1 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: Welken to trillions. I'm Joel Weber and I am Eric 2 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: bel Tunis. Eric. I realized recently that, um, you know, 3 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,799 Speaker 1: I've lost sense of time. No no sense of time anymore. 4 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 1: But we're basically halfway through the year and it's been 5 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:25,759 Speaker 1: a weird year. It felt appropriate that we should do 6 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: a halftime report. Yeah, I mean, so much has happened. 7 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: I I almost feel like time has slowed down, like 8 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: like two or three years has been stuffed into six months. 9 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: Even the sell off people were saying that it was 10 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: like two thousand eight squeezed into six weeks. And I 11 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,199 Speaker 1: think the recovery was, like, you know, the same deal. 12 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 1: Everything just seems to be so condensed, and with the 13 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: lockdown throw on top of that, I think everybody's very disoriented. 14 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 1: But um, certainly this first half was a lot of 15 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 1: et F storylines have have developed a lot to chew on, 16 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: so helpe less make sense of what's been going on. 17 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: We figured we'd lean into Bloomberg Intelligence and your analysts, Eric, 18 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 1: So we've got your team who's basically had some observations 19 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:12,679 Speaker 1: both for the first half and then kind of looking 20 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:14,680 Speaker 1: ahead for the second half. So who's all joining us? 21 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: So we have from London or I think he might 22 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: be in Greece already, but uh, Athanacio, Sarah Fagus otherwise 23 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: known as Tom Um, James Seffert, who is in Summit, 24 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: New Jersey, and Morgan Barner who is in d C 25 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 1: but was just in California. We're all over the place, 26 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: but you know we are constantly in Twitter, d m 27 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:36,960 Speaker 1: s and I v s talking about these issues all 28 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 1: the time. So basically I asked the Meats to bring 29 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 1: the big issue they've thought was the big deal from 30 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: the first half, and also maybe something to watching in 31 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 1: the second half. So um, there's gonna be a lot 32 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: to chew on today just for people listening. You know, 33 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: we have all four of us, and there's some vacations 34 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: and whatnots coming up. So we recorded this right in 35 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: the middle of June, so we're gonna go over some numbers. 36 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: They could be a touch stale, but I think directionally 37 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: think it's going to be exactly the same this time. 38 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 1: On Trillions the E t F halftime Report, Morgan, Tom James, 39 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 1: welcome to Trillions again. Hey guys, good to see you 40 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: guys in this zoom. Uh this is my closet, don't 41 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: you guys think it has a blared witch vibe in there. 42 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 1: I do, because all you see is the late kind 43 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 1: of like kind of up in his face, and he's 44 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: just looks like he is scared and like hiding from 45 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: something Like it's just feel like a horror movie going on. 46 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: If you see me looking into the corner, please please 47 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 1: call for help. Um okay, James, I want to start 48 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 1: with you first half. What do you want to talk about? 49 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,639 Speaker 1: What was your big takeaway? I mean, the big takeaway 50 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:49,919 Speaker 1: is the FED jumping into the e t F market 51 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,079 Speaker 1: and buying ets. So they basically stepped in and said 52 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 1: they were going to be buying fixed income e T 53 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: s UM. We call it kitchen sinc Day in Marche. Basically, 54 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 1: jerol Al just said he was going to be buying 55 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: things left and right. U and E T s were 56 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:07,640 Speaker 1: added to that description. As of June tenth, we know 57 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 1: that they have somewhere around five point three billion in 58 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 1: ETS and we are five point five billion in e 59 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: t F s UM. They're all fixed income, mostly investment grade, 60 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,959 Speaker 1: but there's some high yield ets in there, and we're 61 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 1: also obviously watching to see which ets are specifically buying 62 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: and they're going to re release that report um on 63 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 1: a monthly basis, so we have the most recent data 64 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 1: as of May nine. We won't know exactly when the 65 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 1: June report will come out, but that they tell us 66 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: basically everything you could ever want to know with what 67 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 1: the FED is doing in the e t F market. 68 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: A lot of people when they hear the FITS buying 69 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: e t F they think, oh, are we Japan now? 70 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 1: The Bank of Japan of the e t F sets 71 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: there just for perspective, that five billion would be point 72 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: three percent of all e t f s, but it 73 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 1: is two percent of corporate bondy tfs, and it's about 74 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: ten percent of all the flows into corporate bondyts this year. 75 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: So in that niche, the FED is becoming a bigger player. 76 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: And I think if you looked at the top ten 77 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: holdings of like an l q D or h y G, 78 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:07,839 Speaker 1: the FED would be on the cusp. It might be, 79 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 1: you know, flirting with the top ten holder of these 80 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 1: funds already and there's still you know, some time to go. 81 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: So one of the observation I had about what James 82 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 1: is talking about is the portfolio that the e t 83 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: F s the FED uses was really advanced, in my opinion. Normally, 84 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 1: when an institution like a Yale or a I don't know, 85 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 1: New Jersey pension uses e t F, they use like 86 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 1: one or two liquid ones, you know, for liquidity purposes. 87 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 1: They're afraid to swim away from those big liquid ones. 88 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 1: And the FED had what thirteen to fifteen e t 89 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: F some most people would never heard of, probably half 90 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 1: the list, And I think that really speaks to black 91 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 1: Rock holding their hand. I mean, they are definitely working 92 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 1: with someone who knows e t F and so their 93 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: portfolio to me looks a lot more like an e 94 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: t F strategist than it does like an institution. Yeah, 95 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 1: and the other thing to highlight here is, as I mentioned, 96 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,839 Speaker 1: they're given there being very transparent here, Like we knew 97 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 1: they were going to be so much transparent, but when 98 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:58,119 Speaker 1: they released this report at the end of the month 99 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:02,039 Speaker 1: of May, we're at that. Maybe they were vocal about this, 100 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 1: but I didn't think they were going to be as 101 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: transparent as they are. We can see the trade level data, 102 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 1: what time they bought, these e t F s, who 103 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: bought it, all these different things, so they're telling you 104 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 1: everything that happened, and it's you're looking back and it's 105 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: not live, but you can see exactly what they're doing 106 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: in the marketplace when it's happened, after it's happened. Okay, Eric, 107 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: You've got a couple of topics from first half that 108 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 1: I think we we've talked about a couple of times, 109 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 1: but I just feel like it is the zeitgeist of 110 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 1: the of the year so far. Do you want to 111 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: talk about them? Yeah, I think I'm becoming associated with 112 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: the E t F jets at this point. Um, I've 113 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 1: been obsessed, even addicted, but I admitted, so at least 114 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 1: there's that, um that you have a problem. Yeah, I 115 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: do have a problem. Um, this E t F Jets. 116 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 1: It's just really I don't know if it's lack of sports, 117 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 1: but it's really just captured my attention at big time 118 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 1: because you know, when we look at flows into Vanguard 119 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:56,919 Speaker 1: and black Rock, it's you know, they take the hoover 120 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 1: and money like giant vacuum cleaners. So anytime a small 121 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 1: E t F is able to just sort of go 122 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 1: from obscurity into the big time within a couple of 123 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 1: weeks or months, it's fascinating. It's it's a rare and 124 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 1: in Jets's case. Let me give you the numbers here. Um. 125 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,280 Speaker 1: What stuck out to me was the flow streak. It 126 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 1: took in money seventy straight days before finally seeing an outflow. 127 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 1: Seventy days of straight inflows is absurd, especially for an 128 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: e t F that had thirty million dollars at the 129 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 1: beginning of it. I looked at the longest streaks of 130 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: inflows of all e t f s, and Jets would 131 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,480 Speaker 1: write number three at seventy days to Vanguard B and 132 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 1: d X and v W. Oh, we're number one and 133 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 1: two with eighty five and eighty three days. But the 134 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: whole top ten was Vanguard except for Jets. That is 135 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:45,279 Speaker 1: how unusual it is. UM. I also think it's interesting 136 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: that Jets was so bought up after being so bad. Normally, 137 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:51,960 Speaker 1: when you see retail sort of pile into a theme 138 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 1: et F, it's because it's having its shiny object moment, 139 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: it's having a good performance run. This was the opposite. 140 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 1: This was people buying something beat up. I mean, the 141 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 1: evaluation on the airline stocks was really low. It also 142 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 1: speaks to this whole robin Hood situation that everybody's obsessed 143 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:11,520 Speaker 1: with robin Hood being like the face of the day 144 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: trading retail investor who's board at home with no sports, 145 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: and I think there's a case we made. Although you know, 146 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 1: Morgan ran the numbers and they don't have a lot 147 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: of assets. If you look at Jets, we would estimate 148 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 1: maybe five to seven percent of Jets is robin Hood, 149 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 1: but they represent other people on other platforms, so you 150 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 1: have a bigger robin Hood effect. And that's definitely bigger 151 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: than that seven percent, so they're definitely buying it. You know, 152 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: it's retail because of how small the trades and the 153 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: flows are UM. And then this retail thing is interesting 154 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: because it basically puts all these small investors on the 155 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 1: opposite side of a Buffet trade. You know, Buffet sold 156 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 1: his airline stocks on early May. Since then Jets is 157 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: up up big. As of today, it's about thirty since 158 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 1: he sold UM, but it had a rough week last week, 159 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: so we'll see where this goes. I also think this 160 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 1: brings into the fact that Dave Portnoy from Barstool Sports 161 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 1: has been really into the airlines, and we looked he 162 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: put out this sort of hype video that was to 163 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,480 Speaker 1: an a C d C song. Since that video came 164 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 1: out Jets. His volume quadrupled and hasn't looked back. So 165 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 1: I do think with Robin Hood Dave Portnoy, there's there's Jets, 166 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: sits in the middle of a bunch of major trends 167 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 1: right now. So it's it's bigger than just this little 168 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: engine that could them E t F. It's really to 169 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:33,680 Speaker 1: me a huge story and as well a proxy for 170 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 1: how fast the economy opens up. A lot of these 171 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: smaller traders are betting against the expert class and saying no, 172 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: people are going to start flying and moving around faster 173 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:44,679 Speaker 1: than you're telling us. And so again there's so much 174 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:49,559 Speaker 1: at stake here and it's just totterally fascinating. Okay, Morgan, 175 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 1: you're next on my list. First half big story, what 176 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 1: was yours? Yeah, not to be confused with jets, but 177 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,079 Speaker 1: we cover the launch of a new E t F 178 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 1: bets b e t Z, which is a round hill 179 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 1: sports betting and I gaming e t F. This actually 180 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:07,439 Speaker 1: was a launch that we predicted on trillions back in 181 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 1: I think last not we congratulations. I was hoping that 182 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: we would see a sports betting et F, in part 183 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: because a lot of these companies haven't been public. We 184 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: just saw DraftKings enter the public markets, Flutter Entertainment owned 185 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: fan duels. So there's now finally enough sort of global 186 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: exposure in the public market public markets to see and 187 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,959 Speaker 1: benefit from UM the legalization of sports betting in the US. 188 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 1: A lot of this is going to be mobile driven, 189 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 1: tech forward. But launched the et F was really historic 190 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: in and of itself, just given the volume that it 191 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:47,800 Speaker 1: traded in the first couple of days after launching, I mean, 192 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: it was pre remarkable. Seventeen million trading, seventeen million the 193 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 1: first day, I think, fifty million second day. I mean, 194 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 1: just kind of a huge launch. And you know, hearkening 195 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: to what Eric just said, a lot of that breadth 196 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 1: in traded volume think came from, you know, the fact 197 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 1: that the fund you know, in in around a week 198 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 1: of training, has over eighteen thousand holders on robin hood, 199 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 1: which is just pretty remarkable but not shocking when you 200 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,439 Speaker 1: look at UM. The highest held names in robin hood 201 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 1: include you know, some of bets is top holdings like 202 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 1: DraftKings and pen So this is already an audience on 203 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: robin Hood that is interested and familiar with UH sports 204 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: betting companies and names. They may even some some may 205 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 1: even say they're betting on stocks as well. So this 206 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 1: is a really good audience for the for the e 207 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 1: t F BETS and the way the ETF is designed, 208 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:39,199 Speaker 1: I mean we're seeing give you know, it's harder to 209 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 1: bet on individual names. The way the e t F 210 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 1: is set up, it's sort of dynamically rebounces, got more 211 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 1: global names that some US investors may not be familiar with. 212 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 1: So the fact the fact that the e t F 213 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: has already taken in seventy million also connects with just 214 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: the up tips we've seen in thematic fund flows, i 215 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 1: mean eight percent over last year. So thematic products overall 216 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 1: our seeing traction and BETS echoes back and to bring 217 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 1: this to a bigger perspective here also the distribution. You know, 218 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 1: if you're going to launch an e t F right now, 219 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 1: you kind of have to peel to this. Like older 220 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 1: advisor with who has a lot of rich clients, you know, 221 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:18,079 Speaker 1: they're not going to buy an e t F on 222 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: day one. They tend to stay away from theme ETFs 223 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: for the most part. They don't like new ones with 224 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:27,320 Speaker 1: low volume. It's interesting how BETS was able to bypass 225 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 1: that advisor and go right to the do it yourself 226 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:34,439 Speaker 1: smaller retail investor, and that might be a growing channel 227 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: of for issuers to just go right there. Um. We also, 228 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 1: I Morgan sent me on a TikTok rabbit hole and 229 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,679 Speaker 1: I looked up E t F and bets. Even though 230 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 1: it just came out, there was two TikTok videos from 231 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: people on there. So I think it's also this interesting 232 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: look at younger investors who's seemingly doing their own research 233 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:57,679 Speaker 1: and you know, are willing to buy an e t 234 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 1: F that's new and from an unknown, relatively unknown issue 235 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: where it's interesting. Well, that speaks to the moment just 236 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 1: going direct to consumer during the middle of the pandemic. 237 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 1: I mean, that's sort of cut out, cut out all 238 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 1: the middleman, and just go straight to your people. I 239 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: also think there's a bigger story of play here as well, 240 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:13,559 Speaker 1: because I have a lot of friends I'm in my 241 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 1: late twenties who like to bet on sports and stuff 242 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:16,719 Speaker 1: like that, and they have a lot of them have 243 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 1: picked up trading on robin Hood. As we kind of 244 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: talked about, there's a lot of people in robin Hood 245 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 1: and I've had friends who've never talked to about investing 246 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: who reached out to me about this specific e t 247 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:29,119 Speaker 1: F or gaming e t F video gaming ets specifically 248 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 1: and things like that. So there's definitely a lot of 249 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 1: interest coming from as you mentioned, possibly the Barstool Sports 250 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: founder Portnoy, a few different things, um, where people are 251 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 1: very interested in this specific et F and getting more 252 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:43,679 Speaker 1: into trading. Sarah Fagus, You're in You're in London still, 253 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 1: although it looks like Greece. Tell us about your big 254 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 1: story from the first half. Yeah, sure, um, And if 255 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 1: I could just add something really quick from the European 256 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 1: perspective on the thematic stuff, I promise I won't say 257 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 1: you SIT's, but um, if the thematic stuff is really 258 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: interesting in Europe because it's attracting a lot of retail 259 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:04,679 Speaker 1: investors too. It's very much an institutional market here and 260 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 1: actually you're seeing a lot of buying on some of 261 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 1: these thematic ets, so you're actually seeing a new sort 262 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 1: of class of investors coming into the market through thematics. 263 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:15,439 Speaker 1: But that's not what I wanted to talk about, and 264 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 1: what I want to look at is active, non transparent ets. 265 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 1: And normally this probably would have been like one of 266 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: the biggest stories of the year, like leading up in 267 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 1: the beginning of the year, but just given what happened 268 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,320 Speaker 1: in the market, this sort of kind of got put 269 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 1: to the to the back burner. But there was a 270 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 1: couple of ets that launched UH right after the sell 271 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,319 Speaker 1: off in March, and now we're that was by American Century. 272 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,319 Speaker 1: Now we're seeing more firm sort of joined in fidelity, 273 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,719 Speaker 1: like Mason Um. And so I think there's two things 274 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 1: that's interesting about this is one of the timing of 275 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,080 Speaker 1: it UM. They sort of avoided some of the big 276 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 1: down draft in March, so their performance out of the 277 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 1: gate is really good. The the American Century Growth Fund 278 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: is already up thirty percent UM since it launched, so 279 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,320 Speaker 1: it's really imperative for them to have good performance out 280 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 1: of the gate. UH. And because I think there's gonna 281 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 1: be a lot of scrutiny on these products. They really 282 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:05,960 Speaker 1: have to show that, Okay, you went through all this 283 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 1: effort to hide your holdings and do all this. Now 284 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 1: you actually have to show that there's value to the structure, right. 285 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 1: So I think there's gonna be a lot of pressure 286 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 1: on these products to perform really well, and they're off 287 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:18,840 Speaker 1: actually to a pretty good start. But I actually think 288 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 1: what's happening. So not only against the going up against 289 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: regular ETFs, they're going against active ETFs that are fully transparent, 290 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: like cathy Woods funds right here, and they're actually doing 291 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: really well. Little Kathy at one point had the best 292 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 1: performing ETF out there. And so now I actually think 293 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: that presents a problem for these active, non transparent funds 294 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 1: because they're you're looking at a fully transparent ETF out 295 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 1: there that's doing really well. It's almost like, well, why 296 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 1: do I need to hide my holdings. You're having one 297 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 1: that's that's doing really well. So I think that if 298 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: Cathy's funds continue to do really well, so I think 299 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 1: it's gonna provide it's gonna be a headwind for some 300 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 1: of these funds. But um, I think we're going to 301 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 1: see more and more now with the market sort of 302 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 1: stable coming into the market. So it's definitely gonna be 303 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 1: something that we've watch and I'll continue to watch. And 304 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: you know, I think they're stuck in the dead zone. 305 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 1: I think you've seen them come out between forty five 306 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 1: and sixty five basis points as a fee, and I 307 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 1: don't doesn't look like any of them are taking big swings. 308 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 1: So unless you're dirt cheap or going to create a 309 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:18,840 Speaker 1: shiny object moment by being like a Cathy would I 310 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 1: just don't know. Uh, it's it's it's gonna be a 311 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 1: tough road in my opinion. Although it looked like American 312 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 1: Century put its own money in there. They have like 313 00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: two million now in those So if they're able to 314 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 1: move money from the mutual funds over, uh, they could 315 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 1: save assets potentially for themselves. But I don't know about grassroots. Yeah, 316 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 1: I agree, Um, I think I'd probably take the under 317 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: on it. It It is actually seeing like real demand from 318 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 1: clients outside of just money being moved from from the 319 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 1: firms themselves in it. So Tom, when you think about 320 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: this topic, what do you what are you most looking 321 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 1: for in the second half. Um, for this, it's gonna 322 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 1: be they have to really prove their value prop Like 323 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 1: Eric said, they're more expense if they're going through all 324 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 1: this to hide their holdings. Um, they really have to. 325 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 1: I mean it's gonna it's gonna they're gonna really have 326 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 1: to show that we are by doing this where we're 327 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 1: adding more value than even the e T s that 328 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 1: are out on the market. Because I think there there's 329 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: just a lot of hurdles that need to get off 330 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 1: of them, and I'd be interesting to see who else 331 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 1: comes into the market. So you have American Century, They're 332 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: obviously a big name. Fidelity is a huge name. Um, 333 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 1: so I'd be willing to see who else gets gets 334 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 1: brought into the market here. And I think they're gonna 335 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 1: be looking obviously what these first entrants are doing. I 336 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 1: sort of engauge if some of these other bigger firms 337 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 1: are gonna you know, some a lot have been filed. 338 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 1: But I think also market timing plays a role here too. 339 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 1: There was like three e t F launched in March, 340 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: then in April all these new ETF started launching, including 341 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 1: these active ones. So um, it's also probably interesting like 342 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: a sentiment gauge too to see, Hey, do they maybe 343 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 1: think that the market has stabilized here and that's why 344 00:16:53,040 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 1: they're they're starting to roll out some of these products. Okay, 345 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:06,440 Speaker 1: let's use this opportunity to transition into a second half preview. So, uh, 346 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 1: we're in the locker room. John plays Uh, James, I'm 347 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,879 Speaker 1: gonna start with you. What what's the second half look like? Yeah, 348 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 1: so this is something that I've been tracking for the 349 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 1: past couple of months. We obviously are constantly tracking where 350 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,200 Speaker 1: money is going in in the asset management industry, mutual 351 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 1: funds ets, and the big thing that jumps off the 352 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 1: screen is the money that went into money market funds 353 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 1: in the first half UM. So basically everyone likes to 354 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:30,920 Speaker 1: say cash on the sideline, I would I would argue 355 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 1: the term is overused, but right now there's more cash 356 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 1: on the sideline than UM. They're virtually ever has been 357 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:38,880 Speaker 1: in the well, not ever has been but since two 358 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 1: thousand eight by different measures. So you look at this, 359 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 1: we see we saw seven hundred seventeen billion when it'so 360 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: money market funds in March. Four hundred and ten billion 361 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,199 Speaker 1: went into money markets in April. It's slowed down, but 362 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 1: there was still inflows in May at forty two billion UM. 363 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:53,880 Speaker 1: And what this comes up to is there's over five 364 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: there's five trillion dollars in money market securities, which to 365 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: be what money market securities are there basically cash, commercial 366 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,919 Speaker 1: paper repurchase agreements, these short term overnight type vehicles, very 367 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,719 Speaker 1: short term vehicles. And if you look at it as 368 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 1: a percentage of the SMP five market cap right now, 369 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 1: it's at about it was at the end of April. 370 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,159 Speaker 1: It's now around nineteen because the equity market has come 371 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: back a little bit, but that's the highest level we've 372 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 1: seen since. And then if you look at as a 373 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 1: percentage of mutual fund assets, it's at the highest level 374 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:27,400 Speaker 1: since two thousand eleven, so it was up at last 375 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 1: we checked UM. So there's basically a lot of cash 376 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: on the sidelines. Now I should also caveat this with 377 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:35,880 Speaker 1: what happened in March. The part of the reason why 378 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: there were such big inflows as all these corporations have 379 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 1: these bank loans revolvers are kind of like credit cards 380 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,440 Speaker 1: essentially for corporations with the bank, and they drew down 381 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 1: that money and so they took in billions of dollars 382 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 1: and rather than sit on cash, they put it into 383 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: these money market funds. So that's big chunk of where 384 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: this money is coming from. But still that's still money 385 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 1: on the sidelines UM, and there there's money to be deployed. 386 00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 1: Also on e t F s alone, we there's a 387 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: lot of UM. There's a few et F that's focused 388 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,239 Speaker 1: on treasuries, so one to three month treasuries less than 389 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 1: one year treasuries that are basically similar to money market 390 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 1: funds in a in a sense or the way they're 391 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:10,920 Speaker 1: being used. They've also seen significant inflows. So there has 392 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: been a lot of money on the sidelines. And if 393 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 1: you look at fixed income and equity flows, equity flows 394 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:19,640 Speaker 1: have been muted. I mean, the equity market is obviously 395 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 1: up in April and May, and we haven't really seen 396 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 1: anything significant on the equity side of e t F flows. 397 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,919 Speaker 1: The only area that's been significant has been sector bets. 398 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 1: There's definitely a lot of money flowing into specific sector 399 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 1: e t s, as Tom wrote about last month on 400 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: a research side. But fixed income has taken in a 401 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:39,160 Speaker 1: lot of money. But again, equity has just been kind 402 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 1: of muted. It's been not there's nothing really happening on 403 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 1: that side. And let me just this is an important 404 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,439 Speaker 1: issue because no flows into equity e t f s 405 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: is unusual for a rally. And there's a couple of theories. 406 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:58,360 Speaker 1: There's portfolio rebalancing, there's taxation, there's maybe other opportunities, but 407 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 1: I gotta I mean, Tom's been covering this the most. 408 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 1: I do found myself a little dumbfounded that there hasn't 409 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,879 Speaker 1: been at least a healthy amount of flows given the rally, 410 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,240 Speaker 1: it's up what markets up since the low in March. Right, 411 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,159 Speaker 1: it's definitely little odd, Like James said, a lot of it, 412 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 1: some of it's just shifting, but still like you're just 413 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 1: going from a broad sector to like a specific sector 414 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 1: et F or from like SMP to like attack. But 415 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 1: net net, there's no new flows. I think that's really interesting, right, 416 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 1: there's not actually new money coming into the market, so um, 417 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: you know, I think that the it's very odd to 418 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: see the market rally so much not have flows sort 419 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:37,440 Speaker 1: of follow up behind it. Yeah, and there was there 420 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 1: was nine billion that went out of equity e t 421 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:41,439 Speaker 1: s in May, so the market was going up and 422 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,439 Speaker 1: we saw outflows. And we have this one chart that 423 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 1: we like to show every year. Flows tend to pick 424 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,119 Speaker 1: up when the equity market does well, so for to 425 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:51,680 Speaker 1: have a breakdown in that relationship is pretty significant. These 426 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:53,399 Speaker 1: e t f s like Voo, which tend to have 427 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 1: dri drip retail money coming in, I think they're more 428 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 1: in models, and I think the models all had signal 429 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 1: shifting to pick didn't come when the FED was going 430 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: to start buying those bondy tfs. So I think that's 431 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,159 Speaker 1: when you saw, uh, some of that too. So I 432 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 1: think sometimes these e t f s that were tended 433 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:10,919 Speaker 1: to be always like just used directly by advisors are 434 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 1: getting more and more in these models, which we discussed 435 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 1: by the way in the last episode with Tim Clift 436 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 1: of Investnet. If you're interested, okay, Eric, your second half preview. Yeah, 437 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: it's on E s G. Which when we did the 438 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 1: Hester Purse interview with the SEC, you called me an 439 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 1: E s G hater and then Magnus cut out my 440 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: response which didn't make it on the final cut, which was, 441 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,880 Speaker 1: I'm not a hater per se. I'm just a I'm 442 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,440 Speaker 1: a realist, Like I'm not anti E s G. I'm 443 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 1: just anti nasty surprise, and I'm also anti hype and 444 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 1: bias and there's a lot going a lot of that 445 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 1: all in this E s G soup. So I'm always 446 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:49,120 Speaker 1: watching E s G. Look when I talk about the bias, 447 00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,159 Speaker 1: when you look at the the articles on E s 448 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,440 Speaker 1: G recently, all of them will say record flows into 449 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,359 Speaker 1: E s G. And it's true. E s G've taken 450 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,880 Speaker 1: in thirteen billion this year and they took an eight 451 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,440 Speaker 1: billion last year. Both of those are records, right, So 452 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 1: it's a ton of money for a category that didn't 453 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,680 Speaker 1: have much going on before last year. And I think 454 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 1: most people know this, but they just don't say it. 455 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 1: Most of that money, the majority, like in the case 456 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,439 Speaker 1: of this year, about ten billion of it isn't is 457 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 1: because of two investors, one big institution in Europe as 458 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 1: well as black Rock. Black Rock has moved after Larry 459 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,680 Speaker 1: Fink had that big announcement earlier in the year, they 460 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: moved E S G U and a couple others into 461 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 1: their models that advisors use and that is responsible for 462 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,639 Speaker 1: most of them. So yes, that money still counts. And 463 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 1: believe me, in the Terror Dome, I give credit where 464 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,679 Speaker 1: it's due. It does count. I just think people are 465 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:48,200 Speaker 1: presenting this as millennials have E S G fever. That's 466 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,360 Speaker 1: you know, that's what they want. I just don't think 467 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,639 Speaker 1: that's true because the grassroot flows just aren't there. Like 468 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 1: if you take the Vanguard E t F E S 469 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 1: g V, it's taken in seven million this year, or 470 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: how about Spy the SMP fossil fuel Free E t 471 00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 1: F that's a hundred million. That's more where the market is. 472 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,639 Speaker 1: And I think it's just underwhelming again. And I also 473 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 1: think this Robin hood situation has shown us that, if anything, 474 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 1: millennials and gen z are much more into trading than 475 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: they are into E s G, and I think people 476 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 1: might have under estimated how much millennials want to change 477 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 1: the world with their investments. Further, E s G U, 478 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: which is the one that black Rock put in the model, 479 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 1: to me, this is probably the biggest of the biggest 480 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: hope for E s G because remember what g SLC 481 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 1: the Goldman Sachs Multi Factory t F did to Smart Beta. 482 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,120 Speaker 1: It moves a lot like the SMP and it only 483 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,480 Speaker 1: charges nine basis points, so an advisor has a story, 484 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 1: but they don't have any tracking error to worry about. 485 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:49,119 Speaker 1: E s g U is kind of that for E 486 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,639 Speaker 1: s G charges fifteen basis points and it tracks pretty 487 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,439 Speaker 1: closely to the market. It's virtually going to give you 488 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,640 Speaker 1: similar returns. But here's the thing, you're not going to really, 489 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:00,680 Speaker 1: I mean, how much change are you really an infect here? 490 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,720 Speaker 1: Because E s GU holds x On and Chevron, you 491 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,480 Speaker 1: have smaller waitings, but they still own them. Most people 492 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 1: who want E s G to me are looking to 493 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 1: not hold those companies. So I think this is part 494 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 1: of the issue with E S G. Why are you 495 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: investing in it? Are you going to be happy if 496 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,280 Speaker 1: it doesn't you know, match the market's performance? But to me, 497 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 1: E s G U which is you know the one 498 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 1: that to me is uh, you could replace your S 499 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,400 Speaker 1: and P five hundred exposure with this or your equity 500 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,720 Speaker 1: and you wouldn't be that much different than the market. 501 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:33,879 Speaker 1: So I think for advisors that's a big deal because 502 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:35,879 Speaker 1: they don't really want to have to explain to their 503 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,160 Speaker 1: clients why they've underperformed. Plus they also want everything cheap, 504 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 1: and this one's fifteen BIPs, so there's a there's some 505 00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: bright spots here, don't get me wrong. I just think 506 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 1: relative to the media hype, if you look at a 507 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 1: chart of E s G mentions, it just keeps going 508 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:49,879 Speaker 1: up and up and up and up. The media really 509 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:53,040 Speaker 1: wants this to be a thing, and I just you know, 510 00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 1: what's that quote in mean girls like you're trying to 511 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,679 Speaker 1: make fetch happen and it just won't. I think that 512 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 1: what he's talked about E S to you. There's also 513 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 1: SMPE in the US, in on the US exchanges, which 514 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,920 Speaker 1: is basically smp F s G index, And what these 515 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,240 Speaker 1: indexes do that there's there's two ways to look at this. 516 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 1: You can either be inclusionary or exclusionary as far as 517 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 1: are not concerned, and there's like a scale, so if 518 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,119 Speaker 1: you're exclusionary, you're excluding the worst actors. If you're inclusion 519 00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,880 Speaker 1: or you're going after the companies that are meeting these 520 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 1: the specific criteria, they're doing everything they can. But the 521 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 1: problem in some of this is like there's some of 522 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 1: these companies are so big, they're bound to have issues. 523 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:30,760 Speaker 1: So the bet the way that some of these other 524 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,120 Speaker 1: ones are doing an exclusionary factor where they're just excluding 525 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 1: i don't know, controversial weapons, tobacco, and a few other things. 526 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: But then the rest of it is they're trying to 527 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 1: give you the same risk return characteristics as the market, 528 00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 1: but just taking out the things that are the least 529 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,640 Speaker 1: E s G the things that are performing the worst 530 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 1: by sector. So you're gonna get some oil exposure and 531 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:49,639 Speaker 1: just get rid of the companies that are the worst 532 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:51,560 Speaker 1: on the E s G scale things like that, and 533 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 1: that gives you a similar risk return profile. And you 534 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,520 Speaker 1: could argue that it's it's basically a risk metric. You're 535 00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 1: taking out the risk from environmental issues or social issues 536 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,680 Speaker 1: of governance issue, try to limit them as much as possible, 537 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,760 Speaker 1: And these funds are outperforming the SMP five since their 538 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,919 Speaker 1: launched in many cases. So it's it's showing that it's working, 539 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:09,440 Speaker 1: and it's I think that's where there's gonna be a 540 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 1: lot more interest. We've seen, as Eric mentioned with g 541 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:16,399 Speaker 1: SLC in the smart beta world, the real water down factors, 542 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:17,679 Speaker 1: the one to give you a lot of beta but 543 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:18,960 Speaker 1: give you a little bit of the factor the ones 544 00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,320 Speaker 1: that advisors like the most. So I think these are 545 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 1: the most of the I'm the most bullish on this 546 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:28,000 Speaker 1: aspect of the category for gaining significant assets. That said, 547 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,680 Speaker 1: isn't like when you think about advisers doing that, that's 548 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 1: very different than I want to change the world. I mean, 549 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,119 Speaker 1: how many people who go into E s G thinking 550 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,680 Speaker 1: I'm gonna clean up my portfolio. Then you're like, oh, 551 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 1: this fun holds xon. By the way, this is where 552 00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,399 Speaker 1: I completely agree with you. I don't think like E 553 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:45,480 Speaker 1: s G investing is the way to change the world. 554 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 1: I think that you can benefit from the things that 555 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 1: are going to happen with governments and regulations and all 556 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 1: these different things by avoiding the worst actors. But I 557 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 1: don't think just investing in a company is going to 558 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 1: make them more E S G friendly, Like theoretically it 559 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,880 Speaker 1: could happen. Um. I mean, I would argue that you're 560 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 1: probably better off getting a bunch of money investing in 561 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:05,639 Speaker 1: the worst actors and trying to invoke change and we 562 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 1: of proxy votes potentially, there's all the different ways to 563 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,880 Speaker 1: do this. I just think the most viable asset gathering wise, 564 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,400 Speaker 1: productive wise for a portfolio is the exclusionary route, where 565 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 1: you're getting a similar return characteristic of the market. Alright, 566 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:23,720 Speaker 1: second half is upon us, what's your pick to watch? 567 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,160 Speaker 1: I'm watching small caps. I think we're going to see 568 00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 1: whether sort of a rotation equity leadership actually happens and 569 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 1: holes and I want to see whether you know, et 570 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,880 Speaker 1: F investors are ahead of of a rotation and sort 571 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,840 Speaker 1: of believe that that small cap recovery could be part 572 00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 1: of another leg in a rally here and I think 573 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,400 Speaker 1: you know, we've seen head funds and other bigger speculators 574 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:49,960 Speaker 1: roll back short positions starting in dint. This tend to 575 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,479 Speaker 1: be a bit leaving um and so now Russell two 576 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 1: thousand futures are sort of net long um. We've seen 577 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,200 Speaker 1: I mean you know, high yields spreads are still relatively high, 578 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 1: which is when small caps tend to do better. Um. 579 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 1: And so just looking at the size factor within the 580 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 1: Russell one thousand, we've seen our strategies team sort of 581 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:12,119 Speaker 1: site mid single digit gains attributable to the factor in 582 00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 1: the past couple of months. UM, I think that might 583 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:18,200 Speaker 1: be encouraging some some flows. And then you know they've 584 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,320 Speaker 1: also are you know, our our strategy counterparts have pointed out, 585 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,040 Speaker 1: you know, the way that small cap is continuing to 586 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,240 Speaker 1: trade at fundamental discounts, and and you know, I think 587 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:31,919 Speaker 1: the next most optimistic investors are looking at small caps. 588 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 1: So you know, I w M has actually seen, um, 589 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,680 Speaker 1: you know, it's a sort of representative ETF tracking the 590 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,000 Speaker 1: Russell two thousand, it's actually seem pretty sizeable outflows. And 591 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,560 Speaker 1: that may be because of how heavily it's used tactically, 592 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,240 Speaker 1: but it's gotten. You know, small caps in general have 593 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:51,120 Speaker 1: seen offsetting inflows UM to the category, and some of 594 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,640 Speaker 1: those leaders are VB and SPSN, So it's just other 595 00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 1: small cap ets are kind of leading this. But Tom 596 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:02,840 Speaker 1: wrote recently about that this beta small cap segment has 597 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,560 Speaker 1: taken in really pretty strong flows in June. I think 598 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 1: it's one point six billion as as of today, and 599 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:13,240 Speaker 1: invest goes equal weight RSP find this kind of leading 600 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 1: that category. So we're watching that for the rest of 601 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 1: the year. And just one thing on the small caps 602 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 1: versus large caps. The large caps are dominated by these 603 00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,440 Speaker 1: giant companies. If they ever try to break up some 604 00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 1: of these companies, or there's just a shift in the 605 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,720 Speaker 1: way people shop. I mean you could see small caps. 606 00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 1: I mean they've just been down and out for ten years, 607 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 1: and you know, nothing stays down and out forever. UM. 608 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 1: Maybe small cap value, which by the way, a lot 609 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 1: of people are asking, is there a bankruptcy et F 610 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 1: because of hurts and stuff? And I think small cap 611 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 1: value is as close as you can get or micro caps, 612 00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: but I j R. I think is the small cap 613 00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 1: value in case anybody is interested in that. I mean, 614 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 1: it's put that up against SMP five hundred. It is 615 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:56,080 Speaker 1: just like it is brutal. What what's the ticker for 616 00:29:56,160 --> 00:30:01,080 Speaker 1: a bankruptcy e t F bust if they had one? Yeah, 617 00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:04,960 Speaker 1: I think Tom, bring us home? What's your second half? Pick? 618 00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,360 Speaker 1: What I'm watching? And because we're going into the summer now, um, 619 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 1: normally the summer. It's not a secret, it's it's markets 620 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 1: really quiet. Et F trading is really quiet during the 621 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:16,640 Speaker 1: summer months and the third quarter it's usually like just 622 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,440 Speaker 1: the lowest quarter for trading. But I think this year 623 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 1: is going to be very different. You have everyone continue 624 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:24,600 Speaker 1: to work from home through the summer. You probably have 625 00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 1: a lot of vacations that either got cut short or 626 00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 1: they're just doing you know, staycations. Now you have the 627 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,720 Speaker 1: first full summer where like every platform is commissioned free 628 00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 1: et F Trading, Robin Hood, Schwab, all of those. I 629 00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,520 Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a really busy summer for 630 00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,080 Speaker 1: et F trading. UM some of the stuff that Morgan 631 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 1: mentioned with the interest in thematics, I think we're I 632 00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:46,520 Speaker 1: think the third quarter, in the summer months are going 633 00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 1: to punch away above their weight this year, just because 634 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:52,440 Speaker 1: of the environment that we're currently in with just more 635 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 1: people working from home and just more attached to their screens. 636 00:30:55,280 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 1: This year, what happens if there's a big second wave, uh, 637 00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,360 Speaker 1: then I we'll definitely see I mean, I think we'll 638 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 1: see just a lot of market altility, but I think 639 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,400 Speaker 1: we're definitely going to see more uh E t F 640 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,520 Speaker 1: trading in the fourth quarter is normally really busy anyways, 641 00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 1: but I think this second half of the year is 642 00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,280 Speaker 1: going to be really is gonna put up some pretty 643 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,880 Speaker 1: big numbers for E t F trading. All right, Tom, 644 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 1: James Morgan, thanks so much for joining us on Trillions. 645 00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 1: Thanks for having us say thanks a lot, Thanks for 646 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,640 Speaker 1: listening to Trillions until next time. You can find us 647 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcast, Spotify, 648 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,120 Speaker 1: and wheber else you'd like to listen. We'd love to 649 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:40,480 Speaker 1: hear from you. We're on Twitter, I'm at Joel Webber Show. 650 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:44,080 Speaker 1: He's at Eric fall Tunas. You can find Morgan at 651 00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 1: M Barnes six, James at j S E y f F, 652 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 1: and Tom Sara Vegas at TA Sarah Vegas Good Luck 653 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:57,120 Speaker 1: Spelling that. This episode of Trillions was produced by Magnus Hendrickson. 654 00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:01,440 Speaker 1: Francesca Leady is the head of Bloomberg Podcast by O