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Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan,

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Speaker 1: warmly joined by Andrew Erickson. We are talking super Bowl predictions.

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Speaker 1: We're the only show out there that is talking about

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Speaker 1: the super Bowl this week, so I'm glad you're with

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Speaker 1: us here to here what we're talking about. Of course

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Speaker 1: that's a lie. Ever, it's all anybody's talking about, and

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Speaker 1: we are joining the big wave of this content. Erickson,

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Speaker 1: we just saw each other in person, which is a

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Speaker 1: rare opportunity for us here working for a remote company.

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Speaker 1: But we were into our owns together last week. How

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Speaker 1: are you recovering?

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Speaker 2: Feeling good? This is fingers crossed. One of the few

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Speaker 2: times that I've traveled in seemingly come back okay without

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Speaker 2: any type of sickness, which usually happens. But as I

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Speaker 2: was telling people before at our team meeting and our

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Speaker 2: team meetup, I just make sure I prep my body.

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Speaker 2: I start drinking the airbornes, I do the emergencies like

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Speaker 2: a couple of days before I got to travel, then

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Speaker 2: throughout the entire travels, and then after I travel and

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Speaker 2: come back, and that seems to be working. Maybe it's

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Speaker 2: all in my mind that I'm just spending money on

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Speaker 2: useless supplements and Bidenman's are basically just going in and

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Speaker 2: out of my body. But so far it's working for me. Worm.

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Speaker 2: I think that prioritizing sleep as well a little bit

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Speaker 2: here on the trips, even if it makes me a

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Speaker 2: bit of a weenie when I have to, you know,

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Speaker 2: go to my hotel bed a little bit earlyer than

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Speaker 2: everybody else. You know, that's okay because I usually feel

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Speaker 2: pretty much better than everybody else the next day.

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Speaker 1: I definitely had a bit of the I don't know

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Speaker 1: if they do this in the city, but the New

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Speaker 1: Orleans flew some of those mornings to.

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Speaker 2: Flu.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, that's what happens in your hotel is

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Speaker 1: on Bourbon Street. I think the earliest I went to

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Speaker 1: bed was two am. That was my responsible night. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's so rare that we all get to hang out

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Speaker 1: together that I don't want to, you know, miss any

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Speaker 1: of it. I don't want to go to bed early.

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Speaker 1: So we had some fun in New Orleans. My voice

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Speaker 1: is still recovering days later, but that's that's a good thing.

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Speaker 1: It's recovering from having too much fun. Let's have into

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Speaker 1: these Super Bowl predictions here, Ericson, we both went about

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Speaker 1: three and three in the conference championship round. I included

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Speaker 1: our props in that record just to kind of get

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Speaker 1: more in there, but we both went three and three.

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Speaker 1: We were very very strong on the Patriots Broncos game.

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Speaker 1: We were weaker. I mean we said it too going

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Speaker 1: into that episode, right, we felt really good about our

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Speaker 1: bets for Pats Broncos that proved to be correct. We

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Speaker 1: were a lot more of like a coin toss, like

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Speaker 1: just we got to pick something on Seattle against La

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Speaker 1: and that one, you know, it was the better game

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Speaker 1: and was the one that we got wrong, but we

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Speaker 1: were close on those So, like I said, ultimately a

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Speaker 1: five hundred week, we have Seahawks versus Patriots, your New

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Speaker 1: England Patriots are in the Super Bowl. Ericson, it is

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Speaker 1: Seahawks minus four and a half and the over under

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Speaker 1: is settled at forty five and a half before we

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Speaker 1: jump into our actual predictions. Just as a fan, how

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Speaker 1: are you feeling about this game?

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Speaker 2: I mean really excited. I again, Patriots are underdogs. I

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Speaker 2: kind of like that from the perspective a Patriots fan

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Speaker 2: because so many of these Super Bowls we've been to.

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Speaker 2: It's Belichick. It's Brady. It doesn't like you kind of

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Speaker 2: just throw everything out the window, because all these guys

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Speaker 2: do in this spot is win for the most part. Again,

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Speaker 2: they didn't win every single super Bowl, but they were

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Speaker 2: in every single Super Bowl till the end. They had

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Speaker 2: a chance to win all the Super Bowls. They also

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Speaker 2: have a chance to lose, although the Super Bowls too,

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Speaker 2: So this is a little bit of you know, uncharted

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Speaker 2: waters with Mike Rabel and Drake May and a lot

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Speaker 2: of new players that are playing in the Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: for the very first time. Although the one staple being

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Speaker 2: Josh McDaniels. You know, he was part of a lot

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Speaker 2: of those Super Bowls, playing an integral role, especially as

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Speaker 2: the offensive play caller in five of those Super Bowls

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Speaker 2: for the Domingo Patriots. Some wins and some losses. But

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Speaker 2: I'm really excited. Sunday can't come early enough. We're doing

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Speaker 2: the live stream myself, Matt Perrault and Pat fitz Morris

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Speaker 2: on the Betting Pro shows. So we're gonna be breaking

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Speaker 2: things down at four o'clock Eastern time, two and a

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Speaker 2: half hours before kickoff. Gonna have a lot of bunch

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Speaker 2: of food watching it with the parents in law, the wife.

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Speaker 1: I was gonna ask what you're doing for the watch

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Speaker 1: party stuff? Are you the type who when your team

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Speaker 1: is in the game, you can't be around a ton

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Speaker 1: of other people.

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Speaker 2: I like the the amount of people I'm watching it

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Speaker 2: with because I like to be honey, it's usually just

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Speaker 2: like a small collective of friends that's not gonna be

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Speaker 2: like a massive if again, if I have no interest,

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Speaker 2: like it's just uh, you know this team here in

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Speaker 2: this team year, I'd rather go to a big super

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Speaker 2: Bowl party because then it's just more about having fun.

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Speaker 2: But this is where you know I'm gonna be a

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Speaker 2: white knuckle in this game here, Like it's again the

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Speaker 2: way that I'm expecting to play out. I think that

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Speaker 2: it's going to be end up being a close game,

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Speaker 2: but no, I'm super excited. Again. Anyone I saw with

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Speaker 2: a Patriots shirt, sweatshirt, hat at the airport on Bourbon

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Speaker 2: Street didn't matter where I was with the Florida afterward.

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Speaker 2: For a day, I was like, go pat and it's

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Speaker 2: just like it's just really good to be like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: we're all into this, let's go see what happens.

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Speaker 1: Do you do you feel? And I promise it's not

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Speaker 1: that very it's not a very long show, so we

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Speaker 1: have plenty of time to get to the predictions. So

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Speaker 1: if people want to skip past this, they can, But

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Speaker 1: I just like picking your brain as an actual fan

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Speaker 1: of the team. Do you feel like you there's almost

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Speaker 1: like less pressure. There's always pressure when you're in the

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Speaker 1: super Bowl, right, like there's no guarantee you get back,

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Speaker 1: but you're the underdog. This was a season where not

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Speaker 1: that the Patriots are fraudulent, but like they played a

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Speaker 1: really easy schedule, Like very much felt like this was

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Speaker 1: a season where it's like that year worthy year too early,

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Speaker 1: Like you expect to have this long runway with Rabel

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Speaker 1: and Drake may As this like super Bowl contending combo

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Speaker 1: for a decade, Like really, there's no reason that shouldn't

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Speaker 1: be the case for the next decade. So the fact

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Speaker 1: that you're kind of a year too early, this is

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Speaker 1: probably not going to be the best team of the

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Speaker 1: Drake may Vrabel era like you will have better opportunities

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Speaker 1: and like the fact that you have this long runway, like,

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Speaker 1: does that to you make it a little less pressure?

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Speaker 1: You said you're gonna be white knuckling the game. Is

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Speaker 1: it almost more like kind of gravy, and like if

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Speaker 1: you win, like what, like, you're not gonna apologize for anything,

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Speaker 1: but if you don't, like, yeah, we're gonna be back

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Speaker 1: as a contender next year and this wasn't the year anyway.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say so, I think that from a

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Speaker 2: grand scheme of thing, yes, is definitely gravy. But when

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Speaker 2: you're actually watching the game, Oh, Patriots are fourty to nothing.

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Speaker 2: Of course, now it's like, no, we are expecting to

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Speaker 2: win this game. Although like the preseason or the before

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Speaker 2: the game starts, the pages under rocks. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: like that. I feel like they don't have as much

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Speaker 2: pressure on them. But again, to the point of the Seahawks,

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Speaker 2: I mean, they weren't really viewed as supposed to be

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Speaker 2: here either. So it's just been a really weird year

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Speaker 2: in terms of the contenders. I mean, both of these

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Speaker 2: teams I believe were listed longer than sixty one odds

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Speaker 2: to win the Supers.

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Speaker 1: That's yes, that is correct, but like sixty to one

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Speaker 1: was the shortest of the two, Like that's which is crazy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so this is really a rare occurrence of teams

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Speaker 2: that really nobody thought would get to the Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: and those that have Seahawks pageots Exacta's super Bowls Like,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I just got to tip my hand to you,

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Speaker 2: like that's probably would not have been on my card.

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Speaker 1: So I've really liked the Seahawks over was one of

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Speaker 1: my favorite bets.

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Speaker 2: Going as well. Yeah, to your point, I like both.

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Speaker 1: I like both these teams overs. I liked the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: to make the playoffs and contend for the division. I

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Speaker 1: liked the Patriots too, like as a good bet to

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Speaker 1: make the playoffs just because of the schedule. I did

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Speaker 1: not view them as a super Bowl contender. The Seahawks

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Speaker 1: I liked better, but also did not view them as

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Speaker 1: a super Bowl contender. But I did view them as

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Speaker 1: a legitimate like division contender playoff like. I did really

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Speaker 1: like these teams relative to their odds. I did not

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Speaker 1: like them to make the super Bowl. All right, we

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Speaker 1: could jump into this here. I do think by the

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Speaker 1: way you talked about, like the Patriots jump out to

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Speaker 1: a lead, how you'll be feeling. I think whichever team,

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Speaker 1: if a team jumps out to a double digit lead

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Speaker 1: in this game, they're holding on to it. I don't

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Speaker 1: think there's going to be like a crazy comeback in

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Speaker 1: this game, I think the first half is going to

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Speaker 1: really matter because I think I think both these teams

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Speaker 1: are going to be a lot more comfortable if they

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Speaker 1: have a lead in the second half, even if it's

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Speaker 1: a small one. So I think that's I'm going to

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Speaker 1: keep in mind there. We'll start with the against the

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Speaker 1: spread prediction here. It's kind of the pattern we've been

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Speaker 1: doing on the show throughout the playoffs here. So again,

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Speaker 1: like I said, at Seahawks minus four and a half,

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Speaker 1: I'll let you go first, what is your side on

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Speaker 1: that one?

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Speaker 2: I'm taking the Patriots with the points at plus four

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Speaker 2: and a half, and ultimately I think that they're going

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Speaker 2: to win this game. That's the best bet that I

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Speaker 2: would have for this game in terms of picking a side,

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Speaker 2: I think that there's a lot of value on the

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Speaker 2: Patriots just to win outright. So although we're just picking

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Speaker 2: against the spread here, I like the Patriots with the points.

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Speaker 2: Underdogs have been really good in Super Bowls. Last five

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Speaker 2: Super Bowls, the underregs have covered straight up. Now, super

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Speaker 2: Bowl trends are sometimes hard to hold too much weight

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Speaker 2: because so many of those Super Bowls as well. Which

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Speaker 2: side was Patrick Mahomes. Was he the underdog or was

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Speaker 2: he the favorite? And so some of the Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: trends can be a little bit noisy because it's always

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Speaker 2: been Patriots teams or it has always been Chiefs teams.

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Speaker 2: But I just like, and I think I've talked about

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Speaker 2: this on our prediction show before the Championship Games, worm

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Speaker 2: I liked the matchup against Seattle more than the one

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Speaker 2: against the Los Angeles Rams. Like, that's what I wanted

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Speaker 2: the Patriots to draw specifically, because I think that schematically

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Speaker 2: they match up much better against the Seahawks than the Rams.

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Speaker 2: I think what you look at them matchup defensively with

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Speaker 2: what the Seahawks can do on offense. Okay, you have

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Speaker 2: an elite run defense. Both of these defenses have elite

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Speaker 2: run defenses. So if they can shut down Ken Walker

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Speaker 2: with Milton Lynn's, Christian Barrymore, Robert Splaine, those guys in

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Speaker 2: the middle, then that makes the Seahawks a little bit

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Speaker 2: one more one dimensional. That's not necessarily a bad bet

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Speaker 2: when Jacksonith Djigba is the one dimensional piece to your

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Speaker 2: offense in the passing game. But the Patriots have cornerbacks

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Speaker 2: like Christian Gonzales who maybe not can completely stop it. Again,

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Speaker 2: JSN is gonna win Offensive Player of the Year most

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Speaker 2: likely for a reason because he's really freaking good, and

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Speaker 2: like Christian Zalez, I think is really good. But there

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Speaker 2: are times this year again think back to that Falcons game.

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Speaker 2: Drake London had like three touchdowns in that game, like

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Speaker 2: he had a monster performance. So I think that's going

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Speaker 2: to be overblown a tad bit where people are saying, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 2: Gonzalez is gonna complete shut down JSM Like, I'm like

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Speaker 2: holding too, like eighty yards receiving, right, that'll probably be

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Speaker 2: a win in the book of the Patriots. I think

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Speaker 2: they would take that, especially if they can keep him

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Speaker 2: out of the end zone. So I like that match

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Speaker 2: up there. And then in the interior pass rush again

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Speaker 2: going back to Barrylmore Milton Williams, that's where the Seahawks

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Speaker 2: offensive line is weakest, you know, up the middle, center,

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Speaker 2: offensive guards, and if you can pressure Donald up the middle,

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Speaker 2: I think that can create opportunities for him to make mistakes.

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Speaker 2: It makes him turnovers. Now on the seat on the

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Speaker 2: Patriots side, offensively, we just saw Matthew Stafford throw all

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Speaker 2: over this secondary, especially with the depot What are the

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Speaker 2: Patriots do all year long? Is just toss the deep

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Speaker 2: bat create explosive chunk plays. Seattle's fourteenth in EPA per

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Speaker 2: pass tempt allowed on passes over twenty plus air yards.

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Speaker 2: Again an elite defense up and down, But I would

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Speaker 2: say they are a little vulnerable against deep passes and

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Speaker 2: you can always bet on Drake made and make some

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Speaker 2: plays with his legs off script. So even if that

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Speaker 2: pass rush for Seattle gets behind the offensive line for

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Speaker 2: the Patriot, that's definitely one of their biggest weaknesses. Especially

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Speaker 2: the way that Will Campbell has played since coming back

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Speaker 2: from his injury, You're gonna expect that pass rush to

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Speaker 2: hit home. But if Drake May just makes some magical

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Speaker 2: plays with his legs, scrambles, escapes the rush, and is

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Speaker 2: able to move the ball and flick damage downfield, well

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Speaker 2: that's how you can see this offense creating plays and

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Speaker 2: scoring points here. So I just like to see a

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Speaker 2: couple paths where I can buy the side of how

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Speaker 2: the Patriots can win on offense, where they can win

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Speaker 2: on defense, and ultimately that leads me to them taking

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Speaker 2: them with the points because I just think that it's

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Speaker 2: too many. Again, the look ahead lines for this where

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Speaker 2: Seattle minus three and a half before the conference champions

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Speaker 2: get conference championship games even played out, and now it's

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Speaker 2: stuck at four and a half. So I don't think

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Speaker 2: we should really look at anything from the conference championships

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Speaker 2: to really change our minds significantly. We already saw Seattle

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Speaker 2: beat the Rams, and I mean the Denver game was

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Speaker 2: bad weather, there was no Bonnicks. It was kind of

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Speaker 2: more of what I expected to see as we bet

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Speaker 2: last week. We liked the under a lot in that game.

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Speaker 2: So that's my kind of long winded answer waking why

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Speaker 2: I like the Patriots here in this spot so interested

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Speaker 2: to see what you have to say because you have

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Speaker 2: the Seattle as your pick.

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Speaker 1: I was much stronger on Seattle my min four and

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Speaker 1: a half early and then take you know, we have

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Speaker 1: this week off right to kind of think about it

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Speaker 1: more and play around with it and kind of settle

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Speaker 1: into a more official prediction. And I feel less confident

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Speaker 1: about it than I did in the couple of days

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Speaker 1: after we found out the matchup. Ultimately, I am still

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Speaker 1: going with it, and the reason is I think if

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Speaker 1: this game is close, the Patriots are winning, and I

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Speaker 1: think of this game is not close, the Seahawks are

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Speaker 1: going to win, Like, I don't see a world where

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks win by like two or three points, Like

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Speaker 1: I don't think the Seahawks are winning by field goal.

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Speaker 1: I trust Mike Rabel enough as a tactician and a

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Speaker 1: game manager that late game, like, even even with a

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Speaker 1: young quarterback and you know, obviously playing in his first

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. I just have so much faith in that

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Speaker 1: coaching staff that I think Patriots pull it out if

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Speaker 1: it's close. But if it's not close, I think the

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Speaker 1: more likely team to win, and obviously, like a five

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Speaker 1: point win wouldn't be a blowout, but like the more

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Speaker 1: likely team to win I think handedly is Seattle because

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Speaker 1: they're just the better team. Right. This is by DVOA

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Speaker 1: a top five team like in that era, since they,

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Speaker 1: like dv I started tracking, which I don't think is true. Right, Like,

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Speaker 1: I think I think most people watching this team would

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Speaker 1: say this is not really like a top five team

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Speaker 1: ever type of performance. And maybe some of that is

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Speaker 1: just the baggage of Sam Darnold's career, and maybe some

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Speaker 1: of it is just like you know, the eye test

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Speaker 1: or whatever it is. It doesn't feel like that's true,

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Speaker 1: even if the analytics are saying it is. But the Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: like you talk about, like you know they're susceptible to

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Speaker 1: the deep ball. I think they're just susceptible to the Rams.

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Speaker 1: Like like the Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay have played

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Speaker 1: this team really well. I think they are the two

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Speaker 1: best teams in football this season. But if you go

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Speaker 1: back to Thanksgiving, the points given up by the Seattle

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Speaker 1: defense are zero nine, sixteen, thirty seven, ten, three, six,

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Speaker 1: and twenty seven. The thirty seven to twenty seven were

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Speaker 1: both the Rams. Everybody else is scoring sixteen points or fewer,

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Speaker 1: and even going back earlier in the year, Like, right,

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Speaker 1: that's just since thanks Giving, you know, those point totals

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Speaker 1: are giving up twenty two, twenty one, twenty four. Those

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Speaker 1: are the biggest numbers, not to the Rams. The only

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Speaker 1: exception besides the Rams this year where they really like

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Speaker 1: the defense got shredded was the loss to Tampa Bay

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Speaker 1: that happened October fifth, Like that was a very long

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Speaker 1: time ago. So like, this defense is very very good,

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Speaker 1: to the point where I'm not looking at what Matthew

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Speaker 1: Stafford did and saying, oh, this is the path for Drake.

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Speaker 1: Drake made a replicated and the Patriots to replicate it,

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Speaker 1: and I'm now worried about the Patriots throwing deep on

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Speaker 1: this defense. I think that is just a McVeigh Stafford

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Speaker 1: Rams thing where we saw multiple times this year they

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Speaker 1: had this defense's number, nobody else really did outside of

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Speaker 1: the random fluky game, you know, against Tampa Bay. So

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Speaker 1: I think that the Seahawks have a better chance of

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Speaker 1: winning this game by a touchdown than the Patriots do,

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Speaker 1: and that is the direction I'm leaning. The other thing, too,

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Speaker 1: is there has been some pushback about the Patriots the

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Speaker 1: schedule narrative, not saying that it wasn't easy, but saying like, well, hey,

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs, like look at the defenses they've played,

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Speaker 1: the Chargers, really really good defense, the you know Texans

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Speaker 1: at Broncos, two of the three best defenses in football,

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Speaker 1: obviously Seahawks being the other one who they're about to play.

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Speaker 1: But Drake may didn't look good in those games, right,

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Speaker 1: he did enough to win, but they weren't winning on

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Speaker 1: the backs of the offense, like stepping up against these

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Speaker 1: really good defenses. So I don't have a lot of

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Speaker 1: confidence that they're going to do the same. Now, there

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Speaker 1: was weather in a couple of those games, that will,

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Speaker 1: you know, presumably not be the case in this game.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not looking at this playoff run like, well, hey,

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Speaker 1: they beat these really good defenses. Maybe that like goes

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Speaker 1: against the scheduling narrative, like, yeah, the offense didn't do

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Speaker 1: anything in those games. They won because they were facing

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Speaker 1: Justin Herbert without an offensive line. They're facing the corpse

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Speaker 1: of CJ. Stroud, and they were facing Jared Stidham in

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Speaker 1: a blizzard for half the game. Like and for as

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Speaker 1: much as I have doubted Sam Darnold in a lot

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Speaker 1: of these other games, like in the playoff run and

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Speaker 1: we kten and all that on the show, I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to doubt him anymore, at least in terms of

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Speaker 1: how he will play relative to the quarterbacks the Patriots

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Speaker 1: have already faced on this playoff run. So I think

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Speaker 1: this is a legitimate step up in competition, not just

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Speaker 1: from what the Patriots have played all season, but from

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Speaker 1: what they have played in the postseason as well. Not

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Speaker 1: that they're going to be totally unprepared, right they have

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Speaker 1: two weeks to get ready for it. They know this

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Speaker 1: is a very good team. But you know, I guess

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Speaker 1: the way I would kind of simplify it is, I'm

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Speaker 1: reasonably confident in both run defenses doing a good job

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Speaker 1: against the opposing rushing attacks. And I'm reasonably confident in

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Speaker 1: the Seattle passing defense doing a pretty good job against

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Speaker 1: Drake May and the passing offense. The one that I'm

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Speaker 1: less confident in is the Patriots passing defense against the

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Speaker 1: Seattle passing offense. That's the matchup that I think will

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Speaker 1: determine this game. And it's a matchup where I am

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Speaker 1: going to give Seattle the edge, and it's enough of

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Speaker 1: an edge that I think if they win, they can

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Speaker 1: win by a touchdown, which obviously easily covers this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you when where to me, it's

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Speaker 2: Seattle blows out the Patriots or the Patriots win by

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Speaker 2: field goal, right, Like, that's kind of how I see

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Speaker 2: this game. So it really goes against You don't really

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Speaker 2: want to make a pick against the spread if because

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Speaker 2: that doesn't capture what outcomes we think are actually most

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Speaker 2: likely to happen here. So you change the line to

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Speaker 2: Seahawks win by seven. Okay, now you're getting much higher payout.

379
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Speaker 2: Same thing with just bidding on the Patriots to win

380
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Speaker 2: out right, don't sweat the spread necessarily where you can

381
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Speaker 2: get more value for your pick and what you actually

382
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Speaker 2: think is going to happen, because again, these are sometimes

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Speaker 2: more of like it feels like a hedge a little

384
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Speaker 2: bit more putting the Seahawks at four and a half

385
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Speaker 2: where the market is undecided, Well, we're not really we

386
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Speaker 2: think the Seaws can maybe kill the Patriots when we

387
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Speaker 2: think they're better. They're they're more obviously better by the

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Speaker 2: field goal, but not enough where like, well, we don't

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Speaker 2: want to make them too much of a favor by

390
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Speaker 2: a touchdown, Like that's ludicrous when what are the most

391
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Speaker 2: often points scored? It's either a field goal or a

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Speaker 2: touchdown like so, so I mean theoretically they could, you know,

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Speaker 2: play like a team that won by four and a half,

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Speaker 2: but you look up and they won by ten, right,

395
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Speaker 2: because that's just the way that some of the scoring

396
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Speaker 2: ends up working. So I agree with you there, Like

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Speaker 2: those are the sides that I would like to lie on.

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Speaker 2: So I just I like the Patriots of them money line.

399
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Speaker 2: You like the Seahawks to win by you know, six

400
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Speaker 2: and a half points. I think that is the right

401
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,600
Speaker 2: way to approach this particular match. But we did want

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Speaker 2: to add just one last thing. Mentioned this on the

403
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Speaker 2: trip to a bunch of different people. Drake May plays

404
00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,680
Speaker 2: really bad and bad weather. He's played in bad weather

405
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Speaker 2: at times this year. That's when he's looked as worse.

406
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Speaker 2: When they played the Raiders in Week one, people forget

407
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Speaker 2: they lost to the Raiders. Yeah, it rained in that game,

408
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,439
Speaker 2: and Drake May did not look good like he looked hardly.

409
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Speaker 2: It looked like, oh no, like Patriots fans were way

410
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Speaker 2: over their skis, like they were never gonna be they

411
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Speaker 2: were never going to take this massive leap. You gotta

412
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Speaker 2: be patient with Drake May. In Tampa Bay. That was

413
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Speaker 2: a road game. It rained at the beginning in the

414
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Speaker 2: first half, Drake May looked terrible. And yeah, I think

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Speaker 2: that he has struggled a little bit with some of

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Speaker 2: these weather concerns. Now hoping that's not a factor in

417
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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl MATCHU again in Santa Clair. Hopefully the

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Speaker 2: weather is fine. Just one thing I wanted to layering

419
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Speaker 2: because you did bring up with the weather in terms

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Speaker 2: of the Patriots offense struggling. I do think that did

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Speaker 2: have a major factor. Obviously, playing top five defenses is

422
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Speaker 2: also going to play a role. The other thing too,

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Speaker 2: And you mentioned the Rams because I know a lot

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Speaker 2: of us looked at last week, Oh, this was the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl. The Rams have been such a good team,

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Speaker 2: and I thought the Rams and Seahawks were probably yeah

427
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Speaker 2: like Dvoa wise, just their bodies of work were just

428
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Speaker 2: so excellent this year. I just want to point out

429
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Speaker 2: how Mike McDonald was brought in to be the Seahawks

430
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Speaker 2: coach to beat the forty nine ers, to beat the Rams, right,

431
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,000
Speaker 2: like that was his main job because there was no

432
00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:35,680
Speaker 2: way Seattle's ever going to get to the Super Bowl

433
00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,120
Speaker 2: unless they got through those two offenses. And that's exactly

434
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:40,560
Speaker 2: what he was able to do. And he looked how

435
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 2: well he performed in rematches against those opponents eight and

436
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,520
Speaker 2: zero in terms of same season rematches. So when he

437
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,639
Speaker 2: got extra time, an extra look at a particular offense,

438
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 2: specifically when it was Shanahan or Sean McVay, like, he

439
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:57,239
Speaker 2: threw his best punch in that second rematch matchup. So

440
00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:01,639
Speaker 2: that's what concerns me about not wanting to overvalue the

441
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 2: Seahawks here because they're coming off another big win against

442
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 2: the Los Angeles Rams. Like, again, I don't want to

443
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,639
Speaker 2: classify this as oh, well he's owned these offenses. No,

444
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 2: but I think that he has had the upper hand,

445
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 2: especially in rematches against those types of teams, and that's

446
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,680
Speaker 2: not the case here against Drake May and a Josh

447
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 2: McDaniel's offense that is very much different in terms of

448
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,159
Speaker 2: how they play offensively. So that was just one thing

449
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 2: I wanted to mention.

450
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 1: The other thing I will say too, to wrap up

451
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 1: this point, is there is a like, the overwhelming consensus

452
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,359
Speaker 1: at least in terms of what I have seen online

453
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 1: is like people taking the Seahawks, And it is like

454
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 1: very tempting to say, like, you know, we should be

455
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 1: fading the public here, like it is it is so consensus.

456
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:49,880
Speaker 1: It feels like people are usually wrong when the consensus

457
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 1: goes in that direction. So like that does make me nervous. Genuinely,

458
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 1: I do want to let everybody know we have a

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464
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465
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 1: and Android. The other thing that I want to say here,

466
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 1: Eric Sandon, I'm going to loop this into the totals

467
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,239
Speaker 1: and I'll go first on this one is I like

468
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,439
Speaker 1: you talked about Mike McDonald and specifically what he can

469
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:28,399
Speaker 1: do against Shanahan and McVeagh. I do think, and I

470
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 1: have felt this way basically since he was the Ravens

471
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 1: defensive coordinator in twenty twenty three. I think Mike McDonald

472
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 1: is like the chosen one on the defensive side of

473
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:40,359
Speaker 1: the ball. Like a lot of people, the Ravens obviously

474
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 1: hired Jesse Minter, who helped develop this defense with Mike

475
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 1: McDonald when they were both working under week winke Martindale

476
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,360
Speaker 1: in Baltimore. So a lot of people, like Baltimore fans,

477
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 1: are like, well, we missed out of McDonald, but we're

478
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 1: getting like the other McDonald, like the guy who put

479
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:54,920
Speaker 1: this together. I think Jesse Minter is really really good.

480
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 1: I think he's a brilliant defensive coordinator, great defensive play caller.

481
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,240
Speaker 1: But I think it's sort of like Kevin o'can donald

482
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 1: compared to Sean McVay Like, there are other really good

483
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,880
Speaker 1: play callers out there, but McVeagh is like the one.

484
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 1: I think Mike McDonald is. Defensive McVeagh, I think he

485
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 1: is a true savant genius, sees the game in a

486
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 1: different way even compared to elite defensive play callers. So

487
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 1: for that reason, I am inclined to I think it's

488
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,199
Speaker 1: a good number. The forty five and a half is

489
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,239
Speaker 1: the total on the game. I'm taking the under, and

490
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 1: a lot of that is driven by Like, Mike Rabil

491
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,399
Speaker 1: is a very good defensive coach too, obviously, and the

492
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:32,239
Speaker 1: Patriots defense has been playing terrifically well again against you know,

493
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 1: maybe not the best offensive you know, opposition here in

494
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 1: the playoffs, but they've been playing really well and deserve

495
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 1: credit for that. They've been playing well, you know, all season,

496
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 1: went healthy, Milton Williams is awesome. Like, they match up

497
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,159
Speaker 1: well against Seahawks, I think, particularly on the ground, as

498
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 1: you already alluded to. But this is an under pick

499
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 1: by me, driven almost entirely by McDonald himself, Like, I

500
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 1: just think that guy is special, and you're giving him

501
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 1: two weeks to game plan for. Admittedly a very very

502
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 1: very good quarterback, but still a second yar quarterback in

503
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 1: his first playoff run, who has not played very well.

504
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 1: This is not a perfect team. It's not a good

505
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 1: offensive line. It's and it is a Seahawks defensive front

506
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 1: that I think can really take advantage of this offensive line.

507
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 1: It is just a stacked, healthy, top to bottom, great

508
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 1: elite defense against a good quarterback that doesn't have a

509
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 1: lot else going for it. You know, again, there are

510
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 1: good players on there, but not in terms of like

511
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 1: epic super Bowl matches going up against the best defensive

512
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 1: football types of players to that same degree. And then

513
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 1: you take the possibility of a Sam Donald, you know,

514
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 1: clock strikes midnight and everything falls apart, like that's on

515
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 1: the table, even if I'm not betting that to happen,

516
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 1: which would of course play towards the under as well.

517
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:44,679
Speaker 1: So for me, like again, I do think it's a

518
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 1: good line. I've been burned by taking the under against

519
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 1: the Seahawks before because something, you know, Sam Donald can

520
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 1: just step up and you know, all of a sudden,

521
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 1: it's a spiritual under, but it hits the over. But

522
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: for me, I like I cannot really describe how emphatically

523
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: I feel that Mike McDonald is just different in terms

524
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 1: of every other defensive mind in football right now, and

525
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 1: these things are cyclical. I'm not going to saying that

526
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 1: it's going to last for the next thirty years of dominance,

527
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 1: but right now I think he is head and shoulders

528
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 1: ahead of even the second best defensive mind in the sport.

529
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 1: And giving him two weeks to prepare for a flawed

530
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 1: offense is I guess the way to put it. I'm

531
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:21,679
Speaker 1: going that direction. The other thing I want to say,

532
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: and this kind of ties into the spread also, is

533
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,120
Speaker 1: last year I felt like on all these shows, everybody

534
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 1: said the same thing. It was the Eagles are the

535
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 1: better team, but the Chiefs have the quarterback, and you know,

536
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 1: Drake May doesn't have the same prestige that Mahomes did

537
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 1: going into that Super Bowl. But it is kind of

538
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 1: a similar thing of like, well, we like Drake May

539
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,679
Speaker 1: better than Sam Darnold, but the Seahawks are a better

540
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 1: overall team. I was picking the Eagles and I was

541
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 1: like the only one, and a lot of the shows

542
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 1: that I did, at least I know I'm not the

543
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 1: only one out there, but on the shows I was doing,

544
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 1: I felt like the only one, and I kind of

545
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 1: want to go back to that. Well, like, I think

546
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 1: the Seahawks are the better team, So even though the

547
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 1: Patriots have the better quarterback, like, I'm to trust what

548
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 1: I think is the best defensive football, which the Eagles

549
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 1: were last year, and I think that's the Seahawks Seahawks

550
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 1: for Texans this year, I think it's the Seahawks right now, obviously,

551
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: and and so I've taken the under. In addition to

552
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:11,919
Speaker 1: the Seahawks on the.

553
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 2: Side, I am also taking the under in terms of

554
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:20,200
Speaker 2: the total on this game. I think you made a

555
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 2: lot of great points about McDonald and I don't want

556
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 2: my analysis on him and how great he's done against

557
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 2: Shanahan and McVeigh as a reason to oh, yeah, well,

558
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 2: the Patriot's gonna score a boatload of points because he

559
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 2: can stop those offenses, but he can't stop in Josh McDaniels.

560
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 2: Because look like, I don't want to get viewers or

561
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 2: listeners confused by that. Fully expect him to throw a

562
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 2: ton at Drake Man and Josh McDaniels. Even though McDaniels

563
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 2: has a ton of Super Bowl experience, he is now

564
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 2: I believe this will be his sixth Super Bowl as

565
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 2: an offensive coordinator, again, he's even coaching more Super Bowls

566
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 2: as assistants he's been with the Patriots since, dating back

567
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 2: to their first Super Bowl run ever, know, in two

568
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 2: thousand and one against the Saint Louis Rams. So I

569
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 2: do think that this is going to be a challenge

570
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 2: for the Patriots offense overall, even if Drake May can

571
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 2: make a few plays, because that's really been the recipe

572
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 2: for success for them against all these top tier defenses. Again,

573
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 2: Seattle will be the four straight top ten defense Patriots

574
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 2: will have faced in the postseason. Their offense in the

575
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 2: last three weeks in the playoffs has averaged under sixteen

576
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 2: points per game. Now, the overall points per game is

577
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 2: boosted because they've got one pick six against CJ. Stroud,

578
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 2: but offensively, like when Drake May has been on the field,

579
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 2: they have not been going over sixteen points. The two

580
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:33,199
Speaker 2: defenses are allowing eighteen points per game on average, So

581
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 2: the offenses have obviously made a lot of their games

582
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 2: goal into higher scoring. At twenty eight point six, that's

583
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 2: forty six point six points per game in terms of

584
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 2: the total. So yeah, I understand why the total is

585
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 2: where it is at forty five. Again, Seattle games forty

586
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 2: six and a half points average, Patriots games forty four

587
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 2: and a half points. So this is where the total

588
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 2: is coming from. It's taking just the averages from these

589
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 2: two teams throughout the entire season. But as we've talked

590
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 2: about it already, the Patriots have played really bad team

591
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:01,919
Speaker 2: for the majority of the season, and their games have

592
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,199
Speaker 2: then averaged forty four and a half points. And what

593
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 2: have we seen in recent weeks when they played tougher defenses.

594
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 2: The games have been much lower scoring. So I have

595
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 2: yet to find anybody again to your point about what's

596
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 2: the consensus. Yeah, Seahawks probably gonna win lay the points

597
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:20,120
Speaker 2: of Seattle. I have not heard much compelling evidence that

598
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 2: this is a shootout. Now, it doesn't mean that the

599
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 2: game can't go over the total. Again, turnovers happen, weird

600
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,640
Speaker 2: things can happen, But I'm not looking up and hearing

601
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 2: things where you gotta all bet this game to go

602
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 2: over sixty points or something ridiculous like that. And then

603
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 2: if that is the case, usually well Seahawks are gonna

604
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 2: putp a forty burger on the Patriots and they're gonna

605
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,120
Speaker 2: do most of the damage on their side because it's

606
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 2: going to turn into a blow in which case I

607
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 2: would rather just alternate bet the Seattle Seahawks to win

608
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 2: by ten points rather than bet the game total, because

609
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 2: I just don't think that this has the ingredients of

610
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 2: a shootout, kind of like what you talked about with

611
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 2: an elite defensive play caller on one side with Mike

612
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 2: McDonald and I mean Mike Rabel too, like this is

613
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 2: where he comes with. Yes, I know that he has

614
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 2: been in the CEO role with the Patriots. He's not

615
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 2: calling defensive plays, but he does have a lot of

616
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 2: input on what the defense does. And as a guy

617
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 2: who's played in Super Bowls before, we've seen like two

618
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 2: defensive minded head coaches. I think that the first half too, especially,

619
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 2: they're going to be feeling things out here. So that's

620
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 2: actually how I really like approaching this game as well

621
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 2: as my official prediction here is actually the first half

622
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,199
Speaker 2: going under twenty three and a half points. So I

623
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 2: do like the entire game total and go under forty

624
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 2: five and a half points, but I really like the

625
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:34,479
Speaker 2: first half game or yeah, the undergo on twenty three

626
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 2: and a half points. In the first half, I think

627
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 2: we're gonna see plenty of running attempts by both teams,

628
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 2: between ken Walker and Randre Stevenson, and we've seen at

629
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 2: times both coaches they don't care how inefficient they've been

630
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 2: rushing the football, like, Nope, we're going to establish the

631
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 2: run in the first half, regardless if we're only picking

632
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 2: up two and a half yards per care like, they

633
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 2: will stick to it even if it doesn't seem like

634
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 2: it's working. Between ramondre Stevenson and ken Walker. You look

635
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 2: at the Patriots this year in terms of what they've

636
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 2: done towards the total in the first half. They're twelve

637
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 2: to eight towards the over in the first half, so

638
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 2: they have a slightly positive total hit rate over in

639
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 2: the first half of games. But the Seattle Seahawks are

640
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 2: six and thirteen, so they have not been a team

641
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 2: that's necessarily been a bonanza up for first half scoring

642
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 2: from a total perspective, They've done plenty of their own

643
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 2: damage scoring in the first halfs of games. And then

644
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 2: to point back about I've mentioned a couple times here

645
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 2: before about Josh McDaniels, Right, so he's one of the

646
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 2: few guys that we can kind of look at and

647
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,479
Speaker 2: see like, okay, well, what has he done trend wise

648
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 2: as the Patriots officer coordinator, So he is three and

649
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 2: two towards the over overall in games in the Super

650
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 2: Bowl in his five Super Bowls as OC, and three

651
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 2: and two towards the over in the first half, so

652
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 2: not really compelling either way. However, the average in those

653
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 2: games is under twenty points per game, so that would

654
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 2: put him under the first half, which here is listed

655
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 2: at twenty three and a half points in the first

656
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 2: half of this Super Bowl. Here, the Patriots haven't scored

657
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 2: more than fourteen points, and first half of Super bowls

658
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 2: called by McDaniels, four of the five games have scored

659
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 2: twelve or fewer points in the first half. So I

660
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 2: think that just simply put, you've got two defensive mind

661
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 2: to head coaches going head to head. I think the

662
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 2: first quarter we could look up a give the zero

663
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 2: zero or three zero. A lot of Patriots super Bowls

664
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 2: start out really, really slow. Trust me, I remember all

665
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 2: of them, like, there wasn't a lot of scoring, and

666
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 2: I think McDaniel's being a carryover from a lot of

667
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 2: those teams. I think matters that you also have two

668
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 2: quarterbacks that have been kind of nursing some injuries, right,

669
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 2: How's Sam Darnold's a bleak gona respond? How's Drake may

670
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 2: Schulder going to respond? I think they kind of keep

671
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,479
Speaker 2: things simple in the beginning, keep it close, and then

672
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 2: in the second half, I think you see these teams

673
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 2: be a little bit more aggressive if we don't really

674
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 2: see one team established dominant. So again, I agree with you.

675
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 2: I would be riding with you on the game total

676
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 2: going under forty five and a half points, but specifically

677
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: my prediction just to be a little bit different here

678
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 2: is the first half going under twenty three and a

679
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 2: half points.

680
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: One other thing I wanted to hit on in terms

681
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 1: of the under and sometimes this actually does have an impact,

682
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 1: and sometimes it doesn't. I don't know if this will

683
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 1: be one of those times. Clint Kubiak is going to

684
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: be the Raiders head coach, to what degree is there

685
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 1: a little bit of distraction, Like obviously you spend your

686
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: whole life working towards the Super Bowl, Like he is

687
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,719
Speaker 1: going to be focused and try to win. But like

688
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 1: we have seen this sometimes where like Jonathan Gannon when

689
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: the Eagles were in the Super Bowl going to the Cardinals,

690
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 1: like there was a lot of talk about like how

691
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 1: much was he focused on that game planning and was

692
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 1: he or was he thinking about his staff in Arizona.

693
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 1: And like again, I'm I sometimes it doesn't matter. Sometimes

694
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 1: it does to whatever degree it could matter. That's the

695
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator and if he is, you know, at a

696
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 1: ninety percent instead of one hundred percent, just another you know,

697
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: direction pointing towards the under. I'm not saying that's a

698
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 1: reason solely to take the under. We already like it,

699
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 1: but just it's in the back of my mind.

700
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 2: I guess no, I think that's a really good point,

701
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 2: and I don't have much to add from that angle,

702
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 2: but I just think for a person like Kubiak, and again,

703
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 2: we're all humans here, I think it just really sucks

704
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 2: that he's kind of put into that position where you

705
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 2: want to be all in on your team to win

706
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, but you could nothing. I mean, look,

707
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 2: we saw Matt Patricip basically coach one of the worst

708
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 2: games ever and still get the head coaching job the

709
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 2: next year with Detroit after he got completely destroyed by

710
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 2: the Eagles in the Super Bowl. I remember seeing the

711
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: social media comments about so Delions still have to hire

712
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 2: this guy, right, So again, I don't envision that happening

713
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 2: with Kubiak. Again, you're a professional, You're able to focus

714
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 2: on things, especially with all these athletes and coaches dealing

715
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 2: with distractions on a day to day basis. But I

716
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,719
Speaker 2: do wish that there was more from the league where

717
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 2: they could kind of prevent this, And I get that

718
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 2: it probably can't go that way because teams need to

719
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 2: hire coaches, teams need gms, teams need to start rebuilding

720
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 2: because all the thirty, all other thirty teams don't care

721
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 2: about this game, like they're like, we're trying to get

722
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 2: better for next year and get back to the super Bowl.

723
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 2: So I understand it, But do you think that is

724
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 2: another good point from the human element here? Again, a

725
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 2: lot of players with Super Bowl experience. I think that

726
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 2: matters here as well. So yeah, just a lot of

727
00:32:58,120 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 2: factors to Troy.

728
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 1: But even if he spends one hour this week thinking about, like, Hey,

729
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 1: who would make a good defensive coordinator for me in Vegas?

730
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 1: That's one hour that he's not thinking about what are.

731
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 2: The schools like in Vegas? Because I'm most my kids.

732
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 2: Well again, like his wife calls him up, he's like, hey,

733
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 2: like what are we about this? What I think about this.

734
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 1: How Yeah, I don't really clear. I'm not saying like

735
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 1: that Kubak is being unprofessional or anything remotely. Not am

736
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 1: I saying. I'm just saying it's hard for the human element.

737
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: Not in the back of your mind. Again, it is

738
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 1: not a reason to alan for that take the under

739
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: but it is a small point.

740
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 2: That's It's like, well, cause again I like the Patriots,

741
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 2: and I didn't even bring it up. You're the one

742
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 2: that brought it up. Uh.

743
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 1: Want to let everybody know that the winner of the

744
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Championship Belt giveaway is mister Minion Money. Please

745
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,720
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746
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 1: Bag at Fantasypros dot com with your mailing address and

747
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 1: a screenshot of your YouTube account page while logged in.

748
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 1: Once we confirm that we'll get your prize shipped out again.

749
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 1: Congrats to mister Minion Money and that email address is

750
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 1: mail Bag at fantasys dot com. We gave away a

751
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Championship Belt in January Ericson and we're doing

752
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 1: it again for February. If you want a chance to

753
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 1: win the ultimate symbol of fantasy glory, the Fantasy Football

754
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755
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758
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760
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:30,799
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761
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,240
Speaker 1: right now, drop a comment below on any of our videos,

762
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 1: and that's it. We will be announcing a winner right

763
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:36,719
Speaker 1: here on the channel. So make sure to turn on

764
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 1: notifications so you don't miss your chance to claim this

765
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 1: championship belt and flex on your entire league. All right,

766
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 1: let's get us some props in here ericson before we

767
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 1: get out of here. I had a few that I

768
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 1: was like, picking between the two. I cannot kind of

769
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 1: land it on the one I didn't go with, but

770
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:59,720
Speaker 1: it was in my final two. Is Drake May rushing

771
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,840
Speaker 1: on the over the attempts is six and a half.

772
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 1: I actually don't know how much I like that. It's

773
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 1: the rush rushing yardage of thirty seven and a half

774
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 1: that I like. We have seen, Like just thinking back

775
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,360
Speaker 1: to the AFC Championship game, like nothing else is working.

776
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 1: What was the best offensive play in that game? It

777
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,759
Speaker 1: was Drake May running the ball like with his legs.

778
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:22,839
Speaker 1: They clinched the game. It's a lot of what they

779
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:25,880
Speaker 1: did like to the path to having that lead like that,

780
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 1: that is what was effective for them when nothing else was.

781
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: The Seahawks, like I didn't actually pull up the numbers

782
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 1: in terms of like where they rank against the league,

783
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 1: but if you just look at their game logs going back,

784
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 1: you know, the last couple of months, unless they were

785
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 1: facing a team that had like because there was a

786
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:46,319
Speaker 1: lot of like Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers, you know, Stafford's

787
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 1: not a runner. If it wasn't one of those types

788
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 1: of players, there were a lot of like rushing it

789
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 1: rushing yardage totals in the high twenties, mid thirties from

790
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 1: guys who had any mobility, and Drake May is very

791
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 1: good at it and in big games runs more and

792
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 1: if nothing else is working, as kind of not even

793
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 1: a break glass in case of emergency, but just still

794
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 1: like hey, this is like what we need to do

795
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 1: to win, even with like the shoulder injury. Stuff, Like

796
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 1: how much do you want to, you know, open him

797
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 1: up to hits. This is a Super Bowl. He's not

798
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 1: gonna care about that. So I think that number being

799
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 1: in the thirty if it was like in the forties, like,

800
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 1: that's too rich for my blood. That number being in

801
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:22,279
Speaker 1: the thirties and on hard rock bet is thirty seven

802
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 1: and a half, which is actually a little lower that

803
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 1: you can get elsewhere. I like the overrun that, but

804
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: that is my backup choice, my number one choice that

805
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 1: I ended up settling on. Jackson Smith and Jigba over

806
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 1: six and a half receptions. This is the best receiver

807
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 1: in football this year. It's either him or Pooka, Like

808
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 1: I think it was probably JSN. They're both awesome. He

809
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 1: is the best player on the offense, and I think

810
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 1: the Patriots have a better chance of stopping Kenneth Walker

811
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:48,959
Speaker 1: in the ground than they do JSN through the air.

812
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: So like I didn't want to, I didn't want to

813
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 1: touch the yardage because it was up in the nineties

814
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 1: and that just gets rich, Like it's just really hard

815
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,840
Speaker 1: to do it when it gets that high. But Jsn,

816
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 1: it's over six and a half receptions most games, like

817
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 1: unless like the game where they shut out the Vikings

818
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 1: they didn't need him, that he didn't. But like most weeks,

819
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 1: he's in that seven or eight range. This is the

820
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 1: super Bowl. He's their best player. Like I just I'll

821
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 1: be very The world in which he doesn't get to

822
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 1: seven receptions is the world where Sam Darnald completely falls

823
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 1: apart in terms of a pumpkin and just can't get

824
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 1: him the ball. Because if Sam Darnald is good enough

825
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 1: to get him the ball, they are going to get

826
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 1: him the ball. I think, like JSN trying to think

827
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 1: who else would even mean in the conversation, like, I

828
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 1: think he will be the single best player on the

829
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,879
Speaker 1: field in this game, like relative to his position. So

830
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 1: and again six and a half, that's not that big

831
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 1: of a number for a guy if his caliber and

832
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 1: what he's done this season. You talked about him earlier

833
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 1: like gonna be Offensive Player of the Year. He's a

834
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,320
Speaker 1: superstar And I'm happy to take him at six and

835
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: a half on the over.

836
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that he's gonna have his fair chances

837
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 2: to win the thing with Gonzales that I think, again

838
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 2: not trying to overblow. Oh, he's also going to lock

839
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:01,879
Speaker 2: him down. I really don't think that's how this game

840
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 2: plays out. Again, They're not going to line up on

841
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,240
Speaker 2: every single snap. This isn't Darrell Reeves or Stefan Gilmore

842
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 2: where he just follows the same guy everywhere. Now, maybe

843
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:10,359
Speaker 2: they do a little bit more shadow coverage with him

844
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 2: because they do know that Jaysn is so heavily involved

845
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,400
Speaker 2: as a thirty five percent target share type of player.

846
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 2: I don't think the Patriots are just going to throw

847
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:21,280
Speaker 2: everything they've done on defense and just kind of deploy

848
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 2: a completely different scheme just because of one particular matchup.

849
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,400
Speaker 2: It's a matter of does Gonzalez win the battles in

850
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter, right, That's how the Gonzales edge and

851
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 2: works from a handicapping perspective. But from my props perspective, yeah,

852
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 2: I think that Jayson can still catch eight balls, still

853
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 2: go for a lot of yardage. It's just a matter

854
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 2: of do the keep Hm out of the end zone

855
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,359
Speaker 2: yes or no? And do they limit him on a

856
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 2: third or fourth down conversion? Does Gonzales create a pass breakup?

857
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 2: That is where you're looking to back Gonzales and the

858
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 2: Patriots defense against JSN. I think that's where it shows up,

859
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 2: not necessarily in the full.

860
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:57,919
Speaker 1: Counter box score. Yeah. I did stare at JSN first

861
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,600
Speaker 1: touchdown score on hard Rock bet it's plus f five hundred.

862
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 1: I wanted a little more out of it because I

863
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:04,879
Speaker 1: think there are other options. So I couldn't quite get

864
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 1: to there. But if I had to bet, I do.

865
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 1: I do think he probably scores a touchdown in this game,

866
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 1: but first touchdown I couldn't quite get there, so I

867
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 1: went with their receptions.

868
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:17,359
Speaker 2: I do like the angle from Seahawks pass catcher as

869
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 2: first touchdown because the Patriots, the majority of touchdowns they

870
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,799
Speaker 2: give up. I believe it's either first or second heist

871
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 2: in the NFL is through the air, just because you

872
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 2: can't run on this defense when they have all their

873
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 2: guys healthy with Williams, Tonga, Barrowmore Spelane. It's just and

874
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 2: Seattle has not been efficient enough on a down to

875
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 2: down basis to rely on. Oh it's going to be,

876
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 2: especially without sharbon Nae, because I think that they they

877
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 2: use him at the goal line for a reason, right,

878
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 2: because he was good and the reds and not the

879
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 2: goal and let's say that Walker can't score. But I

880
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 2: think it's just a little bit more of a reason

881
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 2: to Hey, maybe they throw the ball a little bit

882
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 2: more closer to the end zone. Before I list off

883
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 2: my prop, I do want to mention with the Drake May.

884
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 2: I had a follow up question for you. Would you

885
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 2: like to wager on Drake May to leave the game

886
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 2: in rushing yards? So we did talk about Earl how

887
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 2: we don't we could see a path where both run

888
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 2: defense is shut down Ken Walker shut down Remandre. That

889
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 2: would mean Drake May would probably be the next most

890
00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:11,320
Speaker 2: likely player to have the most rushing yards unless you

891
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:13,400
Speaker 2: see one of these other Henderson breaks off a big

892
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 2: run or sh he breaks off a big run. Now,

893
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 2: would that be a way that you would I know

894
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 2: that you said you didn't like it at forty yards.

895
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:20,919
Speaker 2: I'm not sure forty yards would get him to lead,

896
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:24,800
Speaker 2: but kind of betting on those more outlandish type of outcomes,

897
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,479
Speaker 2: would that'd be something you'd sprinkle on a longer shot odds?

898
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:30,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it would depend on what the odds were.

899
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 1: But that is intriguing to me, you know, like Kenneth

900
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 1: Walker has been so good, and the fact that there's

901
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 1: no charbonnay, like he will get the lion's share of

902
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 1: everything and it's capable of breaking off stuff of his own,

903
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 1: Like the Patriots run defense is so strong that like

904
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:48,479
Speaker 1: I'm not yet. You know, it's like you're gonna predict

905
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:51,280
Speaker 1: the big Kenneth Walker game. But he has been genuinely

906
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 1: awesome in January, and we'll get a full workload. And

907
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:56,720
Speaker 1: you know, like I expected more of a split between

908
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 1: Ramandre and Travon in January, and that's not really been

909
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 1: the case. It's been the Remandre show. So I like

910
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 1: the fact that those guys are getting the bulks of

911
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:06,759
Speaker 1: the workload even against a really tough run defenses, Like

912
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:08,320
Speaker 1: I do think one of them will probably lead the

913
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 1: game in rushing. But Drake May two of the three

914
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 1: games of the playoffs, he was over sixty.

915
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:16,720
Speaker 2: Exactly, like he has shown pretty high ceiling. That's way above.

916
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 2: So again, if you don't like me, I feel like

917
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 2: I like the high just to kind of go for again,

918
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 2: go for the juggular with just like all right, I

919
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 2: was taking to lead the game in rushing yards at

920
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 2: this point if you don't like, just betting the meeting,

921
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 2: because again, the number is already pretty high right where

922
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:31,799
Speaker 2: it's like thirty seven thirty eight and a half yards,

923
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 2: Like that's already pretty high. Numbers.

924
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 1: It's so it's not available on hard Rock Bet, so

925
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 1: I'm not going to say where it is available because

926
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 1: we like hard rock bet. But some of the numbers

927
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 1: that I'm seeing plus five hundred plus five fifty plus

928
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 1: six hundred for Drake may to lead the game.

929
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 2: In rushing yards, and that's a fun bet to sweat.

930
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 1: I like. I like that at those odds.

931
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 2: That's especially if the running backs don't start off well,

932
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:53,800
Speaker 2: especially in the first half, where it's like, oh, this

933
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 2: is live like that, and that's a bet that could

934
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 2: be live, especially deep into the third or fourth quarter,

935
00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 2: because that's really out of half the time. That's half

936
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 2: the fun, right, My death's not just dead by the

937
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 2: time the fourth quarter starts. So that's a nice dovetails,

938
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 2: nice line to my prop bet here that will be

939
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 2: live until the clock strikes zero zero zero zero. Travvon

940
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 2: Henderson to go over half a reception, so you kind

941
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 2: of hit on it a little bit earlier talking about

942
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:23,480
Speaker 2: how this really been the Stevenson Show. Trevon Henderson basically

943
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 2: didn't even play in the AFC Championship. Can't believe he

944
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 2: played four snaps, So it was all remandre a lot

945
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 2: of that to do with pass protection. That the bad

946
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 2: weather and the fact that they were just kind of

947
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:34,720
Speaker 2: playing bully ball and they were just trying to protect

948
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 2: the football and protectric may be very very conservative. They

949
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:40,320
Speaker 2: didn't need Henderson's explosive element in that game against the

950
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 2: Broncos because they were just trying to get out of

951
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 2: there with a win. Now, I don't think they'll have

952
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 2: that luxury against the Seattle Seahawks. I think they're going

953
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 2: to have to find ways to generate big plays because

954
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 2: you're not going to methodically move the ball down the field.

955
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:59,799
Speaker 2: Their offense has really struggled to consistently deliver scoring drive

956
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 2: on a play by play blasis in the playoffs against

957
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 2: some of these really tough defenses. If you look at

958
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 2: where they've had ten plus play scoring drives, they have

959
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 2: two in the last three games total. Seattle has the

960
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 2: number one defense on third downs. So yeah, there's gonna

961
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 2: be a lot of punts for the Patriots in this matchup,

962
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 2: but especially if they're not able to convert some of

963
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 2: these third downs, which they have not really been doing

964
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 2: against some of these tougher defenses. So I think Henderson

965
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:28,359
Speaker 2: he is an easy out for Drake may for them. Hey,

966
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 2: let's get this guy ball in space. Look at the

967
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 2: Sea Seahawks league high five point seven catches per game

968
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 2: allowed running backs number one in the NFL. No team

969
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 2: has allowed more running back catches than the Seattle Seahawks.

970
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 2: Part of that's because they've got a lot of zone coverage.

971
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 2: It's part of the reason why they've been so good

972
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 2: defensively against specifically wide receivers. But yeah, that's why I

973
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 2: like Treyvon Henderson to be a little bit more involved here. Again,

974
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 2: he always to do with catch one pass right and

975
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 2: we're gonna hit the over here, So it's a very

976
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:56,400
Speaker 2: low bar for him to hit. I get why the

977
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 2: line is where it is because he was basically not

978
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 2: existent the last matchup. Really hasn't been involved that much

979
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 2: in the playoffs overall. But I think against this specific defense,

980
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 2: they're going to need someone like Trevon Henderson. And I

981
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:10,799
Speaker 2: do like one of the trends, and this is something

982
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:12,719
Speaker 2: you can find in the betting pros prop bit cheat

983
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:15,920
Speaker 2: sheet in terms of the filter you can if you

984
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:19,319
Speaker 2: move the Patriots to underdogs. You look at the six

985
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 2: games where Travan Henderson and the Pats have been underdogs

986
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:26,239
Speaker 2: against the spread. He's six and zero towards the over

987
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 2: in those games for his receptions, and part of that

988
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 2: has to do with oh negative game script. They have

989
00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 2: to throw the ball in the second half more dumboffs

990
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 2: to running backs, So it makes sense intuitively that in

991
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 2: games where they're maybe trailing that they would get more

992
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:42,759
Speaker 2: passes involved to running backs. That's also why Seattle has

993
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:45,279
Speaker 2: given up the most passes running backs because they've been

994
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 2: winning for the majority of their games this season. So

995
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 2: I really like that, and I think Henderson too. If

996
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 2: you're looking for a fat or payout, I mean, he's

997
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 2: got bonkers long odds. Just to go over fifteen receiving yards,

998
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 2: that's almost close to four to one. It's eleven to

999
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 2: one from to go for thirty receiving yards. You can

1000
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 2: do that on one play. So if you think Henderson

1001
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 2: does get more involved here, I think there's a lot

1002
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:08,840
Speaker 2: of ways to take advantage of, especially with the recency

1003
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 2: buys of him basically not playing at all in the

1004
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:14,320
Speaker 2: AFC Championship game. So I like him to have a

1005
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:15,960
Speaker 2: bigger impact offensively.

1006
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:18,680
Speaker 1: It's a great point by you, not just on this call,

1007
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 1: which I like, but having a pick for the Super

1008
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: Bowl that is alive late, like you either either hit

1009
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 1: it early or it's similar to like like you know,

1010
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:32,800
Speaker 1: Eddie player to catch a fifty yard pass in this

1011
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 1: game something like that, like you have the whole game

1012
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 1: that's on the table. I liked. I like stuff like

1013
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 1: that where you're you're you're either hit it early and

1014
00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:43,040
Speaker 1: feeling great or you're like, I got a shot here,

1015
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: going going, let in the game. So I liked and

1016
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 1: and I think it's a good call on Henderson too.

1017
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 1: I want to let Dynasty managers know that we just

1018
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 1: launched the brand new Fantasy Dynasty YouTube channel. We will

1019
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 1: be bringing you rookie rankings, super flex strategy, startup draft

1020
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 1: and trade advice all year law. If you're building for

1021
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 1: the future, this channel is built for you. It will

1022
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:07,479
Speaker 1: be a lot of myself, Pat Fitzmorris, Scott Bogman, were

1023
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:09,920
Speaker 1: has some debro on there, SETH Wilcock doing some trade

1024
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:12,319
Speaker 1: draft show stuff. It's gonna be a lot of fun.

1025
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 1: It's the same kind of Dynasty show that Fantasy Pros

1026
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 1: has already been bringing you, but just at a new place.

1027
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 1: So check us out please. On the Dynasty YouTube channel,

1028
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 1: you can Just search Fantasy Pros Dynasty channel on YouTube

1029
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:24,839
Speaker 1: and then hit subscribe. If you like what we do there,

1030
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 1: we'd really appreciate it. Let's go to our hard rock

1031
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:29,880
Speaker 1: best Bets. Today's show is brought to you by our

1032
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 1: new presenting sponsor, hard Rock Best. So it's time for

1033
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 1: our hard rock best Bets of the week, presented by

1034
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 1: hard Rock bet Erickson. What is your hard rock best

1035
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 1: bet of the week.

1036
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the low hanging fruit. It is

1037
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 2: very very It's a very very juicy fruit because I

1038
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 2: believe the Henderson over on his receptions prop is close

1039
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 2: to minus two hundred. But as our new colleague Seth

1040
00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 2: Wilcock always says, you're not drinking the juice if you lose.

1041
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 2: You only drink the juice if you lose. So we're

1042
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:56,320
Speaker 2: not gonna lose this bet here. Henderson is going to

1043
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:57,879
Speaker 2: catch at least one pass. I think he's gonna catch

1044
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 2: more than one pass actually, So that my hard rock

1045
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 2: best bet of Super Bowl sixty because I'm too much

1046
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:05,200
Speaker 2: of a coward to make the Patriots my best bet.

1047
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,840
Speaker 1: Go dude, your team is in the Super Bowl, you

1048
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 1: are picking them.

1049
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:13,320
Speaker 2: Check out the Betting Pro Show when I when I

1050
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:14,680
Speaker 2: have to take a non prop doing my.

1051
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:18,840
Speaker 1: Best bet, I can't believe you are not taking for

1052
00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 1: your best bet your team to win the Super Bowl.

1053
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:26,200
Speaker 1: That is jaw dropping. I want to have fun picking

1054
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 1: a prop here, but I really can't get away from

1055
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:32,360
Speaker 1: I just I just like the under a lot and

1056
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:36,360
Speaker 1: just giving the coaches and the teams that we have.

1057
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 1: And you know the fact that the best coaches in

1058
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:41,319
Speaker 1: this matchup are on the defensive side of the ball,

1059
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:46,280
Speaker 1: and they're getting two weeks to prepare, Like the defenses

1060
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:49,400
Speaker 1: are both relatively healthy. You know, the offensive line is

1061
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 1: a lot better in Seattle than it was a year ago,

1062
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 1: but it's still not like the best offensive line of

1063
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 1: football either. Patriots offensive line has been a problem when

1064
00:47:57,600 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 1: facing really good defenses at times. Like, I just can't

1065
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 1: get away from the under, So that will be my

1066
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:03,279
Speaker 1: hard rock best bet of the week is the under

1067
00:48:03,680 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 1: forty five and a half on the total. Those were

1068
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 1: our hard Rock best bets of the week. If you

1069
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 1: haven't signed up with hard Rock Bet yet, there's never

1070
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 1: been a better time. New sign ups can double their

1071
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Speaker 3: Payble and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by

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Speaker 1: Ericson any party thoughts before we say go by until

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl.

1098
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Speaker 2: So I did get a chance to download the hard

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Speaker 2: Rock Bet at Florida in Florida because I was staying there.

1100
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Speaker 1: The only official sports book in Florida.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I made my first wager on the app, which

1102
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Speaker 2: I thought was really fun, really slick. Took the Bruins

1103
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Speaker 2: on the money line. They were up five to one

1104
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 2: against Tampa Bay and somehow lost and I was absolutely devastated.

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Speaker 2: But that's not hard rock bets problem.

1106
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Speaker 1: That's mine because I just, yeah, but what do you

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1108
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Speaker 2: Is bad beats exactly. But it was still a fun sweat.

1109
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Speaker 2: It was a fun ride. But yeah, that is why

1110
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:09,720
Speaker 2: I no longer bet on outdoor hockey.

1111
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Speaker 1: So thank you fair. All right, we'll go ahead and

1112
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 1: wrap things up there, I cannot say best of luck

1113
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 1: to your Patriots Ericson, I simply refuse, Like pretty much

1114
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:22,240
Speaker 1: the entire country. I'll be rooting for Seattle on Sunday.

1115
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 1: But I hope that you have a good time, and

1116
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:26,160
Speaker 1: I hope that the Patriots lose. But it's not in

1117
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Speaker 1: such a devastating, crushing fashion that it ruins your will

1118
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Speaker 1: to live. That's what I'm hoping for for you as

1119
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 1: my friend. So for Eric said, I'm Ryan warmly. Thanks

1120
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:37,080
Speaker 1: everybody for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Go bath.

1121
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:40,400
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.

1122
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

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Speaker 1: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts

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Speaker 1: at Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify. Follow

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Speaker 1: us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and

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Speaker 1: subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash

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Speaker 1: Fantasypros sh