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Speaker 1: check out. This is a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so

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Speaker 1: use that code well. Sometimes I like to have a

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Speaker 1: guest that you know. Both will inform all of us,

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Speaker 1: not just you the audience, But it also gives me

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Speaker 1: a chance to find out how are people thinking about

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Speaker 1: this current era of economic uncertainty, whether it's inflation, market volatility,

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Speaker 1: questions about the future of social security, the national debt.

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Speaker 1: So what does financial stability look like? You know, people

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Speaker 1: my age and above, we're sitting here in between retirement,

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Speaker 1: in our peak earning years we're constantly worried about this. Well,

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Speaker 1: my guest today runs a firm that advises individuals navigating

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Speaker 1: that uncertainty, Paul Auslander. So in many ways, he is

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Speaker 1: a front row seat to at least to the conversation

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Speaker 1: that he's hearing from every day investors that are reacting

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Speaker 1: to this moment. This is not, by the way, I

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Speaker 1: don't want you to think he's not a sponsor. I'm

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Speaker 1: not pitching him to be a sponsor. He's literally this

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Speaker 1: is a conversation to try to hear what are investors

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Speaker 1: hearing out there from every day. We constantly know what

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Speaker 1: the big private equity people want to hear here, what

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Speaker 1: about the rest of us, because in many ways that

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Speaker 1: will tell us what this economy looks like over the

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Speaker 1: next couple of years. What are the behaviors happening? What

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Speaker 1: are the questions every day investors are asking of experts

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Speaker 1: like Paul. And he's been doing this quite a long

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Speaker 1: time and he has seen ups and down. So Paul,

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Speaker 1: welcome to the podcast.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Chuck, I appreciate it. Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, let's do a little Like I said, this

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Speaker 1: is not a meant to be a sales pitch or sponsorship.

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Speaker 1: This is not anything like that. But give me, give

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Speaker 1: me a little bit of your origin story. How did

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Speaker 1: you end up in this position and why do you

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Speaker 1: do this? And say not run some other business or

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Speaker 1: something like that.

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Speaker 2: Well, it was a securitut route, you know. I didn't

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Speaker 2: know what I wanted to do in school. I was,

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Speaker 2: besides trying to stay in school, I was a struggling musician,

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Speaker 2: so I kept dropping out and going to play with

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Speaker 2: bands and then go back and do a semester. I

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Speaker 2: finally lit into something that I like, keyboards, piano mainly. Yeah. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: So I played a little bit of everything, but the

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Speaker 2: piano I probably spent more time on. That same mother

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Speaker 2: was cracking the which she played as well. But I

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Speaker 2: found I had a bit of a feeling for numbers

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Speaker 2: and still didn't know what I was going to do

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Speaker 2: when I got out of school and just stumbled, literally

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Speaker 2: stumbled into this profession that was very nascent at the time,

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Speaker 2: financial planning, and I got my certification as a financial planner,

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Speaker 2: which was at that time a relatively new designation. Financial

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Speaker 2: planning at that point was really being done by insurance agents.

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Speaker 1: It's sort of late seventies early eighties, not to exactly.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, got the CFP in eighty seven, but yeah, I

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Speaker 2: started in nineteen eighty so built up a practice and

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Speaker 2: a business, and I do it to this day. I

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Speaker 2: mean I could have retired a few years ago. I

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Speaker 2: love it. I enjoy it. It's now become mainstream. Got

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Speaker 2: involved here in the state of Florida, with the help

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Speaker 2: of our CFO Alex Singing, to push the concept of

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Speaker 2: financial literacy for students, because I think it's amazing how

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Speaker 2: many kids don't know anything about finance when they come out.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's just going to labor a love.

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Speaker 2: Over the years, I've kind of migrated into what they

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Speaker 2: call the family office face, where I'm dealing with wealthier

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Speaker 2: and wealthier people who aren't sure exactly what they're going

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Speaker 2: to do. And a lot of them happened to come

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Speaker 2: down here from Florida from my native New York, so

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Speaker 2: I had.

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Speaker 1: A nice they moved to my home state of Florida

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Speaker 1: for all these things. Yeah, what is it about? Is

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Speaker 1: there something in the tax code? I don't know, I've

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Speaker 1: never heard of it.

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Speaker 2: Now, it's taxes and weather. Frankly though, it's getting a

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Speaker 2: little different. Now. You know, it's legal to carry a

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Speaker 2: gun into publics now, open carry, So some of us

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Speaker 2: are going, you know, let's let's not ruin a good thing.

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Speaker 1: So, you know, it's funny you say that. I often

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Speaker 1: wonder when is when is sort of this when is

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Speaker 1: it gone too far? The sort of you know, one

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Speaker 1: person's argument for freedom it actually impedes upon the freedom

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Speaker 1: of others right, freedom of security and things like that.

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Speaker 1: And I think I'm waiting for that moment in Florida.

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Speaker 1: I think we right now, it's a we've been doing

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Speaker 1: big swings. We haven't had the big swings. Probably do

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Speaker 1: sometime soon. It's probably going to have to do with

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Speaker 1: property insurance ultimately, but we'll see. I think, yeah, Look,

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Speaker 1: my father was a tried to get into this space,

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Speaker 1: spent a decade in this space, and passed away before

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Speaker 1: ever found a chance whether this was going to succeed

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Speaker 1: or fail. But you're right, it was a it was

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Speaker 1: sort of a new thing in the eight and so I,

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Speaker 1: you know, I learned little things like Option Friday, which

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Speaker 1: was always a crazy day in my dad's life. And

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Speaker 1: I got to know option Friday as a teenager in

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Speaker 1: a negative light. But that's a whole nother story.

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Speaker 2: But what I what I to your point, they were

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Speaker 2: a lot of stockbrokers, there, a lot of insurance folks

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Speaker 2: that wanted to give a higher level of service to

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Speaker 2: try to help their clients, you know, not just sell

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Speaker 2: them a product. That was really the genesis.

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Speaker 1: No, there was, and you saw and it was it

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Speaker 1: was funny how the you know. I remember my father

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Speaker 1: used ag Edwards at the time as sort of his

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Speaker 1: home base for this. And eventually, I think AG Edwards

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Speaker 1: and your merrilllynches said, wait a minute, we got all

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Speaker 1: these independent operators using you know, we're missing out on

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Speaker 1: something here, you know. And it seems like that push

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Speaker 1: and pull exists to this day. Right, You've got your

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Speaker 1: big institutions, you know, they want your money and they

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Speaker 1: say they can help you plan for retirement. And then

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Speaker 1: you still have the individuals out there going no, no, no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: I can give you more personalized service.

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Speaker 2: There is that, and then the line of demarcation really

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Speaker 2: is fiduciary service versus non fiduciary service. And I think

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Speaker 2: that's the big buzzword going forward. I think that's the

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Speaker 2: differentiator in the profession. Now, Folks that are offering it

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Speaker 2: a service where they they have to be accountable for

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Speaker 2: their advice as opposed to folks that don't, because it

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Speaker 2: is it's a massive responsibility. Folks have worked all their life,

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Speaker 2: and then if they get with the wrong person or

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Speaker 2: the wrong firm and that money gets taken away from

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Speaker 2: them in some way, shape or form, that it's non recoverable.

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Speaker 1: You know, part of your job is to under You've

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Speaker 1: got to understand politics at least enough to know, you know,

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Speaker 1: what you should be investing in, what you shouldn't be

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Speaker 1: investing in, or what you should be hedging and what

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Speaker 1: you shouldn't be hedging. I mean, in fact, my financial

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Speaker 1: advisor and I get together as much for him to

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Speaker 1: pick my brain as I do to pick his. When

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Speaker 1: we have this we have almost you know, about twice

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Speaker 1: a month, we try to have breakfast where we're trying

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Speaker 1: you know, he's trying to like, well, how long do

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Speaker 1: you think this shutdown is going to last? Or if

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Speaker 1: we do this? What you know? And so I do

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Speaker 1: think people in your space can tell us something about

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Speaker 1: the public's behavior, because ultimately it's the public's behavior here

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Speaker 1: that's going to dictate the health of this economy and

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Speaker 1: the health of our democracy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's never been so stark. By the way,

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Speaker 2: in the old days, there were you know, three things

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Speaker 2: you wouldn't talk about, and one of them were politics.

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Speaker 2: Right today ansects. But today it's the first thing that

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Speaker 2: comes up, and I see it particularly where I am.

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Speaker 2: I'm in a little town halfway between Clearwater and Saint

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Speaker 2: Petersburg called bel Air, which is which is a pretty

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Speaker 2: conservative area. And if you don't answer those initial questions right,

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Speaker 2: you're not getting them. As a client, I've worked really

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Speaker 2: hard to try to keep a middle of the road approach,

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Speaker 2: not only in my interviews and my panels, but with

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Speaker 2: the clients because there's certain certain facts in the economy

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Speaker 2: that don't change with the politics.

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Speaker 1: Right. Well, that's always you know, look, this is the

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Speaker 1: world that I always say, I'm looking at this dispassionately

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Speaker 1: as best I can. And I understand if I'm not

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Speaker 1: a cheerleader, you think I'm an opponent, and it's like, no,

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Speaker 1: I'm just trying. I'm just being realistic. I'm just covering

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Speaker 1: politics as it is, not as I wish or were.

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Speaker 2: Right, right, Yeah, So you know, I try to counsel

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Speaker 2: clients into spending less time on one of the networks

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Speaker 2: that either infuriates them or makes them cheer, and more

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Speaker 2: about understanding why the companies are doing well and what

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Speaker 2: their risk tolerance is and how much they should diversify.

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Speaker 2: As an example, for ten years, nobody in our profession

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Speaker 2: put any money overseas. Last year the European index has doubled,

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Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred, giving President Trumps some

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Speaker 2: credit for this. He's forced the European companies countries to

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Speaker 2: start investing in their defense, which in turns become very profitable.

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Speaker 2: So you're seeing changes, and there's an example of the

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Speaker 2: politics impacting it, but overall, general economic principles still apply.

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Speaker 2: You know, the whole notion is to spend less than

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Speaker 2: your earn and save something.

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Speaker 1: Right, So let's talk. I am curious, what are the

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Speaker 1: political concerned? What are the politically charged questions you get

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Speaker 1: when it comes to investment strategy? What would you say

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Speaker 1: the threat? You know, I certainly have three or four

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Speaker 1: in my head, but before I get to mine, what

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Speaker 1: are some of the questions you have clients asking you

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Speaker 1: in order to potentially find a hedge against a current

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Speaker 1: situation or not.

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Speaker 2: What are some of the I mean, the first primary

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Speaker 2: thing that comes up is tax policy, and we hear

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Speaker 2: that regularly, and that of course impacts a lot of

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Speaker 2: the way in which a client receives their money, and

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Speaker 2: so we talk about that a lot. And tax policy

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Speaker 2: has been fairly favorable under this administration for investors. You

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Speaker 2: could argue that perhaps for other people not so much.

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Speaker 2: But and secondly, and to your point earlier, it's really

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Speaker 2: a K shaped economy in many ways. The haves are

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Speaker 2: getting wealthier and the haves not Many are on the edge,

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Speaker 2: and so that's a bigger, longer discussion and a question.

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Speaker 2: But for the folks that are on the top side

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Speaker 2: of that K, tax policy is a big deal, both

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Speaker 2: income tax and a state taxes that comes up later

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Speaker 2: in the conversation. You have conversations about should we be

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Speaker 2: spending money helping other countries spend for themselves? Where is

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Speaker 2: our money spent here? Even immigration. I have a number

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Speaker 2: of restaurant owners who are die hard conservative Republicans who

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Speaker 2: have lost seventy eighty percent of their stats. That's an

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Speaker 2: interesting conversation. So they because of immigration policy, right, So

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Speaker 2: I mean, it comes up, but you try to guide

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Speaker 2: them back to the middle, and I think I've done

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Speaker 2: it right, but you never know. I mean, I admire

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Speaker 2: you and your financial advisor for sitting a couple of

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Speaker 2: times a month and going over things, because besides talking

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Speaker 2: the politics, it's good to have that contact. Right. One

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Speaker 2: of the things I try to do is go see

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Speaker 2: the clients, or know today in the age of zoom,

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Speaker 2: do this with clients so that we can talk about

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Speaker 2: the things that they might be worrying about. You know,

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Speaker 2: it impacts people's retirement ages too. You know, a lot

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Speaker 2: of folks were aiming pre COVID to retire already, right,

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Speaker 2: A lot of them have decided to stay on a

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Speaker 2: little longer for a few reasons, including a couple of

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Speaker 2: market downturns where their four A one K was really

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Speaker 2: their tool one K for a couple of years.

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Speaker 1: It's a good line. I see what you did there.

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Speaker 1: Let me start with financial is a little financial humor.

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Speaker 1: Let me start with the the issue that that I

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Speaker 1: am planning for. But I'm curious how much it comes up.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I've always you know, I will gen

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Speaker 1: x is you know has to pay the bills of

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Speaker 1: the boomers. We've had to pay the bills of the

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Speaker 1: boomers for some time now, and the biggest bill is

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Speaker 1: yet to come, and that bill is going to be

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Speaker 1: Social Security, and there is a built in cut coming.

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Speaker 1: You can just feel it. It's going to be. They'll

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Speaker 1: always pay benefits, but there'll be a cut in how big,

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Speaker 1: you know, in what you're you know, we'll probably get

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Speaker 1: seventy five percent of what we do, not one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent of what we're doing. We'll be the first generation

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Speaker 1: because we're the smallest MILLENNI and you know it's all

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Speaker 1: about millennials and Gen Z and ever. That's always been

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Speaker 1: the problem for Gen X. But I am planning and

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Speaker 1: assuming not nothing on Social Security, but a less than

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Speaker 1: what people have been counting on currently. A. Do you

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Speaker 1: advise clients that way that are in my age bracket?

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Speaker 1: In that gen X age bracket, So we're essentially fifty

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Speaker 1: to sixty four right now? Right you know, we're born

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Speaker 1: in sixty five, So we're just that that that's our

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Speaker 1: that's our age range. Are you telling people to plan

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Speaker 1: for that or not?

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Speaker 2: So there's a couple of answers to that. Number One,

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Speaker 2: I don't subscribe to the theory that we're in as

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Speaker 2: disastrous shape, as many people believe we are if we

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Speaker 2: keep it currently the way it is. It's amazing what

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Speaker 2: the math does if you push retirement out a couple

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Speaker 2: of years. So if you take it off of sixty

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Speaker 2: seven and take it to sixty nine, suddenly that trust

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Speaker 2: fund lasts a heck of a lot longer. That's number one.

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Speaker 2: Number two. There's me testing, right, So forget about you

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Speaker 2: and I and all the mortals in the world. Talk

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Speaker 2: about all the people that are now populating Miami, right,

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Speaker 2: they wouldn't be And I'm talking about Indian You know,

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Speaker 2: the areas of Miami which are attracting the Mark Zuckerberg's

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Speaker 2: and other people of the world.

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Speaker 1: Right, they again, literally the profet islands that the general

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Speaker 1: public of Miami aren't allowed on.

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Speaker 2: But you get too right, right, But so they say

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Speaker 2: they wouldn't be eligible, or they wouldn't get it, or

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Speaker 2: they'd have to pay a higher tax. But I do

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Speaker 2: caution people your age that you have to be aware

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Speaker 2: that something might change. I don't not to disagree too much,

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Speaker 2: but I don't think a seventy five percent of the

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent that you would get is realistic. I

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Speaker 2: think that's political suicide in this country. I think whether

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Speaker 2: it's Republican or Democrats, I don't.

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Speaker 1: Know the reason. I take your point, and it has

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Speaker 1: been if there was ever a generation you could probably

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Speaker 1: punish without as much blowback, it's the smallest one alive,

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Speaker 1: which is.

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Speaker 2: What they're going what I see happen. And I think

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Speaker 2: it's the generation behind you. It's your children, it's it's

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Speaker 2: my children be a little bit older than yours.

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Speaker 1: It's millennial, miliennium. My kids are gen z. I guess

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Speaker 1: it's your kids are millennial, right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. And I see them having this, them having

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Speaker 2: the biggest impact, right, But they're already not planning for it.

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Speaker 2: They're thinking to themselves, it's not going to be there.

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Speaker 2: They don't trust this system anyway.

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Speaker 1: And they by the way, that was how it's funny

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Speaker 1: you say that. My wife and I discussed this all

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Speaker 1: the time when the thirty year old versions of us

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Speaker 1: were constantly message that, and so that was the message

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Speaker 1: of the eighties and nineties. So yeah, we actually we

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Speaker 1: actually planned that way.

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Speaker 2: I also think what's going to happen is the same

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Speaker 2: evolution that it cared, or you might call it a

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Speaker 2: revolution that occurred and defined benefit pension plans where a

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Speaker 2: GM before had a pension plan that you had for

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Speaker 2: many years and then you got an income that got

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Speaker 2: converted to a four to oh one k where you

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Speaker 2: ended up doing your own investing and it was up

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Speaker 2: to you as to how you're atalronment plan? Did. I

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Speaker 2: think that's going to happen to Social Security. Many administrations

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Speaker 2: have tried to privatize it. It hasn't happened. I think

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Speaker 2: that's more likely for a generation back, in other words,

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Speaker 2: younger people for it.

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Speaker 1: That's probably for you know, the only way you pull

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Speaker 1: that off, it's got to start almost like you know,

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Speaker 1: only those under thirty five or something like that, right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, And I think we have the beginnings of

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Speaker 2: that with Brad Gersner and others who have come up

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Speaker 2: with these from America concepts that President Trump has put

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Speaker 2: his name on, which again I think that's that's going

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Speaker 2: to be a start that he.

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Speaker 1: Put his name on it because he polarizes something that

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Speaker 1: might might.

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Speaker 2: Actually be a good idea for people. Yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 1: So you're you're it's look, we could you know, do

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Speaker 1: you remember the notch babies? I know, I can't say

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Speaker 1: that I do so there was a small period of

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Speaker 1: time where we had this small group of Americans born

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Speaker 1: we like made this decision to like cut their social

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Speaker 1: Security and it was for this like group of people.

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Speaker 1: Every year Congress had to like do the notch baby

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Speaker 1: fix to make sure they got their whole The point

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Speaker 1: is it was it was one of the early attempts

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Speaker 1: to try to reign in the growth of social Security

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Speaker 1: so that it didn't overwhelm the federal budget. And of

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Speaker 1: course you're not wrong. It was politically just so even

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Speaker 1: it was a small group of people, the experiment was

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Speaker 1: so unpopular. So in some ways to support your pushback

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Speaker 1: on me, I give you notch babies and and.

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Speaker 2: And thank you for telling me that I'm a political

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Speaker 2: junkie and I'm in the financial business, and I had

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Speaker 2: not heard of it, so I figured i'd know.

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Speaker 1: I think all the notch babies are dead. I think

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Speaker 1: that's why, all right, so that a lot of I

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Speaker 1: doubt you have a client left that that was would

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Speaker 1: be a quote unquote nottch baby. But if every serves,

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Speaker 1: there was this this small so that's certainly one thing

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Speaker 1: I think about. Now let me let me go with

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Speaker 1: another direction here. There is money to be made off

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Speaker 1: of bad Trump policies that you know is going to

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Speaker 1: go away when Trump goes away. But it feels icky.

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Speaker 1: How do you How do you deal with that?

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Speaker 2: I love how you express it. You try to stay

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Speaker 2: agnostic about those things. Right in the end of the day,

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Speaker 2: my job is to try to make sure that the

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Speaker 2: client has what they need and what they've goed for,

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Speaker 2: and in the case of larger family offices, to protect

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Speaker 2: the family wealth that the founder or the matriarch or

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Speaker 2: patriarch created. If I sense that it's it's become a

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Speaker 2: political discussion and that they're really in favor of something,

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Speaker 2: or in the case of a lot of my liberal

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Speaker 2: clients who have a lot of money and will absolutely

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Speaker 2: not go near anything that smells of this administration, we'll

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Speaker 2: work with it, you know. I mean that's part of

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Speaker 2: the discovery process.

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Speaker 1: And look at I look at it as crypto in general,

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Speaker 1: like I feel like, you know, what we saw right

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Speaker 1: is is there's a in some ways crypto has become

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Speaker 1: a special interest and they spent a lot of money

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Speaker 1: to when they decided that that one party wasn't going

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Speaker 1: to give them what they wanted, they said, all right, well,

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Speaker 1: we're going to invest all this and they have you know,

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Speaker 1: they're they're doing this the old fashioned way in Washington,

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Speaker 1: which is they're buying supporters. You know, they're throwing money

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Speaker 1: at and they're trying to buy bipartisan support. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they're using a blueprint that has that has been used

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Speaker 1: in the modern era for basically one hundred years. So

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Speaker 1: I bring that up because crypto feels like something you

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Speaker 1: can make money on now. But there's another administration and

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Speaker 1: probably when the pitchforks come and the electorate changes a

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Speaker 1: little bit, or the elected official makeup changes a little bit,

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Speaker 1: some serious regulation is coming. If I were in your shoes,

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Speaker 1: I'd be trying to figure out how do you both

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Speaker 1: help a client make money in that moment and hedge

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Speaker 1: against it down the road. Again, as you said, take

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Speaker 1: your own morals and ethics aside a minute. This is

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Speaker 1: the reality. You know that crypto is going to get

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Speaker 1: some value short term, and you know more regulation is

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Speaker 1: coming in the medium term. How are you how do

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Speaker 1: you manage that? How do you advise You know, obviously

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Speaker 1: you're being very careful. Look, you sort of the client's

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Speaker 1: got a passionate position on it. You deal with it

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Speaker 1: one way. But if they're sort of neutral, I've come

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Speaker 1: to you like, look, you know, is there a would

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Speaker 1: you say, is there money to be made short term

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Speaker 1: in here that's worth the risk? And b I do

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Speaker 1: know more financial regulation is coming. How do we prepare

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Speaker 1: for it?

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Speaker 2: So I'm not sure about the second one, but the

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Speaker 2: first one is a pretty easy answer. You know, crypto

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Speaker 2: was around before Trump hit the scene, and Crypto in

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Speaker 2: this whole blockchain is a revolution that's occurring and will

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Speaker 2: continue to occur way past Donald Trump and whoever his

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Speaker 2: successor is. Also, we have a history of not putting

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Speaker 2: in regulations after we've decided not to put in the

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Speaker 2: regulations or change regulations later on. We had a very

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Speaker 2: conservative SEC chair prior to the one that's in now.

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Speaker 2: This SEC chair that's in now is much more allowing

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Speaker 2: for these types of things. I think crypto the train

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Speaker 2: has already lost left the station right. There are many,

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Speaker 2: many large organizations that have considerable exposure to crypto. I

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Speaker 2: think crypto goes down before it goes up again. But

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Speaker 2: this is a trade. This is not a store of

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Speaker 2: value like gold has taken that position. It's a trade

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Speaker 2: and people are trading it like any asset class, it

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Speaker 2: happens to be a newer asset class. I think the

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Speaker 2: great part about our markets is time will tell if

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Speaker 2: it's a good asset class or not. And it's going

433
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 2: to be one of those things where buyer beware.

434
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you

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450
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Speaker 1: and he tried it out. Lauren, how was your experience.

451
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Speaker 2: I'll be honest, Chuck.

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458
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493
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 1: slash the Chuck Podcast. Is there an example in the

494
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 1: past that you could come up with that was seen

495
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:13,679
Speaker 1: as a good asset, good commodity that turned out to

496
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:18,160
Speaker 1: be wrong and eventually the market told you it was wrong?

497
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 2: You know, I really can't. I think I would. I

498
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 2: would think about that, and if I've come up with it,

499
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 2: send you an email after this show.

500
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 1: Me let me throw one out you because the closest

501
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 1: And I'm curious if you think this works because I

502
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: was young when it happened when the Hunt Brothers tried

503
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 1: to corner the silver mark silver Yeah, yeah, And they

504
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:44,679
Speaker 1: were basically trying to raise the floor of value on

505
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 1: silver because they they were long on silver, right, I

506
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 1: mean I, I may I have my specifics wrong here,

507
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 1: and it came crashing down on them. And there was

508
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 1: a part of that that I wondered if there was

509
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 1: a lesson to be learned.

510
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 2: Well, if the family went seventy five, the family lost

511
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 2: seventy five percent of its net worth in that example.

512
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 2: So that was that was the number one punishment, right,

513
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 2: I mean, that's a good example. But silver wasn't the

514
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 2: evil person there. Silver wasn't wasn't the issue. The issue

515
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 2: was the way in which the traders were trying to

516
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 2: corner the market and do it. And if you look

517
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 2: at silver now, right, silver and gold have had the

518
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 2: best run they've had in years in the last in

519
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 2: the last year, it's coming out.

520
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: I'll tell you that silver and gold are moving up

521
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 1: like this and as they are behaving like the sort

522
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 1: of safe haven that people want to treat them as.

523
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 1: But there is not a single crypto asset that is

524
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:38,160
Speaker 1: behaving in that way.

525
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,919
Speaker 2: I think. I think, well, they're two different assets, right,

526
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,919
Speaker 2: I think silver and gold. You have central banks buying

527
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 2: silver and gold, right, you don't have central banks necessarily

528
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 2: buying crypto. You have central banks buying to.

529
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 1: Be shocked when don't be shocked when arms get twisted

530
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 1: to force that in order to prop up the price

531
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 1: of bitcoin.

532
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 2: But yeah, but I think no, But I think I

533
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 2: think there's a general fear out there that you know,

534
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 2: uncertainty causes a lot of concern, right, and there's a

535
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,199
Speaker 2: lot of uncertainty in the economy. Part of that has

536
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 2: been President Trump and the Trump's, the terrorists being going

537
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 2: one way, one one direction, and then another direction. So

538
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 2: I think that's part of it. And I think when

539
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 2: people are really nervous, plus you add an all time

540
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 2: high to the stock market, I think you have people

541
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 2: buying these assets as a safe haven. I don't think

542
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,919
Speaker 2: it's any more complicated than that. It's also been a

543
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 2: trade frankly, particularly silver and gold, not so much where

544
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 2: people the traders are just having a good time with

545
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 2: something that's always been kind of stale and now suddenly

546
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 2: came to life.

547
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 1: So it's sort of one of those is it's getting

548
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 1: a little action, then it gets marketed or it almost

549
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: goes viral.

550
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 2: I think that's exactly right, I think, and I think

551
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 2: social media helps set along. I think that's the whole

552
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 2: memes stock idea. And I don't necessarily see that that's

553
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 2: not investing in that wealth management we talked about earlier

554
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 2: in this discussion. That's really just trades and people just

555
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 2: playing the momentum.

556
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: You say you deal with a lot of family offices.

557
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 1: How many of them are trying to hedge by moving

558
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 1: money out of the United States.

559
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 2: They're moving money, well, they're concerned about the dollar, so

560
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 2: to that extent, they're moving some money out of state,

561
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 2: out of the States, but there's no equal safety net

562
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 2: anywhere else than the dollar to them. So more of

563
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 2: them are moving it into real estate if they want

564
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 2: to get out of the market, or gold. And that's

565
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 2: we're seeing quite a bit of that, quite a bit

566
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 2: of that now. The international markets they've warmed to that

567
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 2: because they've seen the money that's being spent in Europe

568
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 2: now on not only defense but on infrastructury building. One

569
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 2: of these nasty little facts up there is you can

570
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 2: no longer drive a Porsche at one hundred and ten

571
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 2: miles an hour on the Autobahn because the Germans have

572
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 2: been so austere that they haven't fixed their podles on

573
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 2: the Augabon so and this became really came to light

574
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 2: when NATO talking about moving tanks over certain bridges that

575
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 2: had to cross Germany to Poland. The bridges wouldn't hold

576
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 2: the tanks. So this is an example of money being spent.

577
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 2: Part of it is you kind of shake your head

578
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: and go, how could they let that happen? That's the

579
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 2: Postmarkel years. But the other side of it, and it's

580
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 2: really an issue, but a positive issue from investment, is

581
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 2: that these companies that do that type of work will

582
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 2: be profitable for a while. You could say the same

583
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 2: thing in certain emerging markets where they're going to do

584
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 2: pretty well. And the family offices have been ahead of

585
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 2: that game. They've been going in that direction for the

586
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 2: better part of a year. And some of that has

587
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 2: been political, right, some of them have recognized that Trump's

588
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 2: going to push them to do things that they didn't

589
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 2: want to do the European countries, and they're responding and

590
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 2: doing it. And family offices didn't get that wealthy by

591
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 2: being stupid. They recognize that there's an opportunity there.

592
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 1: The family office. You know, for those that are not

593
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 1: familiar with that language, it's usually it's inherited. It's usually

594
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 1: second least second generation, third generation and sort of wealth

595
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 1: right that is now.

596
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 2: For interrupting, but now more first generation because of the

597
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 2: tech wealth. Right, So a Zuckerberg has a family office

598
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 2: or Bezos and all of them. But to your point,

599
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 2: Kennedy's didn't put a family office together until Joseph Kennedy

600
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 2: was getting pretty old, right, and it was really already

601
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 2: moved down to the younger, younger generation. It was a

602
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 2: method of privacy, right. The idea was that they didn't

603
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 2: want anybody really knowing what they had exactly, and what

604
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 2: kind of trades they were making, and what kind of

605
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 2: banks they had money at. And they couldn't just swear

606
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 2: their accountants and their attorneys to secrecy, so they could

607
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 2: employ them and threaten to fire them from that job

608
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 2: if they said anything. And so they created that years ago.

609
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 2: It was one hundred million dollars was a qualifier for

610
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 2: a family office. Today you wouldn't really, it doesn't make

611
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 2: sense financially to start under a billion dollars of family networth.

612
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 2: You plug into something called a multi family office, which

613
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 2: is what we do in one of our visions, where

614
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 2: we essentially help a number of families and they commingle

615
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 2: their assets for certain investment opportunities. They commingle their assets

616
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 2: for economies of scale with advisors that type of thing.

617
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 2: Big change a couple of years ago where the SEC

618
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 2: required them to register as investment advisors, and it was

619
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 2: knocked back but it was. It was a big deal

620
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 2: because a lot of these Once you register as an

621
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 2: investment advisor, now the SEC knows what you're doing, and

622
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 2: it defeats that whole privacy issue. So there's some complications there.

623
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 1: Well, I will tell you, and I want to just

624
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 1: sort of share with listeners and viewers why I've become

625
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 1: more interested in family offices. As you look for investors

626
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 1: in new businesses, particularly in the media space, a family

627
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 1: office is more likely to give you time, have patients,

628
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 1: you know, not necessarily, not all of them are this way,

629
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 1: but some are. You're more likely to find versus working

630
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 1: with just a larger private equity firm. Who needs help.

631
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 1: I need my three year return, I need a what's

632
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 1: my exit ramp in five years? What's my exer versus

633
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 1: much right? And and sometimes it is political alignment, you know,

634
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 1: I'm involved with investment's been over ten years now, that's

635
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 1: kind of been flat. It's gone really nowhere, but it's

636
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 1: been a sustainable real estate development and and different, you know,

637
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 1: and it's come close, but it's it's been family offices

638
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 1: that were the primary primary investors. And it is a

639
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 1: it has been a long time horizon it's show wee.

640
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 2: It's an increasingly it's an increasingly popular source of investment

641
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 2: in capital for companies. For exactly why you say they

642
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 2: have a They have a very long time horizon and

643
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 2: they're very patient and they don't need a return immediately.

644
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 1: Well they may be. It's their way of like, hey

645
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 1: we got to fix local news. I get it. You

646
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: need ten years not three years, okay, versus you know

647
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 1: your Apollo. You know, look they got a It's almost

648
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:09,360
Speaker 1: like a factory of investments, right.

649
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's exactly right. Yeah, yeah, Pollow is a

650
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 2: good example. No, but it's an interesting group. I enjoy it.

651
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 2: I love one of the reasons I'm still in businesses.

652
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 2: I love hearing about somebody creating a new widget and

653
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 2: then building a company around it. I just find that

654
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 2: to be.

655
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 1: And you get that more often with family office investments

656
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 1: than with just generic private equity.

657
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 2: Right yeah, yeah. I mean private equity has been the

658
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 2: source for a lot of these smaller companies to be

659
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 2: taken out and purchased. I mean private equity is buying

660
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 2: into doctors groups and dentist groups and veterinarian groups, so

661
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 2: they're getting on a granular level with businesses, family offices,

662
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:53,720
Speaker 2: you see, not necessarily buying businesses. They'll buy into something

663
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 2: or they'll be the seed investor for it.

664
00:34:56,160 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 1: Let's talk about some of the I think as I

665
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 1: sort of been saying, I said, look, the pitchforks are

666
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:07,720
Speaker 1: getting sharpened, and I think there are some wealthy people

667
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 1: who are nervous about this, you know, and you see

668
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 1: the stories about people building bunkers and all of this stuff.

669
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 1: Do you have many investors that are worried about this

670
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 1: inequality coming for them.

671
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,919
Speaker 2: It's more of a conversation now than it has been ever.

672
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 2: I don't have anybody that is. I mean, if they're

673
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 2: building a bunker in Florida, it's because of hurricanes, not

674
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 2: because somebody's coming out now.

675
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 1: You can't build too much of a bunker in Florida.

676
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 1: You're going to hit the Atlantic Ocean, so good luck,

677
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 1: that's right, Or the golf or the golf.

678
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 2: But it's come up, you know. I mean, just just

679
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 2: go to Munich this past week, right, you know, the

680
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 2: AOC's discussion and others about you know, the change in

681
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 2: the world. And I thought that was interesting on a

682
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 2: number of levels. But it was an immediate example. And

683
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 2: you see it in other countries as well too. You

684
00:35:56,040 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 2: see it a lot more in Europe, and so it'll

685
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 2: be interesting to see what happens. But I haven't had

686
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 2: any experience where people feel threatened. But I do think

687
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 2: it's one of the reasons you have. And we saw

688
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 2: it in Covid Here in Florida, the increase in gun

689
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:14,879
Speaker 2: sales where people I mean, I live on the water

690
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 2: in this little town in bel Air, and I was

691
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 2: the only I probably should admit this on a publication,

692
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:25,760
Speaker 2: but on the media, but I was the only house

693
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:29,359
Speaker 2: on the street that wasn't armed. And I'm not talking

694
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:32,760
Speaker 2: about just armed. I'm talking about two three five seven guns.

695
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,320
Speaker 2: My wife and I she's a native of Pennsylvania and

696
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 2: she have brothers had gone hunting, and she said, well, yeah,

697
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 2: I know how to use the gun. I go, let's

698
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 2: go to the gun range because I got to figure

699
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 2: this out because if nothing else, I got to be

700
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 2: able to talk to my neighbors. So I think that

701
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 2: had something. There is some of that.

702
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 1: It's something about Florida. It's so funny. It's like, I

703
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 1: know a lot of people that are in your situation

704
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 1: who are like, boy, I don't want to be a

705
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 1: gun owner, but if everybody else can have a gun

706
00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 1: around me, I better maybe I.

707
00:36:58,360 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 2: Should feel it really stupid.

708
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:02,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're like, am I going to be that? And

709
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 1: and like what happened?

710
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:03,400
Speaker 2: You know?

711
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 1: But that is you know, I'm also one of those

712
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 1: who believes in statistics and and the numbers say you're

713
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 1: more likely to die of a gunshot wound if you

714
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 1: have a gun in the house than if you don't

715
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 1: have a gun in the house. Yeah, and yeah, I

716
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 1: believe that.

717
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I would have to be the guy says,

718
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 2: hold on just a minute. I'm just trying to figure

719
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 2: out how to load this thing. Give me just a second.

720
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 2: It wouldn't it wouldn't be pretty. So I thankfully I am

721
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 2: married to a very smart woman who knows how to

722
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 2: do that. And so we've agreed that if we're under attack,

723
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:34,280
Speaker 2: she'll defend us.

724
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,399
Speaker 1: Well, but basically she's going to survive. You'll be done

725
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,280
Speaker 1: in like the first couple of days of the.

726
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,959
Speaker 2: She's mentioned that, actually she's mentioned.

727
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:46,359
Speaker 1: That, Yeah, when when money will be worthless and we're

728
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:51,799
Speaker 1: trading bottle caps, you know, as our new currency. I joke,

729
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 1: except that is the kind of the plot line of

730
00:37:54,719 --> 00:38:02,359
Speaker 1: the TV show Fallout, which I I am. I look

731
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:05,439
Speaker 1: at the bad guys in Fallout, and all the bad

732
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 1: guys now are either corporate like titans, right. Our new

733
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 1: bad guys are corporate titans or private equity people right,

734
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 1: the uber and super rich. And you have people complaining

735
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 1: that private equity. You just talked about them investing in doctors'

736
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: offices and denis practices and you've got you know, buying

737
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 1: up houses to rental properties and stuff. Do folks in

738
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 1: private equity know that their brand is for shift these

739
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 1: days that you know, it's not that positive.

740
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 2: You know, it's it's it's a great question, and the

741
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 2: short answer is yes. And this has been the same

742
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 2: as people that made a lot of money on Wall

743
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 2: Street for many years. They weren't in the business to

744
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:49,959
Speaker 2: be like they were in the business to get rich.

745
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 2: And I think that's I think that still still is

746
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 2: out there. I mean they think and the rationalization is

747
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 2: their investments into companies create the capital for those companies

748
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 2: to do better, and so they rationalize that. And you know,

749
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 2: they defend themselves against carried interest in other things. But

750
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 2: you know, it's it's it's it's it's an issue. But

751
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 2: they don't. They don't really worry as much about what

752
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 2: they thought of as looking for the next best investment opportunity.

753
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 2: There's a ton of private equity cash out there looking

754
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 2: for places to invest in things. I mean, roofing companies

755
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 2: here in Florida are now being bought up, independent car washes,

756
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:29,240
Speaker 2: little car washes.

757
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 1: Private equity is rolling up roofers.

758
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 2: Roofers, and and and. Two years ago the big thing

759
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,839
Speaker 2: was car washes, So they look for places too.

760
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 1: I thought car washes were all money laundering fronts. I mean, well,

761
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,320
Speaker 1: semi facetious, but not facetious.

762
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 2: I think I think that was the the extension of laundromats, right,

763
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 2: I mean it was wherever, wherever cash was you. But

764
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 2: but you know, I'm I'm relatively I'm relatively positive about

765
00:39:57,080 --> 00:39:59,959
Speaker 2: the economy for for a bunch of reasons. The mayor

766
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 2: may not get talked about here. So the private equity

767
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 2: some degree provides some liquidity for folks that are looking

768
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 2: to sell their businesses that might not otherwise have been

769
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:11,359
Speaker 2: able to sell. Now the question is what do they

770
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 2: do with it afterwards? That's the big criticism. Right, they

771
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 2: take a business, they need to make it profitable. In

772
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 2: five years. They don't have that time horizon. We spoke

773
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 2: about a little while ago about family offices. So they

774
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 2: do things cutting services, firing people, doing all sorts of

775
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 2: things that are on well.

776
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 1: Nursing homes has been a classic case. I mean, look,

777
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 1: I get what's attractive to private equity when you do

778
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 1: roll ups, Like it makes sense to me about rufers.

779
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:38,440
Speaker 1: Car washes. Let make less sense to me, but rufers

780
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 1: makes sense to me because in Florida, you suddenly will

781
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 1: have a steady stream of government controlled cash that is

782
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 1: suddenly going to pay for bills or with a doctor's offices,

783
00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 1: it's Medicare with you know that there is a source

784
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 1: of constant revenue that comes in, which for private equity

785
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 1: is attractive. So I sort of get maybe what they're

786
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 1: thinking on the roofer front that if you've cornered the

787
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 1: market on roofers, you're going to have all this FEMA

788
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:12,919
Speaker 1: aid coming in and insurance, you know, money automatically coming

789
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 1: You're not you're not as reliant on individual customers as

790
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 1: you are and sort of, you know, collect a collection

791
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:26,560
Speaker 1: of customers that are forced to use your service because.

792
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 2: And then if they can find businesses that have automatic,

793
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 2: repeatable cash flow where somebody's put them on a you know,

794
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 2: on a on some kind of contract where they pay

795
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:36,319
Speaker 2: two hundred a month or one hundred and fifty a month,

796
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 2: whether it's a gym or you know, it's it's it's

797
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 2: the whole idea of the cell phone business. Right. They

798
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 2: like that repeatable, dependable cash flow that gives evaluation higher.

799
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 2: I have a good friend who owns a series of

800
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 2: coffee shops. The private equity. You are looking at these

801
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 2: coffee shops being able to to monetize them. Again, it's

802
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 2: it's interesting. It's entrepreneurism, and it's a it's I'm not

803
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 2: sure if it's his best or it's but it's entrepreneurs.

804
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 1: I think we're trying to figure that out, right. It's

805
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:07,719
Speaker 1: like it's you know, it's interesting as I've been trying

806
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:11,880
Speaker 1: to start a couple of small what in comparison with

807
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 1: the small businesses, you know, the structure is an impediment, right,

808
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,719
Speaker 1: thinking about well, how can I afford you know, I

809
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 1: could afford to pay salaries, but I can't afford the

810
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 1: benefits for salaries like that. And you know, you know,

811
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 1: a big entity can sort of can can weather that

812
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 1: a small startup. This feels like it's never been harder

813
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:38,799
Speaker 1: to start up a small business that's more than five employees.

814
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 1: That that the you know, it's one thing to have

815
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 1: like five employees or less, right, super small business basically

816
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 1: do it yourself. Then there's well no, no, no, you're you're

817
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:50,399
Speaker 1: you're going to have a payroll of somewhere between say

818
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 1: six and twenty. That feels like a nightmare now to

819
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 1: start a business like that, and and that kind of

820
00:42:58,120 --> 00:42:59,959
Speaker 1: feels like that shouldn't be the case.

821
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,319
Speaker 2: Payroll companies take off some of that challenge, right where

822
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 2: you can have somebody do all that for a couple

823
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:07,920
Speaker 2: of cents per employee. But you're right, it's not as

824
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 2: easy as just doing your thing you've got. I mean,

825
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 2: you talk to anybody that's in a restaurant business or

826
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 2: anybody that's a doctor. They take the weekends to fill

827
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 2: out insurance forms, right in the case of the restaurant business. There,

828
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 2: So it is, it's it's true entrepreneurship and small businesses.

829
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 2: And you know the stat right, but our country is

830
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 2: primarily small businesses, and so that's you know, it's it's

831
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 2: something that needs to grow and needs to continue. But

832
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:33,239
Speaker 2: it's hard they.

833
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:36,360
Speaker 1: Don't think we have the laws in place that encourage

834
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 1: small business startups or not, because I would argue we don't.

835
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 2: I agree with you. I agree with you. I think

836
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 2: it's one of the reasons that, you know, as much

837
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 2: as economists are crawling for interest rates to stay where

838
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,360
Speaker 2: they are because the fear of inflation coming back, I

839
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:53,400
Speaker 2: think interest rates are too high for that exact example.

840
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:56,279
Speaker 2: Folks are having a lot of trouble getting capital, and

841
00:43:56,320 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 2: if they can get it, the interest rate is ridiculously high.

842
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 2: So get about even buying a house.

843
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 1: Just let me throw I mean, I'll give you two

844
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:08,280
Speaker 1: items that I never thought i'd sound like a Bernie

845
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 1: Sanders on this, But if you took the burden of

846
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:17,359
Speaker 1: healthcare and childcare off of a business owner to as

847
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 1: a benefit, and the government was helping with that, I

848
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:23,840
Speaker 1: could probably start up this business a lot sooner.

849
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean, that's not Bernie Sanders, that's

850
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:30,839
Speaker 2: just become common sense. But you're right, that's where he would,

851
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 2: you know.

852
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 1: And that's the trouble. Those that want to fight it say, oh,

853
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 1: that's socialism. It's like, no, this is government making it

854
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:40,319
Speaker 1: easier to start a small business. The halfway pitching this.

855
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a halfway step in between, right, and that's

856
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:46,799
Speaker 2: making more access to capital and there are a lot

857
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 2: of proposals out there for that. And again that's sometimes

858
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:54,720
Speaker 2: private equity. That's sometimes banks. Bank regulations on the regional

859
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 2: bank side are ridiculous, really ridiculous.

860
00:44:57,360 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 1: And I'm not plain and I get it. It's like, look,

861
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 1: the regional the small and regional banks are paying a

862
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:06,840
Speaker 1: penalty for the sins of Layman Brothers.

863
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890
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Speaker 1: the best shape. My mother, single mother, now widow, myself

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Speaker 1: pay for college? And lo and behold, my dad had

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895
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:56,319
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896
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914
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915
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916
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917
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 1: life insurance is something you should really think about it,

918
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 1: especially if you've got a growing family. Why what's your

919
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:20,279
Speaker 1: sense in the public markets? Is there no longer as

920
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,279
Speaker 1: much confidence in the public markets. It seems like there

921
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 1: are more and more companies that don't want the hassle

922
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:30,959
Speaker 1: of shareholders, don't want the hassle of quarterly filings, things

923
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:36,000
Speaker 1: like that, and more and more are I would like

924
00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 1: to stay as private companies.

925
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:42,040
Speaker 2: There is a trend, there is a trend for exenative buildings,

926
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 2: less less reporting. You're seeing it even more with the

927
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:50,840
Speaker 2: AI companies right Athropic, Open Ai. They they they can

928
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 2: they can set an artificial valuation of the company. Nobody

929
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:57,839
Speaker 2: can really challenge that. You're seeing some of that. I'm

930
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 2: not necessarily sure that's a lack of confidence in the

931
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 2: public markets. I just don't think they need the capital

932
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:07,280
Speaker 2: because they're getting plenty of capital from private sources. Remember,

933
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:09,800
Speaker 2: one of the reasons a company goes public is access

934
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:13,120
Speaker 2: to unlimited capital. Frankly, right now in our society, we

935
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 2: have access to unlimited private capital. So I think that's

936
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 2: a lot of the driver, more so than just the

937
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 2: fact that and talking about confidence in the public markets

938
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 2: from a retail client perspective, I see it actually being

939
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:28,719
Speaker 2: the reverse. I see a lot of confidence. Robin Hood

940
00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:31,440
Speaker 2: is killing it because they're opening so many accounts for

941
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:33,480
Speaker 2: young investors who want to be part of the markets.

942
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:39,719
Speaker 2: So I think in that way it's pretty strong. You

943
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 2: see examples of it. You see examples of it in

944
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 2: the way that younger people are operating just right now.

945
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:48,360
Speaker 2: Obviously you see them doing these memestop type of things,

946
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:52,480
Speaker 2: which is bordering on a little sinsanity, But generally speaking

947
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:54,080
Speaker 2: they like to invest.

948
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:56,800
Speaker 1: Well do they like to invest?

949
00:49:56,840 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 2: Or?

950
00:49:56,920 --> 00:50:00,759
Speaker 1: Are they gambling? There's one of that. Yeah, I mean

951
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 1: the we're the prediction gambling houses because I just refuse

952
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 1: to call them markets. Yes, that it is a market

953
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 1: per se, but it is I think it's a rigged market.

954
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:16,279
Speaker 1: Can talk about it.

955
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 2: If they're buying an et F s and five hundred,

956
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:22,760
Speaker 2: that's necessarily right, right, Yeah, No, you're right.

957
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 1: But but I do think we've we're market you know,

958
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:29,360
Speaker 1: we're sort of we're making everything seem like a a

959
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:34,319
Speaker 1: what do you were? Commoditized? Monetizing everything right? You know,

960
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:37,839
Speaker 1: I assume we're you know, you're gonna be instead of

961
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 1: paying you know, how do you pay your quarterback? In

962
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 1: college football? You know, the fans may be asked to

963
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:47,319
Speaker 1: buy a share of I'm a big University of Miami guy.

964
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 1: You know we might you know, I'm gonna you know,

965
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:52,920
Speaker 1: can you buy ten shares of Carson Beck's salary? Like

966
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:54,799
Speaker 1: why do I have a feeling that? And then and

967
00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 1: then I might trade it on a market because ah,

968
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 1: he's doing well, somebody will buy it. It's worth more

969
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:02,319
Speaker 1: now because he might be a Heisman Trophy candidate. I mean,

970
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:05,440
Speaker 1: I guess that's what the prediction markets are are are

971
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 1: serving as in some form or another. I don't know

972
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:09,839
Speaker 1: if we need all that.

973
00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:15,439
Speaker 2: I never understood the portal concept in college sports, where

974
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:18,440
Speaker 2: somebody can go and to another school. I mean, can

975
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 2: you imagine being a coach. I think that's why Lou

976
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 2: Saban said, that's it. I'm done.

977
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:26,080
Speaker 1: You're showing your Lou Saban was a Miami guy. Nick Saban,

978
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:31,120
Speaker 1: not related to but thank you man who saved Miami football.

979
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:34,400
Speaker 1: So I always have a strong feeling, a warm feeling

980
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:34,879
Speaker 1: about him.

981
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 2: Listen that you you you should have been very proud.

982
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 2: I hope you were. In the National National Championship game.

983
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,759
Speaker 2: They played them tough. That was that was a great game.

984
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 2: So we were all we were all kind of cheering

985
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:46,720
Speaker 2: down here because we want.

986
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 1: To Badio's first time. Floridians seemed to like, yeah, let's

987
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 1: root for my Like Miami usually was the black hat team,

988
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 1: you know, to the rest of the day, had a

989
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:57,839
Speaker 1: lot of support. I could feel it. For the first time.

990
00:51:57,880 --> 00:51:58,840
Speaker 1: Miami wasn't hated.

991
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:01,759
Speaker 2: But you know, there is there is a sea change, Chuck,

992
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:05,279
Speaker 2: that's going on. Economically. I'm not sure I'm qualified to

993
00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 2: to say where it's going to end up, but I

994
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 2: see there's a casino like approach to certain markets. You

995
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:15,719
Speaker 2: didn't want to call them markets. There are markets technically,

996
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:17,239
Speaker 2: but it's it's a it's a.

997
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 1: Town has an advantage that you can't see, you know,

998
00:52:22,160 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 1: I don't you know, for instance, on slot machines, none

999
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 1: of us know exactly how that algorithm works in those

1000
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:32,640
Speaker 1: slot machines. Nobody you know, but somebody has the answer

1001
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 1: to that somebody knows when that slot machine one, you know,

1002
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:39,720
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty three, you know on the floor

1003
00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:43,240
Speaker 1: is going to pay out. You know, you know, somebody

1004
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:46,240
Speaker 1: knows the answer. And that's my concern about these prediction markets,

1005
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 1: is that somebody knows the answer and can gain it.

1006
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,280
Speaker 2: I think there's you know, what we're seeing the prediction

1007
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:54,319
Speaker 2: markets now, for example, I mean, we've had a couple

1008
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 2: of good years in the market, and the projection is

1009
00:52:57,120 --> 00:53:00,200
Speaker 2: for twenty twenty six to be good too, until it

1010
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:03,960
Speaker 2: becomes fairly clear, if it becomes fairly clear that there

1011
00:53:04,040 --> 00:53:06,800
Speaker 2: might be a wholesale change politically in the mid terms,

1012
00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:09,359
Speaker 2: and then you're seeing all of a sudden things look

1013
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 2: a little bit different. And so we're already trying to

1014
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 2: game that out, and that could be very interesting. If

1015
00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 2: the house flips, you'll see people, you know, draw back,

1016
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:22,040
Speaker 2: I think out of the market.

1017
00:53:22,719 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 1: You'll see, yeah, and then somebody is going to point

1018
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:26,879
Speaker 1: out the chart that shows how well the market does

1019
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:27,400
Speaker 1: with divide of.

1020
00:53:27,400 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 2: Government divided government. And in fact, if you go a

1021
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 2: little further back, is you know democrats, you know, because

1022
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:37,120
Speaker 2: they had this reputation for spending more money actually stock

1023
00:53:37,120 --> 00:53:38,360
Speaker 2: markets did pretty well under.

1024
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:42,440
Speaker 1: Prest democratic presidents. Right have all I get called a

1025
00:53:42,520 --> 00:53:45,839
Speaker 1: liar when I say that, it's just a fact. I mean,

1026
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:49,080
Speaker 1: it's just been how it's worked going back to it

1027
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 1: goes back to Reagan, right, Carter and Reagan, but it

1028
00:53:51,600 --> 00:53:53,839
Speaker 1: goes back in politically.

1029
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:57,759
Speaker 2: Though. I think that you asked this earlier in the discussion,

1030
00:53:57,840 --> 00:53:59,399
Speaker 2: but I think you're going to see more and more

1031
00:53:59,440 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 2: of an impact politically on economic situations going forward. And

1032
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:06,320
Speaker 2: I think it's a byproduct of what's happened over the

1033
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 2: last few years, particularly with President Trump. I think regardless

1034
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:13,319
Speaker 2: of which way it goes, you're going to have a

1035
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:14,720
Speaker 2: seesaw type of effect.

1036
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:19,399
Speaker 1: Well, I don't expect you to say this, but I'm

1037
00:54:19,400 --> 00:54:20,759
Speaker 1: going to say this, and I'm going to ask you

1038
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 1: whether this is having some impact the more transactional that

1039
00:54:24,520 --> 00:54:27,719
Speaker 1: Trump presents himself as. So you know, I talked about

1040
00:54:27,719 --> 00:54:30,399
Speaker 1: the crypto industry who just basically got in bed with him,

1041
00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 1: and AI decided to get in bed, like, look, we

1042
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:35,480
Speaker 1: can get we can get more of what we want

1043
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 1: out of here. Let's just make this bet in the

1044
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 1: moment and we'll deal with We'll deal with when the

1045
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 1: other party gets power. We'll deal with them when we

1046
00:54:43,239 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 1: when they get power, and we'll figure it out. And

1047
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,759
Speaker 1: the concern I have is this is like step one

1048
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:55,719
Speaker 1: to kleptocracy. And let me just ask you this, when

1049
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 1: do you tell a client be careful investing in country

1050
00:54:58,719 --> 00:55:01,480
Speaker 1: X because the government is too involved in the economy.

1051
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:05,840
Speaker 2: I haven't had that conversation yet, but I do a

1052
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:10,440
Speaker 2: fair amount of interviews Great Britain and of course Farage

1053
00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:13,239
Speaker 2: coming in. I mean, there's an example of something that

1054
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 2: you have to keep an eye on, and I think

1055
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:17,120
Speaker 2: about coming up recently.

1056
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 1: You know, Turkey is a place that is a on

1057
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 1: one hand, is an interesting, vibrant economy I mean, and

1058
00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:27,120
Speaker 1: maybe an investable place. On the other hand, I wouldn't

1059
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:27,960
Speaker 1: trust that government.

1060
00:55:28,600 --> 00:55:31,319
Speaker 2: But Turkey is not a conversation that comes up very

1061
00:55:31,360 --> 00:55:34,200
Speaker 2: regularly for investing. Now Brazil, that's something we hear a

1062
00:55:34,200 --> 00:55:36,680
Speaker 2: lot about. And Brazil was on fire last year, so

1063
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:39,719
Speaker 2: it did very well. So yeah, I mean, you have

1064
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:42,239
Speaker 2: to watch it. But I think I think, you know,

1065
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:45,680
Speaker 2: what worries me about some of the indications that the

1066
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 2: FED isn't as independent as we would like. So what

1067
00:55:49,280 --> 00:55:52,520
Speaker 2: worries me about more than the stock market. What worries

1068
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:55,240
Speaker 2: me is the bond market, and the bond market picks

1069
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:58,719
Speaker 2: up these these inconsistencies that are going on economically, and

1070
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:00,920
Speaker 2: I think we're going to see more potential for that.

1071
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:04,800
Speaker 2: Goldman Sacks is predicting middle single digit returns and equity

1072
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:08,200
Speaker 2: markets for the next couple of years, which surprised a

1073
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:10,399
Speaker 2: lot of us, and they continue to double down on that.

1074
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:15,239
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that's true. I see some potential for

1075
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 2: Do you.

1076
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:17,640
Speaker 1: Think they're saying that they just don't have confidence in

1077
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:19,040
Speaker 1: the central bank.

1078
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:24,120
Speaker 2: That's the dollar, the central bank. I think the uncertainty,

1079
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:27,280
Speaker 2: not knowing about terrorists. I think the Supreme Court, frankly

1080
00:56:27,360 --> 00:56:29,880
Speaker 2: is going to go against the terrorists. But there's no

1081
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:32,480
Speaker 2: mechanism that we have to be able to refund one

1082
00:56:32,520 --> 00:56:34,879
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty five billion dollars, which is roughly what's

1083
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 2: been collected. So I think they're going to split the

1084
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 2: baby and say, look, you don't have to give back

1085
00:56:39,160 --> 00:56:40,719
Speaker 2: the tariffs that you got, but you can't do it

1086
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:43,560
Speaker 2: going forward. So administration is going to be forced to

1087
00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:47,239
Speaker 2: find another avenue for that. They'll probably find something. But

1088
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:49,880
Speaker 2: the point is this uncertainty and not knowing what's going

1089
00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:53,000
Speaker 2: to happen. I think Goldman's is predicting that that's going

1090
00:56:53,080 --> 00:56:57,120
Speaker 2: to impact company's earnings, it's going to impact their businesses,

1091
00:56:57,360 --> 00:57:00,799
Speaker 2: and we've seen some of that already. So it's the

1092
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:04,200
Speaker 2: next couple of years I actually, I actually think are

1093
00:57:04,239 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 2: going to be more interesting from a volatility standpoint.

1094
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:12,160
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting. I why why do you because well

1095
00:57:13,040 --> 00:57:15,160
Speaker 1: you said two different things here, and that's why I

1096
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 1: want to I want to clarify as we as we

1097
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 1: land this play. You seem to be pretty a little

1098
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 1: more bullish on this year economically than most people. So

1099
00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 1: let's unpack that.

1100
00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:30,200
Speaker 2: Why companies' earnings are excellent and they continue to revise

1101
00:57:30,240 --> 00:57:34,680
Speaker 2: them upwards. They're very lean and they've stayed lean after COVID.

1102
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:38,520
Speaker 2: That's why you don't see unemployment changing all that dramatically today.

1103
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 2: Michael Barr in his speech, one of the FED governors

1104
00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 2: actually talked about the disruption short term major disruption the

1105
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:49,160
Speaker 2: labor markets that AI is going to produce. So that's

1106
00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:51,280
Speaker 2: the thing that I worry about coming down the road.

1107
00:57:51,360 --> 00:57:53,240
Speaker 2: But for the next and we used to look at

1108
00:57:53,240 --> 00:57:55,400
Speaker 2: things three to five years. Now we're looking at things

1109
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:58,200
Speaker 2: as three to six months. In the three to six

1110
00:57:58,240 --> 00:58:02,840
Speaker 2: months period. I'm pretty positive after those times, it's we're

1111
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:03,520
Speaker 2: not predicting.

1112
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:08,360
Speaker 1: How much do you look at the what happened to

1113
00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:14,920
Speaker 1: the railroads in the eighteen seventies and eighties and certainly

1114
00:58:14,920 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 1: what happened in the UK, And how much do you

1115
00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:20,520
Speaker 1: think that AI investors ought to be thinking about that?

1116
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:24,160
Speaker 2: Perhaps not AI investors as much as software companies. I

1117
00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:27,480
Speaker 2: think it's very possible that software companies are some of

1118
00:58:27,520 --> 00:58:30,200
Speaker 2: the casualties to that where AI can replace them. And

1119
00:58:30,320 --> 00:58:32,280
Speaker 2: it takes three to six months to write code by

1120
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:34,760
Speaker 2: somebody that's really good, AI might do it in twelve minutes,

1121
00:58:35,240 --> 00:58:38,480
Speaker 2: so that's going to be a challenge for some software companies.

1122
00:58:38,480 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 1: I also hear you there, but I kind of feel

1123
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:43,800
Speaker 1: like I kind of feel like this was an overreaction

1124
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:47,880
Speaker 1: about software companies because you still want expertise, Like I

1125
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:53,840
Speaker 1: want to train musician to oversee AI trying to compose music.

1126
00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:57,160
Speaker 1: I don't want just some random schmengy doing it right.

1127
00:58:57,280 --> 00:59:04,640
Speaker 1: So I still want a software you know, one time

1128
00:59:04,800 --> 00:59:06,560
Speaker 1: inventor and codeer overseeing this.

1129
00:59:07,600 --> 00:59:09,840
Speaker 2: I agree, and I think it was an overreaction. They

1130
00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:11,800
Speaker 2: threw the baby out with the bathwater. You're not going

1131
00:59:11,840 --> 00:59:14,280
Speaker 2: to replace a crowd strike or a snowflake. Those are

1132
00:59:14,440 --> 00:59:17,960
Speaker 2: essential software companies that are doing essential work right. But

1133
00:59:18,040 --> 00:59:20,880
Speaker 2: I think as that refines over the next year to three,

1134
00:59:21,200 --> 00:59:23,640
Speaker 2: you're going to see some of them be casualties for this.

1135
00:59:23,760 --> 00:59:26,160
Speaker 2: And I can't name names in that, and I can't

1136
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:28,840
Speaker 2: even think that far ahead, but I'm sure that that's

1137
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:31,560
Speaker 2: going to be an occurrence. But keep in mind, this

1138
00:59:31,680 --> 00:59:35,480
Speaker 2: AI is only in the second inning. They're just fumbling around.

1139
00:59:35,520 --> 00:59:37,040
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know how many times you hitch

1140
00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 2: at GBT, but it's kind of amazing, whether it's that

1141
00:59:40,560 --> 00:59:43,440
Speaker 2: or Gemini, how many questions you get answered right. And

1142
00:59:43,480 --> 00:59:46,720
Speaker 2: this is before even keep in mind a gentic SERI

1143
00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:49,959
Speaker 2: is coming. That's probably by the end of the year

1144
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:53,640
Speaker 2: that people there's roughly two million iPhones out there and

1145
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:57,720
Speaker 2: use will have a system on their phone which will

1146
00:59:57,840 --> 01:00:00,040
Speaker 2: allow them to take money from say Bank of a

1147
01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:02,400
Speaker 2: America and send it to Schwab or something like this,

1148
01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:06,720
Speaker 2: just in a voice control. I mean, this what Apple

1149
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:10,800
Speaker 2: has taken a long time to get into this AI space.

1150
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:14,080
Speaker 2: They there's a couple of reasons for it, but the

1151
01:00:14,120 --> 01:00:17,360
Speaker 2: bottom line is when they deliver this product through this

1152
01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:20,520
Speaker 2: mechanism called SIRI. It's going to be a game changer,

1153
01:00:20,720 --> 01:00:22,920
Speaker 2: and that'll only be the third or fourth inning. Now

1154
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:26,600
Speaker 2: we're just in the second, So it's you know, there's

1155
01:00:26,640 --> 01:00:30,720
Speaker 2: some plus spots to this economy, I really think, but

1156
01:00:31,080 --> 01:00:33,160
Speaker 2: there's also going to be some major changes. I think

1157
01:00:33,160 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 2: one of the reasons I enjoy the business is those

1158
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:38,120
Speaker 2: changes both scare me and excite me.

1159
01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:42,000
Speaker 1: Yeah no, I mean, you know, yes, I mean, look,

1160
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:45,240
Speaker 1: I think fear of AI job displacement is going to

1161
01:00:45,280 --> 01:00:49,480
Speaker 1: be a driver of a lot of decision making, even

1162
01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:51,840
Speaker 1: if we don't have evidence of it right away.

1163
01:00:52,560 --> 01:00:56,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. And I think I think the

1164
01:00:56,760 --> 01:01:00,520
Speaker 2: politics will become increasingly more important because I think I

1165
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:03,840
Speaker 2: think that the politicians are going to have to understand

1166
01:01:03,880 --> 01:01:07,120
Speaker 2: that the populism side of what they're doing might get

1167
01:01:07,200 --> 01:01:10,520
Speaker 2: him some votes, but it could hurt him in other ways.

1168
01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 2: And I think that's just something that's now being refined.

1169
01:01:13,800 --> 01:01:16,640
Speaker 2: I I have a friend who's running for governor down here,

1170
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:20,400
Speaker 2: and he's constantly navigating that minefield. He was a Republican.

1171
01:01:20,960 --> 01:01:25,680
Speaker 2: He's now a Democrat because the Republicans hated it because yeah, yeah,

1172
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:29,520
Speaker 2: because he didn't like Trump and and it's it's it's interesting.

1173
01:01:29,560 --> 01:01:32,560
Speaker 2: I mean, you look at Svanberger, right, she she you know,

1174
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:35,240
Speaker 2: she she ran one way. She ran as a moderate,

1175
01:01:36,440 --> 01:01:39,320
Speaker 2: a centrist. I still think she is, for the most

1176
01:01:39,320 --> 01:01:40,280
Speaker 2: part right.

1177
01:01:40,320 --> 01:01:42,880
Speaker 1: But when you have one party control, all of a sudden,

1178
01:01:42,880 --> 01:01:46,280
Speaker 1: your legislature can define you. I mean, I'm pretty close

1179
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:49,360
Speaker 1: with Pat McCrory, the former Republican governor of North Carolina,

1180
01:01:49,680 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 1: and you know he will tell you because his legislature was,

1181
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:55,680
Speaker 1: you know, further to the right than Donald Trump was

1182
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 1: at times, and they could override his vetos, so he

1183
01:01:59,600 --> 01:02:03,040
Speaker 1: ended up. You agree to some things at a party

1184
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:06,880
Speaker 1: politics that can define you in a way that becomes

1185
01:02:06,880 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 1: impossible to get yourself out of. It's a warning. I

1186
01:02:09,720 --> 01:02:12,800
Speaker 1: worried about this for Spamburger, that she was going to

1187
01:02:13,760 --> 01:02:16,040
Speaker 1: have to immediately start as a partisan because of this

1188
01:02:16,160 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 1: redistricting mess, right, and that it could define her early days.

1189
01:02:20,400 --> 01:02:24,680
Speaker 1: And you know, your first impressions, your first impression, and

1190
01:02:24,760 --> 01:02:27,440
Speaker 1: it has made a second one. Yeah, yeah, no, that's right,

1191
01:02:27,560 --> 01:02:29,880
Speaker 1: that's right. I mean, it's it's very interesting you mentioned

1192
01:02:29,880 --> 01:02:32,080
Speaker 1: North Carolina. I said to my wife the other day,

1193
01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:35,080
Speaker 1: I can't remember Tom tillis sounding so smart. The last

1194
01:02:35,160 --> 01:02:38,360
Speaker 1: couple of interviews i've heard him do. It's like, my goodness,

1195
01:02:38,520 --> 01:02:41,800
Speaker 1: where's this guy Chen? Well, he's not going to worry about,

1196
01:02:41,920 --> 01:02:45,520
Speaker 1: you know, Trump's endorsement. Like, I mean, it's quite you know,

1197
01:02:45,560 --> 01:02:50,560
Speaker 1: we always knew politicians spun, but they're spinning and there's

1198
01:02:50,720 --> 01:02:54,320
Speaker 1: like total like capitulation. And I think what we're learning

1199
01:02:54,320 --> 01:02:57,960
Speaker 1: from these retiring Republicans who the minute they retire they

1200
01:02:58,120 --> 01:02:59,320
Speaker 1: really tell you what's going on.

1201
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:04,040
Speaker 2: They get courage. Yeah, no, no, it's entire it's very understanding.

1202
01:03:04,040 --> 01:03:06,560
Speaker 2: But the Democrats don't have a clear run. You know,

1203
01:03:06,600 --> 01:03:08,880
Speaker 2: they have a unique ability to snatch the feet from

1204
01:03:08,920 --> 01:03:11,000
Speaker 2: the jobs of victory. And I'm afraid that you can

1205
01:03:11,040 --> 01:03:12,920
Speaker 2: see that a little bit now. I see that. You know,

1206
01:03:12,920 --> 01:03:17,600
Speaker 2: I'm a big fan of these young politicians Momdami and AOC.

1207
01:03:17,920 --> 01:03:20,000
Speaker 2: I don't think they can run the country. I think

1208
01:03:20,040 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 2: that showed just with AOC's interviews of Munich. But the

1209
01:03:22,920 --> 01:03:26,120
Speaker 2: fact of the matter is they're refreshing. If you organize

1210
01:03:26,160 --> 01:03:28,720
Speaker 2: a lot of kids to come to the voters in

1211
01:03:28,760 --> 01:03:30,720
Speaker 2: a big city, I think that works. I'm not sure

1212
01:03:30,760 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 2: that works in a national election, so it'll be interesting,

1213
01:03:34,600 --> 01:03:37,080
Speaker 2: but I watch it more and more now, particularly on

1214
01:03:37,520 --> 01:03:40,600
Speaker 2: the centrist side, because I could make a pretty strong

1215
01:03:40,640 --> 01:03:43,160
Speaker 2: case the centrist policies are going to be better financially

1216
01:03:43,200 --> 01:03:44,919
Speaker 2: than these draconian one way or the other.

1217
01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:49,120
Speaker 1: Well, I want to rebrand centrism because you know, get it.

1218
01:03:49,200 --> 01:03:51,280
Speaker 1: I always joke, I get accused of being a centrist,

1219
01:03:51,400 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 1: and what I always say is, nope, I'm an incrementalist.

1220
01:03:54,800 --> 01:03:58,360
Speaker 1: There are good left wing ideas and good right wing ideas.

1221
01:03:58,880 --> 01:04:02,320
Speaker 1: I like that, and you gotta start a tiny The

1222
01:04:02,360 --> 01:04:04,480
Speaker 1: only way to bring the country along on anything is

1223
01:04:04,520 --> 01:04:07,080
Speaker 1: you got to go a small step. When you make

1224
01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:10,840
Speaker 1: a big leap, that's when the boomerang comes. It always does.

1225
01:04:10,880 --> 01:04:13,480
Speaker 1: You can snap back and sometimes go backwards because you

1226
01:04:13,560 --> 01:04:16,080
Speaker 1: took too big of a leap and the SmackDown is coming.

1227
01:04:16,560 --> 01:04:19,440
Speaker 1: You know, we never like I mean that, you know,

1228
01:04:19,760 --> 01:04:23,600
Speaker 1: we don't like too much change. It's so funny, the

1229
01:04:24,040 --> 01:04:28,000
Speaker 1: thing that the big conundrum. And you see it because

1230
01:04:28,080 --> 01:04:30,600
Speaker 1: when when people's own pot money, he's on the line,

1231
01:04:30,960 --> 01:04:35,400
Speaker 1: they stop being disruptors and change agents, right, And we're

1232
01:04:35,480 --> 01:04:38,400
Speaker 1: that way as an electorate. We want change and the

1233
01:04:38,440 --> 01:04:40,400
Speaker 1: minute somebody implements it, we hate it.

1234
01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:43,760
Speaker 2: You're seeing that in the immigration issues, right now in

1235
01:04:43,800 --> 01:04:45,640
Speaker 2: the polling. That's right, that's right, that's right.

1236
01:04:47,280 --> 01:04:50,880
Speaker 1: Well, Bob, let me ask you this. You sound like

1237
01:04:50,880 --> 01:04:54,080
Speaker 1: you're still bullish on basic old investing in the stock market.

1238
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:57,640
Speaker 1: You would still tell somebody today, whatever you can sock away,

1239
01:04:57,800 --> 01:05:01,240
Speaker 1: still do it, because you're going to you know, if

1240
01:05:01,280 --> 01:05:04,120
Speaker 1: you just sit there, don't look at it, and you know,

1241
01:05:04,240 --> 01:05:06,400
Speaker 1: just shoot, you just bought the S and P five

1242
01:05:06,480 --> 01:05:09,440
Speaker 1: hundred sort of one of those funds. You're going to

1243
01:05:09,480 --> 01:05:13,000
Speaker 1: make ten percent on average over a So that's.

1244
01:05:12,520 --> 01:05:14,360
Speaker 2: Good for the thirty year old and maybe even the

1245
01:05:14,400 --> 01:05:16,320
Speaker 2: thirty five or forty year old, but I wouldn't have

1246
01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:19,120
Speaker 2: that for the sixty year old, and beyond right, i'd

1247
01:05:19,160 --> 01:05:21,280
Speaker 2: be and it could be a little lower in age.

1248
01:05:21,360 --> 01:05:21,520
Speaker 1: Right.

1249
01:05:21,720 --> 01:05:24,200
Speaker 2: It really depends on risk tolerance. That's a that's a

1250
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:26,720
Speaker 2: discussion that really needs to be had with clients. Now,

1251
01:05:27,000 --> 01:05:29,640
Speaker 2: be prepared for a thirty percent drop. I don't know

1252
01:05:29,680 --> 01:05:31,240
Speaker 2: if it's going to happen. I don't know when it's

1253
01:05:31,280 --> 01:05:33,720
Speaker 2: going to happen. But can you afford that? So the

1254
01:05:33,800 --> 01:05:36,120
Speaker 2: answer to that, if they say no, is then look,

1255
01:05:36,200 --> 01:05:39,120
Speaker 2: you don't belong in a ninety percent equities portfolio. You

1256
01:05:39,200 --> 01:05:41,960
Speaker 2: belong in a fifty to fifty or sixty forty and

1257
01:05:42,000 --> 01:05:43,840
Speaker 2: you need enough cash to go through a couple of

1258
01:05:43,920 --> 01:05:46,200
Speaker 2: years of retirement, so keep it in the bank. I

1259
01:05:46,240 --> 01:05:48,520
Speaker 2: think that allocation side and one of the reasons we

1260
01:05:48,520 --> 01:05:51,160
Speaker 2: don't worry about AI kicking us out of business, just

1261
01:05:51,520 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 2: trying to increase our productivity is that's a discussion you

1262
01:05:54,680 --> 01:05:56,800
Speaker 2: really have to have with a client. You can't you

1263
01:05:56,880 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 2: can't put that on chat GBT. That's really a a

1264
01:06:00,320 --> 01:06:01,120
Speaker 2: field discussion.

1265
01:06:01,680 --> 01:06:04,000
Speaker 1: Well, I mean it's like just like healthcare. I mean,

1266
01:06:04,600 --> 01:06:06,600
Speaker 1: you may get a you may you may have more

1267
01:06:07,320 --> 01:06:13,440
Speaker 1: data about about the healthcare space thanks to chat GBT,

1268
01:06:13,600 --> 01:06:16,440
Speaker 1: but you still want a doctor, a curator you trust

1269
01:06:16,520 --> 01:06:19,640
Speaker 1: to explain why chat came up with that come.

1270
01:06:19,640 --> 01:06:21,560
Speaker 2: Back to go back and forth. You know, I have

1271
01:06:21,600 --> 01:06:23,880
Speaker 2: a bunch of friends that are doctors in my area.

1272
01:06:23,880 --> 01:06:25,720
Speaker 2: And one of the things I don't know if you

1273
01:06:25,760 --> 01:06:28,240
Speaker 2: remember this or even if you were in in in

1274
01:06:28,440 --> 01:06:30,200
Speaker 2: the area you live at the time, but there was

1275
01:06:30,240 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 2: a men's clothing store called SIMS.

1276
01:06:32,520 --> 01:06:32,919
Speaker 1: Oh yeah.

1277
01:06:33,160 --> 01:06:36,080
Speaker 2: The educated consumer is our customer is our best customer.

1278
01:06:36,320 --> 01:06:38,440
Speaker 2: And I think that applies a friend of mine, as

1279
01:06:38,440 --> 01:06:41,040
Speaker 2: a cardiologist, you said to me that the best thing

1280
01:06:41,120 --> 01:06:42,840
Speaker 2: is when a client comes in and has done some

1281
01:06:42,880 --> 01:06:45,240
Speaker 2: research on the drugs and the different procedures that I

1282
01:06:45,280 --> 01:06:47,240
Speaker 2: want to talk to them about, you know, as long

1283
01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:49,200
Speaker 2: as they're not trying to play doctor and tell me

1284
01:06:49,240 --> 01:06:51,600
Speaker 2: they don't like this because I like it better. The

1285
01:06:51,640 --> 01:06:54,960
Speaker 2: fact is they have a better relationship, a better patient relationship.

1286
01:06:55,960 --> 01:06:57,560
Speaker 2: We have it, by the way, with our clients.

1287
01:06:57,720 --> 01:06:59,640
Speaker 1: When you're on a you don't mind when a client

1288
01:06:59,680 --> 01:07:02,720
Speaker 1: comes in and says, hey, you know, I was talking

1289
01:07:02,800 --> 01:07:05,160
Speaker 1: with my son's advisor and he says this, this and this.

1290
01:07:06,920 --> 01:07:09,880
Speaker 2: You know, for years and we were early to this game, right,

1291
01:07:10,000 --> 01:07:12,360
Speaker 2: is the idea that an index fund, as opposed to

1292
01:07:12,360 --> 01:07:16,480
Speaker 2: an actively managed portfolio is a better, better approach to take.

1293
01:07:16,800 --> 01:07:19,560
Speaker 2: And you know, before chat GBT or any of that,

1294
01:07:19,600 --> 01:07:22,400
Speaker 2: people were reading that Jason's Wyatt and Wall Street journals.

1295
01:07:22,440 --> 01:07:24,360
Speaker 2: An old friend of mine wrote a lot of those

1296
01:07:24,400 --> 01:07:27,400
Speaker 2: columns about that type of thing, and it was a

1297
01:07:27,400 --> 01:07:30,720
Speaker 2: better discussion because the client was informed. Now, had you

1298
01:07:30,760 --> 01:07:33,360
Speaker 2: had clients that were just stuck on a certain area

1299
01:07:33,360 --> 01:07:35,800
Speaker 2: and you couldn't change their mind, but I'd rather have

1300
01:07:35,920 --> 01:07:37,960
Speaker 2: that than someone that wasn't knowledgeable at all.

1301
01:07:38,600 --> 01:07:40,400
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get you out of here on this when

1302
01:07:40,440 --> 01:07:42,760
Speaker 1: it comes to what you do for a living, not

1303
01:07:42,840 --> 01:07:45,880
Speaker 1: your own personal concerns or politics, but what you do

1304
01:07:46,000 --> 01:07:50,200
Speaker 1: for a living. What's one question you want every presidential

1305
01:07:50,240 --> 01:07:52,960
Speaker 1: candidate to answer to it so that you understand whether

1306
01:07:53,000 --> 01:07:56,080
Speaker 1: they understand our economy and markets.

1307
01:07:57,240 --> 01:07:59,640
Speaker 2: I think it's been very obvious over the last couple

1308
01:07:59,680 --> 01:08:01,720
Speaker 2: of months, and it continues to be Is the Federal

1309
01:08:01,760 --> 01:08:05,800
Speaker 2: Reserve an independent organization? I think we're the envy of

1310
01:08:05,840 --> 01:08:08,760
Speaker 2: the markets around the world for two reasons. Our rule

1311
01:08:08,800 --> 01:08:11,400
Speaker 2: of law on the independence of our FED. That's why

1312
01:08:11,440 --> 01:08:13,360
Speaker 2: the dollar has been so strong. That's why it's the

1313
01:08:13,440 --> 01:08:16,719
Speaker 2: world safe haven, the currency of choice. I think that's

1314
01:08:16,760 --> 01:08:19,599
Speaker 2: an area that I think is as important as anything,

1315
01:08:19,600 --> 01:08:21,200
Speaker 2: and we're seeing it play out in real time.

1316
01:08:21,600 --> 01:08:24,000
Speaker 1: Well, you know, that might be one of the few

1317
01:08:24,360 --> 01:08:27,880
Speaker 1: issues that becomes a regularly asked question of these candidates.

1318
01:08:28,080 --> 01:08:29,840
Speaker 1: Do you believe in you know that the FED should

1319
01:08:29,840 --> 01:08:30,360
Speaker 1: be independent?

1320
01:08:31,000 --> 01:08:32,920
Speaker 2: And then the problem, of course is when they're asked

1321
01:08:32,960 --> 01:08:35,559
Speaker 2: those questions, they say one thing and do something else. Right,

1322
01:08:35,640 --> 01:08:38,840
Speaker 2: So you know that that's an issue. But yeah, no,

1323
01:08:38,960 --> 01:08:41,320
Speaker 2: I agree with you. I think I think it's important.

1324
01:08:42,080 --> 01:08:44,080
Speaker 2: I would also if I went into the political side

1325
01:08:44,080 --> 01:08:46,960
Speaker 2: a little bit. I worry about the Supreme Court, but

1326
01:08:47,000 --> 01:08:49,920
Speaker 2: I really think that FED independence is a big issue.

1327
01:08:49,920 --> 01:08:50,080
Speaker 1: You know.

1328
01:08:50,120 --> 01:08:52,599
Speaker 2: The bond market is something that I watch even more

1329
01:08:52,640 --> 01:08:55,280
Speaker 2: closely in the stock market. I'll leave you with a

1330
01:08:55,400 --> 01:08:58,439
Speaker 2: James Carvill quote which I always love. You probably heard it.

1331
01:08:58,439 --> 01:09:01,360
Speaker 2: He said once. If I believe in reincarnation, I don't

1332
01:09:01,360 --> 01:09:03,280
Speaker 2: want to come back as president or the Pope or

1333
01:09:03,280 --> 01:09:05,599
Speaker 2: even a four hundred baseball hitter. I'd rather come back

1334
01:09:05,600 --> 01:09:07,719
Speaker 2: as The bond market scare the hell out of everybody,

1335
01:09:07,880 --> 01:09:10,040
Speaker 2: and I think if you're in the financial business, you

1336
01:09:10,200 --> 01:09:13,400
Speaker 2: understand what that means. The bond market is the liquidity

1337
01:09:13,479 --> 01:09:16,160
Speaker 2: for all businesses, both in the United States and abroad.

1338
01:09:16,520 --> 01:09:20,480
Speaker 2: And when the bond market starts to seize up, that's problems,

1339
01:09:20,520 --> 01:09:23,320
Speaker 2: and that will happen if there's issues with the Federal Reserve.

1340
01:09:23,479 --> 01:09:26,120
Speaker 2: So I'm keeping my fingers crossed that that isn't a

1341
01:09:26,160 --> 01:09:27,439
Speaker 2: rubicount we need to cross.

1342
01:09:27,840 --> 01:09:31,960
Speaker 1: Well, Paul, that's a great conversation. Appreciate the time, the wisdom,

1343
01:09:32,040 --> 01:09:33,720
Speaker 1: the you know, it's good to get to know you.

1344
01:09:33,840 --> 01:09:35,800
Speaker 2: I'll forget the chance to do this again. So I'm

1345
01:09:36,080 --> 01:09:37,400
Speaker 2: this has been a pleasure