Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea, my single best idea, is to have
Speaker 2: I have a book of the year, an article of
Speaker 2: the year, an essay of the year, if you will.
Speaker 2: My essay of the year was Lawrence McDonald last year,
Speaker 2: who's got a new book out. We'll get to that
Speaker 2: as we stagger through the spring. One day is going
Speaker 2: to warm up in New York City? Did it snow
Speaker 2: to day? Eric? I think it's like, are you kidding me?
Speaker 2: When's this scent? Plus are playing baseball? The Mets have
Speaker 2: played like one game right, I mean, it's terrible. Anyways,
Speaker 2: the book of the year last year was The Loom
Speaker 2: of Time, and it is spectacular. I just it's it's
Speaker 2: standard Robert D. Kaplan, and in this case he goes
Speaker 2: from Morocco chapter by chapter east over to the stands
Speaker 2: and chapter three wanders into Constantinople. And so we had
Speaker 2: the Airwan News. I said, of course, get Robert D.
Speaker 2: Kaplan because the Luma Time is spectacular and he's very,
Speaker 2: very knowledgeable about the twenty two years of Ariijwuan. We
Speaker 2: did that, But then the bonus of our extended conversations,
Speaker 2: I think Paul Sweeny brought this up, was Israel and
Speaker 2: what we see in Gaza and what all of us
Speaker 2: are agonizing over in the Levant Here is Robert D.
Speaker 2: Kaplan on efter net Nyahu.
Speaker 3: I think the morning after mister N'atagne who exits, you
Speaker 3: will see the same policy more or less applied in Gaza.
Speaker 3: You know, a determination to fit to kill off those
Speaker 3: or to defeat those last six or eight battalions of
Speaker 3: Hamas in southern Gaza, in the Rafach area, the desire
Speaker 3: to keep pressing militarily to kill off the Hamas leadership,
Speaker 3: the desire to again restore sovereignty through in northern Israel,
Speaker 3: through if necessary, a war with Hesba Lah. I think
Speaker 3: that I think a lot of us have been, you know,
Speaker 3: are living in a dream world that the policy is
Speaker 3: going to suddenly shift forty five or ninety degrees in
Speaker 3: a direction because of the end of Nettan Yahoo. I
Speaker 3: think the fundamental you know, war policy will continue, though
Speaker 3: it will take on a much more diplomatic Guys.
Speaker 2: Rabitt Kaplan of course iconic at the Atlantic years ago,
Speaker 2: a whole series of books, many of which I featured,
Speaker 2: and again The Loom of Time, my book of the
Speaker 2: year for two thousand twenty three. What an interesting show
Speaker 2: today into the jobs report. We'll do the jobs report
Speaker 2: on Friday. ADP coming in pretty well, great equity conversations
Speaker 2: as well, but really the news it slipped into the
Speaker 2: discussion this week has been commodities, and of course, led
Speaker 2: by Brent Krude back out to ninety dollars a barrel.
Speaker 2: There were two giants who slipped away from the major
Speaker 2: houses at the end of twenty twenty three, and one
Speaker 2: Jeffrey Curry at Goldman Sachs and another Edward Morse. It's
Speaker 2: City Group. And I just said to myself, I can't
Speaker 2: fathom Edward Morris not waking up every day thinking the geopolitics,
Speaker 2: the macro picture of our global hydrocarbon supply and demand.
Speaker 2: And of course Edward Morris is teamed up with Hartree.
Speaker 2: It is an Amarada Hess original company thirty forty years ago.
Speaker 2: Oak Tree is involved as well, and of course they're
Speaker 2: doing great think tank work, if you will, on hydrocarbons.
Speaker 2: Here is Edward Morse on our supply and demand at
Speaker 2: ninety dollars a barrel.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's the demand side, Tom, I think
Speaker 1: it's really the supply side. I think it's a combination
Speaker 1: of fact is on the supply side. That combination of
Speaker 1: factors is a restraint that a major producers are having
Speaker 1: and putting crude oil into the market, and the distory
Speaker 1: in the market that need to be worked out and
Speaker 1: they will be worked out, that come from the blockages
Speaker 1: of the Seuis Canal and leading sum D pipeline is
Speaker 1: the only way to really get sustainable flows into the
Speaker 1: Med and out of the Med from the Middle East
Speaker 1: and through the Middle East. So we're going to have
Speaker 1: as we did with Russia Ukraine, working out of freight
Speaker 1: rates and working out of that distortion, weighing on prices eventually.
Speaker 1: And what we don't really know is what their response
Speaker 1: is going to be on the demand side with respect
Speaker 1: to buying oil from the Middle East and elsewhere, particularly
Speaker 1: in China.
Speaker 2: Ed Morrise ending up there on China and they really
Speaker 2: want to review this right now. The heritage of Bloomberg
Speaker 2: surveillance is we're just as interested when our experts are
Speaker 2: wrong is when they're right, but we do like the
Speaker 2: trumpet when they're right. Edward Morris with absolutely the greatest
Speaker 2: hydro carbon call coming out of the pandemic. Everyone was
Speaker 2: looking for bigger demand, many models of ninety dollars a barrel,
Speaker 2: one hundred dare I say modeling out a fan distribution
Speaker 2: up to one hundred and ten one hundred and twenty
Speaker 2: dollars a barrel, And Edward Morris very quietly said, no,
Speaker 2: supply will come on. And he was dead right. He
Speaker 2: was just he absolutely nailed oil. I'm going to say,
Speaker 2: is a broad sense twenty twenty out to two thousand
Speaker 2: and twenty two. That's the kind of guest that we
Speaker 2: like to see. Of course, Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple car
Speaker 2: Play on Google as well. Download the Bloomberg Business app
Speaker 2: and you can get over to Apple car Play. It's
Speaker 2: just the new consumption. Eric's in the fancy cars. I
Speaker 2: don't have it in the nash, but you know it's
Speaker 2: in Like if you have a fancy car, you have
Speaker 2: Apple car Play. So they're going to build that out
Speaker 2: and I'll take one, two, three, four years. Is our
Speaker 2: cars age? Unlike us and the others. YouTube YouTube search,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg podcasts. We are humbled, but I just got the
Speaker 2: month end results. Thank you so much internationally for the
Speaker 2: YouTube attention. And there's a live chat there is. Well,
Speaker 2: we're really thrilled with Single Best Idea. We're bringing it out.
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