1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: China's expanding economic power and projections it will surpass the 2 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 1: US as the pre eminent commercial power have preoccupied people 3 00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: for years. But what about the idea of America as 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: a kind of rogue state in its decline, lashing out here, 5 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:25,920 Speaker 1: lashing out there. That's not a perspective you run into 6 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 1: every day, even in the Trump era. But as the 7 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 1: Trump administration rolls on, more and more countries and world 8 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 1: leaders might come to see America as the disruptor rather 9 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 1: than the stabilizer. Welcome to Benchmark. I'm Daniel Moss, the 10 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: columnist at Bloomberg Opinion in New York, and I'm Scott Landman, 11 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: an economics editor with Bloomberg New in Washington. America as 12 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 1: the economic and political renegade rather than the status quo 13 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 1: is a pretty new concept, but Bob Carr says it's 14 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: one we should take seriously. He's a former Australian Foreign 15 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:22,960 Speaker 1: minister and longtime student of US history and politics. He's 16 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 1: the author of a new book, Run for Your Life. 17 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: Bob joins US from Sydney, where he's Director of the 18 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 1: Australia China Relations Institute at the University of Technology, Sydney. 19 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 1: Bob thanks for joining us. Mike, pleasure, Dan and Scott 20 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: By pleasure to be talking to you. You've had a 21 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 1: long career in government. Before serving as Foreign Minister, you 22 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 1: are a Premier of New South Wales for ten years, 23 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: which for our American listeners is a little like being 24 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 1: both governor of New York and California combined. I should 25 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 1: also stress from the outset that you're no anti American 26 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 1: rabble rouser. But what has America traditionally meant for you. 27 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 1: We've seen America traditionally as a great sources of democratic values, 28 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: and America's had a proud and mobile, even if inconsistent 29 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 1: or patchy record evalivating human rights. I mean, there've been 30 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: moments when I have thought, I guess twenty years ago, 31 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: that if there's going to be a dominant power in 32 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: the world, then it's it's good that it's America. Then 33 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 1: came two shocks to that happy, rather optimistic view of 34 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 1: American power, and Mike, one was the invasion of Iraq. 35 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 1: In the absence of any concept of international law or 36 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:51,359 Speaker 1: any consensus in the West, the invasion of the Iraq 37 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 1: was a huge disrupting influence. The other one was America 38 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: deciding under Bush, that would really vacate leadership on on 39 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: client to change that. That really got me thinking about 40 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 1: the US. And of course under Trump, both those concerns 41 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 1: has been magnified. Let's go back a little further, Bob, 42 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: I learned about Chester A. Arthur at my eleventh grade 43 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: US history class. I can't recall all the details, but 44 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:24,679 Speaker 1: can you tell us what is the Chester A Arthur Society? 45 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 1: In the early eighties, Ion a group of friends formed 46 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 1: the Chester A. Arthur Society to have dinners and to 47 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 1: test ourselves with a paper on some aspect of US 48 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: presidential history and a series of sometimes quite challenging trivia 49 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: quizzes about about US the details of US presidential history. 50 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: It was great fun. Do you still have the meetings, Bob? 51 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: Or have you ceased them? In disgust? We ceased them 52 00:03:56,520 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: and George W. Bush because it was you got to 53 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: celebrate the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt or Abraham Lincoln. If 54 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 1: all this pageant simply lead to the disasters of the 55 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 1: George W. Bush presidency, it would be utterly impossible to 56 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 1: hold them now. I mean, I've discussed with friends who 57 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 1: like me, have been so fond of American history, the 58 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: hollowness of any any celebration of this great feast for storiography, 59 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: when it all seems to lead to the degradation of 60 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 1: a Trump presidency. How you can extoll the shrewd, level 61 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 1: headedness of Eisenhower's to term leadership of America, Let alone 62 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 1: Franklin Roosevelt's leadership in depression and war when in the end, 63 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 1: let alone Abraham Lincoln in the end, when it all 64 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: devolves on a brabel rousing populist in Donald Trump, And 65 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 1: without any sense, I might add, and I think this 66 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: is an important point, Dan Scott, without had any sense 67 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 1: of an imminent recovery, none of us believes, no, no 68 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: friends of America. It was wild friends of America. Looking 69 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,039 Speaker 1: at the Trump presidency from Australia, I think there's going 70 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 1: to be a return to liberal internationalism. China's ascendency in 71 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 1: this context isn't really a new idea. What are people 72 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 1: failing to grasp about the current moment. There are two 73 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: new elements in perceptions in Asia, and that is that 74 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 1: the China's economic rise is robust, and China's on a 75 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 1: trajectory whereby two thousand and thirty it'll have an economy. 76 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 1: According to an official Australian government assessment published in our 77 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: Foreign policy white paper out late last year, we're the 78 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: Chinese economy will be twice the size of the US economy, 79 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: and I think that's a trauma for many Americans to 80 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: contemplate no longer the as largest economy. And the second 81 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 1: thing has been the Trump presidency. Across Asia, the consensus 82 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: has formed that you cannot rely on America. It's behavior 83 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: is going to be uddly, unpredictable. Do you think with 84 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 1: regards to China, is it really the fact that China 85 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:22,799 Speaker 1: is getting that big you think is threatening America? Or 86 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,919 Speaker 1: is it the fact that China's economy is becoming so 87 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 1: much more sophisticated. I mean, it used to be all 88 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,839 Speaker 1: about sweatshops producing cheap clothes and shoes and that sort 89 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 1: of thing. They still do a fair amount of that, 90 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 1: and yet the economy has evolved so much that you 91 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: have technology powerhouses like Ali Baba, ten Cent that are 92 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: being mentioned often in the same breath as American giants 93 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 1: like Facebook, Amazon and so on. All of that's true. 94 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 1: Another way of putting it is that when Joe Biden, 95 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 1: Joe Biden used to say, he said to me, China 96 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 1: doesn't innovate. Well, that that can't be said today in 97 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: view of already have pointed to China is a great 98 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 1: source of innovation and in many respects has already overtaken 99 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: the US in innovation. And I think that makes it 100 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 1: even harder for American aggress I noticed in the New 101 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 1: York Times there's hardly any coverage of this, of China's 102 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 1: transition to an economy based on services and based on consumption. 103 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: The Chinese have already pulled off that transition. And as 104 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: I look at the pages of the New York Times 105 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 1: every day, and it's it's almost stubborn failure to cover 106 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 1: what's happened in China. I think there's that there might 107 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: be a latent American jealousy or distaste for what China represents. 108 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: And I can understand that China's pulling off this economic 109 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: transition without using the democratic means that we we'd all 110 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 1: prefer to see China using. It's it's becoming a predominantly 111 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: middle class nations, becoming by international tests, a rich country, 112 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 1: and without permitting more political freedoms. And this is this 113 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: upsets the The rule book contradicts the rule book and 114 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: the expectations that all US Democrats have had. American declinism 115 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 1: is nothing new, As you're well aware, the country has 116 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 1: a long history of reinvention. Can it do it again? Yes, 117 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 1: that's got to be admitted as a possibuilding and other 118 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 1: possibuilding is that American decline is attenuated, it stretches out. 119 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 1: None of us knows, None of us knows what form 120 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 1: American decline will take. But we ought to be focusing 121 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 1: with laser like concentration on the political crisis. There's a 122 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,959 Speaker 1: political crisis in Washington that is seeing the character of 123 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 1: the two great political parties transformed. Just think the Republican 124 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: Party is becoming a party opposed to immigration and opposed 125 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: to trade. It's also becoming the first choice, the first 126 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 1: preference the white working class American males. The Democratic Party 127 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: looks more and more like an alliance of America's rich 128 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:18,559 Speaker 1: living on the East and West coast and its welfare 129 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 1: dependent classes. Now, these these are big shifts, and the 130 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:29,719 Speaker 1: bonapartism of Trump has produced this change, and that represents 131 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 1: nothing short of a political transformation in the US. But 132 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:36,439 Speaker 1: it's only one measure of the way America has changed politically. 133 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: You could have a second career as a political analyst 134 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 1: on one of the American television networks. I think with 135 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: what you just said. But what you were just talking 136 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: about reminded me of a quote that I saw that 137 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 1: got some wide play back in when you were the 138 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,960 Speaker 1: Foreign Minister, and you said something along the lines of 139 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 1: America was one budget deal away from restoring its global 140 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 1: pre eminence. Do you think it's going to take a 141 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 1: lot more than one budget deal or one election even 142 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:12,559 Speaker 1: now to get back to that level. Yeah, I don't. 143 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 1: I don't think America can return to the liberal internationalism 144 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 1: that was once synonymous with its power and might. I 145 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 1: just can't see that happening. I think Trump is the 146 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: most transformative president since lb J or Franklin Roosevelt. He's 147 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 1: the most successful demagogue in American political history. He's a 148 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 1: true bonapartist, the leader above party, above faction. And the 149 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: fact that the Republican Party is shackled to him rather 150 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,839 Speaker 1: than the relationship being the other way around, him being 151 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 1: a product of the Republican Party and its values. All 152 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: this counts greatly. And I can't see the Democrats under 153 00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: any the candidates for presidency that are now now imaginable 154 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 1: beating him in two thousand and twenty. I see him 155 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: as a a two term president. Certainly that's the most 156 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 1: likely outcome. And I think America will be changed utterly 157 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:19,079 Speaker 1: by eight years of Trump and the Republican leadership that 158 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: will emerge after him very different from the Republican leadership 159 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 1: at the Bushy Earl let alone. What was there before 160 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: George W. Bush and before the Tea Party. How do 161 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: you get from the sense of political crisis and political 162 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: trauma to security threat. I think the political crisis in America, 163 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,439 Speaker 1: and that for once the term crisis is not is 164 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: not hyperbole, is of significance precisely because it's changing America's 165 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 1: international character. America is tearing up the rules on free trade. 166 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: The next step can only be withdrawal from the World 167 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:02,079 Speaker 1: Trade Organized Nation because it's not adhering to the rules 168 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: of the w t O. America is looking down, dusting 169 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 1: off its allies like Canada, like the Europeans. America is 170 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: saying alliances don't matter to us anymore. America seems to 171 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 1: be treating a North Korea and a Russia with more 172 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:30,599 Speaker 1: respect than it's treating Germany or the United Kingdom or Canada. 173 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 1: You can't pawn the crown of global leadership and then 174 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 1: buy it back at the old price. If there is, 175 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 1: in a stunning reverse all the election of a president 176 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 1: who wants to abandon the key tenants of Trump's leadership, 177 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:48,560 Speaker 1: then he or she is going to find it very, 178 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: very hard to rebuild alliances, to re establish respect because 179 00:12:54,440 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 1: during the eight years of Trump and during whatever follows Trump, 180 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:06,839 Speaker 1: the world Asia, for example, but the Europeans as well, 181 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 1: again to be making their own security arrangements. Australia might 182 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: be the most rusted on and the most unquestioning of allies, 183 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 1: but I suspect even Australia I would need to take 184 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: account of what appears to be happening in Southeast Asia, 185 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: that is, the Ten Nations of Asigan reach in its 186 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 1: own way accommodating Chinese power and counting on America to 187 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 1: be utterly unreliable. But let's talk about China for a moment. 188 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 1: I spent three years in China as an economics editor 189 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 1: in Beijing. It is an impressive place, but it also 190 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:53,239 Speaker 1: has its weaknesses that you might not be visible from 191 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 1: a long distance. And there's this idea that China supports 192 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 1: free and fair trade. They talk about a lot, but 193 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,080 Speaker 1: it seems like it's something that could be challenged. But 194 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: to me, at least, China does talk about free and 195 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 1: fair trade, and maybe isn't the one that's trying to 196 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 1: ratchet up the tariffs like the Trump administration is. But 197 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 1: let me ask you, is China kind of getting a 198 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: free pass right now for all of it's you know, 199 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: the many kinds of violations they've been accused of in 200 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 1: the economic arena for many years. Are those being kind 201 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 1: of looked over just because America is being such a 202 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 1: bad actor. Yes, I think they are getting a free pass. 203 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: And I think if there's a defense to be made 204 00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 1: of Trump's aggressive behavior on trade, it might be this 205 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 1: that it will greatly strengthen the hand of the reforms 206 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 1: in China. The people who do want to see the 207 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 1: Chinese economy open up, who do want to see a 208 00:14:56,680 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 1: burst of economic liberalization, It could well be that they 209 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 1: get the upper hand, and faced with the provocation and 210 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 1: the challenges of all the Trump's doing on trade, that 211 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 1: we see China introduced market based reforms at a faster 212 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 1: rate than the Party, and the government has promised to 213 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: introduce that would be good for the world, would be 214 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 1: very good for China. Already, China's got a smaller public 215 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: sector in terms of the percentage of its workforce employed 216 00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 1: by government, including state earned enterprises, than many countries in 217 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 1: the Western world, including Australia. But imagine if in response 218 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 1: to Trump reformers really forge your head in China. It 219 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 1: talked about the Asian countries making their own accommodation with China. 220 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: Why has the issue of China become so politically toxic 221 00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 1: in Australia of late Yeah, I think the government of 222 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 1: Australia tilted against China from early two thousand and seventeen, 223 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 1: so it left people like me running a think tank 224 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 1: as I am on Australia China relations saying, as I've 225 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: been saying very recently, we more or less had it 226 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 1: right as an American ally running a pragmatic China relationship 227 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: back under the prime ministership of Tony Abbott, the Prime 228 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: minister immediately before our current Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull. So 229 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 1: we've gone through a period of shock and trauma because 230 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 1: of the rapidity of China's rise. It's been a shock 231 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 1: to the inherently pro American defense and security establishment in Canberra. 232 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 1: It's just been a shock. It's been China's economic influence 233 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 1: in the region to our north and China's success in 234 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 1: its assertiveness in the South China Sea. I think Chinese 235 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 1: behavior too has contributed to the the way views of 236 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: China have turned have turned negative among the Australian leadership. 237 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:11,360 Speaker 1: China lifting the two term limit that applied to its 238 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 1: its president is the biggest element in that. But while 239 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 1: the Australian leadership has moved to a more entrenched or 240 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:25,679 Speaker 1: more flamboyant any China position, at least in terms of rhetoric, 241 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,360 Speaker 1: I mean we haven't repealed repealed our free trade agreement 242 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:33,720 Speaker 1: with the Chinese, public opinion has moved in the opposite direction. 243 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 1: The highly respected Lowing Institute, our leading foreign policy think tank, 244 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 1: produced a poll three weeks ago that showed the percentage 245 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 1: of Australians who see China more as economic opportunity than 246 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 1: security threat went up in the last year. It now 247 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 1: sits at In fact, over the last two years, I 248 00:17:55,359 --> 00:18:00,119 Speaker 1: think it's increased by five percent. So Australian views of 249 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: China's economic potential in terms of mass public opinion have 250 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 1: actually strengthened listen inclined to see China is a geo 251 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:13,359 Speaker 1: strategic threat then a couple of years ago, but which 252 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 1: to me is very interesting now. Bigger than any class 253 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 1: between China and Australia would of course be one between 254 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 1: China and the United States. And this topic has gotten 255 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 1: some attention lately because Graham Allison, a scholar at Harvard, 256 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,640 Speaker 1: published a book about the Thucidities trap, which is when 257 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:38,400 Speaker 1: one great power threatens to overshadow another conflict typically not always, 258 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:43,160 Speaker 1: but but typically is the result. Now with China going 259 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 1: down a more authoritarian path, like you mentioned, America being 260 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:50,959 Speaker 1: fundamentally reshaped by the age of Trump, how have these 261 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,359 Speaker 1: odds of such a conflict increased over the past year 262 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:58,119 Speaker 1: or two. Well, you can say that the China and 263 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: the US has moved into a trade war. You can 264 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,359 Speaker 1: say that that has got elements of a Cold war, 265 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 1: especially with America reclassifying the way it regards China and 266 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: seeing China as a strategic rival instead of a partner 267 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: or a competitor. That's a huge challenge for Australia. But 268 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,679 Speaker 1: to conservative Australian politicians in the last twenty years have 269 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 1: actually addressed it. Alexander Dana, who was Foreign Minister in 270 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: the Howard government said in two thousand and five in 271 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: respect to the prospect of a clash in the Taiwan 272 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: Strait that and wouldn't apply, that the security treaty between 273 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,879 Speaker 1: Australia and the United States would not drag us into 274 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: such a conflict, and that made a lot of people 275 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 1: pay attention. And again in two thousand and thirteen or fourteen, 276 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,400 Speaker 1: the Defense Minister in the Abbott government said in respective 277 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 1: conflict in the East China Sea that it was most 278 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 1: likely that the Answers Treaty would not apply. In other words, 279 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 1: and a conflict between China and Japan with the US 280 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 1: intervening on behalf of Japan, Australia's obligation to protect its 281 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 1: allied the US would not apply. We would not be 282 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 1: dragged into it. And you got away with that comment 283 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:25,400 Speaker 1: without any blowback in Australia. So there there two signals 284 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 1: that really stand out that even on the conservative side 285 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,640 Speaker 1: of Australia, it would be seen as not in our 286 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 1: national interest to enter a conflict between China and the 287 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:40,680 Speaker 1: United States. Only stores in the wind, but I think 288 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:45,919 Speaker 1: people in the U s state department focused on game 289 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 1: playing about these sorts of eventualities would have to take notice. 290 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: That's Australia, I guess, is the most serious and rusted 291 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:59,359 Speaker 1: on American ally in the Pacific, apart from Japan, giving 292 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 1: a strong cig no that in a show down between 293 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 1: the U S and China it would have to consult 294 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 1: its own national interests. One of the arguments advanced for 295 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 1: why a conflict between the US and China is unlikely 296 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 1: is that their capital markets and their economic systems are 297 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 1: so enmashed. What's your perspective on that argument. Yeah, I 298 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 1: support that argument. And there is now some critical assessment 299 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:29,920 Speaker 1: of Graham Allison's notion of the vicidities trap emerging, among 300 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,199 Speaker 1: other things, people pointing out that it's it's got no 301 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 1: historical residence in East Asia. It's a bit of historicism. 302 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: Because some things have happened in the past, these same 303 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,159 Speaker 1: things have got to happen in the same way in 304 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 1: the future. So I'm basically optimistic. I think a clash 305 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:52,680 Speaker 1: would be disastrous for both powers. I am worried about 306 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 1: the War Party in the United States at work in Washington, 307 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:00,879 Speaker 1: as advisors and commentators and think tankers moving around the 308 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:05,399 Speaker 1: circle of power, and I wouldn't hesitate to make the 309 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:10,400 Speaker 1: same point abount hawks in Beijing, but that simply puts 310 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 1: an obligation on the rest of this to cause in 311 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 1: realism and a bit of Kissinger style realism on the 312 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:22,640 Speaker 1: part of the the US is needed to avoid an 313 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 1: ideological cold war approach to China, which sets us up 314 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,719 Speaker 1: for the inevitability of some conflict. Bob, let's finish on 315 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 1: a slightly different note, talk about some of your days 316 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 1: in the government. One typically here's the bemoaning of the 317 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 1: age of social media, how it's become almost impossible to 318 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,760 Speaker 1: govern these days, you know, to properly develop policy, to 319 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: sell it to an increasingly distracted electorate. You lead Australia's 320 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 1: biggest state for ten years. What do you think of 321 00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,679 Speaker 1: that argument? You're I come out of a different era, 322 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:04,439 Speaker 1: out of the era of newspapers, a time when people 323 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 1: on buses and trains going to work were devowing newspapers, 324 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,400 Speaker 1: and an era when people watch the free to wear 325 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 1: TV news at night, and you can sell a message 326 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:21,440 Speaker 1: by appearing on the front pages and on the TV 327 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:26,919 Speaker 1: captual summaries of the day's events and throughout the day 328 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:31,440 Speaker 1: on that wonderful medium radio. Everything's been shattered, everything's been 329 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,919 Speaker 1: broken up, but politicians are pretty unconvincing when they complain 330 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 1: about it. If the rules have changed, you've simply got 331 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:42,880 Speaker 1: to change with the rules. And that means, if necessary, 332 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,280 Speaker 1: putting the twenty four hour media, the social media to 333 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,440 Speaker 1: your use, if you've got a good record, if you're 334 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:55,560 Speaker 1: listening to the public, if you can pitch your case, 335 00:23:56,600 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 1: the new media rules should not disadvantage. In fact, I'd 336 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,160 Speaker 1: enjoy the challenge of being back in it again, being 337 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 1: able to to take that new rule book and to 338 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,399 Speaker 1: make it work for me and for the government whose 339 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 1: workers in charge of Or you could just take the 340 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:15,200 Speaker 1: new rules and take advantage of them as much as 341 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 1: you possibly can and become president of the United States. 342 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:22,120 Speaker 1: You did once fantasize about being a senator, didn't you, Bob, Yeah, 343 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: I did. That would have been nice. I thought i'd lead. 344 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 1: In my book, I share a fantasy that I'd lead 345 00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:33,480 Speaker 1: the six Australian states in the American Union. There would 346 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: have been some disadvantages, some disadvantages applying to that, of course, 347 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 1: we would have had to live with America's gun laws. Bob, 348 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,400 Speaker 1: Thank you very much. For joining us. It's been great 349 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 1: to have you good Dan, It's been my honor. Thank you. Scott. 350 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:54,159 Speaker 1: Benchmark will be back next week. Until then, you can 351 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 1: find us on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com or 352 00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,919 Speaker 1: Bloomberg App, and podcast destinations such as full podcasts of 353 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 1: Spotify or wherever you listen. We love it if you 354 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,639 Speaker 1: took the time to rate and review the show so 355 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,719 Speaker 1: more listeners can find us. You can also find us 356 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 1: on Twitter, follow me at Scott Landman. Dan You're at 357 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 1: moss un the School Echo, and our guest is at 358 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:22,840 Speaker 1: Bob J. Carr c A r R. Benchmark is produced 359 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,880 Speaker 1: by Top Foreheads. The head of Bloomberg Podcasts is Francesco Levie. 360 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. See you next time.