1 00:00:00,520 --> 00:00:03,320 Speaker 1: It was critical to reach an agreement, and it's very 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: good news for the American people. No one got everything 3 00:00:07,040 --> 00:00:09,560 Speaker 1: they wanted, but the American people got what they needed. 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: We averted an economic crisis, an economic collapse. We're cutting 5 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: spending and bringing the deficits down at the same time. 6 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,079 Speaker 2: It's the big take. I'm Nancy cook in for West 7 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 2: Kosova today. The debt crisis was narrowly averted. But is 8 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 2: compromise still a dirty word in Washington? 9 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 3: Yeahs are three fourteen and now he's are one seventeen. 10 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 4: The bill has passed. 11 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 5: Everyone in America. 12 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 6: I will never give up on you. 13 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 5: It wasn't an easy fight. I had people on both 14 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 5: sides upset, but I was focused on you. 15 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 4: I am pleased, so pleased to announce that both sides 16 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 4: have just locked in an agreement that enables the Senate 17 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 4: to pass legislation tonight, avoiding default. 18 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: We've told the days of bipartisans were over and the 19 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 1: Democrats and republic Who can no longer work together. But 20 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 1: I refuse to believe that, because America can never give 21 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:23,839 Speaker 1: into that way of thinking. 22 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 2: The month's long fight of eraising the debt ceiling is 23 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:31,199 Speaker 2: finally over. That means the threat of the US defaulting 24 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 2: on its debts and the resulting economic crisis is off 25 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 2: the table at least for the next two years. Now, 26 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 2: both parties are going to try to take credit for. 27 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 7: The deal they avoided disaster. You usually don't get rewarded 28 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 7: for avoiding disaster. 29 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 6: I don't think because Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy had 30 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 6: this Kumbaya moment that all of a sudden, you're going 31 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 6: to see this come to Jesus moment in the twenty 32 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 6: twenty four campaign. 33 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 2: Congressional reporter Stephen Dennis and White House reporter Jordan Fabian 34 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:01,919 Speaker 2: are here. They're going to tell us what the final 35 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 2: agreement says and the impact it'll have. Stephen, So, the 36 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 2: House in the Senate voted on a deal to raise 37 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 2: the debt ceiling. Let's start with a quick refresher. What 38 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 2: actually is the debt ceiling and why have we started 39 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 2: hearing so much about it in recent years? 40 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, the dead ceiling started in nineteen seventeen, 41 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 7: and it was actually a way to make it easier 42 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 7: to borrow money. Before then, Congress had to pass a 43 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 7: build for every bond issue every time they wanted to 44 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 7: raise money to have a war, they would have to 45 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,799 Speaker 7: get together and pass a single you know, have another 46 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 7: vote now. Over time, starting in nineteen fifty three, it 47 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 7: started to become a weapon on Capitol Hill. You started 48 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 7: to have these big fights over things like building the 49 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 7: National Highway System, et cetera. And then twenty eleven was 50 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 7: really the biggest fight, you know, certainly in the past 51 00:02:56,560 --> 00:03:00,959 Speaker 7: twenty five years, where the new House for publican majority. 52 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 7: Back then, during Obama's era, they were intent to enforcing 53 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,799 Speaker 7: big spending cuts and they got them. 54 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 8: And I want to announce that the leaders of both 55 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 8: parties in both chambers have reached an agreement that will 56 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:18,079 Speaker 8: reduce the deficit and avoid default, a default that would 57 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 8: have had a devastating effect on our economy. 58 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 7: You know, they held the dead limit hostage, and Barack 59 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 7: Obama decided to agree to two trillion dollars in spending 60 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 7: cuts over a decade in return for a couple trillion 61 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 7: in debt limit increases. And you know, the Republicans looked 62 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 7: at that and said, hey, pretty good model for the future. 63 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 7: Let's do that again. And that's what this year was 64 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 7: all about. And they weren't quiet about this. You know, 65 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 7: we started writing about this and reporting it before the election, 66 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 7: Kevin McCarthy said, I'm going to do this, and the 67 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 7: Democrats were unable to take it off the table. They 68 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 7: actually had the power. If all the Democrats had voted 69 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 7: last year, they could have done this on their own. 70 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 7: They didn't do that, so you were left with this 71 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 7: hostage situation that you could see like a slow moving 72 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 7: freight train, you know, really months and months ago, if 73 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 7: not years ago. 74 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 2: So that's a good point to I think, actually dive 75 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 2: into the deal. Jordan, Can you tell me a little 76 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 2: bit about what's actually in there. 77 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 6: So the headline is that they're suspending the debt ceiling 78 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 6: until January first, twenty twenty five, in exchange for mandatory 79 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 6: spending caps on both defense and domestic spending into twenty 80 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 6: twenty five, so for the next two fiscal years there'll 81 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 6: be limits on that spending. There are some other provisions 82 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 6: like new work requirements for certain older people who have 83 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 6: food stamp benefits and other public benefits, and there's some 84 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 6: easing of energy projects for permitting. So those are kind 85 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 6: of the broad outlines of this agreement. It's interesting because 86 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 6: the top line number this reduce spending of one point 87 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 6: five to two trillion dollars over a decade. This deal, 88 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 6: I think Biden really got the best of them on 89 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 6: the length of the spending caps and the severity of them. 90 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 6: There were some automatic spending cuts across the board that 91 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 6: were triggered under the deal that President Obama had with 92 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 6: Republicans ten years ago. These spending caps are only for 93 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 6: the next two years, so if President Biden wins reelection, 94 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 6: he will be able to budget relatively unconstrained, of of 95 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 6: course depending on the makeup of Congress, but facing less 96 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 6: spending constraints than President Obama did, and that would in 97 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 6: theory help him accomplish more on his domestic agenda in 98 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 6: the second term. 99 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 2: And Steve what ended up not being in the deal. 100 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, if you look at the original House 101 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 7: bill had almost five trillion dollars in real deficit cuts. 102 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 7: It would have canceled the student loan relief that's before 103 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 7: the Supreme Court. It would have undone most of the 104 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 7: climate tax credits, things like ev tax credits that are 105 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 7: pretty big deal right now because you're seeing battery factories 106 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 7: all over being built right now. It would have rolled 107 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 7: back a lot of his agenda for the past two years. 108 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 7: It also would have had much deeper spending cuts a 109 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 7: ford and with ten years of enforceable caps. You know, 110 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 7: if you have ten years of enforceable caps, that banks 111 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 7: leverage not just for the next year or the next 112 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 7: two years, but year three, year four, year five. And 113 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 7: so that's where the White House really you know, if 114 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:36,359 Speaker 7: you dig into the details of the deal. But Kevin 115 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 7: McCarthy really wanted and you know, he had to claim 116 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 7: a win. He was a news speaker with a very 117 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 7: tenuous majority, with a right flank that is sort of 118 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 7: out for his scavel, and he needed to get a. 119 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 6: Win now on record. 120 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 5: So they can't sit there and yell, this isn't good. 121 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 4: So I'll bring something back tomorrow. 122 00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 5: Let's get the rest of the iras sag, Let's get 123 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 5: the rest of the work with let's cut more because 124 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:03,119 Speaker 5: we are in a big debt. 125 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 6: This is fabulous. 126 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 5: This is one of the best nights I've ever been here. 127 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:08,359 Speaker 6: I thought it would be hard. 128 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 5: I thought it'd be almost impossible just to get to 129 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 5: two eighteen. Now I found there's a whole new day here. 130 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 7: So I think from the perspective, if you're like a 131 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 7: typical American and you're wondering, how is this going to 132 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 7: affect me? There really isn't a whole lot in here 133 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 7: that you can guarantee is going to affect you. This 134 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 7: is about an outline for future spending fights. It's a 135 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 7: top line number that the appropriators are going to have 136 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 7: to fill in between the lines. So it says, you know, 137 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:37,559 Speaker 7: we're going to have six hundred and thirty seven billion 138 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 7: in domestic discretionary funding after all of the gimmicks are 139 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 7: added back in. That means it's roughly flat, but roughly 140 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 7: flat for the entire domestic agenda. You know, how much 141 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 7: is going to go to the Department of Justice. We 142 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 7: won't know until September or December. How much is going 143 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 7: to go four meals on wheels, you know, all these 144 00:07:56,400 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 7: government programs, the entire alphabet soup of agencies. Their lobbyists 145 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 7: are going to be on Capitol Hill trying to plus 146 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 7: up that spending. And there is a provision in here 147 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 7: that is very interesting and new, and that is if 148 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 7: they do not have a deal by January first, and 149 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 7: they have something called a continuing resolution, which is just 150 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 7: sort of a stop gap to keep the government open 151 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 7: and not have a shutdown that if they do that, 152 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 7: there would be an additional across the board one percent cut. 153 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 7: But this is something that really potentially brings the two 154 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 7: parties together because they each have priorities they want in 155 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 7: these bills. You have to pass all twelve bills to 156 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:43,559 Speaker 7: avoid this cut. And the thing about this cut is 157 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 7: it really hurts Republicans more than Democrats. It really cuts 158 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:50,679 Speaker 7: defense by about four and a half percent from the 159 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 7: caps that they agreed to, and it actually doesn't really 160 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 7: cut non defense discretionary. So all the pressure is on 161 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 7: the Republicans to cut a deal before the end of 162 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 7: the year or else their priorities get cut. That's the 163 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:03,439 Speaker 7: way to look at it. 164 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,679 Speaker 2: So just so I'm clear, it doesn't actually cut spending 165 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 2: from where it is today, Is that right, Jordan? It 166 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 2: just means that they won't spend as much in the future. 167 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, it really holds spending levels at current levels rather 168 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 6: than forces a cut. 169 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 7: I mean, I think there's there's sort of like a 170 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:25,719 Speaker 7: raw twelve billion dollar cut, but that's really undermined by 171 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 7: a lot of side deals that include things like rescinding 172 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 7: COVID money and rescinding some of the IRS money in 173 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 7: the future. To pay for money now. So on the 174 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 7: top line, you can say it's a cut, but I 175 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 7: think everybody should have very, very healthy dotha skepticism that 176 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 7: any of these caps are going to hold even to 177 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:51,080 Speaker 7: the end of the year. 178 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 6: Yeah, And like ste mentioned, the White House is indicated 179 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:58,680 Speaker 6: they're going to do some budget gimmicks to essentially keep 180 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 6: the spending level steady. And what we also saw in 181 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 6: the Senate was a lot of defense hawks very upset 182 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 6: about the level of defense spending that was including this deal, 183 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:11,679 Speaker 6: And there were assurances made that don't worry. If we 184 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:14,959 Speaker 6: need more spending for Ukraine or let's say we get 185 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 6: into you know, God forbid a conflict with China or 186 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 6: something like that where we would need to plus up 187 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 6: defense spending, that vote will happen. And so that cap, 188 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 6: at least on the defense side was kind of thrown 189 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 6: under an eighteen wheeler last night. 190 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 7: And it wasn't even defense. I mean, I spoke to 191 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 7: Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and it's clear to me that 192 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 7: this cap steal is irrelevant in the Senate. The Senate 193 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:46,959 Speaker 7: does not really plan to stick by these caps. They're 194 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 7: already talking about doing a big supplemental spending package to 195 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 7: include potentially Ukraine navy ships, dealing with China competition, China 196 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 7: competition bill, fentanyl, and any other national priority. Now, when 197 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 7: Chuck Schimmer said that on the Senate floor that they 198 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 7: stand ready to process any supplemental request, that was basically 199 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 7: a green light that the Senate is prepared to spend 200 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 7: all kinds of money way above these caps. These caps 201 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,839 Speaker 7: are only going to be as relevant as the House 202 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 7: majority and Kevin McCarthy want them to be. As far 203 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 7: as the House, it's not clear to me that there's 204 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:36,959 Speaker 7: really a huge desire to keep to these caps. Either. 205 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 7: They have their defense hawks who want to spend more money. 206 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,560 Speaker 7: They have folks who want to spend more money on 207 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 7: some domestic issues as well. I'm not sure they're going 208 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 7: to actually be able to pass a lot of their 209 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 7: bills keeping to these spending levels without a lot more gimmicks. 210 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 2: Jordan, I'm curious what was the most contentious part of 211 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 2: the deal. Maybe we could just say for both Republicans 212 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 2: and Demo crats. 213 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 6: For Democrats and Joe Biden, it was negotiating over the 214 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:09,359 Speaker 6: debt limit period. This is something that Joe Biden repeatedly 215 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 6: insisted he didn't want to do. 216 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 1: Well, you meet with McCarthy gard, but not on whether 217 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:22,359 Speaker 1: or not the death said that's not negotiable. 218 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:25,319 Speaker 6: In fact, the White House continues to insist that they 219 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:29,479 Speaker 6: did not negotiate over the debt limit, despite all indications 220 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 6: to the contrary. But as we discussed earlier, Joe Biden 221 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:37,199 Speaker 6: Democrats were very wary of setting this precedent where under 222 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 6: a Republican majorities in Congress, the debt limit gets held 223 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 6: hostage and used his leverage to extract policy demands and 224 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 6: I don't even want to say spending cuts, but policy 225 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,680 Speaker 6: demands of the Republican majority. They wanted to do away 226 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 6: with that. The reality is that Joe Biden was forced 227 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 6: to sit down and negotiate over the debt limit. And 228 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 6: Kevin McCarthy showed that despite his rest of caucus that 229 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 6: for fifteen ballots before he became speaker, he was able 230 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 6: to marshal enough support the two third support of his 231 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 6: conference to get behind a bipartisan deal with the Democratic president. Now, 232 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:13,839 Speaker 6: for Republicans, one might say that they did not accomplish 233 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 6: nearly as much as they wanted to in this hostage situation. 234 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 6: They got, as we've talked about very soft spending caps. Really, 235 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:27,760 Speaker 6: if the goal was deficit reduction, it's not going to 236 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 6: reduce the deficit by much at all. The bottom line 237 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,840 Speaker 6: is that if you look at the bill that Reps 238 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 6: Republicans initially passed, much deeper spending cuts, much bigger changes 239 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 6: to the titlement programs, repealing Joe Biden's first term agenda, 240 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 6: they did not get nearly any of that. And that's 241 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 6: why you saw a lot of House Conservatives very upset, 242 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 6: and also some center Republicans very upset to the extent 243 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:57,839 Speaker 6: that a lot of them, the majority of cenerate Republicans, 244 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 6: did not vote for this agreement. They don't think that 245 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:04,720 Speaker 6: Kevin McCarthy got enough in exchange for raising the debt limit, 246 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 6: essentially ticking this issue beyond the presidential election. They will 247 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 6: not have another bite at the apple here before a 248 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 6: president Biden goes back to voters and asks for a 249 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 6: second term. 250 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 7: And one thing that I think is important to sort 251 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 7: of put in perspective when you hear the numbers one 252 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 7: and a half trillion or two trillion over ten years. 253 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 7: Before this deal, we were on track to spend eighty 254 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 7: trillion and have sixty trillion in revenue and a twenty 255 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 7: trillion dollar deficit. So our debt is on track to 256 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 7: go up twenty trillion before the deal. After the deal, 257 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 7: if you believe they'll stick to the spending caps, and 258 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 7: I think there are very few senators at least that 259 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 7: think they will actually stick to these spending caps. You 260 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 7: are going to spend seventy eight and a half trillion 261 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 7: according to CBO. So does that change the trajectory of 262 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 7: the national finances a little bit? But if you just 263 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 7: look at the two years, the final two years of 264 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 7: Biden's presidency, the spending cuts are about two hundred billion dollars, 265 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 7: not counting all the gimmicks. I think they're going to 266 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 7: be very lucky to get through the next two years 267 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 7: without spending two hundred billion dollars on other things like 268 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 7: disasters in Ukraine and all the rest. 269 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 2: After the break what the deal says about the state 270 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 2: of getting things done in Washington. So Jordan, President Biden 271 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 2: said at the start of this that he would not 272 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 2: negotiate on the debt ceiling, but he wound up doing that. 273 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:41,239 Speaker 2: What made him change his mind. 274 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 6: The prospect of a recession triggered by a first ever 275 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 6: default on the US debt was too big of a 276 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 6: risk for Joe Biden to take in sitting out a 277 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 6: negotiation and essentially leaving it to chance. He felt that 278 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 6: he needed to get a deal done and take the 279 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 6: possibility of a default off the table. He did not 280 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 6: want number one, a recession to hit the US economy 281 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 6: right now, and number two, especially at a time when 282 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 6: he's looking to ramp up his reelection campaign. If history 283 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 6: shows presidents running for reelection during times of recession usually lose, 284 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 6: and so he did not want an additional variable inserted 285 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:23,720 Speaker 6: into that race. He's already facing a lot of tough 286 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 6: questions about his age and his fitness for office, and 287 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 6: also how whether his record is breaking through to the 288 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 6: American people that there's just a very sour mood in 289 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 6: the country right now. He did not need a recession 290 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 6: on top of that. So ultimately, the political calculus pointed 291 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 6: to Biden eventually sitting down with Republicans and hammering out 292 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 6: a deal. 293 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 2: Now, Jordan, what a progressive think about this deal? Because 294 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,760 Speaker 2: it claws back some money for IRS funding, it imposes 295 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 2: some work requirements for adults to get food stamps. I 296 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 2: can't imagine that progressives are really jazzed about that. 297 00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 6: They're not Nancy upset about all the provisions you just listed. 298 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 6: And while President Biden did well in attracting majorities of 299 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:11,160 Speaker 6: Democrats in both the House and the Senate to vote 300 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 6: for this deal, a lot of them did so reluctantly. 301 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 6: And one thing to look out for as Joe Biden 302 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:21,880 Speaker 6: ramps up his re election campaign here is how enthusiastic 303 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 6: support will he be receiving from those progressives and from 304 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:28,879 Speaker 6: voters of color and other people who might not like 305 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 6: what's in this deal. I will say there was not 306 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 6: a full on revolt against this deal, as indicated by 307 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 6: the vote count. Joe Biden did sort of swat off 308 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 6: some of the more extreme things Republicans wanted, scrapping a 309 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 6: lot of environmental protections for energy permitting, also repealing his 310 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:52,160 Speaker 6: Inflation Reduction Act the climate and health provisions of that bill. 311 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 6: But he's already facing an enthusiasm deficit with a lot 312 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 6: of the voters who helped elect him to office in 313 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 6: twenty twenty. He needs those people to be motivated to 314 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 6: vote for him again in twenty twenty four. 315 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 2: Right, I mean they got a deal. They averted defaulting 316 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,439 Speaker 2: which is a good thing. But Stephen, did either side 317 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 2: really get a lot of political capital out of this deal? 318 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:15,959 Speaker 2: Out of this compromise? 319 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,360 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think it's you know, it's a mixed picture. 320 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,680 Speaker 7: I think the Republican Party is a little bit divided 321 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:26,399 Speaker 7: right now, particularly in the House, over wishing they had 322 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 7: gotten a better deal. 323 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 3: Not one Republican should vote for this deal. It is 324 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 3: a bad deal. No one sent us here to borrow 325 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:43,680 Speaker 3: an additional four trillion dollars to get absolutely nothing in return. 326 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 7: You know, there are some House members talking about trying 327 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 7: to oust the speaker. They do not have the votes 328 00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 7: who elect a new speaker, So you know, usually when 329 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 7: you're trying to oust somebody, there's a reason why there 330 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 7: hasn't been a roll call vote on ousing a speaker 331 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,480 Speaker 7: since nineteen ten, and in that vote failed. You know, 332 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 7: it's hard to go after the king, as they say, 333 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 7: and normally when you're going after the king, you don't 334 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 7: want to miss So some of these folks, any one 335 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:17,359 Speaker 7: House member can force a vote. But from our reporting 336 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,719 Speaker 7: talking to a lot of Democrats, people like Stenny Hoyer, 337 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 7: they're prepared, and there are Democrats who are openly talking 338 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:32,400 Speaker 7: about keeping speaker McCarthy in his job if his right 339 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 7: flank tries to oust him. A small band of fifteen 340 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 7: or twenty on the Senate side, they were mostly irrelevant 341 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:42,879 Speaker 7: to this process. I think one of the things that 342 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 7: was going on in the Senate and why Chuck Schumer 343 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:48,360 Speaker 7: was willing to be irrelevant to this process, I think 344 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,919 Speaker 7: he was most focused on preventing a default. And I 345 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 7: think the second thing is he wanted to protect his members. 346 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:58,360 Speaker 7: If you look at the Senate map next year, there 347 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 7: are many many Moremocrats up for reelection than Republicans, and 348 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:06,160 Speaker 7: the debt limit is kind of politically toxic. So they 349 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 7: wanted to have a bipartisan deal. That was one of 350 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,199 Speaker 7: the things that was I think in the calculus and 351 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,920 Speaker 7: why they didn't do it last year is they didn't 352 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 7: want to own the debt limit all by themselves. They 353 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 7: wanted Republican cover and so they got that. 354 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point about the Senate map, Jordan. 355 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 2: I'm curious, just like from thirty thousand foot, what does 356 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,439 Speaker 2: this say about what Ken and Kent get done in 357 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:28,920 Speaker 2: Washington moving forward? 358 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 6: So I think it's a mixed picture. On one hand, 359 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 6: you had President Biden promise when he ran for the 360 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:39,439 Speaker 6: presidency in twenty twenty that Republicans would have an epiphany 361 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 6: in the post Trump era and then start to work 362 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 6: with Democrats. 363 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 4: Again. 364 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 6: A lot of people laughed him off, but if you 365 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 6: look at his record, he actually now does have a 366 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,399 Speaker 6: number of examples he can point to to tell his 367 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,400 Speaker 6: doubters that he was actually right. There was this debt 368 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 6: limit deal. You look at the bipartisan infrastructure bill that 369 00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:00,199 Speaker 6: he got passed during the last couple of years, So 370 00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,159 Speaker 6: he did get a small but in significant piece of 371 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 6: gun control legislation through with bipartisan support. So he can 372 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 6: go to voters in twenty twenty four and say, look, 373 00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 6: I can get things done. I know how to work 374 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:16,920 Speaker 6: with Republicans despite the hyperpartisanship that exists in this country. 375 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,160 Speaker 6: But on the flip side, you look at this deal 376 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 6: and frankly, it's kind of small fries. It's not like 377 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:26,640 Speaker 6: we're accomplishing something major here. It's really staving off a disaster. 378 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 2: I mean really, and just interject, it's also paying bills 379 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:31,399 Speaker 2: on money we already. 380 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 6: Spent exactly, So it's not like we're passing some sort 381 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 6: of major new initiative here. It's again just making sure 382 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 6: the country doesn't blow up, And so should we really 383 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,880 Speaker 6: be patting ourselves on the back over that. Should Joe 384 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 6: Biden and Kevin McCarthy be patting themselves on the back 385 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,199 Speaker 6: over that? Probably not, but they're going to do it anyway. 386 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 7: I mean, I do think that one thing that this 387 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 7: deal sort of demonstrated is that the era of big 388 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 7: expansions of government in the safety net are basically over. 389 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 7: You're going to be doing more small ball kinds of deals. 390 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 7: But there are a couple of green shoots that I 391 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,639 Speaker 7: think you can take from this. One is on the 392 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,680 Speaker 7: permitting side. They got sort of a baby permitting deal 393 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,480 Speaker 7: in here where the Democrats got some speeding up of 394 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 7: permitting for grain energy projects in return for some speeding 395 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 7: up of fossil fuels as well. There is a major 396 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 7: bipartisan negotiation on permitting that could be the most significant 397 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 7: thing that actually happens this year where both sides want something. 398 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:37,000 Speaker 7: If you look at that Inflation Reduction Act, all those 399 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 7: solar plants and wind farms that are being built, they 400 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:44,640 Speaker 7: need transmission lines to be relevant and to have more 401 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 7: of them built. That's something to watch. Another thing that's 402 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 7: sort of something to watch is China. There is a 403 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 7: committee in the House bipartisan set up by Kevin McCarthy. 404 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:59,160 Speaker 7: He wants to have a big bipartisan legislation on competing 405 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 7: with China, and the Democrats and the Senate also want 406 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,160 Speaker 7: to do something there, and so does the White House. 407 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,239 Speaker 7: I think that that's something that just watch, especially if 408 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,960 Speaker 7: things heat up over Taiwan. Now, is that going to be, 409 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 7: you know, an Obamacare style legacy program accomplishment. No, but 410 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,800 Speaker 7: in a divided government, it's the kind of thing that 411 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 7: you can get done that could be pretty significant. 412 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 2: When we come back how the debt ceiling deal will 413 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:45,919 Speaker 2: affect the twenty twenty four campaign trail and future debt negotiations. So, Jordan, 414 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 2: I'm curious how this debt deal will impact the economy 415 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 2: more broadly, both short term and then just some longer term. 416 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,640 Speaker 6: Most projections say that this is not going to have 417 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,919 Speaker 6: a tremendous effect on the economy. I believe there was 418 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 6: a Morgan Stanley estimate that showed that it might shave 419 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,679 Speaker 6: a couple of hundreds of a percentage point off the 420 00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 6: GDP for next year. But as we discussed, the spending 421 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 6: cuts are really not that significant. I mean, they are 422 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 6: significant politically, but economically it's it's just not that much, 423 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,400 Speaker 6: and it doesn't it pales a comparison to the level 424 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 6: of spending cuts that were in the last debtlimit deal 425 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 6: in twenty eleven and twenty thirteen, which were pretty significant 426 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 6: across the board spending cuts. This deal, I think most 427 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 6: estimates say, is not going to have that kind of effect. 428 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 6: But there are other things in the economy, obviously inflation 429 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,920 Speaker 6: and just the overall risk environment that could point to 430 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,160 Speaker 6: a recession, perhaps closer to twenty twenty four. 431 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:46,760 Speaker 2: But the deal won't have anything to do with the recession. 432 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 6: It's hard to like predict one hundred percent, but likely not. 433 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,160 Speaker 7: Yeah. So we talked to one analyst who was like, look, 434 00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 7: if you total of the seventy billion cuts in this 435 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:57,600 Speaker 7: bill for the first year, that's about zero point three 436 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 7: percent of GDP. And he made the point a supporter 437 00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:02,920 Speaker 7: of the deal, he said, look, this could cut zero 438 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,359 Speaker 7: point two five percent maybe off of inflation. And the 439 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,240 Speaker 7: big difference between the economy of twenty eleven and the 440 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 7: economy of today is in twenty eleven, the refrain from 441 00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 7: House Republicans is where are the jobs? The unemployment rate 442 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 7: was still high. We were coming off the Great Recession, 443 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 7: and you know, they were cutting spending at a time 444 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 7: when the economy was really slow and coming back, we 445 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 7: have in some ways a roaring economy. For jobs, we 446 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 7: have one of the lowest unemployment rates on record. The 447 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 7: issue in the country has been more inflation, and so 448 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 7: there could be some benefits here if inflation gets curbed, 449 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 7: just even the tiniest bit going into next year without 450 00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 7: actually causing a recession. 451 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,200 Speaker 2: And how do you think that will affect the rhetoric 452 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,160 Speaker 2: on the campaign trail in twenty twenty four. 453 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 6: I don't think because Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy had 454 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,359 Speaker 6: this Kumbaya moment that all of a sudden, you're going 455 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,439 Speaker 6: to see this, you know, come to Jesus moment in 456 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 6: the twenty twenty four campaign, and all the heated political 457 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 6: rhetoric we've seen for the past decade plus is going 458 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 6: to subside. 459 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,400 Speaker 5: American public think is wrong if we simply saying, let's 460 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,840 Speaker 5: spend what we spent five months ago. But every moment 461 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,920 Speaker 5: I've spent with the president, he doesn't want to go there. 462 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 5: He does not want to go back one dollar. 463 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,959 Speaker 6: It's going to be a bare knuckle election Joe Biden. 464 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:30,920 Speaker 6: If you looked at what he said during his twenty 465 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 6: twenty campaign, there were a lot of, you know, themes 466 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:35,600 Speaker 6: of unity that I could bring back this era of 467 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,959 Speaker 6: bipartisan cooperation, and this is only going to enhance that 468 00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 6: while also drawing a contrast with Trump or whomever else 469 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,239 Speaker 6: he might be running again. So I'm not sure that 470 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 6: it really changes the dynamics of the race that much. 471 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 7: I think I would discount the deal really impacting the election. 472 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,320 Speaker 7: Not getting a deal would have impacted the election. You know, 473 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:04,080 Speaker 7: they needed to avoid disaster. They avoided disaster. You usually 474 00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:07,439 Speaker 7: don't get rewarded for avoiding disaster, right people are focused 475 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 7: on the next thing, the kitchen table issue of the 476 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 7: fight next year. 477 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 2: So it sounds like Steven from what you're telling me, 478 00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:18,160 Speaker 2: voters you do not think will hold Washington politicians responsible 479 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 2: for getting this close to the deadline for the default. 480 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 7: I think it's it's very hard when the numbers get 481 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,960 Speaker 7: this big for a lot of voters to really get 482 00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:31,439 Speaker 7: a sense of how big the deficit is and what 483 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 7: it would mean if we stopped paying our bills. I 484 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,879 Speaker 7: do think if Kevin McCarthy and Joe Biden are in 485 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,159 Speaker 7: the same positions in a few years. Is there a 486 00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 7: prospect for a grand bargain that does look at this 487 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,640 Speaker 7: twenty trillion eighteen trillion that we're facing and deal with 488 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:50,040 Speaker 7: not just the discretionary side, but all these other programs 489 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 7: that are going to start running out of their trust 490 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 7: funds in the next five twelve years. 491 00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 2: Jordan, what are you watching next? Steven talked a little 492 00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:01,479 Speaker 2: bit what he is looking for. What about you. 493 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 6: I'm looking to see what happens with the debt limit. 494 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 6: This is something that is, as we've discussed, become extremely controversial, contentious, 495 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,440 Speaker 6: and a lot of people in Joe Biden's party want 496 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,119 Speaker 6: to get rid of the debt limit, and this is 497 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,639 Speaker 6: something that Joe Biden, traditionalists in the center for thirty 498 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 6: forty years, has been resistant to in the past. I'm 499 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 6: interested to see if this experience has changed his thinking. 500 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 6: He is indicated perhaps that he is open to either 501 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,920 Speaker 6: getting rid of it or lifting it on his own 502 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,160 Speaker 6: through the fourteenth Amendment, which is a It would be 503 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 6: a controversial and novel legal theory. Basically, you know, there's 504 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 6: language in the fourteenth Amendment saying that, you know, the 505 00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 6: US must pay its debts, and so there have been 506 00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 6: some folks on his side who have said, you can 507 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 6: take that use that authority to raise the debt limit 508 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 6: unilaterally as president, you wouldn't need Congress, you wouldn't need 509 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,120 Speaker 6: to go through this sort of negotiation. You could prevent 510 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 6: Republicans from taking the debt limit hostage. Does the President 511 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 6: express openness to that? Does he actually try and work 512 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:13,440 Speaker 6: with Democrats and perhap some Republicans to eliminate the dead ceiling, 513 00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 6: the statutory dead ceiling? 514 00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,680 Speaker 7: Yeah, I do think the fourteenth Amendment is I think 515 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:19,960 Speaker 7: it's very unlikely that he even goes that route because 516 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 7: he's facing the Supreme Court that is hostile to kind 517 00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 7: of novel legal theories that help Democrats. But the bigger 518 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 7: issue is the US Senate. It's very unlikely that the 519 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 7: Democrats have more than fifty or fifty one seats after 520 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 7: a very difficult map next year, and you need at 521 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 7: least fifty one who are going to fifty or fifty 522 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:43,360 Speaker 7: one who are going to agree to eliminate the dead 523 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:47,240 Speaker 7: limit entirely. I think it's very unlikely they need to 524 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:51,040 Speaker 7: get to something like fifty four or fifty five Senate seats, 525 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 7: so that you can find fifty one and have the 526 00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 7: house back to raise the dead ceiling unilaterally to some 527 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 7: astronomical number that it's a f actively repealed. That's the 528 00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,560 Speaker 7: way to do it. I think it's unlikely that happens 529 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:06,960 Speaker 7: anytime in the next few cycles. 530 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 2: Jordan Steven, thanks so much for joining us. 531 00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:10,960 Speaker 6: Thanks for having me on. 532 00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:15,480 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's absolutely fantastic. Let's do it again in two years. 533 00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to us here at The Big Take. 534 00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 2: It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more 535 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:27,600 Speaker 2: shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or 536 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,520 Speaker 2: wherever you listen, and we'd love to hear from you. 537 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:34,760 Speaker 2: Email us questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg 538 00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 2: dot Net. Our supervising producer is Vicky Vergalina. Our senior 539 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,120 Speaker 2: producer is Katherine Fink, and they both produce this episode. 540 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 2: Original music is by Leo Sidron. I'm Nancy cook in 541 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 2: for West Kasova. We'll be back tomorrow with another Big Take.