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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It's v Joey paid Joe Pisap and it's

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Speaker 1: week thirteen in the NFL. It's time to look ahead

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Speaker 1: to the games. And what a fun week end it

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Speaker 1: was and holiday special too. Ooh baby, we nailed the

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Speaker 1: Turkey Day parlay. Andrew Erickson and I hopefully you enjoyed Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 1: Sure to Thanksgiving Nike. Your your bellies were full and

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Speaker 1: your wallets were full, because that was a good one.

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Speaker 1: And I know these two cheeseheads loved the way that

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Speaker 1: Thanksgiving started off. Sam Hoppin, Pat Fitzmore is joining me

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Speaker 1: today we're gonna break down the games. We've got a

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Speaker 1: shorter slate week thirteen. Everyone's taking some time off for themselves,

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Speaker 1: but not us. No, no, we keep going here on

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros every single chance we get. Don't forget. Make

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Speaker 1: belt to the Coast ding because you can win a

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Speaker 1: one year free premium upgrade to Betting Pros. So go

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Speaker 1: ahead and get in on the action right now. And

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Speaker 1: if you haven't already download that Betting Pros app on iOS,

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Speaker 1: especially because at three free days of premium to check

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Speaker 1: out the goods, and again, if you want to shot

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Speaker 1: a one year of premium for free, drop the comments

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Speaker 1: and you just might get it. Because it's the holiday season,

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Speaker 1: we're doing fun stuff. Pat Fitzmorris Sam, it's great to

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Speaker 1: see you guys. I know you're in a good mood.

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Speaker 1: You guys are full of packer wins and turkey and

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Speaker 1: assorted other side dishes. But it's time to get back

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Speaker 1: to work, and we've got to start here with Thursday

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Speaker 1: Night football. The Dallas Cowboys coming off a huge performance

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Speaker 1: Dak Prescott sends them to eight and three with four touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: The Seattle Seahawks are six and five after a tough

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Speaker 1: loss to the forty nine ers. They go on the

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Speaker 1: road to Dallas, where Dallas has been so good at home. Pat,

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Speaker 1: this one is eight and a half right now in

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Speaker 1: the consensus line of betting pros, forty six and a

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Speaker 1: half is the total and the Seattle upset on the

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Speaker 1: money line at plus three fifteen. So Pat, does Dallas

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Speaker 1: continue to roll or is this the perfect short week

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Speaker 1: trap game? As they're looking ahead to their rematch with

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Speaker 1: the Eagles next week.

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Speaker 2: It does feel a little like a short week trap game, Joe.

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Speaker 2: And you know it was interesting this game open at

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Speaker 2: seven and a half on Sunday night and it's already

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Speaker 2: moved a point toward the Cowboys. I guess people doubt

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Speaker 2: that Seattle can go toe to toe with the top

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Speaker 2: level opponent after the way they play it on Thanksgiving

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Speaker 2: Night against the forty nine ers. But man, I like

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Speaker 2: this as a bounce back spot for Seattle. Like, I

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Speaker 2: don't think they're gonna lay eggs two weeks in a row.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned it, Dallas. Maybe this is a bit of

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Speaker 2: a look ahead game for them, And I just like,

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Speaker 2: I like getting this many points with Seattle. And I'm

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Speaker 2: even a little a little interested in the money line.

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Speaker 3: Joe.

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Speaker 2: It was plus three thirty m DraftKings right before this show,

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Speaker 2: so I might just do a little something on the

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Speaker 2: money line, but a nice one or two unit bet

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Speaker 2: on Seattle.

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Speaker 1: I think you are braver than I am. I'm not

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Speaker 1: there on the money line, but I am there with

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Speaker 1: Seattle in the points. Sam, I'm curious to see where

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Speaker 1: you land because this number has moved overnight an extra

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Speaker 1: point there, as Pat was telling us, and to me,

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Speaker 1: as somebody who's been backing down, especially Dallas at home,

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Speaker 1: it feels a little weird to be a little gun

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Speaker 1: shy on them. But I feel like Seattle's the right

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Speaker 1: side of this game to be on. I think the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys win. I think Seattle might keep this one a

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Speaker 1: little closer. But what do you think is Seattle really

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Speaker 1: just overmatched yar by Dallas?

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Speaker 3: I think they are. I mean, if you look at

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Speaker 3: the way that Seattle's offense has performed the last four weeks,

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Speaker 3: their success rate EPA, per drive, passing EPAER P play,

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Speaker 3: all these advanced stats are just in the bottom eight

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Speaker 3: of the league. And Dallas continues to be just a powerhouse.

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Speaker 3: I think they have what six twenty plus point victories

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Speaker 3: this year, like they are beating up on the inferior

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Speaker 3: opponents that they play. And while I wouldn't consider Seattle

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Speaker 3: in the class of teams like Washington, they just haven't

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Speaker 3: looked like a competitive team the last several weeks. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they eked out a win against the excuse me, the

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Speaker 3: Browns a couple of weeks ago, and Dallas has I

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Speaker 3: think an opportunity if they get out to an early

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Speaker 3: lead to just put them away. They are second in

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Speaker 3: the league in pressure rate over the past four weeks,

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Speaker 3: first overall on the season. They've been blitzing a ton

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Speaker 3: as well, and Gino's been okay against the blitz. But

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Speaker 3: I just think there's too much firepower on the Cowboys

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Speaker 3: side of things. Dak is playing at an MVP level

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Speaker 3: right now, so I struggle to take Dallas with that

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Speaker 3: many points. I mean again, I think if I were

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Speaker 3: to approach this game, I'd rather stretch that out even

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Speaker 3: more to maybe twelve thirteen points on an alternate line,

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Speaker 3: just because of the way they have been playing. Like

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Speaker 3: I said, but I probably don't have a current lean

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Speaker 3: on this game right now.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the next one here on

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Speaker 1: the list. Let's go to the Sunday games. Kicking things

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Speaker 1: off here with the Indianapolis game against Tennessee Titans. They're

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Speaker 1: going to travel to Tennessee. They are two point favorites

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Speaker 1: on the in Tennessee. Are the Colts forty two and

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Speaker 1: a half is the number plus one ten if you

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Speaker 1: like the Titans on the money line, Sam, this one

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Speaker 1: to me feels about right. If anything, I'm looking towards

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Speaker 1: the under potentially in this game. I just still even

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Speaker 1: though you know Will Evis will be at home and

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Speaker 1: Derek Henry had a good game, it still feels to

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Speaker 1: me like that offense has its issues, and I think

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Speaker 1: we can agree on that. The question is can the

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Speaker 1: Colts defense continue to suppress the opposing offenses of teams

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Speaker 1: like the Tennessee Titans. I'm leaving the under that's the

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Speaker 1: most attractive thing to me here, But anything really PopEd

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Speaker 1: to you in this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the under is one thing that did pop out

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Speaker 3: to me. Tennessee is by far one of the slowest

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Speaker 3: paced teams in the league. They tend to run the

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Speaker 3: ball a ton, especially with Derrick Henry, which keeps the

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Speaker 3: clock moving as they're going. I typically do love Colts

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Speaker 3: and overs because they are one of the fastest paced teams.

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Speaker 3: But I think in this matchup, when Gardner Minshew, he's

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Speaker 3: played well, but I think still has a wide range

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Speaker 3: of outcome, has a chance to, you know, keep this

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Speaker 3: game close and keep it towards the under. I want

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Speaker 3: to I want to bet on the Colts. I think

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Speaker 3: I'd rather play them on the money line than with

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Speaker 3: the put in a half or two points, But I

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Speaker 3: think the under is the right play for right now.

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Speaker 1: Pat, do you agree here that the under might be

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Speaker 1: the most appealing early value here on this game.

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Speaker 2: I'm not really interested in it, Joe, Like I agree that.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, Maybe it's the slightly percentage better percentage

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Speaker 2: play than the over, but I don't really like the

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Speaker 2: total in this one. Part of it is that Gardner

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Speaker 2: Minshew has faced this murder's row of pass defenses in

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Speaker 2: his seven starts this year, like Ravens, Browns, Jaguars. I

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Speaker 2: think he's faced four top ten teams in pass defense DVA,

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Speaker 2: and every team he's faced in his seven starts has

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Speaker 2: been top twenty one, So like, this is the first

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Speaker 2: time he's facing a team that's ranked like near the

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Speaker 2: bottom of the league in pass defense. The Titans are

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Speaker 2: twenty eighth.

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Speaker 4: So.

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Speaker 2: Maybe he does a little bit more business than he's

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Speaker 2: been doing recently. And yeah, boy, I don't really like

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Speaker 2: either side of the total here, Joe, and I don't

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Speaker 2: like either side, Like I just I can't go against.

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Speaker 1: Mike stay stay away Pas.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't go against rabel as a you know,

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Speaker 2: like a home dog against a respectable but not like

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Speaker 2: truly good team. Like I just you know, it's a

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Speaker 2: good thing. I've given up betting Colts games, Joe, because

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Speaker 2: I don't want to touch this one.

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Speaker 1: That's a good it's a good practice. I think, go ahead, sev.

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Speaker 3: Pat, you mentioned Vrabel at home. I mean, I think

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Speaker 3: Shane Steiken should easily be in the Coach of the

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Speaker 3: Year conversation right now. I mean with what he's done

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Speaker 3: with the Colts. I mean, if the season ends today,

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Speaker 3: the Colts are in the playoffs as a wildcard team

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Speaker 3: after their number one quarterback went down, the their fourth

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Speaker 3: overall pick in the draft, and probably possibly one of

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Speaker 3: the worst rosters in the league heading into this season.

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Speaker 3: I think at this point Stiken probably has the coaching

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Speaker 3: advantage over Mike Rabel.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny. Sam is echoing everything I just talked

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Speaker 1: about with Pat on the Fantasy Pro Show this morning too,

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Speaker 1: which is how much I'm gonna love the Colts next

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Speaker 1: year because I love Stich and I love Anthony Richardson,

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Speaker 1: I love the jt is in the fold like, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna be very in on the Colts in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: but this week, in Week thirteen, if that money line

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Speaker 1: was a little bigger. If you were giving me like

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Speaker 1: plus two to ten on the Titans, then I'm listening.

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Speaker 1: But right now the plus one ten, I'm just looking

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Speaker 1: the under Let's look to the Los Angeles Chargers, who

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Speaker 1: are chasing their tail to the New England Patriots they go,

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Speaker 1: who are chasing the number one overall pick in this

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Speaker 1: year's upcoming NFL Draft. New England is six point home

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Speaker 1: underdogs in this one. Maybe that's too much. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Forty and a half is the number plus two to

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Speaker 1: ten on the New England Patriots money line. Oh, pat

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Speaker 1: This is a tricky one here. Confidence in the Chargers

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Speaker 1: is hard to come by, especially where I stand. I

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Speaker 1: was right, though, however, about the Baltimore Ravens not being

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Speaker 1: favored by enough in that game on Sunday Night, despite

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Speaker 1: the fact it was a thrilling contest by any stretch

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Speaker 1: of the means. But this is a tough one here,

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Speaker 1: because the Patriots offense is having all sorts of problems.

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Speaker 1: They can't move the football, the Chargers coming up with

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Speaker 1: a very low total in their game this past Sunday night,

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Speaker 1: So what do you make of this? From an early

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Speaker 1: Lion standpoint, is there any value at all?

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Speaker 2: I don't know, Joe. I'm pretty repulsed, to be honest

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Speaker 2: with you. And the first thing that struck me is,

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Speaker 2: just like, the Chargers is a six point road favorite.

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Speaker 1: Really again, what world are we living in now?

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Speaker 2: Traveling cross country for an early start? So I mean,

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Speaker 2: I'm leaning Patriots here, as grotesque as that feels, Joe like.

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Speaker 2: And we've seen the Patriots legs at home, although they

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Speaker 2: did manage to knock off Buffalo at home, so uh,

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Speaker 2: man Like, as little confidence as I have in this

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Speaker 2: Patriots offense, I think I'm gonna take them in the

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Speaker 2: points this week because I just I can't wrap my

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Speaker 2: head around this starcrossed Charger team being favored by almost

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Speaker 2: a touchdown on the road. It just my head cannot

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Speaker 2: get around this.

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Speaker 1: I understand, Sam, I don't know if you want to

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Speaker 1: echo the sentiments of pat here, but this is really

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Speaker 1: tough because you have this weird rotation at quarterback here.

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Speaker 1: It feels like everything in New English is imploding on

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Speaker 1: itself and the Chargers are right there with them, So

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Speaker 1: that becomes very difficult to kind of figure out a

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Speaker 1: side to take in this game. But do you have one,

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Speaker 1: I don't.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think I made this game New England

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Speaker 3: plus four when I was first looking at it, So

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Speaker 3: getting six points theoretically should mean I should be taking

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Speaker 3: the Patriots here, But it's so tough. I mean, the

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Speaker 3: quarterback play is so abysmal for the Patriots, whether it's

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Speaker 3: Mac Jones or Bailey ZAPPI. I do think that this

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Speaker 3: could present a potential live betting opportunity with the Chargers,

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Speaker 3: depending on how they come out of the gate. The

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Speaker 3: Patriots rush defense has been exceptional all year. They have

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Speaker 3: the number one ranked rush defense in terms of EPA

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Speaker 3: per play and success rate. So if the Chargers do

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Speaker 3: come out passing the ball, then I'd be more inclined

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Speaker 3: to start adding some Chargers lines to my portfolio, but

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Speaker 3: without knowing what they're going to do, because again, they

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Speaker 3: still have Austin Eckler, who theoretically is a good running back.

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Speaker 3: But I think it's better for fantasy than as an

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Speaker 3: actual running back at this point. But I'm not touching

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Speaker 3: this right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the live one is an interesting wager there, and

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Speaker 1: look process tells you. I agree, the Patriots probably the

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Speaker 1: side to be on, but it feels really hard to

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Speaker 1: be confident about that after what we've seen the last

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Speaker 1: few weeks from them. The Detroit Lions coming off a

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Speaker 1: tough Thanksgiving Day loss eight and three. They are now

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Speaker 1: going against the five and six New Orleans Saints. This

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Speaker 1: one's in New Orleans. Detroit is still three and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorites in this one at minus one to wait,

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Speaker 1: that's the consensus lineup betting pros. Forty five and a

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Speaker 1: half is the total, and you've got plus one sixty

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Speaker 1: on New warwins to win. Now, that Latimore injury was

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Speaker 1: a bad one, obviously, the missed himless last week. Also

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Speaker 1: a Lave getting hurt, Shaheed getting hurt, Sam A lot

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Speaker 1: of injuries here for the Saints. I would jump on

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Speaker 1: this Detroit line now at three and a half because

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Speaker 1: I feel like over the week this one's gonna grow.

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Speaker 1: This is one of my favorite early ones. And you

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Speaker 1: are nod in your head, so it feels like Sammy

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Speaker 1: ballgame is with me. Let's preach, let's go.

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Speaker 3: Yes. I mean you listed all of the injuries. Michael

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Speaker 3: Thomas was put on IR before this game. Chris A

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Speaker 3: Lave left with the concussion rashoot Chahe left the game

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Speaker 3: with a thigh injury, like they're they're down to Lynn

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Speaker 3: Bowden and At Perry as their top receiving options. Now,

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Speaker 3: I think Chris o'lave probably has a decent chance to

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Speaker 3: play in this game. But Cam Jordan also left with

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Speaker 3: a shin injury in the game. I mean, I don't

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Speaker 3: know what you've seen from the Saints that makes you

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Speaker 3: think they're they're gonna be able to keep it close

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Speaker 3: in this point. I think you're buying Detroit at a

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Speaker 3: sort of a low point, and after an embarrassing loss

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Speaker 3: on Thanksgiving. They excuse me, went for it on fourth

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Speaker 3: down a bunch of times in that game, obviously, and

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Speaker 3: it didn't go their way. But if some of those do,

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Speaker 3: then there's a chance that they come away with that victory.

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Speaker 3: I think the Lions too, have a massive, massive coaching advantage.

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Speaker 3: I think Dan Campbell is much better than Dennis Allen.

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Speaker 3: So I couldn't have gotten on this Detroit Lions line

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Speaker 3: quicker this morning.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you, Sam Pat. This also feels like,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think the secret sauce there too was

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Speaker 1: the pass rush that the Packers got on Jared Goff.

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Speaker 1: He was just looking for his life running around all

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Speaker 1: day long there trying to avoid that. I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: necessarily that New Orleans is capable putting that kind of

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Speaker 1: pressure on them. And I know it's a road game,

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Speaker 1: and I know we should be, you know, maybe theoretically

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Speaker 1: a little bit more respectful of New Orleans. But with

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Speaker 1: all the injuries, with all the circumstances, and plus coming

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Speaker 1: off that bad, embarrassing loss, was some extra time to prepare.

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Speaker 1: I'm with Sam, I am all in here early because

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Speaker 1: I think this three and a half easily gets to

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Speaker 1: four and a half or maybe even five and a

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Speaker 1: half by the time we get to Sunday.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you, guys, I've already bet the Lions, not

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Speaker 2: only all the injuries that you mentioned, Joe, you said

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Speaker 2: it the extra prep time and the fact that the

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Speaker 2: Lions obviously have a bad taste in their mouth, like

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Speaker 2: losing to the Packers at home in a game that

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Speaker 2: everyone in America's was watching basically, so they're motivated. And

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Speaker 2: can I interest you guys in the under in this game,

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Speaker 2: Like the total move from forty four and a half

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Speaker 2: to forty five and a half, it's gone up a

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Speaker 2: point and I kind of like the under because the

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Speaker 2: Saints don't have much of a running game at all,

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Speaker 2: and while we have seen teams carve up the Lions

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Speaker 2: through the air lately, including the Packers. I might add

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Speaker 2: Derek Carr has been having all sorts of trouble getting

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Speaker 2: the ball into the end zone, like he is just

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Speaker 2: not able to seal the deal once the Saints get

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Speaker 2: inside the red zone or even inside the thirty to

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Speaker 2: be honest. So plus like, yeah, maybe Dennis Allen is

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Speaker 2: the inferior head coach here, but I do have a

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Speaker 2: lot of faith in Dennis Allen defensively getting it done.

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Speaker 2: The Saints are still a pretty good defensive team even

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Speaker 2: without Marshawn Latimar, so I don't think the Lions are

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Speaker 2: gonna go crazy offensively. So I sort of like the

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Speaker 2: Lions and the under in this one.

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Speaker 1: By the way, since we started the show, this number

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Speaker 1: has already moved on FanDuel at least it's up to

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Speaker 1: four and a half. So there you have it. Everybody.

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Speaker 1: Everybody seems to agree, So get in as soon as

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Speaker 1: you can on this one before it gets out of control.

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Speaker 1: Next one here, the unlikely seven to four Pittsburgh Steelers

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Speaker 1: will be at home. They are five and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. Right now, the number

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Speaker 1: for this game and consensus is forty, which feels about

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Speaker 1: right to me. Plus two hundred for Arizona and the upset.

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Speaker 1: The Cardinals really struggled yesterday against the Rams pat I

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Speaker 1: imagine they will struggle on the road here against Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: I know with Matt Canada gone, there's a new excitement

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Speaker 1: here with the offense of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the first

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Speaker 1: four hundred yards of offense they've had in four seasons.

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Speaker 1: But still looking at the Pittsburgh Steelers is five and

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Speaker 1: a half too much.

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Speaker 2: It might be Joe. Every time I feel confidence in

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Speaker 2: the Steelers, I met them and they burn me severely.

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Speaker 2: So I'm not really interested in either side here. I'm

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Speaker 2: kind of interested in the over though. Like the Steelers

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Speaker 2: average six point two yards per play in their first

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Speaker 2: game without Matt Canada as the play caller. They look

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Speaker 2: pretty good on offense, like didn't score as many points

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Speaker 2: as they should have given that they were over four

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Speaker 2: hundred yards of offense. And like this Arizona offense is

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Speaker 2: spunky two with Kyler Murray, so I think We're going

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Speaker 2: to see more than thirty nine and a half or

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Speaker 2: forty points in this one. But I don't really like

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Speaker 2: either side.

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Speaker 1: Sam. I'm confident in the Steelers victory, but I'm just

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Speaker 1: not confident in the five and a half. Can you

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Speaker 1: get me there?

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Speaker 3: No, I can't. I took the Cardinals with those with

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Speaker 3: the points this morning. I mean, I think it's the

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Speaker 3: better quarterback getting the points. Can he Pickett? His hist

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Speaker 3: not played well this year, despite him having probably his

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Speaker 3: best game this past week against the Bengals, But the

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Speaker 3: fact that they came away with a single digit win

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Speaker 3: against a team starting kind of can't remember the Bengals

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Speaker 3: quarterback name, but it's Browning, Yeah, Browning. Like I think

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Speaker 3: with this lower total too, there's a chance that the

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Speaker 3: Cardinals keep it close. They have been pretty successful rushing

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Speaker 3: the ball with Kyler Murray and James Connor back as well.

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Speaker 3: So give me Arizona with the points here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that forty I don't care for. But the Arizona

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Speaker 1: side is where I'm leading to. This next one's one

359
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Speaker 1: of my favorite early ones. I want to jump on

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Speaker 1: this one. The Atlanta Falcons traveled to New York. They

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Speaker 1: are two and a half point favorites. There thirty four

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Speaker 1: is the number for this game. If you like the

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Speaker 1: Jets for the upset, it's plus one twenty on the

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Speaker 1: consensus Betting Pros line. And again, don't forget to download

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros app and make sure you're using it

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Speaker 1: so you can make sure you tracking all of these

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Speaker 1: Use the game notifications so you know what's going on

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Speaker 1: with the line alerts, so you know exactly when these

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Speaker 1: lines all move, because that is crucial. It's not just

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Speaker 1: what games to bet, it's when to bet them. And

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Speaker 1: it feels like Sam after finally weeks and weeks months

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Speaker 1: of torture of waiting for Bijon Robinson to just touch

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Speaker 1: the football as much as humanly possible, we're starting to

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Speaker 1: get more of that. That confidence in Bijon is why

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Speaker 1: I am confident in the Falcons. I think the Falcons

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Speaker 1: defense is pretty good. I think the Jets' quarterback play

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Speaker 1: is absolutely atrocious. There's no way out of it. It's

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Speaker 1: a downward spiral to hell for the New York Jets

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Speaker 1: quarterback situation. I'm in on the Falcons on the road.

380
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Speaker 1: Not something I say very often, but where are you

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Speaker 1: for this game?

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Speaker 3: Joe, you might have been the first person to use

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Speaker 3: the word confident and Falcons in the same sentence.

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Speaker 1: This end road. Don't forget the road part.

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Speaker 3: I mean, as far as I can tell, like, they

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Speaker 3: could throw this game on Friday afternoon again and just

387
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:03,720
Speaker 3: sort of skip acid. But the Jets defense is undoubtedly

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Speaker 3: the best unit in this game. I think, god thirty

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00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,439
Speaker 3: four and a half point total is just it's so low.

390
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 3: Desmond Ritter has struggled. I mean, between him and Derek

391
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Speaker 3: Carr on Sunday, they were just having a battle to

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00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:21,919
Speaker 3: see who could play worse in the red zone. So

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Speaker 3: I kind of like the Jets here. I mean, I

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Speaker 3: think I'd prefer to tease them out to eight and

395
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Speaker 3: a half points, especially again with such a low total.

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Speaker 3: I think Tim Boyle, who I believe they already announced

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Speaker 3: would be the starter for this game, will have slightly

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Speaker 3: better success being able to move the ball against the

399
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Speaker 3: Falcons than the Miami Dolphins. The Jets do have a

400
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 3: slight rest advantage here, so if I'm gon to my

401
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,119
Speaker 3: head choosing a side, it's teasing the Jets out with

402
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Speaker 3: something else.

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Speaker 1: I feel like the Falcons smell winning this division now

404
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:05,200
Speaker 1: after that win against the Saints. I think they recognize

405
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Speaker 1: that this is a tough matchup against the Jets here.

406
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Speaker 1: But the Jets offense, I think, is just going to

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Speaker 1: make mistakes that are going to hand this game over

408
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 1: to the Falcons, whether it be interceptions, fumbles, short fields.

409
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Speaker 1: I think they're going to present the Falcons with a

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Speaker 1: w and as long as they keep the ball in

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Speaker 1: Jon Robinson's hands more than Desmond Ritters, I think they

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Speaker 1: should come out with a victory.

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Speaker 2: But Pat, what do you think could be Joe did

414
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Speaker 2: you did you say you were excited about this game?

415
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 1: Because I'm excited to bet this game. Not to watch

416
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Speaker 1: this game, I'm not going to watch it if I

417
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Speaker 1: can avoid it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, if I watch this, it's gonna because my eyes

419
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Speaker 2: are pride open, clockwork orange style and I'm being forced to.

420
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Speaker 2: I think I'd rather watch one of those electric football

421
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:46,360
Speaker 2: games where you turn it on to the board vibrators

422
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:50,200
Speaker 2: or flyers goals, more entertaining football than this game is

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Speaker 2: going to.

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Speaker 1: Actually, what the Jets offense looks like people is debrating

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Speaker 1: randomly on the field and no direction whatsoever.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I wish I could have your level

427
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Speaker 2: of confidence in Arthur Smith's offense against the Jets defense,

428
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Speaker 2: and I'm kind of kick I'm not gonna bet either side.

429
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Speaker 2: I just don't like either side of this. I wish

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Speaker 2: I had taken the under when it was thirty five

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Speaker 2: on Sunday Night on DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: Now it's thirty four on DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: I might still have to just grab it at thirty

434
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,360
Speaker 2: four and a half on FanDuel, because yeah, this game

435
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 2: is going to be I can't see this game getting

436
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,359
Speaker 2: to thirty points, like, I just can't.

437
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,919
Speaker 1: The postgame press conferences locally after the game here, I

438
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:31,439
Speaker 1: watched a bunch of them because I live in the

439
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 1: New York area. This feels like a team that has done.

440
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 1: They are They sound done. They are sound that they're

441
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 1: over it. The Jets sound like, you know, I got

442
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 1: no answers. They've got no answers. They're four and seven,

443
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 1: and I think the Falcons are like, hey, we are

444
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 1: in this thing, let's go. And I think it goes

445
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:48,399
Speaker 1: back to some of those teams like who needs the

446
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 1: game more. I think the Falcons need it. They smell it.

447
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna come out with a w you know,

448
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:54,920
Speaker 1: minus one forty five is a little too much juice here,

449
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 1: So I'll take the two and a half at minus

450
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 1: one fourteen because I think they can win by a

451
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 1: field goal. Miami try to Washington. Washington always gets up

452
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,400
Speaker 1: pat for the bigger opponents, so I mean they didn't

453
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 1: get up for Thanksgiving, but you know that's that's a

454
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,360
Speaker 1: different story. They will be at home against the Dolphins.

455
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 1: The Dolphins are nine and a half point favorites. Fifty

456
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 1: is the number for this game, plus three fifty on

457
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 1: the money line for Washington pat. Do you see any

458
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 1: early value in this one?

459
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 3: Oh?

460
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 1: Man, I don't chow.

461
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,479
Speaker 2: I mean, nine and a half seems like a lot

462
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,440
Speaker 2: of points to give a home team with a spunky

463
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 2: passing game. But man, the Dolphins could just pour on

464
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:33,200
Speaker 2: the points on this Washington pass defense. Like Tyreek Hill

465
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 2: and Jalen Willer are just gonna go berzerk in this game.

466
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 2: So if anything, I might bet the over here. Nine

467
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 2: and a half points is just too much for me.

468
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 2: But I can't bet Washington either.

469
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:45,720
Speaker 1: That's the hard part. I'm going to rock in a

470
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 1: hard place with this game, too. Sam. Maybe you've got

471
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 1: some stats from the laboratory to help give us some clarity.

472
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 1: Because I think Pat and I need some here.

473
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, for me, I'm probably betting to underhear. The Miami

474
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 3: Dolphins are struggling with some injuries. They lost Jalen Phillips,

475
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 3: which is just a huge, huge loss. Javon Hollins got

476
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:08,160
Speaker 3: hurt in the game. Toront Armstead is week to week,

477
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:12,880
Speaker 3: so nothing to like the offensive playmakers, which obviously drives

478
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 3: this team, but just a couple a number of key

479
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 3: players who could and likely will miss this game. Now,

480
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 3: the reason I like the under is because these are

481
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 3: two of the again slowest paced teams in the league.

482
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:31,120
Speaker 3: They both rank in the bottom eight ins neutral script

483
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 3: seconds per play. They both use no huddle at the

484
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 3: bottom five rate in the league. So it as good

485
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:43,159
Speaker 3: as these offenses have shown they can be. I mean,

486
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 3: obviously the Dolphins have one of the best explosive play

487
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 3: rates in the league this year. I just think they

488
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,679
Speaker 3: both sort of play it super slow. I think, you know,

489
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 3: we get something like the Dolphins potentially playing against the Jets,

490
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 3: where they just have some of these longer drives that

491
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 3: take five to six seven minutes and are able to

492
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 3: salt away a lead and with a fifteen and a

493
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:12,640
Speaker 3: half point total you need a lot to go right.

494
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 3: You can't have, you know, any of these red zone

495
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,360
Speaker 3: turnovers things like that. So I'd bet the under here,

496
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 3: and that's that's how I'd play it right.

497
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 1: Now, all right, last of the one o'clock games. The

498
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos keep grinding out victories the last few weeks.

499
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:30,919
Speaker 1: They are now six and five. Quite a turnaround for

500
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, quite turn around for this defense. They are

501
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 1: three point underdogs as they travel to Houston coming off

502
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 1: a tough loss to the Jaguars. You know, Houston showed

503
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:40,920
Speaker 1: some of their inexperience. I think in that game. It's

504
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 1: a moments some of the play calling suspect, especially that

505
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 1: fourth and one late in the game, you know, trying

506
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,439
Speaker 1: to throw the ball fifteen yards downfield a Dalton Schultz

507
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 1: when all they needed was one. I just I did

508
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 1: not care for that. I thought that was a bad

509
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 1: play call and it did come back to haunt them

510
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 1: later in that game by that missfield goal. Forty six

511
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 1: and a half is the number for this one plus

512
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,719
Speaker 1: one four for Denver on the money line, Sam, this

513
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 1: is an interesting one here because I think all of

514
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 1: us immediately will go to Houston you know, Houston's been

515
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 1: a very solid team. Stroud has played great. Yes it

516
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 1: was a disappointing week, they bounce back. But the Denver

517
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 1: Broncos have been very formidable. They have been, like I said,

518
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: grinding out victories. Can they grind out another one here

519
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:20,200
Speaker 1: at plus one forty?

520
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 3: I think they've got a chance to so. They obviously

521
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 3: allowed the seventy points to the Dolphins all the way

522
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 3: back and I think it was week three or four.

523
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 3: In the Broncos five game winning streak that they have

524
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 3: going on, they've allowed just eighty total points on defense,

525
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 3: and that's an average about sixteen per game. Now. I

526
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 3: think again, this is similar to the Chargers line I

527
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 3: mentioned earlier of how does the how do the Broncos

528
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:53,399
Speaker 3: play this game? Early on? Because they have the sixth

529
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 3: lowest pass right over expectation this year. If they run

530
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 3: the ball against this Texans defense, which is fifth and

531
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 3: epa per play a rush allowed fifth or excuse me

532
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 3: fourth in rushing success rate allowed, then I think the

533
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 3: Texans are going to have a great chance to win.

534
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson has made some good throws. I mean, doesn't

535
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 3: look like he's playing nearly as bad as he was

536
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 3: last year, but I think CJ. Stroud will be able

537
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:26,360
Speaker 3: to take advantage of this Broncos defense as well. They

538
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 3: are excuse me, the Broncos are blitzing a ton, but

539
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 3: c J. Stroud has a seventy eight and a half

540
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 3: PFF grade against the blitz this year, which is eighth

541
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 3: highst in the league. I think they'll They'll probably get

542
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 3: Noel Brown back in this game. I just continue to

543
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 3: buy into the the Houston Texans and c J. Stroud

544
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 3: there the call of this my fandom or just loving

545
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 3: what they're doing this year. I agree that that third

546
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 3: and third and one and then fourth and one play

547
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 3: call was that was very suspect, just knowing what they

548
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:04,399
Speaker 3: sort of needed. But overall, I think this team in

549
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 3: general is just much much better than the Broncos, and

550
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 3: it's going to play out this way.

551
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 1: All right, Pat, how do you think this one plays out?

552
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 1: To me? I keep going to the individuals. I've been

553
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 1: betting the over on the cch strout passing yards every

554
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 1: week pretty much, and it's worked three of the last

555
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 1: four times for me. The Tankdale anytime touchdown score. I'm

556
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,399
Speaker 1: looking more of the individuals for this game because I

557
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 1: think this one is really tough to gauge, but this

558
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 1: is a game I do want to watch in the

559
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 1: one o'clock hour. So how about you? What do you

560
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 1: think about this contest between the Houston Texans and the

561
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos.

562
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 2: I actually love the Broncos here, Joe and I can

563
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 2: understand that, like if Houston is a fun team, I

564
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 2: get why Sam loves them. I love them too, like

565
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 2: they have been like the surprise enjoyable team to watch

566
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:50,119
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty three season. But they are over valued

567
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 2: in the betting markets now and have been for weeks.

568
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 2: And that's why I smashed the Jaguars last week, and

569
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 2: I'm going to smash the Broncos this week. And this

570
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 2: opened at Houston minus three, and it's all already moved

571
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 2: towards the Texans at minus three and a half. The

572
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 2: Broncos have won five straight, as Sam mentioned earlier, and

573
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 2: it's not like that has been a cupcake, but they

574
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,199
Speaker 2: they beat the Bills and Chiefs as part of that

575
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 2: win streak, and like their defense is tightened up considerably,

576
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 2: they can still be had a little bit on the run,

577
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 2: but they've gotten much tougher against the pass, so I

578
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 2: think they might actually match up pretty well. You know,

579
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 2: Sam mentioned like blitzing C. J. Stroud is a little dangerous,

580
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 2: But I do think they can slow down this Texans

581
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 2: pass offense. I think the Broncos getting three and a

582
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 2: half are a nice bet.

583
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: All right, let's move to the next one here at

584
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 1: four o'clock game Tampa Bay at four to seven will

585
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,959
Speaker 1: host the Carolina Panthers one to ten with a new

586
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: head coach. Because Frank Reich is out, Tampa is six

587
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 1: point favorites in this game. Thirty seven and a half

588
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 1: is the number and plus two fifteen on the Panthers'

589
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: money line. Now, oftentimes beat when the head coach gets fired,

590
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 1: I run right to bet the money line on that team.

591
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 1: I'm not doing that this week. I think. You know,

592
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 1: Tampa has had some ups and downs in these last

593
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: few weeks. They've been respectable. They've been competitive. They're good upfront,

594
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 1: which is the one thing I keep coming back to,

595
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 1: which is where obviously the deficit of the Carolina Panthers lies.

596
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 1: So do you think that they get any balance out

597
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: of this Frank right firing? Do you think the six

598
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 1: is too many points? What do you think about Tampa

599
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: and the Panthers.

600
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 2: I don't think we see the fired coach bounce Joe.

601
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 2: It does not feel like Ding dong the Witch is

602
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 2: Dead type situation like we saw with the Raiders and

603
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: Josh McDaniel. Like this does not have that same feel

604
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 2: to it. I can't lay five points with the Buccaneers

605
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 2: and you know this one open, it's set like I just.

606
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 1: Can't do that.

607
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 2: But I don't want to bet the Panthers either, especially

608
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 2: when I have so much concerns about their ability to

609
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 2: block the Buccaneers front. So I'm just staying away from

610
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 2: this one.

611
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: How about you, Sam? Do you see any early value

612
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 1: on this one?

613
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 3: So I actually kind of like the Panthers on the

614
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 3: money line, and it's there's a couple of reasons for

615
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 3: that you're leaning into this variance. We have a lot

616
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 3: of unknowns in this game, obviously with the Panthers and

617
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 3: the coaching side of things, sort of what they're going

618
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 3: to end up doing without Frank Reich. But on the

619
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 3: buccaneer side of the ball, Baker Mayfield got banged up. Now,

620
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 3: we did just get news that the MRI on his

621
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 3: ankle was negative for ligament damage, which is good, but

622
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 3: there's a chance he potentially could sit out this game.

623
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 3: And then you've got Kyle Trask, who still might be

624
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 3: a better quarterback than Bryce Young at this point. But

625
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 3: there It's what I think I would consider a high

626
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 3: entropy game, a game in which there could be a

627
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 3: lot of different ways for this to play out, and

628
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 3: you're just sort of buying into the variants and targeting

629
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 3: the plus money outcome to hopefully again get the benefit

630
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,239
Speaker 3: if there is a lot of variants. So it's not

631
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 3: it has nothing to do with liking the Panthers or

632
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 3: anything that they've doing. It's more so just a percentage

633
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 3: play and hoping that you land on the right side

634
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 3: of the variants. With the Panthers all.

635
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 1: Right, Well, the Eagles have continued to land on the

636
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 1: right side of the variants. Every close game they tend

637
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: to come out with a victory. They're ten and one

638
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: there at home. They're taking on the San Francisco forty

639
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 1: nine ers in a big time NFC matchup, and man,

640
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: the Eagles have been running this gauntlet. They are beating

641
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, They've beaten the Bills, they beat the Cowboys,

642
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 1: They've now have the San Francisco forty nine Ers and

643
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 1: the Cowboys again in the schedule is the toughest there is,

644
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 1: and yet with all these victories, they are underdogs in

645
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 1: their own building. Sam, I understand the forty nine Ers

646
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: have played really well in the last few weeks. I

647
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 1: get that. I think that the Eagles are going to

648
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 1: take this. Personally, I like the plus one twenty on

649
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 1: the money line for the Eagles. Forty six and a

650
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: half is the number? Tell me I'm wrong, Sam, I

651
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 1: want to hear this conversation. What do you think about

652
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers Eagles? Which is the marquee matchup of

653
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: the day.

654
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 3: For sure, this is gonna be a great game. I'm

655
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 3: really looking forward to it. If you use two to

656
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 3: one and a half points as home field advantage, this

657
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 3: line would suggest that the forty nine Ers are about

658
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 3: three and a half or four points better than the

659
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 3: Eagles on a neutral field. Now Impredictable, which uses past

660
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 3: performances and and upcoming betting lines to come up with

661
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 3: team power ratings, actually says that that's about right. But

662
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 3: that feels like a lot to me, So I think

663
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 3: I would lean with the Eagles now. Lane Johnson missed

664
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 3: the game yesterday against the Buffalo Bills. I think Philadelphia

665
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 3: might need him to have a good chance because Nick

666
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 3: Bosa lines up almost exclusively right across from right tackles.

667
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 3: So I think this is a game where again I

668
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 3: want to take the home dog in Philadelphia. But I'm

669
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 3: waiting a little bit to get some positive news on

670
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 3: Lane Johnson because while I don't think he truly moves

671
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 3: the market that much from a point spread perspective, I

672
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 3: do think it could change the outcome of the game.

673
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: Pat Fletcher Cox also had that groin injury. That's a

674
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 1: big piece if you don't have that upfront. The Eagles

675
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: are just so good on both sides of the ball

676
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 1: up front, and I think that's you know, at the

677
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 1: end of the day, we could talk all we want

678
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 1: about all the evolution of the NFL, but that's still

679
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 1: what wins football games in a lot of ways, and

680
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 1: Hurts has been outstanding. Hurts to me is the MVP,

681
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 1: and I don't know why he's not getting enough hype

682
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 1: for it. Maybe he is. He's pretty high up on

683
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 1: the board. But Pat, how do you see this one?

684
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 1: This is the game everybody wants to see. I've been

685
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: on the Eagles the last few weeks, I've been making

686
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 1: money on the money line. I feel like the Eagles

687
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 1: take this one personally, and I think they see that

688
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 1: by sitting out there and they win this game, they

689
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: know they've pretty much locked up that buy and I

690
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: think that is a huge thing. And there's only one

691
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 1: of those teams now in the last few years that

692
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 1: gets that.

693
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you mentioned how the Eagles have been fighting

694
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 2: their way through tough competition, Joe. I mean, it wasn't

695
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 2: that long ago that the forty nine were in a

696
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 2: three game losing streak and now they're favorite in Philly.

697
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,280
Speaker 2: And when I saw this open up as the forty

698
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 2: nine Ers being one and a half point favorites on

699
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 2: Sunday night, I kind of thought that by today that

700
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 2: line would move a little bit more towards the Eagles. No,

701
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 2: it actually went up to two and a half. Like,

702
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 2: it's not moving in the direction I thought it was

703
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 2: gonna move. I do understand that the forty nine Ers

704
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,920
Speaker 2: can probably throw a heavier punch than any team in

705
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 2: the NFL right now, Like when that offense is clicking,

706
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 2: they are just basically impossible to stop. But at the

707
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:39,280
Speaker 2: same time, like we saw the forty nine Ers defense

708
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 2: look pretty dreadful during that losing streak, especially that game

709
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 2: against the Vikings. If their pass rush doesn't get home.

710
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,760
Speaker 2: And you know, if Lane Johnson is okay, this Eagles

711
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 2: offensive line is pretty terrific and can maybe handle that

712
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 2: pass rush. Like AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith can definitely

713
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 2: do business against the forty nine ers cornerback. So, yes,

714
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 2: the forty nine can land a heavy punch, but that

715
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 2: doesn't mean they can't get out boxed by another really

716
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:05,800
Speaker 2: good team.

717
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 1: Look, color me skeptical too. You beat up on the Seahawks,

718
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 1: you beat up on the Buccaneers. It beat up on

719
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 1: the Jaguars defense, their secondary, Like, yeah, okay, that's great.

720
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 1: This is the Eagles now, this is the team that

721
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 1: went to the super Bowl. This is a team that's

722
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 1: ten and one. I just don't think they're getting enough

723
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 1: respect right now. I don't know what they've got to

724
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 1: do to earn it. The pass rush is ferocious, I

725
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:28,839
Speaker 1: get it. I'm also still skeptical that Brock Party can

726
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 1: go into a hostile building and go win you a

727
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 1: big game. I want to see that. I have not

728
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 1: seen that yet really happen. I mean, a real hostile building,

729
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: because Philly is a hostile environment. Just ask all those

730
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 1: Bills players. They'll pushing away fans. Let's get to the

731
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 1: next one here on this docket, maybe a little less exciting.

732
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 1: The Cleveland Browns, I don't know. Seven to four going

733
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 1: against the five and six Los Angeles Rams. This one's

734
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 1: in LA. The Rams are four and a half point

735
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 1: favorites in this game. Thirty nine and a half is

736
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 1: the number plus one eighty for Cleveland on the victory

737
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 1: on certain here with the quarterback situation again, a DTR

738
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 1: will wait to hear more clarity on him. Maybe we

739
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: get PJ. Walker, But I don't know, Pat, does this

740
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:12,280
Speaker 1: seem odd to you? How is this Cleveland this far away?

741
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 1: In plus four and a half? I want the Cleveland

742
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 1: side of this game.

743
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just because the Browns offense is so dreadful

744
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 2: with the quarterback situation, Joe, Like, that's it, And that's

745
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 2: that's why I'm not really interested in either side of

746
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,800
Speaker 2: this game. I'm mildly interested in the under though, because

747
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 2: that Brown's offense is so dreadful, and because the Browns

748
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 2: defense is still very legit. Although I kind of want

749
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 2: to see what's up with Miles Garrett since he appeared

750
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 2: to be injured in that game, like he you know,

751
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 2: just didn't seem like he was fully healthy. So I

752
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,320
Speaker 2: want to see if he shows up on the injury report.

753
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 2: If he does not, then you can definitely interest me

754
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 2: in the under.

755
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 1: Under sounds good to me too. Look, defense travels, you

756
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 1: run the football no matter who's playing quarterback. PJ. Walker

757
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 1: has been competitive in some of these games. I don't

758
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 1: have too many questions here, Like, I just think four

759
00:36:58,320 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 1: and a half has too many points and too much

760
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 1: respect for the Rams just because they beat up on

761
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,360
Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals. Sam, do you see things differently?

762
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 3: I don't, But I still struggle to buy into the Browns.

763
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,400
Speaker 3: This is one I don't have much of a lenon

764
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 3: right now. It's just that, not that there's a lot

765
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 3: of unknowns. I just can't get a read on what

766
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 3: these two much are. Again. Yeah, I mean, like the Rams.

767
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 3: The Rams have been sort of all over the place

768
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 3: this year in terms of their offensive performances. We know

769
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 3: what the Browns are on offense and defense, which I

770
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 3: guess is contract to my point, but it's still I'd

771
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 3: just want to stay away.

772
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the primetime games. Kansas City

773
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 1: eight and three travels to Green Bay to take on

774
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 1: the Packers. They are six and a half point favorites

775
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 1: at minus one twelve forty. Two and a half is

776
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 1: the number. Green Bay is plus two forty on the

777
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 1: money line. All right, so Packers big win extra time?

778
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 1: Does it matter? Is the six and a half safe

779
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 1: here for the Chiefs? Sam?

780
00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 3: I think so. I I want to buy into the

781
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 3: Packers because Jordan Love has played pretty well the last

782
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 3: four weeks. Since Week nine, he ranks third in EPA

783
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 3: per play, seventh in success rate, seventh in completion percentage

784
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 3: over expectation, and seventh in PFF grade. So he is

785
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 3: playing much much better. Like he looks a lot more

786
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 3: comfortable in the pocket when he's getting pressured. That said,

787
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 3: it's been two games against the Chargers and the Lions,

788
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 3: which have some pretty bad defenses. The Chiefs still have

789
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 3: one of the best defenses in the league. I think

790
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 3: the Chiefs offense, despite a couple of drops again in

791
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 3: the game against Las Vegas, found their footing a little bit.

792
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 3: I think they'll be able to run on this Packers defense,

793
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:53,800
Speaker 3: which got gashed on the ground once again. Against Detroit,

794
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 3: and I think again, with the Packers' zone heavy scheme,

795
00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey will just be able to

796
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 3: take advantage of it.

797
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:04,479
Speaker 1: A ton pat your thoughts on Green Bay case.

798
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 2: The difference between the six and a half points this

799
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 2: is sitting at now in the seven points it opened

800
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 2: at is pretty monumental. I was mildly interested in the

801
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,399
Speaker 2: Packers at seven points, Joe, but at six and a half,

802
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:20,320
Speaker 2: I just can't do it. It's something of a revenge

803
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 2: game for Jordan love because when he made his first

804
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 2: NFL start two years ago, it was in Kansas City

805
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 2: when Aaron Rodgers had COVID nineteen. It was very ugly

806
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 2: and the Packers defense actually overachieved and threw a blanket

807
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 2: on Patrick Mahomes that game. But Jordan Love like couldn't

808
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 2: even pick up a first down that game, so the

809
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 2: Packers lost a low scoring rock fight. I think we'll

810
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 2: see more offense in this one, and I think the

811
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:49,840
Speaker 2: over is somewhat interesting, But man, I don't see value

812
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 2: in either side.

813
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 1: Quite honestly, I see value with the six and a

814
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:55,359
Speaker 1: half on casey give me, give me the Chiefs here

815
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 1: to figure things out. They started off slow against the

816
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 1: Raiders and they figured things out. I just think that's

817
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,359
Speaker 1: where they are. I think they're just kind of one

818
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 1: of these teams that's just kind of floating around there.

819
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 1: They know how good they are, and you know, sometimes

820
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: they're not good enough and sometimes they don't execute enough.

821
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,440
Speaker 1: Now that pass rush in Green Bay, if they can

822
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 1: bring that what they brought over a Jared Goff to Mahomes,

823
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: that's gonna be interesting. So we'll keep an eye on that.

824
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:17,400
Speaker 1: But right now, I'm confident with a six and a

825
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 1: half on Casey last one here. Maybe this would have

826
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 1: been a lot more fun a few weeks ago theoretically

827
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 1: than it is now. The Jacksonville Jaguars at home eight

828
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 1: and three taking on the Bengals of five and six.

829
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,799
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow set to have his surgery today, so we're

830
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 1: not gonna have him obviously the rest of season. But

831
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 1: the eight points is the total is the number here?

832
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: Excuse me? The Jacksonville Jaguars are favored by it's a

833
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,840
Speaker 1: pretty good sized number for the Jags coming off a

834
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 1: huge win. Thirty nine is the over under plus three

835
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,759
Speaker 1: hundred for the Bengals. Upset your thoughts, pat On this

836
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,760
Speaker 1: game is eight too much or just about right.

837
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 2: Just about right. I don't see any value in this.

838
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 2: Jaguars are a really good team. It's said that we're

839
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 2: not getting a Joe Burrow Trevor Lawrence matchup that would

840
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:02,840
Speaker 2: have been fantastic. The line seems right. I just I

841
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:04,919
Speaker 2: feel sorry for the Bengals and having to go into

842
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 2: this game without their their swaggy QB. So I don't

843
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 2: think I'm gonna touch this one.

844
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:13,280
Speaker 1: Sam, you touching this Monday Night contest?

845
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 3: I'm not. The Jacksonville Jaguars are obviously been a very

846
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 3: good team this year, currently in contention for the number

847
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:28,280
Speaker 3: one seed, which would make my bank account very happy.

848
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 3: But the Jaguars just like haven't totally been able to

849
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 3: put teams away. They had to blow out win against

850
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 3: the Titans a couple of weeks ago, but just a

851
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 3: ten point win over the Steelers, a seven point win

852
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 3: over New Orleans like They're just it doesn't seem like

853
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 3: they're totally equipped to put teams away. They have one

854
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 3: of the worst rushing offenses in the league, so if

855
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 3: they are passing the ball a ton, and I think

856
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 3: that's where one of the bigger weaknesses for Cincinnati's defenses,

857
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 3: then for sure. I love the Jaguars, but I'm not

858
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:04,760
Speaker 3: sure that that's going to be the case this Sunday,

859
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 3: so excuse me next Monday. So I'm staying away from

860
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:09,839
Speaker 3: this one as well.

861
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 1: I like the individuals in this game. I like the

862
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 1: ATN overs. Whatever they're going to put them at doesn't matter,

863
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 1: I'm going over. I like the Calvin Ridley anytime touchdown

864
00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 1: score too. He has been read hot the last few weeks.

865
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 1: I like that trend. Finally, it seems like things are

866
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 1: going in the right direction after a lot of concern.

867
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Speaker 1: I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids.

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Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

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Speaker 4: Channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros