1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news kind of Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Troubling headlines there a few 7 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,680 Speaker 1: months ago from Mari de Blasio. Now, we knew that 8 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,119 Speaker 1: there were certain areas in some of the boroughs of 9 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 1: New York City that we're experiencing higher rates of infection, 10 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:32,959 Speaker 1: but certainly above three percent. It's pretty terrifying because just 11 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: a couple of days ago it was below one. Yeah, exactly, 12 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: So is it The question is it's simply as seasonal 13 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:41,239 Speaker 1: or is something else going on here? Right? And as 14 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: Mari de Blasio said, the problem is in primarily nine 15 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:46,919 Speaker 1: of the one D forty six zip codes. But if 16 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 1: it's an exponential spread and there's any kind of you know, 17 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 1: bleeding over from those nine zip codes, then so suddenly 18 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: it's eighteen zip codes, and suddenly it's whatever the double 19 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: of eighteen is. Yep, you can do the mathful perfect 20 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 1: time for next guest, Dr Tom Freed, and former director 21 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: of the c d C and Commission of the New 22 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: York City Health Department. He joins us here. Dr Freed, 23 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: and thanks so much for joining us. Is just just 24 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: perfect timing to get you on. We'd love to get 25 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,119 Speaker 1: your reaction to the news about the New York City 26 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 1: infection rate. Well, we've been very concerned about what's happening here. Um, 27 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: We've seen for the past couple of weeks UH explosive 28 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: spread really in a few communities, and the question has 29 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 1: always been is this going to spread more widely outside 30 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 1: of the community. I've said for a couple of weeks 31 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: that the chances of UH controlling it in these communities 32 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: are are really slim because of the combination of a 33 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 1: lot of crowding and lack of trust in the government. 34 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: And that kind of combination is just legal to the 35 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 1: ability to control it. So I expect that we will 36 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:59,279 Speaker 1: see big increases in these groups. And again the question 37 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: is how why LEE will see cases around New York City. 38 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: I'm a bit frustrated by the lack of clear information 39 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 1: from New York City since it was taken from the 40 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 1: Health Department. We just haven't been getting the kind of 41 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 1: granular information that I would expect. Um, they've been sending 42 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:16,799 Speaker 1: out news releases every day, but they don't have a 43 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 1: lot of basic information on them, not even how many 44 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:23,399 Speaker 1: tests are positive, whether people are being isolated, how long 45 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 1: it's taken to isolate people, whether contacts are being quarantined, 46 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 1: what portion of cases are from quarantine contacts. These are 47 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 1: essential indicators that we really don't know about. So I'm 48 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 1: quite as a New Yorker, I'm quite concerned about this cluster, 49 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 1: and I'm hopeful we'll see a better response than we 50 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,079 Speaker 1: have so far. Just to clarify, Dr Freeden, are those 51 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: questions for a city hall? Um, yes, it's basically the 52 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: city government needs to provide that. And um, you know, 53 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 1: I know they're dealing with a very challenging situation, There's 54 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:59,079 Speaker 1: no doubt about that. And the most important thing will be, too, 55 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: uh game trust of the affected community and figure out 56 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: ways to control COVID that are accepted by the community, 57 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:11,079 Speaker 1: and that can be very difficult. Dr Redon. So, the 58 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: three percent is the daily rate of positive tests. Now, 59 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 1: that is not the r rate, although it is triple 60 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:18,799 Speaker 1: the amount that we had just a few days ago. 61 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 1: These are just positive tests. Does that automatically mean that 62 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 1: the R rate around the city goes higher? And is 63 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,360 Speaker 1: it possible that, you know, we have different our rates, 64 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 1: that the R rates in those communities you know, expands 65 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: or gets a loss m higher, but in the rest 66 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: of the city it could stay pretty low. Yeah. I'm 67 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: not a huge fan of R as a as an 68 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: instantaneous measure. It relies on a lot of assumptions that 69 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: can be calculated in different ways. It's ironically it's very 70 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 1: easy to understand, but if you get under the hood, 71 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 1: it's quite difficult to calculate accurately. And if you look 72 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 1: at the different calculations, they both vary and have wide 73 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: competent intervals. So I do think present positivity is important. However, 74 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 1: h since the city is focusing on testing high risk people, 75 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 1: even that can be a little difficult, and that's why 76 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 1: I'd rather see things like what proportion of the cases 77 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: do you know where they got it? And how long 78 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 1: is it taking for you to isolate people who are positive? Uh, 79 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 1: These are outcome indicators, not process indicators. We'd also like 80 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: to see UH number of infections by area we've had 81 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 1: over a month of around three cases a day in 82 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 1: New York City and in that month, we still haven't 83 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: had this information. In fairness, this is something that very 84 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 1: few places around the US have done, but you know, 85 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 1: we expect more from New York City. Do you think 86 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: this is going to play out over the coming months? 87 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 1: As uh DR freed, and obviously there's concerns on a 88 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: national basis about a second wave or just the fall 89 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: and the winter months, you know, igniting growth rates in 90 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:01,720 Speaker 1: these infections rates and so on. Is that kind of 91 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 1: your base case scenario? Well, I don't think we should 92 00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 1: be thinking about a second wave. We're going to see 93 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,479 Speaker 1: waves of this infection going on for many months. We 94 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: need to chip away at the pandemic. Even a vaccine 95 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 1: isn't going to lead to a fairy tale ending here. 96 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 1: The challenge is to reduce spread through mask wearing and 97 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: closures of crowded indoor places, and to stop cases and 98 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 1: clusters from spreading by a strategic testing, rapid isolation, complete 99 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: contact tracing, and supportive quarantine and um even when and if, 100 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 1: if and when we have a vaccine, we're going to 101 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: need to do all of those things. And in New 102 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 1: York City, which has suffered so much in this pandemic, 103 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 1: it's particularly important. Yeah, it's really troubling dr freedom because 104 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 1: there was a time when it wasn't quite clear whether 105 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 1: it was a post labor day bump, and it's I 106 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:57,479 Speaker 1: think pretty clear now that it's not that that, at 107 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 1: least in these communities. It's just bread, right, just just 108 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: general spread. Is it for sure then that things like 109 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 1: outdoor dining and so on, that that that we'll also 110 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: see spread from that or you know, other events, other gatherings, 111 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 1: or could this be isolated. One of the reasons we 112 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,359 Speaker 1: need really good public health work is to get a 113 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 1: better sense of where the virus is spreading. I was 114 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 1: out and about over the weekend, and you know, outdoor 115 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 1: dining can mean very open air and likely quite safe. 116 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 1: I also saw outdoor dining that was essentially in a 117 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 1: shed with three walls and no ventilation. That is not 118 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 1: very different from indoor dining. So we are going to 119 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: have to be careful about how we reopen and prioritize 120 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: things like getting our kids back in school. It's really 121 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: important and it can be done. It just means that 122 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 1: we have to do it carefully. Make sure that teachers 123 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 1: and students and staff who are vulnerable, continue to learn 124 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 1: from distant get mask wearing up as close as possible 125 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 1: in schools, work in cohorts or pods. I think um. 126 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 1: The fact is that getting kids back to school is 127 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: enormously important where they're learning for our economy, and it 128 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 1: can be done, but only if it's done very safely. 129 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: Dr Tom fried and thank you so much for joining us. 130 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: A perfect timing here today as we get the news 131 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 1: about New York City's daily positive rate over three for 132 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: the first time in months. Dr Tom Frieden, former director 133 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: of the CDC and Commissioner of the New York City 134 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 1: Health Department, also president and CEO of Resolve to Save 135 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 1: Lives Again, we appreciate your thoughts here again the news 136 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 1: new York City's daily positive rate over three for the 137 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 1: first time in months. That's the bed news. The good news, 138 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 1: perhaps is that it's relatively contained in a certain geographic 139 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: areas around the city. It is time for Bloomberg Opinion. 140 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: We're joined today by Brooke Sutherland Deals and industrial columnists 141 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 1: for Lumber Opinion to discuss her latest column entitled dark 142 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 1: time for aviation is about to get darker. Not what 143 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 1: the airlines needed to hear. Brooke what's the story right 144 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: so this week is when the billion in payroll aid 145 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 1: that was keeping a lot of those airline workers employed, 146 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 1: is that to expire. We've had you know, numerous warnings 147 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 1: from the United Airlines and airlines in particular about the 148 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: volume of layoffs that would do if the aid is 149 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:31,960 Speaker 1: in fact allowed to expire, and right now that does 150 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 1: seem to be where we are headed. There's no real 151 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 1: traction out of Congress and the White House on a 152 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: new deal. They're trying. There's you know, some sort of 153 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 1: lastment attempts at securing some sort of agreement here, but 154 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: we are getting really down to the wire and it's 155 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 1: just not clear if there is enough momentum to get 156 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 1: a deal across the line. So at the very least, 157 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: you know, we may be looking at several thousand layoffs. 158 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: And you know, I think what doesn't get quite as 159 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,719 Speaker 1: much attention because obviously job there's so much of the 160 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 1: focus here, is that that initial payroll aid also included 161 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: provisions guaranteeing a certain level of service out of these airlines. 162 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 1: They were required to keep a certain number of flights 163 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 1: um to locations that they had served pre pandemic. Now 164 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 1: that did get wocked back slightly just given some of 165 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: the very low demand on a lot of these routes. 166 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: But there are a lot of flights out there that 167 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 1: don't necessarily need to be kept once this payroll aid expires, 168 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 1: and so that can have much further reaching ramifications broke. 169 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 1: We're only at the end of September. Even if we 170 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: do come to some kind of deal, how long for 171 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 1: will it last. We're hearing now that a vaccine may 172 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 1: not be available to everybody until you know, the middle 173 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 1: of next year, as we knew, and that even then 174 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:49,439 Speaker 1: the original vaccine it won't be perfect right now, I mean, 175 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: I think that's a religious point. Is what's being discussed 176 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,439 Speaker 1: is you know what potentially in a billion in payroll aid, 177 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: and that would go through until March. Now, as you said, 178 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 1: most predictions don't the vaccine widely commercially available by that point. 179 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 1: If you look at the air space industry, in particular Boeing, Moody's, UH, 180 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,839 Speaker 1: the International Air Transport Association, Raytheon, take your pick, all 181 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 1: of these companies are pointing to three four as the 182 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:19,439 Speaker 1: time period when traffic finally gets back to twenty nineteen level. 183 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: So you're right, we're in for a prolonged recovery. At most, uh, 184 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: an extension of the payroll Aid would just buy time, 185 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 1: but of course that's valuable time for those thousands of 186 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 1: airline workers that have stuck around. Um. The other point 187 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: I do want to make is, you know, the payroll 188 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 1: Aid prevented involuntary layoffs, but there are you know, probably 189 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 1: an excess of a hundred and fifty thousand people that 190 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:44,559 Speaker 1: have taken voluntary options at the airline seas include buyouts, 191 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 1: early retirement, reduced hours, unpaid leave. Um. So there is 192 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,200 Speaker 1: some question about, you know, whether it's the payroll Aid 193 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: as it was initially structured, actually achieved its end ame 194 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 1: of preserving jobs or if you know, there were a 195 00:10:57,440 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 1: lot of workarounds and there's no discussion at this point 196 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 1: of how just sort of them that tied, mostly just 197 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: because we're having trouble getting traction on any kind of 198 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 1: deal at all. So, Brooke, is the expectation that this 199 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:11,440 Speaker 1: will be across the board, every company in the industry, 200 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 1: all the big airlines will in fact announce furloughs or 201 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 1: layoffs or is it just going to be companied by company? 202 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 1: Do you think it's really company by company and it 203 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: really comes down to the number of people that took 204 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 1: those voluntary options that I mentioned. Um so, Delta and 205 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:31,560 Speaker 1: Southwest have both said they've gotten really good participation on 206 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 1: those from their employees and that will help them avoid 207 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 1: layoffs for at least a little While Southwest has said 208 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: it can hold off until the end of this year, 209 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,720 Speaker 1: Delta has said, you know, at least for its flight 210 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 1: dependence on groundworkers, it can actually avoid layoffs until the summer. 211 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 1: Of pilots, on the other hand, are still potentially facing 212 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 1: cuts at Delta. So it is airline specific, and you know, 213 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: I think the weaker carriers certainly have a harder time 214 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 1: here in terms of leather during the crisis. But you know, 215 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 1: again I go back to this does have further ramifications 216 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 1: in the aerospace industry because of those minimum service levels. 217 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: So we have seen you huge job cuts announcements out 218 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 1: of the aerospace manufacturers and suppliers, but you could potentially 219 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,559 Speaker 1: see those deepen because if you're not flying as many planes, 220 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 1: that means you don't need as much maintenance and service work. 221 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: Um those numbers, maybe you know, I've been somewhat inflated 222 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: just because of these minimum service levels and those companies 223 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: depend more on the number of planes that are flown, 224 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 1: not the number of people that are on them. Um, 225 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 1: So there is some question of whether we get the 226 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 1: deeper cuts at the manufacturers. There was a story at 227 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg News yesterday actually about Boeing planning some deeper 228 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 1: cuts to its workforce and reevaluating some of its real 229 00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 1: estate holding. So I don't know that was necessarily seeing 230 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,200 Speaker 1: the worst of this yet in terms of the fallout 231 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 1: on jobs, data from MYATA through July shows airline passenger 232 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:57,679 Speaker 1: traffic was down for four straight months according to your 233 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 1: column book. I mean, it's not that all airlines are 234 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,839 Speaker 1: in hoots here, right, some of them have different needs 235 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: to others, and it's it's it may not be in 236 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:11,079 Speaker 1: everybody's interest to work together. What's happening in Washington, d C. 237 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 1: Who's taking the lead? You know? So there's been sort 238 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 1: of bipartisan support for an extension of support to airlines, 239 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:20,559 Speaker 1: and I think a lot of that just comes down 240 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 1: to it's not a great headline to have ten thousands 241 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 1: of workers hitting you know, the unemployment figures just the 242 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 1: months before the US election, and I don't think anybody 243 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: wants that we are hearing, you know, some frustration on 244 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 1: the part of other industries that have also been hit 245 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 1: hard by this crisis, whether that's the motor coach industry, 246 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 1: or hotels or restaurants or small businesses or what have. 247 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 1: You think, Okay, well, why are these jobs more important? 248 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 1: And I think that's factoring into the democrats plush to 249 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 1: say any kind of and it has to be part 250 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: of a broader stimulus package that we're not going to 251 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 1: single out the airlines as deserving special treatment. Now that 252 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:57,719 Speaker 1: of course has been sort of a sticking point to 253 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 1: getting a deal fun um and you know, we'll have 254 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: to see these since there So Brookie mentioned minimum traffic levels. 255 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: Where are the airlines now in terms of percentage of 256 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 1: the flights that they are flying in? How much lower 257 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 1: could it go if they don't have that that minimum standard. Yeah, 258 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,839 Speaker 1: so you know, American Airlines has already come out and 259 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:18,719 Speaker 1: said that they're planning on outright cutting some service to 260 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 1: about fifteen cities. And now those are smaller cities, but 261 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: there are companies based and some of those locations, and 262 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 1: I think some of that, you know, reflects just how 263 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 1: deeply business travel has dropped. Um. But you know, uh BLO. 264 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: Anys actually did a really interesting analysis finding that US 265 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: airlines current flight schedule for October is about half of 266 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 1: what the carriers had been planning for that month as 267 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: of August. So you're already seeing those schedules come in 268 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 1: pretty significantly. UM. Some of that, of course, is, you know, 269 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: once we got past the summer, there just wasn't necessarily 270 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 1: to pick up in business travel, um, and we travel 271 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 1: that you might expect, especially after we get through that 272 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: sort of summer peak. But a lot of that is 273 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,040 Speaker 1: the minimum services levels coming off now. You know, so 274 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: many smaller airports might see service cut off together, but 275 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 1: even the larger ones are going to see flights consolidated. Um. 276 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 1: You know, you don't need to run five direct flights 277 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 1: from New York to Kansas City a day, probably just 278 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 1: need one at this point, um, and even that might 279 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: not even be full. And you know, I think you're 280 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 1: going to see these flights drops pretty significantly. Brooke, We're 281 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 1: going to leave it there, but thank you books Southerland 282 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 1: staying on top of everything aviation related here in the 283 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: United States and abroad, really because it's a it's a 284 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 1: global industry, and as Brook says in our columns day 285 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 1: dark time for aviation is about to get darker. Brook 286 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Opinion columnists, And that was our Bloomberg Opinion segment. 287 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 1: All right, it is time to talk. Bankruptcy is another 288 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 1: very distressing sign of everything that's going on in the country. Well, 289 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 1: in New York, COVID bankruptcys have spiked, and according to 290 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,160 Speaker 1: our next guest, they're going to spike even more. We've 291 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 1: only just seen the beginning of the surgeon bankruptcys. Josh 292 00:15:56,680 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 1: soul is a distressed debt reporter for Bloomberg again and 293 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 1: collaborated on the COVID bankruptcy is New York Sports Club. 294 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 1: But to Sizzler, Josh, thanks for joining give us an update. 295 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: Where exactly are we in the in the retail, restaurant, airline, 296 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 1: oil producer, hotel bankruptcy process? Hey Bonnie, thanks for having me. Yeah, 297 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 1: what we saw when we looked at bankruptcy filings in 298 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 1: the New York region, which is we saw increase in 299 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 1: bankruptcy is when compared to the same period last year. 300 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: You know, kind of March to September is the pandemic period, 301 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 1: and we saw a big increase. Um. We also saw 302 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: that about six thousand New York City businesses closed, about 303 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 1: four thousand of those permanently. That's information from yelp. UM. 304 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 1: That's not a complete picture, UM, but those are some 305 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 1: of the metrics we have to show that, Um, the 306 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 1: New York region is is really there's really suffering, and 307 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 1: what a number of experts told us is that it's 308 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 1: going to get worse. Wow. So it's interesting, Josh. I mean, 309 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 1: as I came into the city a couple of weeks ago, 310 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 1: I was just blown away, unfortunately by all the vacant 311 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 1: store is in the signs for you know, stores for 312 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: for lease and gone out of business here and working. 313 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 1: And that was when there was some supports and fiscal 314 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 1: stimulus still in the marketplace. What's the expectation here for 315 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,199 Speaker 1: some of these business Will they be permanently closed or 316 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,680 Speaker 1: do you think these are businesses that can come back. 317 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: What's the feeling at this point? Well, exactly what you 318 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 1: just said is so what is what some of the 319 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 1: experts highlighted, which is that as the p PP money 320 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 1: runs out, UM, you have more businesses that just say 321 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 1: like well yeah, like it doesn't look like there's any 322 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:31,639 Speaker 1: more coming and there's not really any light in the 323 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 1: light on the horizons. So I'm gonna I'm gonna now 324 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:36,639 Speaker 1: shut down. Um, I'm not going to shut down completely. 325 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 1: And um, exactly what you saw. You can see in 326 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 1: you know, business districts all over the city. I chose 327 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 1: Madison Avenue. Um, you know, partly because it's so iconic, 328 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:47,120 Speaker 1: partly because it's close to my in law's house where 329 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 1: I where I worked during the day. But I was 330 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:50,880 Speaker 1: able to walk down there on a series over there 331 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 1: on a series of afternoons and count the number of 332 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 1: shuttered buildings. And Madison Avenue, I mean, is a an 333 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 1: iconic shopping district you know, the world over, glamorous, glamorous 334 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 1: and beautiful people spending huge amounts of money. And what 335 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 1: I saw was, um, after a careful count, you know, 336 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 1: the stores were closed completely. Um. And the ones that 337 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,199 Speaker 1: were open, even the real you know, Dula and Gabana 338 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 1: and product even like the big big names. You know, 339 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 1: you have a couple of you know, well dressed sales 340 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 1: salespeople and some broad shoulder and security guards kind of 341 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,919 Speaker 1: standing around with no customers. It was it was almost eerie, 342 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 1: how quiet, how quiet and desolate it was. Of course, 343 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: and some of this is that there are no tourists 344 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:29,240 Speaker 1: coming in, and we know that a lot of tourists 345 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:31,679 Speaker 1: would go to these areas and spend money having waited 346 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: a long time to get to places like Madison Avenue, Tiffany, 347 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 1: these all these famous names. But the problem also is 348 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:40,400 Speaker 1: that you know when you talk about a business, it's 349 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:44,919 Speaker 1: an ongoing concern, and that that's language used for a reason. 350 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 1: So for example, California Pizza Kitchen, which you would think 351 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: was a great business that would have plenty in reserve, 352 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 1: I mean it's gone bankrupt because businesses are ongoing concerns, 353 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,359 Speaker 1: and if people stop eating pizza, you don't have very 354 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:59,160 Speaker 1: much time before you have to close up shop. Exactly right. 355 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: And actually I happen to be covering on my bankruptcy 356 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:06,199 Speaker 1: beat three pizza, three pizza chains or pizza operators, So 357 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 1: Chuck E Cheese. Um, I've been listening to very sad 358 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:10,639 Speaker 1: you know, as memories of going to Chuck E Cheese 359 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 1: as a kid. I've been listening to very very sad 360 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 1: bankruptcy hearings. Where they where they where they're like where 361 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 1: they where you know where they talk about like your honor? 362 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,960 Speaker 1: We need we need permission to destroy all of these 363 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 1: tickets because otherwise, if they get out of the market, 364 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 1: we're gonna be on the hook for all the prizes. Um. 365 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 1: But these are all these are all tickets that we're 366 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 1: not going to use because no one's coming in because UM, 367 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:31,440 Speaker 1: we can't we can't be we can't be running inside. 368 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,680 Speaker 1: And UM. Also the biggest operator of Pizza Hut restaurants 369 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 1: and PC also filed for bankruptcy. And then as as 370 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 1: you mentioned, California Pizza Kitchen, and yeah, people are people 371 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,560 Speaker 1: aren't going out and sitting down UM. And these businesses 372 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 1: are are really hurting. UM. So yeah, they're they're very 373 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: tough out there. So Josh, is there what's the next? 374 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 1: Is there? It? I think thinking across retail in general, 375 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:59,199 Speaker 1: are they lobbying hard downa Washington for more stimulus? I 376 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 1: think I think people would really really like to see 377 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:05,160 Speaker 1: more stimulus, definitely. UM. Another point I wanted to wanted 378 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: to make is when you mentioned tourists. UM, the point 379 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,959 Speaker 1: that we really uh, that we really heard about from 380 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,160 Speaker 1: a lot of experts is that while tourists are important 381 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 1: office workers, when office workers aren't coming into the city, 382 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 1: when they're staying at home and they're working at home. 383 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 1: They're not They're not going to Chopped to pick up 384 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:23,360 Speaker 1: a quick twelve dollar salad. They're not going to Jimmy's 385 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 1: to grab some lamb on rice. They're not stopping in 386 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 1: to maybe buy a quick gift for their loved one. 387 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 1: At Adults at dulce Um, there's just no there's just 388 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 1: no foot traffic. And the number we heard, uh, you 389 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 1: know about fifteen percent of office workers are back in Manhattan. Um. 390 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 1: That's of the foot traffic you're used to. That is 391 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 1: not enough to keep you know, a salad shop or 392 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 1: a luxury retailer going. Yes, I regularly pump into Adulte 393 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:52,639 Speaker 1: for a little thing on my way home from my 394 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,120 Speaker 1: love to want you just to keep the family happy, 395 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: you know, just to keep keep the kids happy. Weather 396 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: jackets for everyone. Totally, so, Josh, how many of these 397 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 1: will reorganize? You know, Judges allow time to sort of 398 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 1: come up with a plan and in a few months 399 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: of time, this conversation will be like it doesn't matter 400 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 1: because we can go to jockeys again. You know. We 401 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 1: we we're talking about some we're talking about permanent closures here. Um, 402 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 1: the New York Uh, the Business Group in New York 403 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,920 Speaker 1: estimated that up to a third of New York City 404 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:29,719 Speaker 1: businesses could close completely. Um. And a lot of our 405 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 1: favorite a lot of our favorite shops. Um, they don't 406 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,400 Speaker 1: even file for bankruptcy, they just lock up that They 407 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 1: just sometimes they just locked the door and walk away. 408 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 1: So UM, there will be some there will be some restructurings. UM, 409 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: but we're also going to see some just you're never 410 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 1: gonna have your your favorite eggs and bacon at your 411 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 1: at your corner diner because that place is just gone. Hey, Josh, 412 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us and for this reporting. 413 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:57,880 Speaker 1: Josh Saul Distressed Debt and Bankrpacity Reporter. Uh, fantastic column today, 414 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,720 Speaker 1: Very very dire the economic situation in New York and 415 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 1: likely to get worse. Well, not that the market didn't 416 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 1: have enough to deal with in terms of external uncertainties 417 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,159 Speaker 1: with the pandemic and the economic fallout. Now in the 418 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,680 Speaker 1: US big election coming up in just a matter of weeks. 419 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 1: To get a sense of how one of the largest 420 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,399 Speaker 1: institutional investors in the world is thinking about it, we 421 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: welcome Andy Blocker ahead of US Government Affairs for invest go. 422 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 1: They have over one point one trillion dollars in assets 423 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 1: under management. He joins us in Washington, Andy, thanks so 424 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 1: much for joining us here. Let's focus on the election. 425 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:37,360 Speaker 1: One of the key issues that I think concerns investors 426 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:41,919 Speaker 1: is what if this is not a smooth, clean, timely election. 427 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:45,439 Speaker 1: What if there's some level of UH people contesting the 428 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: election and maybe even delaying the announcement of some results. 429 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:53,160 Speaker 1: How do you guys think that's going to play out? So, Paul, 430 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,199 Speaker 1: thanks for having me on UM. I think that's a 431 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,399 Speaker 1: great question. That's a question on a lot of people's 432 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,360 Speaker 1: mind right now. I think it's pretty clear that with 433 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:04,720 Speaker 1: mail in voting and the pandemic situation, that we may 434 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:08,200 Speaker 1: not know the ultimate winner on the night of the election, 435 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 1: but we could know it within the next couple of 436 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 1: days of the election. So I don't really see it 437 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: as being a long term uncertainty. But for any peats 438 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 1: uncertainty there definitely creates volatility in the market, but longer 439 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,119 Speaker 1: term it really doesn't have an impact. So all of 440 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,399 Speaker 1: the choices that you've been making for your clients and 441 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 1: so on, are you sticking with them or is there 442 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:32,160 Speaker 1: anything that would make you change some of those There's 443 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 1: nothing really that's helping us, making us change it right now. 444 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:38,359 Speaker 1: I think it's really we're right now saying, look, any 445 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 1: volatility is going to happen, it's going to be more 446 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 1: short term. And there are some issues out there visa 447 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: vis Um Biden and Trump where there may be a difference, 448 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 1: but those are on the micro level, not on the 449 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,919 Speaker 1: macro level. On the macro level, we don't think it 450 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 1: matters who is the president. But on the micro level, 451 00:23:55,040 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: we do think certain sectors were paying attention are definitely healthcare, tech, um, 452 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 1: building in trades, fossil fuel. Those are things we're looking 453 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:06,480 Speaker 1: at very closely because their problicies are much different. So, Andy, 454 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:10,440 Speaker 1: how about a scenario that some people paint us, you know, possibly, 455 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 1: certainly possible, is a democratic administration as well as a 456 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,720 Speaker 1: democratic Senate. How does that play out for you guys, 457 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:22,360 Speaker 1: because that is what some people are beginning to discount. Yeah, So, 458 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:26,880 Speaker 1: if if Vice President Biden is able to become president um, 459 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 1: there's a more likely chance that he also takes the Senate. 460 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 1: And as we know historically, when one party has all 461 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:38,160 Speaker 1: levels of power in the government, presidency, House, and Senate, 462 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,359 Speaker 1: that's a chance for some major legislation. We saw with 463 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:45,439 Speaker 1: Obamacare under Obama. We saw the first two years of 464 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 1: Trump he was able to get major tax reformed through. 465 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,480 Speaker 1: So that will clear the way for some major palsy changes. 466 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,960 Speaker 1: I think, UM, Vice President Biden would would focus first 467 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,359 Speaker 1: and foremost on infrastructure and dealing with and dealing with 468 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:03,560 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen response UM and UM, I think that could 469 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 1: see a lot of changes that could impact people. Healthcare 470 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 1: is another thing we're looking at. UM. You definitely want 471 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,920 Speaker 1: to want to expand on Obamacare, and that's going to 472 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 1: affect a lot of companies in those sectors enough to 473 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 1: make you sort of want to buy those companies or 474 00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 1: sell those companies. And when do you make that decision? 475 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 1: Is it the day after the election resulted out? Well, 476 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 1: you try to beat it actually, so yes, UM, I 477 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 1: think Look, I mean with last with two thousands sixteen 478 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 1: and the surprise we had there, I think it's kind 479 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 1: of tough on that. But I think there's some areas 480 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:38,280 Speaker 1: where UM. I don't want to be too specific on 481 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,400 Speaker 1: this because it's it's too fluid right now, but yes, 482 00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 1: we are making sure that the people we're revising no 483 00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:49,080 Speaker 1: the right areas to go. UM. Look, health, health insurance, 484 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 1: is even outside the election. It's really about the Supreme 485 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,679 Speaker 1: Court right now. If you look at the health insurance sector, 486 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: how impact it would be within the discussion on Obamacare 487 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 1: and whether it's constitutional, that's that's in the front and center. 488 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,880 Speaker 1: So we're looking at a lot of those areas. So, Andy, 489 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:06,919 Speaker 1: one of the areas that the market liked when President 490 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 1: Trump was elected was the one of regulation. The expectation 491 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 1: that a Republican president with Republican Senate, uh, would be 492 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:19,639 Speaker 1: deregulatory is the opposite, uh, kind of on your menu 493 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: if the Senate and the White House go democratic here, Yeah, 494 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 1: So I think if if the if Biden is elected president, 495 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:35,240 Speaker 1: regardless of the Senate, the regulatory burden will increase. Okay, 496 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,919 Speaker 1: We're gonna go from a de regulatory environment to at 497 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 1: least a neutral in some sectors and m a reversal 498 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 1: on others. If he has a Senate, it will happen 499 00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 1: even faster because there's something called the Congressional Review Act, 500 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 1: which Trump used in two thousand six seventeen when he's 501 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 1: elected to reverse some of the last minute proposals that 502 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 1: the Obama administration put through. So anything done the second 503 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,399 Speaker 1: half of this year would potentially be in jeopardy of 504 00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,439 Speaker 1: just being reversed immediately with a majority vote in the 505 00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 1: House and Senate in the signature of the president. And 506 00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 1: then from there, I think there would be an effort 507 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:13,719 Speaker 1: on some environmental policy and financial regulation to continue along 508 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 1: a different path. What's your review right now on the 509 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 1: possibility of stimulus and when it might get done, if 510 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:24,360 Speaker 1: at all? So as far as um, if you're talking 511 00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,200 Speaker 1: about COVID nineteam release that's currently being debated this year 512 00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 1: before the election, Um, look, I mean there's efforts. I 513 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 1: think Speaker Pelosi and Sectary Treasure Minution have been talking consistently. Um. 514 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 1: I think Speaker Pelosi is gonna put a new bill 515 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,640 Speaker 1: on the floor this week. But right now we don't 516 00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,840 Speaker 1: really see a leverage point for that happening. It's it's 517 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,040 Speaker 1: tough to get by parts and cooperation in the middle 518 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:50,919 Speaker 1: of of a full blown election season. But we do 519 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 1: think it eventually happen. It just may not have until 520 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 1: the after the election. But once it happens, I think 521 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 1: it will be in you know, the one point five 522 00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:02,199 Speaker 1: chillion dollar range. So, Andy, are you surprised that we 523 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 1: haven't gotten something done here? I mean the need appears 524 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,560 Speaker 1: to be really acute here. We just had some news 525 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:12,399 Speaker 1: today about the difficult difficult times that the retailers in 526 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,159 Speaker 1: New York City are facing. It just seems to be 527 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 1: so acute, and it seems to be an election year, 528 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:21,159 Speaker 1: why not pass it? I think there are some pressure points. 529 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,360 Speaker 1: I think you've mentioned one of them also, the airlines 530 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,440 Speaker 1: that said if they don't get relief October one, they're 531 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 1: gonna lay offensive sounds of workers. You have those who 532 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,159 Speaker 1: are unemployed who are no longer getting the six hundred 533 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:35,520 Speaker 1: dollars additional each week. UM. So there are different pressure points. 534 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 1: But politically right now, things haven't aligned, and so we're 535 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 1: looking for those leverage points to push them. They haven't. 536 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 1: Really it's not there yet, and but I do think 537 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 1: it's enough there. That's why I think Speaker Pelosi is 538 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 1: putting together another bill to pass this week. I think 539 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 1: a lot of her UM moderate members are feeling a 540 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,200 Speaker 1: lot of pressure to get something done. All right, our 541 00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:01,280 Speaker 1: thanks to you indeed for joining us today, and we'll 542 00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,959 Speaker 1: hopefully talk to you again after this debate and before 543 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,280 Speaker 1: the election. Great chatting with you, Andy Blocker. Ahead of 544 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 1: US Government Affairs Investco, which of course has one point 545 00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 1: one four or five trillion in assets under management. We 546 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,280 Speaker 1: do have some more headlines that are a little bit traveling. 547 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 1: New York COVID patients hospitalized now are at the highest 548 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,960 Speaker 1: since August seventh poll. So that's five d seventy one 549 00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: people hospitalized. And we had the data out a few 550 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 1: moments ago the numbers that are actually testing positive, and 551 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,840 Speaker 1: it was above a thousand again, so eighty nine. So 552 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 1: yesterday was a one day reprieve and we're back up 553 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 1: above a thousand again. Yeah, and I guess the only 554 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:40,240 Speaker 1: silver lining I can take from the story is that 555 00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:44,680 Speaker 1: it's relatively regionally located in small areas, so hopefully the 556 00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 1: city can really contain it and treat it in the 557 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 1: short term. Yeah. And indeed, you know, the mayor said 558 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:56,400 Speaker 1: that testers were sent out as well, so hopefully if 559 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 1: if they have been out of those areas, we'll know 560 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 1: where and be able to dampen it. Thanks for listening 561 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,360 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to 562 00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:11,240 Speaker 1: interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 563 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 1: I'm Bonnie Quinn, I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and 564 00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,120 Speaker 1: I'm Paul Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before 565 00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg 566 00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 1: Radio