WEBVTT - Trump Tariffs Spark Retaliation, Ukraine Talks 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:10.560 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.520 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:18.520 Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:21.840 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:23.080 us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:26.960 So the headline's coming fast and furious from everywhere when 0:00:27.000 --> 0:00:28.160 it comes to political risk. 0:00:28.640 --> 0:00:30.080 Joining us now is Nathan Dean. 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:36.559 He's Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy a list Nathan, what is 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:38.080 the rhetoric that we're going to see out of the 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:42.720 White House this afternoon based on now Canada putting tariffs 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:45.880 on US deal on aluminum and the EU threatening retaliation 0:00:46.000 --> 0:00:46.400 as well. 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:48.120 I think it's going to. 0:00:48.120 --> 0:00:49.960 Be very similar to the truth social posts that we 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:52.479 saw from yesterday from President Trump and responding to the 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:55.920 Ontario premiere Doug Ford in terms of those tariffs or 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:58.240 at least the export taxes that they was putting on 0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:01.080 electricity to those one point five million Americans up in 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:03.520 Minnesota and New York, you know, And I think this 0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:05.440 is what you're gonna wait and you're gonna see this 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:08.679 exactly the same thing coming from EU, because look, you know, 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:10.880 we've always been telling our clients. When it comes to tariffs, 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:13.200 President Trump goes out there with these big statements and 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:16.520 that subsequently walks them back negotiates, and that doesn't really 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:19.679 see the fruition. However, over the last few days, we 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:23.080 begin to see that the you know, the small incremental 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:26.399 tariffs take place, the twenty percent tariff on China, you know, 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:30.080 the medals, the aluminum and steel tariffs on Canada just yesterday. 0:01:30.160 --> 0:01:33.200 So these tariffs are now coming into fruition. And so 0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:35.840 I think the writeric is going to continue. But we 0:01:35.880 --> 0:01:37.560 always have to just go back to the idea that 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:40.040 there's one person that decides whether these tariffs happen or not. 0:01:40.240 --> 0:01:42.280 It's President Trump. So you always have to just keep 0:01:42.280 --> 0:01:44.640 your mind open that he could potentially walk some. 0:01:44.720 --> 0:01:45.199 Of this back. 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:47.880 I've asked this before, I'll ask it again, And now 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:51.880 now it's on this issue of taris where are the Democrats? 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:53.440 Who's the voice? 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:56.000 Yeah, so they're still trying to figure out their voice. 0:01:56.040 --> 0:01:57.800 I mean, obviously there's been a lot of push in 0:01:57.880 --> 0:02:01.559 terms of from House Democrat trying to tell their Senate 0:02:01.600 --> 0:02:04.960 colleagues that they should vote no on this government funding 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:08.120 bill that's making its way through Congress, in response to DOJE, 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:11.519 in response to tariffs, just in response to President Trump's agenda. 0:02:12.080 --> 0:02:14.760 The Senate Democrats are actually meeting today. They have to 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:16.480 figure it out. There's going to need to be eight 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:19.519 votes for the Democrats on Friday, because Senator Ran Paul 0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:20.640 is going to vote no. 0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:23.160 Otherwise we're going to risk a government shutdown. 0:02:23.160 --> 0:02:25.640 And I just do not think the Senate Democrats have 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:30.600 a strategy yet in place that warrants what their response 0:02:30.639 --> 0:02:33.280 to President Trump will be. And as a result, you know, 0:02:33.360 --> 0:02:35.480 a lot of the news cycle continues to be dominated 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:36.840 by President Trump and his actions. 0:02:36.919 --> 0:02:38.480 I have to say, the fact that we could have 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:40.800 a government shutdown has not at all been on my radar. 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:43.000 That seems like the least thing, the last thing we 0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:44.440 got to worry about here when it comes to being 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:45.440 a market participant. 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:48.720 So no, like, where are we though, will it shut down? 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:49.239 Are we good? 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:50.119 Well? 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:53.440 Your view is absolutely correct from the mindset of those 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:55.440 who pay attention to the markets, because when it comes 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:59.040 to government shutdowns, there's very little impact to markets. I mean, 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:01.840 the thirty five days cut down that occurred under President 0:03:01.880 --> 0:03:05.040 Trump's first administration, markets went down and then subsequently came 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:06.840 back up. But where we are at the moment is 0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:09.480 yesterday the House Republicans passed a bill. It's not a 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:12.560 clean bill, but a clean ish bill, mostly clean but 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:14.440 has a lot of things in their Democrats don't like. 0:03:14.760 --> 0:03:17.119 But what Speaker Johnson did is he said, look, we've 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:17.720 passed the bill. 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:19.760 He sent the House home, everybody left town. 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.080 So now it's up to the Senate Democrats to decide 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:24.560 are we going to support this bill or are we 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:27.040 going to risk shutting the government down. And because the 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:29.840 House is gone, a shutdown will most likely occur. I 0:03:29.840 --> 0:03:32.240 think the Senate Democrats will ultimately take the deal. I 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:34.200 maybe out of consensus, out of that, but I just 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:36.360 do not think that the Senate Democrats right now are 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:39.360 aligned on their strategy. And just as a few minutes ago, 0:03:39.480 --> 0:03:43.760 Representative Alexandria Acasio Cortez was tweeting out that people should 0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:46.120 be calling the Senate Dems because it looks like, in 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:48.640 her words, they're going to start the cave. So I 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:50.520 don't think the government's going to shut down. But again, 0:03:50.560 --> 0:03:52.760 for those people who pay attention to the markets, there's 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:56.960 really no impact here. I mean, short term shutdown really 0:03:57.000 --> 0:03:59.720 even doesn't impact the equities like large defense contractors. 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:02.160 What's the sense of timing, Nathan, When will we get 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:05.000 a decision on a potential shutdown or what the Senate's 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:05.400 going to do. 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:09.560 I think tonight you'll start to see the comments from 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:13.160 the Democratic senators giving indication of their position. You know, 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:15.560 Senator John Fennerman has already come out and said he's 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:17.440 going to vote for the bill. But all these other 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:19.960 a lot of the other moderate Democrats who potentially could 0:04:20.000 --> 0:04:22.839 vote for this or keeping their powder dry, They're essentially saying, look, 0:04:22.839 --> 0:04:25.799 it's a choice of two bad choices President Trump's agenda, 0:04:25.960 --> 0:04:28.479 or we risk shutting the government down. But I don't 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:30.960 think the Democrats are going to try and surprise this 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:33.440 by Friday. I think we'll know either by late tonight 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:35.920 or early tomorrow where they're going, because look, at the 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:38.440 end of the day, it's not an easy choice for them, 0:04:38.560 --> 0:04:40.960 and the last thing they want, I think, in my opinion, 0:04:41.400 --> 0:04:43.480 is to surprise everybody and just say we haven't been 0:04:43.480 --> 0:04:46.240 saying anything for days and then oop, weights we're we're 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:48.520 not gonna vote for this, but you know, anything can happen. 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:50.680 We're in You know, these are times that a lot 0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:52.000 of people don't know what's going to happen. 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:55.280 What okay, let me say something crazy. 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:59.160 What I found really interesting was that we had Ontario 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:02.120 putting a REFFS on hydro power right, and then all 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:04.520 of a sudden moments later, like a day later, it 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:08.240 was taken off. And then now the negotiation has started 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:10.599 to happen between Ontario and the US. 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:13.680 What do we make of that. 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:15.120 Like do we make of the fact that, like any 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:18.680 retaliatory tariffs won't have any teeth because it's all a 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:21.240 negotiating ploy, and that Trump is going to get them 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:22.479 to the table no matter what. 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:26.680 Well, you know, I'll say, look, that's the primary objective 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:29.159 is to get them to the table and to negotiate. 0:05:29.560 --> 0:05:31.479 But also if you look at the Canadian steel and 0:05:31.520 --> 0:05:34.839 aluminum tariffs, you know President Trump's truth social statement said look, 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:37.719 we're going to fifty percent. Subsequently we're now at twenty 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:40.520 five percent, so that tariff did actually take place. But 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:43.839 you know, this process I think continues exactly how it's 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:46.720 been for the last few months. President Trump puts out 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.640 a statement, says we're going to do this, markets react 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:53.080 to it, there's a negotiation, sometimes just hours later it's 0:05:53.120 --> 0:05:57.440 walked back, and there's additional open doors and additional nuggets 0:05:57.480 --> 0:05:59.840 that says, maybe this isn't going to happen, but in 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:03.520 crementally tariffs are being put on place, that twenty percent 0:06:03.520 --> 0:06:06.800 tariff on China, for example. So you know, if investors 0:06:06.839 --> 0:06:10.279 have not already looked at the supply chain aspects of 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:12.880 the companies that they're looking at, they need to do 0:06:12.960 --> 0:06:15.640 so now because we can't say with one hundred percent 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:18.400 certainty that these tariffs aren't going to happen. So investors 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:21.320 need to be prepared for that supply chain disruption or 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:22.800 the tariff hit as a result of it. 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:25.760 All Right, Nathan, let's be a glass half full type 0:06:25.760 --> 0:06:28.600 of view here and say the government will not shut down. 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:32.400 What are the next couple of things on Congresses to 0:06:32.520 --> 0:06:32.960 do list? 0:06:33.000 --> 0:06:36.080 Do you think, Well, you know, Speaker Johnson is really 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:38.919 trying to push forward with this House Reconciliation package to 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:42.000 extend President Trump's tax cuts. This was going to cost 0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:44.640 around four point five trillion dollars to extend those. 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:45.720 Now they have to do it by the end of 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:46.039 the year. 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:48.760 If a government does shut down, nobody's allowed to work 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:51.359 on that, and so the Republicans not be able to 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:54.440 work on that until the government reopens. Now, assuming the 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:57.800 government reopens, Speaker Johnson even just said this morning that 0:06:57.839 --> 0:06:59.200 he hopes for all of this to be. 0:06:59.200 --> 0:06:59.960 Resolved by men. 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:02.120 I'm not exactly sure that they're going to be able 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:05.000 to get there, because even though the Republicans were unified 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:07.520 yesterday in terms of keeping the government open in terms 0:07:07.520 --> 0:07:10.560 of a budget, it was only a six month continuing resolution, 0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:13.320 and it was a Cleanish bill. That's much different than 0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:16.960 asking New York State Republicans are you going to support 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:18.840 not giving much in terms of salt. 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:21.120 Relief, or asking other folks are you going to. 0:07:21.040 --> 0:07:24.080 Support taxes on tips which potentially could drive the deficit 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:24.720 even higher. 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:26.400 So the Republicans have to figure out. 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:29.320 Because there's no Democrats involved in this, the Republicans are 0:07:29.320 --> 0:07:32.120 going to have to have some very strong and powerful conversations. 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:34.239 And I'm not exactly sure that's going to take place 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:36.560 in May. I think that's going to bleed throughout the summer. 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:39.320 But that work will continue next week, assuming the government 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:40.720 stays open again. 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:42.640 I was just at an energy conference in Houston for 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:45.440 a couple of days, and the theme is that CEOs 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:48.680 are really confused. People are not pulling projects, but they're 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:51.200 definitely pressing the pause button on many many things. 0:07:51.640 --> 0:07:54.040 Is the administration listening to CEOs? 0:07:55.080 --> 0:07:55.480 I think so. 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:58.120 I mean, obviously, the President Trump met with the Business 0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:01.680 Roundtable yesterday. This is a collection of large CEOs from 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:04.680 you know, Fortune five hundred companies, and you know, we 0:08:04.720 --> 0:08:07.080 heard the reporting that that was the message that President 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:09.720 Trump gave. But I would also say that President Trump 0:08:09.800 --> 0:08:12.240 is very very much a believer in his strategy at 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:14.280 the moment, and I don't think there's much of the 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:16.040 business community is going to be able to. 0:08:16.000 --> 0:08:17.160 Say to change his mind. 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:19.320 I think that it has to come from sticker shock 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:23.000 from prices, because prices are what got drove a lot 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:26.440 of voters to President Trump in the November elections, and 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:29.440 prices is something that a lot of American consumers, especially 0:08:29.480 --> 0:08:32.040 Americans that don't have access to the markets, that don't 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:35.160 have assets in the markets, want to see from President Trump. 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:37.720 And so I think that price discussion, as we'll see 0:08:37.720 --> 0:08:40.560 over the next few months, is what ultimately may change 0:08:40.600 --> 0:08:43.319 President Trump's mind. But then again, you also liked seeing 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:45.679 the stock market in the green, so you know, again, 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:47.240 it's just it's very hard to predict. 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:49.720 Did we get any meaningful news out of that meeting 0:08:49.800 --> 0:08:53.200 yesterday with the business leaders Nathan Now, not. 0:08:53.559 --> 0:08:55.040 That I would say to any of my clients. 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:56.440 I think it was just more of the same that 0:08:56.520 --> 0:08:59.560 you know, business leaders were saying, Look, we're looking for deregulation. 0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:02.480 Deregulation is not a magic wand it's going to take time. 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:04.080 I think there was a lot of sentiment around the 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:07.600 election around deregulation. They're looking for clarity on tariffs. I 0:09:07.600 --> 0:09:08.920 don't think you're going to get that. I think the 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:13.480 strategy of strong statements subsequently with negotiations, and then they're 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:16.680 looking for clarity on this tax debate, and you know 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:18.400 the problem with that is that it's just going to 0:09:18.480 --> 0:09:20.719 take a long time because you know, they have to 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:22.400 figure out how to pay for a four point five 0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:24.760 trillion in tax scuts or they have to figure out 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:27.280 a way to keep it as less impactful on the 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:29.760 deficit as possible. And so I don't think there was 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:31.360 a lot of clarity coming from the White House to 0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:34.400 the business leadership. I think it was business leadership talking 0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:35.480 points going to the White House. 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:37.640 How much do you think all this is currently reflected 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:39.679 in the equity prices are in equity prices. 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:42.560 I think it's beginning to be a little bit more 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:46.080 and more. I mean, because I think the realization is like, look, 0:09:46.120 --> 0:09:48.439 this isn't exactly turning out the way that I think 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:51.520 a lot of investors thought after the election in terms 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:54.080 of sentiment, you know, the tariff discussion. I think a 0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:56.400 lot of people have presumed that President Trump was going 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:58.680 to back down on it, and look, he may, but 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:01.760 President Trump is certainly asking some very difficult questions of 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:04.560 the market when it says, look, starting tonight at midnight, 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:06.760 I'm putting on a fifty percent tariff and then two 0:10:06.760 --> 0:10:10.000 hours later saying no, maybe not, We're going to negotiate instead. 0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:11.080 Markets don't like that. 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:13.840 So I think what we're seeing right now is just 0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:17.120 this uncertainty and per your point about you know, pausing 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:19.200 a lot of projects, I think a lot of investors 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.560 are just saying, look, we need clarity on what's going 0:10:21.640 --> 0:10:24.800 to happen here, otherwise we're going to begin to really 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:26.199 try and protect our positions. 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:29.280 They're not there yet. But if this uncertainty in. 0:10:29.240 --> 0:10:32.440 This like you know, volatility continues from the political landscape, 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:35.199 I wouldn't be surprised if you know, my investors react 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:37.040 in a different way in the. 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:38.400 Next few weeks. 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:41.360 Nathan, thanks so much. We appreciate that Nathan Dean are 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:44.920 man of reason. Nowt there in Washington, d C helps 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:49.120 us understand some of these policy moves coming out of Washington, DC. 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:52.840 Nathan Dean, senior policy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joining us 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:54.160 from Washington, d C. 0:10:56.000 --> 0:10:59.680 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.880 days at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarcklay and Android 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:06.199 Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 0:11:06.240 --> 0:11:09.360 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:12.320 Be broadcast to you live for Interactive Brooks Studio right 0:11:12.360 --> 0:11:15.040 here in Midtown Manhattan. You can also check us out 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:17.400 on YouTube dot com as well. All Right, yesterday, the 0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:19.960 US and Ukraine have reached a thirty day seaspire with 0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:23.280 Russia now it hinges on Russia's acceptance. While speaking to 0:11:23.360 --> 0:11:26.679 reporters at the White House, President Trump addressed that deal. 0:11:26.880 --> 0:11:29.280 Saying it's now up to Russia to agree. 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.800 Your friends agreed to it, and hopefully Russia. 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:33.280 Will agree to it. 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:37.480 We're going to beat with them later on today and tomorrow. 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:39.679 And hopefully we'll be able to wipe out a deal, 0:11:39.720 --> 0:11:41.400 but I think the CEASPI is very important. 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:44.000 If we can get Russia to do it, that'll be. 0:11:43.960 --> 0:11:47.559 Greaty All right, joining us now is Oliver Krook, Bloomberg 0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:50.800 Gear correspondent on these talks. He joins us from Berlin. 0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:52.880 All right, Oliver, what do we know? What is the 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:53.520 state of play? 0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:55.960 Yeah, so listen, it's is ceasfire agreement. 0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:57.719 We should just say cannot be agreed to by only 0:11:57.840 --> 0:11:59.560 sort of one set of parties. But we should say 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:01.760 that the Youans now finally got on board, and that 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:04.480 is not what they wanted to do even two weeks ago. Right, 0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:06.280 we were hearing from Zelensky in a number of top 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:09.920 Ukrainian officials before that massive blow up in the Oval Office, 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:11.600 saying that basically they do not want to come to 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:14.000 a conversation about a ceasefire. They want to come to 0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:17.920 a conversation about the lasting just peace. That obviously changed 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:22.040 after the United States posit its military equipment deliveries to Ukraine, 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:25.640 stopped giving them intelligence, all that sort of thing that 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:27.440 kicked off last week. And now they've come at the 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:29.360 table and it sounds like they have agreed with the 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:32.560 United States after those talks in Saudi Arabia with Secretary 0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:35.040 of State Mark Rubio to that thirty day seaspire. The 0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:38.280 US sees this as basically trying to create the conditions 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:41.360 under which you can negotiate that permanent peace agreement. This 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:44.240 thirty day seaspire would also include an exchange of prisoners 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:47.360 of war, release of civilian detainees, the return of the 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:51.360 forcibly transferred Ukrainian children, and really to put together these 0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:54.800 negotiating teams which haven't obviously had any contact between Russia 0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:57.040 and Ukraine since the beginning of the war, and that 0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.960 has led to the immediate resumption now of the un 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:03.760 of American military kit to Ukraine as well as intelligence. 0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:06.520 And you know, it has been just basically the United 0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:09.080 States and Ukraine. And now, as you were just saying, 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:11.800 you know, basically everything is in Putin's court right now 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:13.720 as to whether or not he's going to even entertain 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:14.800 these discussions. 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:17.800 And to that end, Oliver Bloomberg News has some reporting 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:21.360 out that Putin eyes way to truce terms, but with 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:22.640 his own conditions. 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:24.320 I'm not really sure what that means. 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:26.840 So maybe the broad question is a do we think 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:30.440 Putin's going to engage in this process right here now, 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:33.200 with this agreement, and what did we think he wants. 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:36.199 I suspect not just right here and now. 0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:38.400 I mean I think that forever, since the beginning of 0:13:38.400 --> 0:13:40.360 this war, for the last three years, time has been 0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:42.360 on the side of the Russians, So they have really 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:45.079 in no rush, particularly since they've sort of gained momentum 0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:46.160 on the battlefield. 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:46.600 Again. 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:48.439 That could mean a great many things. We've heard a 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:50.199 number of things from the Russians. They have said a 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:52.559 number of things that are basically non starters. They want 0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:55.240 to take basically all of the eastern regions of Ukraine, 0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:58.640 so that's lu Hansk, Donetsk, Zaporisha, and Kurzon. These are 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:01.400 not even territories that they fully occupy right now. So 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:04.440 this would mean even further concessions. They would want legal 0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:07.800 recognition of that. They would want Ukraine to basically abandon 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:09.319 its aims. 0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:09.800 To join NATO. 0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:12.480 They would say that also European troops a sort of 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:16.360 deterrent or peacekeeping forces with Ukraine are non starter. So 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:18.280 these are all things that the Russians have said in 0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:20.640 the past that they basically are non starters to any 0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:23.320 sort of agreement that begs the question of what really 0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:25.440 is in the interest of the Ukrainians or is this 0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:28.680 just going to be basically a pretense for the Americans 0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:31.520 to abandon Ukraine if they say, you know, they basically 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:33.960 cannot surmount the terms. What I think is interesting and 0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:35.800 this was probably the most interesting thing we got out 0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:38.800 of the press conference for Marco Rubio yesterday, saying that 0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:40.840 basically they hope that the Russians will sign the deal, 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:43.920 but if they do not, they'll know who the impediment 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:46.680 to peace will be. That then provokes this question, and 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:48.200 we don't really know the answer to this from the 0:14:48.240 --> 0:14:49.120 Trump administration. 0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:51.760 If the Russians refused to come to the table and. 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:53.840 The United States is dissatisfied about. 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:55.680 It, what is Trump prepared to do about it. 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:59.040 We've had some talk about potential financial market regulations and 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:02.640 potentially sanctions on banks and finance as well as fossil fuels. 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:04.640 We haven't really fleshed out that side of things. We 0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:07.600 know the sort of the difficult circumstances they're willing to 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:09.720 impose on Ukraine, but less so what they're willing to 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:10.920 impose upon Russia. 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:13.640 Does Europe have a seat at this particular. 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:16.200 Table, emphatically not so. 0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:18.600 I think the best that the Europeans can basically hope 0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:20.480 for US to get kind of an update at the 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:24.520 G seven Foreign ministers meetings that's happening right now in Canada. 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:26.280 But basically, no, they do not have a seat at 0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:28.280 the table as it stands. I mean, I think that 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:30.560 the US's plan, what they would like to see longer 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:34.280 term is the Europeans to take more security responsibility, obviously 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:36.720 in the continent, possibly in Ukraine. But again, this is 0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:39.480 a very thorny discretion even for the most hawkish voices 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:41.800 within Europe. You hear it from the Polish, they are 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:44.640 very reticent to ever commit any kind of troops, even 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:47.840 as peacekeeping forces within Ukraine. So that is sort of 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:50.840 a very difficult conversation have even nationally. So I think 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:52.640 that their sort of role in this has been sort 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:55.200 of ever diminishing, and I think, I suspect is not 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:56.760 going to increase anytime soon. 0:15:57.320 --> 0:16:00.840 Oliver, what are the prospects for maybe timing of a 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:04.760 potential meeting between mister Trump and Putin? 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:07.680 Yeah, so listen, I think that Trump would like to 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:10.520 see this happen sooner rather than later. I think again, 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:12.800 Putin is proceeding with sort of extreme caution. 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:15.000 They've got all this sort of groundwork sort of laid 0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:15.240 for it. 0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:17.120 They would like, we know, to have that meeting, or 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:19.640 Trump would like to have that meeting in Saudi Arabia. 0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:21.360 At this point, though, I think it's way too early 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.040 to tell when that could happen. We do know from 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:28.120 our reporting that Steve Wikoff, who's actually technically the sort 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:30.280 of special envoy for the Middle East but seems to 0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:33.680 be the kind of special envoy for ceasefires generally speaking, 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:35.680 he's going to be in Moscow later this week to 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:37.440 sort of get the ball rolling there. But again, I 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:38.960 think it's very a little bit too early to say 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:39.960 to give a timeline on that. 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:43.440 At this precise moment, where are we in ramping up 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:45.840 defense spending in Germany. 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:47.920 So listen, I think this is going to be This 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:50.120 was the kind of the bazooka that was dropped the 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:52.680 other week by the leader of the CDU who's going 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:54.680 to be the incoming chancellor of Frederick Mertz. Here they 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:57.080 were talking about basically performing the debt break, and that 0:16:57.240 --> 0:16:59.880 is a huge deal here in Germany. The debt break 0:16:59.920 --> 0:17:02.160 is something that's not just a law within Germany. This 0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:04.760 is part of the German constitution. They put it in 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:07.720 in two thousand and nine after the financial crisis. 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:09.920 What's interesting is Mertz ran on a. 0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:12.800 Platform basically saying that they will not reform the debt break, 0:17:12.800 --> 0:17:13.280