1 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:11,479 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the podcast part of the 2 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: Volume and Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman of the 3 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: Action Network. Today. I'm joined as always by my co host, 4 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: my companion, my campadre might be a ff professional better, 5 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:24,240 Speaker 1: Simon Hunter Rosimon. 6 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 2: Hello, Chad, how are we doing? 7 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 1: I am so psyched for today's episode, which came together 8 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:36,880 Speaker 1: quickly because it's very rare that you get an opportunity 9 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:42,240 Speaker 1: in which the entire world's attention is on a singular event, 10 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,480 Speaker 1: in this case, electing the new Pope and the conclave 11 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 1: that is happening right now, and it also happens to 12 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 1: coincide with a massive, worldwide, historic betting market. But that's 13 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 1: what we have today right now, the biggest betting event 14 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 1: in the world is trying to figure out how you 15 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 1: can make money off of who is going to be 16 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: the next pope. And by the way, this goes back 17 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: five centuries. People have been betting on who will be 18 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: the next pope, going back to the early fifteen hundreds. 19 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: I cannot wait to discuss this with you, Simon and 20 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 1: have everybody find out what your confirmation name was. But 21 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: we're going to bring in our guests because it is 22 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: incredibly difficult to really understand and handicap who the next 23 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 1: Pope is going to be? So our very own Judas, 24 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 1: a man who walked away from action, joined the Ringer 25 00:01:56,080 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: and today has a fantastic story up on the Ringer 26 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: called who Wants the Smoke? Trying to predict the unpredictable 27 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: Papal Conclave. A man who calls himself the Holy Trinity 28 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: of Italian, American, Catholic and Gambler. Welcome back to the show, 29 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 1: Anthony de Bundo. 30 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 3: I'll be honest, I did not expect to be called 31 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 3: back to talk about the Papal conclave. And if you 32 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 3: had told me that two weeks ago, even four days ago, 33 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 3: I probably would have laughed at you. But I'm happy 34 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 3: to be here, excited to break down this incredible event 35 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 3: that really we only get a handful of times in 36 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 3: our entire lives. 37 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 1: This is only the This is probably the second one 38 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 1: for you, and thirdnman, third, right, third one. So I 39 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 1: guess this would be the fourth one for me because 40 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 1: I was alive when John Paul the Second got the gig, 41 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: and then Benedict, and then Francis and now whoever will 42 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 1: be next, which we're going to determine today. I'm super 43 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 1: excited because I did not know this until we came 44 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: on the air. Anthony Catholic, Simon Catholic, Matt Mitchell went 45 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 1: to Catholic school. Gif for Gould, producer went to Catholic school. 46 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: One Jew on this show who does not really know 47 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: anything about Catholicism. So I'm excited to get educated as 48 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,519 Speaker 1: we talk about this. By the way, don't forget everybody 49 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: at Real Chad Millman. Go subscribe. Find lots of content 50 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: there from the show. Other stuff gambling history of which 51 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 1: this is a core part. You can wager on who 52 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 1: the next Pope will be, and a number of unregulated 53 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: offshore sports books. We like to keep things legal and 54 00:03:56,560 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 1: above board. On this show, we're going to be referencing Calshi, 55 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: a prediction market that is legal in all fifty US states, 56 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 1: election betting, fed rate betting, basketball trading. They call it trading. 57 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 1: They don't call it betting, but they actually allow you 58 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 1: to buy and sell positions on practically everything newsworthy, from 59 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 1: pop culture and news headlines to multiple markets related to 60 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 1: the announcement of the next Pope. If you haven't signed 61 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: up for Calshi yet, use code action at sign up 62 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: for a ten dollars bonus. Link to do that quickly 63 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 1: and easily is in the description build some papal positions. 64 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 1: All right, before we even get to it, let's define 65 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 1: your Catholic bona fides here, because we don't want people 66 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:58,919 Speaker 1: to think you're being sacrilegious or inauthentic. Signon, tell us 67 00:04:58,960 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: how good a Catholic you really? 68 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 2: I was not a good Catholic in any sense of 69 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 2: the word, but I've been. I started going to church 70 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 2: like any good nineties family. My parents made me, my 71 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 2: three brothers go to church from I want to say, 72 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 2: pre k like they would stick me in this like 73 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 2: Sunday classroom until seventh eighth grade until I got my 74 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 2: confirmation brother. So I went to Sunday Mass for I 75 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 2: don't know ten straight years, which looking back is insane 76 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 2: that this is before cell phones or anything. You just 77 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 2: stick some kids on a wooden bench and just being 78 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 2: the most boring place in the world for an hour 79 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 2: while people just sing around you. So God, God bless 80 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,719 Speaker 2: my parents. But yeah, I got a confirmation name. My 81 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 2: name is in Saint chach Is. British people old fashioned. 82 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 2: You used to have two middle names. So my full 83 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 2: name with my Hunter as last name is Simon Edward 84 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 2: Thomas Damien Hunter. So Damien is my confirmation name. There 85 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,599 Speaker 2: is a Saint Damien out there, and as a little 86 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 2: shitthead seventh grader, I made that my confirmation name to 87 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 2: get back in my teacher who just God bless this 88 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 2: woman just would just absolutely hated me. Her name was 89 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 2: missus Dickerson. I don't know if she's still around, but 90 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 2: obviously with that last name and me being a little 91 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 2: smart ass, it was it was a long eight years 92 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 2: of having me and her CCD classes. So yeah, been 93 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 2: a Catholic and still to this day. You know, we 94 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 2: still go to the Sunday Mass. Like there's two I 95 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,799 Speaker 2: would say, people like me who are fake religious people 96 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 2: say Catholics we go to Sunday Mass and Easter Sunday. 97 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:34,280 Speaker 2: Probably haven't been chatting about eight ten years, I'm gonna know, 98 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 2: but I have, I have had said them, did that 99 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 2: someday I might get married and I might have a wife. 100 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 2: That's like we gotta go. So if I meeting nice Jew, 101 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:45,160 Speaker 2: I'll go to temple. If not, I'll probably back in 102 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 2: the church. So I'm trying to hold out as long 103 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:49,040 Speaker 2: as I can till I have to go back. 104 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: Brother by the way, says I got to Philly guys 105 00:06:54,440 --> 00:07:00,080 Speaker 1: with me today. One of my favorite always Sunnies. I 106 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,719 Speaker 1: think it's season one. It's like episode it could be 107 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:06,279 Speaker 1: episode three, four or five, whatever, almost an entire episode 108 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 1: about whether or not you can say the word Jew 109 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: or if like all of a sudden that becomes anti Semitic, 110 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 1: which was just a classic classic episode. All right, debundo, 111 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: give us your Catholic bona fides, so we know that 112 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: none of us are going to hell. We come to 113 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: this from an honest, proactive, fatable, positive place. 114 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 4: Debatable. I you know, it's definitely not. 115 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 3: It's frowned upon by some in the Catholic Church to 116 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 3: bet on anything, but especially the papal outcome. But yeah, 117 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:42,119 Speaker 3: I went to Catholic school in kindergarten, went to public 118 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 3: school for the rest of my education, but I was 119 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 3: an altar boy for a few years in kind of. 120 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 4: I think it was like sixth and seventh grade. 121 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 3: I made my confirmation, all the sacraments of my communion, 122 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 3: and you know, maybe one day we'll see I'll get 123 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 3: married in the Catholic Church. 124 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 4: But it's a part of my family. 125 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 3: It's not a huge part of my family, and so 126 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 3: it's something that that kind of comes and goes. My Catholicism. 127 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 3: Definitely have my fair share of issues with the Church. 128 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 3: We won't get into, but I think that it is 129 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 3: a fascinating experience to grow up a Catholic. 130 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: Well, in the Bible, I believe it says in some 131 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 1: form I might be paraphrasing here, money is the root 132 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 1: of all evil? Am I correct? 133 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 4: Yes, voice correct technically? 134 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 1: So what are we doing here? I feel like we're 135 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 1: just we're raised. 136 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 4: It's not even about money, it's about raising mistakes. 137 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 1: I'm going to hell. 138 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 4: That is true. 139 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 3: We would have been ext communicated from the church for 140 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 3: this if we did it for a period of about 141 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 3: three hundred and twenty years. 142 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 1: Well, thank god, whatever Pope decided it was okay. Has 143 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: modernized the times. And that's really what we're here to 144 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 1: talk about today. Will the conclave, Will the cardinals when 145 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 1: the white smoke billows have chosen a pope who is 146 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: along the progressive and liberal lane that Francis has been 147 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 1: on during he had been on during his reign, which 148 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: was what twelve years, will they go more conservative Anthony 149 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: before we even get into that. Your story's great, What 150 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: did you learn about the history of betting on the 151 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 1: pope that makes us feel better about this? 152 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, so it starts and as early as we can tell, 153 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 3: dates back to fifteen oh three. So in Rome when 154 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 3: they were choosing the new pope, kind of like if 155 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 3: you saw the movie Gladiator two, where in the movie 156 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 3: they're like horse trading on the street, betting on who 157 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:39,719 Speaker 3: they think that the winner of the Gladiators games are 158 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 3: going to be. It's similar to that, and that it 159 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 3: was kind of how betting worked, where you could have 160 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 3: brokers and Roman banking houses that would take bets on 161 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 3: who the next quote was going to be. And you know, 162 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 3: back then it was just always a much smaller process. 163 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 3: It wasn't the same you know, massive conclave that they 164 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:01,079 Speaker 3: have now super secretive. The oath of secrecy has become 165 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 3: a newer thing, and so back then, I'm sure there 166 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:05,439 Speaker 3: was a lot of insider trading. There was a lot 167 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 3: of who knew a guy who knew a guy who 168 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 3: knew a guy's cousin. But basically the church decided we 169 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 3: really don't want this, because in fifteen ninety one they 170 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 3: said we don't want anybody betting on this, So we 171 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 3: are now saying you are excommunicated from the church if 172 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 3: you decide you're gonna bet on the pope. But they 173 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 3: lifted it in nineteen eighteen, so we're back. 174 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: Technically, we're back, baby, But the reality is that it 175 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: kind of one and ten years of betting on this pope, 176 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: but it. 177 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 3: Never really left because you can go back to nineteen 178 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 3: oh three, the Italian government was offering bets on when 179 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 3: the sick Pope Leo the thirteenth would die, so you 180 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 3: can literally bet on like will this guy live for 181 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 3: X amount of time? So clearly like betting on pope 182 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:55,199 Speaker 3: outcomes is something that even when the Church didn't like 183 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 3: it, it was still happening regardless, which is similar to you 184 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 3: know how betting works on sports in America, right, It 185 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:02,599 Speaker 3: happened long before it became legal, but now we just 186 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 3: get to talk about it more openly. 187 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 1: It doesn't go away, it just happens somewhere else. That's 188 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:11,959 Speaker 1: really the gist of the story for betting. Just about 189 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 1: every other device that has ever been that anyone has 190 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: ever tried to legislate, eradicate, or control, it's just going 191 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 1: to happen, water finds a crack, that's just how it goes. Simon, 192 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 1: give us your take. Is there a wise guy market 193 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 1: that you're hearing about amongst all your scumbag Philly friends 194 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 1: that is going on for the pope right now? 195 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 2: Unfortunately I have not if those tax messages I'm being 196 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 2: left out of. Like I've heard a little bit about 197 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 2: it in some chatter, but that's honestly in my own 198 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 2: personal life, not from better. So, like we just talked about, 199 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 2: this is a market that is real, but I don't 200 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:55,320 Speaker 2: think it's one that, like you know, pros dedicate their 201 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 2: lives too, because like we just said, it's once in 202 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 2: every twelve years, could be once every twenty five five years. 203 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 2: It's just such a niche market. But you know me, chat, 204 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 2: I'll bet on anything. I've done deadpools before, so like 205 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:10,320 Speaker 2: this is nothing to me. And question for anything though, 206 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 2: is you know, being on the East Coast, what time 207 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 2: do they burn the paper? Like is it one o'clock, 208 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:18,959 Speaker 2: two o'clock East coast? Like when do that? When does 209 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 2: the smoke happen? Is that just a random time every 210 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 2: day or is it a set time that they burn? 211 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 2: And let us know the black smoke or the white smoke. 212 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, so they have the first day, which was Wednesday, 213 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 3: first day the conclave. They gather in the evening and 214 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 3: they have the first vote, so the first vote already happened. 215 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 3: As of now, we're recording this Thursday morning. The first 216 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 3: vote already happened and it was black smoke. So no 217 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 3: new pope, no two thirds majority. The second day and 218 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 3: every day they're off after So starting on Thursday, there 219 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,320 Speaker 3: will be four votes per day, two in the morning, 220 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:52,319 Speaker 3: so they've already happened. We're recording this eleven am. It's 221 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,439 Speaker 3: five pm in Rome. They've already had the two morning votes. 222 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 3: Then they'll have the evening votes if necessary. Then after 223 00:12:57,400 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 3: the fourth round of voting they break for the day. 224 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 3: They come back the third day. So we don't know 225 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 3: when the smoke will turn white, but it could be 226 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 3: as early as tonight as this afternoon really, because it'll 227 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 3: be around three four o'clock PM Eastern, which was yesterday. 228 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 3: It was three pm Eastern that they put out the 229 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 3: black smoke. I suspect it'll be around the same time 230 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 3: again today, So around three four o'clock Eastern you'll get 231 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 3: the smoke. 232 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 2: So your advice to people listen to this would be 233 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:23,440 Speaker 2: whatever you give out here, try to get to this 234 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,319 Speaker 2: market attack and now, because it could happen literally today. 235 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 4: Pope Francis was elected on the second day. 236 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 3: Oh, traditionally it's been longer, but it's gotten shorter as 237 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 3: time has gone on. 238 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 4: So usually it's like three or four days. 239 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 3: You have to remember, like you're being sequestered, right, So 240 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:39,960 Speaker 3: these cardinals, as much as the sacred process, they don't. 241 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:41,200 Speaker 4: Want to be sitting in the conclave. 242 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 3: You know, there was a joke about how they're raw 243 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 3: dogging it without their phones, Like they don't want to 244 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:47,679 Speaker 3: be doing this for months on end, weeks on end. 245 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 3: They want to get to the solution as well, so 246 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 3: or doing the. 247 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 2: One thing we know they're not doing is checking Instagram 248 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 2: because their devices all I believe the kids. 249 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 4: I believe the kids call it raw dogging it. 250 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:00,319 Speaker 3: If you're going to go through a long period of 251 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 3: time with no electronic device. 252 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 1: Yeah right, well they're of a certain age. Yeah it's 253 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: not sixteen hundred. There's other things to do. 254 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 2: Now. 255 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: I want to explain a little bit at what Calshi 256 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 1: is so people understand when you're going to play on 257 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:18,439 Speaker 1: the platform. What you're really doing. It's essentially a trading platform, 258 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 1: and you're trading what are called contracts. You're buying and selling. 259 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 1: You're making a bit on a price on a market, 260 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 1: you're selling a market. That's how you're operating on these platforms. 261 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 1: I think they're fascinating. I think it's the direction a 262 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: lot of this is going. Everyone should go and check 263 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: it out. I've played with it a ton, and you know, 264 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: for the book that I've talked about on the show. 265 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 1: I think prediction markets over the next two to three 266 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 1: years are going to become more and more influential. I 267 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 1: have no doubts that, especially when we get to a 268 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight presidential election. There are analysts on the 269 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 1: desks for all the major broadcasts that are looking at 270 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 1: what is happening in the election. From the perspective of 271 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: the prediction markets, it's a great source of truth on 272 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 1: what people with actual money on the line are doing. 273 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 1: It cleans up I think a lot of the noise 274 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 1: from the polling data that is becoming less and less 275 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 1: accurate and reliable. So I'm a huge fan of what 276 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 1: these platforms are doing. They are now offering a lot 277 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 1: of different markets in sports. But like I said, you'll go, 278 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 1: you'll check it out. You'll see the Pope, You'll see 279 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 1: what's the Fed gonna do. You can see markets about 280 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 1: what Elon Musk is going to do. You can see 281 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 1: markets about Tesla. It's like any market that anyone has 282 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 1: a decision on or an opinion on, can be posted 283 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: and then bought and sold. It's really really fascinating. So Anthony, 284 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: in your story, explain how the makeup of the cardinals 285 00:15:55,080 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 1: has changed during Francis's time, because I do you think 286 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: that's going to have a huge impact on how voting 287 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 1: may play out. 288 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, so you hear about like stacking the courts, packing 289 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 3: the courts, Francis did a little bit of conclave cardinal packing. 290 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 3: One hundred and eight of the one hundred and thirty 291 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 3: three members are new and appointed by Francis, so this 292 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 3: is their first conclave. So many of these people they've 293 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 3: never met. They've been doing a lot of listening sessions 294 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 3: and conversations before the doors were even locked to kind 295 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 3: of get to know each other, to get to understand 296 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,600 Speaker 3: the different factions that are forming. And so this really 297 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 3: is incredibly uncertain. As a result of that, because it 298 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 3: can go two ways. One hand, you could say, hey, 299 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 3: they're new, they're more likely to listen to the quote 300 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 3: unquote elders. Or you could say they're new they could 301 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 3: want to continue and push the church even further in 302 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 3: the progressive direction. And so I think there's a lot 303 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 3: of questions about how that will actually manifest itself. But 304 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 3: one thing that is certainly true is that the makeup 305 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 3: geographically is vastly different than it was twelve years ago. 306 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 3: Europe used to be the center of power of the 307 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 3: Catholic Church. 308 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 4: It still is, but much less now. 309 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:10,359 Speaker 3: So Africa has more cardinals than it ever has, South 310 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:13,919 Speaker 3: America and Asia all have seen significant increases in their 311 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 3: percentage of the vote, and so those voters have more 312 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 3: weight now to throw around. Whereas it used to just 313 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 3: be all right, Europe would kind of just pick their guy. 314 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 3: Usually it was an Italian, we had a German, we 315 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 3: had a Polish guy. But now with you know, Francis's 316 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 3: election and now his reign, the church is much more 317 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 3: worldwide than it used to be. And if they want 318 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:37,760 Speaker 3: to continue that, they could end up picking somebody who's 319 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 3: not in Europe. 320 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:45,360 Speaker 1: This is where it starts to get interesting. The politics 321 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 1: of the church really are in play here because Francis, 322 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,919 Speaker 1: as I said at the beginning, has been considered to 323 00:17:55,920 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 1: be a more liberal, more progressive pope. There are players 324 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 1: in the church who would like the church to lean 325 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: more conservative. But to me, in your story, the way 326 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: you handicapped it, there were only one or two people 327 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 1: who really had a chance as conservative sort of backers 328 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 1: to become the next pope. Break it down sort of 329 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 1: how the moderate liberal conservative factions can influence this. 330 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:36,119 Speaker 4: Yeah, it is. 331 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 3: It is hard because you know, the way we think 332 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,880 Speaker 3: about politics as Americans is inherently a little different than 333 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,679 Speaker 3: how religious politics work. And then how like even in Europe, 334 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:49,480 Speaker 3: how that works because there's different kinds of theory, right, 335 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 3: Because you could be a progressive on certain issues that 336 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:54,400 Speaker 3: the church takes up, like how do you feel about 337 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:56,920 Speaker 3: mass immigration? How do you feel about climate change? Which 338 00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 3: were things that Francis would be considered very liberal on, 339 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,879 Speaker 3: but then you could also be more conservative on like 340 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:06,440 Speaker 3: the actual Bible, the religious text, the theology of it all, 341 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 3: And so you might not see yourself and you could 342 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:10,760 Speaker 3: take multiple different positions. 343 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 4: And so I think that's where it gets a little 344 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 4: bit tricky. 345 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 3: When you try to just like line people up on 346 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 3: a scale from one to the other. But certainly like 347 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,200 Speaker 3: I think the most conservative front runner is Peter Erdo 348 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 3: of from Hungary, who has been a key figure in 349 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,320 Speaker 3: the conservative block. But he's not like if you watch 350 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 3: the movie and I made this joke in the movie, 351 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 3: like the conservative guy to Desco. I don't know if 352 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:36,400 Speaker 3: you've seen Conclave, but he's like this very like loud, bombastic, 353 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,639 Speaker 3: like my way of the Highway type that is not 354 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 3: really how Erdo is characterized. He's seen as kind of 355 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 3: a consensus builder. And so we've seen a right word 356 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 3: shift along a lot of political institutions in Europe, especially 357 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 3: elections have gone the way of right wing parties. But 358 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 3: this is not an election of like your average Catholic voter. 359 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:57,639 Speaker 3: This is people again that France has picked. And so 360 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 3: if Francis's influence is going to away on this conclave, 361 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 3: and he seemed to be pretty well respected by the 362 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:06,359 Speaker 3: majority of the of the voters in this conclave, then 363 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:10,359 Speaker 3: how do you form a two thirds consensus without people 364 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,640 Speaker 3: who liked him and want his legacy to continue. That's 365 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 3: where I think it does get hard for the more 366 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 3: conservative candidates. 367 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:23,160 Speaker 1: I like airdo because you can say post hoc airdough 368 00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 1: propter hoc and and it almost feels like you're back 369 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: in the West wing. That, by the way, is Latin 370 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:36,680 Speaker 1: for after this therefore, because of this, but we did 371 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: a little wordplay, it's airgo, not airdo. Simon Matt Mitchell 372 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,440 Speaker 1: is probably going to cut that out plain to about 373 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: one other persons same. Here's what I like about this 374 00:20:55,520 --> 00:21:02,120 Speaker 1: from a completely from a handicapping exercise. There is literally 375 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 1: zero information available, right and unless you're the you know, 376 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 1: Vatican bureau chief for the New York Times or the 377 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: Washington Post or the Guardian or any other international media outlet, 378 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:23,640 Speaker 1: there's no sourcing. None of those reporters are in the conclave, 379 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:25,640 Speaker 1: and a lot of those reporters have probably never met 380 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:27,159 Speaker 1: the cardinals who are coming, because a lot of the 381 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 1: cardinals have never met each other because they're coming from outposts. 382 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:37,199 Speaker 1: So it's almost like this is a clean slate handicapping opportunity, right, Like, 383 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 1: how would you even you say you're bet on anything? 384 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:41,640 Speaker 1: How do you even go about trying to figure out 385 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:45,360 Speaker 1: how to make an intelligent trade on this? 386 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 2: Well, it feels like the more I read about it 387 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,119 Speaker 2: feels like there are angles to attack with this. So 388 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 2: that's all I'm interested where Anthey's gonna say about it, 389 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 2: because it's like it seems like people who are smart 390 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 2: and like him have done a ton of research on 391 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 2: this all because I had no idea about out them, 392 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,439 Speaker 2: you know, having more guys outside of Europe, because what 393 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:04,919 Speaker 2: he just said is true to me, where it's just 394 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 2: all these old guys who are all in Europe picking 395 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,879 Speaker 2: their buddies to be the next pope. Like that's just 396 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 2: always the way it's always been. So this year is interesting, right. 397 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 2: We have a couple of long shot odds that I 398 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 2: can't wait to hear Anthony dive into. That's like, is 399 00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:19,439 Speaker 2: there a good value there? Like cause we're, like you 400 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 2: just said, it's a lot of unknown, Like there's a 401 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 2: lot of hearsay taking angles because you know, I mean 402 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 2: Matt Mitchell sent his stuff about guy's body weight and 403 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 2: his skinny popes, and it's like, I love it all. 404 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 2: It's people are just grasping his strolls here. But there's 405 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 2: value that you can you can take these weird angles 406 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 2: to make these weird bets, and I mean it could 407 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 2: be hitting a huge home run like there's some crazy 408 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 2: long shot odds here on some of these popes. 409 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 3: Thirty three to one. That were the odds on Francis 410 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:46,400 Speaker 3: in twenty thirteen at one book. 411 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 1: Well look that's the eifteen favorite, right, he was thirty 412 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 1: three to one because there had never. 413 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:53,520 Speaker 3: Been a pope from South America, So people were like, 414 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:55,959 Speaker 3: why would we why would we see this guy as 415 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 3: a favorite? 416 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 1: Ben Bendict was Benedict didn't have short odds, you know, 417 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 1: John Paul didn't have short odds. They never do, so 418 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 1: it's almost like you need to discount the top. 419 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 4: Of the board. 420 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 1: But for purposes of housekeeping, give us like the current 421 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:15,400 Speaker 1: odds and a little bit of background on each person 422 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,440 Speaker 1: so people can understand what they're looking at when they 423 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 1: go on to Kelshi and they see sort of some 424 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 1: of these markets. 425 00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'll say right now, I think there's a 426 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 3: clear top five consensus on who the people really should 427 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,439 Speaker 3: be here. The favorite, and he's been kind of the 428 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 3: favorite since the beginning is Pietro Powerline. 429 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 4: He's Italian. 430 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,719 Speaker 3: He would be considered kind of the moderate ish version, 431 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,920 Speaker 3: a continuation of Francis. The main reason he's seen is 432 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:41,680 Speaker 3: the favorite one. 433 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 4: He has the most. 434 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,199 Speaker 3: Connections to the other cardinals, right, he's kind of been 435 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 3: there the longest, kind of the elder statesman of the Vatican. 436 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:50,919 Speaker 3: And he was also the Secretary of State of the Vatican, 437 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,640 Speaker 3: which is like the deputy Pope that they call him, 438 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 3: and so he's, you know, very close to Francis, very 439 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,679 Speaker 3: close to how things work in the Vatican. 440 00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,160 Speaker 4: He's kind of the insider, moderate. 441 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,119 Speaker 3: Continuation choice if the Church could go that way, and 442 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 3: I don't think anybody would be surprised. The second favorite 443 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,679 Speaker 3: is Luis Antonio Tagle and he is they call him 444 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 3: the Asian Francis. He's from the Philippines. There's never been 445 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,359 Speaker 3: an Asian pope. He is a pretty progressive guy who 446 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 3: has spent time both at his outpost in the Global South, 447 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 3: which is I think an interesting part of this developing country, 448 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 3: kind of similar to what Francis's path was to the papacy. 449 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:27,640 Speaker 3: But he's also been in the Vatican too, so he's 450 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,679 Speaker 3: served in the Vatican in an administrative role as well. 451 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,920 Speaker 3: So he's kind of been around and he's at twenty 452 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,520 Speaker 3: five percent right now, Paroline's at thirty three. So those 453 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 3: are the two favorites I would say, the buzzy dark 454 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:43,439 Speaker 3: horse that everybody likes is Pierre Battista Pizza Bala, which 455 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,439 Speaker 3: is quite an Italian name. He's gotten a lot of 456 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 3: juice because he got put in a really tough situation. 457 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 3: He's a young guy who is now the first person 458 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 3: serving in the Catholic Church in Jerusalem, which he got 459 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 3: the job one week before the October seventh attack by Hamas, 460 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,520 Speaker 3: so he gets thrown into a war zone basically week 461 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,680 Speaker 3: one on the job and has made a lot of 462 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 3: positive headway and headlines and gained a lot of respect 463 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 3: I think on both sides of that war because of 464 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 3: how he's handled it. He even offered himself up as 465 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,639 Speaker 3: a hostage to say trade me for these hostages, I'll 466 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 3: you know, be taken in. And I think a lot 467 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,199 Speaker 3: of people like him. He is too young, though, and 468 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 3: that is one thing we've seen where like, if you're 469 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 3: really young, the pa Pole conclave is like, eh, you know, 470 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 3: we don't want you to serve for thirty years. We 471 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:34,960 Speaker 3: want like, you know, eight to ten years and then 472 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 3: we'll pick somebody else. Because if you pick somebody and 473 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:39,640 Speaker 3: he serves for a really long time and you don't 474 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:42,199 Speaker 3: like him, now the church has gone very far and 475 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,199 Speaker 3: very long without the next conclave, so it is a 476 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,680 Speaker 3: bit of a power grab. And then Matteo Zoopie. We 477 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 3: talked about Aerdo. He's on the mix too, Mateo Zoope. 478 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 3: It would be the progressive insider choice. He's the archbishop 479 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 3: of Bologna. He is a very close friend of Francis. 480 00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 3: They call him Don Matteo. He's well liked in those 481 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,640 Speaker 3: another insider choice as well. 482 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 1: Have you gone back and tried to calculate the average 483 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:12,400 Speaker 1: odds for I don't even know if there were odds 484 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:15,399 Speaker 1: for John Paul or how we would find them, but 485 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,119 Speaker 1: what were the average odds for Benedict? What were the 486 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:20,119 Speaker 1: what were the average what was the average ods for 487 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:25,280 Speaker 1: Benedict and Francis? And who's in that position? Because as 488 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:30,119 Speaker 1: we've said, the favorites never win and it ends up 489 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,680 Speaker 1: being someone who nobody was thinking about, which I think 490 00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:38,639 Speaker 1: is inherent in the process, right because they need a 491 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 1: two thirds majority and immediately people start jockeying and peeling 492 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,200 Speaker 1: off votes. And again all my knowledge about what happens 493 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:51,440 Speaker 1: in a conclave is coming from the movie Conclave, where 494 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 1: you know, like someone is politicking behind the scenes, so 495 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 1: who's in that sweet spot of odds that we should 496 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 1: be looking at. 497 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:05,439 Speaker 3: Yeah, so I have the last five papal elections and 498 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 3: shout out to the smoke filled room substack written by 499 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 3: Brendan Higgins. He has done some incredible research and honestly 500 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,800 Speaker 3: was a huge part of the piece writing this. So 501 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,439 Speaker 3: Francis was seen as thirty two to one. He was 502 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 3: not the favorite. Three to one was Benedict in two 503 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 3: thousand and five, he was the favorite twenty five percent. 504 00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 3: There were no odds listed for John Paul the Second 505 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 3: or first, so they weren't even on the board and 506 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 3: they got picked. And that was a weird conclave because 507 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,400 Speaker 3: John Paul the First gets elected, he dies almost immediately. 508 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 3: There was a lot of conspiracies about that. Then John 509 00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:42,600 Speaker 3: Paul the Second comes in right after him. He serves 510 00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:46,120 Speaker 3: for almost thirty years, so they were not on the board. 511 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 3: And then John the twenty third in nineteen fifty eight 512 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 3: he was the favorite. 513 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 4: So this list has ten names. 514 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,640 Speaker 3: On the board going back to fifteen oh three, which 515 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,200 Speaker 3: we have odds for. Only three of them were favorites, 516 00:27:57,920 --> 00:27:59,879 Speaker 3: and you know, three of the last four were not 517 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:04,639 Speaker 3: seen as top of the board picks I think if 518 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,199 Speaker 3: you're looking for the Benedict type candidate, or sorry, the 519 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:08,879 Speaker 3: Francis type candidate. 520 00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:10,000 Speaker 4: It's probably toag Lay. 521 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,200 Speaker 3: But the thing is, we all just saw the Francis 522 00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 3: thing happen, so now everybody's kind of hypothesizing that tog 523 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 3: Lay is the new Francis. So if this were twenty thirteen, 524 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 3: tog Lea's odds would have been what Francis's odds were. 525 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 3: But now we're kind of a little smarter to it 526 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,640 Speaker 3: that they might want to look forward. And their membership 527 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,679 Speaker 3: in Asia has been growing pretty big, pretty big in 528 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 3: the last ten years, so. 529 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 2: And the Philippines is like a fighting ground in religion, 530 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:32,200 Speaker 2: so I mean. 531 00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 4: That very Catholic too. 532 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so that's that's also another interesting part of 533 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 2: that where it's like that's that could give them a 534 00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 2: big edge in that region that they're looking for, because 535 00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 2: it's like they're not that they've given up on the 536 00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:49,080 Speaker 2: Western civilization like America and Canada, but you definitely see 537 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 2: they are attacking Catholic religion is really trying to spread 538 00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 2: I shouldn't say attacking spreading in Asia. 539 00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:00,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, and Africa, the two fastest growing Catholic outposts in 540 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,960 Speaker 3: the world. And so if the Church is saying, hey, 541 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 3: we want to, you know, think long term here, that 542 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:09,840 Speaker 3: could be a thinking, but it's it's still saying like, 543 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 3: we're still trying to make history here. By picking an 544 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:13,880 Speaker 3: African pope, by picking an Asian pope, you're still betting 545 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 3: on something that you know, probably makes a lot of 546 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:17,480 Speaker 3: people in that room a little uncomfortable. 547 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 1: I wonder why that is. They just pissed picked the 548 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 1: South American pope and that was historic, and now the 549 00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 1: makeup of the conclave is so different. And if you're 550 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 1: thinking practically, why wouldn't you choose a pope who can 551 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:42,440 Speaker 1: represent either either Asian or African nations where you are 552 00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,160 Speaker 1: the fastest growing, where there is a huge populace, where 553 00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 1: you have an opportunity to spread the Catholic religion, when 554 00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:55,040 Speaker 1: you're not making as many as much headway in Western civilization. 555 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 1: As Simon points out, I refer I prefer not to 556 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:04,720 Speaker 1: call it attacking the Asian and African continent, as Simon would, 557 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,320 Speaker 1: but maybe that's just his biologic. 558 00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 3: At the end of the day, the Church cares a 559 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,640 Speaker 3: lot about survival, it's about growth, it's about the future. 560 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I mean, so you're like, you're like 561 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,760 Speaker 2: shocked of the Catholic Church is an excepting of other cultures. 562 00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,120 Speaker 4: Oh my god, I'm not. 563 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 1: I'm not shocked at all. 564 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:26,760 Speaker 3: Well, that's what makes my favorite dark horse pick interesting. 565 00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:27,080 Speaker 1: Uh. 566 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 3: John John Mark Abilene He's French, serves in Marseilles. He's 567 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 3: the Archbishop of Marseille. The story is that he was 568 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,640 Speaker 3: Francis his favorite bishop. But he's kind of at the 569 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:40,640 Speaker 3: mix of all of this, right, He's European, but he's 570 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:44,800 Speaker 3: not Italian. He was born in Algeria, his family emigrated 571 00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 3: to Marseille. He's lived in Marseille forever. And Marseille is 572 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,440 Speaker 3: one of the most multicultural, kind of like melting pot 573 00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:52,880 Speaker 3: cities in the world, the way that that country and 574 00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 3: city has dealt with poverty, to migration, to assimilation. 575 00:30:58,120 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 4: So there's been so much there. 576 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 3: And he could end up being if if they say, hey, 577 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 3: we want a European again, but we don't necessarily want 578 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 3: to just hand it back to the Italians. He could 579 00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 3: end up being the compromised moderate candidate who emerges. And 580 00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:13,400 Speaker 3: he's at three percent right now, three percent on Kalshi. 581 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:16,280 Speaker 1: I think that's where I'm gonna go. 582 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 2: Yeah. 583 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,239 Speaker 4: I mean, the thing is, the French have always been 584 00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:21,720 Speaker 4: a little weird. They don't love the French. 585 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:25,280 Speaker 3: They do not love the French generally. 586 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 1: I don't know. It just seems to me like we 587 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:30,479 Speaker 1: got to take someone who's at the bottom of the 588 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:35,840 Speaker 1: percentage odds here and anyone who is being publicly discussed. 589 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:38,320 Speaker 1: What's that line in the story you had, anyone who 590 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 1: you know the next pope always walks out as a cardinal. Yes, 591 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,880 Speaker 1: So anyone who thinks they have the upper hand and 592 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:51,040 Speaker 1: is going into the conclave with the expectation that it 593 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:55,200 Speaker 1: could be them, let's take the top five off the board. 594 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:56,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, it doesn't happen that way. It trues. 595 00:31:57,880 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 1: They're going to be a cardinal. They're going to stay 596 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,360 Speaker 1: a cardinal. They're going to be really happy and inside 597 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,560 Speaker 1: it's going to be a knife fight when they get out, 598 00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:06,720 Speaker 1: and everyone is talking about it's going to be we 599 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,480 Speaker 1: found the right person, and we're super excited about it. 600 00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:13,480 Speaker 1: And the consensus was easy because the represents our values. 601 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,720 Speaker 1: It's exactly what it's going to be. All right, Anthony, 602 00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,840 Speaker 1: give me your plays and Simon, after this conversation, you 603 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 1: are a professional vetter who's got a keen insight into psyche. 604 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,600 Speaker 1: I want to hear what your play is and then 605 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 1: I will give you mine. 606 00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:30,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, so I did take some tog Lay. 607 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:35,200 Speaker 3: I do think that his popularity, his emerging markets kind 608 00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 3: of play is the most interesting angle of this entire 609 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 3: conclave because of his opportunity. I think Africa doesn't have 610 00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:47,600 Speaker 3: on paper the same consensus person that the whole continent 611 00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:50,240 Speaker 3: could rally around. They're pretty split and how they're broken 612 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 3: down from Robert Sarah who's more conservative, to Turksen, who's 613 00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,600 Speaker 3: a bit more moderate, to other cadidates who are more liberal. 614 00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 3: So there's more names that have emerged by But if 615 00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:05,040 Speaker 3: the Asian Bloc gets behind tog Lay early and ends 616 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,360 Speaker 3: up being the clear guy, then I think it could 617 00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 3: end up happening as early as today. 618 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:11,280 Speaker 4: To be honest with him. 619 00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:15,120 Speaker 3: But Aveleene's my favorite dark horse. I found the equivalent 620 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,560 Speaker 3: of twenty to one on him, so I took some 621 00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:21,400 Speaker 3: of that. I think once you get below that, you 622 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,120 Speaker 3: might as well just start drawing straws. I don't know 623 00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:27,080 Speaker 3: how you even come to certain conclusions on that on 624 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,360 Speaker 3: other candidates, but there's never been an American pope, so 625 00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,360 Speaker 3: I would not bet on the Americans, especially given the 626 00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 3: current geopolitical climate, but you never know. Ultimately, Aveline and 627 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 3: Toglay are the two I settled on. 628 00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:45,680 Speaker 1: Who were the who's even like the American candidate? 629 00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, there really aren't necessarily any At the top of 630 00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 3: the board. Raymond Burke was the number one, and he 631 00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 3: made headlines because he wanted to not allow I don't 632 00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:57,080 Speaker 3: want to get into politics, but he didn't want to 633 00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,280 Speaker 3: give Joe Biden communion, so like that. 634 00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:00,960 Speaker 4: Was the whole thing. He said, Like he's a like 635 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:01,520 Speaker 4: one percent. 636 00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,600 Speaker 3: Robert Privost is probably the other American at the board. 637 00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:05,320 Speaker 4: He's two percent. 638 00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,520 Speaker 3: So there's a couple of names, but not not not many. 639 00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:12,680 Speaker 1: All right, Simon, you've heard it. You're a handicapper. At 640 00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,560 Speaker 1: the end of the day, it's a blank slate. You're 641 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,919 Speaker 1: not coming to this with any edge. There's no there's 642 00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,799 Speaker 1: no power ranking you can make, there's no model you 643 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:26,759 Speaker 1: can do. Hearing everything you've heard, chatter you've had from 644 00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:31,279 Speaker 1: your Catholic Philly community, what do you got? 645 00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:33,839 Speaker 2: Well, first, I want to give prop Stanthony for just 646 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,239 Speaker 2: smoothly listening off all these guys' names, like it took 647 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:37,520 Speaker 2: me forever amazing. 648 00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:41,440 Speaker 3: I practiced this morning it because I did a lot 649 00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,200 Speaker 3: of reading for this, but I didn't do like that 650 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:46,479 Speaker 3: much listening, and so when you're writing the names, it's easy. 651 00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,400 Speaker 3: But then I was like, oh, shoot, like, let me 652 00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:52,840 Speaker 3: make sure I have Pierre Batista pizza bala pronounced correctly. Honestly, 653 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:54,439 Speaker 3: I watch a lot of soccer, so that that does 654 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:55,520 Speaker 3: help with the foreign names. 655 00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:59,879 Speaker 2: There you go, yeah, like again it's a rare betw 656 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:04,719 Speaker 2: were you know? Luis the guy from the Philippines. He's 657 00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:08,359 Speaker 2: the right age, like he's sixty seven, I think, so 658 00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,839 Speaker 2: to me, that's like what they're looking for. They want 659 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,879 Speaker 2: someone like right around that age. He's not the main guy, 660 00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:15,680 Speaker 2: which I feel like he nailed a chad where like 661 00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,879 Speaker 2: men inherently are weird and jealous creatures, and the guy 662 00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:21,319 Speaker 2: who is the man of the group, he might not 663 00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:22,640 Speaker 2: be the man to a lot of people, but they 664 00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,120 Speaker 2: act like it to his face and they wait for 665 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 2: these type of moments that in secrecy, they can take 666 00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,680 Speaker 2: away some of his power. This guy who thinks he's 667 00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,200 Speaker 2: the shit, It's like, no, you're not, and we're gonna 668 00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,080 Speaker 2: give it to someone else who's more deserving. So Yeah, 669 00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,759 Speaker 2: I just think that whole market, the fact that they're 670 00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:40,839 Speaker 2: trying to spread in Asia, that just makes more sense 671 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,400 Speaker 2: to me, the voting a guy who seems like a 672 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,439 Speaker 2: good guy, seems like he's well liked, and like, even 673 00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:48,279 Speaker 2: just reading about him before he came on today, it's 674 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,960 Speaker 2: like this guy is well traveled, like he's done a 675 00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:53,920 Speaker 2: lot in his years of service. So I didn't know. 676 00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:55,719 Speaker 2: I didn't realize his age. To me, that's the big 677 00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,320 Speaker 2: factory here is the fact that he is sixty seven 678 00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:00,279 Speaker 2: sixty eight, Like that's a big deal when they these 679 00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:02,920 Speaker 2: votes chads. So yeah, I'm going with the twenty percenter guy. 680 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:04,520 Speaker 2: Not the greatest odds, but I'll take it. 681 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:09,600 Speaker 1: I think I'm with Aveline. I feel like I feel 682 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:13,239 Speaker 1: like a he's also up there. I think he's what 683 00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:18,320 Speaker 1: sixty six sixty seven number one, number two. I think 684 00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,279 Speaker 1: if we're talking about and if we're talking about the 685 00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:29,200 Speaker 1: makeup of the conclave still heavily European and to them, 686 00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:35,000 Speaker 1: to them, France may be Asia, And what I mean 687 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:39,440 Speaker 1: is they could be looking at this as that Asia 688 00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,759 Speaker 1: and Africa might be one step too far. But we 689 00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:46,080 Speaker 1: get a guy from Marseille, and that is a melting pot, 690 00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:51,560 Speaker 1: and that it has been a town in France that 691 00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:54,160 Speaker 1: has been in the epicenter of what a lot of 692 00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:59,840 Speaker 1: has been igniting anti immigration sentiment in France and a 693 00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,399 Speaker 1: lot of conflict within the country. As you can see, 694 00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:07,359 Speaker 1: I'm very well read, and so I think this guy 695 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:13,960 Speaker 1: can represent something that is, you know, not ten degrees 696 00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:16,600 Speaker 1: off center, but maybe three degrees off center, and to 697 00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 1: what is ultimately a very conservative body. As no matter 698 00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:24,160 Speaker 1: how much we talk about liberal, moderate, progressive and conservative, 699 00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:28,080 Speaker 1: this is ultimately a very conservative body. I think he 700 00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:34,319 Speaker 1: represents change given what we've seen so far. If we're 701 00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,640 Speaker 1: playing a guy who's not even on the board basically, 702 00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:44,040 Speaker 1: who can reach a plurality of voters, who is moderate 703 00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:49,279 Speaker 1: but not progressive, can be a little bit different. He's 704 00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:55,840 Speaker 1: not Italian, but he's not African. I think it's him. 705 00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:58,640 Speaker 4: I would be fine with that. I got some action 706 00:37:58,719 --> 00:37:59,239 Speaker 4: down on him. 707 00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:04,239 Speaker 3: I said he was Francis's number one friend amongst the cardinals, amongst. 708 00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:07,239 Speaker 4: His favorite bishop. He seems like a really likable guy. 709 00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:12,080 Speaker 3: And the one big thing politically for him is he 710 00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:15,000 Speaker 3: has been very pro immigrant, but he's been against kind 711 00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,560 Speaker 3: of the idea of forcing mass migration onto cities, and 712 00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:19,600 Speaker 3: he said, like, look what's happened in Marseille when we've 713 00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:21,879 Speaker 3: tried these things. And the other big thing I think 714 00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:25,080 Speaker 3: that he's really hung his hat on is communications between faiths. 715 00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:27,120 Speaker 4: And we'll see what the church thinks about that. 716 00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:29,160 Speaker 3: But he lives in a city where that is kind 717 00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,799 Speaker 3: of expected and needed because of how diverse it is. 718 00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:35,560 Speaker 3: There's a big Muslim population as well in Marseille, and 719 00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:39,239 Speaker 3: so if that plays, if Catholicism is trying to look 720 00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:41,839 Speaker 3: toward more cooperation between. 721 00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:43,759 Speaker 4: Faiths, then he could end up being the guy. 722 00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,640 Speaker 1: What I like here is I paused to get a 723 00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:54,919 Speaker 1: reaction from Anthony and Simon, two Catholic raised boys from 724 00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:59,080 Speaker 1: the Philly area, and the first response is Anthony, I 725 00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,200 Speaker 1: like that. And my head I was thinking, oh, is 726 00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:01,760 Speaker 1: it Catholic? 727 00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:02,560 Speaker 4: He likes that? 728 00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,439 Speaker 1: And then the next line was I got some money 729 00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:10,480 Speaker 1: on that. So I'm glad to see that during this enlightened, thoughtful, 730 00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:18,840 Speaker 1: culturally contextualized conversation, your priorities, Anthony de Bundo remained the same. Anthony, Listen, 731 00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:21,680 Speaker 1: you did a great job breaking that down. You did 732 00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:25,560 Speaker 1: a great job writing that story on the Ringer. It's fantastic. 733 00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,400 Speaker 1: People should go check it out link in the description 734 00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:33,520 Speaker 1: for both YouTube and the podcast link. So in the 735 00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:37,279 Speaker 1: podcast page, well well done, We're going to find out 736 00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:39,040 Speaker 1: by the time the next episode airs, We're going to 737 00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:40,759 Speaker 1: know who the Pope is and I'm super excited to 738 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:44,760 Speaker 1: see what the final resolution, what the white smoke says. 739 00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:48,279 Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of 740 00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,439 Speaker 1: the Favorites Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube page. Don't forget. 741 00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:56,000 Speaker 1: Also subscribe at Real Chad Milman, download us some Spotify, 742 00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,520 Speaker 1: Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, 743 00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:00,879 Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is gain. 744 00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:02,400 Speaker 1: Until next time, Love you. 745 00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,600 Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 746 00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,840 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 747 00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:18,759 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 748 00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:19,600 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler