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Speaker 1: Here we go, the official show on the fish Stripes

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Speaker 1: podcast channel. I'm Eli Sussman, the managing editor of fish Stripes,

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Speaker 1: where we cover the Miami Marlins every day in our

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Speaker 1: own way. Full coverage up on fishstripes dot com. Check

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Speaker 1: out our website. Follow us on every platform imaginable, including

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Speaker 1: subscribing to the podcast. I'm sure most of you already

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Speaker 1: do so if you haven't yet, leave a rating and

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Speaker 1: review for this on Apple. Every new rating and review

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Speaker 1: that we get down the stretch of the season is

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Speaker 1: an extra dollar that fish Stripes will donate towards the

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Speaker 1: Player's Alliance. Learn everything you need to know about that

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Speaker 1: great organization at the Players Alliance dot com and make

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Speaker 1: your own donation if you have the means to do so.

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Speaker 1: It's about a week and a half since the last

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Speaker 1: time I did a full solo episode of the podcast.

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Speaker 1: During that time, the Marlins I've been playing well. This

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Speaker 1: has been quietly their best extended stretch of the entire

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one season. Unfortunately, it comes at a time

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Speaker 1: of year where it's the least consequential time of the

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Speaker 1: season to be going on this type of run, winning

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Speaker 1: five of their last seven series, most of this episode

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Speaker 1: is not going to be about, you know, the micro

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Speaker 1: sample that we're looking at right now. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: be reviewing bold predictions that were made six months ago

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Speaker 1: at the Marlins season, because we have reached a point

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Speaker 1: where just about all those bold predictions have been resolved

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Speaker 1: one way or another, and they were made between myself

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Speaker 1: and arm Leyden of Just Baseball and Lockdown Marlins. We'll

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Speaker 1: be reviewing the predictions we made, you know, the thought

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Speaker 1: processes that we went into them, what went right or

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Speaker 1: wrong to make those predictions, you know, line or off pace.

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Speaker 1: It should be a lot of fun. Well, you know,

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Speaker 1: real quickly, before getting into that, I do have the

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Speaker 1: comment about, you know, the two men of the hour

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Speaker 1: for this Marlins team, the rookie outfielders Heyesus Sanchez and

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Speaker 1: Brian Dela Cruz. I already did a full pot on

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Speaker 1: Dela Cruz like a month ago, where I was extremely

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Speaker 1: excited about what he had done. You know, even in

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Speaker 1: that really tiny sample early on through the better part

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Speaker 1: of August, I think there were signs that this was

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Speaker 1: like legit, like the Marlins had found in probably a

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Speaker 1: lasting piece of their organization in exchange for a pending

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Speaker 1: free agent reliever in Yimi Garcia, something that very rarely happens.

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Speaker 1: The jury is still very much out on him. I'll

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Speaker 1: continue to say that the rest of the season, throughout

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Speaker 1: the off season, the sample is just not big enough.

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Speaker 1: I've gotten a lot of content out of him. I'll

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Speaker 1: have a new article up on him on fishtripes dot

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Speaker 1: com shortly as well that I hope you guys check out.

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Speaker 1: He's been terrific in all aspects of the game, and

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Speaker 1: there's really no downside to it, you know, other than

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Speaker 1: realizing that his raw stats at the moment, you know,

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Speaker 1: being one of the National Leagu's league leading hitters, being

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Speaker 1: forty percent better than a league average in terms of

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Speaker 1: weighted runs created. Plus you know that stuff will come

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Speaker 1: back down to earth and there's still more to learn

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Speaker 1: about really all aspects of his game. But I'm thrilled.

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Speaker 1: I'm thrilled for everybody involved, and on top of everything else,

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Speaker 1: he just seems like a really impressive human being that

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Speaker 1: is already being well liked by his teammates. On Sanchez,

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Speaker 1: he's the guy that I've also held in high regard

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Speaker 1: pretty much, you know, throughout the year. He was right

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Speaker 1: before graduating from my prospects list a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: He was my number six overall prospect. I had him

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Speaker 1: in the third tier of prospects, and I had him

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Speaker 1: as the best outfield prospect remaining in the Marlins organization,

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Speaker 1: mainly because of his bat. You can see it him

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Speaker 1: from watching him and in the measurables as well. Both

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Speaker 1: you know the exit velocity that he registers, his understanding

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Speaker 1: of the strike zone, his presence in the batter's box,

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Speaker 1: Do not overlook how important that is as well, and

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Speaker 1: his just comfort being at the major league level after

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Speaker 1: falling on his face frankly in that first sample that

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Speaker 1: he got in twenty twenty, at this moment, hitting sixteen

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Speaker 1: percent better than the league average in terms of WRC plus.

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Speaker 1: He has put up the stat on Twitter he has

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Speaker 1: eight home runs over the past three weeks or so,

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Speaker 1: and the only player in Major League Baseball with more

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Speaker 1: during that span is Triple Crown hopeful AL MVP candidate

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Guerrero Junior. That's the kind of company that he's

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Speaker 1: keeping lately, and he's doing it against all sorts of competition.

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Speaker 1: The power is legit. I'd say there are some similarities

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Speaker 1: with that tool to somebody like Garrett Cooper, and Cooper

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Speaker 1: is somebody that is kind of top of the scale

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Speaker 1: that on the Marlins roster when healthy in terms of

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Speaker 1: his game power, and Sanchez has that attribute to him

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Speaker 1: similar to Cooper, though we'll have to figure out exactly

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Speaker 1: where he fits in defensively because right now, the left

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Speaker 1: field experiment that the Marlins tried earlier this year it

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Speaker 1: did not go great. And even in right field, there

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Speaker 1: are just some situations where he makes poor decisions despite

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Speaker 1: having the tools to be at least an average defender,

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Speaker 1: if not better than that. And the same thing goes

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Speaker 1: with base running as well. The same thing goes with

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Speaker 1: in the batter's box, that there's a certain level of

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Speaker 1: decision making that hopefully he can learn over time with

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Speaker 1: enough reps and with the right mindset when he's on

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Speaker 1: the field, at the very least, the bat gives him

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Speaker 1: a very high floor with this organization. So having these

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Speaker 1: two together and the fact that they seem to be

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Speaker 1: great friends with each other, that makes it even better

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Speaker 1: that both of them are performing so well so early

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Speaker 1: in their career, because we have been deprived of that

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Speaker 1: throughout this entire course of the rebuilds, it is a

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Speaker 1: sigh of relief to know that there's nothing really fundamentally

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Speaker 1: broken with the way that the Marlins coach and develop

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Speaker 1: hitting that you know, maybe they're doing something right and

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Speaker 1: that others can follow in their footsteps. That's the most

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Speaker 1: important part. Because even these two guys continue being kind

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Speaker 1: of who they have been this season as rookies, they'll

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Speaker 1: need reinforcements. This lineup does need more. Kim Ang even

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Speaker 1: said as much in a recent interview with in Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: last week that they need more impact bats. They need

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Speaker 1: ones that have been there and done that before these guys,

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Speaker 1: for they seem to be a great piece of that combination.

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Speaker 1: Maybe there's a scenario where they can out to be

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Speaker 1: the centerpiece of a trade in order to get somebody

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Speaker 1: that really does have that long track record. Both of

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Speaker 1: them have really boosted their stocks this year, and that's

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Speaker 1: that's really all you're looking for at this time of year,

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Speaker 1: when you know what happens on the field doesn't really matter.

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Speaker 1: That you look for those individual like silver linings and

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Speaker 1: developmental success stories. Both those guys definitely trending in that direction.

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Speaker 1: So now we get to the focus of this episode,

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Speaker 1: which is revisiting bold predictions that were made exactly three

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Speaker 1: three months, six months ago. Exactly six months ago, myself

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Speaker 1: and arm Leaden, we independently came up with five bold

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Speaker 1: predictions each about the twenty twenty one Marlin season. This

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Speaker 1: was recorded right in the middle of spring training games,

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Speaker 1: I guess, just past the midpoint of the Grapefruit League schedule.

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Speaker 1: We're going to retrace each of these ten combined predictions,

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Speaker 1: and I think that will also do a good job

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Speaker 1: of kind of, like, you know, summarizing maybe some things

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Speaker 1: that you had been overlooking at this stage of the

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Speaker 1: season in terms of where we thought we were back

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Speaker 1: in March and where we are now, which is a

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Speaker 1: couple weeks remaining in the season. As a side note,

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Speaker 1: this comes perfectly timed with Arham's publication of his top

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Speaker 1: one hundred prospects in Baseball that's up on just Baseball

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Speaker 1: dot com. We were just talking about a couple of rookies,

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Speaker 1: you know, in that first segment with de la Cruz

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Speaker 1: and Sanchez, so we'll keep on that subject when going

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Speaker 1: through this first bold prediction from Arham, which was Trevor

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Speaker 1: Rodgers finishing top three in National League Rookie of the

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Speaker 1: Year voting. We'll have to wait at least another month

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Speaker 1: to get, you know, confirmation on that when he's announced

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Speaker 1: as a finalist for the award, but you can lock

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Speaker 1: it up. Lead to arm on the podcast in July,

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Speaker 1: I think, and even back then I told him to

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Speaker 1: take a bow for making this prediction. Absolutely nailed it

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Speaker 1: with Trevor Rodgers, who of course had a kind of

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Speaker 1: a bumpy introduction to the majors in twenty twenty, at

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Speaker 1: least in terms of run prevention. The peripherals were really encouraging. Though.

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Speaker 1: He made improvements over the offseason, both physically and in

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Speaker 1: terms of pitch execution and sequencing. Those showed up in

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Speaker 1: spring training games, and like, even in that setting, knowing

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Speaker 1: how easy it is to be fooled by that, there

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Speaker 1: did seem to be a legitimate uptick in everything about him.

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Speaker 1: He carried that into the regular season. He won nationallygu

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Speaker 1: Rookie the Month in April and in May. It's really

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Speaker 1: cool and really special. Of course, we know how his

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Speaker 1: season one sideways through no fault of his own, you know,

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Speaker 1: through just a personal emergency situation that the Marlins and him,

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Speaker 1: they decided that he needed time away from the team,

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Speaker 1: and that obviously cut into some of his counting stats.

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Speaker 1: Since he came back from that, he has not been

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Speaker 1: quite the same. The overall body of work, though, is incredible.

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Speaker 1: He is going to finish the season with a sub

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Speaker 1: three er and a sub three fielder independent pitching while

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Speaker 1: being a starting pitcher as a rookie. That is so rare,

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Speaker 1: and he is kind of far and away the best

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Speaker 1: National League rookie pitcher in the league. But it is

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Speaker 1: looking almost a fate a complete that Jonathan India of

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Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Reds their leadoff hitter every day second baseman.

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Speaker 1: He's going to win the award. If it's not unanimous,

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Speaker 1: it could be fairly close to that. When Arum was

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Speaker 1: making this prediction, he came close to predicting Rogers to

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Speaker 1: win the award outright. He kind of rained that back

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Speaker 1: in and said top three. And that was a wise

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Speaker 1: choice because it was still pretty bold. It was bold

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Speaker 1: because he was not the top Rookie of the Year

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Speaker 1: candidate on the Marlins roster. In the Marlins projected rotation,

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Speaker 1: I think anybody else would have had six do Sanchez

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Speaker 1: in a vacuum. You know as the one that had

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Speaker 1: a better chance of being successful this year. We know

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Speaker 1: that six to zero unfortunately was sidelined the entire year

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Speaker 1: by a shoulder injury, and that Rogers, aside from that

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Speaker 1: episode of back spasms, that he thankfully has been able

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Speaker 1: to make more than two thirds of the starts that

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Speaker 1: he was scheduled to make, entering this year a huge

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Speaker 1: step in his career. I am pretty comfortable saying that

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Speaker 1: arm got this one that no matter what happens in

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Speaker 1: these final closing weeks, it looks like Rogers could have

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Speaker 1: about three starts remaining at most maybe two or three,

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Speaker 1: that he is going to finish very high up in

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Speaker 1: those voting. So we'll go now to one of mine.

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Speaker 1: How about it will go from that to another one

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Speaker 1: with a rookie pitcher, one that I made and will

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Speaker 1: clearly miss on. Although it was to be fair, I

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Speaker 1: went really bold with this one. Anthony Bender leading the

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Speaker 1: Marlins in saves. He has three saves for the team

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Speaker 1: right now as I record this. He's probably going to

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Speaker 1: finish the year with three resaves as well. I made

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Speaker 1: the prediction again going back to spring training, before we

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Speaker 1: knew when and if he'd be on the Marlins roster

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Speaker 1: for sure. I fell in love with him almost as

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Speaker 1: soon as I saw him in his first grape Fruit

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Speaker 1: League games. Came out of nowhere. He was not on

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Speaker 1: my radar when they signed him over the offseason to

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Speaker 1: a minor league deal. As soon as he got in

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Speaker 1: a competitive setting, this stuff was there, both the fastball

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Speaker 1: and the slider, the way they played off each other,

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Speaker 1: the commands that he had. That was something that historically

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Speaker 1: he had lacked, and as this season has gone on

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Speaker 1: it has occasionally been an issue for him as well.

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Speaker 1: But the fact that it was good enough for him

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Speaker 1: to be a big leaguer to start his career with

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Speaker 1: one of the longest scoreless streaks for any major reliever

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Speaker 1: ever to begin somebody's career, I was onto something. It's

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Speaker 1: just an inexact science when it comes to saves, because

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Speaker 1: one you need to get that opportunity in the first place.

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Speaker 1: And my thought process was that the Marlins would end

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Speaker 1: up trading rearranging their back into their bullpen during the year.

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Speaker 1: I wasn't in love with either Anthony Bass or Jimmy

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Speaker 1: Garcia or even Dylan Floro. I thought there would be,

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Speaker 1: you know, some unrest there and there was you know,

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Speaker 1: almost immediately Anthony Bass was kicked out of the closers role,

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Speaker 1: Jimmy Garcia filled his shoes, and Jimmy Garcia was traded

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Speaker 1: at the deadline. And in between, Bender did get a

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Speaker 1: couple windows of time to kind of not even be

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Speaker 1: the full time closer, but at least being a closer

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Speaker 1: by committee, and unfortunately he didn't take advantage of it.

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Speaker 1: He had his best work in May and June, and

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Speaker 1: then he hit a pretty big rough patch and he's

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Speaker 1: been up and down kind of since then. The overall

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Speaker 1: rookie season for him has been terrific. He is let's see,

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Speaker 1: does he lead all Marlins relievers in strikeouts this year?

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Speaker 1: Sixty seven of them and yeah, pretty far and away

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Speaker 1: the most strikeouts among Marlins relievers. He's only a had

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Speaker 1: five home runs all year, and yeah, the peripherals and

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Speaker 1: the run prevention kind of line up for him. It

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Speaker 1: was just about the lack of opportunity and credit to

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Speaker 1: Dylan Floro. So after Jimmy got traded, Floro was part

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Speaker 1: of that committee and he just gradually separated himself from

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Speaker 1: everybody else. He hasn't been perfect in that role, but

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Speaker 1: He's been pretty great doing a lot of the things

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Speaker 1: that Bender does, but have this a larger track record

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Speaker 1: of being a major league reliever. He has even better

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Speaker 1: control of his stuff as well, and so Floro has

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Speaker 1: locked that down. Yimmy. Right now, he leads the former

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Speaker 1: Marlin at this point, leads the team with fifteen saves.

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Speaker 1: Floro has a chance to catch him. By the end

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Speaker 1: of the year, Floro has twelve, but Bender with three.

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Speaker 1: Unless the Marlins win every one of their games down

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Speaker 1: the stretch, and they win almost all them close and

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Speaker 1: safe situations and they Bender in all those same situations,

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Speaker 1: it's just not going to happen, unfortunately. Again, the larger

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Speaker 1: point when we make these predictions is about players, you know,

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Speaker 1: we feel high about, and I do pat myself on

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Speaker 1: the back for believing in Bender that early on the season.

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Speaker 1: He is going to be a fascinating piece of this

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Speaker 1: Marlins pitching staff moving forward. Going back to Arum, his

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Speaker 1: second bold prediction was his worst. Well, I'll just be

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Speaker 1: frank about that. The one that I was you know,

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Speaker 1: I wasn't shocked at at the time, you know, I

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Speaker 1: could see where he was going with this. Corey Dickerson

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Speaker 1: earning National League All Star honors. You know, the first

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Speaker 1: couple weeks of the regular season, he was piling up

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Speaker 1: the hits. I don't know if people remember that he

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Speaker 1: was hitting in the mid three hundreds for the early

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Speaker 1: portion of April. He just never really got the other

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Speaker 1: aspects of his game going. The power that we thought

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Speaker 1: might return after a down twenty twenty he never did. Defensively,

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Speaker 1: he was limited to left field and nothing spectacular out there,

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Speaker 1: So there was really no point where he was a

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Speaker 1: true every day starting player for the Marlins, even once

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Speaker 1: Starling Marte went out for an injury. Garrett Cooper had

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Speaker 1: his inconsistencies, like Dickerson was still they he never really

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Speaker 1: had the full confidence of Don Mattingly. The key missing

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Speaker 1: detail was that power and that played discipline that had

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Speaker 1: made him a really desirable player a couple of years

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Speaker 1: ago when the Marlins signed him out of free agency.

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Speaker 1: The stats ended up being extremely in line with where

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Speaker 1: they had been during the previous previous campaign for him

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Speaker 1: as a Marlin. He had two sixty three three twenty

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Speaker 1: four three eighty slash line. That's below the league average.

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Speaker 1: That's an ops in the low seven hundreds. He only

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Speaker 1: had two home runs in sixty three games. You know

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Speaker 1: what happened from there. The Marlins were kind of eager

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Speaker 1: to unload him once he suffered an injury, so eager

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Speaker 1: that they ate some of his money, and they essentially

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Speaker 1: gave away Adam Simber in that trade, someone who has

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Speaker 1: thrived since going to Toronto, whereas Dickerson really hasn't. You know,

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Speaker 1: he had a little hot streak with them shortly after

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Speaker 1: coming back from the injured list, But the overall numbers

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Speaker 1: are extremely similar. A seven h five ops with the Marlins,

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Speaker 1: a seven to eleven ops with a Blue Jays where

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Speaker 1: he's playing even less often than he was with the Marlins.

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Speaker 1: So we Corey is he's had a really interesting career.

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Speaker 1: We certainly hope for the best for him as he's

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Speaker 1: going to enter free agency after this offseason. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: Arm kind of misfired on that. As we know, Marlins

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Speaker 1: only had one All Star this year, and it was,

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Speaker 1: you know, from his previous prediction, Trevor Rodgers. So he

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Speaker 1: more than makes up for this miss with his second

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Speaker 1: prediction of three downs seven to go. We'll go to

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Speaker 1: one where this is sort of bundling two together because

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Speaker 1: both Arm and I independently came up with predictions for

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Speaker 1: Pablo Lope that were eerily similar. So the one that

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Speaker 1: I had for Pablo was that he would receive nl

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Speaker 1: Cy Young Award votes. With that award each year kind

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Speaker 1: of depends on the particulars of the season, but usually

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Speaker 1: between about six and ten or eleven pitchers in each

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Speaker 1: league that gets Siung Award votes. Most of it is

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Speaker 1: tied to performance, tied to your stats, with a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a narrative splashed in. Pablo last year did

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Speaker 1: have that narrative kind of going for him. He was

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Speaker 1: the one steady piece in the Marlins rotation that was

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Speaker 1: able to make every turn in the rotation and had

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Speaker 1: a career year. I believed that everything he had done

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty was sustainable and that there was even

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Speaker 1: room for him to improve a little bit more, throwing

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Speaker 1: his change up a little bit more, working a little

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Speaker 1: bit deeper into games, that there was ways for him

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Speaker 1: to improve his strikeout numbers and obviously improve his overall

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Speaker 1: workload after being limited earlier in his career by shoulder issues.

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Speaker 1: And the long story short is that any chance he

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Speaker 1: had at making this prediction come true was taken away

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Speaker 1: by yet another shoulder issues, a rotator cuff strain that

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Speaker 1: was discovered right after the All Star break. He hasn't

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Speaker 1: pitched since then. There's still the door opened slightly for

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Speaker 1: him to return to the Marlins roster the final week

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Speaker 1: of the season, but unless he pitches a fifty inning

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Speaker 1: perfect game something insane like that, he's just not going

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Speaker 1: to have the amazing enough overall numbers to quite crack

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Speaker 1: that club. His numbers look pretty similar to twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: with some mild improvements. I mean, you know that he

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Speaker 1: set a major league record this year at one point

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Speaker 1: one of his final starts by striking out nine consecutive

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Speaker 1: braves batters to start his game. That had never been

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Speaker 1: done before in the majors. Overall, a three point zero

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Speaker 1: three era, a three point twenty fielder independent pitching, only

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Speaker 1: ten home runs allowed in one hundred and one innings,

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Speaker 1: well more more than a strikeout per inning, doing well

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Speaker 1: against righty's against lefties, he was awesome at home. If

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Speaker 1: he was as well as effective in road games as

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Speaker 1: he was at Lone Depot Park, then maybe he would

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Speaker 1: have been. In that conversation, this ties almost perfectly into

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Speaker 1: one that Arm came up with himself a separate Bold prediction.

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Speaker 1: We did these independently, and the one that ARM came

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Speaker 1: up with is that Pablo would rank a top five

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Speaker 1: in National League earned run average. And as I told you,

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Speaker 1: the number he has going into this final structure of

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Speaker 1: the season is three to three, and if you pull

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Speaker 1: up the National League leaders, he doesn't qualify to be

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Speaker 1: a traditional qualifier for the league. This is something that

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Speaker 1: gets to go on a brief tangent. I think the

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Speaker 1: league has to change. They should lower the threshold. Right now,

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Speaker 1: it's you need to throw one inning for every team game,

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Speaker 1: so for the season at least one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: two innings, but barely anybody does that anymore due to injuries,

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Speaker 1: due to precautionary rests, due to the fact that team

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Speaker 1: relying more on their bullpen than ever before. So if

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Speaker 1: you lowered that threshold to one hundred innings so that

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Speaker 1: it just includes Pablo, then you find that he is

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Speaker 1: fifteenth in the National League in ERA fifteen out of

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Speaker 1: fifty eight, so in the top quarter of the entire

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Speaker 1: National League. Not quite as elite as ARM was forecasting

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Speaker 1: him to be, but great a great season that Pablo

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Speaker 1: was having prior to that shoulder issue. Very important to

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Speaker 1: see if he's able to fully return to being healthy

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Speaker 1: at this very end of the year so that they

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Speaker 1: don't have that injury concern lurking over their entire offseason

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Speaker 1: with him, because they have some interesting decisions to look

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Speaker 1: into with their entire pitching staff. And Pablo is a

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Speaker 1: guy who's entering a point of his career where either

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Speaker 1: you see him as a potential trade candidate or potential

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Speaker 1: extension candidate, and you could always just played out year

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Speaker 1: by year as well, but he's somebody that has a

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Speaker 1: lot of value either to the Marlins or to another team,

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Speaker 1: especially if he's healthy. That's going to be the key.

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Speaker 1: So we're halfway through ten total Bold predictions that would

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Speaker 1: put together, and so far, yeah, the only one that

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Speaker 1: was a clear hit was arum on Trevor Rodgers and

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Speaker 1: the National League Rookie of the Year. We'll go to

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Speaker 1: another one of mine here, which will be the Marlins.

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Speaker 1: This is the one that I missed the biggest on.

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Speaker 1: I'd say the Marlins defense ranking number one in Major

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Speaker 1: League Baseball. I kept that vague and open ended, but

390
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Speaker 1: it was with the idea that through some combination of

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Speaker 1: defensive efficiency through stats like defensive unsaved, just the overall

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Speaker 1: perception of the team that the Marlins fielding would be

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Speaker 1: as good as anybody's in the league, and that hasn't

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Speaker 1: been the case. The biggest reason why I miss fired

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Speaker 1: on this was coming down to personnel, just the individual

396
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Speaker 1: players that ended up playing the most for the Marlins,

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Speaker 1: where I liked the bounce back potential of their veteran outfielders.

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Speaker 1: So some of that was Corey Dickerson optimism that Starlinge

399
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Speaker 1: Marte and Adam Duval would age well and that that

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Speaker 1: was kind of all the money, wasn't it with Marte

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Speaker 1: and Duval. Unfortunately, they ended up trading both Marte and

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Speaker 1: Duval at the deadline, so that took a big bite

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Speaker 1: into it. I thought Mickey Rowe would be really steady

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Speaker 1: at shortstop, which he has been, and I thought Brian

405
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Speaker 1: Anderson is still extremely underrated. This could be the year

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Speaker 1: that he made that leap to be a true Gold

407
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Speaker 1: Glove contender, and unfortunately with BA he was playing great defense,

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Speaker 1: but more than half of his season was wiped out

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Speaker 1: with that shoulder injury. They will now require surgery. Some

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Speaker 1: guys I thought we'd see more of that. We really

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Speaker 1: didn't until the very end. Is Lewin Diez. I thought

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Speaker 1: they'd find a way to squeeze him into the team

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Speaker 1: early in the season, that once he got called up

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Speaker 1: at some point that he would be there to stay.

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Speaker 1: And we know the Marlins they had a very different

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Speaker 1: philosophy when it came to that. They did not call

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Speaker 1: him up on a permanent basis until just this past

418
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Speaker 1: week when hayss Aguilar suffered what seems to be a

419
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Speaker 1: season ending knee injury. The number of reps that he's

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Speaker 1: going to get is just a tiny fraction of what

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Speaker 1: I think was reasonable to forecast for him. He was

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Speaker 1: a pretty substantial defensive upgrade at first base compared to

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Speaker 1: just about anybody else on the Marlins roster that they

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Speaker 1: weren't getting. I was hoping for a career year defensively

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Speaker 1: for Jorge al Farrow. I was not really buying into

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Speaker 1: any sort of change in his plate approach, which is

427
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Speaker 1: notoriously terrible. He just seemed to have a great understanding

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Speaker 1: that he was in a make or break year here.

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Speaker 1: In twenty twenty one, he talked about putting in the

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Speaker 1: work over the off season to address that to become

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Speaker 1: a more well rounded defensive catcher after being inconsistent in

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Speaker 1: that regard. After being benched for the playoffs in twenty twenty,

433
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 1: he had all the motivation he needed being in a

434
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: situation where his career is going just year by year

435
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 1: that he knew the urgency to figure it out on

436
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 1: that end. As it played out, he just didn't translate

437
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 1: at all whatever work that he was putting in during

438
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 1: the offseason. It didn't help. It got so bad that

439
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 1: for this final two months of the schedule he has

440
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 1: been relegated to a part time left fielder and an

441
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 1: emergency first baseman. They moved him off the position entirely

442
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 1: because they've lost so much hope in him being able

443
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 1: to contribute on that side of the ball and while

444
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: also you know, being able to keep his focus on

445
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 1: the bat as well. We we've talked about that how

446
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,199
Speaker 1: asinine it is the way that they've handled him, But

447
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 1: it just starts with the fact that he was did

448
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 1: not take that step forward defensively that a lot of people,

449
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 1: myself included, thought he was capable of doing. Yeah, I

450
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 1: could go through even others on the list. Jazz Jazz

451
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 1: Chisholm who will be getting to in just a few minutes.

452
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 1: Jazz is not at the defensive season that we thought

453
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 1: he might have. He got off to a really nice

454
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,120
Speaker 1: start as their second baseman. Ever since coming back from

455
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 1: that very first injury, that hamstring injury that suffered in

456
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 1: late April, he hasn't been as good. And we know

457
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 1: he's been really overmatched as a shortstop in those opportunities,

458
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 1: also at second base. Just a lot of routine stuff

459
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 1: that he is over complicating it. So when you put

460
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 1: it all together, there's been I think this miss misrepresentation

461
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 1: of the defense that just because they're among the major

462
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 1: league leaders and errors that they are at the very

463
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 1: bottom of the defensive scale. I don't think that's accurate

464
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: that you really put it all together there right around

465
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 1: the middle of the pack, if not slightly above average.

466
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 1: The kind of ground that these guys cover, the smart

467
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 1: defensive positioning that the Marlins have to put their guys

468
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 1: in positions to be sixsful and to be able to

469
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 1: catch up to balls that they ordinarily wouldn't. It's it's fine,

470
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 1: it's fine, but it needs to be a greater strength

471
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 1: of this team moving forward. I believe that it can

472
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 1: be some of the pieces that they have in place

473
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 1: this year. Unfortunately, it wasn't there for them, and it's

474
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 1: one reason why you know they're pitching. This flows perfectly

475
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: into another one of arms bold predictions about the team era.

476
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 1: He thought the Marlins pitching staff would rank top three

477
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,919
Speaker 1: in the National League and earned on average. Well, I

478
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,679
Speaker 1: should clarify that, you know, his bold prediction was that

479
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 1: they could do this. Remember these are all purposely bold.

480
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 1: That we made these predictions known that the likelihood of

481
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 1: the coming tree wasn't great. Going out on a limb,

482
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 1: he thought the Marlins would crack the top three and

483
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 1: National League in era, and that's not going to happen.

484
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 1: And it's really even before you go into exactly what

485
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 1: happened with the Marlins, it's more so just three amazing

486
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 1: teams separating themselves. It's the Dodgers, It's the Giants, It's

487
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 1: the Brewers. Have been amazing at pitcher run prevention. The

488
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 1: Dodgers as a team, as we go to the final

489
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 1: lease of the season, they have a team er below three,

490
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 1: which is otherworldly to maintain over a full length season.

491
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 1: The Brewers and the Giants just credit to them. They

492
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 1: these were not perceived to be great teams heading into

493
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 1: regular season by any measure, And as it turns out,

494
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 1: the Giants are the best record in baseball, and the

495
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 1: Brewers are not that far behind. The Giants and the

496
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: Dodgers teams. Both those teams have already punished their ticket

497
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 1: to be in the postseason, led as much as anything

498
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: by their great pitching staff, so those teams are kind

499
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 1: of out of reach. The Marlins are above average in

500
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 1: terms of er in the National League, where they can

501
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 1: finish anywhere from fourth to seventh, and the way things

502
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: are trending, it looks like they'll be like six or

503
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: seven the National League. Again, still above average, even at

504
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 1: a time where Lone Depot Park is playing more hitter

505
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 1: friendly than ever before. In general, still favors pitchers, but

506
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: they keep bringing in those fences every couple of years.

507
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 1: It is going to catch up eventually in changing those conditions, led,

508
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 1: of course, by more so than anybody else, Sandy al Contra.

509
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 1: And that's the guy I'm kicking myself about, because he's

510
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 1: the one that if you look at the bulk predictions

511
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 1: at arm and I had about Pablo, you know Sandy

512
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 1: has really eclipsed them. This year by taking it another

513
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 1: step forward in his game. The most important part is

514
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 1: that he's just been so durable. He's been even not

515
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 1: just from start to start, but within starts, from ending

516
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 1: to ending. He is a perfect role model for all

517
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 1: the Marlins pitchers coming up in this organization about how

518
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: to continually make adjustments and get better. So he's the

519
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 1: one that has put that brought that er in the

520
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: right direction just due to the shoe volume of his reps.

521
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 1: Both Pablo and Trevor have been great, just as good

522
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 1: in terms of era when they've been available, although both

523
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 1: of them, of course, as I mentioned, have missed some

524
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: time this year in the bullpen, I touched on some

525
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 1: of these guys as well, Anthony Bender, Dylan Floro, sub

526
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 1: three eras from both of those guys. Really the main

527
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,479
Speaker 1: culprit here was the back end of that rotation, the

528
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 1: injuries that they had from the very beginning of the

529
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 1: year with six Do and Eliezer Hernandez. When eliz Or

530
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 1: Hernandez got back, he's been up and down a little bit.

531
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: He has not been the best version of himself due

532
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 1: to more so than anything, I point to his command

533
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: just being not as precise as it was during the

534
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 1: short season, all the other guys filling their shoes at

535
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 1: the back end of the rotation. It's been messy. We

536
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 1: got a little bit of Nick Knider, Braxton Garrett, Jordan

537
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 1: Holloway had his moments, but also especially when he's putting

538
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 1: a starter's role, it just did not work for him

539
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 1: so many openers. The Marlins, of course, by far, set

540
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 1: a record for using the most total starting pitchers in

541
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 1: franchise history this year. They have used eighteen different starting

542
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 1: pitchers this year, and most of them have been below

543
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 1: average when they've been in that role. The future looks

544
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 1: super bright if arm wants to double down on that

545
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 1: prediction next year for them to finish top three in

546
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 1: the National League. And eer, I don't even think you'd

547
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 1: call that a bold prediction. They are well set up

548
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 1: to do something like that moving forward. So we are

549
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: through seven bold predictions. A quick refresher these combined between

550
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 1: arm Leyden and myself Trevor Rodgers finishing top three in

551
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 1: National League Rookie of the Year that's on the money.

552
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 1: All these other ones so far have been fairly off

553
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 1: in one way or the other. Corey Dickerson earning a

554
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 1: National League All Star selection, Papulo Lopez ranking top five

555
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 1: and National League ERA or earning National League Cy Young

556
00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 1: Award votes, Marlin's pitching staff ranking top three in National

557
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 1: League Eer Anthony Bender leading the Marlins and saves, and

558
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 1: the Marlins defense ranking number one in Major League Baseball.

559
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 1: One for six so far, my second to last one

560
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 1: for myself individually, so number eight out of our ten combined.

561
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Jazz. Jazz. I had him hitting twenty

562
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: plus home runs this season in his rookie season, his

563
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: first full major league season after the Cup of Coffee

564
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 1: last year. I was feeling pretty good those first opening

565
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 1: weeks of the season when he was barreling up Jacob

566
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 1: de Grom. Everybody remembers that, and not just him. He

567
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 1: had a handful of home runs in April before that

568
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 1: first injury. He was in one moment leading all baseball

569
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 1: qualifiers in barrel rate, which tends to be a important

570
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 1: predictor of hitting for power in games moving forward, And

571
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 1: when you look at his season overall, it's been fine

572
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 1: relative to expectations, and more than fine if you consider

573
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 1: where Marlins thought they were with this second base situation

574
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 1: entering the year. He absolutely has the potential to be

575
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 1: a good everyday player for a number of years, and

576
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: he's done things this year that should improve as he

577
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: gets older. This is not the peak that Jazz is

578
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: back to. For whatever reason, he has not been barreling

579
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 1: the ball nearly as frequently as the season has worn

580
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 1: on as he was earlier in the year. You know,

581
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 1: forget everything else, Like there are certain things you could

582
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 1: kind of understand a guy not being able to sustain

583
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 1: over the course of a long season, especially when you're inexperienced.

584
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 1: It has been a bit of a head scratcher that

585
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 1: he fell off so much with that home run pace.

586
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 1: When he does barrel up, it goes a long way.

587
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 1: I think his average home run distance is right up

588
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: there with the best on the entire Marlins team. So

589
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 1: he reached down a fielder's choice in the sixth inning

590
00:33:55,680 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 1: and Jazz hits one time. As we record this, with

591
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 1: sixteen Marlins games to go, he is at fifteen home runs.

592
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 1: Can he hit five over the last sixteen games. Potentially,

593
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 1: it's possible that would just be the pace that he

594
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 1: was at the very start of this year. I would

595
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 1: call that unlikely. So this is the one that we

596
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 1: still don't have like a final clarification on which way

597
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: it's gonna go, but I can say kind of objectively

598
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 1: that it's unlikely he'll hit that mark in terms of

599
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 1: home runs. What he's been missing also a little bit,

600
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,240
Speaker 1: is I thought he would be able to hit homers

601
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 1: to all fields. And let me pull up the splits

602
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:51,760
Speaker 1: right now, at least anecdotally and by the eye tests,

603
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 1: I feel like almost all of his home runs this

604
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 1: year have been pulled home runs instead of being able

605
00:34:56,560 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 1: to use the whole field. Yeah, only one home run

606
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: that went truly to the opposite field all season. He

607
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 1: has hit a couple to center field as well to

608
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 1: dead center, but I thought he'd be using the opposite

609
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 1: field a little bit more. That's kind of one key

610
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 1: ingredient that's been missing for Jazz that I thought that

611
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 1: When you also look at the way he's been hitting,

612
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 1: let's look at it against left handed pitching when he's

613
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 1: at that platoon disadvantage. Those numbers overall have been fine,

614
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 1: actually extremely similar against both lefties and righty's. Yeah, so

615
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:32,399
Speaker 1: that really hasn't been an issue with him, But yeah,

616
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 1: not quite as disciplined as the season has gone on,

617
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 1: and not getting into as many favorable accounts as he

618
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 1: potentially could do moving forward. This is another one where

619
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 1: if we look at twenty twenty two and you predict

620
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:46,760
Speaker 1: that Jazz is going to get twenty plus home runs,

621
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 1: that is not bold at all because he has that

622
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 1: firm lock on the second base job at this point

623
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 1: and it's no longer a doubt. I think this was

624
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 1: a nice The process behind this was sounds in my opinion,

625
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 1: because this is one we made in spring training, before

626
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 1: the end of spring training, when Esan Diez was still

627
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 1: neck and neck with him in terms of making it

628
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 1: on the opening day roster. It was not a sure

629
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 1: thing that Jazz would be on the opening day roster

630
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one. When I made this pick in

631
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,280
Speaker 1: the first place, I was pretty confident that he would

632
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 1: eventually take over us an everyday player and that he

633
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:27,280
Speaker 1: would certainly outperform Isan, which has proven to be very,

634
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:33,359
Speaker 1: very true. The reaching twenty will be a tough one

635
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 1: down the stretch, so something he'll do in the future.

636
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 1: I may have been a little bit premature on that,

637
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:44,359
Speaker 1: so final to both predictions to review, this is one

638
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 1: where we went head to head arm and I we

639
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 1: came up with these completely separately, but both of us

640
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 1: had an individual minor league player in minds that we

641
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:57,439
Speaker 1: thought would have a big year, and he went with

642
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 1: Griffin Conine and I went with Cameron Meisner. These predictions

643
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 1: made I think before even minor league spring training even started,

644
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:08,959
Speaker 1: so we didn't know that these guys would actually start

645
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 1: the season as teammates. Both of them were assigned to

646
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: High A Blite, playing pretty much every single day to

647
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 1: start the year. Meisner played really all three of the

648
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 1: outfield spots. Conine was mostly in the corners and with

649
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 1: plenty of designated hitter reps as well. Both guys that

650
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 1: were early round draft picks coming out of college but

651
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 1: had not had the opportunity to play a full length

652
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 1: minor league baseball season until now. And my big thought

653
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 1: process was going with Meisner, which is pretty much the

654
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 1: same as from arms perspective, is that we thought these guys,

655
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 1: even if they did have this amazing year, they were

656
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 1: a little too far down on the outfield depth chart

657
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:54,440
Speaker 1: to actually break through to the majors, so they'd be

658
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 1: putting up these numbers in the minor leagues and they

659
00:37:56,719 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 1: would be contenders for the Marlins Minor League Player of

660
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,959
Speaker 1: the Year honors. That's what these bold predictions were, being

661
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 1: the top organizational position player. The process that the team

662
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 1: uses to determine that is a little bit fuzzy just

663
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 1: looking at precedent. It's guys that play pretty much every

664
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 1: day that it put up a lot of home runs,

665
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 1: that hit for a high average, that are just really good,

666
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 1: mostly offensive players. Over the course of a full length season.

667
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 1: Arm took a big lead what may prove to be

668
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 1: an insurmountable lead over me in this category because Griffin

669
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 1: Conine through the first couple months of the season was fantastic.

670
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:40,280
Speaker 1: He was better than I think even ARM envisions, leading

671
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,440
Speaker 1: all of minor league baseball in home runs for the

672
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 1: vast majority of the season. He hit I believe it

673
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:49,720
Speaker 1: was twenty two of them at High A ble Loite

674
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 1: before finally forcing a promotion to the next level, and

675
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 1: they really had to contort the roster kind of to

676
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:58,760
Speaker 1: squeeze him on twenty three. Excuse me. He had twenty

677
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,959
Speaker 1: three home runs in six games, more than one every

678
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 1: three games, basically hitting two home runs every week at

679
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 1: the High A level ops at nine to sixty nine

680
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 1: prior to his promotion, the strikeouts were there and they

681
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 1: have always been there and they will continue to be there.

682
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 1: With Griffin Conine, there's going to be just a cap

683
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 1: on his ability to get hits, just because of all

684
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 1: the swing and missing this game. When he was making contact,

685
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 1: it was going a long way, it was going to

686
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: all fields. It was an awesome show and understandably an

687
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:40,280
Speaker 1: incredible story for the son of mister Marlin Jeff Conine. Meanwhile,

688
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: with Cameron Meiser, he was slow out of the gate,

689
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 1: really slow. He was drawing his walks. That is a

690
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 1: trait that he's always had, being really disciplined, being very patient.

691
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 1: He was contributing, of course to Bloit, an extraordinary base

692
00:39:55,719 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 1: runner and bass steeler, as well as all reference now

693
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,800
Speaker 1: and we'll go back to in just a moment. Meisner

694
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:05,800
Speaker 1: was a guest on the new episode of Swimming Upstream,

695
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 1: the podcast from Fish on the Farm, where he talked

696
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 1: about his base stealing secrets, or at least he hinted

697
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 1: at it being able to time up the pitcher and

698
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 1: get to a certain point and turning it into a

699
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 1: math equation in terms of being whether or not he'd

700
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 1: be able to reach the next spase in time and

701
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:26,399
Speaker 1: to this point in his career. It has worked out fabulously,

702
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 1: certainly with the boost from having certain rule changes in

703
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 1: High A this year that made it even easier to

704
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,319
Speaker 1: steal than before. He was taken advantage of it. He

705
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 1: just wasn't hitting for impact for the first couple months

706
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 1: of this minor league season, which was also kind of

707
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 1: the case in his previous year in twenty nineteen as well,

708
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:48,840
Speaker 1: something to be a little bit concerned about, and it

709
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:51,360
Speaker 1: ticked up for him right around the start of July,

710
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:55,479
Speaker 1: especially as we got towards the end of July. That's

711
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 1: when he really started being a run producer. Most of

712
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 1: that actually right after Griffin got promoted to Double A.

713
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 1: Then Meisner became like the one guy to circle in

714
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 1: their lineup and he thrived on it. So he had

715
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 1: a streak in there where I think he reached base

716
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:15,279
Speaker 1: like thirty consecutive games, and he himself he forced his

717
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 1: way up to Double A as well, so once again

718
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 1: as a record this They've now been teammates for the

719
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 1: final few weeks of the season at Double A Pensacola,

720
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 1: both of them playing close to every day in the

721
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 1: outfield for Pensacola, and Meisner has stayed hot. He as

722
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 1: we answered play on Wednesday night, hitting three thirty three

723
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 1: with a nine to forty three ohps since getting the

724
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 1: move up, drawing a lot of walks, hitting a ton

725
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 1: of doubles, a stat that Alex Scarver brought up on

726
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:49,880
Speaker 1: Fishing on the Farm that he leads the Marlins organization

727
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,359
Speaker 1: with twenty nine doubles, more than anybody else at any

728
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 1: other level of the organization. And one thing he said

729
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,320
Speaker 1: on the podcast, and I have a quote here about

730
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 1: kind of what clicked for him as the season went on,

731
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 1: just being aware of my overall swing, he said, just

732
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 1: knowing myself has allowed me to spit on pitches that

733
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 1: my swing doesn't play well with, and it has allowed

734
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 1: me to get to pitches that my swing does play

735
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:18,760
Speaker 1: well with. As simple as that, he is just knowing

736
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:23,359
Speaker 1: playing to your strengths as a player and being able

737
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 1: to barre up the ball once you do so. He

738
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 1: really does bare up the ball great. So we get

739
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 1: to this point, the season is winding down. This is

740
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:34,720
Speaker 1: the final few days of the minor league regular season,

741
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:38,880
Speaker 1: which is why I'm recording this now. It's you'd be surprised,

742
00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 1: you know how similar now their seasons. Look where Conine

743
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:45,919
Speaker 1: has an eight sixty six OPS, Meisner has a seven

744
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 1: to ninety five OPS. But Meisner adds a lot more

745
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 1: value as a base runner twenty six stolen bases and

746
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 1: thirty tries compared to Conine with just three stolen bases.

747
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 1: In terms of on base percentage, Meser at fifty eight

748
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:05,359
Speaker 1: and Conine at three thirty two. In terms of extra

749
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 1: base hits, it's still a pretty significant lead for Conine

750
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 1: forty nine extra base hits, including thirty six home runs,

751
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,720
Speaker 1: which is still second best in all minor league baseball.

752
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:20,359
Speaker 1: Meisner has forty six extra base hits, and you know,

753
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 1: just to stop teasing you long. Based on how this

754
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 1: stuff usually goes and with the narrative backing him up,

755
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:30,640
Speaker 1: Conine is the favorite to win Minor League Player of

756
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 1: the Year. Really, the only guys that could steal it

757
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 1: from him would have to be ones that we haven't

758
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 1: even brought up. Peyden Burdick, who was very highly regarded

759
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:46,480
Speaker 1: prospect entering this year, and as he's a nice fusion

760
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 1: kind of of Meisner and of Conine with his his

761
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:54,359
Speaker 1: aggressiveness and also with his power and also with his

762
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 1: outfield versatility and all that, like Burdick, has had a

763
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,399
Speaker 1: very compa years to these guys, even without the one

764
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 1: standout stat to back him up. And Troy Johnston, who

765
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 1: really was under the radar entering twenty twenty one, starting

766
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 1: in Low A, spending most of the season in High A,

767
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 1: where his offensive production has been arguably better than any

768
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 1: of these other guys as a run producer, as an

769
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 1: on base machine, his consistency has been certainly better than

770
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 1: either Conine or Meisner. But you know, just to wrap

771
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:30,319
Speaker 1: it up, I do think Conine is going to win,

772
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 1: and I think even the fact that it's even close

773
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:37,040
Speaker 1: gives a lot of credit to Arum over me. Because

774
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:41,439
Speaker 1: Meisner was the consensus quote unquote better prospect entering twenty

775
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 1: twenty one. That might still be the case, but it

776
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 1: has not necessarily made him the better candidate for this

777
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 1: award this season. Arum believed in Griffin's work ethic and

778
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 1: the adjustments that he'd made. They'd paid off. They certainly

779
00:44:56,719 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 1: have to put together a really memorable year for him.

780
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:04,240
Speaker 1: So it is one definitive bold prediction that Aram nailed

781
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 1: with Trevor Rodgers, and this one is pretty close to

782
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 1: a lock as well with Griffin Conine winning Minor League

783
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 1: Player of the Year. I think I did fine with

784
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:15,919
Speaker 1: the Cameron Meisner one. He did have a good year.

785
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 1: I'll be curious to see whether he plays in Fall League's.

786
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 1: He's no doubt gonna get a invite to Major league

787
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 1: spring training next year, and I think he's on track

788
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:28,719
Speaker 1: to have a nice, nice career, either with the Marlins

789
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 1: or with another team. And I got close with the

790
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:33,240
Speaker 1: Jazz chiz one too. If he had just stayed healthy,

791
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 1: avoid those nick cuts and bruises, and he would have

792
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 1: had that fairly easily if that had been the case,

793
00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 1: And even now you know he has if everything goes

794
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 1: right for him down the stretch, maybe is a chance

795
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 1: to take care of that again. I encourage you to

796
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:54,840
Speaker 1: check out all of arham stuff, Locked on Marlins podcast,

797
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 1: everything on Just Baseball, including the podcast that he does

798
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 1: with Jeff Conine if you were not familiar with that.

799
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:05,279
Speaker 1: Outside the Box of Jeff Conine has been a fantastic

800
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 1: show that debuted this summer and does a great job

801
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 1: of balancing mister Marlin's memories from his playing career and

802
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:17,840
Speaker 1: also his foresight into where the game is headed moving forward.

803
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 1: Be sure to check that out. And another plug for

804
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 1: Fish on the Farm and They're Swimming Upstream podcast that

805
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 1: was featuring my guy Cameron Meisner. Already got to start

806
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:33,840
Speaker 1: culminating ideas for those twenty twenty two Bold Marlins predictions

807
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:36,880
Speaker 1: because I'm pretty satisfied with the variety that we covered

808
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 1: on this one. Thank you, as always for the support.

809
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 1: Remember to leave a rating and review for this pod

810
00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 1: if you hadn't already, to help us in our donation

811
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:49,719
Speaker 1: to support the Player's Alliance covering the Marlins every day

812
00:46:49,840 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 1: here on Fish Strip's I'm Elis Susman, Go Fish Inducted

813
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 1: and Inducted intept who infected