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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rouno with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Balance of Power here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite radio, and on YouTube,

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Speaker 2: where you can find us right now by searching Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Business News Live. And just like that you'll find our

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Speaker 2: live feed here that actually runs all day from New

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Speaker 2: York to Washington, DC and everything in between, all the

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Speaker 2: shows you hear on the radio or on YouTube. And

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Speaker 2: we invite you as always to join us here in

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Speaker 2: the studio. Big News on CPI Day. That's where we start.

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Speaker 2: And boy, the overlap with politics seems to be getting

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Speaker 2: heavier by the minute. Keep in mind today Donald Trump's

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Speaker 2: going to roll out his economic plan least as billed

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Speaker 2: by the campaign on Friday. Kamala Harris is going to

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Speaker 2: do the same thing on the eve of the Democratic

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Speaker 2: National Convention. Where are we on taxes? Where are we

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Speaker 2: on so many questions, including an approach to the Federal Reserve,

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Speaker 2: and of course the almighty cost of goods. Is there

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Speaker 2: any sunlight between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden. We'll find out,

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Speaker 2: I guess Friday. And the fact is, maybe it doesn't

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Speaker 2: matter because the news keeps looking pretty good, at least

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Speaker 2: if you're looking for the opportunity, maybe between now and November,

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Speaker 2: to declare victory in the fight over inflation. Stuart Paul

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Speaker 2: must be getting excited listening to this. He's with us

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Speaker 2: right now on the CPI Day Live from New York,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Economics US economists. Great to see, is Stuart. The

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Speaker 2: headline pretty encouraging if your name is Kamala Harris. Core

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Speaker 2: inflation ease is a fourth month sealing a FED rate cut?

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Speaker 2: What else do we need to know?

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Speaker 3: It was a pretty good report for the Fed. Headline

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Speaker 3: inflation came in just a touch lower than folks expected.

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Speaker 3: That allowed annual inflation to cool to two point nine

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Speaker 3: percent from three percent. As you said, that's definitely good

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Speaker 3: news for Kamala Harris, who is being painted largely with

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Speaker 3: the same brush in terms of attribution of economic outcomes

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Speaker 3: as President Biden has been painted with. Within the CPI

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Speaker 3: report and One of the reasons why this is good

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Speaker 3: news for the FED. A lot of the things that

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Speaker 3: people finance and the things that have prices that are

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Speaker 3: very much so directly affected by FED policy, things like cars,

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Speaker 3: things like appliances and televisions, all of those are seeing

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Speaker 3: price declines. Where there still are inflationary pressures are in

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Speaker 3: a lot of the categories that the FED can't entirely control,

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Speaker 3: or at least not very directly. So still seeing a

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Speaker 3: lot of inflation. Pressures in rents and home prices do

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Speaker 3: in large parts to a decade of underbuilding. The Biden

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Speaker 3: administration is trying to combat that, issuing an one hundred

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Speaker 3: million dollar grant to support new home construction. That is

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Speaker 3: just a drop in the bucket when we think about

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Speaker 3: forty six trillion dollars in residential real estate wealth in

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Speaker 3: the country. But again, it's home price pressures and pressures

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Speaker 3: in rent that's supporting inflation. Also seeing a lot of

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Speaker 3: inflation in auto insurance, and you could end up seeing

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Speaker 3: that attributed to corporate greed out on the campaign trail.

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Speaker 3: That's a common refrain that we've heard from Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 3: But this is really a large, largely a story of

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Speaker 3: catch up inflation. We saw the run up in auto

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Speaker 3: prices when cars were in short supply during the pandemic.

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Speaker 3: When the replacement cost of autos gets higher, so to

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Speaker 3: will insurance premiums. That's a lot of what's booing inflation

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Speaker 3: right now auto insurance.

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Speaker 2: This is really interesting, and I'm glad that you pointed out, Stewart,

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Speaker 2: the matter of shelter costs, because even if this economy

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Speaker 2: is going into a slowdown, that doesn't seem to be

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Speaker 2: impacting what we're paying to live. And it's interesting the

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Speaker 2: jump in shelter, the largest category within services, didn't matter

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Speaker 2: if you were talking about ownership or rent. Am I

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Speaker 2: reading that right. Both are up four tenths after going

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Speaker 2: up in June. Here, this is going to be very

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Speaker 2: difficult for anybody running for office to get to that's right.

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Speaker 3: The thing that folks need to keep in mind is

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Speaker 3: that mortgage rates were brought down below three percent when

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Speaker 3: the Fed cut rates down to the bone following the

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Speaker 3: onset of the COVID nineteen pandemic. When everybody refinanced their mortgage,

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Speaker 3: it now makes it basically prohibitively expensive for them to

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Speaker 3: list their homes in moves. So again, right, homes are

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Speaker 3: at supply exactly, so homes are still in short supply,

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Speaker 3: and so we're still seeing those pressures on both home

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Speaker 3: ownership costs and on rents. And again, politicians can try

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Speaker 3: to combat that as best as they can, but it's

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Speaker 3: going to be difficult after a decade of underbuilding.

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Speaker 2: We got a statement from the White House today and

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Speaker 2: you can almost just I mean, don't even look down.

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Speaker 2: Just tell me what you think it says, because that

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Speaker 2: second paragraph starts the same way every month. It doesn't

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Speaker 2: seem to matter how good the news is. Prices are

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Speaker 2: still too high. Period. This is a White House that

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Speaker 2: is desperate to not be caught in the act of celebrating.

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Speaker 2: Could that change between now and the election? I mean,

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Speaker 2: we're noting in the statement inflation has fallen below three

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Speaker 2: percent core inflation, lowest level since April twenty one. When

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Speaker 2: can this White House, or god forbid, Kamala Harris say

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Speaker 2: we made it.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be really tough. It's going to be a

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Speaker 3: really tough to declare victory while at the same time

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Speaker 3: recognizing that over the past four years, overall prices have

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Speaker 3: increased over twenty percent, so the purchasing power of the

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Speaker 3: cash that folks have had in their savings account is

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Speaker 3: now reduced by a fifth relative to where they were

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Speaker 3: when the Biden administration took office. It's not the administration's

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Speaker 3: fault solely, of course. Again, rates were cut to the bone.

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Speaker 3: We had stimulus and multiple rounds of direct checks distributed

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Speaker 3: under both Trump and and we had tax reform under Trump.

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Speaker 3: This isn't a Biden this isn't a consequence solely of

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Speaker 3: Biden era policies. But it did take place on his watch.

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Speaker 3: And if you were to just simply use, say the

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Speaker 3: ray Fair model of predicting election outcomes, Kamala Harris would

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Speaker 3: end up with just about a forty eight forty nine

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Speaker 3: percent share of the two party poll. I'm interested to

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Speaker 3: hear what we're gonna hear in the next segment about

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Speaker 3: her polling in Florida, but and just how much she's

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Speaker 3: going to bear that burden of responsibility for economic outcomes.

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Speaker 3: But it would be a little bit tone deaf to

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Speaker 3: say that that victory has been achieved in the fight

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Speaker 3: against inflation.

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Speaker 2: I think I've succeeded in turning Stuart Paul into a

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Speaker 2: political analyst. What do you think, Bloomberg Economics US economist

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Speaker 2: Stuart Great to see you and thank you on a

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Speaker 2: CPI day. This is important stuff and we're gonna, yes,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna move right into retail sales later this week.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna be more data points, certainly before we get

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Speaker 2: to Jackson Hole in a FED meeting in September. But

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Speaker 2: the trajectory appears to be in place here, underscoring the

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Speaker 2: argument for a cut in September just more a question

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Speaker 2: of how big it's going to be. Keeping tabs on

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Speaker 2: the trail here, we've been talking about this through the

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Speaker 2: eyes of the campaign. Donald Trump will be fleshing out

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Speaker 2: his economic plans four PM Ashville, North Carolina, and we'll

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Speaker 2: of course let you know on the late edition of

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Speaker 2: Balance of Power what he's talking about here, essentially preempting

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Speaker 2: we're trying to Kamala Harris's big speech on Friday. They're

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Speaker 2: both doing it North Carolina. She's going to be in

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Speaker 2: Raleigh with her economic proposals today though she's often running

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Speaker 2: with Joe Biden, and you know they're going to be

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Speaker 2: talking about the cost of goods inflation. This keeps coming up.

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Speaker 2: It's the number one issue what are your plans for

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Speaker 2: the economy as we face a slow down here in

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Speaker 2: a world of interest rate cuts instead of hikes. Bringing

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Speaker 2: us to the swing state of Florida with a smirk,

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Speaker 2: is David Paleologos. It's been some time since we've had

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Speaker 2: a chance to talk with the man behind the Suffolk

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Speaker 2: University Political Research Center, and everybody's talking about you, David

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Speaker 2: this week because of this Florida poll that you guys

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Speaker 2: put up, making us all wonder what the heck is

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Speaker 2: this map actually going to look like once the race

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Speaker 2: settles here coming out of Chicago, Welcome back to Bloomberg, David.

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Speaker 2: It's good to have you. I don't want to just

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Speaker 2: dwell completely on Florida, but that is why you're in

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Speaker 2: the news this week, and I just wonder as you

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Speaker 2: hear the conversation we're coming out of here on the economy.

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Speaker 2: Trump speaks today Kamala Harris on Friday. How important are

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Speaker 2: these economic plans going to be for getting to folks

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Speaker 2: who haven't made up their mind yet.

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Speaker 4: Well, the timing is really interesting, you know. In the poll,

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Speaker 4: we looked at people who said the economy or inflation

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Speaker 4: was the number one issue, and in Florida. Trump was

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Speaker 4: beating Harris just among those voters by thirty points, sixty

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Speaker 4: to thirty in Florida, and I'm in immigration voters who

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Speaker 4: say immigration is the most important issue.

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Speaker 5: Trump was winning eighty six to six.

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Speaker 4: So Kamala Harris has drawn a lot of criticism for

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Speaker 4: not doing Q and A and press availability. But I

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Speaker 4: think what's going on is, since you got the nomination,

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Speaker 4: she's she's doing research to figure out what her plan

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Speaker 4: is going to be separate from Joe Biden and how

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Speaker 4: she can sort of couch that difference and thread the needle.

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Speaker 2: Interesting. I had a conversation with Democratic polsters Selinda Lake.

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Speaker 2: I always picture you guys in your own special club here.

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Speaker 2: You must have a secret handshake or something, And she

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Speaker 2: was talking about this idea of Kamala Harris making Florida viable,

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Speaker 2: making it competitive. David, Here's what she said.

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Speaker 6: Sara's campaign is very disciplined. We stay focused on the

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Speaker 6: battleground state. Trying to go into Florida, it's like trying

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Speaker 6: to go into Western Europe. It's so many media markets,

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Speaker 6: it's so expensive. This is a team that will keep

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Speaker 6: their eye on the prize. We have our seven battleground states.

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Speaker 6: We're going to win those states and we're going to concentrate.

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Speaker 2: On So, David, tell us what you are learning in

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Speaker 2: the Sunshine State here and how much attention we should

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Speaker 2: be paying to states like Florida that aren't part of

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Speaker 2: the swing states that most polls are focused on.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so what we've picked up.

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Speaker 4: And this poll was on in August seventh to the eleventh,

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Speaker 4: so it's pretty the ink is still pretty dry on

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Speaker 4: this one. Is you know it's closer, Like going into

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Speaker 4: this poll, like you have to separate yourself from being

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Speaker 4: a poster and just a voter. I was looking at

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Speaker 4: this not thinking it was going to be a close

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Speaker 4: race for a bunch of different reasons. Florida has purged

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Speaker 4: a million Democratic voters since twenty twenty off the rolls,

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Speaker 4: such that the active vote account is plus one million

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Speaker 4: for Republicans. So I didn't really expect it to be close.

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Speaker 5: But it is.

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Speaker 4: And the reason it is is because Kamala Harris has

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Speaker 4: opened up a twelve point lead among women and to

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Speaker 4: kind of offset the twenty four point lead among men

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Speaker 4: that Trump has and she's winning independent, so she still

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Speaker 4: has a long way to go. There's only three percent undecided,

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Speaker 4: So a five point lead for Trump in Florida looks

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Speaker 4: pretty solid.

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Speaker 5: And then it opens up the whole.

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Speaker 4: Question of RFK, who's got the biggest block of votes

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Speaker 4: after you know, Trump and Harris at five percent, and

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Speaker 4: I don't think he's going to end up with five percent.

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Speaker 4: So the question is where those voters are going to

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Speaker 4: roll to.

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Speaker 2: Well, you just said a lot, and I want to

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Speaker 2: unpack some of this five point difference here in Florida.

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Speaker 2: That in itself is news. I think we can argue,

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Speaker 2: and you do have a four point four percent margin

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Speaker 2: of error, just to give you a sense of what

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Speaker 2: that actually looks like. Here, David, where was Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: against Trump and Florida?

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Speaker 5: Oh far, I mean it was like night and day.

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Speaker 4: You know what we've seen with Joe Biden is he

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Speaker 4: had just low enthusiasm. Even in our most recent national poll,

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Speaker 4: it was a difference of people being excited for Joe

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Speaker 4: Biden Russ very excited for Donald Trump. It was a

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Speaker 4: twenty point difference. Now in Florida, it's pretty much wiped out.

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Speaker 4: The amount of people who say they're voting for Kamala

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Speaker 4: Harris are excited almost equally as they are for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 5: So that's off the table. The excitement advantage that Trump

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Speaker 5: had with Biden.

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Speaker 2: Fascinating. So you mentioned the third parties RFK. You combine

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Speaker 2: third party voters with so called double haters, and this

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Speaker 2: is the mushy mital here, right, This is the area

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Speaker 2: that these candidates can actually maybe pick off some votes. David,

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Speaker 2: how large is that pool when you put him together?

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Speaker 5: It's really large.

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Speaker 4: You know, when you're talking about percentage points, and now

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Speaker 4: we're talking about a five point lead, not a fifteen

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Speaker 4: point lead. So it's a it's an amazing dynamic to dissect.

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Speaker 4: I mean, RFK was winning ten percent of no Party

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Speaker 4: of affiliations or independence ten percent. He was winning twelve

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Speaker 4: percent of black voters in Florida. He's winning seventeen percent

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Speaker 4: of independent women that Kamala Harris really needs to win over.

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Speaker 4: She already has a fairly big lead among independent women.

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Speaker 4: But RFK was winning seventeen percent of them. So when

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Speaker 4: you look at RK dropping and you're seeing some of

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Speaker 4: these percentages potentially rotating to Kamala Harris that potentially could

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Speaker 4: see even a closer race. That doesn't mean that she's

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Speaker 4: going to win. It just means that the way the

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Speaker 4: dynamics are, it's a closer race than you would think.

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Speaker 2: Spending time with David Paleologos at Suffolk University Political Research Center,

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Speaker 2: David will Kamala Harris get a traditional convention bump out

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Speaker 2: of Chicago next week.

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Speaker 5: I think you have to expect it.

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Speaker 4: I mean, we have to look at history and you know,

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Speaker 4: and if that's the case, then her in the national

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Speaker 4: polls will probably jump a couple of points to maybe

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Speaker 4: plus seven or plus eight, and then some of the

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Speaker 4: swing states maybe.

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Speaker 5: Plus five six.

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Speaker 4: And I think that's why the Florida polls make sense

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Speaker 4: to me. You know, you've got that dynamic going on

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Speaker 4: nationally and in the swing states, and you know, in Florida,

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Speaker 4: a lot of people don't realize this, but Florida has

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Speaker 4: a ballot question on legalized marijuana, recreational marijuana that's going

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Speaker 4: to drive out young people. They have an abortion rights question,

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Speaker 4: state wide abortion rights question, which is going to drive

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Speaker 4: out women drive up women, which will then by default,

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Speaker 4: will help Kamala Harris's campaign. So when you're polling, you

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Speaker 4: kind of have to take each cycle and eat the

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Speaker 4: dynamics that are going on in each state into account,

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Speaker 4: and we're picking that.

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Speaker 5: Up in the polling.

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Speaker 2: David, I had to chuckle this morning. I was reading

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Speaker 2: the Politico out of the State House in Boston, and

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Speaker 2: apparently the governor and Lieutenant Governor Mara Heally and Lieutenant

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Speaker 2: govern will be in Chicago attending the festivities next week,

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Speaker 2: and your state auditor is going to be in control

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Speaker 2: of the government while they're gone.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, hold on to your wallet. I guess with the

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Speaker 5: state unit are being in control.

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Speaker 4: Uh, you know, I wouldn't want to be managing any

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Speaker 4: of the state agencies at this at this time, but

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Speaker 4: you know, to be king for a day, Yeah, I

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Speaker 4: mean I expected Heally. I mean it makes sense to

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Speaker 4: me what Heally offers to the National Democratic ticket. Lieutenant

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Speaker 4: are surprised a bit, but you know, everybody, I don't

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Speaker 4: know it personally, but everybody that you know I talk

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Speaker 4: to speak very highly of the governor as well.

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Speaker 2: So it's just one of the progressive celebrities in Chicago. Hey, David,

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Speaker 2: it's great to have you back. David Paley logos Suffolk

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Speaker 2: University Research Center with the latest on the trail. Even

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Speaker 2: in Florida, the numbers are moving This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power kens just

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Speaker 2: up in the studio and we welcome you always here

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Speaker 2: in our first hour, about to talk about not only

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Speaker 2: the campaign, which we've been invested in, and this CPI

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Speaker 2: day with the intersection of politics and the economy. Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump today rolling out his economic plan ahead of Kamala

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Speaker 2: Harris doing the same on Friday. But one of the

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Speaker 2: most important stories that's developing before our eyes here is

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Speaker 2: one that is not getting enough coverage, and a couple

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Speaker 2: of months ago would have been our lead story here

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Speaker 2: for days on end, I'm sure, and that is Ukraine's

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Speaker 2: incursion into Russia going on the offensive in the Curse region,

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Speaker 2: as we've discussed here, and they are not turning back

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Speaker 2: story on the terminal says it all. Russia says its

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Speaker 2: air defenses had quite a night, shooting down one hundred

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Speaker 2: and seventeen drones and four tactical missiles in one of

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Speaker 2: the largest overnight attacks of this war since it began.

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Speaker 2: The Defense Ministry in Moscow says its forces destroyed unmanned

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Speaker 2: aerial vehicles over almost all regions bordering Ukraine. This is

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Speaker 2: a remarkable moment we're in here. By the way, a

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Speaker 2: Russian SU thirty four fighter bomber was apparently also shot

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Speaker 2: down in the Kursk region. If you're with us on YouTube,

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Speaker 2: showing you a map now of that region in yellow.

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Speaker 2: Here if you're listening on the radio, this is northeastern

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Speaker 2: Ukraine into Russia. And a pleasure to introduce doctor Rebecca

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Speaker 2: Grant as we seek insights on what's happening and what

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Speaker 2: might happen next, national security analyst and senior fellow at

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Speaker 2: the Lexington Institute, Doctor Grant, it's great to see you

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg. Thank you for giving us some of your

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Speaker 2: time today. Broadly speaking, here Ukraine has been pretty quiet

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Speaker 2: about this. It was only in the last twenty four

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Speaker 2: hours President Zelenski confirmed what was going on. How important

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Speaker 2: is this foothold across the border going to be for Ukraine?

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Speaker 7: This is very very important, and the Kursk pocket proves

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Speaker 7: first of all that Ukraine is still very much in

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Speaker 7: this fight. As you said, a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 7: a couple of months ago, it looked like the war

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Speaker 7: was locked in a stalemate. Of course, that is still

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Speaker 7: true along the eastern and the southern front, but Ukraine,

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Speaker 7: with this surprise flank attack, has really opened up a

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Speaker 7: new chapter and very interesting to me that the White

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Speaker 7: House is absolutely fine with this. So this Ukrainian offensive

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Speaker 7: in to Russia is going on with more than tacit

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Speaker 7: approval from the United States and also from other NATO allies.

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Speaker 2: So how does Ukraine turn this into a foothold? How

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Speaker 2: long can they hold this area? Can they expand it?

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Speaker 7: Well, that is the perfect question of what happens now.

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Speaker 7: And because of the operational security around Ukraine's operation, you

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Speaker 7: know we are going to just be guessing and watching

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Speaker 7: YouTube and watching the.

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Speaker 8: Map to see what happens.

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Speaker 7: What we know so far is this incursion is about

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Speaker 7: forty five miles deep and about twenty miles wide, they've

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Speaker 7: been able to do it using vehicles like the US

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Speaker 7: made Striker and others to move very very quickly. Got

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Speaker 7: to mention it shows that Ukraine's forces have been very

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Speaker 7: well trained by several NATO partners, and they're really very

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Speaker 7: very capable. They're also rotating forces up to the battle

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Speaker 7: edge and then back out very professional. But the question

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Speaker 7: now is are they going for a particular objective, Will

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Speaker 7: they then consolidate or at some.

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Speaker 8: Point will they pull back.

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Speaker 7: What we know is that Zelensky has said he doesn't

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Speaker 7: intend to take and hold territory inside Russia. But what

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Speaker 7: we don't know is how close Ukraine is to reaching

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Speaker 7: their operational objectives with this invasion.

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Speaker 8: We're really moving into the second week now.

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Speaker 7: They may be going further north, perhaps towards a nuclear

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Speaker 7: power plant, or maybe they've already made their point.

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Speaker 8: We'll see.

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Speaker 2: We've seen Russian civilians tens of thousands evacuate that area,

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Speaker 2: and it made many of us ask the question what

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Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin might be preparing as he gets Russian Russian

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Speaker 2: citizens out of the way and a potential retaliatory strike

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Speaker 2: against the Ukrainian military. But I know your specialty is

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Speaker 2: in air power air defense. Ukraine has F sixteens. Now,

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Speaker 2: I don't know how well trained these pilots are, but

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Speaker 2: we're told they have US munitions. Will those F sixteen's

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Speaker 2: help to protect Ukrainians on the ground in Russia?

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Speaker 8: Good question.

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Speaker 7: The F sixteens are certainly helping to protect Ukraine. Are

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Speaker 7: they doing a combined arms operation with the Ukrainian forces

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Speaker 7: in Russia?

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Speaker 8: You know, we simply don't know.

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Speaker 7: We have seen a couple video clips of Ukraine Air

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Speaker 7: Force weapons detonation in that Kursk pocket, but we.

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Speaker 8: Don't know what the platform is.

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Speaker 7: As to the F sixteen pilots in Ukraine, you know,

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Speaker 7: how well trained are they?

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Speaker 8: Hey, these are really really good pilots. First of all, they.

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Speaker 7: Came in as experienced aviators with combat experience, and they've

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Speaker 7: been through the F sixteen schoolhouse, so they know not

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Speaker 7: only how to fly the F sixteen, but how to

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Speaker 7: employ it as a weapon system.

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Speaker 8: And the F sixteen, of course.

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Speaker 7: Has incredible area capabilities, but mostly we're talking about air

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Speaker 7: to ground attack and the ability of the S sixteen

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Speaker 7: to target Russian air defenses, including the air defenses that

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Speaker 7: have been converted into ground to ground strike missiles for

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Speaker 7: the Russians. So the F sixteens definitely are opening a new chapter,

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Speaker 7: and we're seeing some combined arms work between air power

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Speaker 7: and ground formations in the Kerk Pocket.

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Speaker 2: Spending time with doctor Rebecca Grant at the Lexington Institute,

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Speaker 2: I want to turn your attention, Rebecca to the Middle East.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: I know you're doing a lot of work for US today,

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Speaker 2: but we're waiting for retaliatory strike, possibly maybe not by

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Speaker 2: Iran against Israel. To the point where the US has

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Speaker 2: been surging a lot extra hardware into the region, not

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Speaker 2: just the guided missile subs or the aircraft carrier Strike

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Speaker 2: Group that have been making headlines, but more F twenty

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Speaker 2: two's to stand by for whatever might happen. And remembering

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Speaker 2: the April attack by Iran, the drone attack, the missile

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Speaker 2: attack into Israel, we saw American pilots shooting down missiles

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Speaker 2: and drones from US fighter jets. Are we going to

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Speaker 2: see that again with these F twenty twos if Iran

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Speaker 2: decides to strike, oh.

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Speaker 7: One hundred percent, if Iran tries another big attack with

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Speaker 7: you know, three hundred objects like they did back in April.

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Speaker 7: You know, so the tactical problem is this. It's about

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Speaker 7: one thousand miles from Tehran to Tel Aviv. That's a

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Speaker 7: big swath of airspace, and so US Central Command is

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Speaker 7: guarding that by using land based fighters like the F

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Speaker 7: twenty twos that have been surged into theatre. And let

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Speaker 7: me tell you that I think is the biggest combat

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Speaker 7: deployment of F twenty two's that we've ever seen. Already,

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Speaker 7: there was the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier with her

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Speaker 7: air wing, which as far as I can tell, is

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Speaker 7: doing twenty four to seven operations, so they monitor this.

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Speaker 7: I believe Jordan is probably helping out because Jordan, of

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Speaker 7: course borders over in that other.

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Speaker 8: Side of the airspace.

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Speaker 7: So we have to be able to watch the airspace

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Speaker 7: using missile defense systems and then using the fighter aircraft

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Speaker 7: to be able to chase down an intercept. Particularly in

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Speaker 7: this case the Irans rather slow flying drones. They are

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Speaker 7: incredibly vulnerable. So you're an F twenty two pilot and

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Speaker 7: your cockpit display has showing you a whole lot of

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Speaker 7: Iranian targets in the air. If Iran tries a similar

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Speaker 7: type of strike.

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Speaker 2: What an incredible image that you're painting here, Rebecca This

439
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 2: is direct engagement we're talking about with Americans. It's the

440
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 2: equivalent of boots on the ground in the sky in

441
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,719
Speaker 2: this case, what would that mean if one of our

442
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 2: aircrews was knocked out of the sky, if this became

443
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 2: more complex in our effort to protect Israel.

444
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 8: Well, you're right, it is boots in the sky.

445
00:24:58,160 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 3: Believe me.

446
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 7: The fighter pilots have their own boots, so they fly

447
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 7: in boots, and it is boots in the sky.

448
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 9: You know.

449
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,639
Speaker 7: First of all, there's always a search and rescue plan

450
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 7: in place. But more importantly, we've deployed our top of

451
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 7: the line systems F twenty two's F thirty five seats.

452
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,199
Speaker 7: Actually it's a marine squadron heading into the region and

453
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 7: other fifteen's and other fighters in place. So the idea

454
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 7: is to have enough superiority and enough visibility in the

455
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 7: battle space, and by that I mean F twenty two

456
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 7: and others are looking to see where it rans.

457
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 8: Air defenses pop up.

458
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 7: They can see when something goes hot on their screen

459
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,399
Speaker 7: and give warning to others in the strike package, and

460
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 7: of course than attack and neutralize it if necessary. So

461
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:45,120
Speaker 7: using that great stealth and situation awareness should make this

462
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 7: a rarely an airspace where the US and allies can

463
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,239
Speaker 7: be absolutely dominant. That's the point of bringing in all

464
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 7: our first line weapons.

465
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 2: So you're clearly not worried about the potential for an

466
00:25:55,880 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 2: escalatory standoff here by putting American service members in this

467
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 2: case airmen and sailors marines in a direct confrontation with

468
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 2: unmanned weapons from Irun.

469
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 8: Well, make no mistake.

470
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 7: The US has deployed enough so that they actually have

471
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 7: some good strike options.

472
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 8: Available, and by that I mean the ability.

473
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 7: To attack hooty targets in Yemen, the ability to attack

474
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:28,639
Speaker 7: targets in Iran if that becomes necessary, and then to

475
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,679
Speaker 7: strike back against any other I ran back militia. So

476
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:35,479
Speaker 7: deploying enough to have offensive strike options is part of

477
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 7: the deterrence equation, and this mass of high level US

478
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 7: forces is meant to be squashing down Iran's tactical options.

479
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 7: Hopefully that deters an attack. If not, it makes it

480
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,920
Speaker 7: much easier to defend against that. Might there be some

481
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 7: retaliatory strikes by the US depending on the circumstances. Well, yeah,

482
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 7: they've got the firepower in theater to do it. But

483
00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 7: the goal is not to start a war to maintain

484
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 7: or reestablish deterrence.

485
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable, just in our remaining moment, Doctor, The more

486
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 2: time goes by, does that make it less likely that

487
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 2: iron strikes?

488
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 7: You know, only Iran knows, and we're here. Remember their

489
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 7: president has only been in power for a few weeks.

490
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:21,879
Speaker 7: We're hearing about divisions. I'd like to think the crisis diminishes,

491
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 7: but really only Iran knows about that decisions. But boy,

492
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 7: they are staring at a lot of us and Allied

493
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 7: firepower right now.

494
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,359
Speaker 2: Fascinating conversation, doctor, and I really appreciate your joining us.

495
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 2: Those of us who've been watching on YouTube have been

496
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 2: admiring what has to be the coolest Mantle photograph I've

497
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 2: ever seen. Behind you ten ten on the room rater, doctor,

498
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 2: many thanks, and don't be a stranger, Doctor Rebecca Grant,

499
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 2: national Security Analyst, senior fellow at the Lexington Institute. With

500
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 2: our eyes on two theaters here and a lot of

501
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 2: questions about what might happen in the coming days, just

502
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 2: consider we're going to be in Chicago on Monday for

503
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 2: the DNC. Could this be the backdrop of Day one

504
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 2: when Joe Biden addresses the delegates with Iran dealing with

505
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 2: Israel and the US in the mix. We're going to

506
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 2: have a lot more ahead. We'll assemble our political panel

507
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 2: next as you would expect on the fastest show in politics.

508
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 2: Thanks for being with us. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington.

509
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of

510
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 2: Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on

511
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,880
Speaker 2: appocarplay and enroun Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

512
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

513
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 2: live on YouTube here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite

514
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 2: and on YouTube. It's good to have. You can always

515
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 2: find us on YouTube all of our shows throughout the day.

516
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 2: Search Bloomberg Business News Live, blam Oh, there's our live feed.

517
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 2: We'll meet you there on CPI Day, which seems to

518
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 2: have more political connotation than ever as we move closer

519
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 2: to the convention, closer to the closer to the debate

520
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: when the economy, when prices for goods and services will

521
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 2: be in the air. The smartest political analysis I read

522
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 2: this morning after eight thirty came from end to current.

523
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 2: It was just one post on our top live blog,

524
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 2: and it says it all the fact of the matter

525
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 2: is fourth month of cooling inflation. Great news for Kamala Harris.

526
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 2: But both campaigns can find a lot to talk about

527
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 2: in here. As I read on the blog from end

528
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 2: to if you're on the Harris campaign team, you're probably

529
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 2: breathing easier. The headline takeaway inflation continues to ease. That's

530
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 2: the easy part, right fed cut next month. But if

531
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 2: you're the Trump campaign, you will not lose time highlighting

532
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 2: the ongoing sting from housing costs. Remember we talked about

533
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 2: shelter costs with Stuart Paul car insurance. He also highlighted

534
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 2: it and other staples the fodder for each side of

535
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 2: the aisle. So everybody is happy today in the world

536
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 2: of politics, and I'm glad to say end to Current

537
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 2: is with us right now. Bloomberg Global Economics reporter, good

538
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 2: to see you. You've got a real political mind. As

539
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 2: you look at this data, I sort of think of

540
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 2: you that way. And that's the way we have to

541
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 2: be reading this stuff now, isn't it.

542
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 10: I think we have to be at this stage of

543
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 10: election cycle, as you know so well, Joe. You know

544
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 10: all the polls have told us that the economy has

545
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 10: been top of mind for people. The cost of living

546
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 10: has been top of mind for people. Now we have

547
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 10: this inflation data for July. Like you say, headline number

548
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 10: is pretty good, suggesting the the Fed and the policy

549
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 10: makers are turning in corner with inflation prices coming down

550
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 10: for apparel, for airfares, prices coming down for new news cars.

551
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 10: There's good news there, inflation coming off the ball. But

552
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 10: to your point, I mean within that big sting in

553
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 10: the tail with rents still going up. Rents weren't meant

554
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 10: to be going up at this pace by now. The

555
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 10: hope was that they'll be turning off. And in other

556
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 10: daily stables that car insurance. You know, you buy a

557
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 10: cheap car, but you're going to pay fortune on car insurance.

558
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 10: Plenty of stinging the tail there. So yes, the point

559
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 10: is good news on a headline basis, of course, administration

560
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 10: and welcome mad But if you're in the opposition, you're

561
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 10: in the trum campaign. Plenty for you two ride home

562
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 10: on too.

563
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 2: You remember there was a presidential campaign wrapped around this

564
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 2: whole thing at one point. Why because the rent is

565
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 2: too damn high does Donald Trump start talking about this

566
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 2: shelter costs a real thing and a lot of young

567
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 2: people can relate with it, of course, he are.

568
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 10: And housing costs very real. I mean it varies around

569
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 10: the country, of course, but certainly the housing market has

570
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 10: been in something of a funk canire for the past

571
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 10: two years. You know, investors aren't willing to invest develop property,

572
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 10: people are willing to sell their homes. Is it sort

573
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 10: of an inventory problem? There's a high rent story. There's

574
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 10: a lot going on there. So yes, you would say

575
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 10: it's good political, fertile political ground for anyone to harvest.

576
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 10: But you would imagine maybe Vice President Harris too might

577
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 10: come out with some ideas of her own. As you know,

578
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 10: she has her speech coming up this year, so she

579
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 10: may also use that as an opportunity to let her Oh.

580
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 2: I'm glad you brought that up, because we're going to

581
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 2: talk to our panel about this next. Donald Trump talks today,

582
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,719
Speaker 2: and we've heard his plan is largely to get at

583
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 2: it through energy. Drill, baby drill. He says, you bring

584
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 2: energy prices lower, and everything else follows. Some voters want

585
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 2: to hear a little more than that. I know investors do,

586
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 2: and you wonder to what extent will Kamala Harris be

587
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 2: able to show any sunlight between herself and Joe Biden issue.

588
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 10: Well, politically it means she has to make that calculation

589
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 10: how far can't you push them out? But on the ground,

590
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 10: to your point, people would probably love to hear some

591
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:10,479
Speaker 10: solutions in terms of how do you bring or how

592
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 10: do you slow to increase in rent, how do you

593
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 10: increase supply in housing. I mean, ninety percent of the

594
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 10: inflation increase today was because of the whole shelter story,

595
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 10: So there's a I think people on the ground of

596
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 10: any stripe are open to solutions in terms of easing

597
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 10: up the housing story and in other aspects of costs

598
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 10: of living too. How do you tackle what's going on

599
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 10: in curR insurance, for example, how can you keep an

600
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 10: eye on companies who are price gouging. There's lots of

601
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 10: charity there for both candidates. It's a question of just

602
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 10: how do you want to sell that to the public.

603
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 2: So that's right, helping us get our arms around the

604
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 2: most important issue on the trail and the current Thank

605
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 2: you Wender, Great to see you as always, Bloomberg Global

606
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 2: Economy reporter, connecting the dots for us here as we

607
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 2: assemble our political panel. Genie Shanzino is whether Bloomberg Politics

608
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 2: contributor of course, democratic strategist and political science professor at

609
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 2: Iona University. And Brittany Martinez, Republican strategist, founder of A

610
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 2: Spina and Company. Great to see you both and thanks

611
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 2: for joining the conversation. Brittany, I'll start with you because

612
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is up first here. We're going to hear

613
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 2: from both candidates on their economic plans this week. Does

614
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 2: he need to say more today than drill, Baby, Drill.

615
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 9: I do think he needs to say more than that,

616
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 9: and also just stay on message. I think he needs

617
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 9: to stop talking about crowd sizes, you know, wondering what

618
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 9: race or nationality. You know, the vice president is a

619
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,719
Speaker 9: race I should say, and really focus on, you know,

620
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 9: what he did when he was president. A lot of people,

621
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 9: whether you like Trump or not, a lot of people

622
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 9: aren't happy with the economy under Biden, and they feel

623
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 9: that they were in a better spot under Trump, and

624
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 9: so he really needs to be able to hammer that

625
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 9: point home and be able to connect with people on

626
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 9: that level and not be just so erratic in his

627
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 9: messaging all the time.

628
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 2: Genie, there was a poll that I think so far

629
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 2: as an outlier from the Financial Times earlier this week,

630
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 2: and we talked about it when it was released, suggesting

631
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 2: that more people actually trust Kamala Harris when it comes

632
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 2: to handling the economy than Donald Trump. But every other poll,

633
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 2: including our own Swing State Pole, shows a wide lead

634
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 2: for Trump on who do you trust to handle the economy?

635
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 2: Interest rates, the cost of goods, the cost of services.

636
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 2: She's going to have to remove herself from Joe Biden

637
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 2: on this issue to make a difference, won't she.

638
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 11: She will?

639
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 12: And you know, you were just talking about the Suffolk poll.

640
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 12: You look at that obviously Florida, but Donald Trump winning

641
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,400
Speaker 12: amongst people who say the economy is the most important

642
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 12: issue by something like thirty points. And you know, we

643
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,800
Speaker 12: see that across the nation. As much as the Financial

644
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:39,359
Speaker 12: Times poll really got Democrats happy and excited, and they

645
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 12: seem to be moving in the right direction on the

646
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 12: economy and on immigration, Donald Trump is still winning by

647
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 12: large numbers. And so to Berney's point, if he can

648
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:54,320
Speaker 12: stay on message, that would be very helpful to the campaign.

649
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 12: The problem has been he has been way off message.

650
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 12: I mean I listened to the Musk interview. He had

651
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 12: forty minutes on the assassination attempt, and much less on

652
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 12: how his economic policy and plans and record, because he

653
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:12,319
Speaker 12: has one is different than Kamala Harris's and so that

654
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,320
Speaker 12: is what he needs to do. And to your point,

655
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 12: she needs to define herself. As much as she has

656
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 12: been our vice president, most people still don't know a

657
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 12: lot about Kamala Harris and what her plans are and

658
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,279
Speaker 12: who she is. So she's got, unlike Joe Biden, this

659
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 12: window to define herself on the economy, and it's going

660
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 12: to be critically important. I think what she says in

661
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 12: Maryland with the President and then in North Carolina this

662
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 12: week critically important to the rest of the campaign because

663
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 12: the economy is it for most voters as they run

664
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:44,320
Speaker 12: to the polls in November.

665
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 2: And that's its tall order, Genie, I'm sure you would agree.

666
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 2: I mean, this has been in the White House with

667
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 2: Joe Biden since we came out of COVID, since inflation

668
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 2: has been a story here. So to try to slice

669
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 2: this thing into something different is going to be a

670
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 2: real task. Brittany. The fact of the matter is Republicans

671
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 2: have the goods here. You can talk about a fourth

672
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 2: month of ongoing inflation, but there's a reason why the

673
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,319
Speaker 2: White House, in its statement on the CPI today said

674
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 2: prices are still too high. Republicans, Donald Trump, anybody JD.

675
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 2: Vance can point to very specifically shelter costs. You've done

676
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:22,880
Speaker 2: nothing to help young people get a foothold in the

677
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:27,359
Speaker 2: housing market, car insurance, the cost of vehicles themselves, even

678
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 2: getting at the EV issue here, Brittany, isn't this a

679
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 2: grab bag for the Trump campaign?

680
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 9: It absolutely should be. I think that when Republicans are

681
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 9: able to stay on a message when it comes to

682
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 9: these sorts of things, they're able to be successful. But again,

683
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 9: the question is is whether he's able to stay on

684
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 9: message or not. He hasn't really been able to. And

685
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 9: then when you look at his candidate, Senator Vance, he

686
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 9: has also kind of been in these first few weeks

687
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 9: as the choice, a chaotic choice, a chaotic candidate, right,

688
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 9: I mean, he's he, I think was the lowest ranking

689
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:06,919
Speaker 9: VP pick in the polls of all time, and that

690
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 9: you're right, there are so many things to point to

691
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 9: and if you happen to catch Yesterday, Nikki Haley, she

692
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:15,320
Speaker 9: did an interview where she was saying Republicans needs to

693
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 9: stop whining and they need to start paying attention to

694
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,799
Speaker 9: these issues and talking about these issues because this is

695
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 9: what people care about. I think that when it comes

696
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 9: to the debate in a few weeks here, we'll maybe

697
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 9: see them on both sides really stick to those talking points.

698
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 9: But we're a few weeks out and people are starting

699
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 9: to pay attention, especially with the DNC convention coming up

700
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:37,439
Speaker 9: next week. So yes, I think there's more than enough

701
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 9: here for Republicans, especially at the top of the ticket,

702
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 9: to be talking about. But that's not the case unfortunately

703
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 9: for them.

704
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 2: Talk about the convention for a moment here. Of course,

705
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:49,760
Speaker 2: we're going to be there Monday, one week from tonight, Jeanie.

706
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:54,479
Speaker 2: We've added another here to the list, Transportation Secretary Pete

707
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 2: buddhajeedge lands a prime time slot on Wednesday Night. This

708
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 2: is Jim Wall's Knight and Harris and Walls. Also, we

709
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 2: have learned next week are going to plan a rally

710
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 2: not in Chicago, but in Milwaukee. They're going to use

711
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 2: it looks like the very same convention hall that Donald

712
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 2: Trump used in Milwaukee. What do you make of these

713
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 2: updates to the agenda and what does it tell us

714
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 2: specifically about Pete Boodha Judge landing a slot like that.

715
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 12: Yeah, I think it's smart for them to go to Milwaukee, right,

716
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,759
Speaker 12: you know, it's not far right across the border. Wisconsin,

717
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 12: as we know, a must state, So it does make sense.

718
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 12: And heck, if you can take Donald Trump's tax policies

719
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 12: on say tips for waiters and waitresses, why not go

720
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 12: to his convention house. So there you go. You know,

721
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 12: I do think the Buddha Judge move makes good sense

722
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 12: as well. Incredibly popular with the base. He is an

723
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:57,880
Speaker 12: up and coming star in the Democratic side, and so

724
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 12: you know that's the kind of person you want. And Joe,

725
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 12: I have to say, I think earlier you gave me

726
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:07,200
Speaker 12: an idea for somebody else. Jimmy McMillan, The rent is

727
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:08,400
Speaker 12: too damn high.

728
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:09,879
Speaker 2: Guys, Yes, thank you.

729
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 12: Yeah, as a New Yorker, we know him. He's you know,

730
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 12: the rent is too damn high for everybody. So get

731
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 12: him out there at the along with Judge.

732
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 2: God, you just pulled that in, Jimmy McMillan. You think

733
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:23,880
Speaker 2: I'll have the gloves on the leather gloves and the

734
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 2: whole thing. The rent is too damn high, party, Brittany,

735
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 2: is there something there for Republicans to seize on.

736
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean always, especially Trump. Look, we all know

737
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 9: that Trump likes giving people nicknames. I think that would

738
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 9: be a smart nickname to use as opposed to, you know,

739
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 9: all of the crazy ones that he's saying. But yeah,

740
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 9: I mean there's, like I said, there's just so much

741
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 9: here to pull from, and it's a matter of whether

742
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 9: he can remain on messaging or not. And I think

743
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,359
Speaker 9: next week it's going to be really interesting to see

744
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 9: what comes out of the Democrats convention.

745
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 8: I agree with you.

746
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 9: Seeing that buddhaj Edge is sort of at a prime

747
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 9: time spot shows that they care, that's what they want

748
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 9: to be leaning into, not just now, but in the future,

749
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:06,879
Speaker 9: and they see him as a rising star in the party.

750
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:10,440
Speaker 9: I mean obviously he is. He's been you know, from

751
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 9: Mayor Pete to Department of Transportation, right. And I think

752
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 9: though Republicans, if they're paying attention and tuning in, especially

753
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 9: Trump campaign, they should be. I'm sure they will be

754
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 9: Trump Love's TV be able to use some of those

755
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 9: things to help them with what they should be saying.

756
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 2: American People producer Matt says it all. Jimmy McMillan best

757
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 2: facial hair in politics, not counting Ty Cobb. If that

758
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 2: means something to you, you are truly a wonk. Would

759
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 2: you try to counter program the convention, Brittany? Or should

760
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 2: Donald Trump laylow reset the clock next week?

761
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 9: I think resetting the clock would be helpful. Is it

762
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:55,720
Speaker 9: possible or probable? Probably not. But we did see though,

763
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 9: between the debate and the assassination and attempt, there were

764
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 9: a few weeks he was pretty under the radar. I

765
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,720
Speaker 9: think right now what I've seen is Trump who continues

766
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 9: to spiral when all these polls are coming out that

767
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 9: now has the vice president ahead of him, especially out

768
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 9: of the swing states.

769
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:13,920
Speaker 8: I think he needs.

770
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 9: To take a breath, take a be and just sort

771
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 9: of reassess and just give his team an opportunity to

772
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 9: sort of reframe what it is that they want to

773
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 9: be saying, focusing on moving forward. I think that would

774
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:28,280
Speaker 9: be to his benefit. Can he help himself? Who knows?

775
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 9: Probably not, but we've seen him do it in the past.

776
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 9: He can be more subdued and stay on message in

777
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 9: those capacities.

778
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:38,879
Speaker 2: Great panel today with Brittany Martinez and Genie Shanzano.

779
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

780
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:48,799
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

781
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 1: roun oo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

782
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

783
00:41:55,440 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty of courses.

784
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 13: We watched the inflation picture unfolding before our eyes. Think

785
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:05,839
Speaker 13: about how we are talking a lot about shelter, maybe

786
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 13: less so about other volatile components like energy. Now it

787
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 13: does speak to the relative not stasis, but the relative

788
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 13: more calm that seems to be in energy markets now

789
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 13: for now though, as we still are on watch to

790
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 13: see whether or not there is actually an escalation in

791
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 13: conflict in the Middle East, as we are still waiting

792
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 13: to see if and when Iran and Hesbelo will actually

793
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:30,719
Speaker 13: retaliate against it was crude.

794
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 2: Oil WTI is still just sitting there at seventy seven

795
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 2: dollars a barrel like none of this is happening.

796
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 13: Well, because right now, frankly, nothing really is happening. The

797
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 13: question is is that by design or it does that

798
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 13: signal that actually maybe nothing will come for all of

799
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,239
Speaker 13: the talk and warrning of it. So it's on this

800
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 13: note now that we turn to Ambassador Thomas Pickering. He

801
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 13: is former US Ambassador to the UN, former Ambassador to

802
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 13: Russia as well US Ambassador to Russia. That is, sir,

803
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 13: it's always great to have you here. We would like

804
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 13: to get your thoughts on Russia in Ukraine as well.

805
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 13: But if we could just begin with what's happening in

806
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,839
Speaker 13: the Middle East, given that we have seen nothing yet

807
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 13: from Iran or its proxies, does that just signal that

808
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 13: they're delaying for what could be a larger attack than

809
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 13: we saw in April, or that maybe they're considering not

810
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 13: doing anything at all.

811
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 11: Quite possible, and we've seen some statements on their part

812
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 11: that they may, for reasons that are not yet clear,

813
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:30,160
Speaker 11: beholding off for any particular reason. It is certainly clear

814
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 11: that the US has sent a very stern and very

815
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 11: tough message and wishes to avoid the outbreak of a

816
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 11: conflict that begins to escalate in cascade in the region,

817
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 11: for very very good reasons, having to do with obviously

818
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:51,720
Speaker 11: the safety and security of Israel on the one hand,

819
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 11: to which the US has committed, but also to the

820
00:43:55,480 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 11: galloping death toll of Palestinians in Gaza, about which Vice

821
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 11: President Harris has spoken out quite firmly recently.

822
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 2: Ambassador, we've seen the biggest mobilization of F twenty two

823
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 2: fighter jets into an area of combat that we have

824
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 2: ever seen here, and I wonder if you're concerned or

825
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 2: it gives you comfort to know that American airmen, sailors

826
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 2: and marines will likely be directly involved in knocking down

827
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 2: whatever Iran throws at Israel.

828
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 11: Joe, it has to be both. Obviously, anything that can

829
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 11: deter damp down any enthusiasm on the part of either

830
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 11: party to launch a series of military actions which have

831
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 11: the potential of cascading into a much broader conflict is

832
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 11: very much in our interest. At the same time, obviously,

833
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:55,319
Speaker 11: any actions taken which precipitate that particular kind of activity

834
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 11: are going to be clearly steps not in our interest,

835
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 11: not in the region's interest, and not in the workout

836
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 11: of the problems in the region, in the interest of

837
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:11,440
Speaker 11: those people who believe is I do that a cease

838
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 11: fire and hostage exchange are very much important questions, and

839
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 11: that will come up tomorrow in the resumed talks. I

840
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 11: wish I could tell you I would greet that with

841
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 11: more confidence, but it remains a very very conflictive, very

842
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 11: contentious set of problems that does not appear at this

843
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 11: stage from the outside to be on the edge of

844
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 11: settlement as much as the US culture, Egypt and others

845
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 11: are engaged in seeking to push it in that direction.

846
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 13: Well, on that note, Ambassador, if from US is not

847
00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:53,200
Speaker 13: at the table tomorrow, do you believe that they will

848
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 13: get there or is this kind of the last chance

849
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 13: to really get this done. If it doesn't happen this week,

850
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,320
Speaker 13: why would we have any face that it will happen?

851
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 11: Ever, Kayleie, the process of seeking peace in a place

852
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:09,799
Speaker 11: like the Middle East is not based on auguries of

853
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 11: hope driving us on, but alternatives that are worse that

854
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 11: manifacture what I would call the impulsion to move ahead.

855
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 11: And it's been arguable that in the Middle East conflict,

856
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 11: despite the very high casualty rates and the massive range

857
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 11: of destruction and the problems on both sides, we have

858
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:37,840
Speaker 11: not reached the point where the parties feel there is

859
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:43,240
Speaker 11: enough disadvantage to continuing the conflict to precipitate the beginning

860
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:46,319
Speaker 11: of a serious look to see whether they can gain

861
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 11: more from negotiations than they can gain from further shooting.

862
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 2: Ambassador. Of course, you were also ambassador to a number

863
00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 2: of other nations here that give you expertise on what's

864
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 2: happening in the world, including Russia. And we're looking at

865
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:06,840
Speaker 2: Ukraine continue its incursion into Russian territory and offensive that

866
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:09,439
Speaker 2: appears to be taking hold now about two weeks old.

867
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 2: Russia last night had to knock down one hundred and

868
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 2: seventeen drones from Ukraine. Is this something that could become

869
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:18,920
Speaker 2: a foothold for a wider offensive.

870
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:23,520
Speaker 11: I think that we're in a situation in which many

871
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:27,840
Speaker 11: of us remain skeptical that there is a battlefield victory

872
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 11: in sight, but intrigued by the notion that the Ukrainians

873
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:38,879
Speaker 11: have launched a set of military activities into Russian territory

874
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 11: which the Russians, with all of their undoubted strength and superiority,

875
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 11: have not been able to dislodge. And that is the

876
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 11: kind of set up one would expect to see if

877
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:58,240
Speaker 11: it continues, become a potential basis for convincing one side

878
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 11: or another that they have more to gain in negotiations

879
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,839
Speaker 11: than they have to gain in continued conflict. We'll wait

880
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:10,879
Speaker 11: and see. I think both President Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu,

881
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:15,879
Speaker 11: and perhaps politicians in this country as well, are very

882
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:21,239
Speaker 11: much engaged in the idea that in these conflicts they

883
00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 11: have more to gain from avoiding things like prosecution and

884
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 11: so on, either for international criminal courts or for domestic courts,

885
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 11: by continuing the conflict then by moving it into the

886
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:39,839
Speaker 11: negotiating process, And we have to be careful of that

887
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 11: and watch that as one of the determining factors.

888
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:47,800
Speaker 13: Well, so, Ambassador, do you see, is this Ukrainian incursion

889
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 13: into Russian territory ask something ultimately that does bring the

890
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 13: war closer to its end than it was before, because

891
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 13: either it makes Ukraine more likely to have a victory

892
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:02,360
Speaker 13: outright or at least at the very least negotiations negotiators

893
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 13: to the table.

894
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 11: Kayley, that interpretation is not totally excluded, if I can

895
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 11: be very cautious in saying it, but it is not

896
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:14,359
Speaker 11: something that I think is inevitable. But we have been

897
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:18,000
Speaker 11: looking in the Russia Ukraine war for the idea that

898
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 11: there does not seem to be at hand a military

899
00:49:22,719 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 11: victory on the part of either side, despite both Russian

900
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 11: larger capacity as a power on the one hand, and

901
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 11: world continued support for Ukraine in the main on the

902
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 11: other hand, to tip the balance, But a Ukrainian success

903
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:46,240
Speaker 11: which can be sustained may begin to open the door

904
00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 11: to thinking on the other side, do I have more

905
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 11: to lose by continuing the conflict or more to gain

906
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 11: by negotiating a solution? And it is that set of capacities,

907
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:02,480
Speaker 11: if I could put it that way, of changes that

908
00:50:02,719 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 11: often precede a negotiated outcome. But it is not certain

909
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 11: and it is not based on any estimation of how

910
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 11: the parties and their leaders have acted up until now

911
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 11: to expect that a negotiated solution is around the corner.

912
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 11: It is potentially a slighter greater possibility than a few

913
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:27,720
Speaker 11: weeks ago, but far from a certain pay.

914
00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 2: He was Ambassador to Russia and US Ambassador to Israel,

915
00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 2: Thomas Pickering. We thank you so much for the insights today.

916
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.

917
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:43,200
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast cat

918
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:46,680
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on appocarplay and enrout

919
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

920
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:55,279
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

921
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:57,520
Speaker 2: Thanks you for being with us on the Wednesday edition

922
00:50:57,600 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 2: of Balance of power here on Bloomberg's TV and Radio

923
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:04,120
Speaker 2: Kaylee CPI Day, which has more to do with politics

924
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 2: than ever as we get closer to Chicago, and of

925
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 2: course November with a couple of important speeches happening this

926
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:12,800
Speaker 2: week on the campaign trail. We got a lot of speeches, Kaylee,

927
00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 2: but these are ones we actually listen to for details.

928
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 2: Today it's Donald Trump Friday, it's Kamala Harris actual economic

929
00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:23,759
Speaker 2: plans that both o voters, so we can tell how

930
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 2: much difference there is here and whether there is a

931
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 2: plan to lower prices.

932
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 13: Yeah, and both of these speeches will be given from

933
00:51:29,080 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 13: the swing state of North Carolina, which is interesting. They're

934
00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 13: just two days apart, of course, But the question really

935
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:35,920
Speaker 13: is going to be how specific do they get on

936
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:38,400
Speaker 13: the policy that they want to pursue, and frankly, how

937
00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:41,080
Speaker 13: much overlap might there be? Is we know on at

938
00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 13: least two issues, the child tax credit, which Jade Vance

939
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 13: is now out saying he is in favor of expanding

940
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 13: and taxing or not taxing rather tipped income. Yes, right,

941
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 13: they agree, so where exactly? Knowing that this administration Harris

942
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 13: has been part of also has kept intact many of

943
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 13: the tariffs from the Trump administert where are the differences here?

944
00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:04,680
Speaker 2: You might get a little squinty eyed, as Kaylee likes

945
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 2: to say, trying to tell the difference here. Look, it's

946
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 2: not just the difference between these campaigns, Kaye. It's going

947
00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:13,520
Speaker 2: to be the difference between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

948
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:16,840
Speaker 2: Surely when she speaks on Friday, and now we're really

949
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 2: splitting hairs, potentially we have a lot to hear from them.

950
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:21,800
Speaker 13: And of course before we hear from Harris on Friday,

951
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 13: she will be sharing this stage which President Biden in

952
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:28,239
Speaker 13: Maryland tomorrow. World, they will be talking about their administration's

953
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:30,759
Speaker 13: efforts to lower costs for the American people in the

954
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 13: aftermath of today's inflation data. So it's a lot that

955
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 13: we're looking forward to, and I'm pleased to say joining

956
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 13: us to talk about it as we look ahead is

957
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 13: barat Rama Murti. He is Senior Advisor for Economic Strategy

958
00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 13: at the American Economic Liberties Project, also formerly Deputy Director

959
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:47,120
Speaker 13: of the National Economic Council at the White House. Barrot,

960
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:50,240
Speaker 13: always great to have you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

961
00:52:50,280 --> 00:52:52,640
Speaker 13: If we could first begin with the data today, obviously,

962
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 13: We heard some similar words from Joe Biden about it,

963
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:58,680
Speaker 13: that it does show progress, that prices are still too

964
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:02,359
Speaker 13: high when you see looking at the data, still stickiness

965
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:05,840
Speaker 13: in shelter costs, for example. Are you confident that prices

966
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 13: can get materially lower between now and November.

967
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:11,960
Speaker 5: Yeah.

968
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:14,759
Speaker 14: Look, I think that CPI is on a really good trajectory.

969
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 14: If you look at over the last three months, headline

970
00:53:17,000 --> 00:53:20,360
Speaker 14: CPI is up only zero point four percent. That's obviously

971
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:25,440
Speaker 14: actually below the Fed's target for annual inflation. The housing

972
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 14: number is obviously driving the vast majority of the inflation

973
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:31,440
Speaker 14: that we still have. Some of that is lagged data,

974
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 14: some of that does not reflect disinflation that's in the pipeline.

975
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:38,440
Speaker 14: So I actually think that it's a sign of should

976
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:41,759
Speaker 14: be a sign of optimism that housing is the overwhelming

977
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:45,719
Speaker 14: force here. But I think it's incumbent upon both candidates

978
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 14: to explain what they plan to do on housing. I

979
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 14: think on that front, the Biden administration and the Harris

980
00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:56,320
Speaker 14: campaign has talked a lot about putting significant federal dollars

981
00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:59,480
Speaker 14: into building new affordable housing supply, which is ultimately the

982
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:01,799
Speaker 14: medium term and long term solution to the house and

983
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:02,759
Speaker 14: cost problems that we have.

984
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:07,640
Speaker 2: Of course, what Kamala Harris could really use at this

985
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 2: point as lower interest rates, helping young people maybe get

986
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 2: a foothold in this housing market as policies move forward

987
00:54:15,040 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 2: to build more homes. Barat, I wonder what you think

988
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:23,040
Speaker 2: about this idea. You've actually worked in the White House

989
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:25,600
Speaker 2: with both of the people we're talking about here, Joe

990
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 2: Biden and Kamala Harris, the extent to which she needs

991
00:54:29,719 --> 00:54:32,400
Speaker 2: to find her own message when she speaks to the

992
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:36,280
Speaker 2: Economy on Friday, and maybe even find some sunlight between

993
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:39,719
Speaker 2: herself and Joe Biden to show a new approach at

994
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:41,960
Speaker 2: lowering prices. What could we hear on Friday.

995
00:54:43,719 --> 00:54:46,400
Speaker 14: I think ultimately what you're going to see is to

996
00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 14: go to the point that you were making as we

997
00:54:48,360 --> 00:54:51,719
Speaker 14: came into this segment, is to drive a contrast between

998
00:54:52,440 --> 00:54:56,279
Speaker 14: the Harris economic agenda and the Trump economic agenda. Just

999
00:54:56,320 --> 00:54:58,520
Speaker 14: equivval with one thing you said on a child tax credit.

1000
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:02,120
Speaker 14: It's great that jad Events has nominally expressed some support

1001
00:55:02,160 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 14: for that, but if you look at when the bill

1002
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 14: that actually expanded the child tax credit was before the

1003
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:10,879
Speaker 14: United States Senate, every single Republican senator voted against it

1004
00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 14: and denied us the ability to provide a little bit

1005
00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:16,760
Speaker 14: of tax relief to parents with children.

1006
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:19,560
Speaker 2: So do we actually know if Donald Trump supports that.

1007
00:55:19,600 --> 00:55:20,319
Speaker 2: He's never said that.

1008
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:22,800
Speaker 14: I would suspect that he doesn't, to be totally honest,

1009
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:26,280
Speaker 14: and that might be a bit of daylight between himself

1010
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:30,640
Speaker 14: and his vice president vice presidential nominee. And so, but

1011
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 14: I think what the Harris campaign is going to do,

1012
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:37,399
Speaker 14: I suspect is identify a few areas of emphasis where

1013
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:41,080
Speaker 14: there's a really sharp contrast with the Trump economic Agenda.

1014
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:44,439
Speaker 14: Number one, on taxes, it's not just the child tax

1015
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:48,240
Speaker 14: credit that we talked about. When it comes to fiscal

1016
00:55:48,320 --> 00:55:52,640
Speaker 14: responsibility and raising taxes on the very wealthy and large corporations.

1017
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:55,200
Speaker 14: The Trump plan is clear. It's a four point six

1018
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 14: trillion dollar tax cut that goes largely primarily to how

1019
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:02,319
Speaker 14: soulds making well over four hundred thousand dollars a year.

1020
00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:05,840
Speaker 14: The Harris economic Agenda, which comes out of the Biden

1021
00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:08,600
Speaker 14: Harris budget, is to raise some taxes on the very

1022
00:56:08,640 --> 00:56:11,239
Speaker 14: wealthy and large corporations, help bring down the deficit by

1023
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:13,680
Speaker 14: two trillion dollars over the next ten years, and at

1024
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:16,080
Speaker 14: the same time provides a middle class tax relief, something

1025
00:56:16,120 --> 00:56:19,479
Speaker 14: that's absent from the Trump economic plan. And so whether

1026
00:56:19,520 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 14: it's on taxes, whether it's on willingness to actually stand

1027
00:56:22,080 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 14: up to corporate actors who are squeezing American families, where

1028
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:28,239
Speaker 14: the vice president has a track record of that as

1029
00:56:28,239 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 14: Attorney general of California, Trump as president bent over backwards

1030
00:56:32,640 --> 00:56:34,760
Speaker 14: to do the bidding of corporations. And so I think

1031
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:37,840
Speaker 14: you'll see a few areas of sharp contrast, and I

1032
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:41,800
Speaker 14: think ultimately a case made by the Harris campaign that

1033
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:44,080
Speaker 14: they are being more responsive to the actual concerns of

1034
00:56:44,120 --> 00:56:44,920
Speaker 14: American voters.

1035
00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 13: So while you may see sharp contrast in some areas brought,

1036
00:56:49,160 --> 00:56:51,600
Speaker 13: there are at least similarities in others, including this idea

1037
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:54,520
Speaker 13: on the subject of taxes and the deficit about not

1038
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:58,600
Speaker 13: taxing tipped income. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

1039
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 13: estimates that not doing that would increase the deficit by

1040
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:05,600
Speaker 13: one hundred to two hundred billion dollars over ten years.

1041
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:08,760
Speaker 13: Is this actually good economic policy?

1042
00:57:09,520 --> 00:57:10,680
Speaker 14: I think again, you have to put all of this

1043
00:57:10,719 --> 00:57:14,120
Speaker 14: into the context of a broader fiscal plan, a broader budget,

1044
00:57:14,360 --> 00:57:17,080
Speaker 14: you know. I think when you put that plan alongside

1045
00:57:17,360 --> 00:57:20,480
Speaker 14: a policy to raise substantially more tax revenue from the

1046
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:23,760
Speaker 14: very wealthy and large corporations, and to ultimately drive down

1047
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 14: the budget deficit, which is what the Harris Plan, the

1048
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 14: Harris Biden budget it does versus the Trump agenda, where

1049
00:57:29,880 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 14: this additional one hundred or two hundred billion dollars in

1050
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:35,680
Speaker 14: tax cuts comes on top of a four point six

1051
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:39,640
Speaker 14: trillion dollar tax cut that primarily goes to the wealthy.

1052
00:57:40,080 --> 00:57:43,800
Speaker 14: You can see how one is a reasonable set of

1053
00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:47,280
Speaker 14: policies that puts America on a better fiscal track, and

1054
00:57:47,320 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 14: one would massively blow out the deficit on top of

1055
00:57:51,040 --> 00:57:53,720
Speaker 14: I should note the eight trillion dollars of deficit increase

1056
00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:57,120
Speaker 14: that you saw in the first Trump term.

1057
00:57:57,320 --> 00:58:01,000
Speaker 2: So on Friday, Kamala Harris gets on stage and says,

1058
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:03,840
Speaker 2: look at the last three years of progress we've made.

1059
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:09,600
Speaker 2: The Biden Harris economic proposal moves forward if you elect

1060
00:58:09,640 --> 00:58:12,920
Speaker 2: me as president. Because if you look at the CPI today,

1061
00:58:13,560 --> 00:58:18,040
Speaker 2: four months straight of easing inflation, everybody expects Rake cuts

1062
00:58:18,080 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 2: to start in September. This coincides pretty nicely with a

1063
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 2: November election, doesn't it.

1064
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1065
00:58:25,520 --> 00:58:27,920
Speaker 14: I've said before that I think you're you're hitting a

1066
00:58:27,960 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 14: patch of real economic momentum here with inflation clearly easing,

1067
00:58:32,600 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 14: where at this point I think the question for the

1068
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:36,480
Speaker 14: Fed in September is not whether they will cut, but

1069
00:58:36,480 --> 00:58:39,000
Speaker 14: whether they cut by twenty five basis points or fifty

1070
00:58:39,040 --> 00:58:41,360
Speaker 14: basis points. That's going to be an important moment where

1071
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:43,240
Speaker 14: I think it will send a signal to the American

1072
00:58:43,280 --> 00:58:46,680
Speaker 14: public we've officially turned the page on inflation. And so

1073
00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 14: there's a lot of momentum to say that.

1074
00:58:48,720 --> 00:58:52,600
Speaker 2: Though, can she I mean, because everyone's asking about drawing

1075
00:58:52,680 --> 00:58:55,000
Speaker 2: contrast with Joe Biden. What if she just gets up

1076
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:58,160
Speaker 2: there and says we won the war against inflation? Is

1077
00:58:58,160 --> 00:59:00,000
Speaker 2: that mission accomplished twenty twenty four.

1078
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:03,440
Speaker 14: I'm not sure if she's going to use that exact language,

1079
00:59:03,440 --> 00:59:05,640
Speaker 14: but I do think that she's going to be able

1080
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:08,720
Speaker 14: to ride a lot of positive economic data into the

1081
00:59:08,720 --> 00:59:12,680
Speaker 14: fall and into November. If everything stays on the current trajectory,

1082
00:59:12,720 --> 00:59:15,080
Speaker 14: that's going to be another boost to a campaign that's

1083
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:17,080
Speaker 14: already done very very well over the last couple of

1084
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:21,000
Speaker 14: weeks in building the case for it. And so I

1085
00:59:21,000 --> 00:59:23,880
Speaker 14: think what she has an opportunity to do is to

1086
00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:28,320
Speaker 14: try to explain to the American public how her economic

1087
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:30,720
Speaker 14: agenda is going to be responsive to the concerns that

1088
00:59:30,760 --> 00:59:32,920
Speaker 14: they are feeling in their in their lives today. Obviously,

1089
00:59:32,960 --> 00:59:34,840
Speaker 14: the cost of living is a big one, the cost

1090
00:59:34,920 --> 00:59:38,160
Speaker 14: of housing, the cost of childcare, the cost of higher education.

1091
00:59:38,640 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 14: But I also think part of it is who can

1092
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:46,800
Speaker 14: create a calm, predictable atmosphere for businesses to thrive it

1093
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:50,440
Speaker 14: And what we saw during the first Trump term was

1094
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:54,360
Speaker 14: was chaos and uncertainty that I think really put a

1095
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:58,600
Speaker 14: toll on the ability of businesses to conduct to do

1096
00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:02,440
Speaker 14: their work a aaily basis. And with the Harris administration,

1097
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:06,560
Speaker 14: I think you'll see a lot of regulatory predictability, a

1098
01:00:06,600 --> 01:00:10,919
Speaker 14: lot of working with the business community, especially the small

1099
01:00:10,920 --> 01:00:13,880
Speaker 14: business community, to make sure that they have the tools

1100
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:14,640
Speaker 14: that they need to grow.

1101
01:00:16,760 --> 01:00:19,680
Speaker 13: As we consider her economic policy, it is also pointing

1102
01:00:19,680 --> 01:00:23,040
Speaker 13: out she's been hit two on the border, specifically, an

1103
01:00:23,080 --> 01:00:27,480
Speaker 13: issue with which Republicans are charging that as borders are

1104
01:00:27,560 --> 01:00:31,760
Speaker 13: she essentially to summarize, really messed things up. Can we

1105
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:36,680
Speaker 13: separate migration immigration policy from economic policy now? Though, as

1106
01:00:36,720 --> 01:00:38,920
Speaker 13: Donald Trump is accusing her of taking a turn toward

1107
01:00:39,160 --> 01:00:41,720
Speaker 13: his kind of policy, hardening some of her language when

1108
01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:44,919
Speaker 13: it comes to migration, Knowing the impact that it has

1109
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:48,160
Speaker 13: had on growth on the labor market. Could that kind

1110
01:00:48,160 --> 01:00:51,000
Speaker 13: of more right wood shift or at least harsher shift

1111
01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:53,760
Speaker 13: when it comes to the border in migration, actually be

1112
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 13: something that takes an economic toll.

1113
01:00:57,600 --> 01:01:00,520
Speaker 14: Look, I think the President and the Vice President from

1114
01:01:00,520 --> 01:01:02,680
Speaker 14: the very beginning of the administration have been talking about

1115
01:01:02,680 --> 01:01:07,200
Speaker 14: the need for comprehensive immigration reform that involves more border security,

1116
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:10,320
Speaker 14: more funding for border patrol agents and so on, but

1117
01:01:10,400 --> 01:01:14,640
Speaker 14: also changes on legal immigration and a way of addressing

1118
01:01:14,640 --> 01:01:17,720
Speaker 14: all the folks, the dreamers that have been here in

1119
01:01:17,760 --> 01:01:20,520
Speaker 14: the United States and providing them with a pathway to citizenship.

1120
01:01:20,560 --> 01:01:26,240
Speaker 14: I think that's the right balance of steps to address

1121
01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:28,040
Speaker 14: some of the labor issues that you talked about, while

1122
01:01:28,080 --> 01:01:30,640
Speaker 14: at the same time making sure that we have a

1123
01:01:30,680 --> 01:01:33,760
Speaker 14: strong border and can enforce the rules that we have

1124
01:01:33,880 --> 01:01:38,360
Speaker 14: about crossing the border. I think that the Vice President,

1125
01:01:38,760 --> 01:01:41,600
Speaker 14: if you look at the actual data, the administration has

1126
01:01:41,600 --> 01:01:45,360
Speaker 14: done a good job of addressing migration across the border.

1127
01:01:45,920 --> 01:01:47,920
Speaker 14: We saw that the steps that the President took a

1128
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:50,640
Speaker 14: couple of months ago by executive order have led to

1129
01:01:50,800 --> 01:01:54,560
Speaker 14: a significant decrease in illegal crossings. But at the end

1130
01:01:54,560 --> 01:01:56,200
Speaker 14: of the day, this is an area where Congress needs

1131
01:01:56,240 --> 01:01:59,280
Speaker 14: to act. And we remember the Senate had a bipartisan

1132
01:01:59,320 --> 01:02:02,800
Speaker 14: proposal that the President and Vice President supported, and that

1133
01:02:03,000 --> 01:02:05,320
Speaker 14: Donald Trump came in at the last second to urge

1134
01:02:05,320 --> 01:02:08,240
Speaker 14: Republicans to vote against it, in my view, because you

1135
01:02:08,240 --> 01:02:10,240
Speaker 14: would rather campaign on the issue than try to solve

1136
01:02:10,240 --> 01:02:11,640
Speaker 14: the problem.

1137
01:02:12,400 --> 01:02:14,200
Speaker 13: Brot Finally, before we let you go, and I do

1138
01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:16,760
Speaker 13: ask you this question knowing that you spent years working

1139
01:02:16,840 --> 01:02:20,080
Speaker 13: for Senator Elizabeth Warren, who certainly has thoughts about this industry.

1140
01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:23,480
Speaker 13: But Politico is reporting there is a Crypto for Harris

1141
01:02:23,520 --> 01:02:26,160
Speaker 13: event happening tonight in which a number of lawmakers are

1142
01:02:26,160 --> 01:02:30,080
Speaker 13: going to attend, virtually including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

1143
01:02:30,120 --> 01:02:32,200
Speaker 13: I'm not sure you expect to hear the Vice president

1144
01:02:32,200 --> 01:02:35,720
Speaker 13: talk about crypto policy specifically on Friday when she's outlining

1145
01:02:35,760 --> 01:02:38,360
Speaker 13: economic policy. But do you expect she'll be very different

1146
01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:40,200
Speaker 13: than Joe Biden on that front?

1147
01:02:42,000 --> 01:02:43,640
Speaker 14: I honestly don't know the answer to that. It's not

1148
01:02:43,680 --> 01:02:46,160
Speaker 14: something that I've talked to her or her team. Would

1149
01:02:46,200 --> 01:02:50,000
Speaker 14: you encourage her to be I think generally speaking, we

1150
01:02:50,040 --> 01:02:53,000
Speaker 14: should have innovation in the United States and that we

1151
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:56,880
Speaker 14: should have regulatory policies that encourage responsible innovation. At the

1152
01:02:56,880 --> 01:02:59,360
Speaker 14: same time, my view on crypto has been that we

1153
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:02,120
Speaker 14: need to address us some of the scams that have

1154
01:03:02,200 --> 01:03:05,200
Speaker 14: been taking advantage of consumers and causing real financial harm.

1155
01:03:05,240 --> 01:03:07,400
Speaker 14: We also need to look at steps we can take

1156
01:03:07,440 --> 01:03:10,240
Speaker 14: to insulate the broader financial system from any issues they

1157
01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:12,760
Speaker 14: may arise in the crypto space, and we need to

1158
01:03:12,760 --> 01:03:16,160
Speaker 14: do something to address money laundering and other ways of

1159
01:03:16,240 --> 01:03:18,360
Speaker 14: using crypto to evade the rules that we have for

1160
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:20,400
Speaker 14: the rest of the financial system. I think that there

1161
01:03:20,400 --> 01:03:22,320
Speaker 14: are ways of doing that while at the same time

1162
01:03:22,480 --> 01:03:26,640
Speaker 14: creating an atmosphere that allows innovation to proceed. Obviously, the

1163
01:03:26,680 --> 01:03:28,680
Speaker 14: devil's and the details on how you strike that balance,

1164
01:03:28,720 --> 01:03:30,080
Speaker 14: but I think ultimately that should be the goal.

1165
01:03:32,040 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 2: Brod's great to have you back. Brought Rama Murdy now

1166
01:03:34,600 --> 01:03:38,320
Speaker 2: with the senior advisor, i should say, for economic strategy

1167
01:03:38,320 --> 01:03:42,680
Speaker 2: at the American Economic Liberties Project, formally advising the Biden

1168
01:03:42,720 --> 01:03:45,440
Speaker 2: White House on the economy. Barrot, Rama Murdy, thank you.

1169
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:53,440
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

1170
01:03:53,440 --> 01:03:56,400
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

1171
01:03:56,520 --> 01:03:59,080
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1172
01:03:59,160 --> 01:04:01,960
Speaker 2: us live every week day from Washington, DC at noontime

1173
01:04:02,040 --> 01:04:04,200
Speaker 2: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com