WEBVTT - 8am-9am ET: Gartman & Brown 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:06.800 This is Bloomberg Surveillance. We want to give that credit. 0:00:06.880 --> 0:00:09.080 They have come a long way from where they were 0:00:09.119 --> 0:00:11.400 in the yearly nineties when they didn't even communicate anything 0:00:11.440 --> 0:00:15.480 to the market. Begin remains the most important single occasion currency, 0:00:15.680 --> 0:00:18.800 that together with Aussie which I think is the proxy 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:21.880 for all of Asia's growth ultimately, and we still are 0:00:21.880 --> 0:00:23.680 going to have a crisis at some point. It'll be 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:25.480 a big one. And that's where the new tools and 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:28.000 dot Frank the title to the Resolution Authority, that's where 0:00:28.040 --> 0:00:31.240 they come in. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:36.000 of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning everyone, 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:39.559 Marrow Draggy shakes markets. He moves markets and it is 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:43.920 risk on. Futures up twenty JABB futures up one sixty three, 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:47.400 the Euro weaker. What good coverage this morning. Will continue 0:00:47.400 --> 0:00:51.279 that into this eight o'clock our bonus round, joining us 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:53.880 Dennis Gartment, who has a few opinions on as we 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:56.200 love to have Dennis Gartment on the the hate me. 0:00:56.320 --> 0:00:58.880 The hate mail meter lights up like a like a 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:03.600 candle when we have Gartment on this is well, they 0:01:03.640 --> 0:01:06.360 love Dennis, they hate me, right we'll get Dennis Gartman 0:01:06.440 --> 0:01:10.560 here in a moment. Bloomberg Surveillance this morning marched by 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:16.039 cone Resnick Accounting, Tax Advisory. As economic policy changes, so 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:20.480 do business decisions. Speak to the experts at cone RESNUC 0:01:20.560 --> 0:01:23.880 for the forward thinking advice you need. Find out more 0:01:23.880 --> 0:01:27.280 at cone Resnick dot com. O h n R e 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:31.120 zy n I c K cone Resnick dot com. Dennis 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:33.200 Gartman joins us out. Dennis, I want to put this 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:37.759 in the in the context of the title of Larry 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:40.360 Lindsay's new book, You Give It a Massive Rave Review, 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:45.600 Conspiracies of the ruling Class. Mario Draggy is part of 0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:51.160 the ruling class. What's his conspiracy to jump start his Europe? 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:57.160 He has leaked full hog into into the market this morning. 0:01:57.640 --> 0:02:00.320 In case people haven't heard yet, what they have done 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:03.760 in Europe this morning is cut all three of the 0:02:03.760 --> 0:02:07.560 base rates in UH by the ECB. More importantly, have 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:14.080 raised the sixty billion euro uh quantitative easing each month 0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:17.920 to eighty billion, And I think probably most importantly, have 0:02:18.320 --> 0:02:21.880 allowed the purchases of corporate debt for the simple reason 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:24.519 that they're running out of sovereign debt that they can buy, 0:02:24.600 --> 0:02:27.240 and they have no choice but to expand reserves by 0:02:27.280 --> 0:02:30.840 buying corporate debt. The Euro is getting slammed as we talk, 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:35.040 treadty five right now, down from one o nine actually 0:02:35.080 --> 0:02:37.959 trading one tena one time earlier. This found a bid, 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:40.840 I mean, is where we're going to? Dennis and Mike 0:02:40.919 --> 0:02:43.360 McKee might jump in here with Mr Gartman. Neil Dutta 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:46.960 just publishes March and April are a no go for 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:50.480 the US Central Bank, while June is a live possibility. 0:02:50.560 --> 0:02:55.200 Michael Dennis. The real question is obviously Mario dragging went 0:02:55.639 --> 0:02:59.080 uh full Monty as Brunelo Rosa said, or kitchen sink 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:02.080 as Jamie McGee or and Jeff Black have both tweeted 0:03:02.120 --> 0:03:05.240 this morning. So you get this reaction in the markets, 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:07.560 But does it last? Is there going to be enough 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:09.680 stimulus so the market is going to see enough in 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:13.639 the package over the next couple of weeks to continue 0:03:13.680 --> 0:03:17.120 pushing down on the Euro. Yes, of course they will. 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:19.359 I think Joggy has made it abundantly clear if this 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:21.960 is not the last move he's going to make. He 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:25.440 has thrown in completely with those who are expansionary, I 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:30.000 think justifiably. So you still have unemployment rates among youths 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:33.280 in Spain, Italy, across all of Europe. I don't think 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:35.080 he had any choice. I think he's done exactly what 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:37.560 he needed to do. It will be, or should be, 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:41.000 highly inflationary over a period of time, but the deflationary 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:43.680 forces are still so extant that he had no choice 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:46.080 other than to go full monthy. I think he's done 0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:48.880 the right thing, as others may argue, but it will 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:51.720 continue to be I think manifestly bears of the euro 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:56.560 par is on its way. Do we see contraction in 0:03:56.720 --> 0:04:00.280 spreads among the Eurozone countries? Is this going to reach 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:05.880 out to the periphery? As to that that question, I'm 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:09.200 not quite sure. I understand, well, a lot of what 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:12.640 the ECB has done hasn't helped the peripheral countries in 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:17.119 the year Zone as much because their rates are higher. Yes, okay, 0:04:17.120 --> 0:04:19.880 I understand. Yeah, of course it should narrow those spreads. 0:04:19.880 --> 0:04:21.960 It has to, and it it really would be mathematically 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:25.240 impossible to do otherwise. So the answer is, yes, it will. 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:27.680 I think it is going to be highly inflationary. I 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:29.880 think is what he should have done. I'm I'm I'm 0:04:29.920 --> 0:04:32.040 full in with what he's done today. They those on 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:34.240 the far light may take me to tap board, but 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:36.080 I don't think you had any Okay, So Dennis, you 0:04:36.120 --> 0:04:38.280 go down to your North Carolina state, you speak to 0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:41.760 their economics honors program at the Pool Management Hall and 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:44.720 all that. None of this is in the textbooks you are, 0:04:44.800 --> 0:04:49.520 Michael McKee, study none of it. It is que I'm sorry, folks, 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:53.320 Rubini absolutely nailed this. And I'm not even gonna pretend 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:56.920 to fake. Is a wonderful accent. Quee one, que two? 0:04:57.200 --> 0:05:00.760 Where the hell are we in the count of Quee's this? 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:03.080 This is three. We're going to four, We'll go to twelve, 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:05.880 We'll go to fourteen. What is the price of that? 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:07.760 I knew you were gonna say that. What's the price 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:11.040 of that? Mr? I'm not sure. I don't know. They 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:14.520 hope it shall be an inflation. Everybody wants to see 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:17.800 an inflation of two or more, whether it's the ECB, 0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:22.599 whether it's the Bank of Japan, whether it's the nobody's 0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:25.120 getting in Dennis. I got Olivia Blanchard on the program 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:27.880 this morning saying, look, there's no fire in house. There 0:05:28.120 --> 0:05:32.120 is economic growth. There is there is real economy, signs 0:05:32.120 --> 0:05:35.640 of good in the US and in Europe. What's the 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:40.400 y here to jump start the macro position other than 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:44.400 the jump started for the conspiracy of the ruling class. Well, 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:46.440 I'm not sure that I agree that there that there 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:49.120 are signs in Europe of economic strength. There are signs 0:05:49.120 --> 0:05:54.240 in the United States, perhaps of modest, slow, laborious one 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:56.800 to two GDP growth, But I'm not sure that I 0:05:56.800 --> 0:05:59.080 see the same things in Europe. And I think that 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:02.159 drug has Actus really done the correct thing. If you 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:04.919 look at the unemployment rates that exist, especially among the 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:08.960 youth in in in in Europe, there is an ample 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:12.000 supply of of of labor to be gotten. There is 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:16.680 no inflation to be found. I think he had no choice. Now, 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:20.039 he had no choice. He did the right thing. It 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:24.160 is affecting markets, but is it going to produce growth 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:28.920 and inflation? Will it work? That's another question for another time. 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:31.839 Hasn't it diet? Who one would hope that it works? Certainly, 0:06:31.880 --> 0:06:35.000 he hopes that it works. Certainly everybody expects that it 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:38.320 should engender in inflation at some point in the future. Certainly, 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:42.240 most certainly most economists would suspect that that kind of 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:45.400 helicopter drop of money will result in some sort of 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:48.960 economic growth. Time only shall tell. But could he should he? 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:52.080 Let's let's do what the lawyers say and go reductive 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:54.479 out absurdum, let's go the other direction. Should he have 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:57.840 tightened monetary policy? Well, of course not. His only course 0:06:57.880 --> 0:06:59.840 of action was to do what he's done today. And 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:02.800 this is just this is que three on its way 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:05.400 to QUEI fourteen. Whether we like it or not, that's 0:07:05.440 --> 0:07:07.680 the reality, and as traders, that's how we have to deal. 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:12.640 Does this make you long of stocks? You really have 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:14.800 no choice. This this this should have to make you 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:17.000 long of stocks. What it does make me is short 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:20.040 of the euro and long of gold. That that that I, 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:23.520 without equivocation, is where I wish to be. Should it 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:26.280 make you long of stocks, you really do. Clearly you 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:28.520 don't wish to be short of them in this environment, 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:33.120 and probably you should be long with them. I can't 0:07:33.120 --> 0:07:36.080 imagine doing Gartman's job or anybody like Gartman right now. 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:40.600 I'm figuring out so quickly what it means. Um at 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:43.800 this point, what does it mean in other parts of 0:07:43.840 --> 0:07:46.840 the world. I think it means that the bank in 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:49.200 Japan has has no choice but to follow up the 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:52.120 bank exactly he has has done. They don't have any choice. 0:07:52.200 --> 0:07:54.600 I mean, it's a quey war almost. I mean, what 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:57.480 is the correlation of our banks right now? They've all 0:07:57.480 --> 0:08:00.600 they're all I'm sorry, every bank is reacting off every 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:04.240 other one. Right, Yes, maybe maybe it is a problem 0:08:04.280 --> 0:08:08.920 of great communications. In the twenty five years ago when 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:12.480 I first, when I had begun to get somewhat smart 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:15.440 in this business, having started forty years ago, even then 0:08:15.640 --> 0:08:17.880 you would not have known what the ECB had done 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:20.880 for several days. Now we have to make decisions as 0:08:20.880 --> 0:08:22.600 to what the ECB has done in the course of 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:24.760 ten minutes and decide what it means for the next 0:08:24.840 --> 0:08:27.960 four months. The best I can say is drawing upon history. 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:31.280 What they've done today is just the first another step 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:33.920 in a long step of pot processes. Just joining us 0:08:33.920 --> 0:08:36.120 Tennis Gartment the garment letter, Dennis, you've only got you 0:08:36.200 --> 0:08:38.920 for two blocks today, not three. Let me get to gold, 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:41.920 which is so important. You keep your gold view in 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:46.000 those currencies I mean Euro moving to parody that gives 0:08:46.000 --> 0:08:49.040 you some support. Here update us on the Gartment gold call. 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:52.959 I have been long of gold and yen denominated terms 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:55.800 for over two years and it's been a wonderful trade. 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:58.440 If you have been long of golden dollar terms for 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:01.920 two years, uh year in the poorhouse, you don't feel 0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:04.720 all that good. I've been long of gold in euro 0:09:04.800 --> 0:09:08.400 denominated terms for about almost a year. That feels great. 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:11.120 It feels better this morning than it did before. But 0:09:11.200 --> 0:09:14.360 it's making new highs. I see no reason to change. 0:09:14.520 --> 0:09:17.320 The fundamentals have gotten stronger, not weaker, in the course 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:20.040 of the last ten minutes. The technicals are getting stronger, 0:09:20.120 --> 0:09:21.840 not weaker, in the course of the last ten minutes. 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:24.160 And what I find interesting is few people wish to 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:27.480 join me on the same trade. What's the best trade 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:32.360 right now for you long gold in euro terms? As 0:09:32.400 --> 0:09:34.719 of what's especially with what's happened in the last ten 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:36.920 minutes with the e c B, it's been a great position. 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:39.120 I see no reason to change. And the only thing 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:41.360 I wish to do is by is to do more. 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:43.760 I'll pay a lot more attention to what gold is 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:47.119 doing in dollar terms, uh perhaps in the next several 0:09:47.200 --> 0:09:49.000 days and a half. In the past and if you 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:51.640 were able to get gold back about twelve fifty five 0:09:51.720 --> 0:09:54.560 or so in dollars, my propensity to add to my 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:58.160 euro gold trade and my end gold trade becomes even stronger. 0:09:58.480 --> 0:10:00.600 Let's come back with Dennis Garban right up, as we 0:10:00.640 --> 0:10:03.720 are over market reaction off of major Mike. Did you 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:07.880 expect this? Uh, nobody expected him to do as much 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:12.720 as he did. Lots of kitchens sinc photographs out on 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:15.360 Twitter this morning. Yeah. Some people thought one, some people 0:10:15.360 --> 0:10:18.680 thought the other. But instead he chooses the kitchen sink. 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:21.520 This is important, whether you agree or disagree. Dennis Gartman 0:10:21.600 --> 0:10:24.479 will continue with us. We will have a spirited conversation 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:28.679 on the US market. Maybe will also touch on politics 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:31.240 as well once in a while. Mr Gartman writes about 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:35.360 US politics on the back end of his coveted note. 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:40.160 Futures up, seventeen down, futures up. One Gartman's euro linked 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:43.120 to gold one O eight sixty two one O eight 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:46.120 sixty two in a good hundred and thirty eight pips 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:52.760 as well. West Texas intermediat thirty three time not to 0:10:52.840 --> 0:10:54.480 check in with Michael Barr and get the latest world 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:57.080 in national headlines. Michael, Mike, Tom, thank you very much. 0:10:57.240 --> 0:10:59.640 It's a memory stick that is believed to contain the 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:04.160 real names and telephone numbers of Islamic state fighters. Germany's 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:07.880 federal police say they are evaluating files containing personal data 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:11.360 on members of the Islamic State group. Britain Sky News 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:15.479 reports that obtained about twenty two thousand Islamic State files 0:11:15.520 --> 0:11:18.800 on the stick stolen from the head of Islamic States 0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:23.640 Internal Security Police by a disillusioned former fighter. Hillary Clinton 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:25.840 and Bernie Sanders have been trying to make the case 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:29.880 that they would be better presidential choices for American Hispanics. 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:34.800 The two Democratic presidential candidates on voting records, on immigration. 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:37.720 We're a major focus of last night's debate in Miami. 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:41.640 The Republican presidential candidates will debate tonights in Miami as well. 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:44.840 Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by our 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:47.920 twenty four hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty news 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:51.440 bureaus from around the world. Now Michael Barr, Mike to Michael, 0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:54.320 thanks so much, stay with us in twenty minutes. What 0:11:54.559 --> 0:11:59.359 was to be important is now of global impact drugs 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:02.360 press kind friends, we'll have that an interpretation for you. 0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:07.240 I'm Bloomberg Surveillance. This news update brought to you by 0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:09.520 Tito Computing, a new kind of I T solutions company 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:12.199 for workflow, mobility and infrastructure. Let them explain how their 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:14.559 expertise can help you gain greater business value. Because the 0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:23.480 t too computing dot com for more information global business 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:26.480 news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg dot com 0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:29.559 the radio plus mobile lap and on your radio. This 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:33.679 is a Bloomberg business flash and I'm Karen Moscow. US 0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:36.400 dot index Future has jumped after the European Central Bank 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:39.559 delivered a bigger than expected boost to its monetary stimulus. 0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:41.720 Let's go to the first Word breaking news desk for 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:46.080 today's morning call. Here's Bill Maloney. Bill, good morning, Karen. 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:49.800 That's right. US futures have extended their gains. ECB cut 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:53.120 all rates and Kelley was boosted to eighty billion euros 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:55.520 a month. If youre just currently hired by a hundred 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:58.360 and twenty three points. Sup's gained seventeen and as the 0:12:58.480 --> 0:13:01.600 futures rise by forty one and US tendial at one 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:04.800 point eight eight percent, and up markets are extending their 0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:08.440 games as well. Italy rises three point two percent on 0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:11.120 the Economic Fund eight thirty. Dragg holds his press conference 0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:14.320 and US initial jobs claims and it's on thirty natural 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:18.000 gas storage change. In dealing news, NAZAC buys Deutsche Bors's 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:21.640 options market for one point one billion, and regarding Earns 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:25.040 this morning, Dollar General beat shares a higher pre market 0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:29.960 and United Technologies reaffirmed sixteen and Q one forecasts. Finally, 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:33.160 some of your Walshet upgrades and downgrades, Expedia raised, overweighted, 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:36.160 Piper and facts set cut the cell over at ubs 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:38.840 live from the first Breaking news desk Gone, Bill Maloney, Karen, 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:42.319 thanks billan to hear live breaking news of your Bloomberg 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:45.000 type squaw go on your terminal. Let's ask you a 0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:48.160 wuk go and that's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.480 Mike Karn, thanks so much Bloomberg Surveillance this morning. Rush 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:56.240 you Bay Investco. Have you considered all of your investment alternatives? 0:13:56.600 --> 0:14:00.280 Non traditional st classes and strategies may help you achieve 0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:05.439 your goals? Find out more at investco dot com slash alternatives. 0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:07.600 Denis Gartment with it. One of the great things about 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:10.040 Dennis Gartment. I've said this before. He's one of the 0:14:10.080 --> 0:14:14.640 few people with the courage to actually publish his successes 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:17.439 and failures in the back of his newsletter. I love 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:19.960 to say that, Dennis, to bust your chops. But but 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:24.040 the thing that's cool here is you link technical with 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:28.640 fundamental with your economics as well. The arch question now 0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:33.440 is commodity and oil bottom. Jeff de Graf was brilliant 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:37.520 yesterday talking about the search for catharsis I haven't seen it. 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:41.280 Do I need a cathartic event to scream oil bottom? 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:45.520 I think more than that, you need a non cathartic event. 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:47.440 I think you need the most boring thing of all. 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:51.040 I pay attention. I was taught years ago when I 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:53.960 began my career in the early seventies in the cotton market, 0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:58.320 to watch the term watch now one commodity future trades 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:01.680 relative to another, and that knowledge of the term structure 0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:04.280 really has carried over into the energy market. We have 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.800 watched as the carrying charge the contango. I hate to 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:11.320 get to esoteric, but the contango for the one year 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:13.760 had gone out as far as nine dollars per barrel 0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:16.680 when spot w T I was trading around twenty six. 0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:20.960 That contango has narrowed into about five dollars. Crude, for 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:23.640 lack of a better term, is less aggressive in bidding 0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:27.239 to go into storage. It's telling you that informed money 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:30.040 has really said the lows have been put into crude. 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:32.240 Twenty six is not going to be taken out on 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:34.960 the down side. But at the same point, it's gonna 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:37.600 be very difficult to get the w t I SPOT 0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:41.479 w t I above forty dollars because if the contango continues, 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:44.720 forty dollars in SPOT gives you about forty five dollars 0:15:44.720 --> 0:15:47.600 out one year. And I'm telling you, at forty five dollars, 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:50.080 those down in the those up in the back, and 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:52.800 those down in Midland, Texas are making a lot of money. 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:55.120 They can hedge and be profitable. So it's gonna be 0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:58.360 difficult to get SPOT crewede about forty dollars because I 0:15:58.400 --> 0:16:00.360 got like eight ways to go with this, and we 0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:02.640 don't have the time this morning. Who's our next guest? 0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:08.400 Mario dragging Mario the press conference? A number of things 0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:10.680 we've talked about a minute that he that have not 0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:13.760 have been answered yet. Uh, Dennis, as long as we 0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:15.520 have just a few moments with you, let me hit 0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:19.280 on what you were saying about soft commodities El Nino fading. 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:23.720 There's talk of La Nina coming in, which seems to 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:28.520 historically raise the price of those commodities. Is it time 0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:31.720 to invest? What do you want to do? I think 0:16:31.800 --> 0:16:35.200 that the lows have been seen in the commodity markets generally, 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:37.960 whether it's in the soft whether it's in the grains, 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:42.640 whether it's in crude oil, um, and and perhaps maybe 0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:45.920 even sort of kind of gently, maybe even in the 0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:49.320 most barrish of all commodities, that gas. The era of 0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:51.680 being or the age or the year or the two 0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:54.560 years of being short of commodities is probably behind us. 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:56.960 And I think that the actions taken by the e 0:16:57.040 --> 0:17:01.120 c B this morning simply promote the notion that commodity 0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:03.320 prices are likely to be stronger and not weaker going 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:05.879 forward in the final time we've got with you. And 0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:08.760 I say this with immense respect for Martin's wage. We 0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:14.160 lost him weight man. You know Marty's wag. Don't fight 0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:17.440 the Fed, don't fight the e c B, don't fight 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:21.600 the bles. Forget about the esoteric net gas short. What's 0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:27.159 the gartment advice for people, basic people out there to 0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:32.880 invest with these central banks as Marty's wage titans, as 0:17:32.920 --> 0:17:35.800 long as the as long as the central bank wind 0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:38.040 is at your back, and it is and they're not 0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:41.080 going to stop anytime soon. You're better off being long 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:43.320 than you are being short. You're better off erring on 0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:45.399 the side of being bullish than you are on the 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:47.600 side of being barished, and you're probably going to be 0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:51.560 better off owning basic commodities. My my old mine is 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:53.560 I'd like to buy the things that if I dropped 0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:58.280 them on my foot will hurt I e. Aluminum steel, iron, ore, 0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:03.040 trains hips, big things, easy things, the things that go 0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:05.680 along with economic growth. Those are the things that I 0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:09.119 think would make sense. Plus there's dividends to be gotten 0:18:09.119 --> 0:18:12.200 from them. So if you're going with the military authorities 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:15.080 giving you winded your back, oh those things right, Dennis, 0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:18.480 one minute left. You're a victim of the South. You 0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:22.120 live somewhere near a glorious golf course. I get that. 0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:25.800 As we go to Florida, and as you write about politics, 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:28.600 I don't want your opinion on this talent. Does Mr 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:35.560 Trump have an economic policy you've discerned, Yes, protectionism, yes, lunacy. 0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:39.120 Yes he's wrong, and I'm I'm I'm of the hope 0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:41.480 that he is not the nominee and the Republican Party, 0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:44.119 But at this point I'm about to give up that hope. 0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:51.840 The only move to Canada. Oh, of course, very hard 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:56.320 to play all excepting Vancouver, Dennis, thank you so much, tennis, 0:18:56.440 --> 0:19:01.600 gartment golf. Here's the surveillance breaks to listen today. Chapman 0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:06.280 will not move Togeada, all right, Samaro, Draggy throws the 0:19:06.440 --> 0:19:09.320 kitchen sink at financial markets, and Tom look at what 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:13.520 is happening to European banks. Deutsche Bank up four and 0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:17.480 a half percent, Associated General up five percent, BNP Parabout 0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:21.359 up four point four percent, the Italian bank UniCredit up 0:19:21.520 --> 0:19:27.120 seven point two percent. Even Bonco Detach, the troubled Italian bank, 0:19:27.280 --> 0:19:30.000 is up four point seven percent. Now, the movement that 0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:32.159 we see, we knew it would be important, but it 0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:36.080 always can surprise. We got the full surprise this morning, 0:19:36.119 --> 0:19:38.720 and there will be headlines. What we will do for you, 0:19:38.920 --> 0:19:41.879 We will give you the headlines. We will then go 0:19:42.080 --> 0:19:44.840 into the next phase of headlines, which will be difficult 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:49.320 questions and is considered answers. They always in every case 0:19:49.440 --> 0:19:53.920 move markets. The yen starkly weaker this morning one nineteen 0:19:54.000 --> 0:19:57.320 as well. US futures up sixteen, Town futures one two. 0:19:57.520 --> 0:20:06.399 Next the Draggy press conference coming up there with all 0:20:06.480 --> 0:20:08.360 due respect, highlight brought you by land Rover. If it's 0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:09.680 in your nature to cast off the every Day and 0:20:09.680 --> 0:20:11.920 Seek adventure. The discovery support was built to help your search. 0:20:12.000 --> 0:20:14.320 Visit land Rover twice d dot com for special offers 0:20:14.400 --> 0:20:16.760 during the only Adventure Sales event. Land Romer above and 0:20:16.800 --> 0:20:27.760 Beyond broadcasting live to New York, Gloomberg eleventh, Ryo to Washington, 0:20:27.840 --> 0:20:32.840 d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve Honors to San Francisco, 0:20:33.000 --> 0:20:37.000 Bloomberg nine, to the Country series Exam Channel one nine 0:20:37.359 --> 0:20:40.800 and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus Appen Bloomberg 0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:45.520 dot com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning again, Say thirty. 0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:48.280 I'm Michael McKee along with Tom Keen. Our economic indicators 0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:50.480 are brought to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. When it's 0:20:50.480 --> 0:20:52.560 time to change the conversation, talk with a broker deal 0:20:52.680 --> 0:20:54.560 r R I A that's ready to listen, call eight 0:20:54.640 --> 0:20:57.920 six two three six three eight or visit Commonwealth dot 0:20:58.000 --> 0:21:01.120 com to learn more. Here's an incredible number of Annie 0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:03.560 del Juday said the first Word desk with the jobless 0:21:03.560 --> 0:21:08.080 claims figures. Michael jobless claims just above a four decade low, 0:21:08.160 --> 0:21:10.800 close to a four decade low, falling last week by 0:21:10.880 --> 0:21:14.000 eighteen thousand and two hundred fifty nine thousand, more than 0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:17.480 Wall Street forecast. Again, jobless claims last week close to 0:21:17.560 --> 0:21:20.920 a four decade low two hundred fifty nine thousand. Let's 0:21:20.960 --> 0:21:23.400 go back to New York, all right, Vinnie del Judais, 0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:26.480 jobless claims in the US near a four decade low. 0:21:27.000 --> 0:21:29.879 Tell me the news is all good for markets. This 0:21:30.000 --> 0:21:34.200 morning Olive Blonchard was heated. He's never heated, but within 0:21:34.280 --> 0:21:39.359 the grace. Professor Blanchard states that things are better than 0:21:39.440 --> 0:21:42.840 good in some of these economies. There is exact quote, 0:21:43.200 --> 0:21:46.359 there is no fire in the house, not at the moment, 0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:52.680 not like the world is exploding with growth, but it 0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:56.600 is certainly better then maybe a lot of people in 0:21:56.640 --> 0:21:59.880 the markets think. As I mentioned, we're watching European Bank 0:22:00.400 --> 0:22:02.840 really really move. The stock six centered is up seven 0:22:02.880 --> 0:22:05.800 points now more than two percent, Deutsche Bank up six 0:22:05.880 --> 0:22:09.719 point two percent, sock Gen six point two percent, uh 0:22:10.080 --> 0:22:13.440 Un Credit eight and a half percent. And that is 0:22:13.520 --> 0:22:16.960 on the back of the ECB's action to not only 0:22:17.520 --> 0:22:20.600 cut all three of its major rates, the deposit rate 0:22:20.640 --> 0:22:23.760 down to negative forty basis points, but also increase q 0:22:24.000 --> 0:22:27.000 E by another twenty billion euros to eight billion. We're 0:22:27.040 --> 0:22:29.399 waiting for Mario drug He Brendan Brown with us, Honored 0:22:29.440 --> 0:22:31.200 to have him with us. He has thought long and 0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:36.840 hard um about eurodynamics. In Global Dynamics of Banking two 0:22:36.920 --> 0:22:40.159