Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: A short time ago, the Federal Reserve Bank of New
Speaker 2: York President John Williams said, keeping inflation expectations anchored near
Speaker 2: policymakers target forms the bedrock of central bank policy. Warm
Speaker 2: Welcome to all of our TV viewers, but also to
Speaker 2: our radio listeners. We're here in Rankivik, and I'm delighted
Speaker 2: to be joined by President Williams. Thank you for joining us.
Speaker 2: There's a dual mandate the Fed. We all heard also
Speaker 2: J Powell on the FMC not cutting rates. You're putting
Speaker 2: firmly the focus on inflation.
Speaker 3: Why now, Well, first.
Speaker 1: Of all, we do have a dual mandate of maximum
Speaker 1: employment and price stability, and these are both very important.
Speaker 1: But one thing we've learned from history is that having
Speaker 1: well anchored inflation expectations, having the public have confidence that,
Speaker 1: regardless of whatever is happening today, that inflation will come
Speaker 1: back to two percent and that will make sure that
Speaker 1: happens is very important for price stability and also.
Speaker 3: For economic stability.
Speaker 1: It helps actually there, it actually helps reinforce our ability
Speaker 1: to achieve both of our goals. And you know, given
Speaker 1: to the uncertainty, given the experience of the past five years.
Speaker 1: You know, it's been very important to keep inflation expectations anchored.
Speaker 1: That has been successful. It's really important to keep them
Speaker 1: that way in the future.
Speaker 2: Given the uncertainty on terifs and trades, how difficult is
Speaker 2: it to even have a projection for inflation in the future.
Speaker 1: Well, right now there's a lot of uncertainty about what's happening.
Speaker 3: With trade policy or other policies.
Speaker 1: So for me, what's important is think through a lot
Speaker 1: of different scenarios. Right now, the economy is in a
Speaker 1: really good place in the US, unemployments and four point
Speaker 1: two percent, inflation's two point three percent. The other indicators
Speaker 1: show we're still pray solid economy. So right now we
Speaker 1: have time. You know, we're in a good place. Now,
Speaker 1: policy is in a good place. Let's collect more data
Speaker 1: information about what's happening with trade policy, what's its likely
Speaker 1: effects on the economy, And then once we have that
Speaker 1: more information, we can kind of think of do we
Speaker 1: you know, what's that mean for the achievement of our
Speaker 1: goals in our policy.
Speaker 2: I know you don't like when people say, look, the
Speaker 2: FED seems unwilling actually because of inflation to act preemptively
Speaker 2: to bolster the labor market. So how do you explain
Speaker 2: this contrasting in the future.
Speaker 1: Well, right now, again the labor market has proven to
Speaker 1: be resilient. It's strong even through the data through April.
Speaker 1: So what we you know, what we want to do
Speaker 1: is really get an idea of what the tariffs are
Speaker 1: going to be. Other policy decisions are run these through
Speaker 1: different scenarios, through our models and our analysis, listen to
Speaker 1: what business and other leaders are telling us what they're
Speaker 1: actually doing in response to these policies, and then come
Speaker 1: to a view of what's happening to employment, inflation, and
Speaker 1: importantly the risks to that outlook. So you know, once
Speaker 1: we have that better information, we can assess the situation
Speaker 1: and make decisions. So it's it's about getting the information
Speaker 1: so we understand the direction of travel for the economy
Speaker 1: and make the best decision possible. We don't but right now,
Speaker 1: you know, things are still quite in a good place.
Speaker 2: If you know there's a sharp downturn actually an unemployment,
Speaker 2: but you're still worried about inflation, does it mean that
Speaker 2: fin cuts will have to be quite aggressive quite quickly?
Speaker 1: You know, it's really hard to speculate and what would
Speaker 1: you do if this situation happened In that situation, I mean,
Speaker 1: where we're in a situation which we could be in
Speaker 1: where inflation is higher and unemployment is higher. We need
Speaker 1: to balance the achievement of both of those goals. We
Speaker 1: need to take actions that we think will bring the
Speaker 1: economy back to two percent inflation and achieve maximum employment
Speaker 1: as well as we can while anchoring inflation expectations.
Speaker 3: So it really it really.
Speaker 1: Depends on what happens, how do the data change, and
Speaker 1: also kind of how long the inflationary effects, say of tariffs,
Speaker 1: seem to be lasting. Right now, we can theorize what
Speaker 1: may or may not happen. Once we have more information,
Speaker 1: we see how that's going through the economy, then we
Speaker 1: can make more informed decisions.
Speaker 3: And I know it's difficult.
Speaker 2: Then we don't want to speculate, but the market is
Speaker 2: speculating what the market is expecting. You know, at the
Speaker 2: margin one cont this year, are they more or less right?
Speaker 1: Well, I don't like to say the market's right or wrong.
Speaker 1: I think the market participants are doing exactly what we're doing.
Speaker 3: They're analyzing the looking at.
Speaker 1: The data, they're looking at the announcements they're analyzing that.
Speaker 1: One of the things you definitely see in the market
Speaker 1: pricing in the US is kind of the modal kind
Speaker 1: of forecast for interest rates is a relatively gradual decline
Speaker 1: of interest rates reflecting the economy doing reasonably well. But
Speaker 1: they also market participants are thinking about what happens if
Speaker 1: the economy weakens more, and that would call for more
Speaker 1: rate cuts in that environment.
Speaker 3: So they are having to think through that.
Speaker 1: They have to kind of guess what may or may
Speaker 1: not happen and make those decisions. But right now, you know,
Speaker 1: we're just it can be focused on what we're doing
Speaker 1: today and really think through all the different scenarios so
Speaker 1: that we're ready as we get more data to kind
Speaker 1: of know what to how to interpret the data and
Speaker 1: eventually what do we need, what we may need to do.
Speaker 2: And it is scenarios, it's not like two three data points.
Speaker 2: It's actually trying to understand the picture because I guess
Speaker 2: it's what the outcomes could be.
Speaker 1: So one right, and again with a focus on unemployment
Speaker 1: and inflation, but with terriffs as a Pacific example, it
Speaker 1: really depends on which countries, which goods, It depends on
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of different factors. There is no
Speaker 1: one rule that says a tariff of X causes inflation
Speaker 1: of why so luckily in the you know, the fad
Speaker 1: and of course elsewhere, we have a lot of experts
Speaker 1: who have studied this for decades. They've looked at past
Speaker 1: episodes and done a lot of careful analysis. But one
Speaker 1: of the things you learn from that is the answer
Speaker 1: you get depends on how good the information you have.
Speaker 3: So we're going to have to see obviously.
Speaker 1: The you know, the trade policies are very much still
Speaker 1: in flux.
Speaker 3: That's changing.
Speaker 1: We're going to keep watching that those developments, and along
Speaker 1: with everything else is happening in the global economy.
Speaker 3: It's not just about trade policy. And then, you know,
Speaker 3: you know.
Speaker 2: Take it from there, how's the US consumer doing well?
Speaker 1: It's interesting the US consumer never lets us down. I mean, really,
Speaker 1: there's all a lot of predictions of weakness back in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two when we were raising rates quickly, that
Speaker 1: the consumer would finally balk and slow down, and they
Speaker 1: continue to be. Consumer spending continue to be good, and
Speaker 1: clearly again this is kind of the line between the
Speaker 1: hard data and the soft data. The actual consumer spending
Speaker 1: has held up pretty well. But we are hearing more
Speaker 1: reports from businesses and others that you know, consumers are
Speaker 1: starting to pair back some of that discretionary spending. We
Speaker 1: do think that consumers did load up on some you know,
Speaker 1: important goods earlier in the year because before tariffs hit,
Speaker 1: we know businesses did, that's for sure, So there was
Speaker 1: a bit of that behavior. So people are definitely again
Speaker 1: I think consumer has been pretty healthy. Has also been
Speaker 1: kind of preparing for what happens of tariffs come in.
Speaker 2: President Williams. I mean you've done such, you know, really
Speaker 2: significant work and research on neutral rates. Is how important
Speaker 2: is it actually in all this uncertainty to have that
Speaker 2: in mind?
Speaker 1: Well, I would say it's to me again, I've spent
Speaker 1: a lot of my life setting this, so I'm going
Speaker 1: to say it's important. It's important as a way of
Speaker 1: thinking about what's a normal interest rate. When we think
Speaker 1: about where our interest rate is today, you want to compare.
Speaker 3: It to something that's normal.
Speaker 1: So I think having this idea of a long run
Speaker 1: neutral interest rate is an important thing to kind of
Speaker 1: have in mind. But in terms of my meeting to
Speaker 1: meeting thinking about what's the right setting of interest rates, that's.
Speaker 3: Not what we're thinking about earlier.
Speaker 1: So I'm thinking about it's you know, what you're thinking
Speaker 1: about then is what's happening with employment, inflation and the
Speaker 1: risks to achieve in our goals. So it's something I
Speaker 1: think is conceptually important to have in the back of
Speaker 1: your mind, but it's not the thing today and what
Speaker 1: you need to do at a on a given day.
Speaker 2: I mean, does it not give you that you know,
Speaker 2: the more immediate term, a good benchmark and you know,
Speaker 2: compared to what interest rates are, does it fluctuate too much?
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's uncertain.
Speaker 1: My estimates from our model that I've worked on have
Speaker 1: actually been relatively constant over the last year and a
Speaker 1: half at around three quarters or a percent for a
Speaker 1: real interest rate, a short made real interest rate, So
Speaker 1: it doesn't seem to refluctuating a lot now, but there's some.
Speaker 3: Uncertainty about it.
Speaker 1: So yes, when you know, you ask me, do I
Speaker 1: think of is monetary policy restrictive?
Speaker 3: I think of that in different ways.
Speaker 1: I do think it's mostly restrictive now, mainly because I'm
Speaker 1: looking at how the economy.
Speaker 3: Is before me, but also in the back of my
Speaker 3: mind is some notion of you.
Speaker 1: Know, real interest rates are are above kind of typical
Speaker 1: estimates of the long run estimates of the new chrient.
Speaker 2: Even if President Trump doesn't do you know, he has
Speaker 2: a lot of thoughts on monetary policy he was again
Speaker 2: talking about last night. Even if he doesn't do anything
Speaker 2: with the chair, removes him or anything like that, does
Speaker 2: it make the job of Japal's successful a lot harder
Speaker 2: to make sure that there's central banking dependence is intact.
Speaker 1: Well, I do think central banking independence is very important.
Speaker 1: I think it's important because if history shows, it leads
Speaker 1: to better outcomes, lower inflation, more stable inflation. We've seen
Speaker 1: that around the world in central banks in many many
Speaker 1: countries that have independent most countries have independent central banks.
Speaker 1: For me, you know, I've been in the FED for
Speaker 1: over thirty years. You know, I come to work every day.
Speaker 1: Just focus on our mission maximum employment, price stability, work
Speaker 1: with people who are choosing to work at the federalis
Speaker 1: or bring all of their knowledge and experience to help
Speaker 1: us do that along with our other responsibilities. So we're
Speaker 1: non partison, we're not political, you know, we just do
Speaker 1: our job as well as we can. And you know,
Speaker 1: kind of what's happening outside in the political world.
Speaker 3: Is it's not what I'm thinking about.
Speaker 2: Do you feel internal pressure or again not so much,
Speaker 2: doesn't actually impact? Does the Central Bank have to try
Speaker 2: harder to make sure that everybody understands that you're independent
Speaker 2: or again does.
Speaker 3: It not factor?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 1: I think you know, it's the same as again throughout
Speaker 1: my career, it's like, we're not partisan, we're not politically
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not even you know, we're not even
Speaker 1: nominated by a political figure through the Federal Reserve Bank
Speaker 1: president process.
Speaker 3: So you really feel like this is.
Speaker 1: How we've always operated, you know, getting through many different
Speaker 1: administrations who through my career, and that has served us
Speaker 1: very well. And that's what I think the American people
Speaker 1: quite honestly expect from us. Like we're pretty technocratic and
Speaker 1: to be honest, very nerdy, very focused on the data,
Speaker 1: the analysis and doing our best for the American people,
Speaker 1: regardless of you know, outside commentary or politics.
Speaker 2: Do you think you as citizens understand what what the
Speaker 2: Central Bank does? Does there need to be more outreach,
Speaker 2: you know, to make sure that they grasp these subjects well?
Speaker 1: I think, you know, one of the things I'll just
Speaker 1: be real about actually is you know, people have lives,
Speaker 1: they've got family, and they've got maybybe people that are
Speaker 1: taken care of. They've got jobs, they've got a lot
Speaker 1: of responsibilities. You know, I wouldn't expect people to spend
Speaker 1: a lot of time thinking about the FOMC meeting and
Speaker 1: the statements and the minutes from the meeting.
Speaker 3: I would hope that if.
Speaker 1: We do our job really well, we're taking the concerns
Speaker 1: about inflation of the future, concerns about is the FED
Speaker 1: going to be there to do their job off the table,
Speaker 1: so that people, whether your families or businesses, can focus
Speaker 1: on the things that's really important for them to get
Speaker 1: right in their lives, and that our job is to
Speaker 1: make them not have to worry as much about economic
Speaker 1: and price price instabilities. And so I feel like, in
Speaker 1: a way a sign of success is that people are not,
Speaker 1: you know, kind of so focused in their everyday lives
Speaker 1: about what we're doing.
Speaker 3: But we just have to, you know, that.
Speaker 1: Commitment just has to show through in our actions and
Speaker 1: hopefully the outcomes that we're able to achieve.
Speaker 2: In President John Williams, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 2: So that's it from right here in Iceland. Where we
Speaker 2: had a central bank for