WEBVTT - Sam Altman Returns as OpenAI CEO Amid Chaos

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<v Speaker 2>All right, folks, speaking of headlines, it's been fast and

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<v Speaker 2>furious over the last almost five days, and we finally

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<v Speaker 2>have an answer to will he or won't he? And

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<v Speaker 2>we are talking about Sam Altman because he is returning

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<v Speaker 2>to lead Open AI. If you're keeping track. It's been

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<v Speaker 2>fewer than five days after he was pushed out of

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<v Speaker 2>one of the world's most valuable startups, setting off a

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<v Speaker 2>shock back and forth trauma that transfixed Silicon Valley, and

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<v Speaker 2>I got to be honest, all of us and certainly

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<v Speaker 2>the global AI industry just kind of watching the play

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<v Speaker 2>by play here.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, not everything is exactly the same as last Friday

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<v Speaker 1>before Altman was fired. There are some governance changes. There's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be an initial board. It's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>led by Brett Taylor, the former co co of Salesforce.

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<v Speaker 1>Larry Summers is going to be a director, Thearry's former

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<v Speaker 1>US Treasury Secretary. Also, we should note a paid contributor

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<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg TV and existing member Adam DiAngelo, the co

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<v Speaker 1>founder and CEO of the question and answer site Cora.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, so let's get two guys who've been all

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<v Speaker 2>over the story of the last one hundred and twenty hours.

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<v Speaker 2>Tom Giles back with us, executive editor at Bloomberg Technology.

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<v Speaker 2>He has been NonStop, name on no fewer than thirty

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<v Speaker 2>eight stories and headlines in the last five days, although

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<v Speaker 2>I'm guessing there could be even more, a lot more

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<v Speaker 2>he's on Zoom in San Francisco. Van Deep Singh is

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<v Speaker 2>here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. He's senior Tech

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<v Speaker 2>industry analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. P two has authored a

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<v Speaker 2>handful of reports in the last few days about the

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<v Speaker 2>implications of this drama. So you guys are in the

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<v Speaker 2>thick of it, Hey, Tom, let me start with you.

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<v Speaker 2>Was this the best outcome?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, if you're Microsoft it, you know certainly they are

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<v Speaker 4>a winner in this equation. This is a company that

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<v Speaker 4>is the biggest shareholder in open Ai, and they were

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<v Speaker 4>also poised to hire Sam Altman should when he initially

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<v Speaker 4>was fired and then not rehired and they hired someone else.

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<v Speaker 4>And here Microsoft said all right, well we'll take him,

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<v Speaker 4>and suddenly about seven hundred of their seven hundred and seventy.

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<v Speaker 5>Employees said well, we're going to leave too.

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<v Speaker 4>So Microsoft comes away as a real big winner here.

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<v Speaker 4>I'd say Sam Altman and his inner circle also are

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<v Speaker 4>going to be big winners here in so far as

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<v Speaker 4>they come back to open ai, and they're going to

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<v Speaker 4>push for a real reimagining and accelerating reimagining of what

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<v Speaker 4>this company is, what it stands for. And how quickly

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<v Speaker 4>it pushes toward commercialization and profitability and running itself like

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<v Speaker 4>a business. This is a company that started as a

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<v Speaker 4>nonprofit tasked with the exploration the scientific exploration of artificial intelligence,

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<v Speaker 4>and it certainly is still doing that.

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<v Speaker 5>But what you've seen Sam do over the years is

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<v Speaker 5>push it further and further into the direction of being

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<v Speaker 5>a business and driving business that's growing, attracting investors, bringing

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<v Speaker 5>in creating products, and lining up customers, and those things

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<v Speaker 5>sometimes are at.

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<v Speaker 4>Lockerheads with something that's more of a scientific philosophical approach.

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<v Speaker 5>To the exploration of artificial intelligence, and that thing really

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<v Speaker 5>came to a head that is firing on Friday.

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<v Speaker 4>So now he comes back, and I think there's going

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<v Speaker 4>to be an accelerated reimaginating, reimagining what this company is fascinating.

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<v Speaker 2>So, Man, deeve comean and you've been writing a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of research. Microsoft and Open Eye. Do they need each other?

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<v Speaker 2>Why or why not?

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, they absolutely need each other. And the last

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<v Speaker 6>week has shown how much Microsoft is invested in AI

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<v Speaker 6>to the point that you know they were willing to

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<v Speaker 6>take the entire staff and you know, have them as employees. Look,

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<v Speaker 6>I mean the original if you go back, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>one year when Microsoft originally partnered with open EI. The

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<v Speaker 6>idea was they wanted open Ai to use a Microsoft

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<v Speaker 6>Azure's compute capacity. They wanted, you know, to be that

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<v Speaker 6>early cloud player that positioned itself well in generative AI.

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<v Speaker 6>And they did that. It worked. Then they standardize everything,

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<v Speaker 6>you know, their co pilots their search around open AI.

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<v Speaker 6>When you look at the competitors, Amazon and Google, the

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<v Speaker 6>two competitors in cloud, the growth has slowed down in

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<v Speaker 6>cloud this year because they didn't have that generative AI

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<v Speaker 6>Open Ai aspect of it. And I think it's interesting

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<v Speaker 6>given how much you know, Microsoft benefited this thing happening

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<v Speaker 6>so suddenly really caught them off card and they've probably

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<v Speaker 6>helped steady the ship. But I still think there's a

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<v Speaker 6>lot more to common in terms of transparency why it happened.

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<v Speaker 6>Were they any safety issues that the other board members fell.

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<v Speaker 6>Obviously the employees didn't believe in the earlier board, so

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<v Speaker 6>the board had to change. But I still think there's

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<v Speaker 6>more answers that will come out in due course of time.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and I think that reporting is going to continue

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<v Speaker 1>to trickle out. So no sleep for either of you

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<v Speaker 1>guys over the Thanksgiving holiday, although that's not what I

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<v Speaker 1>wish for you. Hey, Tom, come on back in here.

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<v Speaker 1>Carol asked you about the winners here? What about the

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<v Speaker 1>losers here? Are there any competing companies who who you know,

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<v Speaker 1>could have had an opportunity to kind of seize the moment,

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<v Speaker 1>But now that Altman is back at open ai, they

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<v Speaker 1>lost that opportunity.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think if you are a competing company and

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<v Speaker 4>you were, you know, looking on Friday afternoon the minute

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<v Speaker 4>he got fired, I am sure that he was being

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<v Speaker 4>inundated with offers because people see him as a true visionary.

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<v Speaker 4>They see him as the driving force behind the successes

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<v Speaker 4>that open ai has has cranked out over the last

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<v Speaker 4>several years, but in particular in the last year and

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<v Speaker 4>the pace at which those are coming out. But what

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<v Speaker 4>man Deep said was was really true. When when Microsoft

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<v Speaker 4>partnered with open ai in such a dramatic way to

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<v Speaker 4>the tune of ten plus billion dollars, that really catapulted

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<v Speaker 4>them to the forefront ahead of people like Google.

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<v Speaker 5>Companies like Google, which should have been, for all intents and.

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<v Speaker 4>Purposes, the true leader in artificial intelligence, they had deep mind,

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<v Speaker 4>they had their own house that this Deep Mind is.

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<v Speaker 5>The artificial intelligence startup that they.

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<v Speaker 4>Bought in the UK, which is really at the cutting

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<v Speaker 4>edge of this research. They had their own in house

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<v Speaker 4>AI effort and they just moved too slowly on generative AI.

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<v Speaker 4>And so when you saw Microsoft really strengthen his partnership

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<v Speaker 4>with open AI, that really lit a fire under Google.

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<v Speaker 5>And Google remains on its back foot in all of this.

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<v Speaker 4>And you're going to see if man Eve said, You're

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<v Speaker 4>going to see Microsoft incorporate not only benefit from open

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<v Speaker 4>AI because of the computing power and its use of

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<v Speaker 4>their cloud services, but also incorporating generative AI into more

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<v Speaker 4>and more of their products and making those products even

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<v Speaker 4>being this search engine that none of us uses, maybe

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<v Speaker 4>even making being more relevant. Not to mention what they

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<v Speaker 4>do to their business products that are the real lifeblood

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<v Speaker 4>of Microsoft's revenue stream.

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<v Speaker 2>Come on in man No, and that's a risk, right.

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<v Speaker 6>So if you look at the Amazon and Google approach,

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<v Speaker 6>they want to develop their own large anglid model, and

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<v Speaker 6>you know all their products will be driven off of

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<v Speaker 6>their own large anguage model. Open the Eye is still

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<v Speaker 6>an independent entity. Granted Microsoft has a forty nine percent steak,

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<v Speaker 6>but tomorrow, if things fall apart, and you know, again

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<v Speaker 6>Sam is back running the company, so you would hope

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<v Speaker 6>things stabilize, but that's a big risk for Microsoft not

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<v Speaker 6>having its own large, languid model.

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<v Speaker 2>I feel like, you know, we kidded yesterday that it

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<v Speaker 2>was TBD, and I still feel like there's still TBD

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<v Speaker 2>to be you know, kind of in this story in

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<v Speaker 2>terms of what happens with Open Eye AI in the future,

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<v Speaker 2>or whether or not somebody big comes out and is

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<v Speaker 2>a real challenger to that company.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know if there's anyone out there who.

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<v Speaker 6>There is Anthropic, I mean, is that Open the Eye

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<v Speaker 6>employees who started that.

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<v Speaker 1>Carol was talking about it earlier today.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, and both Google and Amazon have taken a steak

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<v Speaker 6>in the company, so just.

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<v Speaker 1>That So it's amazing because they're sort of like these

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I don't want to call them ponds, but

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<v Speaker 1>they're like these avatars of the larger companies that are duking.

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<v Speaker 2>They used to call Tiger cubs, you know, off of

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Tiger Management.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, and the reason why Anthropic was started.

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<v Speaker 7>Because the co founders felt.

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<v Speaker 2>Exactly, yeah, guys, listen, we have to go We're gonna

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<v Speaker 2>continue with this, no doubt about it, get some sleep,

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<v Speaker 2>can't wait to see all of the research and reporting

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<v Speaker 2>that continues to come, certainly from Tom Giles and the

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Technology team, and of course mandates saying over at

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Intelligence.

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<v Speaker 3>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 3>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on

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<v Speaker 3>or watch us Live on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 2>To a couple of stories on the Bloomberg Today. One

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<v Speaker 2>was about how clean energy funds are dirt. They basically

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<v Speaker 2>slumped roughly thirty percent this year, after losing almost five

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<v Speaker 2>percent of their value in twenty twenty two and a

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<v Speaker 2>whopping twenty three percent in twenty twenty one. The renewables

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<v Speaker 2>industry has been battered by rising interest rates, which have

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<v Speaker 2>been a special damaging for new solar projects, and disappointing

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<v Speaker 2>earnings caused largely by those higher capital costs and then

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<v Speaker 2>lower profit margins.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't get it for a few reasons. Yeah, we'll

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<v Speaker 1>get into it, but we know this is the direction

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<v Speaker 1>that things are going to go. We know that the

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<v Speaker 1>Biden administration has unleashed a torreative funds in the Inflation

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<v Speaker 1>Reduction Act. So anyway, you know, that's kind of confounding

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<v Speaker 1>to me.

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<v Speaker 2>Especially in a year that's on track to be the

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<v Speaker 2>hottest year yet. We're not quite at the end of

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<v Speaker 2>the year, but pretty much pointing there. So let's get

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<v Speaker 2>to it with Rich Lesser see what he has to

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<v Speaker 2>say about all of this, his global chair at Boston

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<v Speaker 2>Consulting Group, headed to the upcoming Global Climate Conference COP

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<v Speaker 2>twenty eight in Dubai. Riches on zoom in Boston. Rich,

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<v Speaker 2>Nice to have you here with Tim and myself. It's

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<v Speaker 2>been hard to be anything esg tell us though, specifically

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<v Speaker 2>about companies and what they are doing when it comes

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<v Speaker 2>to sustainability and climate change goals.

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<v Speaker 7>So it's a pleasure to be with you, Carol and Tim. Look,

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<v Speaker 7>I think corporate efforts on climate and sustainability continue to

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<v Speaker 7>move forward. We see commitments to science based targets growing,

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<v Speaker 7>We see investments in many places growing. Many of the

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<v Speaker 7>leaders in this space have continued their agendas. But as

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<v Speaker 7>your intro pointed out, it is a more challenging time,

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<v Speaker 7>particularly in the US, because of the various uncertainties the

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<v Speaker 7>economics and particularly interest rates and the recent baut of inflation,

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<v Speaker 7>which is coming down but still left capital more expensive,

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<v Speaker 7>the political uncertainties inside the US, the regulatory uncertainties with

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<v Speaker 7>the SEC proposal. So while it's encouraging to see the

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<v Speaker 7>actions of a number of companies, we do not have

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<v Speaker 7>as much broad based action as we need from governments

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<v Speaker 7>or from businesses at this point. Obviously, IRA is a

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<v Speaker 7>bright spot in that, as is some of the actions

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<v Speaker 7>in Europe and other countries. We have a long way

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<v Speaker 7>still to go, and we're not on track for what

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<v Speaker 7>the world needs.

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<v Speaker 1>So what gets us on track for what the world's

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<v Speaker 1>world needs is it sort of a whole of government approach,

0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:05.880
<v Speaker 1>cooperation across different nations.

0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:09.360
<v Speaker 7>Well, that will really help. I mean, we don't know

0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:11.920
<v Speaker 7>what will come out of this cup, but there's some

0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:17.319
<v Speaker 7>opportunities that could be substantial in energy and heavy emitting

0:12:17.360 --> 0:12:20.840
<v Speaker 7>industries and food and agriculture, in finance, so there are

0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:23.960
<v Speaker 7>a number of areas that could be encouraging areas of progress.

0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:26.240
<v Speaker 7>I don't think we'll be at the end of the

0:12:26.360 --> 0:12:28.559
<v Speaker 7>same we've solved everything we haven't been for the prior

0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:31.360
<v Speaker 7>twenty seven cops, we won't be at this one. But

0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.200
<v Speaker 7>I think we could meaningfully move forward. But then there's

0:12:34.200 --> 0:12:38.679
<v Speaker 7>the actions that individual countries take, whether it's around support

0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:43.040
<v Speaker 7>for new technologies, finding ways not necessarily with a carbon tax,

0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:46.199
<v Speaker 7>but other ways to put a price on carbon, getting

0:12:46.400 --> 0:12:50.200
<v Speaker 7>addressing permitting issues which are such an inhibitor, using government

0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:53.720
<v Speaker 7>procurement itself as a lever to accelerate progress. And then

0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:56.680
<v Speaker 7>there's a lot of corporate actions that are possible, not

0:12:56.840 --> 0:13:00.120
<v Speaker 7>just inside the four walls of the individual company, but

0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:02.560
<v Speaker 7>what it does in its supply chain, how it supports

0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:06.520
<v Speaker 7>it customers, how it works together with others in their sectors,

0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:10.200
<v Speaker 7>whether it's on labeling, transparency, or finding new sources of

0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:12.920
<v Speaker 7>supply for the whole sector. There are lots of ways

0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:15.720
<v Speaker 7>to make progress that we're using to some degree. We

0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:16.720
<v Speaker 7>need to go much further.

0:13:17.120 --> 0:13:19.160
<v Speaker 2>Tell me out here, though. There are companies who put

0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:27.679
<v Speaker 2>out sustainability goals, missions commitments, and then there's governments who

0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:30.520
<v Speaker 2>say you got to do this by twenty twenty something

0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:33.480
<v Speaker 2>or whatever, or twenty thirty or twenty forty. What is

0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:36.840
<v Speaker 2>it that really ultimately moves the needle for me? It's

0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:39.280
<v Speaker 2>terror I feel like it was terrifying to see some

0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:41.040
<v Speaker 2>of the headlines or it'll be in New York with

0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:45.160
<v Speaker 2>orange skies, or to be day after day.

0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:48.200
<v Speaker 1>Worried about day based flooding in your basement because you

0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:50.840
<v Speaker 1>know every three years there's sort of a once in

0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:52.880
<v Speaker 1>a century exactly.

0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:57.320
<v Speaker 2>Rainstorm exactly, so exactly those things terrify me and feel like, Okay,

0:13:57.320 --> 0:13:59.160
<v Speaker 2>we've got to be doing something different. So what is

0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:02.040
<v Speaker 2>it that ultimately moves the needle? Because I feel like

0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:04.720
<v Speaker 2>commitments and goals, I don't know that you really have

0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:06.480
<v Speaker 2>to ultimately abide by them.

0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:11.520
<v Speaker 7>So obviously, what makes it so much easier to go

0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:15.360
<v Speaker 7>faster is when doing the right thing as regards to

0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:19.880
<v Speaker 7>climate and sustainability aligns closely with your own business economics

0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:23.400
<v Speaker 7>to drive sustained business performance. I mean, that's the magic

0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:27.280
<v Speaker 7>formula that allows everybody to invest fast. That's why things

0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:32.040
<v Speaker 7>like IRA were so important because for many types of investments,

0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:35.360
<v Speaker 7>it fundamentally takes the economics from a place where it

0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 7>didn't make financial sense to where it does. But there's

0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:41.960
<v Speaker 7>still many, many parts of the economy where IRA is

0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:43.000
<v Speaker 7>a step in the right direction.

0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:45.560
<v Speaker 2>You're talking about the Inflation Reduction Act passed in twenty

0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:48.920
<v Speaker 2>twenty two, where there was a lot of investing into

0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:53.200
<v Speaker 2>domestic energy production and also the promotion of clean energy,

0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:56.920
<v Speaker 2>So there was money committed to this mission.

0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:01.920
<v Speaker 7>That's exactly right. The IRA bill set aside four hundred billion,

0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:05.360
<v Speaker 7>but uncapped, and it will likely be much higher, both

0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:08.880
<v Speaker 7>to support the broader energy transition that we need in

0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:12.520
<v Speaker 7>the US, but also to support new technologies that would

0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:15.760
<v Speaker 7>encourage us to lower the cost of those technologies, build scale,

0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:19.760
<v Speaker 7>do other things. But still, in many, many cases, the

0:15:19.880 --> 0:15:22.400
<v Speaker 7>economics aren't as clear as they need to be on

0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:24.000
<v Speaker 7>shifting to new technology.

0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:26.880
<v Speaker 2>The why aren't they? Why aren't they? Why aren't they?

0:15:26.960 --> 0:15:29.120
<v Speaker 2>Is it because they are still more expensive? Or is

0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:31.000
<v Speaker 2>it that governments.

0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.720
<v Speaker 7>Makes still more expensive? Yeah, I mean if you're trying

0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:35.360
<v Speaker 7>to make steel or aluminum or cement, or fly an

0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:39.400
<v Speaker 7>airplane or do a whole range of things. The technologies

0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:42.880
<v Speaker 7>that would allow you to decarbonize now exist, but those

0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:47.520
<v Speaker 7>technologies are often substantially more expensive than the technologies build

0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:50.640
<v Speaker 7>around the basic fossil fuel economy. The good news is

0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:55.080
<v Speaker 7>IRA has fundamentally changed that economic equation for some of

0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:58.800
<v Speaker 7>those things. That's why you see so much investment coming

0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:02.360
<v Speaker 7>into the US from US companies but from around the world.

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:05.640
<v Speaker 7>It was a very meaningful bill, but we need to

0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:08.640
<v Speaker 7>be ready to go further. And I think that if

0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:11.960
<v Speaker 7>we can go further, we can accelerate progress. And I

0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:16.720
<v Speaker 7>think cop is one of the opportunities on everything from

0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:20.880
<v Speaker 7>food and agriculture to the leakage of methane to heavy

0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:24.600
<v Speaker 7>industries that are really challenged to decarbonize, where we need

0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:26.960
<v Speaker 7>agreements and we need the world to come together that

0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:30.200
<v Speaker 7>we need to make it easier. Just as a final point,

0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:33.120
<v Speaker 7>a lot of the challenge will be in the global South,

0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:35.800
<v Speaker 7>will be in low and middle income countries. That if

0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:39.440
<v Speaker 7>it's hard for play the richer part of the world

0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:41.640
<v Speaker 7>to afford the capital and deal with inflation, you can

0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:44.600
<v Speaker 7>imagine how hard that is in other parts of the world.

0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:46.880
<v Speaker 7>And there's a lot that we can do to make

0:16:46.920 --> 0:16:50.760
<v Speaker 7>the financing easier and make it more affordable to accelerate

0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:55.000
<v Speaker 7>that decarbonization. And that's where a lot of carbon emissions

0:16:55.040 --> 0:16:59.080
<v Speaker 7>are growing because those companies those countries are adding energy

0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:01.080
<v Speaker 7>infrastructure to populations.

0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:04.320
<v Speaker 1>Hey, Rich, what's the relationship between the price of a

0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:09.119
<v Speaker 1>barrel of oil and investments that are made in decarbonizing,

0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:12.520
<v Speaker 1>Because right now we're seeing oil at seventy six dollars

0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:16.159
<v Speaker 1>a barrel compared to you know where things were, gosh,

0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:18.640
<v Speaker 1>just may have come down a line, you know, may

0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:20.760
<v Speaker 1>of twenty twenty two or over one hundred and twenty

0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:23.600
<v Speaker 1>dollars a barrel, So explain the relationship.

0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:29.200
<v Speaker 7>Look, it cuts both ways. The good news is if

0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:32.119
<v Speaker 7>people are confident that oil will stay at a reasonably

0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:36.680
<v Speaker 7>high price, then that makes the competing low carbon technologies

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:41.080
<v Speaker 7>look even more attractive. So in many ways, when fossil

0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:43.719
<v Speaker 7>fuel prices are higher and people believe they're going to

0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:46.920
<v Speaker 7>stay higher, then when they run their calculations of should

0:17:46.960 --> 0:17:51.919
<v Speaker 7>we invest in lower emissions technologies, those investments look smarter.

0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:56.280
<v Speaker 7>On the flip side, obviously, that helps people that are

0:17:56.320 --> 0:17:59.240
<v Speaker 7>in the industry, in the energy economy, in fossil fuels

0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:01.199
<v Speaker 7>at a you know, make a lot of money in

0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:04.440
<v Speaker 7>that space, and some of that money has been diverted

0:18:04.840 --> 0:18:09.400
<v Speaker 7>into new technologies and into decarbonizing technologies, but not as

0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:12.640
<v Speaker 7>you know, we need much more, much more. We're underfinancing

0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:16.320
<v Speaker 7>the global transformation by probably two trillion dollars a year,

0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:18.280
<v Speaker 7>so real money needs to go into it.

0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:20.359
<v Speaker 2>Just got about twenty five seconds left here, rich, So

0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:22.919
<v Speaker 2>if the economy softens a little bit, will it make

0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:23.679
<v Speaker 2>it even harder?

0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.920
<v Speaker 7>Sure, uncertainty makes it harder. The more people feel confident

0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:31.679
<v Speaker 7>that the economic road ahead is good, the more confident

0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:34.480
<v Speaker 7>they are to invest in their future, and decarbonizing the

0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:36.920
<v Speaker 7>world is probably the most important investment we need to make.

0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:38.760
<v Speaker 2>All right, Gonna leave it on that note, Hey, Rich,

0:18:38.800 --> 0:18:42.040
<v Speaker 2>thank you so much. Happy Thanksgiving. Rich Lesser, he's global

0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:45.359
<v Speaker 2>chair at Boston Consulting Group, and as we mentioned earlier,

0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:48.120
<v Speaker 2>headed to the upcoming Global Climate Conference COP twenty eight

0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:51.280
<v Speaker 2>in Dubai, and you certainly made some references to some

0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:52.720
<v Speaker 2>of what's going to be going on there.

0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:57.080
<v Speaker 3>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:18:57.080 --> 0:19:00.199
<v Speaker 3>live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter here on

0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:03.960
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0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:07.199
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0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:11.040
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0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:12.800
<v Speaker 2>Well.

0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:16.080
<v Speaker 1>Around one thousand nurses at hospitals in Wichita, Kansas are

0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.880
<v Speaker 1>planning a one day strike in December over staffing issues

0:19:18.880 --> 0:19:21.240
<v Speaker 1>and what they claim are unsafe conditions. Another more than

0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:24.040
<v Speaker 1>five hundred nurses just outside of Chicago went on strike

0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:27.080
<v Speaker 1>over what they say we're unfair labor practices and then Carol,

0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:29.800
<v Speaker 1>a five day strike of more than thirteen hundred nurses

0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:32.280
<v Speaker 1>in Washington ended over the weekend. They were looking for

0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:34.679
<v Speaker 1>more staffing, higher pay, and better patient safety.

0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:37.680
<v Speaker 2>Sounds like they want different conditions, better conditions. These strikes

0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:40.280
<v Speaker 2>are all on top of the largest ever healthcare work

0:19:40.320 --> 0:19:43.560
<v Speaker 2>stoppage that was happening in October when more than seventy

0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:47.400
<v Speaker 2>five thousand Kaiser permanent day workers went on a three

0:19:47.480 --> 0:19:51.040
<v Speaker 2>day strike accusing management of refusing to bargain in good

0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:53.920
<v Speaker 2>faith over the short staffing issue. Well, needless to say,

0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:56.320
<v Speaker 2>healthcare workers across the country, really around the world, to

0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:59.800
<v Speaker 2>be fair, are feeling under pressure when it comes to burnout,

0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:03.040
<v Speaker 2>shortage of resources, pay, and more so, Tim, you got

0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:05.960
<v Speaker 2>to ask, what's the solution because we need healthcare workers.

0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:07.320
<v Speaker 1>Well, there are a lot of people working to find

0:20:07.359 --> 0:20:10.360
<v Speaker 1>a solution right now. Aloha McBride is EY Global Health

0:20:10.440 --> 0:20:14.199
<v Speaker 1>Leader for EY. The company recently came out with a

0:20:14.280 --> 0:20:16.719
<v Speaker 1>study based on more than one hundred interviews with healthcare

0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:20.000
<v Speaker 1>executives and clinicians in eleven countries, and what they're trying

0:20:20.040 --> 0:20:22.480
<v Speaker 1>to do is get to a better model. Aloha joins

0:20:22.520 --> 0:20:25.520
<v Speaker 1>us right now on Zoom from Lansdown, Virginia. Lohaw, good

0:20:25.520 --> 0:20:28.000
<v Speaker 1>to have you with us this afternoon. How would you

0:20:28.080 --> 0:20:31.119
<v Speaker 1>characterize the state of the healthcare worker, not just in

0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:32.359
<v Speaker 1>the US, but around the world.

0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:36.520
<v Speaker 8>Thank you so much for having me on the program. Listen,

0:20:36.800 --> 0:20:40.119
<v Speaker 8>I can tell you we saw these results across eleven countries,

0:20:40.160 --> 0:20:42.720
<v Speaker 8>and what you were just talking about is exactly what

0:20:42.760 --> 0:20:47.760
<v Speaker 8>we saw. This feeling of no control, a lack of autonomy,

0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:53.760
<v Speaker 8>being burdened with administration, and really feeling a moral injury

0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:59.280
<v Speaker 8>around real concerns for their patients' safety is really prevalent

0:20:59.359 --> 0:21:02.479
<v Speaker 8>across the glows. I mean we're talking in every single country.

0:21:02.520 --> 0:21:04.320
<v Speaker 8>We saw those themes loud and clear.

0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:08.679
<v Speaker 2>So is it something in particular coming off the pandemic

0:21:09.040 --> 0:21:12.440
<v Speaker 2>where the trends already starting heading into the pandemic? Give us,

0:21:12.520 --> 0:21:13.760
<v Speaker 2>give us some clarity on that.

0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:17.439
<v Speaker 8>We've known for a while that we were going to

0:21:17.480 --> 0:21:21.560
<v Speaker 8>be seeing some workforce shortages in the healthcare arena, starting

0:21:21.600 --> 0:21:24.520
<v Speaker 8>way back in probably twenty eighteen. We were beginning to

0:21:24.600 --> 0:21:28.160
<v Speaker 8>project this. We were seeing some VATA that was alluding

0:21:28.160 --> 0:21:32.119
<v Speaker 8>to this. Now, what happened during the pandemic was Obviously,

0:21:32.200 --> 0:21:38.640
<v Speaker 8>we had large areas of the entire workforce actually leave

0:21:38.880 --> 0:21:42.840
<v Speaker 8>the healthcare profession, some because of retirement, some because of

0:21:42.960 --> 0:21:47.200
<v Speaker 8>this administrative burden, some because of illness, and that drove

0:21:47.280 --> 0:21:51.480
<v Speaker 8>that shortage down. That combined with the fact that we

0:21:51.520 --> 0:21:55.399
<v Speaker 8>are seeing an environment in healthcare now where in the

0:21:55.480 --> 0:22:00.440
<v Speaker 8>younger generation of nurses and doctors don't want to put

0:22:00.520 --> 0:22:02.840
<v Speaker 8>up with the way things have been for the last

0:22:02.880 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 8>fifty years.

0:22:03.560 --> 0:22:05.800
<v Speaker 2>Frankly, what does that mean? Wait, let me stop you

0:22:05.880 --> 0:22:06.960
<v Speaker 2>other Aloha, what does that mean?

0:22:07.040 --> 0:22:10.880
<v Speaker 8>Yeah? Well, so when you think about what we all

0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:14.040
<v Speaker 8>know about medical school and residency, we know that there's

0:22:14.119 --> 0:22:18.600
<v Speaker 8>long hours and people work long shifts. However, this generation

0:22:18.760 --> 0:22:21.400
<v Speaker 8>that's coming, you know, maybe the last two generations, they've

0:22:21.440 --> 0:22:25.240
<v Speaker 8>been taught work life balance, right, They've been pounded into

0:22:25.280 --> 0:22:27.840
<v Speaker 8>their head this concept of you can have it all,

0:22:28.119 --> 0:22:30.600
<v Speaker 8>you can work hard and play hard and have a

0:22:30.800 --> 0:22:35.560
<v Speaker 8>balanced lifestyle. But when they arrive into healthcare, they see

0:22:35.560 --> 0:22:40.360
<v Speaker 8>something different. It's not quite what they expect. And now

0:22:40.400 --> 0:22:43.959
<v Speaker 8>we're seeing some of that come to the forefront, and

0:22:44.000 --> 0:22:49.040
<v Speaker 8>we're seeing demands from healthcare workers wanting a more balanced lifestyle,

0:22:49.320 --> 0:22:54.360
<v Speaker 8>wanting more career progression, wanting the ability to spend more

0:22:54.400 --> 0:22:55.600
<v Speaker 8>time with their patients.

0:22:55.600 --> 0:22:59.960
<v Speaker 2>So essentially, so essentially, bring on generative AI, artificial intellig

0:23:00.080 --> 0:23:02.840
<v Speaker 2>in robots, because we're all, as we get older, are

0:23:02.880 --> 0:23:05.600
<v Speaker 2>going to need these folks or these robots or something

0:23:06.000 --> 0:23:08.720
<v Speaker 2>to help take care of us. Because I've heard this too,

0:23:08.800 --> 0:23:10.840
<v Speaker 2>it's interesting to hear you say that. I was talking

0:23:10.840 --> 0:23:13.240
<v Speaker 2>to a recent doctor of mine it's probably around my age,

0:23:13.520 --> 0:23:18.439
<v Speaker 2>and just said this younger generation, and we both were like,

0:23:18.520 --> 0:23:21.400
<v Speaker 2>we need to make these blanket statements, but they don't

0:23:21.400 --> 0:23:22.560
<v Speaker 2>want to work as hard.

0:23:22.800 --> 0:23:24.600
<v Speaker 1>But I think a big part of what this is,

0:23:24.640 --> 0:23:27.040
<v Speaker 1>and I talk to teachers and doctors who say the

0:23:27.080 --> 0:23:29.800
<v Speaker 1>same thing to me, is they see what happened to

0:23:30.200 --> 0:23:34.960
<v Speaker 1>people during the pandemic who now work remotely. Yeah, they

0:23:35.080 --> 0:23:38.920
<v Speaker 1>get to eat breakfast at home with their kids, they

0:23:39.000 --> 0:23:41.639
<v Speaker 1>get to go pick their kids up from school because

0:23:41.640 --> 0:23:44.400
<v Speaker 1>they work remotely three or four days a week. And

0:23:44.440 --> 0:23:47.240
<v Speaker 1>that's not something you can do as a doctor or

0:23:47.240 --> 0:23:47.640
<v Speaker 1>a nurse.

0:23:47.640 --> 0:23:48.080
<v Speaker 3>Aloha.

0:23:48.359 --> 0:23:50.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean I hear that complaint from teachers as well.

0:23:50.160 --> 0:23:51.479
<v Speaker 1>Teachers used to tell me, oh, they have the best

0:23:51.520 --> 0:23:53.560
<v Speaker 1>schedule ever because they get three months off in the summer.

0:23:53.760 --> 0:23:55.520
<v Speaker 1>But now They're like, what the heck am I doing

0:23:55.600 --> 0:23:57.520
<v Speaker 1>coming to school and being in the classroom five days

0:23:57.520 --> 0:23:59.000
<v Speaker 1>a week when the parents of the kids that I'm

0:23:59.000 --> 0:24:02.080
<v Speaker 1>teaching are only going into work two days a week.

0:24:03.080 --> 0:24:03.399
<v Speaker 9>Right.

0:24:03.440 --> 0:24:06.000
<v Speaker 8>And what I'll tell you is the health systems are responding.

0:24:06.280 --> 0:24:10.359
<v Speaker 8>They're thinking about new roles, they're offering different programs for

0:24:10.960 --> 0:24:14.560
<v Speaker 8>nurses and doctors, different career paths. They're looking at ways

0:24:14.600 --> 0:24:18.520
<v Speaker 8>to which they could offer more virtual time, and I

0:24:18.520 --> 0:24:21.159
<v Speaker 8>think that'll make a big difference. I also think to

0:24:21.200 --> 0:24:24.119
<v Speaker 8>your point around AI and automation.

0:24:24.359 --> 0:24:24.760
<v Speaker 7>You know, I was.

0:24:24.760 --> 0:24:27.040
<v Speaker 8>Reading something the other day from Mayo Clinic and they

0:24:27.160 --> 0:24:31.119
<v Speaker 8>estimated thirty percent of healthcare can be of the administrative

0:24:31.160 --> 0:24:33.000
<v Speaker 8>tasks could be automated.

0:24:33.480 --> 0:24:36.359
<v Speaker 1>What are we doing? Let's go Okay, So here's here's

0:24:36.400 --> 0:24:37.960
<v Speaker 1>a question that I have for you. When as I

0:24:38.000 --> 0:24:40.520
<v Speaker 1>was doing research for our interview, I came across a

0:24:40.520 --> 0:24:44.879
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg story from October that showed that the average employee

0:24:44.920 --> 0:24:48.760
<v Speaker 1>sponsored employer sponsored healthcare excuse me, the employee sponsored health

0:24:48.760 --> 0:24:53.200
<v Speaker 1>insurance premium for US families rose seven percent to almost

0:24:53.280 --> 0:24:56.080
<v Speaker 1>twenty four thousand dollars this year. That's according to an

0:24:56.080 --> 0:24:59.240
<v Speaker 1>annual KFF survey of more than two thousand companies. That

0:24:59.280 --> 0:25:02.240
<v Speaker 1>compares to a one percent increase last year. We're paying

0:25:02.280 --> 0:25:05.520
<v Speaker 1>more for healthcare. The employers are paying more for health care.

0:25:06.160 --> 0:25:08.760
<v Speaker 1>Where in the value chain is that money going if

0:25:08.800 --> 0:25:10.359
<v Speaker 1>everybody is burned out?

0:25:11.520 --> 0:25:11.720
<v Speaker 5>Yeah?

0:25:11.760 --> 0:25:14.920
<v Speaker 8>Well, certainly labor costs have been rising, right, We've seen

0:25:14.960 --> 0:25:18.440
<v Speaker 8>the statistics and they're estimated to continue to rise over

0:25:18.480 --> 0:25:22.120
<v Speaker 8>the course of next year. Within the healthcare industry, and

0:25:22.200 --> 0:25:25.240
<v Speaker 8>during different segments of the pandemic, we had a lot

0:25:25.280 --> 0:25:29.040
<v Speaker 8>of traveling nurses on boarded into different health systems and

0:25:29.119 --> 0:25:31.080
<v Speaker 8>those wages were rising tremendously.

0:25:31.200 --> 0:25:32.720
<v Speaker 2>So is it all labor costs?

0:25:34.000 --> 0:25:36.080
<v Speaker 8>I will say a lot of it is labor cost

0:25:36.280 --> 0:25:40.359
<v Speaker 8>for sure. Certainly the cost of health care supplies is

0:25:40.400 --> 0:25:43.639
<v Speaker 8>certainly adding to this burden as well, so the cost

0:25:43.680 --> 0:25:48.760
<v Speaker 8>of goods, if you will, pharmaceuticals as well as medical disposables.

0:25:49.480 --> 0:25:51.480
<v Speaker 8>I think we see this across the economy, right, It's

0:25:51.520 --> 0:25:54.880
<v Speaker 8>not just in healthcare. Inflation has driven up the price

0:25:54.960 --> 0:25:58.800
<v Speaker 8>of many things, many sectors, and healthcare is always going

0:25:58.840 --> 0:25:59.960
<v Speaker 8>to get.

0:25:59.520 --> 0:26:03.240
<v Speaker 2>Hit with these You talked about, you know, technology maybe

0:26:03.240 --> 0:26:05.639
<v Speaker 2>helping with the administrative side. That's great. I feel like

0:26:05.640 --> 0:26:07.320
<v Speaker 2>it should be a given, it should be done already,

0:26:07.520 --> 0:26:11.000
<v Speaker 2>but I'm I want a clinician, you know, who can

0:26:11.080 --> 0:26:14.760
<v Speaker 2>maybe work side by side with technology to make sure

0:26:14.760 --> 0:26:16.920
<v Speaker 2>I get the best care. So I am a little

0:26:16.960 --> 0:26:19.520
<v Speaker 2>worried about the pipeline when it comes to actually individuals

0:26:19.520 --> 0:26:21.600
<v Speaker 2>that are needed. Any thoughts on that. We've just got

0:26:21.640 --> 0:26:23.000
<v Speaker 2>about twenty five seconds left.

0:26:23.960 --> 0:26:26.600
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, listen, I think it's a great point. We want

0:26:26.680 --> 0:26:30.280
<v Speaker 8>to see, you know, starting in medical schools and nursing schools,

0:26:30.280 --> 0:26:33.960
<v Speaker 8>individuals getting trained on what to understand about AI and

0:26:34.040 --> 0:26:37.280
<v Speaker 8>digital health and technology. We want to see those digital

0:26:37.280 --> 0:26:41.960
<v Speaker 8>health and technology companies and healthcare provider organizations include those

0:26:42.000 --> 0:26:45.360
<v Speaker 8>clinicians in the development of all of these new technologies

0:26:45.400 --> 0:26:48.119
<v Speaker 8>to ensure their fit for purpose for these clinicians who

0:26:48.200 --> 0:26:48.879
<v Speaker 8>have to use.

0:26:48.760 --> 0:26:49.640
<v Speaker 5>Them and work with them.

0:26:49.800 --> 0:26:53.360
<v Speaker 2>Well, thanks so much for your time, Happy Thanksgiving, aloa aloha.

0:26:53.520 --> 0:26:57.440
<v Speaker 2>McBride ey, Global Health Leader. Joining us on zoom from Virginia.

0:26:57.760 --> 0:26:58.600
<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg.

0:27:00.400 --> 0:27:03.959
<v Speaker 3>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:27:04.000 --> 0:27:07.359
<v Speaker 3>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on

0:27:07.400 --> 0:27:10.240
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the.

0:27:10.200 --> 0:27:25.720
<v Speaker 10>Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

0:27:26.000 --> 0:27:28.439
<v Speaker 2>Everybody's pretty hungry for Thanksgiving?

0:27:29.920 --> 0:27:30.399
<v Speaker 3>Is everyone?

0:27:31.119 --> 0:27:32.919
<v Speaker 2>But is everybody going to really be that hungry?

0:27:33.080 --> 0:27:34.720
<v Speaker 1>Are they going to be as hungry as they were

0:27:34.960 --> 0:27:36.719
<v Speaker 1>before izempic? Maybe not?

0:27:37.600 --> 0:27:40.119
<v Speaker 2>Uh So, winding down on this Thanksgiving Eve, our magazine

0:27:40.119 --> 0:27:41.879
<v Speaker 2>team is a great story for You can find it

0:27:41.920 --> 0:27:44.639
<v Speaker 2>online at Bloomberg dot com, Slash business Week, and of

0:27:44.640 --> 0:27:47.040
<v Speaker 2>course on the Bloomberg terminal. It's a story that as

0:27:47.080 --> 0:27:48.960
<v Speaker 2>soon as we saw it, like we want to talk

0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:51.960
<v Speaker 2>about this. It adds some irony to a holiday known

0:27:52.000 --> 0:27:55.080
<v Speaker 2>for high levels of food consumption. Americans are eating less

0:27:55.080 --> 0:27:57.080
<v Speaker 2>these days, actually a lot.

0:27:56.960 --> 0:27:59.760
<v Speaker 1>Less prescriptions for a series of drugs known as GLP

0:28:00.080 --> 0:28:02.879
<v Speaker 1>one agonists. We're talking about ozempic, we go vi in

0:28:02.920 --> 0:28:06.440
<v Speaker 1>the like. They quadrupled from twenty twenty to twenty twenty two,

0:28:06.480 --> 0:28:08.720
<v Speaker 1>and it looks like there's plenty more growth ahead for

0:28:08.800 --> 0:28:11.600
<v Speaker 1>these pharmaceuticals in the US as drug maker search for

0:28:11.640 --> 0:28:15.399
<v Speaker 1>even more clinical uses. Bloomberg News consumer reporter Dina Shanker

0:28:15.480 --> 0:28:17.760
<v Speaker 1>joins us on zoom from New York. She wrote all

0:28:17.760 --> 0:28:20.680
<v Speaker 1>about it in the context of the Thanksgiving holiday. Dina,

0:28:20.720 --> 0:28:24.000
<v Speaker 1>good to have you with us this afternoon. Before we

0:28:24.040 --> 0:28:26.440
<v Speaker 1>talk about what these drugs are doing and the way

0:28:26.440 --> 0:28:29.600
<v Speaker 1>you're thinking about it for Thanksgiving. Talk to me about

0:28:30.080 --> 0:28:34.600
<v Speaker 1>just how many prescriptions now are being written for ozempic,

0:28:34.640 --> 0:28:35.520
<v Speaker 1>we go vi in the like.

0:28:36.840 --> 0:28:40.760
<v Speaker 11>I mean, millions of Americans now are taking these drugs.

0:28:41.760 --> 0:28:48.520
<v Speaker 11>They are up three hundred percent currently at one point

0:28:48.560 --> 0:28:54.000
<v Speaker 11>eight million together for sorry A, one point eight million

0:28:54.080 --> 0:28:57.120
<v Speaker 11>for ozempic, and four hundred and fifty three thousand for Wagovi,

0:28:57.240 --> 0:28:58.320
<v Speaker 11>so that's two point.

0:28:58.040 --> 0:29:03.640
<v Speaker 9>Two million total. And they are just getting really really

0:29:03.680 --> 0:29:05.360
<v Speaker 9>popular for a lot of people.

0:29:05.600 --> 0:29:08.400
<v Speaker 2>It's like off the charts. It's pretty wild. I've seen

0:29:08.400 --> 0:29:10.719
<v Speaker 2>it firsthand with people who are using it or taking it,

0:29:10.760 --> 0:29:13.680
<v Speaker 2>and it really does reduce their appetite in a big,

0:29:13.720 --> 0:29:16.360
<v Speaker 2>big way. They're just not hungry. So I think about

0:29:16.600 --> 0:29:19.280
<v Speaker 2>the impact of this Thanksgiving and that's what you write about.

0:29:19.480 --> 0:29:21.640
<v Speaker 2>Talked about some of the specific people you talk to.

0:29:23.000 --> 0:29:26.880
<v Speaker 11>So I spoke to four different people that are currently

0:29:27.240 --> 0:29:32.280
<v Speaker 11>taking the drugs, and everyone was really happy with the

0:29:32.400 --> 0:29:35.720
<v Speaker 11>changes in their life and especially what it meant for Thanksgiving.

0:29:36.800 --> 0:29:39.160
<v Speaker 11>One woman I spoke to talked about not just for

0:29:39.240 --> 0:29:42.560
<v Speaker 11>herself but also her children seventeen and twenty one years old,

0:29:42.800 --> 0:29:46.320
<v Speaker 11>who have been taking these drugs and they have just

0:29:46.360 --> 0:29:50.160
<v Speaker 11>seen not just great weight loss results, which I know

0:29:50.200 --> 0:29:53.400
<v Speaker 11>everybody wants when they're taking them, but they're also just

0:29:53.560 --> 0:29:56.720
<v Speaker 11>looking at their food differently. They're open to her kids

0:29:56.760 --> 0:29:59.160
<v Speaker 11>are open to eating things that they weren't eating before.

0:29:59.680 --> 0:30:01.960
<v Speaker 11>She so excited about how now she gets to add

0:30:01.960 --> 0:30:05.600
<v Speaker 11>more fruits and vegetables to the table. And you know,

0:30:05.680 --> 0:30:08.520
<v Speaker 11>she's hosting, so she's actually going to make you know,

0:30:08.560 --> 0:30:12.080
<v Speaker 11>the cast roles, the green bean casserole, the sweet potato casserole,

0:30:12.680 --> 0:30:13.760
<v Speaker 11>the macaroni and cheese.

0:30:13.840 --> 0:30:15.360
<v Speaker 9>But she was like, I'll take a bite and then

0:30:15.400 --> 0:30:17.440
<v Speaker 9>I'll send those leftovers home with my parents.

0:30:17.560 --> 0:30:19.800
<v Speaker 11>She's gonna hold onto the turkey because she still wants

0:30:19.880 --> 0:30:20.400
<v Speaker 11>the protein.

0:30:21.040 --> 0:30:23.800
<v Speaker 9>But everyone is. Everyone I spoke to is.

0:30:24.160 --> 0:30:27.800
<v Speaker 11>Thinking about the holiday differently. And another woman I spoke

0:30:27.840 --> 0:30:30.360
<v Speaker 11>with she was so funny. She was talking about how

0:30:30.560 --> 0:30:34.240
<v Speaker 11>she has three sons and how they complain about the

0:30:34.240 --> 0:30:36.400
<v Speaker 11>the lack of snacks in the house because she doesn't

0:30:36.440 --> 0:30:40.640
<v Speaker 11>make both purchases anymore right, and her snack door is

0:30:40.640 --> 0:30:43.480
<v Speaker 11>really weak these days, so the kids have to put

0:30:43.480 --> 0:30:46.040
<v Speaker 11>it on the list. And for Thanksgiving, she said she

0:30:46.080 --> 0:30:49.120
<v Speaker 11>used to spend weeks in advance, you know, looking for

0:30:49.160 --> 0:30:51.720
<v Speaker 11>the best recipes as she got her menu ready. But

0:30:51.880 --> 0:30:53.600
<v Speaker 11>one of the things that these drugs do is they

0:30:53.640 --> 0:30:55.720
<v Speaker 11>turn off the food noise, as it's called, so you're

0:30:55.760 --> 0:30:58.000
<v Speaker 11>just not thinking about the food all the time. So

0:30:58.040 --> 0:31:00.320
<v Speaker 11>she's like, I'll do She's still gonna make it everything.

0:31:00.320 --> 0:31:02.440
<v Speaker 11>And she's actually even skipping her shot so that she

0:31:02.480 --> 0:31:06.000
<v Speaker 11>can enjoy yourself a bit more on the holiday.

0:31:06.320 --> 0:31:09.520
<v Speaker 9>But she's just not She's not thinking about food all

0:31:09.520 --> 0:31:09.840
<v Speaker 9>the time.

0:31:10.000 --> 0:31:13.240
<v Speaker 1>That's so interesting. I just want to cut you off here, Dina.

0:31:13.320 --> 0:31:15.120
<v Speaker 1>What skipping her shot? What do you mean by that?

0:31:15.120 --> 0:31:17.040
<v Speaker 1>Because these are monthly injections, right.

0:31:18.520 --> 0:31:19.000
<v Speaker 9>Weekly?

0:31:19.200 --> 0:31:22.360
<v Speaker 1>I believe weekly? Okay, skipping this week, So she's skipping

0:31:22.360 --> 0:31:25.120
<v Speaker 1>this week, so that means she's great?

0:31:25.280 --> 0:31:25.520
<v Speaker 3>Is that?

0:31:25.560 --> 0:31:28.080
<v Speaker 1>But is that? I mean, I know you're not a doctor,

0:31:28.240 --> 0:31:30.720
<v Speaker 1>we're not doctors here, but is that? Is that how

0:31:30.800 --> 0:31:32.680
<v Speaker 1>the shot works? Is it?

0:31:32.720 --> 0:31:33.080
<v Speaker 3>Is it? Like?

0:31:33.320 --> 0:31:36.320
<v Speaker 11>I mean, she she thinks it's going to work for

0:31:36.400 --> 0:31:40.120
<v Speaker 11>her that way. I don't know that doctors would advise

0:31:40.320 --> 0:31:41.320
<v Speaker 11>people to do this.

0:31:41.600 --> 0:31:44.080
<v Speaker 9>But one of the interesting things.

0:31:43.760 --> 0:31:47.920
<v Speaker 11>About these shots and about these drugs is that they.

0:31:47.760 --> 0:31:50.240
<v Speaker 9>Were initially actually you know, not for weight loss.

0:31:50.280 --> 0:31:53.520
<v Speaker 11>They were for diabetes, and so a lot of the

0:31:53.600 --> 0:31:56.520
<v Speaker 11>uses of them are off label, so because they're being

0:31:56.600 --> 0:31:59.480
<v Speaker 11>used as a weight loss drug instead of as a

0:31:59.480 --> 0:32:04.480
<v Speaker 11>as a diabetes drug. So I think what we're seeing

0:32:05.160 --> 0:32:08.360
<v Speaker 11>both with the people using them and at the clinical

0:32:08.440 --> 0:32:11.520
<v Speaker 11>level is a lot of you know, they're still studying it.

0:32:11.560 --> 0:32:13.920
<v Speaker 11>They're still trying to find out all the different things

0:32:13.920 --> 0:32:15.200
<v Speaker 11>that these drugs can do.

0:32:15.720 --> 0:32:21.480
<v Speaker 9>So for some people they have just been incredible.

0:32:22.320 --> 0:32:26.240
<v Speaker 11>Weight loss miracle drugs, as they describe them. But I

0:32:26.240 --> 0:32:29.840
<v Speaker 11>should add that one of the health professionals I spoke with,

0:32:30.160 --> 0:32:33.040
<v Speaker 11>a pharmacist, was really quick to make sure that we

0:32:33.080 --> 0:32:35.720
<v Speaker 11>didn't discount the work that the patients are doing. That

0:32:35.760 --> 0:32:38.480
<v Speaker 11>it's not just like you take your injection and you're

0:32:38.520 --> 0:32:40.280
<v Speaker 11>done and the you never think about food again and

0:32:40.320 --> 0:32:41.440
<v Speaker 11>the pounds start melting off.

0:32:41.720 --> 0:32:43.440
<v Speaker 9>She was saying how it's really important that.

0:32:43.360 --> 0:32:47.560
<v Speaker 11>People are learning how to manage their serving sizes. They're

0:32:47.600 --> 0:32:52.160
<v Speaker 11>going for, you know, that walk after dinner, they're sticking

0:32:52.200 --> 0:32:55.720
<v Speaker 11>it out through. Sometimes people experience really bad side effects

0:32:55.760 --> 0:33:01.240
<v Speaker 11>like nausea, and they are really taking advantage of the

0:33:01.280 --> 0:33:03.920
<v Speaker 11>benefits of the drug, but they're not completely relying on

0:33:03.920 --> 0:33:04.360
<v Speaker 11>the drugs.

0:33:04.640 --> 0:33:05.880
<v Speaker 9>Even if you.

0:33:05.960 --> 0:33:08.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I will say from no, no, no. From people

0:33:08.000 --> 0:33:10.360
<v Speaker 2>who are on it, you know, heard things like I

0:33:10.440 --> 0:33:12.440
<v Speaker 2>just have a more awareness. Especially first of all, it

0:33:12.440 --> 0:33:14.760
<v Speaker 2>does cut your appetite, and so you have an awareness

0:33:14.760 --> 0:33:16.680
<v Speaker 2>of kind of what you're eating or what you're not eating,

0:33:16.720 --> 0:33:20.440
<v Speaker 2>and it just kind of changes your perspective with like

0:33:20.440 --> 0:33:22.520
<v Speaker 2>when you put food on your plate, you kind of

0:33:22.560 --> 0:33:24.800
<v Speaker 2>look at it and like, I don't need that much.

0:33:24.840 --> 0:33:26.320
<v Speaker 1>I guess what I don't understand, like, how does it

0:33:26.360 --> 0:33:28.240
<v Speaker 1>motivate you to then go for a walk after dinner

0:33:28.400 --> 0:33:32.680
<v Speaker 1>or Dina. Maybe it's because they are so cognizant of

0:33:32.840 --> 0:33:33.640
<v Speaker 1>this weekly they.

0:33:33.520 --> 0:33:35.680
<v Speaker 2>Feel better because they've lost weight and they can actually

0:33:35.680 --> 0:33:37.000
<v Speaker 2>move around a little bit more.

0:33:37.120 --> 0:33:39.560
<v Speaker 1>Or maybe the expense these are expensive too.

0:33:40.600 --> 0:33:43.040
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, and the drug itself doesn't motivate you to go

0:33:43.080 --> 0:33:43.760
<v Speaker 9>for that walk.

0:33:48.880 --> 0:33:53.440
<v Speaker 3>Mack a journal about you.

0:33:53.520 --> 0:33:54.040
<v Speaker 6>Let me drive?

0:33:54.520 --> 0:34:03.040
<v Speaker 1>No, no, no, honey, please, I want to try.

0:34:01.520 --> 0:34:04.720
<v Speaker 6>It's a good question.

0:34:08.520 --> 0:34:13.759
<v Speaker 3>This is the drive to the Clothes well By on

0:34:14.000 --> 0:34:14.920
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Radio.

0:34:15.160 --> 0:34:17.960
<v Speaker 2>All right, everybody, just about eighteen minutes left in today's

0:34:18.080 --> 0:34:20.279
<v Speaker 2>trading session, getting ready to wrap up the day just

0:34:20.320 --> 0:34:23.239
<v Speaker 2>before Thanksgiving. Then were markets are shut and then of

0:34:23.239 --> 0:34:26.920
<v Speaker 2>course we'll reopen for a holiday shortened or post holiday

0:34:26.920 --> 0:34:30.320
<v Speaker 2>shortened trading day on Friday. I am I'm going to

0:34:30.360 --> 0:34:32.839
<v Speaker 2>be with Paul Sweeney from ten am Wall Street time

0:34:32.880 --> 0:34:35.239
<v Speaker 2>to about two pm Wall Street time, so we'll wrap

0:34:35.320 --> 0:34:37.160
<v Speaker 2>up the markets and yeah, chat a bunch.

0:34:37.719 --> 0:34:40.480
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for holding down the fourt You are welcome. I'll

0:34:40.480 --> 0:34:41.000
<v Speaker 1>be listening.

0:34:41.560 --> 0:34:42.000
<v Speaker 2>No you won't.

0:34:42.120 --> 0:34:45.879
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, well yeah, we'll be there in Cincinnati listening all right,

0:34:45.960 --> 0:34:46.759
<v Speaker 1>looking forward to it.

0:34:46.800 --> 0:34:49.200
<v Speaker 2>So let's get to it and our drive to the closed.

0:34:49.200 --> 0:34:52.120
<v Speaker 2>Guest Vans Howard back with US CEO and portfolio manager

0:34:52.120 --> 0:34:55.800
<v Speaker 2>IF the only registered investment advisor. Howard Capital Management roughly

0:34:56.000 --> 0:34:59.480
<v Speaker 2>five billion in assets under management. He's also, by the way,

0:34:59.480 --> 0:35:01.799
<v Speaker 2>owner op Raider with his family of the bar Sea

0:35:01.880 --> 0:35:04.480
<v Speaker 2>Ranch in Madisonville, Texas. I just like that little fun

0:35:04.480 --> 0:35:05.680
<v Speaker 2>fact about them.

0:35:05.840 --> 0:35:05.960
<v Speaker 6>Van.

0:35:05.960 --> 0:35:07.839
<v Speaker 2>It's good to have you back with us.

0:35:07.840 --> 0:35:10.600
<v Speaker 12>How are you, Carol, It's always good to talk to you.

0:35:10.800 --> 0:35:13.440
<v Speaker 2>Well, it's great to have you here. You're there and

0:35:13.440 --> 0:35:16.520
<v Speaker 2>I think Georgia today, is that correct? No, I'm in Texas,

0:35:16.600 --> 0:35:18.880
<v Speaker 2>you're you are in Texas. Okay, forgive me, forgive me.

0:35:19.480 --> 0:35:21.200
<v Speaker 2>So what's easier to do right now? Run a ranch

0:35:21.280 --> 0:35:22.280
<v Speaker 2>or invest in the market?

0:35:23.239 --> 0:35:26.520
<v Speaker 12>Well, they're both managing money is a lot more profitable

0:35:26.520 --> 0:35:27.919
<v Speaker 12>to running ranch. I can tell you that.

0:35:29.520 --> 0:35:31.600
<v Speaker 1>Well, I got it. You got to tell us a

0:35:31.600 --> 0:35:34.960
<v Speaker 1>little more about this. Okay, what's before we get to

0:35:35.640 --> 0:35:37.640
<v Speaker 1>your thoughts on the market. What is the bar Sea ranch?

0:35:38.520 --> 0:35:42.520
<v Speaker 12>Actually, we run exotics. We run zebra's, kangaroos, gimbox ors.

0:35:42.560 --> 0:35:45.239
<v Speaker 12>We run about six different exotic type of breeds out there,

0:35:45.280 --> 0:35:47.799
<v Speaker 12>and then we you know, raise them and sell them.

0:35:47.840 --> 0:35:49.279
<v Speaker 12>And we have quite a bit of will to bease too.

0:35:49.280 --> 0:35:51.719
<v Speaker 12>They're they're quite interesting and fun to to raise.

0:35:51.760 --> 0:35:53.120
<v Speaker 1>Who buys zebras.

0:35:55.120 --> 0:35:55.319
<v Speaker 8>Well?

0:35:55.360 --> 0:35:57.080
<v Speaker 12>You'd be amazed, and a lot of people like them

0:35:57.080 --> 0:35:59.759
<v Speaker 12>as you know, animals to look at, and then they

0:35:59.760 --> 0:36:02.120
<v Speaker 12>put on the ranch at their farm and they're fun

0:36:02.160 --> 0:36:02.879
<v Speaker 12>to view.

0:36:03.360 --> 0:36:05.239
<v Speaker 2>I bet I bet they are. I bet they are.

0:36:05.280 --> 0:36:07.000
<v Speaker 1>We're still remote from there, Caroll, like a little kind

0:36:07.000 --> 0:36:08.040
<v Speaker 1>of petting zoo type thing.

0:36:09.239 --> 0:36:09.680
<v Speaker 6>I would love.

0:36:09.719 --> 0:36:10.279
<v Speaker 3>I would love.

0:36:10.680 --> 0:36:14.440
<v Speaker 2>All right, So let's talk about this investment environment. Your

0:36:14.520 --> 0:36:17.600
<v Speaker 2>HCM income plus fun up about sixteen percent year today,

0:36:17.600 --> 0:36:20.480
<v Speaker 2>being most of its peers. Your flagship Tactical Growth Fund

0:36:20.719 --> 0:36:23.640
<v Speaker 2>of twenty three percent year to date according to Bloomberg Data,

0:36:23.640 --> 0:36:26.840
<v Speaker 2>that puts it in the fifty fifth percentile against its peers.

0:36:27.120 --> 0:36:29.680
<v Speaker 2>What's been a good investment this year? What hasn't for you?

0:36:30.920 --> 0:36:32.680
<v Speaker 12>Well, you know, it got really sloppy from you know,

0:36:32.719 --> 0:36:35.080
<v Speaker 12>around July, and then the market picked back up when

0:36:35.120 --> 0:36:36.640
<v Speaker 12>the FED came out. It was a little bit more

0:36:37.160 --> 0:36:38.920
<v Speaker 12>you know, dovish, I guess, is what you could say.

0:36:38.960 --> 0:36:40.319
<v Speaker 12>Or we had some good data that came out on

0:36:40.320 --> 0:36:42.719
<v Speaker 12>the inflation front and the market shops straight back up.

0:36:43.040 --> 0:36:45.439
<v Speaker 12>It's been a pretty challenging market to trade in. But again,

0:36:45.520 --> 0:36:47.480
<v Speaker 12>you know, magnificent seven has been the place to be.

0:36:48.040 --> 0:36:50.120
<v Speaker 12>But we're starting to see the market Carroll broaden out,

0:36:50.200 --> 0:36:52.440
<v Speaker 12>like with the small cap and the Russell two thousand

0:36:52.520 --> 0:36:54.279
<v Speaker 12>started to broaden out over the past couple of weeks,

0:36:54.320 --> 0:36:56.840
<v Speaker 12>which is I think very optimistic going forward for the

0:36:56.880 --> 0:36:58.680
<v Speaker 12>market that we're getting more players coming in and we're

0:36:58.680 --> 0:37:00.680
<v Speaker 12>starting to pick up different areas of markets starting to

0:37:00.680 --> 0:37:01.160
<v Speaker 12>move higher.

0:37:01.239 --> 0:37:02.719
<v Speaker 2>Well, it's so funny though. We talked with our GENA

0:37:02.760 --> 0:37:04.279
<v Speaker 2>Martin Adams, who said, it feels like a lot of

0:37:04.280 --> 0:37:06.799
<v Speaker 2>the bad news has been factored in when you look

0:37:06.840 --> 0:37:09.400
<v Speaker 2>at the corporate earnings, what they said on the calls,

0:37:09.440 --> 0:37:11.160
<v Speaker 2>what they said in their releases, and that a lot

0:37:11.200 --> 0:37:13.279
<v Speaker 2>of that bad news is factored in, although it could

0:37:13.320 --> 0:37:16.160
<v Speaker 2>be a bit of a choppy twenty twenty four. Do

0:37:16.280 --> 0:37:18.160
<v Speaker 2>you agree or do you feel like it's going to

0:37:18.160 --> 0:37:20.760
<v Speaker 2>be one way our one way direction market.

0:37:21.719 --> 0:37:23.120
<v Speaker 12>I think we're going to have a strong end of

0:37:23.120 --> 0:37:24.920
<v Speaker 12>the year in twenty twenty three, but I think twenty

0:37:24.960 --> 0:37:26.600
<v Speaker 12>twenty four, I think is going to be a great year.

0:37:26.600 --> 0:37:28.840
<v Speaker 12>I think there's a tremendous amount of cash on the sidelines.

0:37:28.880 --> 0:37:30.880
<v Speaker 12>We're also looking at bonds too, Carol. You know, we

0:37:30.920 --> 0:37:33.080
<v Speaker 12>started actually picking up some twenty year treasuries about two

0:37:33.120 --> 0:37:34.839
<v Speaker 12>weeks ago when the bond market is starting to look

0:37:34.880 --> 0:37:36.800
<v Speaker 12>healthier than it has for the last eighteen to twenty

0:37:36.800 --> 0:37:39.239
<v Speaker 12>four months. So you know that network bullsh and I

0:37:39.239 --> 0:37:41.040
<v Speaker 12>think twenty four could be a big year.

0:37:41.440 --> 0:37:43.319
<v Speaker 1>Okay. We love talking to you because you've got the

0:37:43.800 --> 0:37:46.480
<v Speaker 1>HCM byline, which you've told us about a couple of

0:37:46.520 --> 0:37:48.719
<v Speaker 1>years ago, at least that's when I learned about it.

0:37:49.200 --> 0:37:51.440
<v Speaker 1>Explain what it is and what the signal that it's

0:37:51.480 --> 0:37:53.640
<v Speaker 1>telling you right now or should be. People be buying

0:37:53.680 --> 0:37:54.439
<v Speaker 1>stocks right now?

0:37:55.200 --> 0:37:57.319
<v Speaker 12>They should be and the ACM by line is nothing

0:37:57.320 --> 0:38:00.480
<v Speaker 12>more than an intermediate term trends system. So it's basically

0:38:00.480 --> 0:38:02.040
<v Speaker 12>taking where the trends at, where it's up or down,

0:38:02.080 --> 0:38:03.279
<v Speaker 12>and of course if it's down, you want to you

0:38:03.360 --> 0:38:04.800
<v Speaker 12>want you want to play very very cautious, you know,

0:38:04.920 --> 0:38:06.680
<v Speaker 12>move some money to cash and play it. Say, the

0:38:06.680 --> 0:38:08.799
<v Speaker 12>byline went positive about two two and a half weeks

0:38:08.800 --> 0:38:10.839
<v Speaker 12>ago after being negative for about I don't know, two

0:38:10.880 --> 0:38:12.560
<v Speaker 12>and a half weeks. It actually dropped off. We had

0:38:12.600 --> 0:38:14.600
<v Speaker 12>those nasty cell offs. But when bed came back, it

0:38:14.719 --> 0:38:16.719
<v Speaker 12>corrected it, you know, straight back up, and we moved

0:38:16.800 --> 0:38:19.200
<v Speaker 12>back in into a pretty good clip. But we're bullsh

0:38:19.239 --> 0:38:21.960
<v Speaker 12>going forward. The byline's really really strong. That means market's

0:38:22.000 --> 0:38:22.799
<v Speaker 12>really broadening out.

0:38:23.040 --> 0:38:26.200
<v Speaker 2>Remind our folks who maybe didn't catch you when you've

0:38:26.200 --> 0:38:28.680
<v Speaker 2>been on before, what that byline is about.

0:38:30.000 --> 0:38:32.520
<v Speaker 12>Basically, it's a number of different indexes that we've averaged together,

0:38:32.560 --> 0:38:34.640
<v Speaker 12>plus we have a proprietary moving average that sort of

0:38:34.760 --> 0:38:37.200
<v Speaker 12>tracks those different indexes, and when the indexes start to fall,

0:38:37.280 --> 0:38:38.840
<v Speaker 12>it's going to go negative and that means that we

0:38:38.920 --> 0:38:41.000
<v Speaker 12>move away from the market. We side step at whether

0:38:41.040 --> 0:38:43.520
<v Speaker 12>it's twenty percent, thirty or forty into short term bonds

0:38:43.560 --> 0:38:45.719
<v Speaker 12>or cash. And of course, once it's positive, we go

0:38:45.719 --> 0:38:48.680
<v Speaker 12>one hundred percent back in almost immediately, and you know,

0:38:48.760 --> 0:38:51.399
<v Speaker 12>Marcus trend and this has been a pretty sloppy market

0:38:51.480 --> 0:38:54.200
<v Speaker 12>for twenty twenty three, but it's still working and it's

0:38:54.239 --> 0:38:56.120
<v Speaker 12>still working out, you know, pretty well for us going

0:38:56.160 --> 0:38:57.640
<v Speaker 12>into the last you know, six to eight weeks of

0:38:57.640 --> 0:38:57.960
<v Speaker 12>the year.

0:38:58.600 --> 0:39:00.760
<v Speaker 1>Is there a does it tell you if there's another

0:39:01.160 --> 0:39:03.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, like when would it tell you to actually

0:39:04.160 --> 0:39:06.719
<v Speaker 1>move cash or move into cash? Like what would sort

0:39:06.760 --> 0:39:09.800
<v Speaker 1>of the signals be that would indicate to you that, okay,

0:39:10.120 --> 0:39:12.280
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing a little bit of weakness ahead.

0:39:13.160 --> 0:39:15.200
<v Speaker 12>Well, the good part about it is it's not real active,

0:39:15.280 --> 0:39:17.160
<v Speaker 12>and you know, anything that's too active, I think is

0:39:17.200 --> 0:39:18.840
<v Speaker 12>a little bit overkill and I think you end up,

0:39:18.880 --> 0:39:21.040
<v Speaker 12>you know, just doing a lot of exercise for nothing

0:39:21.040 --> 0:39:23.560
<v Speaker 12>more than exercise. But when the trend goes negative, you know,

0:39:23.560 --> 0:39:25.200
<v Speaker 12>it's going to give us a red light. And you know,

0:39:25.239 --> 0:39:27.200
<v Speaker 12>when a trend's negative, we start moving away. So it

0:39:27.360 --> 0:39:29.600
<v Speaker 12>just closes below that trend and there we are. And

0:39:29.600 --> 0:39:31.440
<v Speaker 12>then when it closes back above and we come, you know,

0:39:31.520 --> 0:39:34.360
<v Speaker 12>firing back in. The thing is about the markets. You know,

0:39:34.400 --> 0:39:36.040
<v Speaker 12>you can have a thousand reasons it goes down a

0:39:36.120 --> 0:39:38.040
<v Speaker 12>thousand reasons that it goes up, but you know the

0:39:38.040 --> 0:39:39.560
<v Speaker 12>market's going to do what they do. But you have

0:39:39.600 --> 0:39:41.759
<v Speaker 12>to trade what actually is happening. You can't really trade

0:39:41.800 --> 0:39:43.479
<v Speaker 12>what you think is going to happen because that usually

0:39:43.600 --> 0:39:45.680
<v Speaker 12>very seldom you know, plays out as well as you'd

0:39:45.760 --> 0:39:47.719
<v Speaker 12>like for it too. So if the market's negative, it

0:39:47.719 --> 0:39:49.680
<v Speaker 12>goes below the byline, we take the emotion out, we

0:39:49.719 --> 0:39:51.759
<v Speaker 12>start moving some money to cash and short term bonds

0:39:51.800 --> 0:39:54.239
<v Speaker 12>and get getting reset to some by equities. When it

0:39:54.239 --> 0:39:55.440
<v Speaker 12>turns back up, what's.

0:39:55.239 --> 0:39:58.279
<v Speaker 2>The sustainability of that byline? In other words, once it

0:39:58.320 --> 0:40:01.240
<v Speaker 2>turns or when once it shows an indication and perhaps

0:40:01.320 --> 0:40:05.480
<v Speaker 2>the opposite direction, does it stay that way or or

0:40:05.520 --> 0:40:07.680
<v Speaker 2>can it shift very quickly again?

0:40:08.680 --> 0:40:10.319
<v Speaker 12>It can stay that way. We've seen it go, you know,

0:40:10.360 --> 0:40:12.520
<v Speaker 12>go positive for over three years. It's got a seventy

0:40:12.560 --> 0:40:14.719
<v Speaker 12>two percent win rate, so you know you're looking at

0:40:14.760 --> 0:40:16.600
<v Speaker 12>basically a seventy thirty So at seventy percent of the

0:40:16.640 --> 0:40:18.440
<v Speaker 12>time it's right. Thirty percent of the time it's wrong.

0:40:18.680 --> 0:40:20.359
<v Speaker 12>But the good part about it, Carol, is it never

0:40:20.360 --> 0:40:22.279
<v Speaker 12>stays wrong. So if it's wrong for a couple three

0:40:22.280 --> 0:40:24.040
<v Speaker 12>weeks and it changes back up, you can come right

0:40:24.080 --> 0:40:25.560
<v Speaker 12>back into the equities, and you know you're not going

0:40:25.600 --> 0:40:27.360
<v Speaker 12>to break them. I mean, if you sell Tesla and

0:40:27.360 --> 0:40:28.759
<v Speaker 12>buy it back tomorrow, you're not going to break it.

0:40:28.800 --> 0:40:30.120
<v Speaker 12>So you can trade them as much as you want.

0:40:30.360 --> 0:40:34.279
<v Speaker 1>So the index, the HCM byline covers individual equities too,

0:40:34.480 --> 0:40:35.759
<v Speaker 1>or just indexes.

0:40:36.520 --> 0:40:38.640
<v Speaker 12>Now that's a quant system that we run, and we

0:40:38.719 --> 0:40:40.879
<v Speaker 12>run a pretty strong quant system to try to pick

0:40:40.880 --> 0:40:42.799
<v Speaker 12>out what equities and what sectors in the market are

0:40:42.800 --> 0:40:44.759
<v Speaker 12>doing the best. That's one reason that we picked up

0:40:44.960 --> 0:40:46.759
<v Speaker 12>the small caps, and that's when we reason we picked

0:40:46.840 --> 0:40:49.480
<v Speaker 12>up the TLT. You know, the twenty year bond is

0:40:49.480 --> 0:40:51.600
<v Speaker 12>because you know, two weeks ago those went positive, which

0:40:51.680 --> 0:40:53.960
<v Speaker 12>is really encouraging because they haven't been positive for quite

0:40:54.320 --> 0:40:54.960
<v Speaker 12>quite some time.

0:40:55.120 --> 0:40:57.080
<v Speaker 2>Is it telling you to pick up Nvidia? It's down

0:40:57.080 --> 0:40:59.560
<v Speaker 2>about two point four percent following last night's earnings, which

0:40:59.760 --> 0:41:05.399
<v Speaker 2>by many accounts they surpassed expectations. So what's your take

0:41:05.440 --> 0:41:07.439
<v Speaker 2>on that you own it? I believe in your flagship fund.

0:41:08.200 --> 0:41:10.200
<v Speaker 12>We do. We've owned it for quite quite a long time.

0:41:10.200 --> 0:41:11.719
<v Speaker 12>We've gotten to write it. I think we were buying

0:41:11.719 --> 0:41:13.360
<v Speaker 12>it around one forty a share and now it's up

0:41:13.400 --> 0:41:15.560
<v Speaker 12>you know, four hundred and something and we're still riding it.

0:41:15.600 --> 0:41:17.279
<v Speaker 12>I think it's a great company. I think it's going

0:41:17.320 --> 0:41:18.200
<v Speaker 12>to do really really well.

0:41:18.400 --> 0:41:20.480
<v Speaker 2>Oh did you buy on the dip last night? Would

0:41:20.560 --> 0:41:21.800
<v Speaker 2>you guys buy.

0:41:21.400 --> 0:41:21.759
<v Speaker 6>On the dip?

0:41:21.920 --> 0:41:24.040
<v Speaker 12>We already had plenty we've got we're loaded up on it,

0:41:24.200 --> 0:41:26.399
<v Speaker 12>and so we're pretty we're pretty full on a video

0:41:26.400 --> 0:41:28.200
<v Speaker 12>we you know, we also like AMD. We've been loading

0:41:28.280 --> 0:41:30.480
<v Speaker 12>up on AMT too. But I think going into twenty

0:41:30.480 --> 0:41:32.480
<v Speaker 12>twenty four, with the way these companies are, you know,

0:41:32.800 --> 0:41:35.480
<v Speaker 12>are positioning themselves, I think it could be quite exciting.

0:41:36.160 --> 0:41:37.799
<v Speaker 2>Where don't you want to be right now? Just got

0:41:37.800 --> 0:41:38.840
<v Speaker 2>about fifteen seconds.

0:41:40.160 --> 0:41:42.480
<v Speaker 12>You know, I'm not really thrilled about international equities right

0:41:42.520 --> 0:41:44.480
<v Speaker 12>now at place they work in international markets. I think

0:41:44.520 --> 0:41:47.799
<v Speaker 12>our domestic markets are much more interesting and much more

0:41:47.840 --> 0:41:50.200
<v Speaker 12>powerful and a lot more interesting, reliable.

0:41:50.320 --> 0:41:51.600
<v Speaker 2>And it's funny if you go back a few months

0:41:51.640 --> 0:41:54.080
<v Speaker 2>with a lot of guests saying international international, get out

0:41:54.080 --> 0:41:56.800
<v Speaker 2>of the United States. Vance Howard have a great Thanksgiving.

0:41:56.840 --> 0:41:59.879
<v Speaker 2>He's CEO and portfolio manager at Howard Capital Management. Joining

0:41:59.920 --> 0:42:02.640
<v Speaker 2>us us on the phone in Texas. All right, you

0:42:02.640 --> 0:42:05.760
<v Speaker 2>are listening and watching Bloomberg Business Week, can master Tim Stanovic?

0:42:06.040 --> 0:42:07.280
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0:42:08.320 --> 0:42:12.960
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0:42:13.120 --> 0:42:16.840
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0:42:20.520 --> 0:42:23.840
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