WEBVTT - Israel at War After Unprecedented Intelligence Failure 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:05.720 This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:09.440 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.520 --> 0:00:13.680 global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:18.640 Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:22.800 Well, our next guest is former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, 0:00:22.840 --> 0:00:26.400 a retired CIA officer, and a retired US Marine reservist, 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:29.040 having served for two decades. It's both a commissioned and 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:31.920 enlisted Marine Carol. He's also the co founder of the 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:34.720 Lobo Institute. It's an organization that, in its own words, quote, 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:38.599 advises consults and teaches on current and future conflicts, how 0:00:38.600 --> 0:00:41.159 to end conflicts and prevent their recurrence. I not to 0:00:41.159 --> 0:00:42.640 help those who've been most effective. 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:45.200 Very pleased to have with us. Mick mulroy on Zoom 0:00:45.200 --> 0:00:48.200 from Montana. Mick, nice to have you here with Tim 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:50.920 and myself. So many questions I ran, what do they know? 0:00:51.240 --> 0:00:55.040 USA Toururhan, Russia maybe looking to distract, you know, the 0:00:55.080 --> 0:00:58.200 focus off Ukraine. There's so many things being floated China. 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:02.040 President g not addressing what happened in terms of the conflict. 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:04.319 If you were back at the Cia. What are the 0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:07.240 scenarios that you would be coming up with for President 0:01:07.319 --> 0:01:10.320 Biden and the US national security teams. 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:15.640 So good to be with you all. There's many issues 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:18.720 to be addressed. Of course, this was an intelligence failure, 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:22.720 predominantly by the Israelis, but also quite frankly by the 0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:25.840 United States and other regional actors, and that does have 0:01:25.880 --> 0:01:28.800 to be addressed, but it's not the most pressing right now. 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:32.319 We'd be talking about the hostages. We of course have 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:36.320 responsibility for American hostages. They are it looks like up 0:01:36.319 --> 0:01:39.120 to one hundred many of them who are at Gaza 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:42.680 right now. There are reports that they are in tunnels 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:46.640 and the tunnels are wired, so a traditional hostage rescue 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:50.800 would be exceptionally difficult. And I think we're going to 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:53.360 have to look at our partners in the region Egypt, 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:57.360 Katar that have some kind of leverage over Amas to 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:01.640 try to recover all the hostages, of course, including the Americans. 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.760 So that's one effort I think that we would need 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:07.280 to look at. The other effort we need to look 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:10.720 at is just how involved Iran was in this operation. 0:02:11.080 --> 0:02:14.760 There's many indicators it was a very complex operation. There 0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:21.240 was technical devices that brought down the communications in Israel. Obviously, 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:24.720 the weaponry and the equipment does indicate that Iran was involved. 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:27.400 There's also been reporting that they were involved. But I 0:02:27.400 --> 0:02:30.200 think the IC needs to make a determination of just 0:02:30.240 --> 0:02:32.760 what their level of involvement is because that would go 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:37.920 toward potentially freezing the six billion dollars that we just negotiated, 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:41.520 and then of course what to be done against Iran, 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:44.160 if anything, if they were directly responsible for this. 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:46.920 Well, let's start with the hostage as part of this, 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:50.960 because hostages have long been a part of I don't 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:52.840 want to say relations, but they've long been a part 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:57.480 of the skirmishes between Palestinians and Israelis, namely on the 0:02:57.480 --> 0:03:01.320 Palestinian side. But prisoner swaps have often heard, sometimes after 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:06.839 years of holding hostages. But one hundred and fifty hostages, Mick, 0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:12.120 this is a huge, huge number. What are the what 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:15.600 is Hamas looking for with holding these people hostage? 0:03:18.680 --> 0:03:21.440 It is definitely a huge number, and the complexity of 0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:25.360 that from a military toile recovery would be enormous on 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:28.400 top of all the other things I already mentioned. So 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:30.000 I think what are they trying to get from that? 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:32.600 They're probably going to use hostages as human shields. So 0:03:32.720 --> 0:03:35.000 every place that they think the Israelis are likely to 0:03:35.000 --> 0:03:38.720 strike and are striking right now, there may be a hostage. Unfortunately, 0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:42.480 in those locations they're going to use them for bargaining tools. 0:03:42.480 --> 0:03:45.800 They've already announced that they're going to start executing a 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:48.960 hostage every hour on the hour. That would put a 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:53.080 lot of pressure on Israel to mitigate what is coming, 0:03:53.120 --> 0:03:57.360 which is likely a ground invasion into Gaza. They're going 0:03:57.360 --> 0:04:00.280 to use them to try to recover their own that 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:04.920 are held inside Israel Hamas prisoners, for example, to try 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:07.760 to recover them. They're going to use them. Unfortunately, all 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:11.680 against the law of armed conflict in every international protocol. 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:15.280 Most of them are civilians, but obviously Hamas does not 0:04:15.680 --> 0:04:16.400 care about that. 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:17.360 Nick. 0:04:17.440 --> 0:04:20.240 I do wonder what you see as the biggest concern 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:22.599 and risk for the world right now as we watch this. 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:26.880 It's very easy, I think sometimes unfortunately for folks who 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:29.040 are not in it. We just talked with our Ethan Brawner, 0:04:29.040 --> 0:04:33.279 who is in Tel Aviv. He's our Israel Bureau chief 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:37.719 and so is hearing it, seeing it firsthand. But the 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:40.360 world has to be concerned about increasingly all of these 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:42.920 geopolitical events, whether it's Ukraine or what's going on in 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:45.080 Israel right now, what do you see is the biggest 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:45.919 risk right now? 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:51.800 So I think the biggest risk regarding this conflict is 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:56.000 that Iran decides to engage all of its proxies to 0:04:56.080 --> 0:04:59.080 come at every different angle into Israel. So if they 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:04.720 initiate Lebanese Heslo for example, or they just initiate themselves, 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:06.800 they have about one hundred and fifty thousand rockets and 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:10.880 missiles that they could launch into Israel, which would overwhelm 0:05:10.920 --> 0:05:14.640 any system, any air defense system, including the Iron Dobe. 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:17.760 And they also have militias in Syria. So if this happened, 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:20.120 I think that the United States would become more and 0:05:20.160 --> 0:05:23.640 more likely to get directly involved militarily as it could 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:27.680 overwhelm the IDEA and the security services in Israel, and 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:31.039 that could lead to a much broader regional war, potentially 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:35.000 bring in or on directly, and that of course would 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:36.720 be another war in the Middle East, and this one 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:39.680 very substantial. We'll talk about that on top of what's 0:05:39.680 --> 0:05:40.280 happening right now. 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:42.520 Yeah, talk about that a little bit. In the US's 0:05:42.560 --> 0:05:44.880 involvement and what you and your opinion think that the 0:05:44.960 --> 0:05:48.760 US should actually do not just to rescue the Americans 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:53.080 who've been held hostage, but also to make sure that parties, 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:56.200 whoever they are at this point, are held accountable for 0:05:56.320 --> 0:05:58.680 what happened on Saturday and what continues to happen in Israel. 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:06.520 So militarily, the Pentagon announced the deployment of an aircraft 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:09.360 carrier strike group, so the General Low Board Strike Group. 0:06:09.640 --> 0:06:13.680 That's one aircraft perria, two destroyers and two cruisers. It's substantial, 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:16.640 and it's going to be parked off of Israel. Quite frankly, 0:06:17.080 --> 0:06:19.280 that is both a deterrence so that if any other 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:22.560 country decide might be thinking about jumping into this, they 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:25.880 have to consider that presence right there, which is an 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:29.240 incredible amount of military capability. The second thing that I 0:06:29.279 --> 0:06:32.160 think the United States is already doing. We keep pre 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:36.160 planned munitions pre staged in Israel for our own purposes. Israel, 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:39.080 I believe, has already asked you to be able to 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:40.880 get access to that, and I think we're going to 0:06:40.920 --> 0:06:43.640 do that. That's a lot of ammunition that they can 0:06:43.720 --> 0:06:46.719 use in their grind offensive at a time when ammunition 0:06:46.880 --> 0:06:49.960 and weapons are in a shortage all around the world life, 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:52.640 mostly from the Ukraine conflict. And the third is I 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:56.640 think helped them with intelligence. Obviously that's been an issue, 0:06:56.640 --> 0:06:59.479 but they need intelligence to be able to accurately plan 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:03.360 their upcoming ground invasion, and I think the United States 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:07.200 can do that all before becoming directly involved. That is 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:08.880 likely where the United States is right now. 0:07:09.040 --> 0:07:13.400 Your Lobo Institute, it's all about conflicts, current future otherwise. 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:18.280 And you advise clients about this and consult on this 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:21.000 specifically at a time when we still have a war 0:07:21.120 --> 0:07:23.840 in Ukraine and now we have this, what's the message 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:29.320 to global companies to governments about security issues international security 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:32.120 issues at a time like today And just got about 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:33.640 a minute unfortunately. 0:07:35.320 --> 0:07:38.000 Yeah, slowly understand. So thanks for bringing up Logo Institute. 0:07:38.240 --> 0:07:39.920 It is a group of people not only that we're 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:41.960 in the agency and the military, but also in the 0:07:42.080 --> 0:07:46.679 UN for example USAID. So it really covers the gamut 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:50.880 of both your military types and your essentially humanitarian types. 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:54.679 And that is really what the message is of Lobo 0:07:54.720 --> 0:07:57.680 Institute is that it is not just one tool to 0:07:57.760 --> 0:08:01.040 help in conflicts, it's a multiple tools tools. For example, 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:06.120 if the economic conditions in some countries don't improve then 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:09.480 we're always going to have a terrorist issue from that country. 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:11.640 It's just as a matter of fact. So that's what 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:13.560 we focus on. We work for the UN we work 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:17.000 for the US State Department. In areas where it's seemingly endless, 0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:21.680 wars continue to happen, and unfortunately wars continue to be started. 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:23.720 All right, Going to leave it on that note, Thank 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:26.840 you so much. We so appreciate your insight on this 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:30.160 difficult day and just trying to make some sense out 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:33.200 of it, certainly for all of the Bloomberg audiences that 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:35.000 are out there. Mick Mulury, thank you so much. On 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:37.800 zoom from Montana. He's co founder of the Lobo Institute. 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:40.320 He's also former deput Assistant Secretary of Defense and a 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:44.120 retired CIA officer, and so much more so, incredible insight 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:45.040 and perspective on this. 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:49.120 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:52.520 Live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on 0:08:52.559 --> 0:08:56.600 Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:59.000 or wants us Live on YouTube. 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:02.320 US for Long with Tim Stenovic. Life here on Bloomberg 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:06.520 Business Week, our coverage of the Hamas Israel conflict continues 0:09:06.960 --> 0:09:10.520 to be fair. Conflict feels like an easy word. Hamas 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:15.120 really attacking Israel over the weekend Saturday surprise attack on 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:17.960 Israel by the Palestinian Group may represent one of the 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:21.920 biggest failures by Israeli intelligence since the Yam Kapor War 0:09:21.960 --> 0:09:24.440 of nineteen seventy three. We've been talking about this. The 0:09:24.440 --> 0:09:27.320 attack involved dozens of infiltrations by land and sea, together 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:30.520 with rocket attacks. A sophisticated assault, but as we just 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:34.800 talked about, you know that it was also in some ways, 0:09:34.960 --> 0:09:39.760 you know, very basic in terms of gliders, right, all 0:09:39.840 --> 0:09:45.920 those bulldozers, like. It wasn't necessarily technologically sophisticated, but nonetheless 0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:49.080 it was rather broad and it definitely took some kind 0:09:49.120 --> 0:09:50.600 of planning to get into it. 0:09:50.840 --> 0:09:54.640 And it's certainly one that intelligence agencies missed and they 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:58.240 were supposed to pick up on. That's a bigger conversation 0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:01.400 for now, though. Let's get to doctor Ariel Cohen, a 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:04.439 non resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:06.920 also a member of the Council of Foreign Relations. He's 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:09.480 also a consultant where he works with companies, NGOs and 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:13.240 governments on international security, oil and gas strategy. He's got 0:10:13.240 --> 0:10:15.480 a client list that includes Fortune five hundred companies, as 0:10:15.480 --> 0:10:18.319 well as USAID, the World Bank, the Pentagon, and the 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:22.120 US Senate. He's also been in the Israeli Defense Forces. 0:10:22.559 --> 0:10:27.000 He served in the IDF, Israel's national military. Very pleased 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:29.480 to have you join us, doctor Cohen, this afternoon. How 0:10:29.520 --> 0:10:29.760 are you. 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:38.240 I'm very worried. Families cold up in reserves, friends of 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:43.360 friends being killed, and the horrible pictures of close to 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:50.640 a thousand Israeli's Jews, Arabs, Muslims, Christians killed. Also, people 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:55.520 from Nepal, people from Thailand murdered in cold blood, children 0:10:55.559 --> 0:11:00.520 taking hostage to Gaza, eighty five year olds in Wiltshire killed, 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:06.400 parents executed in front of their children. Horrible, horrible images. 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:10.760 So how does this happen? And how does Israeli intelligence, 0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:15.480 which is considered top among the world, how does it fail? 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:22.120 Israel right now is in a response mode into Gaza 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:28.200 and very concerned about possible escalations in the West Bank, Judean, 0:11:28.280 --> 0:11:33.840 Samaria and Lebanon, where Chrisballa, the fully owned subsidiary of Iran, 0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:39.760 is aiming tens of thousands of more powerful rockets than 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:44.720 those from Gaza on hyper Tel Aviv and other cities. 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:52.720 And the accounting for this failure is going to come, 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:56.040 but it's probably going to come later on after the 0:11:56.080 --> 0:12:00.240 shooting stops in the meantime. Yes, you're absolutely right. It's 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:04.840 an intelligence failure of historic proportions like the Young Keeper War, 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:08.080 or worse because during the war Young Keeper War, it 0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:13.400 was soldiers who were killed. It was armies who clashed, 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:20.240 not peaceful villagers and attendeeeds of a raid in the 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:25.000 desert who were surrounded and murdered. Two hundred and sixty 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:29.080 people were killed in a raide young people. So in 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:35.160 that respect it's worse. The accounting, probably the judiciary inquiry 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:39.079 commission like the Grand Commission of nineteen seventy four, is 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:44.000 probably going to happen. I cannot imagine Prime Minister Natanyao, 0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:51.280 Defense Minister Yov Gallant de Mosad director, the Shinbet Security 0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:55.160 Service director, the Chief of Intelligence for the Army and 0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:57.760 the Chief for the Army to keep their jobs. 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:02.520 Wow, that's a long list of people, doctor Cohen, As 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:05.120 we just heard a few minutes ago from our own 0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:08.440 Charlie Pellett Bloomberg headline crossing that said Delta Airlines will 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:13.280 cancel its flights to and from Tel Aviv through October thirty. First, certainly, 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:16.400 Delta Airlines thinks the conflict is going to last until 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:18.160 at least the end of the month, when they're going 0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:20.840 to revisit whether they do flights there. How do you 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:21.960 see this playing out? 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:27.040 Well, First of all, this concerns me because my daughter 0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:30.280 and her husband are supposed to fly back to Israel 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:36.920 this week on Delta. My daughter runs Cyberwell and online 0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:44.760 organization that fights anti Semitism in social media. Would she 0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:47.760 have returned, No, she's in the States right now. 0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:49.960 But would she have returned on her ticket if it 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:50.640 was available? 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:55.079 Oh? Yeah, absolutely. She has a crew of colleagues to run, 0:13:55.520 --> 0:14:00.959 she's the CEO of this nonprofit, and she would go back. 0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:06.960 Possibly should be called up because she served in the 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:07.959 idea as well. 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:09.880 We should note that we should note I just want 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:12.120 to jump in. We should note that Lal, the flag 0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:15.560 carrier for Israel, the nation's carrier, has increased the number 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:19.120 of flights to try to bring Israelis back to Israel 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:20.280 who have been called. 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:23.680 Up, and Israelis are volunteering to go back from all 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:28.960 over the world. To save their country. I say saved 0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:38.600 deliberately because the threat, the threat to the cities and 0:14:38.680 --> 0:14:44.080 villages of Israel not just from Gaza, but also from 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:48.920 Hama's presence in the West Bank, Islamic Jihad, which is 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:54.280 fully supported and funded by Iran, and from Kibala. This 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:57.720 is an existential threat. And if it escalates to the 0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:02.000 point where big cities like Hypen in Tel Aviv are 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:06.960 bombed severely, if there is a threshold the victims of 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:12.080 killed and wounded, I estimate it roughly around ten thousand. 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:17.160 If that reaches these numbers, Israel may retaliate up to 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:20.480 and including unconventional warfare. 0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:22.000 Against ira Do you mean nuclear weapons? 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:27.720 Unconventional warfare? And by the way, the fact that we 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:32.000 the United States are moving the carrier battle Group to 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:36.880 eastern Mediterranean is as strong warning to the Islamic Republic 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:40.840 and its leaders and to Syria not to escalate. And 0:15:40.880 --> 0:15:43.880 if they don't heed that warning, I do not exclude 0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:47.760 a situation in which the United States and Israel go 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:50.920 for a joint operation for the first time in history. 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:56.320 What's the risk for Israel. I'm doing too much, retaliating 0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.800 too much, and what's the risk of not doing enough. 0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:07.320 Israel did not retaliate too much for twenty years. Give 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:11.880 a take since two thousand and seven, when Israel fully 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:19.080 evacuated Gaza, when Gaza had an airport, a seaport, agriculture, 0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:26.880 and all Israeli settlements were relegated out of Gaza, and 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:30.800 then kamaskar Is shooting rockets and the blockade on the 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:36.680 Israeli side with the Egyptian borders still open came into play. 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:40.280 And even with that, when you look at pictures that 0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:46.280 photographs of Gaza in between these escalations, there were restaurants, 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:51.800 there were shops opened. They were not starving by any 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:57.800 stretch of imagination. And deliberate escalation by Kama's leadership led 0:16:58.080 --> 0:17:05.600 to what just happened, including taking people hostage, including many 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:10.119 many victims on Israeli side, but also there has to 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:17.480 be unfortunately victims amongst civilian populations when Israel targets and 0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:23.640 hits Kamas command posts, Hamas rocket launchers, et cetera. Now, 0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:28.679 going forward, I think Israel got to a point where 0:17:28.720 --> 0:17:34.320 it will try to destroy the Kamas command structure and 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:39.320 Palestinian Islamic JIOD command structure. If this will lead to 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:46.480 the collapse of the Kammas theocratic dictatorship. Don't forget a 0:17:46.560 --> 0:17:51.520 lot of people in Gaza back in the day when 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:54.920 the last elections happened in two thousand and five, voted 0:17:54.960 --> 0:18:00.320 for Kamas. And now the little public opinion reached search 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:04.639 that happens indicate that half or more of residents of 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:08.560 guds And may have had enough with these finacs. 0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:11.240 We were speaking with doctor Eryl Cohen, non Resident Senior 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:14.080 Fellow at the Atlantic Councils Eurasia Center and a member 0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:17.080 of the Council of Foreign Relations, Good to get his 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:18.040 thoughts up. 0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:22.120 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:26.160 live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:29.639 the Bloomberg Business app and YouTube. You can also listen 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:32.840 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:36.080 just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:39.520 All right, we do want to go to our next guest, 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:45.160 because continue to cover the attack in Israel and understand 0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:47.679 the situation at large, if you will, Tim, and we 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:49.600 keep talking about size and scope, it's something we're all 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:53.120 about at Bloomberg, but really understanding the significance of what 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:56.320 happened in surprise attack and what ultimately means longer term. 0:18:56.440 --> 0:18:58.680 Yeah, very pleased to have with us. Danny Danone, a senior 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:01.320 member of the Kiness set Or Parliament, also sits on 0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:04.800 Israel's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, former Deputy Defense Minister, 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:08.280 former Israeli Ambassador to the UN. He's also a chairman 0:19:08.480 --> 0:19:11.800 of the World Licud party of Prime Minister Benjamin n Yahoo. 0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:14.960 Ambassador denn Is with us from Tel Aviv. Ambassador, good 0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:17.040 to have you with us this afternoon. I think a 0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:20.159 question that so many people are asking is how did 0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:22.240 Israeli security apparatus miss this? 0:19:24.840 --> 0:19:27.320 You know, today we had a very long discussion on 0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:30.800 the fall and a further defense committee exactly about this issue. 0:19:31.280 --> 0:19:32.879 And I think it would take us some time to 0:19:32.880 --> 0:19:36.480 do the popular inquiry. But we can admit and react 0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:39.320 to admit we were caught by surprise, exactly like what 0:19:39.359 --> 0:19:44.040 happened fifty years ago on Young kipul Wo. The always 0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:47.120 took advantage of a Jewish holiday and we were court 0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:51.120 by surprise. But you know, it's more than just a surprise. 0:19:51.680 --> 0:19:55.560 We were not ready for the brutality, for the barbaric 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:59.760 approach of those militias. You know, when they entered these 0:19:59.760 --> 0:20:03.080 were they didn't attack a military basis. They went to 0:20:03.160 --> 0:20:08.399 peaceful communities on the border, dragged families out of the homes, 0:20:08.560 --> 0:20:11.960 executed them, and dragged a dozen of them into gather. 0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:16.960 And today when we start to count the numbers, it's 0:20:17.080 --> 0:20:20.760 very hard for us. More than one victims in one day. 0:20:21.600 --> 0:20:24.240 We never saw such a twasitive since the date of 0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:28.280 the Holocaust. So for us to see those videos and 0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:35.960 footage of Barbarica terrorists entering homes, taking elderly people and 0:20:36.200 --> 0:20:41.320 kids and committing a massacre, it is very hard for us. 0:20:41.840 --> 0:20:44.400 We feel the pain im it well, all of us, 0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:47.639 but we gather the strength to stand up and to 0:20:47.720 --> 0:20:50.280 fight back, and we would start to fight back in 0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:51.199 the next few days. 0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:54.480 You know, as you say, this is unusual, especially for 0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:58.280 the attack on civilians. Heard ever make sense in a 0:20:58.320 --> 0:21:01.199 situation like this. But how do you think about this 0:21:01.320 --> 0:21:07.040 approach that we saw by Hamas in terms of this attack. 0:21:09.440 --> 0:21:11.840 Well, you know, we shouldn't look for logic when you 0:21:11.880 --> 0:21:15.679 deal with terrorists, same for ninety eleven with al Qaida 0:21:16.040 --> 0:21:19.560 or Isis. You know, it's not the same logic. Way 0:21:19.640 --> 0:21:22.960 we think about goals and moving forward. You know, we 0:21:23.040 --> 0:21:26.080 left Gaza. We left Gaza eighteen years ago. We took 0:21:26.080 --> 0:21:28.600 out all the Jewish communities and we hope that it 0:21:28.640 --> 0:21:31.800 will be a peaceful entity next to us. Then look 0:21:31.840 --> 0:21:35.440 what happened. Hamas took over, kicked out the Palestinal authority 0:21:35.880 --> 0:21:39.080 and it became a hub for terrorism. And all the 0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:44.119 funds that the international community spends on Gaza goes for terrorism, 0:21:44.200 --> 0:21:48.680 for digging tunnels, developing the techniques, and we saw the capabilities. 0:21:49.000 --> 0:21:51.000 You know, they came from the sea, from the Earl, 0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:54.280 from the font tunnels, and the main goal was to 0:21:55.440 --> 0:22:00.600 sow destruction in our communities, chaos. And they think that 0:22:00.680 --> 0:22:03.360 maybe it will sell them, but they will learn very 0:22:03.400 --> 0:22:05.840 soon that it was a great mistake. They will pay 0:22:05.840 --> 0:22:09.040 a heavy price. We will hand them down and I 0:22:09.119 --> 0:22:11.080 think they will fill the might of the idea in 0:22:11.119 --> 0:22:14.280 the near future. And I call the government of it 0:22:14.400 --> 0:22:17.040 well to make a very clear statement that the goal 0:22:17.080 --> 0:22:20.919 of the operation should be to eradicate Hamas period, to 0:22:21.040 --> 0:22:23.600 finish it, not to have another round and then a 0:22:23.680 --> 0:22:26.159 seat fire, because then we will wake up in a 0:22:26.200 --> 0:22:27.879 few years with another attack. 0:22:27.960 --> 0:22:31.359 Mister ambassador, how do you how do you eradicate harmas 0:22:31.440 --> 0:22:33.360 from Gaza. 0:22:33.760 --> 0:22:36.440 Well, first of all, i'm i'm, I have to acknowledge 0:22:36.480 --> 0:22:39.880 it's not going to be an easy task. It would 0:22:39.880 --> 0:22:43.920 require a lot of efforts, but they basically you have 0:22:44.000 --> 0:22:47.560 to conquer the land and to make the distinction between 0:22:47.640 --> 0:22:51.359 the population and the militants. You know, as we speak, 0:22:51.400 --> 0:22:55.679 we're sending messages to certain neighborhood in Gaza calling for 0:22:55.720 --> 0:22:58.320 the residents to move out from those neighborhoods. You know, 0:22:58.400 --> 0:23:01.440 we do not have a desire to toward civilian population. 0:23:01.680 --> 0:23:04.760 Unlike Hamas, they commit a double walk crin the target 0:23:04.840 --> 0:23:08.880 civilians and then they hide behind civilians and they use 0:23:09.000 --> 0:23:10.280 them as human shields. 0:23:10.600 --> 0:23:12.400 We have the exact opposite. 0:23:12.480 --> 0:23:17.399 The goal is to minimize the casualties among civilians and 0:23:17.440 --> 0:23:20.399 we're trying to convince them to move away from the 0:23:20.440 --> 0:23:22.520 strategic Ramas headquarters. 0:23:22.800 --> 0:23:26.520 Ambassador, how do you do this? Though we talked about 0:23:26.680 --> 0:23:31.280 if Iran, although our officials have come out and said 0:23:32.080 --> 0:23:34.840 specifically I'm sorrying about our National Security Council spokesman John 0:23:34.920 --> 0:23:38.479 Kirby talking on MSNBC on CNN saying that they do 0:23:38.640 --> 0:23:41.439 not have any specific intelligence or evidence that points to 0:23:41.920 --> 0:23:46.320 direct participation by Iran in these attacks against Israel. But 0:23:46.480 --> 0:23:51.720 if indeed and Israel moves forward with some deep retaliation, 0:23:52.320 --> 0:23:55.800 and ultimately, if Iran is involved in some way and 0:23:55.840 --> 0:23:59.080 you engage Iran, and then you know, as we heard 0:23:59.080 --> 0:24:01.560 from an earlier guest, to Iran and all of its proxies, 0:24:01.600 --> 0:24:04.119 whether it's Syria, whether it's Lebanon, I mean, how do 0:24:04.160 --> 0:24:07.639 you how do you avoid this not getting out of 0:24:07.760 --> 0:24:10.119 control worse than it is already. 0:24:12.000 --> 0:24:15.080 So w Iran, it's very involved in everything in the region. 0:24:15.160 --> 0:24:22.040 They spend billions on promoting chaos, instability, funding Hamas and 0:24:22.119 --> 0:24:26.840 his Balam and training both proxies, and we know that 0:24:26.880 --> 0:24:30.159 they're very involved. There are some speculation about, you know, 0:24:30.280 --> 0:24:33.960 their desire to block a piece deal between Saudi Arabia 0:24:33.960 --> 0:24:36.639 and Israel, and maybe that's why, because there is no 0:24:36.720 --> 0:24:39.240 reason for the timing. You know, nothing happened. You know, 0:24:39.280 --> 0:24:42.199 it was an unprovoked attack. So maybe one of the 0:24:42.240 --> 0:24:45.520 speculations that they wanted to delay any progress in the 0:24:45.600 --> 0:24:49.479 negotiations with the saudiast But the Iranians should know that 0:24:49.520 --> 0:24:52.480