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Speaker 1: Live from our nation's CALEA. How do we reopen this economy?

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Speaker 1: The latest on how this pandemic is impacting farmers. What

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Speaker 1: does this do for the United States relationship with China?

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Speaker 1: Floomberg Sound on, the insiders, the influencers, the insides. We're

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Speaker 1: responding to this crisis and manufacturers are stepping up like

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Speaker 1: never before. You're looking at seventy kennidates for different vaccines.

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Speaker 1: How do we make sure a pandemic of this scale

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Speaker 1: never happens again? This is Bloomberg? Sound on with kevin'sur

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Speaker 1: relate on Bloomberg and one oh five point seven f

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Speaker 1: m h D two. Speaker Pelosi and Secretary Manution continued

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Speaker 1: to narrow differences on a stimulus plan plus US US

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Speaker 1: stocks drop with spending a deal elusive that as COVID

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Speaker 1: hits key states. And we're just a couple of nights

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Speaker 1: away from Thursday's final presidential debate. A lot to get

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Speaker 1: through first, though. Did you see all the back and

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Speaker 1: forth jabs at the campaigns are are trading at each

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Speaker 1: other for this debate on Thursday night in Nashville. Get ready, folks,

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Speaker 1: We're gonna have al modern Doug High coming up to

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Speaker 1: talk to us all about it, and uh, first though,

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Speaker 1: let's begin with the economy, because we're gonna check in

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Speaker 1: with critic Upta on the markets. But China's economy plowed

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Speaker 1: on as the world's only major growth engine. I'm reading

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Speaker 1: from the Bloomberg Germinal. China's recovery from the coronavirus slump

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Speaker 1: continued in the third quarter and showed signs of broadening

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Speaker 1: in September, keeping the economy on track to be the

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Speaker 1: world's only major growth engine and validating Beijing's aggressive And

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Speaker 1: I don't know if it validates it though. Uh. Joining

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Speaker 1: us on the line, Tom Arlick, Bloomberg Economics Chief Economists

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Speaker 1: and author of the great new book China, The Bubble

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Speaker 1: Never Pops, All right, First of all, do we believe

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Speaker 1: China's numbers? And and what what? What were they able

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Speaker 1: to do? Don't tell me this is this is that

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Speaker 1: we're all gonna turn communist now because China has a

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Speaker 1: good g d P. Tomay, Yeah, I think we can

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Speaker 1: hold back on turning cognising seven we can. I think

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Speaker 1: we can. We can celebrate. We can celebrate China's rapid

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Speaker 1: economic recovery without embracing their particular political system um. So

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Speaker 1: I think it's really about control of the virus, Kevin.

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Speaker 1: I mean, here we are in America, still thousands of

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Speaker 1: new cases every day. Europe we've got cases coming back.

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Speaker 1: And when that happens, either the government has to impose

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Speaker 1: a lockdown, or even if they don't, people are just cautious.

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Speaker 1: Businesses they closed, consumers don't go to the shops. China,

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Speaker 1: they don't get everything right, but they controlled their virus

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Speaker 1: at home pretty quickly. We saw a big recovery beginning

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Speaker 1: in the second quarter. Third quarter, they're getting further back

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Speaker 1: to normal. So we had four point nine percent annual

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Speaker 1: growth in GDP in the third quarter of the year

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Speaker 1: in China for the year as a whole, probably we're

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Speaker 1: looking at around two percent growth. Is going to be

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Speaker 1: the only major economy in the world this year recording

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Speaker 1: a positive number. Do they feel they have a branding

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Speaker 1: problem since the virus originated there? So it's it's a

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Speaker 1: really interesting question, Kevin. I mean, domestically, they've done a

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Speaker 1: very good job of controlling the virus and getting the

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Speaker 1: economy back to life. Globally, this has not been a

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Speaker 1: good year for perceptions of China. The virus. We think

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Speaker 1: originated in Wuhan. That's not the only problem that they've

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Speaker 1: been facing. They are perceived as having a sort of

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Speaker 1: a heavy handed diplomatic follow up on the virus. There's

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Speaker 1: more and more attention to what's happening in Shinjiang to

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Speaker 1: what's happening in Hong Kong. Um. So, yes, they got

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Speaker 1: the economy going again, but the global perception of China

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Speaker 1: is becoming increasingly dark. And we saw some numbers on

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Speaker 1: that just recently. Pew, the sort of the opinion poll company,

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Speaker 1: produced some global members on favorable or unfavorable views of China,

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Speaker 1: and really there's been a marked increase in unfavorable views

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Speaker 1: and really is remarkable. Yeah, we were just discussing, there's

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Speaker 1: there's numbers. It's just the other week. In terms of Europe,

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Speaker 1: how is Europe's perception specifically of China evolved over the

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Speaker 1: last couple of months. And I would focus specifically on Germany.

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Speaker 1: Tom som Europe's in this kind of interesting position, right

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Speaker 1: because yes, um, there are economic challenges which come from

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Speaker 1: the rise of China. If you think about Germany and

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Speaker 1: the way Germany has this kind of very strong exporting

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Speaker 1: position because it has the kind of the intellectual property

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Speaker 1: behind a lot of engineering products. Well, China's plan more

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Speaker 1: or less explicitly is to take the lead in those

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Speaker 1: products and so to take market share from German companies. Um.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, there isn't that really that element

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Speaker 1: of sort of geopolitical rivalry, right that One of the

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Speaker 1: issues in the United States is the United States has

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Speaker 1: been number one for a long time and giving that up,

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Speaker 1: especially giving it up to a country which isn't a democracy,

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Speaker 1: which doesn't have a capitalist economic system, is really hard

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Speaker 1: to do. In Europe, well, the Europeans haven't been number

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Speaker 1: one for a long time. So there isn't that sort

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Speaker 1: of that sense of kind of geopolitical intense competition there,

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Speaker 1: And that means the relationship isn't quite so tense. Really,

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Speaker 1: What about what Germany, especially the decisions as it relates

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Speaker 1: to five G tawhere, Like German Chancellor Angela Merkel has

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Speaker 1: reported in the Wall Street Journal the other week taking

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Speaker 1: a decidedly different tone to Beijing. No, or does that

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Speaker 1: not match the dear reporting? So I'm not saying there

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Speaker 1: aren't tensions. There are certainly tensions, and those tensions are rising.

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Speaker 1: But let's think about who led the charge on this right.

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Speaker 1: It was the US, the election of Donald Trump, the

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Speaker 1: trade war, the sanctions against Huawei, the threat to end

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Speaker 1: TikTok and we chats position in the US market, the

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Speaker 1: closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston. UM Secretary of

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Speaker 1: State Pompeo saying that the Chinese Communist Party is seeking

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Speaker 1: global higemony for their worldview. I mean it's the U

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Speaker 1: s who's really out in front on this. Yes, Germany

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Speaker 1: other European countries are now paying much more attention than

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Speaker 1: they would UM. But relative to the sort of the

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Speaker 1: intense heat of US China relations, I think relations between

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Speaker 1: China and Europe. Yeah, they're heating up, the tensions arising,

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Speaker 1: but the temperature is still not that elevated when it

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Speaker 1: relates to the issue of the United States. And one

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Speaker 1: of the things that I hear so much frequently and time,

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Speaker 1: I gotta be really honest with you, there is so

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Speaker 1: much bipartisanship on taking a much more aggressive national security,

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Speaker 1: whether it's technology or whether it's militaristically. So much bipartisanship

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Speaker 1: in terms of how to deal with China and to

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Speaker 1: be candidate. Even if Biden is elected, I think tariffs

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Speaker 1: are still very much on the table. I've asked, you know,

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Speaker 1: some of his advisers as much, and tariffs maybe not

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Speaker 1: as aggressive as President Trump, but tariffs are here to stay.

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Speaker 1: Tom warlocks on the line. He's Bloomberg Chief Bloomberg Economics

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Speaker 1: Chief Economists, and he's got this great new book out

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Speaker 1: called China The Bubble That Never Pops. But I want

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Speaker 1: to come back to this issue of reciprocity Tom in

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Speaker 1: the in the minute or half that I have left

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Speaker 1: with you, I mean, what do you what what does

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Speaker 1: China make or what do you, based upon your reporting,

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Speaker 1: make of this issue that so many in in the

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Speaker 1: United States feel that China has not been reciprocal at all.

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Speaker 1: And then as it relates to stuff like TikTok and technology, Well,

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Speaker 1: if they're not going to allow Google, for example, to

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Speaker 1: go into China, why should the US bend over backwards

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Speaker 1: to accommodate them. Yeah, that's a great question. Kevin, and

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Speaker 1: we spoke earlier about how UM the COVID shock had

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Speaker 1: been really bad PR for China. UM Well, in a

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Speaker 1: strange way, the trade war and the technology sanctions which

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Speaker 1: the US has imposed on China have been really bad PR.

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Speaker 1: For the United States, Right, Because if we go back

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Speaker 1: to two thousand and sixteen, before all of this started,

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Speaker 1: it's China who's got the higher tariffs. It's China who's

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Speaker 1: got the barriers to US technology firms operating in their market.

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Speaker 1: Um So, in a sense, all the things which the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration have done have brought the relationship onto a

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Speaker 1: more reciprocal basis. Right, you've got barriers for us, We're

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Speaker 1: going to create some barriers for you. But the pr

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Speaker 1: sort of miss for Washington is all of this has

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Speaker 1: been presented as the US being the bad actor, right,

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Speaker 1: the US distorting the relationship, rather than the US taking

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Speaker 1: measures which kind of reciprocate for controls which China already

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Speaker 1: has in place. Yeah, for now, I don't know. I

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Speaker 1: think I still think one it once there's a mass

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Speaker 1: education system underway as it relates to all of the

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Speaker 1: human rights abuses against the Wagers and and all of

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Speaker 1: the human rights abuses that they've done in Hong Kong,

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Speaker 1: I think, I don't know. I think it's a I

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Speaker 1: think this is a very beginning of a long conversation,

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Speaker 1: which is why I'm so grateful for Tom Warlick to

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Speaker 1: come on the author of the great new book China,

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Speaker 1: The Bubble That Never Pops. He's Bloomberg Economics Chief Economists.

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Speaker 1: Much more coming up next. Thank you so much time.

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Speaker 1: Download the Bloomberg Sound On podcast on Apple iTunes and

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, or by downloading the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also find me on Radio dot com, I

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Speaker 1: Heart Radio and Spotify. Up in the next hour Doug

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Speaker 1: High and Al Modter plus Pretty Gupta Bloomberg Markets Live Reporter.

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Speaker 1: We're going to keep talking about the markets and US

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Speaker 1: stocks dropping with spending. A deal still elusive, so we're

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about all of that. Coming up of Kevin Sili.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg nine one. You're listening to Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Sound On with Kevin Surrel on Bloomberg and one oh

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Speaker 1: five point seven F M h D two. I'm Kevin Sireli,

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Speaker 1: Chief Fashion and correspondent for Bloomberg Television and for Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Shout out to our indefatigable executive producer, Christine Barrata, as

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Speaker 1: well as the one and only birthday boy, Matthew Shirley.

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Speaker 1: Day later, Happy birthday to matt U s Stacks dropped

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Speaker 1: not because of Matt's birthday. US stocks fell to the

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Speaker 1: lowest in almost two weeks as Congress remained apart on

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Speaker 1: a fresh government spending deal, dancing hopes for a breakthrough

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Speaker 1: before the election. Treasury slipped with the dollar the SMP

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Speaker 1: five x fel more than one point five as opposition

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Speaker 1: to a sizeable aid package hardened in the Republican controlled Senate,

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Speaker 1: and House Speaker told her caucus negotiators are still trying

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Speaker 1: to reach a deal. That's where we begin today, just

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Speaker 1: a couple of days away from Thursday nights per President

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Speaker 1: chilled debate joining us on the hotline. Her name is

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Speaker 1: critic up to us. She is a Bloomberg Markets Live

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Speaker 1: reporter Critty. What happened to the markets today? All you

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Speaker 1: said of kevinet is all about that simulus bill where

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Speaker 1: you started off today and the green global investors really

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Speaker 1: thinking that Speaker policies tore eight hour deadline would make

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Speaker 1: a difference. And really, you end of the day, we're

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Speaker 1: just more messages at birth times. They aren't willing to

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Speaker 1: really budge on that front. And that's really what that

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Speaker 1: stopped Blower today. You know, we heard from former Fed

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Speaker 1: shairwoman Janet Yellen speaking earlier today to our colleagues Tom King,

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Speaker 1: Lisa Brandowitz, and Jonathan Faroll on the Bloomberg surveillance. Take

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Speaker 1: a listen to what former FED chair Janet Yellen had

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Speaker 1: to say on Bloomberg Surveillance earlier this morning. Here here

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Speaker 1: they are. We need support for the economy, both for

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Speaker 1: monetary and fiscal policy. And monetary policy has already done

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Speaker 1: a huge, amailed fiscal policy response in the United States

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Speaker 1: has been ex dreamily impressive. But um, actually it's it's

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Speaker 1: much larger of the fiscal support than what was done

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Speaker 1: after the two thousand and eight nine financial crisis. But um,

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Speaker 1: the fiscal support his now lapsed. That was FED Chair

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Speaker 1: Former FED Chairwoman Janet Yellen speaking earlier today on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance with Tom Keene, Lisa Bramowitz, and Jonathan Pharaoh. Red

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Speaker 1: headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal as we speak, sent a

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Speaker 1: majority leader Mitch McConnell says that there will be a

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Speaker 1: vote on the stimulus deal on Tuesday or Wednesday. Again,

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Speaker 1: Tuesday or Wednesday, uh is when they're that vote will

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Speaker 1: be on the fiscal stimulus deal. Uh. You know, it's

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Speaker 1: looking unlikely critic Gupta. But even when you hear from

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Speaker 1: a former FED chair just speaking in such plane speak,

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Speaker 1: really in a way that we're not used to hearing

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Speaker 1: former FED officials speaking and just saying, you know what,

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Speaker 1: this is something that the economy needs and needs fast. Well, really,

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Speaker 1: and you heard this from several other said officials as well.

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Speaker 1: It's really just saying it's not even about how much

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Speaker 1: we get, we just need something to hold us over

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Speaker 1: one trillion dollars price into most economist view, about what

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Speaker 1: that will take to keep the economic momentum going. That's

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Speaker 1: really what you're up against here. The fact that Jenny

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Speaker 1: Yellen is really underscoring this after of course that two

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Speaker 1: two thousand nine comments and crisis that she has witnessed

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Speaker 1: and made, very important thing to keep in mind. It's

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Speaker 1: just that at what point do we start to see

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Speaker 1: the potential for the economic rebound really starting to fade?

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Speaker 1: The farther and farther we get away, we get that

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Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus coming in, whether that's the airline aid, whether

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Speaker 1: that's the Patch Protection program, or even unemployment or insurance,

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Speaker 1: that's really what we have our eyes on here. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: really great point, Cretic guptors on the line with us.

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Speaker 1: She of course is Bloomberg Markets Live reporter, you know, cretic.

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Speaker 1: We started the day where you've got the President's chief

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Speaker 1: of Staff, Mark Meadows fielding off putting out fires from

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Speaker 1: Maggie story in the New York Times, but then also

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Speaker 1: talking about the round the clock, uh, around the clock

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Speaker 1: negotiations that are going on that he's having, not with

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Speaker 1: just Speaker Pelosi, mind you, but also with President Trump.

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Speaker 1: So take a listen to what Mark Meadows had to

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Speaker 1: say earlier this morning to reporters outside of the White

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Speaker 1: House about how the nature of the negotiations and what's

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Speaker 1: going on. Take a listen to Mark Meadows here. He's us,

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Speaker 1: we're working around the clock. I talked to the President,

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Speaker 1: uh you know, for over an hour yesterday about the

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Speaker 1: stimulus package and what we might be able to come

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Speaker 1: to an agreement on. And then he went on to

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Speaker 1: discuss his relationship with sen A Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

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Speaker 1: Here here he is on that there are some in

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Speaker 1: the Senate that would support it, Whether there's enough votes

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Speaker 1: to get to the sixty vote threshold, Uh, that's up

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Speaker 1: to Leader McConnell. Well, he says again red headline crossing

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal, that they're going to vote on that

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Speaker 1: stimulus on either Tuesday or Wednesday, dis according to send

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Speaker 1: a majority leader Mitch McConnell, breaking news within the last

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Speaker 1: just couple of minutes, a cretic good to your reaction

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Speaker 1: in terms of what our markets going to be looking

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Speaker 1: for when that vote actually occurs. Obviously you know it's

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Speaker 1: a steep, steep, steep uphill climb for it to get across.

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Speaker 1: But if it goes nowhere, that's all but saying there's

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Speaker 1: not going to be a deal before the election, absolutely,

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Speaker 1: havin you nailed it. The big idea here is Canny.

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Speaker 1: Get the Senate on board. It's been it's been made

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Speaker 1: pretty clear that we do have Nancy policy, and even

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Speaker 1: the White House coming in and saying okay, well we

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Speaker 1: can go higher and higher on the amount of kind

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Speaker 1: of person against it has really been sent a majority,

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Speaker 1: Miss McConnell. And of course the GOP really dig either.

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Speaker 1: He'll saying no, we want to pass that individual aid

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Speaker 1: and said to me, all we're bill trying to be

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Speaker 1: more fistfully responsible. So that's really what investors will be watching.

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Speaker 1: Any comments coming from Cinemajority leader Mitch McConnell, who of

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Speaker 1: course has been very vocal about simply the size of

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Speaker 1: this deal um, whereas the Democrats, of course more on

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Speaker 1: the language and the virus control approach. So, like I said,

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Speaker 1: any comments from Miss mcconnald, that's really what's going to

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Speaker 1: move the markets tomorrow and Wednesday, all right. Meanwhile, we've

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Speaker 1: got the continuing uptick in cases across the country, particularly

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Speaker 1: in the Midwest. They're not going in the direction Cretic

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Speaker 1: Good to Bloomberg Markets Live Reporter. They're not going in

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Speaker 1: the direction that people want they want people want them

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Speaker 1: to be going down. The direction they're going is up.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you look at some of this, You look

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Speaker 1: at the holidays. You've got the back and forth and Fauci,

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Speaker 1: Dr Fauci and the President. I mean, and it seems

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Speaker 1: like everyone's bracing for an uptick of resurgence around the holidays.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's got to have investors on on edge.

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Speaker 1: It absolutely is. And I think the best lesson that

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Speaker 1: we can learn right now is going to be from

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Speaker 1: across the Atlantic. Over in Europe. What you're seeing these

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Speaker 1: major lockdown restrictions, these major kind of curves, the curfews,

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Speaker 1: and now that having economists thinking about a double dip recession,

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Speaker 1: so extrapolate that over because the possibility of what that

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Speaker 1: might be in the United States. Now, the difference here

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Speaker 1: is that Europe of courts, their trade, their economy, it's

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Speaker 1: a little bit more elated. They're not feeling as much

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Speaker 1: with trade with China or with the US. Here in

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Speaker 1: the US is going to be a completely different story.

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Speaker 1: You really want to watch what about those lockdowns, especially

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Speaker 1: in uh particularly city regions, even in bigger suburbs. If

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Speaker 1: you start to see the case ran to the point

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Speaker 1: that we saw in March or even over the summer

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Speaker 1: in the South, those are going to be major concern

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Speaker 1: for investors. You can started to see that reflecting the

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Speaker 1: equity markets for sure. And and even here and I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna bring it back to to the Beltway world just

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Speaker 1: for for one second, because critic Gutta just a brilliant

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Speaker 1: explainer in terms of the dynamics of across the pond.

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Speaker 1: But you whip saw across the Atlantic Ocean and land

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Speaker 1: right smack in Pennsylvania the COVID nineteen pandemic. Our colleague

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Speaker 1: Jonathan Lovin reports is disproportionately affecting some crucial voters two

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Speaker 1: weeks before election day, costing American lives and potentially hurting

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Speaker 1: some of the candidates. Wisconsin is the most extreme example.

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Speaker 1: This is a swing state Trump one in sixteen and

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Speaker 1: now has America's fourth worst outbreak ach by per capita

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Speaker 1: cases in the past week. Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina,

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Speaker 1: and Michigan of all seen difficult stretches and cases I've

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Speaker 1: been creeping back up in recent weeks. It's just, uh,

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Speaker 1: it's just fascinating crettic up to just to see the

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Speaker 1: dynamics of this, the economics of it, and then of course, uh,

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Speaker 1: what's been going on uh in the uh, in the

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Speaker 1: political lens as well. The final minute I have left

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Speaker 1: with you, what else is on your radar? Just very

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Speaker 1: very quickly. Well, I think you nailed it. I think

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Speaker 1: just the connections right now between politics and the virus case.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of a csaw right now. What takes consent?

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Speaker 1: Is it going to be whether the Biden or top

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Speaker 1: platforms what they suggested, what they need from markets or

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Speaker 1: the viruses? The lockdown concerns really overshadow the whole thing.

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Speaker 1: That's what I'm watching. Fascinating all right, Thanks so much,

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Speaker 1: Creaty for your time as always. Uh know it's been

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Speaker 1: a long day for you, so I appreciate you making

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Speaker 1: time for Bloomberg Radio Sound On, download the Bloomberg down

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Speaker 1: On podcast on Appalaitians at Bloomberg dot com or by

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Speaker 1: downloading the Bloomberg Business app. You can so find me

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Speaker 1: on radio dot com, I Heart Radio and Spotify. My

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Speaker 1: name is Kevin Sireli. You're listening Bloomberg one. Why from

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Speaker 1: our nation's camera? How do we reopen this economy? The

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Speaker 1: latest on how this pandemic is impacting farmers? What does

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Speaker 1: this do? From the United States relationship with China? Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Sound on the insiders, the influencers, the inside. We're responding

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Speaker 1: to this crisis and manufacturers are stepping up like never before.

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Speaker 1: You're looking at seventy kennidates for different ductees. How do

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Speaker 1: we make sure a pandemic of this scale never happens again?

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Sound On with Kevin Surrelate on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: and one oh five point seven f m h D two.

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Speaker 1: Just a couple more days until the final presidential debate

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Speaker 1: and already in the past couple of hours, Biden and

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Speaker 1: Trump camp paids trading pre debate jabs. Will bring you

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Speaker 1: the latest on the political front. All of that plus

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Speaker 1: virus upticks and key battleground states. What does it mean

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Speaker 1: for election day? And what happened in the market today

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Speaker 1: as we get breaking news? Said A Majority Leader. Mitch

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Speaker 1: McConnell says he's gonna put that stimulus up for a

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Speaker 1: vote tomorrow or Wednesday. All Right, they were trading jabs,

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Speaker 1: jip jabs, political jim jabs, back and forth, Trump campaign,

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Speaker 1: Biden campaign, Ducklow got into it, t J. You know,

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Speaker 1: they're all in the back and forth, back and forth.

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Speaker 1: Ahead of Nashville, I said, my bags aren't even packed up,

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Speaker 1: but we're headed to Nashville starting Wednesday morning because we're

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Speaker 1: gonna we're gonna do the final presidential debate. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk about the debates with our panel who I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: introduce now. But we're gonna begin the show with the

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Speaker 1: breaking news on the eco front because that's you know,

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Speaker 1: it's the stimulus talks, folks. I mean, that's that's a

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Speaker 1: huge story. I'll moters with me. Democratic strategist partner A Brown,

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Speaker 1: seeing Highatt Farber and Shrek hay Al Doug High, senior

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Speaker 1: vice president of media at Craft Media and Digital, former

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Speaker 1: Deputy chief of staff for House Majority Leader Eric Cancer.

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Speaker 1: So it's remarkable to have two of these in Rider's

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Speaker 1: up with me okay headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal just

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Speaker 1: within the last half hour, sent A Majority Leader Mitch

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Speaker 1: McConnell says that the fiscal stimulus vote in the Senate

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Speaker 1: is going to be on Tuesday or Wednesday. Now, I

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Speaker 1: want to I want to throw some caution on this.

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Speaker 1: It's it's it's an uphill battle, but either way, it's

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Speaker 1: getting a vote, and it's getting a vote on Tuesday

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Speaker 1: or Wednesday. This according to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

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Speaker 1: FED Chair former FED Chair Jenny Yellen was on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: surveillance just this morning. Just this morning, the former FED

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Speaker 1: share woman, speaking to my colleagues Tom Keene Lisa Brandowitz said,

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Speaker 1: of course, Jonathan Pharaoh about the need for fiscal support,

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Speaker 1: the need for this urgent fiscal aid. Take a listen

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Speaker 1: to FED Chair Jenny Yellen. We need support for the economy,

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Speaker 1: both for monetary and fiscal policy, and monetary policy has

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Speaker 1: already done a huge amounted fiscal policy Wes fonts in

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Speaker 1: the United States has been extremely impressive. But um, actually

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Speaker 1: it's it's much larger the fiscal support than what was

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Speaker 1: done after the two thousand and eight nine financial crisis.

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Speaker 1: But um, the fiscal support has now lapsed. That was

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Speaker 1: former Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaking earlier today on Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: And then at the White House we heard from Mark Meadows.

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Speaker 1: Take a listen to what Mark Meadows said about how

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Speaker 1: he's been working around the clock with President Trump on

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Speaker 1: trying to get some more stimulus areas. We're working around

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Speaker 1: the clock. I talked to the President, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: for over an hour yesterday about the stimulus package and

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Speaker 1: what we might be able to come to an agreement on.

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Speaker 1: That was Mark Meadows speaking earlier today at the White House.

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Speaker 1: Al matter, are they going to get a deal or

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Speaker 1: is this just some political theater up there on the hill.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna say no, Kevin. First of all, Donald vote

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Speaker 1: is not part of the deal. That's just the vote

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Speaker 1: for his members. They can say they voted for something

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Speaker 1: and it doesn't represent anything that Pelosi and the Democrats

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Speaker 1: would agree to. What matters is whether she and sector

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Speaker 1: Manuchin and the administration can come to an agreement. And

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Speaker 1: we'll know that by the end of the day tomorrow. Alright, alright,

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Speaker 1: Doug High. I mean, you know, the ins and outs

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Speaker 1: of the halls of Congress. What are we going to

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Speaker 1: see there? Well, right now, I think I think we

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Speaker 1: won't see a whole lot. Obviously, the Senate will have

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Speaker 1: the vote for exactly the reason out that Senate Republicans

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Speaker 1: have to be able to say that they voted for something.

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Speaker 1: But the reality is, we could have had a deal

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Speaker 1: months ago. But it would have taken Nancy Pelosi and

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump to actually speak to each other, to maybe

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Speaker 1: have a meeting or two, and then for Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: to do what he never does, and that's relentlessly work

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Speaker 1: the vote. If Trump were to go all in and

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Speaker 1: work his members, call them on the phone, tweet at

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Speaker 1: them as he is like to do if he's ever

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Speaker 1: met at them, and do that relentlessly, could have gotten

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Speaker 1: a deal months ago. It's just something that Trump has

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Speaker 1: never wanted to do. Why is that? That's a really

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Speaker 1: good point. I mean it, I hear. What's your point is?

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Speaker 1: I mean, this has not been something that the President

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00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 1: has really used a lot of political capital on I mean,

428
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 1: why is that? Honestly, I think it's because he's lazy.

429
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 1: You know, if you go back to the Republican tax bill, now,

430
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 1: selling tax cuts to Republicans is not necessarily a really

431
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 1: hard thing to do. But Trump made a few phone

432
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 1: calls and then basically said, Okay, I've done enough, I'm

433
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 1: out of here. Um. That was able to get through

434
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,479
Speaker 1: it because it's it's a Republican priority, it's always been

435
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 1: a Republican priority. But he typically just does not work

436
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:45,199
Speaker 1: capital hill of art. It's remarkable because you know, you

437
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 1: hear that, and and it really could shift the trajectory

438
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 1: not just the president's ability uh in the polls, but

439
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 1: it really could shift the trajectory of of where the

440
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 1: economy is at it. I mean, it's it's quite remarkable

441
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 1: just to see there not be a fiscal stimulus deal.

442
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:02,719
Speaker 1: That this thing has gone on for as long as

443
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 1: it has. It's disappointing, Kevin Uh, As your earlier clip indicated,

444
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 1: the economy needs it. The stimulus that was butchered in

445
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:16,199
Speaker 1: months ago was run out. There are people who are hurting,

446
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 1: tens of millions of people out of jobs, the unemployment

447
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 1: checks has stopped. Um, it's uncomfortable, but both sides, and

448
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 1: this is very usual when we face a crisis in

449
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 1: this country, both sides have decided, by and large it's

450
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 1: in their interest not to reach an agreement. And that's

451
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,400
Speaker 1: like I said, it's unusual. But that's where we sat.

452
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 1: It's remarkable, just really remarkable. Take it. Listen to what

453
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,640
Speaker 1: else Mark Meadows, President Chief of South, had to say

454
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 1: just about the dynamic and the relationship with Senate Majority

455
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,479
Speaker 1: Leader Mitch McConnell. Here is there are some in the

456
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 1: Senate that would support it. Whether there's enough votes to

457
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 1: get to the sixty vote threshold, Uh, that's up to

458
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,680
Speaker 1: Leader McConnell. But then he went on to talk about

459
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 1: and and Doug. This is what I find really interesting.

460
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 1: He went on to talk about Speaker Pelosi and whether

461
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 1: or not there should have been a deadline and whatnot.

462
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: And he was answering a question, but he says that

463
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: if there is some hope that there could be a

464
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 1: deal on more stimulus funding, it's the talks with He

465
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,439
Speaker 1: put the blame on Speaker Pelosi, which I guess is

466
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 1: anticipated in the back and forth of negotiations, but here

467
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 1: he is on Speaker Pelosi. I thought it was really interesting.

468
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 1: We thought that there should have been a forty eight

469
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:28,120
Speaker 1: day deadline, h forty eight days ago, and and it's

470
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 1: been really the Speaker that continues to be very uh

471
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 1: rigid in her negotiation. So it's the finger pointing. But

472
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 1: I mean, okay, so I asked you Doug about President Trump.

473
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,719
Speaker 1: But is Speaker Pelosi making the calculation that she feels

474
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 1: that she has more political leverage? Is that? Is that

475
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 1: what what her calculation is? Because I don't understand why

476
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 1: either side wouldn't want to get to a deal. Yeah.

477
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 1: My my experiences on Capitol Hill have been the Democrats

478
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 1: typically believe that they can hold out and make make

479
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 1: political pain as excruciating as possible for Republicans and that

480
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 1: Republicans will ultimately cave. Um. I can tell you on

481
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 1: a lot of issues where where we tried to cut

482
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:14,439
Speaker 1: deals with Democrats, Democrats basically said, you give us everything

483
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 1: we want now, or you'll give it to us later.

484
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 1: And they aren't always wrong about that. Does that mesh

485
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 1: with what with your experiences? L I mean to some degree, yes,

486
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 1: because what we're talking about is relief for Americans, and

487
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,400
Speaker 1: those Americans are voters, and so of course politicians want

488
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 1: to be able to help them to the best of

489
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,239
Speaker 1: their abilities. What I think is going on here there

490
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 1: was a little different. I think that the Speaker is

491
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 1: looking ahead and playing the long game. She's thinking about

492
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 1: a Biden victory and a Democratic Senate, And why have

493
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 1: half a loaf now when she can make a beautiful

494
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 1: cake in January and put that on everybody's plate and say,

495
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,479
Speaker 1: look at this incredible stimulus that the Democrats delivered to you.

496
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: We tried with the Republicans and they wouldn't come along.

497
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,159
Speaker 1: Now that you've elected us, here's here, here's what you

498
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: get in return, which in turn then helps all of

499
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 1: her front line members in Purple district run for re

500
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 1: election in two years. It helps President Biden uh with

501
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 1: a booming economy through a strong stimulus, and it mitigates

502
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:19,399
Speaker 1: again for whatever negative economic impacts his tax increases to

503
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,880
Speaker 1: the extent they get enacted have So I think that's

504
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 1: what's going on. Fascinating Al Stays. Doug Stays download The

505
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:30,719
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Down On podcast on Apple iTunes, at Bloomberg dot com,

506
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 1: or by downloading the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

507
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 1: find me on radio dot Com, I Heart Radio and Spotify.

508
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 1: And again just a friendly reminder, we are going to

509
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 1: have special continuing coverage all on Thursday throughout Thursday, UH

510
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 1: Chair anchor to course by our very own David Weston,

511
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 1: who will be interviewing Speaker Pelosi tomorrow. So to be

512
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 1: sure to catch that cross platform on Bloomberg on all

513
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 1: the different platforms, but much more coming up next. I'm

514
00:28:56,160 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 1: Kevin Sili. You're listening to Bloomberg nine one one. This

515
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's Sound On with Kevin Shirley on Bloomberg and

516
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 1: one oh five point seven f M HD two. I'm

517
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 1: Kevin CURRELLI Chief Washington corresponded for Bloomberg Television and for

518
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Shout out to the indefatigable Christine Barratta. She's

519
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 1: the executive producer of sound On. So if you don't

520
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,719
Speaker 1: like what you hear, complaining her of kidding, Christine, I'm kidding,

521
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 1: I'm kidding, she's like rolling her eyes. Uh. And of

522
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 1: course to uh the birthday boy Matteo Shirley Matt Shirley, Shirley,

523
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: Bob's Happy Birthday. Uh, let's check in on the markets.

524
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 1: The US stocks dropped, not because of your birthday, met

525
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 1: US stocks fell to the lowest in almost two weeks.

526
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: This Congress remained part apart on a fresh government spending deal,

527
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 1: denting hopes for a breakthrough before the elections. Treasury slipped

528
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 1: with the dollar. The smp fixt fell more than one

529
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 1: point five percent wow, as opposition to a sizeable aid

530
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 1: package hardened in the Republican controlled Senate. And how Speaker

531
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 1: told her caucus negotiators are still trying to reach a deal.

532
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 1: Future has had advanced overnight on signs of progress toward

533
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 1: a deal and the latest data from China showing its

534
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 1: economy continues to rebound. The ten year treasury yield rose

535
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,959
Speaker 1: above point seven six percent, and the dollar weekend versus

536
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 1: major peel. The panels still with me, The panelist is

537
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 1: still with me. Their names are Al Matter, he's our

538
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 1: dem insider, and Doug High are GOP insider. You know

539
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk obviously in the next block about and

540
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 1: the debate and whatnot, But just I want to I

541
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 1: want to go macro for a second in terms of

542
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 1: the economy, Al because I know, you know you're a

543
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 1: partner at Brownsteing hired Farmer and Shrek, and you know

544
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 1: the macro really really well. I mean just the anxiety

545
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 1: not just from investors but from the business community in

546
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 1: general as they're trying to just get some sense of

547
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 1: certainty out and it just seems like uncertainty is the

548
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 1: only thing that's certain. It's the same. I mean, you

549
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 1: do see some analysts reports suggesting that the Biden victory

550
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 1: would actually calm things, which might seem counterintuitive since Trump

551
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: possessed in tax cuts and deregulation, which is good for business.

552
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 1: But uh, you know, I think they're baking in the

553
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 1: fact that Democrats in charge would have a big stimulus

554
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 1: to be good for the economy. But also, as you say,

555
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 1: there'll be a lot more certainty. Uh, things have been

556
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 1: more normal. Uh, people wouldn't be worried about shifting alliances

557
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 1: around the world and what is the US standing and

558
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 1: whether we're gonna be in or out of twenty different

559
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: trade deals. I think a return to normalcy of some sort,

560
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 1: which may not be craved by every voter, is craved

561
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 1: by the markets. You know, come in here because in

562
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: your circles and I know you're close to Governor Larry Hogan,

563
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: Republican centrist up in Maryland. You know, I mean and

564
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 1: your circles and your and your conservative neck of the woods.

565
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: What what's the conversation. I mean, I don't want to

566
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 1: go too much beyond you know, and and the hypotheticals.

567
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 1: It's not my style, but I mean, what's the conversation

568
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 1: in terms of just the amount of uncertainty that families

569
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 1: across the country are having to deal with. Yeah, look,

570
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 1: it's very difficult times, you know, out there, and you know,

571
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 1: every bit of economic data that you see is depressing.

572
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: You know, if our economy is growing, it's growing, because

573
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 1: it had fallen so far um in the in the

574
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,719
Speaker 1: second and third quarter. But we what we also know

575
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 1: is more businesses are going to close, and especially any

576
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: business that deals at all with with working outdoors. And

577
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 1: we're getting to we're goett to a point where you're

578
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 1: not going to be able to work um and so

579
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 1: we're we're going to see more first time job was claims,

580
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 1: We're going to see more people laid off. And you know,

581
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 1: if we don't pass something that directly helps you know,

582
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 1: just to pick one industry, the airline industry, you're talking

583
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 1: about a lot of jobs that also are being lost

584
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 1: right now in very important UM electoral states. You know,

585
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 1: take the city that have that have airport hubs. I'm

586
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 1: from North Carolina. That's a lot of jobs in Charlotte

587
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 1: that that can be lost. And and so you know,

588
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 1: the uncertainty UM is kind of palpable in what you feel.

589
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 1: You know, when you get outside of Washington, d C.

590
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: In pastival months, I've been in Montana and in North Carolina,

591
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 1: both of which have marquee Senate races. UM, it's the

592
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 1: first thing that you're confronted with when you talk to folks.

593
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 1: You know. I say this because coming up, we're gonna

594
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: check in with just a brilliant, brilliant mind. He's a

595
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 1: he's a biographer for former President Ronald Reagan. Craig Shirley

596
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 1: is his name is the presidential historian, author, founder of

597
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 1: Shirley mcficker Public Affairs. And he's got this great new

598
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 1: book which just won an award, Mary Ball Washington, the

599
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 1: Unsold Story of George Washington's Mother. I can't wait to interview.

600
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna ask him about you know, Trump in

601
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: the and and and what he's done, what it means

602
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 1: for the Republican Party moving forward and all that. But

603
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 1: your your friend, Governor Hogan wrote in Ronald Reagan. He

604
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,319
Speaker 1: wrote in Ronald Reagan. Here I am. I'm reading the

605
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 1: post over the weekend. I'm flipping through and you know,

606
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 1: I'm drinking my coffee. We all know from where. I'm

607
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 1: not gonna say I want to get you in trouble.

608
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 1: But and you know, I'm flipping through the paper and

609
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 1: there it is. Turns off by Trump. Maryland's Republican governor

610
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 1: casts right and vote for Ronald Reagan. I mean, what

611
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 1: do you think, truly, truly, duck high. You and I

612
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 1: have known each other for years. Okay, tell me what

613
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: you would tell me if we were at Martin's. Okay,

614
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 1: what does that discontent abound with hard conservatives at the moment? Well,

615
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,959
Speaker 1: you know, with with full disclosure, I wrote in Paul

616
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 1: Ryan last time I had Ryan was going to be

617
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 1: elected president, and I most likely will write in this

618
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 1: time as well. I think you know there there are

619
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 1: a lot of you know, grantities are more establishment type,

620
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 1: you know Republicans, but who are deeply concerned with the

621
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 1: direction of the party with Donald Trump's leadership. UM and

622
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 1: these are these are are are questions that aren't questions

623
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 1: so much about policy. Those those exist, but what we've

624
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 1: seen in the past six months are core questions about competency.

625
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 1: Larry Hogan has done a terrific job as as the

626
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 1: governor of Maryland in not only working to combat the

627
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:34,800
Speaker 1: spread of COVID, but it very clearly UM announcing and

628
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 1: releasing statistics of people know exactly where UM, where things

629
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 1: are hot spots within the state on on progress that

630
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 1: they're making UM. And so it's not surprising that that

631
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 1: he looked at Donald Trump and said, I can't sign

632
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 1: onto that there are more I think Republicans who will

633
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 1: privately tell you that they think Trump is a disaster

634
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 1: um than than might publicly admit. But but it's a

635
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 1: it's a exed you know, it's really really truly remarkable.

636
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 1: I got like thirty seconds left, but uh, with al

637
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 1: but I want to get your your take on this,

638
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 1: I mean, Governor Hogan wrote in Reagan. Wow, Well, first

639
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 1: of all, where's the courage, you know, the people who

640
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 1: quiet He's no good. I don't have any time for that.

641
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 1: I'm glad Hogan, the governor Hogan, who's my governor by

642
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,400
Speaker 1: the way, said who we voted for and said it proudly.

643
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 1: And what you're gonna see after this election, regardless of

644
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 1: where the Trump wins, is a splintering among Republicans were

645
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 1: willing to take him on and others who continue to

646
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 1: be stup. We gotta leave it right there. But you

647
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 1: know what, I gotta be candid. I think the same

648
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:41,320
Speaker 1: thing is going to happen on the left. Truly. I

649
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 1: don't think Ellen Omar has much in common but Joe

650
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: Biden on on policy, I'm Kevin surreally more. Next, you're

651
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg nine one one, you're listening to Bloomberg

652
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 1: Sound On with Kevin Curley on Bloomberg and one oh

653
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 1: five point seven f M h D two Kevin Sireley'm

654
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 1: the chief Washington Corus for Bloomberg Television, for Bloomberg GERD. Yet,

655
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 1: you know, I've never been to Nashville. I'm a huge

656
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 1: country music fan. I love Keith Urban. Who doesn't love

657
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:12,799
Speaker 1: Keith Urban, Love Florida Georgia Line, love Kelsey Bellerini. You know,

658
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 1: she's like the new star. I love all the country

659
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 1: music stars. But I've never been in Nashville. So that's

660
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,839
Speaker 1: gonna change this week well as of now. Uh, And

661
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 1: I'm headed to Nashville for the third or the second

662
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: and final presidential debate in Nashville, Tennessee. I've been to Knoxville,

663
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 1: I've been all over Tennessee and stuff, but never to Nashville.

664
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 1: So I'm very excited. Maybe I'll go to the Country

665
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: Music Hall of Fame. We'll get to see it from

666
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 1: the outside. I'm assuming it's close. Two knows. Alright, panels here,

667
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 1: and we're gonna do things a little differently because I'm

668
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:47,719
Speaker 1: interviewing a famed presidential historian in our last segment. His

669
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 1: name is Craig Shirley. He's a presidential historian, author and

670
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 1: founder of Shirley McVicker Public Affairs. And he's got this

671
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 1: new book on Mary Ball Washington. And Uh, he's just

672
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 1: he's a presidential historian. He knows everything. So we're gonna

673
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 1: do what's on your radar with the panel now with

674
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 1: Al Modern Democratic strategist and Doug High, senior vice president

675
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 1: of Media at Craft Media and Digital, and gentlemen, we

676
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 1: have so much time in this segment, so take your

677
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,800
Speaker 1: time with this. We really get to unpackage uh and

678
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 1: unlayer all of these things. I'm gonna go first because

679
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 1: here's what's on my radar. It's my colleague Jonathan Levin's

680
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 1: report on the Bloomberg terminal from this morning or this afternoon.

681
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,759
Speaker 1: I apologize this afternoon, and it's headlined COVID hits key

682
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 1: states and demographics two weeks from the vote. So I've

683
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 1: been looking. I don't know if if anyone else is

684
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 1: like this. I do this every morning. I'm checking the virus.

685
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:45,720
Speaker 1: Ever since March. I've been checking the virus tracking and whatnot.

686
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 1: At Johns Hopkins University. They do incredible stuff stuff research

687
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 1: at Johns Hopkins University UM and and all of the

688
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 1: tracking and the COVID nineteen pandemic is disproportionately affecting some crucial,

689
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 1: crucial voters two weeks before election day and UM Wisconsin.

690
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:09,720
Speaker 1: Wisconsin is the most extreme example. It's a swing state

691
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 1: the President Trump carried in two thousand and sixteen, and

692
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 1: it now has America's fourth worst outbreak by per capita cases.

693
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:25,440
Speaker 1: In the past week, Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and

694
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:30,280
Speaker 1: get this, Michigan have all seen difficult stretches and cases

695
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 1: have been creeping back up in recent weeks. Then I

696
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 1: looked at North Carolina and counties with large African American communities,

697
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 1: which helps former President Barack Obama win the state in

698
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight are facing the hardest stretch of

699
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 1: the pandemic. And then in Florida, where President Trump and

700
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 1: Joe Biden have been in a battle for Hispanic votes,

701
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 1: the counties with the highest percentage of them continue to

702
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 1: see the worst rates of new cases. I mean, I

703
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 1: could just go through this entire entire story, but it

704
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 1: really crunches all of the numbers. Nebraska's second congressional district.

705
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 1: Um Like other Midwestern states, Nebraska has missed most most

706
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 1: of the initial onslaught of COVID nineteen. Now it's experiencing

707
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 1: the pandemic and earnest and for the first time, it's

708
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 1: America's fifth worst weekly case total per capita. This is

709
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 1: the second district of Nebraska. Al matter, I mean, I

710
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:30,359
Speaker 1: think we in the media are not really covering the

711
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,879
Speaker 1: local at the local level of COVID nineteen. And that's

712
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 1: why this is on my radar. Nebraska's second congressional district,

713
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 1: That's what's on my radar tonight. Al how do you

714
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 1: think that the turnout is going to be impacted by

715
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 1: the virus. It's interesting and I'm glad you brought this up,

716
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 1: because it's almost as if there are two separate stories

717
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:52,800
Speaker 1: and the media. One story is the election, what's gonna happen.

718
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 1: One story is the virus and where it's breaking out.

719
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,279
Speaker 1: And yet, as you point out, they're actually quite intertwined.

720
00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 1: And if people are afraid of voting, for example, because

721
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 1: they don't want to get sick or they have a comorbidity,

722
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:05,879
Speaker 1: they don't go to the hospital and risk death, Uh,

723
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 1: it might impact their choices. And I've been befuddled to

724
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:12,240
Speaker 1: date as to why that isn't more of a story,

725
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 1: and I think it ought to be, And you've really

726
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 1: hit on something. I don't know the answer, and no

727
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 1: one does. What we know so far is that people

728
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:22,839
Speaker 1: have been voting in record numbers, which may belie the

729
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 1: notion that it will get in their way. But I

730
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 1: worry about it too, particularly in those battlegraph states in Nebraska. No,

731
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 1: it's it's really really remarkable. Dog, I mean truly when

732
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 1: you look at the granular level of this, just how

733
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:38,560
Speaker 1: the virus is impacting the district's dog. Yeah, absolutely. And

734
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 1: you know what we're seeing right now is that it's

735
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 1: already affecting how people are voting. UM. This is why

736
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 1: you're seeing the huge lines. One of the reasons you're

737
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 1: seeing huge lines for early voting, UM, where people don't

738
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 1: want to go on election day where there it looks

739
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 1: there will be even more people. And I'm especially interested

740
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 1: to see, you know, being from North Carolina. UM, you mentioned,

741
00:41:57,239 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 1: you know, African American populations. What are the how is

742
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:02,840
Speaker 1: the African American population in North Carolina is going to

743
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:05,920
Speaker 1: turn out? Compared to two thousand eight and two thousand

744
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:09,760
Speaker 1: twelve and obviously sixteen. In two thousand eight and twelve,

745
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 1: North Carolina was the second closest state each time. Obama

746
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:15,800
Speaker 1: carried it No. Eighth then Romney carried it in twelve

747
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,240
Speaker 1: and the reason it was so close, UM, was African

748
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 1: American turnout was the highest it's ever been. And you

749
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 1: know that, I specifically look at at the HBCUs of

750
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 1: which there are are a belief eleven in the state,

751
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 1: and so the turnout that they had were they were

752
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 1: turnout machines for Obama in a way that they just

753
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 1: weren't for Hillary Clinton. Will they be there this time

754
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 1: for UM, for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. I think

755
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 1: it's going to be a very important question for how

756
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 1: that state will turn out. Remarkable. Okay, well, what's on

757
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:50,440
Speaker 1: your radar. So if you go back to and then

758
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 1: you look at the Bipartisan Senate Intelligence Committee report on

759
00:42:54,520 --> 00:43:00,239
Speaker 1: the election about you will find that the conclude asian

760
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 1: by both Chairman Richard Burr and ranking Member Mark Warner

761
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:07,280
Speaker 1: was that the Russians had a detailed plan for after

762
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton one to so doubt in the American electorate

763
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 1: as to the legitimacy of her victory. They were going

764
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 1: to flood social media, they were going to employ all

765
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 1: sorts of other tactics with fake news and misinformation to immediately, uh,

766
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 1: take away credibility from her victory because that's what they

767
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 1: expected was going to happen. Make no doubt that is

768
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 1: exactly the same thing that planning to do right now.

769
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 1: And if Joe Biden does emerge Victorius, you're going to

770
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:38,560
Speaker 1: see a really aggressive campaign to say he isn't the

771
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 1: legitimate president. And that concerns me gravely because half of

772
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 1: this country doesn't believe that russ is even meddling at all.

773
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 1: That's really fascinating, especially when you look, you know, at

774
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 1: the long game and where we are in March and

775
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 1: where things are after after whatever inauguration occurs in January.

776
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:58,759
Speaker 1: That's a really fascinating one, especially when you when you

777
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,440
Speaker 1: look at umm in Step Farmer, New York City Mayor

778
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:06,360
Speaker 1: Guliani has made publicly to The Daily Beast earlier this

779
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 1: week with regards to the post story on um Hunter Biden, Doug, Hi,

780
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 1: what's on your manar? Look what I'm looking at is

781
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 1: is first, are we going to have a presidential debate

782
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 1: on Thursday? And to Nashville. I've got to go to Nashville, Doug.

783
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: I want to go to Nashville is open, you can go.

784
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:29,280
Speaker 1: The Hall of Fame is opening, to have a debate.

785
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 1: And then to what does Donald Trump do? You know,

786
00:44:32,040 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 1: he's got a lot of criticism for how he how

787
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:36,840
Speaker 1: he handled himself in the first debate, but it's clear

788
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 1: his strategy was to knock Biden off of his feet.

789
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:44,440
Speaker 1: Um to some extent, Donald Trump is clearly behind. He's

790
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 1: going to have to do something to land blows on

791
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. Will it be able to do so? Do

792
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 1: you think you will He's going to try. You know.

793
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,759
Speaker 1: The Trump's problem is he often gets in his own way.

794
00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:58,319
Speaker 1: And I think that's what we saw on on the

795
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:01,760
Speaker 1: first debate, where Joe Biden wasn't particularly strong, but everybody

796
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:05,600
Speaker 1: focused on Donald Trump's demeanor and and performance to the

797
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 1: point that we didn't we stop paying at attention to Biden.

798
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 1: It was all about Trump. He needs this debate to

799
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 1: be about Joe Biden. He needs to score punches. Is

800
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 1: the race over? Is it too late? Do you believe

801
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 1: these polls? Uh, as long as there's another debate, the

802
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 1: race is not over. And um, we just don't know

803
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,439
Speaker 1: what's going to happen. If Joe Biden has a very

804
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 1: bad performance, if Donald Trump is able to draw blood,

805
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 1: this is a very real race. Al I agree. And

806
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 1: if you look at the turf Fallker Group, which is

807
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 1: a Republican polit organization, was the most accurate. They predicted

808
00:45:40,160 --> 00:45:43,959
Speaker 1: Michigan and Pennsylvania going Trump, and they've got this race

809
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 1: much closer than most of the other polls. So I

810
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 1: don't believe it's over at all. You know, I think

811
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 1: that's a really good point. And over the weekend, the

812
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:53,840
Speaker 1: CBS tracking polls has Michigan and Wisconsin, but the president

813
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 1: and striking distance as well. I would pour some cold

814
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:59,919
Speaker 1: water on the notion that President Trump going to conservative

815
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:02,640
Speaker 1: parts of the country is is a sign of weakness.

816
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 1: It's their strategy. I mean, I'm not saying it's gonna

817
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:07,319
Speaker 1: work or not, but that that is their strategy to

818
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 1: go to conservative parts of the country, to try to

819
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 1: run up the margins in traditionally conservative places. I mean,

820
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:17,520
Speaker 1: that's the that's that's the strategy. So I don't I

821
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:19,800
Speaker 1: mean and and and In contrast, biden strategy is to

822
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 1: try to pick off people like Governor Hogan who uh

823
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:27,280
Speaker 1: voted for Ronald Reagan but didn't vote for Joe Biden.

824
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:29,400
Speaker 1: So you know, I mean all of these things. And

825
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 1: I'm not even saying that to be for humor. I'm

826
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 1: saying it because it matters. I mean, that's a vote

827
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 1: loss right there, someone like the constituency, the suburbanite. I

828
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 1: would argue that Governor Larry Hogan, a Republican moderate from Maryland,

829
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:46,160
Speaker 1: what he represents and how he voted, it's remarkable he

830
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 1: didn't he didn't vote for either of them. So where

831
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:52,440
Speaker 1: do people like Governor Hogan who are of that mindset?

832
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 1: Where do they vault? Where do do they show up?

833
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:57,360
Speaker 1: Do they mail in a ballot? Do they go for Biden?

834
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 1: Biden's hoping that they turn out. Biden's hoping that there's

835
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 1: margin and a victory. Will we'll turn out for them? Hey,

836
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 1: al Matter, thank you so much. Partner at Brouncing, Hid

837
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,800
Speaker 1: Farburn Trak, thank you so much. Always so interesting, democratic

838
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:10,360
Speaker 1: strategist and Doug High, Senior vice president of Media Craft

839
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 1: Media and Digital, former Deputy chief of staff, it's former

840
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 1: House Majority Leader Eric Kenner. I'm Kevin Sirelli Morton Act.

841
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg nine and nine one. You're listening

842
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Sound On with Kevin on Bloomberg and one

843
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 1: Old five point seven f M h D two. I'm

844
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:31,440
Speaker 1: Kevin Suilly, Chief Washington correspondent from Bloomberg Television and from

845
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Friendly reminder, folks, we're gonna have special coverage

846
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:38,920
Speaker 1: on a Thursday of the third debate, second presidential Debate,

847
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 1: live from Nashville, Tennessee. And get this tomorrow. David Weston

848
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's David Weston is gonna sit down or not. They're

849
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 1: gonna interview virtually, uh speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi,

850
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 1: all the more interesting given the red headline across the

851
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:55,840
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal within the last sixty minutes or so, that

852
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 1: says Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is going to hold

853
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:02,240
Speaker 1: a vote on those fiscal stimulus plant on the fiscal

854
00:48:02,239 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 1: stimulus deal. But you know, I don't. It's not expected

855
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 1: to move anywhere. I just want to, you know, be,

856
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 1: I don't want to be I'm an optimist, but I'm not.

857
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:12,799
Speaker 1: I'm not overly optimistic. I say this all the time

858
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 1: on the show and in our staff meetings with um

859
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:18,759
Speaker 1: not Shirley as well as uh Christine Baratta. I said,

860
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 1: we need to bring in more historians because I think

861
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:26,680
Speaker 1: that historians offer a perspective on the moment that quite honestly,

862
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 1: we in the media, miss I, I love the media

863
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 1: a minute, right, Okay, we're the first documentary, you know,

864
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:35,759
Speaker 1: we're the first line of hit the first draft of history. There,

865
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:38,879
Speaker 1: it is the first draft of history. But historians are

866
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:42,400
Speaker 1: able to be much more stoic in their prose and

867
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 1: more reflectionary and to and to resurface American history in

868
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:53,800
Speaker 1: a way that reminds us of our core beliefs as

869
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 1: a country. His name is Craig Shirley and it is

870
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 1: his first time on the program. Is a presidential historian,

871
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:05,920
Speaker 1: author and founder of Shirley McVicker Public Affairs. His latest

872
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 1: book is called Mary Ball Washington, The Untold Story of

873
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 1: George Washington's mother. Uh. It's a book that I came

874
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:16,440
Speaker 1: familiar with. The book that I became most familiar with.

875
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 1: His is December nineteen thirty one, Days That Changed America

876
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 1: and Saved the World. It's, of course the New York

877
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:25,360
Speaker 1: Times bestseller came out in two thousand and eleven, and

878
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:28,319
Speaker 1: it's about the attack on Pearl Harbor, uh and the

879
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:31,800
Speaker 1: effects on the American people. Craig, thanks so much for

880
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:35,920
Speaker 1: joining us. I want to get your perspective on where

881
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 1: the two parties go from here after this election. Sir,

882
00:49:41,480 --> 00:49:47,080
Speaker 1: thanks for throwing me a softball question. Don't tell the

883
00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:52,759
Speaker 1: team go ahead? Well, it really depends on on on

884
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 1: who wins. I mean winning dictates everything. The Republican Party

885
00:49:57,640 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 1: lost in sixty four was in the wilderness for several

886
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 1: years before re emerged in sixty six as a somewhat

887
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:08,400
Speaker 1: change party. It was really in the wilderness after seventy

888
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 1: six because after Nixon Watergate, the changes in the Republican

889
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:18,360
Speaker 1: Party uh and re emerged in is this distinctly different

890
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 1: more uh federalist, less uh devoted to big government as

891
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:28,759
Speaker 1: as like in the brand of Eisenhower and Nixon, more populist.

892
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 1: But I don't mean that in a Donald Trump's sort

893
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:35,800
Speaker 1: of way. Um. Uh. And so the party, the Democratic Party,

894
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:37,879
Speaker 1: It's interesting, actually it's a very good question. I'll tell

895
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 1: you why. Because the Democratic Party is more or less

896
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:43,719
Speaker 1: the same party has been since ninety two. Um. There

897
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:46,399
Speaker 1: are there are little eddies and currents along the way,

898
00:50:46,880 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 1: um you know. For instance, uh, Bill Clinton uh introduced

899
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:54,200
Speaker 1: the New Democrat in which was a break from the past,

900
00:50:54,600 --> 00:50:57,560
Speaker 1: which was break from somewhere to the big government philosophy

901
00:50:57,600 --> 00:50:59,839
Speaker 1: of the of the Democratic Party. But the Democratic Party

902
00:50:59,920 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 1: is more or less the party of government since nineteen

903
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 1: to The Republican Party, on the other hand, has been

904
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:10,480
Speaker 1: all over the map. Um uh it after thirty two

905
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:15,799
Speaker 1: it became a also a government party, although not as

906
00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:20,560
Speaker 1: devoted as the Democratic Party, but nonetheless it was voted.

907
00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 1: Eisenhower used government to build the Interstate Highway system. UH.

908
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 1: Nixon used government, um you know in the you know,

909
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 1: creating the you know, the ocean and other regulatory agencies, UM,

910
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 1: Environmental regulatory agencies c PA, things like that. UMS. So

911
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 1: the Republican Party has kind of a split personality disorder.

912
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:51,239
Speaker 1: Uh and only after nineteen eighty didn't really emerge with

913
00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:58,760
Speaker 1: a cohistent, consistent, coherent philosophy. Uh that was anti big government,

914
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 1: was more centered on the end of it had its

915
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:04,319
Speaker 1: roots in the Enlightenment, in the Age of reason. Uh.

916
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:09,440
Speaker 1: That government, uh could government? You know is Reagan? What

917
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 1: said is this that if none among you is capable

918
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:15,719
Speaker 1: of governing himself, and who among you is capable of

919
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:18,760
Speaker 1: being governed by somebody else? You know? And I find

920
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:20,960
Speaker 1: it fascinating. Craig Shirley's with us. We're thrilled to have

921
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 1: his time. He's a presidential historian, best selling author. You know,

922
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:27,400
Speaker 1: you mentioned Reagan, and you know Reagan better than anybody.

923
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:29,680
Speaker 1: I mean, in terms of how much you've studied him,

924
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 1: in terms of how much you've written about him. Compare

925
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:36,439
Speaker 1: him and contrast him, and I know this is enough

926
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:40,200
Speaker 1: to write a book, but compare and contrast what Donald

927
00:52:40,200 --> 00:52:43,840
Speaker 1: Trump has in common with him at this particular moment,

928
00:52:43,960 --> 00:52:47,239
Speaker 1: because his back is up against a political wall. Where

929
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:50,360
Speaker 1: was Reagan at this point in his re election bid?

930
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 1: Re election, he was coasting. Uh, he had kind of

931
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:59,560
Speaker 1: muffed the first debate. Although that's kind of an overstatement,

932
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 1: you know, I'll be because you know, is that the

933
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:05,720
Speaker 1: national media likes to focus on shorthand explanations for eddies

934
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 1: and currents in history, and that that you know, Reagan

935
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:12,440
Speaker 1: didn't do have a good first debate. Actually he did, Okay,

936
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 1: It's just that he wasn't he wasn't the normal rake

937
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:18,399
Speaker 1: and he'd been stuffed with facts and figures and things

938
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:21,319
Speaker 1: like that, and so Reagan, Reagan was was it was

939
00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 1: a storyteller. Reagan used anecdotes to get his point across.

940
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 1: He didn't he wasn't he wasn't a technocrat. He was

941
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 1: never comfortable with that stuff anyway. And he had some advisers,

942
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:36,839
Speaker 1: Dick Darman and David Gergen and others who tried to

943
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 1: remake this, you know, seventy three year old man into

944
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:42,880
Speaker 1: a technocrat. And he's he didn't come to the the President

945
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:45,560
Speaker 1: of States and knows something about politics. I know something

946
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:48,880
Speaker 1: about governing more than these guys did. But by the

947
00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:52,399
Speaker 1: second debate he actually, uh, he did an okay, job,

948
00:53:52,400 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 1: it wasn't great, but he did. But he you know,

949
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:57,840
Speaker 1: he issued the sound bite heard around the world about

950
00:53:57,880 --> 00:53:59,840
Speaker 1: I'm not going to make an issue of this campaign

951
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 1: of my opponent's youth and an experience, and that was

952
00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:04,800
Speaker 1: that was the sound bite, and that was it. Um.

953
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 1: But after that, it was I think the three weeks left,

954
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 1: and by that point he was he was cruising to

955
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:12,759
Speaker 1: a re election over Walter Mondal. And of course he

956
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:15,680
Speaker 1: wont to fort to Night for to nine state landslide

957
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 1: percent of the vote. Um. And uh so he was

958
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:23,840
Speaker 1: not looking over his shoulder at walter Mondale at this point. Okay,

959
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 1: final question, we only got two minutes left. Have we

960
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:28,839
Speaker 1: got to keep it some somewhat tight. But let's say

961
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 1: President and I don't like don't hypotheticals, but it's a

962
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:33,960
Speaker 1: question on everybody's mind. President. Let's say President Trump loses,

963
00:54:34,560 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 1: does he run again? I mean what in historical context,

964
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:43,240
Speaker 1: he's a fascinating political figure, Craig for for the future,

965
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:46,879
Speaker 1: the Republican Grover Cleveland over Cleveland. We're gonna be hearing

966
00:54:46,920 --> 00:54:49,880
Speaker 1: a lot about Grover. Go ahead, Yeah, he ran again,

967
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:53,440
Speaker 1: but he won. But I don't see Trump for four

968
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:56,000
Speaker 1: years from now, he's going to be, you know, near

969
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 1: eighty years old, and uh, I just don't see him

970
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 1: running for nine. I think, honestly, is that there's going

971
00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:04,720
Speaker 1: to be a big, big debate inside the Republican Party,

972
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:08,319
Speaker 1: as there was after sixty sixty four, as there was

973
00:55:08,400 --> 00:55:14,040
Speaker 1: after seventy four and seventy six, as there was after uh,

974
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 1: and as it was after George Bush, after president of

975
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 1: Barack Obama one? What does the party stand for? And

976
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:24,319
Speaker 1: if he loses, the party is going to go into

977
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 1: the wilderness again and try to determine what it stands for.

978
00:55:27,360 --> 00:55:33,040
Speaker 1: Who's your favorite president? Who's your favorite president? George Washington?

979
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:35,320
Speaker 1: And and that's what your new book is on Mary

980
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:38,359
Speaker 1: Ball Washington, the untold story of George Washington's mother. I

981
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:40,640
Speaker 1: love it. I cannot wait to read it. Congrats on

982
00:55:40,640 --> 00:55:43,560
Speaker 1: that award that you just got. Uh, thank you, Ken,

983
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:46,440
Speaker 1: of course, no, but thank you so much, sir for

984
00:55:46,520 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 1: your time. Craig Shirley he is a friend of this program,

985
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:52,600
Speaker 1: a presidential historian and author, founder of Shirley McVicker Public

986
00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:55,200
Speaker 1: Affairs and his latest book, I cannot wait. I can't

987
00:55:55,200 --> 00:55:57,440
Speaker 1: stress this enough. Go get it. I don't have it yet,

988
00:55:57,520 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 1: Mary Ball Washington The Untold story of George Washington's mother.

989
00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:03,839
Speaker 1: Craig Shirley, thank you so much for stopping bye. Please

990
00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 1: come back on, sir any time you would like. Janius,

991
00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 1: I love talking to historians because they have they have

992
00:56:10,560 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 1: like a an encyclopediatic Is that a word? They have

993
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:17,480
Speaker 1: an encyclopedia mind where they can recall, like oh yeah,

994
00:56:17,560 --> 00:56:19,480
Speaker 1: not debate they did this. I'm like, yeah, I know.

995
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 1: I not along because I didn't know that. I didn't

996
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:25,320
Speaker 1: know what I learned. I learned when I talked to historians.

997
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:30,240
Speaker 1: It's not talking points anyway. Grateful for that. I'm Kevin's

998
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:33,359
Speaker 1: really grateful for you. Thanks for listening. I'm the Chief

999
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 1: Washington correspondent from Woomberg TV and radio girl listening to

1000
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 1: Woomberg one