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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Cameron Moscow.

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Speaker 1: Brokers dot com, slash, c m E Group US DOCK

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Speaker 1: index futures are falling after disappointing payroll gains raised concerns

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Speaker 1: that growth is fading. To check the markets every fifteen

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Speaker 1: minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg. Snp E Mini

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Speaker 1: Future is down about ten points. Dow E Mini futures

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Speaker 1: down seventy one, DAS DOCUMENTI futures down twenty one. That

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Speaker 1: acts in Germany's down nine tenths per set ten year

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Speaker 1: treasury of twenty seven thirty seconds, the yield one point

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Speaker 1: seven zero percent yield in the two year point seven

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Speaker 1: six per set. Nimex screwed oil down four tenths per

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Speaker 1: cent er nineteen cents to forty eight ninety nine. A

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Speaker 1: barrel comes gold up to you and a half percent

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Speaker 1: or thirty dollars to two nine announced the euro at

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Speaker 1: other thirteen thirty the end one oh seven point one five.

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Speaker 1: That's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Karen, thanks

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Speaker 1: so much. What has become normal coverage of a job's

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Speaker 1: report has become special coverage. We just heard from Jim Glassman,

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Speaker 1: Bill Grows, Alan Krueger, Professor Blanche Flower from Dartmouth. Mike,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna let you bring in our next guest. But

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Speaker 1: the backdrop is a German yield breaking down to new lows.

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Speaker 1: Were not to record lows yet on the German tenure,

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Speaker 1: but point zero six eight in the yen we may

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Speaker 1: see a one o six handle on en stronger yen

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Speaker 1: one oh seven twelve. We've got a guest, Mike, who

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Speaker 1: got it right. Steve Stanley has been arguing for a

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Speaker 1: long time that the FED is behind the curve and

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Speaker 1: should be raising rates, and certainly thought going into today's

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Speaker 1: number that maybe it would be an excuse for them

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Speaker 1: to do so in June, if not July. Stevie is

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Speaker 1: still sticking to that. How do you as a as

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Speaker 1: a rate rise partisan explain this and and what the

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Speaker 1: FED should do in react. Yeah, well, I mean, obviously

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Speaker 1: it becomes very difficult for this FED to move in June.

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Speaker 1: They've they've been so cautious and u skittish over the

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Speaker 1: last years that it's hard to imagine that they would

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Speaker 1: move UM in June on the back of this number.

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Speaker 1: So I'm having to retreat a little bit. I still think,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think these numbers are so out of

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Speaker 1: character with all the other data that that I look

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Speaker 1: at them pretty suspiciously, and I think we'll get back

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Speaker 1: to more UM, a more healthy trend going forward. So

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Speaker 1: I think they could still go in July if if

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Speaker 1: the numbers cooperate, if you know, Brexit doesn't end the world,

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Speaker 1: and UM things continue to progress the way that they

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Speaker 1: seem to be until eight thirties this morning. But what's

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Speaker 1: the need to raise rates? Well, the so the economy

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Speaker 1: is is certainly UM getting tighter. We're pretty close to

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Speaker 1: full employment. And even notwithstanding, I mean, it's hard to

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Speaker 1: hard to really say what these numbers do relative to that,

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Speaker 1: because UM, while the payil numbers were soft, he had

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Speaker 1: the unplot rate falling quite a bit. UM wages have

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Speaker 1: certainly begun to pick up, and I think that that's

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Speaker 1: something they've been hoping to see. Inflation has moved up

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Speaker 1: a little bit, and I think we'll continue to creep

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Speaker 1: higher going forward. So all the things that they wanted

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Speaker 1: to see, um for the most part, have been happening,

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Speaker 1: or at least until today's numbers. So I mean that's

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Speaker 1: the reason. And of course rates are incredibly incredibly low.

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Speaker 1: Policy still incredibly easy, um, you know, kind of in

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Speaker 1: crisis mode, even though the economy is is years removed

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Speaker 1: from that sort of an environment. We welcome all of

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Speaker 1: you nationwide on America's jobs report is stunning report today.

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Speaker 1: We mentioned VMP Perry BA earlier they stick to no

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Speaker 1: rate hikes this year with Steve Stanley, Michael McKee is,

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Speaker 1: Drew Madis of UBS, he and Maury Harris reiterate they

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Speaker 1: are unlikely to be dissuaded from two rates this year.

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Speaker 1: That from UBS. Michael, Steve, do you have an explanation

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Speaker 1: looking and you've had a chance to look through the

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Speaker 1: numbers now for why the number was so weak? Easu

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Speaker 1: uh tell communications workers off the job, but the rest

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Speaker 1: of the numbers were exceedingly weak as well. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think the paril numbers were kind of weak across well,

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Speaker 1: not kind of, they were very weak across the board,

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Speaker 1: and that is pretty hard to explain, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: and certainly not consistent with what we're hearing in the

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Speaker 1: economy generally. I think the the household survey numbers are

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Speaker 1: probably a little easier to explain in that you get

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Speaker 1: a lot of futility around the turn of the school year,

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Speaker 1: and my guess is that the you know, the actual

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Speaker 1: flows this year didn't quite line up with what the

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Speaker 1: seasons were assuming. So you know, perhaps students were a

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Speaker 1: little later getting into the into the workforce this year,

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Speaker 1: for example, and that might help to explain why the

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Speaker 1: labor force contracted on a seasonally adjusted basis the way

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Speaker 1: that it did. So, you know, I think the drop

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Speaker 1: in the unemployment rate is probably something that we can

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Speaker 1: explain pretty easily. But boy, these peril numbers are really

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Speaker 1: very different than than what you would have imagined given

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Speaker 1: everything that we know about the various sectors of the

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Speaker 1: economy right now. Danny Blasch was just on with us

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Speaker 1: saying it basically, it just shows that the economy is

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Speaker 1: slowing down. The global slowdown is hit the United States, Well,

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Speaker 1: I think that's just dead wrong. I mean, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: the economy is very steady. Um. We had a slow

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Speaker 1: first quarter, but the numbers are pointing toward a pretty

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Speaker 1: nice rebound in the second quarter. UM. And certainly, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you if you were to point to one or

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Speaker 1: two sectors that were UM moving in a softer direction

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Speaker 1: and the paril numbers were consistent with that, that would

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Speaker 1: be one thing. But when you see weakness across the

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Speaker 1: board at a time when, um, when the other data

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Speaker 1: just aren't supported to that, I think that's you know,

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Speaker 1: kind of jumping to a premature conclusion. Steve, before I

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Speaker 1: let you go, your Arch call pushing two years ago

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Speaker 1: was the optimists were flat out wrong, unreal and nominal GDP.

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Speaker 1: You absolutely nailed that call. Do you see a resurgence

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Speaker 1: that gets us somewhere towards a better economic growth? Well,

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Speaker 1: I know, I mean, I really think it's more of

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Speaker 1: the same on growth. But what we're learning as the

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Speaker 1: labor markets have tightened, and again today's numbers a little

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Speaker 1: bit out of character with everything else that we've seen,

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Speaker 1: is you know, you get UM two to two and

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Speaker 1: a half percent growth over called five years and all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, we wake up one day and the

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Speaker 1: labor markets are tight, which no one would have imagined

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Speaker 1: coming into this expansion. We thought it was going to

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Speaker 1: take three four maybe even more uh percent growth um

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Speaker 1: to get there. So I think we're at a point

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Speaker 1: now where uh if we do in fact the slowdowns

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Speaker 1: and payrolls going forward, I think it's more likely because

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Speaker 1: labor markets have gotten tightened, it's just hard to find workers.

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Speaker 1: Then then because we've seen a dramatic softening in demand.

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Speaker 1: A short note of Steven Stanley greatly appreciated, looking forward

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Speaker 1: to reading your research note from Amirate's pure pond. Of course,

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Speaker 1: Bob stins his colleague, Uh, no doubt, we'll have perspective

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Speaker 1: on real jolts. Us sterling was stronger, gives it up.

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Speaker 1: Still strong for the day, but a shift there. Yen

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Speaker 1: one oh seven twenty nine, a big strong move and

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Speaker 1: yen dollar weekers you would expect off the report. Mexican

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Speaker 1: peso was much weaker and actually reversed and got a

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Speaker 1: breath here of strength on a dollar Mexico testing. When

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Speaker 1: you when you look at the reaction to the bond market,

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Speaker 1: the reaction in the equity futures market not that strong. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you think negative twenty or negative future, that's not the case,

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Speaker 1: negative nine, the vix fourteen point zero four. We do

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Speaker 1: need to get the markets open and then further conversation

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Speaker 1: perspective on the American economy, Bloomberg Surveillance. We are out

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