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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Playoffs You kidding me?

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Speaker 1: Playoffs?

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 1: Here we go, throwing in job spec.

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Speaker 2: I'm sitting up to cats stops.

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Speaker 1: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 1: to win. God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I

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Speaker 1: like to make money. All right? This is the ultimate

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Speaker 1: Kabai and we are What's up everybody? Welcome to the

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Speaker 1: Action Network Podcast presented by Fandel. I am your host,

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Speaker 1: Chris Raybon, and this is your conference championship weekend betting

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Speaker 1: preview where we will talk about our favorite totals, teasers, underdogs,

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Speaker 1: and crack open our weekly Sunday six pack of bets

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Speaker 1: with the help of my co host, the Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck. What is going on?

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Speaker 2: What's going on? Brother? I had a terrible weekend. Everything

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Speaker 2: I said was wrong, pretty much my ETN prop that

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Speaker 2: I gave out on here, Like, I lost a ton

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Speaker 2: of money on that prop because I was able to

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Speaker 2: get down on like eighteen and a half and I

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Speaker 2: landed on eighteen. It was funny because then you had

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Speaker 2: a Barkley prop and like the two first round draft

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Speaker 2: pick running backs just don't play in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I guess Barkley got hurt and like it

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Speaker 2: was the game was over, but I don't know why

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Speaker 2: ETN was not playing for most of that game. And

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Speaker 2: then I had the Bills and I played the snover.

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Speaker 2: I got my first snover of the year, which did

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Speaker 2: help the Bengals in their offensive line because you can't

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Speaker 2: get a pass rush. Probably the most shocking result of

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Speaker 2: the year for me is the Bills only scoring ten

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Speaker 2: points in that game and looking just lost, and luckily

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Speaker 2: I salvaged the weekend. I had a couple I followed

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Speaker 2: a couple of props that you and Cerner had, so

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Speaker 2: shout out to you guys. I go apology to Bengals fans.

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Speaker 2: They dominated that game, Like that's why in the NFL playoffs,

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Speaker 2: just get in and it's one game, like things can happen.

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Speaker 2: But we're on the conference championship weekend. It's been hell

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Speaker 2: a season, so let's close it out strong.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do it. And we'll obviously dive into both

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Speaker 1: of these games in detail. As a quick reminder, a

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Speaker 1: subscription to Action Pro is how you get the most

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Speaker 1: out of Actions award winning app, and right now Action

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Speaker 1: is offering a pro subscription at forty percent off. This

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Speaker 1: is only being offered during the NFL playoffs, so if

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Speaker 1: you don't already have pro now is the best time

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Speaker 1: to subscribe and unlock all of the best features of

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Speaker 1: the Action app. And to those wondering about this podcast,

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Speaker 1: over the next couple weeks, we have tons of episode

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Speaker 1: featuring myself, Stuck, Brandon Anderson, the whole Action Network podcast

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Speaker 1: team starting Monday, going all the way through the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: Don't worry about that, We'll have you covered. But let's

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Speaker 1: jump right into our conference championship Sunday six pat thursdayper Action.

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Speaker 2: Let's crack open the Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Past and as a reminder for everyone listening for the postseason,

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Speaker 1: we open it up the six pack to any type

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Speaker 1: of bet as long as it's reasonably even juice on

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Speaker 1: either side, props, first half, whatever you want. So uh,

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Speaker 1: but we'll still break down the games as well, even

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Speaker 1: though I there's only we only have one pick I

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Speaker 1: think on in terms of a spreader total, but we'll

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Speaker 1: obviously break down which way we're leaning for the sides

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Speaker 1: for the totals of these two games in depth as

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Speaker 1: we kind of go through our picks let's talk.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to give out six props today, and like

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Speaker 2: there's like I'm gonna got three in my six pack

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Speaker 2: and then there's like three that I'll give out on

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Speaker 2: the side that correlate correlated with them. So if you

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Speaker 2: want to dive in, welcome, Yeah, dive in fully with me.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with the Eagles are two and a half

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Speaker 2: point favorites. The biggest key is is brock Purty. And

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Speaker 2: you're gonna speak to this. Can he play clean? And

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Speaker 2: he's been great And if you look at his numbers,

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Speaker 2: like he's had some drop picks here and there, but

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Speaker 2: he's been really good over the intermediate part of the field,

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Speaker 2: which is like the ten to twenty yards, he's excelling there,

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Speaker 2: which you know a lot of times rookies don't. For

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Speaker 2: what it's worth, he's only the fifth rookie quarterback to

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Speaker 2: ever start a conference championship game. The previous four went

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Speaker 2: Zho to four straight up with four passing touchdowns, nine interceptions.

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Speaker 2: That's Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, and Sean King.

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Speaker 2: Shut up to Sean and from the two lane Green

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Speaker 2: Wave Party's won his first seven starts straight up which

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Speaker 2: is a San Francisco record, and no rookie starting quarterbacks

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Speaker 2: ever made the Super Bowl, let alone won it, so

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Speaker 2: we will see it. He's only the second quarterback since

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Speaker 2: the merger to win his first seven career starts. So

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Speaker 2: Purty is going for some more magic here. I make

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Speaker 2: this spread, like right on, actually make it. I make

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Speaker 2: it Philly minus three, just for the rookie quarterback on

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Speaker 2: the the travel. But I mean, like it's nothing worth

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Speaker 2: playing to me. I do think it's going to be

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Speaker 2: a lower scoring game, which you're going to get to.

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Speaker 2: And I'm going to start with my first pick of

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Speaker 2: the Sunday six pack for the conference championship weekend. I'm

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Speaker 2: going to go with Jalen Hurts under forty nine and

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Speaker 2: a half rushing yards. I think that this number is

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Speaker 2: super inflated enough if you look. You know, the first

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Speaker 2: two games of the season he went wild running. Since then,

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Speaker 2: I think nine of thirteen games he's gone under this number.

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Speaker 2: Still nine to fifteen for the season. And here's a

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Speaker 2: couple of things. He's going up against an elite rush

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Speaker 2: defense that's going to have I think a really good

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Speaker 2: prep here for them, and he's also going up against

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Speaker 2: the team that's a snail right, that they're slow, so

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Speaker 2: there's not as many plays. And I just think that

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Speaker 2: if you could go back to the running quarterbacks that

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Speaker 2: San Francisco has faced all year, no one's really gashing them.

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Speaker 2: I mean even fields in the opener at eleven carries

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Speaker 2: for twenty eight yards. So I think that they're linebackers

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Speaker 2: here and their defensive ends can do a good job

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Speaker 2: at containing fields. And like it's a lot of a

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Speaker 2: lot of the speed at linebackers really going to limit

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Speaker 2: some of those explosive runs that I would worry about

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Speaker 2: with the prop this high, So I think this is

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Speaker 2: way too high. And then on the side, because Mitchell

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Speaker 2: lead into I think your first pick, I also like

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Speaker 2: and this I'm curious to get your thoughts on this

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Speaker 2: since here proviewing this game on Nection Network dot Com

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Speaker 2: the Action Network GAP. I went with McCaffrey under sixty

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Speaker 2: one and a half yards. Now, when I look at

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Speaker 2: when I try to preview the conference championship games and

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Speaker 2: end the Super Bowl for that matter, when we get

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Speaker 2: to the Super Bowl, I try to think of the

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Speaker 2: lines are really efficient and you guys are the masters

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Speaker 2: of the prop projections. But I try to think of like, okay,

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Speaker 2: how are how is each team going to approach this

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Speaker 2: game and change things up, right? Like that's really what

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Speaker 2: you want to do in a game with this much meaning.

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Speaker 2: You want to all right, I'm going to come out

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Speaker 2: with a surprise or I want to make sure that

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Speaker 2: this aspect of this team doesn't beat me. So on

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Speaker 2: one aspect, I think that the forty nine ers are

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Speaker 2: going to say, you know, Hurts is not going to

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Speaker 2: beat us with his legs, and they're going to make

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Speaker 2: sure that doesn't happen. And already they're a great run defense.

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Speaker 2: And then on the other side, I think that the

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Speaker 2: Eagles are their main focus coming into this game is

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Speaker 2: and I think you're going to see a scheme shift,

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Speaker 2: some different play calls, and they're going to say McCaffrey

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Speaker 2: and the running game not gonna beat us. So I

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Speaker 2: don't know if that's a different you know, more guys

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Speaker 2: in the box, because I think it's they're gonna say

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Speaker 2: rookie quarterback on the road. You know, their run d

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Speaker 2: has been their weakness, but when Jordan Davis has been

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Speaker 2: in there, it's been better. But they're gonna say rookie

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Speaker 2: quarterback on the road, you beat us, say Frank's slow

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Speaker 2: team doesn't run a lot of plays, they have a

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Speaker 2: lot of backs. You also have McCaffrey with that calf injury,

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Speaker 2: Like I think he's gonna be five, but who knows

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Speaker 2: what flaes up or he doesn't get the same amount

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Speaker 2: of workload. They're also an underdog in this game, so

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Speaker 2: game script wise, maybe they're not running it as much,

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Speaker 2: and you know, running it when they're up, as they've

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Speaker 2: been for ten or eleven straight games, I think twelve

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Speaker 2: that they've won. So I think this number is a

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Speaker 2: little inflated. Now it's scary in that he could break

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Speaker 2: a long one at any point in time, but I

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Speaker 2: still think it's a little inflated. So official pick Hurts

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Speaker 2: under forty nine and a half rushing yards and then

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Speaker 2: side pick McCaffrey under sixty one and a half.

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Speaker 1: When it comes to Hurts, I think there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of uncertainty as to exactly where we are with this

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Speaker 1: Eagles offense, and that includes Hurts his rushing, his rushing ability,

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Speaker 1: and his passing ability. And so in terms of his rushing,

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Speaker 1: it's like, okay, he came back a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: In that game against the Giants, you know, to quinch

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Speaker 1: the one seeds, he had nine carries I think seventeen

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Speaker 1: yards or something like that. They had some Neil downs

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Speaker 1: mixed in obviously was not trying to take contact. And

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Speaker 1: then last week, you know, the Eagles blowout to Giants

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Speaker 1: and everyone's okay, the offense is back to normal, everything's fine,

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Speaker 1: But two of the three facets that make the Eagles

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Speaker 1: offense great, we're not anything to write home about in

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Speaker 1: that Giants game. And that was the passing efficiency and

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Speaker 1: Hurts rushing a feecy Herts ran last week nine times again,

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Speaker 1: seven design runs this time, but he still ran for

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Speaker 1: only thirty.

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Speaker 3: Four yards and that a terrible run day, right, And

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Speaker 3: for the season, you know, he was right around fifty

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Speaker 3: yards per game on average, And so you're still.

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Speaker 1: Looking at a player who, Okay, the volume went back up,

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Speaker 1: but where are we with the efficiency is another week

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Speaker 1: you know, between games gonna help. That's the question mark.

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Speaker 1: And then passing wise, he's faced the Giants three times

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Speaker 1: in the.

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Speaker 2: Last four weeks.

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Speaker 1: In the last four games he's also faced The week

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Speaker 1: before that, he faced the Titans. They were bottom five

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Speaker 1: pass defense. In between the Giants, he faced the Bears,

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Speaker 1: bottom literally the worst defense in the week pass run overall,

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Speaker 1: So he faced five really bad defenses in a row,

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Speaker 1: and before that Packers who have a bottom five run defense.

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Speaker 1: And yet over the second half of the season, his

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Speaker 1: passing efficiency has been down as well, even going against

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Speaker 1: the soft schedules, and and last week, you know, it

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Speaker 1: was six point four yards in attempt and that's with

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Speaker 1: Goddard back, that's with Lane Johnson back. So I don't

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Speaker 1: know where we are. It hurts how truly healthy he is.

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Speaker 1: And I mean this is Niner defense, you know, as

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Speaker 1: you kind of mentioned, it's a major step up in

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Speaker 1: class just from the like the defense's Hurts has been facing.

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Speaker 1: I really wish we had got to see him against

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Speaker 1: that Dallas defense, that Mint starting, and against that Samet defense,

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Speaker 1: because I think it would have gave us more of

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Speaker 1: kind of a context in the perspective on you know,

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Speaker 1: just you know where he is. But obviously he was

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Speaker 1: he wasn't healthy, so you know, that's moot. But I

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Speaker 1: tend to kind of lean that this Eagles offense is

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Speaker 1: not the offense we saw over the first eight games

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Speaker 1: of the year. I think, you know, they were playing

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Speaker 1: like I mean best like a week a week unit.

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Speaker 1: Now they're they're still playing like an above average you know,

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Speaker 1: it's a good unit over the second half of the

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Speaker 1: year with Hurts. But I think there was always gonna

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Speaker 1: be some regression once off defenses saw aj Brown tape

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Speaker 1: and it kind of figured out, you know, how to

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Speaker 1: how to defend this this offense a little better. So

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Speaker 1: I think Hurts is running will be key here. I

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Speaker 1: actually haven't projected for ten point seven carries, but I

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Speaker 1: do have him just under fifty yards for a media

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Speaker 1: in about forty seven and a half. So you know,

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Speaker 1: I am showing value on your under as well. But

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe get a couple of meals. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: And I do factor that in. I do factor that in.

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Speaker 1: That's my question. It's like what Jalen Hurts and what

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Speaker 1: Eagles offense are we getting Because as far as the

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Speaker 1: handicap for the game, and I'll get into my pick

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Speaker 1: in a second, but as far as the handicap for

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Speaker 1: the side, I think if we knew that this Eagle's

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Speaker 1: offense was going to be the best version of itself,

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Speaker 1: you know, the version that we saw with the first

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Speaker 1: eight games where Hurts was averaging eight and a half

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Speaker 1: yards per attempt, versus the second half of the year

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Speaker 1: where he was averaging seven and a half with you know,

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Speaker 1: double the interception rate. Then I think we could say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's the offense we're gonna get, and we're gonna get Hurts,

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Speaker 1: who the last two weeks, you know, he ran eighteen

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Speaker 1: times for fifty forty seven yards. If we're gonna get

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Speaker 1: the Hurts, oh, the first fourteen games it's averaging you know,

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Speaker 1: fifty yards a game, and it's much more efficient. Then

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Speaker 1: I'd say, okay, Eagles are to play here, you know,

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Speaker 1: inside a key number. But we don't know that. And

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Speaker 1: at the same time, we also don't know, you know,

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Speaker 1: just is it is it gonna get a little better

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Speaker 1: because he's a week removed from the injury, so we

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Speaker 1: don't know that either. So that's why I don't really

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Speaker 1: have a play on the side. I just think there's

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Speaker 1: too much uncertainty, and we're talking about a small spread

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Speaker 1: where we're just try inside key numbers already. You know,

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Speaker 1: it would be different if you know, maybe the Niners

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Speaker 1: were getting plus three and a half, I would say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: just go to Niners just because of the uncertainty with

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Speaker 1: the Eagles offense, but two and a half it's not

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Speaker 1: quite the same. So that's why I don't have a

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Speaker 1: play on the side. But I do agree, I think

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Speaker 1: there's some uncertainly hurts and I do think that this

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Speaker 1: nine er d represents a big step up in class.

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Speaker 2: Especially compared to the whole the whole schedule too, not

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Speaker 2: only just recently who they faced for opposing defenses. And

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Speaker 2: then I also think that the Eagles might come out

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Speaker 2: here and throw it a little because if you're going

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Speaker 2: to attack the San Francisco defense, you want to do

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Speaker 2: it through the air. So I think that they're going

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Speaker 2: to come out they might be a little more aggressive

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Speaker 2: through the air than trying to run it. And then,

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Speaker 2: as you mentioned, you know there is the health concern,

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Speaker 2: and then you're not tape on like what the Eagles

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Speaker 2: were doing early in the year and how they were

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Speaker 2: using hurts and to run, so like you have very

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Speaker 2: advanced I mean, he's an NFC championship, you have a

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Speaker 2: very advanced scouts for this, and then you're also talking

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Speaker 2: about a run defense that's elite. So then any thoughts

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Speaker 2: on McCaffrey under.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I have him right right under sixty. But it's

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Speaker 1: really just kind of a you know, he hasn't been

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Speaker 1: getting that monster workload that we saw with Elijah Mitchell out.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's kind of been McCaffrey getting two thirds,

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Speaker 1: Mitchell getting one third. And last week, you know, Mitchell

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Speaker 1: actually got more carries than that was because McCaffrey was

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Speaker 1: banged up in the fourth quarter. So but even the

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Speaker 1: game before, you know, McCaffrey fifty two of the nine

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Speaker 1: non quarterback design runs and Mitchell thirty one percent, and

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Speaker 1: then Mason at seven percent at the end of the game.

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Speaker 1: So it's not like McCaffrey's been running away here with

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Speaker 1: the with the rushing workode. So I think that's what

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Speaker 1: you're kind of focused on. I do wonder with the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: You know, I was to the Cowboys they kind of

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Speaker 1: stuffed to stack the box, and that was the first

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Speaker 1: team to really do that. But the Eagles, their old

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Speaker 1: philosophy is women explosive. So I do wonder because Purdy

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Speaker 1: has been so explosive and this offense has been so

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Speaker 1: explosive with him, if they continue to just kind of

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Speaker 1: sit back and say, hell, okay, run the ball, but

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Speaker 1: I also think, you know, they could play some more

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Speaker 1: man coverage and and then and get a defender in

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Speaker 1: the box that way, because if you don't play man coverage,

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Speaker 1: you're kind of wasting Sleigh and Bradberry on the outside

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Speaker 1: because you know what deniers are gonna do. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: run in breakers and crossers, and you know, all these

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Speaker 1: plays over the middle of the field, and you know

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Speaker 1: you're gonna kind of get away from Slay and Bradberry's

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Speaker 1: coverage doing that, even with your perimeter receivers. So I

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Speaker 1: do think you could see more man which then would

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Speaker 1: allow the Egles to to kind of get up and defendied.

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Speaker 2: Run of them. Yeah, but where are you going for

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Speaker 2: your first pick?

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Speaker 1: So for my first pick in the second overall of

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Speaker 1: the Conference Championship Sunday six pack, I'm going with Eagles

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Speaker 1: Niners under forty six and a half. And I like

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Speaker 1: this for a variety of factors based on the matchups

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Speaker 1: on each side. We already started talking about the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: you know how healthy it is, hurt and just looking

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Speaker 1: at again the passing efficiency down the stretch for hers

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Speaker 1: first Ay game sixty eight percent. Completions eight and a

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Speaker 1: half yards an attempt and interception rate zero point seven percent,

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Speaker 1: and then his last Day game sixty five percent completion,

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Speaker 1: so down about a little over three points there seven

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Speaker 1: point four yards in attempt, so down over a yard

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Speaker 1: per attempt over his first ay games. And again this

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Speaker 1: is against a bunch of literally bottom three defenses. He

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Speaker 1: still you know, still fell off, which and he didn't

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Speaker 1: really play when he was super hurt. He only had know,

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Speaker 1: I guess that one Giants game, and you could say

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Speaker 1: that the second Giants game in the playoffs where he

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Speaker 1: was hurt, so like the end of the Bears game.

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Speaker 1: So it's not like he played all that hurt. And

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Speaker 1: it was trending down before that anyway. So I do

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Speaker 1: think defenses, you know, started to figure it out a

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Speaker 1: little bit over the second half. And we always know

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts wasn't like Patrick Mahomes, you know, gonna average

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Speaker 1: eight and a half yards per attempt for the year.

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Speaker 1: But you also look at this Niner defense and this

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Speaker 1: is just the fourth time that Jalen Hurts will face.

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Speaker 1: The top ten defense in DVOA this year is nine

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Speaker 1: of defense is number one, and it's ataly been three games,

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Speaker 1: so it still small sample, but we have to kind

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Speaker 1: of look at it just to get an idea in

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Speaker 1: fur the gauge where this offense is at, because again

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Speaker 1: it's tough and.

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Speaker 2: Especially so they're skeet there that these these two teams

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Speaker 2: have the second and first easiest yeah schedules in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: So it's yeah, it's really like, even though we don't

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Speaker 1: have a sample size on Party more than it's only

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Speaker 1: like seven games, it feels like it's just as hard

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Speaker 1: to gauge as Ego offense based on how the trends

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Speaker 1: just kind of split down the middle with Hurts. But

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Speaker 1: you look at Hurts against non top ten defense thirty

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Speaker 1: one points per game, four hundred and eleven yards total

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Speaker 1: total yards per game, six yards per play. And then

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Speaker 1: you look at Herts in the three games where he

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Speaker 1: faced top ten defenses twenty four points a game, just

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Speaker 1: under twenty four points a game, just under three hundred

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Speaker 1: and eleven total yards per game, and five point one

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Speaker 1: yards per play, so dropped off about seven points one

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Speaker 1: hundred yards about a full yard per play. And this

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Speaker 1: is the best defenses they faced, this Niners defense, So

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Speaker 1: there could be you know, a big drop off compared

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Speaker 1: to what we're usually used to against the Eagles, you know,

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Speaker 1: similar to how he saw Dallas doomp over Campa Bay

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Speaker 1: one week and then they scored twelve points the next week.

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Speaker 1: So I think that's why I like it in terms

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Speaker 1: of the Eagles, you know, keeping their score down. And

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Speaker 1: then on the other side, you have the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 1: You know, they hadn't really faced a defense that was

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Speaker 1: very good at all until this Cowboys defense last week.

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Speaker 1: And you know, they go from thirty five points per

369
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Speaker 1: game four hundred and four total yards in party's first

370
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Speaker 1: six starts to nineteen points a three hundred and twelve

371
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Speaker 1: total yards, So they drop off sixteen points and almost

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Speaker 1: one hundred yards total in depth for them.

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Speaker 2: So both of these kind of home at home and nice.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so both of these and yeah, now not to

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Speaker 1: mention the Niners going playing their first game in the

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Speaker 1: cold in quite a while. You know, it's going as

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Speaker 1: far east as they've been all year, I believe.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, rookie quarterback on the road, and right this kind

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Speaker 2: of you might be a little more let's rely on

380
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Speaker 2: our day, a little more conservative early too.

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Speaker 1: Like, Yeah, so that's why I do expect Shanahan to

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Speaker 1: have another run heavy game plan as usual. You know,

383
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Speaker 1: they've been averaging thirty one design runs and just twenty

384
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Speaker 1: nine just over twenty nine design passes in pretty starts.

385
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Speaker 1: So you know, I don't expect this game to get

386
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Speaker 1: out of hand. Obviously that could always change the splits,

387
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 1: but I expect them to kind of stay run heavy

388
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Speaker 1: so it doesn't get out of hand. And you know

389
00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,760
Speaker 1: Shanahan's conservative and all that, but both of these teams

390
00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 1: again bottom line massive drop offs when facing top level defenses.

391
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Speaker 1: And then to top it all off, and you know

392
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Speaker 1: this is for shout to Chad Millman. We got we

393
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Speaker 1: got some referee trends here. John Hussey's gonna ref this game.

394
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 1: Let him play a referee. He is the quintessential just

395
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,879
Speaker 1: left these guys play. So he calls less penalties on

396
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Speaker 1: the offense, but he also calls less penalties on the defense.

397
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Speaker 1: That is what tends to make games stay under the total.

398
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Speaker 1: So he's two full he's about two full penalties below

399
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Speaker 1: league average, calling about nine just over nine penalties a

400
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:39,640
Speaker 1: game the league average eleven just over eleven, fifty one

401
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:43,800
Speaker 1: percent fewer defensive holding calls than the league average, sixteen

402
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:47,159
Speaker 1: percent fewer pass interference calls than the league average. And

403
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,240
Speaker 1: get this, he's called to one roughing the passer all year.

404
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,000
Speaker 1: The league average is about one every three games, about

405
00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 1: point three to three per game. He's called one all year.

406
00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,400
Speaker 1: So this guy, he's not gonna not going to give

407
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,200
Speaker 1: you cheap yards on DPIs. He's not going to give

408
00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,439
Speaker 1: you the cheap fifteen when you when you just you know,

409
00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 1: BA touch the quarterback on the on the head or

410
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 1: anything like that. At least he hasn't up until this point.

411
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Speaker 1: So you look at his games and when he's when

412
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,199
Speaker 1: he reps the game outdoor. I like to filter for

413
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Speaker 1: outdoor indoor because I think indoors is just such a

414
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 1: different environment in terms of scoring. But outdoor games that

415
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 1: Hussy is refereed fifty six thirty nine and one to

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Speaker 1: the under fifty nine percent UH including the postseason, and

417
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:32,080
Speaker 1: UH this year eight and three to the under outdoor

418
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 1: for Hussy. So give me the Niner Eagle under forty

419
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:40,239
Speaker 1: six and a half. Still like it at forty six.

420
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Speaker 1: It might get up to forty seven because the majority

421
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 1: of bets and money are coming in on the over here.

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Speaker 1: But I see this as like a twenty you know,

423
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Speaker 1: twenty seventeen type of game, maybe a twenty three to twenty.

424
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 1: It's more likely that one or both of these defenses

425
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 1: posed a Bengals and just shut completely shuts down the

426
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,199
Speaker 1: other team than than the opposite, which is, you know,

427
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,480
Speaker 1: one of these offense completely explodes. In my opinion, so yeah,

428
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 1: give me the under forty six and a half.

429
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would agree. I think this has like twenty

430
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 2: to seventeen written all over it. Do you want to

431
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:11,200
Speaker 2: just give your net your second and third picks since

432
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 2: we're on this game and we can finish off this, yeah.

433
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:17,160
Speaker 1: Sure, sure, sure, So for my second I'm gonna go

434
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 1: with Quez Watkins under sixteen and a half receiving yards. Uh.

435
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 1: And so this one, I know a lot of people

436
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 1: are saying, Okay, the Niners have been weak deep down

437
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:27,919
Speaker 1: the field, Watkins can stretch the field.

438
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 2: But yeah, a lot of people are going back to

439
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,240
Speaker 2: last year and then he had a ninety three year.

440
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 1: Ninety and ninety one yarder reception.

441
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 2: I know, but first of all, it's a good storyline.

442
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 2: Watkins's gonna have a ninety arder again, And that's why I.

443
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 1: Think that his line is a little too high. It's

444
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 1: a little inflated here because there's two things working against

445
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: him in his game. First of all, you know this

446
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 1: Eagle team, I think they got I think they do

447
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 1: have to run the ball, and I think they have

448
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 1: to figure out how to run the ball. And I

449
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 1: think part of that is going to be, you know,

450
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 1: getting a guy like Zach Paschkal who's a better blocker

451
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 1: on the field at times, and they did that last week.

452
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 1: Crez Watkins snap counts, uh, he got out snapped by

453
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 1: Pascal last week, And for four weeks in a row,

454
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 1: Watkins snap counts have been decreasing. So you know, four

455
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 1: weeks ago it was seventy two, then fifty, then forty

456
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 1: two percent, then in the first playoff game thirty one percent,

457
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 1: and that's with Aj Brown a little bit gimpy in

458
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:31,920
Speaker 1: that game. For the first time all year, Pascal ran

459
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: more routes last week than Watkins, So that could go

460
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 1: back to Norman. I'm actually projecting it to go back

461
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,679
Speaker 1: to the normal season averages, and I'm still projecting him

462
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 1: under and the reason. The second reason being he's been

463
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 1: a completely different player with and without Dallas Goddard on

464
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 1: the field, because remember you got Brown, you got Devonte Smith. Uh,

465
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 1: you know the running backs are you know, they're always

466
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,199
Speaker 1: going to be there. They're playmakers like you like your backs.

467
00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 1: So Watkins is essentially always going to be the fifth

468
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: read unless Goddard's out. He might jump up to the

469
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 1: fourth read because you have Jack Stole at tight end

470
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 1: or talka Terra or whoever. So when he's on the

471
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 1: when he's the fifth read, which is essentially the games

472
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:15,640
Speaker 1: Goddard has played, his median receiving yardage in a game

473
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 1: is zero zero yards. He's had more games with a

474
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 1: straight up goose egg than he's had with positive yardage

475
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 1: receiving with Goddard active, And in the five games Goddard missed,

476
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 1: that's when Watkins pretty much did all his damage this

477
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:36,400
Speaker 1: season without Goddard. Crais Watkins four point eight targets per game,

478
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 1: three point six receptions, twenty six receiving yards per game,

479
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:44,120
Speaker 1: with Goddard one point nine targets, one point two receptions,

480
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 1: and sixteen receiving yards. But again that sixteen is overstating it.

481
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 1: It's just a couple of big games which you're gonna

482
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 1: get with with Watkins of long receptions, but the median

483
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:58,879
Speaker 1: is zero fourteen or fewer sixty two percent of the time,

484
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 1: So I think this line is way too high. I

485
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: have as medium projected around twelve. So I bet this

486
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 1: down to thirteen and a half. His target per route

487
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:12,679
Speaker 1: rate without god Her in the lineup nineteen percent, with

488
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 1: Goddard in the lineup eight point eight percent. He's being

489
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 1: targeted fewer than one every ten routes with got Her in,

490
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 1: and we saw them decrease his snaps, and one of

491
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 1: the Eagles beat reporters for the Athletic you know, made

492
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:26,679
Speaker 1: a good point it said, you know, that could have

493
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 1: been a product of, Okay, we just want to get

494
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 1: a more physical guy in against the Giants. Well you

495
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 1: would do that against the Niners as well, But also

496
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: it could have just been a product of self scouting

497
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:38,399
Speaker 1: over the two week by with Watkins not really productive

498
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 1: as a receiver and not really giving you much in

499
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 1: the run game. So you know, when this snapcounts decreasing

500
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,880
Speaker 1: four straight weeks, I think there's there's a good chance

501
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,159
Speaker 1: that that continues. But even if it doesn't and he

502
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 1: goes back to his season averages, I still have this

503
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: projected to go under so Quez under sixteen and a half.

504
00:24:59,000 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 1: That's my second bit.

505
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 2: If someone's worried about just like one long reception against

506
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers team, that's I think they've given up.

507
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:06,679
Speaker 2: But at least a twenty five yard reception in like

508
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 2: eight or nine straight games. You wouldn't also mind like

509
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 2: the under receptions, right, I wouldn't one and a half.

510
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wouldn't. I wouldn't mind that either. Generally speaking,

511
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 1: you tend to get more cheapness with receptions, like you.

512
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 2: Know, you could also have like a like a pitch, yeah,

513
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 2: or just.

514
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 1: A wide receiver screen, you know, one of those. But

515
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: all three Dallas receivers not named Ceede Lamb, the two,

516
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 1: three and four for Dallas all were at least ten

517
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 1: yards under their season average last week against San Francisco.

518
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,399
Speaker 1: So it's still a tough defense. Not one. I four C.

519
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 2: Watkins h And we both like the under overall, right,

520
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 2: So like yeah, leads itself to the under. So and

521
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 2: then what you're a third pick.

522
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:50,159
Speaker 1: So for my third pick of the Conference Championship Sunday

523
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 1: six pack, I'm going with Brock thirty under a half

524
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 1: an interception, and this is more of a numbers play,

525
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: but it There is a reason why I like this,

526
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: even though I do like the under, and that's because

527
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:05,919
Speaker 1: of the way I expect San Francisco to play. I

528
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 1: expect him to be run heavy yet again. And yes,

529
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 1: Philadelphia has been great. You know that they finished this

530
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,400
Speaker 1: regular season top five interception rate, But even after adjusting

531
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 1: for that, I'm showing value on this number down to

532
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 1: about plus one twelve. It's plus one twenty two right

533
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: now at FANDU, the official sponsor of the Action Network pod.

534
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 1: But you know, party, he has an interception rate of

535
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 1: one point seventy five percent, and because his attempts are down,

536
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 1: you know, the league average for attempts is around thirty four.

537
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 1: So when you're looking for a guy to not throw

538
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,120
Speaker 1: an interception, the first thing you're looking at is keep

539
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 1: the attempts down. He's been doing. He's only had thirty

540
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 1: five attempts one time. Every other time he has been

541
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: you know, in the high twenties or just clearing thirty.

542
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 1: So you know that's that's one factor. And then he's

543
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 1: been trunning up in terms of his decision making over

544
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 1: his last three games. PFF tracks turnover worthy throws over

545
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 1: his last three games. Seventy nine attempts zero. Now, I

546
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 1: know people are going to say, well, he had a

547
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,159
Speaker 1: dropped interception, Yeah, but that was tipped by Auk. There

548
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 1: are certain interceptions that are going to be unavoidable, which

549
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 1: is why you know there's a lot of aggression involved

550
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 1: with projecting interceptions. Hail Mary's and the half and the game.

551
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 1: You're gonna get picked on those a good amount of time.

552
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:25,479
Speaker 1: And tip balls you're gonna get picked on those. But

553
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,919
Speaker 1: Purdy has been avoiding the picks that he can avoid,

554
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 1: and it's been trending up over the last three games.

555
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 1: And I know a lot of people are also going

556
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 1: to say, well, what about the Eagles pressure. Well, Purty

557
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 1: got pressured on forty eight and a half percent of

558
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 1: his dropbacks last week against Dallas, so yeah, and he

559
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 1: didn't throw pick and three of his four picks and

560
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 1: five of his seven turnover worthy plays this year have

561
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 1: come one from a clean pocket. So Perdy's decision making

562
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 1: under pressure has actually been pretty spot on. Just because

563
00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 1: we're projecting a bump and pressure rate when facing the Eagles,

564
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 1: it's not really bumping up his interception projection as much

565
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 1: as it would for your average quarterback. Also a credit

566
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: to Kyle Shanahan's scheme because the forty nine ers have

567
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 1: also had like the most open window throws, the highest

568
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:18,439
Speaker 1: completion expected completion rate in this postseason just because of

569
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 1: the scheme. You're getting a lot of you know, receivers

570
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 1: running open and you're not really put in Party in

571
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 1: that position. And I don't even know if we've seen

572
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 1: the most run heavy Kyle Shanahan game plan that we

573
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 1: could see, because in the first game against Seattle, Party

574
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:36,160
Speaker 1: through thirty times for three hundred and thirty two yards,

575
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 1: and then last week against Dallas he throws twenty nine

576
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 1: times for two hundred and fourteen. But we've seen, you know,

577
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: with Jimmy G. We've seen attempts in the low twenties.

578
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: We've seen attempts in the teams with Jimmy G. So,

579
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 1: you know, against this Eagles team, especially after getting pressured

580
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 1: so much last week, I wouldn't be surprised if we

581
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 1: get our most run heavy game plan. You know that

582
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 1: we've seen out of Party in this postseason. So do

583
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 1: I think the Mark is just overrating this? You know,

584
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 1: this pretty interception prop just a widow I expect. I

585
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 1: expect there just to be a lot of kind of

586
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 1: long drives. Run the ball, you know, and that's how

587
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 1: you're gonna hit the under I'm not expecting like, Okay,

588
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 1: we get in the red zone, turn it over this

589
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 1: and that. Both of these quarterbacks hurts as well good

590
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 1: at protecting the football. So I'm more banking on long drives,

591
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 1: but just the quality of defense, you know, stopping them

592
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 1: in the red zone, getting off the field of time

593
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 1: or two on third down, things like that. Not necessarily

594
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 1: banking on turnovers and things like that. And I really

595
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 1: do think Shanahan, after you get pressured on half your dropbacks,

596
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 1: is going to kind of, you know, find a way

597
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: for that not to be an issue as much as

598
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 1: he can, at least this week.

599
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 2: All right, fair enough, Let's move on to the AFC

600
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 2: Championship game between the Bengals and Chiefs, who will meet

601
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 2: for a spot in the Super Bowl for a second

602
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 2: straight sea. If this sounds familiar, it should because they

603
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 2: use two teams met three times in twenty twenty two,

604
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 2: so this will be the fourth meeting in the past

605
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 2: thirteen months. The Bengals won and covered in all three,

606
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 2: all by three points, and the big storyline in this

607
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 2: game is the Mahomes ankle, which is why this line

608
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 2: has been all over the place. And you know, I

609
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 2: think that it flipped again today got up to Bengals

610
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 2: minus two and a half from the Chiefs being a favorite,

611
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 2: now it's flipped back to the Chiefs being a favorite.

612
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 2: There were some sharp groups that came in today at

613
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: two and a half. Mahomes was seen not limping in

614
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 2: the locker room. But still there's a lot of uncertainty

615
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 2: there with how healthy it'll be. If you want to

616
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 2: go to the trend route, you're not going to be

617
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 2: able to decide who'd have betten this game. If Mahomes

618
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 2: is an underdog here, he's seven to one and one

619
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 2: against the SPREBN closing as an underdog, although the one

620
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 2: loss was the only other time he's If he does

621
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 2: close an underdog here, he's only ever closed as an

622
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 2: underdog once before, and that was early this season when

623
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 2: he lost to the Bills. He's seventeen six and one

624
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 2: against the spread as either an underdog or favorite of

625
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 2: three or less. So if you want to back Homes

626
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 2: because those trends, well, that means you gotta fay. Joe

627
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 2: Burrows twenty and five against the spread over his past

628
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 2: twenty five starts, including a sixteen and one against the

629
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 2: spread streak against non division opponents. He's also nineteen and

630
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 2: seven against the spread away from home in his career,

631
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 2: and perhaps most impressive of all, he's fifteen to two

632
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 2: straight up in his past seventeen games against opponents with

633
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 2: winning records. They've also gone twenty two straight games without

634
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 2: losing by more than a field goal. When Jamar Chase starts,

635
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,239
Speaker 2: My favorite side is Joe Burrows twenty one to two

636
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 2: against the spread in his past twenty three starts against

637
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 2: teams that aren't or have never been the Cleveland Browns.

638
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 2: So you know these two quarterbacks, they're elite, and let's

639
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 2: throw out the trends and decide what's going to happen

640
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 2: in this game and who's going to cover. So let's

641
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 2: just start first with what happened in the other three

642
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 2: meetings in twenty twenty two. Bengals won twenty seven to

643
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 2: twenty four, twenty seven to twenty four, and thirty four

644
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 2: to thirty one. All three games hit at least five

645
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 2: ft one points. Chiefs held a lead in the second

646
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 2: half in all three, they were actually outscored which is

647
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 2: pretty crazy when you consider reading mahomes. So in those

648
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 2: three previous meetings, the Chiefs only scored twenty points after halftime.

649
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 2: The Bengals outscored them twenty six to six in the

650
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 2: fourth quarter and overtime in those three contests, six points

651
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter in overtime total in three games.

652
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 2: There's a reason why Barrow is thirty three to fourteen

653
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 2: and one against the spread in the second half in

654
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 2: his career. It's over seventy percent. He's fourteen and four

655
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 2: this year and an insane twenty nine eight and one

656
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 2: against the spread in the second half over the past

657
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 2: two seasons, seventy eight and a half percent. Why is that, Well,

658
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,959
Speaker 2: Number one, Barrow is elite, and he has e leade receivers.

659
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 2: He is cutch as hell, but also their defensive coordinator

660
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 2: has proven to be one of the best adjusters in

661
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 2: all of the NFL, especially against the top quarterbacks in

662
00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 2: the league. I went in last week and I said, look,

663
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 2: the Bengals have benefited from a pretty easy schedule of

664
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 2: opposing quarterbacks, but you cannot deny what they've done when

665
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 2: they've gone up against the best quarterbacks and look no

666
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 2: further than last week when they shut down the Bills

667
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 2: in Buffalo, so and it gets the spread perspective. I

668
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 2: do show a little bit of value on the Chiefs,

669
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 2: but I'm guessing at how healthy I think Mahomes is

670
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 2: going to be. I make the spread about Chiefs minus

671
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 2: three and a half. Mahomes is fully healthy without Mahomes.

672
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 2: I make it Chiefs plus three and a half. So

673
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 2: right now we're somewhere in the middle. I actually think

674
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 2: Mahomes is going to be okay from what I've seen

675
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 2: and heard, but again, I don't know anything. We're all

676
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 2: guessing for what it's worth. He did sprain and ankle

677
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 2: in the opener in twenty nineteen and high ankle sprain

678
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 2: got through it. The next week, he played and threw

679
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 2: for four hundred and fifty yards and four touchdowns against

680
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 2: the Raiders. Andy Reichmount said he's healthier than he was then.

681
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 2: Mahomes said the same thing. But again, it's playoff week.

682
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 2: How much can you how much stock can you put

683
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 2: into what these players are saying in the press conference?

684
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 2: But I, for one, think that he's going to be fine.

685
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to run as much. I

686
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 2: think they're going to have to change the playbook a

687
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 2: lot in what they do. But I think it's gonna

688
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 2: be a lot of quick passing and he's still going

689
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:10,400
Speaker 2: to have success throwing the ball as he normally does.

690
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 2: And because I think Mahome is gonna be healthier, then

691
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 2: I think the market is implying. I think that there's

692
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 2: value on the over, and I think that there's some

693
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,399
Speaker 2: value in the Chiefs, but it's a guessing game. I'm

694
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:22,280
Speaker 2: not betting it. I'm going to bet that in props

695
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 2: in a way. So like for example, I do like

696
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 2: Mahomes over passing yards. It's not going to be one

697
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 2: of my official picks, but I think I played a

698
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 2: bunch of that's in the two seventies today because I

699
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 2: think it's going to be healthy. I also think that

700
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 2: you can rely on the Bengals run dye, which has

701
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 2: been very good when readers in there, and then Mahomes.

702
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:41,879
Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to be running a lot

703
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 2: that takes another avenue away of yards. And then instead

704
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 2: of betting the Chiefs in the over, which I lean,

705
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 2: Mahomes passing yards is kind of a hedge that works

706
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 2: in either scenario. So if he's healthy, you're getting this

707
00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 2: at a discount and I think all clear three hundred

708
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 2: yards if he's not healthy, and I don't think that.

709
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 2: You know, obviously there's risk that he comes out of

710
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:07,359
Speaker 2: the game, like he gets too hurt. But whatever, there's

711
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 2: risk that didens a Burrow too. It happens with anybody.

712
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 2: Obviously it's a little higher for Mahomes, but they're gonna

713
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 2: have to lock him in jail and get him out

714
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 2: of the game. But if he's if he's not healthy,

715
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,720
Speaker 2: and you know, it's it's a detriment to the team.

716
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 2: They're gonna be playing from behind, and then you're in

717
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:23,839
Speaker 2: this behind state and he's throwing. He's gonna be throwing

718
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 2: even more. And where I think it could hurt him

719
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 2: the most and why I'm gonna stay away from the

720
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,280
Speaker 2: total in the side is it is his plant foot.

721
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 2: And Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, could

722
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 2: go down as the best ever. If there is you know,

723
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 2: one slight on him, it's that at times, and it's

724
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:39,959
Speaker 2: also what makes him great. He'll have an erratic throw

725
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:42,439
Speaker 2: right and it'll be a turnover. And the red zone

726
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 2: he's just trying to make plays, which is what he

727
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 2: does now, with this injury being on his plant foot,

728
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,439
Speaker 2: the mechanics might not be as smooth, and he might

729
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 2: have a couple more erratic throws, which then could lead

730
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:54,919
Speaker 2: to turnovers. And then that increases the variance in the game.

731
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 2: And maybe they drive down the field and he throws two,

732
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,040
Speaker 2: you know, red zone turnovers in this game. Then you

733
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 2: wouldn't want to be sitting with the Chiefs in an overticket.

734
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 2: But the yards will be there. But let me get

735
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 2: into my second pick of the Conference Championship Sunday six back.

736
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 2: I'm going to go. Let's go with the one I

737
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 2: think you're gonna disagree with. I'm gonna go with Joe

738
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 2: Burrow over what's seventeen and a half rushing yards. For reference,

739
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 2: Burrow ran it nine times for forty eight yards forty

740
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 2: six after two kneel downs against the Chiefs earlier this season.

741
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 2: He also had six attempts for thirty one yards last

742
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 2: week in Buffalo. Now, the biggest question for me is,

743
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,280
Speaker 2: you got to remember last week, it's still the Bengals

744
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,479
Speaker 2: offensive line going into that game. Once that conditions happened,

745
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 2: there's a reason I bet the over. You can't get

746
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 2: a pass rush in those conditions and it really helped

747
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,239
Speaker 2: the Bengals offensive line this week. It might not be

748
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 2: as easy for this Bengals offensive line with the injuries

749
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 2: that they're dealing with, which I think is going to

750
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 2: force Barrow out of the pocket more often. And look,

751
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 2: it's a huge game, everything's on the line. I think

752
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 2: these elite quarterbacks are more willing to run. Obviously Mahomes

753
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 2: can't do it with an injury, but I think Burrow

754
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 2: is going to be really willing to run here when

755
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 2: he needs to do it, and against the chief scheme,

756
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 2: it really invites quarterbacks to do it and have success

757
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:18,839
Speaker 2: when you can. The Chiefs have allowed the second since

758
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 2: the bye week. They played a bunch of statues before

759
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 2: they're by Since the bye week, they allowed the second

760
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,760
Speaker 2: most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Here are the following

761
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:30,760
Speaker 2: outputs that they allowed over eleven games, excluding meals. Malik

762
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 2: Wells seven for forty one, Trevor Lawrence four for twenty six,

763
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,959
Speaker 2: Herbert five for seventeen, Bryce Perkins eight for forty five,

764
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 2: Burrow nine for forty eight, Russell Wilson four for fifty seven,

765
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 2: Davis Mills three for twenty three Gino Smith three for sixteen,

766
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson four for twenty seven, Jared Sidhams seven for fifty,

767
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:53,240
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence three for twenty six. Over those eleven games,

768
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 2: posing quarterbacks averaged five point two carries for thirty four

769
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 2: and a half yards per game. They eclipsed twenty two yards.

770
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 2: Now we just got to get the eighteen they clubs

771
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 2: twenty two yards and nine of those eleven contests. I

772
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 2: think the matchup and then the offensive line issues and

773
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:12,840
Speaker 2: then Burrow's increased willingness to run. Here official pick Burrow

774
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,359
Speaker 2: over rushing yards. I also like the Mahomes over passing yards.

775
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 2: I think there's some correlation there. So you have any

776
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 2: thoughts on either of those props.

777
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually liked this. I have him at nineteen

778
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 1: and he's actually been going up in my model and

779
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 1: rushing because he's scrambled a lot more, you know, after

780
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 1: the bye, So leading into the buy, he's averaging one

781
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: point four scrambles per game, and then since the buy

782
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 1: and including the playoffs, he's up to two point one

783
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 1: over his last eight games, two point three scrambles per game.

784
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 2: So he's scramb correlated with two things with like more

785
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:49,800
Speaker 2: meaningful games and then offensive line injuries.

786
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, so you know that. And scramble right, by

787
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 1: the way, is very sticky quickly, which which means that

788
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 1: you could kind of throw out some of the older

789
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 1: data as you get new data. Like I only add

790
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:04,240
Speaker 1: about sixty four dropbacks of regression of you know, we average,

791
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:07,280
Speaker 1: which is about about two games worth, if about thirty

792
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 1: you know, thirty five dropbacks a game or so, So

793
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 1: what a less than two games works for Burrow, who's

794
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 1: dropping it back like forty times a game? Uh so, yeah,

795
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 1: so you know when I see something like that, I

796
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 1: adjust quickly. So all these quarterbacks, I mean we heard

797
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 1: it with dak We heard it with Burrough. You know,

798
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 1: Mahomes if he wasn't injured. We see that every year

799
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 1: mahomes rushing production increases when you get to the postseason.

800
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:30,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just these.

801
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 1: Quarterbacks pick pride in, you know, get calling their own

802
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 1: number when it matters most.

803
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 2: If I had a guess before it get into my

804
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 2: final pick. And this is a complete gas because with

805
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 2: the news and what we're gonna see, I do think

806
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 2: that more sharp money is going to come in on

807
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 2: the over and the Chiefs and I don't know if

808
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 2: it'll get to three, But if you like the Bengals,

809
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 2: I would wait. And if you like the under I

810
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 2: would wait. If you like the Chiefs, you know, and

811
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,360
Speaker 2: you're right around a pick plus one, I think I

812
00:39:58,360 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 2: would take that. I think that there's only gonna be

813
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 2: more po positive news on the Chiefs, which is gonna

814
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 2: help the over, and then there's gonna be only more

815
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,320
Speaker 2: chart money on the Chiefs and over on the assumption

816
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 2: that mahomes Okab mean I already saw like the he

817
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 2: looked fine walking out of the press conference, so I

818
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 2: don't know how much he could take from that. But

819
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 2: that's just my gut field now again, complete guests. But

820
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 2: my third pick and final pick of the Conference Championship

821
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I'm gonna go with I think one

822
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 2: that you might agree with. I'm gonna go with Samaji

823
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 2: p Ryan over fourteen and a half receiving yards. So

824
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 2: we're going back to a get this quick because it

825
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 2: mean it's gonna end up fifteen. We're gonna go against

826
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 2: the Chiefs.

827
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 1: Fifteen and a half. But I want you, I want

828
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 1: you to get to fourteen at to see.

829
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 2: Samaji p Ryan it's probably gonna end at sixteen, I guess.

830
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 2: But here's my thinking on it. So this goes back

831
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 2: to the fact that I again I think i'd lean

832
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:00,320
Speaker 2: the over, and I think that I lean the I

833
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 2: think the Bengals will be maybe playing from behind. I

834
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 2: think it's gonna be really competitive, close pie scoring games,

835
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 2: similar to what we've seen in the past. And I

836
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 2: also think that the Bengals offensive line issues are now

837
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:14,840
Speaker 2: not being talked about enough because of what happened in Buffalo,

838
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,319
Speaker 2: but not enough people realize that you cannot generate pass

839
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 2: rush in those conditions. It is a nightmare. I tweet

840
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 2: out to Tom Brady thing all the time. He just says, look,

841
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 2: the d lineman can't get a push. So I think

842
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 2: that there's still issues there, which means and you even

843
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 2: saw this last week, which means that you want pe

844
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,320
Speaker 2: Ran in there more on a number of plays on

845
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 2: third downs, passing downs, and I heard Kerner talk about this.

846
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 2: He's in there in the two minute drow or running

847
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 2: backs to really rack up rushing yards and attempts, but

848
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 2: he's the better pass blocker. And I think that the

849
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 2: offensive line will be much more of an issue this

850
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:53,360
Speaker 2: week with you know, you know, maybe it's snows and

851
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:56,360
Speaker 2: there's ice this week, trying to deal with Chris Jones

852
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:57,880
Speaker 2: and company. And I think that the Chiefs are going

853
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,720
Speaker 2: to know, hey, look we're coming after this all defensive line.

854
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:02,840
Speaker 2: So what does that lend itself to? I think again,

855
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 2: this de Burrow scrambles, which was my first play, but

856
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 2: I think he Ryan being in there more. And then

857
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 2: also under pressure, what do you do. It's like you're

858
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 2: scrambling or you're jumping it off to p Ryan and

859
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:16,879
Speaker 2: then you're getting rid of the ball quicker and he has,

860
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 2: you know, the higher route rate, he's getting targeted more

861
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,080
Speaker 2: when he's in the game. So I think that there's

862
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:25,760
Speaker 2: value on this number. And then you're going up against

863
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 2: you know, a Chief's defense has to worry about all

864
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 2: these weapons and they already struggle with defending running backs there,

865
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 2: you know, bottom five in the NFL. Unfortunately, we were

866
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 2: throwing to every other running back besides Etm who didn't

867
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:38,919
Speaker 2: even play. He scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter

868
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 2: and then sat the rest of the game. Very bizarre.

869
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,040
Speaker 2: Even he got he still got the eight team basic

870
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:47,239
Speaker 2: barely playing p Ryan lucky. Last week he had five

871
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 2: catches for thirty one yards. I expect a similar output

872
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 2: this week. He did have six catches on seven targets

873
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:56,040
Speaker 2: with forty nine yards against the Chiefs earlier this season,

874
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,479
Speaker 2: but pretty poor comparison because mixing didn't play in that game.

875
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 2: So if you go back to last year's AFC Championship

876
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 2: game when mixing did play, p Ryan had three grabs

877
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 2: on four targets for forty three yards. Had a big

878
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 2: expose to play.

879
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 1: So did he did he miss a touchdown on the

880
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:10,399
Speaker 1: fourth one? Yeah?

881
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 2: Fourth target?

882
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 1: Was that supposed to be like a long twenty touchdown

883
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 1: or something?

884
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 3: Yeah?

885
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 2: Yeah? So yeah, I like p Ryan over fifteen receiving yards,

886
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 2: and then what's connected to that is mixing under three

887
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 2: and a half receptions Obviously correlated here, but I just

888
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:26,839
Speaker 2: think that he's not going to be in for as

889
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 2: many I think he's actually gonna be in for even

890
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:31,359
Speaker 2: fewer passing downs and third downs and two minute drial

891
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 2: snaps than he's been because this offense line is going

892
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 2: to be a bigger issue this week. So yeah, I

893
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 2: think mixing under three and a half is the correlated

894
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 2: play that I played with obviously, So obviously if they're

895
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 2: throwing the mixing, and there a bunch of third downs.

896
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 2: They're throwing them a bunch. He's gonna go over, and

897
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 2: it's probably p Run is probably not, although he still

898
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 2: could have you know, uh, he still could go over.

899
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 2: But there's obviously some correlation here. But third pick is

900
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 2: some I J p Ryan over called fifteen receiving yards.

901
00:43:57,239 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, so last postseason, thirty eight routes, mixing twenty four routes,

902
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 1: so nineteen to twelve per game in favor of p

903
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 1: Ran in terms of the routes, and if you go

904
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 1: by percentage, the average route participation rate for p Ryan

905
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 1: over the last two games is forty nine percent, so

906
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 1: he's in on forty nine. He's running a route on

907
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 1: forty nine percent of the dropbacks. That doesn't count pass blocking,

908
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 1: but he's running a route forty nine percent of the

909
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:26,479
Speaker 1: pass blocking snaps of the pass snaps, and mixing thirty

910
00:44:26,520 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 1: one percent. So there's a clear bias in favor of

911
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,399
Speaker 1: p rind. Yeah, it's mixing. Seems to be the guy

912
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 1: losing out here. That's probably a sharp play. I wouldn't

913
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 1: go too far beyond I do have it at about sixteen,

914
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 1: so I wouldn't go too far beyond sixteen, because I

915
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 1: think I think that open to like thirteen and a

916
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:47,439
Speaker 1: half or something. It has been bet up, But yeah,

917
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 1: I think that's the right play here. Oh and by

918
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 1: the way, just in terms of the side for the

919
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:54,840
Speaker 1: Chiefs Bengals, you know, it's another one where it's just

920
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 1: you know, we're kind of dealing within these this key number,

921
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:00,040
Speaker 1: these key numbers of three on either.

922
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, Cola's gonna take the Bengals have got to three. Yeah,

923
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 2: I mean the Chiefs have got to three, and I'd

924
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 2: probably take the Bengals. I have got to three with

925
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 2: this uncertainty and we're just sitting there in the middle

926
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:11,439
Speaker 2: of them all.

927
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 1: But my issue is that, you know, it's kind of like,

928
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,920
Speaker 1: at least with the Niners Eagles game, it's like the

929
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:21,720
Speaker 1: uncertainty kind of leads you to a place where you say, okay,

930
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 1: like we're uncertain about how these offenses are going to perform,

931
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:27,399
Speaker 1: but we should expect the defenses to play well either way.

932
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 1: Whereas in this game is uncertainty as you know, Housey

933
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 1: Mahomes is gonna play, which effects you know, obviously scoring

934
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 1: and decide. And then on the other side, this Bengal team.

935
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 1: I mean you mentioned Anna Rumo. He's always figuring something else,

936
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:45,279
Speaker 1: you know, some other kind of piccocktic, some kind of

937
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:49,279
Speaker 1: elaborate ruse against these elite quarterbacks, to where at this

938
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 1: point it's like, I know the options at his disposal

939
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 1: in terms of flummoxing these quarterbacks. It's like, we could

940
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:57,520
Speaker 1: send real pressure, we could send simulated pressure. We could

941
00:45:57,560 --> 00:45:59,440
Speaker 1: drop eight into coverage, we could play more man, we

942
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 1: could play more like. There's all these different things that

943
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:03,759
Speaker 1: the Bengals can do. But the way they're kind of

944
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 1: mixing it up into a unique game plan week in

945
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 1: week out, that I is you know, that's above my paper.

946
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:13,320
Speaker 1: I that is something that that's what makes him special

947
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 1: is that he's continuing to do things that we can't

948
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 1: predict and that the other team can't predict. And that's

949
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 1: why it's working. And so and then on top of that,

950
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:23,279
Speaker 1: you could come out with a one game plan in

951
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 1: the first half. It may not work at all, and

952
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 1: he could still adjust and and end up you know,

953
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 1: dominating in the second half and and the Bengals win

954
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 1: or the total goes under. So there's just the uncertainty

955
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:36,880
Speaker 1: goes in both directions. For me, which is why probably

956
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:38,799
Speaker 1: not gonna have a play on the side. Like you said,

957
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 1: I think that's the three either way, I think that

958
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 1: would be that would be a situation where I say, Okay,

959
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 1: it might be worth it here, but especially with where

960
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:47,240
Speaker 1: it's been landing on these last three games.

961
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:48,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I doubt you're looking at it like the what

962
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:51,319
Speaker 2: he did last year in the playoffs was in the

963
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 2: nice Chips get in the second athletes dropped eight and just

964
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 2: completely flummoxed Mahomes. That's not gonna be the plan here.

965
00:46:57,480 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 2: I can tell you that he's not gonna let Mahomes,

966
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 2: he's banged up, just sit with no one coming at

967
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 2: him and making him think. So maybe like he switches

968
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 2: it up and it does that sometimes. But I'm curious

969
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 2: to see the looks that he's going to have early

970
00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 2: on to test Mahomes and force him into some potentially

971
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:20,280
Speaker 2: tough situations with his mobility potentially hampered. Might bet stuff alive.

972
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 2: So keep an eye on Action Network app. And like

973
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 2: we said earlier, Chris, we'll have an in depth review

974
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:28,840
Speaker 2: on the NFC Championship and I will have one on

975
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 2: the AFC Championship. To make sure you check those out

976
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:33,399
Speaker 2: on actionnetwork dot com the Action Network Gap.

977
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 1: And I'll just mentioned real quick before we close out

978
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 1: for this game. For the Chiefs Bengals game, I did

979
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 1: bet a couple of props already. They're probably by the

980
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 1: time you listen to this, there's probably gonna be no

981
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:44,720
Speaker 1: value up, but I'll just let people notice in case

982
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:46,680
Speaker 1: I did, I bet Hayden Hurst over three and a

983
00:47:46,719 --> 00:47:49,480
Speaker 1: half catches. I's caught at least four and ten of

984
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 1: his fifteen games a season, so I would bet that

985
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 1: up till minus one ninety five. I got it at

986
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:56,839
Speaker 1: one fifty minus won seventy two one fan do as

987
00:47:56,840 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 1: we record this, So still about twenty points of value

988
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 1: you compared to where I would cut off at minus

989
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 1: one ninety five for Hearst. But yeah, he's caught at

990
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 1: least four and ten to fifteen Against the Chiefs. He

991
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 1: got hurt, so he only ran six routes, but he

992
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:12,799
Speaker 1: was targeted three times on those six routes, so he

993
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 1: was on his way to a monster volume game. All right.

994
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 1: That is gonna wrap it for our six pack for

995
00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 1: the Conference Championship Round on the Action Network Podcast presented

996
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:27,319
Speaker 1: by FANDU to recap Stuck has samaj p Ryan over

997
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:30,960
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half receiving yards, Joe Burrow over seventeen

998
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards, and Jalen Hurts under forty

999
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 1: nine and a half rushing yards. For me, San fran

1000
00:48:37,520 --> 00:48:41,279
Speaker 1: Cisco forty nine or Philadelphia Eagle under forty six and

1001
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 1: a half. Like it down to forty six, but you

1002
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 1: might get a forty seven, So not necessarily in a

1003
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:51,719
Speaker 1: huge rush to bet this. Qus Watkins under sixteen and

1004
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:53,360
Speaker 1: a half receiving yards, we bet it down at thirteen

1005
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 1: and a half and brock Perty under a half of

1006
00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:00,160
Speaker 1: interception plus one to twenty two with bet that to

1007
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:05,920
Speaker 1: plus one twelve. Now it's time for the Conference Championship

1008
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 1: coaches pep Talk.

1009
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 2: This is by far the worst team that has ever

1010
00:49:10,600 --> 00:49:11,799
Speaker 2: sat in this locker room.

1011
00:49:11,920 --> 00:49:14,600
Speaker 1: There's not one of you, not one of you that's.

1012
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:15,120
Speaker 2: Learned to hot a win.

1013
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 1: All right. This week's coaches pep Talk comes to us

1014
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:22,680
Speaker 1: courtesy of the nineteen eighty nine film Dead Poets Society,

1015
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:26,359
Speaker 1: and we dedicated to the Chiefs and Patrick mahomes here.

1016
00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 1: I mean, they haven't really seized the day the last

1017
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:33,800
Speaker 1: three times against the Cincinnati team but I mean Mahomes

1018
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:35,799
Speaker 1: is supposed to be this legend. It's all right there

1019
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 1: in front of you. Just got to knock off this

1020
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 1: Bengal team. Get back to the super Bowl, all right.

1021
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:41,400
Speaker 1: Dedicated to you Patrick.

1022
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 4: The Latin term for that sentiment is carpei deem.

1023
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:48,479
Speaker 5: Who knows what that means, carpe diem, that ceaz the day,

1024
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:52,320
Speaker 5: seize the day because we are food for worms LEDs,

1025
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 5: because believe it or not, each and every one of

1026
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:57,400
Speaker 5: us in this room is one day going to stop breathing,

1027
00:49:57,640 --> 00:49:59,240
Speaker 5: turn cold and die.

1028
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:00,759
Speaker 2: Step forward over.

1029
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 4: Here, pruise some of the faces from the past, they're

1030
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 4: not that different from you. Are full of hormones, just

1031
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:10,239
Speaker 4: like you, invincible, just like you feel the world is

1032
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:14,600
Speaker 4: their oyster. These boys are now fertilizing daffodils. If you

1033
00:50:14,680 --> 00:50:17,360
Speaker 4: listen real close, you can hear them whisper their legacy

1034
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 4: to you.

1035
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:25,800
Speaker 5: Starts make your loves extraordin.

1036
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 1: All right. That is going to wrap it up for

1037
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 1: our Conference Championship Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel. You

1038
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 1: can find Stucky on Twitter at Stucky Too. You can

1039
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:38,399
Speaker 1: find me on Twitter at Chris Raybon. You can find

1040
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 1: us at those same handles on the free, award winning

1041
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 1: Action Network app. Of course, you can find all of

1042
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 1: our content, including Stuckies AFC Championship preview, my NFC Championship

1043
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:53,319
Speaker 1: Preview at actionnetwork dot com or in the Action Network app. So,

1044
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,800
Speaker 1: until next time, good luck and let's get this money

1045
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:09,439
Speaker 1: prop joke. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1046
00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1047
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:14,440
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1048
00:51:14,480 --> 00:51:15,240
Speaker 1: hundred gambler