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Speaker 3: Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: All right, folks, speaking of headlines, it's been fast and
Speaker 2: furious over the last almost five days, and we finally
Speaker 2: have an answer to will he or won't he? And
Speaker 2: we are talking about Sam Altman because he is returning
Speaker 2: to lead Open AI. If you're keeping track. It's been
Speaker 2: fewer than five days after he was pushed out of
Speaker 2: one of the world's most valuable startups, setting off a
Speaker 2: shock back and forth trauma that transfixed Silicon Valley, and
Speaker 2: I got to be honest, all of us and certainly
Speaker 2: the global AI industry just kind of watching the play
Speaker 2: by play here.
Speaker 1: Okay, not everything is exactly the same as last Friday
Speaker 1: before Altman was fired. There are some governance changes. There's
Speaker 1: going to be an initial board. It's going to be
Speaker 1: led by Brett Taylor, the former co co of Salesforce.
Speaker 1: Larry Summers is going to be a director, Thearry's former
Speaker 1: US Treasury Secretary. Also, we should note a paid contributor
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg TV and existing member Adam DiAngelo, the co
Speaker 1: founder and CEO of the question and answer site Cora.
Speaker 2: All right, so let's get two guys who've been all
Speaker 2: over the story of the last one hundred and twenty hours.
Speaker 2: Tom Giles back with us, executive editor at Bloomberg Technology.
Speaker 2: He has been NonStop, name on no fewer than thirty
Speaker 2: eight stories and headlines in the last five days, although
Speaker 2: I'm guessing there could be even more, a lot more
Speaker 2: he's on Zoom in San Francisco. Van Deep Singh is
Speaker 2: here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. He's senior Tech
Speaker 2: industry analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. P two has authored a
Speaker 2: handful of reports in the last few days about the
Speaker 2: implications of this drama. So you guys are in the
Speaker 2: thick of it, Hey, Tom, let me start with you.
Speaker 2: Was this the best outcome?
Speaker 4: Well, if you're Microsoft it, you know certainly they are
Speaker 4: a winner in this equation. This is a company that
Speaker 4: is the biggest shareholder in open Ai, and they were
Speaker 4: also poised to hire Sam Altman should when he initially
Speaker 4: was fired and then not rehired and they hired someone else.
Speaker 4: And here Microsoft said all right, well we'll take him,
Speaker 4: and suddenly about seven hundred of their seven hundred and seventy.
Speaker 5: Employees said well, we're going to leave too.
Speaker 4: So Microsoft comes away as a real big winner here.
Speaker 4: I'd say Sam Altman and his inner circle also are
Speaker 4: going to be big winners here in so far as
Speaker 4: they come back to open ai, and they're going to
Speaker 4: push for a real reimagining and accelerating reimagining of what
Speaker 4: this company is, what it stands for. And how quickly
Speaker 4: it pushes toward commercialization and profitability and running itself like
Speaker 4: a business. This is a company that started as a
Speaker 4: nonprofit tasked with the exploration the scientific exploration of artificial intelligence,
Speaker 4: and it certainly is still doing that.
Speaker 5: But what you've seen Sam do over the years is
Speaker 5: push it further and further into the direction of being
Speaker 5: a business and driving business that's growing, attracting investors, bringing
Speaker 5: in creating products, and lining up customers, and those things
Speaker 5: sometimes are at.
Speaker 4: Lockerheads with something that's more of a scientific philosophical approach.
Speaker 5: To the exploration of artificial intelligence, and that thing really
Speaker 5: came to a head that is firing on Friday.
Speaker 4: So now he comes back, and I think there's going
Speaker 4: to be an accelerated reimaginating, reimagining what this company is fascinating.
Speaker 2: So, Man, deeve comean and you've been writing a lot
Speaker 2: of research. Microsoft and Open Eye. Do they need each other?
Speaker 2: Why or why not?
Speaker 6: I mean, they absolutely need each other. And the last
Speaker 6: week has shown how much Microsoft is invested in AI
Speaker 6: to the point that you know they were willing to
Speaker 6: take the entire staff and you know, have them as employees. Look,
Speaker 6: I mean the original if you go back, you know,
Speaker 6: one year when Microsoft originally partnered with open EI. The
Speaker 6: idea was they wanted open Ai to use a Microsoft
Speaker 6: Azure's compute capacity. They wanted, you know, to be that
Speaker 6: early cloud player that positioned itself well in generative AI.
Speaker 6: And they did that. It worked. Then they standardize everything,
Speaker 6: you know, their co pilots their search around open AI.
Speaker 6: When you look at the competitors, Amazon and Google, the
Speaker 6: two competitors in cloud, the growth has slowed down in
Speaker 6: cloud this year because they didn't have that generative AI
Speaker 6: Open Ai aspect of it. And I think it's interesting
Speaker 6: given how much you know, Microsoft benefited this thing happening
Speaker 6: so suddenly really caught them off card and they've probably
Speaker 6: helped steady the ship. But I still think there's a
Speaker 6: lot more to common in terms of transparency why it happened.
Speaker 6: Were they any safety issues that the other board members fell.
Speaker 6: Obviously the employees didn't believe in the earlier board, so
Speaker 6: the board had to change. But I still think there's
Speaker 6: more answers that will come out in due course of time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that reporting is going to continue
Speaker 1: to trickle out. So no sleep for either of you
Speaker 1: guys over the Thanksgiving holiday, although that's not what I
Speaker 1: wish for you. Hey, Tom, come on back in here.
Speaker 1: Carol asked you about the winners here? What about the
Speaker 1: losers here? Are there any competing companies who who you know,
Speaker 1: could have had an opportunity to kind of seize the moment,
Speaker 1: But now that Altman is back at open ai, they
Speaker 1: lost that opportunity.
Speaker 4: Well, I think if you are a competing company and
Speaker 4: you were, you know, looking on Friday afternoon the minute
Speaker 4: he got fired, I am sure that he was being
Speaker 4: inundated with offers because people see him as a true visionary.
Speaker 4: They see him as the driving force behind the successes
Speaker 4: that open ai has has cranked out over the last
Speaker 4: several years, but in particular in the last year and
Speaker 4: the pace at which those are coming out. But what
Speaker 4: man Deep said was was really true. When when Microsoft
Speaker 4: partnered with open ai in such a dramatic way to
Speaker 4: the tune of ten plus billion dollars, that really catapulted
Speaker 4: them to the forefront ahead of people like Google.
Speaker 5: Companies like Google, which should have been, for all intents and.
Speaker 4: Purposes, the true leader in artificial intelligence, they had deep mind,
Speaker 4: they had their own house that this Deep Mind is.
Speaker 5: The artificial intelligence startup that they.
Speaker 4: Bought in the UK, which is really at the cutting
Speaker 4: edge of this research. They had their own in house
Speaker 4: AI effort and they just moved too slowly on generative AI.
Speaker 4: And so when you saw Microsoft really strengthen his partnership
Speaker 4: with open AI, that really lit a fire under Google.
Speaker 5: And Google remains on its back foot in all of this.
Speaker 4: And you're going to see if man Eve said, You're
Speaker 4: going to see Microsoft incorporate not only benefit from open
Speaker 4: AI because of the computing power and its use of
Speaker 4: their cloud services, but also incorporating generative AI into more
Speaker 4: and more of their products and making those products even
Speaker 4: being this search engine that none of us uses, maybe
Speaker 4: even making being more relevant. Not to mention what they
Speaker 4: do to their business products that are the real lifeblood
Speaker 4: of Microsoft's revenue stream.
Speaker 2: Come on in man No, and that's a risk, right.
Speaker 6: So if you look at the Amazon and Google approach,
Speaker 6: they want to develop their own large anglid model, and
Speaker 6: you know all their products will be driven off of
Speaker 6: their own large anguage model. Open the Eye is still
Speaker 6: an independent entity. Granted Microsoft has a forty nine percent steak,
Speaker 6: but tomorrow, if things fall apart, and you know, again
Speaker 6: Sam is back running the company, so you would hope
Speaker 6: things stabilize, but that's a big risk for Microsoft not
Speaker 6: having its own large, languid model.
Speaker 2: I feel like, you know, we kidded yesterday that it
Speaker 2: was TBD, and I still feel like there's still TBD
Speaker 2: to be you know, kind of in this story in
Speaker 2: terms of what happens with Open Eye AI in the future,
Speaker 2: or whether or not somebody big comes out and is
Speaker 2: a real challenger to that company.
Speaker 1: I don't know if there's anyone out there who.
Speaker 6: There is Anthropic, I mean, is that Open the Eye
Speaker 6: employees who started that.
Speaker 1: Carol was talking about it earlier today.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and both Google and Amazon have taken a steak
Speaker 6: in the company, so just.
Speaker 1: That So it's amazing because they're sort of like these
Speaker 1: you know, I don't want to call them ponds, but
Speaker 1: they're like these avatars of the larger companies that are duking.
Speaker 2: They used to call Tiger cubs, you know, off of
Speaker 2: you know, Tiger Management.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and the reason why Anthropic was started.
Speaker 7: Because the co founders felt.
Speaker 2: Exactly, yeah, guys, listen, we have to go We're gonna
Speaker 2: continue with this, no doubt about it, get some sleep,
Speaker 2: can't wait to see all of the research and reporting
Speaker 2: that continues to come, certainly from Tom Giles and the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Technology team, and of course mandates saying over at
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 3: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
Speaker 3: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on
Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App,
Speaker 3: or watch us Live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: To a couple of stories on the Bloomberg Today. One
Speaker 2: was about how clean energy funds are dirt. They basically
Speaker 2: slumped roughly thirty percent this year, after losing almost five
Speaker 2: percent of their value in twenty twenty two and a
Speaker 2: whopping twenty three percent in twenty twenty one. The renewables
Speaker 2: industry has been battered by rising interest rates, which have
Speaker 2: been a special damaging for new solar projects, and disappointing
Speaker 2: earnings caused largely by those higher capital costs and then
Speaker 2: lower profit margins.
Speaker 1: I don't get it for a few reasons. Yeah, we'll
Speaker 1: get into it, but we know this is the direction
Speaker 1: that things are going to go. We know that the
Speaker 1: Biden administration has unleashed a torreative funds in the Inflation
Speaker 1: Reduction Act. So anyway, you know, that's kind of confounding
Speaker 1: to me.
Speaker 2: Especially in a year that's on track to be the
Speaker 2: hottest year yet. We're not quite at the end of
Speaker 2: the year, but pretty much pointing there. So let's get
Speaker 2: to it with Rich Lesser see what he has to
Speaker 2: say about all of this, his global chair at Boston
Speaker 2: Consulting Group, headed to the upcoming Global Climate Conference COP
Speaker 2: twenty eight in Dubai. Riches on zoom in Boston. Rich,
Speaker 2: Nice to have you here with Tim and myself. It's
Speaker 2: been hard to be anything esg tell us though, specifically
Speaker 2: about companies and what they are doing when it comes
Speaker 2: to sustainability and climate change goals.
Speaker 7: So it's a pleasure to be with you, Carol and Tim. Look,
Speaker 7: I think corporate efforts on climate and sustainability continue to
Speaker 7: move forward. We see commitments to science based targets growing,
Speaker 7: We see investments in many places growing. Many of the
Speaker 7: leaders in this space have continued their agendas. But as
Speaker 7: your intro pointed out, it is a more challenging time,
Speaker 7: particularly in the US, because of the various uncertainties the
Speaker 7: economics and particularly interest rates and the recent baut of inflation,
Speaker 7: which is coming down but still left capital more expensive,
Speaker 7: the political uncertainties inside the US, the regulatory uncertainties with
Speaker 7: the SEC proposal. So while it's encouraging to see the
Speaker 7: actions of a number of companies, we do not have
Speaker 7: as much broad based action as we need from governments
Speaker 7: or from businesses at this point. Obviously, IRA is a
Speaker 7: bright spot in that, as is some of the actions
Speaker 7: in Europe and other countries. We have a long way
Speaker 7: still to go, and we're not on track for what
Speaker 7: the world needs.
Speaker 1: So what gets us on track for what the world's
Speaker 1: world needs is it sort of a whole of government approach,
Speaker 1: cooperation across different nations.
Speaker 7: Well, that will really help. I mean, we don't know
Speaker 7: what will come out of this cup, but there's some
Speaker 7: opportunities that could be substantial in energy and heavy emitting
Speaker 7: industries and food and agriculture, in finance, so there are
Speaker 7: a number of areas that could be encouraging areas of progress.
Speaker 7: I don't think we'll be at the end of the
Speaker 7: same we've solved everything we haven't been for the prior
Speaker 7: twenty seven cops, we won't be at this one. But
Speaker 7: I think we could meaningfully move forward. But then there's
Speaker 7: the actions that individual countries take, whether it's around support
Speaker 7: for new technologies, finding ways not necessarily with a carbon tax,
Speaker 7: but other ways to put a price on carbon, getting
Speaker 7: addressing permitting issues which are such an inhibitor, using government
Speaker 7: procurement itself as a lever to accelerate progress. And then
Speaker 7: there's a lot of corporate actions that are possible, not
Speaker 7: just inside the four walls of the individual company, but
Speaker 7: what it does in its supply chain, how it supports
Speaker 7: it customers, how it works together with others in their sectors,
Speaker 7: whether it's on labeling, transparency, or finding new sources of
Speaker 7: supply for the whole sector. There are lots of ways
Speaker 7: to make progress that we're using to some degree. We
Speaker 7: need to go much further.
Speaker 2: Tell me out here, though. There are companies who put
Speaker 2: out sustainability goals, missions commitments, and then there's governments who
Speaker 2: say you got to do this by twenty twenty something
Speaker 2: or whatever, or twenty thirty or twenty forty. What is
Speaker 2: it that really ultimately moves the needle for me? It's
Speaker 2: terror I feel like it was terrifying to see some
Speaker 2: of the headlines or it'll be in New York with
Speaker 2: orange skies, or to be day after day.
Speaker 1: Worried about day based flooding in your basement because you
Speaker 1: know every three years there's sort of a once in
Speaker 1: a century exactly.
Speaker 2: Rainstorm exactly, so exactly those things terrify me and feel like, Okay,
Speaker 2: we've got to be doing something different. So what is
Speaker 2: it that ultimately moves the needle? Because I feel like
Speaker 2: commitments and goals, I don't know that you really have
Speaker 2: to ultimately abide by them.
Speaker 7: So obviously, what makes it so much easier to go
Speaker 7: faster is when doing the right thing as regards to
Speaker 7: climate and sustainability aligns closely with your own business economics
Speaker 7: to drive sustained business performance. I mean, that's the magic
Speaker 7: formula that allows everybody to invest fast. That's why things
Speaker 7: like IRA were so important because for many types of investments,
Speaker 7: it fundamentally takes the economics from a place where it
Speaker 7: didn't make financial sense to where it does. But there's
Speaker 7: still many, many parts of the economy where IRA is
Speaker 7: a step in the right direction.
Speaker 2: You're talking about the Inflation Reduction Act passed in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty two, where there was a lot of investing into
Speaker 2: domestic energy production and also the promotion of clean energy,
Speaker 2: So there was money committed to this mission.
Speaker 7: That's exactly right. The IRA bill set aside four hundred billion,
Speaker 7: but uncapped, and it will likely be much higher, both
Speaker 7: to support the broader energy transition that we need in
Speaker 7: the US, but also to support new technologies that would
Speaker 7: encourage us to lower the cost of those technologies, build scale,
Speaker 7: do other things. But still, in many, many cases, the
Speaker 7: economics aren't as clear as they need to be on
Speaker 7: shifting to new technology.
Speaker 2: The why aren't they? Why aren't they? Why aren't they?
Speaker 2: Is it because they are still more expensive? Or is
Speaker 2: it that governments.
Speaker 7: Makes still more expensive? Yeah, I mean if you're trying
Speaker 7: to make steel or aluminum or cement, or fly an
Speaker 7: airplane or do a whole range of things. The technologies
Speaker 7: that would allow you to decarbonize now exist, but those
Speaker 7: technologies are often substantially more expensive than the technologies build
Speaker 7: around the basic fossil fuel economy. The good news is
Speaker 7: IRA has fundamentally changed that economic equation for some of
Speaker 7: those things. That's why you see so much investment coming
Speaker 7: into the US from US companies but from around the world.
Speaker 7: It was a very meaningful bill, but we need to
Speaker 7: be ready to go further. And I think that if
Speaker 7: we can go further, we can accelerate progress. And I
Speaker 7: think cop is one of the opportunities on everything from
Speaker 7: food and agriculture to the leakage of methane to heavy
Speaker 7: industries that are really challenged to decarbonize, where we need
Speaker 7: agreements and we need the world to come together that
Speaker 7: we need to make it easier. Just as a final point,
Speaker 7: a lot of the challenge will be in the global South,
Speaker 7: will be in low and middle income countries. That if
Speaker 7: it's hard for play the richer part of the world
Speaker 7: to afford the capital and deal with inflation, you can
Speaker 7: imagine how hard that is in other parts of the world.
Speaker 7: And there's a lot that we can do to make
Speaker 7: the financing easier and make it more affordable to accelerate
Speaker 7: that decarbonization. And that's where a lot of carbon emissions
Speaker 7: are growing because those companies those countries are adding energy
Speaker 7: infrastructure to populations.
Speaker 1: Hey, Rich, what's the relationship between the price of a
Speaker 1: barrel of oil and investments that are made in decarbonizing,
Speaker 1: Because right now we're seeing oil at seventy six dollars
Speaker 1: a barrel compared to you know where things were, gosh,
Speaker 1: just may have come down a line, you know, may
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty two or over one hundred and twenty
Speaker 1: dollars a barrel, So explain the relationship.
Speaker 7: Look, it cuts both ways. The good news is if
Speaker 7: people are confident that oil will stay at a reasonably
Speaker 7: high price, then that makes the competing low carbon technologies
Speaker 7: look even more attractive. So in many ways, when fossil
Speaker 7: fuel prices are higher and people believe they're going to
Speaker 7: stay higher, then when they run their calculations of should
Speaker 7: we invest in lower emissions technologies, those investments look smarter.
Speaker 7: On the flip side, obviously, that helps people that are
Speaker 7: in the industry, in the energy economy, in fossil fuels
Speaker 7: at a you know, make a lot of money in
Speaker 7: that space, and some of that money has been diverted
Speaker 7: into new technologies and into decarbonizing technologies, but not as
Speaker 7: you know, we need much more, much more. We're underfinancing
Speaker 7: the global transformation by probably two trillion dollars a year,
Speaker 7: so real money needs to go into it.
Speaker 2: Just got about twenty five seconds left here, rich, So
Speaker 2: if the economy softens a little bit, will it make
Speaker 2: it even harder?
Speaker 7: Sure, uncertainty makes it harder. The more people feel confident
Speaker 7: that the economic road ahead is good, the more confident
Speaker 7: they are to invest in their future, and decarbonizing the
Speaker 7: world is probably the most important investment we need to make.
Speaker 2: All right, Gonna leave it on that note, Hey, Rich,
Speaker 2: thank you so much. Happy Thanksgiving. Rich Lesser, he's global
Speaker 2: chair at Boston Consulting Group, and as we mentioned earlier,
Speaker 2: headed to the upcoming Global Climate Conference COP twenty eight
Speaker 2: in Dubai, and you certainly made some references to some
Speaker 2: of what's going to be going on there.
Speaker 3: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
Speaker 3: live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter here on
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Speaker 3: York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 1: Around one thousand nurses at hospitals in Wichita, Kansas are
Speaker 1: planning a one day strike in December over staffing issues
Speaker 1: and what they claim are unsafe conditions. Another more than
Speaker 1: five hundred nurses just outside of Chicago went on strike
Speaker 1: over what they say we're unfair labor practices and then Carol,
Speaker 1: a five day strike of more than thirteen hundred nurses
Speaker 1: in Washington ended over the weekend. They were looking for
Speaker 1: more staffing, higher pay, and better patient safety.
Speaker 2: Sounds like they want different conditions, better conditions. These strikes
Speaker 2: are all on top of the largest ever healthcare work
Speaker 2: stoppage that was happening in October when more than seventy
Speaker 2: five thousand Kaiser permanent day workers went on a three
Speaker 2: day strike accusing management of refusing to bargain in good
Speaker 2: faith over the short staffing issue. Well, needless to say,
Speaker 2: healthcare workers across the country, really around the world, to
Speaker 2: be fair, are feeling under pressure when it comes to burnout,
Speaker 2: shortage of resources, pay, and more so, Tim, you got
Speaker 2: to ask, what's the solution because we need healthcare workers.
Speaker 1: Well, there are a lot of people working to find
Speaker 1: a solution right now. Aloha McBride is EY Global Health
Speaker 1: Leader for EY. The company recently came out with a
Speaker 1: study based on more than one hundred interviews with healthcare
Speaker 1: executives and clinicians in eleven countries, and what they're trying
Speaker 1: to do is get to a better model. Aloha joins
Speaker 1: us right now on Zoom from Lansdown, Virginia. Lohaw, good
Speaker 1: to have you with us this afternoon. How would you
Speaker 1: characterize the state of the healthcare worker, not just in
Speaker 1: the US, but around the world.
Speaker 8: Thank you so much for having me on the program. Listen,
Speaker 8: I can tell you we saw these results across eleven countries,
Speaker 8: and what you were just talking about is exactly what
Speaker 8: we saw. This feeling of no control, a lack of autonomy,
Speaker 8: being burdened with administration, and really feeling a moral injury
Speaker 8: around real concerns for their patients' safety is really prevalent
Speaker 8: across the glows. I mean we're talking in every single country.
Speaker 8: We saw those themes loud and clear.
Speaker 2: So is it something in particular coming off the pandemic
Speaker 2: where the trends already starting heading into the pandemic? Give us,
Speaker 2: give us some clarity on that.
Speaker 8: We've known for a while that we were going to
Speaker 8: be seeing some workforce shortages in the healthcare arena, starting
Speaker 8: way back in probably twenty eighteen. We were beginning to
Speaker 8: project this. We were seeing some VATA that was alluding
Speaker 8: to this. Now, what happened during the pandemic was Obviously,
Speaker 8: we had large areas of the entire workforce actually leave
Speaker 8: the healthcare profession, some because of retirement, some because of
Speaker 8: this administrative burden, some because of illness, and that drove
Speaker 8: that shortage down. That combined with the fact that we
Speaker 8: are seeing an environment in healthcare now where in the
Speaker 8: younger generation of nurses and doctors don't want to put
Speaker 8: up with the way things have been for the last
Speaker 8: fifty years.
Speaker 2: Frankly, what does that mean? Wait, let me stop you
Speaker 2: other Aloha, what does that mean?
Speaker 8: Yeah? Well, so when you think about what we all
Speaker 8: know about medical school and residency, we know that there's
Speaker 8: long hours and people work long shifts. However, this generation
Speaker 8: that's coming, you know, maybe the last two generations, they've
Speaker 8: been taught work life balance, right, They've been pounded into
Speaker 8: their head this concept of you can have it all,
Speaker 8: you can work hard and play hard and have a
Speaker 8: balanced lifestyle. But when they arrive into healthcare, they see
Speaker 8: something different. It's not quite what they expect. And now
Speaker 8: we're seeing some of that come to the forefront, and
Speaker 8: we're seeing demands from healthcare workers wanting a more balanced lifestyle,
Speaker 8: wanting more career progression, wanting the ability to spend more
Speaker 8: time with their patients.
Speaker 2: So essentially, so essentially, bring on generative AI, artificial intellig
Speaker 2: in robots, because we're all, as we get older, are
Speaker 2: going to need these folks or these robots or something
Speaker 2: to help take care of us. Because I've heard this too,
Speaker 2: it's interesting to hear you say that. I was talking
Speaker 2: to a recent doctor of mine it's probably around my age,
Speaker 2: and just said this younger generation, and we both were like,
Speaker 2: we need to make these blanket statements, but they don't
Speaker 2: want to work as hard.
Speaker 1: But I think a big part of what this is,
Speaker 1: and I talk to teachers and doctors who say the
Speaker 1: same thing to me, is they see what happened to
Speaker 1: people during the pandemic who now work remotely. Yeah, they
Speaker 1: get to eat breakfast at home with their kids, they
Speaker 1: get to go pick their kids up from school because
Speaker 1: they work remotely three or four days a week. And
Speaker 1: that's not something you can do as a doctor or
Speaker 1: a nurse.
Speaker 3: Aloha.
Speaker 1: I mean I hear that complaint from teachers as well.
Speaker 1: Teachers used to tell me, oh, they have the best
Speaker 1: schedule ever because they get three months off in the summer.
Speaker 1: But now They're like, what the heck am I doing
Speaker 1: coming to school and being in the classroom five days
Speaker 1: a week when the parents of the kids that I'm
Speaker 1: teaching are only going into work two days a week.
Speaker 9: Right.
Speaker 8: And what I'll tell you is the health systems are responding.
Speaker 8: They're thinking about new roles, they're offering different programs for
Speaker 8: nurses and doctors, different career paths. They're looking at ways
Speaker 8: to which they could offer more virtual time, and I
Speaker 8: think that'll make a big difference. I also think to
Speaker 8: your point around AI and automation.
Speaker 7: You know, I was.
Speaker 8: Reading something the other day from Mayo Clinic and they
Speaker 8: estimated thirty percent of healthcare can be of the administrative
Speaker 8: tasks could be automated.
Speaker 1: What are we doing? Let's go Okay, So here's here's
Speaker 1: a question that I have for you. When as I
Speaker 1: was doing research for our interview, I came across a
Speaker 1: Bloomberg story from October that showed that the average employee
Speaker 1: sponsored employer sponsored healthcare excuse me, the employee sponsored health
Speaker 1: insurance premium for US families rose seven percent to almost
Speaker 1: twenty four thousand dollars this year. That's according to an
Speaker 1: annual KFF survey of more than two thousand companies. That
Speaker 1: compares to a one percent increase last year. We're paying
Speaker 1: more for healthcare. The employers are paying more for health care.
Speaker 1: Where in the value chain is that money going if
Speaker 1: everybody is burned out?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 8: Well, certainly labor costs have been rising, right, We've seen
Speaker 8: the statistics and they're estimated to continue to rise over
Speaker 8: the course of next year. Within the healthcare industry, and
Speaker 8: during different segments of the pandemic, we had a lot
Speaker 8: of traveling nurses on boarded into different health systems and
Speaker 8: those wages were rising tremendously.
Speaker 2: So is it all labor costs?
Speaker 8: I will say a lot of it is labor cost
Speaker 8: for sure. Certainly the cost of health care supplies is
Speaker 8: certainly adding to this burden as well, so the cost
Speaker 8: of goods, if you will, pharmaceuticals as well as medical disposables.
Speaker 8: I think we see this across the economy, right, It's
Speaker 8: not just in healthcare. Inflation has driven up the price
Speaker 8: of many things, many sectors, and healthcare is always going
Speaker 8: to get.
Speaker 2: Hit with these You talked about, you know, technology maybe
Speaker 2: helping with the administrative side. That's great. I feel like
Speaker 2: it should be a given, it should be done already,
Speaker 2: but I'm I want a clinician, you know, who can
Speaker 2: maybe work side by side with technology to make sure
Speaker 2: I get the best care. So I am a little
Speaker 2: worried about the pipeline when it comes to actually individuals
Speaker 2: that are needed. Any thoughts on that. We've just got
Speaker 2: about twenty five seconds left.
Speaker 8: Yeah, listen, I think it's a great point. We want
Speaker 8: to see, you know, starting in medical schools and nursing schools,
Speaker 8: individuals getting trained on what to understand about AI and
Speaker 8: digital health and technology. We want to see those digital
Speaker 8: health and technology companies and healthcare provider organizations include those
Speaker 8: clinicians in the development of all of these new technologies
Speaker 8: to ensure their fit for purpose for these clinicians who
Speaker 8: have to use.
Speaker 5: Them and work with them.
Speaker 2: Well, thanks so much for your time, Happy Thanksgiving, aloa aloha.
Speaker 2: McBride ey, Global Health Leader. Joining us on zoom from Virginia.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
Speaker 3: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on
Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the.
Speaker 10: Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Everybody's pretty hungry for Thanksgiving?
Speaker 3: Is everyone?
Speaker 2: But is everybody going to really be that hungry?
Speaker 1: Are they going to be as hungry as they were
Speaker 1: before izempic? Maybe not?
Speaker 2: Uh So, winding down on this Thanksgiving Eve, our magazine
Speaker 2: team is a great story for You can find it
Speaker 2: online at Bloomberg dot com, Slash business Week, and of
Speaker 2: course on the Bloomberg terminal. It's a story that as
Speaker 2: soon as we saw it, like we want to talk
Speaker 2: about this. It adds some irony to a holiday known
Speaker 2: for high levels of food consumption. Americans are eating less
Speaker 2: these days, actually a lot.
Speaker 1: Less prescriptions for a series of drugs known as GLP
Speaker 1: one agonists. We're talking about ozempic, we go vi in
Speaker 1: the like. They quadrupled from twenty twenty to twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: and it looks like there's plenty more growth ahead for
Speaker 1: these pharmaceuticals in the US as drug maker search for
Speaker 1: even more clinical uses. Bloomberg News consumer reporter Dina Shanker
Speaker 1: joins us on zoom from New York. She wrote all
Speaker 1: about it in the context of the Thanksgiving holiday. Dina,
Speaker 1: good to have you with us this afternoon. Before we
Speaker 1: talk about what these drugs are doing and the way
Speaker 1: you're thinking about it for Thanksgiving. Talk to me about
Speaker 1: just how many prescriptions now are being written for ozempic,
Speaker 1: we go vi in the like.
Speaker 11: I mean, millions of Americans now are taking these drugs.
Speaker 11: They are up three hundred percent currently at one point
Speaker 11: eight million together for sorry A, one point eight million
Speaker 11: for ozempic, and four hundred and fifty three thousand for Wagovi,
Speaker 11: so that's two point.
Speaker 9: Two million total. And they are just getting really really
Speaker 9: popular for a lot of people.
Speaker 2: It's like off the charts. It's pretty wild. I've seen
Speaker 2: it firsthand with people who are using it or taking it,
Speaker 2: and it really does reduce their appetite in a big,
Speaker 2: big way. They're just not hungry. So I think about
Speaker 2: the impact of this Thanksgiving and that's what you write about.
Speaker 2: Talked about some of the specific people you talk to.
Speaker 11: So I spoke to four different people that are currently
Speaker 11: taking the drugs, and everyone was really happy with the
Speaker 11: changes in their life and especially what it meant for Thanksgiving.
Speaker 11: One woman I spoke to talked about not just for
Speaker 11: herself but also her children seventeen and twenty one years old,
Speaker 11: who have been taking these drugs and they have just
Speaker 11: seen not just great weight loss results, which I know
Speaker 11: everybody wants when they're taking them, but they're also just
Speaker 11: looking at their food differently. They're open to her kids
Speaker 11: are open to eating things that they weren't eating before.
Speaker 11: She so excited about how now she gets to add
Speaker 11: more fruits and vegetables to the table. And you know,
Speaker 11: she's hosting, so she's actually going to make you know,
Speaker 11: the cast roles, the green bean casserole, the sweet potato casserole,
Speaker 11: the macaroni and cheese.
Speaker 9: But she was like, I'll take a bite and then
Speaker 9: I'll send those leftovers home with my parents.
Speaker 11: She's gonna hold onto the turkey because she still wants
Speaker 11: the protein.
Speaker 9: But everyone is. Everyone I spoke to is.
Speaker 11: Thinking about the holiday differently. And another woman I spoke
Speaker 11: with she was so funny. She was talking about how
Speaker 11: she has three sons and how they complain about the
Speaker 11: the lack of snacks in the house because she doesn't
Speaker 11: make both purchases anymore right, and her snack door is
Speaker 11: really weak these days, so the kids have to put
Speaker 11: it on the list. And for Thanksgiving, she said she
Speaker 11: used to spend weeks in advance, you know, looking for
Speaker 11: the best recipes as she got her menu ready. But
Speaker 11: one of the things that these drugs do is they
Speaker 11: turn off the food noise, as it's called, so you're
Speaker 11: just not thinking about the food all the time. So
Speaker 11: she's like, I'll do She's still gonna make it everything.
Speaker 11: And she's actually even skipping her shot so that she
Speaker 11: can enjoy yourself a bit more on the holiday.
Speaker 9: But she's just not She's not thinking about food all
Speaker 9: the time.
Speaker 1: That's so interesting. I just want to cut you off here, Dina.
Speaker 1: What skipping her shot? What do you mean by that?
Speaker 1: Because these are monthly injections, right.
Speaker 9: Weekly?
Speaker 1: I believe weekly? Okay, skipping this week, So she's skipping
Speaker 1: this week, so that means she's great?
Speaker 3: Is that?
Speaker 1: But is that? I mean, I know you're not a doctor,
Speaker 1: we're not doctors here, but is that? Is that how
Speaker 1: the shot works? Is it?
Speaker 3: Is it? Like?
Speaker 11: I mean, she she thinks it's going to work for
Speaker 11: her that way. I don't know that doctors would advise
Speaker 11: people to do this.
Speaker 9: But one of the interesting things.
Speaker 11: About these shots and about these drugs is that they.
Speaker 9: Were initially actually you know, not for weight loss.
Speaker 11: They were for diabetes, and so a lot of the
Speaker 11: uses of them are off label, so because they're being
Speaker 11: used as a weight loss drug instead of as a
Speaker 11: as a diabetes drug. So I think what we're seeing
Speaker 11: both with the people using them and at the clinical
Speaker 11: level is a lot of you know, they're still studying it.
Speaker 11: They're still trying to find out all the different things
Speaker 11: that these drugs can do.
Speaker 9: So for some people they have just been incredible.
Speaker 11: Weight loss miracle drugs, as they describe them. But I
Speaker 11: should add that one of the health professionals I spoke with,
Speaker 11: a pharmacist, was really quick to make sure that we
Speaker 11: didn't discount the work that the patients are doing. That
Speaker 11: it's not just like you take your injection and you're
Speaker 11: done and the you never think about food again and
Speaker 11: the pounds start melting off.
Speaker 9: She was saying how it's really important that.
Speaker 11: People are learning how to manage their serving sizes. They're
Speaker 11: going for, you know, that walk after dinner, they're sticking
Speaker 11: it out through. Sometimes people experience really bad side effects
Speaker 11: like nausea, and they are really taking advantage of the
Speaker 11: benefits of the drug, but they're not completely relying on
Speaker 11: the drugs.
Speaker 9: Even if you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say from no, no, no. From people
Speaker 2: who are on it, you know, heard things like I
Speaker 2: just have a more awareness. Especially first of all, it
Speaker 2: does cut your appetite, and so you have an awareness
Speaker 2: of kind of what you're eating or what you're not eating,
Speaker 2: and it just kind of changes your perspective with like
Speaker 2: when you put food on your plate, you kind of
Speaker 2: look at it and like, I don't need that much.
Speaker 1: I guess what I don't understand, like, how does it
Speaker 1: motivate you to then go for a walk after dinner
Speaker 1: or Dina. Maybe it's because they are so cognizant of
Speaker 1: this weekly they.
Speaker 2: Feel better because they've lost weight and they can actually
Speaker 2: move around a little bit more.
Speaker 1: Or maybe the expense these are expensive too.
Speaker 9: Yeah, and the drug itself doesn't motivate you to go
Speaker 9: for that walk.
Speaker 3: Mack a journal about you.
Speaker 6: Let me drive?
Speaker 1: No, no, no, honey, please, I want to try.
Speaker 6: It's a good question.
Speaker 3: This is the drive to the Clothes well By on
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: All right, everybody, just about eighteen minutes left in today's
Speaker 2: trading session, getting ready to wrap up the day just
Speaker 2: before Thanksgiving. Then were markets are shut and then of
Speaker 2: course we'll reopen for a holiday shortened or post holiday
Speaker 2: shortened trading day on Friday. I am I'm going to
Speaker 2: be with Paul Sweeney from ten am Wall Street time
Speaker 2: to about two pm Wall Street time, so we'll wrap
Speaker 2: up the markets and yeah, chat a bunch.
Speaker 1: Thanks for holding down the fourt You are welcome. I'll
Speaker 1: be listening.
Speaker 2: No you won't.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well yeah, we'll be there in Cincinnati listening all right,
Speaker 1: looking forward to it.
Speaker 2: So let's get to it and our drive to the closed.
Speaker 2: Guest Vans Howard back with US CEO and portfolio manager
Speaker 2: IF the only registered investment advisor. Howard Capital Management roughly
Speaker 2: five billion in assets under management. He's also, by the way,
Speaker 2: owner op Raider with his family of the bar Sea
Speaker 2: Ranch in Madisonville, Texas. I just like that little fun
Speaker 2: fact about them.
Speaker 6: Van.
Speaker 2: It's good to have you back with us.
Speaker 12: How are you, Carol, It's always good to talk to you.
Speaker 2: Well, it's great to have you here. You're there and
Speaker 2: I think Georgia today, is that correct? No, I'm in Texas,
Speaker 2: you're you are in Texas. Okay, forgive me, forgive me.
Speaker 2: So what's easier to do right now? Run a ranch
Speaker 2: or invest in the market?
Speaker 12: Well, they're both managing money is a lot more profitable
Speaker 12: to running ranch. I can tell you that.
Speaker 1: Well, I got it. You got to tell us a
Speaker 1: little more about this. Okay, what's before we get to
Speaker 1: your thoughts on the market. What is the bar Sea ranch?
Speaker 12: Actually, we run exotics. We run zebra's, kangaroos, gimbox ors.
Speaker 12: We run about six different exotic type of breeds out there,
Speaker 12: and then we you know, raise them and sell them.
Speaker 12: And we have quite a bit of will to bease too.
Speaker 12: They're they're quite interesting and fun to to raise.
Speaker 1: Who buys zebras.
Speaker 8: Well?
Speaker 12: You'd be amazed, and a lot of people like them
Speaker 12: as you know, animals to look at, and then they
Speaker 12: put on the ranch at their farm and they're fun
Speaker 12: to view.
Speaker 2: I bet I bet they are. I bet they are.
Speaker 1: We're still remote from there, Caroll, like a little kind
Speaker 1: of petting zoo type thing.
Speaker 6: I would love.
Speaker 3: I would love.
Speaker 2: All right, So let's talk about this investment environment. Your
Speaker 2: HCM income plus fun up about sixteen percent year today,
Speaker 2: being most of its peers. Your flagship Tactical Growth Fund
Speaker 2: of twenty three percent year to date according to Bloomberg Data,
Speaker 2: that puts it in the fifty fifth percentile against its peers.
Speaker 2: What's been a good investment this year? What hasn't for you?
Speaker 12: Well, you know, it got really sloppy from you know,
Speaker 12: around July, and then the market picked back up when
Speaker 12: the FED came out. It was a little bit more
Speaker 12: you know, dovish, I guess, is what you could say.
Speaker 12: Or we had some good data that came out on
Speaker 12: the inflation front and the market shops straight back up.
Speaker 12: It's been a pretty challenging market to trade in. But again,
Speaker 12: you know, magnificent seven has been the place to be.
Speaker 12: But we're starting to see the market Carroll broaden out,
Speaker 12: like with the small cap and the Russell two thousand
Speaker 12: started to broaden out over the past couple of weeks,
Speaker 12: which is I think very optimistic going forward for the
Speaker 12: market that we're getting more players coming in and we're
Speaker 12: starting to pick up different areas of markets starting to
Speaker 12: move higher.
Speaker 2: Well, it's so funny though. We talked with our GENA
Speaker 2: Martin Adams, who said, it feels like a lot of
Speaker 2: the bad news has been factored in when you look
Speaker 2: at the corporate earnings, what they said on the calls,
Speaker 2: what they said in their releases, and that a lot
Speaker 2: of that bad news is factored in, although it could
Speaker 2: be a bit of a choppy twenty twenty four. Do
Speaker 2: you agree or do you feel like it's going to
Speaker 2: be one way our one way direction market.
Speaker 12: I think we're going to have a strong end of
Speaker 12: the year in twenty twenty three, but I think twenty
Speaker 12: twenty four, I think is going to be a great year.
Speaker 12: I think there's a tremendous amount of cash on the sidelines.
Speaker 12: We're also looking at bonds too, Carol. You know, we
Speaker 12: started actually picking up some twenty year treasuries about two
Speaker 12: weeks ago when the bond market is starting to look
Speaker 12: healthier than it has for the last eighteen to twenty
Speaker 12: four months. So you know that network bullsh and I
Speaker 12: think twenty four could be a big year.
Speaker 1: Okay. We love talking to you because you've got the
Speaker 1: HCM byline, which you've told us about a couple of
Speaker 1: years ago, at least that's when I learned about it.
Speaker 1: Explain what it is and what the signal that it's
Speaker 1: telling you right now or should be. People be buying
Speaker 1: stocks right now?
Speaker 12: They should be and the ACM by line is nothing
Speaker 12: more than an intermediate term trends system. So it's basically
Speaker 12: taking where the trends at, where it's up or down,
Speaker 12: and of course if it's down, you want to you
Speaker 12: want you want to play very very cautious, you know,
Speaker 12: move some money to cash and play it. Say, the
Speaker 12: byline went positive about two two and a half weeks
Speaker 12: ago after being negative for about I don't know, two
Speaker 12: and a half weeks. It actually dropped off. We had
Speaker 12: those nasty cell offs. But when bed came back, it
Speaker 12: corrected it, you know, straight back up, and we moved
Speaker 12: back in into a pretty good clip. But we're bullsh
Speaker 12: going forward. The byline's really really strong. That means market's
Speaker 12: really broadening out.
Speaker 2: Remind our folks who maybe didn't catch you when you've
Speaker 2: been on before, what that byline is about.
Speaker 12: Basically, it's a number of different indexes that we've averaged together,
Speaker 12: plus we have a proprietary moving average that sort of
Speaker 12: tracks those different indexes, and when the indexes start to fall,
Speaker 12: it's going to go negative and that means that we
Speaker 12: move away from the market. We side step at whether
Speaker 12: it's twenty percent, thirty or forty into short term bonds
Speaker 12: or cash. And of course, once it's positive, we go
Speaker 12: one hundred percent back in almost immediately, and you know,
Speaker 12: Marcus trend and this has been a pretty sloppy market
Speaker 12: for twenty twenty three, but it's still working and it's
Speaker 12: still working out, you know, pretty well for us going
Speaker 12: into the last you know, six to eight weeks of
Speaker 12: the year.
Speaker 1: Is there a does it tell you if there's another
Speaker 1: you know, like when would it tell you to actually
Speaker 1: move cash or move into cash? Like what would sort
Speaker 1: of the signals be that would indicate to you that, okay,
Speaker 1: we're seeing a little bit of weakness ahead.
Speaker 12: Well, the good part about it is it's not real active,
Speaker 12: and you know, anything that's too active, I think is
Speaker 12: a little bit overkill and I think you end up,
Speaker 12: you know, just doing a lot of exercise for nothing
Speaker 12: more than exercise. But when the trend goes negative, you know,
Speaker 12: it's going to give us a red light. And you know,
Speaker 12: when a trend's negative, we start moving away. So it
Speaker 12: just closes below that trend and there we are. And
Speaker 12: then when it closes back above and we come, you know,
Speaker 12: firing back in. The thing is about the markets. You know,
Speaker 12: you can have a thousand reasons it goes down a
Speaker 12: thousand reasons that it goes up, but you know the
Speaker 12: market's going to do what they do. But you have
Speaker 12: to trade what actually is happening. You can't really trade
Speaker 12: what you think is going to happen because that usually
Speaker 12: very seldom you know, plays out as well as you'd
Speaker 12: like for it too. So if the market's negative, it
Speaker 12: goes below the byline, we take the emotion out, we
Speaker 12: start moving some money to cash and short term bonds
Speaker 12: and get getting reset to some by equities. When it
Speaker 12: turns back up, what's.
Speaker 2: The sustainability of that byline? In other words, once it
Speaker 2: turns or when once it shows an indication and perhaps
Speaker 2: the opposite direction, does it stay that way or or
Speaker 2: can it shift very quickly again?
Speaker 12: It can stay that way. We've seen it go, you know,
Speaker 12: go positive for over three years. It's got a seventy
Speaker 12: two percent win rate, so you know you're looking at
Speaker 12: basically a seventy thirty So at seventy percent of the
Speaker 12: time it's right. Thirty percent of the time it's wrong.
Speaker 12: But the good part about it, Carol, is it never
Speaker 12: stays wrong. So if it's wrong for a couple three
Speaker 12: weeks and it changes back up, you can come right
Speaker 12: back into the equities, and you know you're not going
Speaker 12: to break them. I mean, if you sell Tesla and
Speaker 12: buy it back tomorrow, you're not going to break it.
Speaker 12: So you can trade them as much as you want.
Speaker 1: So the index, the HCM byline covers individual equities too,
Speaker 1: or just indexes.
Speaker 12: Now that's a quant system that we run, and we
Speaker 12: run a pretty strong quant system to try to pick
Speaker 12: out what equities and what sectors in the market are
Speaker 12: doing the best. That's one reason that we picked up
Speaker 12: the small caps, and that's when we reason we picked
Speaker 12: up the TLT. You know, the twenty year bond is
Speaker 12: because you know, two weeks ago those went positive, which
Speaker 12: is really encouraging because they haven't been positive for quite
Speaker 12: quite some time.
Speaker 2: Is it telling you to pick up Nvidia? It's down
Speaker 2: about two point four percent following last night's earnings, which
Speaker 2: by many accounts they surpassed expectations. So what's your take
Speaker 2: on that you own it? I believe in your flagship fund.
Speaker 12: We do. We've owned it for quite quite a long time.
Speaker 12: We've gotten to write it. I think we were buying
Speaker 12: it around one forty a share and now it's up
Speaker 12: you know, four hundred and something and we're still riding it.
Speaker 12: I think it's a great company. I think it's going
Speaker 12: to do really really well.
Speaker 2: Oh did you buy on the dip last night? Would
Speaker 2: you guys buy.
Speaker 6: On the dip?
Speaker 12: We already had plenty we've got we're loaded up on it,
Speaker 12: and so we're pretty we're pretty full on a video
Speaker 12: we you know, we also like AMD. We've been loading
Speaker 12: up on AMT too. But I think going into twenty
Speaker 12: twenty four, with the way these companies are, you know,
Speaker 12: are positioning themselves, I think it could be quite exciting.
Speaker 2: Where don't you want to be right now? Just got
Speaker 2: about fifteen seconds.
Speaker 12: You know, I'm not really thrilled about international equities right
Speaker 12: now at place they work in international markets. I think
Speaker 12: our domestic markets are much more interesting and much more
Speaker 12: powerful and a lot more interesting, reliable.
Speaker 2: And it's funny if you go back a few months
Speaker 2: with a lot of guests saying international international, get out
Speaker 2: of the United States. Vance Howard have a great Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2: He's CEO and portfolio manager at Howard Capital Management. Joining
Speaker 2: us us on the phone in Texas. All right, you
Speaker 2: are listening and watching Bloomberg Business Week, can master Tim Stanovic?
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