1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 2: This is our one and I did miss you. I 6 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:18,760 Speaker 2: have to say Happy New Year, since we haven't had 7 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:20,279 Speaker 2: a chance to say that yet. I know it's getting 8 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,279 Speaker 2: a little late. Do you go through that at the store, 9 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 2: at the gas station? Now that we're a weekend, do 10 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: you still say Happy New Year? I'm still saying it 11 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 2: Happy twenty twenty four. It's going to start coming together 12 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:35,279 Speaker 2: now as Congress returns to town, and that's why we're 13 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: spending a couple of plates today. You've been hearing on 14 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 2: Bloomberg about a deal on top line spending levels that 15 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 2: might help to avoid a government shutdown. They say, not 16 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 2: those the same levels we agree to back in June. 17 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 2: We'll get to that, along with talk of a border deal, 18 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 2: potentially by the end of this week. And I know 19 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 2: you've heard me say that before, but it's one week 20 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 2: from Iowa, and that's where I want to start the 21 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 2: conversation with Will Hurd. Of course, former Republican residential candidate. 22 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 2: He's now behind Nicki Haley in the campaign, longtime a 23 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:08,680 Speaker 2: Texas congressman, former CIA officer, and can touch all of 24 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 2: the stories that we're talking about here, from the campaign 25 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 2: to the border to shut down politics. 26 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 3: Congressman. 27 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 2: It's good to see if welcome back voters actually are 28 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 2: going to start having a say, a week from today, 29 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,679 Speaker 2: we're going to have more than just polls to talk about. 30 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 2: And I wonder if it's a foregone conclusion that Donald 31 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 2: Trump wins the Iowa caucuses. 32 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 4: It's not a foregone conclusion. And Joe, I'm gonna start 33 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 4: with Happy New Year. I'm still saying it. I appreciate 34 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 4: and look, here's what we're going to see. You're seeing 35 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:41,759 Speaker 4: a number of town halls that are being done by 36 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 4: Fox News this week. Donald Trump is actually finally participating 37 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 4: in one. You're going to have a debate later this week, 38 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 4: which is ultimately good to see Nicky Haley and Ronda 39 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 4: Santis go head to head, and then we have voting 40 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 4: a next Monday. People should also be paying attention to 41 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 4: the weather because right now it's expected that weather in 42 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 4: most parts of Iowa is going to be in the 43 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 4: negative teens that's going to impact the number of people 44 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 4: that come out for caucuses. So it's not a foregone 45 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 4: conclusion that Donald Trump wins. You know, expect he thinks 46 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:19,360 Speaker 4: he's going to win by a large number. If he 47 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 4: doesn't win by a big number, people are gonna be 48 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:24,959 Speaker 4: talking about his vulnerability. So a lot can happen still 49 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 4: in seven days. 50 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:28,920 Speaker 3: Well, you just made a great point. 51 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 2: Aside from the weather and we are bundling up for this, 52 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 2: I'm actually a little bit scared. 53 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 3: And that's a real deal. 54 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 2: It's not just about those of us who are there 55 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:38,799 Speaker 2: from warmer clims. They'll be shivering in Des Moines. That 56 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 2: could actually be a turnout story, and you can speak 57 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 2: to that. But the way you just framed it is 58 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 2: basically a question of by how much will Donald Trump win? 59 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 2: In other words, a potential moral victory for someone who 60 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:54,640 Speaker 2: could come in second place in a strong showing as 61 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 2: Nicki Haley that candidate. 62 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 4: I think Nicki is absolutely that canids She's the only 63 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 4: person that has been having momentum since the very beginning 64 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,239 Speaker 4: of this race. Actually, when you look at head to 65 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 4: hair comparisons in a general election between her and Joe Biden, 66 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 4: she's winning by double digits. Most people only focusing on 67 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 4: the fact that Donald Trump may be up on Joe 68 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 4: Biden by three or four points. Nicki Haley has consistently 69 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,679 Speaker 4: been up by double digits. So if Republicans want to 70 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 4: see a absolute victory in November, Nicki Haley is the 71 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 4: best choice. And that helps up and down the ballot. 72 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:33,359 Speaker 4: And when we look at the debates that are going 73 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 4: on in Congress, you want to make sure there's really 74 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 4: big coattails to keep the House in Republicans' hands. Right now, 75 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 4: we're basically at a two Republicans only have a two 76 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 4: seat majority that can potentially flip in November. Senate looks 77 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 4: good for Republicans taking over. So if you want to 78 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:58,040 Speaker 4: see conservative leadership in Washington see and getting things done, 79 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 4: I think Nicky has the best chance. That's the case 80 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 4: she's been making throughout these early states. 81 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 2: I'm going to throw this at you before I changed 82 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 2: the topic to what's happening here in Washington, and would 83 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 2: love your take on that as we spend time with 84 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 2: Will Hurd. The Emerson poll out of South Carolina out 85 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:19,840 Speaker 2: Friday shows a tough go for Nicki Haley in her 86 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:25,359 Speaker 2: home state twenty five percent to Donald Trump's fifty four percent. 87 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 2: There's been a lot of talk about some of the 88 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 2: confusion surrounding her answer on what caused the Civil War? Recently, 89 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 2: is that going to be a deficit for her in 90 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,359 Speaker 2: South Carolina and how important will that state be for 91 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 2: her potential to move forward. 92 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 3: She's made it. 93 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 4: Very clear that the Civil War, the reason for the 94 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 4: Civil War was slavery. She has talked about her mistake 95 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 4: and not having that be the first thing that came 96 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,799 Speaker 4: out of her mouth. I think many of her opponents 97 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:54,839 Speaker 4: are using that in order to try to create drama 98 00:04:54,960 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 4: and to stop that momentum that she's been seeing. But 99 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 4: I think you're going to start seeing momentum continue to 100 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 4: build in Iowa and New Hampshire as she goes into 101 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:09,479 Speaker 4: her home state that she knows incredibly well. And so 102 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 4: you know, this is as you said at the top 103 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 4: of this conversation, it's exciting that we're soon going to 104 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 4: get to have to not worrying about what polls are 105 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 4: saying and seeing what voters are actually saying, because I 106 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 4: will I will say this, if you look at some 107 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,479 Speaker 4: of the polling versus votes of significant votes over the 108 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 4: last let's call it nine months the abortion of ballot 109 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 4: initiative in Iowa, the gubernatorial race in Kentucky. The polling 110 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:42,600 Speaker 4: did not reflect what actually happened at at the ballot box. 111 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 4: And so this is going to come down to who 112 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 4: has the best organized campaign and what when voters are 113 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:50,359 Speaker 4: finally thinking about what do we want? Do we want, 114 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 4: you know, four more years of chaos, or do we 115 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 4: want someone who's thoughtful, who understands foreign policy. Do we 116 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 4: want an accountant in the White House so that we 117 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 4: start actually getting our financial house and order. 118 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,280 Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you the story here in Washington today 119 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 2: is not so much about the presidential campaign who the 120 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:12,720 Speaker 2: next president will be, but whether we're going to have 121 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 2: a government shut down in a couple of weeks. And 122 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 2: I know that there's now an agreement on top line spending. 123 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 2: It's the same agreement we had in the debt ceialing deal. 124 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 2: So I have to admit I don't know if there's 125 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 2: even much reason to talk about it, because it doesn't 126 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 2: feel like progress. Jim Langford, though, says there is progress 127 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 2: on the border. Will heard last time you were here, 128 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,040 Speaker 2: there was a hope that this might be done by 129 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 2: the end of the year, and of course would help 130 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:37,359 Speaker 2: to unlock funding for Ukraine, but would bring a long 131 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 2: sought compromise on border security and on immigration reform on 132 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 2: asylum law. Are you as optimistic now as you were 133 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago here, because we're hearing from negotiators, 134 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,280 Speaker 2: including Langford, that there could be text by the end 135 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:53,279 Speaker 2: of this week. 136 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 4: Langford is a serious guy, he's a thoughtful guy. He's 137 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 4: not someone he's not going to say that if they're 138 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,359 Speaker 4: not close to some kind of deal. But we have 139 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 4: to look at all this stuff together. If and I 140 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,840 Speaker 4: agree with you, the top line numbers is an agreement 141 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 4: to agree to the last numbers, and that's going to 142 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 4: require that's going to require the House to then you've 143 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 4: got to actually write the bill that matches that number. 144 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 4: And let's be frank, the conservatives in the House that 145 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 4: are criticizing this again have never voted to fund the government, 146 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 4: So the fact that there's going to be something that 147 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:33,559 Speaker 4: appeases them, it's just ridiculous. It's you know, can speak 148 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 4: of Johnson, keep half of the get half the Republicans 149 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 4: to vote for it, and are Democrats willing to participate? 150 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 4: But you've got to be able to have a government 151 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 4: open in order to get this side deal to deal 152 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 4: with supplemental funding between Ukraine and the border. The border 153 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 4: is continuing to be a crisis. I'm always going to 154 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 4: be hopeful that something gets done because the communities along 155 00:07:55,880 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 4: the border have been suffering for for five years. You know, 156 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 4: we think about you know, most people only think, oh, 157 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 4: you know, when New York and Chicago and la started complaining, 158 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 4: that's when it really became a crisis. You know, it's 159 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 4: been a crisis. It's been a crisis since the last 160 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 4: year of Donald Trump's presidency. He's the one that began 161 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 4: this problem, and then it just became considerably worse under 162 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 4: President Byen. Last month, I think it was three hundred 163 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 4: and twenty thousand people were apprehend and that's the all 164 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 4: time high in the history of our government. So this 165 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 4: is a this is a real. 166 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 2: Seeing some staggering figures, that's for sure, And I wonder 167 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 2: if you think it's a good time then to impeach 168 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:41,559 Speaker 2: the Homeland Security Secretary. The first hearing will take place 169 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 2: in the House on Wednesday. Alejandro Majorcis, of course, is 170 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 2: seated at the negotiating table. We're told at least helping 171 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 2: to represent the administration. Is this the moment to pull 172 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 2: the plug on the secretary? 173 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 4: If I was president, by it, And let me be frank, 174 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 4: I'm not one to generally give him advice to that's 175 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 4: good for him. You know, if I'm Joe Biden, I 176 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 4: would fire Secretary Mayorkis when you look at some of 177 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 4: his bad pulling numbers, especially in a general election against 178 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:16,560 Speaker 4: general election voters. A significant amount of of the drag 179 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 4: on Joe Biden is his is his bungling of the 180 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 4: of the border crisis. And so this is you know, 181 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 4: there's the there's a lot of Democrats that are frustrated 182 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 4: with Secretary of Mariorchis and just look at the record. 183 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 4: This is the worst the border crisis has been in 184 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 4: our country's history. We've had over five million people come 185 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 4: into our country illegally under Secretary of mayorcus of the 186 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 4: data shows he's done a terrible job. And I am 187 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 4: of the the opinion that this is they have not 188 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 4: been actually implementing legislation appropriately. You do you know, we've 189 00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 4: made it very clear what asylum is supposed to be. 190 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 4: They're having an incredibly generous definition of asylum, which is 191 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 4: allowing these millions of people to come into the country, 192 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 4: and to me, that alone is a violation of Secretary 193 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 4: of may Orcus's duties. 194 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 2: Well, it's looking like he may well lose his job. 195 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 2: Will Hurd while you're with us, I have to get 196 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 2: your insights quickly on the Secretary of Defense. And I 197 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 2: ask you this as a former CIA officer, I'm guessing 198 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 2: this is not a major kitchen table story right now. 199 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 2: But he kind of went missing, having gone into Walter 200 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 2: Reed for an elective surgery before Christmas. He was readmitted 201 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 2: on New Year's Day, experiencing severe pain, and he is 202 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 2: still there now. Apparently there was a breakdown in communication. Congressman, 203 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 2: by that, I mean no one knew. 204 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:44,439 Speaker 3: He was there. 205 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 2: They had to call the Deputy Secretary on the beach 206 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 2: on vacation in Puerto Rico. This is something clearly that 207 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 2: could have been planned and advanced. How important is this 208 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 2: breach of protocol? 209 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 4: Well, I think it comes to a lack of trust. 210 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 4: And if you can't handle something this significant properly, how 211 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 4: are you going to handle something that's moving fast. You 212 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 4: know the fact that the Deputies Secretary had most of 213 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 4: the authorities at that time for because of some other agreement, 214 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 4: but the fact that Secretary Austin had not notified the 215 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:21,000 Speaker 4: president and the folks within the department, it makes no sense. 216 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 4: And that now we're days later, we're still don't have 217 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 4: the full story. This is a problem. I think everybody 218 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 4: wishes him and hopes that he's healthy and safe and 219 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 4: has a speedy recovery. But this is not how you 220 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 4: handle the fact that are one of the most important 221 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 4: people in our government has to go into the hospital. 222 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:41,560 Speaker 2: Will Heard, It's good to see you, former congressman, former 223 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:45,199 Speaker 2: Republican presidential candidate back with us on Bloomberg Radio. Come 224 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 2: back and see us again soon. In fact, we'd love 225 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 2: to talk once the voting does begin. I'd love to 226 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 2: hear from the panel on this quickly, the matter of 227 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:53,080 Speaker 2: the Secretary of Defense. We're going to have a lot 228 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:56,080 Speaker 2: of time for the border and shut down politics coming up, 229 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 2: but let's bring in Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis, Bloomberg 230 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 2: Politics contributors. It's great to see you guys. Happy New Year. 231 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 2: I missed you both. 232 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:02,959 Speaker 5: Rick. 233 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 2: There are some folks who are, at least on the 234 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 2: Republican side. I think the Defense secretary should be fired. 235 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 2: Should there be accountability here. 236 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely, I mean, honestly, somebody needs to be fired. 237 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 5: I mean, there's obviously a chain of commander exists, and 238 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 5: there we go. And I think that if you know, 239 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 5: the secretary was in communicato because of his health, it 240 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 5: falls on others within the department to make sure that 241 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 5: they're maintaining this level of transparency that's due a senior 242 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,080 Speaker 5: member of the cabinet like this. I mean, honestly, it's 243 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:37,679 Speaker 5: just outrageous. So yeah, I think a head should. 244 00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:39,719 Speaker 3: Roll, A head should roll. 245 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 2: Jeanie. The administration is speaking. John Kirby earlier today said 246 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 2: Lloyd Austin stays in the job. Their concern right now 247 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 2: is his health. Should we wait to learn more before 248 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 2: we judge what happened. 249 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think we should all be concerned about his health. 250 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 6: That we all can be. But the reality is is 251 00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 6: that this is about national security. And can you imagine 252 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 6: the CEO of any company disappearing for a week. You know, 253 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 6: there are twenty seven thousand or more people who work 254 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 6: at the Pentagon, and their argument is that the woman 255 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 6: who was supposed to inform the president was out sick. 256 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 6: Something is amiss here. It is a problem that he 257 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 6: is in line for the presidency. He has the nuclear codes. 258 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 6: The president needs to lead and he needs to deal 259 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 6: with this absolutely, the optics. The concern about his hospitalization 260 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,840 Speaker 6: is what's going on. We should all be concerned, But 261 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,560 Speaker 6: this is about national security while we're in an active 262 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 6: war zone across the world, and so I do think 263 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 6: the White House is going to have to address this. 264 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:44,319 Speaker 2: I mean, at least I called somebody when I was out. 265 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 3: For a week. Genie, we'll have a lot more. 266 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 2: With our panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano as we 267 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 2: pick their brains on a potential deal on the border 268 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 2: and whether we're going to shut down by the way, 269 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 2: a week away from Iowa a week from today, and 270 00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 2: Rick and Genie will be with us. We'll have more 271 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:01,559 Speaker 2: straight ahead on sound on This is Bloomberg. 272 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 273 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 274 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 275 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 276 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven. 277 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 2: Thirty, Big Screaming Headline Over the weekend, reporters called into 278 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 2: bureaus to write the story of the grand deal that 279 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 2: was put together here in Washington, d C. The House 280 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 2: and Senate leaders Speaker Johnson Senator Chuck Schumer, and an 281 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 2: agreement at last on top line spending levels, something that 282 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 2: we've apparently been waiting for, even though they're the same 283 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 2: levels we got back in June. I'm having a little 284 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 2: bit of trouble with this one. As we remember the 285 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 2: movie Gaslight from nineteen forty four was once Angels Street 286 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 2: on stage, remember this, the husband trying to drive his 287 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 2: wife insane. Things start to go missing, gas lights dim 288 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 2: without being touched. And as I read here on the terminal, 289 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 2: one point five nine trillion dollars the new top line 290 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 2: negotiated here in Washington, DC, a cap on discretionary spending. Interesting, 291 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 2: that's the same exact number that was in the debt 292 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 2: ceiling deal back in June, the one that helped to 293 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 2: get Kevin McCarthy fired. Yet here we are again talking 294 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 2: about this as if it's news. It includes recisions, and 295 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 2: this is what the Speaker says is new of unused 296 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 2: COVID funding and cuts to the irs. They add up 297 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 2: to about sixteen billion dollars, which is barely a rounding error. 298 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:43,840 Speaker 2: And so conservatives in the Freedom Caucus are not happy, 299 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 2: and it's very difficult to tell whether we just improved 300 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 2: our chances or not. This is happening at the same 301 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 2: time as negotiating over the border takes place in Washington. 302 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 2: As we reassemble the panel for their take, Brick Davis 303 00:15:56,400 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 2: and Genie Shanzeno are here Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie am 304 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 2: I going crazy here. One point five to nine trillion. 305 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 2: It's the same number we could have missed all that drama. 306 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 2: If we just go back to June, we'd have the 307 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 2: same deal we have now, right. 308 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 6: That's right, it's like deja vu all over again. And 309 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 6: you mentioned gas lighting, and I was thinking of another film, 310 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 6: But you know, the reality is is that this is 311 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 6: pretty much all that Johnson could get. And the real 312 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 6: question is where you ended Is he going to be 313 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:32,600 Speaker 6: able to keep his job in the aftermath. It really 314 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 6: almost doesn't matter what Chip Roy and the Conservatives say 315 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 6: on this. They're going to push him to the right 316 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 6: as much as possible, but the reality is he's going 317 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 6: to need Democrats to get this passed and you know, 318 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,920 Speaker 6: one question to keep in mind is are they going 319 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 6: to push him enough so that he tries to include 320 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 6: things involving abortion or LGBTQ rights which will really create 321 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 6: enough work and have him lose some needed Democrats. So 322 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 6: that's what we're talking about here. Otherwise, this is pretty 323 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:06,639 Speaker 6: much what McCarthy negotiated and what eventually he Brinnick Ghannon 324 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:07,880 Speaker 6: got him fired. 325 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 3: Wow. 326 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 2: Freedom Caucus calls it a total failure. 327 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 3: Rick. 328 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 2: I could go through all of the individuals here, from 329 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,440 Speaker 2: Chip Roy to Andy Biggs, but I think you get 330 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 2: the point. Is the speaker gaslighting us. How do we 331 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:25,680 Speaker 2: call this a new deal? 332 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's a. 333 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 8: Joke, is what it is. 334 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 5: I mean, he's his strategy has taken us full circle 335 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 5: to exactly as you said, right back to the very beginning. 336 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:39,440 Speaker 5: It sounds like a bad Sound of Music episode. And 337 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:43,160 Speaker 5: so like the bottom line is that now they found 338 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:46,400 Speaker 5: a new problem. You know, the same guy's Gats, Biggs, Rosendale, 339 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 5: all these guys who you know, threw out McCarthy as 340 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 5: speaker over the budget deal have now said now the 341 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:57,639 Speaker 5: budget deal is less problematic than the fact that we 342 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 5: need to have HR two embedded in the budget deal. 343 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:05,120 Speaker 5: The House's big border security plan. So you can keep 344 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 5: the number, but you got to have border security in 345 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 5: there too, And I just think they keep moving the goalpost. 346 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 5: It doesn't help the Speaker. I doubt if he's going 347 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,919 Speaker 5: to lose his job over this. But as Genie said, 348 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 5: there's not going to get anything done unless they have 349 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 5: Democratic votes. And if they have Democratic votes, none of 350 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 5: these people's voices matter. 351 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 2: So not only has nothing changed since before the holidays, 352 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,040 Speaker 2: but not since last June. Just a different guy holding 353 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 2: the gavel here. The border you mentioned Rick may well 354 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 2: be intertwined here. In fact, they're talking about potentially moving 355 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 2: all of this as one piece if a border deal 356 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 2: can be reached in the Senate. Now I realize the 357 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:44,880 Speaker 2: speaker's talking about negotiating directly with the White House now 358 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 2: because a Senate deal may not fly in the House. 359 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 2: This is the latest though from James Langford, the Senator, 360 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 2: the Republican Senator at the negotiating table. He was on 361 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:55,120 Speaker 2: Fox News Sunday. 362 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 9: Tex Hopefully this week to be able to get that out. 363 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:58,199 Speaker 9: Everybody will have time to be able to read and 364 00:18:58,240 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 9: go through it. No one's going to be jammed in 365 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 9: this problem. But it's a matter of trying to be 366 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 9: able to get this out. But to make law, we've 367 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,200 Speaker 9: got to have a Democrat Senate, a Democrat White House, 368 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 9: and a Republican House to be able to go through this. 369 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 9: So this agreement has to work. Everyone's counting on this 370 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,360 Speaker 9: actually working. But it's going to have to be agreement 371 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 9: that a White House that is a Democrat White House 372 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 9: and a Democrat Senate can also line up with a 373 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,199 Speaker 9: Republican House. And we're working the thread that needle for 374 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 9: things that actually work, all. 375 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,120 Speaker 2: Right, Genie, He says text could emerge by the end 376 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 2: of this week. That would mean they're pretty darn closed. 377 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,199 Speaker 2: It would also be a day or two after the 378 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 2: first impeachment hearing for Alejandro majorcis, how's this all going 379 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 2: to come together since he's involved in these negotiating sessions. 380 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's right, And you asked Representative Hurt the right 381 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 6: question about is this really the time to impeach the 382 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:49,400 Speaker 6: Secretary of Homeland Security? Not to mention, you know, I'm 383 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:52,919 Speaker 6: trying to just figure that when Johnson goes over to 384 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,680 Speaker 6: the White House to negotiate with the President, this will 385 00:19:55,680 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 6: be just before or after they vote on mayorcis, they 386 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 6: decide to hold his son in contempt, and oh, by 387 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,400 Speaker 6: the way, they decide potentially on impeaching him, because those 388 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 6: are the kind of things that the Conservatives are going 389 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:12,439 Speaker 6: to push Johnson to do to save his job. You 390 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 6: couple that with the calendar the coming twenty four election 391 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 6: and the votes there, and the fact that Donald Trump 392 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,640 Speaker 6: has been out on the stump making big hay out 393 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 6: of the issue of immigration. So I go back to 394 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 6: the reality that I cannot see a world in which 395 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 6: Republicans allow Joe Biden and the Democrats to get a 396 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 6: deal on immigration. As much as Langford is negotiating in 397 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 6: good faith, I don't see how they allow this to happen. 398 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,400 Speaker 6: And twenty four is going to be looming over all 399 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 6: of this. 400 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 2: What do you think about that, Rick, Because we know 401 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 2: the border is not playing well for Joe Biden. Now, 402 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:52,880 Speaker 2: and this new CBS News you Gov poll underscores that 403 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 2: sixty eight percent disapprove of the President's handling of the border. 404 00:20:56,840 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 2: Sixty three percent think you should be tougher on the border. 405 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 2: That's the backdrop for this conversation. Donald Trump and well, 406 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 2: I guess Mike Johnson both know that this would probably 407 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:08,360 Speaker 2: help Joe Biden if they got a deal. 408 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 3: Yeah. 409 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,440 Speaker 5: I think that the reality is Republicans have to at 410 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 5: some point do something proactive on the border. They can't 411 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,320 Speaker 5: just throw up poison pill legislation that doesn't go anywhere. 412 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:26,719 Speaker 5: Republican constituents, voters care about this, and they both care 413 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,360 Speaker 5: about different things. I mean, we've got to remember that 414 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 5: the voters for the Democrats, voters for Biden, they want 415 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:38,640 Speaker 5: a more efficient process. They want the border more secure, 416 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 5: and Republicans want more border security and then a more 417 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 5: efficient process. So they have a totally different point of 418 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,639 Speaker 5: view on what is success. Both are under some level 419 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:55,359 Speaker 5: of pressure to make progress. As as you know, Congressman 420 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 5: former Congressman Will Hurd said, you can't have a year 421 00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 5: where you have, you know, hundreds of thousands a month 422 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 5: of hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants crossing the border 423 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 5: and not take a hit. If you're a Republican or 424 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 5: a Democrat. 425 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,840 Speaker 2: You think we're going to shut down, I'll ask you both, Rick, 426 00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 2: and we're looking at two different dates. I'll remind everybody. 427 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 2: One is late this month. The second is early February. 428 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 2: There are only what eight legislative days to figure this out. 429 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 3: How's this going to happen? 430 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,680 Speaker 5: You know, Look, you've got a half a dozen approached bills. 431 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:27,199 Speaker 5: You ought to be able to get those done on 432 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:33,359 Speaker 5: the House side in the first series of administration budget 433 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 5: deals and on suspension you could pass at with Democrats 434 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 5: and Republicans together, no brainer. Now as long as there 435 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 5: are no poison pills in those bills. So right now, 436 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,199 Speaker 5: if the Republicans want to sabotage the system, they put 437 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,639 Speaker 5: poison pills in there and have to force the Democrats 438 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:51,919 Speaker 5: in the Senate to rewrite everything. 439 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:57,160 Speaker 2: That is important. Genie, the Speaker could still go there 440 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 2: if he wanted to. 441 00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 3: Do you think we're heading for a shutdown? 442 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 6: I hope not. I don't think so. It's not in 443 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 6: anybody's interest to shut down. Rick just mentioned the poison 444 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 6: pills are the big thing to watch, especially on abortion 445 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 6: in LGBTQ rights. That would be devastating to the bill. 446 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,920 Speaker 6: And by the way, the calendar is tough, as you mentioned, 447 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 6: eight days to that first deadline. That's tough in normal circumstances. 448 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 3: But how about it. 449 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 2: Little New Year's optimism from Rick Davis Genie Shanzano, both 450 00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 2: agreeing there will be no shutdown, and of course we're 451 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 2: going to be thinking about this conversation when we walk 452 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:32,679 Speaker 2: up to those dates, realizing it'll be kind of a 453 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 2: partial shutdown and then a whole shutdown in February, and 454 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,400 Speaker 2: all this is going to coincide with what's happening in Iowa. 455 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 2: Can you imagine after Donald Trump spends this week in 456 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 2: courtrooms across the country, actual voting, actual caucusing will take 457 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 2: place next Monday. 458 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 459 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 460 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 461 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast. 462 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 2: Welcome to our two Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew 463 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,119 Speaker 2: in Washington, joined by Kaylee Lines. 464 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 3: It's good to see you, Kayley. 465 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 2: It sounds weird, although Will Hurd told me it was 466 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 2: not too late to be saying Happy New Year. So 467 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,399 Speaker 2: I'm gonna say happy New Year to you because I 468 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 2: haven't released well, I haven't. 469 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 3: Seen you first. 470 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:19,360 Speaker 10: That's fair, Happy New Year, Joe. 471 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,159 Speaker 2: But I am struggling with that a little bit. You know, 472 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 2: you go to the gas pump here at the store. 473 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:24,879 Speaker 3: Do you do the have or are we be I 474 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:25,480 Speaker 3: think you have. 475 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,040 Speaker 10: One week, so we're beyond that, and I think we're beyond. 476 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 10: But I appreciate the well wishes for my year. It's 477 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 10: going to be a doozy Joe. You and I both 478 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:33,160 Speaker 10: know it. 479 00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:35,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, we're about to go through a lot, and you 480 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 2: know it. Really we start spinning the plates now. Senate's 481 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:43,920 Speaker 2: getting back to town today, house tomorrow. People called in 482 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,639 Speaker 2: to work over the weekend because there's a deal on 483 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:48,879 Speaker 2: top line spending levels. And I find this really funny. 484 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,520 Speaker 2: I did a whole thing last hour on gas lighting 485 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,360 Speaker 2: and the movie gas Light in nineteen forty four. 486 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 3: That feels like as. 487 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,440 Speaker 2: The gas lights were dimming without anyone touching them, and 488 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,399 Speaker 2: this woman was driven crazy by her husband who was 489 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 2: moving things in the night. 490 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 3: That's what's going on here. Now. 491 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,439 Speaker 2: I'm glad we have Jack Fitzpatrick because maybe he can 492 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,639 Speaker 2: pull me in off the ledge. But they agreed to 493 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 2: one point five to nine trillion dollars, I believe correct, 494 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 2: which is exactly the same thing they agreed on last 495 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 2: June when Kevin McCarthy was speaking right, same fiscal. 496 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:23,440 Speaker 10: Year, Yeah, same seven hundred and seventy three billion dollars 497 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 10: non defense discretionaryes. 498 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 4: Friending a side deal. 499 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:27,840 Speaker 10: Well there's that too. 500 00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:31,119 Speaker 2: Yes, they cutified the side deal, so it's exactly the 501 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:32,840 Speaker 2: same plan that we had last June. 502 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,359 Speaker 10: But Mike Johnson would tell you they got sixteen billion 503 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,880 Speaker 10: dollars in savings from those of the forward that irs 504 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,400 Speaker 10: funding cut of ten billion dollars, and then we're sending 505 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 10: the six billion in COVID relief money. 506 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 3: Yes, I don't think that's a real big difference. That's 507 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:49,399 Speaker 3: a rounding error, is what that is. 508 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:51,920 Speaker 2: But that's why we have Jack to help us exactly 509 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,720 Speaker 2: who held forth I understand like a hero and a 510 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,880 Speaker 2: captain in the chair last week. Great to see you, Jack, 511 00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:00,880 Speaker 2: I say, happy New Year. 512 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,000 Speaker 3: We're in it? Is it just me? 513 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,440 Speaker 2: Or are we playing games with the same numbers here? 514 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,880 Speaker 11: It is a reagreement more than anything else. 515 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:09,439 Speaker 1: I like that. 516 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 11: I mean, you said rother than before, and they've been 517 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,200 Speaker 11: arguing for months over things you could probably call a 518 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:20,720 Speaker 11: rounding error. The side deal is a little shy of 519 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 11: seventy billion dollars in extra spending. I mean, the government 520 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:27,920 Speaker 11: is going to spend. It's hard to even keep track 521 00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 11: what we're going into four or five to six trillion. 522 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 11: This is all the discretionary numbers is at one point 523 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,160 Speaker 11: five to nine trillion versus one point sixty five trillion. 524 00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 11: They've been arguing and risking shutdowns and slinging mud over 525 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,920 Speaker 11: a relatively small pot of money in the grand scheme 526 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,360 Speaker 11: of things. But that is what the argument has been 527 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 11: since June or so, and now they have re agreed 528 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,880 Speaker 11: to basically the same numbers more or less as they 529 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 11: struck in late May early June. 530 00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 10: Okay, so maybe we're calling this a win, even though 531 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 10: I'm not really sure it should be a win. But 532 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 10: the idea is just helps take a step at least 533 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:10,240 Speaker 10: toward averting a shutdown. The thing is, top line figures 534 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,240 Speaker 10: are one thing. Then you have to divvy that up, 535 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 10: turn that into legislative text, and get that past both 536 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 10: chambers before actually January nineteenth and funding runs out. So 537 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 10: how much of the hard work is still ahead When 538 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,199 Speaker 10: it was this hard to agree to the deal that 539 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 10: was already agreed with you in the first place. 540 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 11: This was probably the hardest question for them to answer, 541 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 11: and they answered it, and that's good, But there are 542 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 11: still very hard questions to answer. It's probably debatable really 543 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,399 Speaker 11: whether this was the hardest. They are still going to 544 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 11: have fights over policy riders. How much do you want 545 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,160 Speaker 11: to get into the tough policy measures, not just dollars 546 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 11: and how much you're going to spend. But the big 547 00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:50,640 Speaker 11: ones over the past year have been abortion access being 548 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:54,880 Speaker 11: legislated through some of these spending bills. The FBI. There 549 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 11: are conservatives who are hesitant to fund the FBI without 550 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:04,240 Speaker 11: policy right, there's resentment over the FBI visa v. Donald 551 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 11: Trump's legal troubles. There is not an agreement now on 552 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 11: how they are going to broadly approach policy riders. So 553 00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 11: any policy measure they could fight over, they can still 554 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,399 Speaker 11: fight over it. Also, as you mentioned, they agreed to 555 00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,199 Speaker 11: a defense and non defense number. They didn't divvy that 556 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,159 Speaker 11: up into the twelve appropriations bills. How do they divide 557 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,600 Speaker 11: that up for an allocation for each of those bills, 558 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,120 Speaker 11: which has an effect on what kind of programs get 559 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,200 Speaker 11: more money and less money. That's something that they still 560 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:31,840 Speaker 11: have to do, and it's not a lot of time 561 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,480 Speaker 11: until January nineteenth, so there are still plenty of hurdles 562 00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 11: for them. 563 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 3: Man, but possible. You're not covering a shutdown this time. 564 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 11: It's very good news. Yesterday's news was a big broad. 565 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:44,280 Speaker 3: Well, this is encouraging, Kaylee. 566 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:48,640 Speaker 2: I'm a naysayer. I'm accusing people of gaslighting. Jack, who 567 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:50,280 Speaker 2: does this for a living, is encouraged. 568 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 10: Okay, Well take Jack's word for it. 569 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 2: Absolutely great to see it. Jack Fitzpatrick, don't be a stranger. 570 00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:58,640 Speaker 2: I know you won't be. I'm wondering what Nick has 571 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 2: to think and has to say about all of this, 572 00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,800 Speaker 2: because we have eight legislative days. I haven't even brought 573 00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 2: up the boarder yet. By the way, eight legislative days. 574 00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,320 Speaker 2: Remembering though, we have two dates, so we do a 575 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:11,480 Speaker 2: little shutdown for a couple of days after the first 576 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,800 Speaker 2: one and get it done potentially by February second. Mick mulvaney, 577 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,360 Speaker 2: of course, co founder of the Freedom Caucus and a 578 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,520 Speaker 2: former acting Chief of Staff in the White House, former 579 00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 2: budget director. I'm just gonna say happy New Year, because 580 00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 2: I started all of this and I'm just coming back today. Mick, 581 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:30,320 Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Does this sound like a. 582 00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:31,600 Speaker 3: Shutdown that can be averted? 583 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:32,160 Speaker 8: Sure? 584 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:35,480 Speaker 7: Does it sound like shutdown has been averted? 585 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 8: No, I'm not really sure. I was sitting here, I 586 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:43,640 Speaker 8: was in Louisiana yesterday for the swearing in of Jeff Landry, 587 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:47,240 Speaker 8: Republican governor, who's also a Tea Party member, class of 588 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 8: twenty ten. So sort of old home week. But a 589 00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:51,920 Speaker 8: couple of those folks are still in Congress, and they 590 00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 8: were all scratching their head as to where Mike Johnson 591 00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 8: got the one point sixty six trillion dollar deal. 592 00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 7: Keep it with mind. Mike Johnson was also there yesterday 593 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:01,160 Speaker 7: because he's from. 594 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:04,880 Speaker 8: Louisiana as well, so I'm not sure. I'm looking at 595 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,400 Speaker 8: Chip Roy's page here today and he says, Look, it 596 00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 8: all depends on the policy deals we can get as 597 00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 8: part of this spending deal. I cannot imagine what policy 598 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:14,240 Speaker 8: deals they are going to get. It seems to me, 599 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,120 Speaker 8: if you're going to avoid a shutdown, it's going to 600 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,680 Speaker 8: follow the same exact model that it has for the 601 00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:22,000 Speaker 8: last decade, which is all the Democrats will vote for it, 602 00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 8: a couple of Republicans will vote for it, the Republicans 603 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 8: will start. 604 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 7: An internal blood bath over it. 605 00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,760 Speaker 8: So if that's if that's what you if that's what 606 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:31,680 Speaker 8: a shutdown means, I think that's what you've got. 607 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,840 Speaker 10: Okay, So you are envisioning an internal bloodbath here, Mick. 608 00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 10: Not exactly a pretty picture you're painting, But for Mike 609 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:44,840 Speaker 10: Johnson specifically knowing the fate of his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, 610 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,440 Speaker 10: who passed a deal with Democratic support and lost the 611 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,600 Speaker 10: gavel as a result, do you really think he's staring 612 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:53,680 Speaker 10: down that same threat? Can House Conservative stomach another speaker fight? 613 00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,400 Speaker 8: You know, if they were rationally answer that question will 614 00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,240 Speaker 8: be no. But I don't think Matt Gates is a 615 00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:02,719 Speaker 8: rational act. And all of this, I'm not sure how 616 00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,440 Speaker 8: if they really made the case that they got rid 617 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:11,400 Speaker 8: of McCarthy because of policy shortcomings, that he was incapable 618 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,720 Speaker 8: of cutting a good deal with Democrats with the White House, 619 00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,640 Speaker 8: and then it wasn't about something personal between Matt and McCarthy. 620 00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:19,959 Speaker 7: You know, Matt always said it was about policy. 621 00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 8: If it really was about policy, it strikes me that 622 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,000 Speaker 8: the same policy they got McCarthy fired just got it 623 00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:29,640 Speaker 8: agreed to again. So I'm not really sure what the 624 00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,560 Speaker 8: argument is not to do anything different than what they 625 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:33,200 Speaker 8: did to Kevin. 626 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:36,320 Speaker 3: Well, that's interesting. 627 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 2: The Freedom Caucus calls it a total fail, suggesting that 628 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 2: it's clear that Mike Johnson Mick will need Democrats to 629 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 2: pass this. So now we really have created the same 630 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:52,640 Speaker 2: exact scenario in which Kevin McCarthy got fired. But that 631 00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:55,720 Speaker 2: was before we went through Stevescalise and Tom Emmer and 632 00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:57,960 Speaker 2: Jim Jordan. I don't mean to ask the same question 633 00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,280 Speaker 2: that Kayley just asked, But who else is there? 634 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:02,480 Speaker 7: There isn't anybody. 635 00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,080 Speaker 8: But of course that's not again, that's that's a rational 636 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 8: question to ask about this. If you're simply trying to 637 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 8: stop this from happening, which a couple of folks probably 638 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 8: would be interested in doing, then trying to get rid 639 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:15,760 Speaker 8: of this speaker throws a monkey wrench. 640 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 7: Into the whole thing. 641 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,000 Speaker 8: The question the conservatives are gonna be asking is how 642 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,000 Speaker 8: was this different. Mike Johnson has got to be able 643 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 8: to go to them with something and say, look, here's 644 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,440 Speaker 8: why you should keep me. I've just cut a deal 645 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,000 Speaker 8: that does X, Y and Z, and that is better 646 00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:35,360 Speaker 8: than the deal you would have gotten under Kevin McCarthy, 647 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:37,959 Speaker 8: and that's why I should stay. I don't know what 648 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,200 Speaker 8: that deal is yet, because the number is bigger. I mean, 649 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 8: the number is actually bigger than they agreed to. I 650 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,040 Speaker 8: think it one five nine, and now it's one six 651 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,160 Speaker 8: six of course, that side deal I thought was supposed 652 00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,440 Speaker 8: to be just a handstake and a secret It wasn't 653 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,960 Speaker 8: anything that the House voted on. So technically, I guess 654 00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 8: you could make the case that Mike Johnson is spending 655 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,480 Speaker 8: more not the same, if you want to say that 656 00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 8: the side agreement technically wasn't agreement because the McCarthy and 657 00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,080 Speaker 8: Schumer don't have the ability to cut those types of deals. 658 00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,640 Speaker 8: So it's really ugly. I hear what everybody's saying. It 659 00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,400 Speaker 8: sounds like it's certainly a move in the right direction 660 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,160 Speaker 8: towards the abarding a shutdown. I'm not sure it's I'm 661 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,720 Speaker 8: not sure it's anywhere near the end of the discussion. 662 00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,360 Speaker 10: Well, and Mick, doesn't it all hinge on the border anyway? 663 00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 10: When you have members of the Republican Conference saying HR 664 00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:25,600 Speaker 10: two or bust, no security, no funding, shut down, the border, 665 00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:29,160 Speaker 10: shut down the government, it seems that everything is about 666 00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 10: the border here. 667 00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:31,840 Speaker 7: It could be. 668 00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:33,680 Speaker 8: Now you could also make the argument, I think you 669 00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 8: could make it plausibly that well, they always want to 670 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,160 Speaker 8: talk about the border. They sort of are some other 671 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,959 Speaker 8: Republicans now they sort of have at least tacitly if 672 00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:46,320 Speaker 8: nothing else given into this concept of mirroring the border 673 00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 8: discussions up with funding for Ukraine, Israel, to a lesser extent, Taiwan. 674 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 7: Right that. 675 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:56,479 Speaker 8: Those four pieces seem to be stuck together. Yes, they 676 00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 8: would love to have a second bite at the apple. 677 00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,280 Speaker 8: I just don't know how they do it. If you say, well, 678 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,240 Speaker 8: we have to have HR two in order to pass 679 00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:05,800 Speaker 8: anything out of the House, then nothing will pass out 680 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:07,800 Speaker 8: of House because the Senate will never pass HR two. 681 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,359 Speaker 8: So I hear what you're saying, But I think that 682 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:14,960 Speaker 8: maybe the spending deal will be isolated from at least 683 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,680 Speaker 8: the discussion a by HR two because that has sort 684 00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:19,760 Speaker 8: of been married now to Ukraine and Israel. 685 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,480 Speaker 2: To what extent is Donald Trump helping to direct the 686 00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,320 Speaker 2: conversation here, Mick. Last time we spoke, it was shortly 687 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 2: after we learned that Mike Johnson was in regular contact 688 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,399 Speaker 2: with him. We heard him talk about the boarder quite 689 00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,480 Speaker 2: a bit over the weekend in Iowa. Do we at 690 00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,759 Speaker 2: this point really think that he's going to endorse any 691 00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,239 Speaker 2: deal that might make Joe Biden or any Democrat look good. 692 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:43,120 Speaker 8: No, And I think that's one of the reasons you 693 00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,520 Speaker 8: hear him. I haven't seen anything out of him today 694 00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:47,520 Speaker 8: about the spending deal. I think he's waiting to see 695 00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:51,040 Speaker 8: how it's received. When it's received badly by a Conservatives, 696 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:52,640 Speaker 8: he's going to attack it. He might also wait to 697 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,440 Speaker 8: see what Nikki Haley and Ron Desantus are saying about it, 698 00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,200 Speaker 8: but I guess is they'll attack it as well. 699 00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 7: So no, I don't think Trump is interested. That's that's 700 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:01,840 Speaker 7: not unusual in politics. Right. 701 00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,480 Speaker 8: There's a couple House members over the weekend who said 702 00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,520 Speaker 8: they weren't interested in doing a board deal now because 703 00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:08,719 Speaker 8: it would give Biden the victory too close to the 704 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:09,640 Speaker 8: to the election. 705 00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 7: That that's not unusual. 706 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,759 Speaker 8: I dealt with the same thing with Democrats when I 707 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 8: was in the White House in twenty nineteen, in early 708 00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:17,800 Speaker 8: twenty twenty. They didn't want to give Trump and he wins, 709 00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,400 Speaker 8: you know, that close to election. So that's that's certainly 710 00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,479 Speaker 8: the politics as usual. But no, I don't think Donald 711 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,120 Speaker 8: Trump is interested in brokering a deal here. You know, 712 00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,600 Speaker 8: when he was running for office the first time, he was, 713 00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:31,520 Speaker 8: you know, against all the spending deals. When he was 714 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:33,319 Speaker 8: in office, he was for all the spending deals. When 715 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,080 Speaker 8: he was out of office, he was against the spending deals. 716 00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,440 Speaker 7: Again, so I think you can continue to see that trend. 717 00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:42,160 Speaker 10: Well, Mick, you just mentioned there Nicki Haley and Ron DeSantis. 718 00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,439 Speaker 10: Keeping in mind that you're speaking with us exactly one 719 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 10: week out from the Iowa caucuses. Do either of them 720 00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:48,200 Speaker 10: stand a real chance? 721 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,080 Speaker 8: If there was, if I was looking for an upset Kaylee, 722 00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:56,480 Speaker 8: it would be in DeSantis. 723 00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:58,960 Speaker 7: I don't think any of them. I don't think Nicky 724 00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:00,880 Speaker 7: Oron has a chance to beat Trump. 725 00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:05,280 Speaker 8: But if you look to folks who overperform versus underperform, 726 00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:08,800 Speaker 8: keep in mind Donald Trump underperformed badly in two thousand 727 00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:11,479 Speaker 8: and sixteen, I think it was twelve points or something 728 00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:15,600 Speaker 8: like that, and Ted Cruz overperformed by about the same amount, 729 00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:19,360 Speaker 8: in large part because Cruz understood how caucuses were different 730 00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,320 Speaker 8: than primaries, and Trump, at that time, a first time candidate, 731 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,200 Speaker 8: really didn't. Now Trump is working really, really hard to 732 00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:27,879 Speaker 8: make sure that mistake doesn't happen again in twenty twenty four. 733 00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:32,359 Speaker 8: But that being said, a lot of Cruz's team has 734 00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:35,200 Speaker 8: signed on with DeSantis. So if there's a chance for 735 00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:38,080 Speaker 8: anybody to overperform next Monday, I'll be looking for Ron 736 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,200 Speaker 8: to overperform. If he doesn't, and he finishes third, then 737 00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:43,640 Speaker 8: I think he's out of the race. I think you 738 00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:45,920 Speaker 8: have to finish second in Iowa to move on to 739 00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:48,960 Speaker 8: Super Tuesday. It looks like he's not going to finish 740 00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,000 Speaker 8: second in New Hampshire. I may excuse me. He may 741 00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:54,920 Speaker 8: finish fourth in New Hampshire or fifth. So but I 742 00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:58,040 Speaker 8: will watch to see if DeSantis overperforms. I don't think 743 00:36:58,040 --> 00:36:59,680 Speaker 8: he's got a chance to beat Trump, but he may 744 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:01,880 Speaker 8: do better beter than the polling is showing. 745 00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:03,080 Speaker 3: Well. 746 00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,200 Speaker 2: Just in our last minute here, Mick, I wonder your 747 00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,680 Speaker 2: thoughts on your home state South Carolina. Emerson has Trump 748 00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:12,680 Speaker 2: at fifty four, Hayley at twenty five. If she can't 749 00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,600 Speaker 2: outperform a number like that in her home state, is 750 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:15,960 Speaker 2: it over? 751 00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:18,960 Speaker 8: Oh, Joe, I've been waiting for somebody asking that question. 752 00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 8: Everybody alays wants to talk about Iowa in New Hampshire 753 00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:25,600 Speaker 8: and everyone and then folks realize that South Carolina comes next, 754 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:27,920 Speaker 8: and the dirty little secret down here is that, Yeah. 755 00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:28,919 Speaker 7: Trump is going to crush her. 756 00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:31,839 Speaker 8: She's done really really well the last couple of months, 757 00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,000 Speaker 8: and I do think she's got a chance to pull 758 00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,120 Speaker 8: within maybe single digits in New Hampshire. 759 00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,440 Speaker 7: She's done. Had a nice effort there, But South Carolina's 760 00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,000 Speaker 7: Trump state. South Carolina is Trump country. 761 00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:42,640 Speaker 3: One percent. 762 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:43,719 Speaker 7: Trump is winning the state. 763 00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:46,440 Speaker 2: I guess I shouldn't be surprised to hear that, but 764 00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,240 Speaker 2: it's always news when we hear it from Mick maulvaney. 765 00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:49,920 Speaker 2: It's good to see him, Mac. Thank you for the insights. 766 00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,319 Speaker 2: As always, Mick mulvaney on sound On. We do this 767 00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:56,080 Speaker 2: conversation each Monday, myself and Kayley with Mick, and we'll 768 00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,080 Speaker 2: do it again when we head to Iowa. This is Bloomberg. 769 00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,520 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast. Make sure 770 00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,400 Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and 771 00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:09,040 Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts. And you can find 772 00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:12,160 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm 773 00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:16,400 Speaker 2: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com