1 00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:05,520 Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I'm akshatarati. This week climate elections two 2 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:22,760 Speaker 1: point zero. Australia, the land of flood whites, beautiful corals 3 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 1: and ridiculously poisonous animals, just had an election, and like 4 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: Canada's election last week, it produced a surprise result. Ladies, 5 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: crime pals got the nine my majority, Live, government, promise 6 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 1: and deliberate. Since Trump returned to the White House, the 7 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: Australian electorate has swung away from the center right Liberal 8 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: Party and toward the incumbent centre left Labor Party. The 9 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: swing has been large enough that Labor, led by Prime 10 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: Minister Anthony Albanesi, now has a large majority in the 11 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: Lower House. Just a few months ago, Labor was projected 12 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 1: to lose seats. And it's worth understanding what happened in 13 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: the Australian election because what happens in Australia matters to 14 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 1: the world. Australia is the world's largest exporter of coal 15 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: and one of the largest exporters of gas, but it 16 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: also has abundant sun and wind, and so it is 17 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 1: a prime location to build renewables. It is also the 18 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:28,759 Speaker 1: world's largest producer of iron and aluminum ores, as well 19 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:31,319 Speaker 1: as the biggest exporter of lithium and other rare earth 20 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: metals that are crucial for battery manufacturing and other green technologies. 21 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: So which resources Australian politicians choose to exploit will shape 22 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:46,399 Speaker 1: global emissions. Australia is also hoping to host COP thirty one, 23 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: the annual United Nations Climate Summit, in twenty twenty six, 24 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: and we know what happens at Corp also shapes global emissions. 25 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: Labor Party first came to power in twenty twenty two 26 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: in what was hailed as a climate election, not just 27 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: because it pushed out politicians that were opposed to climate action, 28 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: but also because it saw the rise of independent candidates 29 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 1: and a move away from the two party system. The 30 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: Greens and especially the so called Teal Independence were voted 31 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:19,959 Speaker 1: in because they had a strong climate agenda, and that's 32 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,640 Speaker 1: one reason why the Labor Party under Albanesi was able 33 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 1: to pass Australia's first climate law in over a decade 34 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: back in twenty twenty two. So what happens next? How 35 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: do the next three years under Albanesi play out for 36 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 1: Australia's emissions? Is the country caught between a rock and 37 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: a hard place. Given the trade wars and given its 38 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: dependence on the US and China, and are the repeated 39 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 1: fires and floods reshaping the climate debate. To unpack it all, 40 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: we're joined by David Stringer, Bloomberg Greens Managing editor in Asia, 41 00:02:54,400 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: who was based in Melbourne. They welcome to the show. 42 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 2: Thanks, Echa, glad to be here. 43 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: So last week we had the Canadian election and a 44 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: wave of anti US sentiment helped Mark Carney and his 45 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 1: Liberal Party in Canada to victory. This week we had 46 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:18,360 Speaker 1: the Australian election, which even though all the votes haven't 47 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,959 Speaker 1: been counted, we can be quite certain that Anthony Albanesi 48 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 1: and his Labor Party are going to hold the majority 49 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 1: of the parliament and Anthony Albanesi will be the Prime 50 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 1: minister now. In both elections, the leaders of the opposition 51 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: party who aligned with Trump, so Pierre Poliev in Canada 52 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 1: and Peter Dutton in Australia lost their seats in the parliament. 53 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: So Trump is proving to be quite the gift for 54 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 1: left of center politicians. Huh. 55 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 2: Well, as you said, the final votes are still being 56 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: counted as of Tuesday evening in Australia, but the result 57 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 2: is completely beyond diet. This was a real landslide electoral 58 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 2: victory for Antony Albanesi and is Labor Party, and just 59 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 2: one caveat from the top about names, the Labor Party 60 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 2: in Australia is a sort of political brethren akin to 61 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 2: the Liberal Party of Canada, rather than the Liberal Party 62 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 2: here being equivalent to its opposite number in Canada. But Albanzi, 63 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 2: He's really had a commanding victory and that certainly confounded expectations. 64 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:27,559 Speaker 2: I think going into Saturday's election there was a sense 65 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 2: that he may have to rely on the support of 66 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 2: potentially Australian Green Party, potentially independent lawmakers to get his 67 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 2: policies through. That's not been the case, I think in 68 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 2: terms of the influence of Trump. Quite clearly, for Mark 69 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 2: Karney and for Canada, we saw at least a very 70 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 2: real perceived threat to sovereignty from Trump's administration. It was 71 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 2: a very visceral part of that campaign for Australia, less 72 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:59,679 Speaker 2: so the direct impact of Trump. Sure, exporters really don't 73 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 2: like this, the idea of tariff's. You know, the majority 74 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 2: of Australian exports are subject to that ten percent baseline. 75 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,799 Speaker 2: There are some products, you know, subject to a higher Levey. 76 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 2: But what we did see is some adopting of that 77 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 2: Maga type rhetoric, you know, rather than focusing on the 78 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 2: policy platform, and they did have one, you know, to 79 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 2: address the economy, to address housing. What we saw from 80 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,919 Speaker 2: Peter Dutton's Liberal Party is a bit more of a 81 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:26,479 Speaker 2: focus on culture war issues, you know, and we even 82 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:30,480 Speaker 2: had some calls for Australia's own version of Doge. So 83 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 2: certainly that rhetoric wasn't a help. Not only did the 84 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:38,359 Speaker 2: Liberal Party lose, Peter Dutton himself was booted out of office. 85 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: And Australia has a three year election cycle. In the 86 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two election, which we covered on the podcast, 87 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 1: we had both a Green Party member and an independent 88 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 1: joined the podcast. It was labeled the Climate election this 89 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: time around. In his victory speech this weekend, Prime Minister 90 00:05:55,000 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 1: Anthony Albanesi vowed to govern for all Australians, including for 91 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: as he said. 92 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:07,799 Speaker 2: Every Australian who knows that climate change is a challenge 93 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 2: we must act. 94 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 3: Together to made for their future around bar. 95 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 2: And knows the fact that renewable energy is an opportunity. 96 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 2: We must work together the seas to a future. 97 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: Out with that in the weekly speech, was climate still 98 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: a big issue in this election? 99 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 2: The truth is no, in this election it wasn't. And 100 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 2: as you've said, you know, and as the podcast covered 101 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two, climate has been a really large issue. 102 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 2: It's hard to overstate how divisive climate and energy policy 103 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 2: has been over the past decade two decades in Australia 104 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,280 Speaker 2: and how important it's been to election results. Even if 105 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 2: we think back to twenty thirteen, that was my first 106 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 2: election here after moving to Australia, the key issue really 107 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 2: was carbon pricing. Then Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott. He 108 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:07,280 Speaker 2: campaigned on repealing a carbon price one office and ultimately 109 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 2: carried out that policy. Twenty twenty two, the last national election, 110 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 2: the forefront of voters' minds was still the twenty nineteen 111 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 2: twenty twenty bush fires, the wildfires that killed more than 112 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 2: thirty people and that burned an area about half the 113 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 2: size of Canada. The fact that the then Liberal Party 114 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 2: coalition government was seen as doing too little in terms 115 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 2: of an emissions reduction was seen as being a negative 116 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 2: force in global climate diplomacy and also dismissive of technologies 117 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 2: like electric vehicles. That was front and center of that campaign. 118 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 2: This time around, climate has taken a huge backseat housing, 119 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 2: cost of living, inflation, interest rates, they've been the key issues, 120 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 2: and in truth, even though Anthony Albanesi's Labor Party is 121 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 2: seen as much more committee, it's a climate action, in reality, 122 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 2: we've seen one or two new policies outlined during the campaign, 123 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 2: one of them a very modest proposal to support household 124 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 2: batteries with subsidies. 125 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: This is something we've seen in elections all around the 126 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 1: world following the pandemic, that economic issues have taken precedence. 127 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 1: And yet when Albinizi did become Prime Minister in twenty 128 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 1: twenty two, because of this momentum that was there for climate, 129 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:32,080 Speaker 1: he did get to pass a major climate legislation, a 130 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 1: first in a decade, with a target to reduce Australia's 131 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 1: emissions by forty three percent by twenty thirty relative to 132 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 1: two thousand and five levels and increase renewables to eighty 133 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: two percent of electricity by twenty thirty. Do we see 134 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:50,200 Speaker 1: Australia's push towards green energy as something that helps the 135 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:53,839 Speaker 1: economy and is that something that Labor Party uses as 136 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 1: a way to push forward its goals because it is 137 00:08:56,520 --> 00:09:00,559 Speaker 1: clearly not on track. Even today, forty seven percent of 138 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,439 Speaker 1: Australia's electricity comes from coal. 139 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 2: I think you're right to identify a couple of things there, 140 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:10,200 Speaker 2: and even the passage in that victory speech on Saturday 141 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 2: night ties some of those threads together. I was really 142 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 2: struck listening to his speech that climate merited only a 143 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 2: small mention, but when it did and we heard him 144 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 2: there tie the desire to increase the share of renewables 145 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:26,679 Speaker 2: in Australia's energy mix. He tied it to as an 146 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 2: economic driver, and his government has really encouraged Australians to 147 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 2: see renewables and to see investment in renewables as a positive, 148 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:40,080 Speaker 2: forceful job creation, to see as a necessary renewal of 149 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 2: communities that are currently dependent on fossil fuels, whether that's 150 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 2: extraction of coal, whether that's gas production, or whether that's 151 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 2: power plants. It's clear that coal is still really crucial 152 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 2: to Australia's energy mix, but that is slowly, albeit very 153 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:01,959 Speaker 2: slowly changing. We are seeing giant coal fired power plants 154 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 2: gradually be retired, and in fact that will continue and 155 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 2: will accelerate over the next decade decade and a half. 156 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 2: All of that means that if we look at those 157 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:18,200 Speaker 2: emissions targets, Australia is arguably on track to meet its 158 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 2: twenty thirty goals. So if we look at the most 159 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 2: recent data, that's emissions in the year through to the 160 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 2: March twenty twenty four, emissions were twenty eight point two 161 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 2: percent below that two thousand and five baseline. The majority 162 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 2: of analysts thinks that puts Australia on a track to 163 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 2: meet that forty three percent number. Now we can argue 164 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:43,280 Speaker 2: about whether that target itself is ambitious enough, and I 165 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 2: think plenty of people would say it isn't. But what 166 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 2: we do know is the policies that are in place 167 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 2: and that will continue should allow Australia to achieve that number. 168 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 2: The harder task is hitting that renewable energy goal. Getting 169 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 2: to that eighty two percent of electricity generation coming from 170 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 2: clean sources. That will require a significant ramp up of 171 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:12,200 Speaker 2: deployment of solar and wind, and really crucially, it involves 172 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:17,360 Speaker 2: billions and billions more investment into the energy system in Australia, 173 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 2: not only in generation capacity but also in grids, in infrastructure. 174 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 2: Whether the government can achieve that is a far more 175 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 2: difficult question to address. 176 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: So on this show we've talked a bunch about the 177 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: electricity sector. We're going to do a series about electrification 178 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: and the bottlenext to electrification very soon. But we've also 179 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: noted that the decarbonization of electricity relative to other sectors 180 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 1: is an easier problem. What about the other sectors in 181 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 1: the economy, What about transport, what about industry? How is 182 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,319 Speaker 1: the country doing now and does the Albanese government have 183 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 1: policies to reduce emissions from those sectors. 184 00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 2: It does, and it's right to point to other parts 185 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 2: of the economy. Emissions from the electricity sector and account 186 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:09,079 Speaker 2: for roughly a third of the total. Transport is another 187 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 2: huge issue for Australia to tackle. Twenty two percent there 188 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:17,840 Speaker 2: thereabouts of emissions are related to transport, you know, and 189 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 2: simply haven't seen the kind of improvements in that sector 190 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 2: that other nations have. Albanese's government has implemented new vehicle 191 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 2: efficiency standards and they will continue to ratch it up 192 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 2: and the hope for the government is that helps to 193 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 2: drive further adoption of electric vehicles. That should help in 194 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 2: the passenger vehicle segment. That should see Australia, you know, 195 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 2: begin to recover some ground. But there are bigger questions 196 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 2: and more difficult questions when it gets to trucks, trailers, 197 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 2: and then think about those giant, enormous vehicles we see 198 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 2: on mind sights in parts of Australia. You know, we've 199 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 2: seen some trials of electrification, some use of trials of 200 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 2: hydro gen as a fuel source. Cracking those kind of 201 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 2: emissions is also vital to Australia's trajectory. 202 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: You know, Australia doesn't have much of a car sector 203 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:11,320 Speaker 1: and so most of its cars are imported. Now tell me, 204 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 1: commuting into work today, how many buids did you spot? 205 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 2: This makes me laughuck Suat because this is something I 206 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 2: literally have done on a number of occasions on my cycle, 207 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 2: a thirty minute cycle into the Bloomberg office here in 208 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,439 Speaker 2: the center of Melbourne. I have in the past off 209 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 2: and counted byds and I did it precisely because it 210 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 2: was so noticeable. In twenty twenty two we saw the 211 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 2: Atto three, one of Byde's most popular sort of small 212 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 2: suv models. We saw that slowly introduced to Australia. My 213 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 2: latest favorite thing is to look for the numbers of 214 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 2: BYD sharks. Now that is the sort of flatbed truck 215 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 2: or a ute as we call it here in Australia, 216 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 2: the most popular vehicle category in Australia. And finally, there 217 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 2: is a lower emission in this case BYD's hybrid option. 218 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 2: For that, I think I saw my first BYD shark 219 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,840 Speaker 2: three or four weeks ago, and now I'm seeing them 220 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 2: probably every other day. They're really proliferating in the way 221 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 2: that other BYD models had in the past couple of years. 222 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 2: And of course still Tesla's remain ubiquous as well. So 223 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 2: that said, we know from the data that actually it's 224 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 2: only one in every ten new car sales in Australia 225 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 2: that's either electric or a hybrid. 226 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: On the industrial side and on the energy side, the 227 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 1: energy exporting side, especially given how much Australia exports call 228 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 1: and gas to the world. We have seen the Albanesi 229 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: government come under criticism for approving new gas fields, for 230 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 1: expanding several existing coal mines. Is there going to be 231 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: any change in strategy in this coming term? Given climate 232 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 1: wasn't really a big to driving this election, It's. 233 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 2: Really hard to see an impetus for Albanesi to change 234 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 2: the approach that he and his government have had in 235 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 2: their first term. You know, we did have a party, 236 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 2: the Australian Greens, at this election that campaigned on a 237 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 2: platform that advocated for no new oil and gas approvals. 238 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 2: Votes are still being encountered, but the Greens have had 239 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 2: a really poor election, you know thus far. It's that 240 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 2: lack of impetus from seemingly from voters that will probably 241 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 2: you know, give Albanesi some comfort in his current position. 242 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 2: As you said, his government has approved new coal mines 243 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 2: and expansions, also new gas fields, and there's been a 244 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 2: lot of support for those traditional fossil fuel extraction and 245 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 2: exporting industries. And don't forget they generate a significant proportion 246 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 2: of export earnings for Australia. There is a really interesting 247 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 2: test case that will come up very early in this 248 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 2: new term. There is an approval that needs to be 249 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 2: considered by the government to extend the lifespan of a 250 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 2: facility called the Northwest Shelf. It's Australia's oldest and largest 251 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 2: liquefied natural gas export facility. It's been coming towards the 252 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 2: end of its current approved tenure. Albanesi's government has to 253 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 2: decide whether to give it a reprieve and to allow 254 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 2: it to continue to operate in its current form. That 255 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 2: could be a real lightning rod moment for this second 256 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 2: term of the Albanese government. It'll really define how do 257 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 2: they view gas and coal. And I'll be honest, you 258 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 2: know what we've seen in the past few years is 259 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 2: you know, them talk a lot about the not only 260 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 2: export earnings, but the numbers of jobs they see is 261 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 2: directly supported, particularly by that gas industry. You know, in 262 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 2: Albanesi's Resources Minister Madeline King, she's even talked about seeing 263 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 2: gas as an important energy source through to twenty fifty 264 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 2: and beyond. 265 00:16:56,280 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 1: While this is happening, there is the trade war that 266 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,760 Speaker 1: is being sparked by Donald Trump in the US. Australia 267 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:06,159 Speaker 1: has a ten percent tariff. Maybe it goes away. We 268 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: don't know what's happening with tariff policies these days and 269 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,919 Speaker 1: how frequently they change. But for Australia, the biggest trading 270 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:16,160 Speaker 1: partner is China, and we know the US is going 271 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: really hard after China with one hundred percent plus tariffs 272 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: on the country. So if as a result of what's 273 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: going to happen between the US and China, China starts 274 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 1: slowing down. Does that have a serious impact on the 275 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:36,440 Speaker 1: Australian economy as well? Given how much Australia exports to China. 276 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,680 Speaker 2: Australia's in a really difficult position. Not on the one 277 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 2: hand sort of diplomatic security cultural partner in the US, 278 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 2: and on the other hand it's biggest trading partner China. 279 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 2: You know, Australia's economy has for so many decades prospered 280 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 2: from its ability to export iron or the biggest export 281 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:03,160 Speaker 2: earner in Australia to China, to fuel China's steel industry. 282 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:07,639 Speaker 2: It's been a major contributor of GDP and you know, 283 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 2: and we've seen huge companies here, BHP, the world's biggest minor, 284 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:15,480 Speaker 2: others like Rio Tinto. They've all benefited from that trade 285 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 2: in the midst of a property crisis, in the midst 286 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 2: of a deceleration of its economy. That's already having an 287 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:28,199 Speaker 2: impact now, you know, for Albanese's government and for a 288 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,880 Speaker 2: lot of that resources sector. There's also been a lot 289 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,919 Speaker 2: of optimism in their ability to export other raw materials, 290 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 2: other minerals to China. You know, Australia has been a 291 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:42,399 Speaker 2: huge supplier of lithium, raw materials. It also is an 292 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 2: exporture of nickel, of manganese, of all of the kinds 293 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,719 Speaker 2: of metals and raw materials that are required for batteries, 294 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 2: for lots of the kind of clean energy supply chains 295 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 2: that China dominates. The risk as you've identified there is 296 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 2: what happens is Donald Trump and his administration put pressure 297 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:07,439 Speaker 2: on Australia to alter its relationship with China. We saw 298 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 2: in the wake of COVID China removed its imports of 299 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:18,400 Speaker 2: a whole list of Australian products, coal, crayfish, wine, devastating 300 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,440 Speaker 2: lots of those industries. So China knows it does have 301 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:27,879 Speaker 2: this ability to have a huge influence on the Australian economy. 302 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:32,080 Speaker 2: And so yeah, Albanezi finds himself in what is a 303 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 2: very unenviable position, caught between two large competing superpowers, and. 304 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,879 Speaker 1: China chose to restrict those imports from Australia as a 305 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 1: result of the politics around COVID and where did the 306 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: virus come from? Now you have a different challenge in 307 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 1: Donald Trump and the White House. But look, Donald Trump 308 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 1: is also interested in rare earth minerals. In critical minerals 309 00:19:56,760 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 1: in lithium, in nickel are there any conversations the trade 310 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 1: level that you know that are happening right now with 311 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 1: the US government to look at whether the US is 312 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 1: ready to import these critical minerals from Australia instead. 313 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:14,439 Speaker 2: For a number of years, these conversations have been ongoing, 314 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,160 Speaker 2: you know, in a in a previous role, I wrote 315 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 2: predominantly about the mining sector, and I have been in 316 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 2: those rooms, you know, with those US trade representatives and 317 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 2: a group of whether it's you know, owners of rare 318 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 2: earth projects who are seeking funding to develop those minds, 319 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 2: you know, whether it's nickel producers. You know, this is 320 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 2: a new thing. You know, Australian developers of mining projects 321 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 2: have been you know, desperately seeking funding from the US 322 00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:49,159 Speaker 2: precisely because of this ongoing desire to reduce reliance on 323 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 2: China's supply chains. And no, I'm not aware of any 324 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 2: current and existing conversations that are going on, but obviously, 325 00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:00,680 Speaker 2: you know, under the Biden administration there was a emphasis 326 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,159 Speaker 2: on French shoring in the critical mineral space. Australia was 327 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,480 Speaker 2: a big part of that. I can only imagine that 328 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:10,160 Speaker 2: those conversations continue with the Trump White House, and it's 329 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 2: relatively reasonable, I think to expect that, you know, as in, 330 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,919 Speaker 2: if there are any of those conversations around tariffs, that 331 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 2: critical minerals will become part of that conversation for the 332 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 2: Trump White House, I think very interesting. One thing we 333 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:26,959 Speaker 2: have seen in the past few weeks and months from 334 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,679 Speaker 2: the Albanize government is, you know, is a commitment to 335 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 2: develop a strategic reserve of critical minerals. Having that stockpile 336 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,880 Speaker 2: potentially gives them some leverage if there are those conversations 337 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 2: around tariffs, around the kind of trading relationship that Australia 338 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 2: has with the US, maybe that is, you know, something 339 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 2: that they can potentially leverage. 340 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 1: We'll be back with more of my conversation with David 341 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 1: Stringer after the shortbreak. And Hey, if you're enjoying this episode, 342 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,200 Speaker 1: please rate and review Zero on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 343 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:01,680 Speaker 3: You have. 344 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: Feedback really matters and helps new listeners discover the show. 345 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:05,919 Speaker 2: Thank you. 346 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 1: It's worth noting, though, that this election played out a 347 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 1: little differently from the previous elections I've watched in Australia, 348 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 1: where the opposition party in the Liberals and the coalition 349 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:31,440 Speaker 1: partner typically are quite climate denialist and they want nothing 350 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 1: to do with climate policy. This time around, they weren't 351 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,959 Speaker 1: really pushing against the net zero target that Australia has. 352 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,639 Speaker 1: Actually they were embracing it. They even had a plan 353 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 1: to build a whole lot of nuclear power plants. 354 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 4: And today we announce seven locations that we have looked 355 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 4: at in great detail over a long period of time 356 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 4: that can host nuclear sites. 357 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:59,479 Speaker 1: Dutton's plan, as far as I could see, was really 358 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:04,240 Speaker 1: quite a expensive and he got really badly hit in 359 00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:08,360 Speaker 1: the campaign by coming up with this plan. So given that, 360 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 1: and given the fact that there are currently non nuclear 361 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 1: power plants in Australia, do you think there is any 362 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 1: future for nuclear power in Australia anymore? 363 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 2: It seems really unlikely that the idea of developing a 364 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 2: nuclear power industry from scratch is something that is feasible. 365 00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 3: Now. 366 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:29,200 Speaker 2: I get the impression that the rejection of that idea 367 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 2: and policy wasn't necessarily that Australian voters were opposed to 368 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 2: the idea of nuclear energy. I think the thing that 369 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 2: people rejected in this election in Australia was the was 370 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 2: the cost and the timeline and the costings were very contentious. 371 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,679 Speaker 2: Dutton's party insisted that this plan, which would have been 372 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 2: to develop seven nuclear reactors, seven nuclear power sites, some 373 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,159 Speaker 2: of them small modular reactors, you know, a technology that 374 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:02,119 Speaker 2: isn't something that is that is commercially available right now. 375 00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 2: The costing that it would have been a minimum of 376 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 2: around one hundred and sixteen billion Australian dollars that plant 377 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 2: a minimum. The Labor Party countered with a figure of 378 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 2: more like six hundred billion Australian and to many voters, 379 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 2: they saw this as as a strategy that would have 380 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 2: extended the lives of existing coal fired power plants that 381 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 2: not only have a negative climate impact, but are expensive, inefficient, 382 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 2: you know, and would have required potentially regional or national 383 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 2: avent government subsidies to keep them open. And an additional problem, 384 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 2: of course is that Australia it isn't even legal to 385 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,119 Speaker 2: have nuclear power at this point. There are federal bands 386 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 2: in place on having nuclear power stations. 387 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,440 Speaker 1: This time around, between January and April, there were massive 388 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 1: floods in Queensland, in the state that is known for 389 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:56,160 Speaker 1: mining a lot of coal. 390 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 3: Authority to say people were stuck on the roofs of 391 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,919 Speaker 3: their homes as rising waters cut off entire areas. And 392 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 3: if that wasn't enough, thing we can show you a 393 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:07,760 Speaker 3: crocodile seen swimming in a storm drain. This is in 394 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:09,680 Speaker 3: the town of Ingham, ser. 395 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 1: The area that covered was larger than Germany and France combined. 396 00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 1: Do you think that these natural disasters, just given the 397 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 1: size of Australia and the extremities with which it's being felt, 398 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 1: will have an impact on people wanting to support climate 399 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 1: policies in the future or is it now economics first 400 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:32,640 Speaker 1: and real see about climate later. 401 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,199 Speaker 2: It really feels like the latter at this point. And 402 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:40,240 Speaker 2: as you say, there have been some quite significant natural 403 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 2: disaster events in the opening months of the year. You 404 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:48,199 Speaker 2: mentioned those huge flooding in the west of Queensland. You know, 405 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:52,359 Speaker 2: we also had Cyclone Alfred, which happened in March. The 406 00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 2: impact of that cyclone even impacted the date of the election. 407 00:25:56,280 --> 00:26:00,119 Speaker 2: You know, Albanesi had intended to call the election, but 408 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 2: instead was had to defer because he and his government 409 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,679 Speaker 2: were busy dealing with the impact of that specific, you 410 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,480 Speaker 2: know event. And even in the past few days, you know, 411 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,520 Speaker 2: we've we've we've seen data, government data that showed, you know, 412 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 2: household spending declined as a result of it. You know, 413 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 2: we we saw millions of you know, insurers talk about 414 00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 2: millions of losses, significant events, and yet we didn't see 415 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:30,159 Speaker 2: them discussed in the election campaign. We've seen although this 416 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 2: this wildfire bushfire as we call it here season, you know, 417 00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:38,800 Speaker 2: was was relatively benign compared to other recent seasons, we 418 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:45,359 Speaker 2: still saw significant catastrophic fires. Again, they weren't part of 419 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:49,679 Speaker 2: the campaign, they weren't necessarily discussed. Ultimately, people won't be 420 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 2: inured to the impact of these events, I think, you know, 421 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,879 Speaker 2: and particularly as we see attribution of these events to 422 00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 2: climate change, I think we'll see policymakers take up that. 423 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,480 Speaker 1: Climate policies might not be popular these days. But the 424 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:08,520 Speaker 1: climate calendar continues, and there is one coming up later 425 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 1: in Brazil COP thirty, and countries are supposed to submit 426 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: their plans for twenty thirty five with updated higher ambition. 427 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,720 Speaker 1: In Australia, which is supposed to submit its plans by February, 428 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:24,399 Speaker 1: deferred that and we are expecting it to come idly 429 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,840 Speaker 1: before COP thirty. Do we have any sense of when 430 00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,879 Speaker 1: it'll come and whether it will show the ambition that 431 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:31,520 Speaker 1: the world needs. 432 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,439 Speaker 2: In honest truth, we don't at this stage. You know, 433 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,600 Speaker 2: it was as you say, it was deferred really for 434 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:40,440 Speaker 2: two reasons. One, there was an election pending, a lot 435 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:45,119 Speaker 2: of attention was focused on campaigning, and also there was 436 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,200 Speaker 2: a realistic proposition that had there been a change in government, 437 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 2: we would have seen a much radically different, new nationally 438 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,680 Speaker 2: determined contribution. And in fact, Dutton's party had talked about 439 00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:02,159 Speaker 2: potentially rolling back the targets or for twenty thirty Never mind, 440 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:03,920 Speaker 2: you know the twenty thirty five. 441 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,520 Speaker 1: But look, there is another cop that comes after. Cop 442 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,399 Speaker 1: thirty was just Cop thirty one, And before the election 443 00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:14,560 Speaker 1: we knew that Anthony Albanzi wanted to host Cop thirty 444 00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:19,479 Speaker 1: one in Australia, even going as far as noting that 445 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,880 Speaker 1: Adelaide might be the location where it will be held. 446 00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:27,159 Speaker 1: And typically countries wanting to host cops have to show 447 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 1: that they have the ambition, that they have the desire 448 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:34,080 Speaker 1: to support the Paris Agreement. Would that do you think 449 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 1: matter in the targets that Australia sets out this year? 450 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,600 Speaker 2: Oh, I'm absolutely you know, I mean, having won one 451 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 2: election and convinced the Australian voters to return him to office, 452 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:47,840 Speaker 2: you know, Albanese's sort of next campaign as well. He's 453 00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 2: got to persuade a group of climate diplomats, you know, 454 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 2: in the rotating blocks within the COPS structure. He's now 455 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 2: facing the task to convince them that it's Australia and 456 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:00,640 Speaker 2: not Turkey that ought to be the host of the 457 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six UN Climate Conference COP thirty one. So 458 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 2: part of that clearly will need to be showing greater 459 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,960 Speaker 2: ambition and getting his homework, getting that next NDC in 460 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 2: as soon as possible to the UN. Certainly we expect 461 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 2: that to be launched before the bellum COP. And it's 462 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 2: I think it's fair to assume, you know, given the 463 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 2: direction of travel we've seen from this government, that it 464 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:29,440 Speaker 2: will set a more ambitious target. You know, as we've discussed, 465 00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:35,120 Speaker 2: there are areas of Australia's economy where climate policy is developing. Transport, 466 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 2: industrial emissions, you know, really importantly, you know, there is 467 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,080 Speaker 2: a policy in place that covers some of the biggest 468 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 2: polluting facilities, industrial facilities in Australia. The targets for them 469 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:50,160 Speaker 2: to cut emissions continue to ratchet up and we'll see 470 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 2: that kind of contribution. So I think it's fair to 471 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:57,200 Speaker 2: assume a more ambitious new plan. It's a separate question 472 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,240 Speaker 2: of whether all of that will be sufficient to to 473 00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:04,040 Speaker 2: persuade climate diplomats of Australia's credentials. 474 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,280 Speaker 1: It's been a conversation that's been sort of dour and 475 00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 1: climate policies, and I think we are on the upswing here, 476 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 1: so let's keep on that upswing. And you know, of 477 00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,880 Speaker 1: course you're based in Melbourne, You're based in Australia, but 478 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:21,600 Speaker 1: you look over our Asian coverage for bloombergrain, are there 479 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:26,600 Speaker 1: places outside of Australia where you are seeing green shoots 480 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:32,320 Speaker 1: that show why climate policies might endure or climate action 481 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:33,840 Speaker 1: might be strengthened. 482 00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:37,080 Speaker 2: I think there are, and that is really critical because, 483 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,920 Speaker 2: as we know, Asia as a region accounts for more 484 00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 2: than half of total global greenhouse gas emissions, and so 485 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:50,400 Speaker 2: what happens in Asia is utterly critical to the trajectory 486 00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:55,360 Speaker 2: of planetary warming. We can look at governments in places 487 00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:59,880 Speaker 2: like the Philippines or Malaysia where there's really interesting work 488 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 2: going on to advance policies that are accommodating greater investment 489 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 2: in renewable energy. There's a huge amount of activity across 490 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 2: the region to catalyze and improve on emissions trading systems 491 00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 2: you know, there's a enormous amount of interest you know, 492 00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 2: in the government to government trading of common credits too, 493 00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:23,360 Speaker 2: and you know, we should see in the coming months 494 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:27,400 Speaker 2: Indonesia take some significant steps there. But the two big 495 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 2: economies that I've spent most time, I guess thinking about 496 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:36,000 Speaker 2: in this region are China and India, huge contributors to 497 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 2: global emissions. And late last month, we saw China's President Jijiping, 498 00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 2: you know, address a virtual conference of fellow global leaders 499 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 2: to talk about climate policies, to talk about the kind 500 00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 2: of commitments they're going to be needed at COP thirty 501 00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:56,000 Speaker 2: in Brazil, and that was really significant to me. The 502 00:31:56,080 --> 00:32:01,040 Speaker 2: fact that we had President Ji committing China to more 503 00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 2: ambitious emissions reduction, committing the country to target not just 504 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 2: carbon dioxide emissions but all greenhouse gas emissions hugely significant 505 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:17,840 Speaker 2: because China's total climate footprint, its contribution of gases outside 506 00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:21,240 Speaker 2: of carbon dioxide is absolutely mammoth, you know, actually bigger 507 00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:26,960 Speaker 2: than the majority of other countries' total emissions. Very significant 508 00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:31,280 Speaker 2: intervention from g and that suggests that China will continue 509 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 2: to accelerate its development of climate policy. Clearly, as we know, 510 00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 2: there is a lot of work to do. Yes, they 511 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:44,680 Speaker 2: have had this remarkable, scarcely believable adoption of renewable energy, 512 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:50,720 Speaker 2: but it hasn't necessarily translated into genuine decarbonization of their 513 00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:54,960 Speaker 2: power sector because energy consumption continues to rise. The rhetoric 514 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:58,320 Speaker 2: from g some of the policy development we're seeing I 515 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 2: think you know does sugges yes, that we're going to 516 00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 2: start to see genuine inroads made by China on its 517 00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 2: emissions profile. When it comes to India, we're not yet 518 00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,840 Speaker 2: seeing the same policy settings. It's a country that still has, 519 00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 2: as you know, as we both know, as we both 520 00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:20,320 Speaker 2: reported on a huge task ahead in terms of decarbonization. Yes, 521 00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,960 Speaker 2: there are green shoots in the region, but there's still 522 00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:24,640 Speaker 2: a lot of work to do, and there's still big 523 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,600 Speaker 2: economies with huge tasks ahead of them. 524 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,920 Speaker 1: We've had analysts looking at Chinese emissions and recognizing that 525 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 1: perhaps they may have peaked as of twenty twenty four, 526 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,080 Speaker 1: and given the economic rejectory, they might just prove to 527 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:42,120 Speaker 1: be right. But there is one aspect of what's happening 528 00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,240 Speaker 1: in the world, especially from the Asian perspective, that I 529 00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:46,680 Speaker 1: want to get your view on, which is that a 530 00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:50,160 Speaker 1: lot of the trade policies, at least in rhetoric, are 531 00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:55,800 Speaker 1: about stopping China dumping cheap stuff into America or into 532 00:33:55,920 --> 00:34:01,320 Speaker 1: Europe because Europe wants its own solar manufacturing capacity and 533 00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:06,440 Speaker 1: Europe wants its own electric vehicle manufacturing capacity. But if 534 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,319 Speaker 1: that is the garb under which these trade policies are 535 00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:12,360 Speaker 1: being deployed, there are tons of other countries in the 536 00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,320 Speaker 1: world who do not want to build their own auto 537 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,319 Speaker 1: manufacturing sector, or do not want to build their own 538 00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:22,560 Speaker 1: solar manufacturing sector. They could become real beneficiaries of this 539 00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,840 Speaker 1: cheap solar and evs that are sitting in China and 540 00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:29,879 Speaker 1: are not going to go anymore to the US or 541 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:33,040 Speaker 1: even to Europe, but might end up in African countries, 542 00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:36,000 Speaker 1: might end up in South American countries, might end up 543 00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:39,959 Speaker 1: in Australia, as we've seen with the bids. So those 544 00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:43,960 Speaker 1: green shoots could really go and have an impact elsewhere. 545 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:47,759 Speaker 2: Absolutely, and I think when it comes to electric vehicles, 546 00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:52,280 Speaker 2: when it comes to green clean energy equipment, you're absolutely 547 00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,560 Speaker 2: right there is an opportunity there. I think back to 548 00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,840 Speaker 2: comments last year from BYD and its executives. You know, 549 00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,719 Speaker 2: they were asked about the problem that they face with 550 00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,240 Speaker 2: you know, not really being able to sell in the US. 551 00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 2: And their response is it doesn't trouble us. There are 552 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:11,240 Speaker 2: so many other markets for them to exploit and to target, 553 00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,839 Speaker 2: you know, whether it is Latin America, whether it is Europe, 554 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:19,600 Speaker 2: whether it is Australia, the same I'm sure will prove 555 00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 2: to be the case for solar sales or modular exporters. 556 00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,960 Speaker 2: Just look at some situations we've had, you know, even 557 00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:30,440 Speaker 2: last year, like suddenly a huge surprise in imports by 558 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,960 Speaker 2: Pakistan of solar equipment. You know, we've seen that some 559 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:37,000 Speaker 2: of the faster grown regions for adoption of solar places 560 00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:40,400 Speaker 2: in the Middle East. You know, there are dynamic markets 561 00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:45,680 Speaker 2: that China's dominant manufacturers will naturally gravitate towards. The truth is, 562 00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,279 Speaker 2: you know, exports to the US for many of those 563 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:52,239 Speaker 2: Chinese manufacturers haven't ever been huge. You know, they've only 564 00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,600 Speaker 2: ever accounted for small amounts of their exports, and so 565 00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:59,480 Speaker 2: there definitely is that happy sort of marriage of over capacity, 566 00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:03,680 Speaker 2: huge clot of manufacturing capacity, whether it's in solar and 567 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:08,319 Speaker 2: wind and EV batteries in evs, and then markets that 568 00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:11,839 Speaker 2: really stand to benefit from a lower cost of those 569 00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:15,160 Speaker 2: clean energy products so yeah, that absolutely could see that 570 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,920 Speaker 2: being a trend and a theme that we start to 571 00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,680 Speaker 2: see accelerate in the in the months and years ahead. 572 00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:28,840 Speaker 1: Thank you for listening to zero and now for the 573 00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 1: sound of the week. That's the sound of an EMU, 574 00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:42,560 Speaker 1: Australia's unofficial National Bird Proving Ones and for all that 575 00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:47,080 Speaker 1: birds really are just dinosaurs in cute clothing. If you 576 00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:48,920 Speaker 1: like this episode, please take a moment to rate and 577 00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,840 Speaker 1: review the show on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Share this 578 00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:55,280 Speaker 1: episode with a friend or with someone running for office. 579 00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,239 Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Oscar Boyd. Noomberg's head of 580 00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,320 Speaker 1: podcast is a Bauman and head of Talk is Brendan newnham. 581 00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,840 Speaker 1: Our theme music is composed by Wonderly Special Thanks to 582 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:11,040 Speaker 1: Somersadi Mosses Andim and Sherwan Wagner. I'm Akshatrati back soon.