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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action, all.

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Speaker 3: Right. Here we go throwing spect We're sitting up to cash.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to sin.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate combining. And you want to pa

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Speaker 3: and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Bett MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybond of the Action Network, and

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Speaker 1: today we've got our NFL player projections.

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Speaker 2: For Super wild Card Weekend.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna run through our top five players at each

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Speaker 1: skill position, discuss players we're especially high and lo on

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Speaker 1: for this opening round of the NFL Playoffs, and of

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Speaker 1: course we'll throw out some player props as well. Joining

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Speaker 1: me as always one of the most accurate rankers, the

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Speaker 1: most accurate ranker in the game this year. So congratulations Sean,

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Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, the ads maker.

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Speaker 2: What's going on, Seawan?

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Speaker 3: Thank you, thank you, Happy playoffs. I'm really looking forward

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Speaker 3: to sweating all these games with you in New York

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Speaker 3: and potential with people listening to us right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I should mention before we jump in. We

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Speaker 1: have a fun announcement. Sean and I, as well as

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Speaker 1: the rest of all your favorite action experts, are going

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Speaker 1: to be heading to the East Coast this weekend for

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Speaker 1: Super wild Card Weekend. So we're going to be hanging out.

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Speaker 1: We're throwing a wild Card Weekend watch party at the

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Speaker 1: Shepherd and the Knucklehead and Hoboken, New Jersey.

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Speaker 2: You are invited. If you're listening to this, we'll be there.

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Speaker 1: Stucky will be there, Simon Chad Millman from The Favorites

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Speaker 1: will be there as well. So the RSVP is free,

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Speaker 1: even the drinks are free. Doors open four pm Eastern

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Speaker 1: Saturday and Sunday both days this weekend. So for all

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Speaker 1: the details and how to r s v P, be

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Speaker 1: sure to check out the link in the episode description.

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Speaker 2: Uh, and be sure check it out.

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Speaker 1: Fast because we do end up filling up for these things,

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Speaker 1: so do rs VP and and get ahead of that

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Speaker 1: if you do plan on going, but hope to see

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Speaker 1: you guys there, and uh, yeah, it should be it

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Speaker 1: should be exciting. But let's let's get through this these

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Speaker 1: projections first.

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Speaker 2: The important stuff.

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Speaker 1: Uh, Sean, it's obviously a breed abbreviated you know slits

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Speaker 1: here but I'll still do a little top five.

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Speaker 2: Who you got for this week?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I got Dak, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes,

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Speaker 3: and Jared Goff.

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Speaker 2: I like it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I got yeah, Dak, Josh Allen, Hurts, Mahomes, GoF

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Speaker 1: So yeah, pretty much standard top.

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Speaker 3: Five forward right.

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Speaker 2: Uh. Who are are you high on this week?

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Speaker 3: Well, he just missed my top five, but I am

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Speaker 3: high on Matthew Stafford. He's my QB six. But I

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Speaker 3: just think he has a ton of upside this week

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Speaker 3: against his former team and the Detroit Lions. Was able

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Speaker 3: to sit out Week eighteen, got to rest up for

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Speaker 3: the playoffs, so he's going to be, you know, super healthy,

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Speaker 3: ready to go. And he was playing just at a

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Speaker 3: very high level in the second half of the season,

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Speaker 3: one of the best stretches of his career in my opinion.

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Speaker 3: Finished this season with you know, back to back three

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Speaker 3: hundred plus yard passing games. He has, you know, one

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Speaker 3: of the best rookie wide receivers we've ever seen in

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Speaker 3: Puka Nakua. So very excited about this Rams team heading

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Speaker 3: into the playoffs. And you know, the Lions defense has

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Speaker 3: been pretty shaky lately, you know, the end of the season,

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Speaker 3: allowing three straight games of three hundred and forty more

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Speaker 3: passing yards, two of those games to Nick Mullins, of course,

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Speaker 3: so he has a ton of upside here. And this

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Speaker 3: is the first time he's going to be heading back

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Speaker 3: to Detroit since he did leave the Lions to go

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Speaker 3: play for the Rams. So it's like the ultimate revenge game,

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Speaker 3: spot playoff game. Can't wait to watch his game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it should be a good one.

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Speaker 1: The Rams are I mean, it's kind of impressive how

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Speaker 1: they're they're here. We thought they were gonna be one

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Speaker 1: of the worst team in football at least at one time.

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Speaker 3: Was there wind total like five and a half this

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Speaker 3: year or something like really six and a half?

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Speaker 1: It started at seven and a half, and I've met

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Speaker 1: I didn't get on I'm happy I didn't get on

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Speaker 1: it because I probably would have gotten under and then

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Speaker 1: it went down to six and a half and then

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Speaker 1: but yeah, they they smashed through that. And uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: Sean McVay show people what he does. Yeah, I am.

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Speaker 1: I'm high on Joe Flacco. I mean, going against Houston,

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Speaker 1: I think a couple of things. Number One, this is

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Speaker 1: a road match up for Cleveland and Houston is a

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Speaker 1: pass funnel defense. Second in DVO against a run twenty

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Speaker 1: third against the pass. Obviously didn't get tested much with

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Speaker 1: Gardner Minshew a week ago, but I think it could

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Speaker 1: get ugly for Houston pass defense with a guy like

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Speaker 1: Flaco averaging three hundred and twenty three passing yards per game

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Speaker 1: in his five starts, two point six touchdowns. So I

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Speaker 1: like Flacco to put up numbers. You might turn the

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Speaker 1: ball over, kind of like Nick mullins, he might turn

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Speaker 1: the ball over, but I should put up decent passing numbers.

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Speaker 3: Nonetheless, Yeah, those turnovers kind of lead to him throwing more, right,

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Speaker 3: So yeah, can you lose.

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Speaker 1: A possession if they get it, especially if they get

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Speaker 1: a pick six, But yeah, you lose position and get

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Speaker 1: the ball back faster.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, what about who are you loa?

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Speaker 3: I'm low on Tua this week. He's my QB eleven. Actually,

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Speaker 3: you know they're heading the Kansas City there there could

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Speaker 3: be some you know, really cold attempts their potential wins,

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Speaker 3: like in the ten to fifteen miles on our range.

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Speaker 3: So not ideal for a warm other team or an

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Speaker 3: explosive passing offense like the Dolphins, so I think they

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Speaker 3: might lean on the run a bit more. You know,

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs are more of a run final defense. They

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Speaker 3: ranked fifth in DVOA against the past twenty seventh against

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Speaker 3: the run. So assuming the Dolphins get Raheem Moser back

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Speaker 3: this week, I could see them just leaning on Mosert

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Speaker 3: and eh Han a little bit more here. And you know,

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Speaker 3: Tua just doesn't. He has pretty much zero rushing upside,

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Speaker 3: so it's tougher for him to overcome spots like this

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Speaker 3: as a result. So there's a ton of good quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: on the slate, So that's why he's you know, QB

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Speaker 3: eleven on a twelve QB slate, just just based on

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Speaker 3: the matchup, the weather and everything. But I'm pretty long

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Speaker 3: on two of this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, same for me.

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Speaker 1: The only thing I'll add is do you think that

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Speaker 1: kind of lowers the floor from Mahomes a little bit too?

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Speaker 1: Because that's the one guy I think in the top

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Speaker 1: five that I'm kind of worried about.

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Speaker 2: He hasn't really been that productive.

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Speaker 1: And if if Tua is not be and the Dolphins

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Speaker 1: aren't putting up a bunch of points, Mahomes probably isn't

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Speaker 1: doing Like going from like three hundred and three touchdowns either, right.

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Speaker 3: No, exactly, and we'll get to that in the running

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Speaker 3: back section. But I think this is a great spot

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Speaker 3: to invest in Isaiah Pacheco. That's the main reason too.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, it's I don't like having the holes in

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Speaker 3: my top five. But he's barely there. The one thing

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Speaker 3: I will say with Mahomes is we've seen it in

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Speaker 3: the past where he he He's been leaning on his

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Speaker 3: rushing upside a lot this year, but especially in the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: I feel like we always talk about it, we have

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Speaker 3: to raise his rushing projection by like ten yards once

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Speaker 3: we get to the postseason, because he just leans on

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Speaker 3: his legs more so. I think that's how he kind

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Speaker 3: of sustains you know, top five status, is his rushing upside.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point.

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Speaker 1: All right, we got for the problem.

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Speaker 3: Let's see, let's go with Josh Allen's passing yards. This

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Speaker 3: is a game where we could see a ton of snow.

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Speaker 3: You and I have both been talking about just the

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Speaker 3: Bills being an extreme run heavy team now, so just

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Speaker 3: curious where. I don't think any books are offering prosts

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Speaker 3: for this yet because of the weather and everything, so

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Speaker 3: curious where you have it, but I'm setting it at

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Speaker 3: two seventeen and a half.

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Speaker 1: That's that's good, that's low. No, that's I mean, that's

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Speaker 1: until that game against Miami.

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Speaker 2: He had been.

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Speaker 3: And you got me last week with the Baker one

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Speaker 3: at two fifteen. I didn't want to do it, but

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Speaker 3: I took the over and of course he.

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Speaker 2: Finished like, yeah, that was I mean, that's just Carolina.

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Speaker 2: That's yeah. They they haven't scored in the last two

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Speaker 2: weeks of the seasons. That's what happened.

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's see Josh Allen against Pittsburgh. Yeah, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go.

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Speaker 2: I'll go over.

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Speaker 1: It's yeah, it's like it's tough to you know, keep

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Speaker 1: They're definitely throwing less. But I think Pittsburgh, especially if

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Speaker 1: Wad is out, they could.

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Speaker 2: Be vulnerable to some explosives. But yeah, that's a good line.

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Speaker 1: Because if if Buffalo does get a weed, I could

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Speaker 1: see them just kind of sitting on the wall and

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Speaker 1: this could go under. But it's also Josh Allen playoff time.

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Speaker 1: He's got to make a few just crazy throws, digs.

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Speaker 1: Diggs has to, you know, remind people that he's still here.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll go over. But that's a good line.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I was. I was gonna go with who will

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Speaker 3: have more rushing arts, Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts and

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Speaker 3: just setting up as a pick him, and I realized

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Speaker 3: I can't do that. It's it's gonna be Josh Allen.

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Speaker 3: So just he's been running the ball time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, and yeah.

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Speaker 1: That's that's because they're doing more design runs. And then yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's scrambling when when there's nobody open.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's see running back. We've got tough five.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, running back Kyraen Williams number one, then Rashad White,

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Speaker 3: Tony Pollard, Isaiah Pacheco and Aaron Jones.

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Speaker 1: Got Kiren, Rashad White, powered Pacheco and Gibbs Nice. Nice.

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Speaker 2: Who are you high on?

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Speaker 3: I'm high on Isaiah Pachecko. You know I already mentioned

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs. We'll probably lean on pachecka hubbly here. I mean,

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Speaker 3: he should absolutely dominate the early down work. He's been

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Speaker 3: that kind of back all year. But with you know,

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Speaker 3: Jack McKinnon on IR, he's also being He was much

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Speaker 3: more in the passing game as well. He averaged five

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Speaker 3: and a half receptions in the two games without McKinnon

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Speaker 3: and have to imagine it's a playoff game, so they're

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Speaker 3: gonna play Pachecko as much as humanly possible. Plus Miami's

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Speaker 3: dealing with just a ton of injuries on defense. You know,

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Speaker 3: they lost you know, Braley Chuff for the season a

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Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago, but last week they lost both

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Speaker 3: Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Geigel. They've already been ruled

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Speaker 3: out this week, so that those are two starting linebackers

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Speaker 3: they're gonna be without should make the matchup even easier

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Speaker 3: for Pachecko. So, you know, with the Chiefs offense just

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Speaker 3: struggling this year, I think this is a week where

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Speaker 3: they could just lean on Pachecko and their defense and

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Speaker 3: walk away with the victory. So I love Pachecko's upside

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Speaker 3: and both like the rushing and receiving markets this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Pachecko, I mean, they have no choice at this point.

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Speaker 3: And McKinnon.

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Speaker 1: We finally get to see this playoff offense looks like

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Speaker 1: without McKinnon because he's always been like he's always popped

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Speaker 1: up around playoff time and kind of screwed up whatever

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Speaker 1: you thought the usage was going to be.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they have like lean into Clyde Edwards Hilaire a

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Speaker 3: bit over these past few weeks. But I think with

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Speaker 3: the playoffs they prefer to just again use Pa Checko

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Speaker 3: as much as possible. But I think, you know, Cech

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Speaker 3: will definitely mix in a bit, but not as much

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Speaker 3: as McKinnon did.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, And then they still got who's the third

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Speaker 1: p Ryan? Right, They still got Yeah.

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Speaker 3: They have been very cautious of giving their third string

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Speaker 3: back any work yeah the past, so I can't imagine

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Speaker 3: that changing. Last week he saw a ton of work

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Speaker 3: because it was week eighteen. Ye, they've been just sticking

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Speaker 3: with two back committee so far.

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Speaker 2: For me, it's James Cook.

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Speaker 1: I think Buffalo, you know, they've kind of shown this

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Speaker 1: run heavy approach that Cook has been kind of a

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Speaker 1: centerpiece for them. It should be a game when they

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Speaker 1: have positive game script against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And even

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Speaker 1: though you do have guys like four Nette mixing in,

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Speaker 1: Cook still averaging just under seventeen carries a game under

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Speaker 1: the under Joe Brady and a new offensive coordinator. So

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Speaker 1: if there's ever a game for Cook to have a

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Speaker 1: huge workload again, I think it's it's this kind of game.

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Speaker 2: So like cook here, who's you know, most spots.

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Speaker 1: You know, he's ranked seventh or eighth in terms of

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Speaker 1: running backs this week, but I think he could easily

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Speaker 1: have a top five and even finishes the number one

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Speaker 1: running back this week, just based on how run heavy

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Speaker 1: Buffalo I've gotten at times.

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Speaker 3: Yep, who are you low on David Montgomery? He's like

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Speaker 3: my RB twelve against the Rams, and we kind of

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Speaker 3: hit the nail on the head on how the Lions

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Speaker 3: had used his backfield this year. I mean, he was

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Speaker 3: a great playing fantasy. I know you had, you know,

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Speaker 3: the most touchdown bet that was looking like I had

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Speaker 3: a good shot, but unfortunately got hurt. But since Week fourteen,

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Speaker 3: things have changed a bit. You know, they're splitting time

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Speaker 3: between Montgomery and Gibbs on early downs. You know, Montgomery

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Speaker 3: only has a slight edge in terms of rush attempts

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Speaker 3: forty seven percent to Gibbs his forty six percent. So

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Speaker 3: this has become more of a split backfield on early downs. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 3: you know, Gibbs continues to dominate the passing down work.

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Speaker 3: But I think the thing that I noticed is they're

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Speaker 3: really splitting the goal line work too, you know, inside

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Speaker 3: the five. Since Week fourteen, Montgomery has seven rush attempts

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Speaker 3: and Gibbs has six, So that's really cut into Montgomery's

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Speaker 3: touch on upside, which is all he's been banking on lately.

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Speaker 3: And you know, now the Lions are getting cute and

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Speaker 3: throwing touchdowns the offensive lineman every game now, so that

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Speaker 3: is also hurting Montgomery's upside. So I think just with

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Speaker 3: the Lions maybe limiting Gibbs earlier in the season because

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Speaker 3: he's a rookie, he's not like a bigger back. Now

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Speaker 3: that we're in the playoffs, I think they're going to

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Speaker 3: just unleash Gibbs and probably use him more than we've

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Speaker 3: seen when Montgomery's healthy this year. So he's just a

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Speaker 3: touchdown dependent back who isn't really seeing that work right now.

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Speaker 3: So I'd be very careful with Montgomery and maybe DFS

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Speaker 3: formats or like player props. So Montgomery is a guy

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Speaker 3: that's kind of sinking in my rankings this week as

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Speaker 3: a result.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and he'll probably need a touchdown to pay off

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Speaker 1: is his value.

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Speaker 2: Another guy kind of similar, Naji Harris.

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Speaker 1: I think he's a guy who you know, he's popped

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Speaker 1: the last few games, and a lot of hype around him,

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Speaker 1: He's put up good numbers. But if Pittsburgh, remember Pittsburgh's

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00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:16,320
Speaker 1: on a three game winning streak, if they get into

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00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:19,640
Speaker 1: negative game script against Buffalo, Naji Harris's numbers are gonna

290
00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,000
Speaker 1: look nothing like they've looked over the past few weeks

291
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Speaker 1: because he's playing under forty percent of the pass nap.

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Speaker 1: So if you know, Buffalo gets a lead here, I

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Speaker 1: think you're gonna see a lot more jaywhen Warren and

294
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Speaker 1: now She's it's going to be a struggle for him.

295
00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:37,240
Speaker 1: You might probably won't get as many goal line opportunities

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Speaker 1: or anything like that. So Naji's box score could go

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00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:41,760
Speaker 1: from you know, one hundred yards and a touchdown on

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Speaker 1: twenty plus carries to you know, eight nine, ten carries

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Speaker 1: note scores and maybe only a reception or two. So

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Speaker 1: I think, naw, she's a guy who's the floor is

301
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Speaker 1: low for him this week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you on him, But he's like, looks

303
00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:57,240
Speaker 3: so good the past few weeks. He's starting to like

304
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Speaker 3: slowly turn into Derrick Henry. Yes, we've watch and where

305
00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,640
Speaker 3: like he is just out there just bowling people and

306
00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,040
Speaker 3: then very limited in the passing game now, which is

307
00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:07,920
Speaker 3: kind of a new thing for Nag. So I agree

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Speaker 3: if if this game gets out of hand, I mean

309
00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:12,680
Speaker 3: they're what ten point underdogs. Now, that doesn't set up

310
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Speaker 3: to be a Nausey game script that it could be

311
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Speaker 3: more of a Warren game, getting like dump offs. So

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Speaker 3: while nause has look good, this is a spot where, yeah,

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Speaker 3: he is floor as much lower and he's more likely

314
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Speaker 3: to hit it. So he's kind of a tricky projection.

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Speaker 3: But I'm with you just being a little bit lower

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Speaker 3: on this week.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's see for the prop Aaron Jones rushing

318
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Speaker 1: yards because he's been I mean fire, Yeah you could.

319
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Speaker 1: I guess you could get Dylan back for this one,

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Speaker 1: but that doesn't probably won't matter. So that's set his

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Speaker 1: rushing wine yardage line at let's go sixty four, sixty

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Speaker 1: four and a half.

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Speaker 3: Oh, that's a good one. I have it sixty six.

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Speaker 3: I'm projecting Dylan to be back, so let me go

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Speaker 3: at the over just in case Dylan doesn't play. I

326
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Speaker 3: think his ceiling's got higher here. But yeah, I got Burt.

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Speaker 3: I took under sixteen and a half rush attempts for

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Speaker 3: him last week. Got absolutely waxed. I knew that was

329
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Speaker 3: in danger when I think it was like the third

330
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Speaker 3: drive and Patrick Taylor had only played like two snaps,

331
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Speaker 3: so they're clearly just all in like it's playoff time.

332
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Speaker 3: They want to lean on Aaron Jones as much as possible.

333
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Speaker 3: So the only problem is it is a tougher matchup

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Speaker 3: at Dallas. That's really the downside here. But I mean,

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Speaker 3: I knew right away I lost that bet, so I'm

336
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Speaker 3: not going to make the same mistake here again. I'm

337
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Speaker 3: gonna go over.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I mean, that's really the threat is the games.

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Speaker 1: The last three games he's had twenty plus, they've won

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Speaker 1: all three and they were up you know in most

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Speaker 1: of those games. I know the Carolina Carolina came back

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Speaker 1: on them, but they were up two scores in that

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Speaker 1: game as well.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, that's kind of the only worry with him.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Action Network podcast is presented by

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00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:57,440
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Speaker 2: Let's go to wide receiver. Who got in the top five?

355
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Speaker 3: I got Ceedee, Lamb Tyreek Hill, Alman Ross, Saint Brown,

356
00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:35,359
Speaker 3: Pooka Nakua and then it's close, but the tie goes

357
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Speaker 3: to Nico Collins at number five.

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Speaker 2: Ooh, I like it.

359
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Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I got I got Lamb hill A Monro Puka,

360
00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:44,919
Speaker 1: and got Mike Evans still there. But yeah, Nico, I

361
00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:48,760
Speaker 1: mean he's got a good he's got a good, good

362
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Speaker 1: case for alight.

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Speaker 3: Well, I have I have Cooper right there, and yeah,

364
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,639
Speaker 3: I have Mike Evans right there too. But you know,

365
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:58,280
Speaker 3: Cooper just had that historic game against the Texan, so

366
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Speaker 3: he's hard to he's hard to leave out of the

367
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 3: top five. But it's such a good week, and you

368
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:06,119
Speaker 3: know Nico can can't move him down that first play.

369
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Speaker 3: Oh my gosh.

370
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, that I mean that was kind of the difference

371
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:10,320
Speaker 2: in the games. You think about it.

372
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Speaker 1: From then on, they pretty much both sides pretty much.

373
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Speaker 1: For even on Steven, who are you high.

374
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Speaker 3: On DeMarcus Robinson. He's my wide receiver fourteen. And I

375
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:22,480
Speaker 3: have to admit, you know, when I was making my

376
00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:26,280
Speaker 3: initial projections sometimes I'm just kind of looking at the

377
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:28,920
Speaker 3: usage rates. I don't even see the name. I thought

378
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 3: I had done Cooper Cup and I thought I was

379
00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:37,160
Speaker 3: looking at Puka Nakua and it was DeMarcus Robinson obviously,

380
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:40,240
Speaker 3: and I so I saw I was looking at the

381
00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:44,760
Speaker 3: last five games and DeMarcus Robinson was averaging ninety seven

382
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:48,080
Speaker 3: percent routes run rate, twenty percent target rate and those

383
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:51,199
Speaker 3: four games before the Week eighteen less game, and I

384
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,119
Speaker 3: guess he probably got pulled out at halftime, says His

385
00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:57,119
Speaker 3: routes rount run rate was forty seven percent, which was

386
00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:00,119
Speaker 3: pretty much what Pooka did. And then I saw that

387
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:01,600
Speaker 3: he didn't see a target, and I thought there was

388
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,639
Speaker 3: like a bug or something. I was like, no, Puka

389
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:06,800
Speaker 3: had four catches, so this is an error. And then

390
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 3: I saw I was looking at DeMarcus Robinson. But it

391
00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,560
Speaker 3: just goes as show like he is the clear number

392
00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:16,400
Speaker 3: three target in this offense and they are involving him.

393
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,320
Speaker 3: And I already mentioned, you know, the Lions pass defense

394
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 3: has been struggling. They allowed three straight games of three

395
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,040
Speaker 3: hundred and forty plus passing yards. So if they over

396
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,680
Speaker 3: commit to you know, Cup and or Nakua, I mean

397
00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 3: DeMarcus Robinson is sitting right there. He could have a

398
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,840
Speaker 3: massive game. He's been super consistent, which is weird to say.

399
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 3: Just throughout his career he's been sort of a you know,

400
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 3: windsprint kind of guy. But in this offense he fits

401
00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,199
Speaker 3: right in. He's the number three weapon. We've seen this

402
00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 3: in years pass at the Rams, you know when they

403
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:48,200
Speaker 3: had like Brandon Cook's Cooper Cup and you know, Robert

404
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 3: Woods or something. So I love DeMarcus Robinson. This week

405
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 3: I'll be looking at his player props using him in

406
00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:57,440
Speaker 3: the DFS. He's way too cheap in DFS. So I'm

407
00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,639
Speaker 3: super high on Robinson. Like I said, I got fooled.

408
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,680
Speaker 3: I thought it. Look at are alling stats.

409
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's uh, he's just he's taking over that number

410
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 1: three row because I think it's his run blocking too,

411
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:11,320
Speaker 1: So he's not You're not really losing anything going from

412
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 1: him to act well because he's playing so well at receiver,

413
00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,359
Speaker 1: but you're getting you know, just a much bigger body

414
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 1: and a much better run blocker in there.

415
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 2: I'm high on a Ram as well. Cooper Cup.

416
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 1: He's wide receiver twelve in consensus. I just think people

417
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 1: are sleeping on him a little too much too. His

418
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:31,480
Speaker 1: lion uh pass defense is not good. And Cooper Cup,

419
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 1: you know he was He's the only guy he actually

420
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,639
Speaker 1: got rested for. You know, they didn't even bother to

421
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 1: put him on the field, like at least Robinson and

422
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 1: Nakua played. I know the Coup I had the record

423
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,679
Speaker 1: to go after, but Cooper Cup, they kind of put

424
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 1: him on in bubble wrap. He's been running around on

425
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,360
Speaker 1: one hundred percent of the dropbacks. He hasn't been coming

426
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,560
Speaker 1: out at all in the past game these last few weeks.

427
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:53,400
Speaker 1: The only game he came out was when he was hurt,

428
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 1: So I expect, you know, one hundred percent routes and

429
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 1: against a bad pass defense. So I think Cooper Cup

430
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 1: is getting way slept on. For his playoff career. He's

431
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 1: averaging over one hundred yards per game on seven and

432
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 1: a half catches per game. So this is Cooper Cup

433
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:14,439
Speaker 1: time in the playoffs. So high on him? Who are

434
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:14,919
Speaker 1: you low on?

435
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 3: I'm low on George Pickens. He's my wide receiver eighteen

436
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 3: and it's easy to be low on Pickens after a

437
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 3: zero catch game. It's also dangerous to assume there's any

438
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,120
Speaker 3: sort of pattern when it comes to Pickens. I mean,

439
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 3: he has a wide range of outcomes, let's face it,

440
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 3: so he's more than capable of following a dud up

441
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,440
Speaker 3: with a massive game. But I think the real reason

442
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 3: for the dud last week was just the weather. I

443
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,360
Speaker 3: mean there was insane rain that entire game. You could

444
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 3: barely see what's going on the field. You know, the

445
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 3: camera lens couldn't even you know, show the game. So

446
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 3: it's right, very likely going to be similar inclement weather

447
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 3: in Buffalo this week. Like I said, it's going to

448
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 3: be freezing cold, very windy. Could see some snow, but

449
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 3: I'm mainly concerned about the wind where just the Steelers

450
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 3: didn't want to be chucking it down the field with

451
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,120
Speaker 3: Rudolph throwing it to Pickens. So it seems like similar

452
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 3: situation this week where they're going to try to lean

453
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 3: on the run game as much as possible, maybe lean

454
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,199
Speaker 3: on you know, a shorter passing game. So I just

455
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 3: don't think Pickens is likely to hit you know, his

456
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 3: ceiling here. So I met lower on Pickens this week.

457
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I got a similar guy gave Davis. You know,

458
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 1: he's already dealing with that knee issue, but just a

459
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 1: really kind of up and down season for him. And

460
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 1: you mentioned it, this is cold weather game could favor

461
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,160
Speaker 1: shorter passes that just except for the fact that it's

462
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 1: the playoffs and gab always goes off in the playoffs.

463
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 1: But I think they could he might save it for

464
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: like next next round, because I don't know if you

465
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 1: need him to score. You know, four touchdowns against the Steelers,

466
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 1: but he's had twenty one or few yards and four

467
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 1: of his last five games thirty five or few yards,

468
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 1: and nine of seventeen games, eight of those he didn't

469
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 1: score in. So the floor is just super low. I

470
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 1: don't see why they would put them out on his

471
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 1: plate this week. He'd probably be you know, he'll do

472
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 1: the dirty work, probably run block a ton, but I

473
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 1: don't see him heavily involved in the receiving game this week.

474
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 2: So gave Davis for me. All right, what are you

475
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 2: doing for the prop?

476
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 3: Amari Cooper the last time he faced the Texans went

477
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 3: off for how many yards? Again?

478
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,920
Speaker 1: Let's see two hundred and fifty to sixty five to

479
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 1: sixty five.

480
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 3: Okay, so let's try to project him this week. I'm

481
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 3: gonna set the line at let's just go with eighty

482
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 3: and a half.

483
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 2: Oh, that's high. Eighty and a half. Geez, I'll go

484
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:38,440
Speaker 2: under that. That's that is high.

485
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 1: And you know they they they did shut that. They

486
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 1: Pittman was pretty quiet in that last game. You know,

487
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 1: I know Stingy, you know they have they do have Stingley.

488
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 1: He should be able to do something, but I just can't.

489
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:51,640
Speaker 1: This has to be one of those games where they

490
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 1: just like anyone but a Mari, right, like they have

491
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 1: to like triple quadrutin this guy in this game.

492
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 2: Like I don't know, I don't know how they don't.

493
00:23:59,040 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 2: So yeah, I.

494
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:03,199
Speaker 1: Mean yeah, like he's probably he's in the in the

495
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 1: running for the number one overall receiver. But yeah, eighty

496
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 1: yards is a pretty high. That's a that's like, that's

497
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 1: like you're getting toward almost justin Jefferson.

498
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 2: Tyreek territory with that.

499
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm.

500
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 2: Gonna I go under, but I don't feel great about it.

501
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I'm taking Joe Flacco unlocked, like the mar

502
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 3: we've all been waiting for. It wasn't facing Stingley a

503
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 3: few weeks ago.

504
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 2: I mean he was, That's what I'm saying.

505
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 1: I just I just like, I don't know how they

506
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 1: let to do it twice, So I'm just gonna go under.

507
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, it could be a big joker game.

508
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do like a joker.

509
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 3: I think he had a big game that week too, right,

510
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:37,400
Speaker 3: Let's see.

511
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, every it's just Flacco, bro, everyone has everyone's having

512
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: a big game under Flacco.

513
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 3: So yeah, like his even when they were winning, Flacco

514
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 3: is averaging like what forty three and a half pass attempts.

515
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,880
Speaker 3: It's just a completely different offense. So I think some

516
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 3: people might be just using Season of eight metrics, you know,

517
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,639
Speaker 3: when they had not just Deshaun Watson, but you know

518
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 3: dtr or PJ. J. Walker or Jeff Driscoll, whoever the

519
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 3: hell they had under center. But it's like a completely

520
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 3: different pass heavy, fast paced offense that you know, runs

521
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 3: a ton of plays. So yeah, this is a tough

522
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 3: projection to set. Uh. So I had to set it high.

523
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 3: I could. I couldn't let you get away with like

524
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,200
Speaker 3: taking it over on like a seventy five or something

525
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 3: like that.

526
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, it's a it's a fair line.

527
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'll go under just just just because that's

528
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's like, that's that's kind of playing

529
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 1: into the recency bias. So I got gotta fadeed, but

530
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 1: I don't feel don't feel great.

531
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 2: About it, but uh okay, let's go to tight end Top.

532
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 3: Five, Travis Kelcey, David Joku, Jake Ferguson, Sam la Porter

533
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 3: for now, assuming he does play in Dallas, Goddard.

534
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got.

535
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: Kelsey, Najoku, Ferguson got her Kincaid. But yeah, Laporta is

536
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 1: kind of floating around there, probably be in the top five,

537
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: but I mean that's kind of what happens when you

538
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 1: play your starters, Like I know, you don't really need.

539
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 2: To play your starf that's a big loss if he

540
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,360
Speaker 2: sits out. So was he was he?

541
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:06,919
Speaker 3: I don't think it was incentives obviously, but what was

542
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 3: he going for? Like a tight end rookie record or something?

543
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 2: He got it?

544
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 1: I think it was that tenth touchdown and then the yards.

545
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 1: I think he did get it, but he has got hurt.

546
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, at what cost? Yeah, that's a bummer. It

547
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 3: does sound like it's more likely he's I thought they

548
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 3: said he's basically out for like multiple weeks, but now

549
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,399
Speaker 3: they're hinting that he could be ready. So this is

550
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 3: this is gonna be tricky all week of course.

551
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you got I feel like, just from

552
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 1: a PR standpoint, you got to give him like the

553
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 1: positive spin because it would just suck if like everyone's like,

554
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 1: oh man, he's meeting with game you know what I

555
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 1: and so you got it just kind of say, yeah,

556
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 1: he's playing in at the last minute.

557
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 2: Oh you know, he tried it in a warm up

558
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 2: but just didn't work out.

559
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, even even brock Wrights questionable. So what are they

560
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 3: gonna do? Like, is it possible they could like bring

561
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 3: in zach Ertz for one game? Is that crazy? I?

562
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 2: You know what? I I don't know how the do

563
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 2: you does a player?

564
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 1: Doesn't a player have to be on the regular season

565
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 1: roster to being the playoff for I don't know how.

566
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 2: The playoff rosters looking.

567
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I would have to double check that, but

568
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 1: I mean I don't I'm guessing no because no one

569
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,439
Speaker 1: has really sniffed around at er at all.

570
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:14,880
Speaker 2: I feel like he would have been signed by now.

571
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 2: I don't know what what's up with him? You have

572
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:23,640
Speaker 2: something they have, well, they have Anthony Ferkser. I think

573
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 2: on the he's been up.

574
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 1: He's been up a weaker one of the I think

575
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 1: at least one of these last two weeks he didn't

576
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 1: play on offense, but he's been with the team and practicing,

577
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: so I assume that. I mean, he's a guy I

578
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 1: guess for you know, dfs dark throw things like that.

579
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 1: If the porter misses, it'll be James Mitchell. If right

580
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:46,400
Speaker 1: is out, it will probably be James Mitchell. And foks

581
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,719
Speaker 1: Or ferks is actually like kind of more like a

582
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 1: wide receiver, like almost like a Gesicki type guy. So

583
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 1: I mean that's somebody to watch. But yeah, get they have.

584
00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 3: To get Maybe they use more two running back sets,

585
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:00,679
Speaker 3: use Gibbs.

586
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's actually probably what they would do now that

587
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 1: I think about it. I mean, you don't draft you

588
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 1: have to running backs and one of them like can

589
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 1: play the slot.

590
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:10,439
Speaker 2: So yeah, they probably do that.

591
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 1: And they also have their full back Cabinda, so they.

592
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 3: I thought he's toast. I thought he's gone. What happened

593
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 3: to him? I think he's gone.

594
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 2: He got like waved and unwaved. Yeah, I think he's back.

595
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 3: I think he's I think maybe it'll He'll just keep

596
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 3: making like Taylor Decker, Graham Glasgow, whichever offensive lineman is

597
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 3: eligible can can be the tight end. Yeah.

598
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: No, Cobenda's back, he's on like he was the last game.

599
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: He's back on the practice squad, but like they could

600
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 1: elevate him again. So yeah, I'm sure between all those guys, yeah,

601
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 1: it probably just won't be tight end heavy.

602
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 2: If the flip board is out, who are you higher?

603
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 3: Dallas Goddter, He's my tight end five against the Buccaneers.

604
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 3: Really came back strong in week fourteen. We're returning from

605
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 3: his injury. I was surprised, you know, how effective he

606
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 3: was coming back from that injury. But you know, last

607
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 3: four games routes run rate, twenty three percent target rate.

608
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 3: You know, with both A. J. Brown and DeVonta Smith

609
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 3: banged up, just may have to lean on him even more.

610
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 3: And this is a game we could see some heavy rain.

611
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 3: Granted this game is like a week from today, so

612
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 3: not going to really put too much stock in weather reports,

613
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 3: but if there is, you know, heavy rain something like

614
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 3: that get a result in more froze underneath, which would

615
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 3: only benefit someone like Otter. But either way, rain or shine,

616
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 3: like Goddard is set up for a big game here.

617
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 3: You know, really could thrive if both Aj Brown and

618
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 3: Devanta Smith are limited anyway here.

619
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 2: I mean nightmare, nightmare season for the Eagles.

620
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, just brutal.

621
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the tight end on the other

622
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 1: side in that game, Kate Atton, just because he's oh yeah,

623
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 1: you know, like this is one of those slates, in

624
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 1: one of those weeks where you're gonna forget about a

625
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 1: guy like and as you should. He hasn't really done

626
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 1: much this year. But now you're talking about a one

627
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: game slate and you're talking about a game where Tampa.

628
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 2: Bay may be trailing.

629
00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: You know, maybe who knows, they might not it's the Eagle,

630
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 1: but either way, Philadelphia's bottom five and Dvoa against tight end.

631
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 1: We know they've had their issues with linebackers all season.

632
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 1: And Godard excuse me, and does see over half of

633
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 1: his targets when trailing. All four of his touchdowns have

634
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: come when trailing. He's running a route pretty much on

635
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 1: every single Baker Mayfield drop back. So if you do

636
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: get into a situation where Tampa Bay is in, you know,

637
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 1: must Throwbode. He's going to be out there with you know, three,

638
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 1: three or four wide receivers. So like Kate Otton is

639
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:32,479
Speaker 1: kind of a forgotten cheap option here. Who's you know,

640
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 1: no one's really talking about, but especially the DFS.

641
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 2: I think he's worth. It's rolling out there.

642
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, ninety routes run rate last week, the third time

643
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 3: in the past six weeks. Just absolutely elite playing time.

644
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 1: He's always out there. Now he doesn't al he's too much,

645
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 1: but he's out there.

646
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 3: Yeah.

647
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean the Eagles, they're gonna have to scheme.

648
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 2: They're gonna have to.

649
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 1: You gotta, you gotta scheme on Evans, So maybe maybe

650
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 1: not and gets an extra target or two.

651
00:30:59,280 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 2: But who you long?

652
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 3: Dalton Schultz, he's my tight end six tough matchup here

653
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 3: against the Browns. Came up just short on his incentives

654
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 3: last week in a pretty easy matchup, or an easier matchup,

655
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 3: But he has a much tougher test this week against

656
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 3: the Browns defense that you know, they use man coverage

657
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 3: with the highest rate. Very good against tight ends. Although

658
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 3: I will note, you know, with Anthony Walker on IR

659
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 3: it does make the matchup a little bit easier for

660
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 3: tight ends. You know, he posted what was it like

661
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 3: eight catches against him just a few weeks ago. So

662
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 3: not having Walker there does hurt. But this is a

663
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 3: tougher spot, and especially if both you know Robert Woods

664
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 3: and know about Brown returned this week, you know that

665
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 3: could eat in the Schultz's target share a bit. So

666
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:45,959
Speaker 3: this is a spot where I'm a bit lower on Schultz,

667
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 3: but just given it's a smaller slate, He's still my

668
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 3: tight end six, but a little bit lower on him

669
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 3: than I was last week.

670
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, he got voted by Andrew Beck last week.

671
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 3: I love it.

672
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 1: So for me, yeah, it's I mean it's not necessarily

673
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 1: a guy I'm super low on, but I do want

674
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: to kind of just talk about him. And you've kind

675
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 1: of talked hinted out of the past, like what's going

676
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 1: on with Kelcey?

677
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 2: Like how confident are we in him?

678
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,719
Speaker 1: As like is he the old Travis kelce Is he

679
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 1: like one of the top plays on the slate? Is

680
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 1: he just kind of like barely you know ahead of Nadjoku?

681
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 1: Like what do we what are we feeling like for Kelsey?

682
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 1: Because I mean this is a career low ten point

683
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:31,239
Speaker 1: six yards per reception. The yarde per game doesn't look

684
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: too bad. Sixty two that's kind of in line with

685
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 1: his last you know, excuse me, it's it was sixty six,

686
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 1: which is it's not it's like it's lower.

687
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 2: Than it's been since like twenty fifteen.

688
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 1: But you know it's still I mean, he's been in

689
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 1: the seventies, seventy nine, seventy the last two years, So

690
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 1: now sixty six, So yards per game is lower, yards

691
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 1: per catch a career low.

692
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 2: What do we think of Kelcey against Miami?

693
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's tough, I would say to answer your first question,

694
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 3: I think, yeah, he's he's barely ahead of David Joku.

695
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 3: That's how I'm thinking of him this week. I mean,

696
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 3: who knows he's getting old. We thought the decline would

697
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 3: happen at some point, we weren't sure when. Maybe that's

698
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 3: what we're witnessing. Maybe, you know, the Taylor swift is

699
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 3: a bit of a distraction. You know, he has other

700
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 3: things he's worrying about. But I just look at his

701
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 3: A dot the past three games is two point nine yards.

702
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: You know, he's not really seeing targets downfield. There's a

703
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 3: lot of let's just put it this way. I think

704
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 3: it's just everything hitting at once. Maybe having the week

705
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 3: off will help. He's been complaining that he you know,

706
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 3: he's always hurt. You know, he's dealing with things. He's

707
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 3: been playing football while he's hurt too. Sorry, the season hurt,

708
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 3: remember that.

709
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 1: I think that first he missed it all out right,

710
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken against the Troit.

711
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, exactly. He wasn't able to suit up. So

712
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 3: he's just getting that point in his career. It's just

713
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 3: harder to recover. So so maybe having the week off

714
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 3: to rest will help. It's the playoffs, so he'll bounce back.

715
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 3: But right now I have her she Rice project for

716
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 3: more receptions, more yards than Travis Kelcey, So I don't

717
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 3: even consider him the number one target in this offense

718
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 3: right now. So yeah, I just think it he's He's

719
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,839
Speaker 3: still I would say he's still the clear top tight

720
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 3: end right now, but the gap is narrowing. And like

721
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 3: I said, I think Djoku is right there with him

722
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 3: this week, and I'm looking ahead the next year. I

723
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 3: think it's me interesting. I think we're seeing all these

724
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 3: good young tight ends are going to be moving up.

725
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 3: I just think the gap is closing. He's still the

726
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 3: top tight end, but he's not as dominant as he was,

727
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 3: you know, the past few seasons.

728
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Miami is thirtieth in DVOA against tight end,

729
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 1: so they haven't been good. But when Kelsey played Miami,

730
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:41,280
Speaker 1: three catches on four targets for fourteen yards, no touchdown.

731
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's tough to really hang a hat on

732
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,879
Speaker 1: anything with Kelsey. Ye last one hundred yard game came

733
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: October twenty second against the Chargers. You'll only had two

734
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 1: of those all year, So yeah, I'm kind of looking

735
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 1: at little like he's not. It's like one of those

736
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 1: guys where you know, like I'm jamming him in a

737
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 1: flex even if I have already have another tight end

738
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 1: or anything like that. Kind of got to play it

739
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:04,759
Speaker 1: a little more straight up. But at the same time,

740
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 1: like it is Kelsey and it is my home, so

741
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if you know, playoffs start and

742
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 1: they're like, oh yeah, remember us and and put up

743
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 1: a big game at the same time.

744
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's yeah, and with with Baker and Van

745
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 3: Geekole both out, that makes the matchup easier, right, Like

746
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 3: someone's gonna have someone else is gonna have to match

747
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 3: up with Kelsey. Uh, So I agree, I would be

748
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 3: shocked that he has a big game, but just have

749
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 3: the lower expectations a bit.

750
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:35,280
Speaker 1: Now, Yeah, all right, let's see for the prop.

751
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 2: Let's go with Kelsey actually, just because that's the funnest one. Yeah,

752
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 2: all right, receiving yardage. I'm gonna go with I.

753
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:46,760
Speaker 3: Can't believe you put yourself in this situation.

754
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 2: I mean, I just think it's an interesting question.

755
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 1: It's Yeah, it's one that people should want to think about,

756
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,320
Speaker 1: you know because even even like the other thing with

757
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 1: Kelsey and guys like this Mahomes is, like, especially in

758
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 1: the playoffs, you gotta be wary of if you're betting props.

759
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 1: Is like you're going to kind of pay that tax

760
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 1: for like the just like the name value of these guys.

761
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 1: So I assume, like whatever line I said, I'm pretty

762
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:10,840
Speaker 1: sure the books are going to probably set it even higher.

763
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, so but let's go sixty six and.

764
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 3: A half under that, I have it close, I have

765
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:24,400
Speaker 3: it sixty two. Yeah, and I will say books do

766
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 3: have this prop up? Now? Do you want to hear it? Yeah?

767
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 2: What is it?

768
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 3: Fifty five and a half? Which I agree they have

769
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 3: to set it higher, like you know that they're just

770
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 3: taking over action on them, especially that. Remember it does

771
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 3: seem low. I wouldn't take over, But it's just this

772
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 3: is a tough, tough, tough prop this week. And do

773
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 3: you remember three years ago when I was holding my

774
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 3: nose and saying I was betting the under one of

775
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 3: sixty and a half. Yeah, they cleared it by halftime.

776
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 3: I might have to, well, this prop's too low, but

777
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 3: I might have to undo my law of never betting

778
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 3: on Kelsey unders because I've been Yeah, wow.

779
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 2: I no that I mean fifty five and a half.

780
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: That that that tells you, I mean, number one, the

781
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 1: weather is obviously concerned, but number two, it tells you

782
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 1: that like where the public sentiment probably is Kelsey is

783
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 1: probably they probably they might be taking action on unders.

784
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: That's why they said, because I don't see why they

785
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 1: would open it so well, like I could see it right,

786
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 1: you know, kind of getting there.

787
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's that's yeah.

788
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:26,879
Speaker 3: I Thrice is that sixty two and a half that

789
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:29,399
Speaker 3: sounds low. I would be more comfortable taking his over

790
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 3: if I'm being Yeah, but they have Rice's prop seven

791
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 3: years higher than Kelsey, which might be the first time

792
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 3: that's happened. But yeah, it does seem like they're lowering

793
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:42,280
Speaker 3: them due to weather, Like, I think that's certainly factoring

794
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 3: in here.

795
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's that's what it is.

796
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 1: But so you might have had a ton of value,

797
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:47,759
Speaker 1: you might get a ton of value here on that

798
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 1: sixty six and a half.

799
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 2: We'll see. But what's good now?

800
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that is going to.

801
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 2: Do it for a super wild card weekend.

802
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 1: NFL Player Projections episode of the Action Network podcast presented

803
00:37:59,880 --> 00:38:03,560
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00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:05,080
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