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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, back

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Speaker 1: at it with my peoples. The first Lady of the pod,

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Speaker 1: Kendra Middleton, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation Stuckey, whose

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Speaker 1: college football season just ended. On today's episode, We've got

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Speaker 1: our plant the Flag game for the conference championship games,

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Speaker 1: Kendra's Deepest Darkest thoughts, and Evans Tuesday primer. You can't

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Speaker 1: start a betting week without it. Only three games left, Kendra?

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Speaker 1: Is it time to rejoice or is it time to cry?

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Speaker 2: I thought that I was going to be excited to

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Speaker 2: get a break and for the weather to get warmer

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Speaker 2: and everything. But last week, when there was no football

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Speaker 2: on like the normal prime time slots, I got really sad.

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Speaker 2: So I'm going to go with sad just because I

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Speaker 2: do miss football when it's not on, But I also

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Speaker 2: miss the routine of football when it's not on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, then to agree with that, I miss the full slates.

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Speaker 1: We've got two great games left and then a two

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Speaker 1: week build up for what will hopefully be a game

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Speaker 1: that doesn't involve Jared Steadham or any backup quarterback action stucky?

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Speaker 1: What about you? How do you reconcile with this time

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Speaker 1: of year? Any emotions flowing through that noggin?

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Speaker 3: I mean it isn't it's stunning to watch like a

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Speaker 3: national title just one football game. The commercials are just incessant. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: especially because you used to watching like a million games once.

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Speaker 3: But it's it's college basketball season for me, so it's

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Speaker 3: I'll have that feeling in April. So I just kind

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Speaker 3: of shift my Like the preparation now for football games

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Speaker 3: is so much easier, so I just take all that

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Speaker 3: time dedicated to college basketball. But really we're looking into

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Speaker 3: just four teams now there's no college football, so that's in.

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Speaker 4: The rear view mirror.

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Speaker 3: And I in one of the games this weekend is

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Speaker 3: just like there's not much. There's not a ton to

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Speaker 3: break down, Like you just have to make a decision

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Speaker 3: on if you want to bet the Patriots Broncos game, Like,

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Speaker 3: what do you think the drop off is from Nicks

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Speaker 3: to Stidham, who hasn't played in a game in seven

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifty days. If you think it's too much,

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Speaker 3: you bet in the Broncos. If you don't think it's

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Speaker 3: enough you'll probably bet the Patriots, and that's kind of

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Speaker 3: the decision point. It's not like you're going and breaking

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Speaker 3: down what the Broncos offense look like with Stidham this year.

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Speaker 3: There's just nothing, So that one isn't like there's not

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Speaker 3: a lot of time to be spent on that game.

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Speaker 3: Seahawks rams pretty interesting being that it is the third meeting.

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Speaker 3: We'll be talking about both those games a lot. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: I just I now allocate most of my time out

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Speaker 3: of college basketball, so I will plug big Bets on

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Speaker 3: Campus Podcast. I will be making my return this week

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Speaker 3: later this week breaking down the weekend card. We have

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Speaker 3: live shows coming up either starting this week or next.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I won't have that like that void feeling

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Speaker 3: until after the college basketball National Championship.

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Speaker 1: For people that are wanting to add college basketball to

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Speaker 1: their repertoire this time of year, since we are a

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Speaker 1: couple of months away from March, is now the time

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Speaker 1: to hop in. If you have not bet any college

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Speaker 1: basketball yet or are you too are you already too

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Speaker 1: late to the party to really have any idea of

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Speaker 1: what's going on.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I always tell people that if you wanted to, like,

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Speaker 3: if you if you're just like starting from scratch, and

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Speaker 3: the college basketball market is much tougher to beat. I

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Speaker 3: mean every year it gets tougher to be, like like

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Speaker 3: all markets, but especially in college basketball. I think it

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Speaker 3: was like exponentially easier to beat five years ago. The

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Speaker 3: tax on certain spots and just the market is just

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Speaker 3: smarter overall. But I always tell people, just like, look,

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Speaker 3: there's you think there's a lot of teams in college football,

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Speaker 3: there are triple that in college basketball. So I always

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Speaker 3: tell people if you're like just diving in, you know,

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Speaker 3: and if you're just doing it recreationally for fun, who

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Speaker 3: cares just at the TV games, But if you want

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Speaker 3: to like just try and get an edge or try

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Speaker 3: and handicap these games, like just focus on one conference.

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Speaker 3: Much easier to do than trying to like stare at

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Speaker 3: a board and follow every single team like I try

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Speaker 3: to do most people.

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Speaker 4: You know, you have a job, you don't have time

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Speaker 4: to do that.

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Speaker 3: But just take one conference, follow it very closely, the

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Speaker 3: ebbs and flows of teams, who's been who's been getting

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Speaker 3: lucky injuries, and you kind of just get a feel

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Speaker 3: for teams. And if you just focus on one conference

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Speaker 3: and you know there might be even more opportunities for

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Speaker 3: some of the lower level conferences, although those might not

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Speaker 3: be the most appetizing for people.

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Speaker 4: To choose, But that's what that's That would be my suggestion.

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Speaker 3: Or you know, follow someone that you find is that

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Speaker 3: you know gets free picks, that has a good track record,

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Speaker 3: and follow along, but you want to be in it

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Speaker 3: for a long haul. There's good it's a grind and

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Speaker 3: there's going to be horrible beats, like college basketball is

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Speaker 3: the the beats are just incredible, so you have to

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Speaker 3: be able to stomach them move on quickly. But that

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Speaker 3: would be my my advice for everyone, and into big

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Speaker 3: bets on campus week our weekend previews.

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Speaker 4: We'll talk futures every week.

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Speaker 3: Myself, I think my guy Route is going to be

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Speaker 3: doing them with me as well, who's super sharp. But

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of resources out there too, so yeah,

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Speaker 3: just tune into the podcast.

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Speaker 4: More to come there.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited to get raked over the Coles during March Madness,

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Speaker 1: but definitely pay attention to everything Stuck He's got going

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Speaker 1: on there. One more thought on the amateur level, Kendra,

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Speaker 1: did you ever think we'd see a day where Indiana

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Speaker 1: would be hoisting a national championship before. I mean fit

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Speaker 1: in your favorite NFL team here, the Cleveland Browns. I

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Speaker 1: never thought i'd see this in my life. Here we

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Speaker 1: are deserving champion before several of the only thirty two

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Speaker 1: NFL teams have ever hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.

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Speaker 2: I can't say that I'm surprised, because I feel like

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Speaker 2: in college, if you're really dedicated to spending the money now,

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Speaker 2: you can kind of put together any kind of team

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Speaker 2: that you want. Yes, they got lucky not having I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't say lucky. They worked very hard and had very

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Speaker 2: good game plans, but lucky in the sense that not

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Speaker 2: having a single five star recruit paid off for them

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Speaker 2: with that ability to have the underdog mentality. But I

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Speaker 2: have to say it was a way better game than

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Speaker 2: I thought it would be. I'll give Miami their flowers. However,

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Speaker 2: I have seen some tweets flying today and I'm not

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Speaker 2: sure if they're real or not, And if they are,

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Speaker 2: I'm very disappointed. Apparently Carson Beck did not shake Mendoza's

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Speaker 2: hand after the game. Is this true, Stucky?

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Speaker 3: I don't know to tell you the truth. I know

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Speaker 3: that Fletcher got a lot of shit for the I

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Speaker 3: think he threw like a punch, but he saw that

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Speaker 3: embraced him, which is good to say. But I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I didn't see. I didn't see any of the handshakes.

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Speaker 3: After I got I officially became a parent. After the game,

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Speaker 3: I got pooped on for the first time changing a

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Speaker 3: diaper like a whoa. My wife's usually the diaper changer.

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Speaker 3: I wasn't ready for that.

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Speaker 1: It's one of the things people don't tell you when

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Speaker 1: you have a kid, is the sludge that comes out

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Speaker 1: of these kids. It's the weirdest thing.

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Speaker 2: It's thank you for my free birth control today boys now,

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Speaker 2: INDI I think that what Indiana obviously kind of.

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Speaker 3: It's a symbol of the changing landscape in college football.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: This is a sport that's.

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Speaker 3: Been dominated by a handful of teams every year for

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Speaker 3: a decade since the college football playoff started. And now

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Speaker 3: you know, with everyone being able to pay, and you

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Speaker 3: don't just have these teams that are your perennial powers,

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Speaker 3: there's going to be opportunities for other teams to rise up.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look at a team like vander Built. You

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Speaker 3: know they were a perennial basement bottom feeder and now

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Speaker 3: you know, they were right on the doorstep of making

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Speaker 3: the college fotball playoff. You have Indiana, I mean, one

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Speaker 3: of the most losingest programs in collegeable history now winning

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Speaker 3: a national title. I mean, unfathomable if you would have

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Speaker 3: said that five years ago. So I think it's good

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Speaker 3: for the sport. The sport still has some things to

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Speaker 3: figure out as far as regulating all of this and

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Speaker 3: maybe fixing the calendar a bit, but I think that

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Speaker 3: it's it's kind of fitting that it was a you know,

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Speaker 3: a team like Indiana in this new college football world

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Speaker 3: and then applying it to the NFL. It's you know,

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Speaker 3: we saw this year the impact of new coaches and

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Speaker 3: how much of an impact they can have on a team,

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Speaker 3: and just one season and we're gonna, you know, we're

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Speaker 3: going into a crazy coaching cycle. I think the NFC

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Speaker 3: North is the only division without a coaching change. Don't

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Speaker 3: quote me on that, Hevan, can you check that real quick.

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Speaker 3: But so there's a ton of coaching changes, but we

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Speaker 3: saw this past year. So we'll see which teams are gonna,

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Speaker 3: you know, really benefit from those coaching changes. But we

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Speaker 3: just saw this past year. Ben Johnson had the Bears on,

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Speaker 3: you know, the doorstep of an NFC championship game. Look

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Speaker 3: at the Seahawks the one seed and what McDonald has

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Speaker 3: done there with that defense. We saw the Jags with

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Speaker 3: Liam Cohen, the impact of him leaving Tampa go into Jacksonville.

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Speaker 3: So there's countless examples of the impact that coaching and

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Speaker 3: you know, you can go down to coordinators as well,

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Speaker 3: can have on a football team. And Signetti is, you know,

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Speaker 3: the the poster child for that. There's Signetty. Sure what

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Speaker 3: a job he's done. But yeah, I think that it's

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Speaker 3: kind of the year of coaching and we have some

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Speaker 3: really good coaches left in the NFL plaufs. I mean

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Speaker 3: McVeigh McDonald is you know, that's that's football porn. And

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Speaker 3: you can go back the first meeting, McDonald dominated and

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Speaker 3: which is funny because McDonald dominated McVeigh in the first meeting,

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Speaker 3: but the Rams won, and then McVeigh dominated McDonald in

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Speaker 3: the second meeting.

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Speaker 4: And the Seahawks won. You can even go back to Baltimore.

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Speaker 3: M McVeigh dominated McDonald in when the Rams went to

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Speaker 3: Baltimore and Baltimore at the number one defense, but the

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Speaker 3: Baltimore won in overtime. So interesting to note, but that

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Speaker 3: is like football porn. McDonald verus mcvayh. And what makes

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Speaker 3: that tough to break down is you know that they're

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Speaker 3: like McVeigh is a tendency breaker right in high leverage games,

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Speaker 3: so he'll come up with something that you know that

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Speaker 3: McDonald's not going to be expecting. And I mean, you

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Speaker 3: look at the two meetings this year. They had their

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Speaker 3: first meeting where they didn't have much success, to the

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Speaker 3: second meeting they completely flipped their use of thirteen personnel.

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Speaker 3: And that was one of the things late in the

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Speaker 3: season that was just something that no teams could match

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Speaker 3: up with the three tight ends on the field. They

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Speaker 3: didn't have a ton of success against Seattle as much

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Speaker 3: as relative to other teams, but they had success in

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Speaker 3: that second meeting even though Seattle is built to stop

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Speaker 3: thirteen personnel because of Nick and Emon Moorey, and they

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Speaker 3: ran at Emon Worrey. One of the things they really

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Speaker 3: did well in that second meeting, they just ran right

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Speaker 3: at them. But then last week McVeigh abandoned thirteen personnel

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Speaker 3: went back to his roots of eleven personnel. I don't

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Speaker 3: know why, I mean, the Bears are one of the

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Speaker 3: worst defenses in the league.

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Speaker 1: I would think it was rather related, but.

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Speaker 3: Like you would want to go heavier personnel, more tight

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Speaker 3: ends and run at the Bears. I mean, the Bears

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Speaker 3: are the worst bid that the highest exposive play rate

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Speaker 3: allowed of any defense against thirteen personnel. So I don't

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Speaker 3: know if that was to throw off the Seahawks a bit.

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Speaker 3: I don't know, But I just don't know what I'm

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Speaker 3: what to expect from McVeigh. But I do know that

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Speaker 3: you can probably expect a curveball formationwise, so.

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Speaker 4: I'm looking forward to that.

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Speaker 3: And McDonald came out and said, because they gave up

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Speaker 3: five hundred and eighty one yards, I'm rambling, by the way,

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Speaker 3: but they gave up five hundred and eighty one yards

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Speaker 3: in Week sixteen to the Rams who didn't have Donson,

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Speaker 3: didn't have Adams, and that was on a short week,

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Speaker 3: and the Seahawks were completely healthy outside of their left

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Speaker 3: tackle who might miss this game too. But McDonald came

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Speaker 3: out and said, we tried too many new things on

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Speaker 3: a short week, so what are his adjustments because they

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Speaker 3: were kind of lost in that game. So super interesting game.

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Speaker 3: I'm really looking forward to the coaching matchup in that game.

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Speaker 3: That's a long wind answer and saying long winded way

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Speaker 3: of saying, Sig did a great job.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, go Hoosiers. I don't know if you guys can

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Speaker 1: tell which game Stucky is more excited about ram Seahawks

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Speaker 1: or Patriots Broncos. The coaching clinic between those two on

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Speaker 1: the NFC side is going to be great. That was

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Speaker 1: one of the things I'm glad you brought up coaching.

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Speaker 1: I do want to get to a couple of the

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Speaker 1: new hires, but I was looking at the commonalities between

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Speaker 1: the four teams that are still in the race, and

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Speaker 1: solid quarterback play is of course always going to be

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Speaker 1: part of it, and that kind of gets thrown out

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Speaker 1: the window because we have a stidham game defense. All

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Speaker 1: these teams ranked top eleven and EPA pri play and coaching,

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Speaker 1: those are the two most common factors that I could find.

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Speaker 1: These teams are kind of all over the place when

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Speaker 1: you look at things like third down conversion percentage, how

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Speaker 1: good are they in the red zone, how good are

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Speaker 1: they defending the red zone all the how good are

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Speaker 1: they in terms of running the ball. These teams are

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Speaker 1: kind of all over the board, But in terms of

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Speaker 1: what do they have in common defense and coaching? Is

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Speaker 1: there anything else, Kendra, off the top of your head

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Speaker 1: that you think I'm missing as far as key traits

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Speaker 1: that all four teams have that are still on the hunt.

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Speaker 2: That's a good question that I wasn't prepared for you

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Speaker 2: to ask me. I'm gonna I'm gonna say I don't

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Speaker 2: think so. The only thing that I really kind of

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Speaker 2: am looking at outside of everything that stuck you just

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Speaker 2: kind of mentioned and that you mentioned Matt Stafford and

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Speaker 2: McVeigh having the experience piece is kind of the way

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Speaker 2: that I'm approaching that game. I know that a lot

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Speaker 2: of people are gonna look at defense. I know a

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Speaker 2: lot of people are gonna look at who's injured. I

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Speaker 2: think the experience piece is the biggest part about it,

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Speaker 2: which is another reason we can talk about it later.

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Speaker 2: Like that, I'm looking at maybe the Broncos as well

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Speaker 2: because of Sean Payton.

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Speaker 3: So I would also say that Sean, I mean I

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Speaker 3: mentioned coaching. I'm excited about coaching that game, but I'm

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Speaker 3: also excited about what Peyton will.

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Speaker 4: Come up with here.

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Speaker 3: Right, he has a blank slate with no tendencies like

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Speaker 3: there's the Patriots don't aren't going to know what to expect, although,

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Speaker 3: which makes what makes that game really interesting. Peyton hand

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Speaker 3: picked Sidham I think for a reason. He obviously saw

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Speaker 3: something that he liked and he was I think it

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Speaker 3: was his first signing, his first free agent signing after

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Speaker 3: he got to Denver. But McDaniels also knows Sidham very

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Speaker 3: well right that draft, he was with them in New England,

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Speaker 3: went with him to to Vegas, so there that he

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Speaker 3: knows his strengths and weaknesses. So how does that play?

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Speaker 2: And Bo and Jarrett have known each other forever because

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Speaker 2: of Auburn.

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Speaker 3: Yep, so so that that's that's certainly interesting. And I

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Speaker 3: will say the we we still don't know exactly like

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Speaker 3: where to I still I'm not fully confident in how

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Speaker 3: good the Patriots are and we're going in the conference

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Speaker 3: championship weekend. I mean they haven't They've played backup quarterbacks,

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Speaker 3: hurt offenses or backup quarterbacks all year and that and

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Speaker 3: what happened in the playoffs. They played you know, a

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Speaker 3: team without a two Pro Bowl tackles and a hurt backfield,

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Speaker 3: and you know, then they played the Texans who didn't

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Speaker 3: have their starting right tackle, they lost their starting tight

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Speaker 3: end in the first quarter, they lost, they didn't have

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Speaker 3: their starting wide receiver, their top wide receiver, one of

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Speaker 3: the best in the NFL. But then then this week

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Speaker 3: they're gonna get stit them. And then the other thing

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Speaker 3: is they haven't played. Their schedule of opposing defenses was

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Speaker 3: also a joke. They've played like no top ten defenses

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Speaker 3: the entire year outside of the Browns, and the Browns

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Speaker 3: on the road aren't the same defense. And then they

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Speaker 3: finally faced two top five defenses, and Drake May has

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Speaker 3: six fumbles and two interceptions and has not looked great.

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Speaker 3: I mean, his EPA per play is right there with

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Speaker 3: Stroud for the playoffs. So can the Denver defense cause

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Speaker 3: the New England offense to have some of the same

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Speaker 3: issues and cause turnovers. If so, you know, then they

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Speaker 3: might not have to hit a huge number, especially if

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Speaker 3: their defense can give him a short field or even

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Speaker 3: put a score up on the board. So but I'm

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Speaker 3: excited to see what Peyton draws up and see how

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Speaker 3: he's generally a really good, really good coach against the Blitz.

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Speaker 3: And that's what the Patriots have been doing lately. I

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Speaker 3: mean they blitzed the last four weeks forty three, forty

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Speaker 3: four percent, forty five percent. That's how they're generating pressure.

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Speaker 3: Stroud's really bad against the blitz The Chargers had no

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Speaker 3: offensive line. The thing that Stidham that's going for him

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Speaker 3: this week is his offensive line. He's one of, if

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Speaker 3: not the best offensive lines in the NFL, So that

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Speaker 3: that's huge for a backup, right, like just a good,

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Speaker 3: good play caller and a really good offensive line. We'll

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Speaker 3: see the situation at center. Wattenberg might be back, forsythe

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Speaker 3: got hurt, he might be ready, we'll see. But having

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Speaker 3: a really good offensive line at home Denver's not an

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Speaker 3: easy place to play at also, But that's huge because

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Speaker 3: you go back he started two games in twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: three with the Broncos. That Broncos offensive line is horrible.

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Speaker 3: They were thirty first in pressure allowed twenty twenty two

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Speaker 3: Raiders and both those offenses were bad like twenty six

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Speaker 3: DVA twenty fifth y VA twenty twenty two Raiders. They

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Speaker 3: were twenty sixth in pressure allowed. This Broncos offensive line

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Speaker 3: is one of the best in terms of pressure allowed,

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Speaker 3: so that should be a big step and just like

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Speaker 3: an area of comfort for Stidham, and I'd expect the

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Speaker 3: pitchers aren't gonna be able to get a ton of pressure

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Speaker 3: without blitzing. So what does Peyton's answer to that blitz like?

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Speaker 3: What does his screen game look like? That's what I'm

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Speaker 3: looking forward to there.

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Speaker 1: Before we get back into the games, we were talking

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Speaker 1: about coaching and how impactful these new coaches can be.

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Speaker 1: We had some big time coaching movement across the league

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Speaker 1: since the last time we spoke. Robert to the Titans,

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Speaker 1: Kevin Stefanski to the Atlanta Falcons. Sean McDermott has been

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Speaker 1: fired in Buffalo, half Ley hired in Miami. Kendra your

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Speaker 1: favorite and least favorite move so far, So it can

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Speaker 1: be a hiring, a firing, any of the above.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna say my least favorite is Robert Sali going

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Speaker 2: to the Titans. You can't convince me that their feud

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Speaker 2: and them hating each other did not fuel the Titans

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Speaker 2: wanting to get him because it's an easy get up

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Speaker 2: spot twice a season for both teams now, and if

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Speaker 2: you think about it in the long term, who else

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Speaker 2: is there to hate in the division? Indianapolis is going

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Speaker 2: to suck. The Texans are now struggling with their CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud situation. Wanting to hate the Jags and beat the

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Speaker 2: Jags is probably the number one thing that you want

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Speaker 2: to consider when hiring someone right now. So I hate

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Speaker 2: that I have to cheer against him twice a season

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Speaker 2: now and maybe even three times a season considering how

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Speaker 2: often we are seeing these divisional matchups in the postseason.

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Speaker 2: And my favorite can I say that it has to

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Speaker 2: be McDermott, just because of the fact that his resume

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Speaker 2: and his like win percentage is really kind of laughable

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Speaker 2: and it was just an expense. How is the GM surviving?

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Speaker 2: How are they just not blowing everything up and starting over.

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Speaker 1: It is kind of funny how time is a flat circle.

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Speaker 1: Because I've and I've seen others reference this that John

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Speaker 1: Elway very similar stylistically to Josh Allen, and you know,

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Speaker 1: it's a guy that really struggled to win as good

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Speaker 1: as he was early on in his career, and Dan

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Speaker 1: Reeves was his coach. They moved off of him, hired

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Speaker 1: Mike Shanahan, and then he started winning Super Bowls And

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Speaker 1: there's this and that. By the way, that documentary is

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Speaker 1: out right now on one of the many streaming services

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Speaker 1: that's out there, and so people are reliving that and

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Speaker 1: then we're also living that in the moment when and

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Speaker 1: maybe that's what happens here is I think Sean McDermott,

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Speaker 1: like Dan Reeves, was a good coach, but they needed

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Speaker 1: a shakeup, they needed to do something different. I'm curious

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Speaker 1: to see what direction they go in here, Stucky, any

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Speaker 1: thoughts on those two?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think it was time for McDermott,

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Speaker 3: But I mean, what about being like that the roster

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Speaker 3: construction has been so poor for the Bills.

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Speaker 2: Like, and they're like promoting him allegedly as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't get that, But I do think McDermott's

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Speaker 3: a good go. I think McDermot would be a great

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Speaker 3: defensive coordinator somewhere. But my I mean, my my least

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Speaker 3: favorite is probably Halfway. Like you're bringing him in to Miami,

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Speaker 3: which needs a rebuild, and like Halfley's only head coaching

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Speaker 3: experience was at Boston College.

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Speaker 2: Like, I.

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Speaker 3: Don't know if that's necessarily the best hire, but shocker,

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Speaker 3: the Dolphins make a move that doesn't make sense.

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Speaker 1: And goo on that one. The fact that all I'm

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Speaker 1: hearing is he he's a culture guy. Like that's that's

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Speaker 1: like saying the girl that you started dating is a

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Speaker 1: good personality. That just means that she's probably she's probably ugly,

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Speaker 1: and that's how it feels here.

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Speaker 3: And then what my favorite is by far As Stefanski.

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Speaker 3: I do think he's a good coach. I think he's

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Speaker 3: a good offensive mind. I mean, look, this is the guy.

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Speaker 3: He just got a roll a deal. You're in Cleveland

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Speaker 3: with the Watson contract and it's Cleveland and he still

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Speaker 3: won what Coach of the Year twice, But just going

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Speaker 3: from Raheem Morris to Stefanski I think is a huge upgrade.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Morris and that coaching staff was just so

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Speaker 3: incompetent in so many different ways. And the Falcons have pieces.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know about their talent on offense, there's

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Speaker 3: talent for days that the skill positions. The offensive line

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Speaker 3: is solid. And then we saw the defense this year

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Speaker 3: take a major step forward because they were able to

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Speaker 3: address their lack of edge rush and pressure in the

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Speaker 3: draft and they finally had a defense that could get pressure.

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Speaker 3: And then you know, you have some exciting other pieces.

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Speaker 3: Bowman Watts looks like a you know future all Pro.

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Speaker 3: So that's an exciting team in a division that just

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Speaker 3: like can you imagine at the Falcons like they didn't.

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Speaker 3: I mean they finished tied for first and they lost

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Speaker 3: like three or four, four maybe five games. They should

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Speaker 3: have won that division is so gettable if they just

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Speaker 3: had like a competent coaching staff and special teams. And

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Speaker 3: I think that they fixed the first one. I mean

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Speaker 3: that team wins eleven games this year and they would

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Speaker 3: not have been an easy out in the playoffs. So

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Speaker 3: I think that was a really good hire by Blank.

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Speaker 1: We are about to hand out some action able advice

433
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 1: for this weekend's games in the NFL Plant the Flag

434
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 1: games coming up, But first a word from our very

435
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 1: own Kendra Middleton.

436
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 2: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sports book and

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Speaker 1: All right, Kendra? Before we plant the flag, we've got

450
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams joining us as well for his weekly primer

451
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,400
Speaker 1: What is on your mind today?

452
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 3: What Sells?

453
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 2: So we've been talking about coaching and it's obviously the

454
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 2: biggest kind of storyline this week, especially with the McDermott

455
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 2: news and all of the hirings and everything going on.

456
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 2: Which if you Dinsky winds up going to the Browns Rip,

457
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 2: if you'd rather go to Cleveland than be with Trevor,

458
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 2: Lawrence and Jacksonville see a pizza? However, would you this

459
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,640
Speaker 2: has been really bothering me because of the McDermott thing

460
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 2: and everybody else. Would you rather be fire? What would

461
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,120
Speaker 2: be worse or better on your mental health? Being fired

462
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 2: for sucking or being fired as a scapegoat? Because I

463
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 2: really don't know what I would. I've been sitting here

464
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: and I'm like it would really suck to be fired

465
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:45,199
Speaker 2: for sucking, but also like how mad I would be

466
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 2: just getting fired so somebody else can be protected for

467
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 2: like whether it's politics or whatever. The fuck. I don't

468
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 2: know what I would hate more, and it honestly kind

469
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 2: of stresses me out a lot to think about, which

470
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 2: is I.

471
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 1: Think I'd rather I would rather be fired as a scapegoat,

472
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 1: because if you suck, that's got to ding the confidence

473
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 1: more than anything else. At least you can move forward,

474
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:13,120
Speaker 1: find another job and feel like you are competent in

475
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 1: the field that you're in. If you get fired because

476
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 1: you suck, you have a lot of reevaluation that you've

477
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 1: got to take into account.

478
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 2: But sometimes I don't know if people know they suck,

479
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 2: So it's like ignorance is bliss. And that's the part

480
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 2: of it that I argue with myself about, is like

481
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 2: I feel like so many people just don't know that

482
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 2: they suck.

483
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 1: They blame for those for those people, and they would

484
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: never answer it this way because they don't know they suck.

485
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: So it's kind of like real endless loop here. Those

486
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 1: people should they should want to get fired because they suck,

487
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 1: because then they can have an awakening and that's a

488
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,199
Speaker 1: beautiful thing to have. So you know, perhaps I don't know.

489
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,479
Speaker 1: Maybe I'm even changing my answer. Maybe I'm worse at

490
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 1: certain jobs than I realize, and I should be let go.

491
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,920
Speaker 1: Don't talk to the action overlords about this. But yeah,

492
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: maybe that's the way to look, because there's no self

493
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 1: evaluation if you get fired as a scapegoat.

494
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 4: So I don't know.

495
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 1: I think I think I may have changed my answer. Well,

496
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 1: you studies as I talk myself into many circles here.

497
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 3: I don't even know what you're saying, but I it

498
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 3: kind of reminds me of like the better than average effect.

499
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,880
Speaker 3: Like seventy percent of people I think somewhere around there

500
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:29,719
Speaker 3: think that they have higher than average intelligence. So shoutut

501
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 3: to those thirty percent that just know that they're not smart.

502
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:34,119
Speaker 4: Amen.

503
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 2: So uh, I don't know about fuck.

504
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, but I think I I think I agree

505
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 3: with your first take, Brandon, for.

506
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: Us, before I started talking, you started sliding then the

507
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: slot into vapid nothingness.

508
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 2: This is how I get to these places though, as

509
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 2: I just like talk myself into the depths of hell.

510
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 1: That's the thing, you know, you gotta you have to

511
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: take into account both sides here. So you know, I

512
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 1: immediately dismissed the fired because you suck thing. But there's

513
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: there's at least merit to that. I think if you're

514
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 1: someone that lacks self awareness, that could be a beneficial

515
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 1: thing for you to then be able to grab hold

516
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 1: of what reality actually is. Is that a more succinct

517
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: version of what we're looking for here? I'll take it

518
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 1: all right, Winter Winter chicken dinner. Let's plant the flag

519
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.

520
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.

521
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planting your flag in that thic. We

522
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: have two games to choose from, but thank you to

523
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 1: the sports books like Draft Kings that are out there

524
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 1: that give us an endless buffet of things to choose from.

525
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 1: I'll go ahead and get us started today because I'm

526
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 1: gonna choose from the derivative buffet. Patriots Broncos first half

527
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 1: under will be where I plant my flag. I have

528
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 1: not bet a side for these games yet, so I

529
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: had to look off the board a little bit. Under

530
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 1: twenty and a half is the number that I'm looking

531
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: at here. I just can't imagine that this is going

532
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 1: to be an aggressively played game by either coach, especially

533
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 1: early on. Vrabel has to know that he can park

534
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 1: the bus for four quarters, don't let the Broncos defense

535
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 1: create momentum with turnovers like we've seen in some of

536
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 1: these other games, and eventually just banking on the fact

537
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 1: that Stidham is going to fold. On that same line

538
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 1: of thinking, the Broncos are likely going to struggle to

539
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 1: score period because of their quarterback play. Even with bow Knicks,

540
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: they ranked sixteenth in the NFL in terms of first

541
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 1: half points per game. Eleven point four is what they

542
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 1: were averaging with a better quarterback, and the Patriots defense

543
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 1: has been lights out so far in the playoffs, averaging

544
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 1: under ten points per game in the postseason so far.

545
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: Denver's defense obviously elite first in sacks, second yards allowed,

546
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 1: and all of those things. So I think we're going

547
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 1: to see an insane effort from the Broncos defensively and

548
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 1: a really low scoring game out of the gate between

549
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 1: these two Patriots. Broncos under twenty and a half is

550
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: my plant the flag. Kendra.

551
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 2: We kind of talked about it a little bit on Sunday,

552
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 2: and then Stucky has talked a little bit about it today,

553
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 2: but my thought process is definitely just that the Patriots

554
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 2: played a really tough defense for the first time last week.

555
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 2: Drake May has had some fumble problems this postseason. The

556
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 2: Broncos defense not that much of a drop off from

557
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 2: the Texans in my opinion, I think that if they

558
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 2: can disturb Drake May from the beginning, the Broncos have

559
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:31,680
Speaker 2: a shot at covering this five and a half. I also,

560
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 2: like I said, love the experience piece of Sean Payton.

561
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 2: I think he's going to be prepared. I think Jarrett's

562
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 2: going to be prepared, and I almost kind of think

563
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 2: that I always prefer these situations where it's that cornered

564
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 2: cap mentality. The Broncos kind of know that they have

565
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 2: nothing in everything to play for at the same time,

566
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 2: which I think, I agree with what Stucky said on Sunday,

567
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 2: just takes so much pressure off of them and puts

568
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 2: it all back on New England. And historically, like I

569
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 2: mentioned Sunday, New England does not play well in Denver

570
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 2: in the postseason and it's a really tough place to play.

571
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 2: So I don't think that the five and a half

572
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 2: is going to get any better. I think if anything,

573
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 2: it's gonna get worse. So take a five and a

574
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 2: half on dropkings while you can get it. I did

575
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 2: it this morning. That's where I'm at.

576
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 1: Stuck.

577
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Broncos too. I'm kind

578
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 3: of it looks like it's coming down. I might play

579
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 3: for five and a half. I was waiting to see

580
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 3: if we get six six and a half. I just

581
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 3: wasn't sure where the market was going to go with this.

582
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 3: But I you know, I mean, like we just saw

583
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 3: the Broncos close as what one and a half point

584
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 3: favorites over the Bills. The Bills are power and higher

585
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 3: than the Patriots in market. I think the Bills are

586
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 3: an overall better team and I can't I can't make

587
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 3: the adjustment from Nicks. I mean, you mentioned like their

588
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 3: offense like fourteenth in points per game in first Their

589
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 3: passing offense I think is like fourteenth or fifteenth. Dvoa

590
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 3: like Nix is like an average quarterback who has like

591
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 3: above average flashes, but he's not elite. He's not in

592
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 3: the elite tier. I can't make this drop off seven points.

593
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 3: That's crazy. And again, the Patriots going on the road.

594
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 3: Denver is not an easy place to play for an

595
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 3: inexperienced quarterback. I mean, especially in January. I mean that

596
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 3: the Broncos have only been home dogs in January five

597
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 3: times in the past twenty five years. They've covered all

598
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 3: five games, including twice in the playoffs. They beat the

599
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 3: Patriots and they won a seven to that point dogs

600
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 3: with Tim Tebow as the quarterback over the Steelers a

601
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 3: bit ago. Peyton elite as a dog sixty one forty

602
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 3: two and two fifty nine percent, sixty seven percent.

603
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 4: Against the spreadman catching over a.

604
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 3: Field goal, and I just think that a lot of

605
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 3: the intangibles are working in Denver's favor. You have, you're

606
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 3: at home, you have nothing to lose. All of the

607
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 3: pressure is on the Patriots now, and they don't have

608
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 3: film on your tendencies, and I think that that uncertainty

609
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 3: can work in their favor if they can just put

610
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 3: a couple of drives together and score in the red

611
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 3: zone against the defense that's one of the worst in

612
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 3: the league defending in the redsidt Before last week, they

613
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 3: were getting up touchdowns on ninety five percent of goal

614
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 3: to go drives ninety five percent. I don't think they

615
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 3: faced forced a field goal in the regular season in

616
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 3: a goal to go situation, so they finish off a

617
00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 3: couple of the drives you're able to put together, surprise

618
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 3: him early, get the screen game going. Like this Patriots team.

619
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 3: I mean last week they looked awful and Stroud was

620
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 3: just that much worse. And they didn't even look great

621
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 3: against the Chargers. It just Herbert was so bad. And

622
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 3: the schedule you can't not talk about it. It's the

623
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 3: easiest schedule we've seen in twenty five years, and then

624
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 3: you could argue it's one of the easiest in playoff history.

625
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, I and look, if you look at Stidham,

626
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,360
Speaker 3: as I mentioned before, we only had two starts, it

627
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 3: could be a complete disaster. It could, but I actually

628
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 3: don't think he's that bad. I think he's like one

629
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,959
Speaker 3: of the better backups in the league. There's a reason

630
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 3: why Peyton went and targeted him. But like he started

631
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 3: two games with the Broncos, two games with the Raiders,

632
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 3: those were horrendous offenses with horrendous offensive lines, and he

633
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 3: was able to put a really good performance against a

634
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 3: good forty nine Ers defense where he threw for nearly

635
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 3: four hundred yards, and like I said, he's playing behind

636
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 3: an elite offensive line, that he has an elite play call,

637
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 3: he's playing at home. And then you have this Patriots

638
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 3: team that their offensive line is a problem. I mean

639
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 3: Will Campbell is a problem. Yeah, you have Nick Benito

640
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 3: who can fully take advantage and the Patriots. Not only

641
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,400
Speaker 3: have the Patriots had a really easy schedule, they've been

642
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:38,240
Speaker 3: extremely lucky.

643
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 4: I've mentioned this spot.

644
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:41,760
Speaker 3: During the regular season, they re covered seventy three percent

645
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:46,760
Speaker 3: of their fumbles. They were covered twelve of their twenty

646
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 3: fumbles and of their own fumbles and ten of their

647
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 3: opponents fourteen fumbles. So they were extremely lucky in fumbles.

648
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 3: And guess what that percentage is held in the postseason.

649
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:00,359
Speaker 3: They've been really lucky with fumbles. Go back to last

650
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:04,439
Speaker 3: week and fumble comms. Fourth downs, they were seventy three

651
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 3: percent on fourth downs, their opponents thirty three percent. And

652
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 3: again this is against one of the easiest schedules in

653
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 3: the league. And then so far in the playoffs they're

654
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 3: sixty seven percent on fourth downs their opponents are forty.

655
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 3: So don't be shocked if you know there's a couple bounces,

656
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 3: a couple fourth downs that go Denver's way, but I

657
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,319
Speaker 3: would argue that Denver has a massive advantage in the

658
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:31,760
Speaker 3: trenches on both sides of the ball, and they're playing

659
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 3: at home, and I just can't get to this number.

660
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm going to plan my flag on the Broncos.

661
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 3: Plus five and a half could be a nice lead

662
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:46,239
Speaker 3: in to Evans Primer because I believe this would be

663
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,840
Speaker 3: maybe something in the seventies, but this would be the

664
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 3: largest home dog in Conference Championship history.

665
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:57,240
Speaker 1: Evan, Well, let's bring them on Evans Tuesday Primer starts

666
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 1: right now, and we'll start with that. Go check it

667
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:03,200
Speaker 1: out Actionnetwork dot com or on the Action Network app.

668
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 1: The Conference Championship Primer. Biggest home dog in Conference Championship history.

669
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, by far too right now? Five and a half

670
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 5: point dogs, So since the merger, it'd be the largest

671
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 5: home dog, and then nineteen sixty eight we had a

672
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 5: larger one, but I believe seating back then was just

673
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 5: kind of randomized, so you had like a home team

674
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 5: that just wasn't as good in that spot. So really,

675
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 5: since we've had seating, this is kind of unprecedented.

676
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 6: And then you have this stat So.

677
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 5: The Bears closed at three and a half last week,

678
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 5: but there were some fours out there, and when the

679
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 5: line closes plus four higher home dogs four plus points

680
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 5: nine to zero against the spread last fifty years in

681
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 5: the playoffs, who and you count the Panthers who covered

682
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 5: against the Rams. So this line massive. I'm stuck. I

683
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:53,400
Speaker 5: kind of like the Broncos in this spot. I just

684
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 5: feel like Peyton will be figuring things out coming with schemes,

685
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 5: and the Patriots don have a lot of film to

686
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 5: go off of, which is difficult.

687
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: You know, it looks like we hit a resistance point

688
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 1: at six. I was shopping around to see what other

689
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 1: books or what they were offering. We hit six with

690
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 1: Denver for a moment that came back down across the

691
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 1: board to five and a half. Same thing for the

692
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 1: other game that we haven't talked as much about because

693
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 1: all of our plant the flags are on the AFC

694
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:25,719
Speaker 1: Championship game, but the Rams got up to three and

695
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:28,839
Speaker 1: now are two and a half in most places that

696
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 1: you look, including on draft kings. Now, part of that

697
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 1: could also be injury related, because Charles Cross is questionable.

698
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,480
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold still on the injury report he was last week.

699
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 1: He's probably gonna play Zach Sharboney out for the year,

700
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 1: so all things that you should be aware of here.

701
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 1: Have you seen the same sort of market resistance Evan

702
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 1: as you've looked up and down these lines, and how

703
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:54,880
Speaker 1: it pertains to what you've done.

704
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 6: Yeah, open one and a half.

705
00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 5: It's just I don't see I don't see this game

706
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 5: being a three points spread, Like I just don't see

707
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 5: the necessity to be giving three full points to the

708
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 5: only duo who has experience in this situation. Like it

709
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:11,920
Speaker 5: just kind of doesn't make sense, makes sense when especially

710
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:14,400
Speaker 5: when you look at the matchups, Like the last game,

711
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 5: the Rams dominated that game, like ignoring the final result

712
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 5: and rewatching it. It was complete domination until you had

713
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 5: like a late game flip.

714
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 3: So I mean, take a point conversion without that fluky

715
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 3: like pick up of rat pass, the Rams win, have

716
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 3: the one seaton.

717
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 4: They're oasting this game.

718
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,399
Speaker 5: But to be fair as well, to be fair as well,

719
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 5: we've the Rams have been kind of I don't want

720
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 5: to say overvalue in the market, but like they are

721
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:41,799
Speaker 5: zero to two against the spread in the playoffs, so

722
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 5: I mean that doesn't matter this week when you're underdogs,

723
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 5: but I mean being in that spot, they're the only

724
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 5: team in history to not cover wild card and divisional

725
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 5: and still be here in the conference championship and then

726
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 5: third straight road game two for the Rams, which is

727
00:39:56,280 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 5: always a difficult task. Regular season playoffs, the numbers are

728
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:03,359
Speaker 5: really really tough when you have to do that. It's

729
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 5: thirty eight percent since two thousand and two regular season

730
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:08,399
Speaker 5: or postseason, and then when you get to the.

731
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 6: Playoffs, twelve and thirty, which is not great numbers.

732
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 2: Are you worried about Sam Donald at all?

733
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 4: Yeah?

734
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 3: I mean that's definitely like the Rams have a better

735
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 3: offensive line, better receivers, the better quarterback. The Seahawks clearly

736
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 3: had the better defense, but I think that like they

737
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 3: can get pressure too, And we've seen Donald make like

738
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 3: he should have his pick should have ended that it

739
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 3: took a punt return, His pick should have ended the

740
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 3: second game is an awful pick. He threw a million

741
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 3: picks in the first meeting. And the Rams can get

742
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 3: pressure and that's when Donald really melts down. And this

743
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 3: offense has not been great for a month and a half.

744
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 3: It just gets masked because they their defense scores, their

745
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 3: special teams score, and they go up so big on teams.

746
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,799
Speaker 3: But this offense has kind of been figured out a bit.

747
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:01,399
Speaker 3: I mean, even if you if you remove garbage time,

748
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 3: if you remove garbage time. Since week thirteen, they're twenty

749
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 3: seventh in epapri play fifteenth and success rate. And they've

750
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:09,919
Speaker 3: played the Panthers and the forty nine ers twice over

751
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 3: the past three games, and the forty nine Ers had

752
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 3: like no defense, and yeah, the Rams dominated that game.

753
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 3: I won a three in that game. Basically, I don't

754
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 3: even if it's like minus one twenty. I'm fine with

755
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 3: that too. That's what I'm I'm waiting for, because you

756
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 3: go back.

757
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 4: I bet the.

758
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 3: Seahawks plus one in the first meeting. Well, in the

759
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:34,240
Speaker 3: second meeting in week sixteen, it closed minus one, minus

760
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 3: one and a half dead wrong side, dead wrong side.

761
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 3: The Rams should have won that game. They dominated that

762
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 3: game five to eighty one to four fifteen yardage edge.

763
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 3: And that's even what the Seahawks playing from behind.

764
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 4: And there's they.

765
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 3: Had no atoms, no dots in, no lake on the

766
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 3: defensive end, and the Seahawks were fully healthy. So you're

767
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,319
Speaker 3: gonna tell me now this should be three. Now I

768
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 3: get like that. It's worth noting the Seahawks have a

769
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:05,240
Speaker 3: special team's edge, big special team's edge, and the situation

770
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 3: isn't great, right, it's your third straight road game after

771
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 3: overtime on right, And then the Seahawks had a buy

772
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 3: and then a laugher where they didn't have to exude

773
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:20,840
Speaker 3: anything and they get to stay at home. So like situationally,

774
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 3: But we've only seen over the past twenty years two

775
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 3: teams after an overtime game on the road go on

776
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 3: the road again, and both those teams, I mean it's

777
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:32,759
Speaker 3: sampatized too. Both those teams rolled the next week, so

778
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 3: they and they dominated the next week. Mcveigh's only had

779
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 3: three straight road games one time came back in twenty eighteen.

780
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 3: They won by thirty eight and in that season, the

781
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:48,360
Speaker 3: Patriots beat the Rams in the Super Bowl, So maybe

782
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:52,840
Speaker 3: that's a sign of things that come. But yeah, I

783
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:56,359
Speaker 3: just want to three in that game. But to answer

784
00:42:56,400 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 3: your original question, and yeah, I think we certainly have

785
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,799
Speaker 3: to be worried about Donald here against the pressure of

786
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 3: the rems, especially if the Seahawks left tackles out in

787
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 3: their backup is banged up too, so that could certainly

788
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 3: be a major issue in that game. So yeah, I

789
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:17,919
Speaker 3: think it's natural to I think it makes sense it's

790
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:20,040
Speaker 3: logical to worry about Donald. But to Evan's point, the

791
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 3: Rams haven't been playing since that meltdown against the Seahawks.

792
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 3: It's just every week something is off right, like the

793
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:32,719
Speaker 3: defense gets shredded, or like last week Stafford didn't look right.

794
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 3: So there's just been something off with the Rams, and

795
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 3: like the Seahawks kind of keep the sending with that

796
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 3: defense just seemingly getting better each and every week. But

797
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 3: Donald could certainly melt down here with a couple of

798
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:47,919
Speaker 3: turnovers that end up costing Seattle to game.

799
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:52,879
Speaker 1: We've seen last week, Evan had it where when Sam

800
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 1: Donald's favored by a touchdown or more, he's actually been

801
00:43:56,960 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 1: really good against the spread. What about in tight game

802
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 1: situations as far as the thinner spreads two and a

803
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:09,239
Speaker 1: half three, is that when trend wise we should be

804
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 1: concerned about backing Sam Darnold.

805
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 6: You look at those numbers right now as I'm reloading

806
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 6: my screen.

807
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 5: But to look at Stuck's point as well, you look

808
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 5: at EPA per play since week ten, the Patriots are

809
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:24,239
Speaker 5: first offensive ep per play, the Rams are second, the

810
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 5: Seahawks are nineteenth. So if you just look at how

811
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 5: that's rolled recently, like I just think either of these

812
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 5: teams can be off when there's usually consistency when a

813
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 5: team makes a conference championship, and you're just not getting

814
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 5: that this year. So I just find it really fascinating

815
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:43,360
Speaker 5: that you've got both of these teams in this spot

816
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 5: because Seattle like really just hasn't needed to be that

817
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:51,479
Speaker 5: type of team, Like it hasn't mattered for them, which

818
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 5: intriguing nonetheless.

819
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:56,840
Speaker 6: So Sam Darnold career against the spread when the spread

820
00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:01,240
Speaker 6: is four or less either direction, I mean, pretty decent.

821
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 5: He is twenty seven and twenty five, but that just

822
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 5: takes a lot of teams. In fact, when he's with Seattle,

823
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 5: he's seven and three against the spread, So he's been

824
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:11,839
Speaker 5: pretty decent in that spot. And even if you take

825
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 5: in Minnesota, it's thirteen eight and one, So covering numbers

826
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 5: either direction not not terrible.

827
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:20,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, good stuff. Gohe and check it out actionnetwork dot

828
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 1: com or on the Action Network app. It's Evans Conference

829
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:28,360
Speaker 1: Championship primer to recap our plant the Flag picks presented

830
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:32,360
Speaker 1: by DraftKings. Kendra has the Broncos plus five and a

831
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 1: half against New England. Stucky Broncos plus five and a

832
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 1: half against the Patriots and I am on the Patriots

833
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 1: Broncos first half under at twenty and a half points.

834
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 1: Those are our Plant the Flag games presented by Draft Kings.

835
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 1: The Crown is yours. That'll do it for today's episode

836
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:53,720
Speaker 1: special thanks to our producers David Paine and Gifford Gold.

837
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 1: By the time we come back on Thursday, we'll have

838
00:45:56,800 --> 00:46:00,799
Speaker 1: a play on Seahawks Rams a lot more to dive

839
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:03,440
Speaker 1: into as far as that game goes on which side

840
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,760
Speaker 1: we eventually land on between the Seahawks and the Rams.

841
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,399
Speaker 1: Go and check out the Action Network YouTube page where

842
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 1: we will of course be back on Thursday with our

843
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:15,879
Speaker 1: official plays in the conference championship games. Nominate our two

844
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:18,360
Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen parlay and all that good stuff

845
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 1: for Kendrim, Middleton and Stuckey. I'm Brandon Kravitz. We'll see

846
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:23,720
Speaker 1: you next time you're on the favorites.

847
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

848
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

849
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler