1 00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: Over the past year, a particular strain of the flu 2 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: has been making headlines around the world. 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,640 Speaker 2: Some types of bird flu exists harmlessly in wild birds, 4 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 2: but a new, highly contagious strain is fatal to chickens 5 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:18,760 Speaker 2: and it's spreading around the US. New reports from January 6 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 2: document millions of infected birds in nearly every state. 7 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 1: Despite its name, this bird flu has not stayed in birds. 8 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 1: It's known as H five N one, and in the 9 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 1: US alone, it's been found in bobcats, bears, dolphins, foxes, skunks, 10 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:38,360 Speaker 1: and otters. And as the list of infected mammals keeps growing, 11 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 1: humans are getting nervous because bird flu sometimes does make 12 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,559 Speaker 1: its way to people, and when that happens, it can 13 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: be deadly. So today we're going to try to understand 14 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 1: where the flu comes from, how it jumps from species 15 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: to species, and what this all means for humans. Also, 16 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: we'll hear an account from the front lines of influence 17 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 1: of research, And by front lines, I mean a little 18 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 1: island in the North Atlantic that's full of seals. 19 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 3: You've got a bunch of scientists all geared up in 20 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 3: our field gear and we are crawling through army crawl 21 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 3: style through the dunes to sneak up on a seal pup. 22 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 3: It can be somewhat comical if you didn't know what 23 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:22,479 Speaker 3: was going on. 24 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: I'm Jacob Goldstein. This is incubation. Okay, you ready, Let's 25 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 1: talk about viruses. 26 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 4: Okay, let's talk about viruses. 27 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 1: For today's episode, I called up David Kwalman. He's a 28 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 1: journalist who writes about ecology and evolutionary biology, and he 29 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:47,199 Speaker 1: wrote a book called Spillover Animal Infections and the Next 30 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: Human Pandemic. David has spent years tracking viruses like the 31 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 1: flu across animal species and he's documented their spillover into 32 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 1: the human world. I'd like to talk about when people 33 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: figured out that flu was a disease of birds. 34 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 4: Yes, there is a wonderful eminent influenza scientist and physician 35 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 4: named Rob Webster, originally a New Zealander who has been 36 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 4: at Saint Jude's Memorial Children's Hospital for most of his 37 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 4: career studying influenza, and back in the nineteen sixties I 38 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:26,640 Speaker 4: think it was nineteen sixty seven, he and a friend 39 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:31,799 Speaker 4: of his were walking along a beach in Australia and 40 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:36,679 Speaker 4: they found a bunch of dead birds lying on the beach. Shearwaters. 41 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 4: What killed all these birds all of a sudden. Well 42 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:41,920 Speaker 4: then they wondered whether, I don't know, could it have 43 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 4: been maybe an influenza. Maybe we should do a little 44 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 4: research on that. So they went to their boss and 45 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 4: they said, we want to go to the Great Barrier 46 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 4: Reef and live on an island for a few weeks 47 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:59,240 Speaker 4: and sampled dead birds and any birds that we can 48 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 4: catch and see if we can find influenza. And their 49 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 4: boss happened to know that Webster was a passionate sport fisherman, 50 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 4: and he looked at these two young guys and he says, 51 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 4: you guys are delusional. Webster told me that verbatim. He said, 52 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 4: this man looked at them and said, you guys are 53 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:21,679 Speaker 4: delusional if you think I'm going to pay for you 54 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 4: to go and live on an island off the Great 55 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:28,359 Speaker 4: Barrier Reef and fish. But they persist, and eventually they 56 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 4: get a small stipend for the who so they go 57 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 4: out there and do this research and they find flu 58 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 4: in birds. And from that effort and a lot of 59 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 4: research that followed after it. But thanks largely to Rob 60 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 4: Webster and his friend, we know now that all of 61 00:03:54,240 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 4: the human influenza A type viruses that infect us come 62 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 4: from wild aquatic birds. 63 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 1: Huh. And to ask sort of the dumb question, why 64 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 1: is that important? Why is that a big deal? 65 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 4: Well, with any sort of viral threat that's getting into 66 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:20,840 Speaker 4: humans periodically, dramatically, murderously, it's important to know how how 67 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 4: is that getting into humans, so we can prevent them 68 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 4: from getting into us. 69 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 1: So let's talk about H five N one. It's been 70 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 1: around for a while. 71 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 4: Right, This version of H five N one has been 72 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 4: around since nineteen ninety six. It was found killing some birds, 73 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 4: and then in two thousand and five it killed a 74 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 4: large number of bar headed geese at a place called 75 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 4: Chinghai Lake in western China. From there it has gone 76 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 4: from infecting wild birds to infecting domestic birds and then 77 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 4: infecting mammals. 78 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 1: I want to just talk for a minute about the 79 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:05,239 Speaker 1: influenza virus. It's interesting, right, It's interesting how it works, 80 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: how it functions. So just like, tell me about the 81 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 1: influenza virus. 82 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 4: The influenza viruses belong to a family of RNA viruses, 83 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 4: meaning that their genome, the little information molecule inside the 84 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 4: protein capsule of the virus, is written in the molecule 85 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 4: RNA rather than DNA. DNA is the famous double helix molecule. 86 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 4: It's very stable, it has self repairing mechanisms, and so 87 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 4: when it copies itself, it corrects its mistakes, doesn't make 88 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 4: very many mistakes. When RNA, a single strand of RNA 89 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 4: copies itself, it makes a lot of mistakes. RNA viruses 90 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 4: evolve quickly and are capable of jumping from one kind 91 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:51,799 Speaker 4: of host into another. The influenza viruses also have another trick. 92 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:56,479 Speaker 4: They have segmented genomes. So their genomes twelve to fourteen 93 00:05:56,560 --> 00:06:03,840 Speaker 4: thousand letters of RNA is segmented into eight segments that 94 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 4: pop apart between one and the next. So imagine an engine, 95 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 4: a locomotive, and six box cars and a caboose, and 96 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 4: that's your influenza virus. 97 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 1: So now we have this virus, the flu virus, and 98 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:24,559 Speaker 1: the whole genome can change quickly and does change quickly 99 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 1: because it's RNA rather than DNA. And on top of that, 100 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: you have this sort of segmented you know, railcar like 101 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 1: nature that allows for kind of rapid change as well. 102 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 4: And that rapid change is accomplished by swapping of pieces 103 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 4: with other viruses. If two different particles of influenza replicate 104 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 4: themselves in the same cell at the same time, then 105 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 4: there is this event, this trick called reassortment that can occur. 106 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:59,600 Speaker 1: And that reassortment is really bad for say, our immune system. Right, 107 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 1: and suddenly we've never seen anything like this one before. 108 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 4: That's right, that's right. And so why does a virus 109 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 4: get called H five N one? The numbers refer to 110 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 4: the fact that there are you know, fifteen or twenty 111 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 4: variations of the possible H segment and a number of 112 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 4: other possible variations of the end segment. So you have 113 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 4: H five N one, H two and nine, and the 114 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 4: H and the end. 115 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: Are proteins that are on the surface of the virus, right, 116 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 1: and so that our immune system record, that's correct. So okay, 117 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 1: so we have this virus. It has this ability to 118 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 1: change very quickly. How does it go from species to species? 119 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 1: We know that it's largely in birds. How does it 120 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: move among species? 121 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 4: Well, by contact is the first answer to that. That's 122 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 4: the ecology side. A wild bird becomes infected with an influenza, 123 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 4: let's say a duck, a wild duck. Rob Webster says, 124 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 4: the duck is the trojan horse when it comes to 125 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 4: bird flu avian influenza. 126 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 1: Like it I like a semi mixed metaphor. 127 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 4: What he means by that is it's the secret carrier. 128 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 4: When a duck becomes infected with avian influenza at least 129 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 4: many types of avian influenza, it doesn't show symptoms, it 130 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:28,720 Speaker 4: doesn't fall down. It continues to migrate and congregate with 131 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 4: other birds, carrying the virus and pooping it out into lakes, ponds, 132 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:42,439 Speaker 4: streams wherever it goes, depositing this little gift of virus, 133 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 4: and other birds then are susceptible to that virus when 134 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 4: they pick it up. And then if your chickens and 135 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 4: your geese start to fall dead, you might think about 136 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 4: that trojan horse in the form of a duck that 137 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 4: came through and brought that virus. 138 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 1: Okay, so now it's gone from bird to bird. How 139 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:02,959 Speaker 1: does it go from bird to mammal? 140 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 4: A virus such as influenza gets into animal cells by 141 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 4: attaching to particular receptors on the surface of those cells. 142 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 4: In birds, it attaches to a particular kind of receptor. 143 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 4: Humans have a different kind of receptor. Pigs have both 144 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:29,439 Speaker 4: the bird like and the mammalian receptor. So a pig 145 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 4: can become infected with a virus that is adapted to 146 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:36,319 Speaker 4: attaching to the bird receptor, and then while it's multiplying 147 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 4: in the pig, that virus can evolve to be able 148 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 4: to attach also to the mammal type receptor. When it 149 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 4: comes out of the pigs, it's capable of infecting humans. 150 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: Ah, so it's easy for a pig to get bird flu, 151 00:09:55,520 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 1: and pigs are this sort of mixing vessel basically, where 152 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:04,719 Speaker 1: a bird flu can mutate into a flu that can 153 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 1: infect other kinds of mammals, including humans. That's right, Okay, 154 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: So I think now we have a really good base 155 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 1: of knowledge to talk about H five N one, this 156 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: strain of flu that is currently infecting birds. First, tell 157 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 1: me the scope of it, like how much is it 158 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 1: infecting birds? How many birds is it infecting? 159 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 4: Well, this version of H five N one for the 160 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 4: last couple of years has been circling the planet. It's 161 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 4: probably killing millions of wild birds. And if and when 162 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 4: it gets into those bird species, wildbird species that are endangered, 163 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 4: like the hooping crane with nine hundred individuals on the planet, 164 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 4: or the California condor with maybe three hundred individuals, it 165 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 4: has the potential to knock those out entirely, to drive 166 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 4: both of those species over the brink of extinction. 167 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:06,439 Speaker 1: You've described what's happening with age five in one as 168 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 1: a kind of pandemic that is happening right now. 169 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 4: Yes, for birds, For wild birds, it's a pandemic, and 170 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 4: for domestic birds it's a pandemic. If you have a 171 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 4: million chickens on a poultry farm and the bird flu 172 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,800 Speaker 4: comes in by way of a duck that happens to 173 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 4: come and poop in their water trough and some of 174 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 4: those chickens get infected, that virus can spread through those 175 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 4: million chickens very quickly, which means billions and billions and 176 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 4: trillions and trillions of viral particles replicating. Each time the 177 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 4: virus replicates itself, there's a potential for it to make mistakes, 178 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 4: to have a mutation, a random mutation, and several of 179 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 4: those random mutations can create a virus that can infect 180 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 4: the guy who's cleaning out the cages. So the fact 181 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 4: that we have thirty three billion chickens on this planet 182 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 4: at a given moment means that there is this huge 183 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 4: petri dish for the encouragement of evolution in the bird 184 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 4: flu virus. Millions of birds in poultry operations around the 185 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 4: world have either died or been killed preventively to stop 186 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 4: the spread of this this virus in commercial operations. 187 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:31,719 Speaker 1: And infections of people have been thankfully rare so far, Yes, 188 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 1: they have been rare. Right And crucially, there's no evidence 189 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 1: that it can go from person to person. It just 190 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 1: goes from bird to person when people are working very 191 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:41,439 Speaker 1: very closely with birds. 192 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 4: So far, Yes, that is being watched very carefully, although 193 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:50,319 Speaker 4: probably not as carefully as it should be watched. There 194 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 4: is such a randomness, such an element of randomness involved 195 00:12:54,920 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 4: in influenza evolution, that you can know what its capacity 196 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 4: to evolve quickly is, but you can't say what's going 197 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 4: to happen tomorrow. 198 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: Plainly, the terrible day that we hope will not come 199 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 1: is when there is demonstrated human to human transmission of 200 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 1: H five and one short of that, what should I 201 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 1: look out for, like, as a person who wants to 202 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 1: be well informed about this, Like, what's the signal that 203 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 1: I need to, you know, buy some bottle of water 204 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 1: and lock the door. 205 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 4: Well, one of the signals that is increasing in volume 206 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,719 Speaker 4: is the infection of mammals with H five N one 207 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 4: bird flu. So when you see another story about well, 208 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 4: bird flu just killed another porpoise, bird flu just killed 209 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 4: another dolphin, another seal. That is a warning alarm, and 210 00:13:57,760 --> 00:13:59,959 Speaker 4: the more it happens, the loud of the alarm gain. 211 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 1: We'll be back with more in just a minute. My 212 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: guest for the second half of the show is Wendy 213 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: per Year. She's a molecular virologist at the Coming School 214 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 1: of Veterinary Medicine at Tuffts University and her job is 215 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 1: looking out for that key warning sign that David Kwaman 216 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 1: was talking about. She studies wild mammals to try and 217 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 1: detect when they're being infected with H five N one. 218 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 3: It's H five N one two three four four B. 219 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 3: It's like it's very it just rolls off the tongue right. 220 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 1: Wendy told me about a moment last spring when she 221 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 1: got an alarming phone call. It came from Linda Dohity, 222 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: who runs an organization called Marine Mammals of Maine. 223 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 3: So she called me as I was pulling into my 224 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 3: parking spot and she's like, Wendy, I think we might 225 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 3: have a problem. We have some seals that are are 226 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 3: coming in. They're showing really strong respiratory signs like I'm 227 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 3: really nervous that high path has arrived here in the seals. 228 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: High path means high pathogenicity, which means bad flu strains 229 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 1: like H five N one. 230 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 3: Honestly, this kind of felt like our mission impossible moment, 231 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 3: so I instructed her to overnight samples to me. So 232 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 3: she has all of the supplies in house there of 233 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 3: the different vials that we need, and it's really it's 234 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 3: the same exact stuff that we all have used doing 235 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 3: COVID screening, so it's you know, they get swabbed, it 236 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 3: goes into a viral transport media into a little tube, but. 237 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:44,240 Speaker 1: From a seal, so they're sticking like a Q tip 238 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: up the seals nose. 239 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 3: Yes, so we stick Q tips up the seals nose. 240 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 3: So we do nasal samples and rectal samples, which thankfully 241 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 3: we haven't done with humans. And those all came to 242 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 3: me overnight and we immediately ran those samples as soon 243 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 3: as they arrived here in the lab, and we detected 244 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 3: a really strong signal for the H five N one 245 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 3: for the high path influenza. 246 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 1: Whendy ran the tests again just to make sure, and 247 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 1: she got the same result. H five N one had 248 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: made its way to seals along the coast of Maine. 249 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 1: She sounded the alarm, notified the FEDS, and fortunately this 250 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 1: outbreak passed pretty quickly, but Wendy and other scientists are 251 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 1: still worried about future outbreaks. Let's just talk about why 252 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 1: this moment is a big deal, Like, why is this 253 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 1: such an important moment? 254 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 3: So one of the major reasons is that there's a 255 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 3: lot of different forms of influenza that circulate in wildlife, 256 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 3: but when it makes that shift into mammals, because it's 257 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 3: usually circulating in birds, and when it shifts over into mammals, 258 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:50,120 Speaker 3: obviously we're a mammal. So that means it is one 259 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 3: step closer to being of concern for human health and 260 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 3: pandemic potential. 261 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 1: It's basically it's just getting closer to us in a 262 00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 1: biological sense exactly. 263 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, they're all been referred to as a as a sentinel. 264 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 3: They're able to give us a heads up of what 265 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 3: sort of things might be moving from birds into a mammal, 266 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 3: But not to say that the seals themselves aren't. For 267 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 3: it's not just about the human health. So it's also 268 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 3: that you know, there is concern that it was going 269 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 3: to have a very large impact on wildlife as well, 270 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 3: because this is a whole new virus that is going 271 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 3: into a species that hasn't seen this virus before, so 272 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 3: potentially they don't have the immune protection in place to 273 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 3: be able to handle that. So it's human health, it's 274 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:30,239 Speaker 3: the animal health, it's all of it. 275 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 1: How do marine mammals get a hive in one this 276 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 1: high path flu That. 277 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 3: Is an excellent question and that is one of the 278 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 3: things that we are actively still trying to find out. 279 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 3: So there are a couple of different ways. It seems 280 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,159 Speaker 3: pretty clear it's coming from wild birds. So the bird 281 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:47,440 Speaker 3: is where the virus is circulating and it spills over 282 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 3: and makes its way into seals. So the question is 283 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 3: how exactly it could be the case that the seal 284 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 3: is actually consuming an infected. 285 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 1: Bird, eating it, yeah, eating it, Yeah. 286 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 3: And that's what we've seen a lot of terrestrial mammals 287 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 3: that that seems to be. 288 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: How I mean, do seals eat birds well. 289 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:11,400 Speaker 3: In some cases, yes, but it is not It certainly 290 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:15,120 Speaker 3: is not a common thing on their their venu and 291 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 3: given the number of seals that we saw with high 292 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 3: path influenza, it seems very unlikely that each of them 293 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:25,440 Speaker 3: were having the unusual meal of a bird, so it 294 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:29,680 Speaker 3: is it's the highest probability in my mind, is that 295 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 3: the virus is being shed into the environment and that 296 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:37,240 Speaker 3: the seals are coming into contact with it, whether it 297 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 3: is bird poop on the beach and they're you know, 298 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 3: ingesting it or inhaling it that way, or we see 299 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,639 Speaker 3: little bodies of water where birds are pooping in the 300 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 3: water there and the seals are then hanging out in 301 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,880 Speaker 3: that water too, So that's certainly possibility. 302 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 1: I mean, it's worth noting that with birds, flu, unlike 303 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 1: in humans, is is a fegal oral. It's a like 304 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 1: a gas through intestinal right right exactly. 305 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 3: That's an important point. So in birds it's a it's 306 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 3: a gi so it's they're they're shedding it in their 307 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 3: feces and. 308 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: That's how birds spread it to each other like humans 309 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: get some diseases that way, like from drinking dirty water, 310 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,399 Speaker 1: and that's the way flu works for birds, but not 311 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:17,640 Speaker 1: for people exactly. 312 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's possible that that's how it's getting into 313 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 3: seals as well. Okay, it's also possible that the seals 314 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 3: are spreading amongst themselves once it gets into that population, 315 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:31,639 Speaker 3: and that's something that is still being very actively looked at. 316 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 3: It's not clear yet, it's not really ruled in or 317 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 3: ruled out. 318 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,640 Speaker 1: I mean, you mentioned that just kind of like as 319 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 1: one of several options. But that's a huge, huge, high 320 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: stakes question for people, right, Like the virus going from 321 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,439 Speaker 1: birds to seals is way different than the virus going 322 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: from mammal to mammal. Right, that is a huge, huge, 323 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 1: profoundly important public health question. It absolutely is. I'm shocked, 324 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 1: frankly that we don't know the answer. Scared, Yeah, I know. 325 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,440 Speaker 3: But the thing is is it's not an easy answer 326 00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 3: to get because you need a pretty sizable data set 327 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:11,160 Speaker 3: to really be able to say anything with confidence. And 328 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 3: the number of sequences that we were able to get 329 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 3: from viruses off of seals is a small enough number 330 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 3: that the data is still not clear. It's not really 331 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 3: convincing one way or the other. 332 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:29,360 Speaker 1: So, Okay, that's the sort of abstract, high level story. 333 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 1: I also want to talk about your field work. As 334 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,720 Speaker 1: I understand you go out and basically hang out with seals. 335 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 1: Tell me about that. 336 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,400 Speaker 3: So we have several different sites around the Gulf of Maine. 337 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,360 Speaker 3: The primary one that I personally go to is Montomoy, 338 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 3: and that is off of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. 339 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 1: What part of the year do you go to Montomoy? 340 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,160 Speaker 3: The time when everybody wants to go to the islands 341 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:52,879 Speaker 3: off of Cape Cod in the middle of the winter 342 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 3: January and February. Montamoi is one of my favorite places 343 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 3: on the planet. Though it's off of Cape Cod, it's 344 00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:05,439 Speaker 3: very remote there is there's there are no developments there, 345 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 3: there's no heat, electricity, running water. The boats go and 346 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 3: drop us off and we have whatever food and water 347 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,359 Speaker 3: and safety gear we brought with us. And there is 348 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 3: an old lighthouse there. It's actually two hundred year old 349 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 3: lighthouse just had its anniversary. It hasn't been operational for 350 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 3: the last hundred years. So the Park Service is very 351 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 3: gracious in letting us use that as basically a base camp. 352 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,880 Speaker 1: And it's you and a few researchers and how many seals. 353 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 3: Oh, lots of seals. So in the region, it's estimated 354 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 3: that there's probably about fifty thousand, but on Monomoy we're 355 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,400 Speaker 3: talking a couple of thousand at that period of time. 356 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 1: That's a lot of seals, A lot of seals. I mean, 357 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:46,919 Speaker 1: what's it smell like? 358 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 3: So the very first time that I went out to Monomoy, 359 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:53,360 Speaker 3: we're all geared up and we land on the beach 360 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,439 Speaker 3: and we start to walk over to the seals, and 361 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 3: there's this pungent smell of skunk, and I was like, oh, 362 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 3: somebody must have been spray I by skunk on there 363 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:02,879 Speaker 3: like their field clothes, and we're just none of us 364 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 3: are talking about it, so I'm just gonna We're just 365 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:06,919 Speaker 3: going to carry on. And then eventually I came to 366 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 3: realize that no, no, that muskie smell, that is the 367 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,919 Speaker 3: smell of the seals. So it smells very similar to 368 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:13,360 Speaker 3: skunk in my opinion. 369 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 1: What do they sound like? Is it loud like you 370 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 1: hear like a thousand seals going off. 371 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:25,440 Speaker 3: During the day, Typically not at all unless they're they're 372 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:31,800 Speaker 3: kind of bickering and fighting and having some territorial little battles. 373 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 3: At night time, it's sort of a consistent, low bellowing 374 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 3: that you hear in the background while you're while you're 375 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 3: trying to sleep. It's actually quite nice ambient noise. 376 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:46,159 Speaker 1: It does sound a feeling that sounds better than the 377 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:51,439 Speaker 1: smell certainly right. So so you're out there, what do 378 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 1: you do? 379 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,680 Speaker 3: We are going out and actually capturing the pups, and 380 00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 3: we focus on the pups because they are, give take, 381 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 3: about one hundred pounds as opposed to the adults, which 382 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 3: can be around eight hundred pounds. So we're able to 383 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,920 Speaker 3: physically restrain the pups. And that's why we're there during 384 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 3: January and February because that's the pupping season. It can 385 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 3: be somewhat comical if you didn't know what was going on. 386 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 3: You've got a bunch of scientists all geared up, and 387 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 3: we are crawling through army crawl style through the dunes 388 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 3: to sneak up on a seal pup and put this 389 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 3: bag over the seal that we then capture it, and 390 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:33,439 Speaker 3: we're doing sample collections. We're doing measurements to look for 391 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 3: just the overall health of the animals, and then we 392 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 3: put a tag on them. In some cases we put 393 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,280 Speaker 3: on a satellite tag so we can actually follow their 394 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 3: movement and then we release them and all of that 395 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,680 Speaker 3: can happen and as quickly as six minutes, and then 396 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,159 Speaker 3: we max it out at twenty minutes. So if we 397 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,119 Speaker 3: hit twenty minutes, we release the seal. 398 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:56,679 Speaker 1: So when you go out in the winter and you 399 00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:03,359 Speaker 1: are swabbing baby seals, like you are doing the sentinel work, 400 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,880 Speaker 1: you're like out there looking for H five in one 401 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,680 Speaker 1: to be the early warning system for the rest of us. Exactly. 402 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 3: We are trying to pick up anything that might be 403 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 3: developing the ability to go from birds to mammals and 404 00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 3: then trying to figure out is that something that then 405 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,520 Speaker 3: presents the possibility that it could then come into humans 406 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 3: or other wild mammals, but mammals in general. 407 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:31,880 Speaker 1: So if I hope not, When let's say, if someone 408 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 1: finds a clear instance of H five in one spreading 409 00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,520 Speaker 1: from mammal to mammal, what will that mean? 410 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,640 Speaker 3: That is the point where we collectively need to get 411 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:50,399 Speaker 3: much more serious about preparing for it. The good news 412 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,280 Speaker 3: with high path influenza is I like to say, it's 413 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 3: not COVID, so it's we see it coming. We know influenza, 414 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 3: we have vaccines against influenza. We have seed stocks that 415 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 3: are maintained to be able to rapidly grow up vaccines, 416 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,960 Speaker 3: so we have the capacity to respond. It's important that 417 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,640 Speaker 3: we continue to do very robust surveillance so that we 418 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,160 Speaker 3: know if or when these changes happen, and what exactly 419 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 3: they look like. 420 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 1: I will say, after talking to you about what's happening 421 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 1: with H five N one and mammals, I'm certainly not 422 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 1: not worried, but I am less worried than I was 423 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 1: before I talk to you. 424 00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:35,200 Speaker 3: Excellent. I like to think that we will be prepared 425 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,200 Speaker 3: for the human health side of things, that we will 426 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 3: be prepared to respond pretty efficiently and pretty rapidly should 427 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 3: it become a concern for human health. My bigger concern 428 00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:50,400 Speaker 3: is for wildlife. That's a much trickier one for us 429 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:54,119 Speaker 3: to be able to mitigate, and it could have a 430 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:58,840 Speaker 3: very long lasting, very negative impact to several wildlife species. 431 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 3: But I think from human health we will be able 432 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:03,920 Speaker 3: to hopefully respond well. 433 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 1: I appreciate all your time. 434 00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:06,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely. 435 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,439 Speaker 1: One last thing. About a month after we spoke with Wendy, 436 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: H five N one was detected in seals off the 437 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 1: coast of Washington State. It was the first time AGE 438 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,400 Speaker 1: five and one had been detected in marine mammals off 439 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 1: the west coast of the United States. Thanks to my 440 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,880 Speaker 1: guest today, David Quarman and Wendy per Year. Next week 441 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:34,600 Speaker 1: we'll be talking about HPV human peppellomavirus and about how 442 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:39,879 Speaker 1: the HPV vaccine explains American's complicated relationship to all vaccines. 443 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 3: The HPV story is so interesting because support was coming 444 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,520 Speaker 3: from everywhere, but backlash was coming from everywhere too, Like 445 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:51,320 Speaker 3: all over the Political Spectrum. 446 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,679 Speaker 1: Incubation is a co production of Pushkin Industries and Ruby 447 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 1: Studio at iHeartMedia. It's produced by Gabriel Hunter Chang, Ariela Markowitz, 448 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:03,119 Speaker 1: and am Gaines McQuaid. Our editors are Julia Barton and 449 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,719 Speaker 1: Karen Schakerjie Mastering by Anne Pope, fact checking by Joseph Friedman. 450 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 1: Our executive producers are Katherine Girardeau and Matt Romano. I'm 451 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:13,919 Speaker 1: Jacob Goldstein. Thanks for listening.