WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Robert D. Kaplan & Ed Morse

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea, my single best idea, is to have

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<v Speaker 2>I have a book of the year, an article of

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<v Speaker 2>the year, an essay of the year, if you will.

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<v Speaker 2>My essay of the year was Lawrence McDonald last year,

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<v Speaker 2>who's got a new book out. We'll get to that

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<v Speaker 2>as we stagger through the spring. One day is going

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<v Speaker 2>to warm up in New York City? Did it snow

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<v Speaker 2>to day? Eric? I think it's like, are you kidding me?

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<v Speaker 2>When's this scent? Plus are playing baseball? The Mets have

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<v Speaker 2>played like one game right, I mean, it's terrible. Anyways,

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<v Speaker 2>the book of the year last year was The Loom

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<v Speaker 2>of Time, and it is spectacular. I just it's it's

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<v Speaker 2>standard Robert D. Kaplan, and in this case he goes

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<v Speaker 2>from Morocco chapter by chapter east over to the stands

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<v Speaker 2>and chapter three wanders into Constantinople. And so we had

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<v Speaker 2>the Airwan News. I said, of course, get Robert D.

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<v Speaker 2>Kaplan because the Luma Time is spectacular and he's very,

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<v Speaker 2>very knowledgeable about the twenty two years of Ariijwuan. We

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<v Speaker 2>did that, But then the bonus of our extended conversations,

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<v Speaker 2>I think Paul Sweeny brought this up, was Israel and

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<v Speaker 2>what we see in Gaza and what all of us

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<v Speaker 2>are agonizing over in the Levant Here is Robert D.

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<v Speaker 2>Kaplan on efter net Nyahu.

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<v Speaker 3>I think the morning after mister N'atagne who exits, you

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<v Speaker 3>will see the same policy more or less applied in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, a determination to fit to kill off those

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<v Speaker 3>or to defeat those last six or eight battalions of

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<v Speaker 3>Hamas in southern Gaza, in the Rafach area, the desire

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<v Speaker 3>to keep pressing militarily to kill off the Hamas leadership,

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<v Speaker 3>the desire to again restore sovereignty through in northern Israel,

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<v Speaker 3>through if necessary, a war with Hesba Lah. I think

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<v Speaker 3>that I think a lot of us have been, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>are living in a dream world that the policy is

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<v Speaker 3>going to suddenly shift forty five or ninety degrees in

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<v Speaker 3>a direction because of the end of Nettan Yahoo. I

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<v Speaker 3>think the fundamental you know, war policy will continue, though

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<v Speaker 3>it will take on a much more diplomatic Guys.

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<v Speaker 2>Rabitt Kaplan of course iconic at the Atlantic years ago,

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<v Speaker 2>a whole series of books, many of which I featured,

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<v Speaker 2>and again The Loom of Time, my book of the

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<v Speaker 2>year for two thousand twenty three. What an interesting show

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<v Speaker 2>today into the jobs report. We'll do the jobs report

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<v Speaker 2>on Friday. ADP coming in pretty well, great equity conversations

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<v Speaker 2>as well, but really the news it slipped into the

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<v Speaker 2>discussion this week has been commodities, and of course, led

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<v Speaker 2>by Brent Krude back out to ninety dollars a barrel.

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<v Speaker 2>There were two giants who slipped away from the major

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<v Speaker 2>houses at the end of twenty twenty three, and one

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<v Speaker 2>Jeffrey Curry at Goldman Sachs and another Edward Morse. It's

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<v Speaker 2>City Group. And I just said to myself, I can't

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<v Speaker 2>fathom Edward Morris not waking up every day thinking the geopolitics,

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<v Speaker 2>the macro picture of our global hydrocarbon supply and demand.

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<v Speaker 2>And of course Edward Morris is teamed up with Hartree.

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<v Speaker 2>It is an Amarada Hess original company thirty forty years ago.

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<v Speaker 2>Oak Tree is involved as well, and of course they're

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<v Speaker 2>doing great think tank work, if you will, on hydrocarbons.

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<v Speaker 2>Here is Edward Morse on our supply and demand at

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<v Speaker 2>ninety dollars a barrel.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think it's the demand side, Tom, I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's really the supply side. I think it's a combination

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<v Speaker 1>of fact is on the supply side. That combination of

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<v Speaker 1>factors is a restraint that a major producers are having

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<v Speaker 1>and putting crude oil into the market, and the distory

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<v Speaker 1>in the market that need to be worked out and

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<v Speaker 1>they will be worked out, that come from the blockages

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<v Speaker 1>of the Seuis Canal and leading sum D pipeline is

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<v Speaker 1>the only way to really get sustainable flows into the

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<v Speaker 1>Med and out of the Med from the Middle East

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<v Speaker 1>and through the Middle East. So we're going to have

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<v Speaker 1>as we did with Russia Ukraine, working out of freight

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<v Speaker 1>rates and working out of that distortion, weighing on prices eventually.

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<v Speaker 1>And what we don't really know is what their response

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be on the demand side with respect

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<v Speaker 1>to buying oil from the Middle East and elsewhere, particularly

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<v Speaker 1>in China.

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<v Speaker 2>Ed Morrise ending up there on China and they really

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<v Speaker 2>want to review this right now. The heritage of Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>surveillance is we're just as interested when our experts are

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<v Speaker 2>wrong is when they're right, but we do like the

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<v Speaker 2>trumpet when they're right. Edward Morris with absolutely the greatest

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<v Speaker 2>hydro carbon call coming out of the pandemic. Everyone was

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<v Speaker 2>looking for bigger demand, many models of ninety dollars a barrel,

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred dare I say modeling out a fan distribution

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<v Speaker 2>up to one hundred and ten one hundred and twenty

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<v Speaker 2>dollars a barrel, And Edward Morris very quietly said, no,

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<v Speaker 2>supply will come on. And he was dead right. He

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<v Speaker 2>was just he absolutely nailed oil. I'm going to say,

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<v Speaker 2>is a broad sense twenty twenty out to two thousand

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<v Speaker 2>and twenty two. That's the kind of guest that we

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<v Speaker 2>like to see. Of course, Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple car

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<v Speaker 2>Play on Google as well. Download the Bloomberg Business app

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<v Speaker 2>and you can get over to Apple car Play. It's

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<v Speaker 2>just the new consumption. Eric's in the fancy cars. I

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<v Speaker 2>don't have it in the nash, but you know it's

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<v Speaker 2>in Like if you have a fancy car, you have

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<v Speaker 2>Apple car Play. So they're going to build that out

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<v Speaker 2>and I'll take one, two, three, four years. Is our

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<v Speaker 2>cars age? Unlike us and the others. YouTube YouTube search,

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg podcasts. We are humbled, but I just got the

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<v Speaker 2>month end results. Thank you so much internationally for the

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<v Speaker 2>YouTube attention. And there's a live chat there is. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>we're really thrilled with Single Best Idea. We're bringing it out.

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<v Speaker 2>We're looking at artwork and you know, fancy other stuff

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<v Speaker 2>as well. Hope you like it. At Apple is a

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<v Speaker 2>place to get this podcast, Single Best Idea