1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh to Washington, d C, 2 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve unders to San Francisco, Bloomberg 3 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:18,280 Speaker 1: to the country General one and around the globe the 4 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:22,919 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio plus Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. 5 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 1: Good boy gonna say thirty on Wall Street. I Michael McKee, 6 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 1: along with Tom Keane. Economic indicators are coming out this 7 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: morning now fast and furious vide. Little Judas is at 8 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,599 Speaker 1: the first Word desk, and we have an upward revision 9 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:43,480 Speaker 1: to that awful first quarter GDP. Michael, Yes, economic growth 10 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 1: first quarter up one point one percent and an annual 11 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 1: rate a bit higher than forecasts, a bit higher than 12 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 1: the prior estimates, still the lowest since the first quarter 13 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 1: of fifteen. Where do we go now? Econdom a survey 14 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 1: by Bloomberg looking for the current quarter, the second quarter 15 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: growth of two point five percent, third quarter and fourth 16 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: quarter to point four percent, again just crossing the Bloomberg 17 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 1: revised data first quarter GDP and increase of one point 18 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 1: one percent higher than the prior estimate, still the weakest 19 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:15,959 Speaker 1: in the year. At the Bloombark First Word gast company 20 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 1: Dell JUDI, let's go back to New York and Michael 21 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 1: go through consumption here, which shocks lower. I mean, it's 22 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: an interesting mixed change, even though we went from one 23 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 1: two uh one point one. Yeah. Well, the interesting headline 24 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: number is that it's more than double the initial um uh, 25 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 1: the the initial report of g d P in the quarters. 26 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 1: So it does raise some questions about what we're seeing. 27 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 1: Corporate profits were revised up to a one point eight 28 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: percent gain from a three tense rise. There's been, of course, 29 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 1: this story that corporate profits are in a tail spin 30 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: and we're in a profit recession, and that doesn't suggest 31 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: that necessarily we are. I'm not sure what happened to 32 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 1: first quarter consumer spending. Obviously you must have taken the 33 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 1: credit card away from the did that's say one? Yeah, 34 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 1: we did that? Did It's like but I made it 35 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: up with Red Hokeeper of the amex is Is. Well, 36 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 1: but I think what's the mixed change here? Speaks so much, 37 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 1: Mike to what we hear from our guests, the back 38 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: and forth on this American debate, Well, everything just uh, 39 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 1: everything in the consumption side, the personal consumption side a 40 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:37,639 Speaker 1: tad weaker good spending down. UH. Was it a tenth 41 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 1: of a percent instead of four tenths UH? Services two 42 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 1: point one instead of two point six. Not huge drops, 43 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 1: but enough to push it lower. Let's get a sort 44 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 1: of expert look at what this may mean for the 45 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 1: economy going forward. Billy is a head of economics for 46 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 1: North America for City Group and UH. Bill, this is 47 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: good news in the sense that the number is higher 48 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 1: than initially reported profits better than forecast. But we do 49 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 1: have a question about consumption. Although it's an old number 50 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 1: now you're absolutely like Mike uh and the question we 51 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 1: have is will consumers still be the main engine of 52 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 1: growth that keeps the economy going. And I think the 53 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 1: to the fact that we have an upward revision GDP 54 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 1: kind of confirms the view that in the first quarter 55 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 1: of the land market was doing quite well. Income was 56 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 1: being produced, and so I think the the the GDP 57 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: numbers who were getting we're underestimates as as they often are. UH. 58 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: And I think going forward, the big question is going 59 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 1: to be the decline and investment that we've seen in 60 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: the last two quarters that's become serious and it's something 61 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: generally want is highlighted as one of the sources of 62 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 1: productivities slow down, right, because you know, in the last 63 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: of five years we have barely half plamp productivit growth 64 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:50,680 Speaker 1: and and they're hoping that the investment would check in 65 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: enough and broaden the base of the expansion so that 66 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,520 Speaker 1: we can have better product hopes that person to be 67 00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 1: going forward doesn't look that way. Um. So, so the 68 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 1: the main concerns about the imbalances going forward, I think 69 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: is also one of the questions is holding back the fed. Um, 70 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: you know, how how much can we trust to consumer 71 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: to carry the load. And with all this uncertainty that's 72 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 1: flowing around with all the global events and and and 73 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: also uncertainties here will the consumers start to haul back 74 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: and say, les, I need some more savings, so I 75 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 1: need to ulster my balance sheet, I need to pay 76 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 1: down debt. So so these are big questions that that 77 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: are being asked. And I think we're gonna have to 78 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 1: see how the employment ever comes out the next uh 79 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:31,799 Speaker 1: in the next couple of weeks, what do you think, uh, 80 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: will is happening with the employment because well it's a 81 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 1: week and a few days away. Um, are we going 82 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 1: to dismiss what happened in the May pay rolls support. 83 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 1: I so hope, so you probably out alone in that exactly. 84 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:48,920 Speaker 1: I mean, if if there if we get another hit 85 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 1: of the story we had like a fifty or thirty 86 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: um um, I think there's gonna be some serious headscraction 87 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 1: about what's going on. Um. The the the we're we're 88 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 1: counting on a slightly our number. In fact, we think 89 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,479 Speaker 1: it will be about a hundred uh not really robust 90 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 1: um And based on on the little you know, short 91 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: term podcast model that we have, we think kind of 92 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: the hundred numbers below consensus descent and and we're sort 93 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 1: of circling around that number right now. Uh and and 94 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: that bases the question in my mind, has has the 95 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 1: legal markets somehow started to fail us? Um, we're reaching 96 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 1: full employment, we should not be seeing two hundred numbers, 97 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 1: so everyone acknowledges that, but we should be somewhere in 98 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,279 Speaker 1: the one hundred one fifty range. Um. And if we 99 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: don't fall in that range, I think the question is 100 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: going to be have firms truly stopped hiring because they 101 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: can't find the qualified work of the job? Mismatch issue 102 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 1: is really severe. Everyone points to job openings and say, 103 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 1: oh my god, so many job openings his stories high, 104 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 1: but when you look at the ratio and hiring, the 105 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,479 Speaker 1: job openings is the lowest ever ever and and and 106 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: the history of the two Times is going opening about 107 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 1: the two thousands. And that means that firms are not 108 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: willing to pull the triggers because they can't find it 109 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 1: by qualified person. Very quickly here, Billy, I'm looking at 110 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 1: first order nominal GDP annualized is one point four percent. 111 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:07,919 Speaker 1: That's the same as the gloomy first quarter of a 112 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 1: year ago, which was just under one percent, and then 113 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 1: we had a boom second quarter rebound. Is this just 114 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 1: the new new for your statistical racket? Did you have 115 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 1: a lousy first quarter and you make it all back 116 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 1: and the next number of weeks Our forecast is definitely 117 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: chointing on that. So were we be tenciled in above 118 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 1: two and two to a quarter for quite a while now? 119 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 1: And and the gnomes of the GDP now world of 120 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: saying two and a half three percent, right, So the 121 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,359 Speaker 1: rebound is there, But I think that's a false false 122 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,239 Speaker 1: positive in sense that going forward we think it'll bounce 123 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 1: right back to kind of Can I just say, Michael 124 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 1: McKee and thank you, Billy for coming on and please 125 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: stay with us. Mike, is it a joy not to 126 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 1: talk about Brexit for four minutes? What what canna say this? 127 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 1: We say this with great respect for Anna Edwards, Francy 128 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: Laquaw and John Farrell and the rest of our team 129 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 1: in London. Of course, we're continuing to follow the political 130 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:08,040 Speaker 1: and economic history of the United Kingdom and we'll do 131 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: that through the day. But it's great to talk to 132 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 1: Billy about the American economy futures up twenty three. Now 133 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: it's time to check in with Michael Barr and get 134 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 1: the latest world in national headlines. Mike time, Thank you 135 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 1: very much. Technology and entrepreneurship are on Hillary Clinton's agenda. Today, 136 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee will speak at a small 137 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: business incubator in Denver in hopes of wooing young voters. 138 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 1: She'll propose allowing entrepreneurs to defer student loan payments and 139 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 1: connecting every household in America to high speed internet by Meanwhile, 140 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 1: the final Benghazi report from the Republican led panel says 141 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 1: the former Secretary of State should have realized the dangerous 142 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: to the diplomatic compound in Libya before the twelve attack. 143 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 1: Republican Donald Trump will outline is trade policies today, underscoring 144 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: the stark differences with Olli Bree Clinton. He sees the 145 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: middle class crushed by trade deals, global realization and jobs 146 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 1: going overseas. British from Minister David Cameron has arrived in Brussels, 147 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 1: who formally announced to the European Union the UK is 148 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 1: leaving the Nation Block. I'll be explaining that Britain will 149 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: be leaving the European Union. But I want that process 150 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: to be as constructive as possible, and I hope the 151 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 1: outcome can be as constructive as possible. Other EU lawmakers 152 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 1: at the process to leave the EU should take place 153 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,680 Speaker 1: quickly to call markets and reassure the rest of Europe. 154 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 1: Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by more 155 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: than journalists and analysts and more than a hundred twenty countries. 156 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 1: Michael Barr, This is Bloomberg. My time time now for 157 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update with from Bushka Row, Good Morning, Mike, 158 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: and College Basketball News Tennessearies. Tennessee's legendary women's coach Pat 159 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: Summit has lost her long term battle with dementia and Alzheimer's. 160 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 1: She has passed away at the age of sixty four. 161 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 1: Even mother Nature couldn't help the Yankee to blew a 162 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 1: ninth inning lead to the Rangers at the Stadium in 163 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 1: a nine six loss in the opening game of the series. 164 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 1: Kirby Yates suffered the loss. Market Shara went three for five. Yankees, 165 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 1: now below five hundred, eight games back of the Orioles, 166 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: left e C. C. Sabathia and Cole Hamil's meet tonight 167 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: at seven oh five, Matt's got an unlikely outing from 168 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:19,960 Speaker 1: Noah's sinder guard. He was hammered for five runs just 169 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 1: three innings of working in eleven to four loss at Washington. 170 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: Lucas ge Little to make his big league debut for 171 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 1: the Nats tonight against Matt Harvey. As the dream team 172 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: hones in Ontario, Knicks fans hope they could land Kevin 173 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 1: Durant in the free agent market, the top name on 174 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 1: both the roster and the open market. On his decision 175 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 1: to play, simply, I just wanted to. You know, it's 176 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: no bigger answer than that, I just wanted to play ball. 177 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 1: It's looking for to this opportunity to kind of get 178 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: in the game over a little earlier. You know, we'd 179 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 1: normally do it throughout the summer, and uh, you know, 180 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 1: so playing against the best players in the world and 181 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 1: with my peers, and I'm looking forward to learning a lot. 182 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: Durant is scheduled to meet with six teams who want 183 00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: his services. And news just in out of the nfls 184 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 1: more sad news. Former NFL defensive guru and head coach 185 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 1: of the Philadelphia Eagles and Cardinals, Buddy Ryan has just 186 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 1: passed away at the age of eighty two. Of course, 187 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: he's a father of former Jets coach and now Buffalo 188 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:14,320 Speaker 1: Bill's coach Rex Ryan. Across upon at Wimbledon, Americans Madison 189 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: Keys and Venus Williams are straight set winners, and the 190 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,840 Speaker 1: world's number one Novak Djokovic was as well. Serena Williams 191 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: just underway there at center court. That's your NBC Bloomberg 192 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:25,599 Speaker 1: Sports update, Mike and Tom, thanks so much greatly, a 193 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:28,079 Speaker 1: producted Mike, you are the football guru. I don't believe 194 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: Mr Ryan worked with the Denver Broncos, but he is 195 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 1: the four six four down linemen and six people behind 196 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: the lineman at the line of scrimmage. Six linebackers. How 197 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,320 Speaker 1: did he change football? That was one of the main 198 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: ways to do it. And you had a lot of 199 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 1: speed in the backfield and you're overwhelmed the team. And 200 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: he led the eighty four Bears defense to the Super Bowl. 201 00:10:51,280 --> 00:11:01,840 Speaker 1: Mr Ryan Changing Football from New York, Bloomberg Surveillance Coming up. 202 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:05,559 Speaker 1: JP Morgan reassesses the state of the US economy and 203 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 1: it's fed outlook in the wake of Brexit. We'll talk 204 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 1: with chief economist Michael Farli here on Surveyance. It's continuous 205 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,480 Speaker 1: global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 206 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 1: dot com, the radio plus mobile app, and on your radio. 207 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm covering Moscow. 208 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by Stage Summit, the world's 209 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 1: largest gathering of small and medium businesses, featuring Sir Richard 210 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 1: Branson July in Chicago, registered with Promo Code Business at 211 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 1: stage summit dot Com for just ninety nine dollars. The 212 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 1: world's largest economy expanding more than previously projected in the 213 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 1: first quarter, as improved performance in trade and business investment 214 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 1: more than made up for weaker consumers spending. Gross domestic product, 215 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 1: the value of all goods and services produced rose that 216 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 1: at one point one percent annualized rate, compared with the 217 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: previously estimated gain of eight tenths percent. Corporate profits at 218 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 1: the start of the year were also revised up, giving 219 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: a brighter picture to gross domestic income. Stocks, the pound, 220 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 1: commodities all gaining for the first time since Britain's vote 221 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 1: to leave the EU amid speculation policymakers will take steps 222 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 1: to limit any economic fallout. We checked the markets every 223 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 1: fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg SNP, EMNY 224 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:26,439 Speaker 1: futures up twenty seven points down, EMNI futures up two 225 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: hundred thirty one, NASA documedy futures of fifty six. The 226 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: tax in Germany's up three percent now foot see one 227 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:35,320 Speaker 1: hundred also up three percent, and the CAC in Paris 228 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: of three point three percent ten Your treasury down eight 229 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 1: thirty seconds, the yield one point four six percent yield 230 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:43,839 Speaker 1: on the two year point six one percent. Nimex screwed 231 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: oil of three point one percent of a dollar forty 232 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:49,320 Speaker 1: three at forty seven seventy six of barrol comes gold 233 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:51,719 Speaker 1: down six tenths percent or eight dollars fifty cents to 234 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:54,959 Speaker 1: thirteen sixteen twenty an ounce, the Euro at dollar ten 235 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:57,560 Speaker 1: eighty two, the British pound a dollar thirty four sixteen, 236 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,319 Speaker 1: the en one oh two point four three. It's a 237 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Flash, Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much. 238 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:08,680 Speaker 1: It is on Wall Street. The following is from Bloomberg View. 239 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 1: Opinions and commentary from Bloomberg columnists. I'm Claive Crook, a 240 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:16,079 Speaker 1: columnist for Bloomberg View. Europe's leaders are working out their 241 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:18,959 Speaker 1: response to Britain's vote to leave the Union. What should 242 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 1: they do? They should look again at freedom of movement 243 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 1: for workers within the EU's borders, Seen as a core 244 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 1: principle of European integration, This idea has inflamed anti immigrant 245 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: sentiment and hostility to the EU in many countries, not 246 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 1: just Britain. If this commitment was softened, liberal rules for 247 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:40,319 Speaker 1: internal migration would still be possible. The idea that upsets 248 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 1: many moderate voters, pushing them into alliance with hardline anti immigrants, 249 00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 1: is that they no longer have any say in the matter. 250 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 1: Policy on migration can and should be liberal, but it 251 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: needs to be brought back into democratic politics. If doesn't 252 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 1: been done before, Brexit might never have happened. It's probably 253 00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:00,199 Speaker 1: too late to change that, but it isn't too eight 254 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 1: to weaken the far right populism that's getting a grip 255 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 1: in other countries. Sometimes if you don't bend, you break. 256 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 1: Brexit is the proof Europe's leaders need to wake up 257 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,440 Speaker 1: to this before the damage. Guest was I'm Client Kroeger, 258 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:17,679 Speaker 1: columnist for Bloomberg View. For more commenting analysis, please go 259 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg dot com slash View. This has been Bloomberg 260 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 1: View and Bloomberview. Commentaries can be heard hourly weekdays. I'm 261 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. A spirited conversation with William Leeve's City Group 262 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: looking at the American economy more. We're trying to get 263 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: a bit away from Brexit here. We'll get back to 264 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: it through the hours. Billy, can public policy jump start investment? 265 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 1: Low productivity, low confidence? Maybe there's a challenge to invest 266 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 1: You've been very articulated on this. Do we need a 267 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: public policy to invest or? Is it earty there? Well, Tom, 268 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 1: you've been feel a question of all your guests and 269 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 1: let the answer. I think that's still the whole of 270 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 1: the prayer, and I think the public policy hopes are 271 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: there that we want to do something, but God help us, 272 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: we get more CAF clunker and and and shovel ready 273 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: projects that that don't go anywhere. Uh So, I don't 274 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 1: have a lot of optimism that the public policy is 275 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 1: in gear right now or to get in gear in 276 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: the near future. To be able to get us to 277 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 1: trying to policies, we need to really get us real 278 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 1: punctivity growth and real investment growth. I think this the 279 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 1: fits and starts are even more harmful than that they 280 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 1: would be otherwise. So so I'm already had such as 281 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: depressing tones to this u to question. But but looking forward, 282 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: I think the real restructuring that we need most here 283 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 1: and around the world, in terms of making labor market's 284 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 1: more efficient, making infrastructure projects more viable um is something 285 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 1: that that we have yet to see. Well, is there 286 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:49,359 Speaker 1: any hope for lifting growth without some sort of Kinesian 287 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 1: aspect to it? Yeah? In fact, I think that's critical 288 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 1: that we stay away from Kanesi and short term solutions. 289 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 1: I think the key is to get the corporate sector 290 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 1: to start asking themselves where are the good investment opportunities, 291 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 1: where's my compared advantage, and what can I make the 292 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: use of right now that that that I haven't made 293 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 1: use of yet, and and that means innovation, and that 294 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:11,880 Speaker 1: means the kind of startups that we we're seeing, and 295 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 1: that means domestically oriented industries um because I think with 296 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: all the pressure from the exchange rights so far that 297 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 1: we've seen going and the gold gloomy prospects in the 298 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 1: rest of the world, as far as growth opportunity concern us, 299 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 1: domestic non treaty good sector goods and services sectors are 300 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 1: probably the best place to start looking. I've been asking 301 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: different people. You're in good company, William Lee. I asked 302 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 1: this some Irvin King today. Let's see if you can 303 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 1: do better than Governor King. Governor Lee. The current account deficit. 304 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:43,200 Speaker 1: Now this is a United Kingdom exercise. What you need 305 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 1: to know, folks, is three parts goods, services and investment flows. 306 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 1: William Lee owns a huge condo in Kensington. He gets 307 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 1: an income from that. Bill Lee, help us here with 308 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: a bad current account deficit that everyone suggests will get 309 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: dramatic worse and then the currency adjustment that goes with this. 310 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 1: Does the next chancel of the checker need to be 311 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: worried about this? He certainly does. I think the thing 312 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: in the UK that speak as an an expert, but 313 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: from my colleagues, the one thing that I learned was 314 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:19,239 Speaker 1: that the comparative advantage of the UK has been an 315 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,400 Speaker 1: export of services. Uh. They are losing their compared advantage 316 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 1: in the high tech kind of engineering type industries. Uh. 317 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 1: And and so what they're hoping for is massive capel 318 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: inflows now to be able to revive again for them 319 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 1: to the non traded and services sector. And and and 320 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 1: I think the best thing they can hope for that 321 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 1: is to find some way of promoting that, incentivizing that, 322 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:44,360 Speaker 1: which means restructuring their regulations and restructuring the legal researches 323 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:49,919 Speaker 1: that have prevented it so far. What's the likelihood? Um, 324 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 1: I think that's your answer. I think you know, as 325 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:57,720 Speaker 1: I said, a lot of these things are hoping to 326 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:00,199 Speaker 1: prayer and and right now I'm praying hard that than 327 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,600 Speaker 1: I'm hoping. Yeah, But the dynamic here of the folks 328 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:07,440 Speaker 1: to be serious here, there's some serious Newtonian mechanics going 329 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 1: down here in the waiting of the reaction function. Billy, 330 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,960 Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Currency is front and center, isn't it. I mean, 331 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 1: that's the solution you and I read the history books, right, 332 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 1: But you know you can't appreciate yourself to wealth. Right, 333 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: That's the one lesson we learned from Adam Smith. Right. 334 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,439 Speaker 1: The wealth of nations depends upon making use of the 335 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:30,880 Speaker 1: compared advantage that you have. And there is something called 336 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,439 Speaker 1: dynamic compared advantage, as you know, Tom, which means that 337 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:37,960 Speaker 1: if you if you save and realogy resources to different sectors, 338 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:40,440 Speaker 1: you can change your compared vantage. But that takes time, 339 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:43,159 Speaker 1: and you cannot have a quick fix that depreciating your 340 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 1: currency and hoping that you're gonna get some wealth out 341 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: of it. And I think that's been the failure, certainly 342 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,200 Speaker 1: of of global monstre policy in the last couple of years. 343 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,919 Speaker 1: You can only move around growth. When you depreciate it 344 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:55,399 Speaker 1: means you're stealing it from somebody who's appreciated against you, 345 00:18:55,640 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 1: and that that doesn't work. Well. Then the question is 346 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 1: the question that comes to my mind is somebody wrote 347 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 1: a book a few years ago called Flying on One Engine? 348 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,119 Speaker 1: Can the Global Emmy? Do you know that? Alec Tansy, 349 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 1: I think he has the only remaining copy that actually 350 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 1: holds a publisher record for the speed with which it 351 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 1: went into the bargain you found, you found the remainder been. 352 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 1: I'll just past the helix, right, John Tucker, Oh, well, 353 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:32,120 Speaker 1: let's get back Billy, whether you're not you read Tom's book. 354 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 1: Can the US economy expanded enough to carry the rest 355 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,400 Speaker 1: of the world, Well, everybody figures all this out. Well, 356 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 1: I think the policy is certainly for the rest of 357 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,359 Speaker 1: the world are depredicated on that because they're trying to 358 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 1: appreciate the currency and where they're going to take it 359 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: from the U S. All of that's appreciating. But but 360 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 1: I think as we're going back to to the GDP 361 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 1: numbers that we just saw, right, we saw the consumer 362 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 1: savings rates have popped up, and that means that consumers 363 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,919 Speaker 1: getting more cautious. The slight uppert revision the exports, that's 364 00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 1: nonsense because we've got a huge drive from net exports 365 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 1: because of these change right, So I'm anticipating that drugs 366 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 1: going to go back to about a half percentage point 367 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 1: going forward. So so I really do have my doubts 368 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 1: that the US will be the cobal engine of growth. 369 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,160 Speaker 1: That means that every country has got to turn towards 370 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 1: increasing domestic demand, and that's where the policy focus has 371 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:19,879 Speaker 1: got to be that again gets back to that laughing question, 372 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 1: and I asked you, what's it going to the question 373 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 1: I put to Alan Greenspan. Everybody knows what you're saying 374 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 1: is correct, but nobody does anything about it. So what happens. Well, 375 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 1: I think we're starting to see some of the reaction, 376 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:35,439 Speaker 1: which is that the people are getting so fed up 377 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 1: there saying, Okay, you at the political class that's in 378 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 1: there now, you can't do it. Let's change it and 379 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: get somebody who can. And that's where the danger is, 380 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 1: because that's when you start making political and social and 381 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,680 Speaker 1: legal institutions unstable and and and God help us if 382 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 1: that starts happening in the advanced economies, because then all 383 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 1: of the incentives for investment at all, the incentives that 384 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: we have for the long term structural kind of reforms 385 00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 1: that we need, that starts to diticipate. And I think 386 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,679 Speaker 1: that's where my focus of worry is admitted. Almost the 387 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: last last couple of weeks, Billy, thank you so much. 388 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 1: William Lee with City Group, as we uh do what 389 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 1: we do will just give you a terrific set of 390 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 1: conversations at today. William Lee working with Mr Bowder over 391 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 1: at City Group coming up another set of where these 392 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 1: well Justin Wolfers will be with us at the University 393 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 1: of Michigan. He is truly one of the bright young 394 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 1: lights of academic economics. We're thrilled to have him on today. 395 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 1: A Mervin King joining us earlier as Alan Greens and 396 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 1: yesterday and it was great to talk to Marvin. Goodfriend 397 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 1: Michael McKee with his strong statement on regulation and a 398 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:51,639 Speaker 1: more not overregulated, but a relatively overregulated. Your at MONDI 399 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 1: viewpoint that you need more capital in the banks. How 400 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 1: could you do a cash call here? Help me? I 401 00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 1: mean that Deutsche Bank has a been today, UNI Credited 402 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 1: is a bid today. All on our Bloomberg data screen 403 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 1: has a bid today. But I don't know. I don't 404 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:06,199 Speaker 1: know how you line up a cash you call? How 405 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 1: The question is what what kind of how long will 406 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:11,159 Speaker 1: the bids last? I advise everyone to go look at 407 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 1: the stuck trading chart. After Lehman's bankruptcy two days later, 408 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,840 Speaker 1: we were higher and then and then maybe they need 409 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:21,680 Speaker 1: to call Warren Buffett. He can solve a get a 410 00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 1: preferred coupon off of a European bank. We have another 411 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 1: hour from New York of Bloomberg surveillance