WEBVTT - Droning On 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:07.200 Brought to you by Toyota. Let's go places. Welcome to 0:00:07.400 --> 0:00:15.360 Forward Thinking. Hey there everyone, and welcome to Forward Thinking, 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:17.880 the podcast that looks at the future and says I 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:21.520 am the modern man. I'm Jonathan Strickland, I'm Lauren Vocodon, 0:00:21.840 --> 0:00:28.200 and uh I'm Joe McCormick. Well, I just found on 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:31.440 Amazon I can buy four and fifty two grams of 0:00:31.520 --> 0:00:38.400 liquid mercury from some seller called Gallium Source LLC. It's 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:43.319 pure and uh, it's nine dollars. So that's a really 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:46.839 good deal. Pretty good deal on liquid mercury. Yeah, I 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:50.920 need to get this a SAP like. I don't want 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:53.400 to wait for shipping, and I don't want to pay 0:00:53.440 --> 0:00:56.960 the shipping costs. I want it here in about thirty minutes. 0:00:58.000 --> 0:01:02.360 I hesitate to ask why you want the mercury. In fact, 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:05.880 I'm not even going to think deniability. I'm not going 0:01:05.920 --> 0:01:10.600 to ask it's it's liquid mercury was useful for all 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:15.240 kinds of things, all kinds of poisonous, poisonous things. Okay, well, 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:18.200 then I'm glad that I'm leaving the office within half 0:01:18.200 --> 0:01:20.080 an hour. But I will tell you how you can 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:22.960 get this done, all right, How you can get from 0:01:23.000 --> 0:01:28.600 Amazon in half an hour. Do they have like, um, now, 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:30.920 can you you pay extra to have somebody bring it 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:35.240 to you on a sport motorcycle zooming weaving through traffic? 0:01:35.800 --> 0:01:38.760 Not not quite not quite that, not here in Atlanta. No, 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:41.920 do they put it in a catapult and get it 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:45.800 to your in the within thirty five you're considering that 0:01:45.880 --> 0:01:49.160 we're right across the street from the Terminus complex, you 0:01:49.200 --> 0:01:53.040 probably wouldn't even get to clear that building. That's a problem, though, 0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:56.120 I don't know which direction actually the nearest Amazon fulfillment 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:59.920 center is. I assume they have the mercury there already. Well. 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:07.040 Catapulting not recommended for liquid mercury. Yeah, sure couldn't. I 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:11.280 couldn't lose a single gram of it I need if 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:13.720 you're if you're really, if you really needed in half 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:16.120 an hour. I'm sorry to say that right now, we 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:18.639 don't have a solution for you. But Amazon is working 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:21.760 on it. Last Yeah, they've got this thing that they've proposed. 0:02:21.919 --> 0:02:24.640 Wait wait, wait, whoa, whoa, they're working on they're working 0:02:24.760 --> 0:02:28.359 on it thirty minutes. Not just mercury, though, I don't 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:31.119 want to give you the the implication that they're only 0:02:31.200 --> 0:02:36.280 working on mostly I would say books and DVDs, things 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:39.000 that weigh less than five pounds, right, but four grams 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:42.280 mercury that's like a pound. So it's fine, whoa, whoa, 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:45.560 let's back up. What is going on here? Okay, thirty 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:47.560 minute delivery. Do you know, do you know what a 0:02:47.720 --> 0:02:54.120 drone is? Yeah, I'm not talking about Yeah, that's also true. 0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:57.760 It's also what you know bagpipers do often when they're 0:02:57.800 --> 0:03:02.440 talking about their bagpipes and say military weapon that is 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:05.000 flies around and doesn't have any people in it. Yeah, 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:07.520 but it's not just a military weapon. That is an 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:09.639 example of a drone. Yes. So it turns out that 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:13.840 what we're talking about here are specific subset of unmanned 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:18.880 aerial vehicles. They're usually either semi autonomous that well, they 0:03:18.919 --> 0:03:21.840 can be completely piloted by humans. They can be semi autonomous, 0:03:21.919 --> 0:03:23.639 or they could be fully autonomous. It all depends on 0:03:23.680 --> 0:03:27.400 the model, but we're generally talking about these smaller devices 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:31.760 that are unmanned aerial vehicles that can do various things. 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:34.840 And what Amazon is proposing is building a fleet of 0:03:35.000 --> 0:03:39.200 these unmanned aerial vehicles that can carry payloads of five 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:43.320 pounds or lighter and deliver them to locations within ten 0:03:43.440 --> 0:03:47.000 miles of a fulfillment center within half an hour of 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:52.760 you ordering that item, which sounds pretty phenomenal. Right, Well, 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:56.200 before we get into Amazon's approach, let's talk about the 0:03:56.320 --> 0:03:58.880 idea of using drones for delivery in the first place. 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.960 It's not Amazon is not the first company to propose 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:05.240 doing this. Oh, certainly not. It is currently happening. Well, 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:07.560 is it currently happening or is it kind of shot 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:11.160 kind of shot happening. You know, China has been looking. 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:15.640 There are two countries actually where it's happening on a 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:20.599 small basis, and small being that neither place is using 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:24.160 them on a rollout as wide as Amazon would, And 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:27.640 China is one of those nations. Australia is another. And 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:30.120 you can see some publicity stunts in other places around 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:33.080 the world. Yeah, and in China they don't have that 0:04:33.160 --> 0:04:35.680 many regulations about this kind of thing. A business can 0:04:35.800 --> 0:04:38.960 just talk to its local government about whether or not 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:42.839 it's chill to fly you know, cake or or whatever 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:46.320 they want from out to the you know, cities around them. 0:04:46.480 --> 0:04:48.240 Australia is the same way. I mean here in the 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:52.520 United States, we've got the f A A and they have. Um, well, 0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:54.680 we'll get into some complications with the f a A 0:04:54.800 --> 0:04:58.160 in a bit, but another In short, you can't just 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:04.040 launch literally or figuratively a drone delivery business in the 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:08.920 US without some approval process. I knew the government would 0:05:08.920 --> 0:05:11.760 be gumming up the works. I'm getting my mercury as 0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:16.719 fast as possible. Yeah. Yeah, as though there have been 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:19.040 a couple of publicity stunts with like, um, there was 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:21.920 a there was a dry cleaner in Philadelphia. Yeah, actually 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:25.120 that that dry cleaner. It's kind of funny. They were 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:27.800 showing off this very tiny drone. I don't know if 0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:30.760 you actually saw the video, but the drone is like 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:33.080 super small. It's really just it wasn't even really a 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:35.600 drone in the sense of anything that was semi autonomous 0:05:35.720 --> 0:05:39.160 or it was remote control. It required two people to operate, 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:42.040 and it required a spotter and a pilot. So when 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:44.000 you get into the point that not only did it 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:46.400 require a spotter and a pilot, but it also could 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:49.400 only carry one pound worth of stuff, which is essentially 0:05:49.520 --> 0:05:53.719 a shirt, then you couldn't really use it to deliver 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:57.280 dry cleaning on a meaningful basis in the in the 0:05:57.560 --> 0:06:00.840 the service area of that dry cleaners. On the plus side, 0:06:00.920 --> 0:06:03.560 anything that's wet when it's leaves is dry by the 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:07.480 time it arrives. Well, it's dry cleaning. Why would it 0:06:07.560 --> 0:06:10.760 be wet, So it's got the word dry in the 0:06:10.920 --> 0:06:14.640 name of the service. Perhaps more importantly, Um, there is 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:19.520 a tacocopter in San Francisco. Well, there's a potential, there's 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:22.800 a potential burrito bomber. I really want these to exist. 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:26.480 I mean, I really seriously want these to exist. But 0:06:26.680 --> 0:06:29.640 right now they're they're they're having some issues. But before 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:32.360 we get into all that, the the cleaners, it's interesting, 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:35.840 it's a man, a young cleaner which was in Philadelphia. Um, 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:38.679 like I said, it was a tiny little quad rotor 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:41.920 drone that not even a drone, but a little it's 0:06:41.920 --> 0:06:45.360 almost like a remote controlled helicopter at that stage where 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:48.360 it required two people to operate. So obviously, from an 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:52.480 economical standpoint, from a practicality standpoint, there is no reason 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:55.960 to do this because the amount of manpower required to 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.800 deliver one shirt is more than what it would take 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:01.000 if you just hired a driver to do it. So 0:07:01.480 --> 0:07:04.839 or hired a walker. Really yeah, even a walker. Yeah, yeah, 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:06.920 So it's it's one of those things that clearly this 0:07:07.200 --> 0:07:09.880 was something that could get a lot of buzz in 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:12.560 more ways than one, because the drone was loud, but 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:16.360 it would get a lot of attention and therefore drum 0:07:16.480 --> 0:07:20.760 up some some customer service type stuff for this particular 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:23.040 dry cleaner right there. They want to get some business 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:26.080 out of this. So it was more of a marketing stunt, 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:28.880 I would say, than any kind of meaningful delivery service. 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:31.920 I would argue, the same thing is true for something else. 0:07:32.000 --> 0:07:34.040 This this, by the way, that story broke in June 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:37.880 of I believe another story that broke that same month 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:45.080 June was that the Domino's Company in the United Kingdom 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:48.800 used a drone to deliver pizzas in a essentially a 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:57.080 concept video. So I think the weirdest, most unfortunately comic 0:07:57.320 --> 0:08:01.360 death ever would be killed by falling pizza. It would 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:04.120 that would have to be a well, I'm not gonna 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:05.640 say that would have to be a lot of pizza, 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:11.960 because I guess if it were lots of toppings. Yeah, 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:16.520 maybe you have a very virulent gluten allergy, and I'm 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:19.440 not sharing. You can't absorb gluten through the skin. However, 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:21.240 you would have to have your mouth open while you 0:08:21.280 --> 0:08:23.960 were staring at the sky and have swallowed all that pizza, 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:26.640 which you must admit would be really unfortunately, would be 0:08:26.640 --> 0:08:28.200 a terrible way to die. I do admit if you 0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:30.640 were smothered by pizza, that would not be pleasant. But 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:33.319 that's we're getting a little far from the point here. 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:34.720 That what I was going to say is that, again, 0:08:34.800 --> 0:08:36.960 this was more or less a marketing stunt. It didn't 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:40.000 there was no specific plan to put this in place, 0:08:40.160 --> 0:08:42.400 the same sort of thing that in order to do 0:08:42.559 --> 0:08:45.719 this they would have to to obey a lot of 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:48.560 different rules that are still kind of being formed as 0:08:48.600 --> 0:08:52.440 we speak. But as far as marketing stunts go, nice work. 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:56.719 I mean it attention and immediately people were asking the 0:08:56.840 --> 0:09:00.480 United States divisions of Domino's Pizza, like you plan on 0:09:00.600 --> 0:09:04.480 doing that here? And they said no, that was their inset, 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:09.079 very it was very upfront. Yeah. Well, the thing about 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:13.599 that is it's it's silly now, but you know, in 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:17.240 a few years I could see that happening. Well, the 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:20.160 the issue I have right now is that both of 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:22.839 the ones we just talked about, the cleaners and the 0:09:22.920 --> 0:09:25.520 one with the pizza, required there to be a human 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:29.360 pilot and essentially maintain line of sight with drones. Yeah, 0:09:29.400 --> 0:09:30.920 at that point, if you have to have line of 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:32.880 sight with the drone to be able to control it 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:36.719 and you're piloting it, it's essentially an RC helicopter or 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:40.679 or airplane something along those. It's not truly a drone. Now, 0:09:41.200 --> 0:09:44.760 what Amazon is proposing is something that is much different. 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:48.680 It would not be uh, some a remote controlled vehicle 0:09:49.000 --> 0:09:52.199 that uh that a person, a pilot and a spotter 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:55.679 would have to follow. Right. It would use cameras and GPS. Yeah, 0:09:55.800 --> 0:09:57.840 it would. And you you might have a single person, 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:02.280 a supervisor, overseeing maybe thirty or forty of these things altogether. 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:05.160 And so you would have multiple supervisors at each fulfillment center. 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:07.800 Because I don't know if you know this, but Amazon 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:12.360 fills a lot of orders. So and according to Jeff Bezos, 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:16.640 who's the CEO of Amazon, around eight of those orders 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:20.040 are five pounds or lighter. So that means most of 0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:22.959 the stuff people get on Amazon could in theory, be 0:10:23.120 --> 0:10:25.199 delivered by these drones that are supposed to have a 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:28.720 payload capacity of about five pounds. Now that doesn't mean 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:31.440 that everything that's five pounds are less could be delivered 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:33.559 because some of it's gonna be bulky. For instance, not 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:36.720 that long ago, I bought paper towels on Amazon because 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:39.120 I was running low and Amanta. I didn't have to 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:41.360 go out in Atlanta and buy them, and the less 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:44.559 interaction I have with other human beings the better. So 0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:47.160 anyway I ordered, I ordered them on Amazon to have 0:10:47.240 --> 0:10:50.600 them delivered well. The package weighed less than five pounds, 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:53.160 but it also was much more bulky than what a 0:10:53.320 --> 0:10:56.319 book or DVD would be. I would imagine that your 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:59.439 average drone would have difficulty flying around with that. For 0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:01.839 one thing, the air resistance would be much higher. So 0:11:02.040 --> 0:11:05.200 if there were any kind of wind resistance at all, 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:07.200 like if if the winds were blowing at any kind 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:11.360 of uh, you know, gusty level, I bet that that 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:13.360 drone will have a real hard time getting those paper 0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:15.600 towels to me in half an hour. Hopefully I will 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:17.800 never have an experience where I'm like, I need sixteen 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:20.400 rolls of paper towels within thirty minutes or I Am 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:22.960 going to freak out. That would be a bad day. 0:11:23.480 --> 0:11:25.520 I've had those days in the past, though, but luckily 0:11:25.520 --> 0:11:28.280 I've had the paper towels on hand. No i'd imagine 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:31.600 that there will be in addition to weight limitations, there 0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:35.120 be dimension I'm sure there will be, and also, I 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:38.640 mean there's also the limitation of distance. They are supposed 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:44.000 to have a ten mile radius of delivery distance from 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:47.280 a fulfillment center, of which there are currently nineties six. 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:49.880 So if you don't live within ten miles of one 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:52.600 of those ninety six fulfillment centers, you won't be getting 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:55.120 any deliveries from drones in the first place, because you'll 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:58.199 you'll live too far. Uh. Let's talk for a second, though, 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:00.959 why would we even go with using drones in the 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:03.240 first place. I mean, Convenience obviously is one. If you 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:06.720 wanted to get a specific thing within half an hour 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:09.439 and you're like, I cannot possibly wait until tomorrow for 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:12.720 overnight shipping, or or maybe you're like, you know, none 0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:15.240 of the stores that are near me actually carry this 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:18.160 in their stock, but it's on Amazon. If they have 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:19.880 it at the fulfillment center, that I can get in 0:12:19.960 --> 0:12:22.959 half an hour, Obviously, that's convenient. But what about other reasons? Well, 0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:26.160 you know, I don't have an answer on price, but 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.720 I do have a question, you know, and it would 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:32.040 this in the long run be cheaper. It seems like 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:36.200 initially would be more expensive because you'd be adding new technology, 0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:39.439 coming infrastructure. I'm imagining that the price point on that 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:43.240 would be actually a lot more overnight shipping, right at 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:45.679 least at least initially. At least initially. Now in the 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:48.520 long term, I can see how it might actually be cheaper. 0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:53.160 Requires less human labor, less fuel. You know, you just 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:57.120 charged like an electric motor. However, these are powered I 0:12:57.160 --> 0:13:00.640 assume electric, yes, well no only that, but or I 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:03.400 assume electric too, I should say, because the details are 0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:06.959 pretty I would think that a tiny diesel engine on 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:09.360 that kind of thing would really not be what you're 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:13.000 looking like. Yeah, I imagine so the I mean, some 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:18.120 some r C type aircraft do run on fuel and 0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:20.800 not just electricity. So that's why I'm like, well, you know, 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:24.000 I'm probably electric motors, but we I don't know for sure. 0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:27.560 I would I would guess electric, mostly because they've talked 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:29.600 about the problems with battery life. But we'll get into 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:32.480 that too in a minute. But another another thing that 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:34.200 I was going to say is that when you're talking 0:13:34.240 --> 0:13:38.760 about shipping, Amazon isn't the one who ships everything from 0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.319 door to door. It's not an Amazon driver who drives 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:44.880 up and delivers your Amazon product. They're they're contracting with 0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:48.360 other companies in order to get stuff sent, or they're 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:52.360 you know, paying a per package fee to have stuff sent, 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:54.880 especially if you are like an Amazon Prime member and 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:58.240 you have shipping covered like two day shipping covered in 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:02.120 your in your agreement. So I'd imagine if someone like 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:06.719 Amazon is uniquely positioned to negotiate shipping prices with the 0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:09.679 major carriers. I'm sure, I'm sure the but you know, 0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:13.839 you think about the costs of maintaining a shipping fleet 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:16.559 or just even maintaining the infrastructure to get stuff to 0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:20.720 the trucks, and you know you have to pay people 0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:22.520 to do all that kind of stuff. If you're able 0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:26.160 to streamline that, then that would cut down potentially on costs. Okay, Well, 0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:29.360 if these drones were able to be, say, electrically powered, 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:32.600 I would think that might have some kind of carbon emissions. 0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:35.920 I packed right. Yeah. And the announcement that Jeff Bezos made, 0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:39.200 he was talking about it being um a lot greener 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:43.040 than current shipping options are, and and shipping options, if 0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:46.560 I may be depressing statistics girl, um kind of scary 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:49.560 right now? Okay, so so according to carbon fund dot org, 0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:51.680 which takes a whole bunch of data from a whole 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:53.680 bunch of different places, it's it's a it's a pretty 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:59.520 pretty legit estimate. I think they look at air cargo, truck, cargo, train, cargo, 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:05.000 and freight and UM. According to them, uh C freight 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:06.880 which is which is at the low end of the scale, 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:10.680 creates some like like zero point zero four eight krams 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:14.680 of carbon dioxide emissions per ton of cargo shipped a mile. Okay, 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:19.320 UM train freight about half that amount, but truck creates 0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:22.520 about six times more an air cargo thirty two times 0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:25.360 as much as C freight UM some one point five 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:29.160 kilos per ton mile, which which means that if you're 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:32.640 shipping something from let's say Atlanta to Los Angeles, UM 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:35.560 that's about two thousand miles, you can create as much 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:38.520 as three metric tons of emissions for a single ton 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:41.440 of cargo during that trip UM, which you know, for 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:45.480 for reference, the world average as of UH per person 0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:50.240 per year was about five metric tons UM. So that's 0:15:50.280 --> 0:15:52.800 a lot. So yeah, if you could come up with 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:55.880 a way of at least taking that last mile out 0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:57.760 of it, which you know, it sounds like it's a 0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:01.440 small amount, but that every little bit can make a difference. 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:04.040 Now again, since we're talking about electric motors, we have 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:06.120 to say this every time. It all depends on where 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:08.400 you get your electricity. Right, it's not free, We're not 0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:11.440 getting it from the air. It's not like generally electricity 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:13.360 is going to be less of a problem than say, 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:16.280 burning gasoline. Right, as long as assuming you're not getting 0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:18.840 your all your electricity from some coal plant that had 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:21.640 to step up production by d and fifty or so 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:24.840 because of your army of drones. I mean, obviously, once 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:27.800 we finally build those Tesla towers, we'll all have free energy. 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:33.560 Because he was infallible, there might have been some snark there. 0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:37.120 But assuming that you're getting your electricity from a place 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:40.360 that is as doing, it's best to have at least 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.080 some green practices in place. I would imagine that the 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:48.040 carbon footprint issue would mean that, yeah, using drones makes sense. 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:53.320 You're going to produce less are fewer uh greenhouse gas emissions, 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:56.560 and it will be a smaller carbon footprint. Now, there 0:16:56.640 --> 0:17:00.880 are some other challenges besides the idea of well does 0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:04.639 this make financial sense? For example, right now, from what 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:07.800 I understand, there aren't really batteries out there that have 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:11.320 the kind of life that would be required for a 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:14.840 drone to be able to carry a five pound payload 0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:18.960 in addition to the weight of the drone itself ten miles, 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:21.760 drop it off and fly back ten miles. Most of 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.640 the drones that are in the general class that Bezos 0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:28.480 is talking about, he's talking about octo rotor drone, which 0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:30.680 means it has eight rotors. You know, a lot of 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:32.680 the ones we see, I have our quad rotors, but 0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:35.240 this one have twice as many, so it's twice as good. 0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:39.280 Most of the ones I've read about. The distance that 0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:42.120 most of these can travels about a mile before they 0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:44.760 start to have their battery drain pretty heavily, and they 0:17:44.800 --> 0:17:47.879 can fly for about fifteen minutes. Now they say that 0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:50.160 they would get your your delivery to you within half 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:52.760 an hour, keep in mind that that's everything from processing 0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:55.920 the delivery, pulling it from the warehouse, putting it on 0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:58.000 a conveyor belt where it would travel down the conveyor 0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:00.720 belt to the drone that's going to deliver it to you. Yeah, 0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:02.560 I want to put in for the record that I 0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:04.959 cannot get wings from the place two miles away from 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:06.960 my house in less than half an hour, so they 0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:11.200 can't fly. So they've already removed the wings, so there's 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:14.920 no flying anymore. Now in this case, the drone would 0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:19.320 be flying over to I do, I do. Hey, I 0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:22.600 just spent an entire week with my family. And if 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.240 you think I'm bad, you should listen to my dad talk. 0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:29.639 So I've I'm full up on terrible puns and jokes, 0:18:30.119 --> 0:18:34.520 but anyway, and I love my dad and anyway, they 0:18:34.760 --> 0:18:38.920 they It seems really optimistic right now to say that 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:41.800 a drone would be capable of doing what Bezos is 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:44.280 saying they will do, to be able to carry a 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:47.840 five pound payload at a maximum of ten miles and 0:18:48.000 --> 0:18:51.320 return on one single charge of battery. Now it may 0:18:51.400 --> 0:18:53.760 be that they will have multiple batteries and will actually 0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:57.200 do live battery switching in a single flight, which would help. 0:18:57.800 --> 0:19:00.960 But you've got to think, how would you be able 0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:04.919 to build these drones so that they could make these trips, 0:19:05.320 --> 0:19:08.680 return and then recharge fast enough so that they would 0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:12.359 be ready for another trip before much longer. Because if 0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:14.960 you've got an army of I don't know, two hundred drones, 0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:18.879 let's say, for one particular fulfillment center, and it's a 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:22.400 really heavy day because in cyber on Cyber Monday, Amazon 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:26.399 was getting three hundred order requests per minute. Now that 0:19:26.600 --> 0:19:30.200 was the company, you know, nationwide, but even so, that 0:19:30.280 --> 0:19:33.560 means those fulfillment centers are really, really busy. So assuming 0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:35.920 that this was in place in four or five years, 0:19:36.000 --> 0:19:40.080 when Amazon says that this is a possibility, how would 0:19:40.119 --> 0:19:42.439 they be able to not only make sure that these 0:19:42.520 --> 0:19:44.840 drones could get to where they were going, but recharge 0:19:44.920 --> 0:19:48.359 fast enough to meet the demand that continuously comes in. 0:19:48.920 --> 0:19:50.720 And I don't I don't have a question and answer 0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:53.360 for that question. I mean, you can have rapid recharge 0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:57.480 batteries and they do recharge pretty quickly, but you know, 0:19:57.640 --> 0:20:00.560 that's a pretty heavty demand on power to be able 0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:04.040 to carry five pounds through the air, preferably at an 0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:06.720 altitude where people aren't going to be messing with it. 0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:10.000 Because that's another concern, is that what happens when you 0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:13.000 get people looking in the air and seeing a uh, 0:20:14.480 --> 0:20:17.199 essentially yeah, or they're just thinking, I bet that thing 0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:20.280 is carrying something nice. I would like something nice. I'm 0:20:20.320 --> 0:20:22.080 going to knock that thing out of the air. And 0:20:22.200 --> 0:20:24.640 get something nice. So instead of fell off the back 0:20:24.720 --> 0:20:26.400 of a truck, it's going to be this fell off 0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:29.439 a drone. I never paint them to look like question 0:20:29.480 --> 0:20:31.800 blocks and Mario, it's it's a bad it's a bad thing. 0:20:32.200 --> 0:20:33.800 This is one of some things that have been talked 0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:35.960 about as a genuine concern as people are interfering or 0:20:36.040 --> 0:20:38.440 people hacking the system so that they could have things 0:20:38.520 --> 0:20:40.560 delivered to their house and to where they're supposed to go, 0:20:40.680 --> 0:20:42.560 or even when someone gets a delivery and goes like, 0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:44.159 oh look I got a free drone with this, I'm 0:20:44.160 --> 0:20:46.720 going to play with it now. So there are a 0:20:46.760 --> 0:20:49.280 lot of there are a lot of concerns here and 0:20:49.520 --> 0:20:55.000 and so part of this there's a Pixar movie just 0:20:55.119 --> 0:20:59.000 begging to be made. So but these are legitmic concerns, 0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:01.960 and so one of the answers are potential answers, maybe 0:21:02.080 --> 0:21:04.480 that they will fly at altitudes where it won't be 0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:07.679 obvious that there's a drone flying by, but that means 0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:10.480 they're flying pretty high, which requires even more energy to 0:21:10.560 --> 0:21:13.080 get to that altitude and maintain it, especially if it 0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:16.520 happens to be a windy type of area and be 0:21:16.600 --> 0:21:18.520 able to get to where they're going and drop them off. 0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:22.240 Another challenge, how do they know what's on the ground 0:21:22.359 --> 0:21:24.639 so that when they deliver it, they're delivering it safely 0:21:24.680 --> 0:21:28.280 without damaging a person or their property, because most of 0:21:28.359 --> 0:21:31.440 these are going to have ways of seeing their surroundings 0:21:31.480 --> 0:21:34.560 in the air, but not necessarily what's on the ground. Um. 0:21:35.040 --> 0:21:37.480 I'd see that though, is more of a scaling and 0:21:37.600 --> 0:21:41.680 implementation problem because as we've seen with like Google's autonomous cars, 0:21:42.359 --> 0:21:44.920 it's doable. I mean you can use like l DAR 0:21:45.080 --> 0:21:48.399 or something like that to to pretty accurately map your 0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:51.760 surroundings in a way that you really understand what's nearby. 0:21:52.000 --> 0:21:55.240 And that kind of sensory technology is probably also another 0:21:55.359 --> 0:21:58.040 five to ten years off, yeah, because you there are 0:21:58.160 --> 0:22:00.680 systems that exist. The problem is getting them to the 0:22:00.760 --> 0:22:02.720 point where they will fit on a drone and not 0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:05.360