WEBVTT - How Australia’s natural resources will shape global emissions 0:00:01.120 --> 0:00:05.520 Welcome to zero. I'm akshatarati. This week climate elections two 0:00:05.519 --> 0:00:22.760 point zero. Australia, the land of flood whites, beautiful corals 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:28.800 and ridiculously poisonous animals, just had an election, and like 0:00:28.880 --> 0:00:34.280 Canada's election last week, it produced a surprise result. Ladies, 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:41.479 crime pals got the nine my majority, Live, government, promise 0:00:41.720 --> 0:00:46.519 and deliberate. Since Trump returned to the White House, the 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:50.320 Australian electorate has swung away from the center right Liberal 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:54.840 Party and toward the incumbent centre left Labor Party. The 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:57.800 swing has been large enough that Labor, led by Prime 0:00:57.840 --> 0:01:01.200 Minister Anthony Albanesi, now has a large majority in the 0:01:01.240 --> 0:01:05.080 Lower House. Just a few months ago, Labor was projected 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:09.040 to lose seats. And it's worth understanding what happened in 0:01:09.120 --> 0:01:12.840 the Australian election because what happens in Australia matters to 0:01:12.880 --> 0:01:16.080 the world. Australia is the world's largest exporter of coal 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:19.160 and one of the largest exporters of gas, but it 0:01:19.240 --> 0:01:22.120 also has abundant sun and wind, and so it is 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:25.120 a prime location to build renewables. It is also the 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:28.759 world's largest producer of iron and aluminum ores, as well 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:31.319 as the biggest exporter of lithium and other rare earth 0:01:31.360 --> 0:01:35.520 metals that are crucial for battery manufacturing and other green technologies. 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:41.440 So which resources Australian politicians choose to exploit will shape 0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:46.399 global emissions. Australia is also hoping to host COP thirty one, 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:50.160 the annual United Nations Climate Summit, in twenty twenty six, 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:54.520 and we know what happens at Corp also shapes global emissions. 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:58.720 Labor Party first came to power in twenty twenty two 0:01:59.040 --> 0:02:02.200 in what was hailed as a climate election, not just 0:02:02.240 --> 0:02:05.400 because it pushed out politicians that were opposed to climate action, 0:02:05.800 --> 0:02:09.200 but also because it saw the rise of independent candidates 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:12.480 and a move away from the two party system. The 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:16.480 Greens and especially the so called Teal Independence were voted 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:19.959 in because they had a strong climate agenda, and that's 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:23.640 one reason why the Labor Party under Albanesi was able 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:27.600 to pass Australia's first climate law in over a decade 0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:32.720 back in twenty twenty two. So what happens next? How 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:36.000 do the next three years under Albanesi play out for 0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:39.760 Australia's emissions? Is the country caught between a rock and 0:02:39.760 --> 0:02:42.600 a hard place. Given the trade wars and given its 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:46.040 dependence on the US and China, and are the repeated 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:50.520 fires and floods reshaping the climate debate. To unpack it all, 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:54.280 we're joined by David Stringer, Bloomberg Greens Managing editor in Asia, 0:02:54.400 --> 0:03:01.120 who was based in Melbourne. They welcome to the show. 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:03.040 Thanks, Echa, glad to be here. 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:06.520 So last week we had the Canadian election and a 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:10.600 wave of anti US sentiment helped Mark Carney and his 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:14.799 Liberal Party in Canada to victory. This week we had 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:18.360 the Australian election, which even though all the votes haven't 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:21.959 been counted, we can be quite certain that Anthony Albanesi 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:25.600 and his Labor Party are going to hold the majority 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:28.440 of the parliament and Anthony Albanesi will be the Prime 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:32.280 minister now. In both elections, the leaders of the opposition 0:03:32.400 --> 0:03:36.960 party who aligned with Trump, so Pierre Poliev in Canada 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:41.240 and Peter Dutton in Australia lost their seats in the parliament. 0:03:41.560 --> 0:03:43.880 So Trump is proving to be quite the gift for 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:45.960 left of center politicians. Huh. 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:48.280 Well, as you said, the final votes are still being 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:52.640 counted as of Tuesday evening in Australia, but the result 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:57.760 is completely beyond diet. This was a real landslide electoral 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:01.240 victory for Antony Albanesi and is Labor Party, and just 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:05.160 one caveat from the top about names, the Labor Party 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:08.920 in Australia is a sort of political brethren akin to 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:12.480 the Liberal Party of Canada, rather than the Liberal Party 0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:17.320 here being equivalent to its opposite number in Canada. But Albanzi, 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:23.120 He's really had a commanding victory and that certainly confounded expectations. 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:27.559 I think going into Saturday's election there was a sense 0:04:27.560 --> 0:04:30.080 that he may have to rely on the support of 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:35.599 potentially Australian Green Party, potentially independent lawmakers to get his 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:39.200 policies through. That's not been the case, I think in 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:42.200 terms of the influence of Trump. Quite clearly, for Mark 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:45.240 Karney and for Canada, we saw at least a very 0:04:45.360 --> 0:04:49.680 real perceived threat to sovereignty from Trump's administration. It was 0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:54.840 a very visceral part of that campaign for Australia, less 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:59.679 so the direct impact of Trump. Sure, exporters really don't 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:02.080 like this, the idea of tariff's. You know, the majority 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:05.760 of Australian exports are subject to that ten percent baseline. 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:08.799 There are some products, you know, subject to a higher Levey. 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:11.200 But what we did see is some adopting of that 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:14.640 Maga type rhetoric, you know, rather than focusing on the 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:17.279 policy platform, and they did have one, you know, to 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:20.960 address the economy, to address housing. What we saw from 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:23.919 Peter Dutton's Liberal Party is a bit more of a 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:26.479 focus on culture war issues, you know, and we even 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:30.480 had some calls for Australia's own version of Doge. So 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:33.840 certainly that rhetoric wasn't a help. Not only did the 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:38.359 Liberal Party lose, Peter Dutton himself was booted out of office. 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:41.320 And Australia has a three year election cycle. In the 0:05:41.400 --> 0:05:44.520 twenty twenty two election, which we covered on the podcast, 0:05:44.600 --> 0:05:47.800 we had both a Green Party member and an independent 0:05:47.920 --> 0:05:51.920 joined the podcast. It was labeled the Climate election this 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:54.960 time around. In his victory speech this weekend, Prime Minister 0:05:55.000 --> 0:06:00.320 Anthony Albanesi vowed to govern for all Australians, including for 0:06:00.720 --> 0:06:02.000 as he said. 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:07.799 Every Australian who knows that climate change is a challenge 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:09.240 we must act. 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:11.920 Together to made for their future around bar. 0:06:13.120 --> 0:06:18.080 And knows the fact that renewable energy is an opportunity. 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:21.880 We must work together the seas to a future. 0:06:21.680 --> 0:06:26.880 Out with that in the weekly speech, was climate still 0:06:27.120 --> 0:06:28.440 a big issue in this election? 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:31.680 The truth is no, in this election it wasn't. And 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:34.360 as you've said, you know, and as the podcast covered 0:06:34.440 --> 0:06:39.120 in twenty twenty two, climate has been a really large issue. 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:44.880 It's hard to overstate how divisive climate and energy policy 0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:48.040 has been over the past decade two decades in Australia 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:51.280 and how important it's been to election results. Even if 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:53.880 we think back to twenty thirteen, that was my first 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:58.080 election here after moving to Australia, the key issue really 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:03.080 was carbon pricing. Then Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott. He 0:07:03.120 --> 0:07:07.280 campaigned on repealing a carbon price one office and ultimately 0:07:07.600 --> 0:07:11.680 carried out that policy. Twenty twenty two, the last national election, 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:15.640 the forefront of voters' minds was still the twenty nineteen 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:20.360 twenty twenty bush fires, the wildfires that killed more than 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:24.000 thirty people and that burned an area about half the 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:27.920 size of Canada. The fact that the then Liberal Party 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:31.920 coalition government was seen as doing too little in terms 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:35.760 of an emissions reduction was seen as being a negative 0:07:35.800 --> 0:07:41.440 force in global climate diplomacy and also dismissive of technologies 0:07:41.480 --> 0:07:44.600 like electric vehicles. That was front and center of that campaign. 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:48.800 This time around, climate has taken a huge backseat housing, 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:54.200 cost of living, inflation, interest rates, they've been the key issues, 0:07:54.560 --> 0:07:58.400 and in truth, even though Anthony Albanesi's Labor Party is 0:07:58.440 --> 0:08:02.520 seen as much more committee, it's a climate action, in reality, 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:06.960 we've seen one or two new policies outlined during the campaign, 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:11.080 one of them a very modest proposal to support household 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:12.960 batteries with subsidies. 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:15.480 This is something we've seen in elections all around the 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:20.280 world following the pandemic, that economic issues have taken precedence. 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:23.480 And yet when Albinizi did become Prime Minister in twenty 0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:26.960 twenty two, because of this momentum that was there for climate, 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:32.080 he did get to pass a major climate legislation, a 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:35.040 first in a decade, with a target to reduce Australia's 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:38.280 emissions by forty three percent by twenty thirty relative to 0:08:38.360 --> 0:08:42.480 two thousand and five levels and increase renewables to eighty 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:46.120 two percent of electricity by twenty thirty. Do we see 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:50.200 Australia's push towards green energy as something that helps the 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:53.839 economy and is that something that Labor Party uses as 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:56.400 a way to push forward its goals because it is 0:08:56.520 --> 0:09:00.559 clearly not on track. Even today, forty seven percent of 0:09:00.880 --> 0:09:03.439 Australia's electricity comes from coal. 0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:06.160 I think you're right to identify a couple of things there, 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:10.200 and even the passage in that victory speech on Saturday 0:09:10.320 --> 0:09:13.160 night ties some of those threads together. I was really 0:09:13.200 --> 0:09:17.240 struck listening to his speech that climate merited only a 0:09:17.280 --> 0:09:19.600 small mention, but when it did and we heard him 0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:23.679 there tie the desire to increase the share of renewables 0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:26.679 in Australia's energy mix. He tied it to as an 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:32.360 economic driver, and his government has really encouraged Australians to 0:09:32.440 --> 0:09:36.120 see renewables and to see investment in renewables as a positive, 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:40.080 forceful job creation, to see as a necessary renewal of 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:44.720 communities that are currently dependent on fossil fuels, whether that's 0:09:44.800 --> 0:09:47.720 extraction of coal, whether that's gas production, or whether that's 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:51.720 power plants. It's clear that coal is still really crucial 0:09:52.240 --> 0:09:57.240 to Australia's energy mix, but that is slowly, albeit very 0:09:57.280 --> 0:10:01.959 slowly changing. We are seeing giant coal fired power plants 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:06.720 gradually be retired, and in fact that will continue and 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:09.840 will accelerate over the next decade decade and a half. 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:12.120 All of that means that if we look at those 0:10:12.200 --> 0:10:18.200 emissions targets, Australia is arguably on track to meet its 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:21.600 twenty thirty goals. So if we look at the most 0:10:21.640 --> 0:10:24.800 recent data, that's emissions in the year through to the 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:28.680 March twenty twenty four, emissions were twenty eight point two 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:32.760 percent below that two thousand and five baseline. The majority 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:35.520 of analysts thinks that puts Australia on a track to 0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:39.960 meet that forty three percent number. Now we can argue 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:43.280 about whether that target itself is ambitious enough, and I 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:46.640 think plenty of people would say it isn't. But what 0:10:46.679 --> 0:10:49.200 we do know is the policies that are in place 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:52.520 and that will continue should allow Australia to achieve that number. 0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:58.080 The harder task is hitting that renewable energy goal. Getting 0:10:58.120 --> 0:11:02.000 to that eighty two percent of electricity generation coming from 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:07.080 clean sources. That will require a significant ramp up of 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:12.200 deployment of solar and wind, and really crucially, it involves 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:17.360 billions and billions more investment into the energy system in Australia, 0:11:17.400 --> 0:11:21.600 not only in generation capacity but also in grids, in infrastructure. 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:25.400 Whether the government can achieve that is a far more 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:27.000 difficult question to address. 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:29.120 So on this show we've talked a bunch about the 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:32.400 electricity sector. We're going to do a series about electrification 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:37.040 and the bottlenext to electrification very soon. But we've also 0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:41.800 noted that the decarbonization of electricity relative to other sectors 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:45.520 is an easier problem. What about the other sectors in 0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:49.520 the economy, What about transport, what about industry? How is 0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:53.319 the country doing now and does the Albanese government have 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.520 policies to reduce emissions from those sectors. 0:11:57.000 --> 0:12:00.640 It does, and it's right to point to other parts 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:04.520 of the economy. Emissions from the electricity sector and account 0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:09.079 for roughly a third of the total. Transport is another 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:13.360 huge issue for Australia to tackle. Twenty two percent there 0:12:13.360 --> 0:12:17.840 thereabouts of emissions are related to transport, you know, and 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:21.800 simply haven't seen the kind of improvements in that sector 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:25.800 that other nations have. Albanese's government has implemented new vehicle 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:29.360 efficiency standards and they will continue to ratch it up 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:32.160 and the hope for the government is that helps to 0:12:32.360 --> 0:12:37.560 drive further adoption of electric vehicles. That should help in 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:40.760 the passenger vehicle segment. That should see Australia, you know, 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:43.880 begin to recover some ground. But there are bigger questions 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:48.400 and more difficult questions when it gets to trucks, trailers, 0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:53.040 and then think about those giant, enormous vehicles we see 0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:55.640 on mind sights in parts of Australia. You know, we've 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:59.640 seen some trials of electrification, some use of trials of 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:02.720 hydro gen as a fuel source. Cracking those kind of 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:06.360 emissions is also vital to Australia's trajectory. 0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:08.600 You know, Australia doesn't have much of a car sector 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:11.320 and so most of its cars are imported. Now tell me, 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:15.000 commuting into work today, how many buids did you spot? 0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:17.720 This makes me laughuck Suat because this is something I 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:22.240 literally have done on a number of occasions on my cycle, 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:25.840 a thirty minute cycle into the Bloomberg office here in 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:28.439 the center of Melbourne. I have in the past off 0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:32.280 and counted byds and I did it precisely because it 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:35.320 was so noticeable. In twenty twenty two we saw the 0:13:35.320 --> 0:13:38.840 Atto three, one of Byde's most popular sort of small 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:43.800 suv models. We saw that slowly introduced to Australia. My 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:45.880 latest favorite thing is to look for the numbers of 0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:51.079 BYD sharks. Now that is the sort of flatbed truck 0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:54.000 or a ute as we call it here in Australia, 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:59.640 the most popular vehicle category in Australia. And finally, there 0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:03.800 is a lower emission in this case BYD's hybrid option. 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:06.640 For that, I think I saw my first BYD shark 0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:09.840 three or four weeks ago, and now I'm seeing them 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:12.960 probably every other day. They're really proliferating in the way 0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:16.920 that other BYD models had in the past couple of years. 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:21.160 And of course still Tesla's remain ubiquous as well. So 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:26.680 that said, we know from the data that actually it's 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:30.080 only one in every ten new car sales in Australia 0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:33.240 that's either electric or a hybrid. 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:37.040 On the industrial side and on the energy side, the 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:42.840 energy exporting side, especially given how much Australia exports call 0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:46.760 and gas to the world. We have seen the Albanesi 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:50.760 government come under criticism for approving new gas fields, for 0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:55.400 expanding several existing coal mines. Is there going to be 0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:58.800 any change in strategy in this coming term? Given climate 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:02.280 wasn't really a big to driving this election, It's. 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:06.520 Really hard to see an impetus for Albanesi to change 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:08.520 the approach that he and his government have had in 0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:10.680 their first term. You know, we did have a party, 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:14.400 the Australian Greens, at this election that campaigned on a 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:19.520 platform that advocated for no new oil and gas approvals. 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:22.200 Votes are still being encountered, but the Greens have had 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:24.920 a really poor election, you know thus far. It's that 0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:28.040 lack of impetus from seemingly from voters that will probably 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:31.720 you know, give Albanesi some comfort in his current position. 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:35.400 As you said, his government has approved new coal mines 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:39.720 and expansions, also new gas fields, and there's been a 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:44.840 lot of support for those traditional fossil fuel extraction and 0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:49.000 exporting industries. And don't forget they generate a significant proportion 0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:53.120 of export earnings for Australia. There is a really interesting 0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:56.080 test case that will come up very early in this 0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:59.520 new term. There is an approval that needs to be 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:03.360 considered by the government to extend the lifespan of a 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:07.320 facility called the Northwest Shelf. It's Australia's oldest and largest 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:12.880 liquefied natural gas export facility. It's been coming towards the 0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:17.480 end of its current approved tenure. Albanesi's government has to 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:20.560 decide whether to give it a reprieve and to allow 0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:23.560 it to continue to operate in its current form. That 0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:28.120 could be a real lightning rod moment for this second 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:31.360 term of the Albanese government. It'll really define how do 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:34.800 they view gas and coal. And I'll be honest, you 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:36.800 know what we've seen in the past few years is 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.440 you know, them talk a lot about the not only 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:42.160 export earnings, but the numbers of jobs they see is 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:46.520 directly supported, particularly by that gas industry. You know, in 0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:51.040 Albanesi's Resources Minister Madeline King, she's even talked about seeing 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:54.640 gas as an important energy source through to twenty fifty 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:55.680 and beyond. 0:16:56.280 --> 0:17:00.320 While this is happening, there is the trade war that 0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:03.760 is being sparked by Donald Trump in the US. Australia 0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:06.159 has a ten percent tariff. Maybe it goes away. We 0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:09.080 don't know what's happening with tariff policies these days and 0:17:09.160 --> 0:17:12.919 how frequently they change. But for Australia, the biggest trading 0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:16.160 partner is China, and we know the US is going 0:17:16.240 --> 0:17:19.800 really hard after China with one hundred percent plus tariffs 0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:24.960 on the country. So if as a result of what's 0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:28.200 going to happen between the US and China, China starts 0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:31.480 slowing down. Does that have a serious impact on the 0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:36.440 Australian economy as well? Given how much Australia exports to China. 0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:39.680 Australia's in a really difficult position. Not on the one 0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:44.840 hand sort of diplomatic security cultural partner in the US, 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:48.520 and on the other hand it's biggest trading partner China. 0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:53.760 You know, Australia's economy has for so many decades prospered 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:58.040 from its ability to export iron or the biggest export 0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:03.160 earner in Australia to China, to fuel China's steel industry. 0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:07.639 It's been a major contributor of GDP and you know, 0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:11.800 and we've seen huge companies here, BHP, the world's biggest minor, 0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:15.480 others like Rio Tinto. They've all benefited from that trade 0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:20.040 in the midst of a property crisis, in the midst 0:18:20.080 --> 0:18:24.359 of a deceleration of its economy. That's already having an 0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:28.199 impact now, you know, for Albanese's government and for a 0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:30.880 lot of that resources sector. There's also been a lot 0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:34.919 of optimism in their ability to export other raw materials, 0:18:35.000 --> 0:18:38.000 other minerals to China. You know, Australia has been a 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:42.399 huge supplier of lithium, raw materials. It also is an 0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:47.159 exporture of nickel, of manganese, of all of the kinds 0:18:47.200 --> 0:18:50.719 of metals and raw materials that are required for batteries, 0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:54.080 for lots of the kind of clean energy supply chains 0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:58.520 that China dominates. The risk as you've identified there is 0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:03.240 what happens is Donald Trump and his administration put pressure 0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:07.439 on Australia to alter its relationship with China. We saw 0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:12.320 in the wake of COVID China removed its imports of 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:18.400 a whole list of Australian products, coal, crayfish, wine, devastating 0:19:18.440 --> 0:19:21.440 lots of those industries. So China knows it does have 0:19:21.760 --> 0:19:27.879 this ability to have a huge influence on the Australian economy. 0:19:28.560 --> 0:19:32.080 And so yeah, Albanezi finds himself in what is a 0:19:32.200 --> 0:19:38.840 very unenviable position, caught between two large competing superpowers, and. 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:41.879 China chose to restrict those imports from Australia as a 0:19:41.920 --> 0:19:44.639 result of the politics around COVID and where did the 0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:47.600 virus come from? Now you have a different challenge in 0:19:47.760 --> 0:19:51.080 Donald Trump and the White House. But look, Donald Trump 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:56.680 is also interested in rare earth minerals. In critical minerals 0:19:56.760 --> 0:20:00.520 in lithium, in nickel are there any conversations the trade 0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:03.560 level that you know that are happening right now with 0:20:03.680 --> 0:20:06.280 the US government to look at whether the US is 0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:09.119 ready to import these critical minerals from Australia instead. 0:20:09.520 --> 0:20:14.439 For a number of years, these conversations have been ongoing, 0:20:14.520 --> 0:20:17.160 you know, in a in a previous role, I wrote 0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:19.760 predominantly about the mining sector, and I have been in 0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:24.320 those rooms, you know, with those US trade representatives and 0:20:24.400 --> 0:20:28.600 a group of whether it's you know, owners of rare 0:20:28.640 --> 0:20:33.240 earth projects who are seeking funding to develop those minds, 0:20:33.320 --> 0:20:36.440 you know, whether it's nickel producers. You know, this is 0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:40.399 a new thing. You know, Australian developers of mining projects 0:20:40.840 --> 0:20:44.520 have been you know, desperately seeking funding from the US 0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:49.159 precisely because of this ongoing desire to reduce reliance on 0:20:49.280 --> 0:20:52.600 China's supply chains. And no, I'm not aware of any 0:20:52.760 --> 0:20:56.720 current and existing conversations that are going on, but obviously, 0:20:56.760 --> 0:21:00.680 you know, under the Biden administration there was a emphasis 0:21:00.680 --> 0:21:04.159 on French shoring in the critical mineral space. Australia was 0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:06.480 a big part of that. I can only imagine that 0:21:06.560 --> 0:21:10.160 those conversations continue with the Trump White House, and it's 0:21:11.000 --> 0:21:14.040 relatively reasonable, I think to expect that, you know, as in, 0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:17.919 if there are any of those conversations around tariffs, that 0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:21.800 critical minerals will become part of that conversation for the 0:21:21.800 --> 0:21:24.480 Trump White House, I think very interesting. One thing we 0:21:24.600 --> 0:21:26.959 have seen in the past few weeks and months from 0:21:27.000 --> 0:21:29.679 the Albanize government is, you know, is a commitment to 0:21:29.720 --> 0:21:34.840 develop a strategic reserve of critical minerals. Having that stockpile 0:21:35.280 --> 0:21:38.880 potentially gives them some leverage if there are those conversations 0:21:38.920 --> 0:21:42.600 around tariffs, around the kind of trading relationship that Australia 0:21:42.600 --> 0:21:45.119 has with the US, maybe that is, you know, something 0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:49.600 that they can potentially leverage. 0:21:51.480 --> 0:21:53.560 We'll be back with more of my conversation with David 0:21:53.600 --> 0:21:58.000 Stringer after the shortbreak. And Hey, if you're enjoying this episode, 0:21:58.080 --> 0:22:01.200 please rate and review Zero on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 0:22:01.520 --> 0:22:01.680 You have. 0:22:01.720 --> 0:22:05.280 Feedback really matters and helps new listeners discover the show. 0:22:05.560 --> 0:22:05.919 Thank you. 0:22:16.240 --> 0:22:18.960 It's worth noting, though, that this election played out a 0:22:19.000 --> 0:22:22.840 little differently from the previous elections I've watched in Australia, 0:22:23.280 --> 0:22:26.840 where the opposition party in the Liberals and the coalition 0:22:27.000 --> 0:22:31.440 partner typically are quite climate denialist and they want nothing 0:22:31.440 --> 0:22:34.240 to do with climate policy. This time around, they weren't 0:22:34.280 --> 0:22:36.959 really pushing against the net zero target that Australia has. 0:22:37.040 --> 0:22:40.639 Actually they were embracing it. They even had a plan 0:22:41.119 --> 0:22:44.080 to build a whole lot of nuclear power plants. 0:22:43.760 --> 0:22:47.320 And today we announce seven locations that we have looked 0:22:47.320 --> 0:22:50.280 at in great detail over a long period of time 0:22:50.920 --> 0:22:55.240 that can host nuclear sites. 0:22:55.760 --> 0:22:59.479 Dutton's plan, as far as I could see, was really 0:22:59.600 --> 0:23:04.240 quite a expensive and he got really badly hit in 0:23:04.280 --> 0:23:08.360 the campaign by coming up with this plan. So given that, 0:23:08.760 --> 0:23:11.280 and given the fact that there are currently non nuclear 0:23:11.280 --> 0:23:14.000 power plants in Australia, do you think there is any 0:23:14.040 --> 0:23:16.320 future for nuclear power in Australia anymore? 0:23:16.760 --> 0:23:20.879 It seems really unlikely that the idea of developing a 0:23:20.960 --> 0:23:25.000 nuclear power industry from scratch is something that is feasible. 0:23:25.040 --> 0:23:25.320 Now. 0:23:25.520 --> 0:23:29.200 I get the impression that the rejection of that idea 0:23:29.400 --> 0:23:34.080 and policy wasn't necessarily that Australian voters were opposed to 0:23:34.119 --> 0:23:37.600 the idea of nuclear energy. I think the thing that 0:23:37.640 --> 0:23:41.240 people rejected in this election in Australia was the was 0:23:41.280 --> 0:23:45.960 the cost and the timeline and the costings were very contentious. 0:23:46.320 --> 0:23:49.679 Dutton's party insisted that this plan, which would have been 0:23:49.680 --> 0:23:54.320 to develop seven nuclear reactors, seven nuclear power sites, some 0:23:54.359 --> 0:23:57.159 of them small modular reactors, you know, a technology that 0:23:57.720 --> 0:24:02.119 isn't something that is that is commercially available right now. 0:24:02.240 --> 0:24:04.840 The costing that it would have been a minimum of 0:24:05.080 --> 0:24:07.960 around one hundred and sixteen billion Australian dollars that plant 0:24:08.040 --> 0:24:11.119 a minimum. The Labor Party countered with a figure of 0:24:11.160 --> 0:24:14.879 more like six hundred billion Australian and to many voters, 0:24:15.720 --> 0:24:19.080 they saw this as as a strategy that would have 0:24:19.160 --> 0:24:23.800 extended the lives of existing coal fired power plants that 0:24:24.040 --> 0:24:28.720 not only have a negative climate impact, but are expensive, inefficient, 0:24:30.040 --> 0:24:34.560 you know, and would have required potentially regional or national 0:24:34.640 --> 0:24:38.080 avent government subsidies to keep them open. And an additional problem, 0:24:38.160 --> 0:24:41.240 of course is that Australia it isn't even legal to 0:24:41.320 --> 0:24:44.119 have nuclear power at this point. There are federal bands 0:24:44.160 --> 0:24:47.480 in place on having nuclear power stations. 0:24:47.880 --> 0:24:51.440 This time around, between January and April, there were massive 0:24:51.440 --> 0:24:54.800 floods in Queensland, in the state that is known for 0:24:55.040 --> 0:24:56.160 mining a lot of coal. 0:24:56.640 --> 0:24:59.000 Authority to say people were stuck on the roofs of 0:24:59.040 --> 0:25:02.919 their homes as rising waters cut off entire areas. And 0:25:02.960 --> 0:25:04.520 if that wasn't enough, thing we can show you a 0:25:04.600 --> 0:25:07.760 crocodile seen swimming in a storm drain. This is in 0:25:07.800 --> 0:25:09.680 the town of Ingham, ser. 0:25:09.800 --> 0:25:13.879 The area that covered was larger than Germany and France combined. 0:25:14.560 --> 0:25:18.399 Do you think that these natural disasters, just given the 0:25:18.440 --> 0:25:22.040 size of Australia and the extremities with which it's being felt, 0:25:22.880 --> 0:25:27.399 will have an impact on people wanting to support climate 0:25:27.400 --> 0:25:31.000 policies in the future or is it now economics first 0:25:31.040 --> 0:25:32.640 and real see about climate later. 0:25:33.119 --> 0:25:36.199