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Speaker 1: The volume.

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Speaker 2: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up

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Speaker 2: straight Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire or Thursday,

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Speaker 2: September twenty first. Got a great guest today to break

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Speaker 2: down Week three in the NFL. You know him if

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Speaker 2: you listened to the podcast last year. We had him

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Speaker 2: on Vegas Guy Fox Sports Radio Guy, Bernie Fratto. Listen.

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Speaker 2: I love talking gambling with Bernie and we got a

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Speaker 2: lot of gambling fans, degenerates and reasonable smart people who

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Speaker 2: are using in numbers based analytics to thrive on the

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Speaker 2: gambling front. Bernie mixes it all in. You're really gonna

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Speaker 2: like it. Before we get to Bernie, I'll give you

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Speaker 2: a quick best bet on Niners Giants tonight. There's really

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Speaker 2: no other big story percolating. There was the cam Acer's trade.

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Speaker 2: The Rams somehow got off cam Akers sent him to

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Speaker 2: the Vikings under the guys of hey, Kevin O'Connell, you

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Speaker 2: knew cam Would you like him? Would you you know Madison,

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Speaker 2: you know, had had that rough fumble against the Eagles.

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Speaker 2: You want cam Akers? And the Vikers were like, sure,

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Speaker 2: we'll swap late round draft picks. So it's basically just

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Speaker 2: get him off to get him out of town, ship

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Speaker 2: him out. So it's Kyrien Williams now the man for

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Speaker 2: the Rams. If you are a fantasy player, I don't

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Speaker 2: think this trade does much, except if you have Alexander

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Speaker 2: Madison in fantasy you're not thrilled. Although I think it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be a pass happy attack. Sunday when the Chargers

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Speaker 2: play the Vikings, I don't know why I like the

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Speaker 2: Chargers again in that game. Then again, I've liked the

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Speaker 2: Chargers every week. What's not to love? I mean, they

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Speaker 2: should have won the first game against I mean, Miami

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Speaker 2: converts two long ass third downs late in that game

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Speaker 2: and then go in and score, and then the Chargers

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Speaker 2: had plenty of time, they just couldn't protect Herbert. And

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Speaker 2: then the Chargers leading virtually the entire way against the Titans.

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Speaker 2: They're driving with plenty of time left, plenty of timeouts,

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Speaker 2: and they have to settle for a field goal, force

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Speaker 2: overtime and then blow it like they should be two

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Speaker 2: and oh, Like you could make the case Denver could

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Speaker 2: be two and oh Chargers should be two and oh.

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Speaker 2: I'm I'm not out on the Chargers. I don't think

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Speaker 2: you make a big bet on a coin toss game.

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Speaker 2: But I think, as I said earlier in the week

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Speaker 2: to over in Vikings, Chargers, feels like a lot it's

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Speaker 2: going up all week. I'm not gonna get into the

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Speaker 2: bear stuff because as soon as Field's got the gist

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Speaker 2: from teammates or pr whoever, that he kind of stepped

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Speaker 2: in it. When he threw the coach under the bus,

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Speaker 2: it was it sounded like, you know, after he explained it,

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Speaker 2: it sounded like maybe he just simply misspoke and there's

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Speaker 2: no need to freak out, you know that being said,

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Speaker 2: Forty nine Ers Giants tonight, and it looks like it's

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Speaker 2: going to be headed up a little bit on Thursday.

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Speaker 2: No Saquon Barkley, No Andrew Thomas, the left tackle for

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Speaker 2: the Giants. The Giants are also going to be down.

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Speaker 2: I believe they're right guard its You guys can toss

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Speaker 2: this office. Oh it doesn't really matter, and they're just

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Speaker 2: down a guard and Andrew Thomas. Okay, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 2: you're facing an elite team in the San Francisco forty

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Speaker 2: nine Ers, an elite front in the Niners. They're gonna

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Speaker 2: be trotting out a defensive line. Evan Neil, according to

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Speaker 2: Pro Football Focus, ranked seventieth of seventy one tackles. Their

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Speaker 2: one guard mckethan. I'm not that familiar with him. He

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Speaker 2: played in week two. He graded out pretty well. It

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Speaker 2: was against Arizona. They have no pass rush Smitch who

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Speaker 2: had the rookie Michael Schmidt's adam? I think Minnesota. He

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Speaker 2: had a terrible snap that was a killer on that drive.

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Speaker 2: He grades out as the twenty fourth of thirty three centers.

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Speaker 2: The left guard, whoever this guy is, Mark Glowinski played

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Speaker 2: a little bit in Week two, and then Izunu is

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Speaker 2: going to fill in at left tackle. He filled in

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Speaker 2: for Andrew Thomas last game against you.

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Speaker 3: I don't want to hear.

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Speaker 2: Oh, he did well against Arizona, Like to stop, what

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Speaker 2: does that mean? Doesn't mean Jack squat. So one of

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Speaker 2: the ways I look at the matchups is you go

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Speaker 2: to Pro Football Focus, assuming you have an account or

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Speaker 2: you know you're biting off your friend's account, and you

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Speaker 2: can they they actually have the game, and you can

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Speaker 2: look at lineups. So you can look at, oh, let's

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Speaker 2: see who Bosa is gonna line up against. Let's see

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Speaker 2: who the Giants will put up against. One of the

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Speaker 2: best pass rushers. Oh, it's gonna be Evan Neil, the

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Speaker 2: second to worst right tackle in the league is gonna

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Speaker 2: face mister Bosa, who, by the way, if you care

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Speaker 2: about such grades, is the second edg rusher out of

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Speaker 2: one hundred and seven. And then in the middle you've

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Speaker 2: got Armstead and Hargrave, both who are Hardgrave is twelfth

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Speaker 2: and Armstead is twenty second. And again this is going

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Speaker 2: up against Pittsburgh's offensive line, and then the Rams, who

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Speaker 2: Rams are improved clearly, but like this defensive line is

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Speaker 2: gonna obliterate the Giants.

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Speaker 3: Do you remember what the Cowboys did?

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Speaker 4: Like?

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Speaker 2: Why is that not gonna happen again? Like none of

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Speaker 2: these Giants receivers Hodskins slate and they don't scare you.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'm even hearing the oh well, the Giants

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Speaker 2: could all that great? The good vibes they had in

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Speaker 2: the second half against Arizona, what are you talking about?

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Speaker 2: Like just because they got hot and they were desperate,

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Speaker 2: and they said, Daniel Jones just go run around ramble

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Speaker 2: good luck?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, try scrambling.

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Speaker 2: Against the forty nine ers linebackers, Warner Greenlaw good luck?

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Speaker 2: Who funo you gonna running around with that guy back there,

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Speaker 2: Dane Jones, to get decapitated. I just don't see how

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Speaker 2: they score. Maybe there's a miscue on special teams and

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Speaker 2: the Giants. I just don't see how the Giants get

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Speaker 2: to like thirteen points. I just don't see it. So

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Speaker 2: I'm on the Niners. You know ten, I got ten

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Speaker 2: and ten and a half.

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Speaker 4: I don't.

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Speaker 2: I just don't hate it. I do hate that they

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Speaker 2: got shafted last week at the Rams kick at the

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Speaker 2: end there by McVeigh, who, by the way, has tried

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Speaker 2: to explain it, and it's still not making sense two

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Speaker 2: days later. Maybe I'm missing something, maybe the Niners who

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Speaker 2: are sleepy. I saw a stat that the forty nine

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Speaker 2: Ers in their last seven home games are seven or

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Speaker 2: zero against the spread. Whatever that's worth, you know, a

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Speaker 2: trend alert. But it's just like Giants stayed out West.

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Speaker 2: That could be beneficial. It's just to me in the trenches,

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Speaker 2: a huge advantage to San Francisco. And I like the

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Speaker 2: Niners here. Sorry, I think they get it done fairly easily.

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Speaker 2: I don't expect this to be a fun game, and

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Speaker 2: for the bank roll, I would like it if it

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Speaker 2: was not very fun. And the Niners just choked him out,

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Speaker 2: and you know, halftime it was like twenty zero or something.

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Speaker 2: All Right, without further ado, let's get to our guest,

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Speaker 2: Fox Sports Radio's Bertie Fratto.

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Speaker 1: You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows

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Speaker 1: everything when it comes to sports.

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Speaker 3: I know what sports dance wants.

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Speaker 2: But for everything he doesn't, he knows the guy who does.

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Speaker 1: Let's just say I know a guy who knows the

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Speaker 1: guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's bring in a guest we've had on

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Speaker 2: the podcast before.

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Speaker 3: You know him big. He's big time.

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Speaker 2: I saw a big article in the Sun Times about

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Speaker 2: him from December. He's in Vegas making things happen, although

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Speaker 2: I don't like the Raiders. This weekend, we'll get into it.

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Speaker 2: Bertie Fratto joining us, Bernie, How you doing, my man?

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Speaker 4: Hey, Jason, Good to be with you again. It must

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Speaker 4: be that time of year.

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Speaker 1: We always do this at the beginning of football season,

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Speaker 1: and I just got to say one thing. It didn't

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Speaker 1: take long and Brandon Staley is already making history again,

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Speaker 1: you know, Jason. In the history of the NFL, there

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Speaker 1: have been thirty three occasions where a team in their

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Speaker 1: first two games, has scored more than fifty points and

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Speaker 1: ten turned the ball over once.

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Speaker 4: The Chargers scored fifty eight points in the first two.

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Speaker 1: Games, didn't turn the ball over once, and yet they

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Speaker 1: lost both games. That has never happened in the history

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Speaker 1: of the NFL until now.

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Speaker 2: Brutal. I was not on them in the contest in

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Speaker 2: the circuit contest either week. I really wanted to take

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Speaker 2: them against the Titans, thank thank goodness. I may like

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Speaker 2: them this week. We'll get into that soon, Bernie. Let's

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Speaker 2: start with just macro big picture on the first two

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Speaker 2: weeks that are in the books. You give us the

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Speaker 2: divisional dogs every year. In week one, I think they

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Speaker 2: went five and three in week one. I'm just curious,

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Speaker 2: how did you do? Did you make out in the

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Speaker 2: first two weeks so far?

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Speaker 1: I'm off to a pretty good start fortunately. Yeah, Divisional Dogs.

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Speaker 1: Week one, we're five and three. Three of the dogs

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Speaker 1: one out right last week. Teams who lost by double

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Speaker 1: digits Week one cover about sixty percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: In Week two had a couple nice sunders and I

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Speaker 1: had to hold my nose on one particular game this past week.

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Speaker 1: But I was glad that the Seattle Seahawks came through

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Speaker 1: for me, I got it at six before it went

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Speaker 1: down to four.

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Speaker 4: But be that as to me, I'm still pretty high

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Speaker 4: in the lion.

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Speaker 2: So Jason, yeah, that's interesting. No closing line value? What

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Speaker 2: the opposite way? And you still cash it?

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Speaker 3: Is Bernie. There's so many like quote unquote rules.

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Speaker 2: And trends, and all these guys are trying to make

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Speaker 2: their way with little kernels of information.

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Speaker 3: None of that stuff's predictive.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I think we talk about this with

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Speaker 2: a lot of guests, and I know you look into it,

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Speaker 2: but like here we are week three and you see

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Speaker 2: a lot of double digit favorites, and you know the

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Speaker 2: rule is don't touch a double digit favorites. At what

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Speaker 2: point do we This is not blackjack, right, This is

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Speaker 2: not like hey, you hit on the book says that's

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Speaker 2: out the window. I'm curious where you are heading into

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Speaker 2: this week. Does anything jump off the board at you?

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Speaker 1: Well, this is the last week, Jason, Week three where

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Speaker 1: I believe there are bona fide viable trends that truly correlate.

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Speaker 1: And one of the trends that's been pretty strong over

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Speaker 1: the years is teams that start out oh and two,

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Speaker 1: and in the NFL, if you start oh and two,

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Speaker 1: you're covering week three about fifty eight percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: If you start out oh and two and you're not

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Speaker 1: only oh and two straight up, but you were zero

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Speaker 1: and two against the spread, you're covering about sixty three

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Speaker 1: percent of the time. The Cincinnati Bengals fall into that

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Speaker 1: category in some of the Houston Texans, which are actually

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Speaker 1: my best bet. And I'll get to both of those

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Speaker 1: in a minute.

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Speaker 4: We'll get to that. We'll tease that for a minute.

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Speaker 1: But what I was gonna say, though, I'm still kind

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Speaker 1: of high on Cincinnati.

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Speaker 4: I know everybody is, you know, prisoner of the moment.

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Speaker 1: They they've been owing to two of the last three years,

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Speaker 1: and even in twenty twenty one, they had to go

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Speaker 1: overtime in week two to not go oh and two.

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Speaker 1: Jason the send off line for that game against the

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Speaker 1: Rams two weeks ago with six and a half, you

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Speaker 1: can now get it minus two, and I think I

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Speaker 1: think you'll see the Bengals right the ship this week.

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Speaker 1: So again, that's another team I like, I know.

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Speaker 2: Soon Wait, but Bernie, let me ask, how does the

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Speaker 2: Burrow handicap How are you factoring that in do you

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Speaker 2: want to bet it now at two in the hopes

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Speaker 2: that Borough plays, or do you just trust Jake Browning

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Speaker 2: and the Cincinnati defense. It doesn't it doesn't give it

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Speaker 2: matter at all. You're Rocke Macincy.

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Speaker 4: Okay, that's a very good question.

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Speaker 1: If Burrow was not going to play, I think we'd

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Speaker 1: see that more reflected in the line. I'm certain Burrow

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Speaker 1: will play. I don't think that, you know, the Bengals

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Speaker 1: want to take a chance on going oh and three.

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Speaker 1: The structure that offense, look, they're rusty. He watched most

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Speaker 1: of the preseason from a golf cart, and interestingly enough, Jason,

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Speaker 1: as you well know, Sean McVay fielding a very young

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Speaker 1: team this year, so ironically his Rams played a lot

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Speaker 1: more snaps in the preseason than they did than most

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Speaker 1: teams did. So I think tough travel spot for the

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Speaker 1: Rams since he's got a little extra time to prepare

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Speaker 1: for this game. Bottom line is this. I think you

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Speaker 1: see Cincinnati right the ship. I love lou Anna Rumo's defense.

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Speaker 1: He'll pick Stafford off twice. Love my guy, Matt Stafford

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Speaker 1: right on Q fourth quarter last week two key picks

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Speaker 1: could have had four. I think Cincinnati's got the much

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Speaker 1: better squad, and you're gonna get him a real cheap

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Speaker 1: right now, you got a real bargain with him.

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Speaker 4: I think they're right the ship.

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Speaker 2: So one of the pushbacks would be so I missed

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Speaker 2: on the Rams in week one, for sure. I didn't

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Speaker 2: take Seattle in the contest. But what I missed was

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Speaker 2: mcveigh's familiarity with Pete Carroll. He knew them intimately, and

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Speaker 2: he beat the hell out of Carroll historically, and they

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Speaker 2: crushed him in Week two. He knows Shanahan. Shanahan's got

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Speaker 2: the better of him. Shanahan should have got the cover

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Speaker 2: that late field goal.

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Speaker 3: But like, the.

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Speaker 2: Preparation was different for teams that you know and facing

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Speaker 2: division and you've been facing them twice a year or

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Speaker 2: three times in the case of Sanfray. Now it's got

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Speaker 2: to be a Bengals team.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Bernie, I.

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Speaker 2: Don't know what prep is like for the Rams, but

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Speaker 2: I could guarantee you they weren't doing any almost any

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Speaker 2: Bengals prep here the last like three weeks, right, they

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Speaker 2: were all preparing for Seattle in Sanfray. So now it's

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Speaker 2: like on a short week, well not a short week,

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Speaker 2: but you got a week together to put together a

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Speaker 2: game plan. How does that impact the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think the Bengals are going to be extra motivated.

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Speaker 1: Not only are the Bengals zeroing to Jason, they lost

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Speaker 1: both games.

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Speaker 4: To divisional opponents.

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Speaker 1: And in the history of the NFL, it's only happened

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Speaker 1: seven times where a team starts so and two and

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Speaker 1: they lost both games to divisional opponents. In each of

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Speaker 1: those instances, all seven, none of those teams went on

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Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. But I think you're going to

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Speaker 1: see an extra motivated Cincinnati team. I'm glad you brought

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Speaker 1: up Seattle and the Rams Week one. That was another

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Speaker 1: one of those divisional dogs who covered Yes, right, when

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Speaker 1: you've got two divisional teams playing each other Week one,

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Speaker 1: Remember both teams are healthy. Depression hasn't said it yet.

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Speaker 1: You've had plenty of time to game plan and prepare.

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Speaker 1: To your point about how well that Sean McVay knows

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Speaker 1: Pete Carroll. And finally, it takes about three or four

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Speaker 1: weeks in the NFL for the Cream to sort of

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Speaker 1: separate from the pack.

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Speaker 4: Seattle's a better team than the Rams.

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Speaker 1: You didn't see that Week one you'll see it with

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Speaker 1: those two play again in a few weeks, so Seattle

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Speaker 1: will hit their stride. They started two against Detroit. The

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Speaker 1: Rams have probably already level off somewhat. You're gonna get

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Speaker 1: a max effort out of them. But clearly on paper,

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Speaker 1: this is an eight nine to nine to eight team

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Speaker 1: at best. For Seattle, I think is a ten win team.

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Speaker 1: So Week one common you know pattern that we've seen

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Speaker 1: over the years. Two divisional opponents, very evenly matched, and

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Speaker 1: you know, the better team hasn't had a chance to

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Speaker 1: separate yet because they haven't got their legs under him

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Speaker 1: at that point in the season.

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Speaker 2: Gotcha, Let's go to the Houston game. You mentioned Houston

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Speaker 2: is I believe at Jacksonville. Jacksonville coming off a humbling

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Speaker 2: loss to the Chiefs. A lot of people I think

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Speaker 2: the Jags took money last week in this spot and everybody,

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Speaker 2: all the sharp money was wrong. I just like to

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Speaker 2: say that, because all the sharps think that they're so

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Speaker 2: sharp and great. Sharp money's wrong often, but usually you

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Speaker 2: know what, fifty percent of a little less than fifty

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Speaker 2: percent of the time, and they were way off on

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Speaker 2: the Jags. So now the Jags face a Houston team

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Speaker 2: Bernie that they crushed them last year thirty one to three,

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Speaker 2: but the prior nine meetings Houston had beaten them. They

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Speaker 2: had their number for whatever reason. I just saw the

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Speaker 2: Houston injury report. Holy hell, they are so beat up.

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Speaker 2: Sounds like four offensive linemen will be down. Top three

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Speaker 2: safeties out like Trevor Lawrence should bounce back strong here,

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Speaker 2: I like an idiot, bet the Jags at eight and

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Speaker 2: a half. I see it's at nine and a half

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Speaker 2: added toward ten, But you like the Texans. Are you

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Speaker 2: waiting on the ten or did you already grab grab

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Speaker 2: a number just thinking that Houston's acide.

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Speaker 1: Haven't done anything yet. But I insist on getting the

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Speaker 1: ten if I have to buy the half point. Let

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Speaker 1: me digress for just a second. Jason, you bring up

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Speaker 1: a great point about the term sharp money in Vegas.

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Speaker 1: The sharp money is the respected money, the way to

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Speaker 1: be considered respected money. Books pay attention to the amounts

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Speaker 1: folks bet, but moreover, when they make the bet.

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Speaker 4: What do I mean by that?

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Speaker 1: The sharp money folks always managed to get the best

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Speaker 1: line value when they bet the game. For instance, they're

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Speaker 1: not going to chase the line last week again Seattle

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Speaker 1: open at six. The Sharps would have come in at six,

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Speaker 1: they wouldn't have chased it down to four and a half.

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Speaker 1: So sharp money becomes respected money when it is noted

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Speaker 1: that time and time again, the timing in which the

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Speaker 1: individual or the syndicates make the bet seems to be

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Speaker 1: the most opportune, when the line is at its most

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00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,240
Speaker 1: right for the better, whether you're taking the dog or

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Speaker 1: the favorite. Now, let me tell you why I like

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Speaker 1: Houston this week. Yes they're zer and two, and yes

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Speaker 1: they didn't cover either game. History tells us zero to

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Speaker 1: two teams who start going too that don't cover this

339
00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:06,160
Speaker 1: pride either week cover the spread sixty three percent week three.

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Speaker 1: That's built into the line. Here, you're getting a nice

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Speaker 1: heavy line, double digit line. You know CJ's dropped three

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Speaker 1: for three hundred and eighty four yards last week. I

343
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Speaker 1: thought he looked pretty good. Nico Collins and Robert Woods

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00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:22,480
Speaker 1: establishing themselves as legitimate weapons. Houston blocks and tackles well,

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Speaker 1: and they're pretty physical under Dimico Ryans. Here's the problem.

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Speaker 1: Something's wrong with the Jaguars offense. They've only scored forty

347
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Speaker 1: points in two games. That's twelve less than the Colts

348
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Speaker 1: right now, if you watch the way this offense is yeah,

349
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Speaker 1: I mean, if you watch the way this offense is functioning,

350
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Speaker 1: you know, they couldn't score in a women's prison with

351
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Speaker 1: a fifth full of fifties.

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Speaker 4: They're struggling.

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Speaker 1: Houston contest, every player they blocked, they tackle. I'm really

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Speaker 1: impressed physically with how they handle their business against Baltimore.

355
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Speaker 1: Baltimore got the late front door cover. The Jags ranked

356
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Speaker 1: thirtieth and EPA playoffensively, and they're thirty first in the

357
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Speaker 1: pass rush.

358
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Speaker 4: By the way, Houston ranks tenth and pass rush. Add

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Speaker 4: it all up.

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a grind out affair

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Speaker 1: for the Jaguars, and I like Houston to hang that number.

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Speaker 4: Ten is a nice good numbers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's a great point about ten.

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Speaker 3: I am curious though that Colts game.

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Speaker 2: So I watched a little bit Anthony Richardson. I was

366
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Speaker 2: on the Colts for peanuts, but I saw Anthony Richardson

367
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Speaker 2: go down.

368
00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:21,679
Speaker 3: I'm like, damn it, I'm cooked.

369
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Speaker 2: Should I buy back on the Texans? And then Gardner

370
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Speaker 2: Minshew comes in. He runs Stichens offense. I mean, Bernie,

371
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Speaker 2: they're winning thirty one ten in the fourth quarter before

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Speaker 2: some garbage time action from Stroud made it look respectable.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, man, are the Texans the worst team

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Speaker 2: in the league.

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't say that.

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Speaker 1: I still think probably Arizona, although Arizona gives an effort

377
00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 1: to Buddy and they're catching a nice points to get

378
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:52,320
Speaker 1: at home against Dallas this week, and that's one of

379
00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:56,199
Speaker 1: those all and two situations. You know, Week three is

380
00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:59,000
Speaker 1: still when you look at the technical factors, meaning all

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Speaker 1: in two teams and all the up against it, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna You're gonna a max effort. There's thet's say, one, two, three, four,

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Speaker 1: five six. There are eight own two teams that are

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Speaker 1: in action this week. By the way, there are only

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Speaker 1: two oh and two teams that face each other, Minnesota

386
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,720
Speaker 1: and the Chargers. And when that ever happens, you take

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Speaker 1: the dog and that covers sixty four percent of the time.

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Speaker 4: Right now in the games and pick them. But there's

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Speaker 4: no way I can back Randon stately. There's just no way.

390
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:26,080
Speaker 1: He's supposed to be defensive specialists, and ironically their defense

391
00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 1: stinks can't hold the lead right so that I'm gonna

392
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Speaker 1: pass on that game, and I'm also gonna pass on

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Speaker 1: the Bears. They're ower and two, getting thirteen against Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: I cannot, will not, never have will back justin fields. Uh,

395
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:43,399
Speaker 1: there are serious issues there. He's five and twenty two

396
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Speaker 1: as a starter. I don't know why people are treating

397
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Speaker 1: this guy with k gloves. I said it a year ago, Jason,

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Speaker 1: You've been around the game a long time. Football quarterback

399
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:54,159
Speaker 1: is a position you play with your eyes. You receive

400
00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:56,359
Speaker 1: the ball, you make mental snapshots, you make a pre

401
00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,040
Speaker 1: posting that reachs. You try to match up the offensive

402
00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,399
Speaker 1: scheme you're running versus the defensive set you're opposing. You

403
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 1: try to find openings. He can't do it. He's the

404
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:08,639
Speaker 1: game is too fast for him. He's he observes what

405
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,640
Speaker 1: he's seeing, and he's slow to make a decision. He's

406
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 1: slow to react, and he's got a very slow release,

407
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 1: and he's not accurate facts.

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00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:16,159
Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 1: Other than that, he's brilliant. That's why he is five

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00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 1: and twenty two. His default mechanism is to run. He's

411
00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 1: not at Ohio State anymore. At Ohio State he was

412
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Speaker 1: an outstanding quarterback because college football rewards that eleventh athlete.

413
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:32,120
Speaker 1: You're if you're a dual threat quarterback, a college version

414
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Speaker 1: of a dual threat quarterback. Your default mechanism is to

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Speaker 1: run first because defenses aren't prepared for it. Not in

416
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,119
Speaker 1: a National Football League, They'll kill you. He's gonna get hurt.

417
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson's already banged up. If Justin Field sinks, he's

418
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 1: going to play improvisational freelancer this week against Kansas City.

419
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 1: It's about to get even uglier than it already has.

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00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:50,720
Speaker 1: I cannot back that team.

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00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:52,920
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448
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 2: Eligibility and deposit restrictions apply. My big issue with Fields

449
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:23,280
Speaker 2: is I was on them in the contest against Tampa.

450
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 2: I was like, listen, Tampa's not that good. What's his debaker?

451
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 2: Mayfield will make mistakes. He has his through an entire career,

452
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 2: and you know what, this is a good run game

453
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,199
Speaker 2: for Fields and lo and behold Fields has I think

454
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,880
Speaker 2: three rushes for four yards or two rushes for some

455
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 2: minuscule number.

456
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 3: I'm like, what are you doing, Bernie. He's sitting in

457
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 3: the pocket getting.

458
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 2: Sacked left and right there. Goaloffensive line is already decimated

459
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 2: by injuries. I guess the question would be, why isn't

460
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 2: he running? I know, maybe long term you want to

461
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 2: win from the pocket, but you need to get a

462
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 2: win here. You gotta go ninety ninety five yards in

463
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:56,880
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter to tie it up. I'm like, hey,

464
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,640
Speaker 2: Shador Sanders could do it in Colorado, Justin Fields could

465
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:00,439
Speaker 2: get it done in Tampa.

466
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 3: To play the prevent Fields.

467
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 2: Throws a frigging pick six on like the on an

468
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 2: awful call that he actually kind of blamed on the

469
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 2: on the coordinator, you know, and Tampa even said, dude,

470
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 2: we saw this play like five minutes before or a

471
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 2: quarter before, we knew it.

472
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,920
Speaker 3: Was coming, and it's like, what's happening in Chicago.

473
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 1: Bernie Chudor Sanders is actually a better quarterback than Justin Fields.

474
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:25,400
Speaker 1: He's got better footwork, better recognition, his decision making. Oh,

475
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 1: I'm telling you this kid, he's a first round draft choice.

476
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 1: Let's go back to Field.

477
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 2: That's a major hot take. Shoe a hold on Bernie Shadoor.

478
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 2: Sanders is is better. We're going to be better than Fields.

479
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:39,919
Speaker 4: I mean Field's numbers, but he's better. He's better now, Jason.

480
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 1: If you if people ascertain what is expected of a

481
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,440
Speaker 1: quarterback on the NFL level, Chudoor Sanders is more NFL ready.

482
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 4: He knows what he's looking at.

483
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 1: He's got an ability to not only make the right

484
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,879
Speaker 1: decision quickly and get the damn ball out of his hands.

485
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 4: Fields can't get the ball out of his hands. He can't.

486
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 1: Shador does and gets it to the right guy. It's incredible.

487
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 1: Hold that thought. We get to get to that laker.

488
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 1: So here's what's happening in Chicago. Justin Fields is a

489
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 1: big miss and no one wants to admit it. He's

490
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,639
Speaker 1: five and twenty two as a starter. He ran for

491
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 1: a thousand yards last year and they won three games.

492
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 1: So if running was so important, why doesn't it lead

493
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 1: to winning games. There's another thing that's bothersome. Look at

494
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 1: the offense they're running Week one against Tampa Bay. They

495
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 1: allowed him four attempts of more than ten yards. They're

496
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 1: not even allowing him to do it and do anything

497
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,399
Speaker 1: because they're afraid he's gonna turn the ball over. This

498
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 1: is an unmitigated disaster. And what he said today is

499
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: very bothersome. Justin Fields is an improvisational freelancer.

500
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:37,400
Speaker 4: Look, there's been.

501
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 1: A lot of athletic quarterbacks come out of college over

502
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 1: the years. Cam Newton threw for four hundred yards this

503
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 1: first game. He could actually operate from the pocket. So

504
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 1: could Kyler Murray. Soa can Lamar Jackson. Do you understand

505
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 1: that you can keep a play alive with your feet?

506
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:54,439
Speaker 1: But defensive coordinators are too smart. If you make yourself

507
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 1: one dimensional and they know you can't pass, you're in trouble.

508
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 1: That's what's happening to Justin Fields. And I'll even taking

509
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 1: a step further, Jason. When Justin Field is making his

510
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 1: pre snap red walking toward the line of scrimmage, he's

511
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,920
Speaker 1: got to notice if the defense is in a zone

512
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 1: or manda man because even when he runs, he's a freelancer.

513
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 1: If a quarterback sees his own defense, your job is

514
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 1: to run latterly so your receivers can cider just their

515
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 1: routes and get open. If the defense is man to man,

516
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 1: most likely the dbs have their back to the quarterback,

517
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 1: which means you could run vertically. The closest defender to

518
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: you is thirty yards away, your strong safety. He's not

519
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,640
Speaker 1: even recognizing that. It looks like it looks like a

520
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 1: Monty Python cartoon. He just run around all over the place.

521
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,439
Speaker 1: It's not working, Jason, you can see that it's not working.

522
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 1: He drops back. You know you saw dan Orlofski's diagram.

523
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 1: It was brilliant and two wide open receivers. He caught

524
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 1: like he was ready to throw, and I don't know

525
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 1: what happened. He was afraid to let go of the ball.

526
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 1: He wasn't sure trusting his red or he's lost his confidence.

527
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 1: It takes a lot to be a major league quarterback.

528
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,120
Speaker 1: It's a position you play with your eyes. By the way,

529
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 1: what I've seen that of Bryce Young.

530
00:24:58,320 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 4: Be patient.

531
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 1: He's going to be fine. He's got command of the position.

532
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 1: Now back to Shudor Sanders. It's clearly he's been coached

533
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 1: by Brady and Dion. You know, spent what sixteen years

534
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: in the NFL, so he knows what he's looking at.

535
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 1: This is a young man who understands how to operate

536
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 1: from the pocket and let the offensive schemes and the

537
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 1: row trees flow from there and make decisions with your

538
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 1: eyes and then execute. You can't just drop back and

539
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:26,679
Speaker 1: take off and run because it's convenient you don't know

540
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: what to do.

541
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:28,880
Speaker 4: Not the National Football League.

542
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 2: Boy crushing Justin fields man. That was harsh. All right,

543
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 2: let's quickly pivot to the Thursday game, Giants at Niners.

544
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 2: I just saw the Giants injury report before we came

545
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 2: on to record here Wednesday afternoon. Saikwan's out left tackle

546
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 2: Andrew Thomas is out. One of their starting guards is out.

547
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 2: One of their head rushers, o Jalari is out.

548
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 3: Bernie, I know you.

549
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 2: The card is supposed to say, don't take double digit

550
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 2: don't take double digit favorites.

551
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 3: I'm sorry.

552
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 2: I have a couple bets on the Niners already at

553
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 2: ten and a half and at ten, and I can't

554
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 2: help myself. I can't make a case for the Giants here.

555
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 2: The Niners, I believe, are one of the best three

556
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 2: teams in the NFL, and I think they should be

557
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 2: able to handle New York here. Bottle up the Saquon

558
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 2: less Giants. Remember Daniel Jones without Saquon Barkley was hot garbage.

559
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 2: Only last year when Saquon was healthy did it work.

560
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:21,120
Speaker 2: Matt Brida, he ain't the guy.

561
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 3: Bernie. I gotta go Niners here.

562
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 4: Jason, I really can't disagree with anything you've said.

563
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:28,919
Speaker 1: Just as a rule of ThM, I don't want to

564
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,479
Speaker 1: ever lay double digit numbers in the history of the NFL,

565
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 1: going back to the the merger. If you just blindly

566
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 1: took double digit dogs, you'd be at fifty four percent.

567
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:39,880
Speaker 4: But you really can't make a case for New York

568
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 4: right here. Tough travel spot.

569
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 1: They stayed on the left coast, got to go to

570
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 1: San Francisco back to back road games. You mentioned they're

571
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 1: depleted in injuries. The forty nine ers are the most

572
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 1: complete team on both sides of the ball. And by

573
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 1: the way, brock Purdy, I don't know why you would

574
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: have dollars at this point. Justin fields take notes. Brock

575
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 1: Purdy plays the position the way it's supposed to be played.

576
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 3: I think he's got Kyle Shanahan.

577
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 1: You know, well, yeah, fair, but you've still got to

578
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 1: execute the system. Rielance couldn't do it either. So the

579
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:10,200
Speaker 1: bottom line.

580
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 3: Is that's fair, that's right.

581
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 1: I would just I would just say this. I won't

582
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 1: be on the game, but the Niners are the only

583
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 1: side I can look to.

584
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 4: Would not surprise me.

585
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: If you look up in the fourth quarter, it's thirty

586
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 1: one to seven and you got a rocking tier game

587
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 1: on your hands.

588
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 4: I can't make a case for New York. Everything you

589
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 4: said is it is spot on.

590
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, A next game I want to attack. I bet

591
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:36,360
Speaker 2: this early Buffalo Washington. I thought there's no way this

592
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,119
Speaker 2: game stays at six and a half. I'll let me

593
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 2: grab a chunk of the Bills. My biggest bet of

594
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 2: the year lot so far is Bills over Raiders, which

595
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 2: is a lot last. I just think like Buffalo got

596
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 2: their clunker out. When they face an elite defense, it's tough.

597
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 2: Washington is not any elite defense. Russell Wilson embarrassed them

598
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 2: for a half. I don't see why Josh Allen and

599
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 2: company is aren't going to be able to move the ball.

600
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 4: It will.

601
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 2: The only question here is are they be able to

602
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,680
Speaker 2: get pressure on Josh Allen. We know the Raiders couldn't,

603
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 2: but Ken Washington win at the line of scrimmage and

604
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 2: maybe force Allandard some mistakes.

605
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 3: I just I don't know.

606
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: I think the Bills are almost undervalued, Bernie because of

607
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 2: that primetime clunker. Well, they did lead thirteen three, but

608
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,920
Speaker 2: primetime wasted game against the Jets and the opener.

609
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 4: Well, and we all know why. There were four turnovers.

610
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 1: And whenever a team, yeah in the National Football League,

611
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 1: loses the turn over a battle by three or more,

612
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,640
Speaker 1: you lose that game thaninety four percent of the time. Okay,

613
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: Buffalo was fine then except for turnovers. I'm not a

614
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 1: daughter on Buffalo. I think they're gonna be very good.

615
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 1: They had the odd ball year last year, they lost

616
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: von Miller, they had to go to Detroit back to

617
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 1: back games in four days because of the snowstorm. In thanksgaming,

618
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 1: he had the unfortunate situation with Deamar Hamlin. Look, Josh

619
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 1: Allen is who he is. Eighty four turnovers and seventy

620
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 1: eight games, but he's also a dynamic playmaker and they

621
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 1: know it, and they got plenty of weapons. This is

622
00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 1: a mismatch. And I also think they're going to be

623
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 1: chasing Sam hartmullell all over the field or not Sam Hartman,

624
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,719
Speaker 1: Sam Houston, Well, yeah, probably Sam Hartman while we're at

625
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 1: But the bottom line is, yeah, I think you mentioned

626
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 1: Washington's front seven and it's good. Buffalo's front seven is

627
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: pretty good too, And I think if they have any

628
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 1: success on the ground, you're looking at a double. Did

629
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 1: you win for the Bills? I think you got a

630
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 1: good play there.

631
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 2: And the other thing with Washington, everybody's all excited. Hey,

632
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 2: they beat Denver on the road.

633
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 3: Just hold up.

634
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 2: They look like complete dog shit against Arizona and the

635
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 2: opener they didn't cover. For me, I had them, they

636
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 2: didn't cover, and Howell looked awful.

637
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 3: And then on the road.

638
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 2: They start out down twenty one to three before Russell

639
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 2: Wilson vomits up a couple turnovers and makes it interesting.

640
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 2: I just I think people a lot of overreactions non

641
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 2: divisional matchup.

642
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 3: You know, I don't love this one for Washington. How

643
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 3: about this? Why don't you pick a game you go after.

644
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 4: Real quick, real quick? Jason?

645
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 1: Well, the key takeaway for me is Washington surrendered thirty

646
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: three points. Denver just scores about thirty three points a

647
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 1: month last year after nine weeks jasons. You know, last year,

648
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 1: had Denver just averaged eighteen points per game in regulation,

649
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 1: they would have been eight and one after nine games.

650
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 1: So and then they come out Week one against the

651
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 1: stinky Raiders and they only score what sixty points? For

652
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: the fact they put up thirty three against that Washington defense,

653
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 1: Buffalo is gonna get their points, and yeah, Washington can't

654
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 1: get in a shootout with Buffalo.

655
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 4: It's a big step up in class.

656
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 3: I'll let you pick the next game. There's some stuff

657
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 3: out there.

658
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 2: Bryce Young ankle injury, he missed practice. I don't know

659
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:35,239
Speaker 2: if that appeals to you.

660
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 3: Is there any have you hit any of.

661
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 2: The other these other games before we get to obviously

662
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 2: Jets and Patriots, which I think I'm gonna have to

663
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 2: stay away from betting this week, But I don't know.

664
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 3: I'm just curious as to your thoughts.

665
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 1: Well, the one game that jumped at me, but I

666
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 1: don't know if you can chase it now. I got

667
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: it at fifty one? Is the total in the Minnesota

668
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Charger's game. The Chargers six most in points

669
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: in the Vikings offense, I think it's been pretty good now.

670
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 1: The either defense has been great. You got perfect conditions

671
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 1: and doors. That game honestly feels like a thirty four

672
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 1: to thirty one game to me. I think it roars

673
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 1: over the total problem now is it's up to fifty four.

674
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 1: But I'm a big fan, honestly of the O and

675
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 1: two teams that are underdogs this week. Don't go to

676
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 1: sleep on Denver catching six and a half against Miami.

677
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 1: I wouldn't go to sleep on New England. They're at

678
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 1: the Jets and they're laying two points. But I actually

679
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 1: like who living in the spot. I've already told you

680
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 1: about Houston. You mentioned Carolina. Carolina plus five and a half.

681
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 1: Carolina went up there last year and pushed Seattle around

682
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 1: the field. Now they're getting five and a half. Maybe

683
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 1: you buy it to six and again. Arizona plus twelve

684
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,960
Speaker 1: at home is appealing to me. So I'm focusing primarily

685
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 1: on the O and two teams that are dogs, with

686
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 1: the exception of the Bears, of course, and I do

687
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 1: like the over in the Minnesota Chargers game.

688
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 3: Hold on, I gotta go back to something.

689
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 2: So you a lot of these oh and two teams

690
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 2: that are dogs Patriots OHO and two oh and two

691
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 2: against the spread and their favorite Do you have anything

692
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 2: on favorites just by being too h and to two against.

693
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 4: The Well, that's extremely rare. But the Lion's telling you

694
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 4: everything you need to know.

695
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 1: The key is when you go back twenty two seasons,

696
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 1: the two thousand teams that are zero and two heading

697
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: into Week three, they're covering fifty eight percent of the time.

698
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 4: And I don't think the Pats covered ether game, did they? Jason?

699
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 4: So that sixty.

700
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 1: The Jets offenses. Look, Bill Belichick is gonna wreak havoc

701
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 1: on on Zach Wilson. And I think New England is

702
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 1: going to be able to run the ball, and they're

703
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 1: showing enough in flashes. They got to the red zone

704
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 1: repeatedly against Miami, a good team, So I think you're

705
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 1: looking at a grind out seventeen to thirteen game here.

706
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 1: I think New England wins. But again this only two

707
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 1: things served as well. Just like the the Divisional Dogs

708
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 1: Week one, you get desperate teams that are owing too

709
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 1: and they typically play a little but their head and

710
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 1: it's it's baked into the line.

711
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 2: The Denver Miami thing is interesting. So a lot of

712
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 2: the perception here is Miami's favored by six and a half.

713
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 2: The big money won't let it hit seven and they'll

714
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 2: buy back. But I'm seeing, as of right now, bet Chris,

715
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:10,719
Speaker 2: one of these offshore books is at minus seven minus

716
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 2: one oh two, so not the usual minus one ten.

717
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 2: It's interesting because Denver I saw statle. They're number one

718
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 2: in points per possession like Russ and Sean Payton is

719
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 2: working in the opener. They miss a field goal, they

720
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 2: missed an extra point, they lose a game in the

721
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 2: second one, they're up twenty one three, like some fluky

722
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 2: stuff has happened. I get I did bet, you know,

723
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 2: Miami at six and a half. I kind of regret it.

724
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna do it in the contest. I don't think,

725
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 2: but I don't know. Like you know, all I heard

726
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 2: Sean Payton came into the studio last year almost every week,

727
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 2: and all he intimated was I want Vic Fangio.

728
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 3: I want him as my DC.

729
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 2: I want to get vict Like it was clear wherever

730
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 2: he went he wanted Fanngio. Now he has to face him,

731
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 2: and I just wonder if he wanted him because he's

732
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 2: such a defensive goods defensive coach, he's got a rich history,

733
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 2: and now that he's got to face.

734
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 3: Him, I wonder, like, is Peyton a little nervous?

735
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 2: Listen, you know they're gonna bring the house coming after

736
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson, given he looks a lot slower. I don't

737
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 2: know do you break stuff down like that or do

738
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 2: you Is there no value because you know that's all

739
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 2: baked into the number.

740
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 4: Jason, I wouldn't say there's no value. It's part of

741
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 4: the conversation.

742
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 1: It's like Week one when Philadelphia played New England and

743
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 1: people were talking about how Matt Patricius from Aire with

744
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 1: New England and how do you quantify that. New England

745
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 1: played absolutely well enough to cover that game. They had

746
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 1: the two awful turnovers early. I love Vic Fangio too.

747
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 1: He was the architect of those forty nine ers defenses.

748
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 1: When they went to the Super Bowl. Went to Denver,

749
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 1: I thought did a serviceable job as the head coach there.

750
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 1: Now he's in Miami. The key to the game between

751
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 1: Miami and Denver. I know it's cliche, but whoever wants

752
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:56,280
Speaker 1: a turnover battle is going to win that game. Russell

753
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 1: Wilson's been in enough high pressure games and I think

754
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 1: he's showing flash. Sean Payton's just about got him back

755
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 1: to reasonable facts, simile.

756
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 4: But Denver has no margin of error.

757
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: They're gonna have to finish their drives we're gonna have

758
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 1: to you know, look, third downs, the money down. Russell

759
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 1: Wilson's got to move the chains on third down. They

760
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 1: don't pay it a punt on third down. You've got

761
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: to payoff drives in the red zone. If if Denver

762
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 1: can do that, do not be surprised. If that's a

763
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 1: nail bider game going to the end. I think you're

764
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 1: gonna get max effort out of Denver. Miami starts out

765
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: to you a key divisional win, you can't bring it

766
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 1: every week. I mean, it's a situation. Do you know

767
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 1: what human beings here? Denver's gonna be the more motivated team.

768
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 1: And again you've got an O two team for some

769
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 1: two OHO team. The over history sixty two percent of

770
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 1: the time Denver tells us. That tells us Denver is

771
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: gonna hang around here.

772
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 2: All right, we can wrap up with this one, Bertie

773
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 2: real quick. Pittsburgh Steelers going to Vegas. I'm assuming. I

774
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 2: don't know if it's a full SOFI situation where the

775
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 2: road team is gonna have a lot of fans, but

776
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:54,800
Speaker 2: my guess is Pittsburgh's gonna travel.

777
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 1: Well.

778
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,319
Speaker 2: They had a tough game Monday night. I haven't seen

779
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 2: any status, Bertie, this is line that surprises me more

780
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 2: than any other line. This week, the Raiders are favored

781
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 2: by two and a half over Pittsburgh.

782
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 3: TJ.

783
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 2: Watt looks healthy to me. Kenny Pickett looks healthy, Bernie.

784
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 2: This is all about everybody said, Oh, Pittsburgh looked awful.

785
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 2: They couldn't move the ball against the Browns.

786
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:15,840
Speaker 1: Bertie.

787
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,760
Speaker 2: I just want to remind people the Steelers face arguably

788
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:20,839
Speaker 2: the best defense in the NFC in Week one, the

789
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers, and then they faced the best defense

790
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 2: maybe in the AFC in Week two, the Browns, who

791
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 2: look incredible defensively. And yeah, of course the Steels are

792
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 2: gonna look like dogshit. What's gonna happen now when they

793
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 2: have to face the Raiders defense, which was just torched

794
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 2: by Josh Allen and his historically not good I don't know, man,

795
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 2: I think this has to be a big wager on Pittsburgh.

796
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 3: No, what am I missing?

797
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 1: I love the Pittsburgh side here, Jason, Mike Tomlin dressed

798
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 1: up as a dog has typically been money over the years,

799
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 1: and you are right. Their first two games Pittsburgh catch

800
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 1: kept much faster company. Pittsburgh can stop the run, it's

801
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 1: going to be a real long day for the Raiders,

802
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 1: long night for the Raiders. Josh Jacobs ran for minus

803
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:05,879
Speaker 1: two yards against Buffalo and everything flowed from there.

804
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 4: The Raiders are not a good team. They're not well coached.

805
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 1: I'm not a big Josh McDaniels guy at all, you know,

806
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of in the NFL, how deceiving

807
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 1: looks can be one week and how a team can

808
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 1: look completely different the following week. Right, Seattle gets pushed

809
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 1: around by the Rams at home Week one, they go

810
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 1: to Detroit. Troit's got the third best offensive line in

811
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 1: the league, They've got a much upgraded defensive, powerful offense.

812
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 1: Seattle ten point lead, they hang on it ghost overtime

813
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 1: and they get her done.

814
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 4: Completely different team.

815
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,959
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see a completely different Pittsburgh team.

816
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, you know, don't adjust your dial,

817
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 1: and you're gonna see black and gold instead of black and.

818
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 4: Silver in the in the in the Allegiant Stadium.

819
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 1: It'll be sixty seventy percent Pittsburgh fans, no doubt about it.

820
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:52,919
Speaker 2: I Perttie, I just I don't get why they would

821
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:55,880
Speaker 2: hang this line. Is it because a short week for Pittsburgh.

822
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 2: Maybe there's listen, I know they can't stop the run,

823
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:01,319
Speaker 2: and Chubb looked at before the injury, and then Ford

824
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:02,880
Speaker 2: broke off a seventy yarder. I get it, you know,

825
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 2: the mister, the big guy in the middle again. I

826
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 2: just don't know what I'm missing. Why at the Raiders.

827
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 1: Are favor Okay, this is a great question, and I

828
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:14,239
Speaker 1: thought I always enjoyed kidd seeing with you. The one

829
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 1: thing I think that's a misnomer for all folks who

830
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 1: are fans of are betting is that when Vegas posts

831
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 1: the line, it's never a predictor. Vegas is not in

832
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 1: the fortune telling business and they're not in the predication.

833
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:30,399
Speaker 1: They're merely putting a mathematical lineup designed to create equal

834
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 1: action on both sides so the book can maximize profit

835
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 1: and minimize loss.

836
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 4: It all comes to power ratings, the power ratings. The

837
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 4: first two weeks for Pittsburgh have been terrible.

838
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,279
Speaker 1: They've not been good offensively, They're not been good defensively.

839
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:46,839
Speaker 1: The Raiders had a deceivingly good game Week one at

840
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 1: Denver and looked pretty good. So when you look at

841
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 1: you know, yards per play, yards are lot per play

842
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:56,839
Speaker 1: third down conversion, total yards, points, et cetera. Right now,

843
00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh mathematically off to a rough start. So you post

844
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 1: that line and let the markets signed from there, and

845
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 1: I think, right.

846
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 4: Now all the values on Pittsburgh.

847
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 1: But again, the two and a half is not a

848
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 1: predictive that the Raiders are going to win by three.

849
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 1: It's merely a market line designed mathematically to create equal

850
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 1: action on both sides.

851
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 4: Honestly, that's all it really is.

852
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 2: I think we'll see some game day money coming on

853
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,839
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh and Hamlin the underdog. All right, Bernie Prouto, Fox

854
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 2: Sports Radio, great stuff as always, Bernie, a good thirty

855
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 2: minutes of NFL gambling talk.

856
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,360
Speaker 3: Be safe, and I'm sure I'll see you as soon, buddy.

857
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 4: Best to you, Jason, Thanks for having me.