1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here, 2 00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:06,360 Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election. 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,760 Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade 5 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent 6 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 2: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about, 7 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 2: it just means the absolute world to have your support. 8 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show. 9 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,479 Speaker 1: So one thing that we've been paying close attention to 10 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: and reading into it whatever you can is the early 11 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: vote results. And no state have they been more striking 12 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: than the Sun belt state of Nevada. Let's put this 13 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:39,199 Speaker 1: up on the screen. And Nevada also benefits from the 14 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: fact you got John Ralston, who everyone agrees is like 15 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: legit in analyzing. 16 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:45,200 Speaker 3: The early vote. 17 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 1: So he updates every day his early voting blog, and 18 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 1: at this point, shocking given previous historical trends, Republicans actually 19 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: have an advantage in terms. 20 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,080 Speaker 3: Of the early vote. 21 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: So they have successfully convinced their voters to vote early. 22 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 1: There's been a huge surge in terms of the rural 23 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: areas in particular. In fact, he's describing this time he 24 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: normally talks about a Clark County, which is Las Vegas 25 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: firewall for Democrats. He's talking now about a rural firewall, 26 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: a massive Republican advantage where there's been extremely high turnout 27 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 1: in those rural, heavily conservative areas. In Washoe County, which 28 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: I believe is where Reno is, it's a swing urban county. 29 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: Republicans have a four point lead that's just above their 30 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 1: registration average in Clark County. The firewall is that just 31 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 1: five thousand votes, just two and a half points in 32 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 1: a place where Democrats have a nearly seven percent registration edge. 33 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: So so far, and again it's early days. None of 34 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: this reads into which way the large number of independents 35 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 1: are going to vote. None of this reads in too 36 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: obviously what's going to happen on election day. But the 37 00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: early indications for Republicans are quite strong. I think Nevada 38 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 1: is stronger than in any of the other states where 39 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: we have significant early vote to take a look at. 40 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 1: And one of the theories for why Republicans could be 41 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: outperforming in Nevada in particular comes down to the issue 42 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 1: of housing. Let's put this up on the screen. Obviously, 43 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: this is something We've been focused on for a long time, 44 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: just how much of a pain point the unaffordable housing 45 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,119 Speaker 1: market has become for so many voters. 46 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 3: New York Times did a great ride up here. 47 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: They said, as Harris courts, the Sunbelt housing costs stand 48 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: in her way, and they compare the skyrocketing housing costs 49 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 1: not just you know, to buy a home, but also rents, 50 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 1: which is driven and fueled by a number of factors. 51 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: They compare that to a similar political earthquake as the 52 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 1: exodus of steel companies or auto manufacturings manufacturers that left 53 00:02:56,360 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 1: workers reeling in industrial Midwestern So I do think if 54 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:06,119 Speaker 1: you see a big divergence between the type of results 55 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: that come out in the sun Belt states Nevada in particular, 56 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,359 Speaker 1: versus those quote unquote blue wall states in the industrial Midwest, 57 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 1: I do think housing is going to be a big 58 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 1: part of that. 59 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 2: I love a story is super interesting. A couple of takeaways. 60 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 2: Number one is actually inside the story they court and 61 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 2: talk about people who are specifically pissed off in Vegas 62 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 2: about California implants, and it made me think about this 63 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 2: kind of blue influx theory and whether the people are like, oh, 64 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 2: these states are all going to turn blue. But they 65 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 2: could actually have like an interesting net effect where you 66 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 2: have a blue voter come in, but that makes people 67 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 2: really hate them and get angry and then vote Republican. 68 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 2: And if you think about it, it's actually a real 69 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 2: like elite versus non elite dynamic where you have people 70 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 2: who are predominant at least a lot more rich than 71 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 2: the average citizen in Nevada, Texas wherever, coming in, driving 72 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 2: up housing prices, and then those people feel a lot 73 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 2: of the displacement, the anger, and they could very much 74 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 2: respond in the same way that the blue Wall voters 75 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 2: did whenever they voted against Democrats on NAFTA, on trade policy, immigration, 76 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 2: et cetera. I actually really could see a similar dynamic there. 77 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 2: What would probably change things is you still have enough 78 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 2: traditional blue voters and others who could offset that. But 79 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 2: the tension means that it's a real like class dynamic 80 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 2: that comes down to the most fundamental question of housing. 81 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 2: I also found the trouble for Harris here was when 82 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:35,559 Speaker 2: voters were presented by this New York Times reporter about 83 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 2: Harris's housing proposal. There's a deep cynicism where they're like, 84 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 2: I don't think any of that's going to happen. Yeah, 85 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 2: I mean, and look are they wrong, especially if there's 86 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 2: divided government. You know, I'm going to do a home 87 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,279 Speaker 2: monologue about this. You need an Act of Congress to 88 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:47,840 Speaker 2: have that. What do you think is going to use? 89 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 2: The US Senate full of Republican is going to pass that. No, 90 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 2: it's not going to happen, right. The best you could 91 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,279 Speaker 2: hope for is some Fannie Mae Freddie Mack whatever, like 92 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,799 Speaker 2: loosening of regulations and maybe some stuff through the Housing 93 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 2: and Urban Development Agency. But that's about it, right, Yeah. 94 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 1: I mean, listen, if we're comparing just the policy landscape, 95 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 1: Harris has talked about Real Page. The Biden administration is 96 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:13,160 Speaker 1: going after Real Page, which is the cartel that has 97 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 1: helped you spike rents in places like Las Vegas and 98 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: other places around the country. She has, you know, talked 99 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,600 Speaker 1: a lot about this plan to help people with that 100 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:25,599 Speaker 1: down payment, which has become a major stumbling block for 101 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 1: people who don't have like intergenerational wealth to be able 102 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: to go to mommy and daddy and be like, hey, 103 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:31,479 Speaker 1: help me with my down payment. You know. 104 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 3: So she does have specific plans, but I think. 105 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: The deeper problem for her is just like people are 106 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 1: unhappy now with how things are and the Democrats are 107 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 1: in power. 108 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 3: Like, it doesn't go deeper than that. 109 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: And you know, I guess the flip side of this 110 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 1: is we did just look at polling that says that 111 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 1: voters in general trust her more on housing and the 112 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: type of working class voter that you have overwhelmingly in 113 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,600 Speaker 1: Las Vegas and Nevada in general, tends to be the 114 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: service sector workers who that's like the as Matt Carr 115 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:08,679 Speaker 1: called them, the quote unquote like democratic working class versus 116 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 1: the like industrial and manufacturing hard hat type of workers, 117 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 1: which is why Nevada has stayed in the Democratic camp 118 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 1: for all these years, even as a lot of you know, 119 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 1: the working class has realigned. So those would be some 120 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 1: of the things that they're helpful about. But you know, 121 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: I when you think about housing and how much the 122 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:35,719 Speaker 1: escalating prices have squeezed people, there is maybe no place 123 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 1: in the country that has been harder hat hit then 124 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 1: Las Vegas because they I don't know, if you guys 125 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 1: remember after the Great Recession, massive housing bus there, you know, 126 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 1: just utter devastation. Then you had all of this permanent 127 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 1: capital come in and buy up a bunch of these homes, 128 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 1: turn them into rentals, you know, jack up the prices. 129 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: Then you had the brutal hit that they took or 130 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: in particular during the pandemic, which meant that people's incomes 131 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 1: were lower than they were before. Many of those people 132 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 1: feel like they really never recovered from the hit the 133 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: service sector took during the pandemic. So you have a 134 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 1: lot of economic turmoil concentrated. 135 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 3: Specifically in this state. 136 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 1: And again, you know, you could talk about like and 137 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: I did interview someone here who was like struggling with 138 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 1: all of these things, but was like, I think Kamala 139 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 1: is the person that would be better positioned turn these 140 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 1: things around. So I'm sure that sentiment does exist among some. 141 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: But if you've been dealt a rough hand over these 142 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 1: past four years and it was Democrats in charge, you 143 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: can see how that's a compelling argument on the Trump 144 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: CACHEMPST A side. 145 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 2: It gets to people. You know, when people are like, well, Calmo, 146 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:47,679 Speaker 2: when people took Comma more in housing, very few people 147 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 2: are like I'm going to the ballot box because my 148 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 2: ass is too expensive. They're like, well, housing makes me 149 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 2: pissed off, and I'm pissed off, And that makes me 150 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,119 Speaker 2: distrust the party in power, right, So they don't think 151 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 2: directly in terms of that, and that is you know, 152 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 2: that's really comes down to the whole like vibe conversation, 153 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 2: I do understand it, I really do, you know, for 154 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 2: in terms of the frustration, especially in Nevada and in 155 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 2: North Carolina too. We've talked here about Asheville and the 156 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 2: explosion there. But you know, I always say Raleigh and 157 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 2: Charlotte are two of the most booming cities in the 158 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 2: United States. Atlanta, you know, Georgia today is a battleground. Atlanta. 159 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 2: The amount of influx they've had from New York and 160 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 2: from a lot of the East Coast is astounding in 161 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 2: terms of the population change in Georgia, in the entire Sunbelt, 162 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 2: you know, Florida included, we're talking about some of the 163 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 2: biggest internal migration since World War Two that we've seen. 164 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 2: So these places have changed dramatically in the last five years. 165 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 2: Where I'm from Texas, you don't even recognize it. Austin 166 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 2: in particular. 167 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 1: So you know, there's almost like a reverse dynamic in 168 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,719 Speaker 1: the Montana Senate race, which is John Tester is the 169 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: Democratic incomment and the most endangered Democratic incomment, most of 170 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 1: the Poles seem to indicate like he's not going to 171 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: hang out, but you never know his opponent. What's his name, Tim? 172 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 2: She he yeah, she first name Tim. 173 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 1: I'm making that up anyway, She Yeah, he got caught. 174 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 3: We talked about this before. This has been on the 175 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:06,560 Speaker 3: record before. 176 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: He claimed he had sustained like a war wound and 177 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 1: been like shot in battle in Afghanistan, I think. And 178 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: it turns out he shot himself accidentally in a national park, 179 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 1: which we know because they had to file an incident 180 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: report because you're not allowed to discharge a firearm in 181 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,440 Speaker 1: a national park. And the park ranger just came out 182 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 1: and went on the record to be like, yeah, I 183 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 1: was there, this is what happened. Like he did not, 184 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: he was not wounded in battle. He shot himself when 185 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 1: he was in a national park. So anyway, you never 186 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: know what's gonna happen in that race. At the bottom line, 187 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 1: But to get back to my original point about housing, 188 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 1: Montana has seen. 189 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:41,119 Speaker 2: Oh huge, bows huge they call it bos Angelists or whatever. 190 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:46,079 Speaker 1: Huge influx, but it's largely conservatives who have moved into 191 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 1: the state. And she he is one of those people 192 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: who was part of the influx into the state. Now, 193 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: of course, he frames this as like, listen, I wish 194 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 1: I was born in Montana because I love Montana, but 195 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 1: you know, I'm a business owner and creating job in 196 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:03,920 Speaker 1: the state blah blah blah. And Tester is who's you know, 197 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 1: a long time born and raised as a Farmer's the 198 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 1: big boys got you know, several fingers that he lost 199 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: in like a farming accent. 200 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:10,439 Speaker 3: You know, he's legit. 201 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 1: He's a legit Montana, which is why he is able 202 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 1: to hand ont hang onto the state as long as 203 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: he has. He's making the case of like these outsiders, 204 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: like people who are from Montana really understand Montana, like 205 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:24,320 Speaker 1: they trust me, and that's why, you know, I'm going 206 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:26,800 Speaker 1: to represent your interests, and he represents all these people 207 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:28,839 Speaker 1: who are coming in and changing your way of life. 208 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 1: So it's kind of an interesting like reverse dynamic going 209 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 1: out there's interest. 210 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 2: Yeah. By the way, I love Montana too. 211 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 3: Never it's the only states I've never been to. 212 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 2: Oh my god, I would like to go with Donovan. Beautiful. 213 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:43,319 Speaker 2: It is natural. Beauty wise, it's all up there with California. 214 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 2: They have so many incredible national parks. 215 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: I highly recommend it, but yeah, they don't shoot yourself 216 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 1: at one of them. 217 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 2: Sure. And the people there, though, I think they make 218 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 2: it known they're like, stop coming here from California, We're 219 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:53,680 Speaker 2: sick of you. And they don't have like a million 220 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 2: people who live there. 221 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's like it's like because a lot of 222 00:10:57,080 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 1: the people who transplant it there are like right wing 223 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:03,080 Speaker 1: California who are disgusted with the like liberal direction of this. 224 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 2: So if I were them too, i'd be mad. You know, 225 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,319 Speaker 2: you live in this pristine wilderness and such great and 226 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:09,839 Speaker 2: you have all these rich people who come in and 227 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 2: buy all the land. I know there's a lot of 228 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 2: beef between like private landowners and hunters because it's long 229 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:17,079 Speaker 2: time been like. 230 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 3: A big wells which I do. 231 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, no, exactly, And actually, if you look at the 232 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,319 Speaker 2: most desirable places in Montana, it has some of the 233 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 2: most expensive real estate in the entire country. For those 234 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 2: of you who also like trolls, Zillow and dream Book. 235 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 1: All right, let's go and move on to this story 236 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 1: that we just wanted to put on your radar because 237 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: there are new charges that just dropped against three individuals 238 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: associated with Abercrombie and Fitch. But the former CEO in particular, 239 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: Michael Jeffries, has been charged along with his longtime partner 240 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 1: Matthew Smith, and they're sort of enabler James Jacobson. Let's 241 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 1: go and put this up on the screen from the 242 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 1: Department of Justice, they say in the headline, former CEO 243 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 1: of Abercromie and Fitch and two others charged with sex 244 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 1: traffic an interstate prostitution. Let me tell you the details 245 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: here are as horrifying as you can imagine I'm going 246 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:14,559 Speaker 1: to summarize, but effectively, the allegations are that over decades 247 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 1: these three ran a sex trafficking ring where effectively they 248 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:26,959 Speaker 1: would lure in these young, aspiring male models and promised them, 249 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 1: you know, jobs with modeling with Abercrombie and Fitch, which 250 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 1: is a big deal, you know for a model who's 251 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 1: struggling and trying to make it. But they would hold 252 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: out to them that in order to have all of 253 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:43,560 Speaker 1: these career prospects, they would need to engage in a 254 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 1: variety of sex acts. Even beyond that, they would threaten 255 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 1: them with ruining their career if they didn't comply. They 256 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 1: required all of them to sign non disclosure agreements so 257 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: that they felt like they couldn't possibly come forward saying anything. 258 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: According to the indictment, on more than one occasion when 259 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 1: men did not or could not consent, these men violated 260 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: their bodily integrity by subjecting them or continuing to subject 261 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 1: them to invasive, sexual and violent contact by body parts 262 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: and other objects. Some of the other details here are 263 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: I mean, it's just it's exactly what you imagine. These 264 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 1: young men who are desperate, who are trying to make it, 265 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:27,680 Speaker 1: who are often financially incredibly stressed. This is the they think, 266 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,680 Speaker 1: this is like the make or break moment for them, 267 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:34,239 Speaker 1: and the first person they meet is this guy Jacobson, 268 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 1: who apparently and a number of the men in a 269 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 1: BBC investigation told a very similar story. Their first meeting 270 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 1: would be with him and he would coerce them into 271 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 1: oral sex and they would think, Okay, well that was horrible, 272 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 1: but that's like it's probably just this one creep and 273 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: I got past that. Now I have my opportunity to 274 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 1: meet with the CEO. This is going to be where 275 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 1: my modeling aspirations come to fruition. And then they go 276 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 1: to one of these events and it's even what they're 277 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: subjected to and forced into is even worse. And you know, Sager, 278 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 1: is this an iconic brand, iconic brant. And we've been 279 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 1: hearing some you know, like rumors about what was really 280 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 1: going on there because I don't know. I'm obviously I'm 281 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:20,200 Speaker 1: significantly older than Saga. I remember when, like the catalog 282 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 1: would come out for Abercrombie and Fitch, and even at 283 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: the time, you'd be looking at it and are like, 284 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 1: these people are not even wearing clothes like this all 285 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: like naked men. 286 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 3: What's going on here? How are they even? 287 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 1: And that was their whole thing, and obviously from a 288 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 1: financial perspective, they made a huge impact on the culture. 289 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 1: There were a lot of allegations already about discrimination in 290 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 1: terms of basically they wanted a specific like white, preppy 291 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 1: look even for their sales associates in the stores. 292 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 3: If you had if you were. 293 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 1: Black or brown or you know, Muslim and wearing headscarf, 294 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 1: that was not allowed at all. You weren't allowed to 295 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: have dreadlocks like. They were very particular about and discriminatory 296 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:04,359 Speaker 1: and wanting this very specific look. But obviously the allegations 297 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 1: here go far beyond what we had learned specifically from 298 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 1: this like Abercrombie and Fitch documentary. 299 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, previously, the documentary gave a lot of this stuff 300 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 2: away and the like you read from some of the indictment. 301 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 2: We have it there. You should go read it for yourself. 302 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 2: It is horrifying and honestly, the only thing I'm surprised 303 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 2: is that it took a long time. And I do 304 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 2: think it's important because what it does is it highlights 305 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 2: like so much of the you know, there's a lot 306 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 2: of nostalgia these days for the old days and like, oh, 307 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 2: things were better in the nineties and the two thousands. 308 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 2: By and large, I do mostly agree with that, but 309 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 2: there was a dark side to the culture and to 310 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 2: all of that. We actually have some of the testimony 311 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 2: from some of these people. Let's go ahead and play 312 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 2: D three please. You know that you're getting close. When 313 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 2: the Dire hit with the smell of agricamy. 314 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 1: Think that club beat and their chested guys. 315 00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 3: It was such a pop culture phenomenon. 316 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 2: It was an all American look. I think he's I 317 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 2: think he's a predator, and I don't think that's what 318 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 2: the public has seen. 319 00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 4: I was overwhelmed, Like I mean, I've never seen anything 320 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 4: like this what I'd. 321 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 2: Like to talk about is being lied to, tricked and 322 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 2: traded like a commodity. 323 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 4: Me too has empowered women to speak out about sexual abuse. 324 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 4: Now these men say they want to be heard too. 325 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 2: I think it's rarely considered that men could be a 326 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 2: victim of anything. 327 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 4: They face a double stigma, and I don't think that 328 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 4: men have quite had their me too movement. 329 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 2: So you can see, you know, in terms of the 330 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 2: testiment is terrible in terms of the way that they 331 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 2: were treated, and there was definitely a lot of different 332 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 2: way of discussion. I'm sure everybody's been seen on Netflix. 333 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 2: This has all comes to light again from the Menendez case, 334 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 2: you know, all the discussion around sexual assault and how 335 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 2: it involves men in the way that cultural attitudes have 336 00:16:57,480 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 2: shifted and changed around them. Because it does say something 337 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 2: that this wasn't even taken seriously or investigated or thought 338 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:04,439 Speaker 2: about at the times. And I mean this was just 339 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 2: the two thousands that earned nineteen nineties. They were obviously 340 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:10,879 Speaker 2: tried in the nineteen eighties, So it is certainly it's 341 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:15,400 Speaker 2: really sad. And what it does show us too was 342 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 2: the way that they got away with that for so 343 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 2: long inside the industry. And it was such an open secret. 344 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 2: Were talked about Ditty yesterday, We've talked about Weinstein, and 345 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 2: I think that's the part that really gets me, is 346 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 2: about how open of the knowledge is and it's still 347 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 2: allowed to perpetuate and worse, you know, there's just more victims. People. 348 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:33,399 Speaker 2: These are eighteen nineteen year old guys and you know, 349 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:35,360 Speaker 2: you don't even reason really awful stuff. But they also 350 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,399 Speaker 2: had to go through like it was they were getting 351 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 2: forcibly injected, you know at some. 352 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 3: Point exactly exactly. 353 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:41,880 Speaker 2: Yeah. 354 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: One who was interview, who can put this BBC investigation 355 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: up on the screen, said the experience, I think it 356 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 1: broke me. I think this stole any ounce of innocence 357 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: I had left. It mentally messed me up. But with 358 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 1: the language I now have today, I can sit here 359 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,199 Speaker 1: and tell you I was taken advantage of it. And 360 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 1: I think even today, yeah, it takes a lot of 361 00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:01,199 Speaker 1: courage to come forward against Actually I think as a 362 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 1: man and say, you know, I was raped, I was assaulted, 363 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 1: I was taken advantage of And I. 364 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 3: Was thinking the same as you. 365 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 1: Sagur like Diddy ran that allegedly ran this criminal enterprise 366 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 1: where you know, similar levels of threats, coercion, similar promises 367 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 1: of like, hey baby, this is going to make your career. 368 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 1: My friend Torre reported on R and B singer Cassie 369 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 1: who was in that horrible video being beaten and dragged 370 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:33,359 Speaker 1: in a hotel hallway. He put on Ice her album 371 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 1: for like a decade just to sort of string her 372 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 1: along of like, oh, you know, of course it's coming. 373 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 1: Of course it's going to be great, and stole from 374 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 1: her so much. Obviously, you know, the abuse is horrifying, 375 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 1: but also he stole from her the prime years of 376 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,880 Speaker 1: her career. And you see a similar dynamic here where 377 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 1: you've got these three men who were saying to these 378 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 1: young guys like I hold the keys to the kingdom 379 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:56,919 Speaker 1: and just do what I want you to do and 380 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,879 Speaker 1: it's all going to be fine, and using that position 381 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 1: power to enable. 382 00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 3: Decades and decades of abuse. 383 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 1: Very similar thing with Harvey Weinstein, right, very similar thing 384 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 1: where you know, yeah, the casting couch, right, you come in, 385 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:13,120 Speaker 1: you do what I want you to do, and I'm 386 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 1: going to put you in a movie. And if you don't, 387 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: by the way, I'm going to ruin your life. And 388 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 1: I have the level of power that can make that 389 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:24,680 Speaker 1: happen also say, did you watch the Nickelodeon documentary. 390 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, I will come of it. 391 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 3: Yeah they didn't. 392 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 1: They alluded to and there were some specific things that 393 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 1: happened there in terms of like sexual abuse of these kids. 394 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,680 Speaker 1: But again it's like, hey, this is kid Central. Your 395 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 1: kid is going to be a star, they're going to 396 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 1: be famous, your family's going to be fine using that 397 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:44,679 Speaker 1: position of power, and also reminded me, of course of 398 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:47,919 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Epstein, who part of how he would more in 399 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 1: young girls is through his association with Les Wexner, who 400 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 1: was with Victoria's Secret, and he held himself out as 401 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 1: I'm a modeling agent, and you know, I'm scouting these girls, 402 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 1: and that was part of how they were. The modeling 403 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,159 Speaker 1: industry just seems to be an absolute cesspool. But so 404 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:08,119 Speaker 1: many of these industries where you have a massive disparity 405 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,360 Speaker 1: between the power, the people the top and the aspirants 406 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,439 Speaker 1: who want to get who are so desperate to get 407 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 1: in this industry, so desperate to make it, et cetera, 408 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,920 Speaker 1: it just makes it rife, rife for abuse. And that's 409 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 1: really the portrait that emerges here. Certainly, we wanted to 410 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:29,960 Speaker 1: highlight for you, some of the latest horrors coming out 411 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: of the Middle East. So this was actually a video 412 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 1: that was highlighted by a Congressman, Thomas mass So you 413 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:36,959 Speaker 1: could put this up on the screen. This is an 414 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 1: apartment building being just completely demolished by Israel in Beirut, 415 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 1: in Lebanon, and Massey said, along with this video, who's 416 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 1: a Republican, Who's like the only Republican who said anything 417 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 1: reasonable on this conflict in my view in terms. 418 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 3: Of elected officials. 419 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 1: Quote, if Israel insists on destroying civilian targets in Lebanon, 420 00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 1: let them buy and build their own weapons. American taxpayer 421 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:03,160 Speaker 1: shouldn't be funding this. So this is not in Gaza. 422 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 1: This is in Lebanon, in a major city where they 423 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 1: are just utterly destroying a massive apartment building there. At 424 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,120 Speaker 1: the same time, you know, the IDEAF had put out 425 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:20,320 Speaker 1: this propaganda video we talked about before, which alleged that 426 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 1: Hasbela had a bunch of their financial assets that were 427 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 1: hidden under a hospital. It's very, eaerily reminiscent of some 428 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,919 Speaker 1: of the propaganda videos that they had put out in 429 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: advance of attacking hospitals in Gaza. 430 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 3: So we were all, well, here we go again. 431 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,360 Speaker 1: You know, this is just their attempt to justify yet 432 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 1: another assault on another country's medical system. But one thing 433 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 1: that's different in Lebanon, unlike Gaza, is that you have access. 434 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 1: Journalists have access to be able to actually go to 435 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: the hospital and look around and say, Okay, well is 436 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 1: it true what they're saying and TLDR No, it was. 437 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 3: A total lie. 438 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 1: Here is the BBC underneath said hospital where supposedly the 439 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:09,359 Speaker 1: evil layer existed. Finding absolutely nothing. 440 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 3: Let's take a look at that. 441 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 5: Well, we're on level minus two in the Al Sahell Hospital. 442 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 5: The area just behind me is where medical waste is stored. 443 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 5: Even that was opened up for us to have a look. 444 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 5: The morgue was opened up, all of the drawers were 445 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 5: opened to show us there was nothing inside. Doctors have 446 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:39,440 Speaker 5: been opening piles of surgical scrubs, boxes of equipment, very 447 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 5: very keen to show us everything there is to see 448 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 5: and to prove that there is nothing here. Well, I'm 449 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 5: just coming now from the basement on minus two up 450 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:58,639 Speaker 5: to minus one. We've been brought around the hospital by doctors. 451 00:22:59,240 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 2: We've also been. 452 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 5: Allowed to move around on our own. Doors have been 453 00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 5: opened for us in every area. Copboards we've been allowed 454 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 5: to see what there is to see now. The hospital 455 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 5: staff are adamant that there is no hidden bonker here 456 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 5: containing millions of dollars of cash or gold, as the 457 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,080 Speaker 5: Israelis have claimed. They say, this is just a hospital 458 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 5: where patients were being treated last night and where they 459 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:32,639 Speaker 5: had to be evacuated from the emergency area at great 460 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 5: speed because doctors were worried for the lives of the 461 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 5: patients and also worried for the staff. 462 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 1: So, in addition to obviously the significance of just exposing 463 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:46,360 Speaker 1: this was not shockingly a total incomplete fabrication and lie, 464 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:49,360 Speaker 1: I think Sara also shows something that Israel has known 465 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,480 Speaker 1: because they have launched all that assault on journalists and 466 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:56,720 Speaker 1: journalism since the post October seventh. Then many would say 467 00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 1: even before it really matters to have journalists have access 468 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 1: to the war zone to be able to adjudicate, like, Okay, 469 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,639 Speaker 1: they're saying this, let's go check it out. And in 470 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:12,640 Speaker 1: Gaza access has been almost completely closed off. Any sort 471 00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,199 Speaker 1: of Western outlet that wants to go in has to 472 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,320 Speaker 1: abide by all of the IDF's rules. They have to 473 00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,399 Speaker 1: be invited in. Yeah, they have to be subject to 474 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,080 Speaker 1: that censorship. They get taken on basically like a guided 475 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,479 Speaker 1: tour of the things the IDF wants them to see. 476 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,399 Speaker 1: And the only outfit that you know, outsider outfit that 477 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 1: has been able to have any access is Al Jazeera, 478 00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:37,400 Speaker 1: which Israel has accused of being hamas has stripped their 479 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 1: broadcast licenses, you know, seized their equipment and raided their 480 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:44,879 Speaker 1: office and shut them down. And I think, you know, 481 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 1: this little piece of journalism from the BBC exposes why 482 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 1: they have seen that independent that journalism as such a 483 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 1: threat to the project of annihilation that they're engaged in. 484 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 2: The journalism piece is really important and that's actually it's 485 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,719 Speaker 2: funny because in the idea they like, go look at 486 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 2: it for yourself, and then they did and they're like, well, 487 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 2: that's kind of an issue for you. But I mean 488 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 2: part of the issue is also that even though they 489 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 2: have the access, that our outlets are still not going there. 490 00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,400 Speaker 2: It's coming from the BBC, right, But I haven't seen 491 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 2: any of this in art. I mean, I get it, 492 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,560 Speaker 2: we're twelve days from election. You know, there's a lot, 493 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,320 Speaker 2: but it is important if you're gonna check these ts. 494 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, And to the point about the all one 495 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 1: assault on journalism. Their latest effort, that Israeli's latest effort. 496 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 1: We can put E four up on the screen. They've 497 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 1: accused these six Al Jazeera journalists of being hamas terrorists. 498 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:33,919 Speaker 1: Put E five up on the screen. Of course, Al 499 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,840 Speaker 1: Jazeera strenuously denies this, and this comes in the context 500 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 1: of you know, I don't even know how many journalists 501 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: they've killed in Gaza at this point. As I said, 502 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 1: Al Jazeera says this was fabricated evidence. 503 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 3: As I said before, you. 504 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 1: Know, Al Jazeera's they're really the only outlet that has 505 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,199 Speaker 1: been able to operate, So they're the only ones who 506 00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,199 Speaker 1: have been able to you know, go into hospitals, to 507 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 1: go to the site of these massacres, to really report 508 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,919 Speaker 1: on the ground what is happening. And a number of 509 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:09,119 Speaker 1: their reporters have already been killed by Israel in the 510 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 1: context of trying to report on this war. So New 511 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,159 Speaker 1: York Times Rights the channel's correspondence are some of the 512 00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,719 Speaker 1: few remaining reporters on the ground in Gaza to document 513 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: the devastating impact of Israel's operations there. Israel has largely 514 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 1: barred the international press. Again, this is from the New 515 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,760 Speaker 1: York Times from entering the enclave except on closely monitored 516 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:30,879 Speaker 1: tours accompanied by the Israeli military. Al Jazeera called the 517 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:34,160 Speaker 1: accusations a blatant attempt to silence the few remaining journalists 518 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,560 Speaker 1: in the region, there by obscuring the harsh realities of 519 00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 1: the war from audiences worldwide. And I would just say, listen, obviously, 520 00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 1: I think these charges are total, incomplete. 521 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 3: Bullshit, completely made up. 522 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,920 Speaker 1: You know, they've offered they made up the whole unra 523 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,080 Speaker 1: these are terrorist thing. They never provided the evidence that 524 00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,000 Speaker 1: they said that we're going to back up those claims, 525 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 1: that there's no reason whatsoever to take the Israeli government 526 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,960 Speaker 1: at face value with this. But I would also say, hey, 527 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,679 Speaker 1: if you don't like these journalists, open it up so 528 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,240 Speaker 1: that any outlet can go in and report. If it's 529 00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 1: going to be so validating to you of how what 530 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 1: a moral army you are and how great the situation 531 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,200 Speaker 1: is on the ground, why don't you let in more 532 00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:13,880 Speaker 1: journalists to be able to actually report on the war 533 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 1: and your efforts as it exists. 534 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point. Can we go to the 535 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,080 Speaker 2: next part you found this? I found it so interesting 536 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,879 Speaker 2: about the realignment that's currently happening. Iran is saying that 537 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 2: it's planning to hold its first joint military drills with 538 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,879 Speaker 2: Saudi's in the Red Sea. And this really goes counter 539 00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:30,920 Speaker 2: to the entire theory of the Middle East that the 540 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 2: Trump administration had going into the Abraham Accords, which was 541 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:38,880 Speaker 2: to consolidate the Emirates and the Gulf powers against Iran, 542 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,480 Speaker 2: but through normalization of relations with Israel. But what's happened 543 00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,119 Speaker 2: instead is that now the Palestinian question has been forced 544 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 2: so much to the front, especially with the Arab populations, 545 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 2: that they're finding themselves aligned against Israel and obviously also 546 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 2: against the United States, which is this predominant backer. So 547 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,399 Speaker 2: the first time here, I mean to see two armies 548 00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:03,640 Speaker 2: first military drills. Somebody showed me this. The Ayatola when 549 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,159 Speaker 2: he died, in his last rule and testament, included this 550 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,080 Speaker 2: whole thing about how the House of Saud was evil 551 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 2: and how it needs to be regime changed. I mean, 552 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 2: these were you know, blood, This is a true blood feud, 553 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,639 Speaker 2: not to mention the entire religious dynamic of Sunni and Shia. 554 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,880 Speaker 2: So to see this happening is absolutely extraordinary, and it's 555 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 2: one of those where you know, look the entire region 556 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,280 Speaker 2: is really aligning against us, and you should ask yourself 557 00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,080 Speaker 2: for what you know. This isn't even for Iraq war. 558 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:29,919 Speaker 2: This is for our conflict that we're not even in. But 559 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,440 Speaker 2: we're funding the entire thing and it's causing a huge 560 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,159 Speaker 2: amount of blowbacks, so I think we are going to 561 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:35,119 Speaker 2: pay for it sometimes. 562 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:35,440 Speaker 3: Yeah. 563 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 1: No, this is literally the first time this has ever happened, 564 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 1: and it should also go not go unnoted that this 565 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 1: was a deal brokered by China. So you know, as 566 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:51,480 Speaker 1: the region is aligning around the Palestinian question against US 567 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,880 Speaker 1: and Israel, it's you know, China that is serving the 568 00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:59,840 Speaker 1: rule as diplomats and peacemakers amongst these longtime enemies. So 569 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 1: definitely extraordinary development worth keeping an eye on. At the 570 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,160 Speaker 1: same time, we can put this up on the screen. 571 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 1: You had, I mean, this is just too perfect. So 572 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 1: you had Tony Blincoln questioning bb net Naho about this 573 00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 1: quote unquote general's plan, which is basically, we're going to 574 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 1: seal off northern Gaza, We're to starve everybody that's inside, 575 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 1: and we're just going to assume that they're all Hamas militants. 576 00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 3: Blincoln question that Nawho about this, US. 577 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,479 Speaker 1: Officials told Bibe, there is a perception that Israel's pursuing 578 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,600 Speaker 1: a strategy of isolating the North, telling people that if 579 00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 1: they don't leave their effectively targets and denying food to 580 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:37,840 Speaker 1: go in Bib in his Top eight ron. Drmer responded 581 00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,680 Speaker 1: that this was absolutely not our policy, and the fact 582 00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 1: that this perception exists has been deeply damaging to US. 583 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,840 Speaker 1: US officials then said, okay, so why don't you go 584 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:50,960 Speaker 1: out and say that publicly, But the Israelis refused to 585 00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:52,720 Speaker 1: make such a commitment. 586 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,440 Speaker 3: Which you know, it just shows you behind closed doors. Oh, 587 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 3: of course not. 588 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,000 Speaker 1: We would never do that. We can all see the 589 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 1: reports that are coming out. They are literally executing exactly 590 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 1: what is described in the General's plan, and so privately 591 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,640 Speaker 1: they'll reassure you us, no, no, we're not doing that whatsoever. 592 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:10,720 Speaker 1: Of course not, we would never do that. Okay, fine, 593 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,239 Speaker 1: we'll go out and say that publicly. Yeah, not going 594 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 1: to do that, because number one, we actually that is 595 00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 1: actually our plan, and number two, this is popular with 596 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,120 Speaker 1: our political base in particular, and so no, we're not 597 00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:26,840 Speaker 1: going to go out and tell our political base that 598 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,080 Speaker 1: we're not doing the thing that they want us to do, 599 00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:34,800 Speaker 1: you know, just to as an indication of the reality 600 00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:38,719 Speaker 1: of this plan being implemented in Northern Gaza. We can 601 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:40,680 Speaker 1: put this scene up on the screen. 602 00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 5: This is a. 603 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 1: Breadline people desperately, desperately scrapping to try to get a 604 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 1: loaf of bread. Such as the level of desperation that 605 00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,520 Speaker 1: has taken hold around Kaza, but in Northern Gaza in particular, 606 00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,840 Speaker 1: where now I just saw this morning. Even the Israelis 607 00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,240 Speaker 1: are acknowledging that no food aid, no aid entered Northern 608 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 1: Gaza for weeks in early October. They are acknowledging basically 609 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,719 Speaker 1: that they, you know, have blocked aid, something that our 610 00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 1: administration has pretended to not be able to figure out 611 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,800 Speaker 1: whether or not they're doing. We also know that there's 612 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,760 Speaker 1: been we played for you in the last show, the 613 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,800 Speaker 1: forced you might call it a death march, evacuation of 614 00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 1: Northern Gaza. 615 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 3: Once again. 616 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 1: We also know that some of the people who have 617 00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 1: tried to evacuate Northern Gaza have been shot at and 618 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:31,160 Speaker 1: times killed. So you know, this is the reality of 619 00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 1: the policy that our government is funding and supporting and 620 00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:35,640 Speaker 1: pretending to have no idea. 621 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:40,560 Speaker 3: What's going on? Yeah, all right, Sager? What are you 622 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:40,960 Speaker 3: looking at. 623 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:42,880 Speaker 2: One of the weird parts about doing this job is 624 00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:44,520 Speaker 2: every once in a while someone will come up to 625 00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,240 Speaker 2: me and ask how should I vote. I usually answer 626 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,160 Speaker 2: it in the same way, well what do you care 627 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,880 Speaker 2: the most about? Sometimes the answer is staying out of war. 628 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:53,760 Speaker 2: Sometimes it's a rich person they say, I don't want 629 00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 2: to pay any taxes. Sometimes as a service worker wants healthcare. 630 00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,320 Speaker 2: Based on that, I interrogated a bit more, and I go, well, 631 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,040 Speaker 2: can you with what can't you what are the best 632 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,520 Speaker 2: chances of actually happening that you do care about. It's 633 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 2: a very useful exercise. I noticed a lot of people 634 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 2: don't actually do it. For example, we recently played a 635 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:10,920 Speaker 2: clip of someone asking Trump how he was going to 636 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 2: improve the quality of his kids' school in New York City. Now, 637 00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 2: I understand it was probably bigger than that, but many 638 00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,520 Speaker 2: people just appear not to know about ninety five percent 639 00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:21,960 Speaker 2: of that control is state and local. Or you're going 640 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 2: to see other voters quote on the cost of groceries 641 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 2: with a very vague understanding how can the president even 642 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 2: affect that? So I thought I would do a monologue 643 00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,479 Speaker 2: here about my theories of the American presidency. The varying 644 00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 2: degrees of things that actually they control. Let's start with 645 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,400 Speaker 2: arguably the most important issue, least often considered, war and peace. 646 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 2: The president's commander in chief has near absolute power to 647 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:44,959 Speaker 2: decide the fate of our nation through his or her 648 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,040 Speaker 2: conduct of foreign policy. While they cannot declare war, the 649 00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 2: imperial presidency has evolved since the time of LBJ and 650 00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 2: George W. Bush gives them the authority to launch literal 651 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:57,600 Speaker 2: missile strikes on foreign nations even without a declared war 652 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:00,840 Speaker 2: by Congress. When Trump says it is okay, for example, 653 00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,400 Speaker 2: for Israel to launch missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, 654 00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:08,480 Speaker 2: or Kamala says Ukrainian victory is a necessity for US security, 655 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:12,360 Speaker 2: you should very clearly understand they are one hundred percent 656 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:16,400 Speaker 2: ability to follow through and directly impact your life. Now, 657 00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 2: outside of foreign policy, it's very different, especially on the economy. 658 00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,560 Speaker 2: We can divide economic impact of the presidency into two areas, 659 00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:27,600 Speaker 2: those that require agencies and those that require legislation. Most 660 00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,400 Speaker 2: of the high profile things that you hear from Trump 661 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,640 Speaker 2: and from Kamala, like no tax on tips or housing subsidies, 662 00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:34,800 Speaker 2: would not be something they can do on their own. 663 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 2: It would require Congress, which we will return to. In reality, 664 00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,400 Speaker 2: especially if there is a divided government, you should look 665 00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 2: to agency power. This is where both can have tremendous impact. 666 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,720 Speaker 2: For example, through the EPA, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the FTC, 667 00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:52,400 Speaker 2: as we've seen under Lena Khan, the Anti Trust Division 668 00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,280 Speaker 2: of the Department of Justice, they make rulings that massively 669 00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,440 Speaker 2: impact the US economy, but only within the scope of 670 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,120 Speaker 2: defined responsibility. Ironically, their power has actually been lessened for 671 00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,320 Speaker 2: both presidents, especially Trump after the repeal of the Chevron 672 00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 2: doctrine by the Supreme Court. But nonetheless, through agency power 673 00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:11,080 Speaker 2: they can affect the price of oil, whether new things 674 00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:14,319 Speaker 2: get approved for building, perhaps most importantly, tariffs within a 675 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:17,239 Speaker 2: very defined scope. It would take Congress for Trump or 676 00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,040 Speaker 2: Kamala to have an across the board tariff as he's proposed, 677 00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:24,120 Speaker 2: but Commerce Department, under National Security designations can implement some 678 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,000 Speaker 2: tariff to the tune of hundreds of billions on select 679 00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:29,719 Speaker 2: items without Congressional input. But I want to point out 680 00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:31,800 Speaker 2: there are still some major limits to this. Back in 681 00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:33,759 Speaker 2: the Trump years when I covered the White House, he 682 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,319 Speaker 2: tried very different things to try and divert from from 683 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,919 Speaker 2: the Pentagon to build the border wall. It had huge 684 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,319 Speaker 2: legal hurdles it had to jump through. In the end, 685 00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:43,759 Speaker 2: it mostly just didn't work. At one point, it set 686 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,279 Speaker 2: up a showdown between Trump and Congress. They ended up 687 00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,960 Speaker 2: losing to Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. Now on the 688 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:52,040 Speaker 2: congressional front, it's actually pretty simple. The likelihood of some 689 00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:55,839 Speaker 2: major flagship items touted by Trump and Kamala have very 690 00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:59,040 Speaker 2: little chance of passage. If Kamala actually did win, she 691 00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:01,960 Speaker 2: would almost certainly have at least one Chamber of Congress 692 00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,480 Speaker 2: that was Republican, meaning that when the tax cuts and 693 00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,560 Speaker 2: jobzax expires in twenty twenty five, what they would have 694 00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:10,600 Speaker 2: a say over what replaces it. From Democrats that I've 695 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,520 Speaker 2: spoken to, the bargain that will most likely happen is 696 00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:16,760 Speaker 2: this Republicans would get an extension of corporate and income 697 00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:20,160 Speaker 2: tax bracket reductions, while Democrats would get some version of 698 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,680 Speaker 2: a child tax credit that in and of itself, of course, 699 00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,680 Speaker 2: would be a big bardain, But most of the rest 700 00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:26,880 Speaker 2: of her so called plan is probably just dead on 701 00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:30,200 Speaker 2: arrival for Trump, even if he had United government, I 702 00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:31,960 Speaker 2: do not see a world where a majority of the 703 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:35,520 Speaker 2: Republicans would back no tax on tips, and certainly not 704 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,160 Speaker 2: no tax on social security benefits. In all likelihood, what 705 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,440 Speaker 2: would pass is an extension of the tax cuts from 706 00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,840 Speaker 2: twenty seventeen, in addition to probably some big business friendly 707 00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:49,080 Speaker 2: tax cruts and perhaps some deficit offset by repealing environmental 708 00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,840 Speaker 2: tax credits passed by the Biden administration. So if you 709 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,560 Speaker 2: were majorly affected by any of those policies, and they're 710 00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,320 Speaker 2: the most important for you, you need to very heavily 711 00:35:57,320 --> 00:36:00,640 Speaker 2: consider that when you're voting. Turning to immigration, this is 712 00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:03,279 Speaker 2: another area where the president both has major control and 713 00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,680 Speaker 2: is also very limited. Now, as we saw under Biden, 714 00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:09,680 Speaker 2: interpretation of executive authority can allow literally millions of illegals 715 00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:12,040 Speaker 2: to come into the country. At the same time, under 716 00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,759 Speaker 2: Trump we saw very similar problems with border crossings, and 717 00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 2: it was only quelled by a remain in Mexico which 718 00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:20,400 Speaker 2: did not address the underlying problem of asylum law and 719 00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,680 Speaker 2: processing issues that border patrol has. The only way I 720 00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:26,879 Speaker 2: see the immigration question majorly affected under Trump or Kamm 721 00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:31,240 Speaker 2: Law is again with congressional action of literally rewriting laws, 722 00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:34,719 Speaker 2: which can only happen with the United Government otherwise when 723 00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,879 Speaker 2: it's divided. The likelihood of a grand compromise is very 724 00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:41,319 Speaker 2: low because of a theory called thermostatic public opinion. This 725 00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,600 Speaker 2: theory basically says that when the left is in power, 726 00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:45,719 Speaker 2: the country moves right. When the right is in power, 727 00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 2: the country moves left. In other words, on immigration, you 728 00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:50,680 Speaker 2: should understand the likelihood of what you were voting for 729 00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:54,640 Speaker 2: is interpretation of today's immigration laws, not some pie in 730 00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,000 Speaker 2: the sky vision that people are selling you. And finally, 731 00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:59,720 Speaker 2: and potentially, the biggest impact outside of war the president 732 00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,439 Speaker 2: has control over is the Supreme Court. Trump of course, 733 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,200 Speaker 2: appointed three justices on the US Supreme Court while he 734 00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,479 Speaker 2: was in office. If he were to assume office again, 735 00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,200 Speaker 2: it is a safe bet Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas 736 00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,880 Speaker 2: would resign, giving the Conservatives a decades long solid majority 737 00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,759 Speaker 2: on the Court. This would have impacts of interpretations from 738 00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:20,600 Speaker 2: law in social to economic. Conversely, if Kamala won, the 739 00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,200 Speaker 2: actuarial tables tell us she'll probably have at least one 740 00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:25,440 Speaker 2: appointment right, and thus could change the makeup of the 741 00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:27,319 Speaker 2: court in the long run. It's not a sexy thing 742 00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:29,520 Speaker 2: to think about, but the impact is gigantic, and it 743 00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:31,920 Speaker 2: is worth considering both of these. If you are going 744 00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,280 Speaker 2: to vote. So I will end with this general heuristic 745 00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:37,480 Speaker 2: of whatever issue that you care about, be real with yourself. 746 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,120 Speaker 2: Ask yourself, does the president actually have the ability to 747 00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:43,000 Speaker 2: control this? And then what judgment you think that they 748 00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,600 Speaker 2: would use for it If they can't control it, Ask 749 00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,399 Speaker 2: yourself with the likelihood of what you want happening will 750 00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:51,560 Speaker 2: get through Congress. Yeah, I know it's depressing, but it's 751 00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:53,600 Speaker 2: better you should be clear eyed about what you're voting 752 00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,640 Speaker 2: for rather than to vote and then get disappointed. Finally, 753 00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:58,759 Speaker 2: I'll just say this, it doesn't have to be this way. 754 00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,280 Speaker 2: My favorite presidents are these who have transcended the dynamic 755 00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:03,520 Speaker 2: I just laid out. They actually forced Washington in the 756 00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:06,160 Speaker 2: country to really move with them. FDR is one of 757 00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:08,880 Speaker 2: the best presents, specifically because he harnessed the power of 758 00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:12,680 Speaker 2: the executive and public popularity to force Congress to radically 759 00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:15,759 Speaker 2: shift America's relationship with government. Teddy Roosevelt was the very 760 00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:17,799 Speaker 2: first to do so. He took a job that mostly 761 00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:20,359 Speaker 2: only had power over foreign affairs and war and turned 762 00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:23,320 Speaker 2: himself into a real public advocate changed the country forever. 763 00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:26,240 Speaker 2: LBJ inherited a job that, again it was stuck almost 764 00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,640 Speaker 2: entirely in the realm of just the Cold War used 765 00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:31,240 Speaker 2: the force of power at expertise to push through massive 766 00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:34,759 Speaker 2: social legislation that had not been seen in one hundred years. 767 00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,359 Speaker 2: In both cases, I'm sorry to tell you I don't 768 00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,839 Speaker 2: see much of that on the ballot today. My expectations 769 00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:42,120 Speaker 2: are set very much accordingly. I hope this helps you 770 00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,200 Speaker 2: if you're considering how to vote. I do hoop. Do 771 00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,680 Speaker 2: hope that you will still participate, because if you don't, 772 00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,160 Speaker 2: the likelihood of things getting even better they're still not 773 00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:51,960 Speaker 2: that high. So there you go, Crystal. That's my heuristic, 774 00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:52,839 Speaker 2: the guy asked, And if 775 00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:55,680 Speaker 1: You want to hear my reaction to Sagres's monologue, become 776 00:38:55,680 --> 00:39:07,160 Speaker 1: a premium subscriber today at breakingpoints dot com.