Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays
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Speaker 3: And selser the young Turks will say invented the business
Speaker 3: and she changed the national dialogue this week, and thank
Speaker 3: you so much for joining us. Full disclosure, folks, I
Speaker 3: work with in years ago with Bloomberg News, so I
Speaker 3: just want to get that out of the way. And
Speaker 3: how has polling changed with the advent of the cell phone.
Speaker 4: Well, first, let me say that the industry was invented
Speaker 4: by George Gallup, who grew up in Jefferson, Iowa. So
Speaker 4: the Iowa lineage is strong. I'll give you that question
Speaker 4: about cell phones. We didn't really need to dial cell
Speaker 4: phones until two thousand and eight, but now they are
Speaker 4: a routine part of our practice. That is, we draw
Speaker 4: a random sample of cell phone numbers and of landline numbers,
Speaker 4: and it's as easy as it ever once was in
Speaker 4: some phones.
Speaker 3: Paul Sweeney and I compare our phones. Paul got fourteen
Speaker 3: calls this weekend I got ten calls this weekend. We're
Speaker 3: not answering the phone. How do you account for that?
Speaker 3: In Iowa? As you say, Harris could win.
Speaker 4: You know, what I like to say is for every
Speaker 4: one of you, Tom that is not answering your phone,
Speaker 4: there's a doppelganger who who does answer their phone, and
Speaker 4: they reflect what it is that you would if you
Speaker 4: talk to us. You know, I'm kind of teasing there.
Speaker 4: We have a response rate that is better than the
Speaker 4: natural national average. What it says on your phone is
Speaker 4: unknown caller, So it doesn't say possible spam, It doesn't
Speaker 4: do anything that might tip you off. And if you
Speaker 4: do answer, the first thing that you hear the interviewer
Speaker 4: say is that they're calling from the Iowa poll. And
Speaker 4: I think I give that great credit for our ability
Speaker 4: to get a good cross section of Iowans.
Speaker 5: And talk to us about your latest poll. What's it
Speaker 5: tell you these days?
Speaker 4: Well, it was a shock, believe you me, when I
Speaker 4: went into the office after the first night of interviewing.
Speaker 4: No one would expect that Kamala Harris would have leapfrogged
Speaker 4: over Donald Trump into the lead. We had seen her
Speaker 4: move in the September poll from where we were measuring
Speaker 4: Joe Biden as the nominee back in June. But and
Speaker 4: this is really just a continuation of that. She now
Speaker 4: leads by three points. I think forty seven forty four, right, who.
Speaker 5: So what's driving this strength for vice president?
Speaker 4: It's a and it's a continuation of what we saw
Speaker 4: in September, which is the difference between June and September.
Speaker 4: Were more people, dramatically more people saying that they were
Speaker 4: likely to vote. That measurement would be I'm going to
Speaker 4: definitely vote. If you just say probably, we don't count that,
Speaker 4: and that that increase accounted for Kamala Harris's bump. So
Speaker 4: less than one percent of people went for Donald Trump
Speaker 4: when thirteen percent went for Kamala Harris. And that was
Speaker 4: the difference between June. It was an eighteen point gap
Speaker 4: in June, a four point gap in September. That continues
Speaker 4: with our October poll in that the demographics more likely
Speaker 4: than average to say they will definitely vote or that
Speaker 4: they've already voted, are strong Harris demographics. It's women, it's
Speaker 4: college educated, it's younger people, it's older people as wells
Speaker 4: of voting. If your age sixty four and over is
Speaker 4: like ninety four percent. That's a really big number. And
Speaker 4: she does very well with older Iowans. In fact, her
Speaker 4: she wins by twenty points with Iowa women and just
Speaker 4: fourteen go for Trump. The margin is fourteen for Trump
Speaker 4: if you journey. One thing crystal clear about the importance
Speaker 4: of older people is older women. Her ratio of win
Speaker 4: in women age sixty five and over is two to one. Interesting,
Speaker 4: that's a huge part of her success.
Speaker 3: And Seltzer where us folks, of course iconic with a
Speaker 3: des Moines register and now on her own she is
Speaker 3: the polster that the polsters study in terms of accuracy.
Speaker 3: In all We're thrilled to have here Bob Woodward with
Speaker 3: us later in the hour and Seltzer, I want to
Speaker 3: go on. I mean, I get des Moines and all that,
Speaker 3: and aims, okay, fine, Chickasaw County. I'm two counties in
Speaker 3: from the Minnesota border. It shows all of the political
Speaker 3: turmoil that Bob Woodard's written about for pushing fifty, here's
Speaker 3: here Barack Obama and then a huge swing to Trump.
Speaker 3: What did you learn in your polling about the Chickasaw
Speaker 3: counties of Iowa.
Speaker 4: Well, the Chickasaw counties in northwest Iowa. Those are still
Speaker 4: that's Trump territory. It's just that the margins aren't quite
Speaker 4: as big. I don't have data down to the county level.
Speaker 4: I wish somebody would pay me enough money that I
Speaker 4: could do that, but sorry, we got Okay. We can
Speaker 4: look at congressional districts, and this is really fascinating. The
Speaker 4: first congressional district which is now south east Iowa, so
Speaker 4: it includes Davenport and County south of that, it also
Speaker 4: includes Johnson County, which is the University of Iowa. And
Speaker 4: Marionette Miller Meeks is the incumbent. All of our congressional
Speaker 4: representatives are Republican. She won narrowly by six or eight
Speaker 4: votes the last time. She's being challenged by a University
Speaker 4: of Iowa professor. And the talk about abortion has been
Speaker 4: the critical element of this campaign. The Democrat is leading
Speaker 4: the incumbent Republican by twenty percentage points. So Iowa has
Speaker 4: a six week ban on abortion that went into effect
Speaker 4: this summer, and I think that that's responsible for the
Speaker 4: big gender gap with women, and I think that's also
Speaker 4: why Democrats may be doing better this time.
Speaker 5: And just from a historical perspective, how representative is Iowa
Speaker 5: for the overall United States? Chairs you think about your
Speaker 5: polls and the work you see.
Speaker 4: Well, if you're asking me to extrapolate, if it's happening
Speaker 4: in Iowa, is it happening in Wisconsin? Which is people
Speaker 4: make the assumption that we're very similar. I have made
Speaker 4: the argument that they're not that similar. Iowa has had
Speaker 4: a very strong Republican party that recruited good candidates, gotten
Speaker 4: good candidates elected, such that there is only one Democrat
Speaker 4: elected at the state wide level, and all of our
Speaker 4: Washington delegation is Republican. Both houses in the state House
Speaker 4: are Republican, and not by small margins. That's not the
Speaker 4: same way in Wisconsin. It's a little more mixed there.
Speaker 4: So I think what Iowa, if it is representative, it
Speaker 4: is that there is more going on under the surface
Speaker 4: in terms of the abortion issue, in terms of perhaps
Speaker 4: Trump fatigue that is turning this state that no one
Speaker 4: expected would shift blue into a state that might.
Speaker 3: And so so thedent. President Trump went after you this
Speaker 3: weekend after he didn't like your poll. I believe there
Speaker 3: was a period long ago where you did a poll
Speaker 3: that favored Trump and he loved you, then well, I
Speaker 3: want you to speak to people like Lisa Matteo, Michael Barr,
Speaker 3: Paul Sweeney Toime Keene exhausted by the single point certitude
Speaker 3: of your racket. When you look at the modern day
Speaker 3: cacophony of polling, the disrespect or throw aside of margin
Speaker 3: of error, how does ANCELSA react.
Speaker 4: Well, keep in mind the margin of error works both ways.
Speaker 4: So if you want it to say that the race could
Speaker 4: be closer than the numbers reflect, the race could also
Speaker 4: be equally likely a wider margin for the winner, and
Speaker 4: people forget that and it says though they want it
Speaker 4: to be close. We say that our best estimate is
Speaker 4: exactly what the numbers say, and any other estimate like
Speaker 4: well it's a virtual tie, is an inferior estimate, and
Speaker 4: that just the best, the highest probability of what's true
Speaker 4: are the actual numbers that we get.
Speaker 3: So I get a.
Speaker 4: Little you know, it's a point here, it's a point there,
Speaker 4: and people are wanting to make meaningful statements about that.
Speaker 4: I think that's been exhausting in terms of the other poles.
Speaker 4: So that my poll was not one point, and that
Speaker 4: my pole. You know, now is the leap frog for Harris.
Speaker 4: I think people are wondering if it's a canary in
Speaker 4: a coal mine, and that other states might be seeing
Speaker 4: similar things happening, but the methods of those polsters might
Speaker 4: not allow them to see it.
Speaker 3: Well, get this question and a listener just emailed it on.
Speaker 5: Tariffs and curious if tariffs are having an impact on
Speaker 5: this pole. I'm not sure farmers like tariffs.
Speaker 4: Well, when Trump instituted the tariffs, there was concern about it,
Speaker 4: but he was able to pull some money out of
Speaker 4: a different part of the budget and reimburse farmers for
Speaker 4: money that they had lost, so they ended up okay.
Speaker 4: I don't know that they're eager and excited to go
Speaker 4: back into tariff war because Iowa produces so much in
Speaker 4: the agriculture sector that it has to have foreign partners
Speaker 4: foreign markets for export. And that's been the case since
Speaker 4: Krushchef came to Iowa to learn how to do what
Speaker 4: Iowa does with agriculture. This is back in the nineteen fifties,
Speaker 4: so they rely on foreign trade. I think they're probably
Speaker 4: nervous about it. When we tested tariffs back when they
Speaker 4: were in force under Trump, the farmers and the rural
Speaker 4: areas were going along with it. They liked their president,
Speaker 4: they're going to support it.
Speaker 3: And we got to leave it there. Of course, I
Speaker 3: remember your work Eisenhower Stevenson in the early fifties before
Speaker 3: Khrushchef showed up in Iowa. She is and Seltzer. She
Speaker 3: changed a political dialogue this weekend across the nation. Huge
Speaker 3: response on YouTube from Republicans and Democrats to her work
Speaker 3: and Seltzer of Iowa.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 3: The Tots are losing to Aston Villa. I mean they're
Speaker 3: just not getting it done, all right, and they take
Speaker 3: Sun the Korean out Tots fire it up and crush.
Speaker 3: I say, crush. Jordan Rochester's Aston Villa. I thought he'd
Speaker 3: cancel on us joining us now from Queen Victoria Street,
Speaker 3: Jordan Rochester with Miszuo looking at the broader perspective, but
Speaker 3: of course also his chirm on fixed income. Jordan, you're
Speaker 3: sitting with Dominic Constant and Steve Shuddo, how do you
Speaker 3: play the election? Where's the Jordan Rochester opportunity?
Speaker 6: Well, it's clear to me, Tom, what's doing the next
Speaker 6: twenty four to forty six hours, which is whatever the
Speaker 6: trunk trades were do the old it and Friday was
Speaker 6: really painful after NFP because we've got a bit of
Speaker 6: a mess. But broadly speaking, for most of last week
Speaker 6: and so far today, we're seeing the dollar lower, we're
Speaker 6: seeing rates rally, the curve flatten, and we're seeing the
Speaker 6: probability of Trump's soften. That wasn't based on a view
Speaker 6: that Trump's not going to win. It's just what I
Speaker 6: call the pre event trade coming to an end, which
Speaker 6: is we've had this build up of Trump's odds. We've
Speaker 6: had a very strong run in the dollar thanks to
Speaker 6: the macro as well. But people go to lighten up
Speaker 6: into the event risk. They want to take profit and
Speaker 6: be ready to react because it truly is fifty to fifty.
Speaker 6: I lean towards saying Tom, the macro will still say
Speaker 6: buy the dollar whoever wins, but we're gonna have that
Speaker 6: knee jerk dollar lower if Harris wins for you to
Speaker 6: take advantage of it or you're going to miss it
Speaker 6: if Trump wins.
Speaker 3: Now, well, Missouri synthesized Jordan. This is important. Synthesize what
Speaker 3: Constant is doing in rashudo over in New York with
Speaker 3: what you're doing with London. Does that set you up
Speaker 3: for our resiliency in a higher interest rate regime?
Speaker 6: Well, I think with what Steve Reshouda has been talking about,
Speaker 6: the US is really on fire in terms of growth
Speaker 6: where things are with the labor market compared to Europe
Speaker 6: and Peers. So that's why we have I think we're
Speaker 6: gonna have a divergent monetary policy story. Maybe the Fed
Speaker 6: are not gonna be raising rates, that's a bit too
Speaker 6: farther stretch, but they won't be cutting rates as much
Speaker 6: as Europe needs to and will do. The UK is
Speaker 6: kind of in between, so that's naturally dollar bullish. You
Speaker 6: just then have these tariff policies by Trump versus non
Speaker 6: tariff policies by Harris. That really widens up to where
Speaker 6: we get to. So if you have a Trump victory,
Speaker 6: you're looking at one oh three in euro dollar. That's
Speaker 6: a big swing from where we are now by year end.
Speaker 6: Or if Harris wins, you're going to see euro dollar
Speaker 6: back to one twelve, So this huge binary outcome that
Speaker 6: the two sort of candidates will lead to. But then
Speaker 6: once we get to those equilibrium points, so let's say December,
Speaker 6: I think next year is still gonna be about us
Speaker 6: outperforming even if Harris wins.
Speaker 5: So Jordan at you know, running their fixed income, commodities
Speaker 5: and currencies. What are your clients across those asset classes.
Speaker 5: Are they hedging themselves going into tomorrow or they just
Speaker 5: taken the longer term saying, you know, I'm not too
Speaker 5: worried about the near term political. How are they playing it?
Speaker 6: I think, yeah, I think everyone's worried about the near
Speaker 6: term political because there's that gap risk, and I think
Speaker 6: a lot of people don't want to ruin their year
Speaker 6: to date p and ls as well. You know, we're
Speaker 6: just a month or so away from getting to that
Speaker 6: period where you lock in for the annual reports. So
Speaker 6: you're seeing a lot of people d risk. You've seen
Speaker 6: a lot of people uncertain, a lot of people saying
Speaker 6: the words I don't have an edge in this. The
Speaker 6: polsters don't know what it's going to be. The sort
Speaker 6: of modelers like Nate Silver don't really know what it's
Speaker 6: going to be everything says fifty to fifty. So you
Speaker 6: see a lightning at the risk. You're seeing business activities
Speaker 6: slow down, you're seeing volumes slow down. I think that
Speaker 6: today's one of the quieter days so far in the
Speaker 6: past week or two. But then everyone's ready to gear
Speaker 6: up once you know the outcome, because you it is
Speaker 6: an event that's difficult to predict, but still I think
Speaker 6: very tradeable after we know who's in the White House.
Speaker 5: So the dollar, though, I mean you go out six
Speaker 5: to twelve months, is there a bare case for this
Speaker 5: US dollar in your mind?
Speaker 7: There really is.
Speaker 6: There is a bare case, and it's one that a
Speaker 6: few charts say it's there, it's live, which is when
Speaker 6: the Fed got really dubbished on fifty basis points. It's
Speaker 6: if those impulses come back. And one of the charts
Speaker 6: that really screams that we've got a problem is the
Speaker 6: Conference Boards a Consumer Confidence which asks the question are
Speaker 6: jobs plentiful or are they hard to get? And if
Speaker 6: you plot that versus the United States unemployment rate, it
Speaker 6: is amazing at predicting where the big turns are going.
Speaker 6: All the way back I think to the seventies and
Speaker 6: right now it says that unemployment should be on a
Speaker 6: five handle. Now, COVID's ruined many good charts, and we
Speaker 6: know unemployment is not on a five handle.
Speaker 7: It's four point one.
Speaker 6: So we are far from where that signal is. Is
Speaker 6: that signal wrong or is it right? And we've just
Speaker 6: been staring at it for a while and ignoring it.
Speaker 7: I think the signal might be wrong.
Speaker 6: I think this time around the fiscal impulse in the
Speaker 6: US and all of the COVID charts that have come
Speaker 6: to a silent death, I think this might be another
Speaker 6: one to add on top of that pile. But you know,
Speaker 6: I might be wrong, and the Conference Board is screaming
Speaker 6: there's a problem, and that leads to the US outperformance changing,
Speaker 6: FED cutting by more than what's expected.
Speaker 5: So what do you think we're going to hear from
Speaker 5: the FED this coming Thursday?
Speaker 6: I feel like the FED and maybe the Bank of
Speaker 6: England as well, if they could, they'd hide under the
Speaker 6: bed sheets to just get through this week because it's
Speaker 6: pretty difficult for policymakers. You've got the FED who's got
Speaker 6: to have questions about, you know, what is the change
Speaker 6: in politics mean for their outcome? Their outlook they're going
Speaker 6: to say it doesn't matter. It does matter if you
Speaker 6: have tariffs with Trump, and it does matter if you
Speaker 6: have large fiscal And I think back to twenty sixteen,
Speaker 6: we were at a very tepid stage of the hiking cycle,
Speaker 6: and when Trump got in, we did see an acceleration
Speaker 6: in rate hikes. So it could be the case that
Speaker 6: if Trump gets in these cuts that were seeing from
Speaker 6: the Fed, I think we'll see a twenty five basis
Speaker 6: point cut, then maybe doubts about whether they go ahead
Speaker 6: in December or January. That's kind of where we're at.
Speaker 3: Excuse me, Jordan, You're in the miszouo, which means I
Speaker 3: have to ask about Japan. Is Japan tradeable or is
Speaker 3: there so much uncertainty, including with the LDP challenges politically
Speaker 3: that you can't you can't get a visibility on yen
Speaker 3: out to the end of Q one twenty twenty five.
Speaker 6: I think it's very tradable. The politics has been very surprising. Essentially,
Speaker 6: what we've seen is the LDP stronghold on Japanese politics
Speaker 6: has weakened. They're quite likely to be either in a
Speaker 6: minority government or in a coalition agreement with other parties,
Speaker 6: and we still don't know the outcome of that. The
Speaker 6: twenty sixth of November is when an outcome needs to
Speaker 6: be determined. There'll have to be a vote in Parliament
Speaker 6: to say if we're going ahead or not. I think
Speaker 6: what could happen is we might have a coalition partner
Speaker 6: that leads to more dubbish policies on the boj might
Speaker 6: lead to less hawkishness on the yen, and it might
Speaker 6: lead to more fiscal spending.
Speaker 7: So that just all spells dolly and higher.
Speaker 6: The main problem with the politics though, humans can be
Speaker 6: flippant Tom, and if we get to one sixty and
Speaker 6: dolly yen, do we see efics intervention Again? That's when
Speaker 6: it becomes really untradeable because who wants to take the
Speaker 6: other side of the of the mof But I think
Speaker 6: for the time being, dolly en high's easier if Trump wins.
Speaker 6: When we get to that one sixty level, we have
Speaker 6: to have a scratch and think, oh we're gonna have
Speaker 6: intervention here.
Speaker 7: I think no, Given the politicals.
Speaker 3: Very quickly you're linked into gold. I mean, I know
Speaker 3: that's off your remit, but if I get a one
Speaker 3: sixty yen, what does that do to gold in the
Speaker 3: Pacific Rim.
Speaker 7: Well, it's the same story.
Speaker 6: Gold's been one of the largest that performers this year
Speaker 6: because of the situation with sanctions, risks and tariffs. It's
Speaker 6: detached from real yields in the US, it used to
Speaker 6: be perfectly correlated for most part. If real yields and
Speaker 6: Dolly and gold split, who's the buyer and the buyer
Speaker 6: has been central banks. I think it's something that we're
Speaker 6: going to see faded, so gold suffers. If Trump doesn't win,
Speaker 6: it will definitely be a long term story of central bank.
Speaker 6: So clearly the buyers here try and avoid potential sanctions
Speaker 6: down the line.
Speaker 3: Joining you twenty seconds, Tottenham top five team this year.
Speaker 6: Now Aston Villa is this was just a blip, even
Speaker 6: though we lost four nil against them last year at home,
Speaker 6: which I went to that game and decided not to
Speaker 6: go to yesterday's game for a good reason.
Speaker 7: What was what a screamer by Totonham. I've got to.
Speaker 3: Say, obligatory soccer talk. We had to do that for
Speaker 3: New York City after the marathon. Jordan Rochester with Miszuu,
Speaker 3: thank you so much, greatly appreciate it.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: Joining us now on this selection, Eve, Bob word It's
Speaker 3: four hundred pages. The book is War. He's done many
Speaker 3: many the interviews on it. It is an insight into
Speaker 3: the Biden administration. I love what Robert Gates has said,
Speaker 3: who's served both political persuasions on Woodward. He has an
Speaker 3: extraordinary ability to get otherwise responsible adults to spill their
Speaker 3: guts to him. Bob Woodwards joins us on Election Bob.
Speaker 3: This weekend, I discovered someone in the key house so
Speaker 3: who had not seen all the president's men. I tried
Speaker 3: to explain to them that I was interviewing Robert Redford
Speaker 3: on Monday. In that movie, you show up with mister
Speaker 3: Katie in the courtroom and you say, my name's Bob Woodward.
Speaker 3: I'm from the Post and I wanted to ask you
Speaker 3: how you happened to come on this case. The rudeness
Speaker 3: and direction of Redford's questions is appalling. It's shocking. Where
Speaker 3: did you learn to ask questions so abrupt, so direct,
Speaker 3: so as Robert Gates would say, they all spill their guts?
Speaker 3: Where did you learn that skill?
Speaker 8: Oh? Well, well, look that morning I got called to
Speaker 8: the courthouse. This was the morning of the Watergate burglary.
Speaker 8: I've been covering night police for nine months. And I
Speaker 8: go to the courthouse and income these burglars dressed in
Speaker 8: business suits. I had never seen a burglar in a
Speaker 8: business suit. I've never seen a well dressed burglar. And
Speaker 8: the lead burglar announced reluctantly to the judge that he'd
Speaker 8: worked at the CIA, and I what CIA business suits?
Speaker 8: Five burglars? Elder? I mean, it was just like, oh,
Speaker 8: how do you not followed this story?
Speaker 3: I want to drive the conversation forward, Bob, on this
Speaker 3: election eve for a nation some would say, fighting with
Speaker 3: its concept of democracy. In the epilogue to or, you
Speaker 3: have a brilliant two sentences. Often I have said, only
Speaker 3: half jokingly, that when I wake up in the morning,
Speaker 3: my first thought is, quote, what are the bastards hiding? Unquote?
Speaker 3: So let's get two answers. What is mister Trump hiding
Speaker 3: this morning.
Speaker 8: Well, Trump is making very clear who he is, and
Speaker 8: it's two it's so visible. Let me just give you
Speaker 8: an example. I'm sorry this may sound a little boring,
Speaker 8: but it's right at the heart of your question. The
Speaker 8: people Trump when he was president chose to be close
Speaker 8: to him, people who've spent their lives defending our country.
Speaker 8: And let's look at what these people that Trump picked
Speaker 8: for key positions say about Trump. Now, former Chief of
Speaker 8: Staff John Kelly, you know, one of the most respected
Speaker 8: people in the military. This was Trump's selection to be
Speaker 8: the chief of staff at the White House. Kelly says
Speaker 8: of Trump, He's an idiot. It's pointless to try to
Speaker 8: convince him of anything. He's gone off the rails were
Speaker 8: in crazy town.
Speaker 3: Bob. Let me ask, also to your wonderful quote, what
Speaker 3: are the bestards hiding? What is Vice President Harris hiding
Speaker 3: into this election?
Speaker 8: Well, I think there are actually things that we don't
Speaker 8: know enough about. I had some time to work on
Speaker 8: how she deals with lots of issues, and it's very
Speaker 8: Let me get the right selection here, because she is tough.
Speaker 8: She is the person who goes and has meeting with
Speaker 8: net Yahoo, which I got the notes of and really
Speaker 8: get This was July twenty fifth of this year, just
Speaker 8: a couple of months ago, and she is she could
Speaker 8: not be tougher with net Yahoo, and the notes show
Speaker 8: her saying the following in a closed meeting with bb
Speaker 8: net Yahoo, I'm disturbed by the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
Speaker 8: People are starving. There are four thousand people per toilet.
Speaker 8: She really gets on him about this, and then she
Speaker 8: goes out in public and doesn't pull any punches and says,
Speaker 8: I'm not we cannot look away and become numb about
Speaker 8: what is happening in Gaza, and I will not be silent.
Speaker 8: I'm sorry, I'm giving a long answer.
Speaker 5: No, it's excellent Bob stepping away here. As we think
Speaker 5: about this election here, I can't help but wonder thinking
Speaker 5: about your work, your earliest work back of the Washington Post.
Speaker 5: What has become of the GOP party. It seems like
Speaker 5: it is now clearly the party of one former president
Speaker 5: dot Donald Trump. Is that the new GOP going forward?
Speaker 8: Well it is at the moment. We'll see. I know
Speaker 8: lots of Republicans and I know some who will say
Speaker 8: kind of public, oh, I support Trump. I like Trump
Speaker 8: because he's the force and the party. But privately it's
Speaker 8: thumbs down. They don't like Trump. Look who is Trump?
Speaker 8: This is the question that people need to answer. He
Speaker 8: doesn't like advice, he doesn't like democracy, doesn't like the Constitution,
Speaker 8: doesn't like truth.
Speaker 3: Joining us, Bob Woodward, we will continue with mister Woodward.
Speaker 3: We said good morning to all of you across the
Speaker 3: nation on this election eve. Onunder four hundred pages, War
Speaker 3: by Bob Woodward is simply a look into the Biden administration,
Speaker 3: framed by Netta who and putin Zelensky and of course
Speaker 3: Vice President Harris war spent out some time now, Pauls,
Speaker 3: when you pick it up with Bob Woodward, please.
Speaker 5: Bob tomorrow obviously election day, what will you be focusing on?
Speaker 5: Is it a state? Is it a certain candidate? Is
Speaker 5: it an issue? What are you going to be focusing
Speaker 5: on going into Well.
Speaker 8: I need to look at what happens in all the
Speaker 8: polls say it's razor thin. So who knows. I hope
Speaker 8: and that people will look at the candidates, particularly he
Speaker 8: was president for four years. He has said some things
Speaker 8: in this campaign that really and he really shows what's
Speaker 8: at state in this election. He is a danger to democracy.
Speaker 8: He is a danger to the United States. Why go back.
Speaker 8: My first interview with him was thirty five years ago
Speaker 8: when he was a real estate king in New York City,
Speaker 8: and then and even in interviews I did in the
Speaker 8: Oval Office with him when he was president. He's driven
Speaker 8: by instinct. He's got this idea that his in stinks,
Speaker 8: what his gut feel is is perfect. That's the way
Speaker 8: to go. Yeah, both Yet run a government on anyone's
Speaker 8: in stakes, you need a aim, you need some alternative views.
Speaker 8: And Brump is locked, as we know, locked into himself.
Speaker 3: For the nation. In the selection of Bob Woodward joins
Speaker 3: us of course forever with the Washington Post. Bob, I
Speaker 3: had to do something for the youngest afterthought a while back,
Speaker 3: I had to look at her Vietnam paper and that,
Speaker 3: and like a lot of us, you were in NROTC
Speaker 3: at Yale, and I was doing another act out at
Speaker 3: the time at Boulder. I completely avoided reading or thinking
Speaker 3: about Vietnam. And I enjoyed Max Hastings, you know him
Speaker 3: well from a Telegraph and his one volume on Vietnam
Speaker 3: as well, The Crucible, The Modern Democratic Party, McGovern and
Speaker 3: HHH in nineteen seventy two. The legacy that Vice President Harry.
Speaker 8: Hs being Hubert Humphrey.
Speaker 3: Hubert Humphrey, thank you. But the legacy that Harris carries forward.
Speaker 3: Do you see her as a change agent for Democratic
Speaker 3: Party theology or as the critics would say, Obama version four.
Speaker 8: Well, look, she's tough. She's going to President's school. She's
Speaker 8: very lucky in a sense, the country is very lucky
Speaker 8: that Biden, who was vice president, wants himself and didn't
Speaker 8: like to be cut out of things. He's made sure
Speaker 8: that she really is getting a graduate course in the presidency.
Speaker 8: She's at the meetings, the discussions, the debates. There are
Speaker 8: lots of signs of two qualities, independence and determination. And
Speaker 8: I think that that is a good thing. That's not
Speaker 8: a political judgment. It is what I was able to
Speaker 8: do in the reporting about what her course of going
Speaker 8: to President's school is. She's got a national security advisor
Speaker 8: named Phil Gordon, who is really experienced. Billy goes back
Speaker 8: a long time into the White House and the State
Speaker 8: Department and brings a lot of knowledge. Who's Donald Trump's
Speaker 8: national security advisor? His mouth, he will say whatever he wants,
Speaker 8: whatever springs in. That is the danger.
Speaker 3: We face, Bob. What one final question that dedicate for
Speaker 3: my lifelong friend and reporting partner Carl Bernstein. Do you
Speaker 3: guys talk a lot like is there a Bernstein? What
Speaker 3: would take on where this nation is going right now?
Speaker 8: Well, we do talk all the time, three four times
Speaker 8: a week, for sure. We saw each other recently we
Speaker 8: did an appearance together and just a few days ago
Speaker 8: in New York City. The question here is who's Trump?
Speaker 8: Who's Harris? One important credential that Harris has is the
Speaker 8: Secretary of Defense. Austin has a lot of respect for her.
Speaker 8: I describe new scenes in the book about what Austin
Speaker 8: has done and how he's been very tough with the
Speaker 8: Russian defense minister. Showgu and there's some transcripts I have
Speaker 8: that are in the book and you can see exactly
Speaker 8: what they said to each other. So there's hope. But
Speaker 8: to be a president and deal with this world situation
Speaker 8: now would stretch. Anyone would stretch. White Eisenhower would stretch.
Speaker 8: It is a very dangerous time. We've got to get
Speaker 8: it right and we got to be careful. And Trump
Speaker 8: is not a manager. Trump is not a person who
Speaker 8: really understands what the national interest is because there is
Speaker 8: a blockage, and that blockage is he only cares about himself.
Speaker 3: On the selection. We continue with Bob Woodward in a
Speaker 3: few more minutes with miss We're in celebration of his
Speaker 3: book War in the twenty books or so before that
Speaker 3: is well, we welcome all of you across this nation
Speaker 3: and Apple CarPlay, Android Otto, and of course this new
Speaker 3: technology YouTube. Paul, there was no YouTube. No, there was
Speaker 3: not when the Watergate thing was going on.
Speaker 5: No, exactly, Hey, Bob, if President Trump were to lose
Speaker 5: this election, is there an air apparent? Does trump Ism
Speaker 5: remain a political force? Is a jdvans Er someone like
Speaker 5: that out there in the wings?
Speaker 8: I mean, I mean, that's you know, that speculation. I
Speaker 8: don't know. What is very interesting is to listen to
Speaker 8: Trump in the last couple of days. He's in a
Speaker 8: very sour mood. And I think it was yesterday or
Speaker 8: the day before he said, and then this is the
Speaker 8: man who wants to be president again. He's very dark,
Speaker 8: very profane comments. And he said, this is a crooked country.
Speaker 8: Now imagine somebody, this is not a crooked country. It
Speaker 8: may become one if he becomes Pressenton.
Speaker 3: Bob Woodward I gotta ask one final question, and this
Speaker 3: is immense respect, and you know, we get a huge response.
Speaker 3: Republicans hate you, Democrats love you. I get it, folks.
Speaker 8: Bob Woodward with no, no, that's just not I know
Speaker 8: lots of Republicans who don't follow, don't march in line
Speaker 8: with Trump.
Speaker 3: Well, I'm running out of time, Bob Woodward, but he
Speaker 3: got one final question, with great respect for your career.
Speaker 3: Should newspapers endorse presidents.
Speaker 8: Well, then that's obviously up to them. At the Washington Post.
Speaker 8: There's a big controversy about the non endorsement. Now the
Speaker 8: Washington Post I know very well for over fifty two years.
Speaker 8: Is I say it's strong when the reporting is strong,
Speaker 8: as it has been now, I think it's been magnificent,
Speaker 8: and the editorial page should deal with the strength of
Speaker 8: that reporting. The editorial page needs to deal with reality,
Speaker 8: and the reporting is real and incredibly strong. To ignore
Speaker 8: it is to ignore reality. Not a good thing for
Speaker 8: any institute, right.
Speaker 3: Bob, Thank you so much. Bob Woodward on the selection
Speaker 3: eve across the nation, of course, foreverwhere the Washington Posts,
Speaker 3: the book is war.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 2: starting at seven am on applecar Play and Android Auto
Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
Speaker 2: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 3: Look at the front pages that Lisa Matteo our Lisa go.
Speaker 1: I know I forgot how to do this orund it's
Speaker 1: been too long, But since we're talking so much about election,
Speaker 1: I figure i'd start here. This is the Washington Post.
Speaker 1: It's saying this shift from election day to election season
Speaker 1: now because more people are casting the vote early so
Speaker 1: they see the difference.
Speaker 5: Quick number check.
Speaker 1: More than seventy four million people have already cast their
Speaker 1: ballots as of Saturday, and that's nearly forty seven percent
Speaker 1: the total number cast in the twenty twenty presidential election.
Speaker 1: So a lot of people doing it. So the experts
Speaker 1: are saying it's more election day has become this like
Speaker 1: more like end to voting rather than kind of the kickoff.
Speaker 3: What's your earliest memory of like going your parents and going.
Speaker 5: Yeah, definitely going into the definitely going into the polls
Speaker 5: with my parents back in the day.
Speaker 3: I'm sure my dad always.
Speaker 5: Went down to Republican side, you know, right down the thing.
Speaker 5: That's what he probably did.
Speaker 3: My father would pick me up and I got to
Speaker 3: pretend I was closing the handle thing, yep, and then
Speaker 3: you'd watch him click click, click, and maybe you could
Speaker 3: do one.
Speaker 1: Click as well.
Speaker 5: I think with technology we should know, like by eight
Speaker 5: o'clock tonight. But why we're doing write in votes? I
Speaker 5: have no idea which I did by that. I mailed
Speaker 5: it in.
Speaker 8: Did you vote for Taylor Swift?
Speaker 5: T Swift right in? But I just think there's no
Speaker 5: technology in the moment.
Speaker 3: Promise, where's my relationship with my kids or frankly with
Speaker 3: the dogs. If I'm doing a stupid write in ballot
Speaker 3: sterilized in the kitchen with the martini in my hand,
Speaker 3: That's not the way we did it. No, we're removed
Speaker 3: from it, Lisa.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it kind of reminds me of how Black
Speaker 1: Friday used to be this big thing and then now
Speaker 1: it's become like.
Speaker 3: We'll talk to Bob Woodward of the Washington we'll host
Speaker 3: what you got?
Speaker 1: Yes, okay, So why your grocery bill is becoming so expensive?
Speaker 1: This is from the Wall Street Journal. It really breaks
Speaker 1: it down because it goes to the distributors and they're
Speaker 1: saying that's the main reason, because you have the food
Speaker 1: companies are saying higher cost higher ingreding costs, labor costs.
Speaker 1: But the companies, a lot of the smaller food companies
Speaker 1: are saying that it's the distributors, you know, the ones
Speaker 1: that take the products from the store from the food makers.
Speaker 1: They bring it to the store, they sell it, and
Speaker 1: they ship them and they charge a lot of these
Speaker 1: extra fees, like a fee for launching a new flavor,
Speaker 1: a fee for getting a promotion at retail, a fee
Speaker 1: for if they supply too much product and it goes bad,
Speaker 1: there's a spoilage fee that they charge, you know. So
Speaker 1: there're a lot of these smaller food companies are saying
Speaker 1: they're stretched, like they don't know what to do because
Speaker 1: this is the and what they have to do is
Speaker 1: raise the prices. And that's the reason for it. It's
Speaker 1: the distributors out of the issue.
Speaker 5: Well, the food makers had some nice profits over the
Speaker 5: last several years because they were they told your right
Speaker 5: in front, and the quarterly earnings were able to raise prices,
Speaker 5: you know, the protic were able to raise prices and
Speaker 5: because our maybe because our costs went up, but the wholesalers.
Speaker 5: I didn't even think about that, Okay, Yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean there's private label sales hit record in twenty
Speaker 3: twenty three.
Speaker 5: We do a lot more private label than we ever
Speaker 5: did before.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you wonder where that'll be in three four, three
Speaker 3: four or five years. Very good?
Speaker 1: Nextly, okay, So, if you want to learn to talk
Speaker 1: like a banker, there are a lot of terms you
Speaker 1: need to know. And this is a business insider finance speak,
Speaker 1: you know, Wall Street lingo. So they asked a couple
Speaker 1: of industry insiders who came up with this list of words.
Speaker 1: So they said, for example, bakeoff. Bakeoff has been nothing
Speaker 1: to do with flowers.
Speaker 5: So many bakeoffs exactly right, and one of my clients
Speaker 5: had a bake off, I'd be very upset. No, no, no, no, no,
Speaker 5: this is my business. You're my business. We're not opening
Speaker 5: up the competition. You know who was here calling on
Speaker 5: you every month for the last five years. So bakeoff
Speaker 5: there happens.
Speaker 1: Didn't know they compete to the This like chosen as
Speaker 1: an advisor by a client. Color is another one, talking
Speaker 1: about pink or blue? This one okay, okay, So it's
Speaker 1: often used when bankers are asking for more of something
Speaker 1: like I want more color from you. Tell me more
Speaker 1: basically more information, more information.
Speaker 5: So that's color.
Speaker 1: Boil the ocean?
Speaker 5: Have you heard that one? No boil the ocean?
Speaker 1: Okay, because you can't actually boil the ocean, right, So
Speaker 1: it basically means someone doing a little bit too much
Speaker 1: or making something more complicated than it has to be.
Speaker 1: So no, no, no, you're boiling the ocean, like just
Speaker 1: break it down. You're being too complicated. So it has
Speaker 1: like a lot of these different terms that are pretty cool.
Speaker 1: So they want, you know, if you want.
Speaker 7: To be in the loop.
Speaker 1: Okay, so that's what these are.
Speaker 8: Used to be.
Speaker 5: In the loop you used to be used to be.
Speaker 1: But you still know these, like you know the bank
Speaker 1: off there you go, you're six five trust fund.
Speaker 5: I still have a whole room full of our desk
Speaker 5: full of loose sights, which about one hundred and twenty
Speaker 5: of them.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they still do, they still do loose.
Speaker 5: I don't know because they don't do. I mean I
Speaker 5: saw I just saw an old Wall Street Journal line
Speaker 5: line around the head the tombstone in the world. I mean,
Speaker 5: that's the first thing you went to in section see
Speaker 5: to see if your deals Tombstone made it was, Yeah,
Speaker 5: it was just like exactly last one.
Speaker 1: Yes, the future of footwear is spray on sneakers. Not
Speaker 1: sure if anyone in the bath On more thies for
Speaker 1: twenty six two point mild, But it's a Swiss sneaker
Speaker 1: maker brand. It's called On So it made with spray.
Speaker 1: So basically it's this new technology. It sprays the upper
Speaker 1: part of the sneaker onto this foot mold and it's
Speaker 1: done by a robotic arm. Okay, so the whole idea
Speaker 1: behind it is that you don't need to stitch it.
Speaker 1: It takes three minutes to make the shoe, and it
Speaker 1: could be the step toward automating an industry because the
Speaker 1: sneaker industry is very labor intensive, so it could be
Speaker 1: a change to the sneaker making industry. There costs you
Speaker 1: about three hundred bucks each, but now they're trying to
Speaker 1: bring the cheaper options in. But as they start to
Speaker 1: get this technology going, don't know it's supposed to fit
Speaker 1: like a sock. Don't know the support level or anything,
Speaker 1: but a spread on sneaker, I don't know.
Speaker 3: I'm I don't know where to begin with this other
Speaker 3: than I sat transfixed on a bed in Cape cod
Speaker 3: at two am one night, and there was a new mic,
Speaker 3: Lisa Mateo. Thank you so much for the newspapers. Are
Speaker 3: we doing this tomorrow special election day coverage? Thanks so much.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
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