WEBVTT - New York Fed President John Williams Talks Anchoring Inflation Expectations

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>A short time ago, the Federal Reserve Bank of New

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<v Speaker 2>York President John Williams said, keeping inflation expectations anchored near

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<v Speaker 2>policymakers target forms the bedrock of central bank policy. Warm

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to all of our TV viewers, but also to

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<v Speaker 2>our radio listeners. We're here in Rankivik, and I'm delighted

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<v Speaker 2>to be joined by President Williams. Thank you for joining us.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a dual mandate the Fed. We all heard also

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<v Speaker 2>J Powell on the FMC not cutting rates. You're putting

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<v Speaker 2>firmly the focus on inflation.

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<v Speaker 3>Why now, Well, first.

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<v Speaker 1>Of all, we do have a dual mandate of maximum

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<v Speaker 1>employment and price stability, and these are both very important.

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<v Speaker 1>But one thing we've learned from history is that having

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<v Speaker 1>well anchored inflation expectations, having the public have confidence that,

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<v Speaker 1>regardless of whatever is happening today, that inflation will come

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<v Speaker 1>back to two percent and that will make sure that

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<v Speaker 1>happens is very important for price stability and also.

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<v Speaker 3>For economic stability.

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<v Speaker 1>It helps actually there, it actually helps reinforce our ability

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<v Speaker 1>to achieve both of our goals. And you know, given

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<v Speaker 1>to the uncertainty, given the experience of the past five years.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it's been very important to keep inflation expectations anchored.

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<v Speaker 1>That has been successful. It's really important to keep them

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<v Speaker 1>that way in the future.

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<v Speaker 2>Given the uncertainty on terifs and trades, how difficult is

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<v Speaker 2>it to even have a projection for inflation in the future.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, right now there's a lot of uncertainty about what's happening.

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<v Speaker 3>With trade policy or other policies.

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<v Speaker 1>So for me, what's important is think through a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of different scenarios. Right now, the economy is in a

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<v Speaker 1>really good place in the US, unemployments and four point

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<v Speaker 1>two percent, inflation's two point three percent. The other indicators

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<v Speaker 1>show we're still pray solid economy. So right now we

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<v Speaker 1>have time. You know, we're in a good place. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>policy is in a good place. Let's collect more data

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<v Speaker 1>information about what's happening with trade policy, what's its likely

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<v Speaker 1>effects on the economy, And then once we have that

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<v Speaker 1>more information, we can kind of think of do we

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<v Speaker 1>you know, what's that mean for the achievement of our

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<v Speaker 1>goals in our policy.

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<v Speaker 2>I know you don't like when people say, look, the

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<v Speaker 2>FED seems unwilling actually because of inflation to act preemptively

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<v Speaker 2>to bolster the labor market. So how do you explain

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<v Speaker 2>this contrasting in the future.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, right now, again the labor market has proven to

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<v Speaker 1>be resilient. It's strong even through the data through April.

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<v Speaker 1>So what we you know, what we want to do

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<v Speaker 1>is really get an idea of what the tariffs are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be. Other policy decisions are run these through

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<v Speaker 1>different scenarios, through our models and our analysis, listen to

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<v Speaker 1>what business and other leaders are telling us what they're

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<v Speaker 1>actually doing in response to these policies, and then come

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<v Speaker 1>to a view of what's happening to employment, inflation, and

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<v Speaker 1>importantly the risks to that outlook. So you know, once

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<v Speaker 1>we have that better information, we can assess the situation

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<v Speaker 1>and make decisions. So it's it's about getting the information

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<v Speaker 1>so we understand the direction of travel for the economy

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<v Speaker 1>and make the best decision possible. We don't but right now,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, things are still quite in a good place.

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<v Speaker 2>If you know there's a sharp downturn actually an unemployment,

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<v Speaker 2>but you're still worried about inflation, does it mean that

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<v Speaker 2>fin cuts will have to be quite aggressive quite quickly?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it's really hard to speculate and what would

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<v Speaker 1>you do if this situation happened In that situation, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>where we're in a situation which we could be in

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<v Speaker 1>where inflation is higher and unemployment is higher. We need

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<v Speaker 1>to balance the achievement of both of those goals. We

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<v Speaker 1>need to take actions that we think will bring the

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<v Speaker 1>economy back to two percent inflation and achieve maximum employment

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<v Speaker 1>as well as we can while anchoring inflation expectations.

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<v Speaker 3>So it really it really.

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<v Speaker 1>Depends on what happens, how do the data change, and

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<v Speaker 1>also kind of how long the inflationary effects, say of tariffs,

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<v Speaker 1>seem to be lasting. Right now, we can theorize what

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<v Speaker 1>may or may not happen. Once we have more information,

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<v Speaker 1>we see how that's going through the economy, then we

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<v Speaker 1>can make more informed decisions.

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<v Speaker 3>And I know it's difficult.

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<v Speaker 2>Then we don't want to speculate, but the market is

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<v Speaker 2>speculating what the market is expecting. You know, at the

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<v Speaker 2>margin one cont this year, are they more or less right?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I don't like to say the market's right or wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the market participants are doing exactly what we're doing.

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<v Speaker 3>They're analyzing the looking at.

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<v Speaker 1>The data, they're looking at the announcements they're analyzing that.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the things you definitely see in the market

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<v Speaker 1>pricing in the US is kind of the modal kind

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<v Speaker 1>of forecast for interest rates is a relatively gradual decline

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<v Speaker 1>of interest rates reflecting the economy doing reasonably well. But

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<v Speaker 1>they also market participants are thinking about what happens if

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<v Speaker 1>the economy weakens more, and that would call for more

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<v Speaker 1>rate cuts in that environment.

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<v Speaker 3>So they are having to think through that.

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<v Speaker 1>They have to kind of guess what may or may

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<v Speaker 1>not happen and make those decisions. But right now, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we're just it can be focused on what we're doing

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<v Speaker 1>today and really think through all the different scenarios so

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<v Speaker 1>that we're ready as we get more data to kind

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<v Speaker 1>of know what to how to interpret the data and

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<v Speaker 1>eventually what do we need, what we may need to do.

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<v Speaker 2>And it is scenarios, it's not like two three data points.

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<v Speaker 2>It's actually trying to understand the picture because I guess

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<v Speaker 2>it's what the outcomes could be.

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<v Speaker 1>So one right, and again with a focus on unemployment

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<v Speaker 1>and inflation, but with terriffs as a Pacific example, it

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<v Speaker 1>really depends on which countries, which goods, It depends on

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a lot of different factors. There is no

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<v Speaker 1>one rule that says a tariff of X causes inflation

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<v Speaker 1>of why so luckily in the you know, the fad

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<v Speaker 1>and of course elsewhere, we have a lot of experts

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<v Speaker 1>who have studied this for decades. They've looked at past

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<v Speaker 1>episodes and done a lot of careful analysis. But one

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<v Speaker 1>of the things you learn from that is the answer

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<v Speaker 1>you get depends on how good the information you have.

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<v Speaker 3>So we're going to have to see obviously.

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<v Speaker 1>The you know, the trade policies are very much still

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<v Speaker 1>in flux.

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<v Speaker 3>That's changing.

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to keep watching that those developments, and along

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<v Speaker 1>with everything else is happening in the global economy.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not just about trade policy. And then, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>you know.

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<v Speaker 2>Take it from there, how's the US consumer doing well?

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<v Speaker 1>It's interesting the US consumer never lets us down. I mean, really,

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<v Speaker 1>there's all a lot of predictions of weakness back in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty two when we were raising rates quickly, that

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<v Speaker 1>the consumer would finally balk and slow down, and they

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<v Speaker 1>continue to be. Consumer spending continue to be good, and

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<v Speaker 1>clearly again this is kind of the line between the

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<v Speaker 1>hard data and the soft data. The actual consumer spending

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<v Speaker 1>has held up pretty well. But we are hearing more

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<v Speaker 1>reports from businesses and others that you know, consumers are

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<v Speaker 1>starting to pair back some of that discretionary spending. We

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<v Speaker 1>do think that consumers did load up on some you know,

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<v Speaker 1>important goods earlier in the year because before tariffs hit,

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<v Speaker 1>we know businesses did, that's for sure, So there was

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<v Speaker 1>a bit of that behavior. So people are definitely again

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<v Speaker 1>I think consumer has been pretty healthy. Has also been

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<v Speaker 1>kind of preparing for what happens of tariffs come in.

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<v Speaker 2>President Williams. I mean you've done such, you know, really

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<v Speaker 2>significant work and research on neutral rates. Is how important

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<v Speaker 2>is it actually in all this uncertainty to have that

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<v Speaker 2>in mind?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I would say it's to me again, I've spent

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of my life setting this, so I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>to say it's important. It's important as a way of

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<v Speaker 1>thinking about what's a normal interest rate. When we think

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<v Speaker 1>about where our interest rate is today, you want to compare.

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<v Speaker 3>It to something that's normal.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think having this idea of a long run

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<v Speaker 1>neutral interest rate is an important thing to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>have in mind. But in terms of my meeting to

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<v Speaker 1>meeting thinking about what's the right setting of interest rates, that's.

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<v Speaker 3>Not what we're thinking about earlier.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm thinking about it's you know, what you're thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about then is what's happening with employment, inflation and the

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<v Speaker 1>risks to achieve in our goals. So it's something I

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<v Speaker 1>think is conceptually important to have in the back of

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<v Speaker 1>your mind, but it's not the thing today and what

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<v Speaker 1>you need to do at a on a given day.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, does it not give you that you know,

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<v Speaker 2>the more immediate term, a good benchmark and you know,

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<v Speaker 2>compared to what interest rates are, does it fluctuate too much?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, you know, it's uncertain.

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<v Speaker 1>My estimates from our model that I've worked on have

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<v Speaker 1>actually been relatively constant over the last year and a

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<v Speaker 1>half at around three quarters or a percent for a

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<v Speaker 1>real interest rate, a short made real interest rate, So

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't seem to refluctuating a lot now, but there's some.

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<v Speaker 3>Uncertainty about it.

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<v Speaker 1>So yes, when you know, you ask me, do I

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<v Speaker 1>think of is monetary policy restrictive?

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<v Speaker 3>I think of that in different ways.

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<v Speaker 1>I do think it's mostly restrictive now, mainly because I'm

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<v Speaker 1>looking at how the economy.

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<v Speaker 3>Is before me, but also in the back of my

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<v Speaker 3>mind is some notion of you.

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<v Speaker 1>Know, real interest rates are are above kind of typical

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<v Speaker 1>estimates of the long run estimates of the new chrient.

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<v Speaker 2>Even if President Trump doesn't do you know, he has

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of thoughts on monetary policy he was again

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<v Speaker 2>talking about last night. Even if he doesn't do anything

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<v Speaker 2>with the chair, removes him or anything like that, does

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<v Speaker 2>it make the job of Japal's successful a lot harder

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<v Speaker 2>to make sure that there's central banking dependence is intact.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I do think central banking independence is very important.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's important because if history shows, it leads

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<v Speaker 1>to better outcomes, lower inflation, more stable inflation. We've seen

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<v Speaker 1>that around the world in central banks in many many

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<v Speaker 1>countries that have independent most countries have independent central banks.

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<v Speaker 1>For me, you know, I've been in the FED for

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<v Speaker 1>over thirty years. You know, I come to work every day.

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<v Speaker 1>Just focus on our mission maximum employment, price stability, work

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<v Speaker 1>with people who are choosing to work at the federalis

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<v Speaker 1>or bring all of their knowledge and experience to help

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<v Speaker 1>us do that along with our other responsibilities. So we're

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<v Speaker 1>non partison, we're not political, you know, we just do

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<v Speaker 1>our job as well as we can. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of what's happening outside in the political world.

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<v Speaker 3>Is it's not what I'm thinking about.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you feel internal pressure or again not so much,

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't actually impact? Does the Central Bank have to try

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<v Speaker 2>harder to make sure that everybody understands that you're independent

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<v Speaker 2>or again does.

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<v Speaker 3>It not factor?

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<v Speaker 2>No?

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<v Speaker 1>I think you know, it's the same as again throughout

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<v Speaker 1>my career, it's like, we're not partisan, we're not politically

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I'm not even you know, we're not even

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<v Speaker 1>nominated by a political figure through the Federal Reserve Bank

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<v Speaker 1>president process.

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<v Speaker 3>So you really feel like this is.

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<v Speaker 1>How we've always operated, you know, getting through many different

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<v Speaker 1>administrations who through my career, and that has served us

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<v Speaker 1>very well. And that's what I think the American people

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<v Speaker 1>quite honestly expect from us. Like we're pretty technocratic and

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<v Speaker 1>to be honest, very nerdy, very focused on the data,

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<v Speaker 1>the analysis and doing our best for the American people,

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<v Speaker 1>regardless of you know, outside commentary or politics.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think you as citizens understand what what the

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<v Speaker 2>Central Bank does? Does there need to be more outreach,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, to make sure that they grasp these subjects well?

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<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, one of the things I'll just

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<v Speaker 1>be real about actually is you know, people have lives,

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<v Speaker 1>they've got family, and they've got maybybe people that are

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<v Speaker 1>taken care of. They've got jobs, they've got a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of responsibilities. You know, I wouldn't expect people to spend

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of time thinking about the FOMC meeting and

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<v Speaker 1>the statements and the minutes from the meeting.

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<v Speaker 3>I would hope that if.

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<v Speaker 1>We do our job really well, we're taking the concerns

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<v Speaker 1>about inflation of the future, concerns about is the FED

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<v Speaker 1>going to be there to do their job off the table,

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<v Speaker 1>so that people, whether your families or businesses, can focus

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<v Speaker 1>on the things that's really important for them to get

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<v Speaker 1>right in their lives, and that our job is to

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<v Speaker 1>make them not have to worry as much about economic

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<v Speaker 1>and price price instabilities. And so I feel like, in

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<v Speaker 1>a way a sign of success is that people are not,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, kind of so focused in their everyday lives

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<v Speaker 1>about what we're doing.

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<v Speaker 3>But we just have to, you know, that.

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<v Speaker 1>Commitment just has to show through in our actions and

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<v Speaker 1>hopefully the outcomes that we're able to achieve.

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<v Speaker 2>In President John Williams, thank you so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's it from right here in Iceland. Where we

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<v Speaker 2>had a central bank for