day. It would have

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<v Speaker 2>been true a month ago, six months ago, it's even

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<v Speaker 2>more so this morning. Exceptionally important. Rebecca Listener, senior Fellow

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<v Speaker 2>US Policy that Council on Foreign Relations, her service to

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<v Speaker 2>the Biden administration is it noted? And Rebecca, we could

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<v Speaker 2>go on and on today, let me start with every

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<v Speaker 2>curmudgeon out there, Rebecca saying, college isn't like what it

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<v Speaker 2>used to be. We had to go to college. We

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<v Speaker 2>had to read real books. Forget about Furman and X ten.

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<v Speaker 2>At Harvard, you survived social studies at Harvard. What was

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<v Speaker 2>it like sophomore year where with a gun to your

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<v Speaker 2>head you had to read forty seven full text in history?

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<v Speaker 2>What was social studies like?

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<v Speaker 1>Social studies was a pressure cooker. It was the Harvard

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<v Speaker 1>students who wanted to apply again to get into an

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<v Speaker 1>extra exclusive, extra elite concentration at the college and commit

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<v Speaker 1>sophomore year to writing a senior thesis their senior year.

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<v Speaker 1>So it was definitely the nerds of the nerves. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a great grounding and how you think about

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<v Speaker 1>the world.

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<v Speaker 2>We should note that Bill Ackman survived this ages ago

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<v Speaker 2>as well. Rebecca, I want to talk about the machinery

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<v Speaker 2>at the White House. You have been intimately involved in

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<v Speaker 2>National Security Council, all the different fancy names for these councils.

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<v Speaker 2>It seems broken and busted at the White House. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>who's advising President Trump?

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<v Speaker 1>No question, it's broken and busted. And look, I think

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<v Speaker 1>Vice President Vance advises the president. Secretary of State and

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<v Speaker 1>National Security Advisor Marco Rubio advises the President. Secretary hegsach

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<v Speaker 1>General Cain, obviously White House Chief of Staff Susie Wilds

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<v Speaker 1>and her deputy, Stephen Miller. But at the end of

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<v Speaker 1>the day, it's very clear that the President really only

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<v Speaker 1>takes his own counsel and thinking ahead to what might

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<v Speaker 1>happen tonight with the looming deadline on Iran. Even the

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<v Speaker 1>White House Press secretary said only President Trump knows what

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<v Speaker 1>he's going to do.

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<v Speaker 2>And Paul I only counted one general when she mentioned

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<v Speaker 2>this one admiral right, General Kine. I mean compared to

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<v Speaker 2>the first administration, where generalists is what I call.

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<v Speaker 3>It, Rebecca, what do you believe at this stage is

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<v Speaker 3>a most likely off ramp for President Trump, the US

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<v Speaker 3>and Israel's or relates to this war.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it's clear he's looking for a way out, but

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<v Speaker 1>he hasn't quite found it yet. I think that's why

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<v Speaker 1>we have this really monstrous eight pm deadline tonight where

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump has said, if Iran doesn't come to the

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<v Speaker 1>table for negotiations doesn't reopen the straight of hor Moods

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<v Speaker 1>by eight pm Eastern tonight, he's going to bomb them

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<v Speaker 1>back into the Stone ages. He's threatened a new infrastructure

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<v Speaker 1>Day that takes on power plans and ridges. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>some would say that these could constitute war crimes, but

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<v Speaker 1>he's looking for a way to de escalate this conflict

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<v Speaker 1>because he entered into it with no plan and no

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<v Speaker 1>strategy and now is having trouble finding a way out.

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<v Speaker 1>So my expectation is he's hoping to bridge the gap

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<v Speaker 1>between what are two very maximalist set of demands that

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<v Speaker 1>both sides have put on the table and negotiations and

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<v Speaker 1>try to really open a diplomatic path that helps at

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<v Speaker 1>least get to a ceasefire that puts a pause on

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<v Speaker 1>this conflict and takes some pressure off the markets.

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<v Speaker 3>Rebecca, it seems you know, for a lot of us

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<v Speaker 3>that probably aren't that familiar with this part of the world.

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<v Speaker 3>We now understand how important the Strait of Hormuz is

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<v Speaker 3>for global oil trade as well as just global trade

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<v Speaker 3>in general. Is there a solution here that I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>you have to have Iran basically blessing the opening of

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<v Speaker 3>the Strait of homers don't you.

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<v Speaker 1>That's exactly right. I think that this war has led

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<v Speaker 1>a very dangerous g out of the bottle.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>Iran now knows that with pretty minimal effort it can

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<v Speaker 1>close the Strait of Horror Moves, and that effectively the

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<v Speaker 1>world will tolerate it doing so. So I am very

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<v Speaker 1>skeptical that we will return to anything that resembles the

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<v Speaker 1>status quo anti in the Strait of Horror moves. I

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<v Speaker 1>think we've entered a new normal. What I think is

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<v Speaker 1>the most likely outcome looking at these reports that Iran

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<v Speaker 1>and Oman are now talking about creating some sort of

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<v Speaker 1>framework for reopening the strait, is that Iran, in the

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<v Speaker 1>context of negotiations, probably does agree to reopen the strait

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<v Speaker 1>to transit, but they do so within a tolling system.

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<v Speaker 1>That there's a toll that's probably split between Iran and Oman,

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<v Speaker 1>which of course is the country on the other side

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<v Speaker 1>of the strait from Iran, and that Iran justifies this

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<v Speaker 1>by saying it's using its portion of the toll reconstruction

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<v Speaker 1>after the war.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to give some insight here, Folst. Rebecca's written

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<v Speaker 2>a blistering essay on realism, and this of course goes

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<v Speaker 2>back advent John Quincy Adams and runs through all of

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<v Speaker 2>the modern pragmatic realistic effort, maybe codified by John Meerscheimer

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<v Speaker 2>and sh Cargo. Right now, Rebecca, what is a strategy?

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<v Speaker 2>Obviously realism is what they're going to say at the

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<v Speaker 2>White House? Or is it just a busted theory that

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<v Speaker 2>Henry Kissinger wouldn't recognize.

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<v Speaker 1>So the Trump administration has tried to paint itself as realist,

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<v Speaker 1>as clear eyed, as pragmatic, as being the world as

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<v Speaker 1>it is right, not trying to transform it in some

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<v Speaker 1>idealistic fashion. But the problem is that realists properly understood

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<v Speaker 1>the real realism would dictate a clear focus on the

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<v Speaker 1>national interest and also a clear focus on great power competition.

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<v Speaker 1>It would advise against regime change, wars and getting further

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<v Speaker 1>bogged down in the Middle East, which is a region

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<v Speaker 1>that President Trump himself has said in his own strategy

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<v Speaker 1>documents shouldn't be a top priority for the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>So the problem is that this war really goes against

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<v Speaker 1>all of the council that realism would offer, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>part of why we're so stuck. But it's also part

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<v Speaker 1>of why this war is putting the United States at

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<v Speaker 1>a global strategic deficit, because by further bogging US down

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<v Speaker 1>in the Middle East and expending all kinds of US

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<v Speaker 1>munitions and military material in this war with Iran, we're

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<v Speaker 1>by the day becoming less and less prepared for any

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<v Speaker 1>future conflict with China and maybe even making it more likely.

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<v Speaker 3>Rebecca, the US entered into this war with little to

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<v Speaker 3>no consultation with our traditional allies. What's the repercussions there?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think NATO's in dire straits? And we even

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<v Speaker 1>saw the President say yesterday once again that he was

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<v Speaker 1>thinking about saying, quote bye bye to NATO. And as

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<v Speaker 1>I've written elsewhere, I think we're in a position now

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<v Speaker 1>where NATO has become a zombie alliance. It continues to

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<v Speaker 1>exist on paper. There are bureaucrats and military officials that

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<v Speaker 1>meet in Brussels, But who now really believes that President

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<v Speaker 1>Trump would come to the defense of a NATO ally

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<v Speaker 1>if attacked. It's a grave situation. It's certainly not what

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<v Speaker 1>I would have hoped to see. I do think that,

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<v Speaker 1>coming on the heels of the Greenland crisis and then

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<v Speaker 1>now with Trump calling on allies to help reopen the

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<v Speaker 1>strait of Horrormus and them largely declining to do so,

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<v Speaker 1>we're in a very tough situation.

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<v Speaker 2>Rebecca, I got a minute and a half at best.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you want from Secretary Rubio?

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Rubio has a very important role to play

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<v Speaker 1>and his dual hadded national Security Advisor Secretary of State role,

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<v Speaker 1>and what I hope to see from him, frankly, is

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<v Speaker 1>moderation of some of the President's worst instincts. The recent

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<v Speaker 1>reports coming out of the White House suggest that President

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<v Speaker 1>Trump is quote unquote bloodthirsty, that he's now become the

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<v Speaker 1>voice calling for escalation. I hope that Secretary Rubio could

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<v Speaker 1>be a voice of caution and a voice of reason

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<v Speaker 1>as the United States tries to find a way out

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<v Speaker 1>of here. And in particular, I think Secretary Rubio has

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<v Speaker 1>been rightly focused this whole time throughout this administration on

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<v Speaker 1>trying to get China policy right. He has an all

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<v Speaker 1>always have the power to shape it, especially as we

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<v Speaker 1>have the convergence of this war, plus the president's trip

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<v Speaker 1>to Beijing in mid May. I hope that Secretary of

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<v Speaker 1>Rubio can keep our China policy on track.

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<v Speaker 2>We have to run. Rebecca, don't be a stranger. Congratulations

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<v Speaker 2>have the impact you're having at the Council on Foreign Relations,

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<v Speaker 2>Rebecca listener uh, their surviving social studies. I love