Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I'm akshatarati. This week climate elections two
Speaker 1: point zero. Australia, the land of flood whites, beautiful corals
Speaker 1: and ridiculously poisonous animals, just had an election, and like
Speaker 1: Canada's election last week, it produced a surprise result. Ladies,
Speaker 1: crime pals got the nine my majority, Live, government, promise
Speaker 1: and deliberate. Since Trump returned to the White House, the
Speaker 1: Australian electorate has swung away from the center right Liberal
Speaker 1: Party and toward the incumbent centre left Labor Party. The
Speaker 1: swing has been large enough that Labor, led by Prime
Speaker 1: Minister Anthony Albanesi, now has a large majority in the
Speaker 1: Lower House. Just a few months ago, Labor was projected
Speaker 1: to lose seats. And it's worth understanding what happened in
Speaker 1: the Australian election because what happens in Australia matters to
Speaker 1: the world. Australia is the world's largest exporter of coal
Speaker 1: and one of the largest exporters of gas, but it
Speaker 1: also has abundant sun and wind, and so it is
Speaker 1: a prime location to build renewables. It is also the
Speaker 1: world's largest producer of iron and aluminum ores, as well
Speaker 1: as the biggest exporter of lithium and other rare earth
Speaker 1: metals that are crucial for battery manufacturing and other green technologies.
Speaker 1: So which resources Australian politicians choose to exploit will shape
Speaker 1: global emissions. Australia is also hoping to host COP thirty one,
Speaker 1: the annual United Nations Climate Summit, in twenty twenty six,
Speaker 1: and we know what happens at Corp also shapes global emissions.
Speaker 1: Labor Party first came to power in twenty twenty two
Speaker 1: in what was hailed as a climate election, not just
Speaker 1: because it pushed out politicians that were opposed to climate action,
Speaker 1: but also because it saw the rise of independent candidates
Speaker 1: and a move away from the two party system. The
Speaker 1: Greens and especially the so called Teal Independence were voted
Speaker 1: in because they had a strong climate agenda, and that's
Speaker 1: one reason why the Labor Party under Albanesi was able
Speaker 1: to pass Australia's first climate law in over a decade
Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty two. So what happens next? How
Speaker 1: do the next three years under Albanesi play out for
Speaker 1: Australia's emissions? Is the country caught between a rock and
Speaker 1: a hard place. Given the trade wars and given its
Speaker 1: dependence on the US and China, and are the repeated
Speaker 1: fires and floods reshaping the climate debate. To unpack it all,
Speaker 1: we're joined by David Stringer, Bloomberg Greens Managing editor in Asia,
Speaker 1: who was based in Melbourne. They welcome to the show.
Speaker 2: Thanks, Echa, glad to be here.
Speaker 1: So last week we had the Canadian election and a
Speaker 1: wave of anti US sentiment helped Mark Carney and his
Speaker 1: Liberal Party in Canada to victory. This week we had
Speaker 1: the Australian election, which even though all the votes haven't
Speaker 1: been counted, we can be quite certain that Anthony Albanesi
Speaker 1: and his Labor Party are going to hold the majority
Speaker 1: of the parliament and Anthony Albanesi will be the Prime
Speaker 1: minister now. In both elections, the leaders of the opposition
Speaker 1: party who aligned with Trump, so Pierre Poliev in Canada
Speaker 1: and Peter Dutton in Australia lost their seats in the parliament.
Speaker 1: So Trump is proving to be quite the gift for
Speaker 1: left of center politicians. Huh.
Speaker 2: Well, as you said, the final votes are still being
Speaker 2: counted as of Tuesday evening in Australia, but the result
Speaker 2: is completely beyond diet. This was a real landslide electoral
Speaker 2: victory for Antony Albanesi and is Labor Party, and just
Speaker 2: one caveat from the top about names, the Labor Party
Speaker 2: in Australia is a sort of political brethren akin to
Speaker 2: the Liberal Party of Canada, rather than the Liberal Party
Speaker 2: here being equivalent to its opposite number in Canada. But Albanzi,
Speaker 2: He's really had a commanding victory and that certainly confounded expectations.
Speaker 2: I think going into Saturday's election there was a sense
Speaker 2: that he may have to rely on the support of
Speaker 2: potentially Australian Green Party, potentially independent lawmakers to get his
Speaker 2: policies through. That's not been the case, I think in
Speaker 2: terms of the influence of Trump. Quite clearly, for Mark
Speaker 2: Karney and for Canada, we saw at least a very
Speaker 2: real perceived threat to sovereignty from Trump's administration. It was
Speaker 2: a very visceral part of that campaign for Australia, less
Speaker 2: so the direct impact of Trump. Sure, exporters really don't
Speaker 2: like this, the idea of tariff's. You know, the majority
Speaker 2: of Australian exports are subject to that ten percent baseline.
Speaker 2: There are some products, you know, subject to a higher Levey.
Speaker 2: But what we did see is some adopting of that
Speaker 2: Maga type rhetoric, you know, rather than focusing on the
Speaker 2: policy platform, and they did have one, you know, to
Speaker 2: address the economy, to address housing. What we saw from
Speaker 2: Peter Dutton's Liberal Party is a bit more of a
Speaker 2: focus on culture war issues, you know, and we even
Speaker 2: had some calls for Australia's own version of Doge. So
Speaker 2: certainly that rhetoric wasn't a help. Not only did the
Speaker 2: Liberal Party lose, Peter Dutton himself was booted out of office.
Speaker 1: And Australia has a three year election cycle. In the
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two election, which we covered on the podcast,
Speaker 1: we had both a Green Party member and an independent
Speaker 1: joined the podcast. It was labeled the Climate election this
Speaker 1: time around. In his victory speech this weekend, Prime Minister
Speaker 1: Anthony Albanesi vowed to govern for all Australians, including for
Speaker 1: as he said.
Speaker 2: Every Australian who knows that climate change is a challenge
Speaker 2: we must act.
Speaker 3: Together to made for their future around bar.
Speaker 2: And knows the fact that renewable energy is an opportunity.
Speaker 2: We must work together the seas to a future.
Speaker 1: Out with that in the weekly speech, was climate still
Speaker 1: a big issue in this election?
Speaker 2: The truth is no, in this election it wasn't. And
Speaker 2: as you've said, you know, and as the podcast covered
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two, climate has been a really large issue.
Speaker 2: It's hard to overstate how divisive climate and energy policy
Speaker 2: has been over the past decade two decades in Australia
Speaker 2: and how important it's been to election results. Even if
Speaker 2: we think back to twenty thirteen, that was my first
Speaker 2: election here after moving to Australia, the key issue really
Speaker 2: was carbon pricing. Then Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott. He
Speaker 2: campaigned on repealing a carbon price one office and ultimately
Speaker 2: carried out that policy. Twenty twenty two, the last national election,
Speaker 2: the forefront of voters' minds was still the twenty nineteen
Speaker 2: twenty twenty bush fires, the wildfires that killed more than
Speaker 2: thirty people and that burned an area about half the
Speaker 2: size of Canada. The fact that the then Liberal Party
Speaker 2: coalition government was seen as doing too little in terms
Speaker 2: of an emissions reduction was seen as being a negative
Speaker 2: force in global climate diplomacy and also dismissive of technologies
Speaker 2: like electric vehicles. That was front and center of that campaign.
Speaker 2: This time around, climate has taken a huge backseat housing,
Speaker 2: cost of living, inflation, interest rates, they've been the key issues,
Speaker 2: and in truth, even though Anthony Albanesi's Labor Party is
Speaker 2: seen as much more committee, it's a climate action, in reality,
Speaker 2: we've seen one or two new policies outlined during the campaign,
Speaker 2: one of them a very modest proposal to support household
Speaker 2: batteries with subsidies.
Speaker 1: This is something we've seen in elections all around the
Speaker 1: world following the pandemic, that economic issues have taken precedence.
Speaker 1: And yet when Albinizi did become Prime Minister in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, because of this momentum that was there for climate,
Speaker 1: he did get to pass a major climate legislation, a
Speaker 1: first in a decade, with a target to reduce Australia's
Speaker 1: emissions by forty three percent by twenty thirty relative to
Speaker 1: two thousand and five levels and increase renewables to eighty
Speaker 1: two percent of electricity by twenty thirty. Do we see
Speaker 1: Australia's push towards green energy as something that helps the
Speaker 1: economy and is that something that Labor Party uses as
Speaker 1: a way to push forward its goals because it is
Speaker 1: clearly not on track. Even today, forty seven percent of
Speaker 1: Australia's electricity comes from coal.
Speaker 2: I think you're right to identify a couple of things there,
Speaker 2: and even the passage in that victory speech on Saturday
Speaker 2: night ties some of those threads together. I was really
Speaker 2: struck listening to his speech that climate merited only a
Speaker 2: small mention, but when it did and we heard him
Speaker 2: there tie the desire to increase the share of renewables
Speaker 2: in Australia's energy mix. He tied it to as an
Speaker 2: economic driver, and his government has really encouraged Australians to
Speaker 2: see renewables and to see investment in renewables as a positive,
Speaker 2: forceful job creation, to see as a necessary renewal of
Speaker 2: communities that are currently dependent on fossil fuels, whether that's
Speaker 2: extraction of coal, whether that's gas production, or whether that's
Speaker 2: power plants. It's clear that coal is still really crucial
Speaker 2: to Australia's energy mix, but that is slowly, albeit very
Speaker 2: slowly changing. We are seeing giant coal fired power plants
Speaker 2: gradually be retired, and in fact that will continue and
Speaker 2: will accelerate over the next decade decade and a half.
Speaker 2: All of that means that if we look at those
Speaker 2: emissions targets, Australia is arguably on track to meet its
Speaker 2: twenty thirty goals. So if we look at the most
Speaker 2: recent data, that's emissions in the year through to the
Speaker 2: March twenty twenty four, emissions were twenty eight point two
Speaker 2: percent below that two thousand and five baseline. The majority
Speaker 2: of analysts thinks that puts Australia on a track to
Speaker 2: meet that forty three percent number. Now we can argue
Speaker 2: about whether that target itself is ambitious enough, and I
Speaker 2: think plenty of people would say it isn't. But what
Speaker 2: we do know is the policies that are in place
Speaker 2: and that will continue should allow Australia to achieve that number.
Speaker 2: The harder task is hitting that renewable energy goal. Getting
Speaker 2: to that eighty two percent of electricity generation coming from
Speaker 2: clean sources. That will require a significant ramp up of
Speaker 2: deployment of solar and wind, and really crucially, it involves
Speaker 2: billions and billions more investment into the energy system in Australia,
Speaker 2: not only in generation capacity but also in grids, in infrastructure.
Speaker 2: Whether the government can achieve that is a far more
Speaker 2: difficult question to address.
Speaker 1: So on this show we've talked a bunch about the
Speaker 1: electricity sector. We're going to do a series about electrification
Speaker 1: and the bottlenext to electrification very soon. But we've also
Speaker 1: noted that the decarbonization of electricity relative to other sectors
Speaker 1: is an easier problem. What about the other sectors in
Speaker 1: the economy, What about transport, what about industry? How is
Speaker 1: the country doing now and does the Albanese government have
Speaker 1: policies to reduce emissions from those sectors.
Speaker 2: It does, and it's right to point to other parts
Speaker 2: of the economy. Emissions from the electricity sector and account
Speaker 2: for roughly a third of the total. Transport is another
Speaker 2: huge issue for Australia to tackle. Twenty two percent there
Speaker 2: thereabouts of emissions are related to transport, you know, and
Speaker 2: simply haven't seen the kind of improvements in that sector
Speaker 2: that other nations have. Albanese's government has implemented new vehicle
Speaker 2: efficiency standards and they will continue to ratch it up
Speaker 2: and the hope for the government is that helps to
Speaker 2: drive further adoption of electric vehicles. That should help in
Speaker 2: the passenger vehicle segment. That should see Australia, you know,
Speaker 2: begin to recover some ground. But there are bigger questions
Speaker 2: and more difficult questions when it gets to trucks, trailers,
Speaker 2: and then think about those giant, enormous vehicles we see
Speaker 2: on mind sights in parts of Australia. You know, we've
Speaker 2: seen some trials of electrification, some use of trials of
Speaker 2: hydro gen as a fuel source. Cracking those kind of
Speaker 2: emissions is also vital to Australia's trajectory.
Speaker 1: You know, Australia doesn't have much of a car sector
Speaker 1: and so most of its cars are imported. Now tell me,
Speaker 1: commuting into work today, how many buids did you spot?
Speaker 2: This makes me laughuck Suat because this is something I
Speaker 2: literally have done on a number of occasions on my cycle,
Speaker 2: a thirty minute cycle into the Bloomberg office here in
Speaker 2: the center of Melbourne. I have in the past off
Speaker 2: and counted byds and I did it precisely because it
Speaker 2: was so noticeable. In twenty twenty two we saw the
Speaker 2: Atto three, one of Byde's most popular sort of small
Speaker 2: suv models. We saw that slowly introduced to Australia. My
Speaker 2: latest favorite thing is to look for the numbers of
Speaker 2: BYD sharks. Now that is the sort of flatbed truck
Speaker 2: or a ute as we call it here in Australia,
Speaker 2: the most popular vehicle category in Australia. And finally, there
Speaker 2: is a lower emission in this case BYD's hybrid option.
Speaker 2: For that, I think I saw my first BYD shark
Speaker 2: three or four weeks ago, and now I'm seeing them
Speaker 2: probably every other day. They're really proliferating in the way
Speaker 2: that other BYD models had in the past couple of years.
Speaker 2: And of course still Tesla's remain ubiquous as well. So
Speaker 2: that said, we know from the data that actually it's
Speaker 2: only one in every ten new car sales in Australia
Speaker 2: that's either electric or a hybrid.
Speaker 1: On the industrial side and on the energy side, the
Speaker 1: energy exporting side, especially given how much Australia exports call
Speaker 1: and gas to the world. We have seen the Albanesi
Speaker 1: government come under criticism for approving new gas fields, for
Speaker 1: expanding several existing coal mines. Is there going to be
Speaker 1: any change in strategy in this coming term? Given climate
Speaker 1: wasn't really a big to driving this election, It's.
Speaker 2: Really hard to see an impetus for Albanesi to change
Speaker 2: the approach that he and his government have had in
Speaker 2: their first term. You know, we did have a party,
Speaker 2: the Australian Greens, at this election that campaigned on a
Speaker 2: platform that advocated for no new oil and gas approvals.
Speaker 2: Votes are still being encountered, but the Greens have had
Speaker 2: a really poor election, you know thus far. It's that
Speaker 2: lack of impetus from seemingly from voters that will probably
Speaker 2: you know, give Albanesi some comfort in his current position.
Speaker 2: As you said, his government has approved new coal mines
Speaker 2: and expansions, also new gas fields, and there's been a
Speaker 2: lot of support for those traditional fossil fuel extraction and
Speaker 2: exporting industries. And don't forget they generate a significant proportion
Speaker 2: of export earnings for Australia. There is a really interesting
Speaker 2: test case that will come up very early in this
Speaker 2: new term. There is an approval that needs to be
Speaker 2: considered by the government to extend the lifespan of a
Speaker 2: facility called the Northwest Shelf. It's Australia's oldest and largest
Speaker 2: liquefied natural gas export facility. It's been coming towards the
Speaker 2: end of its current approved tenure. Albanesi's government has to
Speaker 2: decide whether to give it a reprieve and to allow
Speaker 2: it to continue to operate in its current form. That
Speaker 2: could be a real lightning rod moment for this second
Speaker 2: term of the Albanese government. It'll really define how do
Speaker 2: they view gas and coal. And I'll be honest, you
Speaker 2: know what we've seen in the past few years is
Speaker 2: you know, them talk a lot about the not only
Speaker 2: export earnings, but the numbers of jobs they see is
Speaker 2: directly supported, particularly by that gas industry. You know, in
Speaker 2: Albanesi's Resources Minister Madeline King, she's even talked about seeing
Speaker 2: gas as an important energy source through to twenty fifty
Speaker 2: and beyond.
Speaker 1: While this is happening, there is the trade war that
Speaker 1: is being sparked by Donald Trump in the US. Australia
Speaker 1: has a ten percent tariff. Maybe it goes away. We
Speaker 1: don't know what's happening with tariff policies these days and
Speaker 1: how frequently they change. But for Australia, the biggest trading
Speaker 1: partner is China, and we know the US is going
Speaker 1: really hard after China with one hundred percent plus tariffs
Speaker 1: on the country. So if as a result of what's
Speaker 1: going to happen between the US and China, China starts
Speaker 1: slowing down. Does that have a serious impact on the
Speaker 1: Australian economy as well? Given how much Australia exports to China.
Speaker 2: Australia's in a really difficult position. Not on the one
Speaker 2: hand sort of diplomatic security cultural partner in the US,
Speaker 2: and on the other hand it's biggest trading partner China.
Speaker 2: You know, Australia's economy has for so many decades prospered
Speaker 2: from its ability to export iron or the biggest export
Speaker 2: earner in Australia to China, to fuel China's steel industry.
Speaker 2: It's been a major contributor of GDP and you know,
Speaker 2: and we've seen huge companies here, BHP, the world's biggest minor,
Speaker 2: others like Rio Tinto. They've all benefited from that trade
Speaker 2: in the midst of a property crisis, in the midst
Speaker 2: of a deceleration of its economy. That's already having an
Speaker 2: impact now, you know, for Albanese's government and for a
Speaker 2: lot of that resources sector. There's also been a lot
Speaker 2: of optimism in their ability to export other raw materials,
Speaker 2: other minerals to China. You know, Australia has been a
Speaker 2: huge supplier of lithium, raw materials. It also is an
Speaker 2: exporture of nickel, of manganese, of all of the kinds
Speaker 2: of metals and raw materials that are required for batteries,
Speaker 2: for lots of the kind of clean energy supply chains
Speaker 2: that China dominates. The risk as you've identified there is
Speaker 2: what happens is Donald Trump and his administration put pressure
Speaker 2: on Australia to alter its relationship with China. We saw
Speaker 2: in the wake of COVID China removed its imports of
Speaker 2: a whole list of Australian products, coal, crayfish, wine, devastating
Speaker 2: lots of those industries. So China knows it does have
Speaker 2: this ability to have a huge influence on the Australian economy.
Speaker 2: And so yeah, Albanezi finds himself in what is a
Speaker 2: very unenviable position, caught between two large competing superpowers, and.
Speaker 1: China chose to restrict those imports from Australia as a
Speaker 1: result of the politics around COVID and where did the
Speaker 1: virus come from? Now you have a different challenge in
Speaker 1: Donald Trump and the White House. But look, Donald Trump
Speaker 1: is also interested in rare earth minerals. In critical minerals
Speaker 1: in lithium, in nickel are there any conversations the trade
Speaker 1: level that you know that are happening right now with
Speaker 1: the US government to look at whether the US is
Speaker 1: ready to import these critical minerals from Australia instead.
Speaker 2: For a number of years, these conversations have been ongoing,
Speaker 2: you know, in a in a previous role, I wrote
Speaker 2: predominantly about the mining sector, and I have been in
Speaker 2: those rooms, you know, with those US trade representatives and
Speaker 2: a group of whether it's you know, owners of rare
Speaker 2: earth projects who are seeking funding to develop those minds,
Speaker 2: you know, whether it's nickel producers. You know, this is
Speaker 2: a new thing. You know, Australian developers of mining projects
Speaker 2: have been you know, desperately seeking funding from the US
Speaker 2: precisely because of this ongoing desire to reduce reliance on
Speaker 2: China's supply chains. And no, I'm not aware of any
Speaker 2: current and existing conversations that are going on, but obviously,
Speaker 2: you know, under the Biden administration there was a emphasis
Speaker 2: on French shoring in the critical mineral space. Australia was
Speaker 2: a big part of that. I can only imagine that
Speaker 2: those conversations continue with the Trump White House, and it's
Speaker 2: relatively reasonable, I think to expect that, you know, as in,
Speaker 2: if there are any of those conversations around tariffs, that
Speaker 2: critical minerals will become part of that conversation for the
Speaker 2: Trump White House, I think very interesting. One thing we
Speaker 2: have seen in the past few weeks and months from
Speaker 2: the Albanize government is, you know, is a commitment to
Speaker 2: develop a strategic reserve of critical minerals. Having that stockpile
Speaker 2: potentially gives them some leverage if there are those conversations
Speaker 2: around tariffs, around the kind of trading relationship that Australia
Speaker 2: has with the US, maybe that is, you know, something
Speaker 2: that they can potentially leverage.
Speaker 1: We'll be back with more of my conversation with David
Speaker 1: Stringer after the shortbreak. And Hey, if you're enjoying this episode,
Speaker 1: please rate and review Zero on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Speaker 3: You have.
Speaker 1: Feedback really matters and helps new listeners discover the show.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 1: It's worth noting, though, that this election played out a
Speaker 1: little differently from the previous elections I've watched in Australia,
Speaker 1: where the opposition party in the Liberals and the coalition
Speaker 1: partner typically are quite climate denialist and they want nothing
Speaker 1: to do with climate policy. This time around, they weren't
Speaker 1: really pushing against the net zero target that Australia has.
Speaker 1: Actually they were embracing it. They even had a plan
Speaker 1: to build a whole lot of nuclear power plants.
Speaker 4: And today we announce seven locations that we have looked
Speaker 4: at in great detail over a long period of time
Speaker 4: that can host nuclear sites.
Speaker 1: Dutton's plan, as far as I could see, was really
Speaker 1: quite a expensive and he got really badly hit in
Speaker 1: the campaign by coming up with this plan. So given that,
Speaker 1: and given the fact that there are currently non nuclear
Speaker 1: power plants in Australia, do you think there is any
Speaker 1: future for nuclear power in Australia anymore?
Speaker 2: It seems really unlikely that the idea of developing a
Speaker 2: nuclear power industry from scratch is something that is feasible.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: I get the impression that the rejection of that idea
Speaker 2: and policy wasn't necessarily that Australian voters were opposed to
Speaker 2: the idea of nuclear energy. I think the thing that
Speaker 2: people rejected in this election in Australia was the was
Speaker 2: the cost and the timeline and the costings were very contentious.
Speaker 2: Dutton's party insisted that this plan, which would have been
Speaker 2: to develop seven nuclear reactors, seven nuclear power sites, some
Speaker 2: of them small modular reactors, you know, a technology that
Speaker 2: isn't something that is that is commercially available right now.
Speaker 2: The costing that it would have been a minimum of
Speaker 2: around one hundred and sixteen billion Australian dollars that plant
Speaker 2: a minimum. The Labor Party countered with a figure of
Speaker 2: more like six hundred billion Australian and to many voters,
Speaker 2: they saw this as as a strategy that would have
Speaker 2: extended the lives of existing coal fired power plants that
Speaker 2: not only have a negative climate impact, but are expensive, inefficient,
Speaker 2: you know, and would have required potentially regional or national
Speaker 2: avent government subsidies to keep them open. And an additional problem,
Speaker 2: of course is that Australia it isn't even legal to
Speaker 2: have nuclear power at this point. There are federal bands
Speaker 2: in place on having nuclear power stations.
Speaker 1: This time around, between January and April, there were massive
Speaker 1: floods in Queensland, in the state that is known for
Speaker 1: mining a lot of coal.
Speaker 3: Authority to say people were stuck on the roofs of
Speaker 3: their homes as rising waters cut off entire areas. And
Speaker 3: if that wasn't enough, thing we can show you a
Speaker 3: crocodile seen swimming in a storm drain. This is in
Speaker 3: the town of Ingham, ser.
Speaker 1: The area that covered was larger than Germany and France combined.
Speaker 1: Do you think that these natural disasters, just given the
Speaker 1: size of Australia and the extremities with which it's being felt,
Speaker 1: will have an impact on people wanting to support climate
Speaker 1: policies in the future or is it now economics first
Speaker 1: and real see about climate later.
Speaker 2: It really feels like the latter at this point. And
Speaker 2: as you say, there have been some quite significant natural
Speaker 2: disaster events in the opening months of the year. You
Speaker 2: mentioned those huge flooding in the west of Queensland. You know,
Speaker 2: we also had Cyclone Alfred, which happened in March. The
Speaker 2: impact of that cyclone even impacted the date of the election.
Speaker 2: You know, Albanesi had intended to call the election, but
Speaker 2: instead was had to defer because he and his government
Speaker 2: were busy dealing with the impact of that specific, you
Speaker 2: know event. And even in the past few days, you know,
Speaker 2: we've we've we've seen data, government data that showed, you know,
Speaker 2: household spending declined as a result of it. You know,
Speaker 2: we we saw millions of you know, insurers talk about
Speaker 2: millions of losses, significant events, and yet we didn't see
Speaker 2: them discussed in the election campaign. We've seen although this
Speaker 2: this wildfire bushfire as we call it here season, you know,
Speaker 2: was was relatively benign compared to other recent seasons, we
Speaker 2: still saw significant catastrophic fires. Again, they weren't part of
Speaker 2: the campaign, they weren't necessarily discussed. Ultimately, people won't be
Speaker 2: inured to the impact of these events, I think, you know,
Speaker 2: and particularly as we see attribution of these events to
Speaker 2: climate change, I think we'll see policymakers take up that.
Speaker 1: Climate policies might not be popular these days. But the
Speaker 1: climate calendar continues, and there is one coming up later
Speaker 1: in Brazil COP thirty, and countries are supposed to submit
Speaker 1: their plans for twenty thirty five with updated higher ambition.
Speaker 1: In Australia, which is supposed to submit its plans by February,
Speaker 1: deferred that and we are expecting it to come idly
Speaker 1: before COP thirty. Do we have any sense of when
Speaker 1: it'll come and whether it will show the ambition that
Speaker 1: the world needs.
Speaker 2: In honest truth, we don't at this stage. You know,
Speaker 2: it was as you say, it was deferred really for
Speaker 2: two reasons. One, there was an election pending, a lot
Speaker 2: of attention was focused on campaigning, and also there was
Speaker 2: a realistic proposition that had there been a change in government,
Speaker 2: we would have seen a much radically different, new nationally
Speaker 2: determined contribution. And in fact, Dutton's party had talked about
Speaker 2: potentially rolling back the targets or for twenty thirty Never mind,
Speaker 2: you know the twenty thirty five.
Speaker 1: But look, there is another cop that comes after. Cop
Speaker 1: thirty was just Cop thirty one, And before the election
Speaker 1: we knew that Anthony Albanzi wanted to host Cop thirty
Speaker 1: one in Australia, even going as far as noting that
Speaker 1: Adelaide might be the location where it will be held.
Speaker 1: And typically countries wanting to host cops have to show
Speaker 1: that they have the ambition, that they have the desire
Speaker 1: to support the Paris Agreement. Would that do you think
Speaker 1: matter in the targets that Australia sets out this year?
Speaker 2: Oh, I'm absolutely you know, I mean, having won one
Speaker 2: election and convinced the Australian voters to return him to office,
Speaker 2: you know, Albanese's sort of next campaign as well. He's
Speaker 2: got to persuade a group of climate diplomats, you know,
Speaker 2: in the rotating blocks within the COPS structure. He's now
Speaker 2: facing the task to convince them that it's Australia and
Speaker 2: not Turkey that ought to be the host of the
Speaker 2: twenty twenty six UN Climate Conference COP thirty one. So
Speaker 2: part of that clearly will need to be showing greater
Speaker 2: ambition and getting his homework, getting that next NDC in
Speaker 2: as soon as possible to the UN. Certainly we expect
Speaker 2: that to be launched before the bellum COP. And it's
Speaker 2: I think it's fair to assume, you know, given the
Speaker 2: direction of travel we've seen from this government, that it
Speaker 2: will set a more ambitious target. You know, as we've discussed,
Speaker 2: there are areas of Australia's economy where climate policy is developing. Transport,
Speaker 2: industrial emissions, you know, really importantly, you know, there is
Speaker 2: a policy in place that covers some of the biggest
Speaker 2: polluting facilities, industrial facilities in Australia. The targets for them
Speaker 2: to cut emissions continue to ratchet up and we'll see
Speaker 2: that kind of contribution. So I think it's fair to
Speaker 2: assume a more ambitious new plan. It's a separate question
Speaker 2: of whether all of that will be sufficient to to
Speaker 2: persuade climate diplomats of Australia's credentials.
Speaker 1: It's been a conversation that's been sort of dour and
Speaker 1: climate policies, and I think we are on the upswing here,
Speaker 1: so let's keep on that upswing. And you know, of
Speaker 1: course you're based in Melbourne, You're based in Australia, but
Speaker 1: you look over our Asian coverage for bloombergrain, are there
Speaker 1: places outside of Australia where you are seeing green shoots
Speaker 1: that show why climate policies might endure or climate action
Speaker 1: might be strengthened.
Speaker 2: I think there are, and that is really critical because,
Speaker 2: as we know, Asia as a region accounts for more
Speaker 2: than half of total global greenhouse gas emissions, and so
Speaker 2: what happens in Asia is utterly critical to the trajectory
Speaker 2: of planetary warming. We can look at governments in places
Speaker 2: like the Philippines or Malaysia where there's really interesting work
Speaker 2: going on to advance policies that are accommodating greater investment
Speaker 2: in renewable energy. There's a huge amount of activity across
Speaker 2: the region to catalyze and improve on emissions trading systems
Speaker 2: you know, there's a enormous amount of interest you know,
Speaker 2: in the government to government trading of common credits too,
Speaker 2: and you know, we should see in the coming months
Speaker 2: Indonesia take some significant steps there. But the two big
Speaker 2: economies that I've spent most time, I guess thinking about
Speaker 2: in this region are China and India, huge contributors to
Speaker 2: global emissions. And late last month, we saw China's President Jijiping,
Speaker 2: you know, address a virtual conference of fellow global leaders
Speaker 2: to talk about climate policies, to talk about the kind
Speaker 2: of commitments they're going to be needed at COP thirty
Speaker 2: in Brazil, and that was really significant to me. The
Speaker 2: fact that we had President Ji committing China to more
Speaker 2: ambitious emissions reduction, committing the country to target not just
Speaker 2: carbon dioxide emissions but all greenhouse gas emissions hugely significant
Speaker 2: because China's total climate footprint, its contribution of gases outside
Speaker 2: of carbon dioxide is absolutely mammoth, you know, actually bigger
Speaker 2: than the majority of other countries' total emissions. Very significant
Speaker 2: intervention from g and that suggests that China will continue
Speaker 2: to accelerate its development of climate policy. Clearly, as we know,
Speaker 2: there is a lot of work to do. Yes, they
Speaker 2: have had this remarkable, scarcely believable adoption of renewable energy,
Speaker 2: but it hasn't necessarily translated into genuine decarbonization of their
Speaker 2: power sector because energy consumption continues to rise. The rhetoric
Speaker 2: from g some of the policy development we're seeing I
Speaker 2: think you know does sugges yes, that we're going to
Speaker 2: start to see genuine inroads made by China on its
Speaker 2: emissions profile. When it comes to India, we're not yet
Speaker 2: seeing the same policy settings. It's a country that still has,
Speaker 2: as you know, as we both know, as we both
Speaker 2: reported on a huge task ahead in terms of decarbonization. Yes,
Speaker 2: there are green shoots in the region, but there's still
Speaker 2: a lot of work to do, and there's still big
Speaker 2: economies with huge tasks ahead of them.
Speaker 1: We've had analysts looking at Chinese emissions and recognizing that
Speaker 1: perhaps they may have peaked as of twenty twenty four,
Speaker 1: and given the economic rejectory, they might just prove to
Speaker 1: be right. But there is one aspect of what's happening
Speaker 1: in the world, especially from the Asian perspective, that I
Speaker 1: want to get your view on, which is that a
Speaker 1: lot of the trade policies, at least in rhetoric, are
Speaker 1: about stopping China dumping cheap stuff into America or into
Speaker 1: Europe because Europe wants its own solar manufacturing capacity and
Speaker 1: Europe wants its own electric vehicle manufacturing capacity. But if
Speaker 1: that is the garb under which these trade policies are
Speaker 1: being deployed, there are tons of other countries in the
Speaker 1: world who do not want to build their own auto
Speaker 1: manufacturing sector, or do not want to build their own
Speaker 1: solar manufacturing sector. They could become real beneficiaries of this
Speaker 1: cheap solar and evs that are sitting in China and
Speaker 1: are not going to go anymore to the US or
Speaker 1: even to Europe, but might end up in African countries,
Speaker 1: might end up in South American countries, might end up
Speaker 1: in Australia, as we've seen with the bids. So those
Speaker 1: green shoots could really go and have an impact elsewhere.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and I think when it comes to electric vehicles,
Speaker 2: when it comes to green clean energy equipment, you're absolutely
Speaker 2: right there is an opportunity there. I think back to
Speaker 2: comments last year from BYD and its executives. You know,
Speaker 2: they were asked about the problem that they face with
Speaker 2: you know, not really being able to sell in the US.
Speaker 2: And their response is it doesn't trouble us. There are
Speaker 2: so many other markets for them to exploit and to target,
Speaker 2: you know, whether it is Latin America, whether it is Europe,
Speaker 2: whether it is Australia, the same I'm sure will prove
Speaker 2: to be the case for solar sales or modular exporters.
Speaker 2: Just look at some situations we've had, you know, even
Speaker 2: last year, like suddenly a huge surprise in imports by
Speaker 2: Pakistan of solar equipment. You know, we've seen that some
Speaker 2: of the faster grown regions for adoption of solar places
Speaker 2: in the Middle East. You know, there are dynamic markets
Speaker 2: that China's dominant manufacturers will naturally gravitate towards. The truth is,
Speaker 2: you know, exports to the US for many of those
Speaker 2: Chinese manufacturers haven't ever been huge. You know, they've only
Speaker 2: ever accounted for small amounts of their exports, and so
Speaker 2: there definitely is that happy sort of marriage of over capacity,
Speaker 2: huge clot of manufacturing capacity, whether it's in solar and
Speaker 2: wind and EV batteries in evs, and then markets that
Speaker 2: really stand to benefit from a lower cost of those
Speaker 2: clean energy products so yeah, that absolutely could see that
Speaker 2: being a trend and a theme that we start to
Speaker 2: see accelerate in the in the months and years ahead.
Speaker 1: Thank you for listening to zero and now for the
Speaker 1: sound of the week. That's the sound of an EMU,
Speaker 1: Australia's unofficial National Bird Proving Ones and for all that
Speaker 1: birds really are just dinosaurs in cute clothing. If you
Speaker 1: like this episode, please take a moment to rate and
Speaker 1: review the show on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Share this
Speaker 1: episode with a friend or with someone running for office.
Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Oscar Boyd. Noomberg's head of
Speaker 1: podcast is a Bauman and head of Talk is Brendan newnham.
Speaker 1: Our theme music is composed by Wonderly Special Thanks to
Speaker 1: Somersadi Mosses Andim and Sherwan Wagner. I'm Akshatrati back soon.