WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 13 NFL Game (Ep. 393) 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:03.360 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:05.800 your bets. It's v Joey paid Joe Pisap and it's 0:00:05.800 --> 0:00:08.600 week thirteen in the NFL. It's time to look ahead 0:00:08.640 --> 0:00:11.960 to the games. And what a fun week end it 0:00:12.240 --> 0:00:16.200 was and holiday special too. Ooh baby, we nailed the 0:00:16.239 --> 0:00:20.520 Turkey Day parlay. Andrew Erickson and I hopefully you enjoyed Thanksgiving. 0:00:20.800 --> 0:00:24.600 Sure to Thanksgiving Nike. Your your bellies were full and 0:00:24.640 --> 0:00:26.880 your wallets were full, because that was a good one. 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.960 And I know these two cheeseheads loved the way that 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:33.760 Thanksgiving started off. Sam Hoppin, Pat Fitzmore is joining me 0:00:33.840 --> 0:00:35.640 today we're gonna break down the games. We've got a 0:00:35.680 --> 0:00:39.159 shorter slate week thirteen. Everyone's taking some time off for themselves, 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:41.559 but not us. No, no, we keep going here on 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:44.040 Betting Pros every single chance we get. Don't forget. Make 0:00:44.040 --> 0:00:46.280 sure you drop a comment below. Subscribe to the Betting 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:49.159 Pros YouTube channel right now. Do it and click that 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:50.760 belt to the Coast ding because you can win a 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:53.600 one year free premium upgrade to Betting Pros. So go 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:55.280 ahead and get in on the action right now. And 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:58.800 if you haven't already download that Betting Pros app on iOS, 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:02.000 especially because at three free days of premium to check 0:01:02.040 --> 0:01:04.399 out the goods, and again, if you want to shot 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:07.319 a one year of premium for free, drop the comments 0:01:07.319 --> 0:01:09.840 and you just might get it. Because it's the holiday season, 0:01:09.840 --> 0:01:13.040 we're doing fun stuff. Pat Fitzmorris Sam, it's great to 0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:14.520 see you guys. I know you're in a good mood. 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:17.880 You guys are full of packer wins and turkey and 0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:20.840 assorted other side dishes. But it's time to get back 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:23.240 to work, and we've got to start here with Thursday 0:01:23.319 --> 0:01:26.080 Night football. The Dallas Cowboys coming off a huge performance 0:01:26.120 --> 0:01:29.040 Dak Prescott sends them to eight and three with four touchdowns. 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:31.960 The Seattle Seahawks are six and five after a tough 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:33.640 loss to the forty nine ers. They go on the 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:37.240 road to Dallas, where Dallas has been so good at home. Pat, 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:38.880 this one is eight and a half right now in 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:41.200 the consensus line of betting pros, forty six and a 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:43.440 half is the total and the Seattle upset on the 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:46.520 money line at plus three fifteen. So Pat, does Dallas 0:01:46.600 --> 0:01:49.960 continue to roll or is this the perfect short week 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:53.080 trap game? As they're looking ahead to their rematch with 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:54.200 the Eagles next week. 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:58.120 It does feel a little like a short week trap game, Joe. 0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:01.120 And you know it was interesting this game open at 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:03.400 seven and a half on Sunday night and it's already 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:06.360 moved a point toward the Cowboys. I guess people doubt 0:02:06.400 --> 0:02:08.520 that Seattle can go toe to toe with the top 0:02:08.600 --> 0:02:11.560 level opponent after the way they play it on Thanksgiving 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:14.480 Night against the forty nine ers. But man, I like 0:02:14.520 --> 0:02:16.760 this as a bounce back spot for Seattle. Like, I 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:19.880 don't think they're gonna lay eggs two weeks in a row. 0:02:20.639 --> 0:02:24.120 You mentioned it, Dallas. Maybe this is a bit of 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:27.800 a look ahead game for them, And I just like, 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:31.440 I like getting this many points with Seattle. And I'm 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:33.959 even a little a little interested in the money line. 0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:34.280 Joe. 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:38.480 It was plus three thirty m DraftKings right before this show, 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:41.360 so I might just do a little something on the 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:45.000 money line, but a nice one or two unit bet 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:45.840 on Seattle. 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:48.040 I think you are braver than I am. I'm not 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:49.720 there on the money line, but I am there with 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:51.880 Seattle in the points. Sam, I'm curious to see where 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:55.320 you land because this number has moved overnight an extra 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:58.080 point there, as Pat was telling us, and to me, 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:01.280 as somebody who's been backing down, especially Dallas at home, 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:04.280 it feels a little weird to be a little gun 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:06.760 shy on them. But I feel like Seattle's the right 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:08.080 side of this game to be on. I think the 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:10.679 Cowboys win. I think Seattle might keep this one a 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:13.080 little closer. But what do you think is Seattle really 0:03:13.120 --> 0:03:14.600 just overmatched yar by Dallas? 0:03:15.320 --> 0:03:17.560 I think they are. I mean, if you look at 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:21.680 the way that Seattle's offense has performed the last four weeks, 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:25.560 their success rate EPA, per drive, passing EPAER P play, 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:29.120 all these advanced stats are just in the bottom eight 0:03:29.800 --> 0:03:34.560 of the league. And Dallas continues to be just a powerhouse. 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:38.360 I think they have what six twenty plus point victories 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:42.400 this year, like they are beating up on the inferior 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:47.000 opponents that they play. And while I wouldn't consider Seattle 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:51.880 in the class of teams like Washington, they just haven't 0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:55.880 looked like a competitive team the last several weeks. I mean, 0:03:55.920 --> 0:04:00.640 they eked out a win against the excuse me, the 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:05.120 Browns a couple of weeks ago, and Dallas has I 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:08.000 think an opportunity if they get out to an early 0:04:08.120 --> 0:04:11.480 lead to just put them away. They are second in 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:14.560 the league in pressure rate over the past four weeks, 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:18.520 first overall on the season. They've been blitzing a ton 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.080 as well, and Gino's been okay against the blitz. But 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:25.880 I just think there's too much firepower on the Cowboys 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:29.120 side of things. Dak is playing at an MVP level 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:33.400 right now, so I struggle to take Dallas with that 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:36.160 many points. I mean again, I think if I were 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:39.039 to approach this game, I'd rather stretch that out even 0:04:39.080 --> 0:04:42.719 more to maybe twelve thirteen points on an alternate line, 0:04:42.800 --> 0:04:44.640 just because of the way they have been playing. Like 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:48.120 I said, but I probably don't have a current lean 0:04:48.240 --> 0:04:49.159 on this game right now. 0:04:49.800 --> 0:04:51.440 All right, let's go to the next one here on 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:53.360 the list. Let's go to the Sunday games. Kicking things 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:56.600 off here with the Indianapolis game against Tennessee Titans. They're 0:04:56.600 --> 0:04:59.680 going to travel to Tennessee. They are two point favorites 0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:02.080 on the in Tennessee. Are the Colts forty two and 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:04.160 a half is the number plus one ten if you 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:07.000 like the Titans on the money line, Sam, this one 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:09.239 to me feels about right. If anything, I'm looking towards 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:12.479 the under potentially in this game. I just still even 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:14.000 though you know Will Evis will be at home and 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:15.719 Derek Henry had a good game, it still feels to 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:18.280 me like that offense has its issues, and I think 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:19.960 we can agree on that. The question is can the 0:05:19.960 --> 0:05:23.960 Colts defense continue to suppress the opposing offenses of teams 0:05:23.960 --> 0:05:26.120 like the Tennessee Titans. I'm leaving the under that's the 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:28.359 most attractive thing to me here, But anything really PopEd 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:29.120 to you in this one? 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:32.640 Yeah, the under is one thing that did pop out 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:36.800 to me. Tennessee is by far one of the slowest 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:40.600 paced teams in the league. They tend to run the 0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:44.039 ball a ton, especially with Derrick Henry, which keeps the 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:48.599 clock moving as they're going. I typically do love Colts 0:05:48.800 --> 0:05:52.120 and overs because they are one of the fastest paced teams. 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:56.720 But I think in this matchup, when Gardner Minshew, he's 0:05:56.800 --> 0:05:59.440 played well, but I think still has a wide range 0:05:59.480 --> 0:06:03.560 of outcome, has a chance to, you know, keep this 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:06.760 game close and keep it towards the under. I want 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:10.120 to I want to bet on the Colts. I think 0:06:10.160 --> 0:06:13.039 I'd rather play them on the money line than with 0:06:13.320 --> 0:06:16.400 the put in a half or two points, But I 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:18.440 think the under is the right play for right now. 0:06:19.440 --> 0:06:21.080 Pat, do you agree here that the under might be 0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:23.919 the most appealing early value here on this game. 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:27.880 I'm not really interested in it, Joe, Like I agree that. 0:06:28.279 --> 0:06:31.480 I don't know, Maybe it's the slightly percentage better percentage 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:33.880 play than the over, but I don't really like the 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:36.440 total in this one. Part of it is that Gardner 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:40.040 Minshew has faced this murder's row of pass defenses in 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:45.080 his seven starts this year, like Ravens, Browns, Jaguars. I 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:48.800 think he's faced four top ten teams in pass defense DVA, 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:52.080 and every team he's faced in his seven starts has 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:54.960 been top twenty one, So like, this is the first 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:58.279 time he's facing a team that's ranked like near the 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:01.120 bottom of the league in pass defense. The Titans are 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:02.520 twenty eighth. 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:02.360 So. 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:06.560 Maybe he does a little bit more business than he's 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:10.760 been doing recently. And yeah, boy, I don't really like 0:07:11.320 --> 0:07:13.360 either side of the total here, Joe, and I don't 0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:17.200 like either side, Like I just I can't go against. 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:18.360 Mike stay stay away Pas. 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:21.120 Yeah, I can't go against rabel as a you know, 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:24.960 like a home dog against a respectable but not like 0:07:25.160 --> 0:07:28.600 truly good team. Like I just you know, it's a 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.360 good thing. I've given up betting Colts games, Joe, because 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:33.520 I don't want to touch this one. 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.920 That's a good it's a good practice. I think, go ahead, sev. 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:38.960 Pat, you mentioned Vrabel at home. I mean, I think 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:42.400 Shane Steiken should easily be in the Coach of the 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:45.960 Year conversation right now. I mean with what he's done 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:47.920 with the Colts. I mean, if the season ends today, 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:50.840 the Colts are in the playoffs as a wildcard team 0:07:50.960 --> 0:07:55.960 after their number one quarterback went down, the their fourth 0:07:56.000 --> 0:08:00.240 overall pick in the draft, and probably possibly one of 0:08:00.280 --> 0:08:03.640 the worst rosters in the league heading into this season. 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:07.000 I think at this point Stiken probably has the coaching 0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:08.760 advantage over Mike Rabel. 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:12.160 Yeah, it's funny. Sam is echoing everything I just talked 0:08:12.160 --> 0:08:14.280 about with Pat on the Fantasy Pro Show this morning too, 0:08:14.280 --> 0:08:16.280 which is how much I'm gonna love the Colts next 0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:19.000 year because I love Stich and I love Anthony Richardson, 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:21.840 I love the jt is in the fold like, I'm 0:08:21.880 --> 0:08:24.760 gonna be very in on the Colts in twenty twenty four, 0:08:24.880 --> 0:08:27.880 but this week, in Week thirteen, if that money line 0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:29.320 was a little bigger. If you were giving me like 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:32.120 plus two to ten on the Titans, then I'm listening. 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:34.080 But right now the plus one ten, I'm just looking 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:36.679 the under Let's look to the Los Angeles Chargers, who 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:39.439 are chasing their tail to the New England Patriots they go, 0:08:39.800 --> 0:08:41.640 who are chasing the number one overall pick in this 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:46.000 year's upcoming NFL Draft. New England is six point home 0:08:46.120 --> 0:08:49.080 underdogs in this one. Maybe that's too much. I don't know. 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:51.319 Forty and a half is the number plus two to 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:54.880 ten on the New England Patriots money line. Oh, pat 0:08:55.280 --> 0:08:58.280 This is a tricky one here. Confidence in the Chargers 0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:01.400 is hard to come by, especially where I stand. I 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:04.720 was right, though, however, about the Baltimore Ravens not being 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:07.520 favored by enough in that game on Sunday Night, despite 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:10.000 the fact it was a thrilling contest by any stretch 0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:11.600 of the means. But this is a tough one here, 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:14.840 because the Patriots offense is having all sorts of problems. 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:17.240 They can't move the football, the Chargers coming up with 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:20.240 a very low total in their game this past Sunday night, 0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:21.880 So what do you make of this? From an early 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:23.720 Lion standpoint, is there any value at all? 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.040 I don't know, Joe. I'm pretty repulsed, to be honest 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:29.480 with you. And the first thing that struck me is, 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:32.720 just like, the Chargers is a six point road favorite. 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:35.800 Really again, what world are we living in now? 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.880 Traveling cross country for an early start? So I mean, 0:09:39.840 --> 0:09:44.840 I'm leaning Patriots here, as grotesque as that feels, Joe like. 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:49.720 And we've seen the Patriots legs at home, although they 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:52.800 did manage to knock off Buffalo at home, so uh, 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:56.160 man Like, as little confidence as I have in this 0:09:56.240 --> 0:09:59.439 Patriots offense, I think I'm gonna take them in the 0:09:59.480 --> 0:10:01.600 points this week because I just I can't wrap my 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:06.440 head around this starcrossed Charger team being favored by almost 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:09.440 a touchdown on the road. It just my head cannot 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:10.000 get around this. 0:10:10.960 --> 0:10:13.760 I understand, Sam, I don't know if you want to 0:10:13.800 --> 0:10:15.960 echo the sentiments of pat here, but this is really 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:18.720 tough because you have this weird rotation at quarterback here. 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:21.480 It feels like everything in New English is imploding on 0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:24.920 itself and the Chargers are right there with them, So 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:27.840 that becomes very difficult to kind of figure out a 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:29.880 side to take in this game. But do you have one, 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:31.360 I don't. 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:33.880 I mean, I think I made this game New England 0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:37.480 plus four when I was first looking at it, So 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:41.439 getting six points theoretically should mean I should be taking 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:45.120 the Patriots here, But it's so tough. I mean, the 0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:49.000 quarterback play is so abysmal for the Patriots, whether it's 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:52.920 Mac Jones or Bailey ZAPPI. I do think that this 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:57.680 could present a potential live betting opportunity with the Chargers, 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:00.240 depending on how they come out of the gate. The 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:04.320 Patriots rush defense has been exceptional all year. They have 0:11:04.520 --> 0:11:08.440 the number one ranked rush defense in terms of EPA 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:11.760 per play and success rate. So if the Chargers do 0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:15.200 come out passing the ball, then I'd be more inclined 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:20.360 to start adding some Chargers lines to my portfolio, but 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:24.320 without knowing what they're going to do, because again, they 0:11:24.320 --> 0:11:28.760 still have Austin Eckler, who theoretically is a good running back. 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:31.560 But I think it's better for fantasy than as an 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:35.280 actual running back at this point. But I'm not touching 0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:35.920 this right now. 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:39.480 Yeah, the live one is an interesting wager there, and 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:41.920 look process tells you. I agree, the Patriots probably the 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:44.280 side to be on, but it feels really hard to 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:46.200 be confident about that after what we've seen the last 0:11:46.200 --> 0:11:48.120 few weeks from them. The Detroit Lions coming off a 0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:51.160 tough Thanksgiving Day loss eight and three. They are now 0:11:51.200 --> 0:11:52.960 going against the five and six New Orleans Saints. This 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:54.959 one's in New Orleans. Detroit is still three and a 0:11:55.000 --> 0:11:57.040 half point favorites in this one at minus one to wait, 0:11:57.080 --> 0:11:59.599 that's the consensus lineup betting pros. Forty five and a 0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:02.360 half is the total, and you've got plus one sixty 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:04.679 on New warwins to win. Now, that Latimore injury was 0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:07.480 a bad one, obviously, the missed himless last week. Also 0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:10.400 a Lave getting hurt, Shaheed getting hurt, Sam A lot 0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:12.320 of injuries here for the Saints. I would jump on 0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:14.680 this Detroit line now at three and a half because 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:16.800 I feel like over the week this one's gonna grow. 0:12:16.840 --> 0:12:18.840 This is one of my favorite early ones. And you 0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:20.880 are nod in your head, so it feels like Sammy 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:23.520 ballgame is with me. Let's preach, let's go. 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:26.800 Yes. I mean you listed all of the injuries. Michael 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:29.679 Thomas was put on IR before this game. Chris A 0:12:29.720 --> 0:12:32.120 Lave left with the concussion rashoot Chahe left the game 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:35.440 with a thigh injury, like they're they're down to Lynn 0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:40.520 Bowden and At Perry as their top receiving options. Now, 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:43.280 I think Chris o'lave probably has a decent chance to 0:12:43.320 --> 0:12:46.000 play in this game. But Cam Jordan also left with 0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:50.080 a shin injury in the game. I mean, I don't 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:52.920 know what you've seen from the Saints that makes you 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:55.560 think they're they're gonna be able to keep it close 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:58.880 in this point. I think you're buying Detroit at a 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.760 sort of a low point, and after an embarrassing loss 0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:06.439 on Thanksgiving. They excuse me, went for it on fourth 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:09.720 down a bunch of times in that game, obviously, and 0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:13.760 it didn't go their way. But if some of those do, 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:16.800 then there's a chance that they come away with that victory. 0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:20.559 I think the Lions too, have a massive, massive coaching advantage. 0:13:20.640 --> 0:13:24.720 I think Dan Campbell is much better than Dennis Allen. 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:28.760 So I couldn't have gotten on this Detroit Lions line 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:29.960 quicker this morning. 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:34.720 Yeah, I'm with you, Sam Pat. This also feels like, 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:36.800 you know, I think the secret sauce there too was 0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:39.520 the pass rush that the Packers got on Jared Goff. 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:43.560 He was just looking for his life running around all 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:45.800 day long there trying to avoid that. I'm not sure 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:48.520 necessarily that New Orleans is capable putting that kind of 0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:50.360 pressure on them. And I know it's a road game, 0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:52.480 and I know we should be, you know, maybe theoretically 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:54.880 a little bit more respectful of New Orleans. But with 0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:57.280 all the injuries, with all the circumstances, and plus coming 0:13:57.280 --> 0:13:59.760 off that bad, embarrassing loss, was some extra time to prepare. 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:02.600 I'm with Sam, I am all in here early because 0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:04.320 I think this three and a half easily gets to 0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:05.959 four and a half or maybe even five and a 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:08.040 half by the time we get to Sunday. 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:11.240 I'm with you, guys, I've already bet the Lions, not 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:15.560 only all the injuries that you mentioned, Joe, you said 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:18.320 it the extra prep time and the fact that the 0:14:18.360 --> 0:14:20.680 Lions obviously have a bad taste in their mouth, like 0:14:21.080 --> 0:14:23.360 losing to the Packers at home in a game that 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:27.520 everyone in America's was watching basically, so they're motivated. And 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:30.640 can I interest you guys in the under in this game, 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:33.800 Like the total move from forty four and a half 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:37.600 to forty five and a half, it's gone up a 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:39.840 point and I kind of like the under because the 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:42.080 Saints don't have much of a running game at all, 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:46.360 and while we have seen teams carve up the Lions 0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:49.120 through the air lately, including the Packers. I might add 0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:52.200 Derek Carr has been having all sorts of trouble getting 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:53.920 the ball into the end zone, like he is just 0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:57.480 not able to seal the deal once the Saints get 0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:00.360 inside the red zone or even inside the thirty to 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:05.520 be honest. So plus like, yeah, maybe Dennis Allen is 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:07.720 the inferior head coach here, but I do have a 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:12.000 lot of faith in Dennis Allen defensively getting it done. 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:14.960 The Saints are still a pretty good defensive team even 0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:17.360 without Marshawn Latimar, so I don't think the Lions are 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:20.520 gonna go crazy offensively. So I sort of like the 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:22.320 Lions and the under in this one. 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:26.240 By the way, since we started the show, this number 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:28.400 has already moved on FanDuel at least it's up to 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:30.200 four and a half. So there you have it. Everybody. 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:32.720 Everybody seems to agree, So get in as soon as 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:34.720 you can on this one before it gets out of control. 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:37.800 Next one here, the unlikely seven to four Pittsburgh Steelers 0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:39.640 will be at home. They are five and a half 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:43.160 point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. Right now, the number 0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:46.440 for this game and consensus is forty, which feels about 0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:49.480 right to me. Plus two hundred for Arizona and the upset. 0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:53.200 The Cardinals really struggled yesterday against the Rams pat I 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:55.920 imagine they will struggle on the road here against Pittsburgh. 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:59.920 I know with Matt Canada gone, there's a new excitement 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:02.200 here with the offense of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the first 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:04.720 four hundred yards of offense they've had in four seasons. 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:07.960 But still looking at the Pittsburgh Steelers is five and 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:09.760 a half too much. 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:12.640 It might be Joe. Every time I feel confidence in 0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:15.480 the Steelers, I met them and they burn me severely. 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:18.920 So I'm not really interested in either side here. I'm 0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:21.560 kind of interested in the over though. Like the Steelers 0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:24.160 average six point two yards per play in their first 0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:28.520 game without Matt Canada as the play caller. They look 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:30.720 pretty good on offense, like didn't score as many points 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:32.600 as they should have given that they were over four 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:36.640 hundred yards of offense. And like this Arizona offense is 0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:39.400 spunky two with Kyler Murray, so I think We're going 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:41.680 to see more than thirty nine and a half or 0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:43.800 forty points in this one. But I don't really like 0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:44.560 either side. 0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:47.760 Sam. I'm confident in the Steelers victory, but I'm just 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:49.560 not confident in the five and a half. Can you 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:50.160 get me there? 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:54.840 No, I can't. I took the Cardinals with those with 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:56.640 the points this morning. I mean, I think it's the 0:16:56.640 --> 0:16:59.880 better quarterback getting the points. Can he Pickett? His hist 0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:03.880 not played well this year, despite him having probably his 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:08.600 best game this past week against the Bengals, But the 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:12.160 fact that they came away with a single digit win 0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:18.520 against a team starting kind of can't remember the Bengals 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:24.240 quarterback name, but it's Browning, Yeah, Browning. Like I think 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:26.919 with this lower total too, there's a chance that the 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:31.160 Cardinals keep it close. They have been pretty successful rushing 0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:34.720 the ball with Kyler Murray and James Connor back as well. 0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:37.560 So give me Arizona with the points here. 0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:40.879 Yeah, that forty I don't care for. But the Arizona 0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:43.000 side is where I'm leading to. This next one's one 0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:44.720 of my favorite early ones. I want to jump on 0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:47.080 this one. The Atlanta Falcons traveled to New York. They 0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:49.360 are two and a half point favorites. There thirty four 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:50.600 is the number for this game. If you like the 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:53.679 Jets for the upset, it's plus one twenty on the 0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:56.480 consensus Betting Pros line. And again, don't forget to download 0:17:56.520 --> 0:17:59.280 the Betting Pros app and make sure you're using it 0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:01.120 so you can make sure you tracking all of these 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:03.440 Use the game notifications so you know what's going on 0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:05.960 with the line alerts, so you know exactly when these 0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:08.280 lines all move, because that is crucial. It's not just 0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:11.159 what games to bet, it's when to bet them. And 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:15.800 it feels like Sam after finally weeks and weeks months 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:18.640 of torture of waiting for Bijon Robinson to just touch 0:18:18.680 --> 0:18:21.119 the football as much as humanly possible, we're starting to 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:25.400 get more of that. That confidence in Bijon is why 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:27.680 I am confident in the Falcons. I think the Falcons 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:30.359 defense is pretty good. I think the Jets' quarterback play 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:32.960 is absolutely atrocious. There's no way out of it. It's 0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:35.320 a downward spiral to hell for the New York Jets 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:38.680 quarterback situation. I'm in on the Falcons on the road. 0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:40.679 Not something I say very often, but where are you 0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:41.440 for this game? 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:45.040 Joe, you might have been the first person to use 0:18:45.080 --> 0:18:47.920 the word confident and Falcons in the same sentence. 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:51.119 This end road. Don't forget the road part. 0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:55.280 I mean, as far as I can tell, like, they 0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:59.000 could throw this game on Friday afternoon again and just 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:03.720 sort of skip acid. But the Jets defense is undoubtedly 0:19:03.760 --> 0:19:08.280 the best unit in this game. I think, god thirty 0:19:08.320 --> 0:19:11.439 four and a half point total is just it's so low. 0:19:11.920 --> 0:19:15.480 Desmond Ritter has struggled. I mean, between him and Derek 0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:18.560 Carr on Sunday, they were just having a battle to 0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:21.919 see who could play worse in the red zone. So 0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:25.639 I kind of like the Jets here. I mean, I 0:19:25.680 --> 0:19:29.639 think I'd prefer to tease them out to eight and 0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:33.760 a half points, especially again with such a low total. 0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:37.400 I think Tim Boyle, who I believe they already announced 0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:41.520 would be the starter for this game, will have slightly 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:45.320 better success being able to move the ball against the 0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:49.760 Falcons than the Miami Dolphins. The Jets do have a 0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:54.240 slight rest advantage here, so if I'm gon to my 0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:57.119