1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 2: Fascinating, decidedly negative, But what a change in sentiment there 7 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 2: while the President was talking. 8 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 3: Did he just help the market? 9 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 2: Sometimes it does help just to be present, even if 10 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 2: you're saying things that the market doesn't want to hear. 11 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 2: And it had been a couple of days, right, everybody 12 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:42,279 Speaker 2: wanted to hear the President answer questions, which is why 13 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 2: we brought you into the Oval Office for that important moment. 14 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 2: The Chancellor of Germany barely. 15 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 3: Got a word in. 16 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 2: I'm not sure that this visit has played terribly well 17 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 2: for him, but the President certainly made his point here. 18 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 2: Asked again if Israel forced the hand of the United 19 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 2: States on this, knowing that the Secretary of State suggested 20 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 2: yesterday that the US found it had no choice but 21 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 2: to act in advance of what it saw as an 22 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 2: inevitable Israeli strike on Iran that would prompt retribution against 23 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 2: US assets. 24 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 3: Here's the president. Just a few moments ago, we. 25 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 4: Were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my 26 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 4: opinion that they were going to attack first. They were 27 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 4: going to attack if we didn't do it. They were 28 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:23,199 Speaker 4: going to attack first. 29 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 3: I felt strongly about. 30 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 4: That, and we have great negotiators, great people, people that 31 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 4: do this very successfully and have done it all their lives, 32 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 4: very successful, and based on the way the negotiation was going, 33 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 4: I think they were going to attack first, and I 34 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 4: didn't want that to happen. So if anything, I might 35 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 4: have forced Israel's hand. 36 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 2: What is interesting, of course, is hearing from the likes 37 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,559 Speaker 2: of Senator Tim Kaine and others who say, well, there's 38 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 2: no evidence to that extent. In fact, Senator Kane had 39 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 2: an op ed in the Wall Street Journal two days 40 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 2: ago saying as much, based on all the classified information 41 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 2: that he sees, there was no evidence of an imminent threat. 42 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 2: It's where we our conversation with Jamie Terra Bay. I'm 43 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 2: really glad that we can do this right now. Bloomberg 44 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 2: Capital influenced national security reporter with US live in our 45 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 2: Washington bureau. Jamie, it's great to see you before we 46 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 2: get into some of your reporting on what the president 47 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 2: is facing here in terms of potential regime change or not. 48 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 2: What do you make of the framing of this essentially 49 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 2: new justification. This is really just in the last twenty 50 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 2: four hours before this. 51 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 5: The two words that just jumped out at me during 52 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 5: this sort of this press availability was that they were 53 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 5: going to attack first, yes, and I don't even know 54 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,359 Speaker 5: what that means. And was it launching some kind of 55 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 5: attack on Israel? Like what you know, just the sort 56 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 5: of the lack of specificity that we're getting, and like 57 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,079 Speaker 5: you said, the sort of the chopping and changing of 58 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 5: the mission, the sort of the scope. We're hearing all 59 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 5: kinds of different things. We're hearing you this is not 60 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,679 Speaker 5: going to be like Iraq. You know, we heard the 61 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 5: president call when he announced the attacks were happening on 62 00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 5: sat very early Saturday morning that he called on Ranian 63 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 5: people to overthrow their governments. And this was or once 64 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 5: in the generational opportunity. Now we have Secretary of State 65 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 5: Marco Rubio on the hills saying the mission is to 66 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 5: destroy their ballistic and nuclear capability. So this is obviously 67 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 5: a very fluid, very quickly developing situation, and like the 68 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:22,959 Speaker 5: goals keep changing as well, well. 69 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 2: Which is an issue, and you're in the throes of 70 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 2: this initial attack here. Indeed, we heard from Marco Rubio, 71 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 2: the Speaker of the House, suggested this as well, and 72 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 2: other Republicans have been using this line. Did talking points 73 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 2: go out on Sunday night? How is everyone on the 74 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 2: same page with that yesterday? 75 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 5: You know, it's interesting that they are kind of starting 76 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 5: to say a lot of the same things. And this 77 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:50,119 Speaker 5: isn't the first time we've watched repeatedly whenever they've been 78 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 5: briefings that are classified or closed, or that they are 79 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 5: all in lockstep. You know, they're all getting the same 80 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 5: talking points in the same playbook, and you know that 81 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 5: there are Republicans who are resolutely behind the president regardless 82 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 5: of what they hear in a lot of these briefings 83 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 5: as well, that we really need to kind of note 84 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 5: that as well. 85 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 2: Let's go back to that moment that stopped us in 86 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 2: our tracks yesterday when we heard from the Secretary of 87 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 2: State on Capitol Hill. He of course had been up 88 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 2: there briefing lawmakers. He was greeted by reporters in the hallway. 89 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 2: Listen to what he said. 90 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 6: There absolutely was an imminent threat. And the inminent threat 91 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 6: was that we knew that if Iran was attacked, and 92 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 6: we believe they would be attacked, that they would immediately 93 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 6: come after us, and we were not going to sit 94 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,599 Speaker 6: there and absorb a blow before we responded. We went 95 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,719 Speaker 6: proactively in a defensive way to prevent them from inflicting 96 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 6: higher damage. Have we not done so, there would have 97 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 6: been hearings on Capitol Hill about how we knew that 98 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 6: this was going to happen and we didn't act preemptively 99 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:45,119 Speaker 6: to prevent more casualties and more loss of life. 100 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 2: He went back to that line a couple of times, 101 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:49,600 Speaker 2: that you know what can then I'll be up here 102 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 2: in hearings on Capitol Hill. 103 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 3: Let's get back to Tim Kaine's op ed quote. 104 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 2: As a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Foreign 105 00:04:57,320 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 2: Relations committees, this is where the hearings would take place. 106 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 2: With access to ample classified information about threats from Iran 107 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 2: and others, I can state plainly there was no imminent 108 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 2: threat from Iran to America sufficient to ward committing our 109 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 2: sons and daughters to another war in the Middle East. 110 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 2: There you see it on your screen if you were 111 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 2: with US on YouTube. Will the administration be compelled to 112 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 2: provide that evidence. 113 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 5: There are more classified briefings happening today on the Hill. 114 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 5: It really really depends on the level of intelligence that 115 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 5: gets shared by the administration with lawmakers. What really struck 116 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 5: me about what Marco Rubio said. He said he said 117 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,520 Speaker 5: something about Iran was if Iran was going to be attacked, 118 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 5: then we would be attacked. So who would be attacking Iran? 119 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 3: That's Israel, right, right? 120 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 5: So would Israel be doing something not in lockstep with 121 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 5: the US? With Israeli doing this against American wishes? And 122 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 5: you know, I think that really speaks to the sort 123 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 5: of the coordination and you know, the timeline of how 124 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 5: these decisions were made, like the idea that there was 125 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 5: an imminent threat, which, by the way, you know, sender 126 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 5: Mark Warner, who is a senior member of the Intelligence Committee, 127 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 5: said that he has seen nothing in all of these 128 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 5: classified briefings that has told him that there was an 129 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 5: imminent threat. What was the imminent threat was that Iran 130 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 5: was Israel attacking Iran and in Iran responding by attacking 131 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 5: the US. I mean, so if that's the case, why 132 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 5: you know then that we need to think about well, 133 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:29,599 Speaker 5: you know, the sort of the ability for Israel to 134 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 5: do that you know laterally, and what that relationship and 135 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:34,839 Speaker 5: the alliance with the US really means. 136 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 2: Really something considering that we're working together on this, Jamie, 137 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 2: You're reporting has called into question the idea. And by 138 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:45,040 Speaker 2: the way, the President acknowledged this, and one of the 139 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 2: questions he was just asked about his worst case scenario. 140 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 2: He said, you know, look, if somebody takes over who's 141 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:55,679 Speaker 2: as bad as the previous person, right, that could happen. 142 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 2: I guess the worst case scenario would be we do 143 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 2: this and somebody take who's as bad as the previous person. 144 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 2: You're reporting, and what you've been bringing to the conversation 145 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 2: is that this is different. This isn't Kadafi, this isn't Saddam, 146 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 2: That this isn't about a figurehead. That there is a 147 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 2: much larger apparatus here, which is why we're still seeing 148 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 2: drones flying today, right. 149 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 5: I mean, I think that it has been extraordinary to 150 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 5: see that that military retaliation, the scope and the scale 151 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 5: of the drones and the missiles, the short, medium and 152 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 5: long range that we have. These amazing experts at Bloomberg 153 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 5: have been sort of laying this all out for everyone 154 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 5: over the last couple of days. But it really tells 155 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 5: you that a this is not one person, this is 156 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 5: an institution, and there is a chain of command. And 157 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 5: if the first one, two, three, four layers are eradicated, 158 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 5: there is still more to come. And this every I 159 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 5: spent a lot of the time on the weekend speaking 160 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 5: to so many intelligence people, people who have been watching 161 00:07:56,240 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 5: and studying Iran for forty for four decades, forty is 162 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 5: and they say that this system is deeply, deeply, deeply 163 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 5: entrenched on every level, the security services, the surveillance state, 164 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 5: the grip that the Shia sort of the sort of 165 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 5: the religious Council has on the country. This isn't something 166 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:22,080 Speaker 5: that is going to be easily rested from power in 167 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 5: the way that people are hoping it will be. I mean, 168 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 5: the one of the biggest differences between what happened in 169 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 5: Syria or in Libya or in Iraq is number one. 170 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:39,559 Speaker 5: In Iraq, ground forces, US ground forces launched an invasion 171 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 5: led you know, with their international allies, and what happened 172 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 5: after that was you saw an abandonment by the Iraqi 173 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 5: Army of their duties. Right, So that's number one that 174 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 5: is really unlikely to happen in Iran if there aren't 175 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 5: ground troops, and we're already seeing casualties on the US 176 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:01,199 Speaker 5: military side, I don't know how long that is going 177 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:05,839 Speaker 5: to be sustainable and maintain political will for that to continue. 178 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 5: And even with the idea that ground troops is not 179 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 5: going to be sort of ruled out, there's still so 180 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 5: much political costs that comes with that. Syria was a 181 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 5: decade in the making and again armed forces ousted this regime. So, 182 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 5: you know, the protesters in Iran, as we saw in 183 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:29,839 Speaker 5: January when these protests were like brutally brutally suppressed, they 184 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 5: don't have weapons, they're not armed, so for them to 185 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 5: come at this this heating force. I am speaking to 186 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 5: an Israeli general yesterday who ranks the numbers in at 187 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 5: least a million, you know, security forces, revolutionary power, military, 188 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 5: It's a lot for these people to come up against. 189 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:51,839 Speaker 5: If one of those forces choose to switch sides, there 190 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:53,920 Speaker 5: may be a chance, but outside of that, this is 191 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 5: a really remote possibility, especially in the short term. 192 00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 2: Well, as someone who's done extensive reporting from war zones, Jamie, 193 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 2: is there any way to get to these hundreds of 194 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 2: thousands of drones to discover them, to secure them, or 195 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:13,079 Speaker 2: to find the highly enriched uranium without having actual human 196 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:13,960 Speaker 2: beings on the ground. 197 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 5: I'm based off everything that we saw with Iraq and 198 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 5: the search for weapons of mass destruction. I would say no, 199 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 5: the drones are definitely a new calculus we're seeing. They 200 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 5: fly low, they fly fast, They're impossible to get all 201 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:33,680 Speaker 5: of them at some point. I think people are expecting 202 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:36,959 Speaker 5: the Uranians to run out, but the damage that they 203 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 5: will inflict before then is something that I think we 204 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 5: will all be watching for a while, and it's obviously 205 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 5: providing a lot of uncertainty and instability to all of 206 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 5: the allies in the Gulf as well. 207 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:50,439 Speaker 2: I mean rones, yeah, I mean if we're going to 208 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 2: shoot a million dollar missile at each of these things, 209 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 2: we got a lot of money to spend and a 210 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 2: lot of missiles to buy. Just lastly, before you go 211 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 2: to that end, what did you make of the President's 212 00:10:58,760 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 2: post this morning? 213 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 3: The forever post? He used the word forever. 214 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 2: The United States munition stockpiles have at the medium and 215 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:08,559 Speaker 2: upper medium grade never been higher or better. As was 216 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:11,199 Speaker 2: stated to me today, we have virtually unlimited supply of 217 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 2: these weapons he writes, wars can be fought forever and 218 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 2: very successfully using just these supplies. 219 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 3: When does this logic run into some headwinds. 220 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 5: One of the things that I think is really important 221 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 5: in moments like this is opportunity cost. And we spent 222 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 5: a lot of time in Iraq and Afghanistan at the 223 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:36,839 Speaker 5: cost of developing weaponry or saving our resources, saving our blood, 224 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 5: saving our treasure. Wild China, for example, was developing and 225 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 5: enriching and militarizing. So if the dedication of these resources 226 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 5: here for something that doesn't seem particularly threatening versus what 227 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 5: people have described as an imminent threat in the Pacific, 228 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 5: for example, especially regarding Taiwan, and especially with the support 229 00:11:57,040 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 5: of Ukraine, I question that. I also question the the 230 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 5: sort of the determination to maintain so many different fronts 231 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 5: and so many conflicts, and the drain that we'll have 232 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 5: on our resources. The build up in the Mediterranean and 233 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 5: in the Gulf is as big. Don't forget we also 234 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 5: had the same situation in the Caribbee, and so that's 235 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 5: a lot of strain on the military, and there's families, 236 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 5: there's veterans, there's injuries and wounded, and just the sort 237 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 5: of the ripple effect that I witnessed coming out of Iraq. 238 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:32,680 Speaker 5: We are still feeling the effects of that today. The 239 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:35,680 Speaker 5: Iraq and Afghan veterans are still dealing with these things 240 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 5: and they have become these forever wars have now been 241 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 5: forgotten wars. So I really think that we need to remember, 242 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 5: because we can only learn from history. 243 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:46,840 Speaker 2: I'm so happy that you could spend some time with 244 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 2: us today and keep your eyes on the terminal and 245 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 2: the website for Jamie's great reporting Jamie Terra Bay Capital 246 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,559 Speaker 2: Influence National Security, and find more from her at Bloomberg 247 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 2: dot com. 248 00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 249 00:12:58,520 --> 00:12:59,719 Speaker 3: more coming up after this. 250 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 251 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:11,679 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 252 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: Almalcarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, with 253 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 1: the on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 254 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 255 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 2: A barrel of crude selling for seventy five dollars, a 256 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 2: little over up four dollars, up a little more than 257 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:31,840 Speaker 2: five percent. West Texas Intermediate with great concerns about what 258 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 2: type of supply interruption we could be talking about in 259 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 2: the days ahead. If that happens, it's obviously a great 260 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 2: moment of uncertainty. But the S and P five hundred 261 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 2: has been clinging to that sixty eight hundred level pretty stubbornly. 262 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 2: And we explore this all little bit more with Alexandra Semenova, 263 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News Equities reporter with us also live from World 264 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 2: Headquarters in New York. Alexander, what has your attention here 265 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 2: in a day that has seen stocks recover somewhat but 266 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 2: still huge concerns about what's happening in the energy space. 267 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 7: Hey, Joe, Well, it is a firmly risk off day today, 268 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 7: with stocks and bonds deepening their losses since attacks began 269 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 7: on a Ran over the weekend. Definitely a stronger reaction 270 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 7: today than we sought yesterday. About four hundred and fifty 271 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 7: shares in the S and P five hundred were lower, 272 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:16,839 Speaker 7: and of course the Dow dropped as much as twelve 273 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 7: hundred points at some point in the trading day today. 274 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 7: It is worth it pointing out that the SNP did 275 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 7: pair a significantly deeper decline at some point, falling as 276 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 7: much as two point five percent to an October low. 277 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 7: Much of this has to do with soaring energy prices, 278 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 7: casting a doubt on the ability of the FED to 279 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 7: cut interest rates given the risk it poses to inflation. 280 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 7: We had FED President Neil Kashgari today at Bloomberg invest 281 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 7: saying that the attacks on a run put into doubt 282 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 7: his call for a an interest rate reduction later this year. Now, 283 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 7: investors are contending with some cross currents here. On one hand, 284 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 7: if you look at past geopolitical volatility, it's typically proven 285 00:14:56,920 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 7: to be a good buying opportunity for stocks given and 286 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 7: as long as oil prices have been contained. Now, in 287 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 7: the aftermath of past escalations in the Middle East, the 288 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 7: S and P five hundred was higher by two percent, 289 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 7: six percent, and eight percent on average in the one, 290 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 7: six and twelve month periods that followed. This is according 291 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 7: to data for Morgan Stanley. But the big caveat is 292 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 7: when energy costs a substantially surge, the level that crude 293 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 7: oil prices would have to reach for it to become 294 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 7: a pain point for equities is one hundred dollars per barrel. 295 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 7: That is the threshold that typically becomes associated with negative 296 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 7: equity returns, given it starts to weigh on consumer sentiment 297 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 7: on corporate earnings. 298 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 3: We're not there. 299 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 7: Yet, but investors today are signaling that they are worried 300 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 7: that this could be more prolonged than expected yesterday. 301 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 5: Well, and what should we. 302 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 8: Make alex of the idea that we're not seeing a 303 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 8: traditional flight to the havens that you would at least expect. 304 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 8: Where can safety be sought right now? 305 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 7: That's the big question, Kaylee, and I've been asking traders 306 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 7: that all day long, and I really haven't gotten a 307 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 7: solid air answer from them, because it seems to be 308 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 7: a lot of folks trying to figure that out. Now. 309 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 7: Typically tech used to be the safe haven trade given 310 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 7: it's strong balance sheets, but now we have all these 311 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 7: concerns around artificial intelligence and capex spending, so that's not 312 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 7: the traditional defensive plan anymore. The common denominator that I've 313 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 7: gotten from conversations I've had as people are looking at 314 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 7: companies with strong balance sheets, there's been this flight to 315 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 7: the halo trades, so looking at tangible assets metals kind 316 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 7: of the companies that are building out AI technology versus 317 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 7: you know, the coders, and then also looking for companies 318 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 7: that aren't necessarily tied to economic growth given the risk 319 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 7: that we could get a spike at inflation if this 320 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 7: conflict persists. 321 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 8: All right, Bloomberg's Alexander Semenova, thank you so much for 322 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,800 Speaker 8: joining us from New York, and we want to go 323 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 8: to the White House next where Again, as we mentioned 324 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 8: just a moment ago earlier, this afternoon, President Trump was 325 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 8: joined in the Oval Office by the German Chancellor Friedrich Martz, 326 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 8: with the war in Ukraine and trade issues on the agenda, 327 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:06,439 Speaker 8: but first and foremost the ongoing conflict in Iran that 328 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 8: the US and Israel, of course is continuing to prosecute. 329 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 8: This bombing campaign against Iranian targets, which the President contends 330 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 8: largely have been wiped out in terms of Iran's military capabilities. 331 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 8: But he was also pressed on this notion that we 332 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 8: heard from the Secretary of State Mark Rubio and the 333 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 8: House Speaker Mike Johnson yesterday, the idea that Israel was 334 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 8: set to strike first and the US joined in out 335 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 8: of concern that Iran was going to retaliate against US 336 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 8: assets in the region. The President suggested that wasn't the case. 337 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 4: We were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was 338 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 4: my opinion that they were going to attack first. They 339 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 4: were going to attack if we didn't do it. 340 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:50,399 Speaker 3: They were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that, and. 341 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 4: We have great negotiators, great people, people that do this 342 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:56,959 Speaker 4: very successfully and have done it all their lives, very successful, 343 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 4: and based on the way the negotiation was going, I 344 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:03,880 Speaker 4: think they were going to attack first, and I didn't 345 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,639 Speaker 4: want that to happen. So, if anything, I might have 346 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 4: forced Israel's hand. 347 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 8: For more return to Bloomberg Tyler Kendall, who was live 348 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 8: on the north lawn of the White House for US, 349 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:17,439 Speaker 8: So Tyler not necessarily a consistent narrative we're getting from 350 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,920 Speaker 8: the President and others in his administration and close to him. 351 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 9: No, though, Kiley, we have heard consistently from senior administration 352 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 9: officials starting this weekend when the attack started, that they 353 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,880 Speaker 9: are calling this a preemptive defensive attack, which it appears 354 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 9: President Trump was alluding to there, despite his Secretary of 355 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,159 Speaker 9: State Mark Rubio, as you mentioned yesterday, telling reporters on 356 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 9: Capitol Hill, that they were confident that Israel was going 357 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 9: to launch a strike that would very likely mean retaliation 358 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:50,400 Speaker 9: against US targets. So an interesting back and forth there, 359 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:53,359 Speaker 9: I guess you could say, as we've been working through 360 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:57,159 Speaker 9: some of those other statements from the administration, including the 361 00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:01,040 Speaker 9: objectives of this mission as well as what the ultimate 362 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,679 Speaker 9: goal is going to be. Right, we heard from the 363 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,679 Speaker 9: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth yesterday saying that the original intent 364 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 9: was not going to be what he called quote so 365 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:13,400 Speaker 9: called regime changed, though they are hoping that the Iranian 366 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 9: people take advantage of this moment. In their words, President 367 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,880 Speaker 9: Trump went on in that Oval Office meeting to talk 368 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,440 Speaker 9: about how what the worst thing would be was if 369 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 9: the regime stayed in place in the same sort of 370 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 9: era that it has been fostering. And President Trump wants 371 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 9: to see leadership changed when it comes to Iran. The 372 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 9: question then becomes, what does that actually look like. The 373 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 9: President had said before that there were a few options 374 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 9: that they were eyeing that the US felt that it 375 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 9: could work with, but that all of those people have 376 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:43,880 Speaker 9: been killed in the strikes. That's something that we're going 377 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 9: to be watching really closely as this ultimately develops, because 378 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 9: from an operational level, the US and Israel are continuing 379 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 9: their bombardment of Iran. Joe and Keiley, we got confirmation 380 00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 9: this morning from the IDEF that this is now the 381 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 9: ninth wave of strikes against the. 382 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 3: Country straight from the Oval Office. 383 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:08,200 Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall, Bloomberg Washington Correspondent, live at the White House. Tyler, 384 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:10,239 Speaker 2: we thank you and thanks for being there for that 385 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:14,360 Speaker 2: incredible conversation with the President. Here's a little bit more 386 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 2: of a taste of what the President said about what's 387 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 2: been accomplished in just the last four days. 388 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,679 Speaker 3: Listen, they have no navy. 389 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 4: It's been knocked out, they have no air force has 390 00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,479 Speaker 4: been knocked out, they have no air detection has been 391 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 4: knocked out, their radar has been knocked out, and just 392 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 4: about everything's been knocked out. So we'll see how we do. 393 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 4: But we're doing We're doing very well. We have a 394 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:41,160 Speaker 4: great military and they're doing a fantastic job. 395 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 2: And even if that remains the case, there are great 396 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 2: questions about our supply of munitions. With the president untruth 397 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,679 Speaker 2: social earlier today said could in fact last forever. The 398 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:55,920 Speaker 2: word that he used, we could fight forever. But there's 399 00:20:55,960 --> 00:21:01,280 Speaker 2: a fascinating story on the terminal that questions Iran's missile math. 400 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 2: As Bloomberg News puts it, twenty thousand dollars drones taking 401 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 2: on four million dollar patriots. Something we wanted to talk 402 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 2: to Kelly Rico about, who specializes an asymmetric warfare senior 403 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 2: fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at the 404 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,199 Speaker 2: Stimpson Center. Kelly, thank you for joining us as we 405 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:23,399 Speaker 2: face the prospect of hundreds of thousands more drones potentially 406 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 2: being sent to US to our allies in attack by Iran. 407 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 2: There are questions about whether, in fact this is the 408 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 2: right approach or we should be using a different technology 409 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:34,880 Speaker 2: to fight them. 410 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,119 Speaker 3: What do you think, Well, first of all. 411 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 10: Thank you for having me. 412 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,439 Speaker 11: I think you hit the nail on the head and 413 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,120 Speaker 11: that there is a real issue here in terms of 414 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 11: the sustainability of cost, particularly if you're going to use 415 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:51,360 Speaker 11: exquisite systems to intercept these relatively low costs shahed drones. 416 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,320 Speaker 10: You know, I think the United States is probably. 417 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 11: Trying to not use things like it's patriots interceptors for 418 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:01,439 Speaker 11: this and holding those in reserve when it's absolutely necessary. 419 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 11: It's probably trying to rely on some other methods, but 420 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 11: they're still fairly costly. Like we've seen F sixteens for example, 421 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,119 Speaker 11: or AT fifteen's flying in the air and using anti 422 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 11: air missiles against these. We're now seeing apaches that are 423 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 11: also being used in this role. Traditionally they hunt tanks, 424 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,400 Speaker 11: but now they're hunting to head drone. 425 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 10: But we don't really have a lot of low cost 426 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 10: sustainable options at the moment. 427 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:32,120 Speaker 8: Well, so when we consider that, then, Kelly, expensive ants 428 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 8: these things may be when we consider the quantity we 429 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,679 Speaker 8: have of them and where they are. Do we have 430 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 8: adequate capacity in the Middle East right now? Are we 431 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 8: going to have to be pulling these assets from other theaters? 432 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:44,199 Speaker 3: Oh? 433 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 11: Well, I think when we combine both the missile threat, 434 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 11: because they're still the ballistic missile threat and the drone threat. 435 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:51,439 Speaker 10: You know, there's sort of a. 436 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,399 Speaker 11: Race going on right now between the ability of the 437 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 11: United States and Israel and now them's Qatar also to 438 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:02,440 Speaker 11: be able to fall in to locate and destroy the 439 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:08,199 Speaker 11: infrastructure for its missile airny missiles and the launchers the 440 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,120 Speaker 11: drone facilities to try to destroy that so they can't 441 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 11: get as much in the air and take off the 442 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 11: pressure on the interceptors. But if you look at the 443 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:19,119 Speaker 11: basic math, particularly against the war. Before the war, it's 444 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,120 Speaker 11: certainly favored Iran and just share numbers. 445 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 10: You know, the question becomes how effective is it being at. 446 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:28,360 Speaker 11: Degrading those capabilities? But the reality is even what we've 447 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,959 Speaker 11: done so far. We've actually gone in significantly into our 448 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 11: own stockpiles of these interceptors. 449 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,399 Speaker 10: And the important thing to really understand is that you can. 450 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 11: Use these interceptors and buy down short term risk today 451 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,240 Speaker 11: by using more on the inventory. But you can't remake 452 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,720 Speaker 11: these overnight. You can't replace them overnight. You're not probably 453 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 11: going to even be able to replace them this year. 454 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,360 Speaker 11: We're talking about years to be able to replace these interceptors. 455 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 2: Well that I'd love for you to help us interpret 456 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 2: the President's post on truth social decode this force, Kelly, 457 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,920 Speaker 2: He writes, the US munition stockpiles have at the medium 458 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,360 Speaker 2: and upper medium grade. You can qualify that for US 459 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 2: never been higher or better. He writes, as was stated 460 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,920 Speaker 2: to me today, we have a virtually unlimited supply of 461 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 2: these weapons. Wars can be fought forever and very successfully 462 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:20,919 Speaker 2: using just these supplies. 463 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:23,400 Speaker 3: Is that true? 464 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 11: I am not sure what he means exactly by medium grade. 465 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 10: I have a few like two different thoughts in response. 466 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 11: One is that it is true that when you're talking 467 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:36,600 Speaker 11: about shorter range things on offense, particularly if we're able 468 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,200 Speaker 11: to not rely as much on long range munitions and 469 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,199 Speaker 11: we're able to get closer to targets and Iran, you 470 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 11: can rely on shorter range things we have that in 471 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 11: larger numbers, so on the offensive strikes we can sustain this. 472 00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:49,440 Speaker 10: For quite a while. 473 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 11: The air defense missile defense issue becomes much more challenging. 474 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 11: There are just certain realities around those stop around those 475 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 11: stockpiles that we can really escape. 476 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 8: Kelly, Obviously, when we're watching the markets today, we are 477 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:09,280 Speaker 8: seeing major upward pressure on commodities, oil and natural gas 478 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 8: prices surging as we consider whether or not the straight 479 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 8: of Horror moves is going to be safely navigable for 480 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 8: tankers in order to get that product and crude out 481 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,159 Speaker 8: of the region. Is it possible for the US or 482 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,919 Speaker 8: Israeli forces to do what proved very difficult to do 483 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 8: with the hoo Thies in the Red Sea and make 484 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 8: sure that the strait is secure for transit with the 485 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 8: resources we have and knowing we also actively are trying 486 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:35,080 Speaker 8: to play defense with the drones and everything else that 487 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 8: are on is sending out right now. 488 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean this is a very tall order. 489 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 11: For the reasons that you highlight is that we've you know, 490 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 11: did this earlier with the hoo Thies, and the hoo 491 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 11: Thies you know, also been threatening that they're going to 492 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 11: resume their strikes as well. The question is that it's 493 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:55,239 Speaker 11: not even one threat at this point, then you know 494 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 11: a lot. One of the challenges here is you're going 495 00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 11: to have to be making some acute decisions because if you 496 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 11: want to protect commerce in the straighter from US, then 497 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,880 Speaker 11: those same you know, missile defense ships are not going 498 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,600 Speaker 11: to be able to say, provide some level of coverage 499 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:14,080 Speaker 11: for you know, carrier the carry strike group itself, or. 500 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 10: To help protect some of the ports of Gulf states. 501 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 11: And so it's these kinds of trade offs that are 502 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 11: just really that are cute and we can't escape them. 503 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,960 Speaker 10: That's just the reality. 504 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,760 Speaker 2: We understand that Iran was estimated to have about two 505 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:32,200 Speaker 2: thousand ballistic missiles after last year's conflict with Israel. Based 506 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:36,280 Speaker 2: on what's taken place over the last four days drones aside, Kelly, 507 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,479 Speaker 2: what do we think that might leave behind? 508 00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean it's a little hard to estimate because 509 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,680 Speaker 11: there's a lot we don't know, but I did see 510 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 11: that a couple of days ago, the Israelis announced that 511 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 11: they thought they had destroyed about half the launchers they 512 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 11: were believed to have about two hundred launchers before the war, 513 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 11: so they may be down to about one hundred. 514 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 10: That's still significant. 515 00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 11: I haven't heard as much about like the stockpiles of 516 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 11: the missile themselves. 517 00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 10: My sense would be that you know, will know over time, I. 518 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 11: Think particularly the next couple of days, as we start 519 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,399 Speaker 11: to see, you know, to what degree they're able to 520 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 11: sustain these salvos. If we start seeing a drop off, 521 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,480 Speaker 11: then we could have a higher degree of confidence that 522 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,960 Speaker 11: we've actually managed to destroy some of this capability. 523 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:18,400 Speaker 10: But it is challenging. 524 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,359 Speaker 11: We're talking about trying to find things that are on 525 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,480 Speaker 11: trucks that can blend in. 526 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 10: These are widely. 527 00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,439 Speaker 11: Dispersed, and the Iranians were smart enough to realize that 528 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,200 Speaker 11: they shouldn't rely on a centralized command to control in 529 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:34,639 Speaker 11: Tehran for you know, leading its forces, and so local 530 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,760 Speaker 11: commanders have been author rise to conduct these strikes and 531 00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 11: makes it harder, it makes it much more resilient as 532 00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:41,120 Speaker 11: a target. 533 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:46,600 Speaker 8: All right, Kelly Grico, we so appreciate your insight and expertise. 534 00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:49,400 Speaker 8: She's senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program 535 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 8: at the Stimpson Center here with us on balance of Power, 536 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 8: and we have more coming up. We'll take you live 537 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:57,880 Speaker 8: to Capitol Hill. We're Democratic Congressman Bill Foster of Illinois 538 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,680 Speaker 8: will be joining us. He's a PhD physicist, physicist. Will 539 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,640 Speaker 8: talk more about Iran's nuclear program next on Bloomberg TV. 540 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,439 Speaker 2: Andre stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have 541 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:07,919 Speaker 2: much more coming up after this. 542 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ketsays 543 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:19,240 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple 544 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,320 Speaker 1: Coglay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 545 00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 546 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 1: New York station. 547 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 3: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 548 00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 8: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington, tracking 549 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 8: the developments we are seeing in the Middle East. Is 550 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 8: the US and Israel continue now for a fourth day 551 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 8: strikes against targets in Iran. We know thousands at this 552 00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 8: point have been hit. The President, outlining the targeting of 553 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 8: the Iranian Navy Air Force radar systems. He said, all 554 00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,160 Speaker 8: of these things have effectively been wiped out. And this 555 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,360 Speaker 8: is after remember back in June of last year, the 556 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 8: President said the US had successfully obliterated Aron's nuclear program, 557 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,920 Speaker 8: though there's been boarding of nuclear targets being involved in 558 00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 8: this as well, and we wanted to drill in on 559 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 8: the nuclear aspect here as we turn to the only 560 00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 8: PhD physicist in Congress. Democratic Congressman Bill Foster of Illinois 561 00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 8: is joining us live now from Capitol Hill. Congressman, welcome 562 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 8: back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's good to have you. 563 00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,560 Speaker 8: When we consider what we do know and what we 564 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:24,480 Speaker 8: don't know about what Iran's remaining capabilities and stockpiles were 565 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 8: after the June strike, how confident are you that we 566 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 8: can successfully and finally obliterate it now. 567 00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 12: Well, the key question that we have not yet heard 568 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 12: an answer to from the Trump administration is what has 569 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 12: become of Iran's extensive inventory of sixty percent enriched uranium. 570 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,160 Speaker 12: There is a misunderstanding a lot of people have that 571 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 12: unless it is quote unquote weapons grade ninety percent in 572 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,120 Speaker 12: enrich uranium, that it is not usable. 573 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:54,479 Speaker 3: To make a weapon. 574 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 12: But people should understand that the Hiroshima atomic bomb was 575 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:02,240 Speaker 12: a mixture of fifty percent and higher enriched uranium. The 576 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:06,360 Speaker 12: sixty percent enrich stockpile that Iran was seen to have 577 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 12: been producing by the IEAA. Was a lot can be 578 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:16,400 Speaker 12: done on that, and the administration has been forthcoming with 579 00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 12: us in terms of getting technical briefings. I have bipartisan 580 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 12: requests that got answered very well and by an an 581 00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:29,400 Speaker 12: essay about what exactly technically could Iran do with the 582 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,719 Speaker 12: stockpile of sixty percent in rich uranium, and it was 583 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:37,840 Speaker 12: it was pretty much what had been but predicted by 584 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 12: a large number of pundits where they say, look at 585 00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,640 Speaker 12: you can make a large number of a significant number, 586 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 12: a handful of Hiroshima style devices with their sixty percent 587 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 12: in rich uranium. It's a straightforward thing. The fact that 588 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 12: we've obliterated their factories to make large inventories of weapons 589 00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:01,520 Speaker 12: grade material doesn't mean much unless we have destroyed or seized, 590 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 12: or brought under inspection the inventory of sixty percent rich material. 591 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:10,280 Speaker 12: And at least we have not, in Congress got any 592 00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:12,560 Speaker 12: accounting for where that is and what we know about it. 593 00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 2: So has Congress also seen evidence that there was in 594 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:21,800 Speaker 2: fact an imminent threat posed by Iran, a nuclear threat 595 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 2: to the United States. 596 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 12: I have not seen it, and I've talked to members 597 00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:30,880 Speaker 12: of the Gang of Eight who said, among other things, 598 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,920 Speaker 12: that they had no indication that this was intended to 599 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:39,000 Speaker 12: be a decapitating strike, a clear act of war. And 600 00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:43,960 Speaker 12: the problem for a large number of members of Congress, 601 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:48,200 Speaker 12: including essentially all Democrats, is that the constitution provides a 602 00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:53,160 Speaker 12: way that this should have happened. If the nuclear negotiations 603 00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:56,440 Speaker 12: were actually stuck, then Trump should have gone to Congress, 604 00:31:56,800 --> 00:32:00,360 Speaker 12: explained the situation, ask for an authorization for the use 605 00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 12: of military force, and then waited for a target opportunity 606 00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 12: that did not happen, and that was a breach of 607 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:08,520 Speaker 12: our constitution. 608 00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,440 Speaker 8: Well, I'm not sure, Congressman, if you still see a 609 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,440 Speaker 8: path forward for negotiations over the nuclear program, if there 610 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 8: is a remaining diplomatic path here. But if there were one, 611 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 8: knowing how the president has railed against the GCPUA agreement 612 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,960 Speaker 8: that was reached during the Obama administration, do you see 613 00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,040 Speaker 8: areas in which what was that agreement should be titaned, 614 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:33,760 Speaker 8: should be changed if there is to be another one, Well, the. 615 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,160 Speaker 12: Thing that you have to do is to put in 616 00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 12: any agreement at this point that will be worth signing. 617 00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:45,040 Speaker 12: There has to be a very intrusive inspection throughout all 618 00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:50,080 Speaker 12: of Iran by the IA and other trusted authorities snap 619 00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:53,360 Speaker 12: inspections to make sure they haven't restarted it. But there 620 00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 12: is an opportunity to have a well prescribed regional reprocessing 621 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:04,080 Speaker 12: and enrichment capability that Iran could participate in. One of 622 00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,600 Speaker 12: the interesting proposals for that is to put it on 623 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 12: one of the islands in the middle of the Gulf 624 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,479 Speaker 12: that Iran owns some of them. 625 00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 3: And if you had. 626 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:21,160 Speaker 12: A very well defined enrichment facility and nuclear nuclear essentially 627 00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:25,000 Speaker 12: a pipeline for manufacturing nuclear material, but it was on 628 00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,440 Speaker 12: an island where everyone could see what they're doing, and 629 00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:28,640 Speaker 12: anyone unhappy with. 630 00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:30,120 Speaker 3: It could flatten the place. 631 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:34,840 Speaker 12: Then you could have something a satisfactory agreement where Iran 632 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,600 Speaker 12: would be able to tell its citizens that our nuclear 633 00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:41,600 Speaker 12: program continues and that anyone from Saudi Arabia to Israel 634 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,360 Speaker 12: to the United States could destroy it at a moment's 635 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,240 Speaker 12: notice if they found the material was being diverted, and 636 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,959 Speaker 12: then you could have very severe inspection. So this has 637 00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:53,880 Speaker 12: been proposed by Earning Monies of who that is responsible 638 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,440 Speaker 12: for the negotiation of the Iron Nuclear Deal, and I 639 00:33:57,520 --> 00:34:00,520 Speaker 12: think there is room for an agreement there that could 640 00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:05,600 Speaker 12: meet everyone's requirements. But my biggest question at this point 641 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:09,400 Speaker 12: is they have essentially obliterated the top level of leadership. 642 00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,960 Speaker 12: One of the only positive things about the Ayatola is 643 00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:16,440 Speaker 12: he apparently had a very strong fatwah against production of 644 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:20,759 Speaker 12: nuclear weapons. I have no idea who his successors are, 645 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:25,040 Speaker 12: what his successor's attitude towards production of nuclear weapons, because 646 00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:28,759 Speaker 12: if we have not locked down or destroyed their inventory 647 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:33,279 Speaker 12: of sixty percent rich uranium, they could very rapidly make 648 00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:37,919 Speaker 12: a handful of devices, not small compact devices you could 649 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,880 Speaker 12: put on missile, but things that could be put into 650 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,840 Speaker 12: container freights and delivered through other means. And there's a 651 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:47,120 Speaker 12: very credible threat there that we have simply not been 652 00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:49,520 Speaker 12: willing to talk about or certainly respond to. 653 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,200 Speaker 2: So it sounds like in our remaining moment here, Congressman, 654 00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,520 Speaker 2: that's your priority right now, the United States must identify 655 00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,760 Speaker 2: that missing highly enriched uranium. 656 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,080 Speaker 3: It is still somewhere in ron. Do you not believe 657 00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:03,000 Speaker 3: we know where that is? 658 00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,080 Speaker 12: I cannot talk about it, but I will say that 659 00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 12: I personally have not been given the information to give 660 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:14,080 Speaker 12: me confidence that we know what we're doing in this area. 661 00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:16,440 Speaker 3: Wellly glad you could join us. 662 00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:20,680 Speaker 2: Congressman Bill Foster Democrat Illinois eleventh district, as Kaylee mentioned, 663 00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:24,640 Speaker 2: the only PhD physicist in Congress, So we wanted to 664 00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:27,400 Speaker 2: get to that nuclear issue specifically before we assembled our 665 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:29,840 Speaker 2: political panel, and they're with us right now. Bloomberg Politics 666 00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:33,480 Speaker 2: contributors Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis. She is our Democratic 667 00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:37,120 Speaker 2: analyst and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. 668 00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:40,720 Speaker 2: Rick is our Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital, 669 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:43,920 Speaker 2: And we've talked Rick about that missing stash of highly 670 00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:48,239 Speaker 2: enriched uranium. Can we presume that the CIA has a 671 00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:50,520 Speaker 2: good sense of where that is and how important is 672 00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 2: it to find it? 673 00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:56,000 Speaker 13: Yeah, I would think that combine intelligence capabilities of Israel 674 00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,239 Speaker 13: in the US would have a pretty good sense and 675 00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:02,719 Speaker 13: have been tracking for a long time the storage and. 676 00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,279 Speaker 3: Location of that uranium. 677 00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,440 Speaker 13: I think, you know, one of the things that you 678 00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:13,120 Speaker 13: have to consider when you hear the presidents talking about 679 00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:17,640 Speaker 13: using potentially ground troops is the ability to go and 680 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:23,200 Speaker 13: safeguard that uranium. Obviously, the only thing worse than having 681 00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:25,279 Speaker 13: it in the hands of a bunch of terrorists like 682 00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:28,120 Speaker 13: the Uranians is having it in the hands of other 683 00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:32,040 Speaker 13: terrorists who you don't know, and so yeah, I would 684 00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:34,200 Speaker 13: think that there's got to be some kind of a 685 00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:38,719 Speaker 13: war plan in effect right now, not only identifying it, 686 00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,600 Speaker 13: but also with a couple of options on how to 687 00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:45,080 Speaker 13: spirit out of the country, because I don't I can't 688 00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:50,200 Speaker 13: imagine a scenario with this scale of activity where the 689 00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,240 Speaker 13: US would allow that uranium. 690 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:52,560 Speaker 3: To stay in place. 691 00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:58,200 Speaker 8: Well, so, GENI, I'd love for you to weigh in 692 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,560 Speaker 8: here on this notion. We're hearing mixed messaging from the 693 00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,600 Speaker 8: administration around what exactly the goal was or what the 694 00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:08,399 Speaker 8: remaining nuclear capabilities were of ron, if it was really 695 00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,840 Speaker 8: about the nuclear program, or about the ballistic missile program, 696 00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:13,359 Speaker 8: or about the Iranian navy, or about regime change. When 697 00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:16,000 Speaker 8: President Trump told reporters today, the worst case scenario is 698 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,960 Speaker 8: that someone comes in who was just as bad as 699 00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:23,120 Speaker 8: the Supreme leader. Is there enough clarity not just coming 700 00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:26,160 Speaker 8: from President Trump but the varying members of the administration 701 00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,400 Speaker 8: who have also been put out there to address the 702 00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,360 Speaker 8: press right now? Or do you find yourself just more confused. 703 00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:36,680 Speaker 14: More confused? And the answer to your question is absolutely know. 704 00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,840 Speaker 14: This is about as clear as mud, and that is 705 00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:43,520 Speaker 14: what makes it so incredibly dangerous. And I think your 706 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:49,040 Speaker 14: conversation with Representative Foster just encapsulates the danger here. They 707 00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:54,279 Speaker 14: have stockpiles potentially sixty percent enriched, which can be incredibly 708 00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:57,920 Speaker 14: dangerous and damaging to the world. We have no evidence, 709 00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,080 Speaker 14: as far as we have been told yet, of an 710 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,080 Speaker 14: imminent threat that required us to go in, and yet 711 00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:07,520 Speaker 14: we took out and decapitated their leadership. And by every 712 00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:12,719 Speaker 14: stretch of imagination, we have no plan in which to 713 00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,680 Speaker 14: change this regime. And even if and when we take 714 00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:20,919 Speaker 14: out this regime, who gets replaced, who goes in there, 715 00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:24,440 Speaker 14: they are likely to be just as hard line or 716 00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:29,120 Speaker 14: more hard line than the previous regime, And so that 717 00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,880 Speaker 14: is the problem. Then what are they doing, Kiley. They're 718 00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:37,520 Speaker 14: sitting there on top of sixty percent potentially enriched uranium 719 00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:43,239 Speaker 14: and whatever else. Moreover, they will completely reconstitute whatever we 720 00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,359 Speaker 14: take out. And that's why this is a really ham 721 00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:50,440 Speaker 14: fisted approach to doing this. And I think the reason 722 00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:53,799 Speaker 14: we're not hearing clear objectives is what the Secretary of 723 00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:57,400 Speaker 14: State said yesterday in Congress, which was stunning or to 724 00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,520 Speaker 14: the Gang of Eight, which was that we went in 725 00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:04,080 Speaker 14: because we were concerned that Israel was going to strike. Well, 726 00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:07,839 Speaker 14: that's like, you know me concerned that you know Joe 727 00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:09,520 Speaker 14: is going to strike you, Kaylene, and then you're going 728 00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,240 Speaker 14: to strike me, so I shoot him first. It makes 729 00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:14,879 Speaker 14: no sense, particularly, we. 730 00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:15,640 Speaker 8: Don't get violent here. 731 00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:16,759 Speaker 5: All it's a power. 732 00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:18,040 Speaker 10: And you don't get violent. 733 00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:22,440 Speaker 14: So I'm sorry to use YouTube folks as an example, 734 00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,320 Speaker 14: but it makes no sense. 735 00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:27,279 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm under fire here, Rick. 736 00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:29,799 Speaker 2: I am curious to know what your thought is though, 737 00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,640 Speaker 2: on this line that we heard again from the Secretary 738 00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,480 Speaker 2: of State yesterday and how the President responded to it today. 739 00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:38,520 Speaker 3: He was asked, did Israel force your hand? 740 00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:41,359 Speaker 2: And he said, based on the way negotiation was going, 741 00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:44,319 Speaker 2: I think they were going to attack first, and it's 742 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,480 Speaker 2: I didn't want that to happen, so, if anything, I 743 00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,200 Speaker 2: might have forced Israel's hand. We've got a minute left, Rick, 744 00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:50,320 Speaker 2: how do you read that answer. 745 00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:54,600 Speaker 13: I just am amazed by the lack of message discipline 746 00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,120 Speaker 13: coming out of the administration, and it made. 747 00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:58,279 Speaker 3: Me all of the above, right. 748 00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,799 Speaker 13: I mean, there's a lot of reasons to do an 749 00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,239 Speaker 13: operation like this, but you have to have a very 750 00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:06,799 Speaker 13: clear and consistent message to the American people as to 751 00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:10,440 Speaker 13: why are we in the process of bombing this country 752 00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:14,600 Speaker 13: and taking out their leadership as you've pointed out, and look, 753 00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,759 Speaker 13: I think it probably is some combination. But remember those 754 00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:22,880 Speaker 13: ships were brought from different theaters to surround around for months. 755 00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:26,600 Speaker 13: This has been an effort in the progress. There's been 756 00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:28,600 Speaker 13: a plan. Now that plan is being. 757 00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:32,880 Speaker 8: Carried out, all right, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzen, Bloomberg 758 00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:34,600 Speaker 8: Politics contributor is our political panel. 759 00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,839 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 760 00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,840 Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify 761 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,520 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 762 00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,399 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at New Time 763 00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,560 Speaker 2: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.