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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by Betfree six ' five.

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Speaker 1: We are part of the Action Network. I am Chad Millman,

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Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today is our

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Speaker 1: week eight Thursday NFL episode. This is the episode where

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Speaker 1: we get feedback from the wise guys who listen to

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Speaker 1: the show with our sharp calls. Where we make our

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Speaker 1: survivor pick and build our money line Underdog Round Robin Parlay.

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Speaker 1: We give out our foxhol Bet, our Big Balls bet

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Speaker 1: of the Week. We narrow down our picks for the

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Speaker 1: free to play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro

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Speaker 1: Football Pick Them contest. As our old pal Colin Cowhard

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Speaker 1: likes to say, there's a sea of money out.

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Speaker 2: There, because there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,

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Speaker 1: you can check them out on the contest website Favorites

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Speaker 1: dot Actionnetwork dot com when we lock them in before

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Speaker 1: kickoff on Sunday. If you prefer using the award winning

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Speaker 1: Action app, you can also track all the bets. Simon

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Speaker 1: and I lock in by following two accounts, The Faves

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Speaker 1: five and The Favorites Podcast. Now, let's bring in my

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Speaker 1: co host, my companion, Mike and Padre my bff professional

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Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter Eto saw im in.

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Speaker 2: Hello Hot Chad about to do a quick rant. I

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Speaker 2: feel like we have a lot of new listeners, a

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Speaker 2: lot of questions, and they're asking about how mean you

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Speaker 2: came together. So I figured I'd give them a quick story.

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Speaker 1: I have no idea where you're going when you say quick, rent,

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Speaker 1: so when you say you're going to do a little

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Speaker 1: story time, it makes me a little more.

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Speaker 2: Comfortable, you know, I always forget that we get so

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Speaker 2: many new listeners and yeah, yeah, you guys were talking

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Speaker 2: the other day about how much the show's grown and

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Speaker 2: we're like the number one gambling podcast. So I figured, yeah,

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Speaker 2: me and Chad, this is our fifth season doing it together, right, brother. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: When I joined Chad, it was just like most best

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Speaker 2: relationships of my life come together. I reached out to

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Speaker 2: him and let me be the guy in the shadow

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Speaker 2: giving you picks, and Chad was like, no, why don't

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Speaker 2: you come on the actual show and get picks? And

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Speaker 2: I told him, I don't want people to know my

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Speaker 2: name or my face. I have no interest in being

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Speaker 2: famous right in life. If you already have the money.

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Speaker 2: You really don't need the fame, and I already had

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Speaker 2: the money in my twenties. And when I joined Chad,

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Speaker 2: there was no video. It was in podcast medium and

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Speaker 2: it was me, Chad and Darren Revel. Darren was just

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Speaker 2: a wait, weighing us down, and basically everything I would say,

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Speaker 2: Darren would question because it's Darren Revel. I think it

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Speaker 2: was like a ten to fifteen minute segment and I

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Speaker 2: ended up coming on here and sometimes I'd be here

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Speaker 2: for like thirty minutes because we ended up going through

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Speaker 2: all the games just because Chad would be like, what

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Speaker 2: do you think of this game? What do you think

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Speaker 2: of this game? Yeah, the following year it was just

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Speaker 2: me and Chad. Obviously it's our best year we ever had.

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Speaker 2: I think we went sixty seven percent for the season.

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Speaker 2: We finished top twenty in the money. Me him, Matt

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Speaker 2: Mitchell split up a nice, nice little paycheck from the

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Speaker 2: contest you're in, and you know, the show's just growing.

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Speaker 2: Now we're up to three episodes a week. You know,

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Speaker 2: we started with just one episode a week, one hour

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Speaker 2: a week. Now we're up to three. And yeah, I

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Speaker 2: used to not be an employee. I wasn't paid me

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Speaker 2: and Chad made a deal. I think after my second

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Speaker 2: year they did pay me. And I'm not here for

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Speaker 2: the money, I promise you. I think it was last week.

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Speaker 2: I got up at two am, five am and then

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Speaker 2: five am. Yad, there's no money Chad's paying me. That

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Speaker 2: makes that worth it in my life, people like I

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Speaker 2: got into this business to go to bed at two am,

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Speaker 2: five am and five am, not wake up to come

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Speaker 2: here and talk to you guys, so you knew people

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Speaker 2: when you bitch at me here complaining to me. Everything

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Speaker 2: I do is free. I've never taken a penny from anyone.

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Speaker 2: And my whole goal joining Chad was I hate how

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Speaker 2: the system was set up that the rich we're getting

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Speaker 2: all the good information. And my goal was to join Chad.

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Speaker 2: Let people know what the pros are betting. It's media.

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Speaker 2: People are gonna talk about me, They're gonna question me.

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Speaker 2: Could I sell picks and make a shit ton of money? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: Like it's pretty easy to sell picks the dumb ass

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Speaker 2: people lying, but there's nothing to gain in it. Like

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Speaker 2: what I love about this show is nothing's changed since

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Speaker 2: I joined Chad. It's a free show. We give free picks.

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Speaker 2: I'm not here to gain anything from you. I'm not

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Speaker 2: here to swindle you. I'm just here to tell you

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Speaker 2: how I'm betting, how other pros are betting, and hopefully

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Speaker 2: we win. Like me and Chat had been very fortunate

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Speaker 2: where we're like we're above sixty percent. That's what matters

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Speaker 2: to all these people. My main goal is to get

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Speaker 2: you guys thinking like pros, where you can see these

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Speaker 2: shit lines a mile away, like this Green Bay Vikings

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Speaker 2: line this week. That was a ship line that most

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Speaker 2: of you messaged me and you saw it a mile away.

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Speaker 2: That makes me so happy, Like that's really honestly my

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Speaker 2: goal of the show. So just people new to the show,

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Speaker 2: there's no endgame here. My goal is just the more

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Speaker 2: we do, the better this show does, the better my

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Speaker 2: life keeps getting. So now look anything for you here.

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Speaker 2: I'm just if you're gonna talk shit to me, you

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Speaker 2: can do it during a losing week. When we win

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Speaker 2: and you talk shit to me, I'm going to block

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Speaker 2: you this Everything we do is free here. People, just

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Speaker 2: learn from the veteran listeners of the show. Trust us.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna have bad weeks. A two and three is

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Speaker 2: a bad week for me and Chat, so please stick

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Speaker 2: with us for the season, like there's a method to

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Speaker 2: our madness.

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Speaker 1: I have so much to say about what you just said,

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Speaker 1: but we got to keep rolling, man. So I love

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Speaker 1: that you did it. I love that you explained it.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad to hear it makes you happy.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't beginning at five in the morning if it

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Speaker 2: didn't chat.

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Speaker 1: I know it, brother, I love you. You're the best.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: eight kickoff is approaching. We're seeing opportunities all over the board.

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Speaker 1: It's not dilly dally, it's time. Four sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain rain alphone.

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Speaker 1: Somebody saying, maybe you do man, Simon. Who's calling us?

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Speaker 1: What are they saying?

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Speaker 2: Pretty easy week from the pros? I mean they're they're

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Speaker 2: from the same perspective as us, Chad. You have a

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Speaker 2: lot of home dogs this week, and they're divisional dogs,

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Speaker 2: and we're lit enough in the season now where that matters,

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Speaker 2: and the public perception we're re valuing these road favorites.

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Speaker 2: They don't learn. They didn't learn last week, They're not

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Speaker 2: gonna learn again this week. So shocking to know. On

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Speaker 2: these are probably gonna be some of our big balls

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Speaker 2: bets bets. We're gonna be having our contest, no doubt

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Speaker 2: the commanders. The pros love the commanders that loved them

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Speaker 2: all week. No shock there. The hope is it gets

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Speaker 2: back to seven. I don't know if the pros are

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Speaker 2: gonna let it get to seven, but that's a game

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Speaker 2: we're gonna break down. Chad Denver we talked about it

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Speaker 2: was eight and a half. Now it's down to seven.

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Speaker 2: Right the books aren't your friends. They're not letting you

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Speaker 2: get down a good number to tease now, right now,

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Speaker 2: it's down to minus one if you're throw it in

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Speaker 2: a teaser, fishy fishy line. And Evan told is like

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Speaker 2: Mahomes against the West straight up, it's free money. Like

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Speaker 2: the dude's lost. I think Evan said two games in

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Speaker 2: the last like seven years, something crazy like that. So, yeah,

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Speaker 2: twenty nine and three, thank you having that's I can't

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Speaker 2: run my head around my home is twenty nine and

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Speaker 2: three straight up against his division. It's just God numbers.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, the Pros love Denver. There's a seven and

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Speaker 2: a half still out there. I'd grab it. I think

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Speaker 2: it's going to disappear. I just think the Pros are

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Speaker 2: gonna pound this down. They just they got a lot

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Speaker 2: of guys I talked to have this number at six.

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Speaker 2: I have this number at seven. So if it does

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Speaker 2: get to six and a half, technically the value is

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Speaker 2: now in the Chiefs. But in contest, if me and

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Speaker 2: Chad I gets seven and a half Denver, it's an

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Speaker 2: automatic play for us, Like we just love that spot.

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Speaker 2: So no shock there not too much love for Chad's

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Speaker 2: Dallas pick. Shockingly, I was gonna see if anyone's out

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Speaker 2: there liked it too. It's not. I think Chad knows

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Speaker 2: it's a little chalky, but you know, maybe we'll make

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Speaker 2: it our survivor pick. I don't know, that's just that's

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Speaker 2: that was just a funny playboy. But I asked a

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Speaker 2: bunch of different guys. Don't have a real read on that.

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Speaker 2: They liked our jobs pick. Obviously that number's gone up,

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Speaker 2: so that wasn't the best. Simon says. I thought it

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Speaker 2: was gonna go down from three. It's just stayed at three.

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Speaker 2: And most books have moved at the three. And you know,

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Speaker 2: the last one I will give Chad flowers for he

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Speaker 2: was on the Seahawks. They were two and a half

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Speaker 2: earlier in the week. That was the right play with

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Speaker 2: all the question marks around Watson. You know they're coming

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Speaker 2: off a big road wind. Now they're triving, traveling across

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Speaker 2: the country to Seattle. Chad got a good number. I

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Speaker 2: think you got a two and a half, right, Chad.

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Speaker 2: Now it's up to four and a lot of books.

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Speaker 2: You know, a couple of pros are on that like

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Speaker 2: they elected at three, they elected at two and a half.

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Speaker 2: I just totally missed it where in my mind it

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Speaker 2: was just like I don't know that front four of

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Speaker 2: Cleveland against the Seahawks. Oh line, that's a big advantage

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Speaker 2: to me towards that Cleveland team. But obviously you know

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Speaker 2: it's PJ. Walker, Like that's that's the that's that's what's

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Speaker 2: moving that number. Like the fact you can we all

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Speaker 2: can badmouth Watson all he wont he hasn't looked right,

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Speaker 2: You still me worth two or three points of the

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Speaker 2: spread compared to PJ at Walker. So not shocking to

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Speaker 2: see that numbers move so much, but I was shocked

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Speaker 2: here that pros loved it so much that the Pros

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Speaker 2: roll over the Seahawks. I'm probably still going up on

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Speaker 2: the Browns, Like now that it's up to four. If

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Speaker 2: it gets a four and a half, how do I

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Speaker 2: not take the Browns defense catching that many points. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's that's it for Sharp, cause just they just basically

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Speaker 2: were allowing me, you Chad the home divisional dogs like

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Speaker 2: this week, we probably have to play all three of

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Speaker 2: them if they're just they're at good numbers right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the more I did the research over the last

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Speaker 1: forty eight hours, the clearer it became where I think

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Speaker 1: we were going to land with our five. So let's

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Speaker 1: let's let's dig a little bit deeper. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: you can catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube.

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Speaker 1: For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us

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Speaker 1: a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.

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Speaker 1: By the way, before we jump into our picks, don't

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Speaker 1: forget the NBA season has a fit we tipped off.

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Speaker 1: If you like betting the NBA, be sure to check

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Speaker 1: out Buckets, Action Networks Basketball betting podcast with new episodes

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Speaker 1: every single weekday this NBA season. That name again is Buckets,

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Speaker 1: available wherever you listen to podcasts. It's great. It's like

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Speaker 1: the perfect daily dose for betting early in the morning,

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Speaker 1: fifteen to twenty minutes. It's outstanding. All right, let's narrow

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Speaker 1: down our games. We got to get to the foxhole.

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Speaker 1: We got to get to our survivor, we got to

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Speaker 1: get to big balls. Here's the games we talked about

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Speaker 1: the most. There's a lot of important injury news, right,

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Speaker 1: So there's Brock party news, there's potential Tyreek Hill News,

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Speaker 1: there's the PJ. Walker News, Like a lot of stuff

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Speaker 1: to break down in these games. I'm just gonna say,

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Speaker 1: Dallas minus six, I think everybody's wrong. This defense is

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Speaker 1: so good coming off a buy against a bad Rams offense.

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Speaker 1: I know why the wise guys don't like it. I

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Speaker 1: know why it's Chalky Dak is a big fave at

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Speaker 1: home in this spot with this defense. Like I know

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Speaker 1: a lot of stuff, and I'm telling you, you say

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Speaker 1: it's very off brand for me, almost like you're sad

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Speaker 1: for me, like you said on Tuesday, this is five

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Speaker 1: years ago for me. But it just doesn't make sense

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Speaker 1: why people aren't on the Cowboys. I know you don't

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Speaker 1: want to put it in the contest, but I'm telling you,

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Speaker 1: Cowboys are going to blow this team out. To the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: I hate the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: As I said, they need to because it's a big number.

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Speaker 2: That's that's my issue. I think that's a lot of

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Speaker 2: the pros issue where it's like seven six and a half.

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Speaker 2: How do you not take the Rams at that number.

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Speaker 2: That's such a big number that the Cowboys will have

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Speaker 2: to blow them out. Like at that number you kind

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Speaker 2: of need to dominate because the back door will always

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Speaker 2: be open, and that's the fear, right, And that was

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Speaker 2: the same thing where I didn't get the love for

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Speaker 2: the Vikings on Monday Night, right, all the pros are

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Speaker 2: all over it. They're talking about They're like the seven

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Speaker 2: and a half, it's just too big. Seven's too big

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Speaker 2: for that Vikings team. I didn't get it. And their

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Speaker 2: whole reasoning was that backdoor will always be open, Like

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Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers team at injuries, They're like, they're

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Speaker 2: not going to be blown out the Vikings even if

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Speaker 2: they're up by ten or eleven points the end of

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Speaker 2: the game. I trust Kirk to get me the back door.

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Speaker 2: That's how I feel like most pros feel about the

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Speaker 2: Stafford play man. It's like, you know, he does lose righty,

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Speaker 2: like they've been losing this year. I think they're three

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Speaker 2: and four. He's always got them in the game, like

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Speaker 2: they're always competitive, and he usually is the one the

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Speaker 2: reason why they don't win. Right. He makes the mistakes

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Speaker 2: where he doesn't convert the third downs, and that's falling

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Speaker 2: apart for this team. So the problem for this play

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Speaker 2: is you need Dak to finally play well right, And

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Speaker 2: Dak played really well against the Chargers, right, I think

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Speaker 2: he's only incompletions were to Gallop. Gallup was the only

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Speaker 2: guy that wasn't He wasn't able to comp to. I

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Speaker 2: think at a perfect game, target is always the receivers.

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Speaker 2: There's never been a question about Dak and that kind

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Speaker 2: of stuff. It's it's more about that offense in the

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Speaker 2: red zone. They've had major issues. McCarthy calls some of

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Speaker 2: the worst run plays. The timing he calls is just terrible.

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Speaker 2: Like it's second and ten, he'll just run into the

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Speaker 2: back of his line, and now it's third and nine.

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Speaker 2: It's just he keeps putting Dak in disadvantaged positions. So

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Speaker 2: that that's the biggest issue here with me is there's

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Speaker 2: a big coaching advantage towards the Rams, and it's a

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Speaker 2: big number. Chat So if this gets to five and

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Speaker 2: a half in our contest, I could be swayed like

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Speaker 2: that that to me, that that shifts the value to

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys team. But yeah, this number is presently six

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Speaker 2: and a half. Six. I still lean towards the Rams here,

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Speaker 2: So I don't hate where you're coming from. I just

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Speaker 2: I'm giving the perspective of That's why it's just not

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Speaker 2: one of my favorite five. There's too many variables here

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Speaker 2: for me to take that big of a number with

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Speaker 2: this Cowboys team.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, we'll see what happens in the contest. Number

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Speaker 1: Minnesota at green Bay the first of the divisional dogs

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Speaker 1: that you're talking about. Green Bay plus one has been

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Speaker 1: the play. I think our biggest disappointment is that this

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Speaker 1: line didn't get higher. It's sort of stayed at plus one.

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Speaker 1: I think the wise guys have been coming in and

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Speaker 1: even stucky. On the podcast on the Action Network Thursday

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Speaker 1: episode with Raybond liked green Bay at plus one. We

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Speaker 1: thought it might ohigher after Minnesota beat the Niners. It didn't.

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Speaker 1: This is a huge pros Joe's game. Sixty percent of

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Speaker 1: the tickets on Minnesota, eighty percent of the money on

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Speaker 1: the pack. We both bet it at plus one. Minnesota

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Speaker 1: was very lucky last week. Three turnovers from the Niners

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Speaker 1: uncharacteristic blitz at the end of the first half to

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Speaker 1: give the Vikings a sixty yard touchdown pass put it

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Speaker 1: in Like it's a no brainer to me. It stayed

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Speaker 1: at one. It's going to be at that in the contest.

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Speaker 1: I don't know why we're not taking the Packers in

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Speaker 1: the contest.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and don't need much breakdown on this one. People

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Speaker 2: completely get where we're coming from. It's the perfect spot

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Speaker 2: to buy low on. Green Bay already broke it down

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Speaker 2: on Tuesday. Vikings coming off the win of the year,

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Speaker 2: right beating a team that everyone viewed as one of

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Speaker 2: the best teams in football and primetime game as a

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Speaker 2: big dog one out right now going on the road

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Speaker 2: against a green Bay team that no one likes, No

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Speaker 2: one wants to bet this team, like she had just said,

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Speaker 2: it's only pro money coming on green Bay like anyone else.

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Speaker 2: They thought they were getting easy bet last week. They're

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Speaker 2: like green Bay money line against Denver minus one ten.

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Speaker 2: I'll take it every day. They are so mad at

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Speaker 2: this green Bay team, especially if you watch that game

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Speaker 2: where you know Love if the guys as bad as

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Speaker 2: you want to say Love was. The guys just weren't

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Speaker 2: getting open like I rewatched that game is whide receiver

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Speaker 2: to getting no separation in walks. Here. This Minnesota team

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Speaker 2: that just is not that good, like Purdy was throwing

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Speaker 2: it all over them. You guys opened all over them

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Speaker 2: like they just had that weird McCaffrey turnover right, and

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Speaker 2: then McCaffrey, you know, stayed in the game. They played well,

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Speaker 2: they were getting back into it. Purty gets that what

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Speaker 2: people are calling a concussion on that QB Sneak throws

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Speaker 2: a pick the next play, then they come back out

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00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:07,840
Speaker 2: he throws another pick. And this is all after what

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Speaker 2: people think he got an injury to his head. So

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Speaker 2: it's like Minnesota had so many things break right, including

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Speaker 2: Kirk played incredible. I mean, at any time he dropped back,

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Speaker 2: I felt confident, Kirk throwing the ball downfield, Hockinson getting

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Speaker 2: open anytime he wanted. I just love Green Bay and

345
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Speaker 2: the spot for a bounce back, like the fact that

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Speaker 2: it was up to one and a half. That was

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Speaker 2: going to be an auto play for me and Chad

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Speaker 2: in the contest. Now, if it flips them back to

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Speaker 2: me in a favorite, which we've seen most books do,

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Speaker 2: we'll still do it. But Chad, he keeps reading that

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Speaker 2: stat from Evan about these these favorites. I go to

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Speaker 2: dogs back to favorites. It's usually not great for them.

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Speaker 2: But how do we not do it? How do we

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Speaker 2: not take Green Bay here? So I loved all the

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Speaker 2: people that reach out to me. They're like I love this,

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Speaker 2: I'm all over this, and it's just great. That's just

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Speaker 2: what makes me happy. Where it's just like, even if

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Speaker 2: this loses people, trust the idea and the concept of it,

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Speaker 2: where it's like you're getting the divisional dog in a

360
00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,679
Speaker 2: bilo spot, this will cash for you long term. So

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Speaker 2: again we're not always going to be right. Me and

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Speaker 2: Chad's goal is three and two. This fields have got

363
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Speaker 2: three and two. Play gotta get Green Bay in the

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Speaker 2: contest overall.

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Speaker 1: Dogs and divisional games the past decade, sixty games above

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Speaker 1: five hundred. Since twenty twenty, forty games above five hundred.

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Speaker 1: So like that, this is spot Simon Hunter, the Robin

368
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Speaker 1: hoood of wives guys, just bringing bringing the riches of

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Speaker 1: the bad guys to the poor people. That's what you're

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Speaker 1: doing New England at Miami. So on Tuesday you were

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Speaker 1: very aggressive about Miami. This numbers at nine. Tito, who

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Speaker 1: mostly spends this show producer Tito, prior to the show

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Speaker 1: getting yelled at by Matt Mitchell in ways I've never

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Speaker 1: heard Matt Mitchell yell at anybody, and then trying to

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Speaker 1: convince us all about South Florida Sports told us that

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Speaker 1: yesterday in the press conference, Tua was suspect about Tyreek

377
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Speaker 1: Hill because Tyreek Kill missed the practice and his potential

378
00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,240
Speaker 1: to play on Sunday. We don't know what's happening there.

379
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Speaker 1: All we have is Tito listening to press conferences from

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Speaker 1: Tua in Miami. But I will say I listened to

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Speaker 1: the Action Pod this morning. Stucky loves New England. Here

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00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:29,119
Speaker 1: you love Miami on Tuesday. I don't know where to

383
00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,439
Speaker 1: go with this right now, and I was thinking, like,

384
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Speaker 1: oh my god, are we going to put a massive

385
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Speaker 1: favorite in the contest Now I'm not so sure.

386
00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, the tire stuff's not ideal, Like I would feel

387
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 2: a lot better if Tiger was in there. It's just

388
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 2: such a game changer with Tim and Wattle on the

389
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Speaker 2: field together.

390
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:48,400
Speaker 1: But Model's got his back thing, and they're already missing

391
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 1: people on the offensive line, and their defense stinks. And

392
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Speaker 1: the Patriots, who knows, maybe they figured something out, maybe

393
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:58,359
Speaker 1: they got healthier, Maybe Bill O'Brien all of a sudden

394
00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:00,880
Speaker 1: they're a little bit more effective. Shortened the game, There's

395
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Speaker 1: gonna be high winds. It feels like we're setting ourselves

396
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Speaker 1: up there.

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Speaker 2: I just can't get behind New England, though, like, even

398
00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,760
Speaker 2: if Tyreek's out, I just maybe I'll just stay away

399
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 2: from the game. But I'm either ben Miam or just

400
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 2: staying away.

401
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,119
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not advocated we put in New England

402
00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,159
Speaker 1: in the contest. I'm just saying I can't see how

403
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Speaker 1: we're gonna put Miami in the contest.

404
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,159
Speaker 2: Maybe I'll be able to amja come someday morning, but

405
00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 2: this just feels like I don't want to call it

406
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,680
Speaker 2: a lazy bet on the Patriots, but it's just like, yeah,

407
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,159
Speaker 2: they look like they got things right against the Bills

408
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,880
Speaker 2: and all things are forgiven. It's just like, I don't know, man,

409
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Speaker 2: I can't get all that stuff out of my head.

410
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Speaker 2: Of Mac Jones, like the kid, maybe he just had

411
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,440
Speaker 2: a good a good spot against the Bills. Or maybe

412
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Speaker 2: the Bills beat themselves by doing nothing in the first half.

413
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Speaker 2: And given that New England a big lead, right, what

414
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:45,639
Speaker 2: were they up? Were they up ten nothing or fourteen

415
00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:47,520
Speaker 2: nothing on the Bills to start that game. We're in

416
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Speaker 2: a different world here with this Miami team, like their offense.

417
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,639
Speaker 2: If they get down fourteen, I honestly feel more confident

418
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Speaker 2: in this offense than I do in the Bills offense.

419
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Speaker 2: But if you go back and watch that Patriots first

420
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Speaker 2: time around, they played it perfectly and they had all

421
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Speaker 2: their guys like they had everyone healthy. Now they don't

422
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Speaker 2: have their two best defenders now for this Miami team.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, Tier injury is a big deal. But even

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Speaker 2: if he's out, I'll probably still have a decent amount

425
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Speaker 2: on Miami. I just just want to make it one

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Speaker 2: of our five.

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Speaker 1: The next game, I want to talk about the New

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Speaker 1: York Jets and the New York Giants. This game's at three.

429
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:24,440
Speaker 1: This was your Simon says. We thought it might move

430
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:26,479
Speaker 1: a little bit. It's kind of stay where it is,

431
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 1: but I'm fine with that. But thinking about the Giants

432
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:35,159
Speaker 1: as dogs. Tarad Taylor playing quarterback for the Giants, he

433
00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 1: covers he doesn't make mistakes, and right now Brian Daball

434
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 1: is looking for guys who won't make mistakes and screw

435
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 1: everything up for the Giants because that's been the reason

436
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,120
Speaker 1: they're losing. You've already heard me get my rant on

437
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 1: the Jets defense. I'm not saying they're mediocre, but I

438
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:56,400
Speaker 1: do think they've been turnover dependent and that's what's helped

439
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,439
Speaker 1: put them in a position to win games right, thirteen

440
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:03,120
Speaker 1: turnovers forced this season, sixteen all of last year. Other

441
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 1: than that, a lot of their statistics they are middle

442
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 1: of the road in terms of what they are doing statistically.

443
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 1: So we like the Giants here.

444
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, and if Daniel Jones is named the starter on Sunday,

445
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 2: I'll probably buy out on most of my position on

446
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:22,880
Speaker 2: the Giants here. I just I don't feel confident him

447
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 2: because he does turn the ball over. And that's what

448
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 2: Chad's just talking about here. It's like the Giants, Yes,

449
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 2: they're not that good, but they are well coached and

450
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 2: when you're not turning the ball over, that's how they

451
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:35,360
Speaker 2: can stay in these games. And against the Jets team,

452
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:37,879
Speaker 2: that's just it's just too much value. Like people are

453
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,119
Speaker 2: just forgetting what Zach Wilson has been. And I do

454
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 2: agree he has improved, but he's not consistent. And that's

455
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 2: that's the thing where it's like, yeah, he might have

456
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:47,880
Speaker 2: these moments here where he will complete that third down.

457
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 2: He'll be like, oh, I'm back in on Zach Wilson,

458
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 2: Like he can make these throws, but then he'll just

459
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 2: throw a couple of duds the next three throws. He's

460
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 2: just inconsistent. So the fact that it is three, it's like,

461
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 2: we get it. They got a ton more talent, right.

462
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 2: The Jets have a lot more blue Chippers, as you

463
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 2: would say, like they have a lot of really good

464
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,159
Speaker 2: guys in their team. But this Giants is just so

465
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 2: well put together. And even in that Washington game, like

466
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 2: it was close, Washington seemed like they were out playing

467
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 2: them the whole game. But I never really had any

468
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,920
Speaker 2: doubt that the Giants were gonna somehow cover that number.

469
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 2: It just felt like they were the better team. So

470
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 2: a lot of stuff the Giants do is what I

471
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 2: talk about a lot of these defenses do, which is

472
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 2: like they'll they'll give you up, They'll give up all

473
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:28,679
Speaker 2: the r's you want, but once you get in the

474
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 2: red zone, that's when they throw those clamps down. And offensively,

475
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 2: I don't think they've yet played a great game. And

476
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 2: Chad talked about there's some things you can do here

477
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 2: that match up well for the Giants against the Jets,

478
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 2: and the biggest one is Waller. Like Waller had a

479
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 2: great game last week, he matches up very well against

480
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 2: this linebacking core of the Jets, Like that's a weakness

481
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 2: of this Jets team. Covering tight ends. So a couple

482
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 2: of things I do like about the Giants team, but

483
00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 2: it's mainly the number, Like we're getting plus three. Maybe

484
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,199
Speaker 2: we're walking right into it, me and Chad, and this

485
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,120
Speaker 2: is like the time we shouldn't be we're buying. Maybe

486
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 2: we're buying high in this Giants team. But it just

487
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 2: feels like everyone's so in on this Jets team. Right

488
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,200
Speaker 2: they're coming off of bye week after they just beat

489
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 2: the Eagles. I just assumed a lot of the money

490
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:17,479
Speaker 2: would come in, and I'm looking at the money now

491
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:19,159
Speaker 2: and it just seems that way like the tickets and

492
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,640
Speaker 2: the money right now are coming in heavy on them.

493
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 2: So here's another great staff from Evan. Three is a

494
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,120
Speaker 2: key number in these low total games totals below forty.

495
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 2: If you're getting three or higher on the dog. It's

496
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 2: fifty nine ats since twenty eighteen. So it's just a

497
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 2: nice spot, like we're taking an ugly dog in a

498
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 2: game we think should be an ugly battle, like it

499
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 2: could come down to a field. Well, maybe me and

500
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 2: Chad will push this one, but two and a half

501
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 2: three in contest, it's it's kind of hard not to

502
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 2: take that number.

503
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 1: So we're putting together a profile here. And by the way,

504
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 1: we still owe Foxhall, we still owe big Balls. I

505
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: know we're getting to those because there.

506
00:23:58,000 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 2: Is I mean, do you want to make this Foxhel

507
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 2: It's no one's betting it. I got even the pros,

508
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 2: a lot of pros I talk to, like they're not

509
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 2: crazy about this one.

510
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 1: Well, look, we still have to talk about Denver and

511
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: we still have to talk about h Washington. Yeah, and

512
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,919
Speaker 1: so to me, it feels like with both of those

513
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 1: is where we're going to go with the fox Hole

514
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 1: and big balls. Jacksonville Pittsburgh. So I loved it at

515
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 1: two on Sunday night. You said, wait, I got antsy.

516
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 1: I betted it two, got up to three. The wise

517
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,360
Speaker 1: guys hit it. It's settled the two and a half.

518
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: We're going to have four games. I think we feel

519
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 1: really good about and then I think there's going to

520
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 1: be a debate on what the fifth game is. The

521
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 1: Steelers could sneak in there. Yeah, just bet the Steelers

522
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,119
Speaker 1: in these spots. Mike Tomlin fifty seven thirty one and

523
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 1: four in his career against the spread sixty four and

524
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 1: a half percent. It's the most profitable coach in the

525
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 1: NFL the past twenty years, sixteen and nine straight up

526
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,919
Speaker 1: as a home dog, kids want to have a good

527
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 1: and by the way, he's winning against teams that are

528
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 1: incredibly good as a home dog, Like how many of

529
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: those games are against Baltimore, right, and Baltimore is always good.

530
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,879
Speaker 1: Jacksonville is not at that level yet. They should not

531
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: be a favorite on the road given how inconsistent they

532
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 1: have played so far this year.

533
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 2: To get the opponent they name those great faces.

534
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 1: The public is all in on Jacksonville because of how

535
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:30,400
Speaker 1: they've performed the past few weeks, but they've gotten some really,

536
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 1: really good spots the past couple of weeks. It's hard

537
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 1: not to love the Steelers here.

538
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 2: There's only so many times you can keep playing the

539
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 2: same spot, Chad, So I'll do it. I'm with Chad.

540
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 2: Like I took the three, I've taken the two and

541
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 2: a half on Pittsburgh. I mean, we don't have a choice.

542
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 2: I hate it, but Chad's right though, Like I could

543
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 2: I could see this being one of those where, like

544
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 2: you know, we get off the phone call here we

545
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 2: make our five. I could see it being our last

546
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 2: one and it's just a good number, good spot to

547
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 2: play at Pittsburgh. We have no idea how they'll get there,

548
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 2: but they'll get there. Like their advantage right now is

549
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 2: they have really good receivers against the jack secondary that

550
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 2: can be passed on. Like you know there there's questions

551
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 2: still to us about that old line for the Jaguars,

552
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 2: So you know, advantage Pittsburgh like TJ. Watt, the absolute

553
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 2: game wrecker of game wreckers, fully healthy. We know the

554
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 2: stats about him when he's playing with Pittsburgh. Him on

555
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 2: their team and off the field, it's night and day.

556
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 2: Like me and Chad last year, we didn't touch Pittsburgh

557
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 2: a lot for the season just because he wasn't playing,

558
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 2: and that's that was always a big deal to us.

559
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,679
Speaker 2: If TJ is not playing, this defense is different. So

560
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 2: you know he's fully healthy. Steelers are fully healthy. We're

561
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 2: catching a big number the Jaguars. Not that they're looking ahead,

562
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 2: but they could be right. They just got to make

563
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 2: it through this week and they get to their bye week,

564
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 2: and if they win this game, they have a huge

565
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 2: lead in their division. Like they know the cost of

566
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 2: this game, and you know, not that I think they're

567
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 2: going to overlook Pittsburgh, but it feels like a lot

568
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,919
Speaker 2: of teams this year have and that's what Pittsburgh has

569
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,360
Speaker 2: been doing. Like they loy you to sleep. So if

570
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,919
Speaker 2: you like the jack just take them first half, like

571
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 2: it seems like Pittsburgh might be one of the worst

572
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 2: first half teams will see all season. They just don't

573
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 2: play well in the first half, and then second half

574
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 2: they just the magic starts happening. Whatever that magic is,

575
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 2: that Tomlin magic, that's when it starts happening. So well,

576
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 2: you know what it is, guys, Shad right, we'll take

577
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 2: that number.

578
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 1: It's a honestly what it is, and it's part of

579
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: it is the chemistry, right, Mike Tomlin is a guy

580
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 1: that people like to play for and he gets them

581
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 1: ready emotionally but also strategically.

582
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 2: I'm gonna look at you real close today to see

583
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 2: if you highly conditioned and ready to go, you know

584
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:32,639
Speaker 2: what I mean, And if you know, I'm going to

585
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:33,439
Speaker 2: put you in the news.

586
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 1: They wear people down like that defense comes at you

587
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 1: non stop. And TJ Watt how many plays is he

588
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 1: making in the second half? We saw it against the Rams, right,

589
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 1: first play of the game, interception, runs it back to

590
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 1: the three. Then he's in the backfield the entire second

591
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 1: half against a really bad offensive line for the Rams.

592
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 1: Evan has a great stat here as home dogs facing

593
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 1: teams with a sixty plus winning percentage, which is the

594
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 1: Jags are fourteen three and one. It's like, we're gonna

595
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 1: do it. We're gonna step in it. But look, these

596
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 1: are the patterns we play. We talk about big dogs,

597
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 1: we talk about divisional dogs, we talk about the Steelers specifically.

598
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 1: You want to win those two out of three times.

599
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 1: It just so happens we have a confluence of all

600
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 1: those things happening at the same time. We've got the

601
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,360
Speaker 1: big dogs, We've got divisional dogs, We've got the Steelers

602
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 1: as dogs. Like you know the ven diagram of these games,

603
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 1: it's got three of them have to play in our favor, right,

604
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 1: So all of a sudden, it's we're starting to build

605
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 1: a profile here. Let's I was going to talk about

606
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: New Orleans and Indy, and I was going to talk

607
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 1: about Cleveland and Seattle. Those games all seem way too

608
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 1: funky for me, And to be honest, I don't think

609
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 1: we're going to put them in the contest like I think.

610
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 1: I think even if we get to six games, we

611
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 1: like I think those are seven and eight to me, Seattle.

612
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 1: You know with PJ Walker that line's moving into three

613
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 1: and a half. Right now, New Orleans has flipped back

614
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 1: and forth favorite dog, favorite dog, plus one minus one,

615
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: plus one minus one. I don't want to skip it.

616
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: I don't want to speak for you, but to me,

617
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: unless you feel strongly about these games, these are not

618
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 1: contest worthy games to me.

619
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, and from our guy, I Evan PJ Walker six

620
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 2: and two ats, including his one loss last week, covers

621
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 2: by eleven point six points per game. So PJ is

622
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,719
Speaker 2: actually surprisingly been good coming into this role, covering as

623
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 2: a big dog. The Saints. I did love them. I

624
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 2: talked about it. I like that defensive matchup against Minshew.

625
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 2: The numbers flipped, Like when we talked about that, it

626
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 2: was plus one and a half. Now it's minus one. Evan,

627
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:37,479
Speaker 2: Evan sad just rings in the back of my head

628
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 2: anytime that happened.

629
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 1: So forty two eighty one since twenty nineteen, I think

630
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: teams that flip from underdog to favorite are forty two

631
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 1: and eighty one against the spread. So if you liked

632
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 1: New Orleans, hopefully you bet them as dogs. The same

633
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 1: thing happened to them, by the way, against the Jaguars,

634
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 1: they were one and a half point dogs and they

635
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 1: flipped to favorites.

636
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 2: Dame game back. Look, the pros we talked to. The

637
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 2: pros just love the Saints. They have a great defense,

638
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 2: and we're the only ones that like Derek Carr. And

639
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 2: I get it. Like I always say, Chris gave us

640
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 2: a stab at the beginning of the season, there's no

641
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 2: one worse in their red zone than Derek Carr. And

642
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 2: that's how true of this entire season. He get between

643
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 2: the twenties. This dude, it can get you down the field,

644
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 2: get get you in the red zone and dink and

645
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 2: dunk his way down there. But then he gets in

646
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 2: the red zone, he just cannot make the right decision.

647
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 2: And when he does make the right decision, this guy's

648
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 2: dropped the ball. So Derek Carr's got a little stink

649
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 2: on him right now. So I'm happy not to put

650
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 2: this one in as a favorite.

651
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 1: Chet Philadelphia at Washington Foxholer, Big Balls, Big Balls, big balls,

652
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 1: Bet of the week. This is a decent sized dog

653
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 1: at home. It's not the Pros Joe's game. You would

654
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 1: think a lot of the tics that are on the Eagles.

655
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 1: I'm still seeing. You know, there's more than sixty percent

656
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 1: of the tickets around the Eagles, slightly more than fifty

657
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 1: percent of the money on the Eagles, but that could

658
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 1: be a mixture of weird money. We've seen this line

659
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: move from seven to six and a half at touch six,

660
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 1: it's back at six and a half again. Dogs and

661
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: divisional games sixty games above five hundred the past decade,

662
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 1: forty games above five hundred since twenty twenty. We have

663
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: at least two big home dogs to put in the

664
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 1: contest this week in Washington and Denver. What else were

665
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 1: the wise guy saying? This was? This is the first

666
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 1: game you mentioned in the sharp calls.

667
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think a lot of us were just

668
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 2: debating what's going on the Eagles injury report because Jalen

669
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 2: Hurts wasn't on the injury report. A lot of the

670
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 2: guys on their team weren't on injury report. A lot

671
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 2: of guys we think are banged up, like Lane Johnson.

672
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 2: If you go back and watch that film, he didn't

673
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 2: look like himself. Now, he did all right in passing pro,

674
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 2: but in running pro he can knock get out like

675
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 2: he can knot get out and push forward like there's

676
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 2: clearly a big injury to Lane Johnson. You know, there's

677
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 2: running game just as had not been the same since

678
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 2: the early couple of weeks. And I know they've had

679
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 2: some injuries to the O line and that is part

680
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 2: of why the Eagles run game is been the same,

681
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 2: but a lot of it's been putting on Hurts and

682
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 2: Washington's biggest struggle is downfield throws. So the fear here

683
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 2: if you are betting Washington is you need another samhow

684
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 2: like good game like you cant have. Like I think

685
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 2: the first time he played, it was thirty four to

686
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 2: thirty one the Eagles beat Washington. Are we really expecting

687
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 2: this guy to put up thirty one points again? Now?

688
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 2: I do not think he'll be doing that, But we're

689
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,479
Speaker 2: catching them at home in a bilo spot after a

690
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 2: bad loss against the Giants, against an Eagles team that

691
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 2: everyone's back in on, and I I just have too

692
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 2: many questions still about this Eagles team. I have questions

693
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 2: about their red zone offense. I have questions about Hurts

694
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 2: his turnovers. I Mean, I don't know if he's number one,

695
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 2: but he's definitely number two in the league in turnovers.

696
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 2: Right now, Like he's just had some really bad turnovers

697
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 2: and he's talking about trying to correct that, but I

698
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 2: don't know if it's there. And that's because the OC,

699
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 2: I don't think puts him in the best position a

700
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 2: lot of times. I mean there's sometimes this, Yeah, this

701
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 2: OC just makes the most boneheaded. Even to start that

702
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 2: Eagles game against Miami, Eagles drive all the way down

703
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 2: the field and I think first play in the red zone,

704
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 2: so it's whatever was from the eight yard line, it

705
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 2: was an incomplete. The second play from the eight yard line,

706
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 2: he ran up the middle. I think they gained one yard.

707
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 2: The third play was a QB sneak from the seven

708
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 2: yard line. It picked up one yard. Like there's certain

709
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 2: things he does where he thinks he's being really smart

710
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 2: and he's not. He's just being an idiot. And it's

711
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 2: it's it's worrisome when you see how good the Coats

712
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 2: offense is and it's like, you know, Hurts is really talented,

713
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 2: but losing your row c's we always love that's that's

714
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 2: a big deal. Like now's he's got a new a

715
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 2: new guy calling the plays. The offense is gonna be

716
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 2: a little different, and you've noticed that with the Eagles

717
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 2: this year, despite them being you know whatever, they are

718
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 2: the number two or three best offensive football. It's talent.

719
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 2: They have so much talent. It's hard for him not

720
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 2: to be that high. Like Hurts, he almost went MVP

721
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 2: last year, Like the kids got the goods. It's a

722
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 2: lot of it right now is mental. So you know

723
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 2: the fact that every money line, all the teasers, all

724
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 2: the bets are just pounding this Eagle's number and it's

725
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 2: not at seven yet. It's pretty shocking. I thought, me

726
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 2: and Chat'll be able to get seven seven and a half.

727
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 2: In contest, they're holding at six and a half. So

728
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 2: this is one of these we might lock in six

729
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 2: and a half today on Thursday. Well, we could end

730
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 2: up changing that Sunday morning if it moves up to

731
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 2: seven and a half in contest. It's just a big,

732
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 2: big number in a divisional game, and yeah, another game.

733
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 2: You just you gotta play the percentage here. You have

734
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 2: to take this home divisional dog. It's late enough in

735
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 2: this season you can take these here. If it was

736
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 2: Week one or two, maybe I'd be a little more

737
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 2: hesitant now that we're so late in the year. These

738
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 2: are the spots you take these divisional dogs.

739
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 1: Speaking of divisional dogs, Kansas City at Denver, let me

740
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 1: just say right now, we like Green Bay, we like Washington,

741
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 1: we like the Giants, we like Pittsburgh. We got three

742
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 1: dogs right now, four dogs right now. Kansas City at

743
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:03,440
Speaker 1: Denver have the Dolphins and the Eagles coming up. How

744
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: much are they going to show historically terrible at covering

745
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 1: three and a half or more. I've just repeated it again.

746
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 1: Dogs sixty games above five hundred in the division games

747
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 1: against the spread past decade. No, Nick Bolton and I

748
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 1: thought that was a huge, huge difference for them in

749
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 1: the first time. These guys played a few weeks ago

750
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 1: and we had I think the line was eleven ten

751
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 1: and a half. It closed at ten and a half.

752
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: The Chiefs won by eleven. I already feel like this

753
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 1: Denver team is different than that team. Like Javonte Williams

754
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 1: has gotten so much better in the past two weeks.

755
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:48,399
Speaker 1: You can see his explosiveness and the defense. I think

756
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 1: we didn't know if that was the Chiefs offense or

757
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 1: the Broncos defense, but I do think it was a

758
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 1: little bit more of the Broncos defense than we thought

759
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 1: when they held them to points because the Broncos play

760
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 1: very well against the Packers. So I feel good about

761
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 1: taking the Broncos here.

762
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't feel good, but I feel like

763
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 2: it's something we have to do. I'm just I'm scared

764
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 2: of mahomes are a good defense and it is scary

765
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 2: and like I go and watch the film.

766
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:19,439
Speaker 1: Though, and I think that's a big deal. No great

767
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,879
Speaker 1: at a top two three level linebacker this season.

768
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 2: I agree. Chad said it like we have to play

769
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 2: the number here and it stinks. It's come down so much.

770
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 2: I'm hoping we can still get seven and a half

771
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:31,960
Speaker 2: in contests. But it also makes me feel good where

772
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 2: it's like we were ahead of this, we liked it early.

773
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 2: It's come down and you know, obviously I wish I

774
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:38,320
Speaker 2: could have got a lot more down the eight and

775
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 2: eight and a half, but that's how it goes. And

776
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 2: I've been all over the seven and a half and

777
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 2: now it's down to seven. So gotta be a foxhole.

778
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 2: Bet there's only a couple of people in here with us,

779
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 2: you know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

780
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to

781
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 2: a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Mahomes eventure was in

782
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 2: a correct right. Eventually the spread stuff was in a

783
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 2: correct itself and he would get more towards the median.

784
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 2: The defense, that's difference. That's been the difference this year

785
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 2: there in their last six, I think Evantaas are five

786
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,359
Speaker 2: and one ats. Yeah, Mahomes has played well, but if

787
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 2: you go back and look a lot of those numbers

788
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 2: they're covering, it's because of the defense, Like they're turning

789
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 2: sevens into threes. And that's the difference. The first time

790
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,959
Speaker 2: these two teams played, what they kick three freaking freeo goals?

791
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 2: This every team like that was that was just a

792
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:21,720
Speaker 2: death by a thousand cuts the first time they played.

793
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 2: So I got the same expectations here, me and Chad

794
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 2: will take the number. We know we're stepping into here, right,

795
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 2: we're taking a terrible team against Mahomes. But Chad's right,

796
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 2: like these big spreads. I think I said it last

797
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 2: week that the Chiefs play with their food and that's

798
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 2: that's kind of been their mo ever since Mahomes been

799
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 2: their starting quarterback. Because they're so good, they sometimes take

800
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 2: the foot off the gas a little bit, and you

801
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 2: know it hasn't worked this year. Again, they're five and

802
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 2: one the last six, but historically me and Chad have

803
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,400
Speaker 2: been done well in these spots, so can't avoid it.

804
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 2: We'll be on the number. It's just it'll be painful

805
00:37:57,840 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 2: to take six and a half in the contest if

806
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 2: that's what it is. I'd feel a lot better at

807
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 2: seven and a half.

808
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 1: Right now if I had to say our five games

809
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:13,760
Speaker 1: and we got one more game to talk about green Bay, Washington, Denver, Pittsburgh,

810
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 1: New York Giants, the last game I want to talk

811
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 1: about before I talk about the teams that might be

812
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 1: on the outside looking in. Arizona Cardinals eight and a

813
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 1: half points against Baltimore. Really interesting game. I think we

814
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 1: I've bet Arizona plus eight and a half. One of

815
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 1: the things that convinced me to do it, it was in

816
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 1: our conversation on Tuesday thinking about Kyler Murray and the

817
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:42,760
Speaker 1: potential to come back. So he's he is eligible to practice,

818
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 1: will he play? We don't know. But I feel like

819
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 1: the biggest mistake we've made this year is we haven't

820
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 1: been Oh we're now saying that Evan is saying that

821
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 1: Baltimore is up to nine nine and a half at

822
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:59,919
Speaker 1: some places. We've shot away a little bit from play

823
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 1: in the big dogs in these spots at home, and

824
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 1: I think that's been a mistake. I don't think Baltimore.

825
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 1: I don't think Arizona is a team that I want

826
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 1: to play ahead of Washington or Denver. I think both

827
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:13,400
Speaker 1: those teams are probably a little bit better, more confidence

828
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,439
Speaker 1: in them. Bet. Arizona to me is our six team

829
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:16,839
Speaker 1: right now.

830
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 2: I got some of the teams I like more. I'm

831
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: with you that I bet this just because I thought

832
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,799
Speaker 2: Kyler might back you practiced in full yesterday. We'll see

833
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 2: if he does it again today. But yeah, as far

834
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 2: as dogs go, I don't think it's gonna be on

835
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:35,919
Speaker 2: my five biggest bets this weekly. I'm just scared of Lamar.

836
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 2: Lamar is playing at a really high level right now.

837
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 1: Look you did. You did a great breakdown on the

838
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 1: Faves film session yesterday about Lamar and the level that

839
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 1: he's playing at. And to be honest, on the Action

840
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 1: pod with Stucky in Raybond. Raybond loves the Ravens here,

841
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 1: which makes me a little anxious. So I'm fine if

842
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:59,720
Speaker 1: we end up not including this. Who do you like more?

843
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 1: That could be competing for that fifth spot. If not

844
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 1: the Cardinals.

845
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 2: First, let me say, if no one hears from me

846
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,319
Speaker 2: by Sunday, I've been murdered. There's definitely a ghost in

847
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 2: my house. I just had a painting fall off the

848
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 2: wall and then my TV turned on. I am officially

849
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 2: freaked out right now. I don't know. You just said,

850
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 2: would you just ask me what's our fifth I.

851
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 1: Said, if not, what's what's the sixth? Uh?

852
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:28,320
Speaker 2: What is happening right now? That was terrifying?

853
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 1: What is the sixth game? Sneaking in?

854
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 2: I got you?

855
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 1: I just said. I just said I thought there could

856
00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 1: be the Cardinals. You said, you got other ones you

857
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 1: like more.

858
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 2: I'm trying to force at least a road team into

859
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 2: our picks because right now all we have is home dogs.

860
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 2: So I was like, let me find a chalky road

861
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 2: favorite that I love. Texans. I'm just beating the drum

862
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 2: all week, Houston Texans. No team is worse at rushing

863
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 2: the passer than Carolina Panthers. They are the worst than

864
00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 2: football getting pressure on the QB. Guess who is third

865
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 2: in the league passing against no pressure. CJ is incredibly

866
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 2: good against no pressure, and we've seen that if you

867
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 2: turn on the tape in games where he's not getting

868
00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 2: pressure and he can do whatever he wants, he's money,

869
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:15,240
Speaker 2: like he hits guys in stride. He's just on target.

870
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 2: And I love Houston defense matched up against Carolina. So

871
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 2: that's when I like that jumps out and then there's

872
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 2: forty nine is number? The forty nine ers now re

873
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 2: minus three and a half. Yeah, I don't want to

874
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:28,719
Speaker 2: be bad mouth and Purdy, right, but we talk of

875
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 2: the time. A lot of it's based on the system,

876
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 2: and there's a nice system there in place, and there's

877
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 2: a lot of good weapons in place, and you do

878
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 2: need to make the throws. And that's the fear with

879
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold's Can he make the same throws as pretty

880
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:42,240
Speaker 2: because Purdy is really good, like I'm making the throws

881
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:44,919
Speaker 2: like you can go through and watch his tape this year.

882
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 2: I know he has some stinkers that vikings game, but

883
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 2: overall he's really good at putting the ball right where

884
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 2: he needs to be with guys in stride. So this number,

885
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 2: to me has moved too much. If it's three two

886
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 2: and a half in contest, Jad, how do we not

887
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 2: put the forty nine ers in Like that's that's a

888
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 2: good spot to back a team that the public perceives

889
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 2: the Bengals is being fixed. They're not. We talked about

890
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:11,240
Speaker 2: they did nothing, and that second half against the Seahawks

891
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 2: Joe Burrows when one of the one of the worst

892
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 2: qbs on downfield throws this season, right, balls that have

893
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 2: to go plus twenty plus. He's been terrible. And that's

894
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 2: with Chase and t Higgins, two of the best deep

895
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 2: ball receivers in football. So I have a lot of

896
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 2: questions still about the Bengals team and the fact that

897
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 2: everyone's just piling on down all the money's flying in

898
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 2: the Bengals because uh, they perceived Sam Donald's a huge downgrade.

899
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 2: The books disagree. I think the line moved three two

900
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 2: and a half points when it was Sam Donald, which

901
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 2: sounds like a lot. I honestly thought Pritty was worth

902
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 2: more than that, Like in my mind I thought Perty

903
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 2: was worth four or five points. The books are telling

904
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 2: you he's not. Like they clearly they moved the number

905
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 2: to where they think it should be. So this is

906
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 2: when I haven't touched it the forty nine ers. But

907
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 2: if it gets to three two and a half, I

908
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 2: bet it. Like when it's at three a couple books.

909
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 2: I've hit it with this four nine team. I just

910
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 2: think that at that point the numbers move too much.

911
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:08,720
Speaker 2: Where the Bengals they're not a top three, top fourteen,

912
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 2: the AFC like they're still getting treated as such. I

913
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:12,359
Speaker 2: just don't think they are right now.

914
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 1: All right, Well, we will a reminder for everybody. We

915
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:24,239
Speaker 1: enter our initial picks into the contest website on Thursdays

916
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 1: after the show, Simon and Ile chat if you want

917
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 1: to see the unofficial picks we've entered for the contest

918
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 1: before it locks on Sunday, just go to the contest

919
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 1: website favorite dot actionnetwork dot com search for the Phase five.

920
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 1: That's us. We will lock these in shortly after the show,

921
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:46,279
Speaker 1: and then what happens is on Sunday after we do

922
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 1: convince me watch it live on YouTube and in the

923
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:53,439
Speaker 1: Action Network app. After that, Simon and I talk again

924
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 1: and we say, okay, have the lines moved for any

925
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:58,919
Speaker 1: games that we like more that we want to take

926
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:01,839
Speaker 1: out a game and put a game in. So that's

927
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:03,919
Speaker 1: when we make the official lock. But we do put

928
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 1: picks in Thursday. Check it out favorites dot actionnetwork dot com.

929
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 1: Look for the faves five Simon, can you name the

930
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 1: fastest growing ticketing app in the United States?

931
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 2: Game Time?

932
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game

933
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:22,399
Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One they sponsor the show. Number two,

934
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got

935
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including

936
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:31,319
Speaker 1: pro and college football games. That's right. I used it

937
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 1: last weekend to buy tickets to the Ohio State Penn

938
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 1: State game. I'm actually going to open game Time right

939
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,799
Speaker 1: now from my house here in Connecticut, and guess what

940
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 1: we can get into that exciting New York Giants New

941
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 1: York Jets game for less than one hundred and seventy

942
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 1: five bucks. Also lots of hockey going on. You can

943
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 1: see the Islanders, you can see the Devils. Less than

944
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:55,319
Speaker 1: twenty bucks is the get in price. No matter where

945
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:57,880
Speaker 1: you live, download the game Time app. Get out have

946
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 1: some fun this week, Go sweat your bets and in person,

947
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 1: and you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off

948
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:06,720
Speaker 1: your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the app

949
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 1: and enter code favorites for twenty dollars off last minute tickets.

950
00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 1: Lowest price guarantee. All right, before we get into our

951
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:17,799
Speaker 1: money line underdog round robin, remember that the Week eight

952
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:23,280
Speaker 1: contest tiebreaker is total passing yards. On Monday night, Football

953
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:28,760
Speaker 1: Action Network predictive analyst Billy Ward writes a weekly article

954
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 1: about tiebreaker strategy, and a link to that article can

955
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:34,319
Speaker 1: be found in this episode's description. If you want a

956
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 1: leg up in the contest, luck to all of you.

957
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: All right, money line, my dog blocks your dog, Your

958
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:49,239
Speaker 1: dog blocks mo dog. I'm thinking green Bay.

959
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:53,440
Speaker 2: We gotta go Steelers. I mean Tomlin, he's been amazing

960
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 2: to us as a dog on the money line.

961
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:58,720
Speaker 1: To me, it's Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New York Giants.

962
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 2: Go Washington. You just we're hoping here. The egos are

963
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:05,439
Speaker 2: looking ahead. It's Dallas week next week. You assume that's

964
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:07,439
Speaker 2: on the back of their mind. So just a nice

965
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:10,359
Speaker 2: overlook spot. Do I really think Washington's gonna win this game?

966
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 2: Probably not, But me and Chat are trying to get

967
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:14,479
Speaker 2: some big dogs in here, So I like the value

968
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 2: right there on Washington. I mean, we're gonna get our

969
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 2: guy Verbel in there with the backup quarterback. Oh right, yeah,

970
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 2: for sure, you're Raabel in there.

971
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 1: That's five Pittsburgh, Green Bay Giants, Washington, Tennessee.

972
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 2: Good. I was gonna say, if we had too, I

973
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 2: was gonna say, maybe we can put the Bengals in

974
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 2: there in case Sam Darnold sees his own ghost again.

975
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 2: But now I'm happy with that five we.

976
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 1: Have, Simon, Let's make Little Caesars, which is the official

977
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 1: pizza sponsor of the NFL. Part of your game, Tay

978
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 1: Simon this Halloween? Do you think handing out slices of

979
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 1: Little Caesars could soon become more popular than traditional trick

980
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:55,239
Speaker 1: or treating? What an appropriate question to be asking you

981
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 1: right now? I would love that order online during our

982
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 1: pizza pizza that pregame one hour before NFL games and

983
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:05,719
Speaker 1: get ready for some football and fun. Choose your favorite

984
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 1: Little Caesars pizza or pick the toppings you crave. Simon,

985
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:13,040
Speaker 1: what do you think about this new motto I just invented.

986
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 1: If Simon's advice you always trust, then choosing crazy crust

987
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:20,600
Speaker 1: is a must.

988
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 2: You're a lyrical genius I am.

989
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 1: However, you order your pizza, you win. And speaking of winning,

990
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:32,840
Speaker 1: everyone scores with convenient delivery or our in store pizza

991
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 1: SA portal pick up. So grab some friends, grab some friends,

992
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game.

993
00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 2: The Survivorpool pick of the week?

994
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:51,359
Speaker 1: What should our Survivor pick for Week eight? B We

995
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 1: snuck one in last week with Seattle.

996
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 2: That was never in doubt though, Dallas, Dallas. Jesus chat,

997
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 2: what did I just say on Tuesday? We always get

998
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 2: knocked out picking Dallas at home in these spots.

999
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:07,839
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm blinded by love for Dallas.

1000
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:14,319
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, like, I usually really used these

1001
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:16,560
Speaker 2: picks in my big money league, and I think we

1002
00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:19,280
Speaker 2: did use the Bills. I think we've used the Lions.

1003
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:24,799
Speaker 2: Oh shit, ah shit, Chad, I gotta take We gotta

1004
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:28,760
Speaker 2: take the Chargers. When else would we use the Chargers?

1005
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 1: Fuck you?

1006
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 2: I mean we're getting this D two scrub on the

1007
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:35,880
Speaker 2: road after our first win of his career.

1008
00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:42,040
Speaker 1: D two scrub? You mean the winner of the Heisman

1009
00:48:42,120 --> 00:48:45,720
Speaker 1: Trophy for the next level of college football whose dad

1010
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 1: is one of the strongest men in the world. Scrub?

1011
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:54,879
Speaker 2: Come yeah, so right there, people, Chargers. There's a reason

1012
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:57,479
Speaker 2: this number is so big. This is not gonna be fun,

1013
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:00,719
Speaker 2: this is gonna be super stressful. But when else are

1014
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 2: we going to use them. We got it. We got

1015
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:03,719
Speaker 2: to use the chargers here. This is this is a

1016
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:05,160
Speaker 2: huge number, all.

1017
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 1: Right, Simon. I got an email this week, as I

1018
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:10,400
Speaker 1: responded to you when you dm me on Twitter and

1019
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:13,920
Speaker 1: you became a lifelong friend, a loyal listener from Chicago

1020
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 1: asked me to make it more clear when we are

1021
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:19,239
Speaker 1: discussing what your biggest bets of the week are. At

1022
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 1: this point, when Chicago speaks, the world listens, give me

1023
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 1: your biggest bets right now.

1024
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously it's nowhere near what it was last week.

1025
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 2: I got a lot of money on the Ravens and

1026
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:35,359
Speaker 2: the Eagles. Those are just really nice spots. But this

1027
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 2: week I think we nailed it. Like I'm just I'm

1028
00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 2: just in on the divisional dogs like I've been in,

1029
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 2: been in on Denver heavy, been on the Packers heavy,

1030
00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 2: I've been in on Washington heavy. If those go over three,

1031
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take a bath, Like I'll be losing a

1032
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 2: lot of money. So if you're looking for my biggest

1033
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 2: bets right now, it's those guys. I have a pretty

1034
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:00,359
Speaker 2: big position right now in Houston that I'm I'm really

1035
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 2: nervous about. In a pretty big position on the Giants

1036
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 2: as well. By Sunday, I could see myself having a

1037
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,399
Speaker 2: lot more on on this Pittsburgh team. I just I've

1038
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:10,080
Speaker 2: been hoping it gets to three. A lot of books

1039
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 2: are going to pop the three. That's when I'll come

1040
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 2: in on this Pittsburgh team. But I don't have that

1041
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 2: much on them yet at two and a half.

1042
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 1: I hope you make it. I'm a little worried about

1043
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,160
Speaker 1: the horror show that's going on in your apartment right now.

1044
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 1: I've been there, man, one hundred percent been there.

1045
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:25,080
Speaker 2: I definitely texted a girl I'm friends with them, like

1046
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 2: can I crash at your place? I do not feel

1047
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 2: comfortable right now. I'm out.

1048
00:50:28,880 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 1: I've been visited by the spirits and it's not pretty

1049
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:34,600
Speaker 1: all right. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented

1050
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:36,960
Speaker 1: by Bet three six five. Bet three sixty five doesn't

1051
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 1: do ordinary That's why you get more boosts with them

1052
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Speaker 1: than with anyone else. Every day they power up the

1053
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 1: odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance

1054
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 1: to win more. Bet three sixty five boosts specific markets,

1055
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 1: your winnings and even parlays. They don't stop there, keep

1056
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 1: an eye out for their biggest and best odds with

1057
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:59,319
Speaker 1: the incredible super boost. Check out the boosts and see

1058
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 1: why it's ordinary at bet three sixty five. Must be

1059
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:06,600
Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio,

1060
00:51:06,719 --> 00:51:10,320
Speaker 1: or Virginia, or eighteen or older in Kentucky. Gambling problem

1061
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:12,359
Speaker 1: called one eight hundred gambler or one editor that's off

1062
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:16,080
Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Conditions and restrictions apply. As always, we're

1063
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 1: getting the last word with Evan Abrams, our director of research,

1064
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 1: to give us the stats and nuggets we need to

1065
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 1: get smarter. Evan take it.

1066
00:51:27,160 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 2: Away the last word with Evan Abrams.

1067
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:32,920
Speaker 1: We're finished talking.

1068
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:35,440
Speaker 3: I can't wait for this pod on Sunday night. If

1069
00:51:35,520 --> 00:51:38,239
Speaker 3: Levis and picket cash tickets on Sunday, it's going to.

1070
00:51:38,239 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 2: Have and Tom will do it again.

1071
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 3: I don't even know what we're gonna do, but let's

1072
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:44,279
Speaker 3: get into a few things here to get to the end.

1073
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:46,319
Speaker 2: So I want to be clear on one thing.

1074
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:49,839
Speaker 3: The stat that you guys keep using Open Dog's close

1075
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:54,440
Speaker 3: favorites at the current moment, that's Houston, Atlanta, and Jacksonville.

1076
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:57,160
Speaker 3: Obviously a lot can change before Sunday, but those are

1077
00:51:57,200 --> 00:52:00,919
Speaker 3: the three games that fall into that category. Here's number one.

1078
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:04,799
Speaker 3: So this season so far, it's been pretty profitable to

1079
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,120
Speaker 3: fear the line move, so teams to see their line

1080
00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 3: move three points or more, which would be an example

1081
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:13,399
Speaker 3: of minus three to minus six eleven nineteen and one

1082
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 3: against the spread, fifty seventy nine and two against the

1083
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 3: spread since the start of last year, and one oh

1084
00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:22,200
Speaker 3: seven and one forty three since twenty twenty. A lot

1085
00:52:22,239 --> 00:52:24,799
Speaker 3: of teams fall into that right now, But it is

1086
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:27,480
Speaker 3: a fear the line move. It's it's Miami, It's KC,

1087
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 3: It's the Chargers, Texans, Jaguars. There is a lot of

1088
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 3: teams that Lions, Falcons, so a lot of line movement

1089
00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 3: this week, but hasn't turned out well for those teams

1090
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:40,399
Speaker 3: against the closing number. So that's number one. Number two.

1091
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:43,120
Speaker 3: I've been using it and I even gave Simon a

1092
00:52:43,239 --> 00:52:45,359
Speaker 3: version of it earlier in the show. Dogs with low

1093
00:52:45,400 --> 00:52:48,800
Speaker 3: totals have been unreal. So dogs in games of totals

1094
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 3: below forty two are twenty three eight and one this

1095
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 3: season against the spread, one sixty and one oh two

1096
00:52:56,480 --> 00:53:01,840
Speaker 3: sixty one percent since twenty eighteen. This week, Cleveland Giants, Titans.

1097
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 3: Right now, those are the three teams in that spot.

1098
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:07,880
Speaker 3: And then here are just some like individual quarterback stats.

1099
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 3: Matt Mitchell loves these, and one of them I actually

1100
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:12,320
Speaker 3: just looked up because I want to answer a question.

1101
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:15,719
Speaker 3: So Sam Darnold hasn't covered a game as a favorite

1102
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:19,239
Speaker 3: since twenty twenty one against Davis Mills. Now he has

1103
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 3: to do it against Joe Burrows, So good luck with that.

1104
00:53:22,760 --> 00:53:25,520
Speaker 3: Kirk Cousins real fun one. So coming off that big

1105
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:28,720
Speaker 3: win on Monday Night Football, he is twenty nine forty

1106
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:31,399
Speaker 3: two and two against the spread coming off a straight

1107
00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:33,600
Speaker 3: up win in his career. That is tied for the

1108
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:36,440
Speaker 3: worst record in all of football with Jay Cutler over

1109
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:38,759
Speaker 3: the last twenty years. And even just to push it

1110
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:41,320
Speaker 3: a little bit further when he's coming off a loss,

1111
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 3: thirty nine and twenty five against the spread. So it's

1112
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:46,960
Speaker 3: really a roller coaster at Kirk and you can almost

1113
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 3: bet on it. And finally, my last stat, just a

1114
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:53,879
Speaker 3: fun Mahomes one. He has seventeen career losses straight up

1115
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:57,319
Speaker 3: in his entire career, he has seventeen losses. Russ has

1116
00:53:57,320 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 3: sixteen with the Broncos. So if he loses this weekend,

1117
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 3: you would match Mahomes's career losses. Just with Denver, Russ.

1118
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:06,839
Speaker 1: Was on a Hall of Fame path. Evan, I feel

1119
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:08,440
Speaker 1: like you just gave us stats that give us a

1120
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:10,800
Speaker 1: lot to think about and also make me feel nervous

1121
00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:12,880
Speaker 1: because I feel like half the games were on the

1122
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:14,640
Speaker 1: same side of those stats, and half the games were

1123
00:54:14,680 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 1: on the opposite side of those stats, which is the

1124
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:22,200
Speaker 1: danger of using just stats. That's why you gotta, as

1125
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:26,439
Speaker 1: Simon started the show, you got to think holistically about this, right.

1126
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:30,280
Speaker 1: Betting is about understanding what you're seeing on the field.

1127
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:34,120
Speaker 1: It's about doing your research. It's about what makes you

1128
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:38,520
Speaker 1: comfortable to spend when you are making a bet. Bankroll

1129
00:54:38,600 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 1: management hugely important. Don't get over your skis, don't be

1130
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:46,000
Speaker 1: over your tips. And it's thinking, all right, what is

1131
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:48,640
Speaker 1: the scenario, what is the number? What is the book

1132
00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:52,879
Speaker 1: wanting us to do. There's a lot of signals in

1133
00:54:52,920 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 1: the noise. We're trying to help you clean all of

1134
00:54:56,480 --> 00:55:02,760
Speaker 1: those up with these conversations. Reminder Foxholet Denver plus seven,

1135
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:07,000
Speaker 1: Big Balls, Washington plus six and a half. Exec decision

1136
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:11,399
Speaker 1: Dallas minus six and a half. If anyone's asking, By

1137
00:55:11,440 --> 00:55:14,920
Speaker 1: the way, my biggest bet last week was Philadelphia my

1138
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:18,759
Speaker 1: biggest bet this week Dallas Cowboys, Simon says, New York

1139
00:55:18,800 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 1: Giants plus three our round robin, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, New

1140
00:55:24,719 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 1: York Giants, Washington, Tennessee. If we had to make five

1141
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:35,160
Speaker 1: picks right now, they would be Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Washington, Denver,

1142
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:39,279
Speaker 1: New York Giants. I will be honest, I'm skeptical that

1143
00:55:39,360 --> 00:55:41,960
Speaker 1: those will be the final five, just because we don't

1144
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:45,439
Speaker 1: always do home dogs across the board. Before we sign off,

1145
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:48,880
Speaker 1: reminder that Simon and I will be back with our

1146
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:52,360
Speaker 1: Week eight recap episode live on the Action Network YouTube

1147
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:56,560
Speaker 1: page this Sunday. Every Sunday at seven point thirty Download

1148
00:55:56,640 --> 00:56:01,359
Speaker 1: us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts wherever you get your pod rate, review, subscribe,

1149
00:56:01,640 --> 00:56:04,120
Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is

1150
00:56:04,120 --> 00:56:08,719
Speaker 1: a gift until Sunday at seven point thirty Eastern. Love You.

1151
00:56:14,560 --> 00:56:19,120
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1152
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:21,920
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1153
00:56:21,960 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler