WEBVTT - Ex-CDC Director: Slim Chance To Contain NYC Covid Clusters 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.240 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news kind of Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:21.360 and on Bloomberg dot com. Troubling headlines there a few 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:23.680 months ago from Mari de Blasio. Now, we knew that 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:26.119 there were certain areas in some of the boroughs of 0:00:26.200 --> 0:00:29.160 New York City that we're experiencing higher rates of infection, 0:00:29.240 --> 0:00:32.959 but certainly above three percent. It's pretty terrifying because just 0:00:33.000 --> 0:00:36.600 a couple of days ago it was below one. Yeah, exactly, 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:38.680 So is it The question is it's simply as seasonal 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:41.239 or is something else going on here? Right? And as 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:44.400 Mari de Blasio said, the problem is in primarily nine 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:46.919 of the one D forty six zip codes. But if 0:00:46.960 --> 0:00:50.159 it's an exponential spread and there's any kind of you know, 0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:53.120 bleeding over from those nine zip codes, then so suddenly 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:55.880 it's eighteen zip codes, and suddenly it's whatever the double 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:59.600 of eighteen is. Yep, you can do the mathful perfect 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:03.360 time for next guest, Dr Tom Freed, and former director 0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:05.080 of the c d C and Commission of the New 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:08.120 York City Health Department. He joins us here. Dr Freed, 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:09.800 and thanks so much for joining us. Is just just 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:11.720 perfect timing to get you on. We'd love to get 0:01:11.760 --> 0:01:14.119 your reaction to the news about the New York City 0:01:14.160 --> 0:01:19.560 infection rate. Well, we've been very concerned about what's happening here. Um, 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:24.240 We've seen for the past couple of weeks UH explosive 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:27.600 spread really in a few communities, and the question has 0:01:27.600 --> 0:01:32.000 always been is this going to spread more widely outside 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:35.319 of the community. I've said for a couple of weeks 0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:40.280 that the chances of UH controlling it in these communities 0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:44.080 are are really slim because of the combination of a 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:48.560 lot of crowding and lack of trust in the government. 0:01:48.760 --> 0:01:52.320 And that kind of combination is just legal to the 0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:55.400 ability to control it. So I expect that we will 0:01:55.400 --> 0:01:59.279 see big increases in these groups. And again the question 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:03.240 is how why LEE will see cases around New York City. 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:06.120 I'm a bit frustrated by the lack of clear information 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:08.440 from New York City since it was taken from the 0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:10.600 Health Department. We just haven't been getting the kind of 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:14.919 granular information that I would expect. Um, they've been sending 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:16.799 out news releases every day, but they don't have a 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:19.640 lot of basic information on them, not even how many 0:02:19.720 --> 0:02:23.399 tests are positive, whether people are being isolated, how long 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.760 it's taken to isolate people, whether contacts are being quarantined, 0:02:26.800 --> 0:02:30.480 what portion of cases are from quarantine contacts. These are 0:02:30.560 --> 0:02:33.960 essential indicators that we really don't know about. So I'm 0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:36.680 quite as a New Yorker, I'm quite concerned about this cluster, 0:02:37.040 --> 0:02:39.600 and I'm hopeful we'll see a better response than we 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:42.079 have so far. Just to clarify, Dr Freeden, are those 0:02:42.160 --> 0:02:47.200 questions for a city hall? Um, yes, it's basically the 0:02:47.200 --> 0:02:51.120 city government needs to provide that. And um, you know, 0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:55.000 I know they're dealing with a very challenging situation, There's 0:02:55.040 --> 0:02:59.079 no doubt about that. And the most important thing will be, too, 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:02.880 uh game trust of the affected community and figure out 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:07.160 ways to control COVID that are accepted by the community, 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:11.079 and that can be very difficult. Dr Redon. So, the 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:14.440 three percent is the daily rate of positive tests. Now, 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:16.960 that is not the r rate, although it is triple 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:18.799 the amount that we had just a few days ago. 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:22.000 These are just positive tests. Does that automatically mean that 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:25.400 the R rate around the city goes higher? And is 0:03:25.440 --> 0:03:28.360 it possible that, you know, we have different our rates, 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:32.520 that the R rates in those communities you know, expands 0:03:32.639 --> 0:03:36.640 or gets a loss m higher, but in the rest 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:40.200 of the city it could stay pretty low. Yeah. I'm 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:42.400 not a huge fan of R as a as an 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:45.320 instantaneous measure. It relies on a lot of assumptions that 0:03:45.360 --> 0:03:47.960 can be calculated in different ways. It's ironically it's very 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:50.560 easy to understand, but if you get under the hood, 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:54.320 it's quite difficult to calculate accurately. And if you look 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:57.680 at the different calculations, they both vary and have wide 0:03:57.720 --> 0:04:03.160 competent intervals. So I do think present positivity is important. However, 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:06.680 h since the city is focusing on testing high risk people, 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:09.640 even that can be a little difficult, and that's why 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:13.040 I'd rather see things like what proportion of the cases 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:16.400 do you know where they got it? And how long 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:20.320 is it taking for you to isolate people who are positive? Uh, 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:25.279 These are outcome indicators, not process indicators. We'd also like 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:30.560 to see UH number of infections by area we've had 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:34.279 over a month of around three cases a day in 0:04:34.320 --> 0:04:37.039 New York City and in that month, we still haven't 0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:41.000 had this information. In fairness, this is something that very 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:43.719 few places around the US have done, but you know, 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:46.440 we expect more from New York City. Do you think 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:48.520 this is going to play out over the coming months? 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:51.040 As uh DR freed, and obviously there's concerns on a 0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:55.120 national basis about a second wave or just the fall 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:59.200 and the winter months, you know, igniting growth rates in 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:01.720 these infections rates and so on. Is that kind of 0:05:01.760 --> 0:05:06.560 your base case scenario? Well, I don't think we should 0:05:06.600 --> 0:05:08.920 be thinking about a second wave. We're going to see 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:12.479 waves of this infection going on for many months. We 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:15.560 need to chip away at the pandemic. Even a vaccine 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:18.360 isn't going to lead to a fairy tale ending here. 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:23.400 The challenge is to reduce spread through mask wearing and 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:27.880 closures of crowded indoor places, and to stop cases and 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:32.600 clusters from spreading by a strategic testing, rapid isolation, complete 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:38.080 contact tracing, and supportive quarantine and um even when and if, 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:40.279 if and when we have a vaccine, we're going to 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:42.800 need to do all of those things. And in New 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:45.440 York City, which has suffered so much in this pandemic, 0:05:45.480 --> 0:05:50.240 it's particularly important. Yeah, it's really troubling dr freedom because 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:52.800 there was a time when it wasn't quite clear whether 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:55.440 it was a post labor day bump, and it's I 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:57.479 think pretty clear now that it's not that that, at 0:05:57.560 --> 0:06:01.000 least in these communities. It's just bread, right, just just 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:04.960 general spread. Is it for sure then that things like 0:06:05.040 --> 0:06:07.520 outdoor dining and so on, that that that we'll also 0:06:07.560 --> 0:06:11.240 see spread from that or you know, other events, other gatherings, 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:15.880 or could this be isolated. One of the reasons we 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:18.359 need really good public health work is to get a 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:21.840 better sense of where the virus is spreading. I was 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:26.080 out and about over the weekend, and you know, outdoor 0:06:26.160 --> 0:06:30.880 dining can mean very open air and likely quite safe. 0:06:31.160 --> 0:06:34.480 I also saw outdoor dining that was essentially in a 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:38.880 shed with three walls and no ventilation. That is not 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:41.800 very different from indoor dining. So we are going to 0:06:41.880 --> 0:06:46.200 have to be careful about how we reopen and prioritize 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:49.080 things like getting our kids back in school. It's really 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:52.120 important and it can be done. It just means that 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:55.040 we have to do it carefully. Make sure that teachers 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:59.280 and students and staff who are vulnerable, continue to learn 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:03.560 from distant get mask wearing up as close as possible 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:08.320 in schools, work in cohorts or pods. I think um. 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:12.880 The fact is that getting kids back to school is 0:07:13.160 --> 0:07:16.960 enormously important where they're learning for our economy, and it 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:19.880 can be done, but only if it's done very safely. 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:23.200 Dr Tom fried and thank you so much for joining us. 0:07:23.200 --> 0:07:25.120 A perfect timing here today as we get the news 0:07:25.160 --> 0:07:28.200 about New York City's daily positive rate over three for 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:30.760 the first time in months. Dr Tom Frieden, former director 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:32.680 of the CDC and Commissioner of the New York City 0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:36.600 Health Department, also president and CEO of Resolve to Save 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:39.840 Lives Again, we appreciate your thoughts here again the news 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:43.840 new York City's daily positive rate over three for the 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:46.280 first time in months. That's the bed news. The good news, 0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:50.280 perhaps is that it's relatively contained in a certain geographic 0:07:50.360 --> 0:07:55.600 areas around the city. It is time for Bloomberg Opinion. 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:59.800 We're joined today by Brooke Sutherland Deals and industrial columnists 0:07:59.800 --> 0:08:04.120 for Lumber Opinion to discuss her latest column entitled dark 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:07.440 time for aviation is about to get darker. Not what 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:12.040 the airlines needed to hear. Brooke what's the story right 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:15.720 so this week is when the billion in payroll aid 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:18.640 that was keeping a lot of those airline workers employed, 0:08:18.840 --> 0:08:22.120 is that to expire. We've had you know, numerous warnings 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:25.840 from the United Airlines and airlines in particular about the 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:29.160 volume of layoffs that would do if the aid is 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:31.960 in fact allowed to expire, and right now that does 0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:35.240 seem to be where we are headed. There's no real 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:37.920 traction out of Congress and the White House on a 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:40.880 new deal. They're trying. There's you know, some sort of 0:08:40.960 --> 0:08:44.760 lastment attempts at securing some sort of agreement here, but 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:47.000 we are getting really down to the wire and it's 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:49.880 just not clear if there is enough momentum to get 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:52.120 a deal across the line. So at the very least, 0:08:52.400 --> 0:08:56.120 you know, we may be looking at several thousand layoffs. 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:58.040 And you know, I think what doesn't get quite as 0:08:58.080 --> 0:09:00.719 much attention because obviously job there's so much of the 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:04.520 focus here, is that that initial payroll aid also included 0:09:04.559 --> 0:09:08.800 provisions guaranteeing a certain level of service out of these airlines. 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:11.240 They were required to keep a certain number of flights 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:14.920 um to locations that they had served pre pandemic. Now 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:17.840 that did get wocked back slightly just given some of 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:20.040 the very low demand on a lot of these routes. 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:22.080 But there are a lot of flights out there that 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:26.480 don't necessarily need to be kept once this payroll aid expires, 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:30.760 and so that can have much further reaching ramifications broke. 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:33.480 We're only at the end of September. Even if we 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:35.400 do come to some kind of deal, how long for 0:09:35.640 --> 0:09:38.760 will it last. We're hearing now that a vaccine may 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:41.400 not be available to everybody until you know, the middle 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:43.720 of next year, as we knew, and that even then 0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:49.439 the original vaccine it won't be perfect right now, I mean, 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:52.360 I think that's a religious point. Is what's being discussed 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:55.439 is you know what potentially in a billion in payroll aid, 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:58.280 and that would go through until March. Now, as you said, 0:09:58.559 --> 0:10:03.000 most predictions don't the vaccine widely commercially available by that point. 0:10:03.000 --> 0:10:08.120 If you look at the air space industry, in particular Boeing, Moody's, UH, 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:11.839 the International Air Transport Association, Raytheon, take your pick, all 0:10:11.880 --> 0:10:15.600 of these companies are pointing to three four as the 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:19.439 time period when traffic finally gets back to twenty nineteen level. 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:23.240 So you're right, we're in for a prolonged recovery. At most, uh, 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:25.880 an extension of the payroll Aid would just buy time, 0:10:25.960 --> 0:10:28.400 but of course that's valuable time for those thousands of 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:31.440 airline workers that have stuck around. Um. The other point 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:33.080 I do want to make is, you know, the payroll 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:38.000 Aid prevented involuntary layoffs, but there are you know, probably 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:40.280 an excess of a hundred and fifty thousand people that 0:10:40.320 --> 0:10:44.559 have taken voluntary options at the airline seas include buyouts, 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:48.720 early retirement, reduced hours, unpaid leave. Um. So there is 0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:51.200 some question about, you know, whether it's the payroll Aid 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:54.520 as it was initially structured, actually achieved its end ame 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:57.440 of preserving jobs or if you know, there were a 0:10:57.440 --> 0:10:59.680 lot of workarounds and there's no discussion at this point 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:02.880 of how just sort of them that tied, mostly just 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:05.120 because we're having trouble getting traction on any kind of 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:08.320 deal at all. So, Brooke, is the expectation that this 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:11.440 will be across the board, every company in the industry, 0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:16.160 all the big airlines will in fact announce furloughs or 0:11:16.200 --> 0:11:18.520 layoffs or is it just going to be companied by company? 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:21.280 Do you think it's really company by company and it 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:24.160 really comes down to the number of people that took 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:27.680 those voluntary options that I mentioned. Um so, Delta and 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:31.560 Southwest have both said they've gotten really good participation on 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:34.640 those from their employees and that will help them avoid 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:38.120 layoffs for at least a little While Southwest has said 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:40.400 it can hold off until the end of this year, 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:42.720 Delta has said, you know, at least for its flight 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:47.400 dependence on groundworkers, it can actually avoid layoffs until the summer. 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:52.000 Of pilots, on the other hand, are still potentially facing 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:55.320 cuts at Delta. So it is airline specific, and you know, 0:11:55.360 --> 0:11:59.000 I think the weaker carriers certainly have a harder time 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:01.680 here in terms of leather during the crisis. But you know, 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:05.400 again I go back to this does have further ramifications 0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:08.480 in the aerospace industry because of those minimum service levels. 0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:11.880 So we have seen you huge job cuts announcements out 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:15.240 of the aerospace manufacturers and suppliers, but you could potentially 0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:18.559 see those deepen because if you're not flying as many planes, 0:12:18.640 --> 0:12:21.480 that means you don't need as much maintenance and service work. 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:25.040 Um those numbers, maybe you know, I've been somewhat inflated 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:28.720 just because of these minimum service levels and those companies 0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:30.760 depend more on the number of planes that are flown, 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:32.840 not the number of people that are on them. Um, 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.160 So there is some question of whether we get the 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:38.240 deeper cuts at the manufacturers. There was a story at 0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:42.640 a Bloomberg News yesterday actually about Boeing planning some deeper 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:45.480 cuts to its workforce and reevaluating some of its real 0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:48.120 estate holding. So I don't know that was necessarily seeing 0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:50.200 the worst of this yet in terms of the fallout 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:53.440 on jobs, data from MYATA through July shows airline passenger 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:57.679 traffic was down for four straight months according to your 0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:01.960 column book. I mean, it's not that all airlines are 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:05.839 in hoots here, right, some of them have different needs 0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:07.880 to others, and it's it's it may not be in 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:11.079 everybody's interest to work together. What's happening in Washington, d C. 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:15.040 Who's taking the lead? You know? So there's been sort 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:18.840 of bipartisan support for an extension of support to airlines, 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:20.559 and I think a lot of that just comes down 0:13:20.640 --> 0:13:24.280 to it's not a great headline to have ten thousands 0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:26.920 of workers hitting you know, the unemployment figures just the 0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:29.560 months before the US election, and I don't think anybody 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:33.040 wants that we are hearing, you know, some frustration on 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:35.360 the part of other industries that have also been hit 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:38.720 hard by this crisis, whether that's the motor coach industry, 0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.480 or hotels or restaurants or small businesses or what have. 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:44.920 You think, Okay, well, why are these jobs more important? 0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:47.480 And I think that's factoring into the democrats plush to 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:50.120 say any kind of and it has to be part 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:52.480 of a broader stimulus package that we're not going to 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:56.000 single out the airlines as deserving special treatment. Now that 0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:57.719 of course has been sort of a sticking point to 0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:00.560 getting a deal fun um and you know, we'll have 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:04.400 to see these since there So Brookie mentioned minimum traffic levels. 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.000 Where are the airlines now in terms of percentage of 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:10.000 the flights that they are flying in? How much lower 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:13.360 could it go if they don't have that that minimum standard. Yeah, 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:15.839 so you know, American Airlines has already come out and 0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:18.719 said that they're planning on outright cutting some service to 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:21.720 about fifteen cities. And now those are smaller cities, but 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:24.200 there are companies based and some of those locations, and 0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:26.680 I think some of that, you know, reflects just how 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:31.160 deeply business travel has dropped. Um. But you know, uh BLO. 0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:35.000 Anys actually did a really interesting analysis finding that US 0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:38.160 airlines current flight schedule for October is about half of 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:41.320 what the carriers had been planning for that month as 0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:43.960 of August. So you're already seeing those schedules come in 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:47.040 pretty significantly. UM. Some of that, of course, is, you know, 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:50.000 once we got past the summer, there just wasn't necessarily 0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:52.720 to pick up in business travel, um, and we travel 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:55.200 that you might expect, especially after we get through that 0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:57.120 sort of summer peak. But a lot of that is 0:14:57.280 --> 0:15:00.040 the minimum services levels coming off now. You know, so 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:03.040 many smaller airports might see service cut off together, but 0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:06.400 even the larger ones are going to see flights consolidated. Um. 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:09.240 You know, you don't need to run five direct flights 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:11.880 from New York to Kansas City a day, probably just 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:14.280 need one at this point, um, and even that might 0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:16.600 not even be full. And you know, I think you're 0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:20.880 going to see these flights drops pretty significantly. Brooke, We're 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:22.760 going to leave it there, but thank you books Southerland 0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:26.880 staying on top of everything aviation related here in the 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:29.280 United States and abroad, really because it's a it's a 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:32.200 global industry, and as Brook says in our columns day 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:34.800 dark time for aviation is about to get darker. Brook 0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:38.040 is Bloomberg Opinion columnists, And that was our Bloomberg Opinion segment. 0:15:39.360 --> 0:15:41.400 All right, it is time to talk. Bankruptcy is another 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:45.920 very distressing sign of everything that's going on in the country. Well, 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:48.960 in New York, COVID bankruptcys have spiked, and according to 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.160 our next guest, they're going to spike even more. We've 0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:56.640 only just seen the beginning of the surgeon bankruptcys. Josh 0:15:56.680 --> 0:16:00.240 soul is a distressed debt reporter for Bloomberg again and 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:02.960 collaborated on the COVID bankruptcy is New York Sports Club. 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:06.120 But to Sizzler, Josh, thanks for joining give us an update. 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:10.600 Where exactly are we in the in the retail, restaurant, airline, 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:16.360 oil producer, hotel bankruptcy process? Hey Bonnie, thanks for having me. Yeah, 0:16:16.400 --> 0:16:19.200 what we saw when we looked at bankruptcy filings in 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:23.560 the New York region, which is we saw increase in 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:26.600 bankruptcy is when compared to the same period last year. 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:30.160 You know, kind of March to September is the pandemic period, 0:16:30.240 --> 0:16:32.680 and we saw a big increase. Um. We also saw 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:36.640 that about six thousand New York City businesses closed, about 0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:39.840 four thousand of those permanently. That's information from yelp. UM. 0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:42.400 That's not a complete picture, UM, but those are some 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:45.480 of the metrics we have to show that, Um, the 0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:48.280 New York region is is really there's really suffering, and 0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:50.600 what a number of experts told us is that it's 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:54.680 going to get worse. Wow. So it's interesting, Josh. I mean, 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:56.560 as I came into the city a couple of weeks ago, 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:59.600 I was just blown away, unfortunately by all the vacant 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:02.280 store is in the signs for you know, stores for 0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:05.040 for lease and gone out of business here and working. 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:07.720 And that was when there was some supports and fiscal 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:12.840 stimulus still in the marketplace. What's the expectation here for 0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:15.199 some of these business Will they be permanently closed or 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:17.680 do you think these are businesses that can come back. 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.760 What's the feeling at this point? Well, exactly what you 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:22.240 just said is so what is what some of the 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:24.760 experts highlighted, which is that as the p PP money 0:17:24.840 --> 0:17:27.480 runs out, UM, you have more businesses that just say 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:29.600 like well yeah, like it doesn't look like there's any 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:31.639 more coming and there's not really any light in the 0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:33.840 light on the horizons. So I'm gonna I'm gonna now 0:17:33.880 --> 0:17:36.639 shut down. Um, I'm not going to shut down completely. 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:39.359 And um, exactly what you saw. You can see in 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:41.760 you know, business districts all over the city. I chose 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:45.000 Madison Avenue. Um, you know, partly because it's so iconic, 0:17:45.080 --> 0:17:47.120 partly because it's close to my in law's house where 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:48.879 I where I worked during the day. But I was 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:50.880 able to walk down there on a series over there 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:53.240 on a series of afternoons and count the number of 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:56.119 shuttered buildings. And Madison Avenue, I mean, is a an 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:59.280 iconic shopping district you know, the world over, glamorous, glamorous 0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:02.000 and beautiful people spending huge amounts of money. And what 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:05.639 I saw was, um, after a careful count, you know, 0:18:07.200 --> 0:18:09.600 the stores were closed completely. Um. And the ones that 0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:12.199 were open, even the real you know, Dula and Gabana 0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:14.119 and product even like the big big names. You know, 0:18:14.160 --> 0:18:16.520 you have a couple of you know, well dressed sales 0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:19.240 salespeople and some broad shoulder and security guards kind of 0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:22.919 standing around with no customers. It was it was almost eerie, 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:25.160 how quiet, how quiet and desolate it was. Of course, 0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:26.800 and some of this is that there are no tourists 0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:29.240 coming in, and we know that a lot of tourists 0:18:29.240 --> 0:18:31.679 would go to these areas and spend money having waited 0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:34.600 a long time to get to places like Madison Avenue, Tiffany, 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:38.480 these all these famous names. But the problem also is 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:40.400 that you know when you talk about a business, it's 0:18:40.400 --> 0:18:44.919 an ongoing concern, and that that's language used for a reason. 0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:47.399 So for example, California Pizza Kitchen, which you would think 0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:49.520 was a great business that would have plenty in reserve, 0:18:49.560 --> 0:18:52.720 I mean it's gone bankrupt because businesses are ongoing concerns, 0:18:52.760 --> 0:18:55.359 and if people stop eating pizza, you don't have very 0:18:55.440 --> 0:18:59.160 much time before you have to close up shop. Exactly right. 0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:02.560 And actually I happen to be covering on my bankruptcy 0:19:02.600 --> 0:19:06.199 beat three pizza, three pizza chains or pizza operators, So 0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:08.760 Chuck E Cheese. Um, I've been listening to very sad 0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:10.639 you know, as memories of going to Chuck E Cheese 0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:12.720 as a kid. I've been listening to very very sad 0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:15.160 bankruptcy hearings. Where they where they where they're like where 0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:17.600 they where you know where they talk about like your honor? 0:19:17.680 --> 0:19:19.960 We need we need permission to destroy all of these 0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:22.359 tickets because otherwise, if they get out of the market, 0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:24.480 we're gonna be on the hook for all the prizes. Um. 0:19:24.600 --> 0:19:26.200 But these are all these are all tickets that we're 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:29.240 not going to use because no one's coming in because UM, 0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:31.440 we can't we can't be we can't be running inside. 0:19:31.480 --> 0:19:34.680 And UM. Also the biggest operator of Pizza Hut restaurants 0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:37.160 and PC also filed for bankruptcy. And then as as 0:19:37.160 --> 0:19:40.560 you mentioned, California Pizza Kitchen, and yeah, people are people 0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:43.560 aren't going out and sitting down UM. And these businesses 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:46.800 are are really hurting. UM. So yeah, they're they're very 0:19:46.800 --> 0:19:50.600 tough out there. So Josh, is there what's the next? 0:19:50.720 --> 0:19:54.320 Is there? It? I think thinking across retail in general, 0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:59.199 are they lobbying hard downa Washington for more stimulus? I 0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:01.280 think I think people would really really like to see 0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:05.160 more stimulus, definitely. UM. Another point I wanted to wanted 0:20:05.240 --> 0:20:08.560 to make is when you mentioned tourists. UM, the point 0:20:08.560 --> 0:20:10.959 that we really uh, that we really heard about from 0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:13.160 a lot of experts is that while tourists are important 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:16.240 office workers, when office workers aren't coming into the city, 0:20:16.240 --> 0:20:18.000 when they're staying at home and they're working at home. 0:20:18.240 --> 0:20:20.840 They're not They're not going to Chopped to pick up 0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:23.360 a quick twelve dollar salad. They're not going to Jimmy's 0:20:23.680 --> 0:20:26.760 to grab some lamb on rice. They're not stopping in 0:20:26.800 --> 0:20:30.080 to maybe buy a quick gift for their loved one. 0:20:30.160 --> 0:20:33.280 At Adults at dulce Um, there's just no there's just 0:20:33.320 --> 0:20:35.560 no foot traffic. And the number we heard, uh, you 0:20:35.560 --> 0:20:40.040 know about fifteen percent of office workers are back in Manhattan. Um. 0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:43.320 That's of the foot traffic you're used to. That is 0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:46.320 not enough to keep you know, a salad shop or 0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:50.600 a luxury retailer going. Yes, I regularly pump into Adulte 0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:52.639 for a little thing on my way home from my 0:20:52.720 --> 0:20:55.120 love to want you just to keep the family happy, 0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:57.080 you know, just to keep keep the kids happy. Weather 0:20:57.160 --> 0:21:02.040 jackets for everyone. Totally, so, Josh, how many of these 0:21:02.040 --> 0:21:05.480 will reorganize? You know, Judges allow time to sort of 0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:07.760 come up with a plan and in a few months 0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:09.840 of time, this conversation will be like it doesn't matter 0:21:09.880 --> 0:21:13.960 because we can go to jockeys again. You know. We 0:21:14.040 --> 0:21:18.800