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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to Voter Nomics,

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Speaker 1: where politics and markets collide. This year, voters around the

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Speaker 1: world have the ability to affect markets, countries, and economies

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Speaker 1: like never before, so we've created this series to help

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Speaker 1: me make sense of it all. I'm Aleca Stratton and

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Speaker 1: this week we actually don't have the usual Voter Nomics

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Speaker 1: crew Stephanie's in Barcelona and Adrian's in New York, but

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Speaker 1: instead we've got two of Bloomberg's top UK reporters right

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Speaker 1: here in the studio with us to join us for

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Speaker 1: this episode, Alex Wickham, Westminster political editor and Alvarey, reporter

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Speaker 1: and fellow read Out newsletter writer. We are a month in,

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Speaker 1: guys to this election. How are you bearing up?

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Speaker 2: Probably better than most of our sources who seem to

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Speaker 2: be on the last legs. I'm not sure how we're

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Speaker 2: going to do another nine days but not long now?

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Speaker 3: Is that from?

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Speaker 2: Is that all parties or all parties? I think it's

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Speaker 2: just so hard on a campaign, isn't it. It's one

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Speaker 2: thing being journalists go on a bus, you know, late nights,

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Speaker 2: but you know, if you're if you're an advisor or candidate.

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Speaker 2: You're just absolutely constant, has no escape.

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Speaker 1: If I think back to the battle buses that I

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Speaker 1: was on, I can think of the moment the morning

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Speaker 1: after David Cameron TV debate where he was expected to

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Speaker 1: wipe the floor with everybody else and he really didn't.

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Speaker 1: It was the one where Nick Clegg came out on

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Speaker 1: top six years and years ago, and the mood on

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Speaker 1: the bus was horrendous, really low, and you could sense

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Speaker 1: the team didn't know what they were going to do.

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Speaker 1: And then my other favorite was Nick Klegg used to

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Speaker 1: have these sneaky cigarettes around the back of the well,

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Speaker 1: not round the back of the battle bus. He would

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Speaker 1: go kind of one bus away and he didn't think

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Speaker 1: that like twenty journos sussed him out on this, what's

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Speaker 1: what's been your sort of impression from the buses?

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Speaker 4: So sadly, Alegra the buses are much less fun than

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Speaker 4: the name of Cameron days. They've changed how much access

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Speaker 4: you really get. So even though Labor publicizes its battlebus

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Speaker 4: with Kirstarmer and Angela Rayner, the press is on a

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Speaker 4: separate bus and he tends to travel around in I

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Speaker 4: know I'm ruining the magic, and he tends to travel

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Speaker 4: around in his land Rover with his special protection officers,

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Speaker 4: and then we are allied on the bus for brief moments.

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Speaker 4: So I think I've been on the on the bus

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Speaker 4: with Kirstarma for a total of aboute and hor Some

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Speaker 4: of that he was behind a little curtain. Some of

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Speaker 4: that he came out and chatted to us. But I

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Speaker 4: think Alex has had a bit more of an interesting time.

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Speaker 3: Have your bus has been better?

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Speaker 2: The Conservative Bus is Oxford United football team's former bus,

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Speaker 2: so it's very i would say, pretty nice quality. It's

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Speaker 2: journalists only and then you sort of get ten or

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Speaker 2: fifteen minutes if you're lucky with the Prime Minister. Richie

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Speaker 2: Sunek is very tigerish and he's very good at sort

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Speaker 2: of geeing himself up for a chat with the media.

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Speaker 2: In my highlights from Tory Bus the other day was

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Speaker 2: they took us to a farm with David Cameron and

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Speaker 2: Richie Sinak, and David Cameron and a farmer were trying

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Speaker 2: to feed some sheep and as soon as they offered

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Speaker 2: the food, the sheep all ran in the opposite direction

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Speaker 2: extremely quickly, and Prime Minister sort of sunk to his

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Speaker 2: haunches and just shook his head and and he sort

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Speaker 2: of you almost started to feel a bit sorry for

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Speaker 2: him at that point.

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Speaker 4: We were joking yesterday that we were trying to find

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Speaker 4: interesting things that kir Starmer has done on the battle Bus,

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Speaker 4: and we were really racking our brains for interesting color.

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Speaker 4: And we've observed that whenever he gets to a new

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Speaker 4: non league football ground, he just looks around and says, fantastic, fantastic, fantastic.

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Speaker 3: This is super disciplined. Basically.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he comes up for a short visit with some supporters.

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Speaker 4: They all have their placards. He gives the same stump speech,

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Speaker 4: gives one interview to local TV, then he's back, travels

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Speaker 4: for another two hours, Rinse, repeat, same message, same message.

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Speaker 4: So the bus can get a bit monotonous.

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Speaker 3: Right Well.

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Speaker 1: In this week's episode, we're looking at Labour's foreign policy plans.

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Speaker 1: Given the most likely outcome of the July fourth election

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Speaker 1: is that it is a Labor government, it would be good,

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Speaker 1: wouldn't it to know what the party has planned for

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Speaker 1: the UK's relationship with Europe, the US and the rest.

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Speaker 3: Of the word.

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Speaker 1: So, in a word, is it clear what Labor's foreign

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Speaker 1: policy will be?

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Speaker 2: I think continuity is probably the main thing. They don't

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Speaker 2: want anything against the grain at the moment in Europe,

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Speaker 2: particularly on things like Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: They have two words for it, bitgrand signing progressive realism,

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Speaker 4: which in practice just sort of means that they will

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Speaker 4: pay lip service to their progressive values while being actually

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Speaker 4: quite pragmatic about dealing with some very difficult foreign states

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Speaker 4: like India.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, well to talk through progressive realism and

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Speaker 1: reality of how some of that will work in practice,

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Speaker 1: we will shortly be turning to Tom Fletcher. He's a

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Speaker 1: former foreign policy advisor to no less than three UK

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Speaker 1: prime ministers. He's now principle of Hartford College at Oxford University.

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Speaker 1: Also on the show, we have Ellen Milligan, who's a

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg reporter hopefully probably familiar to lots of you, and

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Speaker 1: she's just published some brilliant analysis on kids damer and

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Speaker 1: what she believes is his silence when it comes to Brexit.

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Speaker 1: So now we're going to go to our on the

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Speaker 1: ground voice for the week, Bloomberg's reporter, Ellen Milligan, who

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Speaker 1: you can't see, but she's sitting with her very virtuous What.

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Speaker 3: Is it, Ellen, It looks darker than just normal green juice.

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Speaker 5: It's a green juice mixed with kafir.

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Speaker 3: And is it your election? Is it your election coping strategy?

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Speaker 5: It's my it's getting me through the sleep deprivation and

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Speaker 5: lack of vitamin d yes.

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Speaker 1: Ellen, you published a piece about Brexit and Starmer. Just

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Speaker 1: talk us through the things that the sources were telling you.

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Speaker 5: Well, Labor has this what it describes as an ambitious

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Speaker 5: plan to forge closer ties with the EU. They describe

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Speaker 5: it as a new geopolitical partnership that they want to

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Speaker 5: build with their closest trading partner. But the truth is

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Speaker 5: that it's actually quite unambitious in the sense that it

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Speaker 5: sets some very clear redlines. Labor will not rejoin the

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Speaker 5: Customs Union, the Single Market will return to freedom of movement,

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Speaker 5: which means it's very limited in what it can do.

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Speaker 5: And essentially all it can do is kind of tinker

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Speaker 5: around the edges of the training Cooperation Agreement that was

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Speaker 5: agreed in twenty twenty, rather than fundamentally alter the trading relationship.

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Speaker 5: So it's got a few plans. One is a veterinary agreement,

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Speaker 5: which will ease that border friction, particularly on fresh food

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Speaker 5: and plants. The other is a security pat which actually

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Speaker 5: the EU had offered Boris Johnson and he rejected it.

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Speaker 5: In the negotiation, which is to cooperate on defence R

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Speaker 5: and D, joint procurement of weaponry for example for Ukraine,

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Speaker 5: and then also mutual recognitions of professions and visas for musicians,

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Speaker 5: all things that from my conversations with UK government officials

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Speaker 5: in the Foreign Office, Labor and EU diplomats are durable

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Speaker 5: but will involve concessions.

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Speaker 1: So it feels to me like there's two points there.

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Speaker 1: One is that they'll have to do things that they

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Speaker 1: might be criticized for. Do you think they'll be criticized

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Speaker 1: for them or do you think that actually with the

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Speaker 1: new government and you know many people saying the opinion

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Speaker 1: polls are becoming more skeptical about Brexit, do you think

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Speaker 1: they will have the kind of political now is to

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Speaker 1: get away with them.

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Speaker 5: There's I think two reasons why they their ambition on

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Speaker 5: the EU is limited. One is the political reason. They

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Speaker 5: want to win back those particularly the Red Wall parts

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Speaker 5: of the country that voted leave in twenty sixteen and

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Speaker 5: they lost in twenty nineteen to the Conservatives, many for

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Speaker 5: the first time those constituencies. But also it's a genuine

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Speaker 5: desire for their first five year term not to be

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Speaker 5: distracted by the same old debates about Brexit and you

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Speaker 5: know which distracted the government Conservative government from public services

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Speaker 5: and all these things for several years. I think when

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Speaker 5: it comes to things like concessions like the ECJ, I

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Speaker 5: don't think they'll have a lot of backlash internally in

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Speaker 5: their Labor party, especially if they have a big majority.

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Speaker 5: In fact, the labor base tends to be more pro

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Speaker 5: kind of things like a youth mobility deal that we

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Speaker 5: have reported in here that they actually are open to negotiating,

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Speaker 5: even though they've dismissed it publicly. But I think whether

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Speaker 5: their majority is big or not will defend whether they

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Speaker 5: mind so much about that.

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Speaker 4: Ellen, there's a really interesting nugget in the piece that

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Speaker 4: you used to lead with when you were promoting it,

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Speaker 4: which is what labor advisors and senior figures are saying

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Speaker 4: privately about the prospect of rejoining the EU or the

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Speaker 4: kind of the benefit that would have to the economy.

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Speaker 4: Do you want to just spell actually the thing that

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Speaker 4: they're admitting, which makes everything else that you've just said

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Speaker 4: so extraordinary.

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Speaker 5: I think the big overarching question for this whole five

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Speaker 5: year term that Labour's likely to get is it's so

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Speaker 5: reliant on economic growth being able to fund everything they

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Speaker 5: want to do, pretty much on public services in particular,

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Speaker 5: on defense spending, all these things. They want to get

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Speaker 5: up to that kind of two percent growth that we

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Speaker 5: saw under the Tony Blair euro that's stagnant for the

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Speaker 5: last few years. And what Labor, some senior Labor advisors

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Speaker 5: have conceded to me kind of privately, is that they

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Speaker 5: know that one of the most impactful ways that they

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Speaker 5: can achieve economic growth is to, for example, rejoin the

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Speaker 5: Customs Union or the Single Market, and yet they have

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Speaker 5: given insurances privately and publicly that they will not do

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Speaker 5: that in a first five year term. Now that opens

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Speaker 5: the question as to whether they could come under pressure

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Speaker 5: if they don't achieve the highest growth in the G

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Speaker 5: seven that they've promised, a very ambitious promise that maybe

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Speaker 5: those red lines will change by the time and next

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Speaker 5: selection comes along.

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Speaker 4: Being in those things would have an almost immediate impact

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Speaker 4: on growth where it would come through in the first

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Speaker 4: term of a parliament, But just extraordinary for them to

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Speaker 4: be conceding it privately and still sticking to their political approach.

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Speaker 2: I wonder as well, you know, does the size of

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Speaker 2: Labour's majority if it does win, and if it does

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Speaker 2: win big, do you think that makes a difference on

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Speaker 2: how they would think it. Obviously at the moment in

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Speaker 2: the election, Labor doesn't want to say, oh, we could

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Speaker 2: re join the tiger mark at the Customs Unit. It

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Speaker 2: doesn't want to give any grounds and give any doubt

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Speaker 2: to voters who did vote for Brexit, or at least

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Speaker 2: Air not in the full sort of remain camp. Do

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Speaker 2: you think that a big majority could shift things the

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Speaker 2: sort of the window of conversation on EU relations further

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Speaker 2: in that direction.

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Speaker 5: Kis Dama's shadow cabinet is full of remainers. I mean,

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Speaker 5: David Lammy described Brexit as a national tragedy and a

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Speaker 5: big speech you did in Parliament after twenty twenty. But

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Speaker 5: this is the thing and this this is what actually

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Speaker 5: Jonathan Reynolds had a very good line, which was that

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Speaker 5: our foreign policy will not be dictated by the internal

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Speaker 5: party politics of the Conservative Party. And so when you say,

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Speaker 5: you know, it rows over the ECJ quite niche technical

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Speaker 5: things that the voting public mostly don't understand has been

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Speaker 5: dominating you know, Ehr. We've seen it over immigration policy recently.

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Speaker 5: Those things aren't going to be so much a problem

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Speaker 5: again if there's a big labor majority, So I think

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Speaker 5: that's definitely the case. But I do think there is

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Speaker 5: a bit of naivety to think, you know, just because

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Speaker 5: we're kind of a pro remain, pro EU party, we

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Speaker 5: can kind of get all these you know, deals done.

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Speaker 5: The EU is incredibly hard to negotiate with. It's very

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Speaker 5: distracted by its own politics and its political shift.

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Speaker 3: To the right.

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Speaker 1: I suppose the thing listening to you just then, yes,

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Speaker 1: they don't want their foreign policy to be set by

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Speaker 1: the internal wranglings of the Tory Party. But it's clear

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Speaker 1: there'll be internal wranglings of the Labor party in that

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Speaker 1: if you've got, as Alex says, two hundred seat majority,

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Speaker 1: you will have siren voices whispering in your ear saying

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Speaker 1: you can do it, you can do it, go for it.

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Speaker 1: You may not have this opportunity again, this is the

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Speaker 1: right thing to do, and we all know you can

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Speaker 1: do the ming Var's strategy. Ahead of an election, then

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Speaker 1: people will start say you don't have to grip onto

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Speaker 1: that ming Vas at all tightly or even at all

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Speaker 1: you can. You can not drop it, but you know,

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Speaker 1: to extend the metaphor you can relax. And I suspect,

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Speaker 1: but I don't know, and I don't think anybody knows.

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Speaker 1: If you have farage and reform having done right in

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Speaker 1: this in this poll, you will have that that will

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Speaker 1: be your sort of will be a fairly forceful.

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Speaker 3: Check it, Alex.

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Speaker 2: I would have thought so by the time of the

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Speaker 2: next election, looking looking at five years ahead, would he

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Speaker 2: need a political mandate from the public to start making

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Speaker 2: these big changes with the EU? I mean, could he

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Speaker 2: do them sort of in all but name without that

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Speaker 2: political mandate. You know he's going to He's going to

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Speaker 2: face big sort of pressure from the from them, from

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Speaker 2: the sort of liberal media and from his own party.

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Speaker 1: And just wanted to move on. But it's a similar territory,

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Speaker 1: which is immigration. Kis Darma's got these these policies on immigration.

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Speaker 1: He wants to negotiate with France on take backs, so

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Speaker 1: taking back some of the asylums because.

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Speaker 3: That come over.

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Speaker 1: How do you think that will work? If we have

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Speaker 1: on Sunday the beginning of the national rally doing very

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Speaker 1: well in France's parliament.

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Speaker 5: This is really interesting because while there would be Foreign Secretary,

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Speaker 5: David Lammy has done a lot of work with the

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Speaker 5: Republicans in the US and has kind of, you know,

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Speaker 5: taken this quite pragmatic approach that they could be in

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Speaker 5: government in six months time. He hasn't done that, and

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Speaker 5: Kiirs Damer hasn't done that with the EUS. So what

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Speaker 5: I've been told by labor contacts is that while Kiirs

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Speaker 5: Starmer and David Lammy have made really good relations with

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Speaker 5: ol Schultz, for example, with Lemon in Germany, France's Emanuel

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Speaker 5: mccran Salma has not established a relationship with Georgia Maloney

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Speaker 5: a tour or her team. They've not done work with

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Speaker 5: Marine le Penz party in France or the AfD in Germany.

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Speaker 5: O Left Schultz has an election next year. He looks

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Speaker 5: like he's going to lose it. Mccroon's going to stay

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Speaker 5: on most likely til twenty twenty seven. But then you

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Speaker 5: could see a shift. So you could see this position

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Speaker 5: in a Kirs Starmer administration where suddenly you're already seeing

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Speaker 5: the political wins shift in the EU, but actually the

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Speaker 5: leadership changes are kind of halfway through or before that,

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Speaker 5: which I think will really change the way that he

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Speaker 5: has relations with.

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Speaker 4: I think that they do have big hopes of working

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Speaker 4: quite closely with European center right parties on immigration. They

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Speaker 4: have sort of plans that they wouldn't be able to

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Speaker 4: do on their own basically, and they're already kind of

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Speaker 4: they anticipate that illegal migration is going to be a

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Speaker 4: massive issue. I mean, it's been a huge headache for

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Speaker 4: She's sooner act stopping the votes, but I think they

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Speaker 4: think it could get even worse into the first few

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Speaker 4: years of a labor government. And they keep talking about

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Speaker 4: like desperately hoping for the center right to win in

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Speaker 4: various elections because they don't think that they can work

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Speaker 4: with far right parties on immigration. They would just be

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Speaker 4: closed out of that.

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Speaker 3: But that is what's looking like happening. Yeah, what do

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Speaker 3: they do.

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Speaker 4: My impression is that they're still working. They still have

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Speaker 4: plans that they are hoping Macron will be in place

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Speaker 4: to help them deliver.

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Speaker 1: That's it for now, but I'm sure we will be

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Speaker 1: returning to this subject in the next few months.

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Speaker 3: Ellen Milligan, thank you very much.

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Speaker 4: Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Now onto our guest Tom Fletcher joins us in our

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Speaker 1: London studio. Tom was previously the foreign policy advisor to

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Speaker 1: three UK Prime Ministers Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron,

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Speaker 1: and then he became British Ambassador to Lebanon. He's currently

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Speaker 1: head of Hartford College, Oxford. Tom. I remember you being

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Speaker 1: certainly in your role as foreign policy advisor to Gordon Brown,

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Speaker 1: and that crazy trip was it to Gulf countries and

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Speaker 1: then to Auschwitz within a day.

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Speaker 6: We did a lot of crazy trips together, I think,

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Speaker 6: and normally I would be the person that had to

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Speaker 6: come back on the plane and basically brate all the

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Speaker 6: press corps for whatever story you'd written about us all.

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Speaker 6: But I think that day, yeah, we were coming back

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Speaker 6: out of Afghanistan. We had a very grueling trip to Afghanistan,

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Speaker 6: see Karzai. Just got out in time, late at night.

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Speaker 6: Otherwise the plane, the C one thirty was going to

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Speaker 6: be grounded in Carbull and we'd all have stayed in

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Speaker 6: carbell overnight. Got out I think by Oman, and then

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Speaker 6: on to Auschwitzer the next day and then into big

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Speaker 6: talks with Donald Tusk, who's now back of course in Poland.

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Speaker 6: So that was just a normal day in Number ten

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Speaker 6: in those days, I.

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Speaker 3: Don't think so.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they do trips were crying quite that

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Speaker 1: much in now so Gordon.

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Speaker 6: You know, Gordon's shuttle diplomacy was lots of shuttle, and

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Speaker 6: then I was to do the diplomacy.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 6: They once mistranslated my job title in China, which was

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Speaker 6: the Private Secretary for Foreign Affairs to the Prime Minister,

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Speaker 6: and it got mistranslated as the intimate typist, but it

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Speaker 6: was them the intimate typist for the Prime Minister's affairs overseas,

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Speaker 6: which of course in English means something completely different. But

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Speaker 6: in reality I didn't organize any prime minister's affairs overseas.

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Speaker 6: It was just but I was a kind of bad carrier,

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Speaker 6: policy maker, speech writer and all the rest.

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Speaker 3: Okay.

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Speaker 1: So just so, looking at the kind of strategic comparatives

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Speaker 1: for possibly Prime Minister kissed Armer, what do you think

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Speaker 1: are the three things he will be wanting to sort.

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Speaker 6: I mean, he faces the fullest diary of state craft

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Speaker 6: of any prime minister I think for their first month

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Speaker 6: in office since Churchill. That's quite a big claim. But

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Speaker 6: that NATO summit within days of taking office and then

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Speaker 6: that first meeting with Biden, they are enormously consequential for

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Speaker 6: so many of these issues NATO, Ukraine, for what happens

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Speaker 6: next on the Middle East, And of course in the

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Speaker 6: background there you've got the specter of the Orange, specter

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Speaker 6: of Donald Trump waiting in the wings as well. So

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Speaker 6: I think that set of issues is a massive, massive challenge.

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Speaker 6: What next for NATO? You know what next for UK defense?

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Speaker 6: How are we going to reimagine the threats that actually

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Speaker 6: are coming in our direction and prepare for those. Then

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Speaker 6: I think you've got a really, really tough summer on

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Speaker 6: the Middle East. We may be coming to the end

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Speaker 6: of this phase in Gaza, and it's been a pretty

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Speaker 6: sickening eight nine months to work through. I have great

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Speaker 6: fears that the wall now move north to my old

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Speaker 6: stomping ground of Lebanon, and that we may see a

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Speaker 6: similar military action there, which would dominate the summer and

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Speaker 6: present some massive challenges to an incoming government. But then,

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Speaker 6: I mean, can I have four? I mean, because Europe

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Speaker 6: is also massive, and I think this is redefining. Some

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Speaker 6: of that will be about body language and tone of

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Speaker 6: our relationship with Europe, particularly on the security side. And

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Speaker 6: then the danger will be that, look, these first thirty

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Speaker 6: days will be so defining but the danger will be

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Speaker 6: taking tactical decisions that then influence long term strategy. And

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Speaker 6: nowhere is that more the case than on China. If

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Speaker 6: you could almost work back from the end of this term,

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Speaker 6: maybe the end of two terms as Prime minister, and

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Speaker 6: think what is the overall tone of that relationship with

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Speaker 6: China and how do we get kind of early decisions

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Speaker 6: right to reflect that overall strategy.

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Speaker 2: As you say, pretty early decision he's going to have

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Speaker 2: to make is defense spending, and the Conservatives who've committed

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Speaker 2: to two point five by twenty thirty, and Labor obviously

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Speaker 2: hasn't committed to that yet, and he's got the NATO

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Speaker 2: summit days after coming in. Do you think Labor's position

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Speaker 2: can hold on in terms of two point five whenever

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Speaker 2: we can, which is basically their current position, or will

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Speaker 2: will they come under pressure from Biden or other allies

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Speaker 2: to really firm up their policy on that.

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Speaker 6: I think there will be pressure there, but I also

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Speaker 6: think they can hold off. A lot of expectations around

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Speaker 6: that summit will be that they're talking to a grown

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Speaker 6: up who's going to be there for eight years, and

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Speaker 6: the body language and the tone will be as important

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Speaker 6: as what they announce, it will be this sense that

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Speaker 6: you have a prime minister there who is going to

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Speaker 6: be engaged. He's going to build the relationships, he's going

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Speaker 6: to work on these practical issues. So I think they'll

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Speaker 6: give him some time. There won't be an expectation that

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Speaker 6: everything happens immediately. You know, I mentioned how difficult the

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Speaker 6: calendar is for those thirty days, but that's also an

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Speaker 6: opportunity because you can do a lot of that stake craft,

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Speaker 6: a lot of that relationship building, and try to hold

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Speaker 6: off some of those big long term strategic decisions. That

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Speaker 6: would be my advice to them.

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Speaker 4: And he'll be hosting, of course, all the European leaders

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Speaker 4: at blenh And Palace was in a few weeks of

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Speaker 4: becoming Prime minister as well. If you were advising him

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Speaker 4: high should he approach that sort of initial speed to

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Speaker 4: it with all these quick bilasterals with those European leaders.

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Speaker 6: Well, you've made it sound much more fun than it

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Speaker 6: will really be. Speed dating is one way of putting it.

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Speaker 6: It's pretty crueling. I mean, there's no room for error.

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Speaker 6: And of course the media, as you know, we used

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Speaker 6: to always talk about on the plane on the way back.

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Speaker 6: Normally from these visits immediately waiting for any sign that

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Speaker 6: you know of incompetence or failure or gap. The first

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Speaker 6: few months when I worked for David Cameron, the media,

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Speaker 6: we're just waiting, hanging on his every word for him

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Speaker 6: to get something wrong. And these are kind of complex briefs,

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Speaker 6: and in the midst of it all you're trying to

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Speaker 6: build that relationship with these other leaders, and so much

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Speaker 6: of that is it's actually about the theater of it.

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Speaker 6: And in the midst of that, many of those European

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Speaker 6: leaders are also in a state of flux as well.

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Speaker 6: Macronlemal delay and you know the Germans that so all

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Speaker 6: of that it's like a sort of multi dimensional game

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Speaker 6: of chess. Now he'll have brilliant people around him who

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Speaker 6: will have prepared those enormous stacks of briefing, but it

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Speaker 6: would be somebody's job to basically say to him before

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Speaker 6: every meeting, as I used to have to do with

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Speaker 6: with with Gordon and then with David Cameron, well you know,

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Speaker 6: here are the three things that you've got to remember

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Speaker 6: in this meeting. That's three things to get right, and

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Speaker 6: here are the three things that you're going to be

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Speaker 6: hit by from the other side.

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Speaker 1: You've painted the opportunities for Starmer, but there are problems

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Speaker 1: and there are sort of limits to his maneuverability. Let's

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Speaker 1: just sort of chunk them up. We've heard from Ellen

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Speaker 1: Melogan earlier about restrictions to his ability on Europe and

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Speaker 1: what he might do to make Brexit work better for

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Speaker 1: the UK. What's your analysis of where that ends up.

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Speaker 6: That will take time and shouldn't be rushed. My advice

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Speaker 6: to them would be to try and get a sort

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Speaker 6: of heavyweight character in there. You know, there are lots

439
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 6: of these big figures from previous labor. I think they've

440
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 6: got a great ambassador on the ground already. I'm I'm

441
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 6: not suggesting, I'm not trying to fire task force. I

442
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 6: mean having someone who really owns that dossier and is

443
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,359
Speaker 6: working at twenty four to seven to work out where

444
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 6: the opportunities will be to rebuild that relationship in very practical,

445
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 6: tangible ways. I think the low hanging fruit in all

446
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 6: of that is on security and defense, where it's clearly

447
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 6: in the interests of the Europeans that we're working more

448
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 6: closely together. And I believe, and more importantly, our defense

449
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 6: people believe that it's very much in our interests that

450
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 6: we align more clearly in response to these threats from

451
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 6: Russia inside Europe, from new weapons from cyber Ai. You know,

452
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 6: there are lots and lots of reasons why we need

453
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 6: that alignment, and so it feels like that's an early

454
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 6: prize for an incoming Labor administration, but also for the

455
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:28,680
Speaker 6: Europeans as well.

456
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 4: Tom, do you have someone in mind when you're saying

457
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:34,360
Speaker 4: you need someone to really own that brief, because.

458
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 6: Definitely I've got my hands for.

459
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,119
Speaker 4: We were talking about this earlier. David miller Band former

460
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 4: of course Labor Foreign Secretary now in America leading a

461
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 4: big NGO. He gave a very interesting speech at the

462
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 4: Irish Embassy within the past couple of months on the

463
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 4: UK's relationship with the EU and the US. It looked

464
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 4: like he was sort of making a pitch for David

465
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,239
Speaker 4: Lammy's job or the US and sit a role, but

466
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 4: we hit the real focus was on the UK and EU.

467
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,400
Speaker 4: Do you think that's that's something for him.

468
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 6: I wouldn't know. And we're never very good at using

469
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 6: our kind of former big figures in the UK. And

470
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 6: it's a cross party problem and it's a whitehall problem.

471
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,199
Speaker 6: As well. We tend to assume that once someone has

472
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 6: left office, they're sort of no longer on the bench.

473
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 6: For us. You've got great people cross party. David Cameron's

474
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,360
Speaker 6: one of them, for example. I don't know whether he'll

475
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 6: be sat standing by the phone after the election waiting

476
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 6: for a call, but you know, using that expertise and

477
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 6: that heft and that those networks that he's built up.

478
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 6: David Millervan is obviously a massive heavyweight. Knows the UN

479
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 6: inside out, knows the Americans, particularly the Democrats, very well.

480
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 1: It's very surprising if you didn't have some kind of role,

481
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: wouldn't it I'm not my observation.

482
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 6: Would seem a waste. It seem would seem a waste

483
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 6: not to have. You know, some of your star strikers

484
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,959
Speaker 6: on the pitch. I'd add into the mix. Kathy Ashton,

485
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 6: former EU High Rep. You know, real pro, amazing behind

486
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 6: the scenes negotiator, massive credibility in Washington and in Europe,

487
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:06,199
Speaker 6: and really good networks. Valerie Amos who ran at the

488
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 6: UN Coordinated Humanitarian Affairs, you know, another massive heavyweight in

489
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 6: the UN system. So you've got always big names out there.

490
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:15,399
Speaker 6: I'm now going to get Ino trouble with all the people,

491
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 6: haven't You haven't mentioned. But we should get better. We

492
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 6: should be bigger as a government and better at bringing

493
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 6: those voices into the conversation.

494
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 1: But one of the problems he will have is whatever

495
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,879
Speaker 1: the shape of the French Parliament is in the next

496
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, what do you think will be the

497
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 1: impact of a move to the right in the French

498
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 1: Parliament on a starmer policy platform.

499
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 6: I mean, I think it will make his europeanislckats very jumpy,

500
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 6: very edgy. That you know, they're not talking about the

501
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 6: UK election. When you go to Paris or Berlin or Brussels,

502
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 6: the conversation is all about France at the moment, and

503
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,320
Speaker 6: and about that wider right wood shift in Europe. It's

504
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,200
Speaker 6: strange to think after the last you know, let's say

505
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 6: decade or so, where the UK has often resembled this

506
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 6: kind of circular firing squad and everyone's been looking in

507
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 6: at us and saying, can you stop exporting problems and

508
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 6: start exporting solutions again? It'd be strange to think that

509
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 6: at the end of this year, depending on what happens

510
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 6: in the States, the Brits could be one of the

511
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 6: real grown ups in the room again one of the

512
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 6: forces of stability and calm in that conversation. But it

513
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 6: will definitely influence how much attention those Europeans are able

514
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 6: to spend on the practical things, because they will be

515
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:27,919
Speaker 6: very jittery.

516
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,439
Speaker 1: Let's move on to Gaza in the Middle East. You

517
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: said at the beginning of the conversation you thought, actually

518
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 1: the summer could bring things even more to a head,

519
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,160
Speaker 1: and it might bring in your old stomping ground of Lebanon,

520
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 1: Alverat and alex report a lot on the balance within

521
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 1: the Labor Party of opinion wanting Starma to be tougher

522
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: on Israel and so on, possible even discussions of an

523
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 1: arms embargo. How does that play for Starma? Is there

524
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 1: a clear role for him to lead that in the

525
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 1: international community or will he have to rein that in.

526
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,160
Speaker 6: I think all these issues look very different the moment

527
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 6: you're on the other side of the black door as well,

528
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,879
Speaker 6: that moment when you know you assume the role of

529
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 6: Prime Minister and the phone calls start coming in. You know,

530
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 6: as David Cameron walked through that door, I pretty much

531
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 6: handed in the phone and said President at Arma's on

532
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 6: the line. And here's what you need to say, so

533
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 6: it will feel and look different to the team when

534
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 6: they're in there. I think that they clearly have an

535
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 6: early decision to make on whether to recognize the state

536
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 6: of Palestine, and that will be one way of showing

537
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,160
Speaker 6: that they can do things slightly different. I think they'll

538
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 6: have an early decision on whether to resume funding to UNRAH,

539
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 6: the Refugee and Works Agency for the Palestinians, which will

540
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 6: certainly be something the Foreign Office and other bits of

541
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 6: government will be saying, you know, we've got to get

542
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 6: back in there and start to rebuild, start to support civilians.

543
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,679
Speaker 6: So perhaps those decisions come sooner than decisions on in

544
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 6: arms embargo, for example. They've got to basically think about

545
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 6: how do we get the narrative back to the two

546
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 6: states solution, how do we get it back onto the

547
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 6: big prize here, which is normalization of relations between Israel

548
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 6: and the wider region that includes a Palestine and state.

549
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 6: You know, that's the big conversation if you're looking five

550
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 6: ten years ahead. And so they've got to be careful

551
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 6: not to make those sort of tactical misjudgments that might

552
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:12,159
Speaker 6: undermine that strategic objective and then as I say, you

553
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 6: know this real fear I have that we could through

554
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 6: the summer be into a different phase of conflict. You know,

555
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 6: Israel and Hesbela already at war. More Hebela fighters have

556
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 6: died since October the seventh than in the whole two

557
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,479
Speaker 6: thousand and six conflict. More rockets have been fired by

558
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 6: Hisbellah on Israeli towns than in that whole conflict. It's

559
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 6: not as bad as it can be, and I fear

560
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 6: it will get much worse. But that will probably be

561
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 6: the big issue that dominates the first summer of Labor

562
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 6: foreign policy.

563
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 2: On the arms in bargo for Israel. Possibly David Lammy's

564
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 2: scrutiny of David cameron over the last few months has

565
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,679
Speaker 2: left Labor in a position where they are essentially in

566
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 2: favor of stopping arms to Israel in all but name.

567
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 2: You know that everything that they say about why has

568
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 2: the government not published legal advice going back months in

569
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 2: terms of what Israel's been up to in cars? Is

570
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 2: it possible for Labor to wrote back from that position.

571
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 6: When you look at the statements David Lammy has made

572
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:10,919
Speaker 6: a shadow Foreign secretary, but also look at Kirstarmer's background

573
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 6: in international human rights law, it's very difficult for them

574
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 6: not to be in a position where they're backing up

575
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:20,959
Speaker 6: the rule of law, and so I suspect, and you know,

576
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 6: my advice to them would be that they should they

577
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 6: should get in there and see what that legal advice is.

578
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 6: And I think at that point that the decisions that

579
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,719
Speaker 6: they have to take will become very very clear. I

580
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 6: don't know them well enough to know how they take decisions,

581
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 6: but I suspect, having observed them from distance, that they're

582
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 6: probably quite methodical, quite practical about it, and quite loyally

583
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 6: in it all. So I imagine they they'll get in there

584
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 6: with their own legal advisors and take their view, and

585
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 6: that could lead to a different policy outcome in the end,

586
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 6: But it depends what's in that advice.

587
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 4: Tom. It's so interesting from hearing you speak, it's as

588
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 4: though you expect David Lammie and the Labor administration to

589
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 4: sort of be a bit more muscular, to take a

590
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 4: bit more of a lead on those kinds of questions

591
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,479
Speaker 4: and make up their own minds on it. When I've

592
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 4: been speaking to them privately over the past few months,

593
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 4: it has felt with a lot of the things on

594
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,239
Speaker 4: Gaza that they've just been very careful to track what

595
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 4: the Americans are doing. So I'm wondering, how will those

596
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 4: conversations with the US go about the UK potentially wanting

597
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 4: to recognize Palestine and those kinds of things, How would

598
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 4: that affect the US relationship.

599
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 6: It will be on that list of on that first

600
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 6: agenda for that first contact with Biden in July, for

601
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 6: that first phone call. Probably I imagine Biden would put down

602
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 6: a marker on that call that he looks forward to

603
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 6: discussing Ukraine, NATO, and the Middle East and probably China.

604
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 6: Those will be the three things. I think the Americans

605
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 6: will just want to register that level of interest and

606
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 6: concern on early on to signal that when they actually

607
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 6: do then sit down and you know, a few days

608
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 6: later in Washington, that they'll be there serious pressure from

609
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 6: the Americans or all three. Ukraine LATO is top of

610
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 6: that list, actually above above the Middle East. I think

611
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 6: the American administration at the moment is trying to exert

612
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 6: a lot of pressure on Israel behind the scenes to

613
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 6: restrain them from a full scale invasion of Lebanon and

614
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 6: to try and try and get them to change the

615
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 6: conduct of the war in Gaza. Now there may be

616
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 6: a public line therefore with pressure on the UK not

617
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 6: to be more creative and muscular as you describe then,

618
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 6: but I wonder whether in private whether there will be

619
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 6: so tough with the UK. Maybe they'll think it's in

620
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 6: their interest to have the UK slightly outriding a bit

621
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 6: to remind Israel that it's not as straightforward as they

622
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 6: think it is.

623
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 1: Currently the US administration is when you can see the

624
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 1: star mutee working very comfortably with If there's a change

625
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 1: in November to Trump, we've heard of this David Lammy

626
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 1: idea of progressive realism that's going to see them work

627
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 1: we think very comfortably with Trump.

628
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 3: How credible is that?

629
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 6: I think Trump in his first term did a huge

630
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 6: amount to prove his critics right. He vandalized the alliances

631
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 6: on which we rely, He vandalized the institutions like NATO

632
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 6: and the UN that are such a key part of

633
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 6: UK strategic interests. And of course he vandalized the values

634
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 6: that we share with the Americans, with the Europeans and

635
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 6: with others. And I worry that the Trump two point

636
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 6: zero would be even more erratic, would crash around even

637
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 6: more and do even more damage to our interests. Now,

638
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 6: let's see, maybe I'll be proven wrong, but I think

639
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 6: most diplomats would share that fear as to what we

640
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 6: might face after November if somehow the American people elect him. Now,

641
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 6: what does that mean for Prime Minister Starmer and a

642
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 6: Foreign Secretary Lammy. It will mean that they do have

643
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 6: to kind of pull their punchers a bit in the

644
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 6: next few months, that they do have to hold off

645
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 6: in case Trump is elected, because if he is, they'll

646
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 6: need to find a way to build a pragmatic relationship.

647
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 6: You know, where can we exert influence, How can we

648
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 6: build a relationship where we can actually limit the damage

649
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 6: that he will do? And that will mean holding back

650
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 6: on some of the temptation to go for strong rhetoric

651
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 6: and to think fairly pessimistically about what the minimum we

652
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 6: can come out of the next four or five years

653
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 6: with is Perhaps.

654
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 2: The most immediate sort of danger for Trump presidency is

655
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 2: to Ukraine. And you know, if Trump was to change

656
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 2: America's position on Ukraine towards negotiations towards you know, seeding territory,

657
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 2: do you think Starmer is he able to counter that?

658
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 2: Is he able to lobby Trump against moving America's position

659
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 2: or is that just a no Hoper stance. Can Britain

660
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 2: have its own position or does it have to follow

661
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 2: America's position on Ukraine?

662
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 6: It doesn't have to follow a Trump position on Ukraine.

663
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 6: Particularly if Trump was basically fold in the cards and

664
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 6: just saying pego putin, you win, which is what that

665
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 6: would be. It would be a capitulation to putin. I

666
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 6: think this is one of those areas where if progress

667
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 6: is made at the European Political Council in July late

668
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 6: July in Blenham and building up those relationships, in making

669
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 6: that a more load bearing conversation with the Europeans on

670
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 6: our security, then you could see a clearer European position

671
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 6: in opposition to Trump on that. Now, whether that actually

672
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 6: can exercise much influence on him, I'm not sure. We

673
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 6: all overestimated the influence that we could have on Trump

674
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 6: first time round, you know, sticking him in a gold

675
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 6: carriage on the mall and so on. We all like

676
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 6: to think that we are so persuasive, and I've seen

677
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 6: some Prime ministers feel this way as well, that with

678
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,239
Speaker 6: such brilliant, influential, persuasive characters, that we can bring these

679
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 6: hard liners around. There's no evidence from Trump in the

680
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 6: first term that suggests that we can do that, just

681
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 6: as there hasn't been much evidence that we could do

682
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 6: it with bib nettin Nia who over the last nine months.

683
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 1: I mean, there's one hundred more questions, but I think

684
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: in terms of time, we probably want to run a

685
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,719
Speaker 1: lot of that. So that's a great place to leave

686
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:08,399
Speaker 1: it for now. Tom, Will you come back and join

687
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,399
Speaker 1: us in the months ahead these events are real rather

688
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:12,280
Speaker 1: than in prospect.

689
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, I feel we'll be talking about foreign policy a

690
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 6: lot over the next three months.

691
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:17,919
Speaker 3: Tom Fletcher, thank you very much.

692
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 6: Thank you.

693
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:29,280
Speaker 1: It's interesting to hear him be unequivocally concerned about Trump ather.

694
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,360
Speaker 4: Yees striking, isn't it? Because I suppose some people have

695
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 4: maybe made their peace with it or just thinking even

696
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 4: I think privately lots of labor people just sort of

697
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 4: thinking that that's a bridge they may likely have to cross,

698
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 4: and so they're just already thinking about it. It's interesting

699
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 4: to just have another voice to spell it again, the

700
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:48,359
Speaker 4: mass of concerns around that.

701
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 2: I thought it was really interesting him sort of saying

702
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 2: that there's almost a naivety among European politicians who think

703
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 2: they can go over and diplomatically make their case to

704
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 2: Trump world. Boris Johnson, we've s and make the argument

705
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 2: to Donald Trump on in favor of continue to support

706
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 2: for Ukraine. It is very unclear whether that has made

707
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 2: any difference.

708
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 4: I was trying to imagine it. It's hard just with

709
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 4: the personalities to imagine Starmer and Trump Gelling.

710
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 1: I think I think reporters, you guys are going to

711
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 1: have a lot of fun at the first Trump Starmer

712
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: press conference where you've got the former Director of Prosecutions

713
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 1: up of the UK alongside someone who's been convicted of

714
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:30,280
Speaker 1: fifty four crimes.

715
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 2: You could barely imagine two more different people. Everything that

716
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:39,840
Speaker 2: Kirs Starmer sets is about public service and restoring priberty

717
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 2: in public life and all of this stuff. I think

718
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:44,879
Speaker 2: we're pretty pretty clear on how much contempt to Kis

719
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 2: Starma had for Boris Johnson. Well, Donald Trump's a different.

720
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 1: Level against all of that. I think the thing I

721
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 1: have observed in recent years is that you can have

722
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 1: unlikely alliances. They can be more powerful because of it,

723
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 1: and if their agendas in any way coalesce or a line,

724
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:03,760
Speaker 1: then then we have seen.

725
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 2: It, Yeah, and it is important to say that we

726
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 2: don't for certain know what Trump's going to do. One

727
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:13,319
Speaker 2: things like Ukraine optimists in the West clearly see a

728
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,839
Speaker 2: world where Trump thinks there's political opportunity for him to

729
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:22,280
Speaker 2: continue to support Ukraine militarily and to show America is stronger,

730
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 2: and you show progress in the way that Biden has

731
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 2: unable to be unable to on the on the battlefield.

732
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 2: So you know, it's not it's not a complete no hoper,

733
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:32,320
Speaker 2: but certainly difficult.

734
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,279
Speaker 4: I also thought that one of Tom's first comments that

735
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 4: we need to get him back on to discuss in

736
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 4: more detail maybe is saying about how Labour needs to

737
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 4: work backwards in terms of where it wants its relationship

738
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 4: with China to be at the end of one parliament

739
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:50,080
Speaker 4: or two parliaments. That's clearly the sort of big strategic difficulty.

740
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 4: There are lots of sort of industrial and geopolitical questions

741
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 4: that Labour's going to have to tackle that everyone's already

742
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 4: talking about privately. So I think that's going to be

743
00:36:58,200 --> 00:36:59,240
Speaker 4: really interesting.

744
00:36:58,920 --> 00:36:59,879
Speaker 3: Until we see you next.

745
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Alva Ray and Alex Wickham, thanks

746
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 1: for listening to this week's vot Nomics from Bloomberg. This

747
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 1: episode was hosted by me alegra Stratton with Alex Wickham

748
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,400
Speaker 1: and Alva Ray. It was produced by Somersadi with bookly

749
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:19,359
Speaker 1: support from Chris Martin, production support and sound design by

750
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 1: Moses and am Brendan Francis Newnham is our executive producer.

751
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 1: Sage Bauman is Head of Podcasts and special thanks to

752
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 1: Tom Fletcher and Ellen Milligan. Please subscribe, rate, and review

753
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 1: wherever you listen to podcasts