Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: This is the interview of the day. It would have
Speaker 2: been true a month ago, six months ago, it's even
Speaker 2: more so this morning. Exceptionally important. Rebecca Listener, senior Fellow
Speaker 2: US Policy that Council on Foreign Relations, her service to
Speaker 2: the Biden administration is it noted? And Rebecca, we could
Speaker 2: go on and on today, let me start with every
Speaker 2: curmudgeon out there, Rebecca saying, college isn't like what it
Speaker 2: used to be. We had to go to college. We
Speaker 2: had to read real books. Forget about Furman and X ten.
Speaker 2: At Harvard, you survived social studies at Harvard. What was
Speaker 2: it like sophomore year where with a gun to your
Speaker 2: head you had to read forty seven full text in history?
Speaker 2: What was social studies like?
Speaker 1: Social studies was a pressure cooker. It was the Harvard
Speaker 1: students who wanted to apply again to get into an
Speaker 1: extra exclusive, extra elite concentration at the college and commit
Speaker 1: sophomore year to writing a senior thesis their senior year.
Speaker 1: So it was definitely the nerds of the nerves. But
Speaker 1: you know, a great grounding and how you think about
Speaker 1: the world.
Speaker 2: We should note that Bill Ackman survived this ages ago
Speaker 2: as well. Rebecca, I want to talk about the machinery
Speaker 2: at the White House. You have been intimately involved in
Speaker 2: National Security Council, all the different fancy names for these councils.
Speaker 2: It seems broken and busted at the White House. Now,
Speaker 2: who's advising President Trump?
Speaker 1: No question, it's broken and busted. And look, I think
Speaker 1: Vice President Vance advises the president. Secretary of State and
Speaker 1: National Security Advisor Marco Rubio advises the President. Secretary hegsach
Speaker 1: General Cain, obviously White House Chief of Staff Susie Wilds
Speaker 1: and her deputy, Stephen Miller. But at the end of
Speaker 1: the day, it's very clear that the President really only
Speaker 1: takes his own counsel and thinking ahead to what might
Speaker 1: happen tonight with the looming deadline on Iran. Even the
Speaker 1: White House Press secretary said only President Trump knows what
Speaker 1: he's going to do.
Speaker 2: And Paul I only counted one general when she mentioned
Speaker 2: this one admiral right, General Kine. I mean compared to
Speaker 2: the first administration, where generalists is what I call.
Speaker 3: It, Rebecca, what do you believe at this stage is
Speaker 3: a most likely off ramp for President Trump, the US
Speaker 3: and Israel's or relates to this war.
Speaker 1: Well, it's clear he's looking for a way out, but
Speaker 1: he hasn't quite found it yet. I think that's why
Speaker 1: we have this really monstrous eight pm deadline tonight where
Speaker 1: President Trump has said, if Iran doesn't come to the
Speaker 1: table for negotiations doesn't reopen the straight of hor Moods
Speaker 1: by eight pm Eastern tonight, he's going to bomb them
Speaker 1: back into the Stone ages. He's threatened a new infrastructure
Speaker 1: Day that takes on power plans and ridges. You know,
Speaker 1: some would say that these could constitute war crimes, but
Speaker 1: he's looking for a way to de escalate this conflict
Speaker 1: because he entered into it with no plan and no
Speaker 1: strategy and now is having trouble finding a way out.
Speaker 1: So my expectation is he's hoping to bridge the gap
Speaker 1: between what are two very maximalist set of demands that
Speaker 1: both sides have put on the table and negotiations and
Speaker 1: try to really open a diplomatic path that helps at
Speaker 1: least get to a ceasefire that puts a pause on
Speaker 1: this conflict and takes some pressure off the markets.
Speaker 3: Rebecca, it seems you know, for a lot of us
Speaker 3: that probably aren't that familiar with this part of the world.
Speaker 3: We now understand how important the Strait of Hormuz is
Speaker 3: for global oil trade as well as just global trade
Speaker 3: in general. Is there a solution here that I mean,
Speaker 3: you have to have Iran basically blessing the opening of
Speaker 3: the Strait of homers don't you.
Speaker 1: That's exactly right. I think that this war has led
Speaker 1: a very dangerous g out of the bottle.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: Iran now knows that with pretty minimal effort it can
Speaker 1: close the Strait of Horror Moves, and that effectively the
Speaker 1: world will tolerate it doing so. So I am very
Speaker 1: skeptical that we will return to anything that resembles the
Speaker 1: status quo anti in the Strait of Horror moves. I
Speaker 1: think we've entered a new normal. What I think is
Speaker 1: the most likely outcome looking at these reports that Iran
Speaker 1: and Oman are now talking about creating some sort of
Speaker 1: framework for reopening the strait, is that Iran, in the
Speaker 1: context of negotiations, probably does agree to reopen the strait
Speaker 1: to transit, but they do so within a tolling system.
Speaker 1: That there's a toll that's probably split between Iran and Oman,
Speaker 1: which of course is the country on the other side
Speaker 1: of the strait from Iran, and that Iran justifies this
Speaker 1: by saying it's using its portion of the toll reconstruction
Speaker 1: after the war.
Speaker 2: I want to give some insight here, Folst. Rebecca's written
Speaker 2: a blistering essay on realism, and this of course goes
Speaker 2: back advent John Quincy Adams and runs through all of
Speaker 2: the modern pragmatic realistic effort, maybe codified by John Meerscheimer
Speaker 2: and sh Cargo. Right now, Rebecca, what is a strategy?
Speaker 2: Obviously realism is what they're going to say at the
Speaker 2: White House? Or is it just a busted theory that
Speaker 2: Henry Kissinger wouldn't recognize.
Speaker 1: So the Trump administration has tried to paint itself as realist,
Speaker 1: as clear eyed, as pragmatic, as being the world as
Speaker 1: it is right, not trying to transform it in some
Speaker 1: idealistic fashion. But the problem is that realists properly understood
Speaker 1: the real realism would dictate a clear focus on the
Speaker 1: national interest and also a clear focus on great power competition.
Speaker 1: It would advise against regime change, wars and getting further
Speaker 1: bogged down in the Middle East, which is a region
Speaker 1: that President Trump himself has said in his own strategy
Speaker 1: documents shouldn't be a top priority for the United States.
Speaker 1: So the problem is that this war really goes against
Speaker 1: all of the council that realism would offer, and that's
Speaker 1: part of why we're so stuck. But it's also part
Speaker 1: of why this war is putting the United States at
Speaker 1: a global strategic deficit, because by further bogging US down
Speaker 1: in the Middle East and expending all kinds of US
Speaker 1: munitions and military material in this war with Iran, we're
Speaker 1: by the day becoming less and less prepared for any
Speaker 1: future conflict with China and maybe even making it more likely.
Speaker 3: Rebecca, the US entered into this war with little to
Speaker 3: no consultation with our traditional allies. What's the repercussions there?
Speaker 1: Do you think NATO's in dire straits? And we even
Speaker 1: saw the President say yesterday once again that he was
Speaker 1: thinking about saying, quote bye bye to NATO. And as
Speaker 1: I've written elsewhere, I think we're in a position now
Speaker 1: where NATO has become a zombie alliance. It continues to
Speaker 1: exist on paper. There are bureaucrats and military officials that
Speaker 1: meet in Brussels, But who now really believes that President
Speaker 1: Trump would come to the defense of a NATO ally
Speaker 1: if attacked. It's a grave situation. It's certainly not what
Speaker 1: I would have hoped to see. I do think that,
Speaker 1: coming on the heels of the Greenland crisis and then
Speaker 1: now with Trump calling on allies to help reopen the
Speaker 1: strait of Horrormus and them largely declining to do so,
Speaker 1: we're in a very tough situation.
Speaker 2: Rebecca, I got a minute and a half at best.
Speaker 2: What do you want from Secretary Rubio?
Speaker 1: Secretary of Rubio has a very important role to play
Speaker 1: and his dual hadded national Security Advisor Secretary of State role,
Speaker 1: and what I hope to see from him, frankly, is
Speaker 1: moderation of some of the President's worst instincts. The recent
Speaker 1: reports coming out of the White House suggest that President
Speaker 1: Trump is quote unquote bloodthirsty, that he's now become the
Speaker 1: voice calling for escalation. I hope that Secretary Rubio could
Speaker 1: be a voice of caution and a voice of reason
Speaker 1: as the United States tries to find a way out
Speaker 1: of here. And in particular, I think Secretary Rubio has
Speaker 1: been rightly focused this whole time throughout this administration on
Speaker 1: trying to get China policy right. He has an all
Speaker 1: always have the power to shape it, especially as we
Speaker 1: have the convergence of this war, plus the president's trip
Speaker 1: to Beijing in mid May. I hope that Secretary of
Speaker 1: Rubio can keep our China policy on track.
Speaker 2: We have to run. Rebecca, don't be a stranger. Congratulations
Speaker 2: have the impact you're having at the Council on Foreign Relations,
Speaker 2: Rebecca listener uh, their surviving social studies. I love