1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:21,280 Speaker 1: on applecar player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 2: We're gonna start with basics here right now. Stephanie Roth 7 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:33,240 Speaker 2: is with Wolf and she's just absolutely exquisite in her 8 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 2: rigor about the construction of a given ninety days of 9 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 2: American economic might, and I got some American economic might 10 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 2: with you, Stephanie, But they also got a payroll call 11 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,840 Speaker 2: a seventy thousand who's the horse and who's the cart? 12 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 2: The economy or the job economy. 13 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 3: Seventy thousand looks kind of weak, but that's been counting 14 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 3: for hurricanes and strikes, which are pretty significant. 15 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 2: So like, throw this, Can I out work Friday? Wait, 16 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:00,120 Speaker 2: it's Paul's turn out. 17 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 4: To work Friday. 18 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 3: Here's when you'd have to work on Friday. So yeah, 19 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 3: we're below consensus on the actual headline number. We think 20 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 3: the underlying trend in perils is one hundred and fifty thousand, 21 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 3: So totally fine. Here's where you'd have to work on 22 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 3: Friday is if it comes in strong, because in that 23 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 3: case we've got strength, even given we have hurricanes and 24 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 3: strikes hitting the numbers. So that's where it could become 25 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 3: a bit asymmetric. 26 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 5: All right, So but let's strip that away a little bit. 27 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 5: How do you feel about the US labor market? How 28 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 5: strong is it? How some people are saying, hey, we're fine, 29 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 5: four point one percent on plant whatever, but some others say, boy, 30 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 5: that recent trends are a little testy. How do you 31 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 5: feel about the US labor market? 32 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 3: It's kind of wild because we swung from concerns about 33 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 3: hard landing to then concerns around okay, fine, we were 34 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 3: having a soft landing. Then it shifted all of a 35 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,199 Speaker 3: sudden to no landing. And the result is probably somewhere 36 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 3: in the middle. The economy is doing just fine. We 37 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 3: have GDP which is gonna print somewhere close to three percent, 38 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 3: and the labor market is hanging in there. You have 39 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 3: some upward pressure on the unemployment rate, but it shouldn't 40 00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 3: be that significant. And especially if we do end up 41 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 3: with the Trump presidency, he's going to be cutting off 42 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 3: a lot of those immigration flows, which will then put 43 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 3: a little bit of downward pressure on the unemployment rate 44 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 3: versus what would otherwise be the case. 45 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 5: So how are you framing out this selection? Yeh, I'm 46 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 5: sure that's the majority of the calls you get from 47 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 5: your clients. What's kind of your response to, you know, hey, Stephanie, 48 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 5: how's this going to play out? 49 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 3: So in the first year it may not actually be 50 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 3: as different depending on the presidential candidate. Come twenty twenty six, 51 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 3: that's where it becomes a very big difference because TCJA, 52 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:31,639 Speaker 3: the Trump tax cuts expired at the end of twenty 53 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 3: twenty five. Okay, so that's going to be where the 54 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 3: rubber leaves the road in terms of the difference between 55 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 3: the candidates with this policy. 56 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 2: Wonk, Stephanie roth of Wolf completely off. 57 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 4: Your remit, but I'm going there. 58 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 2: Can we have text modification lessening of any type. Given 59 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 2: where the deficits are given eight hundred billion interest expense, 60 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 2: how do you dovetail those two together? 61 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 3: I mean, it's kind of it's kind of wild, and 62 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 3: really either it is going to increase the deficit. So 63 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 3: regardless of this ocasion, we're gonna it's gonna get worse. 64 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 3: By the dollar. The US is a reserve currency, so 65 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:10,919 Speaker 3: we have the ability to increase our deficits relatively sound like. 66 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 4: Very icon green and berkey. 67 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,839 Speaker 2: Stephanie Roth, I'm looking at the what's happened, folks since 68 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,839 Speaker 2: I've not been here? The real yield has exploded out 69 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:21,079 Speaker 2: to two point zero zero percent. The price of all 70 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 2: this is money's more expensive, right. 71 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:27,959 Speaker 3: Yes, So we attribute the move since the beginning of August, 72 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 3: which is kind of when you started to see rates 73 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:31,799 Speaker 3: back up. We tribute roughly half of it to better 74 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 3: economic growth and half of it to the election. Really 75 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 3: Trumpbod's starting to rise. Base case is that if Trump 76 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 3: does win, the ten year will back up towards at 77 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 3: least four fifty. If Harris wins, you can actually see 78 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 3: a little bit of a of a downshift and yield 79 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 3: something towards four percent. 80 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 4: Tariffs do they work? How do you? 81 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 5: What's your view on tariffs because that seems to be 82 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 5: a discussion point here in this election. 83 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 3: I'm a big fan of free trade, so not a 84 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 3: big fan of them, and I also have to say 85 00:03:57,880 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 3: it has to be advertised as such, right, it's a 86 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 3: tax the consumer, full stop. Yeah, if you if you 87 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 3: do do sixty percent tariff on China, that could help 88 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 3: reduce some imports from China. We did see that in 89 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 3: the in the last trade war. But if you couple 90 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 3: that with a ten percent universal baseline tariff, now goods 91 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 3: are just gonna get more expensive. So when we model it, 92 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:19,479 Speaker 3: it could be about a ten one percent headwind on 93 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 3: GDP and a one point one percent increase in inflation. 94 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:25,719 Speaker 3: So it's really a stagflationary type of policy. 95 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 2: Are we having a sustainable three percent economy? We had 96 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 2: one quarter three percent? There's a guesstimate ending September thirty 97 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 2: three percent? 98 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 4: Is it? Dare I say a Q four to three 99 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:38,480 Speaker 4: percent ish? 100 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 3: And that's probably a little bit high. I think we're 101 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 3: like a two and a half percent economy. Productivity does 102 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 3: appear to I've picked up in this economy, which is 103 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,039 Speaker 3: a great thing. That's where we can get non inflationary 104 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 3: growth in it. 105 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 2: Talk about that. Let's fold it in the election. Productivity 106 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 2: is picked up. I think ninety nine percent of people 107 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,479 Speaker 2: agree with you, except half of this nation's flat on 108 00:04:56,520 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 2: their back. Does that mean productivity for everybody else's double 109 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 2: while half the nation's flat on their back? 110 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 3: So if you look at if you look at productivity 111 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 3: by sector, technology has driven a lot of it, probably 112 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 3: no surprise. And then some of the areas of the 113 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 3: economy that have had to deal with reduced labor shortages, 114 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 3: things like retail, leisure and hospitality, they'd just become more 115 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,359 Speaker 3: productive because they had to. There were some areas that 116 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:23,840 Speaker 3: benefited from the pandemic that over hired to where it's 117 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,840 Speaker 3: transportation and warehousing. Those are areas of economy that are 118 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 3: kind of flat on their back from that perspective. So 119 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 3: it is very much mixed depending on kind of what 120 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 3: sector we're talking about. 121 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 5: How's the consumer out there from your perspective in terms 122 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 5: of spending employment, pretty solid or do we have some 123 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 5: concerns there? 124 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 3: And we've been talking about cracks at the low end 125 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 3: for a while. That's still is the case. Granted, if 126 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:47,600 Speaker 3: rates actually do come down, which they should continue to 127 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 3: come down, even if we have some election related volatility, 128 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 3: gas line prices remain muted, that low end consumer shoud 129 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 3: feel a little bit better. So base case is the 130 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 3: consumer should be fine, they're not over levered, and the 131 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 3: savings rate is actually not so not so low. That's 132 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 3: what we learned kind of over the summer is that 133 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 3: the very low savings rate at least, as we've reported, 134 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 3: rise up pretty significantly. 135 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 4: Seventy thousand jobs Friday. Where's the unemployment rate? 136 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 3: Staci's stas for a lot of noise, A lot of 137 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 3: noise around. 138 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 4: That, Steffaniealth brilliant wait. I love starting strong like that. 139 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 140 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen. 141 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:31,840 Speaker 4: On Apple car Play and Android Auto with. 142 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: A Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 143 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:37,479 Speaker 2: The bond market giving us some tension here about our 144 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:41,919 Speaker 2: debt and deficit. Probably that means three four themes with 145 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,480 Speaker 2: our guests. David Malpass, many of you will know him, 146 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 2: is the driving force for Alan Schwartz at bear Stearn's 147 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 2: Economics years ago. Of course, the service to the nation 148 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 2: at the World Bank for President Trump. And we're thrilled 149 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 2: he can join us in the studio. Now there's four 150 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 2: or five six topics David we can talk talk about. 151 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 2: You are the rarest of rare Ducks, a Colorado College 152 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 2: physicist who was so dumb he actually ran for public office. 153 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 2: I want to focus on this election. Come on, you're 154 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 2: an institutional guy. You can do the foreign the foreign 155 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 2: policy and all that. 156 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 4: Forget about it. 157 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 2: What was it like campaigning in Broom County in twenty 158 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 2: ten against Senator gillibrand. 159 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 6: Tom That was an experience for the lifetime. I had 160 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 6: the minivan and drove around New York State and really 161 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 6: talked about how could Washington actually stop growing? And so 162 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 6: there was Remember it was the teapot of the year 163 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 6: in twenty ten. The Senate seat had had been Hillary 164 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 6: Clinton's Senate seed, and Jill Brand was holding it in 165 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 6: twenty twenty nine and ten. So I decided to run 166 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 6: because I really think that the issues can be changed 167 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 6: in Washington if you have people leaders in Washington talking 168 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 6: about what to do about the budget, what to do 169 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 6: actually about the dollar and. 170 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 4: Keep it bank stable. 171 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 6: These are important topics. 172 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 2: Most important tweet of the last twenty four hours was 173 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 2: the wonderful Michael Beschloss, who put out a photograph of 174 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 2: a Puerto Rican in a Pittsburgh Pirates uniform. In the 175 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 2: bottom line is the rhetoric and dialogue across all parties, 176 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 2: but particularly what we've seen in the last forty eight 177 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 2: hours is just totally unexcusable. And this guy hired you 178 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 2: to run the World Bank. How can guys like you 179 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:39,199 Speaker 2: and your lovely wife who ran Manhattan GOP support this 180 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:41,559 Speaker 2: guy with a rhetoric we're hearing. 181 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 6: Tom, I'm not into the election itself, but into the policies. 182 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 6: And as you look at where the US stands in 183 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:52,959 Speaker 6: the world, it's a voice of weakness around the world. 184 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 6: It's causing instability all through Africa. Any international meeting I 185 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:02,840 Speaker 6: went to, people were almost pleading, saying can't the US 186 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 6: have a voice? And that it's not there? And the 187 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:10,679 Speaker 6: policies that are being projected by the current administration and 188 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 6: into the future look like they'll get more wants. 189 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 2: To get in here, pause looking at me like what 190 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 2: is this a monologue? But I was just in Rome 191 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 2: and I'm sorry they're petrified of a certain candidate winning here. 192 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 2: How does your party? Could you run for secretaries? Could 193 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 2: you take secretary of State under a new Trump administration? 194 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:31,840 Speaker 4: Would you accept that position? 195 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 6: That's not not even a question? Can the US grow more? 196 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 6: And will that be stabilizing in the world? And the 197 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 6: answer is yes. And is the budget that's now in 198 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:48,960 Speaker 6: front of the US nation from the Biden Harris administration acceptable? 199 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 6: The answer is no. It's an unacceptable budget and it's 200 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 6: not going to lead to growth. They are willing to 201 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 6: have the country grow at one and a half percent 202 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 6: per year with big government. That's their dream of how 203 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 6: a country will look. 204 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 5: What will become of the World Bank if Trump wins 205 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 5: in on Tuesday. 206 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 6: As an institution, it's you know, got its shareholders. So 207 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 6: I don't think that would be the focus of change. 208 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 6: And the World Bank's not very big within the world scene. 209 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 6: One of the things that has to be discussed the 210 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 6: United Nations. Antonio Guterris, the head of the United Nations, 211 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 6: just went to the Brick Summit in Russia. Why aren't 212 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:32,320 Speaker 6: people talking about that? And did the US protest that? 213 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 6: Here he is in Kazan, Russia with Putin, uh, you know, 214 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:40,680 Speaker 6: shaking hands, bowing at the time of a vicious war 215 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 6: that's going on in Ukraine. And so how does the 216 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:48,079 Speaker 6: world really interact with these institutions that are that are 217 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 6: harming people around the world. 218 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 5: Trump presidency was kind of more, you know, just nationalistic 219 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:58,960 Speaker 5: as opposed to internationalism. Doesn't he want to step back from. 220 00:10:58,800 --> 00:10:59,439 Speaker 4: The world stage? 221 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 5: Doesn't want to? I mean, how does that project world 222 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 5: US influence globally. 223 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 4: Case by case? For one. 224 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,320 Speaker 6: You don't want to have permanent wars. And it sure 225 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 6: looks like we've gotten into a very long term war 226 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 6: in Ukraine and Russia where we're arming one side and 227 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 6: they're arming the other side. Of that. 228 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 5: On the field, we're letting the Ukrainians fight our wars 229 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:23,239 Speaker 5: and that's the best strategy. 230 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 6: No, that's not a good strategy at all. They're dying 231 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 6: and so that's a best fight. 232 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:30,559 Speaker 5: All we're doing is funning and we're letting them fight against. 233 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 4: Your your question of nationalism. 234 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 6: So Trump's been pretty clear that he would pick his 235 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 6: pick his fights and that through deterrence, the US would 236 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:42,319 Speaker 6: be a stronger nation. And I think that's a very 237 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 6: defensible position to be in. If you say to to 238 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:48,719 Speaker 6: Putin or to China, we are going to be the 239 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 6: strongest growing country. We're going to have the best technology. 240 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 6: We're supporting our troops one hundred percent. They're going to 241 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 6: be more reluctant to start wars. 242 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 2: The three percent economy that we have, everyone, every political persuasion, 243 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 2: every economic persuasion, has been shocked by the growth that 244 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:11,560 Speaker 2: we've seen. David Malpass, do you equate the growth we 245 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:15,680 Speaker 2: have in twenty twenty four directly to the stimulus of 246 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, or can we actually say there's a 247 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 2: productivity a technology overlay going on right now? 248 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 6: Some of both, but with a big thing is the 249 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 6: government is running a six and a half percent fiscal deficit. Now, 250 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 6: this has never happened where you have a full employment 251 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 6: economy and the government at great and so some part 252 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 6: of our GDP growth right now is just the expansion 253 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:43,199 Speaker 6: of the national debt. The government borrows money. 254 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 4: So, okay, I'll go there, David. 255 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 2: It's good Colorado College physics. But the bottom line is, 256 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 2: do you hear either candidate going on the path of 257 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 2: Pete Peterson, Paul Saugus and Sam Nunn and getting our 258 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 2: debt and deficit trajectories in better control. 259 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 6: No, But to those three people, those were austerity policies, 260 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 6: and what Trump is talking about is growth policies. They're 261 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 6: very different. That means changing the regulatory policy so that 262 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 6: people will actually build things. You know, a giant part 263 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 6: of the semiconductor problem right now is you can't build 264 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 6: a factory because of the rules that go into that 265 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:23,880 Speaker 6: IRA Bill, And so they're pumping money into the economy 266 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 6: but getting nothing for it. That can all be changed. 267 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 6: And that's not as hard to change as people think. 268 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:34,559 Speaker 6: It just means sensible decisions at the top in Washington 269 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 6: to spend the money less wastefully. 270 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 5: Is there a will in Congress to get that done. 271 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,839 Speaker 6: No, to some extent, they're part of the problem. That's 272 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 6: why I ran in two thousand and ten for the Senate. 273 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 6: So they love it when you just spend money and 274 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:52,320 Speaker 6: it doesn't matter if it has effect. But that can 275 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 6: change through leadership from the top. We're just not getting 276 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 6: it now. 277 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:59,840 Speaker 2: Tell us about money and running a campaign. I mean, 278 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,559 Speaker 2: you know, I look at the day to day battle 279 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 2: of each of the candidates and all that out in 280 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:09,840 Speaker 2: the trenches as you were in twenty ten, Are you 281 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 2: just basically waking up in the morning and trying to 282 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 2: raise money? 283 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 6: Yes, and plus I was spending quite a bit of 284 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 6: my own money because I really believed in the cause. 285 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 4: But the. 286 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 6: Secret, I don't know that it's very much of a secret. 287 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 6: Is there's corruption across the whole system. How is it 288 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 6: that Washington is the richest part of the country. That 289 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 6: doesn't make sense? And with them moving up every year 290 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 6: on that leader on the leader board, Washington's the big 291 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 6: winner and so that comes from campaigning constant campaigns. 292 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 2: This has been a really successful interview. Everyone that's been 293 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,280 Speaker 2: listening to it thinks that I'm a piece of garbage 294 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 2: floating around. 295 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 4: The East River. 296 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 2: David Malpass, thank you so much for joining us and 297 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 2: for a spirit of debate here as we go to 298 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 2: November fifth. Mister mail Past, of course, is a former 299 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 2: president of the World Bank. 300 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 301 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 302 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 303 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 304 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty in Chicago. 305 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 2: Interrograna joins us this morning and here in our studios, 306 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 2: Man Deep Singh. 307 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 4: This is where it has to be, folks. They're not 308 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:29,080 Speaker 4: allowed to be in the same building of that. 309 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 2: Important for what we do, Paul Sweeney, What do Interragrana 310 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 2: and man Deep sing do for us? 311 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 5: They run our technology research. It is a global business time. 312 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 5: We have research channels around the world Europe, Asia, North 313 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 5: America to really get a real handle on the entire 314 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 5: technology stack. On ro Let's start with you here. We 315 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 5: got Ernie coming up this week. Let's start with Apple. 316 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 5: I'm not sure what the story is here. I'll tell 317 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 5: you what I'm concerned about is China. Can you give 318 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 5: us a sense of kind of Apple and China and 319 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 5: what you think we might hear from Apple this quarter 320 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 5: as it relates to China. 321 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 7: All I think you nailed it. We are concerned about 322 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:11,880 Speaker 7: China as well. We've been hearing about slow down and 323 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 7: spending in China in the luxury goods market, whether it's 324 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 7: LVMH or Swatch. And we heard from some of the 325 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 7: suppliers as well that the fourth quarter or the December 326 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 7: quarter numbers may be little light. So when they give 327 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 7: guidance for next quarter Apple, when they report on Thursday, 328 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 7: I think that's could be a concern. And we are 329 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 7: on the same page as you that China is an 330 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 7: issue and. 331 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 4: Rag back it up. 332 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 2: Then one day on Microsoft, I guess it's AI angst. 333 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 2: What is the character of aner Agrana's AI angst? 334 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 7: So when you look at Microsoft for over the next 335 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,760 Speaker 7: twelve months, we are going to see massive capex going 336 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 7: into the into the market, along with a little bit 337 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 7: of margin degradation. So this is not going to be 338 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 7: financially a massive year for Microsoft when it comes to 339 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 7: earnings growth. But at the same time, that's the only 340 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 7: company where we can see actual benefits of AI translating 341 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:09,440 Speaker 7: into revenue, and I think that's most important for them 342 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:12,320 Speaker 7: is to prove to the market that their AI revenue 343 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,719 Speaker 7: is picking up better than anybody else out there, and 344 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 7: their positioning is stronger. 345 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 4: And I think that's most important for Microsoft. 346 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:20,919 Speaker 5: Tom our good friend man Deep sing here in studio 347 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 5: is sporting a cast on his left hand some tennis injury. 348 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:26,200 Speaker 5: Goes back to my theory no one ever got hurt 349 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 5: sitting on a barstool. So Man Deep, I don't know 350 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 5: what's going on with you in your tennis game. We 351 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 5: got the digital advertising players, the Googles, the facebooks of 352 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 5: the world. How's that business these days? 353 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 8: I mean, given you know we are coming off peak 354 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:43,359 Speaker 8: interest rates, and you know with lower interest rates you 355 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 8: typically see digital ads tend to do well. So I 356 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:51,879 Speaker 8: would say, I mean both Meta and Google should see 357 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,120 Speaker 8: kind of a tickup when it comes to digital ads spending. 358 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,400 Speaker 8: The thing to keep in mind is where the expectations are. 359 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 8: So in the case of Meta, expectations are already for 360 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 8: twenty percent growth, so it's hard to see them coming 361 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 8: up with a big bet and race. They could. But 362 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 8: in the case of Alphabet, the expectation is for thirteen 363 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,359 Speaker 8: percent growth, and that includes your cloud business, which is 364 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:16,639 Speaker 8: growing at thirty percent. So I would argue there is 365 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 8: a more likelihood of Alphabet beating their numbers than Meta. 366 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:23,879 Speaker 2: Okay, nobody cares inter Rug Round. I'm gonna go to you, 367 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:25,880 Speaker 2: Man Deep now, but Interrug I want you to jump 368 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,920 Speaker 2: in here. Are you kidding me? My search is cluttered. 369 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 2: I've got all this AI garbage up top. I can't 370 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 2: get the search like I used to. What are we 371 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 2: going to look like Man Deep singing in twelve months? 372 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 8: Well, so, Chatchipt has clearly changed the user interface for 373 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 8: how people search and for informational queries. A Chatchipt interface 374 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 8: is far better than a Google search, But for. 375 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 2: Search who it's too much to read. 376 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 4: I just want to get to a Google. 377 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 8: Search, But Google search will show you ten links and 378 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 8: then you have to figure out which is the best 379 00:18:58,560 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 8: link you want to. 380 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 4: Give it less. I'm searching for girkins for martinis. You 381 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:03,639 Speaker 4: know I want the little one? 382 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 6: Sure? 383 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, little cute pipals. 384 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 2: Absolutely I get I get four miles of AI chat 385 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:13,159 Speaker 2: GPT garbage rather than search Google, Girkins, Martini. 386 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 8: You're absolutely right. So for transactional queries, for navigational queries, right, 387 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 8: there is no substitute from chatipt. It's only for informational queries. 388 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 8: That's where chatchipt is making informational quarries. 389 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 5: Maybe give how you beloing the best? 390 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 2: We've got aniragron in Chicago interrag Does this mean bing 391 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 2: to the rescue? Is this finally where bing gets it going? 392 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:35,640 Speaker 4: No? 393 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 7: No, no, no, I don't think so. I think what's 394 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 7: going to happen is for transactional lesment. They mentioned you're 395 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 7: going to have enterprise companies coming up with copilot slash 396 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 7: AI agents that can help you find those things better. 397 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 7: So I think this is where a lot of the 398 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 7: companies will be spending money. You know, whether it is 399 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 7: e commerce, whether it is any other area, you will 400 00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 7: see AI helping you better get the right product for 401 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 7: you in your hand. And I think that's the big differentiator. 402 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 4: Tom. 403 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 5: I think the reason Man Deep and on a Rock 404 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 5: sounds so smart is because they cover technology and it 405 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:10,920 Speaker 5: just grows every single year. I could sound smart talking 406 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 5: about technology. So an Rock talk to us about like, 407 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 5: I know, we spend a lot of money buying you 408 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 5: and mandeep this IDC data about where all the tech 409 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,439 Speaker 5: spending is going, and I paid for that for many years. 410 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:24,880 Speaker 5: Where is tech spending going over the next several years. 411 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 5: Is this a slowing growth market or is tech spending 412 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:29,159 Speaker 5: going to go crazy with AI? 413 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 7: When you look at tech spending right now, Paul and Tom, 414 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,360 Speaker 7: we are seeing a bit of a slowdown in non 415 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,199 Speaker 7: AI tech spending. So the big bucket is still the 416 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 7: same what it was the last few years, but companies 417 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 7: are just allocating money from one bucket to the other. 418 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,719 Speaker 7: What we are hoping is by next year, hoping that 419 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 7: you know, the Middle East crisis comes down a little bit, 420 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 7: the election is over, companies are going to do net 421 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 7: new addition to that spending which is going to help 422 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,720 Speaker 7: both the AI part of it and the non AI 423 00:20:57,760 --> 00:20:58,159 Speaker 7: part of it. 424 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg surveillance for you across nation in your commute, Android Auto, 425 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 2: Apple car play Man Deep Sing has both in this 426 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 2: car and Sirius XM Channel one twenty one, Good morning 427 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,600 Speaker 2: as well. The Coriner, Washington, New York, Boston, ninety two 428 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 2: nine FM. Good morning as well. We're on YouTube. Subscribe 429 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 2: to Bloomberg Podcast. It's a new digital effort here. Thrilled 430 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 2: at the growth of YouTube for Bloomberg Surveillance, Man Deep 431 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:27,199 Speaker 2: sing I got to get back to foundationals here. I 432 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:31,399 Speaker 2: actually watched sort of curious about the colors the M 433 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 2: four launch yesterday, and you know where I am. 434 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,679 Speaker 4: I'm chip centric. I'm with Man Deep on this. Folks. 435 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 4: Forget about you know, pink or orange? 436 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 2: What do I need in an iMac three nanometer semiconductors. 437 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 2: Explain to our audience the importance of three nanometer on 438 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 2: our path to two nanometers. 439 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,440 Speaker 8: Yeah, look, I mean the reason why we are talking 440 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 8: about AI is because all these computations are growing exponentially. 441 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 8: I mean, look at how much we have come in 442 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 8: terms of Nvidia GPU architecture. So the same architecture has 443 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,479 Speaker 8: to be brought on on the device side when it 444 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,080 Speaker 8: comes to the smartphones and the PCs you use. And 445 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 8: that's what Apple has to do in terms of using 446 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:18,439 Speaker 8: the three nanometer manufacturing capacity to make this chip so 447 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,879 Speaker 8: powerful that it can run a full fledged AARI model 448 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:22,639 Speaker 8: on the chip. 449 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 2: So the nano how does mandeep sworld of three nanometers 450 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 2: fold over to what Nadella has to do with the 451 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 2: conference call Microsoft on Thursday. 452 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 7: You know, when you look at Microsoft, what they're trying 453 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 7: to push is all their enterprise applications, whether it's dynamics 454 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 7: or office. They need those to be much smarter to 455 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 7: make it a point that people upgrade to the next 456 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 7: version of it. So that's where they get the artpoop. 457 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,199 Speaker 7: When you look at a company like Microsoft, I mean, 458 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 7: the number of people who are using Excel up pretty 459 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 7: much constant. They really need people to go upstream in 460 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,159 Speaker 7: order to make more money, and that's where they need 461 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 7: to prove that the pilots actually have that productivity that 462 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 7: comes in it which is going to force people to 463 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 7: upgrade the cloud. 464 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 5: Give us a sense on a rog kind of I'm 465 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 5: thinking about Amazon, Google, you know, some of the big 466 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 5: players here in the Microsoft's of the world. Give us 467 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 5: a sense of the lay of the land here on 468 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,439 Speaker 5: the cloud. Who's kind of on the margin doing a 469 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 5: better job, and who might be on the margin kind 470 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 5: of slipping a little bit. 471 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 7: I see, this is the way we think about cloud. 472 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 7: The entire market is growing at such a rapid rate 473 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 7: that all three big companies are going to make money. 474 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 7: In fact, Oorical is going to make money as well. 475 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 7: But when you look at it at this point a time, 476 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,120 Speaker 7: because of Microsoft's relationship with open Ai, they are doing 477 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 7: slightly better than the other two. But I have no 478 00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 7: doubts that both Amazon and Google will make a lot 479 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,159 Speaker 7: of money over the next few years because it is 480 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 7: much easier to run some of these AI workloads in 481 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 7: the cloud infrastructure rather than doing it in house. If 482 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 7: you're a large bank like JP Morgan, you may decide 483 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,399 Speaker 7: to do it in house because you have the to 484 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 7: do it, but not everybody else can go out buy 485 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 7: GPUs and AI service and try to do this in house. 486 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 7: There's a massive shortage of labored out there as well. 487 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 5: Many I want to ask you about an old time 488 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 5: long in the two tech company Intel. I know you're 489 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 5: not the chip guy, but you hired our chip guy. 490 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 5: What's going on with you? 491 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:20,800 Speaker 4: Your fault exactly? 492 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:23,600 Speaker 5: Can we ever get our good friends at Intel back 493 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:24,600 Speaker 5: on the cutting edge again? 494 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 4: Well? 495 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 8: Tom mentioned about three nanometer. Intel has still not perfect 496 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,920 Speaker 8: at seven nanometers, so for them to get to three nanometer, 497 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 8: they still need that time to you know, build their 498 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 8: capabilities and that's where I think Intel has struggled for 499 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 8: the last five years. It's hard to see how they 500 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 8: can get directly to three nanometer given where TSMC is, 501 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,160 Speaker 8: But that's where the gap. 502 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 5: Is three nanometer John. 503 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, let's yeah, Well there's tons of the minus nine 504 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 2: ye who entered RONA last question to you here, when 505 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 2: you do some of the parts of technology, how far 506 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 2: out the sex is can you go? 507 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 4: If you some of the parts. 508 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 2: I don't want you to buy holes sell, but if 509 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,640 Speaker 2: you some of the parts. Some of these companies reporting 510 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:12,479 Speaker 2: this week, is it confidence out three years, five years? 511 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,359 Speaker 2: Is it interogrna confidence out to ten years? 512 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,399 Speaker 7: They think they need to basically mention that the demand 513 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 7: is so strong that they really don't see a way 514 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 7: that they're going to reduce their capex anytime soon. Any 515 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,200 Speaker 7: talk of reduction as capex is going to be taken 516 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,160 Speaker 7: with a lot of negativity right now because the way 517 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 7: these guys are spending, they're going to spend let's say, 518 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 7: close to one hundred billion dollars extra over then next 519 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:37,840 Speaker 7: trawo and a half years or so. If they say 520 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,920 Speaker 7: we're going to slow that down, that's bad sign. But otherwise, 521 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 7: what They're basically saying is that the total addressable market 522 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 7: is growing at such a rapid rate that they are 523 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 7: out there to spend the money and then collect the 524 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 7: you know, dollars after that. 525 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 4: You know, I shaved the beard today. You know what 526 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,480 Speaker 4: I mean? These plicer scope and beards here now, you know, man, 527 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 4: is that like a bi thing? Many? Fine? 528 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:00,800 Speaker 5: I don't honor. 529 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,639 Speaker 4: The re ducks of CLOONEYA in Chicago. 530 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,960 Speaker 5: Exactly, which is a burgeoning tech cub. I'm not sure 531 00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 5: if you knew about it. That's why we have Chicago's 532 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:11,119 Speaker 5: tech cub exactly. 533 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,719 Speaker 4: Tell that to Bowie. Thank you so much greatly. 534 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,359 Speaker 2: This is a pleasure. I can't tell you, folks the 535 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 2: gift we have and what Sweeney invented at Bloomberg Intelligence. 536 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 2: Mandy Singh enter Agrana to tell me how much money 537 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 2: I lost by not being in big tech stocks. 538 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 539 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 540 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 541 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 542 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:47,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. 543 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 2: Joining us right now with the worst job at Bloomberg 544 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,199 Speaker 2: is Michael Shephard. He is in Washington, and he and 545 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:58,400 Speaker 2: Margaret Collins have to herd cats here till November five. Mike, 546 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 2: let me just get the broader you here is you 547 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:05,200 Speaker 2: and Peggy Collins set up for this election? Is a 548 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 2: general statement? Is everybody all hands on deck into the 549 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:10,000 Speaker 2: next weekend? 550 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 9: Well, Tom, first, I gotta say it is I think 551 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,119 Speaker 9: the best job at Bloomberg. 552 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:16,880 Speaker 4: You know what more. 553 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,720 Speaker 9: Would you want? You know, where else did you want 554 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:20,680 Speaker 9: to be than right here? 555 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,040 Speaker 4: Mike. He's got the best food court in Bloomberg. 556 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 7: He does for we do We do they too. 557 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:30,200 Speaker 9: I'll stack our pantry up against any pantry around the world. 558 00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 9: But yeah, Peggy and I have been bracing for this 559 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 9: election for weeks, if not months, and really, if not 560 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 9: for the past four years, really because as soon as 561 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 9: Joe Biden took the oath of office back in twenty 562 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,720 Speaker 9: twenty one, Donald Trump was already laying his plans for 563 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 9: a comeback, and we're seeing that now come to a head. 564 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,920 Speaker 9: He gave his closing argument on Sunday night Madison Square Garden, 565 00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 9: which everybody watched so closely, And Harris is going to 566 00:27:57,960 --> 00:27:59,119 Speaker 9: do the same thing tonight. 567 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,400 Speaker 2: And there's reports in the folks. I'm just talking from 568 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,760 Speaker 2: the zeitgeist here. There's reports that the Trump team is 569 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:09,880 Speaker 2: preparing for a second administration. Is the Harris team, Mike Shephard, 570 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 2: preparing for a Harris presidency? 571 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:14,560 Speaker 4: Are they there yet? 572 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,600 Speaker 9: You know, they are trying to lay the groundwork as 573 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,560 Speaker 9: best they can. But remember the challenge that they face. 574 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,359 Speaker 9: They really only had a few months agreed as a 575 00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:27,679 Speaker 9: full fledged presidential operation and campaign, so it is a 576 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:29,879 Speaker 9: bit of a scramble for them, and they have to 577 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,119 Speaker 9: figure out who might stay on and what roles, and 578 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,120 Speaker 9: who they might want to bring in from the outside. 579 00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:37,800 Speaker 9: Recruiting from the business world too. 580 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,080 Speaker 2: I mean on YouTube live chat, the ladies dig the beard, 581 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 2: gotta have it. 582 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 4: We're having any guests today without a beard? 583 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 5: I don't know. It's kind of what the young folks 584 00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 5: should do. And hey, Mike, how are you and your 585 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 5: colleagues at the Washington DC Bureau Bloomberg is how do 586 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 5: you guys figuring out Whennessing will know one way or 587 00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 5: the other who's winning. Is this going to be a day, 588 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 5: two days a week? How are you guys thinking about this? 589 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,520 Speaker 9: We're bracing for the long haul, Paul, And that's a 590 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,720 Speaker 9: great question because so many people, especially on Wall Street, 591 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:13,960 Speaker 9: are wondering when will the uncertainty about the election outcome. 592 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:19,880 Speaker 9: And we're not really gonna know until sometime toward the 593 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:24,640 Speaker 9: end of next week. Based on our best estimates and guesses. 594 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 9: The election is so closely contested, and we are expecting 595 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 9: some challenges from the Trump side or the harricide even 596 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 9: in some of those swinging states. 597 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 7: So buckle up. 598 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,760 Speaker 9: Make sure you bring plenty of snacks and that you're comfortable, 599 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,440 Speaker 9: because we're going to be in this for the long haul. 600 00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:45,560 Speaker 9: And remember Tom in twenty twenty, it took until Saturday 601 00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:47,480 Speaker 9: after the election before we had an outcome. 602 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 2: Okay, Mike sheperd I'm on a Heidi Moore shot hiding 603 00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:55,240 Speaker 2: more folks follow out on Twitter. Really really is always controversial, 604 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 2: always interesting, always informative. And she crushed the other day 605 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:03,000 Speaker 2: Mike Shephard criticizing all the punditry that you have to 606 00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:06,120 Speaker 2: deal with twenty four to seven because nobody's looking at 607 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 2: the margin of era. 608 00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 4: Those on YouTube folks. 609 00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 2: Ari's putting up this killer map of the swing states. 610 00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,719 Speaker 10: Harris Trump Blue I should wear she knows, you know, 611 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,160 Speaker 10: get in front of my chart where she knows you 612 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,680 Speaker 10: tell everybody here what's going on, Belowney, Mike Shephard, Where 613 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,520 Speaker 10: did margin of error go hiding? 614 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:23,440 Speaker 4: Moore wants to know. 615 00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,880 Speaker 9: Look, margin of ra is baked into all of these polls, 616 00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:31,479 Speaker 9: but people are emphasizing what the difference is. The margin 617 00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,760 Speaker 9: of verra does get lost a little bit in the 618 00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,680 Speaker 9: fine print. And the truth is, it is very hard 619 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 9: for us to discern from the surveys that we've been 620 00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,800 Speaker 9: taking for months now where voters stand. And if you 621 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,560 Speaker 9: look at early voting results we've already had, according to 622 00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 9: ABC NBC News, rather forty four million people cast ballots already, 623 00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:54,440 Speaker 9: and from the data we see on those early votes, 624 00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,520 Speaker 9: it's hard to tell where is it falling, doesn't advantage 625 00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 9: one party or another, We simply can't tell based on 626 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:04,800 Speaker 9: the parties and affiliations of people have already either submitted 627 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,640 Speaker 9: our mail in ballots or gone to early polling places. 628 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 9: This is a really tough one to call based on 629 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,520 Speaker 9: the data available and based on the surveys. Although one 630 00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,480 Speaker 9: thing I'll say in our Bloomberg News Morning Console poll, 631 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 9: this was one number that stood out of nearly five 632 00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:25,080 Speaker 9: thousand voters. In our last survey that published on Wednesday, 633 00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:30,480 Speaker 9: guess how many voters declared themselves as undecided? Out of 634 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:35,080 Speaker 9: nearly five thousand, it was ninety three. And that's pretty astonishing, 635 00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:36,800 Speaker 9: And that kind of gives you an idea of the 636 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:39,800 Speaker 9: small space that the two candidates are really fighting over. 637 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:41,600 Speaker 2: They were all at a bar in New Jersey with 638 00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:44,880 Speaker 2: John Tucker where they were very undecided. 639 00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 4: Very undecided. 640 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,160 Speaker 5: Mike, how about down ballot, down ballot here, what do 641 00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:49,960 Speaker 5: we know so far about how some of that is 642 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:52,280 Speaker 5: shaking out or could chick out? 643 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,160 Speaker 9: Well, you know, Paul, another great question, because it's not 644 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 9: just the presidency that's at stake, it's control of Congress 645 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,640 Speaker 9: and the Senate is a specially crucial this year because 646 00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:05,080 Speaker 9: whoever wins the presidency will have to contend with the 647 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:09,160 Speaker 9: Senate that could very well be opposite them, and we 648 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:12,720 Speaker 9: could have we are likely to have divided government again, 649 00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:16,440 Speaker 9: and they'll have veto power in essence over cabinet nominees 650 00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:17,480 Speaker 9: and judicial nominade. 651 00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:19,960 Speaker 2: Okay, so let's just go there. And I got one 652 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,720 Speaker 2: minute left, Mike Shepard, Let's go to Ohio. Shared Brown 653 00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 2: is fighting for his life, I believe for the Senate, 654 00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:29,200 Speaker 2: the Democrat versus a spirited Republican. Do either of those 655 00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 2: candidates want their presidential candidates to show up to campaign 656 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:34,320 Speaker 2: for them in Ohio? 657 00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:39,600 Speaker 9: Well, yeah, that's a good question, Tom, because going well 658 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 9: because for a lot of the especially John Tester, are 659 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:46,200 Speaker 9: also out in Montana, they don't necessarily want to be 660 00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:48,840 Speaker 9: associated with the top of the ticket, and they really 661 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:52,080 Speaker 9: do want to speak to more local issues. That's something 662 00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,880 Speaker 9: that Shared Brown, for instance, in Ohio, has tried to 663 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:59,320 Speaker 9: do well listening to the Union base out there. Bernie Moreno, 664 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,840 Speaker 9: his rival on the Republican side, is also trying to 665 00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,960 Speaker 9: make a different kind of appeal to voters there too, 666 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 9: So it is going to be very tough to determine 667 00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:12,560 Speaker 9: which has the edge right now, though the electoral map 668 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,840 Speaker 9: favors Republicans when it comes to the Senate. 669 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,239 Speaker 2: Mitch Shepherd, thank you so much leading our coverage here 670 00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:21,440 Speaker 2: on our Politics in Washington with Always with Margaret Collins. 671 00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:26,200 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 672 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:30,000 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 673 00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,440 Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 674 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:37,200 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app tune in, and the Bloomberg Business App. 675 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 676 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:42,600 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal