00:00:02 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 00:00:27 Speaker 2: Stephen Major is global macro advisor tradition. He is absolutely on the high ground of a broader disinflationary tendency. Stephen, thank you for your patience and waiting at the NATO meetings. Do we still have in place a disinflationary tendency or is it unanchored? 00:00:48 Speaker 3: Well, it looks from the basis of the break evens that there is the markets belief in disinflation, and clearly that's coming from the shop drop in an energy prices or at least from the oil price first of all. So that is disinflationary and it goes against the mainstream consensus view that was. 00:01:10 Speaker 4: For higher inflation. 00:01:12 Speaker 3: Now, I think that that's why it's so powerful for markets, Tom, because everyone was positioned for higher inflation and higher inflation risk premium, but you just don't see it happening that the market is going the other way. 00:01:24 Speaker 4: Now, I think that's interesting. 00:01:26 Speaker 3: Not everyone's agreeing with me, because what's happening is people are reading the higher nominal and real yields, which are a function of the dropping inflation expectations, and thinking that means the economy is going gangbusters what it might be, But that's not what the data is telling me. 00:01:45 Speaker 4: So it's a different story. I think. 00:01:48 Speaker 3: I think the market is calling out the consensus view that we have strong growth forever and ever. 00:01:54 Speaker 4: I mean, this is the heart of the matter. 00:01:55 Speaker 2: And I'm going to go to Jan Hatzias here at Golbyn Sachs, who's really established a disinflationary trend. What's the history of getting from Banana Republic nominal GDP and down to the disinflation that Stephen Major and Janahatzi as so comfortable with. 00:02:13 Speaker 4: Well, it's going to be a gentle transition. 00:02:15 Speaker 3: Tom, and I think that we're all conditioned around these kind of big bang sudden changes in market direction. But in fact it's happening very quietly under the hood, because if you look at nominal bond yields, not very much as happening, but you get so much more information by focusing on the real yield, The real yield has gone up because inflation expectations went down. Now, my point is the market is priced for a much higher neutral rate than we've had in previous cycles. So just no more hikes and then the possibility of some cuts later this year or next year is the engine behind a possible bond rally starting in the third or fourth quarter. 00:02:57 Speaker 5: Stephen we Ken came into twenty twenty six, and I think they can say this call was for a weaker US dollar. Then, of course the war with Iran erupted and that dynamic has changed. Here We've got a strengthening dollar here. How do you think about the currency markets here? Where do you see value? 00:03:15 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, we came into this year at one point priced for two or three cuts. 00:03:20 Speaker 4: We're now closer to one hike. 00:03:22 Speaker 3: So that's a four a four to twenty five basis point move, that's one hundred basis points. So the entire explanation of what's going on with bond yields is just down to market expectations. 00:03:32 Speaker 4: Around the FED. 00:03:33 Speaker 3: But people are dressing it up as if it's something else, something more structural. I don't buy the anti globalization or the dedollarization. 00:03:44 Speaker 4: Type of view. 00:03:45 Speaker 3: I think that one's been really. 00:03:50 Speaker 4: Checked out this year. 00:03:51 Speaker 3: Many people were expecting the dollar would suffer because some of the geopolitical events, some of the sanctions type of. 00:03:58 Speaker 4: Risk has been there this last few years. 00:04:00 Speaker 3: Maybe the oil price could be denominated in other currencies that then the dollar, But in fact I look at it and the data says dollar transactions are still strong. The majority of trade and transactions in security still goes through the dollar. So the dollar movement is at the moment quite cyclical and structurally strong. I would say that we might lose some of the cyclical support for the dollar in the second half, but the structural foundations isn't still very much in place. But I don't think I don't think there'll be a big move in the dollar. I think that you'll see a gradual decline in yields, But the dollars holding up pretty well. 00:04:40 Speaker 5: Stephen, in the global bond market, here where do you see the best value these days? 00:04:45 Speaker 3: Well, look, the cleanest way to express what's happened with real yields is just to buy the tips. Buy tips outright. In the five year part of the curve, those yields have been moving towards two percent. That's double most measures of fed neutral. A more sophisticated way of doing it is to position in the curve, so to own the bonds in the belly, which could be anywhere between five and ten, and just hold them out right. Or to sell the longer maturities, say out of thirty year and. 00:05:17 Speaker 4: Buy the five year. 00:05:19 Speaker 3: I think that there's value in those kind of trades. And by the way, for me to start recommending steepness. 00:05:25 Speaker 4: Is quite a big change. 00:05:27 Speaker 3: I genuinely don't like steepness as a trade, but I think the way that markets priced you are now paid for owning the belly of the curve. 00:05:35 Speaker 2: Stem major we got to run here, but you know, the basic ideas were really interested in price up, yield down. In all that. What happened to west Ham after decland Rice left? I mean west Ham tanks decland Rice goes off. He's on England. Can Declan Rice? Can they get it done for England? This World Club? 00:05:55 Speaker 3: Well, look that result against Mexico, against the chaties of altitude and the crowd, and the historical track record and all the shenanigans are around the start time and all that. 00:06:08 Speaker 4: I think they did pretty well. And most of the British Press. 00:06:11 Speaker 3: Is supporting the idea that was one of the greatest performances of England ever. 00:06:16 Speaker 4: So it's going to be interesting that there is a path now through to the final. 00:06:20 Speaker 3: But let's be modest about the TOM because I find that if I get too optimistic and life has a funny way of checking me, well. 00:06:28 Speaker 2: We wouldn't want that. When I'm rooting for Tottenham. I mean I'm scarred, and I'm terribly scarred. Here the one final question, do you see England France being a spectacular final? 00:06:40 Speaker 3: Well, I just hope that you're supporting England now that the US is out in TOM and I'm hoping that all of America's supporting England now. I think it would be a brilliant final and it would be a very close call as to who would win. 00:06:52 Speaker 2: See Paul how he did that without talking about west Ham. 00:06:54 Speaker 4: Yep, he's gifted. 00:06:58 Speaker 2: Stephen Major, Thank you so much. 00:07:00 Speaker 4: Stay with us. 00:07:01 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 00:07:12 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube right now for Global Wall Street a really important briefing with Michael Darta of Roth Capitol. 00:07:31 Speaker 2: I look, Michael Darta with the question I keep coming up with, is the nominal GDP we have is it a Darta Banana Republic? I mean, how much are we goosen the economy with our inflation and with some form of stable GDP? 00:07:47 Speaker 6: Great to be on with you, Tom, Look five point four percent. That's the number for nominal GDP. Not for the last quarter, but for the last two years. It's really been even longer than that. So nominal GDP has been steady, but we've been moving through a blizzard of supply side shocks tariffs last year, a big energy spike this year that's now fortunately unwound. And so when you have volatility in the supply side of the economy that tends to influence nominal growth a lot less. It just changes the composition. Real growth and inflation go in opposite directions when you have a supply side shock. So this backdrop of super stable, very steady, modest nominal GDP growth is a testament to the FED basically getting it correct. Under Chairman Powell, and we know that because we've moved through these shocks without the business cycle slipping away on US. I mentioned this the last time I was on. It goes back to the Bernanki, Gertler Watson research of nineteen ninety seven where they looked back at the upheaval from the oil shocks of the nineteen seventies and can clue that most of that damage was due to the imposition of restrictive monetary policy. 00:09:05 Speaker 4: Well, the FED didn't do it do that this time, and Paul. 00:09:08 Speaker 2: This is the euro distinction, which is austerity is a comfort for Europe where we don't do that post bernanc yep. 00:09:18 Speaker 5: Michael, you talked about the real and nominal GDP. So what is your implicit inflation call here? I've got oil back, you know, sixty nine handle for wtach fude oil is my inflation fears? Can we can we take that out of the market here? 00:09:34 Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm fairly optimistic here. You know, a few weeks ago, FED President John Williams I thought gave a really important speech when he talked about the fact that, you know, current settings for monetary policy looked about right to bring inflation back to target. You know, he has a longer horizon looking out to twenty twenty seven. 00:09:56 Speaker 4: But keep in mind that if you look at. 00:09:59 Speaker 6: The bond mark it right now, longer term inflation expectations are very muted, and they stay muted through the oil shock, and that's based on investors putting their money on the line. And so I think if we can have a little bit of patience here. I know, obviously the FED is overshot the target by five years, but you know the last year plus that's really been due to these supply side disturbances. So as long as they're keeping nominal growth moving in a moderate positive direction, I think these inflation rates are going to come down on the headline level. I think, you know, we look out over the next few quarters, we're going to see a pretty significant disinflation there. So, you know, the unraveling of an adverse supply shop, what does it do. It changes the composition a nominal in a favorable way. You get less inflation and you get more real growth. As it stands, the tracking estimates for real growth have actually held up exceptionally well in the US. I mean, it's really been a resilient economy. So the question is, is the FED going to be hiking interest rates now as we move forward with this resilient economy, even with the oil shock on winding, and we think they're going to be pretty patient on any prospective tightening. 00:11:14 Speaker 5: How about on the other side of the equation for this FED to reserve on the labor market. It seems like, I don't know, everybody who wants a job has a job. I see a four point three percent unemployment rate. That's about as good as it gets. It seems like, how do you think about the labor market? 00:11:29 Speaker 6: Yeah, absolutely, four point two that's a good number. You know, same number that we had two years ago, right, some are of twenty twenty four, we were right at the same level of four point two. So this period of nominal stability that the FED is engineered, obviously, you know, following a big goof in twenty one in twenty two where policy was way too easy. But over the course of the last two or three years, this nominal stability has been associated with a labor market that's sustained a relatively full, quite historically low level of unemployment and underemployment. You could throw the U six rate in there as well. For some of the conspiracy theorists. Uh, and that's you know, that's recently pulled back a bit, but it's essentially at the same level that we were observing well over a year ago. So stability is the is the name of the game here. Now the question comes up what happens if the unemployment rate keeps falling in the business cycle does heat up as we move into the back of the year, And that's really going to be the the the debate going on at the FED about whether they should take back some of those emergency rain cuts or not. 00:12:39 Speaker 2: Michael, before you go, I mean, Paul. The way Michael Darter rules is we get photos. He and the dogs went to may Orca, Spain, Okay, and so we get we get, we get you know, Darta jumping off cliffs. Did you go to Califigera and jump off a ninety foot cliff? 00:12:58 Speaker 4: Uh? No, Tim, I didn't. 00:12:59 Speaker 6: But that at photo I think my wife send is from my Orca, Spain and that was just a few days ago. So yeah, we've had a little bit of fun as well. 00:13:08 Speaker 2: Like it's like one of those Apple pl you know those Apple TV movies Clandestine Michael Dart and Black and White, yep, on that coast of Spain. What did you learn about the Spanish economy boom vacation. 00:13:21 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean obvious, obviously the lens through which I'm looking here is pretty narrow, Tom, but it looks like things are are pretty strong. You know a lot of tourist activity in town, you know, inside Palma. And obviously I'm biased, but you know the food in the culture is top notch, so big. 00:13:40 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, with Dart and with the way he rolls. You should see the kennel that the dogs go to. Yeah, it's like the real Carleton kennel. It's unbelievable. Michael Darta, thank you so much. They're a nominal GV. I can't convey enough, folks that constructive tone from Darta is not within the zeitgeist right now. Stay with the more from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 00:14:10 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 00:14:23 Speaker 4: We're rocking it with Michael Green. 00:14:25 Speaker 2: Why equals nineteen point ninety three times and exponential function of zero point seven to one point eight. No our squared of sixty two, which is sprightly to say the lease. Michael Green joins US now simplify asset management. 00:14:43 Speaker 4: I love it. 00:14:43 Speaker 2: The thermodynamics of AI, you know, I'm addicted to it. To me, it's a closed loop system and it's got to be some kinetic energy release. Explain the thermodynamics around what I see as a closed loop feeding on itself system. 00:15:02 Speaker 7: Well, I think it means two separate components. When we talk about the closed loop with AI, what we're really referring to is the financing mechanism that's allowing the acquisition of customers, either through guaranteeing debt contracts or by lending the money directly in the form of equity investments, et cetera. If you are a customer of in Video and you borrow the money to buy the in video chips, you don't spend much time negotiating the price. And it's really that simple. They've been able to manufacture the demand for their own chips. How long that continues and how long it allows the exceptional profit margins very very hard to know. This is the same phenomenons on the late nineteen nineties with vendor financing from Cisco. So we know that eventually this runs out, the customers ultimately have to be generating profits. 00:15:46 Speaker 2: I am so we got to stop here and review this. Paul's got eight questions. I so so so agree that it's a Cisco Redux. Explain to the young the Cisco moment ninety eight ninety. 00:16:01 Speaker 7: Just like today when AI is the frontier, then it was the Internet or the ability to launch web pages, customer fronts, online storefronts, etc. In order to do that in that time period, it was very hardware intensive build out. You had to actually build out your own servers. There was no cloud component as you could lease. That's been one of the innovations that'sccurred over the last twenty five years for the very simple reason that it has become phenomenally cheap for people to access. In order to obtain that equipment and relatively short supply in the late nineteen nineties, Cisco would had basically a monopoly and was able to lend the money to customers who would pay the most to access it. The validity of those debt contracts ultimately became very much in question when we discovered that web websites built at exceptionally high cost offering subsidized access to consumer products was not a particularly good business, and as that collapsed, we ultimately discovered that the profits that Cisco had been reporting were radically overstated. They retreated, and we had what we called the dot com cycle. Whether that plays out this time or not, I'm not entirely certain, because I'm not entirely certain it's the exact same mechanism as we've discussed over and over and over again, there's an alternate source of the bid. This time, it really is just the American employees plowing their money into four oh one case that is assisting and driving the valuations and performance that we're seeing, and that in turn creates the incentive that says, hey, you should spend a ton of money here. 00:17:29 Speaker 5: So what's the AI play? Visa VI China. I feel like we're not paying enough attention to what China is doing with AI, But I just feel like they're there in a big way, and I just don't know when we're going to see it, how we're going to see it. 00:17:41 Speaker 4: Well. 00:17:41 Speaker 7: I think that's really one of the critical things to remember is that our competition in nineteen ninety nine. 00:17:46 Speaker 4: Was Canada right? 00:17:47 Speaker 7: It was a nortel. Canada is a wonderful country. It's quite large, but it is I know it isn't a fantastic Oh that's what happens when you get old. But we sit here in reminisce about events gone by. The fortunate reality is that we're not paying enough attention to what's happening in China. And China has responded, as life always does when faced with restrictions. They have been limited in their ability to access chips. That has forced them to focus on efficiency. It's forced them to reduce their reliance on American technology, and they're proceeding at an astonishing rate. 00:18:19 Speaker 2: Jim Chinos lectured me on the neo cloud. 00:18:23 Speaker 4: I think a. 00:18:23 Speaker 2: Week and a half after that lecture, we see Meta being very neo cloud and others. The neo cloud, to me, is basically a constructed AI server like it's like an AWS and Amazon Web Services right. Absolutely, to me, this overwhelms everything out there. I mean, it's a no brainer. 00:18:46 Speaker 4: Am I naive? 00:18:47 Speaker 7: Well, what it's telling you is that many of the individuals who purchase those incredibly expensive chips with extraordinarily high gross margins can't figure out what to do with them, thank you, so they're basically putting them into the secondary market. This is different than what eventually happens in markets like gold, where secondary sales ultimately swamp primary production as prices pushed to. 00:19:07 Speaker 4: New all time highs. 00:19:09 Speaker 7: So we are seeing effectively, you know, incremental supply come into the market, not just from the primary sales from Nvidia and others, but now from their customers who in many ways are competing without underlying demand. 00:19:23 Speaker 5: So all when I listen to the Jensen Wongs of the world and other folks within the AI ecosystem, all I hear is insatiable demand for compute for just AI capabilities. I don't know how to parse that other than I think these guys know what they're talking about, But I don't know. 00:19:41 Speaker 7: Well, listen, I think they know what they're talking about as well, and certainly to their face, they're actually seeing that, among other things, if you're Meta or your XAI for example, that wants to maintain optionality to that you're not going to cancel your contracts and in fact you're going to try to keep yours place in line. You're not entirely sure how this is going to play out, and the costs of doing so are relatively low, so I have no doubt that from Invidio's perspective, they see a surplus of demand. There's also the simple reality that companies trading at very high valuations have to sell a story to their customers or to their investors that say, hey, here's why we were worth so much. Right, we're going to sell cars to the AI universe. Whether that works out or not, we can't possibly know yet. 00:20:24 Speaker 2: I made a chart today for Richard Clarinon of CPI back twenty years folks, back to Alexis Christopher's ute, and I looked at a two percent goal for the FED, and you know, I was surprised. In a four year presidential moving average, we actually succeeded. It's some form of two percent inflation. And then things changed. What's the permanence of this new higher inflation after your earthshaking study ninety days ago of affordability in America? Kinds of a live in this in real time. It's not like the old days. 00:21:05 Speaker 7: It's not like the old days. And part of the challenge that we are facing, what you're referring to as the piece that released last November, My Life is a lie one hundred and forty thousand dollars poverty line that got an incredible amount of pushback, but is now actually increasingly being shown to be correct, and so we are actually seeing growing awareness of the affordability crisis is very real. They're two key criteria to understand. 00:21:28 Speaker 4: One is the way you. 00:21:29 Speaker 7: And I think about inflation is a year over year change on the price level, and that makes perfect sense from an economic standpoint. The problem is once you're underwater, once you're spending exceeds your income. If your income and inflation match, which the Federal Reserve or the BLS would look at and say, hey, this is fantastic. Real wages were flat, or real wages grew very slightly, you're still underwater, and you're potentially even more underwater. And that is really creating conditions under which more and more households are facing the life choices that they need to make under a calendar basis, do we get married, do we have children, et cetera, and choosing to opt out of that process that's causing social frustration. The desire is not gone. The ability is increasing. 00:22:10 Speaker 2: I would say, Paul the major debate we're having is this, do we get back to some form of disinflationary tendency? Yeah, I mean away from the politics into November. 00:22:19 Speaker 5: Well, what we saw just from the pandemic is that the price increases, but I'm not seeing I see occasionally some prices is coming down. But it's just talking about the rate of inflation from a higher base. And that's where I think most people have a lot of problems. 00:22:34 Speaker 7: And that's what I was referring to with the price level. Right when we've had this conversation with people and people feel that we are gaslighting them, and we say that inflation is buying large transitory in all seriousness, when we have a war in the Middle East and gasoline prices spike to get a a CPI number that is coincidentally timed almost perfectly to the low at the end of February and effectively the highs that we've experienced at the end of May, you're going to see inflation. 00:23:01 Speaker 2: There's no way around it. 00:23:02 Speaker 7: To only get four percent inflation as measured on a year of a year basis is actually pretty remarkably low relative to the history that we would have expected. To go back and look at the nineteen nineties, for example, with the invasion of the attacks against Iraq and desert storm a shield. 00:23:18 Speaker 2: You're watching the football. 00:23:20 Speaker 4: I'm not watching the football. Stay with us. 00:23:22 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 00:23:32 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 00:23:45 Speaker 2: The punditry is in full force. People that wandered by, they read three books and they're an expert. 00:23:52 Speaker 4: Or you live it. 00:23:53 Speaker 2: Rosecotto Mooeller is the kind of diplomat that we don't have enough of there in retreat in the small age. She's a former Deputy pre Secretary General of NATO, the former Undersecretary of State for Arms Control in International Security. Rose, thank you so much for joining us for a four hour good conversation. I look Rose, certain, I look Rose at the cacophany here. So what can NATO do off of the Atlantic Charter of I think it was nineteen forty one to the new modern NATO to help with arms control from the Finland border all the way down to Tehran. 00:24:39 Speaker 8: Well, the first thing that NATO can do is help to resolve this war of Russian aggression in Ukraine, and that is the key issue that will have to be resolved before we can think about a European security architecture that I hope will provide mutual predictability and stability for everyone. And that includes the aggressors the Russian Federation, but obviously must include every NATO member and the NATO partner states across Europe and right up to the borders of Asia. As you've said, Turkey of course is a NATO member state as well, and so their security and stability relies on NATO. As we see from this anchor, a summit of NATO going on this week. 00:25:22 Speaker 5: Rose, how do you think NATO views the US here these days? It feels like, you know, when US went into a RAN reported that we did not really consult with our NATO allies. Do you think NATO is viewing the US these days? 00:25:37 Speaker 8: Apparently NATO is viewed less well by the US public than it has been historically. When I was Deputy Secretary General and NATO was celebrating its seventy fifth birthday at the time, NATO was really quite popular seventy percent or more of the US public. That numbers dropped now into the fifties evidently, but I think that is likely because of the very strong criticism that Donald Trump has directed at NATO. And as you know, he's unrelenting on the airwaves and in social media. So people are listening to that and they say, hey, well, maybe NATO isn't helping us so much. But as I see it, NATO is in fact taking on the responsibility for conventional defense in Europe, just as the Trump administration has demanded. And so I do think that in general NATO is serving the US interests well. And honestly, also, I think the US public is going to bounce back about NATO when they see the results of Trump's demands to spend more on their own defense. 00:26:42 Speaker 2: I look at this, Madam Secretary, and I say to myself, well, the President announced with mister Aridowan an hour ago that is cured nine wars or eight wars, Paul, I can't remember the count right now. What everybody thinks about domestic politics is our military over extended through Washington, through say the Navy in San Diego, through our NATO effort in Brussels. Is America's military mic just simply over extended. 00:27:12 Speaker 8: It is kind of amusing because Trump claimed when he was running for office that he would never launch a war in the Middle East, a war of choice in the Middle East. But that's exactly what he did. So well, there goes campaign promises. I guess many politicians are guilty of that. But in any event, you know, the US Armed Forces were designed in the wake of World War Two to help provide for security around the world, and it's that security and predictability on which the health of our modern economy is based. If it weren't for the fact that the US Navy was operating in both the Atlantic and Pacific, really around the world, we wouldn't see the straits through which our trade passes, we wouldn't see those open, we wouldn't see freedom of passage for commercial ships everywhere. So there's a good the reason why the US Armed Forces are extended around the world. They have provided a central peace through this world war post World War two era. Now the question is what's going to happen. Trump says he wants to shift the balance to the Indo Pacific in order to confront China. And the Europeans are left to defend themselves. That is, I think something that they can take on because they are strong economies and they have been frankly freeloading on the United States, not spending enough on their own defense. So let's take the bright side and say they're finally shouldering some responsibility. 00:28:35 Speaker 5: Rose with your experience, how do you think the situation with Ukraine and Russia plays itself out in over what time frame? 00:28:44 Speaker 8: I take very seriously the public stance that Zelensky has taken in recent days, and I've long seen how the Ukrainians have been able to deny the Russian sea control in the Black Sea. You know, they use their their small seed groans like you know, they're basically like motor boats with explosives on them to really destroy major naval ships of the Russian Federation, and that's blocked Russia out of the Black Sea, and they've also stopped them on the battlefield. So now Zelenski says, we're taking to the air and this war will be won with this missile duel that's going on between Russia and Ukraine. And Ukrainians are very good missile pairs. They have shown that so The question now is what about air defense. They are not doing well defending against ballistic missiles because the United States and its allies are not providing them patriot missile defense interceptors. So the problem now is can they improve their missile defenses. They're doing great against drones, you know, they've mastered that, and in fact, the Middle East other places are clamoring for their grone defense systems, but they need help to defend against these bigger ballistic missiles. 00:29:56 Speaker 2: One final question, you are expert. I think of Marshall Goldman, Angelus Stent and the others that have advantaged us over the years in conversation. What's after Putin? 00:30:11 Speaker 8: Well, it could be more of the same. Unfortunately, he has created a system in Russia that is very much based on the security services, and they have brought on a younger generation, so it could be a younger Putin clone. We'll have to see. My hope is that they have quite a few skilled, more technocratic leaders, people who really know, for example, the international economy and banking system, people who care about the economy of Russia being healthy going forward. So perhaps it could be one of those more technocratic types, less security service, less KGB type and that I think will be a good perhaps outcome in general, but I worry that what we are seeing is the continuation of a system of security was KGB rule in in Russia, which ends up being a kind of mafia style leadership, and I fear that for the nature of Russia. 00:31:08 Speaker 2: And this has been the highlight of our day with all that we've done. An anchor with Oliver Crook and annre Horden's Deputy Secretary. Thank you so much, Rose gotten Muller's service to the nation in too many instances, including the Deputy Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 00:31:27 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.