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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by a hard rock bet.

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Speaker 2: We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is

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Speaker 2: the show that makes the square. Sharper makes the wise

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Speaker 2: guys pay attention. I am Chadmill.

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Speaker 1: I am joined as always by my co host, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my BFF Mike and Fivedre professional Better Simon Hunter Eto

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Speaker 1: Simeon Chad.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing, dude, I'm a champion.

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Speaker 1: So for the past, you know, seventy two hours, I've

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Speaker 1: pretty much just been watching every video, reading every tweet,

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Speaker 1: looking at every Instagram post. Last night at dinner, my

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Speaker 1: wife and I went out and we were talking about

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Speaker 1: the game and the Indiana game, and she goes, I

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Speaker 1: feel like you think you were on the field and

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Speaker 1: you won the game. I'm like, I committed thirty six

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Speaker 1: years of my life to this team. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: enjoy it. I'm going to absorb it. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: live it. I deserve it, my butt. My my son

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Speaker 1: asked me, like, what did I talk about?

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Speaker 2: Like all day? My son likes to ask like, what'd

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Speaker 2: you guys talk about? What he say? What did he say?

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Speaker 1: He likes to get in the into the weeds on

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Speaker 1: the details and he said, were were talking about with

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Speaker 1: Matt Andy on on Monday. I'm like, we talked about

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Speaker 1: Indiana at the game. We talked about Indiana at halftime,

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Speaker 1: we talked about it. All we did was talk about

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Speaker 1: are we going to win this game? We're winning this game.

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Speaker 1: Where we win this game, are we going to be champions?

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Speaker 2: That's it.

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Speaker 3: I don't know you. I've been enjoying the the old

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Speaker 3: Fernando Mendoz eclipse, right, Like they're posting clips with him

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Speaker 3: at Cal, him in high school.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, well that clip at Cal where the he

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Speaker 1: got knocked out by a Miami player and it's the

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Speaker 1: same player he ran over on the weird to the

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Speaker 1: end zone.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's just been great, Like, like again, a

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Speaker 3: lot of bad things about the Internet, but there are

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Speaker 3: some great things and this has been one of them

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Speaker 3: where it's like, you know, these people are pulling up

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Speaker 3: videos that why would you ever see his high school

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Speaker 3: recruiting right or him talking about being a Diehart Miami

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Speaker 3: Kanes fan, and yeah, just too watching him just grow

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Speaker 3: into a man, right like just I think he talked

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Speaker 3: this year he put on twenty extra pounds. Yeah, strength

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Speaker 3: conditioning coach, and I mean you saw that show up

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Speaker 3: in that run. So yeah, it's uh, it's been fun.

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Speaker 3: But just like you, I mean, it's NonStop football. The

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Speaker 3: coaching stuff right now is a professional better. It's probably

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Speaker 3: been the craziest stuff where not that it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: I'm betting futures based off these coaches. But we talked

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Speaker 3: last year we were way more confident betting the Patriots

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Speaker 3: and the Bears futures because we like their head coaching hires.

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Speaker 3: And it's been really fun hearing guys different opinions and

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Speaker 3: especially even like locally, just people talking about how the

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Speaker 3: Eagles can't go to OC right now. Offens Corner and

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Speaker 3: McDaniels picked the Chargers over Phil Yeah, uh.

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Speaker 2: It took different Chargers over a head coaching chap.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. When you break it down though, and it's like

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Speaker 3: do you want do you want to go to Cleveland

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Speaker 3: where they don't who the quarterbacks, or do you want

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Speaker 3: to go to La live in Manhattan Beach coach for

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Speaker 3: three four hours and head back to your pretty POSHK

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Speaker 3: life at the Manhattan Beach. I get why he made

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Speaker 3: that choice, but yeah, it's I mean, every year there's

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Speaker 3: a lot of coaching changes this year just feels so

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Speaker 3: unique in the sense that you know the big names right,

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Speaker 3: like the fact that Sean McDermott was fired, Tomlin was fire,

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Speaker 3: Hoball was fired. Yeah for for just as a better

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Speaker 3: I thought it would just be all conference championship conversation

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Speaker 3: this week, and it's been a lot of that, but

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Speaker 3: a lot of coach talk. It just it's been really

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Speaker 3: interesting to just how everyone's just so enamored with all

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Speaker 3: these coaching HighRes. So yeah, I honestly can't get enough

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Speaker 3: of it. And again, we're not even done yet. All

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Speaker 3: these teams are still have so many openings. It's it's

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Speaker 3: pretty well timed.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting to me that a coach like Brian Flores,

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Speaker 1: who was interviewing with the Steelers, decided to stay with Minnesota.

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Speaker 2: Mike McDaniel, who was.

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Speaker 3: In We didn't. He didn't decide that, he just signed.

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Speaker 3: He did a deal that if he doesn't become a

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Speaker 3: head coach anywhere, which again is pretty wild, he'll we

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Speaker 3: all go back the Vikings as their DC, even though

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Speaker 3: apparently some other teams are off from around five million

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Speaker 3: more so, you must really love that Vikings organization. They

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Speaker 3: basically signed a deal that if I do not get

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Speaker 3: hired by the Steelers or wherever else is the head coach,

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Speaker 3: I'm coming back through no matter what. Which, yeah, I

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Speaker 3: think you're alluding to. That's that's a huge deal, like

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Speaker 3: he is.

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Speaker 2: That's a huge deal.

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Speaker 1: Mike McDaniel deciding, Eh, I don't want to go coach

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Speaker 1: in Cleveland like Ben Johnson.

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Speaker 3: I don't want to go to Philly either. There's so

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Speaker 3: much drama on Philly.

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Speaker 1: Ben Johnson did this too, where he was pretty close

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Speaker 1: to taking a head coaching job and then decided it's

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Speaker 1: not the right spot, right and he waited for the

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Speaker 1: right money.

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Speaker 3: Didn't give him an insane amount of money.

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Speaker 1: Well, I don't know, but like at the end of

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Speaker 1: the day, he decided not to take it. And it's

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Speaker 1: interesting to me that there are coaches who are not

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Speaker 1: jumping at the first chance just because it's ahead coaching job,

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Speaker 1: you know what I mean. They're deciding, all right, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to take the best opportunity. That's interesting to me,

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Speaker 1: like that they're trying to control their destiny a little

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Speaker 1: bit more. And sure, the coordinator payment pay pay scale

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Speaker 1: was just getting bigger and bigger.

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Speaker 3: Fact, if you're Cleveland or Arizona, Like, who do you

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Speaker 3: find to come there?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 3: You're gonna have to find the the QB coach on

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Speaker 3: some team on Jacksonville or something to come. It's just

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Speaker 3: no one with any type of pull is gonna tack

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Speaker 3: those jobs and those tough divisions.

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Speaker 1: It's just not worth it. You can see three years

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Speaker 1: you're out. Jonathan Gannon had Kyler Murray. Yeah, the guy

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Speaker 1: who was supposed to be pretty good. It didn't work, right.

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Speaker 1: I wonder if I'm John Harbaugh, did I pull the

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Speaker 1: trigger too soon on the Giants? Because wouldn't John Harball

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Speaker 1: love to go coach the Buffalo Bills right now?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: You know, any candidate if they had known, they could

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Speaker 1: go get Josh Allen.

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Speaker 2: I don't know why Mike Tomlin is jumping off the.

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Speaker 1: Couch to convince the Steelers to end the Bills, to

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Speaker 1: make a deal to get him to be the coach there.

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Speaker 1: That is an ideal situation for him. Well.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if you saw Matt Mitchell going through

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Speaker 3: it on our social media's, but I think right now

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Speaker 3: the Bills as desirable as the John might be. We

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Speaker 3: talk all the time, buddy. It starts at the top

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Speaker 3: and that owner.

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Speaker 2: That was a weird press conference.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, as much as we love we've enjoyed these owner interviews,

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Speaker 3: that man took a blow towards to about six seven

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Speaker 3: years of really good grace that a lot of fans

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Speaker 3: have for that Bill's organization. Organization that felt like they'd

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Speaker 3: been doing it right these last couple of years. And yeah,

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Speaker 3: like I, like you said, I'm interesting what coaches going

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Speaker 3: to end up there where? It just seems like a

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Speaker 3: lot of turmoil, But I think O cool off, Like

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Speaker 3: you said, that Josh Allen piece, that's the enticing piece.

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Speaker 3: But to know you have a psychopath owner and potentially

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Speaker 3: a president of your football operations that's William to three

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Speaker 3: yarder of the bus at a moment's notice. Not not

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Speaker 3: the best situation.

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Speaker 2: Not a great look for GMS this year.

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Speaker 1: Between Andrew Berry in Cleveland, being in Buffalo, Joe Shine

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Speaker 1: in New York, all of them came out looking like

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Speaker 1: to any executive of in the wider world, like kind

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Speaker 1: of easily do to manage up and then through the

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Speaker 1: underlings under the bus and came out on the other

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Speaker 1: side looking pretty good to management, you know what I mean.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it honestly, would literally be me and you doing

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Speaker 3: a pick showing every Monday. I would just come in

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Speaker 3: and say, well, Chad, I didn't like that pick. That

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Speaker 3: was your pick, and then you'd being like, well, no, no,

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Speaker 3: I didn't like that when that was your pick, And

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Speaker 3: I mean that's what I felt like. It was just

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Speaker 3: straight vickery, and it's like, no, I'm not the one

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Speaker 3: that screwed this up, where it's like, dude, you got

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Speaker 3: to own your mistakes and keep it moving. My god,

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Speaker 3: that was I just have never seen a team throw

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Speaker 3: their number one pick or first round pick under the

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Speaker 3: bus like that. And we'll see what kay On Coleman

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Speaker 3: wants to do, but it's it's definitely an awkward situation.

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Speaker 2: Simon. You and I are BFFs. We don't throw each

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Speaker 2: other under the bus.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes.

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Speaker 1: We've been through it. We've been through We've been through

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Speaker 1: the battles. We've been through the battles. We stayed loyal

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Speaker 1: to each other, You, me and Matt Mitchell. We came

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Speaker 1: out on the other side, right, Is that what happened?

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Speaker 1: This is our Thursday Conference Championship preview episode. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: narrow down the options, find the five picks we can

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Speaker 1: agree on in the week, getting harder. Only two games

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Speaker 1: We're gonna intro way closer. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube,

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Speaker 1: Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get this thing going every week.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna give it our picks every week. Simon's fellow

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Speaker 1: pro gamblers are gonna give them an earful.

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Speaker 2: About those picks.

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Speaker 1: We had a lot of debate about these two games

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday. It's time to summarize those opinions. Special Championship

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Speaker 1: weekend edition of Sharp Calls Hal answer this phone, all right,

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Speaker 1: rain range telephone range.

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Speaker 3: Somebody said, maybe want to do in Yeah, well I'll

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Speaker 3: start with the game at the pros aren't too split

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Speaker 3: on right. I give away a little bit the hand

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Speaker 3: on Tuesday, which I love this Broncos team, and what

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Speaker 3: I thought was gonna happen did happen. Right. If you

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Speaker 3: were lucky enough to get the six, congrats here. Legally,

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Speaker 3: I don't think we ever got above the five and

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Speaker 3: a half, and that number is totally gone. Like I'm

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Speaker 3: looking right now, every book is basically four and a half.

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Speaker 3: There's a couple still holding that five. But you just

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Speaker 3: do the pro jun coming on this side and yeah,

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Speaker 3: for professionals I've talked to I know some guys right

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Speaker 3: that have positions on the Patriots, and sure they took

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Speaker 3: early position to have great numbers. But for big money,

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Speaker 3: real money, professional money, it is very heavily Denver, which

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Speaker 3: is making me a little nervous. But we'll get more

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Speaker 3: into that one and.

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Speaker 2: We will discuss some of this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the over. Obviously, professionals came in very heavy on

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Speaker 3: this Denver over. It was forty and a half, and

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Speaker 3: we talked about it. I think the most of them

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Speaker 3: are the same reason as I do. Right, if this

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Speaker 3: blizzard of twenty twenty six doesn't touch Colorado and it's

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Speaker 3: just high twenties, sunny two quarterbacks that can potentially the

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Speaker 3: ball over a lot, it should move up. And it has. Right,

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Speaker 3: it's up to forty two and a half. So nice

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Speaker 3: to see I wasn't totally wrong on my early feelings

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Speaker 3: about this over. I just I wish I wasn't as gunshot.

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Speaker 3: I wish I just leaned into it right away on

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Speaker 3: Tuesday show. And yeah, for the La Seahawks game, this

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Speaker 3: one is very split. It's it's really split in the

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Speaker 3: sense about what number can you get here? Right. I

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Speaker 3: think a lot of pros that I talked about there

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Speaker 3: was a lot of resistance at the three. I'm still

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Speaker 3: seeing pros take la at the two and a half.

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Speaker 3: So it's really interesting where it's very very public. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: the Seahawks, we knew it was gonna be right. This

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Speaker 3: is a Rams thing that most people have left for dead.

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Speaker 3: But I am just shocked the sandwich professional love there

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Speaker 3: is for the Rams. So that's gonna be a really

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Speaker 3: fun back and forth as well. And another toll that's

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Speaker 3: pretty split. Most pros I've talked to, though they lean

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Speaker 3: towards the Under. Once again, these are the same pros

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Speaker 3: that like Seattle, so it makes sense if you like Seattle,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna like you the Under. And if you really

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Speaker 3: do like the Rams, why would you not expect to

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Speaker 3: be a shootout, right, That's that's the type of game

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Speaker 3: you're hoping for for the back of the Rams. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: for the sharp calls. This week, It's been a lot

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Speaker 3: of debate about the sides and the totals, but not

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Speaker 3: so much in that Denver Patriots game that feels very

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Speaker 3: one sided. Professionally, I love it.

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Speaker 1: We're going to have a good conversation because that ram

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Speaker 1: Seahawks game we talked about a little before we came

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Speaker 1: on the air, so I'll still a little.

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Speaker 2: Bit vexed, all right.

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Speaker 1: So we'll be back to our normal Sunday routine, pregame

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Speaker 1: show in the morning, postgame show after the rams Seahawks game.

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Speaker 1: These will be our last Sunday shows of the season.

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Speaker 1: No more long, frightening, dreadful walk up the third floor

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Speaker 1: steps for me. We're going to do our brass Balls

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Speaker 1: bet of the week on Sunday. We still weren't quite

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Speaker 1: decided on where we wanted to land and needed a

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Speaker 1: little more intel before we wanted to make that pick.

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Speaker 1: Want to be as confident as possible, So we'll do

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Speaker 1: that on Sunday, all right, Like I said, Subscribe to

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Speaker 1: Sharper Square on YouTube subscribing like this video. You can

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Speaker 1: also subscribe to Sharper Square and Apple Pods, Spotify, etc.

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Speaker 1: Our contest players reminder, we include sides and totals for

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Speaker 1: all the games, plus and props.

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Speaker 2: This week.

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Speaker 1: All right, New eng Land at Denver. The line has

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Speaker 1: come down. It was five and a half, it's now

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Speaker 1: four and a half. The totals forty two and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's gone up in the forty eight hours since you

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Speaker 1: made this game. Simon says, Look, you set it on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: This is all I've seen for forty eight hours. Every

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Speaker 1: person I talked to, every person I respect in the industry,

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Speaker 1: they have hammered the Broncos at five and a half

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Speaker 1: and they felt like the line move in the Broncos

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Speaker 1: direction from a professional point of view, was just too big,

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Speaker 1: like they would have had this game Broncos too two

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Speaker 1: and a half. We talked about this on Tuesday. Moving

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Speaker 1: in eight points. It's just too much for a quarterback

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Speaker 1: like bo Nicks, who like averaged six point four yards

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Speaker 1: per attempt and insurance did him. You have a guy

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Speaker 1: who has been from statistically a league average starter, not

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Speaker 1: backup league average starter when you look at his EPA. So, Simon,

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Speaker 1: I think we're both really comfortable with the with the

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Speaker 1: Broncos at five and a half. I'm still comfortable at

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Speaker 1: four and a half. Like you know, four is the

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Speaker 1: key number here, It's the line of demarcation for me.

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Speaker 1: So I'm still comfortable with the Broncos here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just like you. I love it, and like you,

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Speaker 3: I'm also it's never any amount of positive Denver picks.

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Speaker 2: And I now I hit it, now, I hit it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. That's what's making me a little nervous where

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Speaker 3: it's like it feels a little bit like pros are

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Speaker 3: talking down that general broke in, especially people that watch

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Speaker 3: a lot of game film where it's like, oh, they

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Speaker 3: don't know, they don't know. I've watched these guys three games.

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Speaker 3: I've asked preseason games, and I mean, I might have

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Speaker 3: been Jordan Palmer, it was. It was it was someone

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Speaker 3: that coaches up quarterbacks who basically went on I don't

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Speaker 3: know if it was Dan Patrick or richid to Show.

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Speaker 3: He went on one of those shows and basically said, on

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Speaker 3: any given day, Sinham is just as good as.

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Speaker 2: Drake May and oh Jesus.

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Speaker 3: Right, And it's like it's people are going too far

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Speaker 3: one way. But my favorite thing about football it isn't

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Speaker 3: every given Sunday can for one day, can he outplay

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Speaker 3: Drake May who was in a hostile environment on the

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Speaker 3: road facing the number two scoring defensive football. Yes, like

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Speaker 3: that that is more realistic than saying he can outplay

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Speaker 3: the potential MVP of the NFL this season. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: the back and forth it's been a little tough to digest. Uh,

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Speaker 3: you know, the numbers. Like I talked about, I don't

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Speaker 3: want to poop pooh the pitchers. I don't want to

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Speaker 3: give them respect. I think I talked about a little

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Speaker 3: bit that Drake may is eight to oh straight up

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Speaker 3: this season, seven to one against the spread on the road,

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Speaker 3: he's been the best road quarterback. So as much as

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Speaker 3: you want to say he struggled with adversity or he

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Speaker 3: will in this game because he's on the road, I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's a soft schedule, but he showed up in those games, right.

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Speaker 3: It's not cakewalkked when on the road, let alone in Buffalo,

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Speaker 3: which is what he did. You know, I've been impressed

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Speaker 3: by what Drake's down the road, but this is a

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Speaker 3: total different beast, like the playoffs on the road, not

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Speaker 3: even that a playoff on the road against a team

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Speaker 3: that is rallying around an injured quarterback. And that's what's

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Speaker 3: been so oppressive with Devers. Even bout Nick's talking about

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Speaker 3: his like farewell or whatever his report after he got hurt.

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Speaker 3: I think he put on Instagram or something just basically

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Speaker 3: talked about how the whole team is rolling around Steadham

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Speaker 3: and like it's like his good friend and he believes

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Speaker 3: in him and all this stuff. It just seems like

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Speaker 3: and now that it's giving me the Nick Foles vibes,

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Speaker 3: it kind of is right. It's like a team that's like, well,

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Speaker 3: no one's counting counting on us anymore. Everyone's going against us.

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Speaker 3: And you know it's if you're in New England, as

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Speaker 3: good as you are, it's fair for us to have

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Speaker 3: questions about your team, right. It is fair to question

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Speaker 3: you've had an they schedule, it's fair to question that

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Speaker 3: you face two quarterbacks that have totally melted in the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: And if Stepham can just play within the Champagne offense,

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Speaker 3: I do think he can succeed. And you know, looking

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Speaker 3: at their injury port Chad, they're gonna have Franklin back,

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Speaker 3: They're gonna have all these receivers back. And you could say, well,

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Speaker 3: who cares about Franklin. This is a guy that he

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Speaker 3: had a ton of work, not only in the preseason,

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Speaker 3: but in a lot of practice. He was a guy

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Speaker 3: that played a lot of second team reps, which to

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Speaker 3: me is a big deal. And when you break it down,

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Speaker 3: you go through their roster Franklin was number two in

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Speaker 3: their team in touchdowns. He was Sutton at seven, Franklin

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Speaker 3: had six. So again it's to shove my hand on

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Speaker 3: liber and props. You have to bet a Franklin touchdown

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Speaker 3: anytime prop like they've moved it down a little bit.

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Speaker 3: It did open up plus three fifty, it's come down

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Speaker 3: a little bit. I think most people have what I have,

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Speaker 3: which is a ton of info that he's worked a

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Speaker 3: lot with Franklin these last two years. It's been a

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Speaker 3: guy that he stays after practice with him and bow

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Speaker 3: knicks and works on reps and running routes. That's a

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Speaker 3: real thing, those type of connections. When the bullets start

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Speaker 3: flying and he's starting to panic, he'll he'll throw in

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Speaker 3: the coverage to a guy like Franklin, something that he

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Speaker 3: has a rapport with and trust with. So that was

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Speaker 3: something that jumped out right away where it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: if me and Chad have to make some type of prop, bet,

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Speaker 3: I don't imagine I don't mind attacked in Franklin's type

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Speaker 3: of props of either receptions or is over receiving yards.

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Speaker 3: He feels like he's gonna be the forgotten man because

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Speaker 3: we already know Chris Gonzalez is gonna be on Sutton.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna I'm assuming they'll have Chris Gonzales Sutton who's

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Speaker 3: been you know, he did have bad drops last week,

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Speaker 3: but he has been their number one shiver this year.

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Speaker 3: The Broncos, no doubt about it. So I am leaning

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Speaker 3: a little bit into Franklin hearing and I saw Dobbins

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Speaker 3: possibly can come back here, which is a huge deal

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Speaker 3: that run game. So you know, the injuries, it's brutal,

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Speaker 3: Abo Nicks, the rest of their team for Denver seems

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Speaker 3: like it's getting health at the right time. And you know,

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Speaker 3: the more numbers I dive into defensively, I think they're

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Speaker 3: gonna be able to give Drake May some real problems.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, like I keep saying, I'm highly confident you,

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Speaker 3: but just like highly confident Denver, but just like you.

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Speaker 3: It feels like every pro I know, everyone I've talked to,

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Speaker 3: is just.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's becoming too much. It's like.

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Speaker 1: There was the shock of you know, the news the

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Speaker 1: other day and excuse me and everyone sort of letting

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Speaker 1: it settle. To your credit, you were on it right

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Speaker 1: away on Tuesday, as soon as we got off the show.

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Speaker 1: I bet it at hard Rock back because I was

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Speaker 1: still in Florida. Better as big as I could and

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Speaker 1: as my as my system would allow, meaning my internal

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Speaker 1: gut system, what my stomach can handle.

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Speaker 2: But don't forget this Patriots defense.

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Speaker 1: They're kind of awesome against the run, So it doesn't

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Speaker 1: really matter if Dobbin's is back. This is going to

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Speaker 1: be a Jared'stidham game, like he is going to have

392
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Speaker 1: to throw the ball so many times. Sean Payton backup

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks in his career seventeen and five. He is not

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Speaker 1: afraid to scheme with backup quarterbacks. He's not afraid to

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Speaker 1: let loose with backup quarterbacks. And to your point, to

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Speaker 1: all of the analyst point, the drop off from BOENNICKX

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Speaker 1: to Stidham is not as dramatic as the point spread

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Speaker 1: is allowing. I don't think we're betting money line on

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Speaker 1: the Broncos here. I did take a taste of the

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Speaker 1: Broncos to win the Super Bowl, because why not when

401
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Speaker 1: all of a sudden there's a team in the title

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Speaker 1: game for the weekend in there eleven to one, twelve

403
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Speaker 1: to one, thirteen to one, that's just a rarity. You

404
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 1: might as well take a flyer. But also because their

405
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Speaker 1: defense is so elite and Drake May has been so

406
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Speaker 1: bad against the rush, against the pass rush the past

407
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Speaker 1: few weeks, fumbled six times, ten sacks in the past

408
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Speaker 1: two weeks, been dismal against pressure. The Patriots overall have

409
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Speaker 1: been worse stopping pressure since Will Campbell came back from

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Speaker 1: the injury. How many times have we seen on TV

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Speaker 1: the analyst pointing out Will Campbell just getting bull rushed

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Speaker 1: by guys into Drake May's face and disrupting his ability

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Speaker 1: to step in the up in the pocket. So it's

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Speaker 1: going to be an interesting game. It's a great matchup

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Speaker 1: defensively for the Broncos, and you know they're going to

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Speaker 1: be amped and feel like they have to do more

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Speaker 1: because of the Bonux injury.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, poor Will Campbell who's not fully healthy and it

419
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Speaker 3: comes back from an injury and then has to go

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Speaker 3: against two really good defensive lines and like you said,

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Speaker 3: doesn't get any much easier here. And they honestly haven't

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Speaker 3: been helping him like a lot of times because they

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Speaker 3: like to pass it to the running backs at the back.

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Speaker 3: They don't chip with him, like they're literally leaving on

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Speaker 3: one on one against guys who you know, even last

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Speaker 3: week like Will Anderson just had his way with him,

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Speaker 3: like you said. And you know, for me, I know

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Speaker 3: it might not mean much to you as much it

429
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Speaker 3: means to me, but Dobbins to me is a big deal,

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Speaker 3: just because he was so important for them this season

431
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Speaker 3: and like anytime they needed that thirty three, third and

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Speaker 3: four they would run it. Where when he got out,

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00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 3: Sean Paynon basically never took out of bo Nex's hands

434
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 3: on those type of places. Yeah, he would just say

435
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 3: what I remether live and die with bow knicks here.

436
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 3: Then Harvey the rookie getting the carrier again, he does trust.

437
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 3: We've seen him lean into him here down the stretch.

438
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,360
Speaker 3: But Dobbins, he played ten games for him, he still

439
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 3: led the team in rushing by almost two hudred yards

440
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,439
Speaker 3: even though he's been out since Week ten. So he

441
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:30,719
Speaker 3: was really important for them earlier in the season. And

442
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 3: you know, before we move off this one, I just

443
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,920
Speaker 3: want to give it out one more time. Like Chad said,

444
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 3: I wouldn't do the money line like I did give

445
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,119
Speaker 3: out the Super Bowl future just because that's where the

446
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 3: value is and the books have followed, right, You could

447
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 3: have got thirteen to one, fourteen to one. The best

448
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 3: I can see now is twelve to one. Tops. I'm

449
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:51,400
Speaker 3: seeing a lot. Eleven to one is ten to one.

450
00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 3: So the books have reacted right, the money has coming

451
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 3: on that future. Like Chad said on Denver to make

452
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,879
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl, but this overtime stat, I'll give it

453
00:21:59,920 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 3: up one more time check because it is it just isn't.

454
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 3: It's just what we talk about, right, the wear and

455
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 3: tearing these guys bodies in the playoffs. In the history

456
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 3: of the playoffs, I should say, or since two thousand

457
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 3: and two, teams to play in overtime and then have

458
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 3: a game obviously the next week in the playoffs are

459
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 3: just six and thirteen straight up. Since twenty fifteen, they

460
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 3: are one to four against it spread, losing by fifteen

461
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,919
Speaker 3: points per game, zero to five straight up. So you know,

462
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 3: not the best for the Broncos. But at least for

463
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 3: them is they have the rest, right, they have extended

464
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 3: rest because they play on the Saturday, So hope they

465
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 3: won't affect them as much as the next time we're

466
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 3: at about to talk about this Rams team. But yeah,

467
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 3: I'm like you, I did not bet the Denvers money

468
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:49,879
Speaker 3: I just simply bet Super Bowl futures. And it's interesting too,

469
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:53,919
Speaker 3: the look ahead lines, they were nine and a half eight,

470
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 3: so the Seahawks were nine a half favorites, and I

471
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 3: leave the Rams are eight and a half favorites over

472
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:01,120
Speaker 3: the Denver Broncos. Both those lines well have come down.

473
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 3: So I know it's people won't get it. That why

474
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 3: professionals are just hammering this Denver team. It's just you're

475
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 3: always looking for these opportunities of teams to win Super Bowls,

476
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 3: let alone not the quarterback. And we've had a We've

477
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 3: not that we haven't had one in a while, But

478
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 3: the last one I can really think of is Denver

479
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 3: with Peyton Manning. And this feels a lot like it, right,

480
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:25,439
Speaker 3: Like that Patriots team with Brady They might have been

481
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,880
Speaker 3: a three point favorite heaving in Denver because no one

482
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 3: believed in Peyton Manning, right, and I know he was

483
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 3: a neot along the time, but he threw for two

484
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 3: touchdowns in that game. Like they they won that game

485
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 3: with just great dominant defense. I think it's a little

486
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 3: bit of that here. So Patriots historically have never won

487
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 3: in Denver in the playoffs in the career. They're own

488
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 3: four straight up own four against the spread, and you

489
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,879
Speaker 3: think about all those great Brady teams. Whatever it was

490
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 3: that was is he just had the bad mojo a

491
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 3: mile high. And we talk all the time that thin air.

492
00:23:56,800 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 3: It does get to you eventually, right And you know, Denver,

493
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 3: you know they're up ten points and a half against

494
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 3: the Bills. But in the second half you did see

495
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 3: it when Bonick were scrambling the Bills guys were sucking

496
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 3: win like that's that's a real thing. So I'm interested

497
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 3: how this game goes in the sense that if it

498
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 3: is a Dobbins game where you can lean on the

499
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 3: run the second half and they can wear out this

500
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 3: Patriots defense, I do think that's a real thing, this

501
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,439
Speaker 3: Broncos team. So yeah, I hope everyone grabbed it. If

502
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 3: you haven't grabbed the number, and the best you can

503
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 3: get us four and a half. Still don't mind that

504
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 3: number either. I told you, I really think this numbers

505
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 3: should be in three and a half by kickoff. We'll

506
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 3: see the Pros do with this one. I could see

507
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 3: them still coming in heavy. Maybe this does just three

508
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 3: and a half. So you want to grab the Broncos

509
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:38,639
Speaker 3: now out, I'd grab the five or four and a

510
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:39,439
Speaker 3: half if you still can.

511
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 2: The one thing I would say about Dobbins.

512
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 1: If it's not Dobbins, Jared Stidham might throw the ball

513
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: thirty five times, because even in overtime, Sean Payton only

514
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: ran the ball eleven times. So we know what we're

515
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,239
Speaker 1: going to get from Sean Payton. He's going to put

516
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 1: the ball on the quarterback's head and he's going to

517
00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 1: let it let it ride if it's not someone that

518
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 1: he really trusts in the backfield.

519
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,360
Speaker 2: To carry them ball. One more thing about Sean.

520
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 1: Payton when he's a field goal dog or more in

521
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 1: his career sixty six percent against the spread. So really

522
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: it's like we are betting against that trend about overtime,

523
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 1: but everything else is in the direction of betting on

524
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 1: the Broncos for.

525
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 3: The total Sunday. I think, I don't know if Chad's

526
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 3: with me on it, but I'm all the over. I'm

527
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 3: just having to bet. As heavy it comes Sunday morning,

528
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 3: I'll have a much stronger opinion on Brosers right, and

529
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 3: that's my sure. I like it. They could get an

530
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 3: arctic blast. It could be eight degrees at kickoff for

531
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 3: all week.

532
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:45,719
Speaker 1: The props that are going to be listed in this

533
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 1: In this game for the contest, Drake may passing touchdowns

534
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 1: one and a half, Jared Stidham interceptions a half.

535
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 2: So those will be the props that are available in

536
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:57,360
Speaker 2: the contest.

537
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 3: I like that. I'm over, yes do I yeah a lot? Actually, man,

538
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,719
Speaker 3: that's probably real chalky of us. But right away when

539
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 3: you read that, it's like that, I know it seems weird.

540
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 3: Real gracious prop to give to a guy making his

541
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 3: first start in two years.

542
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm putting on my glass assignment because we got

543
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 1: a new sponsor and I want to make sure I

544
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:23,360
Speaker 1: get it exactly right. We got the three biggest games

545
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 1: of football remain and like I did down in Miami,

546
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 1: it's going to be a memorable time this weekend. See

547
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: my friends, my neighbors, have some laughs, have a few drinks,

548
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 1: But the next morning, I don't bounce back like I

549
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 1: used to.

550
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 2: And I'm a.

551
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 1: Huge morning guy. You guys know, I'm a huge morning guy.

552
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 1: I love my mornings. If I have to choose between

553
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 1: a great night or a great morning, I'm choosing morning.

554
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:53,280
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555
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556
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:05,720
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557
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:06,679
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558
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 1: When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct

559
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560
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,600
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561
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:20,920
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562
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:25,200
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563
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:30,159
Speaker 1: Just remember to make pre alcohol your first drink of

564
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:35,160
Speaker 1: the night. Drink responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Obviously,

565
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 1: I never get too crazy, but anytime I take pre

566
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 1: alcohol before a night out with.

567
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 2: My drinks, I know it is a real difference. In

568
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 2: the morning. I can wake up early, I get my

569
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 2: workout in, I yell at Matt Mitchell, all true. I

570
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 2: feel amazing. Now.

571
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 1: It's become a part of my game plan before a

572
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,399
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573
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574
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575
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,960
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581
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583
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 1: O got it this morning? Did my workout feel great?

584
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: Mornings are better when you feel better. Los Angeles Rams

585
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. It's minus two and a half. The

586
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 1: totals forty six and a half. I think you and

587
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 1: I are split on this game. I haven't bet it yet,

588
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 1: but I keep looking at the Rams and thinking the

589
00:28:56,840 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 1: only thing that is in the way of the Rams

590
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 1: is when Sean mcvagh makes bad decisions in the middle

591
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: of the game. You look back at that Bears game

592
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 1: and his game plan, which he's talked about, was atrocious,

593
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 1: Like it's mind boggling. He barely ran the heavy packages

594
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 1: which the Bears can't stop. He barely ran the ball,

595
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 1: which the Bears couldn't stop. The only three times they

596
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 1: really ran the ball, they scored touchdowns. I mentioned on Tuesday,

597
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 1: like I worry about these moments in the game where

598
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 1: McVeigh and Stafford seem to have these lapses. McVeigh makes

599
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 1: some questionable decisions, Stafford can't find his rhythm. But in

600
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 1: those two games against the Seahawks, including Week sixteen, they've

601
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 1: been dominant. So I got a lot of stats, I

602
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 1: got a lot of thoughts. I want to share them,

603
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 1: but first I want to give you a chance to respond,

604
00:29:56,080 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 1: because I want to make sure that my bias for

605
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: the Rams is not moving me into a bad place.

606
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this is my fear of the Rams is

607
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 3: it's a it's a sharp trap. It's just everything about

608
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 3: it is a sharp trap. Like why wouldn't you take

609
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 3: them as a dog, especially when you just like you said,

610
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 3: if you just go blindly off the two games this year,

611
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 3: the Rams won their first meeting twenty one to nineteen

612
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 3: and didn't get to cover, which again we that haunted

613
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 3: us because we had them the contest where right when.

614
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 1: The seven the whole game, all right, they were winning

615
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 1: that whole game like that was a They dominated that game,

616
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 1: absolutely dominated that game.

617
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:41,959
Speaker 3: And like, to me, this is the peak though, this

618
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 3: is like we talked about, this is peak Rams. This

619
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 3: is Rams right when they're basically just on and in

620
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 3: sane ron of being the best team in football. Right,

621
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 3: And the next time they play, I think it was

622
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 3: the nineteenth of December, they lose without DeVante Adams by

623
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 3: one point thirty eight to thirty seven, just insane game

624
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 3: over time.

625
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: Gained five hundred yards against the best defense and didn't

626
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 1: have DeVante Adams or Kevin Dotson.

627
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 3: But the they had their own injuries in that game.

628
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 3: They lost two starting corners and I think they lost

629
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 3: the safety as well.

630
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 2: But and they didn't have a left tackle, right.

631
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 3: So it's like, I can't fault you for taking the

632
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,479
Speaker 3: points to your Chad, because all these games margins, we

633
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 3: just said it was one and two. Yeah, yeah, you're

634
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 3: getting two and a half. Just blindly playing the numbers game.

635
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 3: It's like, okay, if they play this game a thousand times,

636
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 3: I agree with Chad, Like, if you're just fifty to fifty,

637
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 3: it feels like more often than that you will be

638
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 3: right on the Rams side. That's what the number is

639
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 3: kind of telling you here. But I'm gonna keep giving

640
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 3: out the numbers and I'm gonna try banging the people's heads.

641
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 3: The NFL did an absolute job on this Rams team,

642
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 3: Like they've They've already made it really hard for these

643
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 3: wildcard teams to make a run. That's why we haven't

644
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 3: had one in a while. I think the last time

645
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 3: we had was game I'm trying to think back, was.

646
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 2: It Kansas City? Were they a wildcard.

647
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 3: Team now because they always won their division? Or the

648
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 3: charge is always yeah, it's just again, it's been a

649
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 3: long time. We've not had it since the changing of

650
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 3: the one seed, right, since the two seed plays a

651
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 3: seventh seed and the one seeds only team with a bye,

652
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 3: we've not had a wild card team make a run,

653
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 3: which again shows you more how important that bye week is.

654
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 3: Where every year feels like the team that has a

655
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 3: bye week usually makes a Super Bowl. I know it

656
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 3: didnt happen last year, but it's been happening the years before,

657
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 3: and those Rams team were walking right into it. I

658
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 3: just talked about they're on rest disadvantage. They played on

659
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 3: a Sunday against a team that played on a Saturday. Okay,

660
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 3: let's just look at the numbers blindly. Look at those

661
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 3: numbers in the playoff history teams and those rest disavantagh

662
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 3: so team they played an extra day and they're all

663
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 3: and they put an overtime game. They are one in

664
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 3: eight straight up in this exact spot in the history

665
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 3: of the playoffs, three and six against the spread, which

666
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 3: I guess is a little benefits reviewing the Rams. The

667
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 3: one outright win, just can Chad remember the one outright

668
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 3: win on a team with the rest is probably not

669
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 3: It was the Bears over the Saints and six seven.

670
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 3: So it's been a long time, Like it's just been

671
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 3: a very long time since the team has played an

672
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 3: overtime game, had shorter rests. We're able to go on

673
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 3: the road against a higher seed and win a game.

674
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 3: It's just I mean, think about that. It's really impossible

675
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 3: to stack against it. So can they find a way? Yeah,

676
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 3: we just talked about like Stafford's been here before. This

677
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 3: man has gone to Super Bowls. It's funny enough for

678
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:29,600
Speaker 3: me if this if they were a favorite here on

679
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 3: the Rams, JAD, I'd be much more confident. I'd give

680
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 3: you those numbers as a favorite. Stafford McVeigh. They went

681
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 3: out right every time. Like when they're a favorite, they

682
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 3: just always win in the playoffs. Stafford's never lost as

683
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 3: a favorite. He's five to zero straight up in his

684
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 3: career as a favorite. Best Mark of any quarterback in

685
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 3: NFL history. So it's telling you, it's telling them by

686
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 3: the books. Right, they opened this at one and a half.

687
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 3: The pros betted up. The resistance was photo three. The

688
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 3: pros have hit this back on the other side. Right,

689
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 3: there's tons of pros on the Rams side and they're

690
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 3: still hitting the two and a half. But like I've said,

691
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 3: there's some very heavy and resistance from these pros on

692
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 3: this SAX team. Like there's a reason this number hasn't

693
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 3: been bet that I've been hoping. I've been hoping I

694
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,359
Speaker 3: could get under the two because, like Chad, I do

695
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: think this number could be very close, very close type

696
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,760
Speaker 3: of game. But when I just look at this matchup,

697
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:19,399
Speaker 3: you know, I would have a much more confidence if

698
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 3: I had reports of Sam Donald no longer an issue

699
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 3: practicing full this whole week. He's been limited there. They

700
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 3: basically have him on. I think it was like a

701
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 3: rep of like ten to twenty throws rest and then

702
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 3: maybe another ten to twenty throws in practice. It's like, Okay,

703
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 3: that's that's not something I want to be hearing about

704
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 3: a quarterback. That we expect this to be a game

705
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 3: where there's points, Right, I just more often than that.

706
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 3: There should be points of this game. So you know,

707
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:48,399
Speaker 3: like you, I'm having a tough time with this one

708
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 3: with the total on the side, where I was definitely

709
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 3: more confident on Tuesday with the seaux, I still am confident.

710
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 3: I just I can't believe this is a legit lingering

711
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 3: issue for Sam Donald. Like he threw seventeen times in

712
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 3: that game. You would think, you know that he didn't

713
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 3: take any hits like he'd he would be much better

714
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 3: this week, And it's like, Okay, that was a serious,

715
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 3: serious injury. They're they're not letting out because to be

716
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 3: lim me to him in this week, that just shows

717
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,399
Speaker 3: what he's going through. So I totally get you're coming

718
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 3: from on the on the LA side, and like I said,

719
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 3: it's hard for me to go against him. I just

720
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 3: then more of I look at this one. The more

721
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 3: I dive into, it's like, can they overcome the injuries

722
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 3: their offensive line? Can they overcome the injuries to their secondary?

723
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 3: Of this Rams team? And you know that Bears team,

724
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 3: it felt like they were running it down their throats

725
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,719
Speaker 3: check they really felt like they were moving in. They

726
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 3: just felt like they were so much bigger than this

727
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 3: Rams D line and looking at the weight to spread.

728
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 3: See it's the same exact thing here like this, this

729
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 3: is a big old line for this. The Seattle team

730
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 3: on the flip side, their D tackles talked about they

731
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 3: have two all pros. I mean on that de tackle line,

732
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 3: Like Stafford's going to have pressure up the middle something

733
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 3: he is not facing these players the Bears.

734
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 1: That's what kills Yeah, that's what kills Stafford.

735
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 2: It's also what kills Donald.

736
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 1: Like the Rams have not had a hard time getting

737
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 1: pressure against Donald, whether he's been with the Seahawks or

738
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 1: with the Vikings. Don't forget Like in these last three

739
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:22,240
Speaker 1: games he's thrown something like eleven interceptions against this Rams defense.

740
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 1: It's the defense that has his number literally, So.

741
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,320
Speaker 2: It's tricky. It's just tricky.

742
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 3: No, it's really hard. And I just I'm trying to

743
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,399
Speaker 3: lean into the rest in the rest because I do

744
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:38,399
Speaker 3: think it's such an important key that the general plulk

745
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 3: does overlook. They just think these guys, you know, they're

746
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 3: grown men, How bad bad beat up can they be?

747
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 3: But it's like you're talking to Rams and that has

748
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 3: not had a bye week. They've been playing playoff games

749
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 3: since week ten or eleven, like every game they've had

750
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 3: to win because the Seahawks team they had to keep paid. Yeah,

751
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:56,840
Speaker 3: they had no days off, they had no rest weeks,

752
00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 3: and the Seahawks they did it. They got the one see,

753
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 3: they got the bye week and they got the easy

754
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 3: competition last week. So, like I said, if if Sam

755
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:07,879
Speaker 3: Darner was fully healthy, I'd be feeling the same way

756
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 3: I feel about Denvery, I'd be pounding the table with

757
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 3: the Seaowks team. They're being undervalued aby the market, but

758
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 3: this number feels right by the market price. So it's like,

759
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 3: I can't I can't tell you you're getting crazy value

760
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 3: on the Sioks team. Really not. You might be getting

761
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 3: half a point of value. That's nothing to go too

762
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:22,240
Speaker 3: crazy about.

763
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 1: How many games, simon, have the Rams lost this season

764
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 1: by more than three points?

765
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 3: The only one I got to think of is that

766
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:32,799
Speaker 3: Eagles flute cover.

767
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 1: We had Eagles flute cover the walk off block field goal.

768
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:37,359
Speaker 2: That's it.

769
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're not We're not going to get a three

770
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 1: in the contest like it's going to be two and

771
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 1: a half.

772
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 2: It's there's no doubt about it. So we're gonna have

773
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:46,240
Speaker 2: a hard decision.

774
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 1: But if this line gets to three at any point,

775
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:54,240
Speaker 1: I would highly recommend people are trying to pay attention

776
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 1: to this.

777
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:55,879
Speaker 2: This is how the wise guys do it.

778
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 1: They're not resting, They're not like, oh, I'll check it

779
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:00,879
Speaker 1: again in an hour like they they are figuring out

780
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:04,439
Speaker 1: ways to make sure if that line ever gets to three,

781
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 1: they are taking the Rams here. It's kind of what

782
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 1: I'm waiting on is I'm hoping to get the Rams

783
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:14,360
Speaker 1: at plus three, lean into those those stats from the

784
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 1: year ago to play in every game they're in it,

785
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 1: even if they're losing it.

786
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 2: But it's hard.

787
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 1: I mean, the Rams going into that Week sixteen game,

788
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: they're the team everybody thought was going to the super Bowl,

789
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 1: and I don't know that they're still not that team

790
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 1: since they lost that game in very flukish ways. They

791
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 1: were up in that game thirty to fourteen, thirty to fourteen,

792
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 1: and then that's when she heat ran that return back

793
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 1: for a touchdown, and that's when they had the fluky

794
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:53,520
Speaker 1: two point conversion, and that's when they lost in overtime

795
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 1: after they were up in overtime on another two point conversion.

796
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 1: Like that game cost them the rest they needed at

797
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 1: the playoff seating. It cost them the bye week. Now

798
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,720
Speaker 1: they're in Seattle playing for a nation for a NFC

799
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 1: title on the road instead of at home.

800
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:12,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, and just once again, if you're just blindly betting

801
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 3: this stuff, you should be blindly betting Denver and you

802
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,839
Speaker 3: should be blindly betting the Seahawks. And if you want

803
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:19,319
Speaker 3: to play, it's super safe, you can go with the

804
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 3: money line. But it's like I'm saying, it's the Rams

805
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 3: are an impossible spot. If you're betting the Rams, you

806
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 3: are betting on a twenty five chance of winning type

807
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:29,719
Speaker 3: of spot. That's how bad the spot is. And again

808
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 3: it's all about the rest. And this is their third

809
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 3: straight road game, giving those numbers, third trade road game.

810
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 3: If you're the underdog, nine and twenty eight straight up,

811
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 3: so twenty four percent historically.

812
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 2: So here's the question.

813
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 3: It's impossible. It's an impossibly brutal spot for the Rams.

814
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 3: Can they do it? Of course, I'm just telling you

815
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 3: in your lifetime the next fifty years, if you continually

816
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 3: bet the Rams side, you're the sucker they're getting well.

817
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 1: So that's that's the answer to my question, which is,

818
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 1: as professionals, which do you give give more credence to

819
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 1: the spot or the matchup if all things are equal.

820
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 1: If the matchup is equal, let's say the matchup is

821
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 1: a little bit of an advantage for the Rams even

822
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 1: but the spot is horrendous.

823
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 2: Which do you give more weight.

824
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 3: To this time of year? Always the spot just because

825
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 3: I can't get over and how important those numbers are

826
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 3: where It's just like we dive so much into all

827
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 3: the matchups, all this other stuff. For the end of

828
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 3: the day, it's like, can these guys' bodies hold up

829
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 3: heading to the fourth quarter? Like you still have your

830
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 3: legs underneath you? Because these guys again, well Devontae Adams

831
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 3: still have his legs. Yeah, he set out for three

832
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 3: four weeks with an injury. I'm talking about their left

833
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 3: guard who hasn't playing now for twenty straight weeks. Like,

834
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 3: I just think about all that he's gone through. Now

835
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 3: he's going against the possibly the best d line of

836
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 3: football who's rested. So that's what I mean. That's why

837
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 3: Trick keep trying to bring up these numbers because we're

838
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 3: trying to find an edge here. I'm trying to find

839
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 3: something to lead people to one side, and it's like

840
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 3: like we're talking about here the numbers are so close

841
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 3: on the field, the matchups so close, you have to

842
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 3: go find other areas where where is the advantage for

843
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 3: which team? The rest advantage is so heavily skewed to

844
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:19,239
Speaker 3: the Seahawks team. That's why I just I keep beating

845
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:20,879
Speaker 3: people over the head with it, because it's like, I'm

846
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 3: like Chad right away, I thought I'd be over the

847
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 3: Rams team. The more I've dove into it, it's like, Man,

848
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,520
Speaker 3: this this Seahawks team, the NFL is really just like

849
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 3: the Patriots, right, the Patriots at easy schedule. The Seahawks

850
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 3: they earned that right to have an easy run in

851
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 3: the playoffs, right, They earned that right for that one

852
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,759
Speaker 3: seed to have this rest advantage, and they're going to

853
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:40,959
Speaker 3: exploit it here, which to me is such a big deal,

854
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 3: such a such.

855
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 1: An interesting game, such an interesting game. I don't know

856
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:49,240
Speaker 1: what we're going to do in the contest at this point.

857
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a late Sunday selection. Simon,

858
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,919
Speaker 1: what's your biggest bet here this week?

859
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:57,800
Speaker 2: Pull up pants and be a man.

860
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, Denver, no doubt. That's That's all my money so

861
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 3: far as I've been into it.

862
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:06,960
Speaker 2: Denver was the syber area of the NFL. The Broncos

863
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 2: was so terrible that the team was exiled by the

864
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:13,879
Speaker 2: media and the players became prisoners in Pro Football's wasteland.

865
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,399
Speaker 3: You know, I touched the Seahawks at two and a half,

866
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 3: but I'm just trying to be patient, hoping the pros

867
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 3: do come in and maybe I do get one and

868
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 3: a half. And people are like, wouldn't that scary? Off? Honestly, wouldn't.

869
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 3: Like the playoffs. It's so unique where there's only two games.

870
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:30,719
Speaker 3: It's like, you know, heavy respective money coming on one side.

871
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 3: It's not that scary in the sense that if I'm

872
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 3: getting at Ben Rumer, I believe in that side, I'll

873
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 3: take it. And if anything, if you're betting huge, huge

874
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 3: money here, I would just play it saf like I

875
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 3: did with the Patriots. I just took the money line

876
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 3: last week with the Patriots. I do the same with

877
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 3: the Seahawks here, Like, could this game land on the one? Yeah?

878
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 3: I just told you they played two games this year

879
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 3: and it's been a two point and a one point

880
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:54,920
Speaker 3: victory by both teams. Like it's split between them. No

881
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:56,840
Speaker 3: one would be shocked if this number lands run on

882
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 3: the two. Right, We've talked all the time. Two has

883
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 3: become such a sharp number in the lands on it

884
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 3: all the time. So if you're betting actually heavy money

885
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 3: here and you're you're a little scared off by the

886
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 3: spread new issue doing the moneyless yos, that's probably end

887
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 3: up doing. And uh yeah for for the you know,

888
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:15,439
Speaker 3: sides and totals for first halfs and different things like that.

889
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 3: You know, I've leaned into a little bit of the

890
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:22,439
Speaker 3: Patriots first half just in case Stidham has a little

891
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:25,759
Speaker 3: bit of the Jitters. And we've seen Drake May you know,

892
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 3: he has in the playoffs played much better in the

893
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:29,799
Speaker 3: second half, but as a team, the Patriots have played

894
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 3: much better, I think in the first half. So yeah,

895
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 3: if you if you don't want to take a sider

896
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:35,919
Speaker 3: or a total that we're given out for full game.

897
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:38,880
Speaker 3: I don't hate taking Patriots first half, but obviously to

898
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 3: me that that's one tenth of what I'm betting on

899
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:42,399
Speaker 3: Denver full game.

900
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,719
Speaker 1: Uh, let's do a quick uh quick read from our

901
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:49,000
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902
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903
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 2: I've been using it a bunch these past couple of days.

904
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:59,239
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905
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:02,520
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911
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:15,759
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00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:25,680
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921
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:42,799
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928
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:04,320
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929
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930
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Speaker 2: Terms and conditions apply.

931
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:11,279
Speaker 1: Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight three three

932
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:13,880
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933
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:16,840
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934
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:20,080
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935
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 1: gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.

936
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 2: It's time to do some sharp versus square. Well, before

937
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 2: we get to that, Oh yeah.

938
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:34,399
Speaker 3: Sure, could I talk about the gambling loss tax bill

939
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 3: that's going on right now? Of course, so unfortunately, if

940
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 3: you haven't been keeping up for it, if we're gonna

941
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 3: have to pay losses on our our we're gonna to

942
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 3: pay tax on our losses upcoming year. And they've they've

943
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:47,839
Speaker 3: been trying to pass bills now to go against it.

944
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 3: And basically the one hundred percent gambling loss tax deduction

945
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 3: was blocked today unfortunately by the House Committee, which does suck,

946
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 3: but it's it's something that if you're into this stuff

947
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 3: and like me, you care about because it does affect

948
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:06,240
Speaker 3: our livelihood. The block without the vote issue, it usually

949
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 3: isn't policy, it's usually the process. So it's not totally

950
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 3: dead here. The bill is not totally dead in my opinion.

951
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 3: If both parties support it, maybe we could find another way.

952
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 3: But it's it's not something you can totally give up on. Yet.

953
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:21,319
Speaker 3: It did hit the floor today, right it did not

954
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 3: go through.

955
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 1: But.

956
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:27,240
Speaker 3: Obviously it's something very important to me, not just professional betters,

957
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 3: poker players, everybody that has a life in this world,

958
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 3: the general public. I'm telling you next year, come tax season,

959
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 3: you are going to lose your mind. We have to

960
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:37,359
Speaker 3: pay ten percent on your loss. So I just want

961
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:38,400
Speaker 3: to keep people up to there. I know we have

962
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:42,600
Speaker 3: cou people ask about it. Unfortunately, it didn't didn't work

963
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 3: out today, but something I will keep bringing up and

964
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 3: keep monitoring as we go along here. Right now, I

965
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:49,280
Speaker 3: think the policy. They don't like the way it was written.

966
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:51,759
Speaker 3: Like I said, it's not dead, people, it's just it

967
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 3: didn't go through today obviously, and it didn't get didn't

968
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 3: get shut down either. It's just it's kind of been limbo.

969
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:59,319
Speaker 2: Look, there's a lot going on in the betting world.

970
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 1: We try to be pretty focused during the season just

971
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 1: because there's so much to talk about with who we're

972
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 1: going to bet on, and we know that's an exciting

973
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:12,279
Speaker 1: part of why people are coming to the show. But

974
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 1: between what's happening with prediction markets, what's happening legally with

975
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:25,320
Speaker 1: laws like this, what's happening with increased scrutiny on game fixing,

976
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:29,200
Speaker 1: the scandals in college basketball, There's so much going on

977
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 1: in this space that is fascinating. Obviously, I've been working

978
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:36,399
Speaker 1: on a book about this for a little for about

979
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 1: a year, so I have a lot of thoughts on

980
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:40,080
Speaker 1: this and a lot of details and a lot of research,

981
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 1: and once we get to the off season, we're going

982
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 1: to dig in on a lot of these a lot

983
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:50,439
Speaker 1: of these other topics. Sharp versus Square, Simon, I feel

984
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 1: like I know what you want, and you've earned the

985
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 1: right to go first and make the first selection.

986
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 3: I do, But if you want to go ahead to head,

987
00:47:57,680 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 3: I'm also open to that. If you want to go

988
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 3: rams I guess see, I'm open to it. People know

989
00:48:02,320 --> 00:48:02,960
Speaker 3: I love Denver.

990
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:05,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just having such a hard time with the Rams,

991
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:07,919
Speaker 1: Like I don't know if I'm committed to them yet,

992
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 1: Like I.

993
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:11,360
Speaker 3: Would you want to take Denver, then then I take the Seahawks.

994
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:12,320
Speaker 3: If you're feeling good about.

995
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:15,280
Speaker 2: Denver, Okay, I'll take Denver. I mean, if you feel

996
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 2: that good.

997
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 1: But this also puts us in a in a box

998
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 1: because what if comes Sunday we decide Wait a second,

999
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:22,799
Speaker 1: we're taking the Rams, and then I don't care.

1000
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 3: First square, that'd be on me. But again, I like,

1001
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 3: I'm comfortable enough to put the Seahawks here. I know

1002
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:32,360
Speaker 3: you're waiving a little bit of the totals, so it's like,

1003
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 3: you know, I'm not going to force you. I mean,

1004
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 3: if you want to feel good about the total of

1005
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:39,479
Speaker 3: doctor Nick, he's on the over in this Rams Seahawks game.

1006
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:40,800
Speaker 2: Oh that's interesting.

1007
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 1: I feel like I want to take Troy Franklin anytime

1008
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 1: touchdown prov.

1009
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 3: For Sharper square Maybe all right, that's ballsy. If you're

1010
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:56,399
Speaker 3: doing that, then I'm going to take Denver. I've said it, like, Denver,

1011
00:48:58,840 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 3: make your decision.

1012
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:06,759
Speaker 2: Let's go. Jared's did him over pass attempts.

1013
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 3: For your sharper square. Yeah, you don't even have a

1014
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:09,840
Speaker 3: number that you're just gonna throw it out there.

1015
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:13,080
Speaker 2: Thirty one and a half, all right, all.

1016
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:16,280
Speaker 3: Right, I'm taking I'm taking Denver plus four and a half. Okay,

1017
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 3: doubling down.

1018
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:20,800
Speaker 2: All right, Denver plus four and a half. What's our parlay?

1019
00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I like where you're at. I mean like

1020
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,319
Speaker 3: we're both at with a Franklin. Anytime touchdown like a

1021
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 3: Denver plus four and a half, anytime touchdown with Franklin,

1022
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:36,120
Speaker 3: that's gonna be crazy good odds. I can, I can

1023
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 3: put that in real quick, in the hard.

1024
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 2: I love that idea.

1025
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 3: But that's a really fun parlay for the first game.

1026
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:47,040
Speaker 3: And if you don't trust Franklin like us Jesus are

1027
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 3: your friends, you don't have to do the whole thing

1028
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 3: because you don't want to pay minus one twenty. But

1029
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 3: if you want to take Denver up three points seven

1030
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 3: and a half, take the total down three points a

1031
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 3: thirty nine and a half, don't hate that either. As

1032
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 3: a fun parlay. It's you're getting two key number. You're

1033
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:02,320
Speaker 3: getting the seven a half, you're getting under the forty.

1034
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 3: Both both are fun to me for parlays for that game.

1035
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:07,320
Speaker 2: Let's do the Franklin.

1036
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:09,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love Franklin. I love that you're in on it.

1037
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 3: It's it's a funny little thing when someone broke it

1038
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 3: down to me. It's like, Hey, I've been watching a

1039
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:15,840
Speaker 3: lot of cinem tape here and it's a lot of

1040
00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:17,839
Speaker 3: Franklin in these tapes, and it's like, hey, that's a

1041
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:20,840
Speaker 3: that's a fun point the guys. That's more six touchdown

1042
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,719
Speaker 3: receptions this year, so he's clearly a guy they look

1043
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:24,799
Speaker 3: for in the red zone.

1044
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:25,560
Speaker 2: All right.

1045
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:28,800
Speaker 1: This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.

1046
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 1: We will be back on Sunday morning with the official

1047
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:33,359
Speaker 1: picks our Brass Balls so much more.

1048
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:36,439
Speaker 2: Watch or listen on YouTube a Sharper Square like this video.

1049
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:37,360
Speaker 2: Subscribe to the channel.

1050
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:39,799
Speaker 1: Also download with some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get

1051
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 1: your pods.

1052
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 2: Rate review, subscribe. We was five stars.

1053
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:45,680
Speaker 1: Say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift until next time.

1054
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 2: Love you. The road to the super Bowl is like

1055
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 2: a mythic quest.

1056
00:50:51,840 --> 00:51:00,080
Speaker 3: It's a demanding journey, an adventure that creates heroes and